and wish you all a happy valentine's day. thanks for joining us on this friday. >> i have to go. i have some shopping to do. >> you have been discovered. now we know the secret of your success as well. that does it for us on "closing bell." "fast money" begins right now. >> "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking the market square. i'm sara eisen in for melissa lee. here's what's coming up on "fast." alibaba releasing into kor son dense. we'll break down the china trade. and netflix closing up 2% today after one analyst said the company would be making a $5 billion bet on content. but we'll start with today's record breaking market move. u.s. stock at all-time highs.

the s&p 500 and the russell 2000 closing above high levels. and major flows showing europe becoming the new darling for investors with more than 15 billion pouring into european stocks over the last five weeks. so the question is, what's the better buy right now? u.s. stocks at a record or european stocks where the money is flowing? you've been right on this. you're up. >> and mike hart is the one bringing up this da tap. st very important. remember last year, europe was a major underperforming. 22 22% in currency terms. in terms of relative performance, that's a 2.5 standard deviation move. what does that mean? yesterday was the big outlier. about 950 basis points in the last six weeks means that i think germany still has something to go. remember last night they reported gdp data.

backward looking. well, okay. >> mostly driven by germany. >> but if you think about where europe is right now with their currency and the tail winds i think they have and the other things i've been saying about europe and germany is you have momentum growth versus the s&p which i think is four or five. you have a major valuation discount which a around 20%. to me this is relative value. this is also fund flow. $15 billion in the last five weeks. significantly still underallocated. >> we should note that european stocks did close at a seven-year high. >> they've been doing quite well as long as you're also short that euro too. that's a big component of it as well. listen. given the choice between the two, i guess i would rather go in europe. just because the u.s. is such a hard buy here. the other thing i would say is what's interesting about this, if we continue to get these flows, remember most of this year the back half of '14 and into this year, you've had money flowing into the u.s. if you get a reversal of that

trade, that could have significant impact on the assets here in the u.s. including bonds, including the u.s. stock market. >> here's the difference to me, what it sounds like, that european data is coming in worse. but expectations are lower and if you're looking for the quantitative easing it's there. >> i don't think in europe that greece is fully factored in. they can't be because they're not there yet. but if you really look at this as tim said, it's out-performed. we broke some major resistance today in the s&p and iwm. it's going to be in the dow next week if there's follow through. i think you could play catch-up here in the states as well. >> do you like european bonds as much as u.s. bonds? >> let's talk about the u.s. bond market quick. >> i don't know those yields are not going your way. >> it's been hard to remain in bonds. which i still am. but i have to respect the fact that the price action over the past two weeks has been really poor. we mentioned the russell so i'll

mention it. iwm, one of the things i say all the time is the market doesn't give you a long time to buy the lower and sell the highs. the fact we're at effect ifrly 52 weeks high in the russell, the iwm leads me to believe we will close above and take it to the next level. >> that brings us to today's chart of the day. this is a good one. brian kelly is making his way to the smart board with a look at what the dollars move may be. did you do this just for me? >> just for you, absolutely. when you look at the dollar, this is the dixie index which is our dollar average intex. it is heavily weighted. but this is a long-term chart. i think it's important to put it in perspective when we talk about massive dollar moves. we've had a massive dollar move. no doubt. we put it in perspective since back since '72 when things really, really -- when we had the currency start to float. let's call it the '92 to '97 area has been a major pivot

point for the dollar. in other words, big moves happened above it and also acted as resistance. so here we are today. we're coming right into that area where roughly around '95 on the dixie we're getting around to where people start making changes. now let's look at the shorter term. here's the rally in the u.s. dollar since may. nice big regression channel, but notice this. it is now poked above a two standard deviation regression channel. what does that mean to the non-math geeks out there? you expect this move to happen less than 5% of the time. so this january high is now an important high. more often than not you start to see the dollar weaken. we are seeing a little deterioration in the u.s. economy. consumer sentiment today was weaker than expected. that may also lead into weaker jobs. i'm not saying the world is falling apart, i'm just saying you have the potential for a weaker dollar. things are starting to line up

that way. it's a caution flag. >> what's your timeline on this and what are your levels? because the dollar's rally is something that took a year and a half to begin to rally up. ty agree we've been struggling there for two weeks. i think it continues to go higher. what are you targeting here? >> i would say this is a correction within a larger bull market. i would say it's the next 60 to 90 days as we dodge some of the news here. and what we just talked about. the money flowing back over to europe. it wouldn't surprise me at all if we got to the high 80s on the index. if you start to look at the u.s. dollar/yen. >> that's a big move. >> and currency markets are very diversified now. it's hard to talk about them just adds one dollar block. >> we're going to move on from the dollar to oil. oil rallying today after the latest u.s. rig count data showed a drop in oil production and oil's not the only commodity

moving higher. let's get to today's fast fund segment. how would you play the commodity move with etfs? is that a bottom here? >> this is something i've been saying. i said three or four weeks ago we're in that place. but if you listen to brian tonight, also a great time to be buying minors. what it outperformed today was the entire mining space. how do i place this? to me the etf which gives you a chance to essentially get a lot of that. it gives you aluminum, steel, coal, iron ore. also some things so bombed out that to me i'm starting to see a bomb even iron ore prices at 56 bucks a ton. >> guy? >> gdx. actually went up on the day. and if b.k. is right about the dollar, you will see a move in gold. i do think there's something going on in gold. i think the miners are levered.

