most ever for april movie. one of the top ten openings. it is monday april 6th, 2015 and "squawk box" begins right now. >> announcer: live from new york where business never sleeps. this is "squawk box." >> good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm michelle along with joe kernen and scott walker. attention apple fans it is a big week for you. the company posting a first of series of videos. this friday apple begin taking preorders and let you try the watch on in the stores. the device will be available, finally, on april 24th. one potential catch. c net reports you won't be able to show up and buy the watch without first making an appointment for a fitting within the store.

if you're waking thup morning be, let's get you up to speed on the markets. the futures are suggesting a fairly negative open. dow open lower by 130 points. wall street is returning from a long holiday weekend which included no trading on friday and jobs report though despite their trading on friday which shows march payrolls raising 126,000. that was much weaker than expected. we had lots of people on the set on friday. not a single person got close to the number. everybody was above. >> all though everybody was below -- >> i was not. >> i was not above. >> i saw the thing. >> everybody was below. everybody was below the estimate. >> this is our thing. not your thing. >> we do it every morning when it comes on. you can't duoover. >> did you draw it yourself? >> i did. >> i drew the bottom part.

>> the top part -- you like it? >> it was great. >> every month i have to come up with something. i won't play the stupid. you see how productive it is. >> like it matters what my guess is. write down three numbers. who cares what i -- i put pie down. i got that one. john 3: 16 once. i was closer than leaseman than the excel spread sheets. >> one thing we did do was kick around the possible negative things the number could mean. i don't think -- there's no one thinks that the answer is more zero interest rates. that's not going to help us at this point. we have to build up. there's a slow down and the number confirmed a lot that the one thing that hasn't been dropping off was employment that all the other weird numbers consumer retail. they had been weak already. then we had the great claims

number on wednesday or thursday which we got down to 260 something and this came and it was like, wow, is this a 3% gdp economy in 2015? really? >> yeah. it puts the fed, to me in a real pickle now. it risks its own credibility. they telegraphed now that okay a rate hike is coming this year. almost everybody -- >> but if you get a bad jobs number on friday what happens if it's backed up by another. what happens if they can't raise the rate. >> they might as well, you know they might as well -- they're out of bullets. the stuff they have done has only been so effective. >> do you think -- >> they go in june. they better go in june. >> so you talked about it for a long time. i think it raises the chance they never hike in 2015. >> that's the scary thing. they're in the rhodes motel. i think they go in june. i think they have to. >> i don't think they go at all. >> if they don't go at all then

it's -- >> that's what i'm saying. fisher said they're going this year. >> but they're data dependent and the data was bad. you know what do you think she's more focussed on inflation or jobs? >> i think the dollar at this point, you know, that run is sort of over because who knows if they go up and that economy is not that much better anywhere else. i think you can probably bet on europe. and the bull market going on forever? we're not up for the year are we? it's mr. halftime report. you have the statistics. >> we're up a tiny last week. >> i know. when we go down today -- >> when we go down today. >> the nasdaq is up for the year, i think, like 4%. >> it's bad if one day takes you for the year. that shows you how close to flat. >> there are years when the market goes down. we haven't had one in six years or something. >> 2009. >> there's almost a generation of people who have no idea that markets actually go down. >> right. >> they also have no idea that it can be lucrative and great. they're still the meillennial'smillennial's.

they're asking for flex time. >> yeah. >> they are. >> premiums. >> yeah. >> i finally realize that generations, like when you're three or four generations removed from the young generation then nothing you do is cool. like you would think holding up ungrateful dead thing is for some business guy that is, you know, that is in his late 40s or whenever i am. early 50s. but holding it up 60 plus set. it was cool. >> that's whey mean. >> the millennial's that are cool today listening to adamly convene or something. they looked at me like what is that, grandpa? ungrateful who? jerry garcia when did he die? in the last century or something. >> i feel it. >> i feel they're saying that. >> anyway. >> all right. >> thank you for taking your jacket off. >> yeah. >> you look good. >> thank you.

