g your money home and invest it into something domestically that's a really hard policy to do because it a company has a good opportunity in america, they will simply do it. >> right. thank you. >> good to be here. >> preacher man. >> yes, he was. >> that's how you get on the pulpit once in a while. it's good occasionally. >> thank you, paul. come back. that does it. have a great weekend, everybody. time for "squawk on the street." ♪ don't believe me just watch♪ good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street" i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer at the new york stock exchange. david faber is off this week. welcome to the first day of spring. though we will have snow in the northeast stocks looking to build on a positive week overall. premarket sharply higher. earnings from nike darden tiffany, more. oil around the mid 40s. baker hughes' rig count later today.

ten year 1.95. the markets after a week full of the fed, earnings and currency moves futures pointing to solid gains to end on a positive note. just do it shares of nike jumping in the premarket after the retailer beat estimates. however, it did warn strength in the dollar could hurt its current quarter. the dollar it took a toll on tiffany. shares of the goods maker down in the premarket after its first sales decline in five years. first up futures up sharply, as you saw. we'll get ready to wrap up another volatile week on wall street. break even on the s&p for the week jim. 2053, well above that for the moment. >> there is so much excitement today and it's all positive with the exception of a real estate investment trust. i mean i look at biogen all week i've been saying buy biogen. this is robust data alzheimer's. nike call was a clinic how to -- well orchestrated documentary of how you 0 it with sustainable profit sustainable growth in

profits. mentioned multiple times. carl it's the earnings in a backdrop behind backdrop post janet yellen it's the earnings and earnings are good right now. >> biotech. you mentioned biogen. the drug bbibo-37 conference in nice gave data, cognition ratings, 71% reduction in decline. that's good news. >> yes. this is robust impressive terrific data. great unmet need in medical right now. and so the stock can go higher. i just have been telling people it started low 400s. will it go higher today than 30? probably, because this is remarkable. biogen first announced when the stock was 313. it not like you're early. but it is amazing data. >> we'll talk to meg tirrell about this in a moment. all over the story. yesterday you said isis pharmaceutical, for example. feel free to take some profits. >> i've been recommending isis

the stock dropped, one drug that wasn't perfect, they have 13. it went from 71 to 63. twitter is an interesting thing because everybody buys at exact worst moment according to twitter which is moment you told them, so to speak, surrender. it went well above where i said to buy. i've been recommending it since 40. and the stock's up on the same news over and over and that make me unkofrtscomfortable regeneron is up. saying listen everything's going to be great with the date tap data comes out, stock goes up 80. this didn't used to happen carl. you used to have the data come out, people sell. now data comes out, people buy. >> there's a ton of m&a, earnings in last quarter up 34 for the sector s&p up 4. if you don't sell now, when do you sell? >> forwards are critical.

in the same one, inflation was fleeting. you could have shorted peabody freeport. she was doing those as a barbell trade, shorting those. remarkable run for both the high-growth companies, because inflation's -- you buy that it's remarkable run for cyclicals, which are down much every day. a stock picker's dream to have no inflation and have no commodity pricing pressure because everybody can report a good number that uses commodities and almost everybody uses them. >> we'll talk more in a moment. nike though up sharply in the premarket. dow component posted better than expected quarterly earnings. if you take out currency fluctuations orders for apparel scheduled for delivery between march and july. strong dollar would take a toll on the current quarter. in fact accounting for all of that, orders up two. a year ago, orders up 12. >> futures orders fabulous that's what we want to look at. china was great.

look, i'm unabashed fan of mark parker. mark park's a little different from kevin plank mark parker this is about the athlete. one of the things that i loved about nike and they took the oracle page, mark parker's a cool guy. or goenian, they've got some game. he said we're going to do energy skon stant currency. you figure out the currency. i love that. you heard how good things were. china, things are great. here's a big takeaway. every poor country in europe numbers unbelievable. and the kobe shoe. michael jordan i guess michael jordan, 60 years from now -- they will think it's like jordan river but still buying. the most impressive brand in the world, the jordan and it never stops. >> that's true. >> i hope michael jordan's a multibillionaire multibillionaire. mikey nike's made billions off of him. the conference call, it was like

a disney movie. it was like it is so great. everybody feels -- your singing. you're singing nike "frozen." >> ua getting a little love this morning. lulu's on deck soon. >> uab got love too. >> yes. >> ua look it's so -- kevin plank set his company up as a fitness company, he has map my fitness, 135 million subscribe. nike athletic company. if you feel if you're younger, you want to be an athlete, you want to go nike. if you are someone who want to be fit you want to go under armour these are both big universe but was one may resonate more in china than we think. china wants to be pro athletes. american athlete like we're not proathletes. >> what a force race. >> if someone said if i put a gun to your head which do you choose? i said first, take the gun away from my head.

right now at this moment it is a push. it really is. >> you know what? that's an amazing compliment to plank. i'm not taking sides, but you're talking about a company that's come along in a short period of time and given the biggest owner of an industry a run for their money. >> adidas it's a land grab. adidas turned into a terrible company. kevin's not even in china yet, just getting started. he opened a huge store in chicago saying stick it nike. should have opened it in oregon. that's probably next. he's probably going to open up an under armour across from nike headquarters. >> opened up on michigan avenue in chicago. >> that's jordan country. that's jordan country. kevin plank is great. mark parker is a very quiet king okay? he's not -- he's understated. i love him. i have got to tell you, i wanted to do my show -- maybe one day from nike.

nike's a juggernaut. it's a testament to kevin plank. people doubted kevin. that's a big mistake. nike the great senior growth start of our era other than starbucks. >> both headquarters in the northwest united states. >> you know people who are meant to be seen like they're not competitive, all of the guys in seattle and all of the guys in oregon they're the most competitive guys in the world. they're massed by that quiet like listen we listen we're mindful. they're all nindmindful. be careful of the mindful. be careful of the people in the present. >> tiffany shares falling in premarket. luxury goods maker reported sale decline for the first tim in five years hurt by the stronger dollar. comps weaker than expected especially japan, sales down 10% for the current quarter. analysts minus one. eps down 30 analysts minus 6. >> they changed the tax structure in japan, it's

negative for tiffany for retail. tiffany classic camp of what doesn't work here versus darden, that we'll get to. you can pump -- say you're pumping and it was cost you 80 you had an expedition, now it's 60. you cannot take additional $20 and buy a tiffany diamond ring. you can buy a higher beer bigger beer more expensive beer but you're not going to buy tiffany's the least levered of any company in retail it just doesn't work. tiffany's got a lot of issues. it's a well-run company but it's not a winner if an environment where people have more money and can buy more stuff at ross stores. >> interesting point. two year ago the story was luxury is what's working. >> now that's -- nordstrom has shifted enough with rac. rac is very good by the way. nordstrom pivoted and is less -- more able to lever gasoline. i mention that because the tiffany brands so to speak.

they happen to be across the way from each other in the mall that i go to. but tiffany's not a levered play on the middle class having more income after a tax of oil. interesting. i didn't see the numbers for the flagship store but i've got to imagine with the dollar you're getting fewer foreigners coming here to shop. >> another big issue. that's a reason why macy's stalled. the flagship macy's just doesn't have it because of the tourists. if sax were public we'd see they don't have it. >> biogen getting a lift on the alzheimer's drug. good morning, meg. >> good morning. that's right. a really exciting morning for biogen and the medical community today with the positive data in alzheimer's disease. such anticipation of this report leading into this when we saw initial positive data in december, the stock has risen 40% since then. after seeing data they met and exceeded high expectations

showing not only reduction in the plaques in the brain but a slowing of the cognitive declines in alzheimer's. very strong signals on all of those. people very very excited. analysts notes saying there are thousand of doctors in attendance at the meeting in nice reaction interests cautiously optimistic to euphoric, this is a real game changer. now of course, safety's very important here. they did see side effects particularly the higher doses. a phase iii study is very very important, obviously, to determine the safety effects. and also bear out the signals of efficacy in a larger trial. biogen said on the back of the data planning to move from phase i what this was to phase iii, enrolling patients in that trial this year. a few analysts raising their price targets on biogen today, looking at cowan, baird, citi. baird up to 498, count to 500, citi up to 512.