you're getting on me. you said brian it's tim. you're five feet away from him. don't think i didn't catch that, hash tag. maybe this crude move to the upside is for real. >> you have a way to play it, grasso? >> it's an ultra short etf. this is not one you leave overnight a lot. b.k. got up at the board talking about a dollar. everyone's been long dollar, short oil. there's a good chance you run into resistance on both sides. >> i go for the agriculture space. dba. it's something we haven't talked about it a lot. if you look behind a line, it's all about what can happen with ukraine. >> all right. let's move on. we've got some news on the latest position held by hedge fund heavyweights. green light capital. dom chu back at hq looking through the breakdown. >> that's right.

this is all of these 13 f filings for the fcc. every quarter have to disclose their holdings. the caveat here, this is all on a 45-day lag. this is all december 31st data. take wit a grain of salt. third point, he announces new stakes in aig, also allergan, emc, phillips 6 6, citi group, and delta air lines. he also boosted had his stake in ebay, sun edison, and american airlines group. they cut their stake in petroleum. so that oil trade playing out again. and they are completely out of fed exshares. so interesting moving here. third point, we move on to appleoosa is getting out. they've at least reduced their stake in american airlines group as well as priceline. they have completely dissolved, gotten out of their positions in facebook as well as alibaba.

also cvs and citigroup as well. and they've gotten out of their halliburton stake completely. and we'll end on green light capital, david einhorn. they've reduced their position in etna by more than half. they've also reduced their position in apple by about half a million shares. they've taken a new position in time warner. a lot of these coming through here, the first few appaloosa, green light. we'll bring more details but for right now big money managers disclosing. >> thanks, dom. grasso, what stands out to you here? >> darko getting out of that position and into phillips. you look at the refining market, there are 30% across the board these refiners. and there's not -- i can't give you a good reason to sell them right now other than they're up 35%. but he's moving out of the company and getting into refiners. i think that's the place to be when you look at the energy sect

per. >> phillips 66. a huge 2014 for the most part. obviously the back end like all over energy companies, it got whacked. but it has bounced. 60 was the level we held in 2013. jpmorgan just raised their price target to 79. the timmy's right about energy and that does continue to move up to the side, px is interesting the me. >> we'll look at those filings as they come out. also ahead, cyber warfare. catching the eye of apple ceo tim cook. what cook said and how to play the space. next. and netflix making a $5 billion bet on content. what does that mean for amazon or hbo? that's all coming up on "fast."

. apple ceo tim cook and president obama heading up a cyber security summit. apple's stock rising after cook said the government would be accepting apple pay. have a listen to what he had to say. >> we can bring about a future that fully embraces both privacy

and security. we must get this right. history has shown us that sacrificing our right to privacy can have dire consequences. with apple pay, we put in place a mobile payment system that is significantly more secure than the old days of the plastic card and the magnetic stripe. this is another product where security wasn't an afterthought. security was part of the reason we developed the technology in the first place. >> that was tim cook. guy, i thought he was a little fired up there on the privacy. >> that was fired up? i mean, thank god he's a good ceo because he's not going to make it as a public speaker. that was brutal. >> or maybe he was trying to express a point. >> he did it well. maybe we'll have him on one day. but we've been talking about

cyber security for awhile. in the stock that's performed the best has been palo alto networks. another all-time high today. a lot of vandals have shot against it. they've been wrong. he said brokeout yet, he was right. up 6% today. the cheapest one in the space is symantec. you ask me how to play et, palo alto first, symantec second. fireeye third. >> the key to that story was i think the cash flow burn is becoming less extreme. this is a company that everyone knows there's tremendous competition around him. i think it's interesting. i wish i had bought it yesterday. >> the okay. >> fireeye was the one going into the earnings that i thought would get to 40 and that's where he pulled back. i'm hard pressed to go out there and buy it first thing in the morning. i wait for a pullback. >> next up we've got alibaba falling slightly here after

hours after saying that the s.e.c. is requesting information on regulators. alibaba says it's complying and being transparent on that request. earlier alibaba's executive jack ma giving a reality check in a letter saying not to accept the typical red envelope bonus check for the upcoming chinese new year. quote, alibaba group has not had exceptional results and not had any special surprises. as it was the result of all of alibaba's employees' work over 15 years. aside from going public, objectively speaking, we haven't been that satisfied with our results in 2014 that should be distributed in red envelopes. >> i like that. he said let's not get lost in the fame. just because it has a global mythical stature about it because it dominates e-commerce in china because this is where everyone probably wants to be for the next millennium, but if you think about alibaba and last numbers, they didn't knock it

