tv Fast Money CNBC February 24, 2015 5:00pm-6:01pm EST
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we'll get instant analysis by an analyst on the call. also, an exclusive with the ceo of sunedison. spoke to him at today's analyst meeting, and he has some interesting comments about all these yield cos coming to market. >> i want to ask you, how eclipse and europe with all the solar power may be a huge problem for them, cause all these disruptions that. >> is an interesting topic, kelly. >> yeah. so straight over to you guy, thanks a lot. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market overlooking times square, our. the conference call starting right now. david will break down the results coming up. and move over. what's up? and we chat another mobile messaging app is stealing the spotlight. we've got the co-founder of kik joining us live. as big tech companies like yahoo look to break into this space. the s&p and dow closing in on record territory after federal reserve chair janet
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yellen said the fed does not want to raise rates too soon. >> if the fed were to raise rates too soon, senator, we would risk undermining a recovery that is really just taking hold and is really succeeding i think in improving the labor market. as i said, i don't think we're back to attaining yet conditions i'd associate with maximum employment where normal labor market conditions. >> and low rates could be more good news for the housing markets. stocks at home depot already rallying on the back of strong earnings. we have that going on. and lending standards seem to be easing up little. there is more lending going on from the big banks as well as the subprime sector. karen, what do you think? >> lending going on would be a good thing for banks. that's a much higher product than some of the other things on their balance sheet. why the banks rallied on comments that would lead to a longer time of flatter yield
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curve, i don't know. it's odd. >> in terms of housing? >> you mention home depot. their fourth quarter was fantastic. they reported a buck, beat the street handily. operating margins much better. it's a name we have liked for quite some time. that said, i mean, they had a big move today on three, four times normal volume. it's now trading close to 23 times forward earnings. you have to ask yourself, did today's move get it above a little over its skis a bit? i think it did. we liked it for a while. but taking profits in home depot is not the worst idea in the world. >> but getting back to the general thesis, lower rates good for housing. rate have been olow for a long time, grasso. >> right. but it's seen as ending in june, or starting the beginning of the end in june, maybe september. so i guess guys were trying to set their dance cards up and get rid of some things off their balance sheets. i think for karen's point, though, the reason why financials would rally, i think it's just a testament they rush into equities. point-blank, any high quality equity, and that's why.
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so the yield curve still flat, but it's still a quality company. and goldman sachs is actually the best financial. >> pete? >> and i look at the housing numbers. the housing numbers coming into toll brothers, which was today, they beat on the top and bottom lines. they have great orders still coming inform. you look at some of the numbers and what the numbers were in terms of the houses sold. 782,000. way above what everybody expected. it says a lot about the strength of not just toll, but i think the rest of the sector when you look at that, you look at the xhp, home depot, those numbers were strong. obviously we're waiting on lowe's. that should something that should be another trigger and new home sales there are a lot of things going into the future. but in terms of the banks right now, to karen's point, you just wonder what really was the trigger. it seems like to me, grasso, it might be early for people to say hey, look, i'm going to start positioning. now june, maybe it gets pushed september. i think to your other point, it's equities. people want them right now. they look at these banks. they look at where they trade, versus their book value. they still trade relatively
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cheap. you look at citi, jpmorgan, wells fargo, they're all under book value. that means there is some upside. people are looking for that. >> do you agree with that, guy? what was striking to me is when we got the fomc minutes a week or so ago, banks sold off on notion that rates would remain lower for longer. today we get the same message and we have a rally in banks. why the discrepancy? >> a broader market rally. well, i mean, we're going to talk about jpmorgan. so let's sort of shelve that for a second. >> it's its own little -- >> i think that helped as well. a lot of these housing numbers also i think help the banks. i don't think people believe by the way that the yield curve is not going to move to their benefit. thing are a lot of people in the camp that rates are going higher. i'm not one of the people. i think the tlt bottomed last week. i think we see a move lower in rates. does that mean banks decouple? i don't think so. i think banks might be getting . one was the leadership of jpmorgan today. >> do we stay long tlt at this
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point? did yellin give the all clear to remain long tlt for a little bit longer? >> well, you know, it does make you wonder. obviously, we all think this thing got pushed out. and she talked about patience being one of the words that eventually would probably be taken out. i think everybody is just trying to read as much as they can into the fed. and she talked about throughout the minutes, it seemed like they kept going back and forth, back and forth about the idea of when is this rate going to be coming. it sure seems like she is projecting, hey, look, every meeting we're discussing this. there is not any one single trigger. but it sure feels like they want to start moving. and they just need to see the data continue to come in. >> hewlett-packard at the lows in the after hour session. the company missing on revenue estimates, cautionary headwinds in 2015. david has the details. david? >> thanks, melissa. it was $26.8 billion for the first quarter. 92 cents a share. but that's not what investors are going to be focused on as much as the cut and guidance from the company as a result of that strong dollar. now, it's going to have an
