read you have to be patient. you have to know where growth is. all of things are all correct. i think the best advice here was what warren buffett said when he was looking for a chief investment officer. he said he wanted an independent thinker, someone with emotional stability and a keen understanding of the institution. >> thanks so much. thanks, everybody, in detroit. it's been fun. "power lunch" begins now. >> halftime is over. power lunch and the second half of the trading day start right now. >> all right. from detroit back to headquarters here with mandy drury, i'm tyler smathison. a big problem is lurk and more investors are starting to get concerned, and you do not want to be the last one in the surf. >> that's right. more trouble in paradise as puerto rico's go, general obligation bonds, taking a rating cut. that tax-free income is getting more and more risky, ty. >> diet soda taking some lumps now. diet coke falling in the rankings, but behind pepsi. what's it mean for stocks and the future of the beverage biz?

mandy. >> we start with the markets and the fear in the markets specifically. volatility is really moving. the vix is up 18% during this very volatile week and then the war between sunnis and shiites really heating up in yemen. saudi arabia launching strikes and threatening a ground invasion against iranian-backed militias. ty. >> all right. thanks very much. the other big risk folks, is puerto rico. a number of big hedge funds have exposure to its bonds, and some are calling it america's version of greece. the food isn't as good. fitch downgrading puerto rico's general obligation and related debt two notches. deeper now into junk. fitch concerned about the island's ability to carry out a financing plan and the willingness of the legislature to pay. earlier this month puerto rico delayed a $3 billion bond sale, and now we're going to move forward here until may and lawmakers are considering whether to default on government issued debt.

you just saw that television get made right there. stand closer move this way. >> okay. we really want to drill down one potential risk right now. the lack of liquidity in certain parts of the market. vice chairman of the federal reserve, stan fischer, spoke about it today and a major central bank warning about it as well. >> michelle carruso-cabrera is here with a story about liquidity. >> we have been hearing that it's difficult to buy and sell corporate bonds. in part because fewer and fewer investment banks are providing that service. when there is little liquidity, that's what it's called, large price swings are much more likely. it's much easier to be surprised by the price you actually get when you buy or sell because the offers you are getting aren't very competitive due to lack of players trying to get your business. the bank of england just the latest football institution to say they are concerned about the inability to buy and sell bonds, putting out a statement warning market participants that some securities are priced as if they're going to be easy to sell when the time comes. what they call market liquidity

risk, which "could lead to heightened volatility and undermine financial stability." now, stan fischer, vice chairman of the u.s. federal reserve, spoke about the issue in berlin at a banking conference citing the impact that could be on mutual funds and etf's which hold bonds. >> open-end mutual funds and exchange traded funds now hold the greatest share of debt. each of these say their assets are redeemable immediately. the underlying assets are normal. in some cases, especially liquid. there's a considerable concern that it could be that come a crisis there could be something analagous to a run on things like that. >> we're mostly talking about corporate bonds, but the bank of england and many other institutions point to remember the flash crash in treasuries back in october? that's a big red warning flag.

what happened that day? that should be the most liquid market in the world, and if you are seeing huge moves like that is there something wrong with market structure? >> thank you. >> let's bring in rick santelli on the cme on this topic as well. what are you seeing with regards to liquidity in bond land? >> you know, whether it's aging or evaporation, what's going on is a very slow process, but it's going on a little bit every day, so for most you look at the markets. it's not as though you see anything is different, and then as you mention, you have a day like october 15th where it's almost a digital tight move with 28 basis points in the middle that just evaporate along with the liquidity, but it is much more significant issue potentially. whether it's zero interest rate policy, quantity takive easing it's kind of funny that stan fischer looks so concerned, and i bet he is, but really all roads lead to the central bankers as to the main issue here and the main problem, and that is is that if you want to

tickle me elmo doll and there's no inventory at the local toy store, you get the picture. we can't tell a lot, but corporate inventory is needed to make markets, so as inventories aren't there the market makers aren't there. will it be an issue? it will. will it be an issue tomorrow? probably not. >> much of an issue that is also a question. thank you very much, rick santelli. let's get now to brian sullivan with a news alert. i understand you have been counting rigs sir? >> i have been counting rigs, and there are fewer to count, but not by much. baker hughes recently rig count data coming out and showing the number of oil rigs week over week fell but only 12 rigs. we lost 56 i believe, it was last week. more the week before. the number of rigs falling off by 12 but the rate of regulars coming off continues to slow. in fact guys this is the lowest drop-off in drilling rigs since december so we know these rigs have been being pulled out there certainly because oil prices have gone down but it does look like the trends are that maybe many of these oil and

gas producers are finishing with dropping off rigs. rigs fell down accident but only by 12. the lowest rate of rig drop-off since december. perhaps production is starting to bottom out. >> very interesting. we're sitting at $49.87. we're off by 3% today. you know what brian, wti has had its best week since all the way back in 2011. thank you very much. let's go to dominik with a market flash. dom. >> mandy accident we're watching shares of black berry, which are higher off of the mid-morning levelled here. if you take a look at what's happening with the stock this after the company's fourth quarter profit topped expectations at 4 cents a share, compared to the 4 cent loss forecast rsh refuse knees missed as services sales were higher than hardware sales, so you can see there unbalanced. it's a 2.5% update tyler, for blackberry. back to you. now to the latest on the germanwings plane crash. we're learning that the co-pilot who originally brought down that jet may have been hiding an

illness. nbc's claudio is near the crash site in the alps. >> well this is an unspecified illness, the german investigators said that they found some sick leave certificates issued by a doctor from taking that was he afraid he wouldn't be able to continue his job as a co-pilot? we'll have to wait and see. one thing is for sure he did not tell about this illness or about this sick leave certificates to his employees or the work environment so, this is what investigators are looking into right now especially news that the investigators said they didn't find a suicide knight note or claim of responsibility. they do not believe there are political or religious motives. it all seems to point to that

direction, to that particular illness. we don't know the nature of it but we hope to learn more about it in the next few days. >> thank you very much. claudio lovonga. >> as we learn more about the tragedy, we continue to search for answers about what can be done to keep our skies and cockpits safer and try to prevent these kinds of incidents to the extent they can be prevented before they happen? let's bring in john bolia, a member of the national transportation safety board from 1995 to 2004. good to have you with us. i'll ask a couple of questions in no particular order, but let me begin with this one. it seems strange to me in this day and age that we still depend on probably vintage 1960 or 1970 black boxes to tell us what went wrong or what went on in the cockpit when really we could get, couldn't we real-time streaming data out of these aircraft? >> yes, the technology does

exist today for real-time streaming. the challenge is enough band width. there's upwards of 20,000 airplanes in the air at any moment, commercial airplanes absorbing that's a lot of data. >> so it's a lot of data. what about the idea that some have argued for, some pilots have objected to of having cameras in the cockpits so that everything that goes on there is recorded? >> well, while i was at the board, we voted for cameras in the cockpit, and the reason why i voted at that time for the cameras was because the vast majority of our airplanes were analog. today the vast majority of our airplanes are digital. as a result, the flight data recorders can gather a huge amount of data. the a-380, the latest airbus airplane, i was told ten years

ago they were collecting 1,800 points of data that they were sampling on that airplane. that's a huge amount of data. the a-320 that went down air asia airplane went down had 1,200 perimeters that it was recording. with that amount of information being recorded we don't need the video cameras as much as we did in the past. a, it would be nice to see maybe sometimes. it wouldn't have done a damn thing to prevent this accident, so i think we can move on from video recorders given the data that's collected. >> interesting. interesting. i guess one can never totally foil someone who is diabolical and determined enough to do what this pilot seemed determined to do. i wonder if the level of psychological profiling and ongoing medical evaluation of pilots is where it needs to be in light of this.

my guess is that there are physical examinations that pilots have to do every year or every six months for a while. the level of mental evaluation may be much more episodic and infrequent. does it need to hang? >> it does need to change. it's going to take a monumental effort to do that because we have a series of laws that protect the medical privacy of individuals, and the faa is limited in what they can say. they can actually revoke your medical certificate and they're not allowed to tell you your employer that they've done that. it's really a challenge today. we've got layered laws for privacy, and how do we get through it? i really think that it's time that the aviation community sit down with the mental health specialists and sit around the table and start the discussion on how we can deal with this, and maybe that -- maybe at some point that can be expanded to

society as a whole because industry across america is having similar problems. >> all right. john thank you for those very interesting answers. we appreciate it. john golia, a member of the national transportation safety board from 1995 to 2004. mandy. >> thank you very much. well, the latest data on the u.s. economy raising the red flag on corporate profits. what it's signalling about earnings season, which is just around the corner, folks, and also get ready for a wild ride. no, not the wild swings in the stock market. this is the world's tallest and fastest roller coaster. you will not believe how high it climbs and how fast it goes.

