times ebitda. >> james, appreciate it very much. >> thank you. we have -- let's go over your brackets. we have nine seconds. can't do that. >> happy st. patrick's day. >> happy st. patrick's day. wear some green tomorrow. >> green tomorrow. >> join us tomorrow to see andrew in green. wore green so you could hide from me. "squawk on the street" is coming up right now. ♪ good tuesday morning. happy st. patrick's day. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer at the new york stock exchangen david faber is off today. stocks look soft ahead of the open as we kick off day one of a two-day fed meeting. oil did fall below $43 this morning. talk of gasoline going back to $2 on average. ten-year yield, above 2. 05. housing starts no good.

american airline shares up added to the s&p at the end of the week. we'll hear from ceo doug parker. apple reportedly in talks with programmers about plans to launch online tv service this fall. the end of an era, microsoft reportedly dropping the internet explorer brand. first up futures falling amid a slide in february housing results as the fed gets ready to kick off the meeting. it's the biggest miss on starts according to the spoke since '07. >> holy cow. >> hard to build a house in february. >> we were among the weakest countries in the world during the month of february. it's funny what the fed's going to doen they look at february building homes fewer when we had half as many people in the country, household formation not good, rent's going up. it's worrisome. it's worrisome. you can't lose housing. housing punches above its weight

as john stupmf would tell you. >> looking past it? >> no. you don't need -- if they get rid of "patient" word it's happening at a time -- i would like to see march data because i've got to tell you, february data indicates that you should be cutting rates, not raising them. of course that's -- i'm not be facetious, if you had that data, and rates were 2% you'd want to take them down to 1.75. all of that said obviously weather. but this economy just is not going the way it's supposed to because that number is so low, as to basically say you must have thought the country shut down. the country did not shut down. >> yeah down 17%. >> unbelievable. >> your guess on tomorrow. >> they come up with a new word for "patient." main thing going for them

gasoline. yellen at this time last year said the spike in inflation would not be long lived. they've got gasoline back under 2 bucks, that's what makes retail and restaurants so great. they've got that. but this housing number is worst than the weather is the way i would put it. >> we remember the taper tantrum, what we called stock's reaction to bernanke back in the day. now the patience panic. that is what we're in for? >> step back for a second and recognize that as powerful as we think the fed is -- and there's a great article in the papers how the ripple effect of dollar -- in the end the fed is looking at what we were. they'll insert something else this data was not strong we've got to see more. you're data dependent, you're looking at data. one of the things about the fed, a transparent fed, people feel like they're sending the wrong direction. they're look agent dateing at data dataness uneven. >> oil bowelo 43.

opec leaving their forecast for nonopec supply unchanged. they think later in the year we might get change in output. >> i'm looking at the numbers, a very good oil company announced a secondary, it shows you how these guys need cash flow 4.5 million shares a very good company i was looking my guys rbn, who i use, they come out with an interesting report. peripheral fields beginning to get shut down. the field in utah new field was there, they're not drilling. you're going to see at this time next year not drilling issues are going to start making so our depletion is for real but it's this time next year. this first quarter is breakout quarter for oil production in the country. >> that's goppinging to hurt airlines. >> s&p one of the greatest mutual funds. take them out, they have

allergan, perfect, what a great win, add american. who knows what they're up to next. they are really fantastic managers. >> market weighted. american is going to be added to s&p as of the close of trading march 20th. as jim says replacing allergan acquired by actavis. this morning, doug parker of american was asked about fuel prices and hedging. take a listen. >> the falling fuel prices helps. we're seeing more of that benefit than most competitors because we're not locked into higher prices. the fuel price this year versus last year at today's prices today's curves 4.5 billion lower than what we paid last year. that certainly helps our earnings. >> parker added if they had been in the s&p last year they would have been the second-best performer. i think behind southwest. >> southwest has been terrific. now, first of all, i love doug parker, he's a straight shooter. second, think industry -- selling six times earnings

because people felt jet fuel would go up mcnerney, no one can get enough planes. i think american's good. i like southwest more because it never had losses during the badness. parker tells a great story. you're doing fine i wouldn't sell it. >> up 113% last year. i used to cover u.s. air for "the journal" back in the day and buffett learned a tough lesson on u.s. air. he said something around frankly new york airline is ever going to be a wonderful business. i wonder if that's now changed. >> i think it's changed because there was a consolidation that no one ever thought could happen. should these guys -- should united consin nenttinental be able to america? i don't think so. we don't have the competitive flow we used to have. so the airline business is

fabulous. a lot of what buffett didn't like was rampant vor voracious competition. that day is over. the competition is over which is why you see full planes. it isn't like people are traveling like they didn't used to. it's like the railroads, you don't see a lot of people saying i'm taking norfolk, southern. no they split the country up. split it up. >> amazing what they've done. >> win for everybody but -- >> except flyers. that's a different story. meantime, apple this morning, reportedly planning to launch a web television service in the fall. sources saying the tech giant's in talks with programmers to offer a bundle of 25 channels including abc, fox. comcast will not be part of the service, available on apple devices like apple tv.

calling it the skinny bundle. >> i read this. all right. i'm going to be selfish. are you kidding me? you're not going to have nbc? it's a big network. sunday night football. >> the report suggests this is not a done -- we're not at the end of the chapter. >> obviously if you're a cable company, this is what you've been most fearful of. but the cable companies are resourceful, don't want to wright them off. channels, you get past channel x and there's 180 that you're watching summit hula cross. look at that. >> which is pretty good. >> right. great lacrosse team. i know guy likes dell barton. everybody has their own channel. if i can cut out 397 channels and just get the ten i want i probably would pay more so i don't have to go through 397

channels to find "better call saul." apple tv perhaps the longest wait for a refresh of any product apple's ever made right? is this finally it? >> if they do this they always -- remember a great article about how they ruled the banks and banks were fearful. apple pay, i'm installing at bar san miguel. i'm working overtime to get that done. don't worry, my bank will check for fraud. i think this is long awaited. what they touch is working. i had mark benioff on the watch people writing stuff for the watch, this not a watch. it's not a watch. it is a health device that masquerades as something that tells time. this apple tv is what we want because i want sunday night football. you're not going to get me to subscribe, i have to have sunday night football. this is what -- everybody knows this is like when someone does a

single in the old days of 45 you turn the other side over you didn't want it you but they didn't have -- >> that's an amazing metaphor the b side. >> listen to that. like, wow. it was really -- except sam kochkoch i couldn't think of anybody who did it. >> pure cable place. >> cable companies. in the end, the cable companies have not nine live but was like 437 lives. i work ford a cable company people said jim you look like your curry favor. i'm wearing a green tie, cur rig favor. >> the kind of news that jack ma likes to hear alibaba a wall street upgrade. we'll tell you about that in a little while. creator of google wallet, what he's up to now when it comes to the world of mobile payments. take a look the premark. trying to get two days up in a row in march. have not been able to do that

yet. >> haven't had to days of the dollar up. >> with that premark looks weak. more "squawk on the street" from post 9 in a minute. you can find a new frontier. there's nothing stopping you and a lot helping you. technology that's with you always. this is our promise. it's never been better to wander because wherever you go, you'll find us doing everything we can, so you can.

