>> it could also be. i thought it was fox as a result of that. or maybe monster. thanks for watching "power lunch" today and all week. for more check out powerlunch@cnbc.com. "the closing bell" starts in three, two, one, now. yes, welcome to "the closing bell," i'm kelly evans. what a week we've had. >> crazy. i'm bill griffeth. where do we begin to tell about today's market story. >> right, which fits into the whole week. we've had nasdaq 5,000 today, big moves to the dow today. >> changes you probably have heard about. we'll talk about that coming up. this strong jobs report set the tone first thing this morning. the feeling, i guess, is that the fed is more likely to raise rates sooner rather than later. so stocks are sharply lower at this hour. the dow especially down 1.5% at this time. bond yields have gone up today.

the dollar is stronger. gold is down sharply. all the markets telling the same story. >> and there are plenty of investors talking, joking perhaps about the property that they are looking at in greece in italy, across europe because if you want to -- there's the euro/dollar today up another 1.5%. the low $10.09.109 $1.09. extraordinary to remember a couple years ago when it was at $1.40. that will have a huge impact on their economy and on ours as well. >> book your vacations to europe. europe is on sale this summer. >> with just an hour to go before the close, a steep sell-off. the dow is off almost 300 points. off 277 this hour. it brings it to 17,861. the nasdaq is off 56. 4,926 for that index today. >> here we go. time for our "closing bell" exchange.

dorothy weaver of collins capital is with us today. formerly of the board of the federal reserve bank of atlanta's miami branch. jeffrey cleveland from payton and regal. our even steve liesman and rick santelli santelli. steve, pay attention here. are you with us? he's not. jeffrey cleveland, you're the other economist -- >> i'm here bill. >> anies a teric or icic icic icic -- any asterisk asterisk? >> we think this is a terrific report. when i talk to clients and investors, they don't seem to want to believe that the u.s. labor market is strong and i think after 12 jobs reports above 200,000 jobs per month with the six month average just shy of 300,000 jobs per month, the unemployment rate at 5.5% what's not to like? if you pointed to one thing, it might be wage growth but wage growth, we think that will come. we think with better momentum in

nonfarm payrolls lower unemployment rate, it's just a matter of time. i think sometime later this year wage growth will pick up bill so that will give the fed an opportunity to hike short-term interest rates. >> is the fed suddenly behind the curve, tom porcelli. >> sorry about that. do we think the fed is behind the curve? i think we can make an argument based on fundamental grounds the fed should be raising rates. now, that is never going to -- we continue to say june. the one thing i want to make a point on is this whole idea of wages. i've heard this releaptless over the course of the day. it's one of the reasons my voice is sort of sore right now because we've been talking about it and maybe i have been yelling about it is this idea. wages lag the cycle. janet yellen made this point abundantly clear last week during humphrey hawkins. there's a reason why wage pressures lag the cycle.

you have to wait for labor markets to become tighter and as a result the one thing you do first is raise hours which we've seen over the course of the last several months and then you raise pay. so that is a conversation for another day. do not lament the fact that wages are not running at a robust pace. they shouldn't be at this point in the cycle. >> steve can you hear us now? >> sorry about that. i was listening to the earlier show. >> i was hearing something weird myself but i digress. what did you make of this report? >> i did like this report a lot. 295,000. i like a couple little factoids. i like the idea that 66,000 people found jobs in leisure and hospitality hospitality. it tells me americans are spending on leisure and hospitality. and the fact that those working part-time for economic reasons went down for the eighth month in a row. tom, where are we in the cycle? we're 68 months into the expansion, quote, unquote, and

the story is that we have job growth is actually accelerating. at this time in the prior expansion, job growth was decelerating as you can see in that chart right there. the orange line is us now, over 0.2%. and the blue line is the prior expansion. so i don't know where we're supposed to be in the cycle. what i do know is that wages are a long way from prompting or causing inflation in this economy. >> i couldn't agree more with that. there are a couple ways of thinking about this. we've been write being this quite a bit in some of our notes. we think it's fair to say there's some wage pressure in the pipeline. if you look at the small business survey what small business owners are saying is they plan on raising worker pay. you don't do that when there's slack in the labor backdrop. if you think about sort of job openings right now, we constructed a time yazidi of this -- series of this.

weighted average weighted openings for job openings are running at a faster pace than total aggregate wages. there's sure signs we are moving into a backdrop where wage -- >> god forbid americans should get wage increases, and everybody freaks out. i'm going to offer the following investment thesis. i'm going to bet more in the stock market when wages go up rather than less. that it's a good thing for the economy that you get wages. plus, wage pressure and wage increases are not wage inflation. wage inflation to my mind is when it's running above productivity and above the inflation rate. again, long way to go. >> let's ask dorothy weaver. what do you think is about to happen with wages and whether that would make you less bullish on the u.s. stock market if they start to pick up? >> no because it would reflect that we truly are in a real growth spurt and we're continuing. we still have a lot of room in terms of the participation rate. there are lots of people who can come back into the workforce,

there are part-time people who can come into the workforce and there are people who can move up out of lower paying jobs into more meaningful wage jobs. so wages can reflect a variety of things that don't necessarily mean anything bad for the stock market and mean a lot that's good for the economy. >> dorothy, the stock market -- as i mentioned before a lot of these markets seem to be suggesting, they're anticipating a fed rate increase sooner rather than later based on the jobs number. taking into account within the last 12 months we've had good job growth here. do you agree with that? do you think we're likely to see a rate increase maybe as early as june? >> i think it now brings that back into the realm of the possible because of the fact that job growth has been so good, but i think the discussion in the march meeting is going to focus on this wage growth, on the participation rate and that weighs on them too. we look at it as just one leg of the stool, but there are three they are going to be focused on.

depending how the other two play out it could push a little later in the year but i think we will see it in 2015. >> rick santelli we have started to see grat roots sign if you will of wage inflation, just some signs. tom has gone hoarse talking to his clients today about how they don't need to wait to see it because it's bog to become part of the cycle. does the fed need to wait to see it? is there something different this time or should they trust it's going to happen and move now? >> well, there was a lot of jambalaya in that question. here is what i see. i see it takes an awful lot of addictive liquidity to get a certain amount of growth and every else is superfluous to the discussion because the reality is that we have 11 basis points up on 10s on the day, a quarter point up on the week and the stock market is down 250 pounds. i'm in the guy adami camp or he's in my camp because in the end we've all heard it dozens of

times. rates going up is bullish. i would like to think so but i think that the stock market is going to have to recalibrate to a new world if the fed normalizes rates. the problem is that the fed is now a coho salmon. they missed opportunities to normalize rates, now they're going to do it and they need to do it but they're doing it at exactly the wrong time. they're going against all the other central banks, against all the growth trends in china. so this is going to be a tough one, and i think the normalization process is going to be hugely bumpy in stocks but when we're done we'll be able to look into the camera and say that the data is good because the stock market is up and interest rates are up. i don't think we're near that intersection yet. >> rick correct me if i'm wrong, but we've talked in the past about -- you especially -- the distortions in the market caused by quantitative easing and the markets don't act the way they normally would responding to certain economic data, but today don't you think that all the markets are saying the same thing, the way they're

reacting, that maybe we are going to see higher rates sooner rather than later? >> well i think that's a good argument. remember, the old days the curve flattened when you thought the fed was going to be tightening now the curves are steepening. 10s minus 2s. maybe the long end is starting to believe it but i'm not sure. i can't look at any part of the yield curve and think i get it when the european curve, over half of it is in negative territory and getting more negative by the minute. >> let's put it in context. we're talking about 2.24% for 10-year paper which is the average of the single day interest rate for the fed over the ten-year period. the fed funds rate for december 2015 is 57, count them basis points for the end of 2015. so whatever we're talking about, we're not talking about a whole lot of expectation for fed --

>> then why haven't they done anything? you can't have it both ways? if it's so easy and so meaningless, why haven't we done it? people like the economy but they don't want the fed to be too quick. those are mutually exclusive -- >> it's because of you, rick. it's because of you and your kind out there in chicago -- >> thank you, mr. liesman. you're so kind. >> that are so quick -- let me explain, rick. >> hang on. >> let me explain. >> finish the thought, steve. >> they're so quick on the button to pull forward the trajectory of rates and rate increases. it's one of the main reasons the fed is holding back -- >> but that's not the case is it, steve? >> you saw what happened in the taper tantrum when bernanke even mentioned the idea of hiking rates, what the market did. that's why -- >> but this morning they said goldman's expectations for where rates were going, up to the 3.5%, 4% territory in a few years is way above to where the market is.

