well at all times, so we're managing 30 and 40 year money. it's always a buying opportunity for some pocket of the market or even for a broad swath. >> i'm going to do final trades with you two fellows. >> imax bought it today because of unusual activity. >> intel based on this new apple lop top. >> josh on deer and the s&p vix. that's it for us. power starts now. >> halftime is over. power lunch and the second half of the trading day start right now. >> good afternoon, everyone. welcome to "power lunch." the markets are falling hard along with mandy drury. i'm tyler mathison. >> let's get up-to-date on what the markets are doing. there's a lot of red out there. let's bring up the board and show you the score. the dow is currently off. it's off by 1.4%. the nasdaq is down by the same amount percentage terms. the s&p is hitting a 2052 down by 1.3% as well as the russell 2k. the little guys the small caps off by 1.1%. >> there are three plausible reasons for this drop. we're going to spell them out for you and explain why they are

so important so you can use them to make your next move. >> and then there is this. well, this is no fun. that's i-95 near washington. no major injuries fortunately, but when traffic is backed up for miles, is that gasoline tanker blocking all southbound lanes. >> and on that road a million times and that is a day worth of trouble. let's get straight to this selloff on the street. the dow and the s&p wiping out their gains for 2015. oil moving lower. bob on the new york stock exchange. sarah eisen and what it's doing, and bertha coombs up at nasdaq. >> the rapid update of tracking forecast that give us the immediate look at gdp and how the data changes it.

>> bottom line we're back to growth in the low twos, tyler. >> i just want to also ask you a follow-up question because mr. fisher a known hawk i believe spoke last night. he is no long air voting member but nonetheless, what he says does still have influence on the market. tell us exactly what he said. >> so i think the story is that richard fisher said two things that one i think is worth paying attention to. the other one maybe -- he called for immediate rate increases, and i don't think that's going to be followed by the federal reserve, but he did discuss the issue of if they wait too long they're going to have to have a steeper incline of rates once they get there. i think that fear is shared on the federal reserve. the fed is going to want to begin increasing as soon as they think it's the right time to increase rates. i don't know when exactly that is. fisher throwing out the lack of wage growth. i think other members of the federal reserve think that's

more important. >> yeah. a lot of different views on what exactly the right time is right? steve, thank you so much. let's get down to bob and take a look at the action there. there is a lot of action and it certainly seems to be caused by a perfect storm, bob. >> yeah. it's funny. we have most of the damage in the first 15 minutes, and then we were steady for the next several hours. now that europe has closed we drifted lower again. actually, that's the opposite of what people were thinking. take a look. the s&p 500, 3-1 declining stock advances. much more volume on the down side. this is an unusual day. 85% of the volume at the new york stock exchange going to stocks on the down side. even with only 3-1 decline to advancing stocks.

particularly along the yeeltdz on the ten-year for example on the up side. take a look at the ten-year yield. that has been moving up since the beginning of february, and that's been the main mover of the bank stocks. commodity stocks have been weak today. you have the strong tlar. you have weak crude. that's hurting the xop, oil and gas exploration companies as well as metals. that's the xme that you are seeing there. finally, we've been noting that the strong dollar has been a real problem for the emerging markets. eighth straight day for decline in the eem. that is the emerging market etf. mandy, back to you. >> now doing a lot of damage there. we'll auk more about the currency situation with sarah. let's get to the nasdaq which is off by 1.4% right now. bertha, today happens to be the 15-year anniversary of the nasdaq's all-time high right? >> yeah. it is the 15th anniversary. nasdaq hitting 5,000. a week ago monday seems so long

away. this morning we've been watching biotechs. they've done a reversal. they were the worst performers. that's something to watch this afternoon to see people are rotating back into those names. chip stocks have been under pressure. although ironically you think chips, they produce in ages. the strong dollar may benefit them in terms of their materials. apple has really been the big magilla, and what's really weighing down the big caps. responsible for a 12-point decline on the nasdaq 100. really selling off hard today. with an upgrade from bma. fossil hit a 52-week low. that's a watch maker. they have bounced. urban wrout fitters is the leader in the s&p 500 after

posting better than expected shares. tooil tyler, i know joe your wife likes them as do i, and they are very big into bohemian clothes, which is going to be very, very big, guys this spring. >> oh, is that so? >> joe likes boho. joe's knows boho. >> we'll be talking more about urban outfitters, believe it or not, in just a second. certainly one of the good news stories we have for our viewers to listen to in a second. in the meantime, breaking news. from the bond market right now. three-year notes. rick santelli what's demand like? >> well demand was a for apple, and no wonder. let's see. down $244 on the dow. down $27.15. those are a couple of good reasons for the auction to get an a. let's go through -- $24 billion three-year notes. it looked to be trading in the one issue market. lower yield. higher price. that's a good thing. the bid to cover at 3.33 was

above the ten auction average. 51.4 going to indirects. the best since april of 2010. the only reply in the ointment -- last auction was 7.2. besides those two, you have to go all the way back to april of 2012 to find an equivalent number. dealers take 40% of the auction. it was solid, solid, solid. of course tomorrow we'll have $21 billion in tens. mandy, back to you. >> thank you very much. rick santelli. over to you, ty. >> thanks mandy. the strength of the u.s. dollar has been worrying the markets and investors. the greenbacks sitting at a 12-year high against many of the major currencies. sar yooizen with some of the fall-out. sarah, what's going on? >> everyone wants -- it is the speed of the move, though, that has people worried today. it is not normal for a currency to get 11% in a matter of 3.5 months. in fact for it to gain 22% in 20 12 months. that is exactly what has happened for the dollar's value

against the euro. in fact, if you just go back five years on the dollar look at the dollar as the dollar index. basket of other currencies. you can see over five years doesn't move that much and then boom, the dollar shoots up in the middle of last year and it's been going up since. the last 24 hours it has been an aggressive move. here's the key. it's a u.s. story about a stronger u.s. economy and signals from the federal reserve for higher interest rates driving up the value of the dollar at the exact same time you have weakness abroad fueling ease where i policies overseas. lower interest rates and emerging markets. you have a double whammy and it's much more powerful of a move than normal. that's what's going on against this back drop. there's no end in sight unless the federal reserve for some reason holds off. that's one reason the forecasts are come down every single day. just today deutsche bank cut its forecast for euro to go all the way down to parody by the end of this year. 90 cents next year. that causes pain for funds that have poured money overseas for

companies that do business overseas. for whichedties prices. it is a world of pain. keep in mind guys in general a strong dollar isn't necessarily bad for u.s. investors. it actually may be good in the long run, but this move this quickly, this sharply, and this disorderly, does cause volatility and could be disruptive, and that is certainly what's going on today, tyler. >> all right sarah, thanks very much. sarahizen reporting. oil prices as sarah just referenced, trouble for commodities because of the rising dollar. oil prices sliding in today's sell-off and it's not all dollar realed. jackie deangeles on the floor of the nymex. >> hi. good afternoon to you. you know what it is really dollar related today. if you take a look at the wti chart and also the chart of the dollar, you see the chart of the dollar spiking up in wti. that's selling pressure really intensifying throughout the day. right now we're trading at $46.66. we're down $1.33. what traders are telling me is they need to see a settle below $48 to really feel like the down

side pressure is on. they do think that we are going to see more dollar up side and it could send crude lower, but at the same time they're looking at this negative price action today and saying you know this looks like it's just keeping crude from going up at this point. they want to see something that will really take it lower. production numbers also are in focus. the eia is actually saying that the u.s. output this year will not just be 9.3 million barrels per day. that is the previous projection. 9.35 a little even higher. it could just be the catalyst that takes crude lower. when we're talking about brent prices, one of the traders just noting to me before we went on the air here that he is looking for a 38% retracement. he is looking for brent to go from its $63 high to $45.19. if that's what happens, you know brent usually trades at a premium to wti so we could see

that $40 crude that a lot of people have been talking about. >> dollar up. production up. trouble for oil. dominik, market flash. >> shares of lumber liquidators continuing the recent trend of volatility, but today's move sharply to the up side. you can see there by about 11%. now, one of the reasons why a commentary note coming from short selling research firm citron. analysts think that the selloff, believe it or not, in lumber liquidate ors may be largely overdone while presenting caution long or short. now, remember, lumber liquidators has a scheduled call for thursday. back to you where are. >> you can bet your bottom dollar. we will be watching that. thank you very much, dom. well stocks are tanking right now, but there are always still opportunities to make money out there. one stock in the struggling teen retail sector that is looking really good right now. we've already mentioned it. in fact right now it is the top gainer in the s&p 500. also, as we head out, do take a look at how the selloff is looking. that is the big heat map.