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>> won't you take me on a sea crews? check out what's happening with carnival cruising. in terms of revenue it beat on its latest quarterly profits with an insist from higher demand and lower fuel prices. they came ahead of estimates. that's carrying over the success into other cruise ships as well. you can see carnival. check out royal caribbean and cruise lines, and remember to stay tuned because later on power lunch in the 2:00 hour mandy, of course we've got the carnival cruise line ceo coming on to talk about ships. back over to you guys. >> we're looking forward to it. thanks, dom. amazon reportedly in talks to

buy -- this would be the biggest acquisition yet for amazon. the stock is up by just over 1%. shares of dow chemical jump willing by nearly 4% after the company split off its chlorine business. the $5 billion deal will merge with -- american them with olen corp. quick silver ousting its ceo after they slashed guidance for 2015. the company's cfo also resigning. the stock is down more than 73% over the past year. it's down by merely 12% today alone. ty. >> well mandy, forget a bank loan. you don't need it. if you are a full-time house flipper, there's a new and fast growing way to fund your flip. crowd funding. we'll explain how you can do it. plus -- >> coming up a power pitch that leaves nothing to the imagination. >> life-like 3-d at the click of a button in their own home or at the store. >> but will the panelists see his activision as the next big thing? or couch it? >> how worried are you that these guys are going to boil

this technology down into an every tablet every laptop and basically make you irrelevant? >> stay tuned to find out.

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tell your doctor if you've been to areas where certain fungal infections are common, and if you've had tb, hepatitis b, are prone to infections, or have flu-like symptoms or sores. don't start humira if you have an infection. >>visit humira.com and talk to your rheumatologist. humira. this is a body of proof! it is time for the power pitch where one entrepreneur hatsz six seconds to convince a panel of experts that his or her start-up has what it takes to be the next big thing. >> my name is -- the ceo of

cimagine media. my wife always incysts on consulting with me before making a purchase. i'm always afraid of giving her the wrong answer. in order to save marriages and thanks to our team's know-how gaining one of the best computer labs in the world, we have koreaed cimagine. it provides a reality platform that can be easily integrated and used across multiple channels. it enables consumers to use the smartphone, tablets, and wearables to visualize products in life-like 3-d at the click of a button in their own home or at the store. cimagine improves the shopping experience and increases sales. chosen by microsoft as one of israel's most promising start-ups and with the largest group of -- cimagine's technology addresses a need in an extremely large market. come join us in a journey towards success. >> and welcome to today's power pitch. i'm mandy drury. well, you just saw today's pitch, but now let's meet the

panel. first, board member of the new york action newsing es alicia syrett. she advises more than 25 start-up wrshz maxwell ryan apartment therapy, a website devoted to all things home. he also wrote the book on interior design. actually, he wrote four books on interior design. and in seattle nat burgess. angel investor and corum group. that's a firm that provides more than $1 billion. great to have you all with us. yawn where i you're in the hot seat, sir. first question goes to you. >> i know that you work with shop direct a huge u.k. retailer. tell us a little bit more about other recognizable brand names that you might be working with or that are in your client pipeline? >> unfortunately, i cannot disclose the names, but you already signed up one u.s. customer as one of the leading ten in furniture and hopefully you will hear more names as we go on. >> when you pull in when you go to retailer and you say give me your inventory of furniture, how much work does it take to get all of the information because if it's too difficult, i think

they're going to step back. >> we wanted to make it as easy as possible for retailers. all we need to know is which product category they want to start with. we take care of everything in the back ground. we take the information that we need from the product pages, and we just give them a single line of code they need to put on the product pages. press the button that the consumer needs to click, and that's pretty much it. >> by now we've seen the occulus, intel real sense, polographic technology. how worried are you that these guys are going to boil this technology down into an every tablet, every laptop and basically make you irrelevant? >> the technology is evolving over time, and it actually gives us more tools to do better visualization, which is pretty much what we do. remember that we provide a solution for the end user consumers. consumers what they have today at least is smartphones and tablets. >> what's to stop the big guys from doing the exact same thing? >> i believe what they're doing is using infrastructure that's companies such as us to provide

the best volume. again, it's not -- i think those things are complimentary and getting in the right direction and helping, you actually. >> okay. one of your value propositions you help retailers boost sales. once they integrated with you, how do you measure results? >> most are done by the retailer, just as they measure anything else on the website or at the store, et cetera. there's a customer id basically that identifies the people and tells them who the consumer is. they can track it on their analytic systems, and we do our analytics of what people did, what people looked at, which colors, which products, and report that back. >> how many people will click on it? do you know? do you have any idea before you go in? >> it's actually larger than the average click on the typical button that's on the page. >> so it made them happy? >> it made them happy. >> that's what i needed to hear. >> it seems like every customer has a budget to look at things and do a drive-by but no one has budget to actually buy it and become a customer. are you seeing that with the big retailers? >> we believe the budget depends really on what?

sometimes it comes from innovation budget which is more of the bigger companies. once it's rolled out, then people see that it's going to be a must-have. >> we all heard what yawny had to say. are you in or out? >> if i was afraid at first to be out on the company given that the team worked missile defense systems in the past but luckily, i like it a lot. i think augmented reality has a potential to really shape the e-commerce world in a completely different way, and i love the b 2 b sass model. i'm in. >> if this is a retail facing plant, if it was just a consumer, i wouldn't go for it at all but because is he working directly with retailers and he says he has a pipeline of people that -- who have tested it and like it i like it. however, i have one cavat. i don't think the furniture industry is going to be a big business for this. if i were to really invest in this, i would actually want to see something going well beyond furniture. furniture is sleepy and slow. i think this might be a good place to test it but it's not going to be a big win here. >> so that's -- >> that's a yes, but --

>> that's a yes, though. okay. sounded like it was veering towards a no there. okay. that's a yes. two yeses. nat, what about you? >> one, you have a background in marketing, business development, and as well as r & d, which is huge, and then secondly, i have looked at technology like this all over the world, and yours, frankly, is the best. it's impressive. i think you have a shot at building a real company here, and i'm in. >> wow, three yes's. do you know how rare that is? what's your reaction? >> thank you very much. i believe in the product, and i'm happy that everybody believes in it too, and looking forward to a bright future. let's see how that plays out. >> best of luck. thank you for coming in. thanks to janni and our panelists. that is today's power pitch. >> a rare three in's. what about you? are you in or out on cimagine. you can tweet us your thoughts using the _#power pitch. for more on power pitch, you can visit power lunch.cnbc.com. also, ty we have another power pitch update for you. back in october we had college

students, ali, and johnny. they came in and pitched their start-up called new grounds food. it basically makes coffee that you can eat as a bar. well since that broadcast, the founders tell us e-commerce sales of their coffee bars are growing 275% month over month. over 100 locations from grocery stores to local coffee shops now carry those bars and new grounds food has raised more than $100,000 in funding as well. another good story to come out of power pitch. >> that was great. three yes's. that's amazing. let's move on now to the bond market where rick santelli is tracking the action at the cme. hi, rick. >> hi, tyler. you know i guess the quickest way to see what treasuries have done on the day, we are down three basis points on the week. we're up three basis points. if you open up the chart, you can see it on the two-day. if you open up the chart for a month to date well what's fascinating is it might tell you the range. basically 2% down to around 186 until we get to of course the first friday of any given month

where you get a good deal of volatility along with fed meetings. if you look at the euro currency on a month to date chart, it definitely continues to hold. just keep in mind we settled last week at 108.20. we're now at 109.20. we're up a handle. the key level still remains around 110.5. tyler, it's all yours. >> thank you very much, rick. the latest read on the u.s. economy raising red flags about corporate profits. what it's signalling about the crucial earnings season that is just over the next sort of hillside. plus, if you flip houses and find it now impossible to get a bank loan? listen up. we have a new way to finance. you can call me shallow... but, i have a wandering eye. i mean, come on. national gives me the control to choose any car in the aisle i want. i could choose you... or i could choose her if i like her more. and i do. oh, the silent treatment.