they haven't reacted nearly enough. >> i think that may be true. >> i like to do my own thinking. i'm not going to speak on behalf of somebody else's thoughts. >> dorothy -- >> can i associate myself with dorothy who is the smartest person on the panel. just look at her backdrop compared to the rest of us. >> i saw the boats going by and those are not ice cutters. dorothy, you're the former fed official. how much do the fed officials pay attention to the markets? we sort of got a hint of that in the last minutes of the previous meeting where they were wondering what the markets would do when they do finally get around to liftoff, but how much pressure is put on fed officials when the markets are acting the way they do here? if at all? >> no definitely. it's a reality. you live in the real world, and the marksets have always looked at the fed. now the fed is also looking at the markets and that is new from what we were used to several years ago. have to be cognizant of it, and yet they've got to do their

mandate, and the markets then will respond, and when we're really going to new yorkalormalize is when markets start to respond to what individual companies are doing and getting back to fundamentals opposed to moving everybody in one direction up or down. >> where do you see the 10-year ending this year? >> we're expecting to end at 3%. that's the official house call and so that's what i'm going to talk about to you. i can easily make an argument for 10-year yields to finish much lower than that. i think going through a conundrum part two which is as hopefully your viewers is aware was in '04 where the fed embarked on a tightening cycle and 10-year yields went nowhere. i can easily make that argument particularly now that the ecb has picked up the easing baton. i think that's a reasonable outcome. >> jeff, you sort of got shortchanged but you've got to jump in buddy, once in a while. you really love this jobs report so where do you see 10-year

yields by the end of the year? >> i think what's going on here is investors are not aware or don't want to believe that the economy is as strong as it is. i want to echo steve's comments that we shouldn't fear wage growth. we should very much welcome it. we think we'll get it later in the year and that should push interest rates up a bit, and if i can give everyone a reading assignment over the weekend, i think you should look at john williams san francisco fed president, spoke yesterday evening in hawaii where the weather is much nicer, and that speech i think is the best explanation of this current environment and how the fed is thinking about it. and zero fed funds rate is an emergency level and we're not in an emergency situation. interest rates should be a bit higher. >> read that and there may be a pop quiz on monday. >> thanks everybody. >> pop quiz on monday. >> have a good weekend. >> really appreciate it. >> thanks bill. >> markets under pressure here. the dow is off 270 points. we're going to stay on the sell-off with the s&p off 29 and the nasdaq further retreating

from the 5,000 mark. it's now about 4928 today. >> that jobs report it did have some weaknesses but none bigger than the losses in the energy sector due to the plunging oil prices. morgan brennan will be here with a special report on just how ugly it's getting jobswise in the oil patch. speaking of jobs also ahead, are robots the biggest threat to the labor force? a new report estimating an additional 1.2 million robots working at u.s. manufacturing plants over the next decade. are they taking jobs? you won't want to miss this important story when we come back. >> danger, danger. [ male announcer ] your love for trading never stops. so if you get a trade idea about, say organic food stocks schwab can help. with a trading specialist just a tap away. what's on your mind lisa? i'd like to talk about a trade idea. let's hear it. [ male announcer ] see how schwab can help light a way forward. so you can make your move wherever you are. and start working on your next big idea. ♪ ♪

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sell-off this friday yes, very good jobs report but what -- we're back to the point now where good news is bad news in that regard. the good news the jobs growing. bad news that may mean that the fed is going to raise rates sooner rather than later so the dow is down 274 points. s&p down 1.33%. nasdaq down over 1% and there are all ten sectors in the s&p 500 and all are lower today. >> ouch. look at utilities off 3%. for once the focus is off

energy, but that 50% plunge in oil prices over the past year is wiping out some jobs in the energy sector in a big way. >> morgan brennan spent some time in the oil patch this week. she's doing a damage assessment for us right now. >> this is the second straight of energy related job declines. take a look at what the labor department calls the miner super sector. for the month of february we lost 9,300 jobs. most of those directly tied to oil. oil and gas extraction. we saw 1,100 job losses there, and here support activities for mining, which includes services that have been tied to drilling also folks that are contracted for exploration, this group lost 7,400 jobs in the month of february. now, these numbers may still seem kind of small and that's really because we're just getting started. so earlier this week we had another report from challenger gray and christmas that said energy firms announced more than

16,300 job cuts in february largely due to those lower oil prices. that brings the total for the first two months up to 36,500 job cut announcements. to put that in context, that is 150% higher in the first two months of 2015 than all of 2014 combined. as for the companies that are actually cutting back on their labor force, oil field services companies have been the most impacted so far. and that's really as we've seen rigs start to come offline. last month we had weatherford international announcing 7,000 layoffs. also last month, halliburton announced 6,400 layoffs and just earlier this week getting march started we got another announcement from nabors. this is on top of the other announcements we got on top of january from other companies saying throughout the first quarter you would be seeing job cuts. >> thanks very much. we're heading to the close with

40 minutes left. the dow has come off the lows. we were down almost 300 points at one time. now down 266. s&p down 27. falling through a couple of key support levels today and the nasdaq is down 52. up next it's going from a capital i to the lower case one. apple is in and at&t is out. could this be bad news for apple and good news for at&t? you will want to hear what three market watchers have to say on this coming up.

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welcome back. on interestthis friday we have a steep market sell-off. the dow, markets off between 1% and 1.5% with the dow off 266 this hour. this, of course, as the 10-year is moving higher gold is getting crushed, bill. >> let's see what all 30 dow components are doing. they're all red. i would be surcurious to see where tth tth at&t is. smack in the middle. down 1.4% with johnson & johnson down 2.4%. >> even apple under pressure but there will be a new member of this dow 30 in less than two weeks and it is apple set to replace at&t in a move that will take place after the market close on that day. >> so let's talk about it for more on what this means for the tech giant. you know, just the market

overall. we're joined by gene munster, tez ted hazelson and -- the companies have acontent sharing arrangement. gene munster, what did you think when you heard not only that apple is going in. they did that stock split recently. we all knew what that was about. what did you think about at&t going out as well? >> well, i guess just from apple's perspective if i take a two-year look at this i'm not surprised given they have been more advantageous for shareholders, doing the stock split, the growth of the company. when i take a step back even further and think about covering this for a long time and the company being on the brink, it really is a historical event and it's pretty special. >> todd what does it mean for investors though?

is it time to buy at&t and sell aple? i'm not sure about that but i think the importance of american tech and tech globalization moving into china and emerging markets is huge and apple shows that. replacing at&t brings telecom in lice with the s&p 500. i think it makes a lot of sense as we see not just apple but the american tech sector in general move internationally and showing a fair balance of what it's doing in the united states. >> dawn i know this is tim cook's company now but i can't help but thinking back on the days when apple was on its back and steve jobs came back on a white horse and revived it and now look at it today. you know this is the stamp of approval from corporate america to go into the dow, isn't it? >> yeah it's a really interesting moment for apple. remember, back in january when they reported their first quarter earnings they set records. they hit a historic high for

publicly traded companies. they've sold record numbers of iphones. so it appears that apple is on the roll and we have some news coming on monday with the launch of a new device the apple watch. >> just going back to this for a second, the reason why i raise the issue about whether this marks a top or a bottom depending how you look at it is the recent history has shown alcoa leaving the index and outperforming, the same for hp. by the time you add some of the components, their best run is behind them. what do you think? >> i see your concerns but i don't think apple's best run is behind it. i think hp left in 2013. it's about time we have another huge american computermaker, software softwaremaker, phonemaker. apple is in every aspect of the business. it makes a lot of sense for it to be there versus intel, cisco, microsoft. you don't see them so much as hardware makers. >> given what apple has done the last few years if it had been in the dow in that time, we'd be at 20,000 right now.

