tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC February 27, 2015 4:00am-6:01am EST
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here are your headlines from around the world. >> markets continue their march higher with the dax touching another all time high. these are set to hit february at record level with the dow hitting it's biggest monthly gain ever. >> would be of the topper forming scotts in europe touches a record dividend after expectations. >> the u. k. lender pays out to shareholders for the first time
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in six years as profits rise to 1.8 billion pounds. >> lawmakers face a tough extension on greece's bailout extension. >> you're watching worldwide exchange bringing business news from around the globe. >> let's kick off with markets and the strong month that they have had. really across the globe. i'm kicking off with europe. let's have a look at the dax. germany up 5.9%. we're approaching qe kicking off but the announcement was back in january. quite a surprise germany has been so strong. gdp came in the middle of the month much stronger than expected and concerns over greece as we come closer to the end of the month. just below flat today having touched another record high earlier in today's trade but we're up 5.83% for the month as
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a whole. where the headlines return is a descent return. the best data point we had this month was wage growth at 2.1% seen as very positive for the fundamental economy. worth baring in mind we have seen sterling strengthen by 2.25%. it's almost as good as the dax. now let's switch focus and have a look at asia because the nikkei has been very strong. that's 6.36%. we have comments this morning that suggest once again the liquidity tap will remain turned on in japan. it's offsetting some of that 6.36% gain and the yen off 1.7% this month. how has the u.s. done. >> it was all about out performing the u.s. markets but
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interestingly enough in february we have seen a rebound on wall street. let's take a look at the s&p. you can see it's trading at 2,000, 110 at a record high and so far this month it has gained better than 5% renewed focus on earnings. fundamental driving u.s. markets markets. let's switch over to the dow because that's where we have been really seeing the big moves. it closed at a record high on wednesday. trading at 18,000, 214 up about 6% in the month of february. keep in mind a big part of the rally in the dow has been the energy out performance. oil price is up about 2.7% in the month of peb.february. that provided a rebound to the
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energy stocks because of the sell off in oil. energy a big part of the rally. technology another big part of the rally. it's been on a winning streak. that propelled the nasdaq higher. it's trading at 4,987. it's a bigger number to watch in terms of which stocks have been propelling the nasdaq higher think about apple up about 24%. amazon up about 22%. the best performing stock on the nasdaq 100 so far this year has been netflix up about 40%.
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>> let's talk about your ftse 100 touching new highs. >> it makes you a little bit nervous. on the earnings you'll have no shortage of people that come on the show to say where's ternings?the earnings? where's the earnings growth? we have to be concerned as of how much of the ftse is bought in place of bonds. gone with 1.5% and they chase that yield approaching 4%. that makes you a bit nervous. more than a bit nervous if you like to go elsewhere in order to substitute what they used to in the old asset class. >> oil and gas plays a big part of this. makes up a big part of the ftse
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100. the fact that we have been seeing the big oil majors and gas majors they think it bottomed and that we are higher. it's when you talk about incentivized price. the oil majors now, broadly speaking we have share prices in the u.k. unchanged on the year. fundamentals have deteriorated. fundamentally they don't look that attractive. so many people have gone through this reliable yield trade. that makes me nervous. >> they cut cap ex. should they have cut their dividends as well. >> they should clearly take advantage of the bond market. it's poor results in the equity
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world. it can that same day go to the bond market and they have three to four years to get their houses in order. clearly they're running if negativity like that keeps going. prices might normalize and demand becomes more balanced. will they be looking at prices near 65 or 70? yes. i think the share prices are very very boring. >> do you think it will continue to drive the ftse higher as we get into this area where now it doesn't seem like the u.k. is going to raise rates in 2015. that puts the investor in an interesting situation that can find yields in the u.s. but the
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ftse 100 does have a higher average yield than the s&p 500. >> absolutely. it yields almost 4%. what i should say is this is the most curious thing that i think. we think rates cannot rise. fundamentals are better. this is the first year in six years that western economies can take the rate. seeing will be believing. i do think rates will go up. if you start to shake that a little bit harder a few things can fall out. that's about 9 trillion of money invested in negative yielding bonds. we'll look back in the years to come and say that was a little bit silly. >> okay. we'll continue this conversation but first let's look at markets and how they're trading on this friday morning. >> seema, thank you.
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after the strong month that we've had, the stoxx 600 is looking to finish the month with about 6% of returns. it's unsurprising the last couple of days we have just run out of steam. we're not going higher. we did open .3%. we're just below flat. we had the four month extension to the greek bailout. we have run out of steam. germany having been higher earlier it did top a fresh new all time high. it's now off the highs but basically flat. france is basically flat and athens is giving up a bit of its gains. 2.7%. athens is likely to finish the better performer across all of europe with around 25% of gains. and that will of course be
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coming from a big bounce having sold off earlier. let's look at bonds. interesting moves in the bond market the last couple of days. we started the week 2.1% on the u.s. tenure and janet yellen's comments were interpreted as quite dovish. we're mow back above the 2% level. have we learned that much this week? expectations still pointing to the first raid rise. ten year german bond is an interesting one to point out. 7 year fell below zero for the first time ever and the ten year fell below .3% for the first time ever. it's very low as we approach the beginning of the central bank of europe's bond buying program. in greek, 9.46%. still elevated levels in groo greece but not the highs we saw around about a weeks ago. the euro is bouncing back a little bit today. now the u.s. dollar has given up a little bit of ground as the
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yields came back on the bond and the euro gaining a little bit today. elsewhere we're not seeing too much of a move across the space. worth pointing out the pound which has had a bit of a rally since mid january. we'll talk about that shortly as well. it's 15396. what else is coming up. >> here's what's coming up on worldwide exchange. we tell you about the two stories that sent twitter into melt down. one involving two lamas. that's right. right here. we'll get you the full story. the other one doing well on social media, the dress, is it black or blue or white? and gold? take a look at it. it looks different depending on where you sit and who you are. plus we'll focus on emerging markets. india's biggest economic event of the year. will prime minister modhi's budget deliver? stay tuned for that discussion later in the show.
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somewhere in that pack is a driver that can intimidate the intimidator. a guy that can take the king 7 and make it 8. heck. maybe even 9. make no mistake about it. they're out there. i guarantee it. welcome to the nascar xfinity series. >> it's up 6.5%. the world's second largest aerospace group paid out a record dividend. let's get more on the story live
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in paris. >> good morning, wilfred. the stock is rocketing and despite a new charge. there's some production delays. it's a charge of 550 million euros it's not a surprise back in november. it's earnings could be impacted by additional costs related to the 400 m and it also decided to replace the head of the unit. the company is is targeting a slight increase in operating profit this year excluding exceptional items. it's also planning on increasing it this year including the production oppenheim 30 airbus
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380 which by the way still expected to break even this year. abbott also announced a couple of adjustments for the production is going to increase the production of the flag ship model the 320 to cope with more than 5,000 planes and reduce the production rate as they're going to replace it in two to three years. it's by far the best. >> stefan thank you very much. we're having a similar return on the share price of iag today. that's up 4.3% after beating earnings estimates. the parent company of british airways upgraded it's outlook by over 20%. the company also said it's still interested in acquiring the irish carrier. you can see 4.3% there. stellar return from bank of ireland.