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purchase any new verizon wireless smartphone or tablet from comcast. visit comcast.com/wireless to learn more. hello. i'm sue herrera, and here's your cnbc news update for this hour. senate minority leader harry reid is backing new york senator charles schumer to succeed him

as democratic leader. reid issued that endorsement shortly after he said he would be retiring next year. nor elizabeth warren telling nbc news that she is not running for that post. greece says since its creditors a long-awaited list of reforms with a pledge to produce a small budget surplus this year. that's in the hopes that it will unlock badly needed cash. the e.u. and imf lenders will start cussing that list a bit later today. iraq's prime minister visited a military base near tikrit last night to meet with military commanders and be briefed on their progress since u.s. air strikes began. the iraqis are trying to take back the city from the islamic militant group. apple's ceo tim cook plans to give away his fortune. cook, who is worth at least $120 million, told fortune magazine that after paying for his 10-year-old nephew's college education, he plans to give it all away. he says he wants to deliver a systemic approach to philanthropy rather than simply writing checks. and that is the cnbc news update

for this hour. back to you, ty. pretty generous. >> very nice indeed sue. stocks have moved between gains and losses for much of the morning, folks. knee now settled modestly into positive territory. a little less than 1% moves on each of the dow, s&p, and nasdaq. bertha coombs is following the movers. bob pasani is where he usually is. bob, you first. >> we're in a narrow trading range, but the trend still isn't quite clear. look at the s&p 500. by narrow i mean ten points. that's one of the narrowest trading ranges we've seen in a while. we were briefly on the negative side. by the way, we start the year january 21st at 20,058. where are we now? at 20,058. we've gone nowhere this year. we may be negative this quarter. not clear. . that would be the first time in a while we've seen a negative quarter for the first quarter of the we're. oil is down. energy stocks on the down side leaders. take a look there. some of the leaders are down side tech and financials.

energies are also on the weak side. railroads have had just a horrible time of it this week. kansas city southern warned earlier in the week it's down 11%. union pacific is weak. norfolk southern and csx overnight. genesee and wyoming, another regional railroad, also warned as well in the weakness there. commodities, tyler, like metals and coal have had a lot of problems, and here shipping a lot less of them. transports tyler, down 5% this week. back to you. >> bad week for transports. thank you very much, bob. let's go over to the nasdaq which is on pace for its worst week in more than five months. bertha tell us more. >> the worst week for more than five months. when you look at the nasdaq composite, it is still positive for the year. some big gainers today for this week really extending gains. kraft on the heels of that deal with 3g and also backed by warren buffett. today we're seeing blackberry move higher on the back of some better than expected earnings. actually posting a profit. yahoo saying it's going to be

giving back $2 billion to shareholders. those are among the gainers holding things up, and we're seeing a rebound today in the biotechs. biotechs for the week are down 5% but for the year they are up 15%. i would remind you that if you look back a we're ago, these same weeks the biotechs were down nearly 7%. some of this selloff is starting to look kind of cyclical in these fast movers like the biotechs. as far as the best performers this week take a look at the small cap energy etf. those have seen some buying over the last couple of weeks. of course, they have been beaten down this year. finally, it's the big cap that is are dragging things. apple down for the fourth out of fifth week and you're also seeing big-time losers like tesla and sandisk, of course after its warning. back to you. >> thank you very much bertha. let's get out to dominik for a market flash. dom. >> mandy, let's follow what bertha was saying about the biotechnology stocks. shares of biomeridian

pharmaceuticals are sharply higher. they're being helped along after analyst commentators were bullish. they boosted their price target on those biomarin shares. it used to be $90. a big boost there. there's potential for the company to get taken over at a big premium within the next 12 months. if things do go well with the company's experimental drug pipeline, so, again, tyler, some big moves here. 12.5% to the up side for those shares. >> thank you very much. we're talking a lot about stocks, but one of the reasons stocks are moving one way or the other, the u.s. economy. we've got numbers today steve liesman. >> bad news on corporate profits, but some better news on the consumer. our first read on the economy-wide profits. not just the public companies. the public and private ones. this is for the fourth quarter, and they sank 1.6%. the consumer was even stronger than first thought. here's that profit decline. 1.6%. a sharp comedown from the strong profits from the prior two quarters. you can see there's the biggest drags that were overseas corporate profits hobbled by strength in the dollar and

weakness in overseas economies, but hold on because corporate profs as a share of the economy, they dropped just .2 and at 14% according to morgan stanley, they are still near the all-time highs. very profitable. companies have been profitable on the domestic level. that's a good sign. it's the overseas that's really hurting. here's the overall numbers data we got this morning. no change in the 2.2% which had been reported in the second read. this is the third read. the consumer was revised up. where is the consumer? well, check it out right there. up 4.4%. the best gain since 2006. business investment, 4.7%. down from the prior read. still pretty healthy. housing not too bad, and a decline in government especially state and local for that quarter. now, here's -- do we have that chart on the gdp? we do not. most economists stuck with their forecast. there it is right there. you can see that's a pretty big comedown, and most economists are sticking with that forecast for even weaker growth in the

first quarter where now cnbc rapid update at 1.1% while the effects of the dollar will linger through the year but there's a question mark around the consumer. retail sales have been weak but we'll learn in march if that was really kind of a february weather phenomenon or a concern about a bigger deep. >> steve, thank you very much. mandy, over to you. >> if in doubt, blame the weather. lots of up and downs in the movements much the markets. right now a slightly to the up side for the nasdaq up by about .3%. those are lots of economic data to digest as we've been talking about housing gdp. what is the best strategy to maneuver all of this? let's bring in john chief equity strategist at -- and rob lutz. john, let's pick up where steve just left off, which is talking about corporate profits. how concerned about corporate profits are you? especially as the first quarter reporting season is just around the corner. >> they're not going to be good in the first quarter. i think we know that and the good news is they probably don't get a lot worse than they are

right now and the comparisons may get better. i think that's important to remember because the market tends to look forward in these things. they're still reasonably good. >> okay. so maybe you think, john that the corporate profits are about as bad as they're going to get, but what does that mean for your outlook for the u.s. market going forward? especially when you consider that year-to-date according to bank of america, merrill lynch data, $44 billion of outflows money flowing out of the u.s. and going over to europe worse start since 2009. how does this year end up here? >> i'm not a big fan of looking at flows. it's driving in the rearview mirror. the news hasn't been great. i have to admit. i think earnings are going to be okay. i still think that's not as important, though as what the fed does. the fed is still the single most important factor for the stock market, and i don't think the fed is going to tighten any time soon. i think they still are an upward

bias. earnings will be okay, but the fed will still be pushing money towards the economy and that flows through the capital market. >> let me get to you. what do you think the fed is going to do? you have an incredibly bullish forecast for the s&p. bob pasani is saying we're basically where we were at the beginning of the year. we've done nothing, and are you looking at 20% gains? really? 20% s&p? >> i believe the stock market is undervalued, and i think based on where we are today on interest rates, you could easily have the stock market trade at a 19 multiple on earnings for 2016 which would put it about 24.50. markets tend to go in phases and i think we're in the third phase of the bull market. the first phase is denial. no one wants to believe it. the second phase is acceptance. we're not there yet. i don't think we'll be there for another year or two, and the fed

has put themselves in a position where they are going to let these higher asset levels just continue to rise. >> i think investors need to stay fully invested today. >> rob, when do you think the fed is going to move? what's your timing on this? >> i would think later this year. they're very cool and i think the data we saw just this week, we saw one positive number one more neutral number. it's enough to cause the fed to go longer. don't forget what is this old rule of three steps and a stumble? meaning you really have to give three actions by the fed before really impacting the market? i think we have time. the first increase is not going to mean the market falls apart. i think the economy will be growing much stronger by the time they actually raise the rate and i think investors will have a lot more confidence then in the stock market. >> europe. definitely a bull. the bulliest of the bulls. thank you very much to both of you for joining us and can you

check out today's power play at power lunch.cnbc.com. tyler. >> mandy, we are on verdict watch that n that closely covered elin powell gender bias. it could impacts on hiring and firing throughout silicon valley. julia borstein live in l.a., and she's looking into the topic of women at venture capital firms. let's start with you. tell us the latest. >> we're going to take a while to get a verdict here. we'll see this men of six men and women started their second full day of deliberations in much the same way as they ended yesterday asking to hear testimony read back to them about ellen powell's claim that she was retaliated against at cliner perkins when she complained about being descriminated against because of her gender.