>> someone wrote in water. some movers and water even jigglier are even worse. >> yeah. i'm trimming the frame. i'm good. >> i do, too. >> drew a photograph. >> those are even better. i'm going have that. i was impressed. you're going to want me. anyway. all right. here are the other big stories we're watching today. oil prices rises sharply among the catalysts. saudi arabia hiking prices for crude sales to asia for a second month. better demand in the region. crude dropped at the end of last week on the iran nuclear deal. analysts are cautioning the country is unlikely to ramp up ex exports. athens repay loan due from the imf. the managing director and the greek minister met in washington

yesterday. european markets closed for easter monday. sources telling me federal law enforcement agencies recently contacted several top herb life members for information about their business practices. it's unclear what law enforcement asked for at this point. and in a separate story, they severed inquiries recently lyly irregular trading in the stock. part of a broader investigation into possible market manipulation. the largest independent shareholder telling me he has no intex -- intention of eliminating his part in the company. he might be looking to exit his position after recently changing his filing status with the s.e.c., he said. >> i was working the story last night. >> i haven't seen -- >> 8.something percent. he's the ceo of boast holdings. >> yeah. okay. >> i'm told this is around maybe

they contacted up to 10 or so of their top members for information. it's a new development in the ongoing story. >> how long has he been in? >> he's been in washington for a long people were thinking he amended his s.e.c. filing on friday night, right. good friday from a 13d to a 13g, which theoretically would make it easier for him to sell stock. anonymity. not telegraphing the market. not having to tell every time he sold it. he has no intention. he has never done more due diligence on a single investment than this and nothing has changed his opinion. >> why did he change the status then? >> he said it's a better reflect his relationship with the company. whatever means. >> i don't see how he can do the

due diligence and come to that conclusion. >> i think if it was sitting here he would say that the due diligence was flawed from the start. that he looks at this and says this is obvious there is nothing wrong with their business model. there's nothing there for regulators to shut the company down and get the complete opposite of the spectrum. >> it's multilevel marketing. it's, you know, it's weird. it's one man's pyramid scheme is one man's level marketing success story. let's check on the markets this morning. we need to maybe feel some pain after that number on friday. nothing was open. we saw the futures briefly trade on friday. an, you know, that's what we're looking at today. i don't like -- a lot of times when you start off down 135 before the market opens you're not sure where the bottom is. i don't know where it will be by halftime. it could be anywhere. >> it's an exciting thing. you never know.

>> i mean, we go 2 and 300 points like it's nothing at this point. we'll see what happens today. we're starting off nervous about earnings and nervous about the economy and employment. we'll see. >> don't you think it's, you know, one thing -- would you rather have the futures look the way they do now rather than the futures be up and be -- >> yeah. i would rather have it. >> which we discuss so often. >> i would rather have them up. >> but start off down 135. >> i'm so tired of that. >> down 300 is right after down 200. and then i don't know one of these days we'll take out a big number. i don't know. that's the data dependent. that's the question i have. are they data dependent when it means equity markets. i think they might be. let's look at the ten year -- that's asia markets. the ten year -- so much for 2%

happening or 3%. >> or 1.9 even. >> yeah. 1.84. check out the dollar because maybe, you know, people that said par was in the bag at 105 i don't know now we're back to 110. did we see oil? what happened to iran oil? >> oil is up about 3%. >> what happened to iranian oil? flooding the markets so much for that. >> saudi arabia is raising prices. >> and, you know, the papers are talking about weather how the deal -- and you don't know what it's going to look like in june. there's so much acura money and disagreement and both sides claiming different things. >> don't you get the sense that the spth desperate to get it done? >> i was thinking this morning about the never tieing jihads or terrorism to islam. did it all have to do with a appeaseing iran to get the deal done for legacy. is it all about that really?

>> yeah. >> and the, you know, the bad relations and did it all have to do with getting this done? >> when you look at what the journal is reporting how quickly they gave in on enrichment capacity. day one can't do that. okay. next. they could have taken a stance. >> it speaks to the interview that the president gave tom friedman about the obama doctrine. >> i didn't read that. i just didn't. i should. let's get more -- moving on. >> we'll fill you in later. >> engagement. >> right. >> engagement over isolation, having the confidence -- >> engagement with the opportunity to do something if it doesn't work. something. >> and the willingness to take risks. to be confident enough in yourself. >> i feel we're taking huge risk. i do. we're risking everything. >> is it ronald reagan risk nixon risk?