the s&p 500. in fact it's falling below its 50-day moving average. can you see it's a sea of red except for that little sliver of green across the top there. plus, leaving you with a incredible video of an oil tanker truck flipping over on its side blocking four lanes of interstate 95 near washington. might want to avoid that part of town. the latest on that is next. can it make a dentist appointment when my teeth are ready? ♪ ♪ can it tell the doctor how long you have to wear this thing? ♪ ♪ can it tell the flight attendant to please not wake me this time? ♪ ♪

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>> we expect to hear from the presumptivetive democratic candidate for president hillary clinton. she's speaking at the united nations. we will spare you that speech but we are going to take a press conference conference. >> will indeed. a tanker truck has flipped over on its side blocking four lanes of interstate 95 and spilling roughly 1,000 gallons of biodiesel fuel outside of beltsville maryland. traffic has shut down in both directions as crews are working to deal with that spill. two people suffered minor injuries in the incident.

>> news of the new ceo former head of prudential. hope i pronounced his name right. will be the first african to lead a global investment bank, and there you see credit swiss shares up 6% today on a very down day. shares of animal health company rising on speculation that the activist investor bill abbingman may pressure valent to acquire. abbingman owns about a $2 billion stake. >> and sky works solutions joining us the s&p 500 after trading closes tomorrow. the semiconductor maker replacing pet smart in the benchmark index. >> let's get to the markets and highlight some of the opportunities out there. our cnbc content editor christina gustafson has great outperformers in the retail sector for us, and a moment ago of course we were talking about urban outfitters. it is the biggest gainer in the s&p 500. what exactly is going on there? this stock has been up what 24% year-to-date? good story going on. >> yes, yes.

definitely. mandy, as you know team retail has been under -- urban wrout fitters has been weighing on the company for a couple of quarters now. the company finally starting to see traction moving forward. the stock is up sharply. >> another outperformer that we are watch issing american eagle. what exactly is the story behind this one? >> that's a similar story happening there, manned where i. it's another company that looks like it's poised for a turnaround. they topped consensus estimates and their own forecast for the most recent quarter. analysts are saying misdemeanor looks good for spring, and as do inventory levels. another good turnaround happening there? >> year-to-date, the stock is up 21%. just mildly positive. on a very down market. certainly not least is zumez, the skate shop. >> there's a different story happening there. they've been more of a consistent outperformer in the teen sector. they're more of a niche retailer. they just said that same store sales were up 7% in february and that was on top of strong fourth quarter sales.

going while there. >> that was last but not least, but i'm going to sneak in another one. i want to know what is going on with aero pos tle. if you take a look at the stock, it's up what 71% year-to-date. down a lot today, but the sales don't seem to really back up that incredible rebound in the stock. why the disconnect? what are people betting on here? >> i think a lot of people are betting on the return of their former ceo and, you know he is making some changes there. they're obviously seeing traction with the sales of their bethenny -- and some of the other special lines. there are good things happening there. i just think a lot of people aren't necessarily convinced yet. to your point, the stock subpoena. there are some believers out there. >> we will see. thank you for joining us. christina. those were opportunities in this selloff, and coming up in the second hour of power lunch, five restaurant stocks that you want to. not just bite into but maybe even chew on ie own, for the next five years. ty. >> the dollar at it 12-year highs. the strong greenback sparking fears about profits of u.s. companies that do big business

overseas. we've got three stocks that are immune to the strong dollar, and as we head out, let's take a look at the nasdaq 100 stocks right now. deep in the red. looks like what about, oh, seven of them are positive on the day. e announcer ] your love for trading never stops. so open an account with schwab. and when a market move affects, say a cloud computing stock you're holding, we can help you decide what to do. with tools that help you see how market activity is affecting your positions. so when the time comes to decide whether to scale in or scale out... you can make your move wherever you are. and start working on your next big idea. ♪ ♪

>> take a look at shares of unite couldn't nemts. the stock is down 2% after the airline released an operations report that showed a 3% drop in trans-atlantic traffic for february compared to the same month last year. overall passenger traffic was unchanged in the load factor was higher, but that was due in part to a drop in capacity. on balance, though some of the traffic patterns tyler, maybe not showing very good signs of strength for united continental. back to you. >> although warmer temperatures may be welcome to many bostonians, it's bad news for their cars. look at that. record snowfalls built up tons of snow on top of buildings. it's melting now. it's forming giant icicles. what happens with those? they fall and cause damage to the cars below. look that the. ice chunks big enough to -- look at that man. wow. they fall off and hit the cars. they cross the roofs and break the windows. still, of course a tow truck is better than an ambulance. no one injured in these

incidents. >> incredible pictures. >> well, we're watching the major etf's, to track india. a new survey of economists show the industrial output slowed in january. according to the "wall street journal". industrial production, which includes the wrout put of factories, mines, and utilities likely rose .9% from a year ago which would be down from 1.7% growth and 3.9 in november. that key market moving data is coming out on thursday, and you can see there on the board that the etf's are down across the board for india. sdmrirchgts gold prices are also closing right now. falling to a three-month low in the face of that 12-year high in the dollar. currently sitting at 11 and 60. platinum at a near five-year low. jackie deangeles at the nymex. a lot of bearishness on gold. >> what's more interesting is that gold has been really beaten down lately. the shorts that were in this trade, they were certainly right. some people are taking profits. that's why there's not mosh downward pressure today as you mentioned that stronger dollar

typically does push gold lower. there is selling pressure across the board in the metals today. you're seeing it in silver. down almost 1%. you're seeing it in copper. down almost 2%. they think that it indicates what we're going to see in terms of global growth. they don't like the loss that is we've seen in copper as of late and as you mentioned, platinum and puladium. a lot of traders saying this dollar index is going up to 100. the metals will continue to suffer as a result of that. back to you. >> all right jackie. thank you. >> let's get a check on the bond market on the back of that three-year auction just minutes ago. rick santelli you gave it an a. what else is going on? >> you know we're down for sure. six basis points. we settle at 219. the ten-year yield there at 213. is it huge, and we're really fighting the grain once again. kind of hard to find the big buyers. if you look at an intraday boom you are right.