♪ chinese e-commerce giant

alibaba up graded from hold to buy, price target of $99. the regulatory risk surrounding counterfeit items appear to have subsided. we know what the stock's done. i big lockup. >> x out alibaba yahoo's! like minus $4. this is interestingly timed because i think that a lot of people feel the stock's been softened, so to speak, like they just shelled it and shelled it. now you can land the troops my issue i don't like -- too many things going none china i don't understand. chinese domestic seems weaker export seems weaker. whatever they they want to dump here. the mccau number ridiculous. you don't want to be levered to china now though the mark's up huge. >> because of the jawboning from officials about stimulus. >> geez, i think they don't want

anything overheating now. and the stock can bounce a little but there's a lot of stock. i've nerve seen -- >> this is happening wednesday, expiration, 337 million shares open for trade. >> if ma calls everybody and says don't sell you have -- i don't think there's a lot of risk here if you buy yahoo!. i think you should be buying yahoo! >> thinking back to the ipo, it was pricing and you lost interest quickly. >> singles day. singles day. look there's no doubles day, no double-singles day no triple -- whatever i play "house of cards." but i do think that that was it. i mean it got -- come on you don't have multiple days of that kind of spin. and everyone went crazy. went from 118 to 120. >> you think the ipo priced to have that quickly follow? you think the ipo's --

>> ahead of single's day? you know what? >> who knows? >> it really has, i didn't know -- i used to joke with david, david introduced plea to the concept of single's day, theoretical concept, jim, single's day. well timed. >> it was. fortuitous timing. >> yes. leave it at that right? kind of wow that was good timing. >> yes. it is something that would mark the end of an era for microsoft, the verge is reporting that the company's killing off the internet explorer brand and will use a new name for the upcoming browser successor, project spartan. explorer will exist in some versions of windows 10 mainly enterprise compatibility. >> you don't think they'll make the number. >> i think what's at stake, can they do the 53 cents and i think that's going to be very hard for them to do. and i, you know i look at this product and, yes, they need to

rebrand. it's not rebranding. it's not like rebanding -- let's say you're making alpo, you make alpo, new and improved two. >> do we want to see a headline that said cramer compared to internet explorer to dog food? >> they're trying to get xbox make it -- it's like when you go to campbell soup. they don't talk about -- microsoft is a downer name. they ought to come up with something else. you know they can't call it applesoft, but that would probably do better. microapple. >> pressure regarding for enexchange. >> you have to do more than talk the companytalk. they have to split the company up. until then numbers have to come down across the street because

it's obvious if you're killing this off, it's not because the product is doing real well. >> interesting. >> right on the alpo i've been using fresh sticks that dogs love the fresh sticks then don't want the chinese dog food. they know about chinese dog food. isn't that something? >> i think if you asked any dog owner, they would probably say i don't give -- >> press the boo ya button. >> cramer's "mad dash," count down to the opening bell. dow's had triple digit moves 6 of 7 sessions but for a total move of down 150 points. more "squawk on the street" in a minute.

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♪ just about nine minutes till the bell on tuesday. cramer's mad dash ahead of the market open big call on by goldman on actavis. >> goldman reinstates actavis with conviction buy. talking $24 number in 2017 which puts the stock around here. i have bret saunders on roh tonight. the cloegingsing of the deal with allergan. they did a huge amount of stock, equity offering and it's holding up. brent saunders watch him tonight. i think he's extraordinary. he's put together a growth pharma we don't have those. people feel it's done with smoke

and mirrors because of the inversion. allergan was a great company. if he can monetize allergan -- the stock's going higher. >> allergan expands the pipeline in different ways. >> botox is a pipeline within a pop pipeline. many off-line uses that can be commercialized. it's the great miracle drug of the era when it comes to muscle relaxation. works for migraines, different muscles people need relaxed. studies galore and actavis will take advantage. people feel david pyott didn't do enough with botox. i thought he did tons. >> or perhaps marketed in a way long term created perceptions that maybe fought against -- >> that's it. that's it. what happened with botox, that it got a bad name, so to speak, being for brazilian supermodels. he used botox, even those he's 44 to show how great it is.

try makeup that can also do it. >> and mgm. >> we have land and buildings, great name for activist, aut to convert to reit for some of the stock, real estate value, 70% upside base. fast money has the ceo. caught up with mccau. this has the least mccau of the mccaus. i don't think this is a bad call at all. >> comes a day after morgan stanley cut wynn arguing damage is more structural than thought. >> 50% decline, comemunists don't like the junkets. that country is dictatorship, people always think, if it's capitalists, it can't be dictatorship. that's wrong. chinese decided we're not going to let people gamble the way they used to. it's like the old day of come

niche they don't want to show people who are rich. only thing left buy expensive watches, apple watches. >> suspicious of names heavily levered to mccau? >> very much so. stay away. some of my favorite companies, steve wynn, an amazeing guy. sheldon adelson, politically not talking about that but businessman fantastic. tough to watch. you can't own them. steve i have worshipped him from the day, philadelphia when my father said this is the great american businessman, be like him. he's still stuck with china. >> big risks, not always -- they don't always pay off. >> no. exactly right. chinese were a wild card. who thought they'd go this way? >> opening bell in 5:30. don't go away.

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for a free 30-tablet trial go to cialis.com take a deeeeep breath in. . . and . . . exhale. . . aflac! and a gentle wavelike motion... ahhh- ahhhhhh. liberate your spine... ahhh-ahhhhhh......aflac! and reach, toes blossoming... not that great at yoga. yeah, but when i slipped a disk he paid my claim before i knew it. ahh! so he had your back? yep. in just one day, we approve and pay. one day pay, only from aflac. [duck snoring] you're watching cnbc's "squawk on the street," live from the financial capital of the world on tuesday. opening bell in just about 2:30. just chatting with the ceo of northrop grumman on the podium. >> lockheed martin amazing stocks, as people recognize the

sequester didn't hurt them. a lot of overseas sales. this man's a remarkable -- remarkably friendly to shareholder ceo as lockheed martin. i've tried to have him on the show. candidly, they are shy. shy. >> camera shy. there's a few of those. that's okay. meantime i don't foe if you knew this st. paddy's day, you've got the green tie on i have green socks on. one of the highest upward biases day of the year 90% upbardward bias since 2000. march 23rd, 80%. >> now there's a great stat. not sure what to do with it but that would show we would have a turn. i just -- you know i've got to tell you, i haven't been to -- i've been to ireland, four five times. a lot of fun. >> annual st. patrick's day

meeting. >> best performer in terms of gdp growth employment a country voting on a referendum for always sartyusterity. look at joy of it. greece should pay attention. >> msarich rejecting a proposal from simon mall group. believes the unsolicited $16 build under values the company. approving new measures to defend against possible takeovers. none of this is ever clean, especially in the last year or two. >> no. boy, real estate investment trusts, such a big move and they're so big, often overlooks the size. that would be a great deal for simon if they can get. they sent me three things today, how horrible, i love you, but it's horrible. it a great deal for simon if they get this done. period. end of story. >> s&p at the top of the screen.

see how much green there is on st. patrick's day. >> that's why. >> here at big bore northrop grumman's retiring cfo jim pauler and nasdaq kelya services doing the honors. another company for whom green is an important color. >> exciting. i've got to tell you, if we can break the streak because we have been -- this is a mark's that worn a lot of people done in its own great way. restaurants and retail have been good. some biotech has been good. cut numbers, cut numbers, and internationals, people are tired of cutting numbers particularly tech stocks. we'd like to see if you're -- if you're long, this is a key day because they've got the fed tomorrow. like to come in believing that maybe things get better get a little head of steam. >> you say cable companies have long lives. >> yes. >> comcast, time warner cablevision close to the bottom of the s&p list this morning.

