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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  February 20, 2015 5:00pm-5:31pm EST

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macy's by the way they raised their estimates of earnings on february 2nd four out of the last six times, a cincinnati company. >> that's what happens when half the panel are cincinnatins. >> thank you. >> thank you for having me. i'll be going away next week. >> kelly is back on monday. "fast money" is coming up. melissa lee, have a good weekend. "fast money" starts right now. i'm melissa lee. here's what's coming up. breaking lanes this afternoon. greece's bailout extended for four months, dow closing on an all-time high. and tech on a tear. the nasdaq seeing its fifth highest close ever. we'll see you which has more rooms to run. reports apple is coming out of with a car in 2020. former general motors executive bob lutz says not so fast.
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why he doesn't believe the hype. let's start off with the latest on greece. michelle? >> you gave one of the highlights, a four-month deal. very clear greece had to cave in on nearly everything that they had tried to fight for. they're going to have to submit to monitoring by the european union, something they didn't want to dl v to do. there will be a lot of conditionality before they can get any money. despite the fact that the greek finance minister appeared to have lost on a lot of fronts he put a very positive spin on what happened today. >> we are leaving behind the days when a list of reforms that greeks treated as a foreign body was imposed but not implemented because it was a foreign body. as of today, we're beginning to be co-authors of our destiny, co-authors of the reforms we want to implement, which we are going to dictate, which we will discuss with our partners.
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>> and which they need to submit by monday. that is the first deadline. that's what's next for greece. all the other finance ministers of europe are waiting for a list. they'll submit by monday night the imf, the european union, commission, the ecb. they'll look at all these reforms that greece calls them to see if they fit in with what they think should be greece's reforms. if they get a shuthumbs-up, we' see votes across europe next week about whether or not they'll approve this deal. and then the actual monitoring begins so that hopefully greece can get another 10 billion euros comie ing due to them sometime the next four months. back to you. >> and then in four months we'll be talking about it once again. >> right. they're probably going to need another bailout. that's the betting going on. >> michelle, thank you. brian kelly, the market reaction, up 0.2% on the s&p, probably the more dramatic
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reaction in the bond market. >> absolutely. i think in terms of the eyes of the market greece is probably over at this point in time. we know they extended it. they caved in. what will happen in the next four months? maybe we'll have negotiations. but again the end game, they'll stay in the euro and we'll move on. i think what's more important actual sli what's going on outside there. when you talk about ukraine. russia just got downgraded by moo moodies. that's going to put russia, more pressure on russia, to the extent it causes some capital flight from russia. that's a problem. i think going into next week, don't focus on greece but russia. >> david seeberg, the backdrop today is we hit record highs in the dow as well as the s&p 500. >> look, the market feels topee here. we're seeing on the dow not the not only participation you need to really keep the rally going, especially in tech. tech is a sector we're just not seeing the drive-through the
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with the long onlys. name and spaces like security software. you heard chambers saying making acquisitions but valuations are plainly too high. i think what you're seeing as far as the move in that space today short covering, driving that. i don't think that the long onlys are there and will be there. >> i would add the greece situation was a sideshow, kind of a foregone conclusion it the can would be kicked down the street. i agree with brian. when we left last week, we were concerned about some sort of diplomatic solution and they got the cease-fire in ukraine. thousands have been killed there. at some point the west has to step up. there is going to be increased sanctions and really when we think back to last spring, what happened with the sanctions. europe took another dip. that's my biggest concern right now, that this situation in ukraine gets much worse. >> i like the sound bite, we'll co-author our destiny. that's a pipe dream. their destiny is not in their hands anymore. what does it mean for the
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markets? ? the iwm, what i'm looking for, 122 some magic level. it closed above 122 today, another all-time high today. i think it sets us up for another leg high ner the markets. doesn't mean i'm a believer in the broader market. the problems out there are huge. but it doesn't mean the market can't keep going higher. that's one thing we've says for some time. i think it sets us up for the next leg higher. >> you're talking about names like pretty good gain gains. >> right. you hear about potential takeout in that space. what you see is the shorts covering. it's not the long onlys participating. i think the move particularly in some of those stocks was shorts covering. we've been told by a lot of the institutions, it's too hard to stretch. >> we want to trade the greek bill using bonds. >> i would start with gold, gld. i actually bought more the other
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day. look at what it did today. even when we had that, it came off a little bit. but it didn't break the lows of this week. i think if you get any type of skirmish in ukraine, gold is the way to play it. it's a great risk/reward. you use this week's low as your stop and the upside of it is huge. we could go back to the previous month's highs. >> gdx. instead of playing with the glt, play something even more levered. third time this week we've used the word. >> "we" meaning you. no one else pronounces it that way because it's incorrect. >> everybody in england does. >> i have feelings as well by the way. this had a huge move in january. it's pulled off a little bit. i'm with beaks on this. i think gold is moving higher. if the market stabilizes, which it has been doing, these gold miners are going higher. >> seaburg? >> yeah, europe is the place to be. at least for the short term.
