>> $65 million a month, that's quite a big -- yeah, that's not bad. not bad. you know, gave up 5,000, but we've got an exclusive with the coo of the nasdaq, landlord, on the outlook for the ipo pipeline. >> that's huge, straight to you. "fast money" starts right now. live from the markets overlooking new york city's time square, i'm melissa lee. tim, steve, brian, and guy, mark is pulling back today with the nasdaq giving up that 5,000 milestone. we are sitting down for the first on cnbc interview with bob on the significance of 5 k and the outlook. alibaba hitting it's lowest level since going public. whether baba is broken. first to the real mover, and that was oil. crude bouncing back above the $50,000 level. why did this capture this so much? on the conference call today,

midafternoon, everybody said oil, oil, oil was of interest. >> made a comment that was covering his oil, and in our world, he's not known i think to most people, the kmod i did world, he is sort of the warren buffett. when he says something like that. take notice. that was some of the geopolitical stuff going on. obviously timmy's been saying for a while it's bottom in a short term. it makes you have to stop and think for the time being. i don't think we have. i'd billion hard pressed to believe he has caught the absolute bottom. in short term, you're going to get a bounce here. >> the letter he sent out said that he might be premature on this. he himself hedged a little bit here. but i think at first, it's prudent to cover your shorts after you had this huge move down. let's look if anything fundamentally changed in the oil market. we're still oversupplied, weak demand, and federal reserve that's intent on raising rates, probably a stronger dollar. that's not so say in the short term you might get a short covering rally or correction. i still think i'm in the guy camp where it goes lower before

higher. >> the risk is to the upside in oil at this point? >> i think the next move is probably down five, seven percent. oil's rally 28% off the low. i mean, this isn't a guy that's necessarily nailed it. and i do think we have a place here where oil prices have bottomed. i said that a month ago. i think you're in a place here where you have to listen to inventory numbers. the iran deal, or lack thereof today i think is a bigger part of the oil rally. the fact that be luke oil says russia's down 8% in two years. i think it could be more than that. these are the things that people should be focussing on. these are the reasons -- >> there's two political reasons were the reason why. why didn't we see a sharp move in brent as wti today? >> you saw the spread widening out. that's my call. the wti brent spread goes to $18 by the summer when you actually get a through a lot of the supply disruption issues. i think actually the gulf continues to pump. as everybody says, it won't change in the short term.

>> short term, what really affected the oil prices, inventories are out tomorrow, sell side shop, research shop i should say yesterday said that the inventories, the glut, the oversupply will be half of what the estimates are. that was near term why oil spiked. virginia lair row, refiners, that's where you should be here. >> i agree. and bank of america conference, today's the 3rd, right? bank of america refining conference you have to take a look at, valero had a big move today. same terms, nine and a half, ten times forward earnings. i think both stocks still feel like they want to make a move higher. >> >> exxonmobile also has its day tomorrow allegedly they are going to unveil their cap ex plans, is that an issue? >> probably an issue, yeah, i'm not sure it'll be a driver for the stock necessarily. i think for me, the oil patch if you want to be on the long side of it, it's a no-touch right now. stay away from the names. definitely stay away from the drillers. >> even the refiners? >> refiners maybe because they

have an advantage, right? >> refiners up 21%. still makes sense for them because they're costs, even if they rise a little bit here. input costs are really historically low. >> buying something 21% in a market that i think is correcting and could go lower. i would match rather be short some of the countries that will do well on low oil which would be mexico and which would be brazil. >> okay. let's hit the volatility index here. better known as the fear gauge. spiking today's session and tim's been watching since way back in september. he went to the smart board, sauntered over, what did you look at? >> i did. the vicks is pricing in fed fear. ultimately we have a fed payroll on friday. it's a non-farm payroll. markets got too high, when it gets too low, markets sell off. let's go to the chart here. this is the s&p mapped against the v rks ix. it i think leads the snp. as we see it tracking higher here, notice this level here on the right hand side is about 13