>> it is jarring. i remember the news that came out, came out in the evening but apple, and jim cramer on twitter, i know why he's saying invest, don't trade. these things are long time coming. i know there was the leak we worked for comcast and the articles said that comcast somehow thinks it soured. i don't know anything about this. if you ask people they prefer not to have those our 472 channels. you know the channel that has the chamber of commerce of some meeting discuss -- >> the zoning board of committee of -- of neighborhood -- come on guys. >> dsw, shoe business, doing okay, 5% gain. >> great company. >> 35 beats by 7 cents and comps up 7.6. >> 7 is gold number. if you have comps 6.7, stocks take off. designer shoe warehouse, doing a

remarkable job. i thought if they didn't get the stock up someone would come after them. that's a fun place to shop. >> another comp in the six range, burlington. look at that chart, amazing. two-year chart of burlington. >> it's like a cold weather play. >> hasn't fallen below the 50-day in -- i've got to go back to july of last year. >> it's been remarkable story. i remember the old burlington stores. it is -- when it's cold it's good. as you can tell from columbia sportsing good. the cold weather hurt the housing business it didn't hurt burlington stores. >> interesting call on gm today. morgan stanley -- >> i hate that call! my charitable trust own temperatures that guy said short, sell -- that guy, morgan stanley, just -- >> by the way, for the 18th straight month running, what, 7%, the fastest pace in a year.

>> that fellow's a negative fellow. >> if you policed it morgan stanley resumed with under weight $28 target. buyback for those short-term focused, not long-term focused. >> i read it. come on, man. it's not so bad. really. i mean i think that call's going to be dead wrong. my charitable trust owns it. i think it's going to be dead wrong. that company has a lot of things going for it most of all a turn in europe. i own gm i care about a turn in europe. the u.s. is incredibly strong. >> talking about that not only were european auto sales up 7, p.i.i.g.s up 10. >> spain good. >> and investor confidence a miss on estimates highest level in 13 months. >> the combination of thinking "patient" is not going to removes and europe is stronger. it's making people feel maybe

we're -- maybe europe's getting better enough that the dollar advance will be slower which is all that you need. you don't need the dollar to go down. you just need the advance to be not as rapid so people can hedge and do some things so they're not torn asuner. trillions of dollars in bonds issued by dollar-based bonds and that's my worry with petrobras. you need to see pressure taken off. the velocity in the move is too fast. this will be very good. >> any corporate treasurer would agree with you. the last six weeks -- >> it's like whack a mole. oh, no realp mexican peso 15.15. it's very tough. very tough. >> apple which we know crossed 130 not long ago. that's almost a dollar gain of 1.26 on the tv report. >> people get excited. apple. continual parade of kind of cool

things. and i think that this is within you pick up the paper and say, that makes sense. but you say nbc, can they do it without nbc? i don't know the answer. we work for nbc. >> oil, as we mentioned, fell below 43 earlier in the morning. retail gas, retail gasoline that we buy at the pump down for nine straight days. big piece in usa today, average could go back to 2. >> bullish. >> from 2.42. a year ago 3.51. >> i saw that again. a lot of people are worried about what happens to oil. take a look at deal a huge number of refinances the break even has been lowered. do not fret the notion of the oil patch there is so much private equity that exxon wants to be in. you don't want to sweat the program. it's a couple of states it's colorado, maybe the magellan -- put in a very big pipe.

the big problem's boxen, enen bakken crude, flammable, why everybody's worried about it. >> looking at housing names today, obviously that's going to be tough, right? >> i mean got to be careful. housing is case by case. toll brothers has a tremendous pipeline very very very good city stuff that's doing quite well. >> urban. high-end urban. >> raising price, raising price. i don't want to sell the group on this. i worry about the economy. they've got to snap out of it. >> micron, one of the worst performers as well. cutting numbers. >> rbsc cuts numbers. anything pc is just insectsecular decline. micron's in your pc not enough flash. >> under armour is that a new high on ua?

>> strong call. strong call from fbr. when i spoke to kevin plank last week, this guy wants to take over the world, and he's succeeding. they have 135 million people in map my fitness, you look at weight watchers it's in trouble. map my fitness, extraordinary, extraordinary product that people love fitbit they love -- and so what people do this is like under armour's decided to become a tech company that also sells apparel. and they have high-end apparel that does a lot of things that apparel doesn't do. should nike be worried. >> if i were nike nike runs scared. under armour wanted duran, which is great but they got stephen curry, who is lethal. i love the fact that kevin, curry's much better. >> high on under armour is 78.17, we're basically there.

>> i think that is a great stock and a great company. kevin plank is amazing. technology's extraordinary. >> with all of that dow down 90 points. let's get over to bob pisani on the floor. >> a weak open dow one point off 100 points. we've seen this a lot in the last several weeks. housing starts one of the weakling. down fractionally for major names. look at lennar d.r. horton pulte, toll brothers on the weak side. we had a horrible february housing starts number. i was the real estate reporter 20 year ago, i look at numbers carefully. 897,000, 14% below expectations. these expectations are wide range. they really missed it it. i don't know if they can't figure out the weather or not, what the analysts are doing. the reason i'm optimistic northeast 56% decline, midwest

37% decline. there's where the bad weather united states. clearly affects areas that had the worst. here's the only reason i'm not willing to blame everything on bad weather. look at permit numbers because permits don't require construction. they file for something. theoretically we should be doing better. permits up 3%. gain in multifamily, up 19%, single family down 6%. it's kind of hard to decide here. i want to say permits indicate we'll have a good spring. but it's very split here. so i'd say we need another month of data to determine any downturn. but it's very clear, a long string of disappointing economic numbers. this is not just the first economic number that's been disappointing. industrial production in february capacity utilization, housing market index, retail fed surveys all misses expectations. the only one that has been not disappointing, nonfarm payroll

services. nonfarm payroll ises the most important thing weep have very good reasons to suggest the fomc may remove "patient" word but not going to stop being patient on this data. that's my point. i think she's going to manage expectations for a very very slow rate hike i'm feeling september is more likely than june. right now energy stocks weak. take a look at names. new lows on the west texas intermediate. big names are down fractionally. i thought yesterday with new lows on energy encouraging, not only didn't drop but up fractionally. this started the same way yesterday. energy down fractionally and ended up fractionally. we're doing this again today. watch this carefully here. it does look like energy's not quite dropping as much as the underlying commodity here. meantime you heard about american airlines the airlines on the upside going into the s&p 500, understandably. american is the big gainer in the airline groups. all of the rest jetblue,

united delta, southwest on the upside. europe we've been lower all morning. the investor confidence index in determineny, weaker. it's up 5% on the month overall, constant currency. france nearly also on the upside. down right now. the shanghai composite, little engine that could keeps going up and up. almost another 2% gain. 1.6% there. no big news but clear implication, i hope you heard the premier yesterday saying they would continue to use stimulus if it needed to. they had many other tools at their disposal sounding very much like mario draghi saying whatever it's going to take. another big winner right now, domestic china market. right now the dow down 103 points. >> bob pisani. over to the bond pits check in with rick santelli at cme in

chicago. good morning, rick. >> good morning, carl. well if you look at intraday ten, what you can glean from this chart, there's not much to glean from this one-day chart we made low yields after the housing data came out at 8:30 eastern and it was soft housing data. some of the weakest starts since the fall of 2013. if you open the chart up to february 1st, a clearer picture. certainly we are in a range. it's not as tight as some of the ranges but it's tight about a quarter point. this is what you want to pay tension to. right around 2.17 to 2.20 above the market. if you look at the spread between 10s and 20s, and this is important, if the fed's going to embark on a removal of accommodation, but there's some debate, what you want to glean from the chart starting summer 2012 the flattest since then but the flattest is around 120 basis points. we're sitting at 140.

