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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  February 9, 2015 5:00pm-6:01pm EST

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>> i actually have. it's one movie i have seen. i know you're referring to -- yeah. all right. listen, i just want to thank the panel for being here this afternoon, guys. and with no further delay, let's get out to melissa lee and the "fast money" gang. >> i'm melissa lee. dan nathan, brian kelly, pete. breaking in just the last hour, china ends a government investigation of more than a year. the stock is popping. we've got an analyst who says the stock could see a 25% upside. that's coming up. we start off with the search for growth. stocks like yelp, pandora, go pro are getting hit today. what is the new growth play?
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>> i don't want to steal karen's thunder because her and i i think have some similar ideas. but i'd say the housing, quite frankly. i look at the way the economy is improving and the lower rates, then you look at the backlogs, it seems to me like they've been bottled up for a while. i think some of these homeowner's have plenty of room to the upside. these numbers are strong and because of that i think housing has plenty of growth. >> where in the housing chain would you look to? >> a high flier -- let's go out a little bit different direction. i would look for something in the drone space. >> drones. >> the very cusp of the proliferation of drones in a very big way. avy avy was the only one i could
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really find. >> are you looking to initiate a position? >> there's so things that are a great product. i don't know if i'd want to own the stock. >> is it too early to own a drone stock when there are so many rules up in the air in terms of where you could use a drone? >> i don't think this is going to be a viable thing. when you think about the minute that we see this enterprise proliferation of enthrondrones they're all over the place, i think it's going to be lights out. i think it's way, way early. it's speculative. there's bull markets everywhere. we just don't even know where the play is right now. >> where is your growth play? >> chinese internet use aage isf the charts. so what i would do right here is think about -- no american company has really be able to go
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to china and do much as far as the internet is concerned. think about buying google in 2006 or 2007, it's a pretty cheap stock. i think that's the one. that's a buy on a pull-back. >> well, you know, of course bk is not going to tell you there's an awful lot of growth out there. but that being said, i kind of like the drone space, but more specifically the aerospace and defense. we talk about lockheed martin and rock well collins. and even atk. i think those areas over the next couple of years are going to see some growth. >> are you confidence to get into the space, pete? what do you think? >> for right now, i think we could still see a little bit more of that. it's the combination ecosystem. china mobile with apple. i think that combination and
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some of the numbers they've been able to put up, that combination both have growth. this is just the beginning. this was the holiday quarter, the launch of the iphone 6 and the 6 plus. i think there's growth. >> i'm actually not as bullish on that. i actually believe that when you think about it what does china mobile have 700 million users or something like that. when you think about this iphone upgrade cycle, i'm not certain there's enough people in china what would move the needle for apple where it's going to make a difference near term. let's see when that s upgrade cycle. let's see if they can continue those sorts of rate. i'm not certain. let's see in october. >> you had housing as a trade in 2015 and you got burned by it a little bit. >> burned i think would be a bit
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aggressive. >> 6% on the trade. but i got out of it. i didn't get shorted. here's what i'm concerned about with housing. i listened to the lot of the conference calls on the home builders. they talked about softness in houston. we expect that because of oil. they also talked about softness in southern california because the chinese buyers weren't there. for me the growth wasn't as strong at the end of the year. i got out of it before i got really burned. >> twitter's ceo gave this response to why twitter lost 4 million monthly ak tifr users. take a listen. >> in the upgrade from ios seven
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to eight, there -- pulled tweets down for them. and that was 3 million users. that autopolling went away in ios 8. we don't expect to goet those 3 million users back as we indicated on the call. >> if these users were thrown off twitter and not interested in chasing twitter again on an upgrade, it doesn't say the best thing about the stickiness of the platform. is that a concern? >> not at all. >> the other part is that there was a reacceleration. what did you do? how did you interpret that? >> i didn't like it. i thought carl nailed them. . it was a great question. >> it was great question and i thought it was poorly answered. you know, it's just not the sort of thing -- i think now that the stock has gone from the mid 30's to the high 40's, i think expectations are now very high.