23 basis points. lowest in the history. maybe the rest of the curve is more than likely. the five-year and the euro zone minus 12 basis points. the seven-year minus four basis points. ponder that if you are a saver in europe right now. and we always look at the euro versus the dollar. it's ranking fresh lows going all the way back to around tax time 2003. here's one you don't look at enough. this is the euro versus the yen. it's also comped in april, but only april of 2013. zoom in on two years. why is this important? because you have a lot of weird dynamics going on between the japanese export economy and what's going in europe. both of those currencies are suffering against the dollar so this is an important way to pay attention to. back to you. >> we are paying attention. we are paying attention. well, trading can go. soaring dollar cause aing lot of headaches for investors. dominik, he is tracking the stocks with overseas exposure, and there's a lot of them. what percentage are we looking at here? >> there's a lot of them. it's under 10%, but a lot of

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. i'm sue herrera, and here's your cnbc news update for this hour. prescription drug spend issing up more than 13% from last year. according to express scripps, that's the biggest annual increase in more than a decade. the company says new and expensive specialty treatments for diabetes and cancer and hepatitis c fuel that jump. the university of oklahoma has now expelled two students accused of leading a racist chant as part of a fraternity event. the students have not been identified. yesterday the university severed ties with the sigma alpha epsilon fraternity and ordered its house closed. a group of attorneys swren has formed a coalition to crack down on fraud and quality control in the herbal supplement industry. connecticut, indiana, and puerto rico are joining new york's

attorney general in an investigation of that industry. currently supplement makers are not required to disclose to consumers or the fda information on safety or been fits of their products. >> look who showed up on the catwalk in paris. take a look. that's dare irn sfwloolander and has notsel too better known as ben stiller and -- >> they're wearing valentino, by the way, in case you are wondering, and they announced zoolander two, and it hits theaters in february of next year. fancy that. ty, back to you. >> the nasdaq down about a 1.25%. the dow industrials and the s&p 50000 off 1.25%. we begin with bob pos ani. bertha coombs uptown. bob, you're first. >> thank you, tyler. >> take a look at the s&p 500. biggest drop was right at the open. first 15 minutes. then we dropped again after the

european close around 12:30. just off the lows. not heavy at all today but odd volume. 85% of the volume of the new york stock exchange to the -- with only three stocks declining for every one advancing. speaks to the fact that there's a lot of high beta names getting some action here. including stocks in the technology group. that's leading to the down side. sectors financials are also weak because of a lower rate we've been seeing. strong dollar hurting materials. discretionary also home builders that are weak here. not retailers. if you look at the banks, you fwet some of the regional banks that have been weak throughout the day. this is a knee jerk reaction, though. by and large, these stocks have rallied since the beginning of february as rates longer term rates have actually rallied. not today, but that's been the trend.

>> woo been watching the biotechs. they started off as the biggest decliners this morning. biotechs often when the sentiment gets negative are the biggest movers. now we're positive here this afternoon. leading the way higher as we are watching the market come off of the lows. among some of the names that are doing well biogeneral, selgene, some of the biggest caps. all day we've seen some of the diet drug producers do very well today. acadia pharma which is one of the alzheimer's players. today is actually at a new high. we have a couple of stocks at a new high. urban outfitters one of them on the back of the better than expected earnings report. first time seeing a big -- invidea, and e-trade on a high. a lot more new lows. 82 of them here on the nasdaq.

wyn is a big decliner. hitting a new low. real concerns about the fact that you are seeing a slowdown in terms of gambling and mccow in china. also today being weighed down heavily on those concerns about less tourism in china. back to you. >> thank you so much. bertha coombs. the dollar index rising today. it has been almost a straight line up for the past we're. well that is bad news for american companies that do a big part of their business overseas. dominik is looking at those companies, and i just want to preface this, by the way, by saying that with currencies it's not the level that matters so much as the speed at which a currency rises or falls. this is the problem right now. it adds to this idea that you cannot plan or adjust yourself around those particular moves. that's the speed component to it. if you take a look at these

companies, there are a host of them. about 40 companies in the s&p. we picked out a few of them that you'll recognize here. ibm, for instance, again, 55% of their revenues according to fact set data comes from outside the united states. they could have some exposure on the revenue side. it's hard to edge revenues. profits and other things but it's hard to look at the revenue side of things. pfizer gets 62%. almost two-thirds of their sales outside the united states. wyn resorts almost three-quarters of it. again, a lot of that's mckoy. a lot of that's gaming or china. applied materials. they make the chip equipment that makes microchips. they get about 78% of their stuff in terms of sales outside the u.s. and then companies like philip morris the international sales component of the old philip morris altria. it's the cigarette label brand, and philip morris sells outside the u.s. these companies have a lot of their sales exposure there.

>> is he going to show periods where the stock market has risen when the dollar has been strong. destroy away. >> we've got -- >> we want to tell all sides of the story. brian is going to have that other side. we're going to present everything so the viewers you guys can make the judgment call on that. >> absolutely. thank you. thank you, dom. over to you, ty. >> housing now. how much will rising mortgage rates cut into the big home price gains we've been seeing? diana has that story live in washington. hi, dyi. >> hi ty. mortgage rates have been flirting with that emotional 4% line. then dipping back as they are today. while these moves might seem minute, they can have a huge

effect on what most home buyers can afford, and that then moves home prices. take a look. if you take the typical american family earning $60,000 a year they can afford about $1,800 a month on the mortgage payment. now, back in 2000 when rates were 8% that qualified them for a $245,000 loan. at 4% like today, they can get a $377,000 loan and all this calculated, by the way, thanks to john burns real estate consultant. that means that each 1% drop in rates allows sellers to raise their prices by 12%. rates are down from around 4.6% to now just under 4% on 30-year fixed. that's a 9% stimulus to home prices. the trouble in today's market though is not affording the monthly payment, but qualifying for the loan. without full documentation and good credit, borrowers are getting a big no and then the issue of supply comes back in. there's so little to buy and so much pent-up demand that home

prices are not always playing by the affordability rules while the bidders are wibing out and cash, while shrinking, is still, of course, king. if you want to see more on that chart, if you missed it it's on-line. tyler. >> diana, thank you. >> new any numbers out on agricultural moderateties. jane wells has the highlights live from l.a. hi, jane. >> hi ty. corn went positive for a time showing better than expected exports, meaning less corn. the usda says 50 million more bushels of u.s. corn will be exported than it thought a monthing with ash corn has come back down again. that's twice the boost that analysts expected. domestic production and consumption basically unchanged. a little more corn will go to feed livestock. a little less to make ethanol. overall, the new projected price has been raised a dime at the bottom to between $3.50 and $3.90. no $4 corn this year.

lots of beans mean lower prices. cattle prices shot up as production forecasts sfel again. that could start to turn around. now, the good news for consumers, mandy, the dollar is so strong that less u.s. beef will be exported meaning more at home more foreign beef will be imported meaning more beef totally, and that might, might bring down prices. back to you. >> okay. jane wells, thank you very much for that. well, a day after apple's big watch event, ceo tim cook is meeting with shareholders today. the stock today is down by 1.7% as it's currently sitting at $124.91. it's fallen a bit since the record high earlier on this year. above $133. i think since tim cook the ceo,

was named interim ceo and january 2011 the stock is up about 158%. swrosh lipton is at the shareholders meeting live. what are we expecting to come out of this josh? >> well mandy, actually that annual shareholders meeting just wrapped up. also executive compensation approved. tim cook basically called 2014 annen blooinl believable we're. he also talked about the 63 million ipads. now, ipads, we know have been a bit of a disappointment. at least for wall street. cook says listen he is committed to ipads. bullish on that product. talked a lot about his relationship with ibm to move more ipads into the intoer prize. in terms of themes today, mandy,

one issuing one was diversity. the reverend jess swrak was here speaking. he said tim cook deserved a hand for the work he has done in diversity, but called on apple and broadly silicon valley to do more. tim cook saying he is committed to diversity to equality. of course, we know apple just unveiled its $50 million initiative to spur on more diversity in tech. i would say the tone mandy, in general in that room very positive today. very complimentary. maybe no surprise. you have given that apple stock performed. you look at that in the past 12 months. up nearly 70%. a lot of pretty happy looking shareholders in that room today. finally, apple watch, i can tell you, that tim was wearing one. a simple one with just a white band. the reverend jesse jackson actually joked with tim cook that he hoped that maybe tim would model it for the odd wrens. mandy, back to you. >> before i let you go apple we know has been getting -- trying to get into the car space, and tim cook was repeatedly asked i believe, about tesla.

what did he have to say? >> he said maybe tesla would interested in adopting car play but that's as far as he would go with that. >> thank you so much. josh lipton. >> a terrifying collision between an amtrak commuter train and a tractor-trailer. the truck was trying to make a difficult left turn and became stuck on the track. the full story and video ahead on "power lunch."