we've steepened a bit. maybe some of the flatteners which is purports to be the trade, but there's second thoughts associated with it of it. not just the last couple of days. for about the last month. look at what's going on overseas in the bunds, two-day chart reveals sideways. but sideways under 30 basis points is significant. because as you look at february 1st of the bund the way we looked at our ten, notice their range is tighter and it would make a lot of sense considering how small their yield is. but their range is 30 to 40 basis points. the fact that we're below that is significant. so many traders will see how to acts once it gets close to 30 basis point level. let's look at foreign exchange. two day of the euro versus dollar, it's building a little bit. now granted, as you open the chart up to february of this year as well on the euro versus the dollar we're still at very extreme levels.

no market goes in one direction for ever. the same could be said with the perspective of the dollar versus the yen, also starting in february. yes, it's not at the extremes but it's certainly hovering the extreme line. carl, back to you. >> thank you very much. rick santelli. as we said earlier, oil prices have recovered but not much. better bert that cupha coombs. >> we come off of the lows but trade lower. now for a sixth straight day here. and we've got april options expiring on wti nymex crude, biggest position for strike price at $40. not sure if we'll see that today but expire this afternoon. that could make for more volatility. we are trading may brent crude contract now. take a look at complex, continues to be under pressure here. one of the things people are watching whether the talks with iran bear fruit. also the dynamic on the election

in israel if you get a new prime minister there might be more amenable to some treaty with iran the u.s. and others getting a treaty that could bring more oil back on to the market which is not what the mark is looking at. despite weaker dollar for a second day, we are not seeing any carry through in commodities, certainly not in the metals. they're giving back all of their gains from yesterday. >> thank you. we'll talk to you soon. a new valuation for pinterest. shares of rack space up sharply since taylor rhodes became the ceo six months ago. his unique strategy for moving beyond the cloud. having trouble putting two up days together. dow's down 131. back in a moment. the road. it can bring out the worst in people.

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according to a regulatory filing pinterest has raised $367 million in its recent funding round. that values the start-up around $11 billion, $11 billion. pinterest plans to use money for international expansion. it's now one of the most highly valued start-ups in the world, jim. >> these are things that worry people. constantly have this -- are you kidding me how can it be valuable? what would it be valued if it were a public company, wouldn't it show you there's overvaluation overvaluation? these guys round after round goes higher. i hope they're realistic. things have to go right. box, a company a like round after round, finally it's like wow, what did we do here? >> they've raised $764 million and probably not done. and this subsequent rounds to come. >> look, you have to look at instagram, that turned out to be -- just be aware, when people

talk about overvaluation, they're looking. >> speaking of start-ups, trouble for uber in south korea. the korea times reporting a handful of employees detains by violating the country's transport law. south korean employees plan to summon the ceo and if he does not comply an arrest warrant could be issued. he was originally indicted in december, amid charges of running illegal taxi business. uber corekorea says uber fully cooperated with the police. uber does not believe employees have engaged in misconduct or illegal behavior. >> you've got to be on your game when you're in every single market. you'll get attacked in every single market because they're disruptive. i love it. i use it. i love it. >> even 40 billion valuation? >> that was within i was hoping would be 20 25 but this is a -- this is one that yes, i'm

going to say a truly valuable company because it disrupts a market that was ripe for disruption and it's very well-run. i know there's another player in it, but i've got to tell you, it's an impressive algorithmic study how to disrupt an industry. >> for one just asking for it. >> that's why. this united states the greatest -- those of us who use it are like okay this one where like shake shack valuation, very different in terms of the amount of the size -- but people love the product. people will buy the stock. >> already a noun a verb. uber. like a kleenex. >> every cell phone should come with it download it. "stop trading" with jim in a moment. the dow weakening to lows of the early part of the session, down 176. don't go away.

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now with the xfinity tv go app, you can watch live tv anytime. it's never been easier with so many networks all in one place. get live tv whenever you want. the xfinity tv go app. now with live tv on the go. enjoy over wifi or on verizon wireless 4g lte. plus enjoy special savings when you purchase any new verizon wireless smartphone or tablet from comcast. visit comcast.com/wireless to learn more. take a look at the dow, down 164. s&p down 20. lp the inverse of yesterday.

>> same stocks that are up down two bucks, up two bucks yesterday. the two to watch today, carl bank of america, pushed it hard citi pushed it hard. these would be the stocks if you think there's a turn it would be those. banking group strong fed tomorrow quizzical. a tough market. it's wearing people down. it really is. >> you want to do "stop trading"? if we have a minute here. >> you know look i've got to tell you, big stop trading name espr, people say what do you do up there when you're not talking to each other? they've got a cholesterol pill. the cholesterol drugs you heard about yesterday are needles. you know i prefer pill to a needle any day of the week unless you're really kind of masochist. i've got them. and then brent saunders the wonderful activist which, again,

i think you want to watch activist. if that stock's down there -- brent is talking a great game of $24 a share in 2017. it's a growth pharma that's the company that allergan deal closed we got our e-mail from david pyott, i have got my new e-mail david pyott's done. >> a good run. >> did he ever. real shareholder value. >> talking about health care it is almost dominating the new high list today. actavis, regeneron. >> malloncot is cheaper than actavis. people have endlessly undervalued -- look at that thing. that is humming. it was much much lower. it's going higher. it's undervalued considering traditional pharma. >> say hello to tim tebow. >> on the scout team for five minutes. >> an open mind what everybody says about chip. "mad money," 6:00 p.m.

simon's here to tell us what's coming up next. big moves, keep everybody up to speed. lower for longer but case against near-term rally in oil. apple tv look like it's the talk of the summer. we'll have analysis. and the logic that art cashin says janet yellen is about to em employ on two days of fomc. hour two on "squawk on the street."

