good morning. work would for a living. even on good friday. the march employment report is today's top story. if predictions come true this would be the 13th straight month of gains of 200,000 jobs or more. and the fed will be in play because today's economic number could be a big factor in the central bank's decision on when to start raising rates. our special guest today, goldman sachs chief economist jan hatzas. and from mad men to the walking dead. what would man men do in a zombie world? hollywood on our set this morning as the ceo of amc networks will be here. it's friday april 3rd, 2015. "squawk box" begins right now.

♪ live from new york where business never sleeps, this is quarterback. -- "squawk box." >> if you can get mork and mindy from happy days, there's something to be done there for sure. good morning. welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm michelle caruso-cabrera along with joe kernen and steve leisman. stock market is closed today for good friday but there will be some trading. equity futures will be open until 9:15 a.m. eastern time and you can change on globe x until 11:15 a.m. brent crude is trading. as for the jobs report forecasters say the economy likely added 248,000 jobs last month. the unemployment rate is seen as holding steady at 5.5% and hourly average earnings expected

to rise .2%. so the labor department works on good friday. >> i think a portion does. here are the other stories we're watching at this hour. iran, the u.s. and other world powers reaching a deal on a framework to curb tehran's nuclear program. this comes after eight days of marathon talks in switzerland. details to be worked out and sanctions remain in place until a final deal is reached. more from john harwood in just a minute. in corporate news ibm reportedly hiring investors to deal with restless investor in an attack by funds. looking for help from activists to shake up the tech giant. but are said to have turned them down. and toyota is ending its expansion freeze. reportedly planning to make $1.3 billion to build new plants in mexico and china. announcement could come this month. we're less than 90 minutes away now from the jobs report.

i'm not sure what time it is here. it's weird starting at 7:00 but it's good. our guest host this hour allison deans and a cnbc contributor. before we get to you, i want to ask leisman. wasn't it 284 before gdp? >> nobody changed. >> why do you think that is? >> lazy? >> adp has been a little bit below. >> explain what happened. adp is pretty good. and they missed. they were well below -- >> it's been running within about 45,000 or so. >> and how short was it? >> it was 189. >> 40 or 50 short. and they didn't touch the 240. >> so i didn't see very many. maybe one or two guys said there's downside risk. >> i remembered it was 248

before and you said 248 today. >> i know. >> okay. so, hi. thanks for coming in. we're only here for two hours, you guys. we told you that right? so we've really got to get three hours worth of information into two hours somehow without the stock market trading today. >> if they talk at the same time you talk -- >> we do not do that typically. doing it right now. you didn't come down after adp? >> no. i mean three of the last four months have been terrible for adp. when you look at the last two years combined the average is close enough to 30,000 on a median basis. december was almost perfect. november missed by over 100,000. it's been on a cold streak. >> i want to ask allison first, is the fed still data dependent or are they doing it in june? i get the feeling it doesn't matter what happens from here. the number today could influence what they're going to do.

they need to do it. a quarter point is not going to hurt us. >> i think they're still data dependent. >> really? >> i think it might include stock market data. even if some of the trends look favorable, corporate profits are under pressure right now. >> that's not their mandate. why would they do that? >> well their mandate's questionable. >> fingers and toes. >> they were supposed to protect the soundness of the financial system. if they're worried the stock market might make people nervous, it might be rationalism for them to hold off until later in the year. >> then we're in that cycle, right? if the market scares them they don't. >> there's no difference between zero and a quarter. they need to get it started, steve. >> i think that's probably right that given the state of the economy that zero interest rates are wrong. but i think what they want to see is when they're data dependent, i think there's a

difference between maybe the market's conception of data and their conception. they're look at is the medium term forecast and how a single data point influences more of the long run. >> you know what? i've seen people say it's off to the races after the claims number that we've suddenly got past stall speed and things are cranking. there shouldn't be a reason for them not to do it in june. the numbers are going to start getting better. >> they have been better already arguably. in the last 12 months payrolls have averaged 2.4%. the arithmetic is so overwhelming that unemployment is going to keep on coming down unless employment growth slows dramatically. at the end of the day it's the employment rate that's first on the list for the fed. if it keeps falling, they will be tightening. do they hold off until september? >> tell me if i'm wrong, but i think people missed a little thing in a recent speech that yellen gave where she said we're effectively prepared to hike if the core rate remains the same. everybody said that that was a

hugely dovish speech. >> you're talking about inflation. >> and i think that's a little bit of a game changer. >> i think she has said that before. she also said she'd be quite worried if it slowed any further. now, since then actually the core pc did tick up from 1.3 to 1.4. i think number one on her list is the employment rate. the way the fed views the world, it's a key leading indicator of inflation pressure. >> has the move in inflation been enough for the critics out there who say if the mandate is both employment and inflation that inflation is at risk of falling and it's not moving up fast enough. and that's why you wouldn't raise interest rates. >> i think if it looks fairly stable but if unemployment is clearly trending down then the fed will look ahead and say the downturn will push inflation up. that's the structure they're working with right now. i think if unemployment is on a

down trajectory they stay on for tightening. >> wouldn't you think a reasonable and competent fed chairman would probably emphasize unemployment more than inflation? i mean it's not going to go lower. europe's going to recover. we're not in danger of deflation. you don't need to get to 2%. that's a great thing to have 2% inflation, but i don't think it's that profound to say i'm going to de-emphasize inflation. >> but i also think they're going to look at wage growth. we've had this great trend in unemployment. but we haven't seen much in the way of wage growth. it's going the drive potential inflationary trends. while people having going back to work, they're going to lower pay than they had before the crisis. seeing that change in attitude and the change in direction of pay is something i think will make it -- >> but it has started. >> announcement by mcdonald's and walmart. is that real because they can't attract workers?

>> my sense is political. i think it's the protesting around minimum wage. >> probably both. >> you get tj maxx and walmart and all these guys. there's so far to go. i pushed back on jim and said the unemployment rate will come down but the amount of slack in the labor market we don't know what the right participation rate is. to stabilize the participation rate. okay? so we have not yet attracted people back into the workforce. i could see a scenario where wage go up at a rate. i'm better off not working. maybe i'm better off not working which creates this slack. i don't know that krueger is right here. that the people that left ain't coming back. i think possibly they come back. >> done about three points since it began. saying they're not looking for a job. therefore not in the workforce but they want a job is about

half a percentage point of that difference. i'm not saying the whole three points or so drop is secular, but the bulk of it is. >> people retire and -- >> you look at other numbers saying that jobs are -- they have trouble finding workers or people saying jobs are plentiful, those numbers are all fairly consistent with the down trend in the unemployment rate. >> one thing we didn't say is i think it's a possible because all the other data is weak that the jobs number could be weak as well. there's been a bunch of stuff out there that's disappointed from retail sales to spending. looks like we had softness in the first quarter. i would not be surprised if that number was -- >> that portends a really strong number. anyway thank you. your work -- i don't -- i use you counterintuitively now. >> my work has been great until the last four months. then it was -- >> i'm betting on a strong number. >> much like adp and the other

