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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  March 25, 2015 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT

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>> it depends. depending -- you know -- >> in two seconds. >> it all depends. it starts around $10 an hour and goes up to the manager. >> wish we had more time. you'll have to come back with the crunch burger. >> okay. >> "closing bell." "fast money" begins right now. stocks selling off today, the nasdaq getting hit the hardest, closing down more than 2%, the biggest drop of the year. we are at the center of it all in new york city's sometimes kwar. welcome to "fast money." i'm sixuan li. your traders tonight, we will be digging through today's market action throughout the show. there are knee three main sources of the sell-off today which we'll unpack. one, biotech taking a big hit. some saying the high-flying sector is potentially starting a correction, biogen, celgene all getting hit and lerszs known, infinity pharma, should we be
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worried about this area of the market which has helped push the nasdaq to new highs? >> on friday i think it was, you pointed out, that huge run-up in the ivp, reverse close lower, and it's come to fruition. huge sell-off today, down 4%. i still think biotech's in a nice uptrend. if you look back to may, we've had sell-offs of this magnitude a few times since then. but ivp through 320 might change the course of direction. i'm still a believer in biotech, but the trend has been your friend. i think it continue to be. >> 3320 would be a big deal because 335-ish has been good support. >> and think we have seen on volatile days we've moved through this. if you look at the underlying stocks, top weights biogen, amgen, celgene, this makes up about 40% of the index right there. if you look at some of those stocks, all those are not created equal.
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amgen looks the most defensive. reasonable value but a stock that's been trapped in this range for the last six months. the question is what is causing this pullback in sentiment today because there's nothing different today that has happened than looking at the valuations in a lot of these stocks. i think there is some reallocation going on. i think ultimately it doesn't change the biotech story. you don't do not wholesale these names today. >> is this a read of risk, willingness to take risk in the market? >> absolutely. people have come on and talked about portfolio managers getting into the biotech space that aren't experts, generalists, macro tourists in my field. they're biotech tourists. when you get something like that, the spike um, and all of a sudden it falls off, you have weak hands holding these stocks. biotech i wouldn't be as worried about as other things in the market. biotech, if you know it well, like guy does, like tim does, i think you can pick up some stuff in biotech. but the rest of the market i'd be more concerned about. >> tim mentioned the top
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holdings of the ibp, but look at the xvi because that was down a whole percentage more than the others simply because of the holdings, top holdings for xbi, foundation, very different from the big caps so you have to know what you own. >> right. it's so interesting. this is a difficult thing to assess what to do because you have so clearly it's sentiment that changed, nothing else. not like there were new regulations that came out today that dramatically change the biotech story at all. you know, it didn't matter what it was, what name, what drug, didn't matter, they all went down. so i sort of agree, this isn't the place to get spooked out. new money is getting spooked out now. we've been in it for a long time. we have these days that come up that are so painful like today, but over the last four or five years every single pullback, every single one was an opportunity to buy. could this have been the one
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they finally rang the bell? maybe. i'm going to stick it out a little longer and see what happens. i'm not ready to sell. >> are you buying? >> i'm a little scaredy cat. who knows there could be another 20 points down but i sort of made my bet. we're here for the long term. it's worked. we're going to hang out. >> guy, if you had to buy one pullback today. >> celgene. in the biotech space, celgene to me is -- i shouldn't say this but i think it's a bulletproof company. yeah. >> all right. >> out on a limb. >> source in sell-off number two in what is hitting much of the broader market, oil rallying 3% while the transports took a hit. a lot of people pointing to the transports as not confirming the most recent highs made on the s&p 500, that is if you are a dow theorist. are you? >> i'll tell you what, there are certain times in the market cycle and the economic cycle that makes a ton of sense. i think we're in a place where late cyclicals work. i think transports to me have a