gene munster, will this change the way tim cook runs the company? will this matter at all to them? they did do this stock split to bring the price down so that it would be more equitable to go into the index but do you think they'll run the company any differently? >> i think this is the result of them running the company different. i think this is the result of a ceo who is more open to working with investors in terms of disclosures and also capital allocation. i think that the change has already happened. i think that change will continue. credit tim cook for what he felt was the right thing to do with the company. >> what does it mean for the dow as an index. apparently even after they make this swap out in order to offset the decline in visa's impact on the market we'll still have tech losing a couple percentage points in terms of market share. is that the right move for the dow right now? >> i think tech should be up slightly to 30.9%. telecom will be down with at&t down and visa's four or one

split. what better company i think to reflect where we are right now, especially in tech, than apple. >> okay. i'm just going back to s&p dj index. it says tech center weighting will actually go down to 17% from 19%. that's because visa stock split will overshadow's apple's inflution in the index. >> right, i was looking at the price weight there. that's how i viewed it but -- >> yeah. just curious. dawn, as well your thoughts. should tech as a sector weighting actually be going up in the dow? >> it certainly reflects what's going on in the broader economy. i think the inclusion on the dow simply reflects what a large part of the economy mobile technology is and apple is certainly at the center of that. >> before we go those of you who can pick stocks do you like apple still at these levels gene? >> i do. i think there's a lot more room to go with the iphone cycle than investors give it credit. small increases in market share

have dramatically positive impacts on the iphone and they have the wild cards coming with the watch. i still believe in the tv the car. there's optimism for short and long term investors. >> i want to see that trve.v. >> i want to see the suede charging box for the apple watch. >> i want to see the price. >> that too. >> 25 grand i hear. thank you all, folks. appreciate it very much. we're sitting near the lows of the session right now. >> look at that. dow is off 288. up next we'll talk about corporate debt now totally a staggering $7 trillion. so for get a rate hike. is this what could do in the bull market? a huge story on cnbc proand we're all over it next. >> first here is sue herera with our news update. >> cia director john brennan has ordered a major overhaul of the spy agency. brennan says the move is designed to make its leaders more accountable, enhance the agency's cyber strengths, and shore up espionage gaps.

and new details are emerging about the apple watch ahead of monday's big company event. one report says the device will have a longer than expected battery life and will feature a heart rate monitor at a glance. the delta plane that skidded on landing at laguardia is now in a hangar where investigators are documenting the damage. meanwhile, the ntsb tells nbc news the black boxes from the delta flight recorder are now in washington being analyzed by investors. and there's a proposal on the table to build the world's largest shopping mall in miami. u.s.-based triple five is reportedly looking for a 200-acre spot to build the shopping mall/theme park. the plans reportedly include an indoor ski slope and a submarine ride. that's the cnbc news update this hour. "closing bell" will be back in a minute. ness owners get started. visit legalzoom today for the legal help you need to start and run your business. legalzoom. legal help is here.

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in a story burning up cnbc pro today, the corporate debt market has balloons. we noticed $7 trillion since 2007. $7 trillion with a "t" and that factor is a big concern. dominic chu has a recap of the story. >> so bill kelly, that corporate debt issue, one of the big warning signs, despite all the talk of a bull market for stocks, the pessimists point to the flood of companies that have rushed to borrow money at ultra low interest rates. with yields on 10-year treasury notes shooting higher today, they are still well below where they were a year ago and certainly where they were pre-financial crisis. that's allowed companies to borrow money at extremely low interest rates and use the proceeds to engage in massive stock buyback programs. larry mcdonald highlights the junk bond markets a showing

signs of weakness that could lead to a bigger pull back in the stock market. look at the down trend we've seen in one etf that tracks the junk bond market. let's focus on the year-to-date. you can seen the right-hand side of the screen, that's just one take on the overall corporate bond market. for more on this story as well as what the bull cases are, go to cnbc.com/pro. the full story up on our website right now, kelly, bill back over to you guys. >> thank you, dom. let's talk more about this now. welcome to you both. and first to you, when did this first cross your radar in terms of factors potentially contributing to and driving the bull market in stocks? >> i think the corporate debt issue is a concern, but the reason -- one of the reasons i'm bullish on the s&p 500 is that it is actually less levered

almost a third as levered as it was in prior peaks. so if you look at net debt it's been taken down by a huge margin. so i think that while the issue of rising rates does pose a risk to some of the more levered areas of the market for example, utilities sold off hard today. that is one sector that's being bought for dividend yield and it is the most levered sector of the s&p 500. so these so-called safe sectors might not be that safe. >> we keep hearing it it's the fundamentals that keep this bull market going. it's not quantitative easing. all those exogenous things, it's the ability of a company to make money, but if their cost to carry, their cost to borrow goes up, is that what could kill this bull market? >> i think there's really a few factors. the first is the u.s. market is relatively expensive compared to europe or even japan and definitely versus emerging markets. we also have a strong dollar that has had an impact and will

continue to have an impact on earnings of companies and we've seen some down grades even excluding energy and materials. with all this in mind although the u.s. economy clearly is at the front of the train and doing really well versus the rest of the world, the anticipation of normalization of moneytary policy, all of this is giving investors an excuse to take some profits. if you see a deeper air pocket i think this is an opportunity to add back. on a stock by stock basis you have extremely attractive companies listed in the u.s. >> stan druckenmiller said it's not so much today we see the problem as the trajectory could be worse. >> what we've learned at zero rates is the debt which frankly is the reason a lot of the people don't want to raise rates, because the debt is too

high, the debt is accelerating exactly because we have zero rates. corporate debt was $3.5 trillion in 2007 arguably a period many would describe as bubbly. it's $7 trillion now. so it's gone from $3.5 trillion to $7 trillion. >> just this week we've had historic corporate dead issuance again. what if that figure goes to $10 trillion, $15 trillion, what then? >> i think liquidity is of paramount importance which is why i think we're overweight technology higher quality balance sheet companies that they haven't really worked for the last 30 years because we've been in a falling interest rate market. you know what i think we should do now? we should do the opposite of what we did for the last 30 years which is buy the anti-credit sensitive areas of the market. so tech it's a sector that still has net cash. they haven't raised enough debt to offset their huge cash balances. industrials have cleaned up their act. many of these big conglomerates

are sitting on pretty clean balance sheets. good news for a lot of big cap companies in the s&p is their balance sheet is pretty attractive. >> we're out of time really virginie but what about your last? what do you think can survive this period when rates go higher? >> i definitely agree with the bet on quality. i think in the world of new neutral, you definitely want to go for the high quality companies who can find new niche growth opportunities because those are the ones that the market will favor, and, again having very attractive companies targeted and if you see air pockets, have the courage to go and buy them. >> thanks. have a great weekend. >> appreciate it. >> both of you. about 20 minutes to go into the close here. keeping an eye on financial engineering. all the different piece that is have added up to the bull run in

stocks. today that coming to a bit of a pause. the dow is off 299 points as we start to talk about the fed raising rates. that's good for about 7%. nasdaq is off 1.25%. backing off from that 5,000 mark yet again and, remember we just closed above it on monday. >> supposedly. >> we'll go live to the nasdaq market site when we come back for a closer look at what's going on. and will a robot one day take your job? can a robot do what you do? we have people shaking their heads around me. the truth might hurt literally. we'll have that story when we come back. can it make a dentist appointment when my teeth are ready? ♪ ♪ can it track my crew's performance, and protect their heads? ♪ ♪ can it tell the flight attendant to please not wake me this time? ♪ ♪ at cognizant, we see opportunities for every company.

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we were down 300 points just a moment ago. there we go. that's the industrial average. the s&p is down 32 points. the nasdaq is down 62. i joke bertha coombs about the nasdaq allegedly closing above 5,000 on monday because we talked about it for a few years now. wouldn't you know i'm off the day it did it. if i wasn't here it didn't happen. >> that's why it didn't stick, bertha. >> so five days ago, bill we got the nasdaq here the composite slipping to a two-week

low. that said it is the best performer on a percentage basis for the week of the major indexes. it's down just a little less. and take a look at apple here. apple, that dow component glow definitely fading here into the close. just turned negative. we'll see if it manages to pull out a positive day after three straight days of losses. and this is the second week that apple has been down even as the other indexes on all the major indexes have gained. what's interesting is what's been bucking the trend have been financials. we've had all-time highs in the regional banks and ebrokers. the reason the nasdaq has outperformed biotechs even though they are down today, they are up for the fourth straight week. they continue to outperform the overall market. back to you. >> thank you bertha. with 15 minutes to go, watching that closely. >> you see the note from our guy, robert hum, right now with the dow down 30 points0 points, today

is the first day we have seen for the s&p and the dow since january 5th. on track for the second down week in a row as a matter of fact. an ugly day for the markets. we get you to the close coming up here with 14 minutes left. stay tuned. no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like shopping hungry equals overshopping.