people excited here. this is because alzheimer's is a horrible disease nothing on the market for. 5 million americans have the disease now. that could triple to 2015. so what we're hearing from analysts after the fade iii trial, this drug could get to the market by 2018. >> just amazing. thank you. >> meg's all over this. interesting, if you've been listening to meg, you knew the data would be great. data comes out, it's terrifically great, $15 billion drug, maybe $20 billion drug. maybe the biggest drug of all time. i believe the others will come up with something, that's going to surprise you. other drug companies working on a similar compound. right now it's game on. and the fact that -- i cannot stress how important it is what meg said phase i to phase iii. a forward-thinking fda. no one's willing to say that. but the peggy hamburg fda, she's retiring, they'll go for this. they will like say, yes, you

know what? we have nothing for alzheimer's let's give it a run. the stock could be up 100 points in the next couple of days. >> keep our eye on that. meg, thanks so much. meg tirrell. when we come back outspoken richard fisher in a live interview one day after retiring as the president of the dallas fed. we'll hear from him. first, continuing signs of a turnaround at darden thanks to upbeat results. what happened at olive garden. haven't gotten to kbh as well. futures earhere nice action in the premarket. dax above 12k. back in a moment. [ male announcer ] your love for trading never stops. so open an account with schwab. and when a market move affects, say a cloud computing stock you're holding, we can help you decide what to do. with tools that help you see how market activity is affecting your positions. so when the time comes to decide whether to scale in or scale out... you can make your move wherever you are. and start working on your next big idea. ♪ ♪

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darden poised to open at new 52-week high. results above street estimates. olive garden posting second straight quarter of comp store growth. same-store sales at long up for the year. previously seen 2.25. >> the former ceo, had come on "mad money"iers ago, the single most determinant is not the price of food beer it's gasoline. right in the sweet spot. this is in the sweet spot right now. talking about deploying capital, evaluating real estate options. the call's going well. what i like is when you have i portfolio, and every single one is going up you can say, that's because of gasoline but you

mentioned longhorn steakhouse, 5.4. we were waiting for that to take off. capital grill, 6.1. really strong numbers and i think that darden can go higher. >> olive garden up 2. 2. got to imagine what would happen if red lobster, probably the laggard. >> red lobster's the opposite, peel feel it's a food chain stock. you're in the food chain you don't want to be in it. chipotle's got catch up here. i don't mind buying chipotle. >> if oil and energy is sort of forming some sort of bottom here does this have more of a run on the low gas price dynamic? >> i think it has a run because we're not going to get a u-turn. we see, every time oil goes to 50, market's flooded with oil, you can keep gasoline around 2 bucks a fantastic quarter of good comparisons for darden. again, it's not like they haven't run. i mean everything that -- but one of the things that's

happened in the market if it's run, it can still run, which is what's so mystifying to people. how can starbucks run and the same news we thought was going to be good and it runs in how can biogen run and we get the news that we thought was going to happen and it runs? darden can go higher. >> i did a presentation a slide about restaurants, jack sonic, denny's. >> numbers are amazing. >> ihop. >> ihop dine equity fantastic numbers. popeye's one that's down 10% from its high. take a look at that. but yeah this is -- it's funny, we all want to outthink this business. i had guests on "mad money" last night, they all want to outthink it. gasoline, low, go buy restaurants. go buy cracker barrel. when you go to cracker barrel and have that nice slice of american cheese on top of ice cream on top of cheesecake or apple pie, and after you take all of the lipper to you can in the world, you say, i can -- i'll have another dessert. you have two desserts you dough

to cracker barrel after all of that. >> 54% in a year. >> people can have three desserts and buy a rocking chair. >> you think the story is removing otis from the equation. >> it's about people have more and they got rid of red lobster, obviously. you know look if he were there, it's a shame, i think everything's going their way now, everything. i like longhorn. i like capital grill. i'm not a big yard house guy, bahama breeze guy. but ba ham mazeut bahama breeze should do well. >> losing clarence otis and don thompson at a time where the tailwinds were just starting to come in for both companies. that's an unfortunate dynamic. >> yes it is. glad you pointed that out because those are the ones that -- they're going to finally have the tailwinds, headwind go to tailwind. would have been niced to see

what would happen. >> cramer's "mad dash" as we count down to the opening bell. premarket on this friday. first day of spring. i'm sure you've seen images of the solar eclipse which was visible from the other sifd the planet. back in a moment. opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances.

♪ ♪ just about 7:30 until the opening bell on friday. "mad dash" with cramer here. amazon has gotten an experimental airworthiness certificate. >> we shouldn't be buying amazon

off the drones but i want to point out, this and the next story examples of what you'd be hard pressed to think the obama regulartory scheme would be open minded but they are. a pro-drone, maybe one day, there's a lot of -- a lot of catches how to use them. one thing is certain, amazon is pressing the limits and the government's saying press them. that's fine. >> basically going to get permission. they have gotten permission to start testing these for delivery in rural, private land in washington state. >> and that means that yes, they can be able to go warehouse to your house. remember yesterday starbucks did paper mate able to deliver. i thought amazon might be a natural to deliver starbucks. a lot of companies thinking of great logistic ways to get your product to you. very modern age, encouraging. >> not actionable short term. >> this is such a robust market.

somebody could buy amazon and say i like this drone story. buy amazon because of earnings which you don't have plup of. it's a cold stock. people didn't go crazy for what elon musk had to say, which was interesting. self-driving car, it's another thing people like. yes. a solved problem. >> a solved problem. i love it. it's great. great to have that level of conviction. >> meantime front page of "the journal," ftc a couple years ago almost sued google. >> amazing that -- this is not a well acting stock but the classic head and shoulders here reverse head and shoulders. they overruled. again, pro-business ftc. the staffs are had a good call i think, which is google was hurting the verticals i mentioned yelp there will yelp come back? it doesn't matter. it's a done deal. eight document that leaked. google is grandfathered in. >> the argument the fix is that

google itself was recommending would work faster than any other relief. >> pro-consumer to rule in favor of google. that was expediency because google can stifle other guys because google's so powerful. anyone involved in a dotcom business knows that google you have to bow down to google. >> explain facebook this week. 82 and change yesterday, breakout above 80. >> a lot of technicians said if it can get above that it would matter. the facebook payment thing is very important because you know a lot of people -- a -- facebook is where you are on your hand held. it's natural to send money. everything that facebook adds is going to be addedive. and their ads are not intrusive. zuckerberg did a great thing. this company's selling at 31 times 2017 earnings which is not that bad because we are getting close to 2017. this is very exciting growth versus alibaba which growth rates coming down. this may have accelerating

revenue growth. twitter is doing better. >> a little bit. >> hey, remember i adopted a very -- the malice toward none. sometimes i get that wrong. we'll get the opening bell in a couple of minutes. female announcer: you're on the right track to save big during sleep train's triple choice sale. for a limited time you can choose up to 48 months interest-free financing on a huge selection of tempur-pedic models. or choose to save hundreds on simmons beautyrest mattress sets. you can even choose $300 in free gifts with sleep train's most popular stearns & foster mattresses. the triple choice sale ends soon at sleep train. ♪ sleep train ♪ your ticket to a better night's sleep ♪