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function of two things. they've mad major, major moves, highly sensitive to oil and gas movements. i think we're in a place where market rotation and lack of confidence also with the fed leaves all these guys vulnerable to dollar moves. the interesting thing is the dollar remains sideways to downwards today. again, you can't look at them all the same. if you look to me the rails versus the airlines, i think you have two very different stories. we'll have hunter on later and he'll put the airlines in place. fed ex i am buying on weakness, a company that has pricing power, their international business, fed ex express has been booming. i would be looking to pick up on weakness. >> you think transports are any sort of leading indicator any more? >> no, i don't. and, you know, i think the story has gotten so out of whack because of the energy situation. and it was interesting to me, though, that oil was as strong as it was today. i know the dollar was weaker but the move the oil did not correlate closely with the move -- even though directionally that way, but i
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don't know if this means a bottom or not in oil. but i'd like to see it was able to hold it together in the face of a very, very ugly market. >> within oil was oil services and it was refiners still. >> can we go real quick on transports? >> yeah. >> transports topped out in november in the iyt around 168 give or take and it bounced up against that level for the last four or five months unsuccessfully. i do think it's worth watching. 155, which is exactly effectively where we are right now i think is a huge support level. i think it's critical. and biotech, what do you call them tourists, trade the little cameras around? >> fanny packs. give me an oil equity trade. >> i would go into -- i would just buy oil outright. either by xle, that's done very well. but b&o. that's your brent. we'll talk about why brent might outspace its gain. >> third source of the sell-off today, chip stocks.
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the semiconductors having their worst day since october 10th. we bring in a managing director on the downturn. great to have you with us. one of the leading stocks to the downside today was micron. there's a massive concern in general about d ram pricing and what samsung had telegraphed to the market when they delayed equipment orders by one or two quarters. have we seen this priced into the stock? because we've seen some pretty severe pullbacks in this area. >> yeah. i think so. now they're going to report next week the pc part of the d-ram business until preannounced, there's some chatter in the far east, some consumer weakness potentially and there's some orders apparently from tsnc, the foundry, that have seen some weakness on the pc side of the equation. so micron could be at the lower end of the range. we're comfortable at our below-consensus view. keep in mind the chip sector is up 25% in the past six months, the stocks, and over the past
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two years it's up nearly 60%. so investors are nervous. they're going to wait until the earnings season plays out but we're bullish overall in certain areas in the chip space. >> one of your topics is invid i don't know and caught a downgrade from goldman. there are concerns about losing the fees from intel when that deal expires. 55%, pcs are 55% or so of nvidia's revenues. why are you not concerned? >> i would say more like 20% of their business is true kind of consumer pc. the other portion is gaming. the gaming is growing at a double-digit rate. so looking at intel and trying to make the connection with nvidia is not that relevant these days, particularly since intel is seeing weakness mostly in commercial pcs. nvidia doesn't sell gpus and commercial pcs. great story, the intel deal is the third deal they have. we'll see if they reup the deal.
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my sense is if intel is not hiring gpu architects they'll have to pay at some point. we'll wait and see how it plays out. we're bullish on the 80% that's not pc related. >> i think you have a $45 price target micron, an 80% move from here. d-ram pricing seem s to be topping out. how do you get to that price? >> so, here's an interesting dynamic. in nand flash, they have a gross margin problem. they can fix that. their margins will grow by a thousand to 1,500 boinlts just on the nan side. the deal on the d-ram side is the supply/demand question, not the seasonality of march or april. it's a structural issue that nobody's adding enough capacity to keep up with bit demand in the next several year, samsung, others. nobody's adding. the mobile space is driving a tremendous amount of d-ram. pricing will come back and this stock will work. >> hans, thanks for your time.
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his other picks altera and c caveon, which was down 6% today. pressure across the chip space. where do you go? >> intel. they're not as pegged to the core chip business. the data remains strong, a core part of their business. the pc weakness was so well telegraphed but having said that, this stock has not been able to hold up. i recommended this stock two bucks ago. to me it pays a great dividend, offers a ton of value here and i think cycle has been underrated. >> i would add on the intel, remember, this was a $38 stock a cup molls ago so this is coming to the tail end of what everybody has been worried about. at 29 you have massive support. i think for a trade intel is your way to go. >> look at qualcomm since the summer. it's had three huge downdrafts. you caught a bid, you talked about it when they announced that $15 stock repurchase, went from $72 to $75, has given it all back in spades.