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. about 11 minutes left. the dow down 293 points. the nasdaq down 61 points. joining us is david darst and arthur carbonsh carbon cashin. >> it was important support in the s&p at 2085, 2090. then when they broke that there was second tier support at 2070. now we're headed down to the area around 2062 2065. so they've done some real damage to the charts here. >> david, are we going to bounce here? when? >> we have the six cs weighing on the market. construction the bad weather. consumption, the personal consumption number was negative.

you have china. basically the guy comes out with a 7% target for the coming year. you have the chicago purchasing manager's index which fell. finally you have currency foreign currency and new claims. those six things kind ever cascaded down. this is like tom brady getting sacked once in a while. the market is going to go up this year. this is a replay of last year. bad weather, bad numbers, first quarter, but then it bounces in the second and third. that's what i think will happen. >> that was more like five "c"s and a "w" but it was close enough. i was making the comment earlier, all the markets seem to be saying the same thing for once. with the dollar going stronger interest rates going up gold going down they are all expecting the same thing, the fed to raise rates. >> absolutely. i'd like to joke and say the market is doing what it's doing because it thought prosperity is breaking out but it really is worried the fed has boxed itself into a corner. we're data dependent and now we

got the data we're depending on and they're going to have to move. i think they're locked into taking the word patient out in march whether they want to or not. one last thing, the indications are very heavily to the sell side here. i smell a rat. if they were as bad to sell on the close as they indicate which is a billion dollars or more, this market would be in total free fall. >> you have some rebalancing going on coming up right? >> yes, do you. a couple of the subsets, but i don't think you will see volumes swell too greatly. but if you had a billion dollars to sell we'd be down 350 points right now. >> we've said week after week kelly and bill buy japan, buy europe, and these hedged versions of japan and europe europe up 17%, japan up 10%. with the market up 2%. so that's an area that i would think investors should also continue to look at. >> and it's a theme we've had reiterated from everybody by stan druckenmiller with us on monday. from big money to even small

money can get into the trade now that the etf products are available. >> it's a cheap way to do it to hedge out in the currency, the yen in the case of japan and the euro in the case of -- >> one more question, what are you doing tomorrow? ♪ happy birthday to you ♪ ♪ happy birthday to you ♪ ♪ happy birthday to you ♪ ♪ happy birthday dear arthur ♪ ♪ happy birthday to you ♪ [ cheers and applause ] >> we were going to put the right number of candles on but we have fire laws here. >> nobody is more beloved on the floor of the new york stock exchange than art cashin. >> happy birthday. >> what was the wish. >> i can't reveal the wish. >> that's bad luck. >> but i haven't seen the markets turn around yet so we'll see if that was part of it. >> thank you so much. >> happy birthday. >> we'll come back here with the closing kount down and see if we close out. down 290 on the dow right now.

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about 4:30 left. let's recap. this is a rather mowmentous week for a lot of markets. on monday for a brief shining moment it finally closed above 5,000 for first time in 15 years. interestingly, back in march of 2000. but it hasn't looked back since

and we're down today over 1%. for the week the nasdaq is down 0.75%. for the dow we hit a record high on monday same thing, hasn't looked back since then. today we're down 1.6% and down a like amount for the week as well, down 1.58%. the 10-year moving higher especially today with that jobs report. look at that. this is a pop after the jobs report came out this morning. we're up 13 basis points today to 2.24% on the 10-year. for the week, this is a weird way of putting it but the yield is up 12% on the 10-year. a big move there. finally, oil, we've been watching that one move higher as well. putting in a base at $50. today we're at $49.62 down 2.25%. for the week though it's virtually unchanged. but arthur we were saying during the break this is the second of market you were saying six months ago we would have called this -- >> risk off market. >> yeah right? >> but you also proved another

thing. that's the reason why you never see people wearing nasdaq 5,000 hats, because you only get to wear them one day at a final. >> yes. it's a very stylish thing. it doesn't last very long. >> this is normalization. it's a good thing. the markets -- the yields have been way too low. this is normalization. this coming week you could expect some air pocket behavior because there's no real economic news except retail sales and the producer price index on friday. that's not going to do anything. you have to go to the following week and you have the two-day fed meeting and the philly fed, the industrial production you've got the lead economic indicators. >> st. patrick's. it's the wearing of the green, not the spending of the green. >> we talked earlier about taking out support levels here. what do you think is going to happen? i'm not looking for a forecast but what do you think? >> we've done some damage.

i think it's going to take some time to repair. the fed people have one or two-day window here before they have to get silent. if they want to clarify things they'll have to speak up quickly. >> because the feeling is they'll have to take that word patient out of their communique after they meet in march. >> that's a good deal of what this is all about. >> this will be one of the meetings where janet yellen has a news conference to explain herself afterwards. >> and she thought congress was rough, this could be rougher. >> spiel havehe'll have a lot of 'splaining to do. >> we were crying for this a year, two year ago, unemployment down to 5.5%. this is the time to add money to the market. this is a replay of last year. >> to this market? >> to that market. >> you like asia. >> and europe. and some money even into apple. they're going to start with the watch soon and that one you can have -- you're going to have the buyback, the stock buyback.

you got the watch. you've got china. there's still a story ahead on apple. >> what's your take on apple going in in place of at&t a company that has been in and out of the dow since 1916 by the way. >> i know. a great, great old stand-by. but you can't argue in the sense that apple is the major company in the united states right now. >> it's the largest in the world. >> by capitalization. so it has to have some representation, and the dow jones is the oldest index around. >> and you think this will mean more volatility for the dow now don't you? >> because it's a higher priced stock. people have to remember it's dollar weighted. every time a stock in the dow moves a dollar that changes the dow by something like 6.25 6.5 points. when you see a visa or an apple trend above 100, that adds extra volatility. >> it's no longer a devisor, it's a multiplier.

happy birthday again tomorrow. >> thank you. >> have a good weekend. we're going out with this big sell-off. nasdaq 5,000 is only a fading memory from last monday. what does it mean going into a new trading week next week? let's talk about it coming up now on the second hour of "the closing bell" with kelly evans and company. have a good weekend, kel. thank you, bill. welcome to "closing bell," everybody. i'm kelly evans closing out this week on wall street. an ugly day. a historic week by some accounts. the dow jones coming out with a decline of 278 points. that's good enough for 1.5%. art cashin mentioned some big buy orders into the close. we are off about 300 points. closing slightly below that level but still one of the worst sessions we've had this year. the s&p off 29 points. the nasdaq giving up 55. so after closing above 5,000 on monday for the first time in 15 years, today we've retreated. we close at 4927. here today to talk about all of

it wrap things up for us and talk about what happens next our panel. eric chem mi is here from cnbc.com. cnbc contributor and invest net head czarzachary karabell and robert frank and also with the news of apple joining the dow jones industrial average, we have our "fast money" trader tim seymour and jim burnham. john, a big shareholder of apple. one of the few stocks that went higher. it will replace at that time&t in the dow. what does it mean to you, john, as a shareholder? >> all i can say is i think it's about time that apple came in the dow. it's the world's biggest company today, and i think it's a great thing. i don't know how much it actually means to apple. i think it would be a biggser deal if it were joining the s&p which it's already in. it means some people need to buy

the stock who need to own dow jones stocks. i don't think it means much to apple except it's the biggest company in the world. >> eric what do you think it will mean to the dow? >> i don't think physical mean that much because technology will represent 17%. industrial is still 20%. that's the biggest sector. financials at 16%. they were able to get it in because of the visa stock split. >> you were saying though as well for a lot of people it's going to be apple and goldman which are moving this index. >> i wrote up an article on cnbc.com. if you look at the volatility and the price rating you put those two together 26% of the index is just goldman sachs and apple. >> what do you think about the moves today? zachary, the 300-point sell-off what about that? is this all because of the strong jobs report? >> it's clearly a reaction. you saw that by the jump in the 10-year note and we're now up from 1.6% a couple weeks ago to 2.2%. so it's optically and percentagewise a significant