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that's up 7% rallying to the top of the stoxx 600 after full year profits. they have favorable market conditions for ireland and u.k. going forward. let's also have a look at lloyds banking group. that's up 1.7%. it issued it's first dividend as it posted better than expected four year earnings. profit came in at 1.8 billion pounds compared to 450 million last year. >> let's talk more about the banks and where there may be opportunities for you dear viewer. the business editor is with us. before we discuss the banks further help us understand what the big news was when it comes to lloyd. is it the dividend or is there
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more to the story. it's not the dividend that was paid today actually going forward we're looking at doing 60% of the earnings and dividends and that's going to be music to the ears of anyone that might be buying into lloyds. very important for the government big milestone for them. they have very good underlying profit numbers but it continues to have some problems. number one issues with legacy problems problems. it's now up to 12 billion and the question is where's the growth? lend growth hasn't been incredibly big in lloyds and it's so geared to the u.k. market. so is there anywhere left for it to grow when they're so
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concerned about credit. >> i think the dividend is a very important thing in people's minds. our interest in it is clearly we're talking about a market that's no longer the value it was. you would look at the banks as being one of the areas that's cyclical and we think banks probably can't make any money now. and ten years ago we thought they could only make money. it's exactly the right thing. and what they are it's increasing into businesses which means we should be looking at the lower cost of capital. the returns are lower. 10 or 12% is half the value. you think 25 or 30% 12 months from now. i hi they did absolutely everything that was expected of them and we can look to a lot of capital coming out of that business and we can price them
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at 5% yields i think. >> lloyds can sell their final stake that will free them up. we talked yesterday about hill being suspended. that's very clear instructions from the chancellor. the two of them being diverging as we go forward. >> on pay. that clear message was also about pay and that's a very different message to what you had with treasury really backing antonio so it's very diver divergent but on the return of equities respecting a return of equity of 13.5%. so you are starting to see a recovery in what investors could respect. >> but it's the outlook the same as for lloyd. >> yeah, we're probably talking about a 30% discount and 12 months from now it can look a lot more like lloyds.
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we'll be staring down the similar capital position and sil dividend story. we have clearer numbers now but probably at least 4.5 dividend for 2016 for lloyd. we're looking at 90 p. on the current share price we're only talking about 15%. adding a dividend you're going to be heading toward 20. that peels like a reasonable place to be. we need the ftse at 9,000. i don't know how optimistic you are but that's a reasonable place for our money to be. >> thank you very much. one more chat with henry in a minute. thank you for joining us as ever. now the new york banking regulator is holding up between barclay's and u.s. and u.k. authorities. it's unlikely to reach an agreement with the u.s. department of justice unless new york's department of financial services is also involved. potentially delaying a deal. >> now the fed still on course to raise rates this summer. well that's according to pimco.
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i spoke to the uscio and manager of the total refund fund and asked if he was asking for opportunities right here in europe. here's what he had to say. >> we are. it's a direct result of the negative cash deposit rate that the ecb has implemented and that leading to lower yields but also spread convergent throughout europe as you see peripheral country spreads coming in. that's a team we had expressed in the portfolios. it's working well and it will continue to work well in some time. >> but you see opportunity in negative yielding bonds. would you put money to work in some of these bonds that we're seeing. >> we're avoiding negative yielding bonds. there's many better alternatives. that's what we're focused on within the euro zone as well as looking outside the euro zone. >> it's transfixed around the question of when rates will rise. when do you think the fed will
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lift off? >> it's most likely the fed lifts off in the summertime. either in the beginning of summer or at the end of summer. that's the time frame. the recent testimony janet yellen in front of congress really didn't alter our view of that trajectory. the fed very much in our mind is trying to get rid of the sort of calendar guidance that they have been providing through stalts statements. we think the recent comments indicate that they want to get rid of the word patience at the next meeting in marchand they want it to be all about the data going forward with respect to when they lift off. >> so the debate continues over whether, when and if the fed will raise rates in 2015 but let's continue the discussion henry around the negative yielding bonds. this fascinating development taking place in the bond market. why are investors buying bond with negative yields? >> they think draghi will turn
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it up with 1.2 million. i think there's 9 trillion in negative yielding assets and 1.2 trillion in theory dividing it. does he go to sovereign bonds to buy those? it would be high yielding assets assets. we keep coming back to the notion that we think interest rates are 2-9. we have a very good print in the u.k. too and when he says he wants employees to pay their employees more he's doing it because he knows they're already doing it and we think that things to watch for is wage inflation above 3 and that would make a mockery of interest rates to 50 basis points. >> does qe in europe make a big difference? the u. k. outlook? >> it will. the key thing is what we have been out for years.
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there's all sorts of things with regards to a currency. but i think we need to look at the euro and what we concerted from him. which is good things from our company. it's better economic news. >> we want to get your perspective on this. >> what color is this dress? tumblr user asking a question is it white or gold or blue and black? this question ignited a fire storm online. specifically on social media. buzz feed posted the dress controversy had drawn more visitors that their site than ever before. 10 million people read the dress post and more than 900,000 people took the poll. 75% of people see white and goal. not everyone sees that. >> i'd like to be controversial and say i don't see white and gold but all i can see is white and gold. >> but it has lead to quite a
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big discussion on buzz feed as well. but the question we're trying to link it to on the market is not everything is always black and white. the new highs, is that a good thing or bad thing? >> it's a key question. what we see is the key reason we have been there isn't key earnings. it's all been rerating from an area of the market with negative yielding bonds. our advice would be keep it cheep and the market liquidity is not what it was. we're convinced it's taking people to unreliable places. >> thank you for joining us. a pleasure as always. henry dixon from glg partners. one more stress story for you. this custom made calvin kline
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>> the dax hit another record high out of the gate. record levels with the dow posting the biggest monthly gain ever. >> airbus, one of the topper forming stocks in europe. a record dividend after reporting earnings ahead of expectations. >> the dividend in focus at lloyds. the u.k. lender pays out to shareholders for the first time in six years as profits rise to 1.8 billion pounds. >> lawmakers face a tough decision on greece's bailout extension as the vote gets underway.
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>> now it's been a big month for the markets. we'll start here with the shiny yellow medal. it still rally in the beginning of the month as heightened concerns around greece's debt deal sent investors into safe haven assets still about $1,200 an ounce which is a key psychological level. switching over to oil has been a big part of the story. wti crude on track to end it's monthly losing streak at 7. that's one of the reason we have been seeing a rebound trading below $50 barrel. yesterday down as much as 3%. in today's trade up about 2%. >> we had a bit of a bounce back in oil but only about 2 or 3%.