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to me it trades as if it wants to push back to that $62 level. i think that's where it's headed. >> green and a sea of red. kraft surging today after announcing merger with heinz. which other food stocks could be potential takeover targets. and facebook announcing big changes at its developers conference. we just spoke with mark zuckerberg. we'll take you thrive the conference after the break. and the biotech sell off from the front lines. juneau therapeutics says there is one thing that could deal another massive blow to the sector. what it is coming up.
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major sell-off today, but kraft foods soaring and that kicks off our top trade. kraft will merge with heinz to create a $28 billion food giant backed by warren buffett and 3g capital. buffett spoke about the deal this morning. >> you don't know the direction the new company will go, whether they'll have an opportunity to buy operations to add it to or
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what will happen, but the one thing i can promise you is you will not see berkshire reduce its interest. >> so what other food stocks are right for a takeover? tim. >> this whole sector has been in play over a year now. one of the nams remember from last year was pinnacle foods, paceally being chased around by hi hillshire farms. ultimately tyson came in and bought them. we know the packaged food business is attractive, the multiples are expanding, costs are going down, one of the reasons heinz wants kraft. 3g capital, they squeeze all the costs, sell off the business they don't need. i don't think this deal, by the way, has any antitrust implications. it's a great deal. pinnacle foods is a target. it's small enough as a company, about a $6.5 billion enterprise value. it trades cheap to its peers. it offers, you know, del monte, bird's eye, wishbone, brands in the same way that the deal got
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done today with big household brands i think there are other names in there. but the sector is in play. you almost heard warren say, i don't know if they'll do more, but clearly size matters here and that means scale, distribution, cost inputs. >> pinnacle, by the way, new 52-week high and along with white wave and hain, interesting moves too. >> they've done a tremendous job, irwin simon. pinnacle might be bite sized, no pun intend, for an acquirer, but buffett always talks about hunting elephants. this is clearly an elephant. i don't think it's elephant hunting season. deals like this, this big, are rare. to be in a name like campbell's, to hope you're going to get a butch et or 3g type of acquisition i think is a dangerous game. for me campbell's at 20 times. i don't know. i'd rather not own it here. >> hain. irwin simon has been on the show a dozen times and every time he comes on people say it's getting out of control, valuation. that stock made an all-time high today, closed in the green.
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and we've talked about this a number of times. they're in the sweet spot, so that might be rhino hunting or -- >> like meerkat hunting. >> you shouldn't hunt anything because all these animals are in danger, especially rhinos. >> says a guy who hit a deer on the way home. >> long story. never mind. facebook making big announcements today at its developer's conference including turning its messenger into a platform. julia has the latest. >> mark zuckerberg saying he's focused on building ouf facebook's portfolio of apps and making each of them a much richer experience. the core of that strategy is turning its messenger app into a platform. it has 40 developers on board, espn and weather channel and jib jab to help users create and share content and videos without ever leaving messenger. for the first time it's launching for businesses to allow them to interact directly
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with consumers. some retailers are already on board. >> think about how useful it would be if you could just messenger business and instantly get information about whatever you need, make a reservation, buy something online, change shipping information and times. so today we're introducing a way for you to communicate with businesses right through messenger. >> facebook also announcing an extension of its live rail ad tool so brand can buy, measure, and manage their video and now also mobile display add as not just on facebook but across mobile aps. this puts facebook into competition with twitter's hub as well as google's ad exchange. facebook is also taking on youtube today launching an embedable video player so instead of uploading videos to share across the web, now you can upload videos to facebook's player along the facebook ap.