at ally bank no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like shopping hungry equals overshopping. ♪ [upbeat music] ♪ defiance is in our bones. defiance never grows old. citracal maximum. easily absorbed calcium plus d. now in a new look. >> take a look at the new footage about the terrifying collision between an amtrak commuter train passenger train,

and a tractor-trailer. look at the impact there. north carolina highway patrol says the truck was trying to make it to a left turn and became stuck on the track. the incident, the third serious train crash involving passenger trains. look that the. in less than two months. manned where i. >> wow, look at that. >> the market is telling off today as we mark the 15th anniversary of the nasdaq's all-time high. can we expect a 5% pullback with this downturn? let's bring in jeff global chief investment officer at russell investments, and steve orth equity cio at fed rated investors. we've been talking about all the different factors behind today's drop. i'm not going to get into that per se but what i will ask you, jeff you first, is to what degree does this significant few maybe a bigger pullback than what we've had so far? i think we're about 3% off the highs. >> sure. we wouldn't be surprised by more than a 5% pullback at this point. we've been under weight u.s. equities within our global portfolios.

pretty much since december. we've talked about currencies profit margins, record highs. frankly, oil that has been a benefit, but that will start to drag on the corporate sector and a variety of other things that leave us slightly more bearish on equities relative to other parts of the market. specifically europe and some other developed economies going forward. >> steve, what about you? 5% to 10% pullback possible? >> we have been calling for what -- we're different than jeff mandy, that we certainly think we're going to end the year much higher in u.s. equities. we have a target for the s&p. we think the back half of the year will be pretty good. we've been thinking about a 5% to 10% correction off the levels. near term news flow not great on the u.s. between the dollar. oil we think is headed lower. we think the dollar is heading much higher against the your wroe. that will be taken as bad news. a lot of focus on the fed's next hike, which we think will be june. then the economic numbers were probably at a soft patch here

between the west coast strike and the winter vortex too and all that. the earnings numbers are probably going to be all that exciting either for q1. we think this is one of these years in the u.s. that's going to be pretty back half loaded. >> all right, jeff. let me jump in with a question here. some people are making the case that now is the time at least in your domestic allocations to emphasize companies that are not exposed revenue-wise or profit-wise to overseas and, therefore, are insulated just a bit from the dollar's move. do you buy that thesis? do you need to be in -- do you need to take cover, if you will in domestic focus stocks and avoid the multi-nationals right now, or not? >> i think at the margin that's a good strategy. we've been emphasizing a little bit more defensively oriented portfolios within our u.s. portfolios. we've been interested in banks despite rate rises. we've been interested in technology. a couple of areas that were

really deemphasizing are the yield oriented sectors like utilities and reets that have been bit up except for this year, obviously. utilities that come off the boil a bit. we are positioning portfolios for a rate rise for a little bit more defensive positioning. you know we don't have the 2350 target at year end. we have more like a 2150 target and that's kind of where we're at now. the september cement pretty bad. valuations are cheaper. the ecb can stimulate. be in europe and be a little bit defensive in the u.s. where the federal reserve will raise rates this year. >> certainly finding the central bank has been a losing battle if history is any guide. give us at least a few picks out there that perhaps look good at these levels.

>> we do think yields are heading considerably lower from here. maybe even touching 150 on the ten-year. we like the defenses here, but certainly if we do get the pullback, you're going to see us getting more aggressive again on the cyclical side because that's where there's real value in the market longer term and a lot of the stocks right now are pretty extended. >> okay. and last word to you, jeff. what picks are you looking at? >> we don't talk about name specific portfolios. right now i do think the average -- the average investor is under allocated nonu.s. stocks. we think it's a good play to look more global than the typical investors currently looking at portfolios. keep a diversified mix. manage through a little bit higher volatility in the year ahead. >> and that's quite a change jeff from years past where the international portion of anybody's portfolio, and i can speak personally to that point, it really has not performed

comparatively to the u.s. >> i love when you use words like mean reversion. it's great. >> thank you. >> you may have to wait a while for me. we're still -- the u.s. is still a place to be and i would be hedge iffed i was overseas, although i get you on the valuation argument, and those stocks, you know -- they're going to start playing catch-up but maybe next year. >> okay. once again, steve, you see maybe five to ten pullback and finishing the year with a bang. 2350 is your target for 2015. thank you very much, gentlemen. you can go to power lunch.cnbc.com and see jeff and steve's thoughts on when the fed will raise interest rates and what maybe you should be doing

now. that is power lunch.cnbc.com. >> sharsz of the united therapeutics is a focus. they're agreeing on the session. up by 2%. you can see negative earlier. the stock is turning positive for the day after the fd approved the company's drug -- one form of children's cancer. it's treatment for something called neuroblast olympica. a rare cancer that usually occurs in children under 5. >> the cia spent years hacking into apple devices. that's according to a new and controversial report. the details ahead in the second hour of power. can it make a dentist appointment when my teeth are ready? ♪ ♪ can it track my crew's performance, and protect their heads?

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pace of a dollar surge in the last six months is only the second fastest in 40 years. now, if you missed any of the big stories in the past hour you can go to our site at power lunch.cnbc.com. ty. >> a new report out today shows just how businesses faired with all the snow and harsh weather and kate roger has the details. hi, kate. >> hi tyler. >> that's right. we'll tell you just how hard old man winter hit some businesses in recent months coming up next on power lunch. [ male announcer ] your love for

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on deck more in the stock market's beg drop and why the strong dollar may not be a reason for it. plus an analyst with some rather dire predictions for oil companies if crude stays at these levels, and two small cap restaurant stocks that investors are hoping could become the next chipolte. hillary clinton speaking at the u.n., and we are awaiting the news conference from mrs. clinton about e-mails and her private e-mail server. a lot of you at the u.n. we are waiting to hear from milk milk about those e-mails as well, and we will take that live when she begins speaking. back to you. >> indeed. thank you vemp brian. looking forward to a new report out today showing just how

businesses faired with all that snow in recent months. kate rogers is here with that story. kate. >> that's right. they were hard hit. among the hardest hit was boston small businesses between january 26th and february 22nd. mom and pops in the region lost an average of 24% of their sales and saw payroll drops of 7%. this is according to a survey of 1600 businesses conduct the by the retailers association of massachusetts as well as some other groups. now, small retailers and restaurants, as you can imagine, were the hardest hit, losing nearly half of their sales and 14% of payrolls. a second report is out today from the national federation of independent business gauging main street optimism. the read is flat basically in line with january's numbers. after two strong months, though, of gains in november and december. the read may have even been higher had winter not been so rough, especially for those in the northeast. that's according to nfib's chief economy 'tis bill dunkleburg. the silver lining here though is that business owners with five million and under in annual

revenues did have a stronger 2014 with an average sales gain of more than 8%. that compares to gains of over 6% in 2013 according to stage works analytics. this means they may have had more of a cushion for harsh winter than in prior years, but it's important to remember that across the board sales losses of nearly 50% in places like boston not easily regained for mom and pops. >> you don't go out to dinner zoosh you can't walk down the street. you certainly can't go anywhere. >> you can't park in those cities. >> really stunning how hard they were hit. >> so if we take a look at history, where we've had such wruf winters like last winter, to what degree is there a rebound? to what degree is there in the months that come oof a? >> it's certainly case by case. that is saying they did have a stronger 2014 giving them more padding and cushion. it's so so important for them to be able to make a rebound and a comeback.

ae red day for the markets. keeping this track all the way to the close. >> the markets are stable at a low level right now. the s&p off 27. the dow -- there's the nasdaq off 62. the dow hanging in there about 250 points lower or thereabouts. over to you, brian. >> mandy and tyler and kate. thank you very much. it is 2:00 in morning. 11:00 a.m. in san diego. welcome to the second hour of power lunch. i'm brian sullivan. meltsa lee at the nasdaq. we've got stock picks galore coming up for you in this program. believe me, and maybe you can get them at a discount because stocks are selling off. the dow is down 256 points right now. let us go to bob pasani on the florida of the new york stock exchange where another day is in the red. >> it's been a lousy month of march. i think we haven't put together two up days in quite a while. the important thing about today, we had two legs down. take a look at the s&p 500.