on the vix. that's where we got down to today. i think we see significant bottoms in the vix over the last six months. and we see it multiple times. that's where we are today. ultimately you have, we'll try to get this back. okay. the bottom line is here, we've got a vix which to me is leading the s&p. every time we go to 13, s&p pulls back. in september, that was a small pullback, in october, that was a 7% pullback, in december, that was a 6% pullback. again, you've got to place where i think the vix is leading the market, that is something to watch out for right now because the backdrop rft fed is something that is very concerning. >> you watch the vix. >> i do, but i think the market, everyone on this desk probably thinks the mark is due for a correction across the desk, or some sort of a correction. look at levels, 2393, that's where it was to hold. i think we're probably going to move lower from there. i've been way early on the sell-off call, i think the

market's going to test today, the recent lows. >> one of the things pete says, i'm not speaking for him, but as it moves to these levels, it gives you an opportunity to protect your long predictions. as timmy just pointed out. the lower end would seem for quite some time. it may be a harbinger of lower markets, but you could use it to your advantage as well if you buy protections. >> just yesterday the dow hit a new record, how are you feeling today? >> about the same as yesterday. i'll tell you the one thing that got me today was the bond market. i thought the bonds yields were going to be going much lower. on a sell-off like today, tlt or 30 year to actually go a lot higher. the tlt going higher, yields going lower. this has me concerned. what's happening, what could be happening is the reverse trade of what's been happening over the last six months. money has been flowing into the u.s., this could be a signal, very early signal of money

flowing out and we'll see what happens on friday. that could be a little bit of fed fear coming into the place. >> all right. after the break, nasdaq crossed a 5,000 mark, we are sitting down with bob greifeld. we'll get his take on where we go from here. alibaba shares falling, and made a big move on yahoo today. we have the details behind that trade later on in the show. stay tuned. about retirement. a 401(k) is the most sound way to go. let's talk asset allocation. sure. you seem knowledgeable, professional. would you trust me as your financial advisor? i would. i would indeed. well, let's be clear here. i'm actually a dj. [ dance music plays ] [laughs] no way! i have no financial experience at all. that really is you? if they're not a cfp pro, you just don't know. find a certified financial planner professional who's thoroughly vetted at letsmakeaplan.org. cfp -- work with the highest standard.

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through 5,000 for the first time in 15 years. milestone day for the index. joining us, bob greifeld, good to see you. >> it means something to people. it means really that you see, in my mind, the new economy. which we talked about 15 years ago has really become the economy. when you look at the nasdaq deposit, these are the companies that have driven our economic growth and our best position to drive the economy going forward. so it's an important barometer to how the overall economy is doing. >> on a day like nasdaq 5,000, everybody wants to know whether or not we're in a bubble. i'm guessing you're going to say

no, most don't think we're in a bubble. from your perspective, what is the number one reason why we are not. >> you have to look at the earnings multiple first and fore most. back in 2000, it was 180. that was for companies making money. today, it's in the mid-20s. all right. so dramatic difference. if we had the same multiple, we'd be at nasdaq 30,000 today, nasdaq 5,000. it's a different set of circumstances. >> the components of the deposit have also changed. >> right. >> they're 2500 or so components, a little bit more than that compared to 15 years ago when it was 4500 or something like that. also the percentage of technology companies on the deposit lower. it's 43%. when you talk about the nasdaq deposit being the economy, it's not as techie as before. >> right. >> is that the way you view it? >> well when you look at it, it's less techie and mirrors a lot of ways the s&p 500. our technology companies

represent 20% of the s&p 500 and about 20% of the earnings of the s&p 500. so you see old economy, new economy, melted together, they look alike. i would highlight biotech. what's interesting to me is we mapped the genome about 15 years ago. so the scientists have now 15 years to work with that new technology and you're seeing a lot of companies come out with gene therapy, immunoi remember that. >> is that where you see the deposit tilting towards the future? 15 years ago you may not have said that less than half the deposit today would be technology. where is that growth going to be? >> there's about 10,000 diseases that have to be solved. there's obviously room for growth there. but i think, you know, technology is still the dominant theme because even those companies are not identified as technology companies have technology as a core part of