economists. >> i won't do my own estimate because nobody cares what my estimate is. i did john 3:16. >> you did scripture. >> i did pi and i got it right when i did pi. >> to a point. >> it was 314,000. what else have i done? a smiley face. i don't know what to do today. >> people could write in and give you a suggestion. >> i'm not sure what to do. anyway, thank you. we've got to go on to this other -- you're going to be here. >> alison is staying for the hour. >> you've got to leave jim. we liked her better. >> see you later, thanks. the global story, the iran deal after marathon talks in switzerland. supporters of the iranian foreign minister giving him a hero's welcome today upon his arrival. but benjamin netanyahu calling

the deal an historic mistake. in washington critics are already lining up as the focus turns on convincing congress to support the deal. >> if congress kills this deal not based on expert analysis and without offering any reasonable alternative, then it's the united states that will be blamed for the failure of diplomacy. >> joining us now, john harwood. good to see you. it was suggested to reporters yesterday when it comes to lifting the sanctions, it was going to be gradual. but when you listen to the iranian version of the deal it's that the sanctions are going to be lifted all at once and nearly immediately upon verification. it seems to me already that we're starting to get into this gray area of disputes. >> well i guess it depends on when verification takes place. white house is saying that the lifting of sanctions is going to be some years off and not something that congress needs to act on any time soon. you're exactly right. the different ways this is

framed iran came out of the agreement yesterday saying we don't have to shut down anything that we're doing. the president said we're reducing their -- the active centrifuges by 2/3. the president's going to have a burden of persuasion to the congress. but i have to say in talking to some of the republican foreign policy experts including some who served in president george w. bush's administration, they were impressed by some of the elements of this deal which was more specific more substantive than some had expected. >> it's going to be the verification process, though right? i mean already people are saying all of those parameters are great and you're right, better than we expected. more specific than we expected. but historically iran cheats. and always has and they're not convinced that there's enough -- they're convinced there's still enough wiggle room in this they could start another facility. >> that's the crux of the decision facing congress.

whether or not they can be confident as president obama said yesterday, this is not based on trust. he called it the most rigorous inspection regime that has ever been imposed on in a country. now, all the details of that regime haven't been worked out yesterday. we've still got a couple of months to go until june 30th where they pledged to actually have the specifics. and that's going to tell us whether or not members of congress are going to be persuaded by that argument. >> john like so many things i read all the editorials this morning. it was weird. did you read "the washington post"? you just said how much more specific and substantive it was. in "the washington post" with the key parameters on the deal fell well short of the goals originally set by the obama administration. "the washington post" goes in to go back and look at all the president's quotes about what we would accept and what we wouldn't and none of them were

satisfied. so i got the post and i was like wow. i was really surprised they were there. >> the post has been consistently critical of the president on foreign policy. >> reading "the new york times," at this point it's kind of like the old show not necessarily the news. it's kind of a parody. i think it's -- i don't think they're really serious half the time. i think it's kind of a joke because it's so off the wall and then i try to read "the wall street journal" and get the sense. they just said what you said. that there were some things in there that were better than some of the real skeptics were anticipating. so the journal seemed what fair. i get a little uncomfortable when i see cheering throngs dancing in the streets of tehran late into the night. that just makes me think that -- i don't know. >> can i read you something from the tehran times which i think speaks to that? do we have that full screen guys? in the framework of the agreement, none of iran's

nuclear facilities as well as the previous activities will be stopped, shut down or suspended. iran's nuclear activities in all its nuclear facilities will continue. it's a paragraph from the tehran times. i said that can't be right. then i read the facts sheet. i'm like you know the way this is written it's vague enough to be accurate. they're right. i mean -- >> here's what the president's going to be counting on. he's going to be counting on his wing man david cameron as well as angela merkel in germany and the other negotiating partners of the united states to stand up and say we also think that this deal is worth doing. and so you're going to have a decision point. israel has been very critical. they said the smiles in switzerland conflict with the retched reality of this deal. we're waiting for a statement from prime minister netanyahu this morning. i got a note saying his statement has been delayed.

we'll see what he says in front of the cameras. but the president called him as well as called other leaders last night. and, you know it's a pretty historic turning point, i think. and for the president, he's got a lot at stake. he's put a lot of chips on the table for this agreement. and when he does that and when he makes public arguments, how is the american public which is inclined to want to deal and how's the congress going to react when they look at these balance of forces. israel on one side allies on the other. >> hopefully it will be vetted. instead of just saying wow i hope they don't just criticize this and, you know it'll be us that gets blamed if we don't do it and the only alternative is war, hopefully it can be vetted. we won't know for years what to think of this john. and how this finally turns out. >> you're right. >> and, you know you'd be open to it but like we say, don't just take their word for it. you've got to verify vet it

make sure it's the best you can get. >> absolutely right. >> okay good. did we just agree, harwood? >> we did. >> that's historic too. >> that's good friday. >> you know what? we're going to see cats and dogs hanging out now. iran and me and you and us. all right. see ya. >> thanks john. coming up kentucky goes high-tech. president obama visiting louisville last night to recognize the city's effort to talk about the high-tech skills gap. the louisville mayor joins us next. and then goldman sachs chief economist joins us. then the president of amc here to talk about the season finale of "the walking dead" and "mad men." stick around.

♪ i'm sure she's showing off some bourbon there. louisville, kentucky becoming known for more than baseball bats and bourbon. president obama making an appearance in derby city last night recognizing the city for addressing the high-tech skills gap with its program code louisville. this program has been used by the obama administration to develop the tech hire initiative. joining us now to talk about the technology skills gap and more is louisville mayor greg fisher.

good to have you here. >> good morning. >> you started this program before it started out of the federal government, right? tell us what is code louisville? >> we recognized a shortage in the community nor technologists like there is all over the country. we wanted the community to qualify and of course businesses are saying we need more not just here but all over the country. we developed a program here locally and began scaling it up with louisville free public system. anybody with a library card could have access to the tree house coding class. and we have some community mentors. we've scaled it up since then with the help of the department of labor. >> and what was the involvement from the business community. >> say that again? >> what was the involvement from the business community? >> they're saying we need more technologists. used to just have technology companies 10 to 20 years ago. now everybody's a technology company. they said we need more folks for these jobs. we convened the parties and came

up with a solution. >> did they provide any support in terms of either financing or for spaces for the classes, et cetera? >> no. what they did, you know we're always talking to the business community. i'm a business guy. this was an obvious need. they were trying to fill it themselves so we wanted to come up with a community solution as well. that's why we focused on the library. anybody with a library card can access this service and it comes with mentors to help people get unstuck as they learn how to code. >> how long did the classes take? i mean you just go take a coding class at a library? it sounds so complicated to me yet we hear about all these kids learning to code and as a result being able to get better jobs. >> these are 12 and 15-week courses depending what you take. you learn at your own pace. then you're a cohort group where you meet with a mentor group. these are entry level jobs. $40,000 to $70,000 jobs. then we have a more concentrated version as well that's an

intense 12 15-week full-time course, a developers boot camp as well that's a lot more specialized. think about community training and community education. our junior and technical college systems. community technical college is going to be offering credits for your portfolio work as well. so that's a big step for us. >> does that mean you're more technologically advanced than cincinnati? are you significantly more advanced than cincinnati. >> oh please. >> a lot of people feel louisville is the center of the universe. >> right. better than cincinnati, correct? joe, did you want to pick up on that? >> who do you like this weekend, mr. mayor? that's a little bit of a sore spot, i guess, too. i'm not even going to bring that up. >> i'm the mayor of louisville but when they're not playing, i'm for the university of kentucky. >> really? wow. that's a pretty good rivalry there. louisville is great. we're like almost sister cities

in cincinnati. you have a good jesuit you have a st. xavier or is that in lexington? >> trinity high school, two big high schools here as well. >> are you loving louisville? >> i love louisville. >> isn't that like hatfield and mccoy thing there? >> no, no, no. we stick together. cincinnati airport is in kentucky. did you know that? >> i knew that. i with ent there. >> can you come back and talk about bourbon some time? >> bourbon is hot. we call it bourbonism. come check it out. >> all right. >> president obama we gave him a treasure chest full of bourbon. >> i'd take that. >> we have chili. chili and bourbon is good. >> they're the napa of bourbon, louisville. >> that's right. >> bourbon is -- we now have a 365-day a year tourism people are coming to enjoy bourbon. it is really hot.

