bell." "fast money" coming up in moments. >> pi day. it's a huge day. i'm look forward to it. why one trade on this desk sold apple. >> oh, sold apple? interesting. >> out. gone. nothing. no position. >> does it have to do with the apple watch? >> i don't know. find out. >> we'll find out. over to you guys. >> "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq marketsite overlooking new york city's times square. i'm melissa lee. our traders tonight are tim seymour, steve grasso, brian kelly, and guy adami. here's what's coming up on "fast." bailing on apple for now. one of our traders dropping the stock from his portfolio. he will explain why coming up. and while many investors are focusing on europe there's some under the radar action in south america that you should be watching. we'll tell you what it is and how to play it. we start out with a big move in the markets today. stocks coming back after a big sell-off spurred by the stronger dollar and falling oil prices. now the street is looking to see what the federal reserve will do next week. now, a lot has changed since the last meeting started on january 27th. the s&p and oil around the same levels but the dollar is up 6%

against the euro since then. ten-year treasury yield has jumped to 2.1%. it was 1.8 in january. guy adami, the world has changed. >> that's the most important thing right there. you just mentioned yields. i would have thought if you'd said what's going to happen in the s&p today big sell-off, what's going to happen in bonds, i would have thought the tlt would have rallied a point and a half. i think it close aid tad lower on the day. that surprises me. i think it comes down to the language they used next week. i still think rates are headed lower. if i believe that maybe the dollar does a little bit of an about-face next week. i'm not sure. but i still think given everything we're seeing especially the move in crude oil we're in an inflationary environment, rates go down. >> beaks. >> i'm still in the camp that rates go lower. i think when you look at next week there's a risk that this long dollar trade reverses. yesterday i sold some. if you take a look at the euro and the positioning in the euro, if you would look at what we call short interest, whether or

not people are short the futures, you can see large speculators are the most short they have been since back in 2012. what happened then is you had a big rally in the euro. as we go into the fomc you have the risk that if they take out patience they start to focus on inflation. i think if you hear anything about inflation next week in the fomc then you see this euro rally. >> and the euro, euro parity has become consensus at this point. and when things become consensus, that's the time when you say you know what? maybe i shouldn't be there anymore. when goldman sachs says in six months we'll see dollar-euro parity. >> it's amazing how people at .9 by the end of 2016 i saw a couple guys. i'll take some on the face of that. i thought the euro was going to hold 1.06. i thought actually 1.08 was the level it would hold. and then 1.06 behind it and technically these are important levels. i think the differenttials, i said this to you on "power lunch" which is what's happening now what's going on with interest rates too is interest rates are so compressed and there's no real divergence and we're not seeing this -- any real difference in interest rate policy. sought currencies are how you

carry out monetary transmission. why are we seeing such major currency moves. i think the ecb is different than where we were. i don't think the fed can do anything tomorrow. and i think based upon how the market's reacting i wonder whether the fed can do anything in june. >> i think you're going to see more of the same. higher dollar, you're going to see lower oil, lower euro. to b.k.'s point the trade has been so overdone, quote unquote, that you could see some days when it takes a day off. but i think those are the mako themes and nothing's going to change in that. >> it's interesting to see what turned around within the markets. energy stocks turn around in the markets. financials turn around. take a look at microsoft finishing higher by .9 on the day. also intel trading higher by .4 on the day. >> intel trading higher, remember it got whacked yesterday as well. >> of course. >> so maybe a little relief rally. microsoft probably the same type of thing. right or wrong? >> yes. >> i think the banks are just a function of the fact that the stress test went through, we had c cargo through. some catch-up there. i still think there are some interesting bank plays. i still think goldman sachs moves higher but i wouldn't read