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"squawk on the street," live from the financial capital of the world. we'll get the opening bell on this friday in 60 seconds. a lot going on. what a week it's been. best week for the ur floweuro in 18 months. look like open above nasdaq 5000. >> very important moment because you've got typically when you have the futures up as much i would tell you, maybe sell some. i don't know. see how this plays out. once you have the big bad event behind it a lot of pent-up money. the period for the next month, 13 out of 15 times, technician on the other day, it's been up. this is the bright spot of the year. right now, for the next three weeks, best time every year. >> remember i told you, st. paddy's day had that upward herbalife bias and it was wrong

this year. march 23rd the other one we'd like 80 90% upward bias over ten years. >> spring rally, more important than summer rally. >> the opening bell. decent breadth at the open on the s&p. down here at the big board, hatteras financial doing the honors and at the nasdaq athlete ally nonprofit, aiming to foster inclusive sports communities. >> 95.50, cash and stock, withdraw april 1st if nothing happens, not nominate to the board. >> the casino license, an incredible statement. you don't see that simon properties, everybody knows they are the masters. you either go with them or it's their way or not even the highway. it's nothing. their way or a back road. i think it's a great come been

nation. >> top three gainers, biogen nike, darden. >> those are the stories of the -- biogen could be the story of the year if they have this. again, remember regeneron had haddenhad haddenhad unbelievable formation. don't believe the other drug companies are being idle. everybody wants to solve alzheimer's. they're in pole position definitely. >> we were commenting during the commercial break i don't know if we can get intraday of crude, but it's gone on its hair in the last i would say half hour or so. you can see delta, all of the usual suspects are losing ground as a result. i wonder what's go on there. >> oil trades technically here. if it stays -- two fantastic oil people involved in the last few weeks, rich kinder from kinder morgan and mr. meares from magellan midstream, which by the way one of the finest pipeline

companies in the world. they say 42 43, that is where real buyers come. it like everybody else, financial buyer, put it in the tang, sell futures. that's the level. by the way, this is the second time that that level has held. second time. >> i'm being told april, expires today. and may, west texas up 3%. well, i have to tell you that there's a great piece about how brent is no longer going to be relevant. it's the golden age of refineries. you've got all sort of oil competing to be made by the refiners. refiners are pitting guys of mexico against gulf of mexico and the winner's the consumer. >> yes. we'll get rig count, baker hughes 1:00 p.m. >> boone pickens the other day on "squawk," bullish on next year. i think oil stays here a bit because of the production is insane right now. >> i know you've been rooting

for housing. kbh did have a solid beat orders up 24. that's a 7% gain. >> kbh, disappointed on top of lennar last time. lennar sold off at then of the day. i thought lennar's conference call absolutely perfect. stock is inexpensive. talking about the factor of credit but getting easier. lennar had a monster quarter and gave back it's a tough thing to own kb homes. this time kb homes delivered. >> only thing people quibbling with margins came down as markdowns continued. >> it's interesting, they're in a couple of markets where i don't know why they have to mark down. higher end's very good. kb, the stuff that goes into a home is coming down though these guys are not talking about marriage ng expansion. we all know that. owens corning, recommending the stock. i'm a little unsure. while i think the management's very nice there, they have not been able to capitalize.

asphalt prices are down. it's a cold winter. people redo the roofs. that's a very expense inprocess. >> starbucks all-time hype another all-time high today. goldman ups target to 108. the eight-page spread. "usa today," entitled "race together." take a look. it goes on and on. charts about the path of progress. >> interesting. >> there's a quiz on the back. >> larry cramer is a fabulous -- i've known larry for 25 years, a great friend editor of usa. very thoughtful. those who think this is not a thoughtful -- they think howard schultz is trying to capitalize. this is about getting a dialogue going. it's voluntary. a lot of people felt my interview was too feisty. no, this is -- this is a hot button issue. but i think that people read this, they will recognize that

this is all of a piece to get people more knowledgeable about race about what people may -- who are not necessarily your color may think. i don't think there's anything wrong with that. people are -- a lot of people are skeptical. read that section, you'll say, i learned a lot and that's -- maybe that's what this is about, it's about learning. >> i want to take your temperature on tesla, because of this upgrade yesterday to the model s. basically, musk argues that the only way you're going to run out of charge is if you intentionally try to run out of charge. >> i think that this is one where unlike biogen it was hard to be able to equal the hype. right now i think that there's just too many articles about other cars that are coming out that charge and china's not been involved and they've -- they have to raise money eventually. we're concerned when that's going to happen. it's not a clean cold story now. when i say cold not is based --

not bound by four walls of earnings per share. nike, still playing by the rules have to deliver the numbers. starbucks still playing by the rules. musk not playing by the rules, press release per share. people are getting uncomfortable with that. >> interesting. finally, you, a couple days ago, making the argument the market is tiring people out, right? >> up down up down. >> two steps forward, two steps back. did we turn a corner after the fed made their move and the markets reacted like this. >> people every time it was up felt like selling because they removed the word "patient." they misinterpret janet yellen. janet yellen's saying when it's time it's time. nothing the matter with that. >> s&p 2100. obviously the nasdaq back above 5000 at 5029. home depot up slightly, up over 10% year-to-date. >> kelly evans, good interview.

>> on closing bell yesterday, talked about the company's growth. take a listen. >> we have benefited obviously from the buyback program as well as increase in our dividend which we have a commitment to as well. the majority of our growth in our stock has been driven by performance and by the fact that we've had great innovative product in our 400,000 or so associates, take it drive it into the marketplace. >> the company had its best earnings beat in 15 years. closing in on coke is the big of the market cap out of atlanta. >> incredible. the previous ceo, this is to me like jim senegal and craig jelenak. who thought you could transition to a new unbelievable ceo. what's kelly evans doing in vegas? i see the home depot sign, she's doing her job. that's where you should be. >> stock hasn't really tested its 50-day since october.

>> i had -- my charitable trust -- we go back and forth, lowe's is doing well too. the greatest gasoline stories and the dotcom, wrong to call it dot, but fantastic. i don't foe whether you've been to home depot lately i always say i get my flats at home depot. i behalf at home depot, and half at union square i buy the varieties. one year they didn't he sent me seeds. >> seeds. >> i love that guy! that guy has such game. looks like he's got game too. >> the market has a little bit of game this morning. mary thompson on the floor. >> big volume on this quadruple witching friday. volume here at new york stock exchange 334 million. you don't see volumes like that on a typical day until 11:00 or 12:00. ahead of schedule because of the quadruple witch on friday.