it's worth its own story. >> and baseball bats. >> my kids use them. >> louisville sluggers. >> gave one to the president yesterday. >> did you really give one? i've taken a tour of that -- used to go to a golf tournament down there. the ned beatty tournament. >> not the same thing. >> you cannot bring up deliverance in front of ned beatty. >> we've got to go. >> no. >> it's the dating game. >> no it's not the dating game. >> oh, price is right. not donl i date myself but i had it wrong in the process. >> bob barker made a weird april fools' prank. >> now we know the music. thanks, mr. mayor. >> coming up one of the models on the price is right makes a $22,000 mistake. we'll show you next. and then later, the mad man behind amc's success, ceo and president josh sapan joins us to

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welcome back to a special jobs friday edition of "squawk box." among the stories we're watching this morning, the ftc is reportedly considering settlement returns for the reynolds american to proceed. there had been a consensus the tieup could be blocked. a boeing official and six others pleading guilty in a kickback scheme. it involved giving bidding information to suppliers to the company's satellite division. and severe weather in parts of the midwest. a tornado last night near the kansas/oklahoma border strong storms also dropped pea sized hail in the area. strong winds -- look at that -- strong winds with gusts up to 30 miles an hour forecast for today. and check out this. it takes big skill to win on "the price is right" unless someone screws up that works on the show. one of the show's models made a

$22,000 mistake. >> $19,211,000. which one is it? >> $19,849. go ahead. no. oh! >> i won it! congratulations, we just gave you a car. >> that's cute. you know i've never seen vanna mess things up like that. >> ever. >> she was perfect over all those years. >> she was. and never wore the same outfit twice. i'm embarrassed to say i had a later wakeup call this morning and i was able to catch a little wheel last night. i did catch a little. the kids like to watch. the woman had the million dollars and when they do the thing where she's got to then out of -- there's about 30 of them you could get.

you've got to get it there too and then solve the final thing. she did it. she couldn't solve the -- >> one of my greatest achievements. shooting a behind the series on wheel of fortune. i got to interview them. very nice. there's a woman called the finger lady there. you know, pat knows how many numbers. because she sits there -- she's the finger lady. >> we could use more staff here. >> tell you the numbers. >> do that for the jobs report right? >> we don't go over. you're not allowed to go over. >> referee: we of course were watching the -- you know on nbc property last night. "shark tank." >> i watch lester and then dateline with lester. that was a good one last night. but it was the husband. it's always the husband. this time though cyanide.

that's not a good way. >> you really had a great time last night didn't you? >> that's the worst way. >> okay. >> because there's oxygen in your blood. >> sitting over there wondering if he wants to come on set. >> why would he wonder? because you're here. because andrew's out? coming up jan hatzius. don't move. thing more romantic than a spontaneous moment. so why pause to take a pill? and why stop what you're doing to find a bathroom? th cialis for daily use, you don't have to plan around either. it's the only daily tablet approved to treat erectile dysfunction so you can be ready anytime the moment is right. plus cialis treats the frustrating urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain

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welcome back to "squawk box." after 12 straight months of strong gains on the jobs front, some recent sluggish data suggests the economy may be a little softer. with us now on set is jan hatzius. you recently brought down your jobs forecast. >> that's right. we took it down to 220. still a good number. but, you know a little softer than where we been for sure. just seems to me that the economy isn't nearly as weak as the first quarter tracking estimates as gdp would suggest. but i don't think it's as strong as close to 300,000 jobs per

month would suggest. which is where we've been running for awhile. so we think there's going to be some convergence between the jobs numbers and the other economic indicators. >> you also brought down your first quarter tracking. you're down below 1% for the first quarter. >> we're at 1%. we lifted it after the numbers yesterday. >> what's going on out there in terms of where the weakness is from? four six, five 2.2, and now one. >> i think the gdp numbers have been too volatile. they've picked up the stronger periods and the weaker periods. but i don't think the economy was nearly as weak as minus 2.1% for the first quarter of last year would suggest. i don't think it was as strong as the 5% number for the second quarter would suggest. i think the truth is probably that we have been running at 3% maybe a little more than 3%. we've now slowed down to something many for in the 2%

area. i base that on current activity indicator which indicates a broader set to figure how the economy is going. >> but not a worrisome slowdown in your mind. >> i wouldn't say it's -- you might be a little worried. even on our current activity indicator, we're only growing in the sort of 2% range. i'd like to see that being stronger, but not nearly as worrying as the gdp numbers would say. >> since you're a -- like a savant. there's actually two words. i'm not going to use the other one. but you know so much. i'm going to run this by you. we have this discussion all the time. the reason we've had six years of 2% number one because of the financial crisis and the lack of demand and how hard it was to get out from that. or two, that some of it has to do with the fed misallocating assets. and allowing people to use the

low rates to do buybacks and mergers and not do the things that actually build an economy from the ground up. is there any truth that this weakness, this tepid recovery has been self-inflicted? >> i think the fed helps. so i'm definitely in the first camp. that's the reason for why it's been a very sluggish recovery despite generally better signs over the last couple of years. you know leaving aside the sort of short-term ups and downs. but clearly it's been a weak recovery. i think the main reason for that is not that the fed has hurt the recovery. i also don't think that it's due to very long-term factors. i don't think we're really in a secular stagnation. but i do think the aftermath of the housing and credit bubble is painful. >> you don't think there's been any misallocation of capital? you could say on balance what the fed did was good. but within there there's not

misallocation? >> there's always misallocation of capital. that's part of capitalism. >> but you think they could roll over debt so something that should have been put out of misery and that money put to work somewhere else doesn't happen because they can just roll it over and roll it over. >> the question is whether there's a good case that the fed held back economic growth by running an expansion and monetary policy. i think the answer to that was no. >> there's regulation and taxes and obamacare. a lot of things thrown in. to just be an activist government. a bigger government. a more involved government in the private sector could have held it back to some extent. >> i would argue that the lower interest rates and people -- and companies buying back stock and doing things like that was a response to the financial crisis. so blaming it on the fed when i think it's a response to we over-did it on the credit side so now we're going to ere on the side of being extremely cautious. whenever you come out of that type of bubble and the magnitude of the crisis we came through happens. i'm not sure if the fed hadn't

kept interest rates low, it would have been worse. >> it's not just here. it's been global. but -- >> that's what bernanke wrote also. >> but we're the main driver anyway. >> what happens to those company ifs they don't refinance, they go bankrupt. what happens to the interest rate in the economy? and where would the interest rate be in the economy if the fed were at 1%? we remember a time when the fed tried to push up on rates. the long end didn't respond. >> it's a question. i point to a funny line james grant wrote. in normal times when a company is failing and needs to go into liquidation liquidation, it's easy to screw it up and it happens. but you got to really put your back into it. right? so when that doesn't happen -- >> that's a good line. >> and makes a good point. radio shack should have died a long time ago. >> think about the other side of a whole bunch of companies that have survived that may not have