too much into specifically the intel and the microsoft move today. >> but energy stocks. refiners had a strong day. >> also the fact that the 5 million barrels' worth of oil is going to be put into the sbr. so that's probably a temporary sugar high. and refiners are doing well in this particular area. although oil still is very challenged. i mean, there is still a drop in demand for oil. an awful lot of supply. even though we've seen the rig count come down, this is similar to natural gas where we had that overproduction, everybody thought rig count was going to come down, we'd shut down production, natural gas would spike higher. it never did because everybody has those hedges on higher. >> let's get to the turn of the day. grasso's made his way to the smartboard. taking a look at levels on the s&p 500. grasso. >> if you want to look at this longer-term chart, it's a year chart of the s&p. when people were hoping for ksh i should say when bears were hoping for a head and shoulders setup in the s&p, this was the left shoulder, this was the head. you wanted to see a little bit of a break above this 2077 mark

to get to maybe 2080s or so. once we got to this level and broke above the head, the head and shoulders was off the table again. then you start to look at what's called an overshoot. you take the 2093, you look at the recent low of 1980 right here, and you get an overshoot fibonacci level of 2120 in the s&p. that's exactly where we stopped. so if you're looking for that sell-off, which we've had already, about 5% of that move, here's the 100 day. 50-day we closed right between the 50 and 100. the big levels you want to be aware of right here which we closed above and where we're going for the bears is this level, which is the 200-day. that would shock the market the most. people are so unexpectedly -- unexpected to find this level lower in the market this would screw up the market the most at any given point. >> 50 points below where we are now, quite dramatic. >> how in the last few days when

people started to digest, say, intel and the effect that first of all the dollar doesn't move like this unless you have a financial crisis or you're going to have major e.p. as headwinds. so how has the tone changed? i think the bottom of the channel's probably closer to 1,900 if you're looking at where we've come since this rally began. i think the 200-day we've basically danced near. the next move is through that. i think if corporates start to warn here how can you avoid that? >> i agree with you. i actually think we're going lower than that. but this is the starting point. this is where guys assess and reassess. but the level i had, timmy, to your point is 1907. that brings us down to that full retracement and now we start to go down 10% from the most recent high. >> another level we are watching, how low oil prices could fall before finding a bottom. tom closa of the oil price information service has been pretty spot on so far. >> i think we drift lower in the short term and then drift much lower after labor day.

>> we are looking at an oversupply in 2015. >> oh, yeah, we could see 45. we could see 45 this month. >> we haven't found a bottom yet. >> tom kloza joins us on the fast line with his latest take on oil. you made a number of good calls. do you agree with the eia -- or iea i should say essentially that this correction in the market hasn't run its course yet? >> yeah, i would agree with that. and i think gls had oldman sacht perfectly today. a cold winter that pushed up the band almost like a sugar rush. but also the fact that oil is so much more expensive down the road that there was demand for hoarding. there was a reward for hoarding. when that runs its course, and i think it runs its course in the next 45 or 60 days, we could see much lower prices briefly. >> so what is the much lower level you're talking about and what is the catalyst for those much lower prices? is this a catalyst or is it going to be a gradual decline? is it the fact that perhaps

we're running out of storage here and that's going to drive prices lower? >> there are about half a dozen catalysts. you've talked about the dollar. the guests have talked about the dollar. the dollar hurts oil demand in some emerging markets. we're in the shoulder season right now so, we don't have winter demand, and it's much too soon for the driving season. and refiners -- people were talking about a strike. i thought it was a very specious reason for gasoline prices to go up and drag crude with them. and that looks like it will be settled. most everything points lower. i think five months from now it will be cleared up. but the next five months it will be very challenging. >> guys i speak with are worried about the possible iran deal. right now iran exports about a million barrels per day. they're saying that could increase to an additional 500,000 or $600,000 a day. on top of what melissa talked about full storage these are things we're worried about sooner rather than later.