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oil has a big impact on the russian market but only 2% of gains there has lead to much bigger gains as we look at it at the moment. it's up about -- this is this month when in fact it has returned much more than this is showing. the micex up 20% over the course of the month. it also had a boost from also if we look at the rouble because the rouble made the return much stronger. 5.3% we have seen over the course of the month. over the course of the month here in europe that's up 20.1% even though it's giving up a little bit of ground today. >> we've been watching shares of aig moving sharply higher after beating earnings estimates. the parent company increased it's profit outlook by 20%. the company said it is still interested in acquiring the
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irish carrier. what's driving the company to increase it's guidance so much. this is a big move right here. >> there's only one thing. price of oil. it's benefitted from this. willie walsh talking about today upgrading as you said 2015 analysis. that tells you when an airline gets it right in terms of hedging. they really benefit because profits for 2014 were up 81%. slightly better than estimates but that's a lot of money. now all the 1.39 billion, most of that almost all was from british airways but you know he wants to go for this bid. it's a 1.4 billion bid and it's is he going to guarantee slots at heathrow and will this help him with his transatlantic mission. >> when can we get a resolution to this deal?
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>> it's going to be soon. one of the things he's talking about today which has a political angle is jobs. are there going to be more jobs? today he said on the radio there would be some reduction somewhere but essentially it would mean more jobs. that's very important. his 25% is owned by the irish government. so has a political angle definitely but really the only story is oil price, oil price, oil price. >> thank you so much. now switching focus to greece german lawmakers will vote on the extension of greece's bailout plan later today. they're expected to back the deal frustration over the party is mounting. he acknowledged it was a difficult decision but ensured voters they would be able to blackmail euro zone partners. >> they clashed with police since january. about a dozen activists smashed windows and burned cars in greece's capital.
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we'll talk more about greece and what it means for the rest of the euro zone now with charles who is head of macro strategy. earlier this week we got the four month extension which is a big, big step in that sense but four months is not enough to actually solve greece's problem. >> nowhere near it. it's the first step on a very long path. you're seeing the internal issues in terms of having been elected on a platform to face the real world is causing issues. already domestically and then it's getting it through the rest of what ends up being agreed because there is a lot of resistance from certain countries within the euro zone to giving purthfurther assistance to greece. >> are you telling me we'll have the same discussions over the last couple of weeks in june and
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july. >> that's exactly what i'm saying. i don't see how we'll get a clear resolution unless they changed their mind about what give aways they're prepared to give. hast the bigger context with spain and the actions it faces. we're in a scenario where there's this austerity fatigue and countries are looking for ways to create some slippage. now i'm sure you'll see some concessions given to the greek authorities as part of these negotiations but i think the bigger gain here is what concessions are given across the euro zone because countries like spain, you know we have elections later in the year they will want to effectively neuter some of these more extreme political parties by perhaps offering some and that's where the risk lies a lot of
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reform needs to be done. >> france is the key in your eyes. >> absolutely. france can't grow. we had massive reforms and they're not enough. even with the level of the euro at the way it is we're not seeing a proper growth within prance. italy again the problem is structural reforms are just not there. >> there are these structural issues when looking at some of these countries why is the stock trading at a multiyear high? >> qe is the rising tide that floats floats. negative yield then taking a chance on german, even italian
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equities at the kind of dividend yields they're putting forward is almost a no brainerd because the alternative costs you money. >> let's go back to greece for one final question. clearly rushed exit. a forced exit would have been a bad thing for them but would a managed exit actually be what they need? would it be the devaluation they can't get any other way. >> that's a concept talked about a lot in the markets. this idea that you have a euro holiday and they restructure and do what they need. they wiet down their debt and come back in at a competitive level. it's a nice concept but again it's the whole precedent argument. >> why do they come back in? >> it's deemed to be positive to be part of the euro zone to have the free trade and support of the countries around you which
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economic theory would support as a good idea. but that threat of you know if you leave, can you then come back? it is by no means transparent. that is actually viable and the volatility it would create, yeah, it would be a very difficult thing to manage. >> their experience in the euro has been pretty negative. we have to put pause for now. we'll be back for a further chat with charlie in about five minutes time. now the nikkei maintained it's upward momentum in the last trading day of february hitting a fresh 15 year high. let's get the latest live in tokyo. >> though there was some profit taking it helped raise stocks. it rose by .0% on the month showing that production is on a recovery track but for production to continue a steady growth domestic demand is
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secondary and household spending data fell 5.1% for january declining for the 10th straight month. as for the cpi, in mashlgrch, 0.2% increase. it's not a mystery that many are skeptical about trying to reach the 2% inflation target within the deadline of a year or so but regarding these doubts they admitted earlier maybe they could be more relaxed about the timing of reaching inflation of 2% but he followed this with perhaps his strongest explanation yet as to why setting a deadline is crucial in japan, by using a metaphor. saying to really defeat the inflationary mind set imbedded in japan for 15 years speed and trust is necessary just as tremendous speed is needed for a rocket to escape earth's gravity as opposed to a satellite that goes around many orbit. also of note at the conference he wrote on the guest speakers signature book the phrase keep
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one's word reaffirming his commitment of seeing this through. that's all. back to you. >> thank you very much. >> before we go to break check this out. we have some llama drama. u.s. news networks ran pictures of another live chase but this time it was fairly low speed and after two very cute little critters. llamas escaped from a retirement community in arizona and managed to evade capture for 30 minutes. the tv pictures helped drive more than 3,000 tweets a minute. >> i'm not sure i'd describe them as cute. >> they're so cute. >> unattractive but still a very news worthy story. >> this was a great story. it was fun to watch my twitter feed blow up with these pictures and tweets about two llamas on the loose. oh my goodness. >> we'll be back for more of this discussion and much more important markets chat after the short break.
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service providers as utilities. it came after heated lobbying that pitted them against broadband providers. they're ensured for net neutrality. the principle that they should treat all legal data equally and not charge more for netflix that requires more broadband. >> without action to fund the department it will run out of money and shutdown midnight on friday. house republicans are expected to pursue a short time measure that will fund the department for three weeks. senate democrats are pushing for a clean bill. not tied to measures that would hold the executive actions on immigration. >> the fed is on course to raise rates this summer. i spoke exclusively to the uscio and manager of the total return fund and asked if the decline in oil prices generated any opportunities in the energy debt market. >> our view is that energy
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prices probably stabilize somewhere in the $60 range as we head into the second half of this year. that's still going to create a lot of problems for a lot of different business models. it's still very early days in terms of looking at opportunities that may emerge from the credit sector. so we're monitoring it carefully but we think it's a little early to be picking winners as a result of this energy price drop. so it's going to be a part of the market that has a lot of dislocation and later on in the year that's when we think will be better opportunities. >> taking a step back pimco made headlines in 2014. has your strategy where you allocate money, how you manage your fund changed since gross left? if so tell us how. >> it hasn't changed. we have the same processes. we have the same people.