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the monthly active number didn't rise the way that users expected it to. this quarter it didn't either. i'm not so certain lie the stock rallied when they're doing low single digits net adds. i was never long on the stock because of their potential to organically get to a half a billion or a billion users. i think this thing needs to be a part of a much larger enterprise like google. that's why i was involved in it. i sold my stock today. i think now that the expectations are high, i think they have a potential to miss. and that answer to that really good question did not make me feel better about it. >> that was a terrible answer. >> yes. >> the other answer was that there was a reacceleration in january after the ios upgrade. in terms of stickiness, people did go back and people did download twitter and get back
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on. >> they did. but i still think people are looking at this the right way where they're thinking we're going to get to a half a billion users. they're making the same mistake that blackberry did. twitter should say twitter means business and that's it and focus on those users. >> one answer. myspace. myspace focused on the users that they had. >> we all use twitter. we use it every single day and we are the people that you want to advertise to. focus on us. teach me how to use it. >> they've had a very difficult time actually getting the engagement factor into play. the one thing that i took away from the call, they've got weighways that they're pushing out in the half to get that engagement factor. even if they can't have that growth, if they get the engagement, that's where the revenue comes in for the ads.
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>> into anti-competitive practices. he's got the highest priced target on the street. alex, great to have you with us. >> thank you so much. >> have we witnessed the bottom of qualcomm. >> you're absolutely right. it was the key uncertainty. when it got down there into the 60 to $50 range, that was a dividend for a company that's been on a really impressive growth tear for a while. i know the outlook is subdued because of some questions about their exposure to samsung. however when you look at the growth trend over the past several years, what's really clear is that it's riding the 4g cycle and now it's going to tap
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ta -- capitalize on that trend in china. >> did you factor in a settlement of this magnitude? and if you did not, would that mean you're inclined to raise that price target now that this has out of the way? >> i think you're right. we were envisioning a settlement of sorts. we had long thought that mike microsoft, like intel before with the eu it would be in that billion dollar range and that's what we got. what we got today was some uncharacteristic clarity on that royalty structure. we're going to have 3.5% royal tees for 4g alone. what the good news is thats that above their corporate average. i think from $85 we should
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recei definitely be thinking higher. >> did they reserve a billion dollars or was that what you said you had anticipated in resolving this? >> we've seen settlements in this range before and we've even seen settlements in this range between technology companies. it's not unusual. and that's why in talking to ve investors -- and given the fact that we'll be using overseas cash for this, it really has diminimus impact on the way investors should be thinking about this stock. >> what is your trade on qualcomm? >> here's a company that has 30% of their market cap in cash and no debt. in some of these large cap tech names, it was the dividend yield. they also have a multibillion
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dollar share of you are chase. when you consider the fact that they have misexecuted. china was a big problem. they had 25% earnings growth in 2013 and it dropped to single didn'ts based on their issues of collecting licensing fees. the company moved very quickly to make him their new ceo when he was on the short list for microsoft. i don't know. he seems like he could be pushed around a little bit by activists. >> to do what? to return cash? >> to return a lot more cash. if they're not going to get the growth, might as well be buying back more shares. >> got a greek drama today. plus the power of the consumer giving new life to some left for dead retail names. and former quarterback brett favre will join us to discuss the new social network he is backing. that's coming up. vestors! vectorvest mobile is here and it's free!
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. welcome back to "fast money." let's kick things off with urban
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outfitters. and an -- that exceeded analyst' estimates. those sales rose at urban out t outfitters and anthropology. gap stores down about three % driven by weakness at the gap stores themselves. it expects shares to be 73 to 74 curre cents per share. arroieropostal is about 200,000 shares of value. it's now anticipating a smaller than expects q 4 loss per share.