one of the people who wrote performance reviews that were allegedly in retaliation was managing partner timothy who testified early in the trial that he believed that ellen powell didn't have the genetic make swrup for some aspects of the job. her team has southeasted on that as a moment of clarity that there was sexism. of course, the firm says that that was just short-hand for their assertion that she was not up to the job. tyler. >> all right. thank you very much, scott. julia, you have been looking at the topic of women at vc funds. what did you find? >> well tyler, while cliner perkins is being sued for gender discrimination, it actually has a woman, mary meeker at its very highest level, which is more than any of the other top vc's can say. a look at excel, hor owi tz sv angel, graylock finds not a single woman at that top investing level. in fact, women comprise less than 6% of decision makers at

usvc firms that have raised over $100 million over the past six years. now, compare that to the executive ranks at say, facebook which is 23% female at that executive level. google's executive ranks 21% female. women are better represented at smaller vc's. they're 14% with under $50 million in assets under management. that's according to pitch book. it's not all bad news. women are better represented in roles including marketing partners cfo and coo. mark just founded a boot camp to give women the background they need to sit on boards. plus, we're seeing the rise of female driven funds. aspect ventures which has raised reportedly $150 million, which is large for a first fund was founded by women from two leading vc's. they say their mission is the idea that diversity adds to the bottom line. the head of broadway angels which is a female only angel investment group, tells me she expects a surge in women-driven funds saying v.c. and angel

investing is actually a great job for women. >> i know a number of women in that industry, and they absolutely love it and say exactly the same thing. thank you very much. flip a house with the help of a crowd, crowdfunding that is. it's gaining popularity among professional house flippers. how it is done next on "power lunch." but it doesn't cover everything. only about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. so consider an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like all standardized medicare supplement insurance plans they could save you in out-of-pocket medical costs. call today to request a free decision guide. with these types of plans, you'll be able to visit any doctor or hospital that accepts medicare patients. plus, there are no networks, and virtually no referrals needed. join the millions who have already enrolled in the only medicare supplement insurance plans endorsed by aarp...

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sdwlirchlgs minimal moves for equity. man versus atm in shanghai. a drunk man smashing an atm with a crowbar. the man known as lee surrendered to lis when he sobered up. he told authorities he accidentally put his credit card in the machine and then put in the wrong pass dote. the machine took his card wouldn't give it back to him. lee paid the bank nearly $3,000

in damages, was charged by police with intentional destruction of public and private property. that is an expensive hangover, and one of those mornings where you say i will never ever drink again, promise. manned where i. >> yes, he can promise. you can promise. okay. well, crowd funding has come to housing. house flippers can't always get the right loan from a bank so they opt for a bunch of little loans. diana ohlich joins us now. how does this work diana? >> well mandy, it's pretty seventh simple. roud funders provide short-term loans for house flippers. rising prices have brought the flippers back during the housing boom, but unlike then the big banks will not fuel the flips. as it turns out, you will. >> ben is flipping suburban full-time homes full-time at a fast flip. he is getting no help from the big banks. >> a w-2 without a pay stub they really won't even process the application. >> in this new era of tight

lending, he instead turned to the crowd, a crowd funding platform called realty shares. now he founded the company two years ago. >> we're an on-line marketplace for real estate investing. investors can create an account and access real estate investments across the country. >> for a minimum of $5,000 accredited investors can get in on his flips and in return he gets the money. albeit, at a far higher interest rate than the big banks. >> you can say that we're making less profit because we're paying the higher rates. i would look at it a different way that if we were trying to work with the banks, we would be lucky if we did one or two project az year. working with realty shares we've done 12 in the last 12 months. >> so here's what it would look like if you had invested in one of ben wallhood's house flips. you put in yourself $5,000. you get a 9% annualized return paid monthly. in eight months the loan matures, and then you get paid

back the principal. the maturity will generally be an estimate of the time it takes to buy, rehab, and set property. the loan of course is secured by the property and he has done homes priced anywhere from $100,000 to half a million dollars, and realty shares have done even bigger ones than that. guys. >> you get your $5,000 back in nine months? do i understand that? >> you get your $5,000 back and you get the interest on top of that that wallhood has been paying back. >> wow. >> it's a high interest rate. about 11%. >> that is pretty good. all right, di. thanks. the ups and downs in the stock market are nothing compared to this roller coaster. it is the world's tallest and fastest gigacoaster. would you ride it? i love roller coasters. you'll see the full video next.

this is my body of proof. proof of less joint pain. and clearer skin. this is my body of proof that i can fight psoriatic arthritis from the inside out... with humira. humira works by targeting and helping to block a specific source of inflammation that contributes to both joint and skin symptoms. it's proven to help relieve pain, stop further joint damage and clear skin in many adults. doctors have been prescribing humira for nearly 10 years. >>humira can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. serious, sometimes fatal infections and cancers including lymphoma have happened, as have blood, liver and nervous system problems, serious allergic reactions and new or worsening heart failure. before treatment, get tested for tb. tell your doctor if you've been to areas where certain fungal infections are common, and if you've had tb, hepatitis b, are prone to infections,

or have flu-like symptoms or sores. don't start humira if you have an infection. >>visit humira.com and talk to your rheumatologist. humira. this is a body of proof! now with the xfinity tv go app, you can watch live tv anytime.

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on the descent. members of the media got their chance to ride it. season pass holders gets their chance today. everyone else gets a chance to use that coaster tomorrow. i used to hate roller coasters. now i adore them. would you ride it? >> you would have to pay me a lot of money or a really big corn dog. i'm feeling ill. >> i'll supply the corn dog. we'll go down it. >> let's get our corn dogs and go on the roller coaster. might lose the corn dog halfway through, though. if you missed any the big stories of the past hour visit our site at power lunch.cnbc.com. t wr. is hedge fund the new dirty word? we'll explain why in the second hour of power. plus -- >> coming up, how a colonel of an idea turned into a second career. >> it's fun. it's a blank canvas. just allows you to be creative. >> escaping the cube next. i have a wandering eye. i mean, come on.

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and so it begins. with e*trade's investing insights center, you can spot trends before they become trendy. e*trade. opportunity is everywhere. >> a big hour on tap for this friday. including a second half of the week playbook that you cannot afford to miss. the real impact of increased mideast tensions on oil prices and the answer to that that might surprise you and why

f-u-n-d may be the bad word of the we're. mandy and tyler. >> i'm glad you finished that phrase. >> sticky. >> it was a pause there for emphasis. one financial consultant discovered a second career based on whole grains and what we've got a lot of here. hot air. >> my mom still asks me to go get a job all the time. >> hi. i'm jean founder of pop karma. but i used to work in finance. ♪ i spent about 12 years working in finance. i went to dartmouth for a business school. i worked in management consulting at morgan stanley, and after that american express. my interest in healthy food really started when i was at one of those health fairs where you can get your cholesterol taken,

and i was shocked that mine was worse than everyone else's. i started working with a dairy start-up called new york foods and left american express in 2010 to become the ceo of that company. i just met a lot of people in the stood industry that started their own companies. i thought why not? i started pop karma with my savings. i wanted a sophisticated kind of flavoring, and i didn't feel like there was anything really out there. it was just me and my popcorn chef as a consultant. it's been growing organically. we have walk-in business corporate business and then on-line is also a big channel. >> one of the perks of jean starting pop karma is i taste a lot of her popcorn. i'm ann mcgowan. i've known gene since business school. this is someone doing something from their heart and trying to do it in a world to make it a better place. >> making sure that everything is sustainably grown. the amount of popcorn we make on

a daily basis ranges from 30 gallons to over 200 gallons. our flavors are unique. kyoto mix, which is a japanese seaweed miso. we've done middle eastern zatar. i never think about going back into finance, no. i feel like we're really building something, but there's so much left to do. >> let's get a quick look of what's happening with the markets. i've got here behind me the ten sectors on the s&p. the biggest gaining sector is health care. the biggest losing sector is energy which is certainly no surprise today, considering wti crude is down about 3% today, but, ty it's overall been a great week for crude. i think it's up about 7%. the best week since -- >> very strong moves. we've had big moves in the market. every day here at cnbc is interesting in the markets. today, hey, not so much. we have basically little mini-moves for the s&p 500. the dow and the nasdaq and that is how we go out for the week. >> we do indeed.