sectors to the down side some of the high beta names have been notably week. financials are weak as we've had lower rates today. generally rates have been moving to the up side. material is a little weak on the strong dollar. discretionary, some of the home builders to the down side. we have been obsessed today with the dollar strength. it's sometimes amazing to me. i don't like telling the market what it should be doing, but we have been essentially rallying in the dollar for three years now since 2011. can you see that rocket in the last year for the dollar index that we've had. now at a 12-we're high and, yet, we're done with qe and the u.s. the rest of the world is dough basing their currency, and we're saying gosh we're surprised the dollar is so strong. people are questioning valuations with the strength of the dollar and rates still continuing to down size.

it has a 2.7% yeeshlgsd and that's only 50 basis points above where the ten-year yield is right now. that kind of fairly low yield, although attractive relative basis, is going to cause a lot of people to start questioning the valuations in the market. >> bob, i'm going to quickly jump in here because with all due respect to the very fine people in this very fine network, we have it coming up later on as to why this whole strong dollar bad for stocks thing, i think, is complete bunk, okay strong dollar has historically meant good news for stocks. we'll approve it with charts stats, graphs and a donkey maybe. >> i think the issue is the velocity of the ascent that's really a shock to the markets. >> there's plenty of ways. >> there's plenty of ways for u.s. corporations to sort of protect against that strong dollar. we're seeing a lot of people raise debt in euros now. a lot of u.s. corporations.

coke has done it recently. >> melissa has been all over the story on fast money, and we import so much more than we export. material providers, we build stuff for less. we're taenl fa seeing wage gains, and gasoline has put more money in consumers' pockets. if you are a consumer discretionary company and materials company, they're not complaining about the strong dollar. >> no they're not. all right, bob. thank you. >> we're also seeing of course a big drop for the nasdaq. it is down now by about 1.3%. let's bring in bertha who is literally downstairs. >> just down the stairs. you actually have to take the elevator to this florida floor. interestingly, it is the 15th anniversary of nasdaq 5,000. we are below 4,900 for the nasdaq composite, but if you look at the year-to-date performance, the nasdaq composite is still up for the year even as the dow and the s&p today dip into negative territory. the big reason why apple is still up some 12% to the year. we've watched the stock today

move down close to $124. seemed to have held that area. $125 is where it's trading right about right now. some folks may have thought maybe they hear something about apple's dividend special dividend this spring at today's shareholder meeting. likely we'll hear more about that when they return earnings and we get back into earnings season in april. if that's the main event, some investors are wablgt and they'll have to wait longer. overall, we're watching the big caps today get hit hard. the chips as a sector is one of the worst performing sectors, but some of the big retailers today. amazon which is often a momentum name is one of the biggest decliners. those are weighing right along with apple on the nasdaq 100. interestingly, we're seeing one of the big momentum sectors biotechs today as leading to the up side. it's been a nice reversal on the day if are you bullish to that sector and some of the momentum names are actually on the up

side now including tesla and gopro. back to you. >> all right. i'll take it from there. it's not just stocks that are down. oil is down yet again. in fact oil prices down $1.50 a barrel. you can see $1.46 to $48.54. the last half oil trading sends to be the most volatile. jackie deangeles joining us for the nymex. swraky, every time it seems like oil wants to go higher just whack it back down again over the last couple of weeks. >> that is right. you hit the nail on the head there. oil did want to go higher. at least appeared it did. it was taking those inventory numbers in stride but then the strength in the dollar particularly today really pushing us lower. wti trading at $48.61 as we head into the close. as you mentioned, this last 30 minutes really does tend to be the most volatile in terms of the negative sentiment over the last few weeks. we have to watch prices closely. a lot of traders are telling me they expect this dollar to continue to go higher from here. $100 dollar index is not out of the question. that could be potentially the

catalyst that breaks oil down at this point. we're looking at brent seeing very steep losses there as well. it is where we stand right now. the other bearish catalyst out there, you have opec really saying the chatter around it at least is that there will be no emergency meeting. there will be no production cut in june, and also the eia is upping the u.s. production forecast to 9.35 million barrels for this we're. when we talk about supply and demand, economics in terms of the oil situation, we know we're well replied. a rise in that supply is probably not what this market wants to hear. >> oil has been quiet latelily. that's of course until today. not the stocks. many of these stocks have been slammed. in fact, of all the names on our

screen, i track more than 60 mamz names, u.s. and canada based companies. there are a number of them. about 11 that are down double digits just this month, folks. that is fewer than seven complete trading days. names like northern oil and gas, roland companies, and comstock resources all down more than 10% or 20%? just six and a half trading days. there are others. you get the point. obviously we are below that level. credit can often drive equities. is the stock market in the stats that we just gave saying that some or all these companies are increasingly at risk of serious financial distress? >> yeah it's been three volatile months in the energy

space, and we have seen on the bond side of things we have seen things bottoming out maybe around early january or so. it was a bit of a bounce back in the last few weeks, and, you know what i think the important kind of part of this question is flee months ago people were saying where is this going? how deep the damage could be to the sector. there has been a lot of man hours put into understanding the sector in the last few months. the fact that so many of these bonds are still at distressed level that is we can talk about specifics later, and the fact that as you just mentioned, some of the equities have been brought down i think it just tells us that we are far from the finish line. >> does that mean that defaults are off the table, or could they still be possibilities? the photo that you released at the end -- you said one-third of u.s. energy b's and i triple-c's

would restructure under the scenario. $55 to $06 as a tipping point. have we seen that? do you still think that could be a possibility? >> sure. so what we are seeing so far is if you take the average of single b and triple-c energy bonds out there, you will find them trading anywhere between 1,000 to 1,200 basis points on average, and that basically is the levels that we consider to be distressed in a credit space. as i said the fact that three, four months into this story, we are seeing so many of these names trading at this these levels, that it's telling us that the market is expecting a lot of these names to be distressed. >> it's a serious topic you're talking serious stuff. you're trying to at least massage it a bit. i get that and respect that because there's a lot of financial reprecussions to what

you are saying. the bottom line is this. if i'm hearing you correctly, if we hang around these levels $6 $7 bowe mro your benchmark for a while, there are going to be companies that may not make it. >> absolutely. that's -- there is -- i think it's just a greater extent of understanding across the industries that is a possibility. the industry is going through winers and losers. we're seeing markets and credit space in the last few weeks, which is a very significant development because there will be a lot of companies who will make it through the cycle. there will be a lot of energy companies who will benefit from this cycle. at the same time, as i said so many of these bonds are trading at distressed levels, and it's kind of the market's way of saying the names will have tough times. >> it's a pleasure to see you again. thanks very much. >> take care. >> all right. the federal reserve green lighted all big banks on their first round last week.

the question now is are banks a buy going into the result of the -- in which the banks will find out if they can actually return capital. let's get to eric -- he says the fed is all clear and eliminated a big roadblock for the sector and gives it room to run in 2015. great to have you on power lunch. >> melissa, thanks for having me. >> is it as simple as to say that the yield curve is going to steepen and net interest margins are going to improve and therefore, banks across the board are a buy? >> yeah. i think there's a couple of things you can look at. look, i'm on the etf trading desk. we get to see a lot of institutional flow. there's been a lot of interest in financials recently. i think you look at the stress test. all 31 banks past the first round. i think you look at the nonfund pay roles. very strong leads to speculation that the fed is going to remove the word patience from their statement, and then on top of all that you have record fisher last night basically the last speech before he retires saying hey, we have to rays raise rates. raising rates, that's going to help banks considerably because most of their exposure is very

short duration cash floating rates. even at 25 50 bits bumped in fed funds is going to have an outsized impact on financials. a couple of ways you can play it. xlf, that's the state street financials etf. very electric weed. very popular. another one i like is kbwb. that's power shares. kbw bank. a little more focused on the money bank likes bank of america, wells fargo, et cetera. a couple of ways you can look at it, mount st. helens wra. sflu like sort of the larger too big to fail so to speak banks as opposed to going to the more regional banks. >> i think the money center banks that have you know large exposure to cash and large exposure to short duration are going to have you know -- going to get the greatest tail wind from even a tiny bump in fed funds. >> okay. we're going to leave it there. thank you. >> thanks melissa. >> more on which stocks could lead the way for the rest of 2015. john malloy wrote about that for cnbc pro.