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mark miller is going to be the new cfo. >> you own gap? >> i do. what a bummer to own the only one down out of the three. but i do. it's down 30 cents. this is a turn around story. they have a new ceo in place. the gap brand seems to be the problem here. i like it. i think they can turn it around. i don't think it's expensive. they have a balance sheet to do it. they have the time to do it. >> the drama in debt strapped greece continues to weigh. the complicated love story of mythological creatures cupid and psyche. in this situation greece is psyche and europe is cupid. we've got the trade school on what would happen and how he is playing it. >> just what greece and euro
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zone needs, a little more complication with the mythology. everybody's putting out their most dire predictions. that's fine. you go behind closed doors and you resolve things. however, let's just say they over play their hand. let's say greece over plays their hand. here's what could go wrong and what you need to know. number one, greece over plays their hand and you end up with a bank run in greece. then that means greece has no money left. that bank run then actually could lead to -- if greece leaves the euro zone, the biggest part of the euro zone and being in the euro is that it is irrevocable. all of a sudden the euro becomes revocable. market participants will look to other countries saying where else could this happen. that moves that bank run to probably italy, possibly to
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spain. i don't know if that's going to happen, but you need to watch this. if everything goes to the middle, everything goes to germany and the euro zone fractures. look for a significantly lower euro. if you see the euro diving, that's going to be your first sign there's a real problem out there. number two, look at german yields, if they start to go recorder low because they're all right at record lows,s th s tht problem. if you can't get your money out of the lit italy, spain, greeceu buy gold. i bought some gld today. i'll short more of the euro. >> with more on what the future could hold for greece, let's bring in the dennis garvin. you think that greece should leave? do you think that greece will leave, though?
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>> first of all, if i were cyprus, i would leave, i would absolutely throw down the gauntlet. i would walk away and say you're trouble. i'm going to watch my tourist trade rally violently. i'm going to watch my shipping business get better. yes, you'll keep me away from the capital markets for five or six months. the russians had had problems. they came back. if we've learned anything from history, it's bankrupt individuals and bankrupt countries always come back to the capital markets eventually. if i were cyprus, i would say i'm done, i've had it, i'm pulling out. i don't think he will, however, because i don't think the germans will allow it. it works to germany's advantage to keep greece in the euro at all costs, because it keeps the euro weak. it makes germany far more
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competitive in the world market. greece doesn't need the euro, as far as i'm i agree that germany the euro much more than greece does. let's see what happens if russia gets in here. they don't have any money, but they just borrowed money from china. where would you look to see that happening? >> this is interesting because russia and greece are both orthodox countries so therefore you have a religious circumstance. not enough people understand the russians are actually looking to do something to help the greeks because of that religious circumstance and because of the geopublics involv geopolitics involved. i wouldn't be surprised if putin is already moving his troops on
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the eastern borders, i wouldn't be surprised if putin does something relatively ugly to separate greece and make russia look like the champion in that circumstance. not enough people are understanding what's going on there. >> bk had mentioned being long gold. it sound like you don't believe -- even though greece should want it, it sounds like you don't believe that it will happen. would you still be long gold? >> yeah. i think under these circumstances you want to be long of gold in euro terms. i think the he's absolutely correct. you want to be long gold short the euro in most circumstances right now. i think that's going to continue to work. it's been working for months and months. the easiest way to acome date that is to go by geeuro. you look at the chart. you've had a very swift rise in
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gold predicated in euros. you had a couple of days of correction. buy gold in euro terms, absolutely. >> would you rather -- >> uh-oh. >> gold or gold minors? >> i'd rather with the gold minors still. that started back in november. you look at new mine. you look at a lot of these names, there has been paper floating in there for a long time. >> coming up next what american airlines said that sent the entire sector lower on the day. and find out if anyone is buying on the dip. the one name that is making big moves, stick around, back in two. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 [ male announcer ] your love for trading never stops,
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. . the major airplanlines kick off our top trade. the airline also raising its fuel cost guidance. pete. >> right. and if you look at these, every time we've seen oil moving to the upside, lot of people are concerned about that. i still think this is an oil trade. a lot of people will disagree with that. i think it trades so much with oil right now. today we watched the price of oil going to the upside. they also talked about american specifically raised some of their fuel costs by about a dime give or a take. when you look at these numbers, though, look at where oil came from until now. i know about the pricing power as well. talk to anybody within the airline industry, oil prices are what drives them.