their operations and a core part of the differentiation going forward. so technology really is the underpinning of it. even though the number of pure technology companies is declined as a percent. >> let's talk about the battle for ipo's. obviously that's an important part of your business. we just got news this afternoon that the head of listings at the nyse, scott cutler is leaving the exchange. does that change your landscape? does that open up sort of a competitive advantage for you at all? >> well, first i think scott was a very tough and formidable competitor and we wish him great luck in his new endeavor, but the fact is, it's going to be a heated competitive battle no matter who the players are. we have an constitutional battle that happens here. and you know, it's fun, fun, healthy competition. >> right. when we talk about bubbles, people are saying that now it takes much longer for companies to actually get to the ipo state. and that the bubble's actually forming in the private market when companies like uber get a $41 billion evaluation.

from your standpoint, would you agree, i'm curious as to whether you're already talking to companies. if the battle for the ipo is that fierce that you're already out there hitting the pavement in silicon valley talking about the uber's of the world. >> that's certainly our job. let me start by saying that we believe companies wait longer to go public is not necessarily a bad thing. and when you see that we have a record backlog of ipo's for companies that are more mature. i think that's a very good thing for the public market. when you go public, you're facing an endless series of quarters to have your business models fully baked and knowing what your plans are are important. so that being said, we have to then address the private market and the needs of these private market companies to stay in the space longer. that's why we launched last year private market, we have over 60 companies involved with it today. some of the leading names in the valley. pdingre excited about provididg that level of service and support for those companies so we can nurture them along, you know, of a path to go public.

not all companies need to go public. if we want to have the ability to support a permanent, private environment. and that's, you know, i think a good outcaulome. >> are you talking to air b and b, uber, that are garnering what seems to be eye-popping evaluations. >> i would say this, if we're not, we're not doing our job. certainly it's our job to communicate the nasdaq value proposition, the sooner we can do that in the evolution of a company's lifestyle, i think the better. so i'm not going to respond to any individual names, but we certainly recognize it as part of our job, our mission to make sure we communicate to companies, you know, soon after they reach some level of success. >> bob, great to speak to you. also the fast money landlord. guy, what's your trade here? growth and biotech. >> and we talked about that last night. 100% right. biotech 15 years ago were pittance of the nasdaq. now it's almost 16, 17%.

i still think that bioteches make a lot of sense. the nasdaq's stop, look at the run they've had over the last couple of years. pushed against levels we last saw in 2008. not a big evaluation, always sort of out there, the chance for nasdaq and the store along the stock exchange. pairs up. i still think nasdaq, the stock works. >> to me, it's republican interesting to look at the nasdaq then and now. one of the things bob was getting to is the fact that it's not about technology per se. let's talk about facebook. because to me, facebook to me is really on some level, you know, bricks and mortar commerce if they're going what they're doing which is monotizing 1.4 billion users. the evolution of the internet, social media, no one contemplated this back at nasdaq 5,000. facebook is a company for probably the next five to ten years where we don't know what they can do, but we know they have the largest scale. evaluation is interesting, monotizing and they are today's

company of yesterday. >> guy hit on it. it's really been since december that you've seen this big outperformance compared to the nasdaq deposit. and i think a lot of that has to do with the market anticipating the private market that bob talked about. that is a big area that people have gotten into it. second market was into it, you have nasdaq in that area, that could be a big growth driver, no matter what happens with the rest of the stock market. still ahead, the big institutions made some serious changes to their holdings in q4. heavily bought and sold stocks last quarter and whether you should follow suit. plus a deeper dive into the disappointing february auto sales and why toyota beat out ford. more "fast money" straight ahead. [ male announcer ] at northrop grumman,

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♪ wedding song. >> let's talk trading and the aver hours session on earnings and trinet tanking in the affairs, kate rogers with the details on both stories, kate. >> hey, that's right, shares of tivo up more than 6 incompetent after hours trading after a better than expected earnings report. earnings per share came in at seven cents versus estimates of 4%. people seeing 1.3 million subscription additions last year. keeping an eye right now. shares nearly down around 16% in after hours trading. earnings per share came in at 26 cents versus 36 cents as estimated. revenues $37.7 million. back over to you. >> kate rogers, thank you for that. guy, to you, you are the only one on the desk who uses a tivo.