have a great weekend. don't change the channel because you've still got another fantastic hour of power coming your way with mr. brian sullivan. >> way to sell it, mandy. >> it is 2:00 on wall street. it's the exact same time in cincinnati ohio. the dow trying to avoid five straight losing days. oil trying to finish finishing below the $50 a barrel mark. i'm brian sullivan. the cincinnati reference not random. the queen city's own miss sky line chili is in for melissa lee. you have a big exclusive with the ceo of carnival cruise lines coming up later on in the show. what are you going to ask him about? >> thank you for that wonderful introduction. the stock is up nicely. the quarter was very solid. we're going to talk to him about what was behind it. was it increased bookings or cheaper fuel costs? also, you know the dollar.

>> oh how -- >> jinx. no, but seriously, this is a big deal for tourism industry. we've seeb it already impacting the leaks of tiffany's saying fewer tourists in the united states. all of the hotel chains. especially the global cruise operateors are keeping an eye on this. they did have to cut because of the strong dollar. >> big interview. we look forward to it. also be sure to ask how a boat that big can float. let's bring in mark president and cio of janne capital management. let's get your look at the overall market? does the dow end the year higher or lower than it is now? >> in a word brian, higher and although we think the glide path between now and there to finish higher is going to be bumpy. we expect more volatility in 2015. we had it earlier this year.

we expect more of the same. we don't think it's going to be enough to derail the bull market but the gains that we're expecting out of the market for the dow jones and s&p 500 in our view is likely to be in the middle single digits at best. >> all right, mark. let's get now to your picks. mcdonald's beaten up for years. this year investors seem to have said they're loving it once again with the stock. you'll forgive me for that. >> i think hopefully it's the likelihood of change as the consequences of change in the sea. it's a stock that hasn't moved since basically 2011. it's a dividend aristocrat though. a company that raises dividends consecutively for the last 38 years. we think there's an opportunity to, if you will, repurpose mcdonald's to make it cool again in the senses of being able to draw back some of that migration away from its menu to a fast casual restaurants. in addition to that, there's a hands to maybe take some of the

bloat out of the menu offerings that added to complexity in the whole processing and kind of process to window delivery of fast food coming out of mcdonald's, and i think the combination of the two hopefully will grab some same store sales activity that's going to help to boost share prices meantime. it makes it 3.5% dividend. >> 3.5% is not bad in this market. another pick another mega cap name, ge. now, ge, mark has been making a bigger and bigger push into oil and gas than energy. right now that's not looking like the best move. do you believe that will ultimately pay off for the company? >> they're diluting the amount -- once again, a great dif dent story. cut its def denned to 2009.

as a consequence, we think long-term and energy are going to be powerful themes to drive ge forward and in the meantime their valuation of four times forward earnings is pretty cheap among peers in the market at large. >> the dow ends the year higher. you like mcdobld's and ge. i wish you a happy weekend, mark. sfwlo thank you. >> let's move on to oil because saudi war planes targeting in yemen's capital for the second straight day. this as egypt now says it is prepared to send ground troops into yemen to try to help stabilize its government. oil, a big factor on this news. it is down a day and up sharply on the week. let's now bring in robert shapiro, co-founder and chairman of sonicon and the monetary fund as well along with many things that would take the whole interview to replicate. i'm going to jump into the interview. >> you don't believe what is happening now in yellen is going to have that beg of an impact on oil prices. yemen is not really an oil producer, but saudi arabia is getting involved so state your thesis, please.

>> well the fact is that this conflict between the rebels and the saudis and the other sunni arab states really has no direct affect on the supply or demand for oil. we've seen a lot of disruptions around the world, problems in iraq problems in nigeria, problems in libya, problems in venezuela. that has hasn't affected the price of oil. the saudi goal here is to take out the capacity of the rebels to launch missile attacks on saudi arabia and particularly on mecca, which is of course something of an obsession with the saudi leadership. understandably so. that can be accomplished fairly quickly. this was a very large, coordinated air strike and the

rebels have given no indication of wanting to block the gulf of aidan and the other straits through which a lot of oil flows. >> therein lies, robert the risk. also, the rebels are allegedly being backed by iran which is a major oil producer around the world. and would like to by the way, sell more oil around the world by sort of reaching out with an olive branch to united states. what's iran's role in this? do you believe that ultimately iran will be pumping and selling more oil one year from today than it is right now? >> well, i think everybody is going to be pumping a little more oil than won't one year from now than today, but the iranians have no interest in this turning into a larger armed conflict. they do back the rebels but this is the traditional sunni versus shia conflict that we see across the middle east. of course there's also a third

character in yemen, and that's al qaeda. al qaeda and the arabian peninsula that is not alive to either force, either to the saudi, u.s. sunni, president hadi forces or to the houthi iran forces either. >> yeah. just to complicate the matter further, we have these talks between western powers and iran robert. deadline approaching on tuesday. how is that going to impact the energy market and are traders bearish traders on oil right to think that that could lead if there is a deal to more oil flood this market from iran? >> well i think if they think that iran is going to disrupt the current basic supply and demand dynamics i think they're wrong. first of all even if there is an agreement next week that will be the first stage of an agreement. you will not see an immediate

lifting of sanctions. that would be a phased in process. saudi arabia remains the only country with real leverage enough leverage over the market to drive prices, and the saudis seem committed to this strategy. a strategy of maintaining a low price in order to dampen long-term investment, particularly in the wraits, but elsewhere as well and alternative sources of oil, shale, tar sands, deep exploration. >> thanks very much for the valuable insight on the energy market. a lot of moving pardons. >> to the latest on the germanwings plane crash. we're now learning that the co-pilot who deliberately brought down the jet may have been hiding an illness. nbc's claudia is near the crash site location from the alps. what is the latest? sfroo well swrerman

investigators this morning told us that they found in an apartment in germany a sick note certificate issued by a doctor who said that he was unfit to work and shouldn't have turned up for a number of days including that fatal tuesday during which he boarded that flight as a co-pilot and flew it into the french alps. we don't know yet what this mysterious illness was, but, of course, investigators believe that that has something to do with the decision by lubitz to kill himself and bring 149 innocent lives with him. now, we do know that six years ago he suffered a six-month period of burndown syndrome some sort of depression. we don't know if that's some kind of similar condition. what we do know is that he did not tell lufthansa, the company, or his work colleagues about this illness or this certificate to the point that he tore it apart in his home. this also -- this answers some questions, but it raises many more questions than it answers,

i'm afraid. >> huh so much for the update. still plenty of mystery surrounding this crash. brian. >> all right sarah. meantime on your menu, america, for the rest of this very fine hour sodas, burgers, and all you can eat buffets. a big analyst call on one hamburger stock that is not mcdonald's. why america's love affair with diet soda may be fizzling out, and an exclusive in the sea of carnival cruise lines. there's your buffet reference, folks. it is all when power lunch returns. stick around. ♪ help brazil reduce its overall reliance on foreign imports with the launch of the country's largest petrochemical operations. when emerson takes up the challenge it's never been done before simply becomes consider it solved.

