tv Fast Money CNBC March 20, 2015 5:00pm-5:31pm EDT
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you see in the u.s. no cash, because they can have a bank account. their bank, rbc. >> jane wells, thank you. oh cannabis. thank you to our panel members as well. always lovely to see all of you and a safe trek getting home on the friday. >> we have "fast money" coming up. >> are buds up mid-town right now the nasdaq market side. melissa, take it away. >> right now, live from the nasdaq markets, overlooking new york city's time's square, i'm melissa lee, kim seymour, guy adame. an epic debate is coming up. which stock will move forward in our "fast money" madness traders? we start off with today's big rally. stocks seeing the first weekly gain in four weeks. the in fact /* nsdaq is close at
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its highest. wells fargo out saying stocks remain dollar dependent now and highlighting some beaten down dollar sensitive stocks as potential buys. newport mcmoran and trance ocean. how do you pla i the dollar driven market? >> i like actually those commodity names. if the dollar is going to weaken. i'm not talking a massive weakening, at least the ascension of the dollar is halted for the time being. we are probably in a corrective phase, you want to go to those commodities. i took off the copper short the other day. the other thing i have done. i know tim's talked about this before me, i actually bought emerging markets today. eem, because if those currencies are about to rebound, that will be good for them a. lot sold off. eem is the way i play it. >> the gist of that, maybe the stocks that are a dollar
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sensitive have overcorrected now that we are seeing some stability. therefore, if we see stability continue, these stocks are set for the biggest bounces. >> like brian said, emerging markets can definitely rally in these markets. look at 41 as a level on the eem as a breakout wlefl. if we break through that, that's a level that's been resistant more or less 32 the 40, 41. it broke back through 50 in september. it tells me the eem currencies are giving you room to run. i think commodities are bottom. 200 on the crb is a multi-year low, a ten-year low. so where do you go? and this is again you have to assume that the dollar is going as to stay, hit 95 before it goes to 110. i think it's going at least to 105. picking the level is difficult to do. this is a window of saying after the fed meeting, we are going back down lower. things are overdone on the dollar. i agree with that.
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>> materials related like minors or oil stocks? >> right. so that whole complex you expect to run. those were the ones beaten up so bad. you want to go with the winners, even though you will fought get the biggest buck for your bang, you are going with something with a bigger base to it. i would stay with the refiners. i look for those to stabilize or balance a little bit more. but i would expect dollar weakness per month, a month-and-a-half. >> you buy into this notion, though, guy, there is dollar stability? >> i think there is stability. i think the fed speak was a speed bump just to slow things down. i think they needed to do that. because they were concerned at how strong and quickly the dollar had rallied, specifically against the you're row. i don't think they would have stopped it. i think the trend is still that way t. dollar still rallies against these currencies. with that said, you have a window that tim my spoke about. i think that window will get an opportunity to get out of these things. we talked about freeport-mcmoran
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up today. that's my senses where we are with na. >> you bakally agree because you are long commodities. >> the one thing i would say is this plays out, if commodities really rally and oil, in particular, at some point in time, the market will start to think, uh-oh, the fed is now in trouble, they will start raising. i think what guy was alluding to. i agree, window here to play it. you wait for that dollar weakness. >> dom chu is back at head quarters with the details. >> reporter: you probably saw what happened to apple in the last few moments of trading. apple shares were at least losing momentum going into the "closing bell." in the last two minutes of regular session trading, we saw apple shares fall of a relative cliff. we are talking a percent-and-a-half. you see it at the right-hand side of the screen there. there are a number of explanations we are hearing chatter about. one was a quad ruopple witching day, a lot of future "options action" hedging and closing
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oppositions. we heard there was a sell side on balance. there was a number of million of shares to sell into the market close. that may have done it as well. what we want to point out here is there was relatively heavy volume. from what we can see on the volume carts, 16 to 17 million shares in the last few moments of trading. >> that maybe lends credence there was selling pressure, still we are seeing about 6 million shares trade in the after hours session and it's brought back some of those losses to just where it was before this little mini crash happened. so maybe some technical reasons, guys for the balance of it. maybe you guys can shed light on it as well. it doesn't seem it was at all a nefarious pressure on an "options action" day. >> dom chu. thanks, for that. >> as dom led in, s&p rebalance. so you don't know where the money is coming from. there is a lot of different
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times of shops, your pension funds, mutual funds and your hedge funds. so you never know who is rebalancing. where the money is going. i wouldn't read too much into this. they are taking from one, selling into another, vice-ve a vice-versa. apple is up 14% 84-to-date. so maybe somebody trimmed the bell. that's where the numbers looked at. >> shares are soaring to an all time high after releasing better-than-expected data for the drug for alzheimer's. they are showing no signs of stopping. the nasdaq climbing this week alone. jeffrey borges, thank you for being with us. it seems like you are a bear. biogen is one of the lowest on the streets. today we had everybody and their brother raising their price targets to as high as $535.