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impact overall the company says of 60 cents a share. half of that they hope to make up from productivity and through taking price, if they can. in other words, raising the price of various goods that are impacted by that strong dollar. but man, have they been impacted. the tune of about a billion and a half dollars in earnings, and 3.3 billion in revenues, is at least what hewlett-packard is estimating. of course, perhaps even more than other companies with similar product portfolio, if you will, they sell even more overseas. let's call it 2/3 of sales are international. half of that takes place in europe. so you can't imagine that they are seeing a very strong impact from really what are those historic moves in the dollar. that said, not a lot of growth to go around a hewlett-packard as well. the top line down 5%. 2% when you take out the effects of the currency. and even the businesses within that psg actually not too bad. enterprise okay. but we're talking single digit increases in revenues with others obviously down, including
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enterprise services. so call going on right now. we'll see what meg whitman and they have to say beyond those quarterly numbers and what they can speak to in terms of hopes for growth perhaps, some of these businesses as you well know, hp is splitting into -- or hp ink is going to be name and hewlett-packard enterprises. the expectation perhaps that the enterprises component if you will would be a faster grower than hp ink, although right now growth does seem hard to come by. they did quantify for the first time the costs associated with that separation. $1.3 billion in fiscal year '15. another half a billion in fiscal year '16. that's a big number. but to put it in perspective, when kraft -- when kraft split is about $1.7 billion. we haven't seen a split of this type really ever, creating two fortune 50 companies, melissa. it's enormous. it is still expected to take place by let's call it early
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november, november 1st. as well they laid off 44,000 people under their restructuring program with another call it 11,000 to go there. and perhaps then more cost cuts coming once these companies are separated. back to you. >> speaking of growth, david, did they talk about a virtual private cloud, vpc business and/or the 3-d print organize initiative? >> not as i'm aware of. i had an opportunity to review some of the remarks. i also spoke to them briefly. they may perhaps get some questions on the call. but that was not a part of our conversation or anything that i've seen, at least that they have mentioned in the various releases that came out with the earnings, melissa. >> all right, david, thank you so much. of course, don't miss faber's exclusive interview with hewlett-packard's ceo meg whitman tomorrow morning on "squawk on the street." i mentioned the two growth areas. down 7%. it was at a three-year high in january. do you buy this dip? >> i think so. i'm really surprised actually, and david touched on it. you asked a great question about the cloud. that's really wound telephone
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areas that everybody has been focusing on. they talk about cloud, the growth there and they talk about the margins and all of the margin potential that lies within that that's an area we know is growth. and why haven't we heard enough than? obviously the stock is reflecting that right now. i think eventually we're going the hear from meg because of that once she starts to address some of those numbers. i think those numbers should be positive, at least everything we were told. and because of that, i think 36. this is the lows of january. thing is the place to buy. >> if you were multinational now, if you don't have an fx risk management team, you should have one. if they have one, hewlett-packard, they should fire the group. >> an awful job hedging. >> that's awful. but the quarter, let's just focus on the quarter. operation margins in psg, printing and enterprise were much better than the street was looking for this. is not an expensive stock. i think hewlett-packard trades eight times or so forward earnings. it's not a disastrous quarter. and i think to pete's point, you're basically at the mid point of a range that we traded from over the last six to nine months. 6 to 5, i think it's worth a shot on the long shot.
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>> one thing we can read about david's comments, that's an enormous charge for splitting. i wonder if that's sort of a lot of extra expenses in there that make each of them look a little better when they come out? >> ooh. >> i don't know. oa little conspiracy. >> the efx headwinds are rear looking. i would say if selling it off of, that should it be bought. but it did break after hours, the 200-day moving arnold, 36.22. so we go back to what? the three-day rule. i would let this breathe a little bit. but i do believe it is bought to -- >> jpmorgan's ceo saying the bank going to cut stock and the stock is popping today. we'll tell you how to play it, next. and an app that has 200 million registered users. you might not have heard of it. but your teenager probably has. after facebook's $19 billion what's app purchase, many big tech companies are paying attention to it. the co-founder of kik joins us live for an interview, coming up on "fast."