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>> quick check on the u.s. dollar for you. the dollar yesterday, had its biggest jump in a week. looks like we're backing off a bit against the youro against the swrap knees yen. like stocks like bonds like commodities. currencies also have an up and down kind of wild week. big focus will be this afternoon, 3:45 p.m. janet yellin will be speaking in san francisco. many strategyist gisted say long-term the dollar trend higher is still very much in place, but a lot depends on what the fed says and what the fed does. >> you love to talk about the dollar, and you love to jab it up my nose that i don't know what i'm talking about with currencies, and you are true. i'm not a currency group, but i'm going to stump you. the dollar euro one of the best

trades. currency cross-wise. do you know what the best currency trade is so far this year? up 14.5% year-to-date sarah. >> is it norway or sweden? >> well close. similar people. switzerland. >> switzerland. oh yeah of course. >> they hold the shocker central bank move. >> up 14.5%. sfwroo should have guessed that. >> kind of like norway. pretty. late. right. i just made that up. >> time now for street talk. a look at five analyst calls. always working to find new opportunities, america. put your head up and let's go. first up is m bridge energy partners ticker eeb. you want to hit it? >> sure. started coverage with an outperform rating target. $46. that, brian, 27% up tide seen there. much higher than the consensus price target of 40 and a change from the rest of the analysts.

it may be 107 a share, but a buy-out could rise to as much as, get this 418 per share if all the drugged in the pipeline are profitable but i remind our viewers, that is a big if and a gigantic variable. >> a lot of speculation on those biotech names when it comes to buy-outs. stock number three, red robin gourmet burgers. miller payback raising its price target for the burger chain zoosh they continue to see up side this year. also see az more rapid expansion around america. target raised to $95 from $86. the stock is at $86. about $9 of up side seen. it has a buy rating. >> i have never been to one. we're going under the radar here with this name.

they have infrastructure and architecture. it ipo's back in september. an overweight. their rating is 33. represents about 20% up side. jp morgan more bullish than the $31 average price target. the analysts covering the name. the final pick is intertemperature pharmaceutical. >> another big biotech call. to 400 from 300. the stock at $289 a share. can you do the math america. a competitive position for key drug site. it is a main reason. it is a treatment for liver disease combined with fibrosis. by the way ledbush securities even more bullish on intercept. they have a $493 price target coming up another big reason that interaccept is higher today. meg terrell will join us with those details. the biotech boom and bullish calls. simply continue.

>> i think i have a feeling. i know which one it is. >> carnival cruises hitting multi-year highs. this after reporting strong earnings. carnival's excuse joining us sarah exclusively ahead. how hedge funds are target so take cue from the movie "fight club." it's called a changeover. the movie goes on and nobody in the audience has any idea.

sfwroo welcome back. before the break we told you about one pharma stock getting hit on the back of a failed test for its liver drug. meg terrell is here with us to go through the story. there's a winner and loser in this one today. >> before the break you were mentioning intercept, which was up based on its competitor's data. that competitor is genfit. it plunged 44%. near traded in paris. i just got off the phone with the ceo who told me he thinks the market is really overreacting here. he is actually calling the phase two study a success. now, what happened was it missed its top line goal and when they took out some early stage patients with this early liver

disease called nash, what they found is that in high risk patients, the drug appeared to be working, and so that's why they're calling it success, and they're going forward into a phase three trial. we also mentioned -- the drug looks very safe he said and it looks to be cardio protective, lowering the levels of bad cholesterol, raising the levels of high -- of good cholesterol in the blood. we also talked about the future of the company. he says they plan to list on nasdaq this year. they also need to raise some money in order to go into that phase three trial, which would be much bigger than the phase two. they're potentially pursuing a partnership with the big pharma company. bloomberg reported the company may be seeking a sale of itself. we talked about that and he obviously wouldn't comment whether they're going to sell themselves. he says all options are on the table, including a sale or potential partnership. genfit satisfying this is a success, an overreaction. >> wall street doesn't think so. it was down 44% last time i looked. we showed the plus sign and

talked about that with brian. is this an opportunity for them? >> that's what folks are saying. they're saying because genfit's drug didn't look to work quite as well intercept's drug emerges as the leader in the class. they're both going to go into phase three studies this year so genfit's argument is still in the race. what is the best research piece you have read on the sector? has the run-up ended? >> credit suisse has a great note out today actually looking at valuations in biotech saying that they do make sense for some of the bigger companies who have really great pipelines. >> depends what you want to pay for growth stocks. meg terrell visiting us at the nasdaq. over to you, brian. >> thank you very much. in fact let's talk about cruise lines because sarah has a big interview with the ceo of carnival coming up. carnival is the second best performing stock in the s&p 500 right now. you know what the best performing stock right now is? rcl, royal caribbean. strong outlook from carnival. boosting the whole segment there. also top chef and bravo teaming

up with a partnership for top chef at sea. not sure that's what's moving the name. either way the outlook probably more important, but rcl, certainly has been hot. is america's love affair with soda dying out? we are keeping an eye on oil. the final trades of the week. swraky deangeles ramping up the drama the last ten minutes. what's going on? >> absolutely, brian. as always we're seeing more selling pressure at the close. i'm going to tell you why. of course, we were watching that key level to see if oil was going to move higher this week than it has in four wreerz. doesn't look like we're going to make it but we'll break it down, explain what's happening with this trade and what you need to be thinking about for next week. stay with "power lunch."

this is my body of proof. proof of less joint pain. and clearer skin. this is my body of proof that i can fight psoriatic arthritis from the inside out... with humira. humira works by targeting and helping to block a specific source of inflammation that contributes to both joint and skin symptoms. it's proven to help relieve pain, stop further joint damage and clear skin in many adults. doctors have been prescribing humira for nearly 10 years. >>humira can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. serious, sometimes fatal infections and cancers including lymphoma have happened, as have blood, liver and nervous system problems, serious allergic reactions and new or worsening heart failure. before treatment, get tested for tb. tell your doctor if you've been to areas where certain fungal infections are common, and if you've had tb, hepatitis b, are prone to infections, or have flu-like symptoms or sores. don't start humira if you have an infection. >>visit humira.com and talk to your rheumatologist. humira. this is a body of proof!

now with the xfinity tv go app, you can watch live tv anytime. it's never been easier with so many networks all in one place. get live tv whenever you want. the xfinity tv go app. now with live tv on the go. enjoy over wifi or on verizon wireless 4g lte. plus enjoy special savings when you purchase any new verizon wireless smartphone or tablet from comcast. visit comcast.com/wireless to learn more. i'm sue herrera, and here's your krst nbc news update this hour. international negotiations aimed at reaching a nuclear agreement with iran could be extended past the tuesday deadline according to the u.k. foreign secretary. phillip hammond saying the talks could be extepided by as much as two weeks. negotiators wanted to hammer out ideally a frame work agreement

by march 31st. firefighters continue to work hot spots on what remains of three buildings that collapsed yesterday in new york city. construction workers inside a sushi restaurant accidentally hit a gas line causing the explosion that injured 25 people and left two people unaccounted for. a single engine plane landed safely on a south carolina highway last night. the plane carrying five people was forced to land after engine trouble. it was supposed to perform in a sky diving act on saturday. tv's mad men may be entering its final season but its advertising image will live on at the smithsonian. jon hamm who plays john draper in the amc drama, joined cast members at the museum to donate costumes props, sketches and a script. curators were interested in the show's 1960s period relics. that's your news update at this hour. back to you, brian. >> all right, sue. thank you very much. if we close at $49. 0 per barrel or above it would make it the biggest weekly gain for oil in more than four years. jackie deangeles, it does not

look like this will happen. >> hi there, brian. it doesn't look like we're going to reach that mark but it does look like we're going to close just over $49 here on wti. selling pressure coming in intense here at the close. we've seen this typically, this pattern of trading happened especially on a friday heading into the weekend. a couple of other things to think about here. the bearishness today coming from a note out of goldman sachs saying that the yemen impact really isn't going to be such a big deal for supply because the situation seems to be under control at this point. also, an iran nuclear deal that could bring more oil on to the market. that's bearish as well. goldman also saying that it expects to see inventories continue to build in the second quarter, so that is not good news. you broke the news about babyinger hughes and rig counts. rig counts are declining, but less quickly that be they were before. this could be supportive for prices because it may mean the producers are starting to see the trimmings here or the makings for production to start