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♪ good tuesday morning. welcome back to "squawk on the street" i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen, simon hobbs, post 9 at the new york stock exchange. faber is off. tough tape especially coming off of yesterday. we've yet to put two up days together this month. oil not help falling below $43 a barrel earlier this morning. >> that's where we start our road map. oil prices fall, the oil services sector seeing big declines. how you should be playing these stocks. apple planning a web tv service to debut this summer. find out what it means if there's more upside for apple shares. and wall street under pressure ahead of today's fed meeting. investors weary of possibility

of interest rate increase. a read on what to expect from janet yellen. >> a live shot of capitol hill. jack lew giving his annual testimony on the state of the international financial system before the house financial services committee. headlines from that testimony, of course, we'll bring it to you as soon as it crosses. sometimes an image says it all. happy st. patrick's day, art. >> the rest of the day to yourself, sir. >> nice to see you. good morning. congratulations. are you surprised that the strong bid we had in the last two hours of yesterday didn't follow through this morning? >> yes but as carl pointed out we've had a difficult time putting together back-to-back updays through the month of march. i think it's a kind of sense of the indecisiveness of the market's exemplifies indecisiveness of the players themselves, can't be sure things data dependent yet data looks weak and fed might want to inch closer to lift-off if you would. >> well, certainly we expect

them tomorrow to formally announce they're opening the way to a rate rise by removing the word "patient" on future interest rate rises but you suggest janet yellen might employ some poker logic here. what do you mean? >> well it's pretty simple. if she takes the word out, it doesn't compel her to raise rates. and she has a press conference immediately after, so she can calm the marks if they look like they're destabilized by the removal at 2:00 in the statement. if they leave the phrase in by their own definition they are postponing any rate move for two months because they said it will be at least two months after the word "patient" comes out. >> some people would be horrified that the idea that the leader of the most powerful central bank in the world will change the tenor of what she's saying on two days of trading. >> no i think it's simple, the theory of games, kind of logic that wars are fought with. you've got to give yourself the

optimum flexibility and i think that's what she wants to do. >> the way they do that they're data dependent and move on the economic data which by the way hasn't looked so hot lately. today's housing starts yeah blame the weather but it's the latest in a string of misses in the economy. >> it's been absolutely dreadful. if you look at the way they normally compute their inflation guidance guidance, they are going to be lowering that. it's not only is it not going to hit their target they may have to lower it from earlier expectations. a weird thing is the day before a fed statement has a mild upward bias but it's one heck of an uphill drive today because of what's happening in europe and elsewhere. >> arguably the markets are positioning for something more hawkish but the indication is it's going to be more dovish. she can stress the poor data, manufacturing down three straight months at the same

time, there's that possibility that she focuses on the dollar to a greater extent and the dots come down. >> well the docs will be per flexing for the viewers that don't know. the dots relate to the estimates of the individual participants where they think certain economic targets will be. they have been more hawkish than the fomc has been. but i suggest to you if you look at bonds and if you look at the stock market yesterday, people are looking for at least a neutral, if not, dovish outcome from the state. >> what happens interesting today is the dollar is weak somewhere stocks are weaker. usually stocks following the dollar the other way around. yesterday the weak dollar helped stocks rally. is that notable here? >> it's notable but it's a trial separation than a divorce, you know? i think it's very short-term aspect. >> oil, we mentioned earlier, opec's forecast yesterday, gold

is moving in $10 increments that's weird. >> it is. i think that's part of the relative indecisiveness in this market. people don't have a commitment. you know to simon's point about the strength in the final two hours yesterday that looked like people who were perhaps bidding during the day hoping that prices would fall and get a bargain and when they failed to do that in the final two hours they had to pay up and that's what they were doing. i don't find deep commitment here. you can see some of the big players have already moved their target over to europe they're not so sure how much they want to stay invested in the u.s. market. >> a vix expiration this week? does that mean more chop than normal or not? >> it's quadruple x, that could be a problem. and we're going to have an eclipse at the same time. all of the magic mumbo jumbo traders look for will be

colliding friday. >> can you remember the prayer that you revealed in your note overnight? young men for centuries told on the presentation of the first corkscrew in ireland. >> i haven't committed it to memory, i must say. >> save that for next time. a great read. art tashcashin from ubs. >> bagpipes 1:30. >> when we come back oil services names seeing big declines today and over the last pont month as oil dips to new lows. is this a buying opportunity?

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♪ if your life was gold how long do you think♪ oil is falling for the sixth day in a row. wti off of its lows of the morning but still, sitting near six-year low, amid concerns that a glut in the united states is outpacing storage capacity. big oil services names face continued selling pressure. halliburton, 11% decline, just over the past month. joining us now to discuss, baird senior analyst dan leaven who covers oil services and equipment.

before we get into the specific names, what do you think of the idea out there today a potential deal with iran over nuclear ambitions could add to the glut in oil, because they would release all of the new oil into the market? >> yeah absolutely. i think that's going to be a challenge for the markets, as we look at global overall supply and demand balance. if we getfully kind of resolution in iran i rainranians talked about bringing 1 million baseballs a day in short order and now we're 1 million to 2 million over supply. absolutely that's a real risk and a real concern, as we look at the oil markets going forward. >> with brent down to 52.91, lower for longer how you see the price of oil. a i think a lot of colleagues would agree. how much of that is already priced in? how much has been felt by the cost cuts and lay-offs? >> i think we're still very early in this process. we've been saying lower for

longer since back in about october. prior to the opec decision and we're sticking with that. the biggest driver rig productivity. great for the oil service firms and emps efficient at extracting oil and the productivity of the shale oil wells continues to go higher. the challenge is we don't believe they've corrected enough. we think there's a lower crude price environment coming. for those looking at great franchises long term we think they're going to fine better buying opportunities over the next 6 to 12 months. >> what are throws better buying franchises? what are names people should look to jump into at some point? >> the name most comfortable is schlumberger. blue chip name in the space. you more expose sure to international marks hit less hard than the u.s. where we're seeing rapid rig count declines rapid pricing declines. that's a place to get better

exposure. in terms of other names, i'm neutral now, but would look to get more aggressive in the future, halliburton followering the baker hughes transaction. that's going to be a name you're going to want to own but you have to get the deal closed. you are v. to go through a lot of pain in interim to get the integration done. for those that want to get involved, i would tell them to wait but if you want to go now, i'd prefer baker hughes given the halliburton transaction. you more protection from the downside as well as leverage to. upside if the stock starts working. >> what happens if you get a positive shock from the politicians? talking about the export ban on oil being lifted. if that were possible if lawmakers would get behind it ihs has a report out suggesting 400,000 to twice it that number of jobs could potentially be created, particularly in the transportation of oil out of the

country. i mean people worry that actually it would send the price of gasoline higher. do you believe it would send the price of gasoline high or or lower as we heard yesterday. >> i think that when we talk about gasoline prices and ihs has a better perspective into the downstream issues than i do in the services space, but my take is if we did lift the band a narrowing in the gap between brent and wti. but it wouldn't be a huge benefit for consumers because we just would be normalizing close to where we're at now from a jobs perspective, oil patch perspective, great for companies but i don't think we'd see the full flow through into the consumer because they're benefitting from low prices today and the changes would be very minute. >> with the price changes you mentions halliburton-baker hughes deal which has yet to close. do you expect more consolidation in the sector.