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facebook says it has 3 billion video streams on its site every single day and that number is sure to get much longer once that video player is not just limited to facebook. >> julia boorstin, thanks so much. for more on the latest from facebook, bob peck with a buy rating on the stock. always good to see you. in terms of turning messenger into this sort of portal for e-commerce, how quickly can that happen? >> we think it's a big deal. we think messin messaging, one last things you do at night, one of the first things in the morning. the next logical step is e-commerce and payments. we think it's big deal. we value it around a $2 billion opportunity for them. >> by when whooefr amount of time? >> over the next three years or so. it depends op how quickly that ramp takes place. we have different conservative estimates as far as take rates, a bunch of different scenarios to look at it.
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but it could be much bigger than that. >> it can't be that easy though. what are some of the concerns in terms of not having that number materialize? >> i think the one big thing they bring to the platform or to the sellers is this 1.4 billion people. if you can bring that audience to any of these sellers, whatever it happens to be, whatever the merchandise happens to be, a small take rate of 10% or so is pretty reasonable. traditional take rates around 15%. bring in that mass audience and connecting them is the opportunity. >> there's nothing. i asked you what the rub would be. >> oh, sorry. yeah, no. >> what would the challenge be? >> so we spoke to our developers about this and we had a lot of our insight from developers on this and they have rr amped up over there. they're also amped up over the platform aspect. with the platform you actually expand your opportunity on facebook, right? so we valued that as well. it will facebook audience network over billion-dollar opportunity and that opens the gates and puts you in competition with twitter and google. the incremental data that
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facebook has is so unique. nobody else has this, including twitter or google. developers are excited about the opportunity, being able to mon tease other platforms and apps. >> at whose expense? >> yeah. i think the big shift you're seeing is the ad dollars going from desk top ultimately to mobile. right now on desk top google has the dominant share with double click. just by definition as facebook comes on the scene more on the mobile side, you'll see a big shift there. google, facebook, to a small degree, twitter carved up that market. >> but who's losing? >> ultimately at the end of the day would be anybody that's not provying that incremental data layer. take mobile ad networks that don't have the data layers that google that twitter or facebook have and they'll be losers in the scenario. >> bob peck, suntrust. >> we've liked facebook for a while. i think traded at an all-time high yesterday. obviously sold off today with everything else. rallies into earnings, poelss
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great numbers then gives up the ghost and trades off. feels like that's about to happen again. i still think it's going higher even with valuation. >> i think this deal puts pressure on google to do something perhaps with twitter. this is showing messaging is the way to go. google doesn't have that type of property and twitter is a unique property. i look at twitter on that. >> i agree. i think that would be a good move for google. they don't get credit for a lot of things and twitter it seems to me gets excessive credit so if they were to use the cash to buy twitter i think it would be good for both of them. >> i think it's good for google. bob talked about the threat to google and the move the mobile, but the same thing is happening for google. great facebook wants to be the operating system for the internet of things, and i think that's clearly where they're going. but i think google in some ways is already there. and to meitis a company that's underappreciated, undervalued, it has momentum. this is a trade that's working. face book's maxed out in the
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short run. >> the biotech sector getting racked today but there could be a bigger threat coming its way. hans bishop joins us after the break with the details. plus later it's time for the next round. intuit takes on western union in the battle for your money. ♪ ♪ (under loud music) this is the place.
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♪ ♪ their beard salve is made from ♪ ♪ sustainable tea tree oil and kale... you, my friend, recognize when a trend has reached critical mass. yes, when others focus on one thing, you see what's coming next. you see opportunity. that's what a type e does.