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results. so while the maker of sam adams reported earnings that beat by three cents, revenue was $218 million and that was disappointing compared to the street's estimate. guidance also falling flat with the company forecasting full year 2015 earnings of $7.10 to $7.50 per share. analysts had been looking closer to $7.96 per share for a full year 2015. so we're again seeing shares of boston beer down 7% right now. back over to you. >> all right. thank you rk, morgan brennan. the ceo talking about having to increase spending and advertising in order to compete. so spending is going up. >> look at the stock, though. the stock has been on a tear. a huge move. it's probably almost tripled over the last couple years. so what does it mean? when you trade at 40 times earningsish and lower full-year guidance that much, i think this is the right move in the after market there is going to be an opportunity to buy the stock. they're no one-day events.
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but if this thing can sift back down to the 250 level which we topped out at 2013, that's where you gobble it up. >> all right. jpmorgan jumping higher as it delivered some good news on investor day. that kickses off our top trades tonight. the big bank announcing a plan to save $1.4 billion this year. plus it defended its large size and says it plans to keep its current business model. so no split, karen. >> no split. i love that. that's like victoria secret video to me, walking around. to boil down the entire investor day, jamie said on the call, and if i call him jamie, i guess that's okay. he said on the call p/e is wrong. it's funny that i agree with him. we bought stock as it came down this year. i think this p/e is wrong here. it's been here for a while. that's okay. but the other thing you think you need to know, they think they can get to $30 billion of earnings in three years. so what does that mean? that's about 8 bucks a share.
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and if the p/e is wrong, let's say you put a 12 on it, which is not a crazy multiple. he also guided that -- guided that the dividend could likely rise. so let's say that you have a 3% dividend. you you've do have a $96 stock in three years. that's a nice return from here. that is i think not priced in right now. i think the market is too pessimistic here. i do think this p/e number is wrong. there is a lot of leverage they can pull. but i also think he said we're not splitting. i do believe that is off the table unless forced into it. and i don't see that scenario happening. i like it right here. it's had a nice move in the last month. but it had a big move down in january. for the year i think it's down a little bit. i like it right here. >> favorite bank, robert grasso? >> goldman sachs. goldman sachs is flat on the year. jpmorgan is down 2.5% or so. bank of america is down 8%. i do like bank of america. it trades in that nice little trading range. but if i had to buy one gun to the head right now, it would be goldman sachs.
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>> your choice? >> jpmorgan. jpmorgan. wells fargo, it's tough to split those guys up because of what is exposed to what and wells fargo obviously u.s. centric. but i look at the name, it's one of the strong names. it was one of my final trades the other day. jpmorgan for all the reasons karen was talking about. some of the cost savings, the cuts they were talking about there, they actually could put $3 billion in their pocket going into the rest of the year, that's pretty impressive to me. >> tortoise and the hare. >> tortoise. >> right? >> it was quick. it wasn't about you. >> go ahead. >> hare. >> blackstone! gets it done. >> wow. >> the stock has very stealthily been on this nice little run, 28 to 36. i still think it's cheap. >> kkr too. >> ooh, kkr gets you down. >> throw in the financial space. >> all right, all right. >> from scrooged. >> next up, netflix, bringing back peewee herman for "peewee's big holiday" with the help of
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judd apatow. no premiere data set yesterday, but the announcement comes just days before the big house of cards debut. and fun fact here. "peewee herman's big adventure" in 1985 raked in $41 billion. guy? that was big money then. $41 million. >> i tell you what. i'm not a big peewee herman fan. >> really? wow. >> it was good movie. >> it was a good movie. >> netflix trade, we had it when it bottomed out at 320, we said double bottom in may. saw it again in the fall. we had it right. i thought it would stop at 405. dead wrong because here yes at 480. how do you trade it now? it topped out. this is september highs we're trading at now. this is a stock trading 80 times forward earnings. otherwise i think you do a back and fill here. so how do you trade it? i think you buy the breakout over 480 and just cross your