>> i think consolidation in the services sector is a significant theme we'll see over the course of many years. i don't expect many transactions announced this year because we have a significant disconnect between buyers and sellers expectations. sellers thinking about recovering back to where we were last year and buyers hoping for bargain basement prices. outside distressed scenarios i don't see a lot of m&a happening this year. as we get into '16 and '17 we could see more consolidation. >> focused on the monthly jobs report and impact on oil and gasp it seems like services companies have born the brunt of the lay-offs across the oil industry. do you expect more to come? if so, how many are we talking about? >> i would expect more job cuts to come. a lot of companies have said we're taking it at a quarter or a month at a time and the rig counts have continued to decline, i would not be surprised to see additional cuts across the oil firms especially

the second quarter. i would expect to see announcements of additional cuts when we hit april earnings season. >> thanks very much, dan leben, good to see you. >> thank you. >> apple might be launching a serious alternative to cable this fall. that's according to reports. what does it mean for the stock and the stock of all of the cable companies? more on that after the break. hey, girl. is it crazy that your

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apple reportedly planning to launch a web tv service this fall according to the "wall street journal." the service could feature a bunch of big named broadcaster, available only on apple devices. josh lipton live with more on that story. good morning, josh. >> good morning, carl. you know when i spoke to apple's eddie cue last week the itunes chief told me that we are

beginning to see as cue said the reinvention of tv and told me consumers want to watch what they want when they want and where they want. apple ceo tim cook of the recent shareholder meeting echoed those same comments discussing apple's new partnership with hbo in which hbo streaming service will be available on apple devices for $15 per month. cook and cue, they both know consumers want to watch tv everywhere and apple could be in the position to meet that demand. apple's launching of a web tv service could help boost sales of the hardware already to dater the company has sold 25 million apple tvs. and the company's making moves to make that device more competitively priced slashing the price tag from $99 to $69. an online tv service could potentially work on all ios devices. consumers want to watch tv and

movies on screens large and small and turn to apple. in the last quarter alone, apple shipped 75 million iphones and 21 million ipads, financial annists covering apple think that the tech giant is paving the way for grander ambitions in the tv market in your living room and they say a streaming tv service has the potential to help that process along. carl back to you. >> josh lipton out west. sticking with apple and the web tv service, let's bring in the technology analyst at btig. good morning to you. >> good morning, carl. >> a lot of discussion they're going to do to the bundle what they did to the album. is that true? >> apple is -- whenever apple enters any market, people are feelful. what josh said is right, key number 75 million iphones they sold last quarter and ecosystem of half a billion people with iphones globally. but as far at tv is concerned

this isn't a huge shock. they've been talking about this being an area of interest for a while. you've seen developments with sling tv maybe sony talked about stuff, verizon talked about an over the top service. this shouldn't be a huge shock to people. just a natural evolution of apple trying to capture you more into their ecosystem. >> it's been a while. those who have waited for a refresh on tv out of apple have waited a long time. you're saying now is the moment because it's sort of the moment for everybody? >> i think that's one factor. but a year ago the "wall street journal," i think the same author, wrote about apple's initial attempts in the space. i think at the time they were talking about partnering with cable companies using a managed service because they were worried about the quality. apple's all about quality. with a managed service they can give you better quality of services as far as video stream. look at the article from last night, this has nothing to doit and managed services. they're going full over the top, could be more disruptive it to

the cable companies. maybe apple wanted to do this earlier. was frustration in dealing with companies like comcast, which is not new, that has led them to the next step of going full over the top for the service offering. >> how should we think of the grander ambition here for apple? is it in a hardware television, is it something that you can watch on your ipod or ipad or iphone? what is the big picture look like here, say, one year out or even a few years out? >> we know that the vast majority of the profits are the iphones. a lot of that is extending the experience i'm think just use apple's own words, listen to the management team, a lot of ways they're trying to make your life better and where your life has frustration points are in the living room with what little development that has occurred with the set top box. you can provide a car experience, some people take that to the next step and say, you make a car, you don't necessarily need to make a car to improve someone's experience

in the car. beauty of apple is as they negotiate in these industries if someone says we don't want to deal with you, apple, apple's cash balance sheet is the ultimate gun they can put to anyone's head and say we'll enter the market to a greater gee. look at what apple is talking about, if comcast doesn't want to be part of that i'm not sure apple cares, they can get a fair amount of customers anyway. look at sling tv. no broadcast, i think rico talked about 100,000 subs with no broadcast at all. >> the immediate point as to what their aims are here this is not about a physical set top box, this is not about a television, is it? this is about an app that lives somewhere else. that's very important for the ecosystem, very for for the connectivity of apple watch and using that as remote control. you're commoditizing the screen. that isn't where the game is clearly, with what they're attempting to do here. this is an app that can sit

anywhere provided your tv can connect to the internet. >> customers are paying more for the screen size of the 6 and 6 plus but not paying for the greater amount of glass. they're paying for what's behind it. what we're hearing about now has nothing to do with a new large tv. however, you know this is the first part. if next they can integrate things in television and make it a better experience -- apple is not only about the user experience it's about style. they're charging $10,000 for a watch. if they can make a better tv this can be the first step. >> if you take the brains out of the television which is what they're doing, and say i will have it as an online app, there's no greater functionality to be gained from the tv. you can have it as a sleeker design but i suggest their aspirations move on somewhere else. you can have screens of tv screens that bill onuild and the wall.

>> can they chew gum and walk at the same time? just because they're doing one thing doesn't mean they can't evolve the product into an attractive television product or they call it a large display. because they're going in the living room doesn't mean they can't do things in auto to solve the issue that exists there. >> i'm sure you noticed weakness that comcast, time warner cable had at the open are you willing to write off the bundle and are these stocks at the highest that going to be at for a while? >> that's a rich greenfield question. look at article in the "wall street journal" a year ago, how rich and i have looked at this evolution. we thought they would have to partner with cable companies. this article today is not about partnering with comcast, it's going over the top and that could be more disruptive than how we thought this mobile video service wouz going to emerge over time. >> interesting times, walter. thank you so much. good to see you again. straight ahead on the show will today and tomorrow's fed

meeting cause market fireworks? investors expecting the word "patience" to be dropped from the fed's statement, opening the way to a rate rise potentially in june. but what happens next?

jack's heart attack didn't come with a warning. today, his doctor has him on a bayer aspirin regimen to help reduce the risk of another one. if you've had a heart attack be sure to talk to your doctor before your begin an aspirin regimen. who do you work for? your boss? yourself? your family? our financial advisors are free to realize a plan to fit your family's unique needs. we'll listen. we'll talk. we'll plan. baird.

now with the xfinity tv go app, you can watch live tv anytime. it's never been easier with so many networks all in one place. get live tv whenever you want. the xfinity tv go app. now with live tv on the go. enjoy over wifi or on verizon wireless 4g lte. plus enjoy special savings when you purchase any new verizon wireless smartphone or tablet from comcast. visit comcast.com/wireless to learn more. good morning. i'm sue herera. here's your cnbc news update. israelis are going to the polls to decide the political fate of prime minister benjamin netanyahu.