>> there's additional risk to that but i think it's pretty small risk. when you look at if and game it for this year you figure we're not going to get more iranian oil. we will get more from northern iraq. they had weather problems and we will get more from there. and the problem is we can't get more help for hire prices from libya because they're as dysfunctional as can be at the moment. >> button us for us. give us a level and a date. >> i think expiration date for the contracts in the next few months will be the time where you can have a $30 and change handle. but i also believe that prices will firm up and if you're investing for five years it's a good investment. we'll be back in the 60s and 70s next year and beyond. >> tom, great to have you with us. thank you for calling in. tom. kloza. what do you think? we're "fast money," not five years. >> no. five years i'm 68 years old i think. >> you're retired. >> ovx to me has been elevated for a while. spent most of 2014 below 20.

obviously we're still in the 50s here. one of the things i said for a while is as long as this thing stays elevated the ovx i think crude's been challenged. we do make another leg down. refiners still work. i think beaks mentioned that earlier. you can still make money there. >> we're back in a place where the integrateds look good. i'd go to the continent and take total because of the euro weakness and the dividend yield there. but as tom said, this is going to be brief and next year you're back up at prices. this is good long-term play. >> a big opposition rally planned for tomorrow in brazil. tim's going to break downtown under the radar moves in south america and how to play them. and apple shares down more than 2% this week. one of our traders is bailing on the stock, find out why after the break. after the break alibaba's lockout expiration. 400 million shares could hit the market. we'll tell you how to play it coming up on "fast."

let's get some under the radar moves in bras. petrobras under pressure as a probe into an alleged kickback scheme surrounding the state-run oil company widens. ambassador says brazil could be the next paintree. >> it's been a pain trade. and i would argue that brazil's

one of these places a lot of people have looked to over the last three or four years saying it was different in the e.m. context. everybody knows it. china has suffered as well as brazil. everybody knows the value and pet roh bras have been two of the worst investments you could make over five years. now the scandal. people think it could draw in dilma the president of the brazil. this weekend or the past couple days we've started to learn some major governors, the governor of the rio state some other major people that are part of the ruling party. so what happens here? first of all, there's going to be a protest this weekend where a lot of people think it will lead to headlines that will be ugly. i think you could walk in on monday and see a lot more pressure on the real. if you look at the real we're basically at all-time lows. it's been the worst performing in a very difficult class of emerging market currencies. what do i do here? first of all i look at petrobras and i think there's two things this company has to do. they have to cut capex down to probably $20 billion, they have to start selling off significant assets, and then you hope that there's been an arrest of this corruption. i think below $35 there's value in petrobras. i own it here and i think it's

worth starting to play. but if i look at brazil overall i like to own the banks because i think they are really the place where you've actually priced in a lot of bad news and they are the strongest institutions there. >> we're showing a chart of the u.s. versus real. this is another pain point in terms of currencies. i think a lot of other people are looking at that. today we have this note from sandler cutting mastercard estimates for the full year by ten cents because of the euro but also because of the real. >> right. this is not -- it's not just brazil. we're talking about turkey. we're even talking about china. anywhere you look outside the u.s. you're talking about these massive currency moves which have huge ramifications. now, when it comes to brazil in particular i've actually been short ewz. i wasn't short because i thought there was going to be a crisis like this. i got short probably about four or five months ago i think it was because as the money comes from the outside to the inside or back to the u.s. the emerging markets get hurt. now, i kind of agree with tim, though. i think a lot's been priced in here. we're starting to reach the point of maximum fear.

so i would think over the next week or so b.k. might be covering this short. >> now to apple. take a look at this stock. down nearly 3.6% since monday's watch presentation when ceo tim cook began speaking about apple's newest addition to the family. and just last night on cramer's tenth anniversary show tim cook himself phoned in to wish jim a very happy anniversary. and he also had this to say about apple's stock price. >> i look at your company and i think it's not that expensive, you've got the best balance sheet in the world, country, company, doesn't matter. you know my mantra. people should own apple, not trade it. do you think that eventually people will understand what i'm talking about? >> i think eventually they will, yes. for people that have owned the stock for ten years or so our stock price ten years ago when you started "mad money" was less than $6 on a split adjusted basis. and so you can bet those people are extremely happy right now.