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fingers. >> "house of cards" is going to be released over the weekend. i'm going to binge watch it. i'm sure millions will. what do you think the stock does come monday? >> i think it gives you that artificial pop because it's artificial off a single event or whatever. but i still look at this name. i think you stay away from netflix. let it give you that pullback that you're looking for. when it's blood in the streets and it's scary again, it happens all the time in this name, that will will be your opportunity. because international growth is something that they continue to put out there. >> right. >> europe, whether it's germany, across latin america still an area where there is incredible amounts of growth. this is why this company should go higher. but you need the pullback. >> i'm going to take the other side of that. i'm going to say it's heading towards 500. sooner rather than later. it's still buy i believe right now. it's a trading show. still ahead, the tradie in company. we talk a founder of kik. that's next. and pete in general
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electric. he breaks it down. that's next. >> even without the hair. can you believe that comment? >> the great thing about "fast money" is you're getting multiple superb tis. >> my specialty is watching u.s. equities. >> i'm a long-term investor for sure. >> i've always looked at technicals more than fundamentals. >> and i don't just look at one xt. i look for unusual option. >> i do test stock market main yags. >> i'm a global trader. >> our investors want to make their own decisions. >> we deliver dozens and dozens of trades. that's what we do. >> "fast money," weekdays 5:00 eastern on cnbc. r. so, how's the app coming? we've got to make something great. how's the app coming? we've got to do it fast. let's do this on bluemix. you can build apps with analytics, big data, even ibm watson. that could give us the edge. let's do this on bluemix. it can provide code for you. we could be first to market. because being best is priority one. being first is priority one. there's a new way to work and it's made with ibm.
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a $19 billion valuation, there is another messaging service that claims an even higher user engagement than snap chat, facebook and twitter. let's bring in the chief technology officer of kik message. chris best. good to speak with you. >> hi, good to be here. >> your users are interesting. you have 200 million registered users and they're predominantly 14 to 17-year-olds. very young. give us colors to how much time they spend on the app and how often they use it? >> yeah, so i think 14 to 17 is sort of a third of our user base. 17 to 25 is about another third.
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so we do skew very young. and what we see from all the numbers is that they use it a lot. the bi intelligence study that came out recently said that users are spending about 97 minutes a week in the app, which is just huge. >> how do you -- what are your plans moneyization. i would imagine that demographic, they don't like ads. >> we're going for sort of the chat platform play. similar to what you're seeing some of the big players do in asia like lion in japan and we chat in china. we see three pillars of that strategy there is chat, content and commerce. so we're going to do what is happening in asia here in the u.s. >> there is also -- there is a recent report that the fb facebook messenger app was basically allowing emojis, customizable emojis to be put in where a three pack where you can have special emojis. i would imagine this demographic that would be a real way
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ofmontization. have you gone down that road in terms of making money? >> yeah we have definitely looked at the stickers and the emojis customizations especially given our young demographic. anything that is fun is kind of win-win, stuff that gives us a path to monetize. >> you're in the area that everybody wants to be in. i want you to take a listen to what ceo of yahoo! marissa meyer recently said about its messaging presence last week. >> i think small is actually an overestimation. we don't have a mobile messaging app. adam, what are you doing than? but in all seriousness, i think that it's certainly something that we're interested in because of yahoo! messenger, the pc platform. i know that's something that we have a lot of legacy knowledge in. and it's an area that is really
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growing. >> so clear lia hao is interested. facebook was interested. are you willing to put yourself up for sale? are you talking to anybody? >> first of all, i'd like to say that i think yahoo!'s strategy of sort of going mobile, focusing mobile and aggressively acquiring mobile companies is a good one for them. that said, we think that this messenger race that we're in right now is an absolutely tremendous opportunity. so right now we're 100% focused on building an independent sustainable kik. >> independent. does that include an ipo? >> yeah, i think that might be a cool possibility at some point in the future. maybe we could be on this show more. >> all right. we'll take you up on it. you file, chris, you come back on. good to speak with you. >> awesome. you too. thank you. >> chris best, the co-founder of kik. i downloaded kik. >> of course you did. >> just to try it. do you have it already on your mobile phone? >> my pinterest page. >> this is a sweet spot, though.