can you find it on power lunch.cnbc.com. let us set the menu for the rest of the hour and nen use is the right word because we've got a restaurant stock analyst with some under the radar names. maybe some that could become the next chipolte. mrushgs with trust between washington and silicon valley already near low point, now there are reports from edward snowden that the cia has been trying to hack into apple devices. a dollar debate like you have never seen. should you be rooting for the dollar to get weaker or stronger? more "power lunch" two minutes.

at ally bank no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like mute buttons equal danger. ...that sound good? not being on this phone call sounds good. it's not muted. was that you jason? it was geoffrey! it was jason. it could've been brenda.

zimplt welcome back. just a reminder we are awaiting a hillary clinton news conference about her e-mails. this is a live shot of a poed wrum in the u.n. wrovl. an empty poed wrum. mrs. clinton is giving a speech right now as part of a panel on gender inequality and so you can see we are waiting for hillary clinton to have a press conference about her private emails, private server everything else that's been around the media firestorm for that. when it begins, we will give it to you live. one of the greatest stock moneymakers the past decade has been chipolte mexican grill. it has gone from $40 to more than $650 a share today. that's the past. are there any other small cap restaurant stocks now that may provide the same opportunity as cmg did ail the way back in 2006? well, we'll focus on to begin,

will zoe's kitchen and has been it habt. small stocks. do any of those have the potential based on your analysis and channel checks to grow into maybe not a chipolte but a long-term success story. >> i think both of them have a really good opportunity to grow into a long-term success story. you have 130 brunh its. you have multiple years in front of you growing at 20% plus. you know they are really on trend in terms of healthier eating higher quality food better customer service. just an overall better experience and a great platform in terms of catering and offerings of sales. it's very well positioned. as far as the has been it goes a report after they close, they're one that in my opinion can set up next to really any qsr burgtory take market share over the next you maim it number of years. it's a higher quality product in my opinion. better service at a similar

price point. it's difficult going into earnings here. >> let's go tie bigger name, and that is wendy's. that's been interesting because you have seen mcdonald's founder. is wendy's picking up mcdobld's lost share because somebody is. >> they've been picking up some for sure. we've seen burger king pick up more on the value end, but i think wendy's, they've done such a great job of really going back to what they're very good at it and that's fresh north american beef where their focus has always been and innovating around that. we saw the pretzel bun last year. we saw that bacon and brioche recently launched. it's the innovative burger category where they want to be. i think as they continue to focus on that the consumer is

appreciating that sort of backwards root mentality. be good at what you do as opposed to everything to everyone. that continues to win for wendy's. will,ates pleasure to have you on. thank you. >> thank you. >> the dow down 280 points. could this be the big pullback we've been fearing? we'll dive into that. plus, one analyst takes a brave stance on lumber liquid azors. it's down 50%. street talk on its way. stay tuned.

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>> we are awaiting ahill hillary rodham clinton news conference about her e-mails, about her personal server. that is a live shot of the united nations where she has been on a -- regarding gender inequality. as soon as she begins speaking at the podium, we will bring that to you live. right now, though it is time for something very different than that. street talk. we do it every day. five stocks. five analyst calls that we dug out just for you. are you ready? >> ready always. >> let's do this. first up, linkdn. about 10% up side from here.

melissa, they love the move more into the advertising market for linkdn. it's business to business advertising market and it's said to deliver 5,000 advertisers on 2,500 sites. that's pretty amazing numbers there. next up here at lumber liquidators, making a big move. the stock has seen a lot of volatility since it reported earnings and since the "60 minutes" report. it's up 8%. raymond james isn't. changing price targets or ratings or anything like that. they're simply pointing out that lumber liquidators will have a call on march 12th. on that call they could elan rate on guide i can't bes and financial impact. raymond james, by the way, also submitted two samples to one of the third party certifiers, and those results will be out in two we cans. >> the only ones that will know how sales are is lumber liquidators themselves. they're out and they're saying stay on the sideline with the stock, and they add that the media exposure will "clearly have an impact on near term business if not longer." stock numbers three, spring leaf holdings.

consumer finance and credit company based in indiana. bank of america, merrill lynch upgrading to a buy. their target 62. about 30% up side. seeing the average target is lower just about 55 a share. keep that in mind. >> bank of america, this is really a case of we got this call wrong because the stock has been a clear outperformer. it's been a double since its ipo a year and a half ago, and just last week announcing it's going to buy city's 1a financials. huge stock here. our next stoblg wells fargo. hits a nice run. switched to underperformers like bank of america and jp morgan zoosh you lou in one of the world's biggest banks of the sfort stock on street talk. that's confidence. >> the average rating is hold on wells fargo. do you need 29 analyst calls on wells faring wroe? >> apparently you do. >> apparently you do.

there are 29 analysts. all right. today is stock number five. always the under the radar name. wicks.com. adds for it. israeli-based web developer. starting coverage of the buy rating. target $26. about 40% up side. the average target is higher at $28 a share. >> speaking of confidence this one has been a dismal performer year-to-date. it is down 15%. >> had to throw that in there, didn't you? isn't fair. that's it for "street talk" on this tuesday. meantime apple's big product announcement failed to excite investors. apple stock down again today. of course, the entire market is down again today. we'll go live to apple's big shareholder meeting. speaking of apple, reports of cia has been trying for years to crack the security code on the iphone. we're going to bring you more on that fascinating story, and we are just a few minutes away from the oil close. oil is down more than $1 a barrel. how much will oil fall or rise

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zarchlgts i'm sue herrera, and here's your cnbc news update. duke energy has agreed pay share shoaleders about $146 million to settle a lawsuit. that's tha suit accused duke and several directors in planning in secret to overthrow then ceo bill johnson triggering a drop in the company's stock price. burger king dropping soft drinks from its kids meals. the company said it made the hang to offer customers opings that match lifestyle needs. the b.k. menu for kids will offer fat free milk, apple juice, or low fat chocolate milk. meanwhile, new data shows small business optimism rose less than expected in february. the nfib small business index increased to 98 last month, but it was expected to inch up to 99.2. starbucks expanding its mobile ordering app next week you'll be able to order ahead and skip the lines at starbucks in washington, idaho, and alaska as well as oregon. the company hopes the app will be coast-to-coast by the end of

the we're. you're up-to-date. back to you. meanwhile, oil about ready to closes for the day. swraky deangeles looks like it is going to close once again lower. we saw another half a percent decline. we're going to close around 4840 at this point. the stronger dollar certainly part of the story today. production keeps increasing and that's another part of it. probably not going to cut production any time soon. it's a piece of it as well. this was a raid that was bouncing around $50 looking for a catalyst to go lower, and the dollar really was it. if you recall back in 2009 when we saw oil prices go from over $140 a barrel down to the low 30s, the dollar index was a big part of that. we did see dollar strength. this is something to watch certainly in the coming days as we look at those down side targets. it's interesting because this

could potentially be the bottom. if we get a close under $48 in the near future they become sellers again. >> you know swraky i'm just looking here on my screen. i have about 50 or 60 companies here and in canned where. there are two stocks two, that are up monday and tuesday. sandridge energy 1.2%. the other one is whiting, which numerous reports have said it's putting itself up for sale. really taking that extra out. you have one oil stock at a 50 which is up in the last two days. >> it's interesting. i was just having this conversation with someone saying the canadians really are getting squeezed. yes, some of the shale producers are having a hard time but you hit the nail on the head. the can aidians will have more difficulty with this. first, there will be a domino effect if it really plays out. it's going to mitigate it a little bit, but not enough. thank you very much. >> sure. >> until today oil has been trying to hold steady at $50 a barrel. oil stocks are down.