upward trend in place. nasdaq above 5000. s&p above 2100. dow up triple digits. weakness in the vix. treasury yields are low somewhere so too is the dollar. that's a continuing theme in the markets. as we continue to see the unwinding of that long dollar short euro trade in the wake of the fed statement this week weep come into an upsession on wall street, broad-based gain on the heels of strength in europe. speaking of the strong dollar stocks impacted. you heard jim and carl talking about them nike saying that sales were impacted in the last quarter by the stronger dollar. also forecasting earnings from its margins as well as revenue, impacted in the year ahead. nevertheless, the stock moving higher as a company made the case it will continue to take share, and investors are taking that to heart. tiffany earnings a penny ahead of expectations but the strong dollar impacting revenue and expecting to impact revenue and

profits in the current quarter. and a.k. steel, forecasting wider than expected loss. two reasons, the stronger dollar but weakness in steel prices. checking energy oil right now at 46.5051. 46 hadn't 46.50. if you see a strong break above that you could see crude oil continuing to move higher up to 50 according to some. the gains we're seeing now up 96 cents for crude being passed along to energy stocks which is an area of strength this morning. of course earnings from home builder kb homes today on the heels of lennar's better than expected results. take a look and see how the home building index is doing. it's higher. one would expect up 1.7% april look at the shares again, kb homes with better than expected results. margins are slightly impacted by higher land costs, as well as

discounting, as carl mentioned. another group looking healthy in today's session. kb homes. take a look at that up 6.5%. air gas, a company warning weak organic sales weighing on its stock. sales down 3.7%. the dow is up 114, looking strong. >> mary, talk to you soon. let's go uptown collect in with bertha coombs. >> well above 5,000, to a fresh 15-year high. remind you that the all-time high close was 5048. we are within shouting distance of that. and it's clearly being driven by the biotechs. starting at fresh all-time highs, led by biogen with that amazing news on its alzheimer's drug. meg tirrell will have more on that. that's lifting the entire group. you're seeing all-time highs for the likes of regeneron and celgene as well. these are on fire and continue

to be the big momentum drivers with lots of hope for their pipelines. seeing overall the large caps doing fairly well today. apple is higher. that's helping the dow as well now. all-time highs and extended gains for starbucks, also for sky works and urban outfitters but it's not the big caps that have been driving it. the nasdaq itself back to the 5,000 level the nationsdaq around 4460. its all-time high 4704 all-time high close. what's been driving this has been the small caps with the russell 2000 as well opening at a new high today. all of those bioteches in the small cap intech helping to drive things higher. amazon today getting a lift. and being allowed to test drive drone delivery. i don't know if i'm ready for that guys. i can deal with one-hour delivery by bicycle. but i don't know a drone seems

like a little much. >> not sure we have a choice but we'll watch it anyway. >> rural. >> it is rural, for the time being. rick santelli in the bond pits in chicago. rick? >> hi carl. indeed what happened on wednesday in the statement but maybe more the press conference really is putting us back in a mode where more and more question how quickly there will be normalization in the u.s. and of course less question what's going on in europe because it's gone from kind of logistics to operational mode regarding qe. rates are slipping around the globe, no exception. intraday ten. two day might be more relevant. you know we just didn't get close to kind of get back to that 1.95 to 1.98 end yesterday because the psychological pull of 2%'s large. you want to pay attention, kind of use 1.95 as a pivot. february 1st of the ten-year a nice glimpse.

it looks like it's rolling over here. we want to pay close attention whether we close above or below or around 1.93, 1.95. if we look at the spread this is important, take tens minus twos, starting to flatten again after having some steepening. pay attention here. there's implications to draw not only about the economy potentially but also traders are thinking about the fed. if we look overseas two-day of bunds, wow, yes, we did reach 17 basis points. 16 and change is currently the low yield. we'll see exactly where it closes. and if we look at the two day of the euro versus the dollar it explains why i'm looking at dollar index down over a penny. volatility in fx markets, my sources and friends in the fx option pits likes it sending thank-you letters, janet yellen and mario draghi. two-day of the eurodollar, we've

breached 1.08 in terms of valuation. the trade will go back and forth. many traders say never ignore weird, wild prints slightly above 1.10. it was like the crazy day in october with treasuries which made yield of 1.86 and 2.16 so important. that's the same with the 1.10 handle with the euro and the dollar. we told you about the options expiration on crude. jackie deangelis. >> that's right, options expiration for april today off the board. creates volatility. the pricing for may wti, 46.85, a 1.32 pop in the opening session here this morning. and what's happening right now is a little bit of i divergence. some days trade off of crude-specific factors. today a dollar-based move rick santelli talking about the move lower in the dollar. that's why we're seeing a bit of a pop here. also interesting to note i'm looking at december futures,

54.21ing come down from over $60. gives you a sense of what the market is thinking about pricing towards the end of the year. brent prishgs 5ce 55.11. up 69 cents today. what could cause volatility later baker hughes releases rig count numbers. wall street tens to focus on those, not the macro traders. but we could see the action to the downside potentially, as we head into the close. as we've seen when we get to the 2:00 mark in the afternoon, that's when the traders start to come out and square off positions especially on a friday as we're heading into the weekend. back over to you. >> thank you so much. a friend of mine points out crude's jumped on the past three option expirations. >> true. jackie does a great job. just on the biogen and all of those, be careful. i have been saying all week, don't -- when it cops to friday don't buy anymore. regeneron coming off, isis.

people were earlier on these. don't -- if you own some biogen don't keep paying. >> richard fisher once said the fed has given the markets too much ritalin. he's retiring after a decade as president of the dallas fed. a live interview coming up. the dow's up 130. s&p 2103. don't go away.

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which helps you make smarter decisions. there's a new way to work and it's made with ibm. s&p looking on track at least to have gained almost 50 points for the week. you see the dow back above 18k. back above 2100 on the s&p. back above 5000 on the nasdaq. nike above for the first time ever. >> it's really good. once we have the fed out of the way, people are not as bearish about stocks as they were simply because if you have a fed that is going to say, listen we're data dependent, it gives you

the -- it gives you a month to play. this is what happens when they play. >> not the prevailing view for people who thought "patient" would be removed from the language a week ago. two weeks ago. >> janet yellen is not going to do something stupid. they're worried about the overseas. they don't want to say. stanley fischer understands better than anyone in the world. we're lucky to have him. he understood what happened when things went wrong in the '90s. it's his play book she's using. >> stanley fischer, vice chair, speaks monday. we might get amp pliification. >> genius. many studied with him. a great man. >> the teacher to a lot of prominent people that we know. when we come back, "stop trading" with jim. dow up 140 points early session highs here. don't go away.

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bullish. i wanted to point out you can be pro and con about that. affiliated with martin franklin who was jarden and told me that 15 years ago and they deliver. i thought it was great to see someone with real conviction. >> and ambitious. "stop trading." >> we have prta, and i'm going back and forth with ply friend from thestreet.com, i'm not going to endorse it. it's just that the stock's up 13 on phase i data involving parkinson's. it's like alzheimer's, there's nothing. nothing that i think is concrete. my father had parkinson's i'm very interested this. is speculative. be careful. >> you wanted to talk honeywell. >> conviction buy list. dave cody fabulous ceo, getting his due now honeywell favored industrial in america right now by portfolio managers. >> new high. >> number one industrial that people want. >> new high at 105.

interestingly, i saw the president signs executive order to have -- cut down on greenhouse emissions, and big government suppliers like honeywell, ibm ge utx, are going to floej reducepledge to reduce. >> honeywell, 40% of the electricity from buildings. if you take their stuff and put it in you cut down the use dramatically the most important way to get conservation going. dave cote is a conservationist from years back. nice crowning achievement for what he's done. >> put a -- you seem like there's pockets where you're willing to step away. >> i don't like when i see -- remember, i think biogen's a great company, one of the four horsemen of the apocalypse. if you bought the biotechs after a great move you regret. i think they don't trade the way people think. they don't trade in a straight line. they go up they go like that.

caution is a decent thing to say. this is not nike. nike's got greaterning ernern earnings but its be careful. >> what someone knows with a bracket after yesterday. >> sometimes the university of alabama of birmingham does win which means biotech doesn't go up. >> simon's here with a look of what's coming next. >> we'll have the first interview for the retiring dallas fed president, richard fisher live on the program. talk about tiffany's earnings. a strange market, up 2% for the year but can't sustain two consecutive gains this month. what is going on? and consumer discretionary. that and more in the second hour of "squawk on the street." before earning enough cash back from bank of america to help pay for

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♪ i'm walking on sunshine whoa i'm walking on sunshine♪ >> good friday morning. welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen, simon hobbs. closing an up week with up action. several levels retaken, dow 18,000, s&p 21000 and nasdaq 5000. oil helping along with biotech, which continues on a tear.