survived but should be there. >> but should they have is the ultimate question. we don't know the answer. >> last but not least, any comeuppance in the next five years from the incredibly easy policies we see? some people would tie 2007 and 2008 to some of the mistakes the fed made. is another something like that looming? >> i thought we would agree that the fed made mistakes mostly on the regulatory side. >> really? well, that's not what they say. >> i think on monitory policy it's more debatable. i do think that it was a relatively gradual level of rates. maybe they should have moved more quickly. but that's arguable. in the next five years, that's a

long horizon. i would not rule out recession. >> so no chickens coming home to roost. >> it's difficult after a long period of easy monetary policy. you know that you're ultimately going to have to get to a much more normal monetary environment. and that's not going to be easy. and there will be turbulence while it happens. and that's why they're spending so much time thinking about how to plan the liftoff, how to communicate the liftoff and the rest of it. >> good to see you. thanks for coming in. >> thank you. nice to be here. coming up amc building on the success of "breaking bad" and "the walking dead" launching spinoffs of both series this year. and they also prepare for the final season of "mad men." amc ceo josh sapan joins us next. i mean, come on. national gives me the control to choose any car in the aisle i want. i could choose you...

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let's say they value the agency at $65 million and they buy 51% of it that means your

share is over little over $5.5 million. 25% of that upon signing. >> oh my good ness. >> i got 10%. >> keep counting those chickens. i hope you realize this is a pathetic ploy and a delusion. >> it is until everybody votes on it. >> sorry. just heard about the partners meeting. >> perfect timing. >> he hasn't signed. he missed the vote. >> what's going on? >> none of your bees wax. >> i'll take the deal. >> good-bye, harry. >> don't worry about it. >> in the final season of amc's "mad men" kicking off this sunday night 10:00 p.m. eastern. the network stock is on a roll up over 35% over the past six months. joining us now is josh sapan. he is amc network's president and ceo. once you get lucky with maybe a "breaking bad," maybe with a "mad men," it doesn't happen like this. then a "walking dead." the people you employee that

took amc with old black and white reruns to some of the most creative stuff in content that's been on. congratulations. you know what a fan i am. but it's scary. >> thanks for saying so. nice way to wake up and hear that. >> i look forward -- i'm not a "mad men" person yet. i don't know. there's no walkers whatsoever are there? >> there are no obvious walkers. >> but we talked before you came on that maybe don draper the way he is he might survive in a post apocalyptic world. >> like cockroaches, yeah. >> so at this point, there are so many things to talk to you about. let's talk about "mad men." the detail with the appliances and the kitchen which were all exactly what i remember -- >> perfect period piece. >> -- in my 1960s kitchen. and the spoke smoking and the dresses and the parties and alcohol. that was part of the -- why people liked it so much. >> and i think the creative

team. you mentioned how it happens. i think the people that work on the show both in front and behind the camera really do it with beauty and they do it with real respect. and they do it with the highest level of craft. that really matters. >> in the old days you would run a series forever until it was -- you know, until it jumped the shark quite literally. why is there so much more discipline in the universe to say we've got six years out of this, call it a day. >> we really attempt to respect the stoirs. we try and respect the people who make and write them. and we think it is as important to put them to bed beautifully as it is to bring them in beautifully. and i think viewers ultimately recognize that and you'll be rewarded if you treat everything really kindly and well and you don't just run it off. >> i want to know the answer to joe's question in more detail. is the answer to not just

creativity but continuous creativity? what do you think you're doing differently? because everybody's tried this. and there's probability numbers about hits and they're lousy. and every organization every television, every movie company, they're lowusylousy. >> we set out ten years ago -- we did. if there's any consistency in our approach it's to do the work and craft to hopefully greatest respect of those who made it. and didn't have as much urgency as most television does in terms of achievement and accomplishments of near term results and inpatience with sort of what would be called underratings performance. if there's a difference it is that. and i think there's one other thing that's occurring. which is the system of television is changing an awful lot. people have all sorts of choices now. they can go to tablets and phones and go over the top. and you really have to be excellent to be found and

chosen. so we sort of thought that. >> i wonder. you're creative but also a great businessman too. you'd have to be. but we don't know how the future looks. i have discussions with andrew about whether it's content gets marked up or marked down. i think it always gets marked up no matter what. if it's worth watching you'll find a way to monetize it. but it's a daunting universe. do you go on with apple? does amc become part of any of these things? how are you going to make sure you get paid for what you do? >> that's a big question. i think it gets marked up too. whether it's coming in through the box, whether it's coming in from the cloud. whether it's coming in over the top. i think increasingly there's a few things you'll want and remember and find and the material that's indifferent, you'll probably pay less attention to. so i do think the marries will change. >> i looked at the apple stuff and pay 30 bucks for that.

i think i need more stuff. i have get up to 90 bucks which is what a normal cable bill -- ki get up there so quickly that maybe i do have 1500 channels and i only watch 30 of them. but it's easier to get that than to figure out everything i want and do it a la carte. >> it's funny you say that. through all these options there's also going to be newfound resilience in the big bundle which is receiving an awful lot of not so nice attention today. i think it will for the reasons you said rise up. >> is this the golden age of television. the series now are movie quality. why is that? >> 75 inch screens, high def. >> i think it absolutely is. and for all sorts of wonderful reasons. technology, options. >> i think it's because we buy our content now. when you buy your content, you get better stuff because you don't have to -- >> we got no time. we should have left more time for you. because, you know, "walking dead" started in atlanta.

everything had already happened. we need to see how this happened. >> prequel? is. >> it's not really prequel. but it's "fear the walking dead." it's going to be when it first starts happening and when the virus gets out. >> yeah. actually, it's -- >> i can't believe you doubled down on this. you're going to make so much money. anyway you're close now. we're close now. walk back over here at some point and we'll talk again. >> thanks. >> with the headline it's possible somebody in "mad men" is a zombie right? coming up predictions from alison deans. "squawk box" coming right back.

developing story out of louisville, kentucky, right now. these are live pictures coming into the newsroom. there's a four alarm fire at a building at the ge appliance park. we don't yet know details on what's made in the plant, but we will keep you updated as we learn more. we just had the mayor of louisville on half an hour ago. i wouldn't be surprised if he's headed there. look at that. holy smokes. coming up the reason we're all here today. the march jobs report is a

little more than 30 minutes away. our panel of employment experts are all on set to break down the numbers. stick around b.

good friday. jobs friday. the markets are closed for the

holiday, but we're here to give you the data and tell you what it means when trading resumes next week. our esteemed panel ready to break down the numbers. and from the state of the economy to your investments, we cover it all as this special hour of "squawk box" begins right now. live from the most powerful city in the world, new york, this is "squawk box." >> it's good music for this numbers. this is big, significant. it's weighty. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc first in business worldwide. there had to be something big to bring us in on a friday when everyone else is at home mostly, aren't they? i'm joe kernen. but it's two hours. i'm not going to wine muchhine much. i'm here with michelle caruso-cabrera and steve leisman

leisman. the jobs numbers will be released in 30 minutes. sometimes they have a weird system on the first friday of the month. >> when it's really early in the month and there was some kind of holiday or something like that. >> three weeks after something that happened in the last month. >> have you seen the formula for calculating the date of easter? complicated formula in a of man kind. it's crazy. >> it's not as difficult as calculating christmas though. i can never figure that out. >> what date is that? i'm trying to think. >> i had you going for a second. >> no no. okay. got it. >> as for the jobs report -- >> first is new year's by the way. >> right. so it's one minus six is what that is right? >> economist jokes are gut busters. >> no economist jokes. stop. >> you've got nothing else. you came in with no material today so you're relying on me. >> totally ignoring mark zandi.