or jimmi carter? we're taking a big risk. let's get more on the markets after friday. tom leaf any change in your overall outlook at this point? all systems go? >> yeah, i mean it's disappointing, though. i think markets it was a pretty weak number on a heel of disappointing data for q 1. when i look at the rest of the year i think these are temporary factors. >> you need it to be not just a stock market phenomena now. it used to be the fed was able to not control but a lot of fed action helped the stock market with a weak economy. with the assumption that the economy would -- that the fed would eventually pass the baton to a stronger economy. >> yeah. that's questionable now. why stay? >> that's a good question but i

think the question we need to ask ourselves is the economy capable of generateing organic growth. i think when you look at housing there's evidence of that. home buildings are outperforming year to date. it's one of the few bright spots. when we look at capital spending it's been weak. but it's going to tighten this year and it's a precursor to capital spending u picking up. >> you're not concerned about the economy. it seems like you're pretty easy to brush off the disappointing jobs report when even some of the data leading up to it was pretty disappointing. >> i mean, it is disappointing. as you know you go in for expectations. even the fed expecting the number for the year and we're tracking lower for the first quarter, but yeah again, i think if q 2 is tracking at the same level we have to worry about it. i think a lot are temporary factors. the dollar is reversing. construction was a drag. government was a drag. we don't expect to see it the rest of the year.

do you shift your view as a result of the number? >> in general we thought there wasn't going to be enough justification to do something in june. so, you know, we have -- >> is there enough in september? >> well, -- >> you hesitate. >> yeah. >> i would say that it would be -- the market would be in a better position if we did something in september. only because i think we would be seeing better european and japanese data at that time. i think the timing would coincide with sort of better global growth expectations. >> you said the market would not handle a rate hike in june? >> i think it could cause concern. to simplify it i think you would be talking about the narrative would be hey, the fed is tightening at the time when the rest of the world is easing. >> that's going to be the case regardless when it moves. >>well, i think as we move later in the year you know, with the eurozone picking up and showing evidence of picking up, i mean q 1 europe will grow faster than the u.s. i think it changes the dynamic

of non-u.s. qe versus u.s. qe. >> it's weird. we're nowhere near normalzation rates given 5.5% unemployment. why is it factored in? we should be in a different position based on there's no sense. you don't 5.5% and zero don't jive? >> i don't envy being the fed right now. but i -- >> what are we getting for it? are we that weak and the economy is built on such a weak foundation that we need to stay at zero or else we go to? >> well, i think it is a tricky situation to have to be pulled out of and i think market reaction is probably something we have to be mindful of and meeting expectations. >> couldn't the people that say that the part of the problem is being at zero is part of the problem with holding the economy back? that, you know, number one people are perhaps waiting to do

things until they see the first hike and there's no savings. people can't earn anything on money and a lot of money goings into planting and developments goes into financial engineering and goes to places it shouldn't be going. >> i agree. if we're six years into an expansion, and, you know, the economy is growing at 2, should the fed be at zero? >> that would indicate there's serious underlying fundn'tamental problems. >> we've had low rates in past regimes. this is not the first time we've had low interest rates. what i think is key is the feds tightening, right, is it going to be seen as a positive investment signal? i would say without a question ultimately it's going to be seen as positive. >> then they should go in two. you staid. >> but -- the fed has, i mean --

>> it can do a quarter and not do anymore can't they? >> you know, i think it's a tough job. >> i hope they're watching. come on. grow up. >> are you one of those guys -- >> really grow up janet. >> you're a stock guy. rates stay low, right. i guess that would be your starting position. >> i think that equity investors that were doing the qe trade or the bond trade a lot have taken to europe. i don't think there's as much the bond proxy trade in the u.s. as there was a couple of years ago. >> okay. and we see utilityies have weaken. stocks are outperforming. i think there's less now. >> all right. you're not as bullish. you don't sound like you're worried. >> i'm worried. >> you definitely don't sound as bullish as you have. >> yeah. >> waffling. >> i think the question i would ask myself is, look, what would we do if the market has a bad week and we're down two?