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>> you have to believe there's a bottom in oil for you to believe that the airline trade is over? >> the way it's been trading, yes. i think this is a big warning sign. when you look at some of the other economic figures out there, we saw a deceleration in january. this to me is the c-- >> at the time i felt very strongly. these carriers, you know, we have three basically. it's a monopoly now. and not all of them are created equal. to think that -- >> they're not asking me. >> to think that lower oil was a layout for all of them, today is great example of why that's not the case. and you talk about pricing pressure. if people right-hand turn flying, it doesn't really matter a whole heck of a lot. >> we'll hear from one of the names at the forefront of this
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battle. and later, the man, the myth, the legend, brett favre joins us to talk his latest foray into the social media game. we choose to carve our own path, in the pursuit of exhilaration. the 306 horsepower lexus gs. experience the next level of performance, and there's no going back.
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♪ still ahead on "fast money" the nasdaq in times square. reports earnings on wednesday, tesla could see a big move on the numbers. and a social media site that's got brett favre fired up. the former quarterback joins us live with all the details. ali baba is expanding its ecosystem. the phone ultimately cost the company $170 million. ali baba did recent drone tests in china. shares down 17% year to date. so is following amazon's lead
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the best move? >> i don't know necessarily that it's the best move. i understand why they're doing what they're doing. they wanted any kind of exposure they can. the ecosystem is all about mobile. everybody is talking about how they're going to grow and it's got to be in mobile. very small when you look at the actual dollar amount, 500 or $600 million to them is nothing. if you go back to the amazon example with fire, it did nothing -- >> no one. no one. this seems like all the worst parts of amazon. the fire -- >> all the regrets. >> maybe the tablet. remember they had that very brief flirtation with the tablet? those are all the parts of amazon that amazon could get away with because they are amaz amazon. >> right. >> one big difference, though, between these two companies. ali baba is in the business
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of -- amazon for all intents and purposes is a big logistics company too. they did $29 billion in sales in q 4. outstanding. the problem was they only made 220 million dollar in net income on that. i think if american investors are going to start comparing the two, i don't think it makes a whole heck of a lot of sense. they need to get business to business. they need people that are 2000 miles away to transact -- >> can i ask you this? do a lot of chinese have land lines in rural places? maybe this is a totally different democrgraphic sort of thing that we don't know about. >> there's so many other cheap plays. >> all things being equal, do
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you want to see ali baba going into the phone market? absolutely not. the main reason why i like them is i don't think the chinese government is going to let them fail. simple as that. >> time now for pops and drops. big moves of the day. drop for mcdonald's. >> that was obviously disappointing. when you look at where they failed, there was a lot of areas that failed. but u.s. being up a half a percent. they sold off the stock. stock had too much of a run. i think you wait until it gets towards 90 again. then it's a buy. >> the opposite of everything that happened in matel last week, they had boys' toys that were great. disney deal "frozen" is good. what is not to love there?
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>> via come up 2%. >> maybe they're reinvigorating, you know, a chan chinese here and maybe this thing has legs on all the things that karen just mentioned that are working well for disney. and obviously licensing and that sort of thing. viacom is a really cheap stock. it holds at 65, maybe it's a guy. >> alcoa down 6%. >> tough day for them you have a company that most of the good stuff is already in there. we know that the ford f 150 is all aluminum. for now, i think alcoa is challenged. it would not surprise me if this stock turns down to close to 11. >> japan is making humanoid
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rober robots for a hotel. there's more to the job description for manual labor. the humanoids will also be multilingual. >> it could be very popular. >> time now for unusual activity. williams company -- >> when you talk about williams, wmb, this was interesting today because february 45 calls were not that long ago for a dollar. they took them off for a huge profit. sold them for $2.45. 66,000 of the february 48 calls were then bought. when a trader makes money on a trade like this and still wants to be a little bit more, that's something that's very enticing to me.