to slow a little bit. >> you have all kinds of stuff going on. we talked about saudi arabia iran, wremen. you fwot the dollar and all these things going on. what was interesting about the drilling rig count thaw reference odd baker hoousz was that we fell 12 rigs. fewer than the week before. guess what it was i think 81 two weeks ago and 56 down last week. now down 12. the rate of decline is slowing -- it was the slowest rate since december. you wonder, and i'm not going to put ow the spot here jackie because you can't speak for all the traders themselves, but you wonder if there's a thinking that maybe the rate of production or new drilling well slowdown is going to slow down itself. >> absolutely. brian, they've been talking about that for quite some time. again, this is sort of a lagging indicator, though. i was just at the wheel conference in new orleans. a lot of the producers were

saying that they're going to continue at the current rates. they are taking some rigs off line, but remember, these may not be some of the rigs that are the best producers. one person put it really well when he said to me, they're taking the buicks off line and keeping the mercedes on. we'll have to see what happens. >> why you got to take a cheap shot at buick like that? the enclave is a nice car. we showed you charts at 21 rigs down. that is 21 with oil and gas. we've been more focused on oil just oil rigs down 12. speaking of oil, guess who knows something about it? that guy. big oil interview coming up on "closing bell." chevron ceo john watson doesn't do a lot of tv. he is going to join our own kelly evans for an exclusive interview in the 3:00 eastern time hour. i have a feeling, a suspicion, they will talk about oil. it's just a guess. other than that i have no clue. let's move on. your other big news. fed chair janet yellen giving a speech at the federal reserve chair in san frufk. what might that mean for stocks? well i have no idea but our

date wra partner might and he says that on janet yellin speech days the dow goes up. s&p trade higher about three-fourth of the time and gain an average of .3%. the ten-year bond trades positive just 43% of the time meaning bond prices fall about six out of ten times, and the dollar index, flip a coin. split about 50-50. let's bring in senior economist at wells fargo securities and our own steve liesman, our senior economics reporter. janet seems to move stocks a little more than bonds. any other color you can add to it? janet yellen talks what walks? >> i actually went banning. turns out the market was up any given day in that period of time. 54% of the time. there's clearly some positivity or positiveness that the market takes from it. i think it's curious that the bond market goes the opposite way because you would think that the stocks would be having a certain dovishness that would be

coming from janet yellin. you could think that perhaps the bond market figures out what janet is going to say before the stock market does. >> what do you make of this data and what steve says? the janet yellen effect? what is it? >> well it clearly seems to be some affect, and, in fact if you look at the last statement and more particularly look at -- listen to the press conference janet yellin is referencing some components of gtp, and we've got the gdp report in today. it came in at a much lower pace and we saw that exports had a big drag on the headline number and, in fact when you consider how janet yellin and the rest of the fed continues to look at overall gdp and the momentum of the economy, the strong dollar is going to play a big role. >> all right. steve, i have a question. i would have put that a little bit differently and said that it indicates the janet yellen is usually dovish because when

she's dovish stocks rise. they like easy monetary policy. interestingly, what we've heard from other fed presidents this week and really over the last i guess, since her main press conference is that they're itching to raise interest rates. how does she pair her dovishness that stocks like with what over fed presidents are saying this afternoon at 3:45? >> i think janet yellen is going to have very much the same message as these other fed presidents. by the way sarah, i am sure you caught dennis lockhart's comments to me yesterday in detroit. he thinks the dollar is a bigger factor, and that picks up what was being said that he first thought when he started to consider the decline -- or the appreciation of the dollar. that's significant. i just don't really quite get how the bond market wouldn't go -- wouldn't pick up on that dovishness. maybe it's because it's already down. there's a transition going on and i think the encouragement the market heard last week was

this notion that there was -- they were going to raise rates, but not in any hurry to do so very quickly or to do so very steeply. i'm guessing that's the encouragement the market has been getting fro janet yellen. >> i'm going to throw this final question out to aneeka. i hope you have a positive answer. it's friday. it's raining. it's technically spring. i hope you have good news. i have no idea what your answer to this question will be. should we believe that in six months time we will be able to get affirmative read that the u.s. economy is stronger then than it is today or will it be flat to weaker? >> great question. i'm not going to rain on your parade. >> thank you. sfroo. >> if we look at june of course, the recent economic data have been disappointing. a lot of it is due to transitory and one-off factors. be it weather, be it the stronger dollar.

we will probably get an even weaker number in the third quarter, but the good news about transitory and one-offs is that you tend to get a rebound. a lot of this is weather, and we'll likely see the underlying trend in real gdp headline improve in the second quarter. >> we like the good news. thank you very much. steve liesman as well. have a great weekend too. >> thanks. >> don't miss on the closing bell janet yellen speaking in san francisco. the title is the new normal for monetary policy. nothing, brian, like a friday afternoon speech from the fed chairman to get market -- to keep markets on their toes and traders at their desk.

>> for six years every day -- >> we're so bullish on stocks and when we look at the price action we've been seeing in the market as of late, it looks like just short-term profit taking as we're coming into quarter end here. when we look at the long-term chart on the s&p 500, let's make a couple of observations on this chart. at we've seen say retest of this rising 40-week moving average which comes in to play at around 2016 and then also there's a longer term uptrend support line that comes into play at about 1975. from our perspective, the primary trend of this market is still up. it has not changed. it will not until we ultimately reverse that trend. now, go to the one-year chart, if you would, and let's take a

look at what we've been seeing happening over the last month or so, and really we've been stuck in the trading range of 2,120 at the upper end and about 2040 on the lower end. again, that's another wrar of support. there's a lot of support underneath this market and there is no trend change happening, and this is short-term profit taking and we're still bullish on this market. we're looking for 2 3shgs 50 at year end. >> wow. i think -- yeah steve -- one of the other big firms has a similar high number. 2,350. i can't remember the exact firm but most out there are still bullish. craig johnson, you are definitely dave seaburg, cowan and company, are you guys as bullish or bearish? >> listen music to my ears. i'm with you. i'm bullish, and i have been bullish for a long time. i think yesterday, or this past week's action is nothing. nothing more than end of quarter, a little profit taking around the edges. we didn't see any real forced selling at all, no panic. no. i think the market is going to continue to ride higher.

you know look, earnings are projected to be flat to down. i mean, for the market to go higher what does that mean? it means investors are going to have to pay a hire multiple, and i could tell you a federal reserve and every central bank is forcing the hand of investors, forcing to play a higher multiple. i will say i think the market will continue to grind hire. i don't think we're up bloated evil wragss. i don't think the poi tech tape is in a bubble at all. i expect -- i think stocks are going to continue to go to higher levels. i don't read into this little pullback at all has anything more than a little bit of profit taking scenario and buyers sort of walking away for a period. >> a little move down is not a bad thing. a big move down is not aed about thing. aren't we supposed to buy low, or lower? >> that's right. that's right. >> we're on the same page. no, i agree. s i think there's confidence thinned move to bind higher and i think that you're going to

continue to see money growth. >> david and craig are going to leave it there, but we had bill miller on fast money halftime report about 90 minutes ago. he said every time this market starts to roll over my clients start calling in redemptions. he is, like i want to stee stocks fall because that's what you're supposed to do. you're supposed to buy when prices are lower. "mad money". anyway, there you go. a little thought -- a little wisdom from miller for the weekend. have a great weekend yourself. thank you. >> well, if you like what you see here on trading nation and you crave a little bit more check out our website, trading nation.cnbc.com. all right. the show is winding down but it's not dead yet. on deck each of our stocks of the week but, first, is diet soda dying. diet soda the second most popular soft drink. we'll tell you what it is and why consumers aren't so sweet on diet soda anymore. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 [ male announcer ] your love for trading never stops tdd# 1-800-345-2550 even on the go. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 open a