move although we're still in an incredibly low interest rate environment. we should never forget that. one day's move especially when this was every day's move in january and it may not have been 300 points but it was 1% back and forth. so, again, this is just clearly a response to a market that thinks this will give ammunition to the fed to raise rates. if you listen to yellen's testimony and if you listen to what the fed is saying they are much more focus on the quality of jobs and the rate of inflation than they were a couple years ago on the headline unemployment rate. i'm not sure the market reaction is entirely consistent with how the fed is reading the data. >> robert? >> alan greenspan said something obvious but really important this morning which is that what the fed has done is to drive a lot of money into income-producing assets and that has, you know -- that's not just helped stocks but everything i cover there wine art, collectibles. and he said something very basic which is that when those

interest rates go up all of that will reverse, which we all kind of know but the markets clearly are getting nervous about. >> let's talk for a second about utilities. they had a horrible day. off another 3%. this after correcting from the january highs that we had seen earlier. and listen as was pointed out last year this is also a pretty leveraged part of the markets. utilities, do you go near them or start to back away from everything with a big yield and a high valuation? >> i don't think you do. i think today's numbers are very significant because i fall on the side i think the fed is a little behind the curve. you can't have the kind ever job growth we have without seeing wage inflation. but it's also just been said is this the beginning of a multicycle move or a multirate hike move i should say by the fed? that's almost impossible to call. let's say the market's response is almost fear that the fed may overreact, that's what happens today. utilities, you don't throw them out with the bath water. at&t, because of also the news on the index, i think was oversold today and a stock that's still going to give you

close to a 5% dividend yield. there's opportunities to be picking up on utilities even though i believe rates are going higher, they're not going a lot higher. i think you're worried about the extreme positioning. when you look at emerging market currencies, all-time lows were extended even further. mexico and chile and other places that aren't so bad, you're seeing extreme positioning. the rates blowing out on the long end, the u.s. separating from germany. those are things i worry about. >> i have been on this whole concern that change regime of rates, as robert talked about, andgreenspan, let's say the fed magically goes up 100 basis points. >> 1%. >> you're still talking about a 1% rate which may not -- >> but it's relative to what's happening in the rest of the world. >> but it doesn't mean money has great alternatives to flow. there's an expectation of a different kind of rate environment than -- >> i put the question to you. what would a 1% fed funds rate mean for your investments? >> not a lot. i'll tell you, it's very simple. i think the market's reaction

today is mostly program traders taking an opportunity to get out. i don't think the average person in the united states is saying oh, my god, things are so good in the country i better get out of everything. if they raise rates a quarter of a percent or half a percent, i don't think it means anything. every time the economy has a good period, they're going to raise rates. the question is whether something like happened in 1987 when alan greenspan and his crew raised rates way too much too fast and upset the whole economy, that's not going to happen. i think it's meaningless, so i think it's a good buying opportunity after today. >> and feds funds futures, they didn't change that much. we're looking at 22% chance of a hike in june. >> the interesting thing, and this -- >> plus the fact i don't think the fed pays attention to one month's numbers. >> you don't believe they're going to respond differently than you did before this morning's report. >> not than they were going to do yesterday no. >> do you anticipate a june

move? >> i think it will come in june or september, more likely september. >> and then there's the wage inflation thing and there's a legitimate debate about whether or not walmart doing its preempt at this raise from $7.50 an hour it will go up to $9 or $10 is a sign of a tightening market and wages going up which would be the pattern you would expect except there's very little evidence of that pattern playing out. the fed is looking at that more than the headline number and the am of jobs. >> i think people are being sanguine about positioning. if you're a trader the things you want to do is simplify your portfolio. this isn't a time to be bottom fishing and grabbing stuff that's sold off eye aggressively even though i said utilities have been oversold. i think the weekend press will create more hysteria about where rates may go. if you look at gold and currencies these are things you don't want to mess with right

now. >> i think like you said, currencies, look at the euro/yen level. but the s&p is actually much better off. it's above the 50-day 100-day, and 200-day moving averages. even at this level, 2060 is the 50-day average. we're still in good territory. if we had these levels a month ago we'd be talking about what a great high it was. >> jon? >> i'm very optimistic on the market and i'm not particularly at all worried about today's action, and i think the average person should be out there buying good companies, earning good money, paying good dividends and raising dividends and buy these securities and keep them. i'm not much of a trader myself. >> just to reiterate some of your positions, you have chipotle linkedin costco, united health google -- >> these are all companies we bought and kept and, you know, i could have sold -- maybe i should have sold apple when it was at $700. i kaept it it went down.

now it's over $1,000 on that basis. i just think you keep good companies. you don't necessarily -- you're not necessarily smart enough to buy them back. >> how important is the u.s. consumer right now to your holdings and what do you think the u.s. consumer is going to look like throughout the course of this year in terms of spending strength and income strength? >> i think the average -- you know, the more employment keeps going up the more people are going to be able to spend. if gasoline prices stay low, which they may not, but i think they will -- >> you have got a lot of consumer underarmour, apple. you're betting on the consumer. >> certain stocks. under armour is a very hot company. they're doing everything right. >> it's also -- >> chipotle mexican grill is a rapidly growing restaurant company. i'm interested in growth and earnings not -- and relatively

big size. >> and, tim, what were you going to say there? >> jon has done a great job picking great stocks. chipotle trades at over 100 times earnings. at this phase of the cycle, this is why i preach caution. i think the world is an okay place. europe will outperform the u.s. stocks in the u.s. that have had such a great run, markets, you need to take a breath and look around and say it's complicated. >> any concerns about an upward u.s. dollar spiral? >> sure yeah. if you look at the dollar we haven't had this kind of spike move. we've essentially matched the move that went into the crisis period where it was a flight to quality. this is a fed move and it's a sense to me that the dollar can go higher. i think it's going to overshoot on the way up. i think multinationals will feel that pain. i think a lot of it has been priced in but we don't know where this is going and this kind of move is not orderly. again, i think you have to be careful. the euro is not supposed to move

like that multiple times in one week. >> a quick last word jon. >> there again, when i went to the wharton school years ago, one of the things i learned there was a strong dollar means a strong country. i see nothing bearish about the dollar going up and staying up and maybe you trade it a little bit, but this is very good for this country worldwide. >> i imagine then you don't have a lot of patience for multinationals in the months and quarters ahead who will say the dollar is a real headwind. >> i think the u.s. is the place to be right now. >> thanks jon. thanks, tim as well. stick around to catch more of tim seymour on "fast" at 5:00. they will be talking to the analyst talking about apple joining the dow three years ago. up next, from the floor of the nyse, we'll be joined by reporters with insight for more. the dow finally getting a bite

of the apple. apple is in and at&t is out. could getting kicked out of the dow give at&t's underperforming stock a boost? if recent history is a guide, the answer is a resounding yes. that's next.

welcome back. a brutal day in the markets. let's get to it with our all-star floor show. bertha coombs at the that is dak, rick santelli at the cme, courtney reagan on the nyse floor, and jackie deangelis at the nymex for us. kick us off, court gri. >> it's been a really interesting day with the start of the jobs report. we saw the futures react only slightly but we started down right at the beginning of the day and we only slipped further. it's a pattern we've seen actually the last several jobs reports. we talk about it all the time. we're where good news is too good because then we think now the fed is going to have to raise rates because they put themselves in a corner and said they're so dependent on the data and that data looks pretty good. the utilities really weak the weakest sector down 3% double as bad as what the best of the utility index did. it's that rate sensitive group of stocks. when interest rates are rising or the fear that interest rates will rise, that group performs

pretty weak breaking through that 200-day moving average. a lot of moves that made sense. independence why they went that way, but it's all sort of connected, dollar vix, rates, you name it it's all connected to what the fed may or may not do a little sooner. >> ridgeck, where do we look for cues into next week? >> i think it's fascinating after the ecb meeting we had bund yields close at a six-week high. they closed just a whisker under 40. they haven't closed at a high yield like this since the 26th of january. another half basis point put have put a 40 handle on it. it hasn't closed with a marker like that since the last fed meeting on the 22nd. the important question where was the 10-year rate the last time a bund was here? around 1.82%. so i think you want to keep handicapping the differences between europe and the u.s. especially at a point where we're supposed to see the qe push rates down from historic already low levels in europe. >> and mean while, it was oil