polls show a tight race. in a last ditch effort to appeal to his right wing base netanyahu reiterated his pledge to prevent the establishment of a palestinian state. apple in talks and with program to offer a small bundle of tv net works. the "wall street journal" says the service would have 25 channels and be available across all devices. apple is looking to price the new service at $40 a month and launch in september. sotheby's teaming up with ebay to launch a new online auction plats form. the first auctions will begin on april 1st with a new york themed sale which will include 13 letters from the facade of the old yankee stadium. in 2014 sotheby's reportedly saw a 25% rise in online bidding. oprah's holding an auction, contents of her condo up for bid on april 25th, more than 500 items up for sale including art, furniture, and clothing. the proceeds will benefit win

friday's south african school for girls. that's your cnbc news update at this hour. back to you guys. yesterday's rally has turned into a loss down 142 points on the dow. let's get a market update now with bob pisani on the floor of the new york stock exchange. >> hello. important thing today is can't put together any string of up or down days now. look at s&p 500, very choppy trading in the month of march. mostly to the downside at least on europe -- the u.s. side of things. s&p 500, not far from the lows of the day. right now led down by energy and material stocks 2-1 declining to advancing stocks. the big economic news story today, of course the housing numbers. february housing starts well below expectations at 897,000. while most appears to be due to the weather, the northeast and the midwest, i want to see what

happens in the month of march to convince me about that. overall, modest declines in big housing names, everything is down fractionally. i would not call this a severe response given how greatly disappointing that number was overall. energy's the other big story. of course see west texas intermediate at new lows here. once again, today, we are seeing energy stocks down. remember we saw this yesterday and then in midmorning we saw energy turn around even though it wasn't much of a rally in the underlying commodity itself. i'm going to watch to see if we get that turnaround. exxon the first big one that turn around late yesterday. we'll see if that happens today. look at xle, energy etf, nearing new lows once again for that. we will see if we can bounce like we did yesterday. a lot of attempts a lot, including a big one at the end of january and beginning of february to buy etfs around

this. not a particularly successful trade. retailers, some of the smaller retailers lower today, bondton's lower, aeropostale, ubs did cut the price car tet at aeropostale. one big cap, target which has had a terrific run overall. that stock, as you can see, up fractionally today. that is historic high for target. thanks for running us through the movers bob pisani. part one of the fed's two-day policy meeting kicking off today. markets in the red. the dow, once again, negative for the year. it's down 130 points right now. the euro's creeping higher against the dollar notching its first run of gains after the monster rally for the greenback. will the fed lose patience, the wore and open the door for higher interest rates.

>> drew everyone most people expect the word "patient" to be dropped. i think the bigger question is how, if at all, will janet yellen and the fed address what's happened with the u.s. dollar? >> well i don't necessarily think they have to. unless the fed is willing to restart quantitative easing and ease again nothing they can do about the dollar because other central banks will ease if the fed's not willing to, right? think -- >> can they just allude to it? the fed will send a powerful message, even if they just put it in statement or if she addresses it in the q and a, won't she? >> look back at 1998 they didn't talk about it. they weren't going to talk about it during the asian financial crisis i don't know when they would have it's important to note, whether the fed hikes rates and everyone else cuts the result's going to be the same. the only question for the fed to ask is where they want to end up after all of this has run its course. they also have to bear in mind the dollar's actually being

somewhat offset by oil, right? decline in oil is helping the u.s. economy rising dollar probably a little bit. on net it a rough wash. >> jennifer how do you think the market specifically the fixed income market currencies and rates, are set up for what's going to be announced tomorrow? >> actually i think the market might be a bit expecting a bit too dovish of comments coming out of the fomc meeting this week. we believe that the dollar won't be addressed in the statement. it will likely be part of the q&a, as expected but we believe they're going to downplay the dollar strength given of course some of the relief from oil and also you know at the end of the day the dollar's the traernryeasury's responsibility not the fed. we think the fed will be for positive on the economic outlook. yellen set this up in her humphrey hawkins testimony,

removing "patient," moving to reasonably confident that inflation will reach their 2% target. i think the market how far, is perhaps expecting the committee to be more dovish. that could be a bit of a shock to the market tomorrow. >> all right. drew what about that economic outlook? you think it's just the weather, the cold weather, that's leading to all of these data misses? >> certainly. i don't expect the fed to focus on it. janet yellen doesn't care whether or not i had a back ache from shoveling, right? if you couldn't get somewhere to buy the thing, you couldn't buy it. you couldn't break ground on the house, you couldn't have a housing start. permits went up by 3%. clearly firms are preparing to do things. it's just they weren't able to get them done. you know the problem for the fed of course is that this will probably move into march as well. so a lot of the data for q1 is all weather messed up and they'll have to look past that and i think they will. the same that that they'll combine the dollar and oil

impacts and look past both of those. >> drew you raise the more important question where they end up having gone through this. where do you think they end up? >> i think once the fed hikes they're going to hike a couple of times in a row and not going to be in this on again/off again scenario. from a fed perspective, two pieces of information, market impact, real economy impact which takes 6 to 9 months. buying yourself six weeks makes no sense. >> don't you look at yl janet yellen and think every bone in her body is to be possibly dovish as she can be. last couple of appearances not the case but until that case even bent over backwards. >> there's a difference between doing it where we were at and where we are now. i would point out in her past iterations in the fed, she was

not ats dovish and janet yellen adjusts to the leadership role. it will be different from anything we've seen before out of her. >> jennifer, you're shaking your head and nodding your head. >> i don't believe that we can ultimately put yellen in the dovish bucket. she's a pragmatic chair and she's been gradually moving towards a centrist position for well over a year now. so again, i think that the fed, unlike previous cycles i think the fed's going to be level early to the initial rate hike and a slow path as opposed to normal fed, normalization which would be late to the game and quickly raising rates. so i agree that in will be a couple of back-to-back increases, expecting 75 basis points best case before the end of the year. >> interesting 24 to 48 hours.

thank you both for joining us on the fed. let's bring in the additional wisdom of steve liesman, senior economics reporter exclusive reports of the cnbc fed survey. steve? >> simon, let's me put all of this discussion about the fed in context of the markets. what our panel of 38 respondents, economists money managers and analysts see is an environment of rising interest rates and muted stock market gains. let's talk about the s&p 500 and outlook of the panel. 2081 the close yesterday. by june if you zoom in you see it going down that's the outlook. until it comes by the end of the year, 5% gain over that period of time. next year slight gains. 2247 for a total gain over the two-year or year and something period of about 8%. muted stock gains. let's show you interest rate environment seen by the panel. what you see here 2.14.

by the end of the year up 2.6 from the current level of 2.08. what is 2016 look like? you can see those interest rates coming up again, 3%. over 3% on the ten-year by the end of 1016. take a look where the panel sees the fed funds market going. 25 basis points. gradually creeping up to 3%. the end of rate hikes in this psyching. some commentaries about the markets from our pant participants. europe's negative interest rates are awesome and powerful force. market agents underestimate how much they encourage rising asset prices. but lynn points out, the fed may seek a smooth and slow exit for monetary ease stock and bond markets initially will bolt for the door. on the other side a lot of contradictory commentary scott wrenn, it will take the fed years to normalize the rates.

the cyclical bull market still has room to run april lot of divergent opinions about the federal reserve, the im pack on the economy, interest rates and stocks and that's why you're seeing all of this volatility up 300 one day, down 150. could be a visit from the ghost of fed interest rate hikes future today. >> triple digit moves in seven of the past eight sessions. steve liesman. like goldman sachs getting into the world of shadow banking. later, kevin o'leary are weigh in on what a web tv service from apple could mean from the media industry. barbara just bought a bike. she wrote a tweet about it. you can't learn much from that. but take data from millions of tweets combine that with your company's supply chain and sales data. apply ibm analytics and expertise, and all of a sudden, you can learn which bikes to build