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i've been there for 17 years and a part of that process and build up in different areas of the marketplace. we're continuing to do what we have always done. be 100% focused on performance. we want every product market to deliver on what it has in store which is to offer some of the best in each product category. that's what it's about. we have strong performance and we plan on maybe taningintaining it as we always have. >> there's talk about investors leading traditional funds and going toward etf. are you seeing the rotation? where do you see investors putting their money in the etf space? >> we certainly see there's components of the marketplace and etf space and other strategy going more quickly than others but we always see that in the market. the market goes through cycles where different types of investments fall in and out of favor. so investors will be looking for different vehicles as they always have and money in different sectors of the
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marketplace but we're seeing growth in different areas of our traditional mutual fund offerings as well. it's really early to be calling a big change in terms of investor preference. obviously we're going into a different rate environment but remember we're still forecasting we're going to have a very low rate environment globally for many years. so it means that investors need to think about income. they need to think about capital preservation in a world becoming a little more low risk here as we head into a monetary policy environment. that's where core bond strategies that we offer, whether it's total turn strategies or individual country offerings really come into play. >> let's talk a little bit more about what scott told us yesterday. charles, head of the macro strategy is still with us. rates expected to rise in the summer but the u.s. just reported it fell into deflation last month. could we still see a rate rise
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in the u.s.? i think it's academic. the bit we need to think about is how fast are they going to be? and how the market discounts that. it's difficult for a market to discount a very slow fed and almost inevitably will overcompensate and have to dial that back as things like the inflation data don't support the move. so i think that whether they move in june or we believe later in the year i don't think that's particularly the point. it may be the point for where two trade but for fixed income as an asset class it's the pace argument and the fact that they try and discount so much and that's what we won't see. >> is that not even the main issue?
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the bond markets moved around this week but surely the biggest factor for keeping yields quite low on the u.s. bond market is what they are relative to the rest of the world. >> absolutely but this is something we don't know the measure of yet. the cross market value of the u.s. which is always the dominant market when they were doing qe the rest of the world followed suit. what we don't know is what is it like when the european union, for example, and japan still are doing qe what does that do to the u.s.? now given the rebalancing in the world and how, you know global gdp is rebalancing and the size of the markets has changed, i very much agree with that suppressing u.s. yields particularly at the long end. because, you know with so much at the front end trading in negative, any kind of positive return, you know five year i think trading around 146 or something in the u.s. at the moment, that looks very appeal
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appealing against paying away 20 basis points in europe. >> let's quickly touch on the u.s. dollar as well. a massive rally last year continuing into early january but since then giving up quite a lot of ground. the structural argument is strong. is it a slight direction or is there fundamental weakness? >> there's fundamental reasons for the dollar to remain strong but we've seen a long move. and there's counter arguments. it's doing qe but still has very strong current account circles and strong fdi flow. so i think the argument for stronger dollar is still valid and we will see further dollar strength but i think it will be much more muted and sedate than what we got used to last year. >> thank you for now. stick with us. we'll have time for one more quick chat shortly. russia's gas problems received $50 million from the ukrainian energy if i recall easing fears were potential supply disruptions to europe but the
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amount is enough to cover one days worth of supplies. steve spoke to the ceo and asked him about the on going pay dispute. >> russian gas would equal 0. that was mentioned by both mr. miller and mr. putin many times. it was a public position which is in line with it. that's why we he always kept certain amount of prepared gas. how do you find the negotiation with mr. miller? is it normal business relations with two companies? or do you belief there's a political bias to it? >> i believe there is definitely a much wider agenda than just gas and business. and it's not only about that.
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if you look at many european gas importers that were cut by 40% since september and we can judge about this because we can see rapid decrease in transit which cannot be replaced by flows in gas, you can assess what is going on. they're trying to cut gas supply to the eu to make sure that ukraine will not be able to source enough gas from that. it's quite costly strategy. it's very inefficient because there's always other suppliers that would be willing to replace it and that's going on and it destroyed the reputation as the reliable supplier because when you cut your customer and you go in to explain that is something
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that we should not do any good for the relationship. however it is being done and we don't see any of that -- i don't know if any person would be managing any gas supplier he would try to keep market share and make business profitable and long-term predictable. >> do you see an immediate threat to gas suppliers from russia to ukraine? do you believe the taps will be turned up? >> honestly? we don't know. we know what they will do have the beginning of march because for us it's not only to us and firstly it's most important not to us but to eu that they will follow the agreement that was breeched. you cannot expect anything from them. >> we have one flash out of the
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cremlin this morning as well. russia's president putin cut the salaries of the presidential administration by 10%. so a small cut in the wage overall. i wonder if that's all the money that they manage to take home. anyway let's continue this questioning with charles, head of macro strategies. greek issues haven't had that big of an impact on overall european markets. russia had a bigger impact. if we see the ceasefire fail to hold could that be a spot to see european markets sell off? >> it will undermine the risk argument. you have to put it in the context, you said earlier, it's all about the oil price when you're talking about it. it's the same. it's all about the energy complex and commodities. while the pricing remains on the offensive it's difficult to build a particularly constructive argument for russia. worsened along by the conflict
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in ukraine. if that reintensifies that's bound to be risk of and certainly with the equity markets where they are could create a short-term risk off episode in european equity indices across the board but is it a longer term concern? not unless there's a major escalation. it's more just a short-term. almost a profit taking excuse. >> when you take a look at the russian markets they're outperforming up about 12%. versus the u.s. one of the best performing currencies in the u. s. this is coming off being the worst performing currency in 2014. >> i think that's it. that's won the stabilization in the oil price. we stopped seeing oil go down but at the same time we had this broader environment where there was some hope of a ceasefire. so you put the two together that's something that's going to help a market that's been beaten up very badly beforehand but,
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you know i think there's still a lot to be cautious going forward and equally there's a lot of potential to be made if and when there's a proper resolution to the conflict. >> thank you very much for joining us as ever. that was charlie, head of macro strategy. >> next up the fcc voted on net neutrality. so who are the winners and losers? coming up next we'll speak toen expert taking you through the winners and losers. that's coming up next.