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>> let me say this. you mention emojis. >> yes. >> i'm just telling anybody out there, you ever text me with an emoji. >> i'm going to do it right now. >> i'll track you. >> so i heard his answer. but why is there -- are you convinced there is a need for more -- help me with the word. >> what's app? >>, no i don't. i use a carrier pigeon, me and guy. send it back and forth. >> a message in a bottle and you throw it out into the river. seriously, most people in other countries, they all use what's app. you go to another country they want to know your mobile number because you can go what's app for free. >> i'm a what's app user. >> i think it's phenomenal. >> so for this, for the younger demographic, we may not fall into that demographic. >> it makes some sense. there is something out there obviously for them. he didn't talk about the active users. >> they don't leeson them. >> 200 million. but it's pretty impressive
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number. >> definitely. >> and the youth of this company itself. >> as we mentioned yahoo! a lot of people were in the same -- i think we're all pretty bullish in yahoo! in the fall. it's going to trade 50. it shot through. since early december, the stock has not performed well. i think we can all agree there. i do think it has found a bit of a base at this 43, 43.5 level. you mentioned yahoo!. i don't know if yahoo! is going to do something with kik. but at these level there's is not a real catalyst until april just to trade the stock. i think the risk-reward for yahoo! -- >> the one last is baba. >> right. >> it's the everything. that's the only reason i don't know in yahoo! right now whether i'm as confident as i used to be because baba is trading so poorly right now. unusual activity. pete is taking a look at a huge trade in general electric, pete. >> it's not one of the names we bring up very often because quite frankly, it's so large. you don't usually see these huge trades come in to ge. they did today. 39,000 of the april 26 calls.
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the reason that is pretty interesting is the stock has been stuck between the 100 and 200-day moving averages. if it can get through that 200 day moving average which is around 2575, then the stock could be off to the races to break flew 26 level, the options could work. the options were very inexpensive, trading around 35 cents. someone thinks the stock is going higher. insider bought 20 million shares on february 18th and 19th. $20 million worth of shares. they bought 400,000 and 400,000 again. very, very active, very, very interesting to see the insider buy. >> are you? >> i'm in the stock and in the calls. now. a huge day of gains for the solar sector. sun power joint venture announcement. we'll sit done down with the ceo for one of the big movers and get his take on the partnership and why some are calling it stock a hedge fund hotel. that's next. 2550 [ male announcer ] your love for trading never stops, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 even on the go. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 open a schwab account, and you could earn tdd# 1-800-345-2550 300 commission-free online trades. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 so if you get a trade idea, schwab can help you take it on.
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300 to see whether they're worth adding to your portfolio, coming up. and one trader making a big bet on jcpenney ahead of earnings. a first solar and sun power joint yield component. sunedison announcing the first ever eradication of darkness summit hoping to bring knowledge of technologies needed to deliver clean energy around the world. i sat down with the ceo, ahmad chatila an interview outside the conference today. >> the last time we spoke was some time in september. i think that was close to the recent low off of the decline in oil in your stock. since then, it's come up quite a bit. you still think that you haven't recouped that decline because of the perception that oil and solar are linked? >> yeah, absolutely. we have not recouped it at all. we have done the first wind acquisition, and we have executed really well on terra form. not only the ipo, but also acquisitions. in my view, we are around 25,
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30% undervalued at this moment. >> you have a second yield coplanned. it will capture the assets for emerging asia and africa. you have said in the past it's on track for mid 2015. that still the case? >> yes. >> does anything in how you present it, what assetious put in, what sort of yield you offer change because of this proposed first solar-sun power yield co? >> if anything i'm very excite about that moment. we need more investors to come into this space so we are nor valued. i think as more people come in and there is more float of various yield cos, i think we'll be recognized more and our stock will go up. so i'm very excited about it. i hope it really succeeds greatly. and i wish there is more. it's hard to do a yieldco. that's why you have two companies doing it together. >> i want to talk about your shareholder base. i was taking a look at your top institutional shareholders. of the top ten eight were hedge fund. your stock has been called a hedge fund hotel. do you hope to migrate that to the, you know, the large sort of mutual fund holders of the
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world? >> no question. you know, in our phase today, these are the kind of investors that are willing to take a bet on us. i think at some point when we show consistent cash flow generation, we will go through a new stock price. the minute we get that, two things will happen. our market capital will be larger that means more the type of investors would like to have will come in because they're able to deploy their resource to analyze our company. and number two, they don't want to take that off speculation in their view. >> when does that happen of consistent cash flow? >> my view in early '16, early 17 we'll be in great shape. >> karen is an owner of sunedison. >> yes, i checked into that hotel. i've been there for a while. i like the story. the analyst day today, i didn't see a whole lot different than what we've seen going into this. i do actually believe, though, oil has been in this range, 45, 55 now, getting close to two