>> grasso. >> i'm eventually going to learn. >> eventually. not right now, though. >> it triggered an rsi level in apple, triggered at the beginning of february, and then you've got relative strength index. but then it signaled at the end of february. now, it did this once before in november. most recently in november. when it leveled off it was down 11%. for me that's what i'm trying to capture here. i figured you know what? it's over the apple watch. i'll try to catch it down 11%. maybe buy it back in the teens. maybe around the 50 or the 100-day, which is 115-ish, 119-ish. but this is a quick turnaround trade. >> in other words, you sold -- >> sold my own position. i was long from -- lower than 100. so i'm locking in those profits right now. hoping for a middle teens. but it's also playing the market. the market's going lower. so i sold it. >> i sold mine last friday, and my view is it actually is an investment and it's not a trade. but it also had gone from 62 to

128. and for me that was a great time to see a company that had revalued significantly. i think i would be backing this company and i think it will still be another investment again but it doesn't mean you're supposed to fall asleep just because a company you believe is a great company to own for the long term moves. >> real quick, the down stream, qualcomm, we talked about, it they had that $15 billion repurchase. stock went from 72 to 75 in the after hours. now it's below 70 again. you wonder if qualcomm is challenged in this environment. obviously saw what happened with intel yesterday. qualcomm has made a series of lower highs and lower lows over the last six months. it just trades as if it wants to push back down toward the $60 level again. >> time now for pops and drops. big movers for herbalife. up 8%. guy. >> there was talk yesterday at the fbi's investigating bill ackman about herbalife and price manipulation. he comes out today and says he has not been contacted by the fbi. i'm not sure if he would have been anyway. i don't think that matters. he stands by everything he says about herbalife. it obviously rallied on this. this is not a stock for the weak

of heart. but in my pit of the stomach i still believe he's so steadfast in his view that where there's smoke there's fire in hlf. >> drop for united technology. >> this is a name i'm short a bit i guess about a year or so ago. and again, they have a lot of exposure overseas. dollar issues here. i don't think this is one that you try to pick up on this 2% drop. i actually think about 114 is where it's headed next. >> el pollo loco up 14%. >> fourth quarter sales were very good. strong numbers up 12%. this is a company now telling you we're going to expect to grow even more in 2015. that's the story. that's what you have to hope for because to buy this valuation you have to see growth. in this market i would not buy this. >> nxp up 6%. >> makes emv chins for credit cards for security. they also rifld in the connected car. i think it goes much higher. it's had an incredible move. up 37% year to date. a couple of much higher price targets. i think you're safe to stay with it. >> coming up next a massive alibaba lockup expiration next

week. our traders will take their positions right after the break. plus some good news for seinfeld fans. we'll tell you what it is. stay tuned. >> when i go into every single show i think of it as fighting a battle. >> part of the fun of the show is competing with each other. >> i am just as tough. maybe not quite as loud. but just as tough as they are. >> trading is all about putting yourself on the lines. >> it's unscripted. it's not on teleprompter. and guess what? when you're wrong, people are going to hold your feet to the fire. >> it's not just buy this, buy this, buy this. how did it turn out? because that's really the most important part of the trade. >> "fast money." weekdays 5:00 eastern on cnbc. every day, our teams collaborate around the world, to actively uncover, discuss and debate investment opportunities. which leads to better decisions for our clients. it's a uniquely collaborative approach you won't find anywhere else. put our global active management expertise to work for you. mfs. there is no expertise without collaboration.

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cfp -- work with the highest standard. 96% of them are doing rain-fed agriculture. . they're all competing with each other; they're all making very low margins, making enough to survive, but not enough to get out of poverty. so kickstart designs low cost irrigation pumps enabling them to grow high value crops throughout the year so you can make a lot of money. it's all very well to have a whole lot of small innovations, but unless we can scale it up enough to where we are talking about millions of farmers, we're not going to solve their biggest challenge. this is precisely where the kind of finance that citi is giving us, is enabling us to scale up on a much more rapid pace. when we talk to the farmers and ask them what's the most important thing. first of all they say we can feed our families. secondly, we can send our children to school. it's really that first step that allows them to get out of poverty and most importantly have money left over to plan for the future they want.