>> no respect. my own tribe. you know? >> the unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 5.5%. hourly average earnings expected to rise by .2%. i was alluding the adp report which mark puts together. which was much weaker. 40,000 weaker. yet the consensus for this didn't come down. >> i think everyone went away. i just don't think they're running their mouths. >> hatzius did. he came down about 20. he came 240 to 220. >> that's goldman. >> let me introduce our other panel of jobs experts. we use that in the loosest way we can. here to preview and react. we've got andy stern here. kevin hasset. and zandi. you don't need any introduction.

>> really? >> i don't think so. you gave us the trillion dollar stimulus that didn't work. >> the zandi man. >> that's why we're creating 300 thourkss ,000 jobs a month now. >> we've got one safe bridge left. anyway thanks for the involve ready stuff. i'll tell you what was shovel ready but you needed boots too. >> he has no new material. he's using that one now. yeah. >> he did that and the zombie thing through the last half hour. >> i introduced everyone. roll it up. analytics for mark zandi. do i need to introduce you? you're like a fellow now. a distinguished fellow at columbia university.

>> your name is andy stern. >> i already said that. >> you did? >> you were over there doing all this stuff. what's your number for today, kevin? >> i like steve have a model. the model's been getting me embarrassed on the show but i'm sticking with it until you toss me in the show. but it's been right, you know often enough so i haven't ditched it. i thought you were giving me some praise for the first time ever. but 174. i think that we're in a weird spot where we're having maybe for the fifth gleeryear in a row. then we have a rest of a year that's pretty good. we just saw a quarter like that and the jobs numbers are going to disappoint. i don't think it's a negative trajectory for the year or anything. but i'm expecting a weak number. i'm about 40 below consensus right now. >> you're kind of on the record.

andy, i'm not going to put you on the spot to guess a number. i just like talking to you philosophically. is this is a way you would like things to happen in terms of wages rising? would you like the companies to act first before there was federal legislation for a minimum wage raise? >> i don't think it really matters how it rises. i think it's great that companies are doing this. i'm not sure how much of it is because of a tight labor market and how much of it is because of a brand. and then gap does it and the walmart does it and the target board of directors say how come we're not doing it and it kind of passes along. i have my own metric model. it was really cold recently so we're going to have less construction and less retail. under 200,000. >> so you did want to make -- >> we agree about everything. that's why he's coming down with me. >> you know he's -- you're away from the force now and you actually -- you're not looking

at the -- i think you would want growth in the private sector to cause a shortage of skills to have demand push wages up naturally rather than do it in some artificial way. >> totally. when the market does it it works a lot better. i think the problem now is it's create creating wage jobs, the quality of the work we have. >> you think that innovation and technology is qualitatively different than what we've seen in the past? you remember the luddites didn't want the -- what were they? the machines the weave stuff. they thought that was going to be the end of the worker. >> no. i agree with sorkin who i think you kicked off the show for me today. i think something is really different. we've seen all kinds of efficiencies. that's why after 2009 the jobs that were lost were middle class. the jobs coming back are lower

wage. because we can globalize the work. we can use contingent part-time. and at the same time you know we're hollowing out the job market. >> productivity growth has been very, very weak right? i mean less than 1%. >> i think imagining the next set of factors that are out there in the economy are a huge challenge for investors. think about the world we have right now. it's a world where corporate profits are at or near all-time highs. both the s&p absolute value and the margin. wages and salaries are at a near-1948 low. let's imagine the next economy which is hopefully the one we get to which is one where wages and salaries are higher. and it's not -- i don't think it's terrible mark or kevin, that profits or profit margins come down a little bit and you get to more balance. i don't know what the investment proposition is there, but it may be one of at least with some companies a lower multiple

because that extraction from the economy ends up -- >> it's what's going to happen. >> that's a good world to think about. so -- >> let's look at mcdonald's for example. we've been talking about it on this show for a long time about what's the natural rate of unemployment? when are wages going to start to go up? and every estimate is it's a little bit below where we are. but close. and i think that the reason why mcdonald's and walmart and all those guys are moving with wages are we're actually getting into a tight labor market and they're having turnover or problem recruiting quality workers. so they have to jack it up. >> you end up with people with more money in their pockets. do you buy target stock because they have more money to spend at target? >> it's a balance. >> it's probably a negative for their profits. because the labor share is about 70% and the profit margin is going to be pretty small for them. >> we'll get an interesting look in seattle. at $15 you're already seeing some dislocation. and i don't know what the end

result is. >> i think the hike in the minimum wage across the country was the precipitating factor for decisions by walmart, tj maxx. they would have gone anyway kevin is right. once your turnover rate starts to rise as a business person you're going to start raising wages. i think that's what's happening to these folks. but on january 1st across the country the minimum wages increased. >> i'm not sure i agree. every year wages didn't rise. i think walmart still has a huge turnover number here. >> and cost gos less because they have a higher sallarysalary. >> it's a change in the turnover rate. you're right. in the retail business you're going to have high turnover rates. >> i think it all depends on whether their workers still want jobs. if you're at 30 and then go to 35% turnover and still have a line out the door of people looking for work, i'm not sure that makes you raise wages? >> do you think there's really a line out the door? >> yeah. people can't find work.

>> but it's partisan mumbo jumbo to say that's why mcdonald's includes increased their wage. your competitors have higher costs, that's good for me. then i'm stealing the work from them because they have higher costs and eventually i have to hire more people and that drives up my costs. i don't think there's a direct link. >> you know i'm a futurist andy. sorkin worries about some jobs being displaced by robots. i'm like elon musk or bill gates. we may be like roaches to a.i. >> we'll be servants. >> they won't even need us as ser vabts. >> the factory of the future has only a man and a dog in it. the man is there to feed the dog. the dog is there to make sure the man doesn't touch anything. that's an economist joke. >> that's a terminator joke.

>> was it funny? >> that's okay. >> that was okay. >> that was not bad. let's see what else is happening this morning. we are expecting a statement this morning from israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu. telling president obama in a phone call any deal based on this framework would threaten israel's survival. the proposed merger between reynolds american allowed to go through. the ftc is considering to allow it to proceed. it was questioned whether it was going to happen. ibm is reportedly hiring advisers to help a deal with shareholder unrest. shareholders have been seeking help from investors after the company reported 11 straight quarters of falling revenue. ibm is said to bes on an investment strategy. coming up lots of details

to be ironed out with iran. but are we on the cusp of u.s./iranian relations? then the numbers of the month, the jobs report will be released. we'll have brian belski and what you can expect in the trading week ahead.