that was pushing this market around for a while, jackie. but today that got overshadowed didn't it? >> it definitely did. what's so interesting about the oil trade right now is how volatile it's been within a range. all traders telling me this wants to move one way or another. hard to say which way it's going to go. there were a lot of factors being overshadowed by this strong dollar many are expecting to go higher. 9 first would be geopolitical turmoil, more fighting in iraq and also 11 fields closed down in libya. so that's a production issue. typically would be bullish here. also a lot of traders are looking at the track spreads giving them bullish signals. again, they were very spooked by the dollar and i find that interesting because we had an inventory build of more than 10 million barrels this week. that was not enough to spook them to the downside. yow we're under $50, brent is under $60 and the question is what is going to give us momentum from here. do we take that leg lower? it's possible. in 2009 when we saw prices in the low 30s, that was because of

a strong dollar and that's the common theme here. >> and bertha we'll get to you in one moment but i'm looking, zachary, at you and the discussion we just had with jon burrham about whether a strong dollar is good for bad for the economy. >> if you're purely an export business and you're in a manufacturing business in the u.s. that is keyed around manufacturing, it's a headwind but, you know, currency is never the zero sum that it's perceived unless you are very specifically in that and i think for american consumer the fact is it increases buying power for imports which is a good thing. may not be great for our trade balance and our gdp optics but so what. you combine that with the lower price of gasoline and you will see enhanced purchasing power. >> let's give a little credit to companies that saw this coming in the late fall. they're going to hedge. and while the moves may not be as dramatic for the rest of the year as they have been for parts of the first quarter, the impact on corporate earnings is not going to be what we saw in the first quarter where it was too sudden.

companies responded. they're going to hedge, so i don't think it's going to be as severe going forward. >> but what about what it means for wage growth? we talk about maybe the wages aren't going up as much. if the dollar is stronger like zachary said if you can buy more with that -- >> greek property rome hotel rooms. bertha, what are people looking at over at the nasdaq? >> you know it's an interesting thing because we have seen the nasdaq when it has closed above 5,000. it has kind of proven to be a curse for the index, but at the risk of uttering those very scary words, this time could be different. one of the things i'm looking at is apple, of course now being added to the dow. sometimes that's a little bit like the "sports illustrated" cover curse. you know you're being added here at the top of your game. apple is facing the law of big numbers. is it going to continue to put out those all-time highs? but with the introduction of the watch, it's going to be early. may not be now, but apple when it plays, it does play to win in

these new product introductions. the other thing is to think about 15 years ago, the that is dak nasdaq may have topped out at 5,000 but one of the things that caused the downturn in the aftermath was the government going after microsoft. you had the courts ruling that microsoft had to break out. that really spooked everybody about technology and notwithstanding some black swan event, you don't have that overhang right now. >> i would absolutely agree. i don't think you have -- this whole sort of comparison around -- we talked about it earlier -- of nasdaq 5,000 as a bugaboo because we remember the last time it hit 5,000, i understand the human impulse but 15 years later, i think i'm repeating myself but if we're still in a bubble, then it's a 15-year bubble that failed to pop because we're exactly where we were 15 years ago. >> but that's 15 years ago. that number needs to be 7,000

today to even -- >> that's right. >> but where we look for bubbles, history echoes and mark cuban i thought started a very important debate this week about bubbles and a lot of it is in the private equity and venture capital side. the number of companies worth $1 billion or more that haven't gone public. there are bubbles but it may not be in the nasdaq. >> or it might be in what you look at in terms of wine and art. >> see if the strong dollar pokes any of them. thanks, everybody. usually getting kicked out of a club is not a good thing but with apple replacing at that time, things could be looking up for the tellico stock. a new report estimating nearly more than a million more robots doing what would otherwise have been people's jobs over the next decayed decayed. how that will impact the labor market ahead on "the closing bell."

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the dow is getting set for a major shake-up. apple will replace at&t and that's after the close of trading on wednesday, march 18th. so bad news for at&t? well, not so fast. recent history suggests getting kicked out of the dow can actually be pretty good news for a stock. dominic chu breaking it down for us. >> kelly, the theory here is that some people say when it gets kicked out of the deep south, it means it's been so beaten up it's no longer relevant, maybe it marks a bottom and those that go into the index go in because they've

become the titans of their business and maybe they're near the top of their maturity cycle. let's talk about the dow the last time we a rebalance of it. that was september 20th 2013. that's when it took effect. that's when a lot of stocks like bank of america went out, also hewlett-packard and alcoa. the market overall was up about 10%, 11%. the dow in the one year after this reconstitution happened that's our benchmark. now take a look at some of the stocks. the ones that got kicked out. look at bank of america shares. after it got kicked out in the one year the dow was up 10.5%. bank of america shares rose by 16%. so outperformed the overall dow. hp hewlett-packard, it was a stellar mover, 73% gains after it got kicked out of the dow, and then the last one we're going to look at was the biggest of them all. this was alcoa. the stock is not as large as it used to be but look at this chart. the stock basically doubled

after it got kicked out of the dow in the one year subsequent. this is not to date. this is in the one year. this is not the general rule. a lot of stats can be manipulated one way or the another, but it tells new recent history some of the stocks tend to outperform when they get kicked out of the dow. it might be one reason some investors are looking a little more closely not just because of the dividend yield. >> dom, thank you. should at&t embrace being evicted from the dow 30? let's get more from jeff hirsch, editor and chief of the stock traders almanac. what does the almanac say about these kind of moves? >> it's not something we necessarily track but we keep track of the dow. i have the original dow book et edited by pierce that has all the numbers. a lot of these stocks have already taken care of the issues, begun to remedy the problems getting them kicked out by the time they're out and the stocks that are coming in at

their peak. this is not something that's new but i don't think apple coming into the dow is such a bad thing for the market or for apple in the short-term. >> zach? >> i'm wondering, i don't know if this is a question that's that answerable by you, but how much does the dow currently matter other than a historical legacy? i don't say that negatively. it's just that no pension plan i know of pegs their returns to the dow. very few investors do. what's the role of the dow in today's market? >> well i mean i think that's part of why they may be bringing apple in there. the hey, look at me type of move. the dow is what the guy on the street knows. it still has relevancy for tracking the market. you're talking about 30 of the most influential stocks in the world, which i find valuable in indicators, market indications and as a barometer. going forward for money managers, no it's not used a whole lot, but people do trade the diamonds and i think it's

something that really touches retail people. you still ask what the market did today and you're talking about it was down 300 points. >> do you have a sense of what the dow might look like if apple had joined three or more years ago. >> substantially higher. it increases the multiplier because the divisor is a fraction. each stock of the dow will be giving a little -- each dollar rise in each stock is a little bit more to the dow going forward now that apple is coming in and visa is splitting. >> what do you think about that? you mentioned visa splitting. that's the main reason apple is getting in now. if visa doesn't do that split what happens to the dow? what happens to apple in terms of this partnership? >> you know i'm not sure that the move of apple splitting the stock back in last year 7 for 1, wasn't a set up to get in there. i'm sure there was some knowledge that visa might be doing this. you know i don't think it's as much of a push for the market

here, but, you know, apple is the biggest company in the world. i have got my iphone sitting here next to me but, you know, in all truthfulness that's about all they really sell these days. this watch thing looks like it might be a disappointment and we're lightening up on the tech stocks here. this is not something that i think is bullish long term for apple. it's just one of those things trying to get attention i think for the dow. >> all the time i wonder as well when people about the replacement value it's going to have and the way it drives the market from here or moves the dow, as eric was saying earlier, it's 19% technology currently. going down to 17% in the dow. shouldn't it be headed the other way? >> i think that apple stock is probably towards the high right now and that's why something -- one of the reasons we've been lightening up on technology here. so, you know, you have to put this company in the basket of the most influential companies in the world. it's just -- it should have been in there a long time ago. >> we'll leave it there.