the road map for the hour. shares of tiffany down here after reporting its first sales decline in five years. >> the heat is really on the greeks in the wake eu leaders summit in brussels. nike does it again with earnings beat but could be headwinds as the company warns about the strength of the dollar and its impact on the current quarter. coming up later on newly retired dallas fed claire richard fisher in an exit interview with rick santelli at the bottom of the hour. marks in the green coming off a wild week for equities and crude seeing a pop. wti up nearly 4%. delighted to welcome to the program blackrock's chief global investment strategist. good morning to you. >> good morning, simon. >> help me out with this market. explain what is going on here because we're now three weeks into march and can't sustain two days of rally in a row. and yet if you look at the fund

inflows last week clearly they're strong and we're pushing up now for a 2% gain on the year what happen do you make of it? >> well i think what's happened this week, we've gone back into an environment in which bad news is treated as good news. the theseis coming into the economy, earnings would carry the market. that has not happened the dollar strength hurt earnings economic numbers disappointing the fastest pace since 2009 but the market's taken a glass is half full approach to this with a notion that the softer data will hold the fed's hand it will get easing monetary policy longer which is why you're seeing a strong rally. >> massive $20 billion of inflows into equities in advance of janet yellen's speaking. watching the sectors move today, you see consumer discretionary ticking higher. obviously, health care is also ticking higher. this is on the year now, of course, energy and utilities are

lower. why are you skeptical of consumer discretionary? >> consumer discretionary, i think, has to deliver. the issues, again, one of the themes coming into the year was that lower oil a rising job market was going to lead to stronger consumption and that hasn't happened. retail sales disappointed three months in a row. despite that this sector has run up. it's outperformed by 4% year-to-date. the valuations of the second highest after health care. if the fundamentals start to turn, then that will be one thing. as of now, investors are buying stocks on hopes for rebound in spending yet to materialize. >> russ another day, we get more 1% plus moves in the currency market. this time it's weaker dollar clearly that's a bullish signal for u.s. stocks. did we underestimate the impact of the weak dollar over the past few years of the bull market and stocks, and can it continue if we are in fact in now a bull market in the u.s. dollar?

>> well i think this is an excellent point. it does illustrate the fact that, look we had a very big tailwind for a number of years. when you look at recent history, nike the latest. today we've seen microsoft, proctor & gamble, go down the list the strong dollar is creating a very big headwind for large u.s. companies. again, if that strong dollar's a function of a more robust domestic economy, you can probably get away with it. the issue is the dollar's been strengthening even as u.s. growth has been decelerating over the past quarter and that's a problem for u.s. companies. >> the follow-up is did janet yellen go far enough to talk down the dollar and is this an inflection point here for both the dollar and stocks or is it just a temporary pause in what will eventually be a better economy, hire rates and the stronger dollar? >> i think that's our view the latter case is the more likely. i think this is a pause for the dollar. reality is positive surprises out of europe. but we still believe this is a year where the u.s. will outgrow

europe and we'll have a divergence in monetary policy between the u.s. and every other central bank that will allow the dollar rally to continue. >> i just find it really lard to believe, russ that janet yellen and the rest of the fomc can sit there like king -- to keep the waters back as massive amounts of funds flow from the eurozone or japan. i mean the search for yield is only going to grow surely that has to push the dollar higher. >> simon, i completely agree. reality is we can talk about low yields, u.s. ten-year's below 2%. the two-year's gone down. if you compare that to yields elsewhere, german bund yields below 20 basis points. one quarter of the european sovern debt market is a yield. 2% looks pretty good if that environment. >> bottom line what is our takeaway to think about this weekend? >> i think the takeaway is we do

think stocks can go higher but accompanied by more volatility. if the dollar strengthens too much, too fast that is going to create a real headwind for u.s. companies. >> good to see you, russ, russ koesterich. speaking of the dollar watching shares of tiffany, down this morning after reporting fourth quarter earnings in line with expectations. luxury retailer also forecasting a 10% decline in sales in the first quarter. and that's what wall street is focused on with the stock down 3%. how are global economic uncertainties weighing on this company? what should you be doing with the stock? let's bring in the senior retail analyst at oppenheimer. the problem with blaming the strong dollar and global economic uncertainty for tiffany, you have nike last night also getting hit by its overseas exposure majority of the sales and still posting underlying growth. is this a tiffany problem or a global macro uncertainty

problem? >> i think it's both. look, the issue for tiffany's, i dug through results this morning, so there's a translation effect. we have seen that happen with nike and other companies. tiffany, the stronger u.s. dollar is impacting foreign tourism spending in the united states. so a number of people come from overseas, to shop at tiffany in the u.s. and this stronger dollar's impacting that. >> so obviously that was a big impact in the forecast. the stock's down 17% in 3 months, 5% for a year. has it been punished enough for what's going beyond its control, whether u.s. or over seas sales. is it chief enough to come in and buy. >> a tough question. i wrote a note say identifying have outperform and look over any length of time i think the stock's inexpensive and well positioned. so long as uncertainty's out there, we don't know where the bottom is with this foreign tourism spending issue i think

the stock continues to suffer. so, i think it stays weak near term but does set up well longer term. >> are there any -- can you extrapolate anything from the other companies in the luxury goods sector that you follow or does tiffany just get inordinately hit by the currency volatility? >> well look this is not -- it's not -- i don't think it's an issue that is necessarily specific to tiffany. if you had luxury in general, if shoppers were traveling overseas to spend money, tiffany's getting hit by that i assume that basically extends throughout the luxury sector. now, tiffany's unique in a bit in just their exposure to the united states. you've got half of their sales in basically the united states and north america, a big store here in new york other markets throughout the u.s. those are the areas that are hit by this foreign tourism spending this year. >> we know that the foreign tourism spending issue is real because if you look in the lodging sector for example, which is pricing in realtime revenue per available room is

under raesh, inpressure in new york hotels. how do you know the problems tiffany has is not like retailers, that it's got the wrong stock rather than tourists aren't spending. >> that's a good question. the easiest way to answer we look at trajectory of the results. there was definitely inflection point down in tiffany results as the dollar strengthened. you go back to 2014 tiffany's sales tracked well until the end of the year holiday season. there's always a lot of issues going on. and it's not just purely the dollar but i think in this case the strength of the u.s. dollar's a big part of it. >> brian, somebody made the point in the past hour that virtually no benefit from what's happening with gasoline and energy, right. >> it's hard to take the savings you're getting at the pump and buy yourself a ring is the way cramer put it. any way they benefit from a better consumer at the low end? do they need to lower price points emphasize silver again, anything? >> look, i think you guys are

right. it's basically a stretch to think that tiffany's going to benefit from lower gas prices. they do some lower end business and that business may benefit. in total i think there's other retailers better positioned to benefit lower gas or fuel prices than tiffany there to be clear, you're on the sidelines here brian? >> in the near term. like i said i have outperform rating. i think the stock does well overlong term. near term as long as pressures remain the stock will be weak here. >> oppenheimer senior retail analyst, brian nagel on tiffany today. dominic chu, a market flash on ak steel. >> carl we are watching shares of ak steel. the company warned on thursday it would post a loss in its first quarter due to higher than projected levels of steel imports. now the ohio-based steel producer expects a 14% sequential drop in shipments. shares as a result down 9%. also analysts weigh in on the stock. again, steel sector in focus today. back over to you guys.

one of wall street's top lawyers says a conference with bankers are regulators this week the most tense meeting he's ever seen. we'll ask rodgin cohen why in a minute. in my world, wall isn't a street. return on investment isn't the only return i'm looking forward to. for some every dollar is earned with sweat, sacrifice, courage. which is why usaa is honored to help our members with everything from investing for retirement to saving for college. our commitment to current and former military members and their families is without equal. start investing with as little as fifty dollars. ♪ building aircraft,