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months. and actually, we are starting to see the solar stocks decouple or whatever you want to call it from the oil story. that is interesting. the other thing he talks about, the yieldco, that's really important. the price of doing these projects as financing is more available and price comes down. you can see this industry develop more, which means higher multiples, probably. >> right. >> and i think that he is right. right now is markup is $6 billion. you don't want to have a hedge fund hotel as your holder base. it's not ideal. >> right. >> you want the plain vanilla, more mutual funds in there. hopefully. >> long-term holder. >> hopefully that will start to happen. but i like the story here. thing is a way -- there is way to go here. remember, sunedison also owns a big part of terra if i remember forming. so they do own a embedded yield within the stock. first solar announcing after the bell it's quarterly profit jumped due to the sale of a
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power plant in california. the stock is slightly lower in the after hours session. huge surge in today's trading. first solar is his topic. ben, great to have you with us. >> thanks for having me on. >> first solar, you told investors into earnings to hold on to the stock despite volatility because of the possibility of a positive surprise which could include a yieldco. on to the quarter. in the after hours session, the stock is a little soft after a huge run-up in today's session. but now what? what is the next catalyst? >> look, we recommended today for investors to buy into the strength. and we'll recommend a buy on the open. the quarter is confusing. you add in the yieldco here and it looks messy. a couple of highlights. books were very strong. the company continues to improve their technology, which opens up the market. like karen said, we'll get multiple expansion here as they bring on the yieldco. and then several ahead, they'll file s-1 for the yieldco with
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the two strongest companies partnered together attend of march. first solar will likely hold an analysts day at the end of the year. >> in terms of the yieldco, why do you think having a joint yieldco with sun power is beneficial? you cover both. you like both. what is your opinion? >> so one of the things that we don't look at very often is technology. and we think of solar panels as commoditized. first solar and sun power have differentiated technology, albeit it they're very different. first solar is very good for big projects out in the desert, utility scale projects while sun power is the best technology for the rooftops. so by couples the two companies you get access to both the markets by leading brands. >> do you think there will be investor competition in the yield co space as we will have this filing by the end of the first quarter, could hit the market any time after that? and we also have sunedison's second yield market coming to market in the second half of 2015? >> i think we're aways from
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that. what we are going to see, you see a lot of the chinese module manufacturers talking about starting yieldcos with project in china and other parts of the globe with more risk, geographical risk. i think you'll see this survival of the fittest while you get some separation between the first solar, sun power, sunedisons of the world, maybe even a canadian solar. but the rest of the guys are going to be left in the dust. >> okay. so the bottom lineup then, you're still sticking with first solar even with this double-digit per sent increase in today's session? >> i went on both of them, first solar and sun power. >> all right, ben. thanks for making time for us. way appreciate it. >> thank you. >> ben kalla of baird. >> it seems like it's a healthy run fairly fast. >> in one day. >> right. so i think based upon that, you always expect some sort of a pullback. you wouldn't expect this extension to continue on to the upside. so, yeah, on the pullback, i think you've got to be interested, especially if you're bullish on oil, despite what everybody says. it's been trading with oil.
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and i see oil going higher. >> he picked out first solar and sun power. sun power has been pulling the ship forward. he said that projects from first solar are going to come on. i think it is still probably both buyable. but i would lean his way and buy first solar off of this. >> guy? >> sun power's first quarter guidance was not good if you look. >> yeah. >> the quarter was all right. the guidance was not good. huge short interest in sun power. we said that move in the after hours should be extended today. that happened. i'm in sort of the take profits, specifically in spwr here. >> all right. this brings us to finerman's fine print. another part of the space beaten down, and that is coal. karen? >> yes. steve and i were talking earlier today and all right, what other energy plays are there out there? and one left for dead is coal. and, you know, there are those out there who are willing to buy a lottery ticket. i think that that really doesn't make sense at all. people say what can you lose? you could lose 100% of your
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money. that's what you could lose. and one of the ways that you should check whether or not the is a ridiculous investment is look at the debt. the debt markets are always so much smarter than the equities. so if we look at alpha natural resource, this is debt here. look at the debt trading off from 70 cents down to 14 cents per dollar. that's telling you, this is going under. so even though on a dollar basis or a cents basis, the stock looks cheap, the situation is very bad. same for walter, another chart looks almost identical. disaster. you might -- the coal industry will exist. but these equities most likely will not. >> wow. >> if you look at the equity, btu is the name that if you're thinking about buying one name, that's the name that you would want to migrate to. but the problem is if you look at a long-term chart and overlay nat gas, nat gas is what killed the coal industry. it wasn't just the emissions, it was nat gas prices. as nat gas prices came, in there was no demand for the dual usage plants to go to coal.