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welcome to worldwide exchange everyone. happy friday. i'm seema mody. >> i'm wilfred frost. here are your headlines from around the world. >> u.s. futures slightly lower but the dow is on track to end the month with the biggest monthly gain ever. >> more pain for jcpenney after casting doubt on the group's recovery plan. >> a different story for grap. rising solid earnings and higher dividend but the west coast port strike and stronger dollar could end profit going forward. >> the fcc votes to regulate the internet as a public utility but
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they're expected to fight back in court. >> you're watching worldwide exchange, bringing you business news from around the globe. >> and let's take a look at u.s. futures. interestingly enough arrows pointing to a lower open. this after the nasdaq did close at a fresh 15 year high. just about 14 points away from breaking 5,000. the russell 2,000, the small cap index also garnering a lot of attention from investors. it did hit a new all time high. the s&p 500 falling for the second straight day and is flat on the week but the big take away is of course the testimony from janet yellen indicating that rates perhaps will rise later rather than sooner. at least that's what the market interpreted those comments to be taking a look at the ftse cnbc global 300 index as we wrap up
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the month of february, we have been seeing big market moves across the world. the nikkei the japanese index at a 15 year high. the russian micex picking up momentum and u.s. markets have been trading in record high territory. what does it all mean for the cnbc global 300 index? we're down about 7 points on the day. closer to session lows. perhaps some of that has to do with european markets we'll show you on the screen right now. we opened in the green but investors taking profits as we end the month of february. keep in mind we have been seeing record highs here in europe. in fact the dax did trade at a record high just yesterday. down about 15 points in european trade and the cac 40 down 7 points. renewed concerns around greece and we have been seeing volatility in the greek equity market and greek debt market. the athens ase down about 3.5%.
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but once again the story being shown in the bond market versus the equity market. >> a little bit of profit taking the last couple of sessions because the stock 600 going to finish over 6% of gains in february. a strong market over the course of the last month here in europe. let's look in on the bond market. interesting moves during the course of this week on the u.s. ten year because we started the week around 2.1%. we fell back below 2% as the bond market interpreted a lot of what janet yellen said this week as dovish. but we're finishing 2.045 and most people's rate rise expectations didn't move depending on what the bond market was doing -- despite what the bond market was doing and people suggested we might see a first rate rise in june or if not in september. german ten year yield did fall below yesterday for the first time ever. we also saw the seven year fall below zero yesterday but recovered a bit of that ground, .33. we're at 9.46. we briefly dip below 9% at one
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point this week but certainly improved from last week above 10%. elevated compared to the rest of the europe. the u.s. dollar gave up a bit of ground this week following janet yellen's come meants yellen's comments. flat against the yen today. flat against the rouble and the sterling is at 1538. it's down a bit today but a strong four or five weeks. oil has been moving around again as usual. wti has fallen below 50 this week. it's bouncing back today but it's at 49.5 and brent 61.6. it's up 2.6%. just covering a bit of ground after a few soft days. seema, back to you. >> let's get everyone a run down of what to watch this trading day. the second estimate of q-4 gdp
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numbers are out with analysts predicting a pull back of 2.6%. at 10:00 a.m. we'll get the numbers for pending home sales and the final numbers on consumer sentiment. three fed officials will be speaking in new york cleveland, the fed president stanley fisher and keep an eye on icon enterprises. they'll be reporting earnings before the bell but as the earnings season comes to an end there seems to be positive reaction. there were concerns about a stronger dollar impacting some of the multinationals that do business overseas but again we did see an up tick in profitability as well as revenue growth. technology seeing a 20% jump? year over year revenues. there's companies seeing organic revenue growth and that's what the market wants. >> yeah i think earnings-based rallies in stock markets are fine and that's great.
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we have seen that from some of the sectors and stocks but when we see european japanese and u.s. equity markets are in and around record highs, one thing shouts out to me and that's partly this is fuelled by monetary easing but more importantly it's fuelled by people having nowhere else to put money but the equity markets. that makes you fearful of the new highs. >> as you pointed out we continue to see record low bond yields and doesn't seem like that's going to change any time soon as the ecb gets ready to kick off qe in march. and the markets seeing that as a fed rate hike at the end of the year. perhaps earlier. >> absolutely. the dax hit record highs and touch one earlier today before coming off of it. traditionally that would be paired with yields going up but the opposite is happening because qe is about to start but it does make you little bit uneasy with new record highs. sort of related to this topic we're going to have a bit of fun here. let's have a look at this picture.
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what color do you think this dress is? because this caused issues yesterday on social media. a tumblr user asked is it white and gold or is it black and blue? this question ignited a fire storm online. buzz feed posted the dress controversy had drawn more visitors that their site than ever before. 10 million people read the dress post and over 900,000 took the poll. about 75% see white and gold. the rest see black and blue and then of course like the mystery dress, market perception is rarely black and white. so the question we're asking you today, how do you perceive fresh highs for global market? is it time to buy, sell or hold? join the conversation here at worldwide exchange. worldwide at cnbc.com or on twitter at cnbcwx. let's take a look at some of today's other top stories. jcpenney shares fell 10% in after hours trading after the
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clothing retailer failed to meet analyst expectations for the holiday period. they broke even missing estimates for profits of 11 cents a share. on the bright side sales came in at 3.9 billion up from 3.78 billion from the sail period in 2013. let's have a look at the share prices. you can see down significantly some 13%. >> all right let's take a look at gap. shares rose almost 3% in after hours trade after beating earnings estimates by 1 cent but the company tempered expectations for 2015 warning over the negative impact from delays caused by the west coast port slow down. that's been a big concern for some retailers. not just gap. taking a look at shares up about 4.5%. >> sears plans to split up stores into a separate company by june. they posted a loss over the 2014 holiday season with revenues
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falling over 20%. share prices are down .7% in today's trade. >> the fcc has voted to regulate the internet as a utility approving strict rules to preserve net neutrality. >> it was the end of a long hard fought battle over the future of the internet as they voted 3-2 to pass new rules that would block internet companies from charging more money to certain websites or slowing speeds for others. >> the ayes have it. >> before a standing room only crowd the fcc for the first time voted to regulate the internet like a utility and to enforce so-called net neutrality. >> the fight pit some big content producing firms like netflix and twitter against some of the big internet broadband server providers and it's also provokes some sharp divisions here on the commission itself.
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>> the internet is a powerful force for freedom so it's sad to witness the attempt to replace that freedom with government control. >> but the deciding vote came from tom wheeler who was prodded along by president obama late last year. >> this is no more a plan to regulate the internet than the first amendment is a plan to regulate free speech. they both stand for the same concept openness expression and an absence of gate keepers telling people what they can do where they can go, and what they can think. >> last year protesters blocked the fcc chairman's drive way as an effort to push him toward this fcc vote. so for now the internet activists won a big victory.