off the ball. they're a company where so much is expected. it's no wonder why the stock pulled back. i would continue to add on any weakness assuming 84 is the number it holds. the s.e.c., remember they've got to report this. this is something we knew about two weeks ago. >> i don't know. s.e.c. inquiries? >> if you're afraid to play in alibaba, the safer -- i should say my way of playing it is yahoo!. i've been long the name since the mid-30s. i playing it into the alibaba spin but i don't want to play alibaba correctly. >> because you're scared of chinese regulators? >> i'm scared of the headlines. but i feel this is a better way to play it. >> time for pops and drops. we've got a drop for seadrill. >> you weren't here last night. that's an inside joke. it's going to make them take about a billion dollars of their backlog away.

stock out. but the really tell, i think, will be on rigs next week. i think you'll see a relief rally in seadrill. >> pop for las vegas sands. >> that's what these things are rallying on. also up about 20%. since we talked about these names three weeks ago, stay in this one. >> and arian pharma. >> very tempted to get inside. big move higher on an actavis. keep it on a very short leash. $7 stop. >> pop for jcpenney up 2%. >> upgraeded today. not a bad day. looks like the stock is kind of out of the danger zone for the time being. wait until it gets through 830 to buy this one. >> i think it was on cheaper gas prices helping the consumer. coming up, netflix going on a spending spree. the site is set to shell out billions of dollars by 2016 putting it second in spending

only to espn. all the details on that big call next on "fast." why do we do it? why do we spend every waking moment, thinking about people? why are we so committed to keeping you connected? why combine performance with a conscience? why innovate for a future without accidents? why do any of it? why do all of it? because if it matters to you, it's everything to us. the xc60 crossover. from volvo. lease the well-equipped volvo xc60 today.

visit your local volvo showroom for details.

netflix edging higher by more than 2% in today's session. putting out a new note saying netflix is poised to spend nearly $5 billion a year on content by 2016. that puts it second only to espn. janney also upping the argument to $500 per share. joining us now is janney capital managering director tony wibal. tell us how you got to this figure and what it means exactly in terms of the content that netflix is going to be investing in. >> sure. the company has been pretty consistent about what it's

spending every month on its subscribe subscribers. we think they continue to grow around the globe. i think what people really don't appreciate and what gives us confidence that you're going to see a $5 billion spend is that that is the competitive advantage. the competitive advantage is making it very difficult for anybody else to want to be in this game. amazon is probably the next highest spender in the internet space. they're spending half of what netflix is spending but netflix is seeing 1,250% greater usage. even if you allocate billion, doesn't mean you'll be as good as netflix. >> you're saying losing money is their competitive advantage in the fact they're spending so much. when it comes to content, though, amazon has been getting awards. it's been getting recognized. it's also growing its prime usership. is it net flex versus some of the the cable content providers? >> it's netflix versus traditional in the fact that

since 2006 we've flipped and the ecosystem has its issues because of netflix. i think traditional tv's woes actually help netflix out. you'll see that amplify with ad revenue slipping. affiliate fee revenue isn't there. and here's netflix with $5 billion ready to spend. content costs are also rising in part because of netflix. yes, there's amazon and other people there, but things are not mutually exclusive here. hbo, starz, showtime are all at levels. i think they can both survive but around the globe i think netflix will dominate the market. >> the price target upped to 500. tony wible of janney. nobody owns netflix, here right? >> no. i was wrong on this.

let's just take b.k.'s wrongness aside and figure this. i go to the content carries. i think that's the way to play it. we know the content -- if they're spending $5 billion, some of it's going to go this way. >> remember when it was $96 and you called for $100. what we learned from that interview was content is king. so you go to disney. disney's up 10% year to date. netflix up more. >> that was the high we saw at some point last year. to me this is a no touch here. i'd rather buy it on a breakout above tony's price target above 500. >> all right. it is that time for final trades. let's go around the horn. tim? >> xme. if you listen to b.k., dollar's going lower. >> i listened to b.k. so you buy gg. >> grasso? >> campbell.

cpb. if they think the dollar is going lower, strong dollar was their head wind. buy this on weakness. >> guy? >> great having you on board, sara eisen. >> thank you. >> cerner. they're coming off a huge quarter. i still like cern. >> not one you hear about every day. that does it for us on "fast money." catch melissa lee and the crew back here on tuesday. but don't move yet. we've got "options action" coming after the break.

we're live at the nasdaq on a record setting session. the guys are getting ready behind me, but first here's what's coming up. ♪ up through the ground come a bubbling crude ♪ >> and could it bubble a lot higher? we're telling you how high you can profit. plus, let's. security stocks have been on fire this year so how do you cash in now? we've got the play. and talk about accelerating. shares of ford are up 10% this month and one of our traders says it could go even higher. the action starts now. we want to start the show with some breaking n