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>> regulas falling sort of its hepatitis c. plus, brett favre joins us with his latest social media endea r endeavor.
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♪ regulus therapeutics dropping 7% today. while the results do look promming long-term, fellow hep c drug maker reporting eradication with its drug. let's bring in regulus ceo and president. thank you both for being here. let me ask you this because we juxtapose your story with the aki akill ion story. >> the regulus drug is unique on multiple fronts. it's unique because it's the
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strongest, most long acting. we've having one sort of the rgo and one on top of a combination with oral direct anti-virals. we think you can increase compliance and reach a very spectacular cure rates. >> i think it's interesting. you used this word spectacular at the conference today. your stock is down 70% and earlier even more than that. i wonder if you could illuminate what is different about this regimen, why people seem to like it so much. >> it's different because of the unique mechanism of action. you're targeting the factor and not directly the virus. it's difficult for the virus to
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escape and create the mute any. it's different because it's very long acting. we've seen effects that last five months. it is also different because of it versatility. we can combine it with any direct ain't virnti-viral. and finally because of of its potency and its splimplicity. you go do the doctor and get a prescription of four to six weeks of a direct anti-viral. you're going to have some very high cure rates. >> they said they viewed your drug as a core treatment to be used in combination with other drugs. is that where you see the most potential? >> yes, i do. because in combination with lot of the drugs in development on the market, it can be a potential game changer in symim.
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>> the point melissa was making earlier, this idea that they came out with some great data. we just saw merck get its break through get rescinded. people seem to think that there's no more room in the hepatitis c for a new player. >> let me remind you that there's 185 people infected with hep c world wide. there's a tremendous amount of space and opportunity here. we frankly think -- and this is why i used the word spectacular on so many occasions and this is why the analysts were supportive. we think our data create the basis of a drug that can be
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combined with any anti-viral and change the treatment. it's the simplicity, it's the versatili versatility. >> thanks so much for joining us. the ceo of regulus. if you were in the space, where would you go? >> lovely you guys were able to present today. and the analyst community sound very very positive. i think the concerns would be the huge short interest in the company right now. that would be amy concern as well. i'd look to merck and some of these other names but i'd like to have a piece here. >> you know who has a piece of it? i was looking at the holders. when you talk about that short interest, i'm actually less concerned about it. when you think about 30% of the
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shares outstanding they have the potential for a massive short squeeze. >> we've got a legend in the house. the man with the most passing yards in nfl history throwing his hat into the social media ring. find out how a brett favre backed website is connecting athletes with their fans. there's confidence. then there's trusting your vehicle maintenance to ford service confidence. our expertise, technology, and high quality parts mean your peace of mind. now you can get the works, a multi-point inspection with a synthetic blend oil change, tire rotation, brake inspection and more. $29.95 or less. dad: he's our broker. he helps looks after all our money. kid: do you pay him? dad: of course.
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. tesla is set to report earnings on wednesday after the bell. the options market is implying the stock would move as much as 7%. so in which direction? >> as you know, i don't know which direction it's going. i will tell you this. today when it's 7% implied movement in either direction. that's actually been the average over the last four quarters. the stock is obviously a very big mover here. when the stock was about 2.15 a trader sold. they're calling a bullish in the stock before these earnings are coming up. this is a bit of a freebie here. this is a triangle of something here. and the stock has just gotten back to this up trend or the
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down trend that it's been in since september. when you think about the trade into earnings, you have to be careful here, because obviously there was some news about china deliveries. they weren't great. that send the stock down to the low 180s. i'll make one other point. this is the implied volatility, the price of ochgptions over th last year. i think that china news last month has taken some of the mystery out of the report. so if you're looking to protect long, actually long premium structures could help to protect your stock. >> it is no secret that tleeaths are all over social media. social network score helps athletes large and small build and monetize their digital brand while giving fans direct access to their favorite stars.