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they're kicking the can down the road, but i think it's a trade. it's up 12.5%ish year to date. it may pull back a little bit. >> we have a street fight. >> i do believe it's going to go up. >> this is the euro stock, the etf. >> would you short it? >> here's the thing. we started looking at this this afternoon. it's been in the downtrendz since last week. it just broke out. there's a lot of optimism this deal was getting done. but i think the situation in the ukraine lingers here. i think we will see the west have to step up. there will be more sanctions. look at the data out of europe. it's not great. use the strength early next week in the fez as a trade. i think i'll be looking at puts looking out to april or may. >> on fez or -- >> fez. >> i think qe absolutely is the focus over here. this sounds like the apple tree we have on. this could be reminiscent of the apple tree. >> i think whoever wins for the week should have to wear a fez
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or a tar busch. >> what's that? >> i thought you went to harv d harvard. >> i didn't take that class. >> it's a type of fez. it wasn't just the s&p and dow hit iting highs. twitder up 30%, fire eye up 38%. do you buy or sell this tech higher? guy, we already know david sigh fire eye. what do you think? >> the fire eye move i agree. a lot of it has been stop covering. i thought it was 39.5, 40. palo alto networks, sort of the michael jordan of the space -- >> lebron is what it's been called. >> there you go. >> you think that's what to get. >> i do. i give valuations a stretch clearly but you could have made that argument six months ago in all of these names. i'm staying with panw. >> in the securities space,
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cisco is not thought of as a big security name. they did $425 million in the quarter just reported. that's what fireeye did all of last year. so i think there's a great opportunity in cisco. the stock has held the fwains. i don't think this's a great opportunity to jump in. there's ten year highs. i'm looking at calls. if they can start to get traction here, this is a story that's going to work. i just want to make one other point. there was a buyer of 12,000 of the april 30th stock, people are looking to extend gains past that better than expected. >> what tech rip would you buy or seld? >> i would actually sell twitter. >> listen, in the long run, i think twitter goes higher. but in the very short run, look how it traded. we had a huge day, twitter up to 50 and completely rever$50 and couldn't get out of its way. it has had a tremendous run. take your profits and wait until the pullback. >> i'm with you 100%. >> wow. >> there we go. >> brotherly love. >> you re-tweeted it.
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>> nice. >> that's a thinker. apple reportedly entering the auto market by 2020. but gm manager bob lutz says don't bet on it. and is dan nathan's love of burritos a problem? we have an update coming up. ♪
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new reports claim apple wants to top producing an electric vehicle by 2020 putting the tech giants in the auto game. will apple hit the road? let's bring in former general motors chairman bob lutz and vice president of equity research jamie. bob, i'll start with you. you've had a long career in the auto industry. is it even possible to think of apple building a car by 2020? >> well, i suppose it's possible to think of it, but until they announce it themselves i won't believe it because it requires
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an enormous -- just a gigantic commitment of capital. especially if they decide to go into electric cars. those are notoriously unprofitable. i don't think anybody has yet to make money on an electric car, especially in view of easily available fuel and low gasoline prices. there's very, very little incentive for the customers to buy them. >> jamie, a keey is access to batte batteries. certainly they have relationships with the manufacturers of batteries but they don't have a manufacturing site to produce the batteries. >> even if they had the scale, you have to buy the lithium ion. whether it's a regular factory, the process of making lithium ion batteries is almost entirely automated. i don't think there's much money to be gained there.
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why would they do this? the automobile business is a low margin business, whereas the business apple is in is a very high margin business. the devices and tablets and everything they produce have very, very little actual cost. and they retail for hundreds if not thousands of dollars. why would they exit that to go into a business where, in good times, you may have a 5% or 6% net margin and in bad times you hemorrhage money like crazy. >> sure. jamie, we'll go to you. you cover tesla. let's say apple comes out with a car by 2020. will that change your model? >> well, absolutely. i think we need to consider that electric vehicle penetration is still very low, and i think one of the reasons tesla opened up its patent to the world was to promote further investment in r & d and further driving both battery costs lower and as bob
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mentioned making electric vehicles profitable at some point. but the bigger picture here is trying to loosen the reins from opec. gas prices are cheaper now, but long term there's too much volatility in gas. this helps get the u.s. economy, the global economy, sort of off of that fossil fuel diet. >> yeah. quick question for tesltesla. valuation in tesla, i personally think's way very much stretched. what's your opinion on the stock? i think you have a $400 target on it. >> i do indeed. i'm very optimistic that not only the sort of addressable market opportunity at the luxury vehicle side is significant, they are truly the only unique player in the $100,000-plus price point category, i believe that the gig afactory is ahead of factory and mass market vehicle will be approaching 200,000, 250,000 units at the