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but the battle is likely to move to the courts as they challenge the rules on legal grounds. >> let's talk more about this decision made by the fcc. a pleasure to have you on this friday. >> thank you. >> the internet is a powerful source of freedom. enforcing net neutrality. was that the right move by the fcc? >> they responded to the broadband plan and to the public that were in the fast lane access because they see it as stopping the internet from being free and open. the problem is any type of regulation and make no mistake, this is a type of regulation also has unintended side effects. he says broadband prices for
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consumers may rise and speeds may fall. prices may rise because states can levy taxes once services are classified as title 2 and speeds may fall because extra regulation means less incentive to invest. >> is there a lesson we can draw from the fact that the apples and googles of this world are far bigger than the at&ts and vodafones? >> we're witnessing a monumental regulatory decision but it's a game of chess. the internet companies like apple, facebook and google and netflix on one side and the broadband service providers like comcast, at&t and verizon on the other. on this ground the internet company versus won. and the fcc loses no matter what. if they vote in favor of net neutrality like they just did it's possible broadband speeds
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will fall and they'll be criticized for that. if the fcc went did the opposite of what they did then they would be accused of throttling the implemented. >> can we say then that the speeds have already fallen in the europe and u. s. there hasn't been enough investment because they can't be seen to monetize that sufficiently. >> well, net neutrality in some countries is a legal requirement. holland for example. in america it's always been a regulatory principle that the industry has followed. it's only yesterday that it was enshrineed in law. people thought they had the authority to enforce net neutrality for many years. in january 2014 verizon challenged this level of authority and the courts ruled in favor of verizon forcing the fcc to make this decision. >> will this debate over the future of the internet continue despite the fcc making that
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ruling yesterday on net new tral neutrality. >> yes it won't go away. they're talking about suing the fcc and second if consumers see these unintended side effects, higher prices and lower speeds they won't be happy next year. >> what does this mean for stocks in the u.s.? >> it has huge implications for stocks. they'll have to send their traffic on a network. so they're likely to rise and broadband service providers are going to be a hit. >> thank you so much and please stick with us because we want to discuss some of the other big moves that we have been seeing in the technology space. coming up though, i have been speaking to scott about the investment outlook. find out why he sees you
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opportunity here in europe. that's coming up straight after this break. opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances.
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disappointing holiday season but gap moving higher despite a lackluster forecast. the fcc votes to regulate the internet as a utility but the battle could be far from over. >> let's bring you today's biggest individual movers. airbus is flying at the top of the french market after posting a 59% jump in profits. the world's second largest aerospace group paid out a record dividend. iag is up 2.86%. just pair a few of those gains coming after earnings beat estimates. they upgraded the 2015 profit outlook over 20%. they're still interested in acquiring irish carrier air. bank of ireland is up 6.25% at the top overall after the lender
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swung to a four year profit. lloyds is up about half a percent. it issued it's first dividend since they posted better than expected full year earningings. profits before tax at 1.8 billion pounds compared to 450 million last year. the lender was boosted by 60% drop in impairment charges. seema. >> back to central bank policy because that's driving markets higher and the fed could be on course to raise rates this summer. that's at least what pimco is saying. i spoke to the fund managers uscio and manager of the total return fund and began by asking him if he was looking for opportunities right here in europe. >> yes, we are. it's a direct result of the negative cash deposit rates that the ecb has implemented and that's leading to yes lower yields but also spread convergence throughout europe as you see spreads coming in
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relative to core europe. that's a theme we had expressed in the portfolio. it's worked well. it will continue to work well for some time. >> do you see opportunity in negative yielding bonds? would you put money to work in some of the sovereign bonds we're seeing in. >> no we're avoiding negative yielding bonds and even though they can become more negative yielding bonds there's many better alternatives. that's what we're focused on in the euro zone as well as looking outside the euro zone. >> the u.s. bond market is transfixed on whether rates will rise. when do you think the fed will aft off? >> it's more likely the fed lifts off in the summertime. either the beginning of summer or the end of summer. but that's the time frame. the recent testimony didn't alter our view of that trajectory. the fed is trying to get rid of the guidance they have been providing through statements and
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the use of code words like patience. so we think the recent comments indicate that they want to get rid of the word patience at the next meeting in marchand they want it to be all about the data going forward with respect to when they lift off. >> so rates could rise in summer but the market expects a rate hike this year. >> we're looking at very short-term moves of course but the bond market was initially interpreted as dovish this week because yields came back from 2.1% to 1.95. we're now back above 2%. we're focussing a lot on short-term things. most of those banking estimates stuck to the june rate hike estimate. >> it's interesting when you look at the bond market in the u.s. versus europe. the u.s. did fall into deflation last month and we saw the yield go above 2% where as in europe we're seeing deflation across the board. yields at record lows. a very different story and
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reaction to deflation. >> things getting much lower because we're about to have the bond buying starting. >> don't get me started on negative yield which is is a fascinating story in itself. still to come on the show the wait could finally be over. speculation is growing that the apple watch could alive in less than two weeks. we'll discuss that coming up after this break.
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♪ its effects on society really came about because, not because i was selfish and wanted one for myself, which i did. its because i had, had a passion. my whole life i wanted to teach myself to build computers. i wanted to build these things for free. i just wanted to do it for the world and you know when you want something, that's what you do the best. ♪ ♪
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apple has delivered invitations to a march 9th event expected to mark the launch of the apple watch. the invitation reads spring forward which is believed to be a reference today light savings time when clocks change on march 8th. apple shares closed up 1.3% in yesterday's trade. we're going to talk a little bit more now about apple with cyrus who is still with us. we're pretty certain this is going to be the launch of the apple watch. is that a game changer for the stock price? >> i don't think it's an immediate gail changer. sales will take time to ramp up but it shows that am has a portfolio churning out new products. we're getting apple watch in a couple of weeks. we may get something to do with internet tv later this year and two things to do with the internet of things. >> the price action in apple
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though has been notable. it's up 22% year to date. the nasdaq would not be flirting with 5,000 had it not been for apples out performance. the question is is the stock getting overvalued at these levels. >> before you answer a quick flash, the german lower house of parliament has approved the greek bailout extension. so an important, all be it expected but important development we got this morning. more on that later. >> i don't think we have seen consumer electronics company with such a string of products than sony about 20 or 25 years ago. because apple has such a staple of products i don't think it's overvalued at the moment. >> they continue to rise higher because of the new products that could add potential upside. >> apple is not just a consumer electronics company it's an
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ecosystem. all the other products work with that product. that is based on the iphone. >> but there is competition in the space. i'm headed to mobile world congress next week and there's players from china and india that offer similar quality when it comes to operating system and features. who says these players can't steal market share. >> i think there's one difference. that's that everything works seem leslie seamlessly with apple. it designs the chips and hardware and software content. >> thank you so much. still to come here on worldwide exchange, it's modhi's big moment. we'll discuss shortly.