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joining me is brian and legendary quarterback brett favre. guys, great to have you with us. >> thanks for having us. >> thank you. >> brett, we are sorry that you couldn't be here in the studio with us. we understand the weather got the best of your travel plans. what attracted you to score. >> first and foremost, brian came down probably four years ago and made a proposal. we really hit it off right away. i liked his idea. couldn't tell you if it would take off or not, but i thought it was a great idea that could enable the fans to be up close and more personal with athletes and kind of get a perspective from the athletes' point of view. maybe a picture of you riding on a bus to a game or what a pregame maeal looks like prior o
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a championship game. there's endless things that can be done with the website, but that's to me what was kind of intriguing. >> brian, where does score fit in this a landscape where there is twitter and facebook and instagram and so many other ways to share exactly what brett was talking about? >> i think our competitive advantage is our specificity. what i believe when i started the company was that there was going to be this unbundling that would occur and people are going to become more focused on these interest based networks. from our platform everywhere we monetize we do revenue share with the athlete so we create opportunities for them that didn't exist anymore. from the fans' perspective we deliver a really rich and engaging experience that you get everywhere. when patrick peterson from the arizona cardinals liked a posti
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made, i thought that was really cool. >> you're a board member too so clearly you're on score more than any social media network. have you given up twitter, have you given up the others for score? and are your friend doing the same? >> i think it's sort of a snowball effect. i guess to answer your question, no, but that's not to say that wouldn't happen. score obviously is new and upcoming. it has taken off way faster. brian could probably give you the numbers better than i could, but way faster than we had, i guess, dreamed it would have. and athletes, not just your notable faces, but athletes from all over the world in sports that i didn't even know existed have signed up on score. and you know at some point i think -- you know, i don't know
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that, to answer your question. i don't know if the others will be eliminated. i think there's room for all quite frankly. >> brian, real quick, amateur athletes have far different restrictions on them. how does that affect some of the -- i mean, college athletes cannot be part of this rvegs is that correct or incorrect? >> we're for everyone so we're the amateur athlete. we're talking about having the athlete make score their profile of record. when they're young, a lot of the athletes want to be pros. we tell them start building your brand, start building your marketing. someday you'll be able to be paid. we actually have a piece in our product and platform we built for all the athletes for crowd funding. it's integrated in the platform. they can raise money for their charities and raise money for the potential athlete who has a
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newly defined amateur status going pro. >> how about your jersey being retired? what do you have to say about that? >> well, very exciting. you know, it almost has -- and i told numerous people this. it almost has the feeling of prior to a game, this nervous anticipation. i went up to green bay maybe a month and a half or two months ago for a brief appearance for bart starr in place of him. and the reception was unbelievable. i got goose bumps. i'm looking forward to it. i know as it gets closer, there will be this huge amount of nervous energy that i have. but i really am looking forward to it. >> all right, guys. thank you so much. brian, thank you so much. >> thank you. >> and brett, congratulations on
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your induction to the green bay packers hall of fame. >> thank you. >> you're skeptical of everything. >> no, no, no. first of all, i'm a huge brett favre fan. i think that these will be tuck-ins to some of these other existing social medias. i would not expect score to displace twitter or something like that right now.
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. time for the final trade. >> bk is buying gold. i'm actually shorting the banks. >> if you don't like bk's gold buy, then protect yourself with lion tech, atk, aerospace and defense. >> my jersey was retired as well. >> really? >> yes. i mean, nobody bought it. you know, it was exciting. sam ed sison, still like it. >> it was fun to have brett favre. one of the best quarterbacks i've ever seen. tell you what having a great
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career, great couple of weeks, these chemical names, oln is going higher. >> i'm melissa lee. thank you so much for watching. see you back here . my mission is simple is. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors place always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer much welcome to "mad money." other people want on the make friends i'm just -- i'm just trying to make you a little money. tell me something. where the heck is it written that a better economy is bad for stocks? how did this short-sighted piece

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