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and so it begins. with e*trade's investing insights center, you can spot trends before they become trendy. e*trade. opportunity is everywhere. welcome back to "fast money." a news update on pepsico. it has disclosed in a regulatory filing the ceo ease compensation for 2014, in 2014, the headline number is that indra nooyi made total compensation of around $22.5 million, that includes a
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$1.6 million salary as well as a $6.8 million long-term payout for performance payouts that were covering the years 2012 through 2014. that makes up the bulk of the increase year over year in her compensation. it is, if you look at 2013 and 2014, a 57% jump in compensation. the vast majority of which is tied to stock performance or at least performance compensation between the years of 2012 through 2014. so, again, big payout for indra nooyi, but remember, this is a stock that sits not too far away from record highs and hit those levels in 2014. so, again, a 57% increase, but the vast majority of which were incentive-based compensations, nonequity-related that covered the years of 2012 through 2014. back over the you guys. >> dominic chu, thanks so much. biotech getting hit across the board today. the xbi and others settling down
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more than 4%. the biggest risk to biotech's huge run could be ahead pap new bill could devstroy the sector s a whole. meg kicks off the interview. >> thanks, hans, for joining us. >> hi. >> tell us about this op-ed you published in forbes this week about this potential patent legislation coming up. you're seeing that big tech companies are seeking protections against patent controls and that could inadvertently hurt biotech companies. how would that work? >> yeah. an op-ed with my colleague bob nelson, a prolific biotech investor. you know, the reason that most of the great breakthrough in medical innovation happens in the united states the because of this unique ecosystem we have here, this blend of great doctors and scientists, very sophisticated ambassadors, and fantastic patent law. and what we're concerned about are some proposed changes to patent law, proposed by the tech companies that could have a
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really chilling effect on biotech. we think that these laws really give powerful companies even more power, and we think it will make it much harder for start-up biotech companies to raise money. >> and so we've already seen some legislation i think that you say has already potentially harm biotech companies. one thing we've been seeing a lot of in biotech is this review, carl bass, hedge fund guy, taking a shot at biotech stocks. how is this weakening the potential patent protections for biotechs? >> this new law goes much further than the example you're proposing. and there's a couple of things we're concerned about. the first is a clause called loser pays. so it means that giant companies can take lawsuits out against small companies, and if the small company loses they could be bankrupt by having to pay for the big company's legal fees. if that wasn't bad enough,
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there's another clause which is even scarier, and that is that not only could the small company be made bankrupt by these legal fees but other investors in that company and even the universities are license the patents could also have downside liabilities. so not only to you put your investment at risk, you're putting your bank account at risk if you invest these companies if this law passes. >> great perspective on this very important issue, hans. i want to switch gears because today is the day we saw a lot of pain across the board in the biotech sector at large. your company is at the crossroads of the area in biotech where people say there is, in fact, a bubble, a smaller cap company that deals with immu immunotherapy, specifically for cancer treatments, a lot of drugs in the pipe lin but none in the market, all in testing phases. can you speak to whether or not there is, in fact, a bubble? >> yeah. i think we're at one of those moments in science where we're on the pinnacle of some great
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discoveries. it's not just in companies like juno but across the sector in biotech we're seeing science play out in an interesting way, whether it be new treatments for alzheimer's that you commented on your show or whether it's the type of technologies that we have that are showing very promising early results in leukemia. i think the apps nswer to your question is if the science plays out, i think many of us are undervalued. if the science plays out, the opposite is true. we'll wait and see what the results from the trials are. >> does it matter whether or not the holder of your stock is a specialist in this area, a portfolio manager maybe who invests solely in health care and biotech versus a generalist? >> yeah. we clearly like investors that understand our space and understand our science. and we've worked very hard to build investors base that is familiar with biotech and takes a long-term view. certainly the horizons we're taking at juno are long term.