are there bargains in the oil patch? i gave you a clue as to part of our weekly and my weekly cnbc pro column. call it new ideas. you can find it at power lunch.cnbc.com. it's a cnbc pro product. go through facts and stats. the markets are just off of session lows. a recent pullback to see if we're ready for a fall. dom. >> well we could be ready for a fall and we've already got the startings of it right now, but if if this plays out like it has over the past year it may not be that deep. here's the reason where. we take a look at all the pullbacks. we have five over the course of the past 12 months. back at around april with the market drop by about 4%. that's the s&p 500. you go back to the next one here, again, it's 4% pullback as

wrl. you saw maybe around late july into august a pillback, and then a slightly larger one in the fall. 4% 4% 7% and then you go towards the latter part of the year in december. a 5% drop there, and then a 5% drop at the end of the year going into the beginning part of this one. a 4% drop. a 4% drop. a 7% drop. then two fives. on average we're talking about a 5% pullback before we hit record highs again. that's over the past 12 months. if this were to become here a 5% pullback, you could expect to see the s&p 500 if go down towards the 2011 level. that's where some traders are eyeing maybe some support, but, again, if brian we have a 5% pullback, which is the average over the past 12 months 2011 is the target that some traders are watching. back to you. >> great stuff as always. dom, thank you very much. well apple stock down again today after initial excitement about yesterday's watch announcement, medical

announcement, et cetera. we're off just a bit. well, today is the big shareholders meeting in cuppertino california. josh lipton wouldn't miss it. what's being said? what's happening? >> >>. >> it was really time for ceo tim cook to take a victory lap. stock might be down today, but as you know, the stock has been a monster. it's up about 13% this year. up some 65% over the past 12 months. cook calling 2014 an unbelievable year. he said he is pleased with apple pay. we've seen the headlines, brian, and i know you have touched on it suggesting a growing raft fraud regarding apple pay. you know my sources tell me some of the language is really in their words misleading.

that debate seems to continue. for partnerships, though cook also bringing up this new deal with hbo. that was just announced at the watch event. that hbo streaming service coming exclusively to apple. in other words, if are you a fan of game of thrones, you're going to be able to watch that on apple tv on your iphone ipad. cook suggesting that's really the future of media consumption that as he said consumers want to watch content where and when they want it. just as interesting was the partnerships he wouldn't get into. for example, shareholders, i can tell you they were really pushing him today on tesla. some of them asking, you know why not just buy tesla? cook laughed off those suggestions and said listen apple doesn't have a relationship with tesla. when it comes to the call we're focused on car play. that's their in car technology. he suggested maybe elan musk wants to use car play in his own cars, and that's where he would end any speculation there. guys, back to you. >> all right. thank you very much swrosh lipton. meantime, new reports this morning saying that the cia may have been working for years to

crack the security protecting i phones and ipads. eamon with more on that story where are. >> the report comes in the intercept. that's the website that was co-founded by glen greenwald, and they're citing edward snowden documents. this is one of the stories where we do don't have access to edward snowden documents. we can't confirm what the intercept is reporting this morning, but according to their reports, the cia, the u.s. intelligence community have spent years trying to develop back door access into the apple iphone ipad and other apple technologies all with an eye towards being able to insert malware in order to track people and get access to the date wra that's held on those mobile devices. that's a story that's getting a lot of attention here in washington and out in silicon valley today, and i can tell you that i talked to a u.s. intelligence official about this story. earlier today. here's what the u.s. intelligence official told me about this story. that's what we do. cia collects information wroefr

seas, and this is focused on our adversaries, whether they be terrorists or other adversaries. i can tell you, brian, i also spoke to a senior administration official who would neither confirm nor deny the allegations, and the documents cited by the intercept today. interesting issues of privacy and technology raised by this reporting, and the u.s. intelligence official saying flatly that's what we do. >> eamon, it was a pleasure. thank you very much bud yu. interesting story there. coming up again, we are waiting, mount st. helens yashgs on hillary clinton's press conference around the e-mail and e-mail servers. she was sort of semi-scheduled to talk right about now, so i guess when we get, it we will bring it to our viewers live. >> of course we will. meantime verizon shares falling after more wireless service cancellations. the cancellations are due to intensifying competition from other wireless phone carriers. in 2014 the major carriers made more than 90 pricing changes compared to only 20 the year before. with us now is amir director at

barclay and hes telecom analyst. this seems like it would be great news for the consumer but who is verizon losing out to? >> certainly. as you mentioned, you know it's a highly competitive environment, and, you know the way we're looking at things is t mobile and sprint have been shaking things up. you know in the marketplace with more aggressive promotion plans. i think that verizon has certainly focused its efforts on the high-end enter prides and the high-end consumer and pulled back some of the promotional activities in the market place that we clearly all saw were pretty heightened levels during the holiday selling season. >> it sounds like spribt and t mobile are gaining hair, but at what cost? >> it's a great question. in terms of sprint and t mobile there are two different horses running two different races. with respect to t mobile they continue to drive pretty good subscriber growth, and if you look at the fourth quarter result they continue to expand margin which is actually unique in terms of the overall telecom space.

>> you like t mobile as well as the towers? >> correct, correct. right now t mobile is a unique share game margin expansion story within the u.s. telecom space. that's clearly a good focus. more competition means more data traffic. more data traffic means you have to invest more in the networks that's what the stories take cia. >> what impact if at all did the apple watch have or wearables for that matter? presumably this will peak consumer interest in wearables and if they do have wearables, could that be a good thing for some of the telecoms? >> yes. that could be a good thing in terms of building additional revenue streams for the telecoms. we would caution that, you know, a lot of this type of traffic is typically risky and doesn't necessarily provide longer term sort of sessions but, you know when you start to think about the halo effect of apple's i watch and people being able to use their smartphones more their tablets more and just being engageed in an overall service revenue perspective, that's great.

every for the telecoms. >> brian, over to you. >> melissa and amile an hour thank you very much. >> the dow down 283 points. it's about 1.5%. the nasdaq. the s&p are down. oil closing below $49. there's a lot going on today, folks. of course, we keep hearing that the strong dollar is a big part of the problem, but is it? we've got some charts and some stats that may make you think twice about the relationship between the dollar and stocks. at least long-term. and who else better to join us than mr. king dollar himself. that is him. s larry kudlow who will join us with power lunch coming up. stick around.

welcome back to cnbc. reminder once again that we are watching the united nations because that is the podium where hillary clinton is expected to speak soon on her personal e-mail and server situation. the moment that she does walk out, we will take that for you live. a rising dollar can help or hurt u.s. companies depending on where they do most of their business. dominik is here now with a look at some of the companies that might benefit from a stronger dollar. >> they are insulated, right some they get so much of their business here in the united states. all of them s&p capital iq says

that 86 companies in the s&p 500 actually get every single dime of their revenues right here at home in the united states. first of all aircraft home builder makes sense. they build homes in the u.s. lennar gets all of its sales here in the u.s. also, in order strom on the retail side their stores all across america 100% of their revenues right here at home. autonation selling cars the car business, they get 100% of their revenues at home. kroger, one of the biggest -- one of the biggest grocery store chains out there, it gets all of its sales here and then of course the telecom companies like verizon and at&t both of those guys get all thifr revenues here's. when some investors are looking for this dollar trade about people who may not have as much exposure to the strength of the u.s. dollar check out some of the guys here that don't have to worry about foreign exchange translation issues when it comes

to their revenues and profits. guys, back to you. >> thank you very much. well one reason being given for a weaker stock market overall today is of course that stronger dollar. we have heard it a lot today. even on this fine network. history suggests oidz. look at the 20-year chart we made of the dollar index and the s&p 50000. you can see mostly together schwab research shows going back to the late 1970s stocks tend to perform twice as well in dollar bull markets as they do in dollar bear markets. sarah eisen who will apparently tell us why we're completion wrong, joining us from the new york stock exchange as well. got melissa there. larry. what say you? strong dollar good or bad for u.s. equities? >> i think it's terrific. i this you did your homework. i think dom did good homework. i think schwab did good homework on this. here's one way to look at it. when you are located at home or