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why do you remain at 356? >> look, there is an awful lot that used to be done on this drug. today we saw the first data. it was very compelling. it's only 160 patients. there is an awful lot that needs to be done in designing and conducting a phase 3 trial. >> that will take three years. we will talk to experts. they certainly have questions of the data. it's hard that this might be a huge drug class on the horizon for the first time. >> so the implication of you keeping the price target at 356 is biogen is overvalued. but there may be pockets of overvaluation in the sector. is that what you believe? >> there is an enormous amount of enthusiasm and hysteria. portfolio managers are simply saying i need to own a gene therapy company or biotech. >> get me some non-specialist, right? >> we are getting specialists piling in, of course, there is no growth anywhere else.
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biotech companies are delivering, 25 to 30% year over year. that's very attractive right now. >> so in which pockets? in which pockets are they the most hysteria, as you call it? >> i think if you look at the novel technologies, the things like the gene therapy companies the stocks have run very fast, very quickly. >> can you give us some examples? >> companies like juno therapeutic. some of the other things like bluebird. now, these are great companies. i'm not going to suggest they don't have enormous value. we think they've gotten ahead of themselves. even in biogen's case today, people are pricing in a higher odds of success in this trial than we think are necessarily warranted. the data is compelling. >> in terms of sales, people have 4 to $5 billion s. that what you priced in? >> we think $4 to $5 billion
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will be in. over the next two years, we're going to see their results coming out of their trials. we have to see, is this going to be all biogens or shared with three or four big far pa companies? >> so what is your top pick you think is not over. >> we think it has interesting pipeline programs for alexion. it's very hard to find a space where you can be ahead of consensus, giving enthusiasm in the market right now. so we really like that a lot. >> jeffrey, we will leave it right there. jeffrey porges. biogen, celgene, gilead. these are the top holdings. >> biotechs in a bubble, a lot of these companies have no earnings, which i get a. lot are biotech in name only. celgene, gilead, amgen, looking
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at how pristine the balance is, no debt. i don't think those are necessarily in. i think cellgene continues to hire. gilead, amgen. that's a real story we talked about. >> if you seen this news, celgene announced in the new england journal, it's gaining acceptance. that's to me often been time to fade somebody. few look at the ibb, the rsi, the relative strength indicator, momentum. everything jeffrey was saying. are you in a third place where we are trading 81, 82, 83, which is way overbought territory. it's pulled back every single time. they have been pullbacks to buy. jumping in on monday to buy these stocks after huge runs, i think you have to be cautious. >> i spoke about this a lot. when you go with the ibb, you go with the top holdings on it. look at my clearance, clo vis pharmaceuticals down 52%. this year it rallied back. ritz up 120%.
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its doing better than biogen. this has been a round-trip roller coaster. i still think it goes higher. >> i would say i'm more on tim's scan. if you look at the way ibb traded today, right? we have this massive strike and a reversal. when that happens, that tells you the buying interest is waning out particularly when it goes parabolic. for me it's a signal to take a retweet what tim said. amazon drones becoming a reality. getting clearance from the faa to test delivery zones. will it make a dent in the stock? an all time high. today the traders to date whether face intook a better buy tan google. almost would you rather? our "fast money" madness challenge. plus we have the first trade you should put on monday morning coming up on "fast." .
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follows rules. drones can only fly in daylight and pilots must hold at least private light certificate. >> this is the tip of the iceberg. so is this going to move the needle? ultimately, it probably will. i think the biggest picture for amazon is baba became sellable events. what i have been saying for years, amazon can turn the switch. >> that i have the revenues. nay need the profits. -- they need the profits. if you look at a drone direct play, we spoke about on this deck, aeroenvironment or avav, that one is a $625 million market cap. you love that stock? >> where else would you go? >> you are stretched to find direct drone play. >> it's really the only publicly traded. >> it's up, a flat year-to-date. but this is one you start to see a lot more attention paid to drones. you nerve know. >> don't they tell you the
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amazon delivery by drone, which would be the most leveraged drones is not moving. >> this is not a reason to buy amazon, i'm sorry. a 1.5% move is a market move. the stock, you have to watch this 380 level. this is where it has been stuck from 290 straight up from 2 seven to the 380. i think it's a pause. i would much rather be involved. >> time now for pops and drops. a big pop, up 25% for ctrip.com. >> they guided first quarter numbers, 2015 way up. these are names delivering even though the stocks have been punished. pick them carefully. >> best and final bid for the company, 95-and-a-half puts it out there. the sell-off was the risk arm pros out there saying it's not going to happen. there are many more chapters left here. this is deep end of the pool stuff.
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i do think there will be an opportunity to buy the stocks lower. maybe blackstone gets involved. >> kb home up. >> it's still down 7 and three-quarters percent or so thereabouts. orders up in the last quarter. the value of those orders are up 25% year over year. i'm in the name. i continue to be in the name. >> above 72, this is key. great ceo in this space. as longs as it stays above 72, you are okay to buy this one. >> coming up next, is the tech titan playoff. facebook versus google for the next matchup in our madness bracket. only one company canned a have aens to the next round. before we head to break, we to the we'd ask the people of time's square, which website they use more. >> facebook or google? >> definitely facebook. >> google. >> google, brother.