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we believe we can change the way that cancer is treated in a very fundamental way. and i think the early results that you're aware of in our leukemia trials are supportive of that. yes, it's important to us that our investors really understand the potential of what we're doing and the science that sits behind it. >> hans, we have to looift there but hope you'll come back soon. >> thank you very much. >> on their last conference call, they said they would have ten experimental products aimed at six different cancer targets in human studies in the next 12 months. >> the most exciting part of it, they've been showing tremendous results in solid tumors, but this could this could be applicable in things like brain cancer and others. >> blood canneser is a small portion but probably 80% of the research that blood cancers coming bas and it's working on hard tumors and other things. he mentioned juno, if the science works, which it does,
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not get wonky with t-cells and such, but the science is working and if it does work this stock is worth lot more than the $8 billion market cap. put a couple more zeros at the end of that. that said, the stock is crazy volatile but there's a lot behind the science that's working. >> you have to do your home work. a lot of companies are burning through cash. this is the big question for a lot of names. this company has proven it's doing all right. >> news alert, news on american express. mary thompson is following that. >> the company held an investor day today and a lot of people were focusing on it because they want more details about what happened with the company losing that costco co-branding agreement. some color on that from the company's ceo saying renewing it meant more risk with a lower return for the company and basically what costco wanted was a credit utility for its clients and he said when i hear the word utility i thought that would allow american express to provide a differentiated product and that's really what the
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company is focused on. also ganic opportunities they had they thought would bear greater returns. the company's cfo says american express the focused on keeping those costco clients they could lose when the co-branding relationship wins. so far efforts to do so in canada have born fruit. he said if the efforts do not continue to show good results, we could see a restructuring sometime at the end of this year, next year, and that could be a code word for job cuts and american express. also saying the first quarter outlook on earnings right now modestly better than the full-year outlook, a flat to slightly better analysts looking for earnings of $1.36 up from $1.33. knew will be impacted by lower gasoline prices as well as others. >> despite today's rally, the big oil companies are taking a hit from the drop in price. who's reaping the benefits? what one analyst is calling the oil wealth transfer after the break. plus, brian kelly takes you
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under the radar for what he thinks the next big threat to the oil market is.
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oil bucking the trend and finishing higher. our next guest says when it comes to oil and airline stocks a major shift could be womaning in wealth this year. hunter, always good to see you. >> you too. >> it's interesting because you crunch numbers for exxonmobil and chevron and the amount less they're paying to shoulder, almost the exact amount you say airlines will be giving its shareholders. >> just the cut in exxon alone would have funded this sort of redistribution between dividends and buybacks we're seeing in the airline industry. mopgs the big guys we cover we expect that amount to double to about there are 10 billion this year via dividends because the market is not valuing these airline stocks at all given the fall in oil prices. they're turning around and buying back stock with it. >> one of the stocks you say could pay something is american. it's not traded well. i mean, until it got added to the s&p 500. capital return, is that going to
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be enough for investors, enough to own the stock? >> it's definitely a catalyst and something the bulls are looking to ramp and american i think to its credit has sort of managed expectations well by how much stock they will buy back. we got this idea for this note because we noticed that now exxonmobil buy back about a billion dollars a quarter which is almost the exact same amount that american bought back in the fourth quarter, which is the most by far they've ever done. so i think that's a good baseline expectation going forward, which i think is going to be a good catalyst for the stock. but airlines in general need to show they've got more control over their business right now. capacity growth has been a little on the high end. it's causing a little bit of lowering. so until they get control of pricing back i'm not sure the buybacks will be enough to get the multiples back to where they should be but it's a good bridge until they do. >> this industry has had quite a bit of debt over its history. what about being more conservative in buying back debt, delevering the balance sheet instead of giving it back to shareholders? >> some are. delta and united are paying down
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debt. the reality is interest rates have come down so much over the past couple years airlines have been refinancing debt at much lower rates. you look at the fact some of these multiples are trading at low single-digit multiples on a one year forward basis and there are coupons and the average debt is 4% or 5%, the amount of accretion that occur whence you buy back at such low multiples is far more than shareholder wealth. but there is some deleveraging too. >> what's your top speck? >> spirit probably, but lot american. but spirit is our top pick. >> thanks for come big. good to see you. >> thank you. >> january. >> you might want to look at the airlines since -- what am i talking about? we did a street fight where we took the bear case against pete and tim. >> you apparently have a story to tell. >> no story. i'm just pointing that out. alaska air is one of your top
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picks. that stock had a huge run. it's pulled back a little bit. feels like the next leg higher -- >> the least like stock i've covered. it's a phenomenal business. the returns are here, valuation here, probably the biggest gap of all the stocks i cover with the turns and valuation not right. but that stock should go higher in the next couple year taos. >> tim, quick. >> i like american. the case of a company that's underperformed a little bit. there's probably more capacity and more leverage in the multiple as the cycle expands a bit. one thing hunter said a lot of these guys have 300, 4 hushgts, 500 basis points of multiple expansion in the next couple years because their businesses are different. you have to watch it. >> sticking with oil here, let's look at this video out of yemen where intense rebel fighting is rocking the region spreading to the port city of aiden, reportedly prompting the president to flee the area. a look at how yemen's conflict could spill into the oil market.