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>> you're watching worldwide exchange. >> here are your headlines from around the world. >> u.s. futures pointing lower but the dow is on track to end the month with it's biggest monthly gain ever. >> more pain for jcpenney. doubt on the group's recovery plan. >> a different story for gap. shares rise on solid earnings and a higher dividend but the retail giant warned a stronger dollar could dent profitability going forward. >> it's the end of an era as the fcc votes to regulate the internet as a public utility but
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they're expected to fight back in court. >> you're watching worldwide exchange bringing you business news from around the globe. >> straight to the markets after a rough start to the euro stocks have rebounded sharply in the month of february. both the dow and s&p 500 are on track for the best monthly performance since october 2011 while the nasdaq is up 7% so far a big run. will it break 5,000? that's the big question. futures pointing to a lower open. let's look at european markets. we got the news that the lower house in germany did approve the greece bailout deal. european markets despite the positive news trading lower. we should point out european markets this year have the outperforming u. s. markets. the german dax, the ftse 100 hitting new highs with fwrees getting the four month extension
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in hopes that it will stimulate the euro zone. that's been providing fuel to this equity rally but here on the last trading day of february. maybe investors taking some profits here. the ftse 100 down about 11 points. the german markets down 9 and the cac 40 down about 7 points. new concerns around greece has been sending some investors out of the greek equity market. it's down in today's trade by 3.8%. >> thanks seema. let's have a look at asian markets today. the nikkei has gone up only a tiny amount of a 1% move yesterday that saw a nikkei hit a 15 year high. that came after news that the civil service pension fund would sharply increase it's allocation to domestic equities. we had chinese equities laeping around 2% yesterday. today they're offsetting that move. the australian markets had a
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strong run over the course of the last month itself and the currency which did sell off during february when the rate cut that we had came has indeed recovered itself. so strong month for australian equities and the currency as well. >> let's also focus in on india. ib ves tos are calling it the biggest economic event of the year. modi promised reform but can he deliver? investors will be looking through india's annual budget which will be unveiled tomorrow and ahead of the market the stock market is on fire gaining 40% over the past one year. joining us to discuss is jeff. thank you for joining us this morning. before we get into what to expect from modhi tomorrow tell us how important is this budget in comparison to other years? it's very important. it's going to set the program of
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fiscal policy going forward. the balance of government spending increases versus tax changes. in some sense it's going to set the style of fiscal policy in line with what they're trying to do on the structural reform process. i think it's going to set the tone on the sort of fiscal policy you're going to have with structural reform in mind. >> yeah because so far since becoming prime minister in may of 2014 he hasn't done a lot. sure he's been promising reform but the question is can he actually put together policies that will solve the painfully visible challenges including policy, pollution, and infrastructure. >> we believe he will be able to do that. we think it's rather harsh to criticize the government too much because there is a lot to do and some of these programs and some of these initiatives are going to take a very long time to work their way through,
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for example, the flag ship fiscal reform to harmonize across the country is coming in at the beginning of 2016 and not before then and some of the other issues poverty, poor infrastructure, as you say, they are really long-term problems. meanwhile the economy is growing very strongly. so i think you have to give the government the benefit of the doubt here. >> we've seen the equity market we're looking at now up 41% over the last 12 months. is that justified given that we haven't really seen all the concrete actions quite yet? we've just got this promise of reform and expectation of it. but we haven't seen enough to justify 40% returns have we? >> there's no doubt the market has done well but the point we want to make about india is its one of the best corporate sector stories in the emerging markets. earnings growth is about 15%.
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the rate of return equities is relatively high so the expression i use is its an expensive market that should be expensive in the context of some challenging corporate sector environments around emerging markets so the danger would be that having seen the market do very well, it's begun to flatten off lately to be fair and were the growth not to pick up you would rapidly get a correction. but the promise of the perform and good performance of the corporate sector make this a stand out market with respect to the emerging market environment. >> which market do you see posting bigger gains at the end of 2015? will it be emerging markets or developed markets like the u.k. and the u.s.? where do we see the bigger return? >> well we do expect bigger returns to be in the developed markets. that's primarily because of what's going on in europe.
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you mention that in your introduction. the european marks have a lot of tail winds for them either now. with respect to emerging markets the challenge is going to be -- we've been arguing this all year. the challenge is going to be emerging from a really draedeadful period of lack of earnings growth. if we start to see improving earnings growth which is partly on the back of lower oil prices. the impact that will have on oil importing countries and companies we'll see earnings do better and the markets to do better but i would not be surprised to find europe in particular would be out performing emerging markets taking 2015 as a whole. >> stick with us. we want to talk about how central bank policy will change the emerging market picture. hets get you up to speed on some of the top stories at this hour. retail in focus. jcpenney shares falling 10% after the retailer failed to meet expectations for holiday
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period. the company broke even for the fourth quarter missing estimates for profit of 11 cents a share. on the bright side sales came in at 3.9 billion dollars up from 3.7 million in 2013. jcpenney a big loser down 12.8% in frankfurt. >> cap shares rose almost 3% after beating eps estimates by onecent but the company tempered expectations for 2015 warning over the negative impact for delays caused by west coast port slow down. gap shares are up around 4.5% in trade today. >> yeah meanwhile sears plans to split off up to 300 of its topper forming stores into a separate company by june. sears posted a loss of $159 million over the 2014 holiday season with revenues falling over 24%. take a look at the price action many shares of sears which will be up in just a second. down just fractionally in
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>> all right. it has been a big month for the equity markets. let's take you through the rebound we've been seeing on wall street. upbeat earnings. mostly positive economic data sent u.s. stocks higher. the s&p 500 has been trading in record high territory up about 5.8% in the month of february. take a look at the dow also in record high territory trading at -- let's see, 18,214. up just about 6%. keep in mind energy a big part of the story given that we have been seeing a little bit of stabilization in oil prices that has sent some of the energy stocks higher and that has pushed the dow jones industrial higher but what are we really focussing on. it's the nasdaq. it's making its march to 5,000. it could break that milestone level. a level it hasn't traded at since march of 2000. that could be today when we see it surpass that milestone. it's trading at 4,987. in terms of stocks propelling the index higher netflix, best
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performing stock in the nasdaq 100 so far this year up about 40%. apple of course has played a pivitol role up about 22%. keep in mind when we take a look at apple nasdaq 100 is up about 6% so far. 2-thirds of its gains all apple. if it wasn't for apple we would not be seeing the nasdaq flirt with these 5,000 levels. >> it's not all about that. i learned what seema's middle name is. seema nasdaq mody. that's her middle name. it's been a strong month for european and asian equities as well. the dax is up 5.8%. it did touch another new high this morning. it's just come off the highs. now down 10 basis points. up 5.8% for the month as a whole. offset by three quarters of a percent decline in the euro. let's also look at the ftse 100 where the move in the equity
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market is more muted but still positive. that is around a 2.25% rise. in dollar terms they're pretty much the same this month. let's also look at the nikkei which returned around 6.3% over the course of the month. that is offset slightly by 1.7% decline in the end. overall the best performing market in the month of february in europe is greece. that's up just over 20% of course. a very volatile month as well for greece coming off lows that we saw earlier in january. seema. >> we have been asking our viewers how do you perceive these fresh highs for global markets? is it time to buy, sell or hold? we have been getting your tweets. ted darling believes it's time to buy them and sell u.s. equities and hold a bit of cash. we have been seeing u.s. stocks trade at record highs. is it time to cut your winners? take your winners out of the
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basket and diverse identify yourify your portfolio. you can tweet us at cnbcwx. >> the house and senate are expected to vote on a bill that will continue to fund the department of homeland security on friday but the outcome of that vote is anything but certain. let's go out to landon in washington with all the latest. over to you. >> hey wilfred. good morning to you. house republicans would like to see a plan that would extend funding to the department of homeland security for three weeks. senate democrats say that's a nonstarter. one way or another some kind of bill will have to be passed or the department will run out of money at midnight tonight. house gop members were meeting behind closed doors late thursday night and conservatives mt. conference are pushing for a short-term extension that would allow them to continue the fight against the president's executive orders on immigration into next month. house members said they hope to pass a stop gap bill that would overt a shutdown and take the bill into conference with the
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senate. it would merge house and senate bills into a product but they have no intention of supporting any type of short-term plan. the senate appears ready to pass a clean funding bill. one with no measures that would halt the president's actions on immigration. they're slated for friday morning but with tempers flairing the final outcome remains to be seen. back to you. >> thank you very much. >> german lawmakers approved the graek bailout extension with overwhelming support. 542 lawmakers voted in favor of the measure compared to 32 that voted against it. ahead of the vote the german finance minister acknowledged it was a difficult decision but assured voters that athens would not be able to blackmail it's euro zone partners. a positive development. >> a positive but expected one as highlighted by the scale of the vote. the fcc voted to implemented new
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rules that would treat internet service providers as public utilities. it came after heated lobbying which pitted them against broadband providers. they're designed to ensure net neutrality. the principle of companies should treat all legal data equally and not charge for more services like netflix that require more broadband. before we go to break, global markets pair some gains but the dow is on course for the best monthly gain ever. a tale of two retail earnings. jcpenney sinks after disappointing holiday sales but gap moves higher despite a lackluster forecast. >> and the fcc voting to regulate the internet as a you till -- utility but the battle could be far from over.