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so with that going forward, i would say domestically, still under pressure. >> do you see activity to support the thesis that perhaps these companies are heading lower? >> you know, to be honest with you, it seems like the option markets have sort of backed away from a lot of the coal names. the stocks themselves are now at a level of an option, quite frankly. that way they have the opportunity to hopefully have something that doesn't expire in case they miss it. >> all right. got some breaking news here on godaddy. morgan brennan has the details. morgan? >> hey, melissa. go daddy just filed an amended s 1. it will trade under the ticker gddy. and for class a common stock that will be listed on the new york stock exchange. no price listed. keep in mind we did know that go daddy was filing for an ipo. what this gives success the ticker, gddy, and the exchange also worth noting. morgan stanley, jpmorgan and citigroup continue to be the lead underwriters on this ipo. back to you. >> thank you, morgan brennan.
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so the ticker is going to be giddy. like giddyup. >> go daddy. >> giddyup. >> big danica patrick fan. you watch the daytona 500. what do you think? >> i think a lot of things. be specific. >> i don't want to be specific. we go hunting for risks by looking at some of the highest beta names in the s&p 500. are they worth chasing? more "fast money" straight ahead.
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it was down a lot. >> time now for pops and drops. big movers of the day. drop for macy's, down 3%. karen? >> yeah, the people were disappointed that they got it. i think it was in the middle five cents lower than the street. i think this is way overdone. the multiple is cheap here. i like macy's right here. >> pop or shake shake shack, up 5%. >> shake shack, basket, shake shack! >> everybody seems to love the burgers but not everybody loves the stock. the stock dilt did get a pop today. none of them liked it at these levels. they do like the company. they think it's in front of itself. i tend to agree. i think it pulls off these numbers. >> that was the one time i enjoyed your singing. >> mgm resorts down 3%. >> when you look at a revenue basis, it looks like it's less
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dependent on macao than the other names. it has a 21.30 cent range to be viable. i think you could dabble in the stocks, the casino names. >> rig dropped. >> the delayed announcement from the february 17th announcement when basically the ceo resigned and had the dividend cut. it should have happened that monday. it didn't. it's getting towards levels that are interesting. i do think it's a 14 handle at some point. you may have heard our traders talk about beta from time to time on this show. it's a term that comes up a lot in the trading world. we thought we would do a quick trade school. beta a measure of a stock's volatility compared to a benchmark index. for example, if you assign the s&p 500 for a beta of 1 for a time frame, you can determine how a stock responds. a 1 means it would be more volatile and perhaps more risky. beta less than 1 means it will would be less volatile. we calculated the highest beta
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names in the s&p 500, and the results are pretty surprising. let's start off with the highest beta stock in the index. this is a shocker. best buy. which has a beta of 3.1, according to data from fact set. the stock is up 51% in the past year. it's down 2% year to date. grasso, you have been pounding the table on this one. >> this is a turnaround story, and the turnaround is probably in the late innings of it. can it go higher? yes. but it's rallied back. it had an incredible run as you said before. it's up over 50%. it's come in 17% recently. tracking back up, $40 is resistance. so i would say benefit, your risk reward trade here is probably if you have had the luxury of riding this one up or still in it, i would sell it, take some profits. >> we're past the holidays. we're sort of in a weird period. >> they've done really well online. they did a great job so they can compete with the amazons of the world and so forth. i tend to be with steve.