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>> this conflict has been going on far while but two events happened in the last couple day, one, the president fleeing today, but more importantly, saudi arabia, right here, amassing troops along the border. you don't talk about yem than much but look at where it's located. that's the most important thing. the gulf of aidan and the red sea. here is the persian gulf. about 17 million barrels a day of oil come out of the persian gulf. most goes to asia but a good portion comes through the gulf up the red sea over here to the suez canal. if you have conflict here, you not only have now an unfriendly government and conflict in yemen but you also have somalia, which is also on the gulf. if anybody's watched "captain phillips," you know the piracy issues they have there. this choke point and this choke point are what oil analysts are concerned about. i talked earlier in the show about the potential of geopolitical risk increasing the price of brent. all this oil is going up to europe. this is a brent and europe
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event. and, you know, it's a tail risk but it is really heating up and absolutely something investors need to keep an eye on. >> does this mean that the spread narrows if brent is going to go higher? and does that mean we should be worried about the refining trade? wider? >> it will go the other way. talking about supply disruption in brent. >> so it goes higher. >> brent's higher. >> brent is higher and we're saying disruption pushes brent more high. >> sorry. you're right. >> and wti continuing to suffer from supply issues. what brian is talking about ultimately there is a supply disruption bid to brent that's existed a long time. the question is what has happened to that bid over the last 18 months when we've had a lot of issues? part is iran and part is other supply. i think that spread goes to 15 bucks by the summer. i agree with brian. i don't know if yemen is going to be that linchpin. no question that brent is what
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you follow. >> wti and brent move higher, would we continue to see that fit's a brent issue? >> i think you could see both move higher. that spread will move higher. both will be in tandem. i guess the only thing that would change that if that spread would compress is possibly if we decrease or get rid of the export rules here in the u.s. then that spread would compress. so if you have a supply disruption in middle east, which actually causes the u.s. to allow experts of oil, then wti would come up to the brent price. "pops & drops," pop for lumber liquidators, up 11%. >> a dangerous one. couple things. i think janne came out today with a higher target. also calls are down with the consumer protection service for them. this is so dangerous. the short interest is too big. stay away. >> gopro up 1%. >> a bad take far company that's
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been a notable drop at a good tape. $40. i don't think you need to be short this company. hard for me to see a rerating from these levels higher. i would be neutral but i'm not a fan of the stock. >> netflix down 4%. >> past support becomes resistance. stock dead there yesterday on a couple upgrades. a chance to move back to 400. i think this is a push down to $400. >> drop for trina solar. >> the whole space down on a competitor not having great earnings. these stocks have probably got ahead of themselves with the grip they had on the yield codes they were all developing. i would stay away. i still like trina solar but give it a month to set out. >> up next on "fast money," heading back to the payment space. paychex has kicked out ebay to advance in the next round. tonight we have a red-hot and i mean red-hot matchup between western union and intuit. which company will move on,
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16 tech teams compete for best title. an exclusive preview on cnn.com/pro. tonight heading back to the payments conference this time with the battle between western union up 10% on the year and turbotax maker intuit. don't forget tweet us and tell us whether you prefer western union or intuit in the first round. the viewer favorite will, in fact, count as one vote and could break a tie. e-trader gets 30 second to make their cases. 30 seconds on the shot clock. tim. >> western union continues its fantastic cinderella run. a lot of people think they have too much competition, facebook, but it's low demographic, emerging market, cash based. growing earnings 35%. they've withstood these competitive threats over and over again. western union. >> beakers. >> i'm on the exact opposite side. i know western union is facing life-threatening challenge -- >> life-threatening. >> from block chain
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applications. if you don't know what i'm talking about that means big coin. there's already processes in place that you can transfer money across the world for free, for zero. western union has problems. intuit, death and taxes are certain and intuit is involved in that. >> a split. karen? >> i have to go with b.k. i'm a valuation kind of girl and western union on its face would look like it's much cheaper but i think you're buying a melting ice cube. but one day it could just melt immediately. quick books growing nicely, not the cheapest thing out there, but turbotax doing nicely against h&r block. >> sit going to be a tie, guy? >> no. it's not. like last night. intuit,uick books growth up 50% year over year, improving margins. yes, valuations are stretched but the last time the pony express was cool, they were in the backfield. you know what i mean. >> this company over and over has thee threats.