>> track player too. >> trinet is a big miss. huge run. it made an all-time high today. now it's obviously down big, but, you wonder, does that mean anything for the jobs number this week? does the big miss there, can you connect the dots and say, maybe the job's number this week isn't going to be as strong as everybody thinks. if that happens, maybe the bond market is bottoming out. maybe rates do head back lower. that's it. i could be 100% wrong, i'm certain i am. we're throwing it back there. >> best buy beating earnings estimates, kicking off the top trade tonight. getting a boost today as it announced a dividend in the first share buyback since 2012. >> it boosted it's quarterly by 21%. has that special dividend as you mentioned on the intro. it's running into resistance here at $40. they're on the second phase of cost cutting, did so much. sales are declining, if you're in the name, take some profits

here, you'd rather buy it back above $40 momentum than buy it here. >> cash generation has been staggering. more than $2 billion in cash. a billion more that were the previous year. >> and i think therefore, stock buybacks are going to continue to support the stock. this is a stock that's giving you three major opportunities in the last 12 months to buy stock that was blown out by a bad number or misdirected analyst. i think you stay with this one. >> believe it or not, i believe you do stay with best buy because of the buyback. i have not liked this stock. do you buy it tomorrow? probably not. i would agree that you need the momentum to get through 40, but once it gets through 40. i think off winner. next up, young brands falling slightly after an analyst downgraded the stock to a neutral on valuation concerns. shares of young brands up 12% this year, tim. >> so young brands has had a great move from earnings. part of this is at least a better than expected china recovery. this is what we called, this

stock around 80, $81. there are a lot of people the last few days have said in the options market has echoed this. people think that activism in the stock will be a driver to fresh levels to trump them. valuation, i think the stock is fairly priced. could take it higher. >> they've got to do something. right. we're at a point where they have to do something. >> absolutely. i think they turned around what they can turn around internally here when you look at how the stock's traded, traded up from 70, about a month or so ago. it's had quite a run here. it is going to take some kind of catalyst like an activist or maybe more of a buyback, something like that. >> spinning out the china business is what people to want see. >> talked about it last night quickly, the move in july, it was a huge move to the downside, in a month that stock cut about $10 off. this is the same movement over the last month and a half, so here at 81 bucks. they're in the prove me camp, i think it fell back to the high

70s. >> dpz again? >> no. i was. >> you know, if you look at yum, it's up. mcdonald's probably 6%. somewhere around there, but i'd rather buy, even though they're both running to resistance. mcdonald's looks more constructive. wait a couple days. >> you like the turn around story better than the yum. >> i do. i think there's a lot more, they have to switch, yeah, they have to switch around that whole menu. i believe there's a lot more upside. next up, auto sales, general motors and auto sales. severely missing estimates. plus auto zone beating estimating, up 3.6% compared to a year ago. >> you wonder if you have decoupling between ford and gm. now 2.5%. gm was up half a percent. i'm not a great tape. pete talked about it last night, apparently some usual options activity in gm. a lot of people betting that this stock makes a push towards

$50. excuse me, 40 bucks. feels like that may happen. ford gets interesting, to me, 16.5, 17, resistance. i think it trades back down. i think you buy gm overall. if you had to two, buy gm, sell ford. >> a lot of what drove ford was the alum numb pickup truck. let's look at aa, i think that looks vul noeshl me here. it's been trading sideways for a while. if ford sales are down, i don't know. i would get out of that. >> third derivative. >> do it, come on. >> domino's pizza. >> one of the arguments is that the car market has been driven very much and the truck market db. >> i like that. >> yes, and there was a pun intended by lower gas prices. look at the numbers out of january, it was all about truck steams which are the most profitable. i'll go back to the companies, i like gm a lot, but the head winds on margins could be bigger. this is a stock on relative value underperformed by 24% in

the last year. so you stay with that over four foot, again, be careful, i think some of the great numbers are driven by lower gas prices. coming up next on fast, should you follow the big money? top names that institutional investors are buying and selling. china's new regulations could spell trouble for tech companies. we're talking with an analyst whose names like apple, ipm, and cisco could stand to lose billions, stay tuned. attention investors! vectorvest mobile is here and it's free! make faster, smarter, better trading decisions with vectorvest mobile. the most powerful app or managing your portfolio from the palm of your hand. only vectorvest mobile analyzes, ranks and graphs... ...over 16,000 stocks worldwide, everyday,... ...and gives you clear buy, sell, hold recommendations... ...on every stock; anytime, anywhere.