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♪ have a look at utility sector. the only major s&p group that is up on this down day. dom chu at hq with more. >> by a quarter of a percent. one that goes really in opposite directions here in terms of the way the interest rates move. so it's a down day for the markets overall but one that little sliver of green there is holding up for utilities. among the leaders today, nrg energy and aes corporation and ameren, some sectors in focus as we head towards day one. and day two of the fed interest rate meeting.

back over to you. >> with an ipo expected to price tonight, goldman sachs is highlighting the role of the shadow banking system in the economy. mary thompson has more on that. >> you know since the financial crisis banks have been dialing down on lending to a certain part of the economy because of steep capital requirements in place for riskier loans. this is fueling rise of the shadower of unregulated banking system. goldman sachs taking a baby step with the goldman sachs bdc business development corporation. bdc's provided credit to low rated middle market firms. goldman's bdc expected to price between 20 and 21 a share, 6 million shares in 900,000 share overallotment trade under gsbd. now goldman sachs declined to comment but a lawyer says other banks are keeping an eye on the ipo to see if it's a way to provide funding without making

outright loan that carry hefty requirements. it doesn't require a bank set aside additional capital. goldman, according to a filing will hold 20% stake in the firm investing alongside its clients benefitting from capital appreciation in the high dividends bdc is expected to pay out, as required to distribute 90% of its income. for goldman a small investment so any risk is reputational than financial. if it underperforms, according to the analyst. goldman asset management arm does face a tough market right no bdcs with competition from lenders and asset quality of bdcs at low level. so wall street will be watching. >> thank you so much. over to the cme. collect in with rick santelli and get the santelli exchange. >> good morning, carl. happy first of two-day fed meeting. i'd like to welcome our special guest, former fed governor from

'01 to '06 mark olson. thank you for taking time this fed cycle. >> thank you very much for inviting me. >> listen, you know last night i was doing research and national bureau of economic research dictates there's been 11 business cycles since the end of world war ii going to 2009 and out of the 11 cycles broke it down roughly 58 months of expansion, 11 months of contraction, each business cycle shy of 70 months. is our fed on borrowed time with regard to the unbelievably large amount of accommodation that's been in the system basically since 2008? >> excellent question. we've never been here before. we're in uncharted territory. we have never been in an environment where we've had an extended period of expansion and yet the fed very much in a mode of providing stimulus in the economy. so we've got two things we need to worry about.

one the size of the balance sheet and the other direction of interest rates. so it's time to start making a move and start making some adjustments. and the first thing i think is the signal that will come today. i expect the word "patience" might be dropped the key, what will it be replaced with? >> i see. very excellent point. it might be replaced with another word that would borrow some time. i guess -- >> i think my guess is that it will be a sinynonym of flexible. >> the debate on the forum, there's not a lot of ph.d.s on the trading floor, and i don't mean to dismiss those who have or haven't, but the discussion is in-depth regarding misses opportunities when the economy was doing pretty good in 2011 or 2012. now rushing to remove accommodation at a time when many believe the worst time

considering direction of other central banks. so what happens really bugging the fed to do it right now? >> you've got the dual mandate. remember, you've got one segment of it jobs that are moving exactly in the right direction and giving us a sense the economy's on track which i believe it is. but remember from the last statement they said the near term inflation is down. and the 2% inflation target is still very important to them. and try to tighten when inflation is still in a negative mode or even flat will be a very difficult thing for i think the fomc to do. remember, it is the role of the fed, monetary policy to take away the punch bowl when we're getting started. that was gone long ago. so now what do you do? when we still have either a flat or negative inflation, that's a conundrum. >> i see. and in the final half a minute that we have sir, there is now

debate that some of the recent movement in the european markets is because many in the european zone are questioning timing of the fed, questioning whether the removal will happen or the normalization will happen in 2015. so yes or no do you think there's a rate hike by the u.s. central bank this year? >> yes. definitely a rate hike. >> awesome. >> and definitely some contraction of the balance sheet. >> excellent. mark thank you for being concise. i like one word answers to direct questions. look forward to talking to you the next fed meeting. simon. >> back to you. >> my pleasure. look forward to it. >> i've been googling here some of the sin know nism nisms for flexible, soft springy, spongy could be an interesting meeting. up next crude oil down for the sixth day in a row. how low will it go? we'll take you live to the nymex when "squawk on the street" comes right back. .

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. you can see there markets slipping today in trading. conoco phillips trades slipping after the company announced a three-year plan to cut capital spending to $11.5 billion from a prior $16 billion level. under the new plan the company expects spending on major products to decline while spending on certain drilling projects to increase does expect lower and more volatile oil prices in the foreseeable future. back over to you. >> all right. speaking of oil prices, thanks, dom, we are looking at wti crude oil back above $43 a barrel barely. bertha coombs is at the nymex with more. >> good morning. the thing that traders are talking about, we have seen rig counts come down you have seen companies like conoco and others saying they are not going to expand on their capital expenditures, but production is still high. so really, to find stability in prices in oil we need to see production start coming down particularly here in the u.s.

this afternoon we're going to be getting the inventory numbers from the american petroleum institute and the government inventory numbers tomorrow so that is now the focus. seasonally this is when we start to see a bit of a turn. traders are expecting tomorrow we'll see another big build, but as we get towards later march, you start seeing more of the refiners come on-line, more of the refiners start to build up supplies and pump up their refining for the summer driving season. seasonally that could also add a bit of a floor. we are likely to make a run at $40 at wti. will we stop in the high 30s. that's the big question. another run at $50 when it comes to brent prices. as oil and energy prices continue to move lower today, we are seeing a little bit of a bounce on gold and silver as they touch a four-month low ahead of the fomc meeting, but

it's really very weak as far as the move that we are seeing on the gold futures, guys a lot of cautiousness there even as we are seeing the dollar lower for a second day. back to you. >> all right. thanks for running us through the action at the nymex. energy and materials by the way, the two worst performing groups right now, op the s&p. let's send it over to jon fortt with a look at what's coming up next on "squawk alley." >> yeah well where there's disruption there's often opportunity. a look at apple tv. the over the top service that the company is ready to roll out. will it have a big impact. rack space's ceo thinks the cloud is maturing and he can make money not competing on price. we'll dig into that. one of the creators of google wallet will join us to talk about the creating landscape of payments in mobile all coming up on "squawk alley."

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for 10 years with startup ny business incubators that partner companies with universities, and venture capital funding for high growth industries. see how new york can grow your business and create jobs. visit ny.gov/business another day and another triple digit move for the dow jones industrial average. today it's lower. yesterday it was higher. the dow down about 134 points. the s&p 500 down half a percent. as we can see it's an outsized move lower for the dow jones industrial average. the nasdaq is holding in there, down 0.2%. a lot has to do with correlations with other assets

classes. oil dropping below 43s a barrel. it's now just above that. and, of course, the dollar which is actually weakening ahead of the fed meeting and the announcement tomorrow. >> yep. fomc front and center waiting for janet yellen the statement and news conference tomorrow, of course. in the meantime let's send it over to "squawk alley" where it is tuesday. >> thanks guys. it is 8:00 a.m. at pinterest headquarters in san francisco, california 11:00 a.m. here on wall street and "squawk alley" is live. ♪ ♪ happy st. patrick's day. jo