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>> google. >> i like google. >> google. >> if you had to pick a stock, facebook or google in. >> google. >> facebook. >> google. >> facebook. all can you do is talk to your friends. >> it's kind of turning into my space. >> google. >> why? >> because whenever i need something, it's there for me. >> we like google right now. it's showing a fair valuation. the multiple looks good, it's 30 times earnings. >> are you a "fast money" fan? >> i like melissa lee. i think she's a good looking lady.
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. >> it's time for today's battle in our "fast money" madness tournament t. title of "fast money" champion. the competition will have exclusive previews each day. yesterday we saw a big upset as paychecks beat out ebay to advance in the payments conference. tonight we have two heavyweights dukeing it out. facebook currently at all time highs. do not forget, your vote counts too. log on and tell us whether you
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prefer facebook or google. remember in the 1st round the viewer favorite will be used to break any ties. e-tradeer gets 30 seconds to make their cases. let's put on 30 seconds on the shot clock. click it off ten. >> if you are a winner, you get a basketball sticker on your bicep like i have. because i'm a winner. here's what's going on at google. to me, this is a company 25% line, this is still very, very strong for a company trading 17 times next year. the thing i want to stress now, this is where i will spend my 30 seconds. this is a company with a lot of catalyst behind it. i think this is a company like apple will have people looking for them to free up capital and give it back to investors. >> that will drive them. >> beakers. >> oh, right to me. >> yeah. >> on with the facebook even though it's not called facebook. a great breakout in this stock. they are firing on all
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cylinders. all the criticism about facebook, they're turning into my space. you are not going to monetize mobile. they're doing everything everybody else is going to do. not only that, some of the purchase, yours truly said they paid too much for them are actually working out and have doubled and tripled in value. for me it's facebook, when i look at google. the problem is they don't have cohesive strategy. i think they may want to buy the twitter and that would put them in better thomptician. >> i think they have a social strategy when you look at google. google has youtube. i'm a holder of both. i like facebook as well. i own both. i think last year google got beat up. it was a lager. it will be a leader this year a. gentleman, a guy i interviewed on the street, trades at basically 28 times. it grows at about 20 times per year. so that to me is valuation. you will get growth. they're in the internet of things and the truth is, you will look at the nest the ways,
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everything, your car, your home, they own everything. they own wifi. they own search. >> is this a tie, guy? >> facebook, that side is google. this side is facebook. when they vote instagram, people said they overpaid instagram a billion dollars. now look at the valuation of snapchat almost $18 billion. they actually sold instagram. it might be the best deal of the last 15, 20 years. their mobile platform continues to crush. last three-quarters have been exlen. the stock has had trouble at 80 bucks now for a while. i think it will continue to rally into earnings. google can't get out of its own way, i'm in a nicebook camp. >> it's a tie at the desk. that means one thing, your vote on twitter will determine advances. on twitter, you all said facebook. that means facebook will advance to the next round in the internet conference. >> no stickers for you. >> on monday, we head back to our chips bracket. where intel, a winner has had
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vansed with a matchup between micro and invidia, monday should be good back in the chip conference. all right. it is time now for the final trade. let's go around the horn. tim. >> there are two oversold currencies at the end of brazil and the turkish lira. play it in the short run. >> mtw, i hate pronouncing it. manito manito manitowoc. it should have been stronger today. something is going on here more than meets the eye. dollar strength has been a head wind. if you cedar weakness, that extends for a little more time, i would think that manitopoc could be strengthen going forward. gld, it's been a long time since i talked about shiny
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metals. talk about that on monday. >> sorry, crushed it. donkashane. i crushed that song. harvard, great effort last night. georgetown hoyas moving on t. facebook, go with what got to you the desk. >> that does it on ""fast money."" coming up next on "options action," the one stock that could hold the key to the stock's next move. do not go anywhere. . it's great when someone ez you guys simplified the mark for me. >> when my grandparents take to this country. they couldn't speak english t. first stock they bought was ibf. the stockmarket is a deal for anybody to achieve the american dream. >> you don't have to be a life
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long trader no watch the show and make money in the markets. that's what we're here for. >> i want to hit it and move on. ♪ help brazil reduce its overall reliance on foreign imports with the launch of the country's largest petrochemical operations. when emerson takes up the challenge, it's never been done before simply becomes consider it solved. emerson.
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on a snowy expiration friday, our guys are picking up their hottest trades behind me. while they're getting ready. take a look at water cowhat's coming up. >> that pretty much explain what biotech's done. there is a glitch in the charts. it could mean the breakout is over. plus -- okay. that's a little cheesy even by our standards, but it does tell youio bonds, currencies and commodities are doing. will stocks go wild next neighborhood, the big question on wall street today, they want to know why traders are so big on ford? we got the answer. the action starts right now. ♪ here's a question to you at the deck if you missed the rallies so far, what is the best sector to play catch-up with? mikes, carter, you guys are looking at
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