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welcome back to "squawk box." as we wait for the jobs report geopolitics also front and center this morning. security is tight at a college campus in northeast kenya a day after a militant attack there left nearly 150 people dead. the attack was carried out by the islamist militant group al shabab which has been linked to al qaeda. this was the worst attack on kenyan soil since the u.s. embassy was bombed back in 1998. the other big story this morning, iran and global powers agreeing to an initial framework to curb iran's nuclear program. michael singh is from the washington institute. thanks for being here.

>> good to be here. >> a lot of skepticism about the deal. some says it's stronger than we thought. historically, though the big issue is that iran always has cheated before. what do you think of this deal and will it actually get done and will they stick to it? >> well look. i mean the first thing to point out is it's not clear there actually is a deal. you have sort of duelling statements out there. even the united states and european statements are a bit different. iran is sort of making their own decisions about the ordeal. and their decision maker has been silent about the parameters that were announced yesterday. so not only is there a lot more to do between now and june 30th but it's not exactly clear what the status of yesterday's announcement really was. >> i want to highlight something, point out what you just said through a piece or a paragraph from the tehran times. if we can bring up this full screen. the tehran times say in the

framework of the agreement none of iran's nuclear facilities as well as the previous facilities will be stopped, shut down or suspended and iran's nuclear activities in all of its nuclear facilities will continue. and when i first read it i said that can't be right. then i looked at the fact sheet and thought you know what? it's vague enough to be accurate. >> it's correct. when you look at this deal and compare it to past u.s. positions, it looks like a lot of u.s. concessions here. and "the wall street journal" pointed that out this morning. president obama wants you to compare it to a sort of apocalyptic alternative, the alternative of war. and he wants you to see this as a breakthrough in u.s./iran relations. if you look at it in that framework, it looks like an achievement. if you look at what our positions were before, it looks like a significant climbdown for the united states. again, duelling narratives out there and only time will tell really where this comes out and

what it produces. >> impossible to answer right now whether or not this is the safest path possible correct? >> well it is. i mean i think what we can say is if this deal is culminated by june 30th it is a very narrow technical, and temporary view. so it's not going to produce the sort of major geopolitical shift that i think we've been looking for for a long time with iran. that would have to fall. that would have to come out of post deal iran policy. and there are a lot of marks against us. inside iran they're not very excited about better relations with the united states. there's a a lot of hurdles. >> the other issue with iran i bring this up because of the situation, the horrific situation in kenya with the attack by al shabab. iran still a supporter of groups like hezbollah, et cetera on the international stage. this deals with none of that. >> it doesn't deal with any of

that. that's right. it doesn't deal with iran support for terrorism. it doesn't deal with regional activities. and remember when we signed an agreement with north carolina in 1994 one of the reasons it fell apart is one of the ballistic missiles program. and so there's a lot of things which are just not addressed in this deal and again which we're going to need different policy solutions to address. >> so what happens if this deal falls apart and we don't have negotiations or an agreement with iran? what is the trajectory of nuclear progress in iran without a deal? >> well, i think if you don't see a final deal by june 30th, i think this has been going on for 12 years. the most likely alternative is the negotiations continue in some other form. you know it's not clear to me that that june 30th deadline is any more of a deadline than past

deadlines have been. then i think we're back to where we were before trying to increase the pressure to get iran back to the table. >> but doesn't progress on nuclear weapons continue in the absence of a deal? wouldn't it be more rapid? >> it's hard to say because it depends on what calculation iran makes. without a deal there are things to deter iran from taking that path. there's the effect of increasing sanctions. if iran says we're going to just sort of take away all the restrictions and expand our nuclear program, then that gives us a lot of coverage to go around the national community and give more sanctions. it also raises the specter of military conflict. just two days ago josh earnest was saying again that military strike on iran was a possible alternative to a negotiation. whether you believe that president obama would do that or not, the iranians have to think about the next president, think about israel. they have to think about arab states as well which is active in the region.

>> good to have you on. thanks for joining us this morning. >> thank you. coming up the march jobs report. we'll have numbers and instant reaction from our panel. and check out this lineup for monday. we will talk final four results with nbc's dave briggs. and the cfo of ubs. a lot of letters there. and we might be rotflmao after that interview. and then get this doors, it's domino's. ceo will be here. wtf. >> rt-what?

developing story out of louisville, kentucky right now. take a look at your screen. these are live pictures coming into the newsroom. this four-alarm fire at the building of the ge appliance park there. fire departments are on the scene. fire seems to be in a mostly vacant part of the facility. one concern, massive flooding from the ohio river this morning could make traffic complicated for the rescue crews. let's get to the final predictions from our panel. rick santelli joins us from

chicago. rick, your prediction, please. >> 201,000. >> fancy type. >> wow. >> this is an easy one. they're not going to make it stop at 13. they have emeril lagasse in the kitchen going bam! it's going to be 201. >> all right. moving onto mark zandi. >> i think i have to agree with mark. 200 k. >> hassett, go ahead. >> 174. >> you explained that earlier. >> i sure did. >> all right. andy stern. >> 198. >> nice. joe? joe, are you ready? >> here it comes. >> nice. grateful dead. >> nice. very nice. >> because i saw you do one. >> i did one but i'm terrible. >> so much better! show yours now. >> no. i don't want to show mine. >> did you work at that?

>> i did one on the back to see if i could get it done. you did that to one up me didn't you? >> yes. it's in color too. >> nice. very nice. i think that's it. oh. we got a little bit of time here? >> we're way below consensus. >> we've got one minute. >> consensus is 248. >> everybody's below. >> let's hear from rick. where are the bonds positioning this morning? i saw the little tick down in the strength of the dollar this morning. >> you know, i think no matter what happens personally with this number i think you're going to see rates pretty much stay in a range between 186 and 191 today. if i had to guess, i think they'd settle around where we're trading now. the issue you want to pay most attention to continues to be the euro currency and the greenback. >> we're going to do that when we come back. joe, you have the toss to break.

>> coming up -- thank you. >> just go ahead. >> color. i even had color. >> it was nice. >> thank you. >> as we head to break, take a look at u.s. equity futures. they're kind of flat. we'll see what happens after the number.

just seconds away from the jobs report. let's get right down to hampton pearson at the labor department. hampton? >> 126,000. march non-farm payrolls increased by just 126,000 jobs. that's the lowest since december of 2013. the unemployment rate 5.5%. average hourly earnings up slightly 0.3%. as we said this is the lowest gain we've had in jobs since december of 2013 when it was 109,000. obviously way below the consensus which was for 248,000 jobs. we also had some significant downward revisions for january and february. the total downward revisions for the two months 69,000 fewer jobs than previously reported. it might be a knee jerk thing to say weather had to play a role. based on at least the household

survey, weather was not a factor. there were 182,000 people with a job but not at work due to weather in the month of march. but however, they're actually still counted as being at work. job gains, just a few. professional and business services, up 40,000. health care, plus 22,000. retail trade, plus 26,000. also across big sectors of the economy we had little gains or even some negatives. mining was down by 11,000. manufacturing, transportation showing little to no gains. construction actually was done 1,000. manufacturing off 1,000. government, 3,000 fewer jobs. civilian labor force participation rate 62.7%. long-term unemployed 2.6 million. 29.8%. back to you.