thanks. >> thanks very much. >> jeff hirsch editor of the stock trader's almanac. nearly 300,000 created last month but is this really why the market sank today? we'll talk about that next. first, sue herera joins us with a news update. >> hi kelly. here is what's happening this hour. sources tell nbc news that federal criminal charges could come later this month against new jersey senator robert menendez. the senator has been under investigation for accepting free plane rides from a florida eye doctor possibly in return for political favors, but menendez and the doctor deny any wrongdoing. the fda has approved the first lower cost copy of a biotech drug here in the u.s. they are powerful injected medicines produced in living cells. the drug is called zario made by novartis. and nasa engineers say the spacecraft dawn is finally orbiting the mini planet 310

million miles from earth. it was launched in september of 2007. talk about sticker shock. the new ford gt super car will reportedly cost $400,000. ford only plans to make about 250 of those vehicles. the two-seater will reportedly go on sale in the second half of 2016. it's good looking. that's 9 cnbc newsthe cnbc news update for this hour. ♪ ♪ ♪ tigers, both of you. tigers? don't be modest. i see how you've been investing.

setting long term goals. diversifying. dip! you got our attention. we did? of course. you're type e* well, i have been researching retirement strategies. well that's what type e*s do. welcome home. taking control of your retirement? e*trade gives you the tools and resources to get it right. are you type e*? ♪ at mfs, we believe in the power of active management. every day, our teams collaborate around the world to actively uncover, discuss and debate investment opportunities. which leads to better decisions for our clients. it's a uniquely collaborative approach you won't find anywhere else. put our global active management expertise to work for you. mfs. there is no expertise without collaboration.

welcome back. before 8:30 this morning when the initial jobless -- or the payroll report i should say came out, the futures indicated a higher opening. it all went down in a big way after that report hit though. many fearing it was so strong, it could prompt the fed to move sooner than previously expected but are these numbers actually as good as they look? joining us now to talk about it matthew slaughter, former economic adviser to george w. bush, fou professor at dartmouth. welcome. and tom gymble president and ceo of la salle network. tom, a lot of people are saying unambiguously strong report. what do you say? >> i think it's pattern. we did studies and showed in february following six years after the beginning of a recession, our target estimate was 311,000 jobs. it's right in line with what i

thought, at the same time what did people want. if it had been 350,000 jobs the interest rates would have gone up. >> what i want a wage growth. to be up 2.5% dare i say 3% year on year? >> that would be fabulous. tom's analysis is right in terms of the number of jobs. the fed helps create jobs and helps control prices. helps set the prices of radios and rutabagas, you name it. they can't create good paying jobs. that's not in the purview of the fed. things aren't being addressed like corporate tax reform. >> matt it's zachary, i wonder about the whole dual mandate aspect of the fed which is a legacy of the late 1970s when congress had no idea what to do with the economy. do we really know there is in fact, some sort of connection

between an interest rate move and job creation or could this simply be correlated cycles. the economy picks up people start hiring and then the fed either takes credit for that or doesn't. why do we think there's such a connection between fed activity and employment when we didn't think that before the late 1970s? >> great question. so the fed itself i think -- the chairs of the fed, you look at chairman bernanke before chairman yellen now, they're wise in knowing there's limits to how much they understand what the fed does. the changes in the size and composition of the fed's balance sheet has impact on millions of businesses, on capital markets around the world, on tens of millions of workers. so i think if you look at the speeches in recent years of fed governors and fed presidents, they acknowledge they're trying to support the labor market in terms of the number of jobs and up employment, but their ability to shape the quality of those jobs has a lot more to do with the types of workers, the public

infrastructure, the kind of companies we have operating in america. >> tom, talk about your company. just from your point of view forgetting all this top level stuff, how strong do you think the economy is? >> right now we're seeing more companies hiring in the midwest. the majority of our business is locally in chicago. we're seeing more companies hire across the board both at lower paying wages and high paying wages. we're starting to see a lot of pickup in the midstaff level stuff. >> people are talking about the quality of jobs but like we've been talking about, the fed can't necessarily control that but step one is getting people a job and then worrying about the quality -- >> isn't that a lot the parms participation rate? he want to be in the high 60s. people don't want to take too much of a hit in their own salary to take a lesser job in their own space. what the market is telling them is you're not good in your own space and there's no personal accountability to that. we have to get people to realize they need to make a career transition and i don't want to use the buzz words again and again, it's a skills gap. >> do y do you think we're seeing employment growth without

wage growth. you're on the front line. why aren't we seeing higher wages? >> company finally got smart after the last recession following '01. they're not hiring foolishly. what they're doing is you're not seeing people hire in huge volumes anymore and then they're not doing huge layoffs. so they don't have to give huge increases. people are going to start leaving and we're starting to see more people at permanent positions starting to voluntarily look for positions and be aggressive. but companies don't have to pay huge amounts. >> matthew, we were discussing this earlier. pretty contentiously. if we know that wages are the last thing to fall into place in a business cycle, shouldn't the fed be getting ahead of that? do they have to wait to see the wage pressure we discussed before making a morph here? >> so it's important, great question, to distinguish nominal wage pressure and general increases in all prices from real wage growth. it's useful to contrast we've had 60 months of consecutive private sector job creation which is great. the last time we had that was 1996 into early 2001. the big difference is what was

going on in the u.s. economy at that time in addition to a tightening of the labor market was a productivity boom linked toism t. and what companies were doing at the time were investing in a lot of new i.t. capital, they had new innovations coming on. that's what facileitated not just creation of jobs but good jobs. that's a notable contrast to what we're seeing play out. >> but it all blew up though. so that's not the best example that we should be looking at. >> the over investing in fiberoptics and infrastructure i don't think the labor market was -- >> and productivity. and i would wonder is there really with the labor force participation at 62%, it's actually going down -- >> yep. >> if you're the fed and you're thinking about an interest rate environment, that is not the definition of anything resemble resembling a light tab market and it goes for -- >> unless it's demographics. >> i think there's a lot to that. when you look at the unemployment rate particularly we shouldn't even be talking about it nationally. it should all be geographically. we have to create an

unemployment benefit that actually tiers it so we're encouraging people to go back to work even if they're at a lesser salary and they're not willing to risk losing their unemployment benefits. there's some deep issues. >> is there some value in the stability? like you said we're not going to see as many layoffs, is that a good thing in the long run? >> aside from what's going on in texas with the problem in oil, and you see it en masse, but otherwise you're right, you're not seeing articles on the front page of the paper saying, you know "x" company laying off 50,000 workers. >> that's interesting. matthew, last word to you on this. >> we really need to see more of that. we've got it try to have an improvement in a lot of indicators in the labor market including the gross hiring and gross job destruction to get people matched into better jobs. >> all right. we'll leave it there. thanks matt and tom, appreciate it. we've been covering the ensuing sell off on wall street from every angle today. up next the big story on k

strelt. hillary clinton's private e-mail controversy putting her presidential ambitions in jeopardy? "meet the press" moderator chuck todd joins us to weigh in when we come back. at ally bank no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like shopping hungry equals overshopping.

todd joins us to weigh in when

we've been talking about the big sell-off today, but the sunday morning talk shows are going to be talking about a very different topic, hillary clinton's e-mails. for more on that fallout, let's bring in "meet the press" moderator chuck "today." good to see you. >> nice to see you, kelly.