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still ahead on "fast money," buzz kill, hitting an all-time low since going public today. hit the low today since going public. we'll hear from an analyst on what's behind the slide. following the big money means look at the heavily bought and sold stocks last quarter. and later, the chinese government banning any purchases of u.s. tech from apple, ibm, microsoft and cisco. a deeper dive ahead. shares of alibaba hitting the lowest since september. sinking more than 30%. bad news piling on the stock. jd.com heating up competition. taiwan asked alibaba to leave the country in six months. so how much more bad news can baba take?

let's bring in research analyst gill loria. >> thanks for having me. >> down about 22%. is this mostly at this point, i mean there are all these fundamentals, but the lock up expiration, one is 318, $429 million shares, how much do you think of the decline is that? >> i think it's contributing. a lot of these factors that you mentioned, i've been known since before the ipo, the sentiment was just so positive through the ipo and through singles day. the pendulum swung to a complete positive side. since then, people have had a chance to critique some of these aspects, the authenticity of merchandise and volume reporting, the dealing, the political dealings within china and now within taiwan. as people have had a chance to contemplate that. swung all the way to the other side. lock up expirations probably contributing as well. >> i mean these things were out there, but arguably, gill, they have actually gotten worse and

they have crystallized since the time the company went public of september 19th. we were talking about counterfeit goods, since then, we know now that the chinese government is investigating this. taiwan, now they are being asked to leave the country in six months. the fake orders, now there's a wall street journal article putting it in the face of every single investor. are you anymore concerned even incrementally about these things? even though we knew they were out there, more tangible now, aren't they? >> well, for the investors that did the work last year, i think they were well aware of these issues. and i think you even covered them, a lot of other media outlets covered them. it's just a matter of the fact, the sentiment was so overwhelming, positive people ignored them. the fake merchandise, that's well known. alibaba is combatting that, it's a long journey. been to amazon many years before they got all the merchandise up. and then in terms of the fake volumes, those don't really impact the economics. they don't generate any revenue on those. so it doesn't impact the economics. economics are driven by chinese

consumers wanting to buy more. >> uh-huh. >> and they're trying to combat that, just like google tries to sco and trying to game search. alibaba's in the same boat. they have to constantly chase down these retailers that they are trying to game their system to get their results up on there. it's going to be ongoing. i don't think it's gotten worse. the new things in terms of the political situation, i think that possibly politicians in china and taiwan are trying to flex their muscles. alibaba's gotten so big. so prominent that i think there's a sense that maybe they need to get put in their place. i think that's all it is. alibaba and jack, maneuvered political waters very well over the last 15 years. and i think they'll maneuver through these issues as well. >> okay. so it sounds like you think it's mostly sentiment at this point. what is going to be the fundamental catalyst that you can, you know, cite as a reason

why the stock could actually recover it's losses that it's seen since it's high which was two days after singles day? at this point, it's basing these sort of issues, which you say we'll know, fine, then it has lock up expiration on the 18th of month. then it also has a bigger lock up expiration come this september with 16 billion shares could come to market. >> well, the lock up expiration, it's so liquid it can absorb supply. the drivers is simply going to be the fact that it's growing 30, 40%. it has 50% plus ian down margins. if it doubles it's earnings in the next two or three years, it appears to be on the track to doing in the multiple doesn't contract. those will be the types of returns that it gets. and for the stock not to go up, it's going to have to be low double digits in two or three years, i don't think anybody thinks that's going to happen. it's just going the very, very rapid growth that they've been enjoying and continue to enjoy that draws the stock.