overseas, whether you do most of your business dmregsicily or internationally, a stronger dollar means your whole cost structure goes down. i don't care what you do. commodities are lower. labor costs are lower. interest rates are lower. i hate it when these companies that don't execute. i won't mention any industrial names to blame the dollar for their lousy performance. isn't apple a multi-national company? aren't they knocking the cover off the ball? what about google? what about facebook? in other words techies show that that's not correct. stocks did great and the economy did great. if you got good currency global capital comes in to your markets. >> sarah eisen begs to differ. >> if the dollar is going up steadily and in an orderly fashion, yes, it can attract

capital to the united states and can be very good for the stock market as your chart historically shows. what the chart doesn't show is the speed and the scope of this move that we have seen. in fact, over the last six months this is the fastest appreciation of the u.s. dollar looking across a number of currencies on a trade weighted basis. second fastest in the last 40 years. the fastest was during the financial crisis when everyone was pouring into the u.s. as a safe haven currency. there's no crisis right now. they're pouring into the u.s. yes, because our economy is outperforming, and also because everybody else in the world is easing on economic weakness and fighting deflation is pumping money into their economies and quantity takive easing and, therefore, it's a double whammy powerful move. >> i agree with sarah. >>

>>. >> the tomb bottom in the dollar was 2011 and we've had a fabulous stock market rally since then. the speed -- you know you're right. if the dollar spikes up from here 20% in the next three weeks, it will probably cause disruption. i do not believe that's going to happen, by the way. and i think the united states -- sfroo we've already had a 20% increase in the dollar. >> that's right. >> larry, this kind of move in the dixi 1% in one day, that is different this time around. that is what is different. >> guys i anticipate -- only because -- >> you cannot -- don't -- go back to sully's point when you look at whole deck i had. that's the way economists have to -- >> i'll say this. the spoke investigate group which i anticipated the rapidity

market looked -- great job by paul and his team. went back and looked at the few. there were to sarah's point. very few other times when the dollar has moved this much this quickly. but, guys do we have that graphic? when the dollar has moved 20% in less than a year, the average s&p return is 14%. >> whatever they're making overseas, it's cheaper. commodities and labor, for example, it's all cheaper. now, at home consumers, it's all cheaper. that includes energy, and that includes commodities. that's why i'm -- i'll be honest with you. there's another problem. profits are slipping because of the lack of productivity. i just looked this morning.

s&p 500 operating earnings per share. okay? down 5% fourth quarter. it was up 10% in the third quarter. take a look at the productivity numbers. what's going on is costs are faster than prices because of the absence of productivity. now, i am worried, at least in the short run, that there's a profits correction going on which may be unsettling to the markets. >> so you can -- so larry basically you say that yes, it's positive -- stronger dollar is positive but it may not be enough of a tailwind to offset some of the other declines in things like operating earnings. >> i think that's right. i think unit labor costs, which is the biggest cost for companies, because of flat productivity, all right, unit labor costs are slower than business prices. you can't make money that way. and people are also marking down future earnings. i suspect they're going too far because we are in the going into recession. >> those flags that we are looking at inside a u.n. hallway

would probably cost less now because of the weaker u.s. dollar. >> sara eisen, can you at least tell us why the dollar has made this kind of move? whatever happens with stocks? what's going on with the dollar itself. >> you have two things going on. you've got strength in the u.s. economy, and that was just super charged and reinforced by a strong jobs number on friday with the unemployment rate down to 5.5% reinforcing the view and the federal reserve has hinted at this that it's going to raise interest rates as soon as this year that causes dollar buying. at the very same time the european central bank launches quantitative easing flooding the economy with euros and a lot of emerging markets are easing which leads their currencies to sell off. you have this one-two punch and that's the problem. the backdrop is strategists don't see that changing any time soon. they're taking down their forecasts and selling stocks because profits in s&p 500 while

larry is right about the positive impact over time right now are getting slammed by this. if you have business overseas. you have seen it in the last earnings quarter. >> i don't agree. i just give you the apple example. >> proctor & gamble microsoft, a number of companies. >> if they're not executing -- this is tailor made for profits. again, go back into the '80s and '90s and take a look at the strong profits as a result and in relation to a strong dollar. >> no you're right. >> right. and you can't look -- >> larry -- >> the other point -- >> we are an importing nation. we build stuff, it's cheaper to bring it in here. we have low gas prices. the consumer has a little more money. sara is right there are specific examples you could point to and say, yeah you buy your stu here, it's more expensive and then you have the currency conversion, you're in trouble but we're talking about the macro -- >> it's all cheaper to buy. one word on this, i agree with sara american economic growth is outstripping foreign economic

growth in the main and i think that you've got a real exchange rate real interest rate play here but i'm also -- look profits are the mother's milk of stocks and i don't know why this is exactly, but if our productivity remains flat to down that hurts profits. it's not the dollar that bothers me it's productivity. >> melissa, we have to go. but mother's milk also the red hot chili peppers finest album. great discussion of the dollar. melissa, obviously you're there. larry, before we go we are awaiting hillary clinton speaking on her e-mail situation. switch gears a political bit here. what do you want to hear from hillary clinton about the situation? >> i want to hear why. i want to hear why she do it all on a homemade server. i want to hear why she compromised national security classified information. i want to hear why she violated white house rules and her own state department rules. miss clinton fired the ambassador to kenya because he used internal e-mails, personal

e-mails. she fired him for the stuff she did. i don't get that. what is she hiding? what was her logic? i'm willing to be open. i want to hear what she has to say but i think she has a lot of explaining to do. it doesn't make any sense why this happened. >> do you think this damages her chances of 2016 or is it something that will cause a furor and will blow over? it's a long way. >> here is the thing, i can't predict. i'm not accusing her of any illegalities. i'm accusing her of bad judgment. now, on your question, she's got to get through march of 2015 and april of 2015. in other words 2016 argument is so far out. >> i know but does the fact it is far out -- >> it may hurt her. >> or help. why not help her. if it's so far away our memories are short. >> democratic party grassroots now is agitating for other candidates. this is something she hasn't had to put up with much. this is going to open that door

for her. she's in a bear market right now. she's had a ruff winter. she's got the clinton foundation international money to explain. she's going to have this e-mail stuff to explain. she's in a bear market and she's going to have to take some -- she needs to lower her own personal tax rate. that's the only way she's going to get out of here. >> cnbc senior contributor, larry kudlow. appreciate it. great discussion of the dollar and everything else. as you can see we are awaiting that press conference. really america, parts of the world waiting to hear from hillary clinton herself about why she used personal e-mail and a personal server in her home. we are waiting and as soon as she steps out, we will bring that to you live. just a reminder we'll go to a quick break, oil closing down 3%. the dow is down nearly 300 points. the dollar is up. big part of the story. don't go anywhere. we have an hour left of trading give or take. we're back with the markets, with hillary clinton, with everything. stick around.

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private sector standing shoulder to shoulder with advocates who have worked tirelessly for equality for decades. 20 years ago this was a lonelier struggle. today we mark the progress that has been made in the two decades since the international community gathered in beijing and declared with one voice that human rights are women's rights and women's rights are human rights. and because of advances in health, education, and legal protections, we can say that there has never been a better time in history to be born female. yet as the comprehensive new report published by the clinton foundation and the gates foundation this week makes clear, despite all this progress, when it comes to the full participation of women and girls, we're just not there yet. as i said today, this remains the great unfinished business of the 21st century. and my passion for this fight

burns as brightly today as it did 20 years ago. i want to comment on a matter in the news today regarding iran. the president and his team are in the midst of intense negotiations. their goal is a diplomatic solution that would close off iran's pathways to a nuclear bomb and give us unprecedented access and insight into iran's nuclear program. now, reasonable people can disagree about what exactly it will take to accomplish this objective, and we all must judge any final agreement on its merits, but the recent letter from republican senators was out of step with the best traditions of american leadership, and one has to ask what was the purpose of