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nothing like lenny kravitz to kick off friday morning. c trip.com international are soaring this morning up 22%. the company did post a loss for the fourth quarter, but its results were better than wall street expected. ctrip projected strong revenue growth for the current quarter. as a result those shares simon, rocketing 22%. back over to you. >> very big player. confrontational and skeptical, how our next guest one of wall street's top lawyers, describing the skrirmt now between banks and regulators. a bank conference in phoenix, calling it the most tension-filled of any time in his career. joining us post 9 to explain why, rodgin cohen, senior chairman with the firm sullivan and cromwell. >> good morning. pleasure to be here. >> why such strong words? what is going on? >> i think what is going on is in the a debate whether we should have a vigorous and

rigorous regulatory regime. everyone should accept that after 2008. what we have a debate about is how that regime should be implemented in the examination process. should it be done with confrontation and suspicious or should it be done with healthy skepticism and independence. >> am i right in saying regulator capture is at the center of your concerns? just explain that to us, if you will. >> it is a myth which makes it difficult to explain but the theory is that the banks have somehow encaptured the regulators, in particular, the examiners. so the examiners do not have healthy skepticism so they are not independent. so they simply abide by what the banks tell them and that is a myth but it is i fear driving the interaction between the regulators and the banks. >> i mean to me it seems like

which regulator are you talking about? the fdic the s.e.c. the cftc federal reserve. to me it's like the problem is there's a cacophony of bank regulators and lardhard to glean where the attitude problems you're describing are coming from. >> when you ask the regulatory capture issue, it's all of the above. but the cacophony is a good phrase here because you look for example, at the volcker rule, you can be for it or against. it's hard to believe that anybody can support is that five regulatory agencies are have to approve every interpretation and every definition under the volcker rule. >> the federal reserve, of course, has taken the lead in some of the bank regulation and govern dan tarulo at the heart of that. janet yellen called it brazen wrong doing by the industry.

do you agree with that? do you see any evidence that that is still going on and that we're not just prosecuting things that happened in the past? >> i am relatively confident that what we saw in the past is not going on today. banks have put an enormous amount of resources, emotional as well at monetary into improving culture and into improving compliance. chair yellen is right to talk about some of these activities in the past as being brazen. but i think it was not the industry. it was subcultures within these banks which were flourish. >> you can't change culture by super vision. how confident can you be the subcultures won't keep bubbling up at different times in the future? >> you can't be totally confident and it's a fair question. best way you can get at them is to identify them have a process to identify them and when you

find them stamp them out. >> you talked to bankers, it seems anecdotally to me they saved their worst anger for elizabeth warren because she's vocal, she's out there, and she's someone that a broad audience is listening to. do you think that's a fair assessment. >> the senator warren is clearly at the forefront of the challenge to the banks. i think it would be far better for the industry not to worry so much about what senator warren is saying and more about what they are doing themselves or what any critic is saying what they need to do is channel their efforts inward to make sure their systems are better. >> people watching you now are literally skeptics who will be very angry and probably screaming at the television when you say i can be recently sure there is no wrong doing. when jamie dimon didn't know what the london wale was doing. the ceo said he couldn't be

blamed for not knowing what's going on in his bank. nobody can control the banks arguably at the size that they are. >> well i do frankly, not believe that size is the issue. you saw a lot of wrong doing in much smaller institutions which led up to the financial crisis. in fact, the virus began in independent mortgage banks that nobody had basically heard of. and, to be clear, i'm not reasonably confident there won't be any wrong doing. i'm reasonably confident that what we have seen in the past will not be repeated. >> what is the solution to the problem that you pose? what do we need to do? if we do it what will we get as a society in return. >> well as a society in return we need a banking system that is both safe and sound and,

thereby, can help the economy regain its footing. that means a combination again of strong regulation but also not what are today theoretical approaches, which would constrain the ability of institutions to really promote the economy. >> quickly is therefully merit to concerns and the baung of international settlements raised this liquidity could be a problem especially the bond market because of regulation and central bank policy, is this legit? >> a great point. my major concern is that no one has really conducted the holistic analysis to determine what the composite of these regulations is doing to liquidity in certain asset classes. >> come back and help us on this journey, as things occur. it's good to see you. rodgin cohen from sullivan and cromwell. currency headwinds and

pile-up at the ports a couple of factors working against nike in the last quarter. how did the swoosh handle it? pretty well. the stock's up nicely this morning. we'll break down those earnings when "squawk on the street" comes right back.

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♪ the dow's up 140 and one dow member that is helping fuel that is nike. trading at an all-time high record levels back to its ipo in 1980, 102.34. nike solid holiday quarter would have been better without the hit from the strong u.s. dollar. nike sales during the quarter up 7%. they would have been up 13% if not for the impact from currencies. when it comes to nike everybody also watches the futures orders. that number was up 11% without the hit from currencies as well. in terms of the revenue miss for north america, port congestion did hurt a bit. nike expected it will take a few quarters to work out and

normalize inventory levels from holdup at the port. overall the company's growing in basketball runnings shout out to women's growing faster than the men's business e-commerce a big part of the story. all of that was flagged for why nike performed better in term of the underlying business despite the macro economic challenges and head wins making it a mess. people look at nike as how the economy's growing overall. double digit strength in north america, double digit strength in europe doing extremely well in china, japan. only weak spot in terms of outlook came in emerging markets. niky gets majority of the sales overseas, currency will hurt the company as the dollar strengthened against every single currency in the past quarter but as tim cook cold jim cramer the best companies can manage their ways out the currencies. a huge theme on the nike earnings call and numbers show for themselves in terms of

underlying business. >> the chart is tied. jim said it's a push which one he would choose if forced top under armour had an all-time high today and less levered to international for now. they're trying to make the push. >> trying to expand. look at price-to-earnings, that's where the big difference is. people say nike is expensive at 26 times earnings and underwarmer is in the 80s. nike's ten times the size of under armour and both are growing at expense of adidas. >> lost the number two spot. >> source their product from places where the currency's going down don't they? they source their product from asia, the cost of all of the shoes coming across is going down and down all the time. if you've got a big market in this country, raw materials and the cost of those -- >> there has been wage inflation in the developing marks, including china. >> overall it's a hit for sales. >> a big thing. >> when we come back rick

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i'm sue herera. the faa has given amazon permission to test an experiment with certain drones outdoors. amazon can only test during daylight hours and below 400 feet. the company first launched plans for a drone delivery system more than a year ago, experts say it could be years before you'll see package deliveries through the tire people's homes. graco slapped with $10 million in fines. the agency says it failed to provide timely reporting of a defect in a record recall of more than 4 million child car seats. those car seats found to have faulty buckles that could become stuck, making it difficult to remove a child quickly in an emergency. jetblue tops a new survey in airline customer serviced overall score of 75% in the 2015 experience rating followed by southwest and dell tap on the other end, spirit airlines came in last with a 47% rating.

n. just a few hours, spring arrives. you wouldn't know it looking at a weather map. eight states under a winter weather advisory today. the storm is expected to dump as much as 6 inches on the east coast and bitter cold temperatures expected next week for the region. on that happy note that's our cnbc news update this hour. back to you guys. with greece coming ever closer to its financial day of reckoning, germany's kicking the ball squarely into the court of its hard left prime minister this weekend. the eu leaders summit in brussels prime minister tsipras met with merkel amid rising concern of how rapidly relations are deteriorating. the statement amounts to a let's try again, as jpmorgan puts it. tsipras must come up with concrete reforms for his second meeting with americamerkel in berlin

on monday. if not the fear that is greece will slide at the very least towards capital controls. >> mean time fed chair janet yellen skipped some of the usual fed speak at her news conference on wednesday. take a listen to this. >> just because we removed the word "patient" from the statement doesn't mean we're going to be impatient. >> unusually short and to the point but for clarity about when the fed will raise interest rates, that remains a little let's clear. joining us at post 9 to decipher what he's hearing, jim stewart. good to see you. you had written a column about the semantics around the world "patient." she clearly read it. >> i got fascinated by the word amused and fascinating in saying taking out "patient," she said we're not going to be impatient. where does that leave them? i don't remember there being a middle ground there. i got interested because