we'll get back on that. probably as soon as they report the next quarter. >> all right gail, thank you. >> thank you. >> gill loria, buy rating on the stock. >> look, i agree with gill on a lot of his points, although i did sell some today. after the stock tanked on earnings, i bought some, but stopping myself on that at 84, it's a key level. what's going on. the fundamental is this is what's dogging the company as well. this is something they're fixed investment process continues, you know, in mass. and this is a problem when seasonally you have lower numbers. people are seeing both sides of this. the noise, taiwan kicking alibaba out of their country, that's a joke. taiwan's not doing anything to china. if you think about emerging markets, you bet with the state, alibaba is the state until proven otherwise. for people think they're being attacked by the state. some of the stuff is good for e commerce in china. >> yahoo. >> i've been 80% out of the yahoo. 20% tail just in case you get

that alibaba pop going into the end of the year. and if you look at it the, yahoo's down 15% year to date. alibaba down 20% year to date. i got out of the name because i still think alibaba goes much lower, or lower, and it's going to take yahoo with it. >> when the pendulum swings to the opposite side, it is a very difficult thing for that pendulum to swing back. >> extraordinarily. >> look at apple. >> yeah. >> suddenly it was -- >> number of stocks. tesla, any number of stocks. and right now unfortunately, alibaba's in the cross hairs. i think yahoo was cheap 46, 45, 44 hasn't played out. now you have to let it play out. >> big movers of the day, a drop for u.s. steal down 5%. >> took their price direction in the other direction. 37-21. still prices continue to be under pressure. specifically the steel levered to. january 28th, felt like that rate, 20 once again.

>> lumber liquidators. >> 5% doesn't feel that great when you've been in the stock for it being down as much as it did after the 60 minutes report. the story isn't over here, i think there's a lot more to go. i would, let's swipe on this one. >> drop for cesar's down 4%. >> this is a company that's trying to restructure debt. if you're going to play the casino space. play with a winner here. play with mgm. >> hilton up 1%. >> stock that's also been kind of on the move. the global stock and the play and the luxury hotel play is probably starwood. i like hilton here. valuation concerns me. >> should you be following the big money? investors get in and out of stocks one to two years ahead of retail investors. according to data from e vestment, there were big moves. with more details on this, cnbc.com's editor at large, aka,

ice. oh, that was short. that was a truncated. >> what did you find? >> that's the key thing you said. 12 to 24 advance. institutional investors tend to predict what retail is going to do. we looked at the top 20 most widely held stocks, end of q4. five that got the biggest pick up in the rankings are exxonmobile, comcast, gileas, cisco, and merck. and what's interesting here is that you don't really see a big sector rotation as much. people are getting out of energy. going more to consumer. look at the names. people are getting out of chevron, going into exxon. they're going to gilead and merck. getting out of qualcomm. there are opportunities in terms of the same names within

sectors. >> so how do we use this data? if we're seeing that institutions are making the moves 12 to 24 months ahead. does that mean that the trade is on for the next 12 to 24 months potentially? or that the trade's over? >> no, that means the trade is still to come if you're a retailer. all right. the institutional community, they're a couple steps ahead. these are the names that retail sechblgly going to catch up to. people watch shows like this and eventually catch up to guys like you are doing. eventually they get in the stocks, at this point, it's a step ahead. these are the names to watch out for going forward because you don't to want get on the wrong side of that type of a trade when people have moved their money up. >> going to leave it there, thank you. aka, ice. >> why -- >> very short. >> i guess because it could go on forward. >> people don't get tired of eric. more of eric, maybe less of vanilla ice. >> turn the channel when they hear it. anyway, in terms of the stocks that institutions are buying or selling, disagree,

like, or what -- where do you stand? >> let's talk about kpexxon. there's decent support around 87. for me, that's the one i would start to look to nibble at if i was given the choice of these names. >> gilead, people have traded down to 80. bounced, nice bounce, sold off again on bad news, and subsequently bounced. not an expensive stock. great balance sheet. i think the sell off has been overdone. make a pick out of the five -- >> do it. >> notice i don't play would you rather because you only did the two. >> you can't rather out of five. >> gilead. >> net neutrality, the recent ruling will hurt verizon, exxon mobil. probably hurt further. that will be the inverse relationship. but i would say you should bid a seller of verizon. >> one thing about the institution fwbs they're dumping qualcomm, they're dumping at the bottom. i think this is a great time to

pick up qualcomm. we've learned more about their china issues once again. china sbesht, big brother. a lot of this priced in, royalties and valuations are matching up. >> speaking of china, still ahead. the chinese government banning purchase of technology from apple, ibm, microsoft and cisco, how much could it cost companies? the shocking numbers right after this break.