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>> this is not a debate. we're done. intuit. western union is out. on twitter you also said intuit. >> there you go. >> so intuit advances to the next round. this would be a good one, intuit versus paychex. tomorrow back to our tech conference with a huge matchup between apple and hewlett-packard. the winner will then take on cisco in the knicnext round. tune in or logon for exclusive previews ahead of each matchup. so exciting. still ahead, why one trader thinks there's more pain ahead for the semiconductor space. everyone talks whe, about what happens when you turn sixty-five. but, really, it's what you do before that counts. see, medicare doesn't cover everything. only about eighty percent of part b medical costs. the rest is on you. [ male announcer ] consider an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like all standardized medicare supplement insurance plans, it could really save you in out-of-pocket medical costs.
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with today's sell-off, people are betting more pain to come. >> the semiconductor holders traded about 17 times the average tayly put volume today and most was the result of two very large trades that accounted for about 110,000 contracts between them and the larger of two was a diagonal put spread,
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the april 55 may 53 put spread and substantial open interest on those april 55 puts so i think what might have been happening is somebody who owned the april puts might have been rolling down and out to the may 53 puts which would allow them to capture all the earnings that will be upcoming and they spent about $1.40 for those 53 strike puts. basically what what you're looking sat a $250 million noti notional bet to the downside that there could be more pressure to the semiconductors through the earnings season. one final point i would make, at $1.40, they cost a little over 2% so it might be a fairly inexpensive hedge for somebody who decided they would try to stay long with the market volatile as it is. >> who would be a buyer of the semiconductors on this pullback? anyone? >> not wholesale, but intel it would be interesting. you have 29 as your stopgap point. >> come ong the last block, i think intel more than qualcomm i think you have more downside.
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to me it's a place writ's a more diversified model, great valuation. >> check it out friday 5:30. coming up on "mad money," small business and skinny ties. cramer talks to pbh, marty mucci, get a look at employment. we have your fist move tomorrow when we come back.
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cal vip and tommy are known around the globe. can they do an about-face? and the key jobs number. "mad money" is next. time for "the final trade." around the horn, tim. >> state of the europe, san. >> brian. >> wti was up today. bno. that's the way to play it. >> karen finerman. >> i like the oih, the oil service etf. >> guy? >> heady show tonight. >> big market day. >> debate on the desk. >> love that. >> bonds should have gone higher today. they didn't. interesting. i think they'll catch up tomorrow. tl tlshgs g tlt will get you done. >> worst day on the nasdaq since april of 2014.
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see how the market opens tomorrow. i'm melissa lee. see you tomorrow. the mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money". welcome to cramerica. my job is to educate and teach you, especially on days like today. call me at -800-743-cnbc or tweet me@jim cramer. after a vicious night in maent may not, you know, one of those real head bapgers, i used to stop at a place called the holland tunnel dive, a place we us

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