welcome back to "fast money." sources tell me that sony pictures television is in talks to sell the streaming video rights to "seinfeld." sony is talking to netflix, hulu, and amazon to offer "seinfeld" as part of those paid digital streaming subscription services. now, "seinfeld" is partially available, some of its episodes are available on turner and on crackle, which is sony's ad-supported streaming video service. it's possible that they'll have a deal wrapped up in the next several weeks, but there are no plans to announce anything in the next several days, my sources tell me.

melissa, back over to you. >> julia boorstin, thanks so much. certainly good news for those who have not seen "seinfeld." in case you're wondering -- >> would that be? >> who's never seen "seinfeld"? >> that guy. >> i've seen bits and drabs when you're flipping the channels, on the way to the ranger game. >> the question is how much will they pay for it and will this attract other viewers or subscribers, i should say? >> the syndication model is not new but where they're going with a lot of the streaming services will be soaking up a lot of this and those will be places, look at the place that's hold these assets and i think those are the ones that you'd want to be buying. >> how about netflix? >> has not traded well over the last couple weeks. you maybe have that double top at the 48 level we talked about it. i think below this 440 level you have a 50% correction to 400 bucks. >> big news next week for alibaba, the 180-day post-ipa lockup expiring next week which will allow 18% of the company to be sold publicly potentially.

maybe not all the smarz wihares come but that's the potential. >> i think if the stock was trading 20ds higher or at other key levels you would have seen a lot of that money. but it depends if you have any faith in this company because if i listen to sxhjt i'm long the company and it's traded below a key level that's around $84 but i'm not throwing it out the window ahead of this because i've listened to management, i've listened to a number of management conferences and notes from the street, deutschebank has had a note out a couple days ago saying these guys remain extremely confident on the long-term nature of their business and at 40 times these guys are giving the best growth and to me the most secure way to play the consumption growth in china. i'm not jumping out a window here. a lot of bad news has been priced into this lockup exchange. >> the problem is that after this lockup there's not a lockup in september with 1.6 billion shares. there are these big giant lock-ups and as much as we say a stock is very liquid and can absorb it what have we seen time and time again trading into a lockup expiration? >> stocks just fall off and they take forever -- >> especially on bad tape. >> exactly. and they take forever to

recover. but in the beginning i think we mentioned on this desk alibaba took away from amazon and amazon just ripped through the ceiling here. and amazon is at 370 currently. it gapped up higher. so from about a month and a half ago if you look at that 340 price that's your base. granted that's a pretty big move from here but i'd rather be a buyer of amazon at these levels. >> alibaba $80 is your bogey right there. that's your stop-out point. it's held there. if it goes below that if you have profits or you just have to bail on this thing and wait till things settle out. >> and $80 is the low on baba shares? time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. tim. >> i want to be buying italy. ewi. because i think the currency's your friend there. >> grasso. >> i mentioned during the show one of my pops, nxpi final trade. >> beakers. >> i'm going to go back to the well of hyg. still problems there. market goes lower, this goes lower. short it. >> got it. >> what have you got coming up? the options show. i love that dan nathan.

the handsome man. >> get a room. >> tesoro, tso had a rough march. i think it bounced today. tso goes higher. >> do not go anywhere after the break. dan niles reveals a large cap tech name most vulnerable to the dollar surge. that is next on "options action." see you back monday at 5:00 for more "fast." have a great weekend.

a cold breeze blowing through wall street with some traders calling for a correction. our guys here suiting up behind me with their best trades. but first here's what's coming up. >> we're not going to make it. >> that's how traders felt today, and it could get worse when the fed meets next week. we'll tell you why and how to protect yourself. plus -- >> to infinity. and beyond! >> and the dollar's about to go even higher. we'll tell you which sector in particular to avoid. and why are traders suddenly betting on herbalife again? >> we're not going to say anything publicly. >> but we will, bill, because the "action" starts now. ♪ kiss me baby let the fire get higher ♪ >> one big question tonight for investors is big oil going to cut their big dividends? let's get in the money and find out. go to mike here. what's the likelihood in your view of this? >> well, it's interesting because if you look at what the options markets a