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to the past six months pepsi stock up 3% while coke is down more than 4%. let's bring in john foshay howard, beverage analyst at euro monitor international. are we all drinking diet sodas in ten years from now? >> well, that's certainly -- i think reduced sugar, we see reduced sugar in general down about 6% in 2014. low calorie colas in particular down about 8%, and that's in comparison to a 3% contraction in carbonates overall. there's a shift away from the diet segment. just to bottom line this whole thing, americans -- this data we looked at specifically was the u.s. americans are drinking less soda overall, but they're drinking diet soda even more less soda overall. is that what's happening? is this a dying category? that's what i'm really getting at it. >> well yeah. i think there's certainly a migration from consumers that are interested in healthy

wellness products. it may be the case of their exiting that diet soda category and moving to other categories that are perceived as well. we think bottled sparkling water, for example, was up 11% in 2014. rtd, ice teas were up as well. i think there are a lot of other options, natural options and functional beverages that the consumers may be interested in. >> john i want to ask you because you cover these companies. you rate it as an analyst. you rate the stocks. how dire do you perceive this data to be when it comes to the trends and americans drinking soft drinks? carbonated soft drinks and diet soft drinks? >> dire i think is a little bit strong. what was interesting this year is that full calorie cfd's did a little bit better than what we would have anticipated. red can coke brand coke was actually up. >> right. >> brands with real suge arks like pepsi with real suge ash, that was up probably by more than 50%. we're seeing a little bit of an offset. howard is right, though. what's happening here is

consumers are moving from categories that were purr cede as better for you to stuff that's actually good for you. they're noting that distinction in sparkling water that fits in there. you know as long as these companies also participate in those categories diets are going to continue to decline, but they should be able to offset most of that decline as long as they have truly healthy beverages. that's what these consumers want. >> we should note that we reached out to coca-cola, and they pointed out that three out of the four sparkling brands that grew last year were coke products. coke, sprite and fanta. diet coke performance is improving slightly, but we have work to do. we xhooi committed to doing it and committed to getting the brand back on the road to sales growth. do you see enough effort on that front, john and enough effort in general to diversify away from the carbonated soft drinks slowing category sf. >> i think pepsi has done a better job of diversifying than coke has. coke needs to get more aimpressive through m&a. i'm not sure there's a whole lot to do here. consumers are leaving because

there's really no sort of positive reason to stick with diet coke. you know maybe the taste. maybe caffeine. if you have the choice between seltzer and diet soda and you think that aspartame is bad for you, you need a more affirmative reason. the second reason is they have to come up with a natural sweetener. i think if they do that in both coke and pepsi as well as dr. pepper, they're working on that but -- >> they're trying. >> trying to find something natural that tastes good that's been the real problem. >> john, one quick for me. i'm glad you referenced dr. pepper. we've talked about coke and pepsi because they're huge, but dr. pepper, snapple ps is outperforming stocks over a wide margin over the last year. where has dps done so well? it's not like sun drop is tearing up sales hearts? >> it's not about sun drop. the primary issue is currency. dps is predominantly a u.s. company so they have less fx impact, but they've deny a great job cutting costs and so while top line hasn't been great,

margins have moved up a ton. we've seen a lot of the raw materials, whether it's corn aluminum, or p.e.t. move down. when you are a phobinged u.s. beverage company and you don't have the f.x. and you get the raw material favorability, that's good for margins, and that's why they've been outperforming. >> whatever happened to mr. pibb? anybody ever drink that? mr. pib, what happened? >> the other big winner is monster. energy drinks are a high growth category. >> and, by the way sarah, did you pay john to say foreign exchange? >> i did not. it just so happens that the biggest issue for consumer companies right now happens to be currencies. >> john howard thank you both very much. appreciate it. >> have a good day. >> thanks very much. in the meantime shares of carnival cruise lines higher. the second best performer in the s&p 500 right now after they reported better than expected earnings. an exclusive interview with the ceo of ccl after that.

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now with live tv on the go. enjoy over wifi or on verizon wireless 4g lte. plus enjoy special savings when you purchase any new verizon wireless smartphone or tablet from comcast. visit comcast.com/wireless to learn more. carnival corporation reporting earnings that beat expectations big time. the stock soaring on the news reaching new multiyear highs dating back to january 2011. it is one of the best performers in the s&p 500 and lifting the entire industry. let's get to our exclusive interview with car nal ceo arnold donald. good to see you again.

>> hi sara. >> give us a little color around the quarter. obviously wall street loved the numbers. was it stronger demand and how much of it was helped from lower fuel costs? >> well the reality is very little was helped from lower fuel costs. we beat guidance by quite a bit, by 11 cents. 6 cents of it was definitely higher operating performance. driven by yields and demand in both europe and north america. a lot of on board revenue increases on the ships as well as some ticket yield improvement. >> and arnold i know my colleague simon hobbs, our travel and leisure guru, would kill me if i didn't ask you about revenue yields. it looks like when it comes to the outlook and guidance that yield number was higher than analysts were looking for. can you explain what's driving that? >> yeah. we'll have yield increases and current currency of 3% to 4% for

the year. that's a full point higher than what we had given in the december guidance. it's being driven by demand creation great on board experiences, and just outstanding effort on the part of our 120,000 dedicated employees all who are geared around exceeding guests' expectations. we're very excited to be offsetting a huge negative drag in currency. we're off 26 cents for the year between currency and fuel combined. so it's down 26 cents off our guidance. we're able to make most of that up with improved performance. >> it's been a tough few years with the 2012 "costa concordia" accident the triumph fire a little later. what do you tell your investors or even some of your customers that are still wary of this industry? clearly you have shown with the numbers that the demand is back but how do you convince those that might still be afraid? >> you know the demand never went anywhere. the ships always sailed full. the issue, of course is

pricing. and by having excess demand we're able to get higher yields and that's certainly the case. the caribbean for the third quarter and beyond is looking much stronger. the rest of the world is also up. but a lot of it is innovations within our company. a lot of hard work by our people. better revenue management. giving the guests more of what they want. it's an exciting time for us but we have to stay the course. we're on a path of double digit return investor capital. that's our goal. that's what we will deliver in three to four years. >> i saw you were also ordering nine more ships. thanks for joining us exclusive interview on those results and congratulations. big day for you over at carnival. that's the ceo. >> thank you sara. >> arnold duck canncan. coming up, hedge funds, wanting a name change. and i will make fun of brian about being so wrong about something he said on yesterday's show. yes, brian was wrong. we'll be right back.

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explosion, caused that catastrophic building collapse. new video coming in to cnbc showing for the first time that blast. all right. in the movie "fight club" there was a famous line. the first rule of fight club is you do not talk about fight club. apparently hedge funds are taking it to heart. kate kelly is here to explain. >> "the wall street journal" reporting there are hedge funds trying to ditch the name hedge fund. it includes one of the most revered money managers working today. they're trying to ditch their name altogether. aqr capital, pershing square they have either buried the term hedge fund or eliminated it altogether. a little bit of insight, it's written in a recent letter we actually don't see ourselves as

a hedge fund. they manage roughly 30 billion. that's about six months old. he also wret a book called "the margin of safety." it's a book that's out of precipitation but a bible among investors. he says we have a broad mandate to own what is compelling at a given time. in any case even an outperformer like pershing square is grappling with a crumby time in the industry generally. the average hedge fund has underperformed the market by a lot. during last year they rose just a measly 3% versus an s&p 11%. you can see why the terp private partnership might be more appealing. >> and a little more pc these days. >> maybe. >> kate thank you very much. sara? >> it is now time for stocks of the week.

stocks that we felt stood out over the past week and, brian, mine has got to be kraft foods group. obviously the biggest delph 2015 happening this week with kraft merging with heinz thanks to 3g and mr. warren buffett who had taken heinz private a few years ago. not only did investors love this deal on the day of the deal but worth noting that the stock has continued to go higher and analysts' notes are coming out with a new rating $80 to $90 per share. that's sort of where it is right now. >> my pick is the one i meked mentioned earlier, dr. pepper snapple. sun drop apparently rocking it. dps. >> it's actually the domestic play with the currencies but thank you. >> sun drop rocking it. sun drop. >> before we get -- >> brian hunter-reay, indy car. >> a blast from the past brian sullivan. let's talk about other march madness because we've got to

get -- >> i think we've run out of time. >> i'll do it on "fast money." >> no then i can't defend myself. i said west virginia would win. i was horrifically spectacularly incorrect. >> wrong. >> but on "fast money" we'll do it with stocks and match up nvidia and intel. >> thanks for watching, everybody. have a great weekend. yes, hi and welcome to "the closing bell," everybody, on this friday. i'm kel i evans. >> and i'm bill griffeth. by any stretch of the imagination this has not been a great week for stock market bulls. if it doesn't finish in the green, it will have lost ground each day this week something that hasn't happened since march of last year. also we have two more trading days, of course, in the first quarter of this year monday and right now the s&p