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money," i'm kate rogers. earnings after the bell, moving higher by nearly 6% is earnings and revenue came in higher than estimates. earnings per share came in at 68 cents per share versus the 49 cents while revenues came in at 65 million compared to 59 million. the company creates chips for an array of cameras. the most notable is go pro. back to you. >> thank you very much, kate rogers. gopro moving higher. this is a monster move yesterday, it was also the fact that it's in the camera, that's -- >> easy there. >> today it was up two and a quarter. after hour session up 5.5%. what's your take? >> when you have a 38% shortage. it doesn't trade at a ridiculous

valuation. i know that sounds crazy, but when they have a shortened interest, people will get squeezed. big day today, another big one tomorrow. anything north of 10 million shares on trading volume tomorrow. short term top stock. >> you want the same space, lets go semis conductor space. off conference, micron is presenting tomorrow. it was downgraded today. there's a chance to buy the stock at these levels is a home run. granted it's relying on them more so on dram. i think you could have some serious upside here. >> gopro has been having problems in terms of trading. and you've been a fan of gopro. >> i have been. >> do you stick with it? >> going in the drawer? top drawer? >> it's not a drawer trade. here's the deal, for me, for gopro, you have to one, believe that they are going to be able to turn it into an entertainment-like company and they're making moves like that. the nhl move is proof for me on

that. with the news, at the very least have to nibble at gopro. $64 camera does not bother you? they have a cheaper camera is not the point. it works if they dreet that brand. if they create a brand like underarmor, even though it's just like you or vice versa. that's the only reason why this works. i think nick woodman is the guy. tech remain ascii focus in the -- tech remains a key focus in the u.s. china was shrinking the list approved for state purchases. leaving off key names like apple and cisco. and this week in a reuters interview, president obama criticized new laws which would force tech companies to give the chinese government surveillance access. which companies could be hit the hardest? let's bring in managing director dan. always good to see you. >> great to be here. >> we known this has been going on, it seems like it's ramping up now. in terms of how you see the

impact, what is the number? is there a dollar figure? >> yeah, i mean this is $140 billion market for tech purchases. this terms much lost revenue, especially when you're looking at apple, cisco, ibm, microsoft, we're looking at three to five billion over the next few years. i think that could be conservative. this is republican a game of high stakes poker, and you know, obama really called the bluff last night in terms of what china's going to do. now we have to see what their cards are. and this is really tech executives are really focussed on. this is a big growth area, especially over the next coming years for enterprise. >> it sounds like a big number, three to five billion dollar loss. it's across three big companies with big revenue streams. is this enough for you to actually change your models in terms of what you expect these companies to earn? >> yeah, i think that's really on almost the based or conservative case. this could really be ultimately two, three x that. and i think china could potentially be in head wind as we go forward.

of a lot of eggs in the basket in terms of enterprise, tech, and you get the cyber security. you look at the data center. this is really a big growth area that i think investors should really be focussed on for these names. i think microsoft, cisco, ibm are really the ones more front and center. apple is a bit of a wild card. doesn't affect the consumer run the enterprise. >>. >> roughly 23% from here. >> for microsoft it's all about an acceleration off windows 10 as well as on the 65 side. i ultimately think we look out, we get through this rough patch in the windows 10 cycle. i think we're starting to get past there, especially with that windows 10 product psych that

many investors are focussed on. >> dan, great to speak with you, thank you. dan ives. five handle, microsoft, you agree? >> i don't, but i do think there's an opportunity for these guys to show that the streams in windows and refresh is not as bad as people think. i want to go back to let's talk about cisco. i think if we think about this china, you know, backdrop and how this could be a big impact for the tech companies, it's not going to be on the consumer side. it's going to be on infrastructure, sbrer prizes dan said, the thing, it's not going to happen in the next, in the next three weeks. you are not trading cisco on the news. you're trade agent 30 bucks, tough time getting through the numbers. i think cisco pulls back because the valuations caught off and people running there. i sell not because of china, but because you got the key levels. >> i get that in terms of not trading right now on china. you didn't trade qualcomm immediately on china, and yet china became the big looming issue that overhung for a year. >> totally fair, but again, are