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>> i spoke to the fund manager's cio and manager of the total refund return fund and began asking if he's looking for opportunities in europe. >> we are. it's a direct result of the negative deposit rates the ecb implemented. that's lower yields but also spread convergence throughout europe. you see spreads coming in relative for europe. so that's a theme we had expressed in the portfolios. it will continue to work well for some time. >> but you see opportunity in negative yielding bonds. would you put money to work in some of the bonds that we're seeing? >> no, we're obviously avoiding negative yielding bonds. even though they can become more negative yielding bonds there's many that are alternatives. that's what we're focused on as well as looking outside the euro
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zone. >> the bond market is transfixed with when they might rise. >> most likely the fed lifts off in the summertime. that's really the time frame. the recent testimony janet yellen in front of congress really didn't alter our view of that trajectory. the fed is very much in our mind trying to get rid of the calendar guy dance that they have been providing through statements and the use of code words like patience. so you know we think the recent comments indicate that they want to get rid of the word patience at the next meeting in marchand they want it to be all about the data going forward with respect to when they lift off. >> a rate rise in summer what does that mean from global markets? jeff dennis is still with us on worldwide exchange. what kind of sell off are you potentially anticipating in emerging markets if janet yellen
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does raise rates this year? >> i don't think it will have anything like such a big effect as particularly done in the past. first of all it is going to get very well signalled, the rate hikes when they start. we're not particularly bullish about the dollar this year and a flattish dollar against the emerging markets will be beneficial and also evaluation levels in emerging markets are relatively low compared to what you have seen in the past when the fed has raised rates and caused problems. so i don't think we're really looking for a major negative response to the fed moving rates at all. >> and as you say it's been very well telegraphed had the time and it will also happen if the u.s. economy is strong. when you look at your emerging market options what are the best plays to a strong u.s. economy. >> the best ones are within latin america, mexico above all
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but also a small economy which exports a lot to the u. s. which is columbia. outside of latin america it's the big developed companies if you like in asia taiwan and korea are two of the ones you can highlight. everyone exports to a full extent. >> how much are the likes of taiwan and korea suffering from such a weak yen? >> it's nothing like such a problem for taiwan as for korea. it's been an enormous problem for korea because of the competition for korean products within japan. the competition with japanese products in third markets and it's very simple in our view. if the yen is going down against the dollar it either squeezes company margins or makes them harder to sell in markets like japan unless the one goes down as well. that's what the one has been
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doing lately. the korean market is a poor performer. one of the big factors has been the weakness of the yen. it's a real challenge for korean companies in our opinion. >> thank you for joining us this morning. much appreciated. jeff dennis head of emerging market equity strategy. let's give you a run down of what to watch this trading day in the u.s. q-4 gdp numbers are out at 8:30 eastern with a pull back at 2.6%. we'll get pending home sales and consumer sentiment. three fed officials will be speaking in new york. loretta mester bill dudly and stanley fisher. icahn enterprises will report before the opening bell as well. >> did you moe the nasdaq is up about 7% so far this month. it's close to breaking 5,000. >> what's the nasdaq? >> this index that the world watches. will it break that level? let's get more insight from the
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president of trader audio.com. ben you're looking at some of the winners like apple up 22%. amazon up 24%. once the nasdaq does break 5,000 will that give investors a reason to sell the winners? >> well wait a minute. you're getting ahead of yourself. was it does break 5,000, there should be an if in there. especially in the tech sector we have been looking for this move to be the catalyst if you will or at least one of the supporting factors and contributing factors up into the new all time highs and i think it's a very good possibility but that's still a ways aaway. so i they considering the strength we're seeing now you have to give the benefit of the doubt. although we have been seeing this low energy type market it's been fuelled by tech sectors. it's been fuelled by the russell as welseying trade up above that 1200 level.
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sustained trade with energy. >> why bearish on the tech sector? >> i'm not. i've been bullish on it. the tech sector, if you're looking at the nasdaq i think that you're really teeter or just hoping that apple continues to be very strong through this 130 into the 150 areas which is what it would really take in my opinion to see that 5,000 level but it's so heavily waited and based on as mentioned some of the bigger names, the apple, the amazon, that you're waiting and hoping that those come through but the energy to the upside the value process to the upside that's what we're seeing. higher highs, higher lows. >> interest view on tech. traders audio.com.
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>> the dow and s&p 500 on pace for the best february since 1998. maybe february is now the month we need for an up year. uncle sam's top adversary, why americans no longer see china as public enemy number one. we'll tell you who does top the list now and why this changing sentiment matters to investors. and synchronize your watches. the countdown is on to a major unveil announcement at apple that i think we thought would be in april. now it might be in march. it's february 27th though today, 2015 and squawk box begins right now.
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>> live from new york where business never sleeps this is squawk box. ♪ >> good evening, welcome to squawk box here on cnbc. happy friday. andrew is enjoying some time off today. >> wait a minute it's friday. >> yeah. >> and an true's off. >> yeah. >> wow. >> big weekend already. he's starting his three day weekend. >> wow. the only thing about fridays i don't like they're too close to monday. >> no this is about the best time of the week right now. you're in the home stretch here. you got two days that you can sleep in. >> thursday afternoon. >> no no. friday morning is the best for me. >> the anticipation of friday. friday is too close to sunday. >> but friday i'm already up. once you're up on friday you're done with the week. >> so sunday not the worst. >> sunday afternoon. >> yeah. >> anyway folks if you haven't heard about this already a dress has broken
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