"patient" has taken on this significance and the markets are rising and falling on. i thought, wait a minute patient, wouldn't you always want a central banker to be patient as opposed to impatient. i spoke to linguists and it was fascinating that, yes, when the fed speaks they can take on these highly distinctive contempt actual meanings. take the word tall talking about a tall first grader you mean something very different than if you say a tall pro basketball player. the same thing when the fed uses it it takes on a distinctive meaning. we're back in the land of fed speak. bernanke said we're going to be clear, we don't want markets to be surprised. what do we have? nothing is clear, nothing is transparent, markets are gyrating, back to the same problem all over again. >> deliberately. >> i think it is deliberate. they like this ambiguity. they don't want to give it up because they can't be accountable or blamed if you have these gyrations. >> i argue slightly different.

when they were easing monetary policy they wanted people to believe they would ease for a very, very long time. always the logical conclusion tightening monetary policy you don't want to project you'll be tighter and tighter because that's a monetary tightening. >> exactly. to be explicit would mean the markets would move and there's no point in waiting. i think the fixation on is the raise in june in september? kind of missing the point. when yellen said we're not going to be impatient, what she was really saying was, even though we're taking the word out, we are going to be patient and we're going to be really slow. so really does it make that much difference if it's june or september? talking three months no in the scheme of things it doesn't matter. how about looking out? what she's really saying is when we start to raise it's going to be slow gradual, careful. we don't want to rock markets. so i think the irony of this is what she's saying is we are going to be patient.

>> would you argue they've been patient since 2008? we're going on seven years here jim. >> exactly. i'd say seven years is -- qualifies as patient. patient, one thing waiting in line at mcdonald's and a few minutes go by and you get impatient. it's another thing if you've applied for a mortgage which takes months. talking seven years for the fed to raise, they've earns the right to be permanently patient. >> or maybe aren't taking it as it comes along and don't have an exact plan they want to telegraph to the market and are they are data dependent. it's going to depend if we can shake off the cold winter weather and the port congestion and temporary factors that have been holding back the economy, including the strong dollar which we know now they're concerned about. >> which is true but don't you think it's interesting when you look back if they raise in june or september, this is pretty much what they were telegraphing over a year ago, even you know 18 months to 2 years ago people starting to say i think that's what they mean.

>> she made the mistake when she said six months that would have put us at the beginning of the year. >> maybe. i think the consensus for a long time has been plidmid-2015 and they're marching along to that description. >> calls for first quarter '16. we'll see. could be right. >> exactly. it's got to be data dependent. the data they're looking at doesn't turn on a dime. we've had good employment numbers for several quarters. i don't think it's going to fall after off a cliff but we'll see. >> management do they like the market. >> i don't want to bet against the market. it's fully valued but this is a besign scenario especially looking farther out and gradual increases. i think it's pretty good. i think bonds are, you know, when ten-year goes below 2% i don't see a good trade there. but i think the market is digesting this pretty well. >> just to wrap it up when do you think the market can get to a place where it done platter

whether she includes the word or not and whether -- it's not deciphering fed language on timing, on rate hikes and it's about fundamental of the economy and earnings. it's been a long time. >> it's been a long time. i think that would be healthy to get back to that. i think after a couple of increases the drama will be going down. too much fixation on the first increase when you have to look at this in a broader continuum, the next few that will get people calmed down we can start talking about something else. >> sounds like something dick fisher might say. >> jim stewart. >> we'll stick with the fed and talk about it more because former pimco chief economist was on "squawk box" with steve liesman recapping some of his thoughts here. i thought the most fascinating his pushback against the idea a stronger dollar's bad for the u.s. yes. interesting you say that sara. i don'tfully think you knew what high

was going to say. the former quote from mcculley when the fed might move weighing in on the debate with jim stewart. his take on the fed is they're going to let the economy run hot. >> they want to run it a little bit hot. you want to get close to five and you want to get through a period where you can see what inflation looks like after you get through the transitory effect on these oil prices. >> here's the new fed frontier, "patient" is out, in is the concept of see further improvement in the labor market with new long run unemploy minute rate of 5.1% and confidence inflation is moving back to 2%. the real x-factor in fed policy is that inflation number and when the fed will have that confidence moving back towards 2%. here's a way to think about it. here's the fed going for two, like a football game. 2% is the target and you can see what their forecast is for headline inflation. they don't make two for quite a while, not in '16, not in '17

but between '15 and '16 they start getting up towards that. mcculley what happened to the dollar is a key factor but sees the strength, as sara said, as a positive for the u.s. economy. >> you have very different environments in the united states versus the rest of the world and you have a very different monetary policy. so you could look at it the currencies in some respects like stocks and the dollar is a growth stock. and growth stocks overtime will outperform utilities. >> so sara if the dollar is closer to parity than it was before when it started this decline, then the thinking is that perhaps the biggest impact on inflation is in the few months ahead, but then it washes out. sometime around the summer perhaps, the fed gets that confidence. i don't know what your view is on where the dollar's headed. >> from what we're hearing is

that the speed of the move in a short period of time has become a little disorderly and that is where you're going to start to see the harm on the economy in form of exports which as you know janet yellen talked about this week and what companies across corporate america are talking about. i thought it was interesting that treasury secretary jack lew keeps repeating this mantra that a strong dollar is in the best interest of the united states. i think that's really up for debate right now. >> well i think that there are some obvious and immediate negatives but also some positives when it comes to the u.s. dollar. not everybody is affected by it. the thing that the united states has going for it as you know, one of the least trade sensitive economies in the world. maybe 15%, 20% of gdp is linked not dollar and the value of the foreign currency. >> if you've got to attract for enexchange, you've got to believe in a strong dollar. the treasury secretary will never say anything other. they've done it for decades. >> the ruben mon tra of a strong

dollar. thank you for bringing us those relevant comments. after a decade leading the dallas fed, richard fisher retired thursday. an exclusive exit interview with our very own rick santelli. you won't want to miss that on "squawk on the street." 80% of the poor in africa are rural farmers. 96% of them are doing rain-fed agriculture. they're all competing with each other; they're all making very low margins making enough to survive but not enough to get out of poverty. so kickstart designs low cost irrigation pumps enabling them to grow high value crops throughout the year so you can make a lot of money. it's all very well to have a whole lot of small innovations but unless we can scale it up enough to where we are talking about millions of farmers, we're not going to solve their biggest challenge.