>> wow. what an interesting report. >> i was closest. >> yeah but if you go over you're out. so we're all out. >> this is not "the price is right". >> it is. let me turn first to mark zandi here. your thoughts on -- >> wait a minute. everyone went over? >> everyone went over. >> so my face wins. i won again! >> put it up to show it again. >> can you reach that? >> we can't reach it. we'll get it. >> i won with pi. i won with john 3:16. >> let's get serious for half a second here. >> i can try. >> mark your thoughts on what's going on. monday we started talking about the possibility of a weak number. >> three things. one is definitely weather. you can feel it in the construction decline. you can feel it in the weak retail numbers. energy, obviously that is having an impact on the job numbers. and -- >> that's the manufacturing

decline you think? >> mining was down. and i bet you the dollar is now having an effect too. that's the manufacturing effect. >> look at the futures. when we went in there, it suggested an open of nearly 4 points. now a decline of 56 points for the dow. >> but i don't think the world is now 135k. i think we're still well above 200k. >> to the panel's credit, everybody was substantially below consensus by a lot. the average on this panel was probably below 200,000. kevin, your thoughts on how to treat this? and look at the euro which looks to have strengthened in the last couple of seconds here. >> the first thing is that joe asserting that he won means that you're a zero right? he's effectively saying putting the face means zero. >> no. i just didn't go over. >> you need to defend yourself. >> his comments were definitely the most in -- and nobody listened. they don't listen to you

anymore. the adp number was down. >> did you hear what the revisions were? they were all down. i bet you they're now very close -- adp was on the soft side. >> let's get to rick here. rick, because there is some activity in the bond market today, what are yields doing? >> you know, it was fascinating. the knee jerk reaction you went down to 182 no the tens. went back up to 186. hovering at 182. 186 on the close. closed below significant. but it's watching stocks and stocks are watching the euro. so the euro as we talked about earlier, really nice. solid pop. and the volatility and the equities is to the downside as the dollar of course, continues to weaken which you can argue should be bullish. i like the interpretation of what's going on with the equities. but the other thing is there's curve implications. the big moves are on the short

end. two-year note. hovering at 48. finally we're starting to see more of a yield curve reflect the notion that if the fed is data dependent, short end. >> all right. what's happening is dialing back on fed expectations. right? that's what you mean when the short end starts to come down. >> and on the 10-year you said it went to 182, it was at 190. that's a pretty big move in a short amount of time when we're this low. >> this is part of i think the story that we'll see for the next few months which is the first response to the big decline in energy prices is that you see lower sales at the walmart gas station. you see the people shutting down the drilling and the trucks not going there and capital investment in energy sector going down. but the second act of that is people who recognize that they spent 200 bucks a month less at the gas station and then they go out and start buying things. but that second act is the second half of the year or at least a summer thing. so we're going to have a weaker

first half and stronger second half. >> it takes time to figure what to do with it. >> by the way, let's bring in andy. it takes businesses time to gear up for that change that's out there in terms of you're out there selling oil and all of a sudden there's money to sell something else. but you don't necessarily have the capacity for it. >> i think that's true. and, you know i do think it's going to lag behind. i'm just not so convinced that people have other debts and things that they're going to be looking at to pay off and that all of it will go into the consumer spending. but i think you'll see some bump because of it. i just look at the revisions going backwards not knowing a lot. and that kind of worries me. we keep revising downward. >> rick can you give us your sense? and i know you'll give us your sense of when you think the fed should raise which i think was six months ago or a year or two years ago. but what is the market right now? is there a better bet on a particular month right now in the market? >> you know listen. i know we all want to say watch fed fund futures or watch how

the dollars convert. but i really do think it's different this time. i don't think those metrics work. when you could say that the janet yellen and company could look at fed fund being in a certain place and then connect the dots next meaning cut that in half there's no way to price that in. i think until normalization begins, we can't trust the market's expectation. but what we can do is when we see a week number and five-year note yields five basis buoyants and the long is down half of that. that's your best indicator. the market is going to believe that janet yellen is really data dependent. because they were already biased thinking -- >> then why is the stock market not rallying then? if you think this number is so bad it pushes janet yellen further out on the calendar -- >> probably because if you were a trader you only have 25 minutes to trade on the electronic trade. so what are you doing sfood?

>> did you notice the average hourly earn sngs they were up .3% and that would be consistent. if we start getting .2%, .3%. >> given this number, what should the fed do? should it look through this number and say i should stay on track to an interest rate hike despite this number. pay more attention to the wage growth in there. less attention to maybe what is noisier. >> two things. one, i always get nervous about average wage growth. that puts together high end and low end. and two is i think she should focus on jobs. >> even at this slow rate of growth. 139 -- did i get that number right? was that the number? for this month's gain. what was it? >> 126. >> all right. 126 in a typical economy would be considered to be pretty good. >> enough to bring down the unplamt rate? >> it's not the rate you need to

absorb the people coming into the labor force, right? so our bar is now a lot higher. because we've been experiencing very rapid job growth. >> i want to give you a shot at that. >> rick you probably agree with this. i think some day it becomes clear to people that the fed is out of bullets and we're really not doing that great right now. even if we do stay at zero sooner or later, the day comes when people say we've been bidding up the market based on zero. but it really doesn't help the underlying economy. and sooner or later that's hitting home. 129. what if we get a series of 129? mark doesn't think so. how do we cut rates from here if we do enter a slow period? we've got nothing. we've got nothing left. we can't get out. >> but there actually is something. there is something. >> that's the argument why the fed doesn't want to raise rates too soon. >> saying we haven't built up anything.

>> rick, go ahead. >> i think ira harris should be on the fomc committee. because he has been spreading the notion normalization is actually more important than raising rates. what he would do is he would throw some of the reserves in the market place. it's starved for good collateral anyway. a step towards normalization, if they miss timing to raise rates a bit, i understand they're in a corner here. if anything happens in the business cycle falls off the cliff, we're already extending through the average life. they don't have an encore. i say let reserves go. >> bad news won't be good news anymore. >> yes. >> the economy is going to need -- the market is going to need good news. it's just where you can't say wow traders are glad because they're not going to raise. >> is that happening today? >> i have some information about your face that perhaps you were not the sole author of that art there.

>> i requested it. >> but you didn't necessarily draw it yourself. >> somebody else drew that? >> you're taking credit for somebody else's work. >> i'll tell you what i drew? i asked to steal your face and all i got was the thing at the top. >> you put the skeleton in there. i put the skeleton and the circle in like 30 seconds. somebody else did the color part. >> okay. >> how did i miss this? >> yeah. it was right here and i had to hides it from you. that's what all the printing stuff was. i did this for you. but i won because i didn't go over. >> that's right. you're the winner. still to come on this very special edition of "squawk box," brian belski his thoughts on the numbers and what the market will make of it. here's the futures. they've gone negative. "squawk box" will be right back. my world, wall isn't a street. return on investment isn't the only return

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welcome back to "squawk box." the futures now suggest a negative open. the dow would open lower by about 100 points considering they were positive before the jobs number came out. let's show you what's going on with yields. the 10-year yield was 1.90 beforehand. now it's 1.85. is that what that says? >> 1.83. >> fairly big move. 2-year yield is below 1%.