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great name. they have done everything right on this huge comeback. but i think right now is probably a time where you probably want to take some profits and wait for an opportunity later on. >> all right. next up, tesoro, among the top ten highest betas in the s&p 500, at 2.2. up more than 70% in the past year. and guy, this is, refiners across the board have been doing really well. >> more than most. we talk about the stock in the earnings. they reported february 11th. the quarter was okay but not good enough after the run the stock had had. we actually talked about a move back to 80.5 if it happened, buy the stock. that's exactly what did happen. and yet it has pushed to 92. the stock sold off today. i know goldman sachs recently downgraded. but it's not an expensive stock there are a lot of moving parts here. i think dips in the stock like the one we saw today are worth buying. >> what would you do with refiners? still on board? >> crack is widening. if you look at the charlotte on valero, it's more spectacular than tesoro, but both going in the same direction. still a bright spoyrkts it's
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amazing to think that the spreads in the fall were practically $1. >> and now all of the sudden they have this spread. and if they can store some oil and oil does go do the upside, wow, these guys are killing it. >> so stick with this trade? >> yes. >> and michael kors, you're tied for seventh highest bait that in s&p. kors has dropped 20% versus an s&p gain. >> i was surprised yesterday. i really like the name. i'm surprised the trade is that high of a beta. one thing i would look at to me that a sense of risk is how levered the balance sheet is. the business model. refiners, you can variable operation margin really move a lot. here, not so much. and the p/e. so the p/e is very i think very reasonable here. the balance sheet is in great shape. the beta, if it is that high, that doesn't concern me. i like kors right here. all right. still ahead, traders are getting bullish on one retail stock ahead of its earnings report
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this week. that and much more right after the break. in our house, we do just about everything online. and our old internet just wasn't cutting it. so i switched us from u-verse to xfinity. they have the fastest, most reliable internet. which is perfect for me, because i think everything should just work.
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welcome back to "fast money." i'm julia boorstin. trading at 9% on disappointing quarterly results. in addition to a $10 million restructuring charge, the company announcing a $57 million charge on the disappointing results of penguins of madagascar. calling it a challenging year, he expects this year to be break even or better. in the meantime, the company's digital business is growing. it's now breaking out a new media segment. the company also announcing a $185 million deal to sell also leaseback its campus here in glendale, california. melissa? >> julia boorstin, thanks for that. now dreamworks is one of the stocks that rises dramatically whenever there is a whiff, a rumor of it potentially being taken over. with the decline is there more pressure on the management? >> there is more pressure on the management. i don't see if they are looking to sell this.
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i'm not saying that they have any sense that they are. they are not selling from a position of strength. we have seen a few times where there have been talks, fell apart, nothing. they did poorly. the stock traded down. here we are in the pattern again. >> they have to get costs under control. they have to make movies a lot cheaper. jcpenney shares rallied. some are betting the stock can move even higher after reporting earnings later this month. mike with the action. mike? >> it's not uncommon to see unusual options active the day of or day before earnings. and i think what was interesting is here is a name that has moved about 5% on average in the long-term on earnings. recently, it's been more volatile. and right now it's implying a move of about 10% up or down by the end of the week. but the trade that caught my eye was a sale of the weekly 8 1/2 puts for just under 40 cents. somebody sold 9,000 of those. and that is obviously a bet that the stock is going to stay here or go higher by the end of the week since they are willing to
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purchase the stock, 900,000 shares of it at that strike price of 8 1/2. a fairly confident bet in jcpenney that the recent rally in the shares might be sustained through the end of the week. >> thanks for that. and mike khouw for more "options action." check out the 5:30on show on fridays. meantime we have your first move tomorrow when we come back. stay tuned.
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a 401(k) is the most sound way to go. let's talk asset allocation. sure. you seem knowledgeable, professional. would you trust me as your financial advisor? i would. i would indeed. well, let's be clear here. i'm actually a dj. [ dance music plays ] [laughs] no way! i have no financial experience at all. that really is you? if they're not a cfp pro, you just don't know. find a certified financial planner professional who's thoroughly vetted at letsmakeaplan.org. cfp -- work with the highest standard.
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time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. pete najarian? >> well, with all that activity we saw in general electric and the insider buying, got to go with ge. it's going to go up. and giddyup to go daddy! >> grasso? >> southern. it's been beaten up. utilities have been beaten up. i think they're leveling off here. it's down 15%. very quickly it's up 4% just as quickly. southern, i'm still long. >> karen? >> speaking of go daddy, you get all the new websites. that is a good thing for verisign. i like it. >> guy? >> we talk about peewee herman. >> his father. >> was instrumental in creating the israeli air force back in the late -- >> come on. >> oh, come on.
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>> google it. i'm not even making that up. >> is that your final trade? >> no, it's not. hewlett-packard, not honeywell. hpq on the sell-off. >> i'm melissa lee. thanks for watching. see you back here tomorrow at 5 more fast. jim cramer and "mad money" is up next. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always work somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey. i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." all the people want to make friends, i'm trying to save money. my job is not just to entertain but to teach and coach you. call me at 1-800- -- or tweet me @jimcramer. in a bull market, things go right. that's what happens. objections get rebutted, fears are
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