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relaxed about the fed in why a rate rise could come sooner than you think. the weather could be forecasting the next move in bonds. check out those stories and more. catch us 2:00 eastern time hour. more "squawk on the street" after this. for trading never stops. so if you get a trade idea about, say organic food stocks schwab can help. with a trading specialist just a tap away. what's on your mind lisa? i'd like to talk about a trade idea. let's hear it. [ male announcer ] see how schwab can help light a way forward. so you can make your move wherever you are. and start working on your next big idea. ♪ ♪

in my world, wall isn't a street. return on investment isn't the only return i'm looking forward to. for some every dollar is earned with sweat, sacrifice, courage. which is why usaa is honored to help our members with everything from investing for retirement to saving for college. our commitment to current and former military members and their families is without equal. start investing with as little as fifty dollars. >> the market at session highs here. dow up 167. rick santelli in chicago who has a very special guest. rick? >> i didn't sleep at all last night, to me this is like it was christmas eve last night. i'd like to welcome my very special guest, richard fisher. fining a lot of new, free time these days, i would guess,

correct, richard? >> well rick i hope so. i certainly hope to get on the golf course every now and then. but we'll see. >> all right. let's start at the beginning with something easy but super important. if you had to rate the u.s. economy zero to ten, ten the best zero being the least vibrant, where would you peg the u.s. economy at this point in time? >> in relative terms, relative to the rest of the world, close to the upper end of the scale broaching ten. we're number one. if you take the nafta countries as a whole, united states mexico, and canada this is the epicenter of world growth. that's why we have a strong dollar. that's why people are funneling month ty into the united states. we are a growth economy, as someone said earlier in the show. we're moving forward we have just had a huge tax cut in terms of oil prices. it may slow down employment growth in texas but it's good for the rest of the nation.

we're in a sweet spot right now. the markets are high interest rate are low, the economy's still growing. again a massive tax cut in terms -- >> let me interrupt. >> we're in good shape. >> one issue, can you give plea an answer without grading on a curve? the markets are high okay. do you think any part of the stock market being high has anything to do with the committee that you just left in terms of being a part of and if you didn't grade on a curve and graded the u.s. economy based on history, maybe considering over six years of zero interest rate policy would you still give it a ten? >> well rick fir what the fomc wanted to accomplish has been accomplished. you remember as well as i do the market bottomed in march 9, 2009, it's tripled since then. started buying bonds, injected a lot of liquidity into the

economy. what worries me is how lazy investors have gotten totally dependent on the federal reserve. i find this to be a precarious situation. but all i'm saying is right now, in terms of the real economy, we are growing, others are not growing as well as we respect we're still inventing. we're still innovating. this is a remarkable place, the united states. are we vulnerable in my personal opinion to a significant equity market correction we do believe we respect the reason for that is people have gotten lazy. dependent totally on the fed. >> if investors are getting lazy, if i have a dog that's hungry and every time i give him a can of food i ring a bell we know we're going to condition that dog. has not the federal reserve conditioned investors to be lazy. >> who do we point the finger at? if you leave raw meat out and your dog eats it do we blame the dog, our should human behavior be an issue that the committee takes unreview a little more

closely? >> well look i've sat through that committee for ten years. it does take this under review. it had a job to do which was of course patch the economy together, save it, that was ben bernanke's job. now janet yellen's job is to engineer the exit and go back to normalization. what a find interesting, rick, here's this diminutive woman and the way she's portrayed atlas holding the world on her shoulders. it's an awesome responsibility but there will be normalization over time. we're huber accommodative. even if the base rate is raised june, september, whenever it is it's still going to be very accommodative monetary policy. what worries me is that people that watch the show particularly the big money traders, are just completely dependent on the fed. look at the volatility the last few days. whether one word is interpreted one way or the other. so, yes, we have as the fomc has conditioned the markets, i

think the markets, however, have a responsibility to do their own work and to expect that as the economy improves things are going to change over time the yellen committee will engineer normalization, however long that takes and i think the markets should get prepared for. what i don't like market commentators blame the fed for their own problems and that's what i worry about. i could see a correction taking place a substantial magnitude, should the fed react because that's happening? i don't believe so. i've argued that at the table when i was at the table because, after all this market's hyper overpriced in my view and these interest rates are abnormally low, engineered by the fed, but that's because nobody else is doing anything on the fiscal policy side and we had to act. who do you point the blame at? your dog analogy's very interesting. >> i realize that but -- >> the fact is -- they want us

keep feeding them this red meat and i don't think that's the job of the fomc. >> i agree. you said something, it's about time investors quick getting lazy and the market many of us in chicago and around the country think the market will have a difficult time trying to do any sort of work just think about the amount of tradeable float in treasuries and all the issuance in corporates, do you see this as an issue getting worse based on the ongoing over six year e policies, are we going to have flash crashes when normalization occurs because the markets won't be able to handle the volatility? >> i don't know. one other statistic you should look at over $2 trillion in emerging markets market bonds now. most are commodity related. we've had all these markets explode, there's massive liquidity, yes, we are the central bank of the world, we've injected enormous liquidity into the system we floated all boats, but at the same time what the market -- excuse me the

fomc is guided by the real economy, much better than it was, it continues to grow it benefits from recent developments the united states as a whole, and i just hope that people are beginning to discount in their own ways at some point that the base rate will be raised. now when that happens, is subject to the judgment of the committee. but -- >> i'm out of time. i could talk another six minutes. >> the fed has to save the world and janet yellen has to save the world that's an undue and unfair burden. >> listen one word answer to finish up will janet yellen and the committee raise rates at all in 2015 in your opinion, yes or no? >> that's up to them. if i were in here shoes which would be interesting, she wears heels by the way i would raise rates in 2015. it doesn't mean that it has to be raised the edd at every meeting but i would start the process moving in that direction as to when

that's up to the committee, rick. >> excellent. richard, i thank you for doing this interview fresh off of the presidential position you held at the dallas federal reserve. i thank you. simon hobbs, it's all yours. >> seeing mr. fisher in a different light. thank you. coming up on the program after the break, private equity and pot as the can dmikancannibis industry struggles to get credit and financing. money heading north of the border where we find jane wells. jane? >> simon, this is sweet skunk cbd, other here barbara bud. first time u.s. cameras have been allowed in the largest government sanctioned grow in the world. oh cannibis when we come back.

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purchase any new verizon wireless smartphone or tablet from comcast. visit comcast.com/wireless to learn more. banks, credit fi napsing three keys to getting a business off the ground. if the business happens to be pot you're 0 for 3 in the u.s. not in canada one equity firm taking advantage of pot policies to build what may be the most high-tech grow house. jane wells is live in british columbia, wearing a hair net. hey, jane. >> well does the clean suit make me look fat. this is the first time i've been

in a grow house where i had to wear a suit. this is the largest government sanctioned grow in the world in canada where patients can buy medical marijuana get in the mail and pay for it with credit cards. >> this is a state-of-the-art facility that's really unparalleled anywhere in the world and that means it's really complicated. >> reporter: complicated and profitable. brendan kennedy's holdings raised $80 million for people like peter till who. it's one of 15 facilities licensed by health canada to serve the medical pot patients and when something is legal on a federal level it no longer has to be an all cash business. >> i've been in rooms in the u.s. that have a million dollars in cash and that's never a comfortable feeling. we don't have any cash here. we have a lot of product. all of our traps actions are

done on line over the phone and we accept credit cards. >> where do you bank? >> we bank with rbc, royal bank of canada. >> reporter: there are still some limits to cannibis one of those days to cannibis tolerance for marijuana. recreational pot is not legal. medical side it is still not reimbursed by insurance. and there are no edibles or oils you can only get it in herb form. we're going to have a whole lot more later on cnbc.com on the difference between the u.s. and canada and why americans are investing here. back to you. >> all right. thank you very much. great story, jane wells, on the canada cannibis beat today. over to jon fortt with a look at what is coming up next on "squawk alley." good morning jon. >> good morning what else is getting high the markets. we'll be looking at that. a rally going on. facebook at an all-time high. what's driving that and why does it have an advantage over other social media players.

streaming fastly and remember that net neutrality stuff. some people aren't so into it. we'll look too that and more coming up on "squawk alley." you can find a new frontier. there's nothing stopping you and a lot helping you. technology that's with you always. this is our promise. it's never been better to wander because wherever you go, you'll find us doing everything we can, so you can.

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