>> nice. >> so yields have definitely moved lower. and stocks have moved lower. >> and we're going to go to brian belski joining us now. he's at bmo capital markets. hold on for one second. paulsen, jim paulsen e-mailed ede-mailed. he's been talking about the notion we're underestimating how much it comes back. that will be a good thing eventually. but it's going to help. the dollar won't get that much stronger because eventually you're going to see that there is some inflation which we don't think about. it was a 3.7% annualized wage. that's different, isn't it? anyway brian, normally 129 would cause the futures to go up. just recently that happened. i said they want to mainline

more qe. and did not do that today. >> have you said clean needles? >> sam zell. he said why does the qe work -- it'll work as long as the needle is clean. anyway brian, you still bullish on this? or you think eventually it's going to be problematic for the stock market? >> well near term you know 2015 is turning into quite the transition year again as we kind of unwind the former thinking and wind up the real thinking. and the real thinking is down the line as we see rising interest rates is actually good for the stock market and good for the economy. so i think at the end of the last segment, you said bad news is going to transition to bad news. and good news is going to transition to good news. finally. i think that's a positive. i think the report is mostly disappointing. it's not bad news. it's certainly not surprising news especially considering the tone of corporate america coming out of fourth quarter earnings and really what we've seen in terms of estimates coming down for the rest of the year.

corporate america is retrenching a little bit. we had bad weather in february and march. not too surprising. the key factor we think, and you're doing a good job highlighting it is wages -- this is all about wages and wages were actually positive. so we don't think that it takes the fed off track from raising rates earlier this year. >> yeah. that was the very first question we asked this morning that june is coming. why not? a quarter. a quarter. just do the quarter and then you don't have to do anything again. but i don't know if they're data dependent. the only data they might be dependent on is if the market really were to sell off, maybe they might not do it. >> well i think the nervousness in the market is really transitioning to how the rest of the world is handling their qe. see some volatility in asian markets which is likely. the key thing investors need to understand is the template that

many investors are trying to play in europe and asia was the same way that they played stocks in 2009 and 2010. but the difference is that the fundamental backdrop of america in 2009 2010 is much different than the fundamental backdrop of europe and asia right now. so, yes, developed markets, u.s. is underperforming so far this year after the big run the next six years. we wouldn't be too fast to throw all of our assets overseas. the market is taking a breather here. again, we transition into fundamental investing where good news is good news and bad news is bad news. >> we better hope we get some good news. that's the only thing. you think we're up for the year though, brian? you're a long-term bull. you think the s&p has a positive gain? it's already april. i mean it's -- we're barely up. >> well it was a volatile start of the year joe. and i think mr. paulsen's right. i think the wage pressure is going to be the key thing.

and remember too, everyone's talking about the positive impacts of lower oil for the consumer. what about the positive impacts in terms of input price ifs for the manufacturing side as we try to get things going again as well. no one's talking about that. and so we think the industrial sector, the tech sector continues to be great places to be with respect to growth. that's where we really see the big surprise in earnings coming the second half of the year. >> should people have covered their short euro? >> well certainly this morning if you look at it joe, we're up above 1.10 where we haven't been since the end of march. we're about to take out an early march high. all i can say is we started late last week talking about the idea that this could be a disappointment. and that's a very logical trade, the idea that jobs could disappoint. >> the first time you lost big money on that trade. >> the drum beat was so strong for parity parity. it was so consensus.

thought, oh yeah. it'll work out just fine. >> what's happening with rates again? >> you think it's still coming. >> yeah. europe is enjoying a cyclical bounce because of the weaker euro and decline in energy prices. but the structural problems are still in place. i don't think the ecb will be raising rates for a long long time. >> ten years i bet. >> but the crucial thing about today's number -- mark if you whack into the natural rate of unemployment, this is what the report looks like. if you get to full employment, then all of a sudden you see wage growth and not many jobs. so three or four of these in a row, then we're saying okay we're at full employment and that's the normal wage pressure that makes the fed have to move. but that's really bad for equities and bad for businesses because the fed's going to be moving and wages are going to be skyrocketing because maybe the fed is a little -- but three of these in a row with the wage --

>> i don't think this is related to a top labor market. the weather was bad. the energy effects were significant. we still have -- here's a number for you. we had 6.5 million people who stepped out of the workforce that say they want a job. if you go back before the recession, it was close tore 4.5 to 5 million. >> the scary thing is the we have to worry about getting up up higher. if that switches to where we see it could get out of control at some point. >> we are so far away from that. >> i don't think so. >> the 10-year bond is at 1.83. >> then the fed would find themselves, wow, we're three or four hundred basis points too low. >> inflation is over target for awhile. bring it on. >> inflation is too low. we've definitely got to heat things up. that's a bad thing.

>> as long as you worry about it, it ain't never going to happen. >> that is a good point. you are the force, joe. you are super anti-inflation. >> right now the consensus is inflation is never going to be a problem again. >> in a country that causes raises, cannot have inflation. >> so joe, in the dna of the federal reserve board is that we cannot let inflation get out of control. we've learned that lesson. so there's no way. >> brian, thank you so much. >> no no. >> keep worrying. >> weepkeep worrying. we are worrying. we will wrap up our special coverage of jobs report with our panel. and a preview of big data points coming up next week including the fomc minutes. and next week, check out some of the big guests coming. domino's ceo.

and friday chairman of the boston red sox tom werner is our guest host. we'll be right back. good. very good. you see something moving off the shelves and your first thought is to investigate the company. you are type e*. yes, investment opportunities can be anywhere... or not. but you know the difference. e*trade's bar code scanner. shorten the distance between intuition and action. e*trade opportunity is everywhere.

we're back with more from our jobs panel this morning. i want to explore more about

this issue of the dollar and whether or not it's parity based on divergence in interest rates. mark zandi, we had a quick moment there. is it another ten years before europe ever raises rates again? >> i think it's a little extreme, but if you told me five, six, seven, eight years. >> our economy is more dynamic. >> for the euro/dollar, it's two years versus treasury yields. you look at that spread it's a strong predictor of euro. given what the fed is going to do and ecb is going to do. >> based on how long we have kept serp in place and we have more issues they could go far longer. >> but the thing is that the european economy is really surprising on the upside this year. last fall i was thinking it's a recession year next year for europe. and it's not because of the positive oil shock. but the fact is that europe's very strong right now when compared to what we thought. but they're not as strong as us.

>> all right. "the profit" is coming on after us so we can't mess this up. thank mark thank andy. and thank you, steve. thank you. you get the last best one. >> thanks joe. i enjoyed being with you. >> we will see you on monday. that does it for "squawk box." it has magnesium and works more naturally than stimulant laxatives. for gentle cramp free relief of occasional constipation that works! mmm mmm live the regular life. being a keen observer of the world has gotten you far but what if you could see more of what you wanted to know? with fidelity's new active trader pro investing platform, the information that's important to you is all in one place, so finding more insight is easier. it's your idea powered by active trader pro. another way fidelity gives you a more powerful investing experience. call our specialists today to get

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>> tonight on the profit... good morning, i'm marcus. >> nice meeting you. >> i go inside a. stein meat products, a wholesale meat supplier in brooklyn, new york that does $50 million of revenue annually. >> good burger. >> it's the best. due to high operating costs and razor-thin margins, stein is hemorrhaging cash. >> everybody you order from, wants their money in ten days. we don't have the money to pay them. >> i can't turn this business around... this business is two weeks away from closing. this 75-year-old company will close for good. my name is marcus lemonis. i fix failing businesses. i make tough decisions. and, frank, you are no longer the general manager. and i back them up with my own cash. it's not always pretty. >> perfect flavor. >> but this is business. [bleep] is gonna change.