>> you will have a whole discussion about this but how much are her odds for 2016 affected by what happened this week? >> i don't think -- we can't sit here and say this is permanently damaging to her and her chances to be the nominee. i mean i think she had probably a 90% chance to be the nominee last week. this revelation makes her 88% chances of being the nominee. in that respect i don't think it's as much of an issue. the problem for her though is that it's not going to go away. because now you have a congressional republican committee that feels as if they've been legitimized, that the benghazi committee that democrats and hillary clinton supporters have been trying to dismiss as a witch hunt found something fairly significant. the idea she went around maybe she followed the letter of the law but not the spirit of the law and what else is missing. it empowers them to keep the investigations going. when there is a congressional investigation in a middle of a presidential campaign, you don't know what they're going to turn up. it may be a fishing expedition

but sometimes you catch fish on fishing expeditions. >> zachary? >> chuck, i have a piece in politico coming up about this whole culture of obsessive secrecy on the one hand and obsessive gotcha on the other which is forcing officials into this kind of no h1n1 win-win. one, will this become the jeb bush issue. and two, how does any candidate, particularly in a media context, answer the charge of if you have nothing to hide why don't you show us everything? >> look i think there does need to be something that's reasonable. many people use e-mail in place of oral conversation and it's not as if in years past we archived oral conversations unless you're richard nexton and onon onon -- nixon and were taping everybody. there has to be some xhon sense. the reason jeb bush and clinton supporters have been trying to use jeb bush to deflect this issue. jeb bush disclosed e-mails before it became an issue.

he had an e-mail address that the entire state of florida, trust me if you covered jeb bush, and i did for a long time everybody knew his e-mail address. everybody in the state of florida. so it is -- he still is able to win more points on transparency than hillary clinton. the other issue is that this fits into sort of the narrative of the clintons over time which is why is it that they always seem to -- maybe they're following the letter of the law but they always sort ever skirt the rules in some form or another and that's what this looks like. >> chuck, what about the concept that hillary has this core base of people that aren't going to give up on her and the people who don't like her were never going to vote for her anyway. maybe it was 90%, now it's 88%. this number doesn't really change. >> exactly. i don't think this hurts her inside the democratic party, but you talk to democratic leaders like i have this week and the hand wringing is sort of like, oh god, here we go again on one hand. on the other they say this is the clintons they always know

how to get out of a jam. i go back to the issue of having active congressional investigations in a presidential year that at any moment in time some leak from one of these committees and now they feel legitimized to keep this going could turn into maybe it's a bad two days of press but maybe that's at the wrong place at the wrong time and the wrong moment of the campaign during the general election. that's why this is going to be an ongoing lingering issue for her simply because it motor swrats congress to keep going. >> can't let you go without asking about the fallout from netanyahu's address to congress earlier this week. the prospects for a deal in iran. these iranian negotiations where do we stand? >> i don't think anything has changed on that front. i think some things get lost quickly. remember the u.s. isn't negotiating with iran alone. you have five other countries who are more lenient about the sanctions than the u.s. is president obama is. i'm talking about england, france, germany, russia and china. so that's another thing that

gets lost and i think in what has been simplistic coverage of this controversy. i don't think anything changes on that front. i think you're still going to see -- more likely see a deal than not, and could you argue that his presence here in this country made the obama administration dig in their heels even more. >> is there any intrigue yet, chuck, or information you can share with us as well about the charges that senator robert menendez is expected to face the corruption charges? >> this has been rumored for quite some time. one thing about senator menendez politically, i have watched him a long time the guy seems to escape a lot when it comes to allegations like this. i think let's wait to see if the charges actually come. if they come there's probably going to be pressure for him to not just give up committee assignments, there may be pressure on him to resign. >> thank you. host of "meet the press." on the program chuck will take a deep dive into the latest clinton scandal.

don't miss a moment of that. a very strong jobs report today but will the labor market be as good when robots start doing more and more jobs? zachary can't wait to talk about this. next. but at t. rowe price we've helped guide our clients through good times and bad. our experienced investment professionals are one reason over 85% of our mutual funds beat their 10-year lipper averages. so in a variety of markets we can help you feel confident. request a prospectus or summary prospectus with investment information risks, fees and expenses to read and consider carefully before investing. call us or your advisor. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. you're driving along, having a perfectly nice day, when out of nowhere a pick-up truck slams into your brand new car. one second it wasn't there and the next second... boom! you've had your first accident. now you have to make your first claim. so you talk to your insurance company and... boom! you're blindsided for

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welcome back. unemployment in this country at 5.5%. pretty good, even if the market had a fit. will it stay that low if robots start doing more and more of the jobs that people in this country are now doing? mary thompson joins us with what some see as a disturbing trend. >> here's the good news. robotics firms are hearing. i'm here at i robot in massachusetts adding 100 jobs this year. they're best known for making the robotic vacuum, the roomba and this pac bottom. robotics are on the rise. in 2008 i robot said there wasn't another robotic firm within 150 miles of this location. now there are more than 100 within 30 miles. and boston consulting group forecast global spending will jump from $27 billion this year to $65 billion by 2025.

as manufacturers spend more on robots in the next decade boston consulting sees them spending less on labor. >> we're thinking about something like a 16% drop in the labor costs for manufacturing plants over this time period. >> driving adoption you can buy a robot for a tenth of the price ten years ago and new technology let's you reprogram them to do different tasks in as little as 30 minutes. this is expected to impact the lower-skilled labor market while adding higher-paying jobs higher-skilled jobs to build and manage that robotic work force. bcg estimates maybe some manufacturing if they mix a robot with a human, their work force costs will decline enough for them to bring some of the manufacturing they put overseas back home. we'll have to see. back to you. >> mary as people eagerly wait to see whether this will be the 21 century trend that takes our

jobs. >> in this case la tesla said in the 21st century the robot will take the place which slave labor occupied in ancient civil legislation. mankind to pursue higher aspirations. we have been talking about this for 120 years and maybe now it will start to come. >> yes, maybe now. thanks everybody. thanks, mary. amazing book ends for this market. stocks posting record highs monday but still a major selloff today. next week more of the same. the panel with what they're watching when we're back in two. at ally bank no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like mute buttons equal danger. ...that sound good? not being on this phone call sounds good. it's not muted. was that you jason? it was geoffrey! it was jason. it could've been brenda. ameriprise asked people a simple question: in retirement, will you have enough money to live life on your terms? i sure hope so. with healthcare costs, who knows. umm... everyone has

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welcome back. a wild week for the markets. stocks soared. nasdaq closing above 5,000 monday and a sharp selloff today. what will next week bring? robert, what are you watching? >> if you look at asset prices overall, i canthink the tip of the sphere is car prices. next week starts the amelia island auction. we have more than a dozen porsches expected to sell for over $1 million. that to me is a bubble. we're going to see whether it keeps inflating next week or not. >> zachary? would you buy a porsche that costs more than $1 million? >> no i would not. but i'm not a car person. i grew up in new york and have

been riding subways since i was nothing. i would look at whether or not the interest rate flurry and fear continues. what it ends up on the ten-year or whether or not this is just another modest day of reset. >> yeah. the u.s. dollar -- we'll come back to that in a second. eric? >> three regional fed presidents speak monday so i'm curious what they might say happened today and the outlook for the fed forecast. >> it's interesting. their window is to close, so they have to talk now. and i wonder in light of the jobs report today and some of the moves we have seen if they might try to come out and set market expectations, walk them back. >> i think what's been really confusing about fed speak for the past weeks if not the past months habits extremely contradictory. one moment they say we're data-dependent, going to wait and see inflation. the next moment, this concern about being behind the curve. >> you know they want to normalize. we know they want to normalize. >> we also know they're unclear about what normalization actually means in this particular market. >> eric -- >> schizophrenic markets on monday.

but shake shack is having earnings next week. >> what day? >> that's on wednesday. that could be interesting if you want to look for obesity drugs. >> actually restaurant space, in the job numbers again, really strong. performance for the stocks really strong. that shake shack performance day one was impressive. >> that's why i think the earnings will be interesting to see. >> can they bear it out. >> we'll see if their business is expanding. >> you had to sneak that in there. eric, would you buy a porsche for $1 million? >> i'm more likely to buy a shake shack. >> robert do we think there is any risk? you brought this up at the top of the show. want to end on this note. flood into these different assets. does that end, pop, change if we're talking about a different regime with higher rates? >> most assets whether talking u.s. stocks or german bonds, are held and owned by a small group of people that have a lot of money. it's hard to imagine a scenario where they have to get out really quickly at distressed prices. so i think all of these bubbles, all these asset bubbles, including stocks, in some areas, will continue because that

money is so sticky. >> all right. we ought to leave it there. gentlemen, thank you so much for joining us this afternoon. really appreciate it. a great weekend to you all. that does it for us here. have a great weekend, everybody. "fast money" is coming up in just a moment. nasdaq market site over looking new york city's times square. tim seymour, dan nathan brian kelly and pete najarian. a sea of red on the street today with the dow tanking 278 points. this marking the worst day for both the dow and nasdaq since january 27. the dollar meantime soaring, to an 11-year high and gold erasing, falling just under 3%. this as the u.s. economy added 290 jobs in the month of february. speeding up the expected time line for the fed to start raising rates. are we in a good news is bad news for the market scenario pete najarian, what do you say? >> certainly today, that was the reaction.