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end std decade. there's stationary value here. some of the parts put together, i believe 400 is absolutely attainable. the question,you know, 12 months or 18 months out. but certainly attainable. >> bob, a lot of auto companies already have a relationship with companies that provide software and technology to their autos. they also have in-house technology. i'm wondering how easy it would be for apple if they wanted to own the dashboard, how easy it would be for apple to disrupt the relationships that already exist. >> well, see, that's what i think the real plan is. as we approach the semi autonomous vehicles which will be on the market in another year or two and then later go to fully ought ton muss vehicles, what you could really use is a skilled supplier who can supply lug-in systems to the automakers and supplying that could be hugely profitable. and that, of course, does
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require some knowledge of the automobile business, its demands and so forth. i think that's entirely plausible. what i don't think is plausible is making their own car. and i would say further i do not think that tesla is turning a profit. i remain very skeptical about tesla because they have no proprietary technology that can't be duplicated by dmw, mercedes-benz in another year general motors will be out with a lower priced 200 mile electric car, on which they'll also lose money. but there's nothing special about tesla except that they have a cool car which is bought by rich environmentalists on the west coast. >> guys, we've got to leave it there. th thanks for your time, bob and jamie. let's talk about this. it seems like two things we can talk about it, bob laying out a
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bear case or short case for tesla and who could apple disrupt in the dashboard. could that be a mobile eye, which has basically been flat since january. just been trading horribly. >> i would say for apple, if i'm a shareholder, i would welcome increased r & d. maybe it's car, maybe not. apple has two times the market cap of google, almost two and a half times the cash on their balance sheet and they spend less in r & d a year. i want to see apple spend more. forget the car. how about coming up with a cell phone battery that lasts more than a day. hopefully this can open it up. >> the case for tesla maybe a year or two from now. we talk about it, february 11th, we waited for them to report earnings. the stock should trade to 185. we said 5 at best. i think above 225 if breaks out. i think the stock is going higher. >> it was really nice today considering the tape and what oil is doing. for the second day in a row,
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decoupling from oil, ramping up. >> it seems like that's the catalyst going forward. you no longer will have to worry about oil for the short term with tesla. the one thing i would say about apple and we talked about owning the dashboard, you know what their car play runs on? it's a little software system called qnx owned by blackberry. not only that -- it's in every car out there. it's incredibly important. john chen talked about it being the most important and possibly the crown jewel for blackberry's turnaround. if you're going to play this at all, why not play blackbetterly. >> i'm not shooting -- no, i'm not. there was no -- i didn't say a word. >> yeah, you did. we're going to break. still ahead, dan nathan says taco bell is just for stoners. now he's eating his own words. we hold his feet to the fire after this. you can't predict the market.
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our traders are fast but not always right. dan nathan had strong words after yungz earnings report earlier this month. >> this is garbage. what would we call it last night? >> crap. you called it crap. >> put lipstick on a pig. if you want to give guidance, give guidance. let your investors understand where the business is. don't push it out to the second half and say we're committed to doing this. i think you sell it on this. i don't like it. >> since then, the stock is up 5%, not so crappy, dan. >> not so crappy. i stick by what i said. i was emboldened. i went into a chipotle and had one of their burritos. i think my window call that taco bell is for potheads.
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chipotle is for people like me. i'm clearly wrong. the stock is up 10%, sentiment is poor in results. they'll have china data in march. i'm going to get back in very soon. yesterday was a bunch of weird options activities. next week 77.5 calls, there are no scheduled events. then they're also buying march 2.5 -- 82.5 calls. that gave me a pause, let's see what happens over the next week. >> time now for ann taylor up 5%. >> i am a seller of the stock. this whole garbage about whether they're up, this is around forever. the stocks to sell. they get a margin issue. i don't like the company at all. >> abbvie. >> seems to have found a bottom around 55. they just raised their dif devi but it feels like the stock
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wants to take it higher. i think abbvie moves higher. >> boeing up 3%. >> an absolutely bloody rip. upgraded. this stock has been on fire. nonetheless, you sell the stock. you take a profit. not because i don't like it. it's just moved too far too fast. >> drop for eog. >> this seems mild. yesterday it was down 10%. most of those losses were made back. then today got downgraded after a disappointed result. this is one where 85 looks like where it got to, almost where it got to in the last couple of months. probably the shot if you want to take a shot on a long entry. i don't like it. >> back to you, dan, final trade. >> first thing you do, sell russia rsx. >> facebook, 100 bucks. we had a great report on the stock.
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love it. >> thanks, guys. appreciate it. coming up next, that '08 show? >> yeah. >> macy's trade there. >> wow, don't give it away. >> what were we talking about last night? cempra. all-time high today, i think it goes fire from here. >> that does it for us for "fast." we're back after the break.
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we are live at the nasdaq. stock paid record highs. the guys getting ready to give you their best news. first what's on tap. we are saying that gold miners could be set to rally. we'll explain how you can cash in now. plus -- >> devilled cheese and sausage? >> maybe investors shouldn't go for seconds. we'll explain why one fast food giant could be about to cool off. what do you get when you mix trading with romantic hits from the '70s? you're about to find out. "options actions" starts now. ♪ do that to me one more time >> what will matter the

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