we talking about this is a story that's come out and obama had stuff, it's gotten a lot of profile. does not hit cisco tomorrow. >> chambers last earnings report was as positive as you've ever heard him and as positive you heard ever a ceo. stock traded up 7% on earnings. china is something he was fully aware of. i have to think he's okay and capable of handling this. i think cisco is still a buy. coming up, bullish traders are betting one stock is about to take off. what it is and how much upside they see coming, that's next. in our house, we do just about everything online.

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welcome back to "fast money." shares of smith and wesson trading in after hours. they beat the third quarter, up by around 14%. came in at 20 krens versus the estimate of 11 cents while revenues came in at $131 million versus the expected 123 million. smith and wesson getting strong guidance for the fourth quarter, melissa, back to you. >> kate rogers, thanks. 9% pop on this gun-maker. >> down 4% during date.

they whacked it ahead of this. beat guidance. that's about a 25% shortage. and it's not a big valuation. i think the stock is north of 15 bucks. well money in the option's market. predicting a run on a bank. running to the upside, down day for the market, betting huge on a big bank, mike with the action. >> hi, we saw two times the arch daily volume in city bank today. that's interesting because city trades a lot of options under normal circumstances. so it takes a lot for it to bump it up. trade it over 132,000 calls and a lot of the activity was institutional call buying one of the trades that certainly stuck out to me was a call spread. that sounds like a mouthful, basically this is what they did my. stole it and used the proceeds to buy the 55 and a half call spread. the nice thing about that trade is that we can see specifically where they think the stock might go and when it's going to get there.

6% move by march expiration which is two weeks from this coming friday. >> all right. so in terms of banks. we have ccar coming up, the stress test. >> that'll certainly be, if they fail, i guess you get more money. my bigger concern on the banks is whether or not we'll see a flatter yield. i'm betting on that which is not great for the banks. for me, i stay away. >> i tell you what -- >> your phone is ringing. turn it off. >> i should know to put it on silent. >> we're only on the air from 5ing to 6:00. >> that's an opportunity to buy the stock. this is a stock that's cheapest of all the money banks. it's got a global growth. operation is far and away. people love to talk about the problems that this bank has. if you look at what's going on in the core businesses, they're growing their profitability. >> wells fargo has the most consistent chart. if you look at the space. i would probably be a buyer here. other than that goldman sachs. i would love to know who's calling him. >> we're on tv now.

whoever's calling tim. >> someone that knows better. >> my bad. >> risk reversal. >> thanks to you. for more action, check out the live show 5:30 eastern show on friday. "mad money" tonight, national pancake day. don't miss the exclusive with the ceo of ihop, plus jim will talk auto sales with the top brass. that and much more ahead on "mad money." we'll be right back, stay tuned. at ally bank no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like mute buttons equal danger. ...that sound good? not being on this phone call sounds good. it's not muted. was that you jason? it was geoffrey! it was jason. it could've been brenda.

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time for the final trade, let's go around the horn. tim. >> i like gm, but i would be selling toyota here after a 40% move in the stock. >> they have been depending on sale formation. that just did that in december. spiked higher. kb homes. >> get junk out the trunk -- >> what? >> keep that to yourself. >> where does that come from? it's a song. line from a song. >> who sang that song? >> i don't know how it goes. do you want to sing it? >> used to be call -- >> would you know if he told you?

>> no. >> there you go. >> at the top of the show, exchange. now it's cme. if the bond markets are going nuts here. they win. stocks put on fire. >> i'm melissa lee, thanks for watching, my mission is simple to take you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> hey, i'm cramer. i'm jim cramer. i'm just trying to save you a little money. my job is not to teach, but to coach and entertain you so call me. tweet me at jim cramer. did everyone wake up this morning and say enough with the positives? now let's scrutinize the negatives with a magnifying glass? did you hear the