i think it's going to be a buying opportunity, but, you know, in the face of a weak jobs number, it's not something that is everything is on track. >> all right. >> thank you. >> supposedly jersey garcia died the same day that netscape went public. >> really? >> is there some poety there? >> netscape isn't around anymore. that was the beginning of the dot-com era. that'smillennial. my kids don't remember when they didn't have electronics. >> do youillennial's know -- >> he's a geezer. but jerry. >> no dice. >> should you explain why -- >> right. along with mark. >> yeah. i assumed people know. they don't. >> not necessarily. >> they don't. coming up a huge week for sports. the ncaa championship tonight. the masters a few days after.

dave brigs of nbc sports joins us on set. first, as we head to break, here is a look back at this day in history. e financial noise financial noise financial noise financial noise

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a live picture outside lucas oil stadium. tonight the men's ncaa basketball championship game. wisconsin stunned kentucky on saturday night ending the undefeated season. it was the highest rated final four game in 22 years.

would fans tune in if the players were paid? cnbc economic reporter joins us with an early look at the cnbc all america economic survey. will people tune in? >> a lot surprising number. a lot of polls asked americans whether they support paying college players. as many as 66% say they do not. we asked in our all-america survey a different question and come up with interesting results. first, let's take a look who is watching at all. and the numbers are 35% of the public say they watched a lot, some, or just a little. 65%. that's a big number for any broadcast at all. 35%. then we took the next step and said would you still watch among those who are say their fans would you still watch if the players were paid? 7% said more likely. 32% would be less likely. and 61% say no difference.

they say what is the difference. when you look at the big money that is college basketball. if you're messing around with 31 or 32% of the potential viewership that's a serious -- i don't believe its. it is what it is. >> what do you think would happen? >> not going to watch the games the past weekend if players were paid? they're not going to care. the coaches are making billions of dollars. >> hang on. you're not going to improve salaries. if it it was a true free market kids would be making $5 or $10 million. i don't know if you would watch. >> with the kids making $5 or $10 million. what you have is a second rate minor league basketball. >> some people say you already do. do. >> let me tell you one other thing the most likely to say they wouldn't watch it's men over 50. it's rich men worth more than $100,000 in salaries.

>> i didn't realize that was rich. >> it is very rich. >> what do you make? >> in new york city you're not rich if you make $100,000. >> in the country, you are rich if you make $75,000. post graduate degree 25%. here is the problem for the ncaa, these are the people most likely to be watching. they're saying least likely to -- we'll have the full reports tomorrow on the economy and everything else. but want to bring it before the title. >> it is interesting and i'm thinking about it a lot lately. let me read this first. one wildcat super fan went as far as getting inked. he might be experiencing buyers remorse today. for more on tonight's big game and the masters, you know, with the way calipari can compete and u.k.'s history, i think that's probably -- it's better than

some tattoos. it will last longer. >> it says 40-02015. >> okay. that is bad. i didn't see that part. >> a bit of a problem. >> i think with creativity you can make the 5, make it a 2. i watched -- i was with everybody else and, you know, we got about ten different things to talk about with the pay. >> i think 30% of people are lying. i think it's the most beautiful. many people complained the offense has been down. officiating too many timeouts. it's true. too long timeouts. you know, the last five minutes of the duke-utah game was 35 minutes. the last 8:00 of the kentucky-notre dame game eight timeouts. before that you read it's the highest rated final four game since ''93 people love this game. >> i was ready to ditch big time. did you see the foul away from

the ball on the three-pointer that was called back. did you see the guy? another one kentucky was totally moving and they called it an offensive foul. there were three really bad ones. >> there was bad officiating throughout the tournament and in that game in particular. i think it came out. >> the free throw discrepancy in the duke game were ridiculous. i don't remember what the number is. >> are you suggesting duke is getting calls? >> i would never. i would never do that. >> duke may get a few calls. it's a dominant team on the court. it was never a contest. >> did you see snl's take on paying college athletes? they willhad a guy dressed up saying he's not going to play on monday night. since he's a student athlete -- >> he's not ready for the biology test. because the one year in college is a rich experience for these athletes, the one year they

spend. >> they did a good job. >> the player of the year in the game has one class now and it's a study online class. he has one class he doesn't even have to show up for. is he a student in any way, shape, or form? no. he's the best player in the tournament and the second best player makes the game absolutely perfect. >> there's no effect. >> it could be -- it may well be. i just got the numbers. if yo pay him a couple of thousand. either they're -- you get to go for example, let's say you go to stanford, get a great education, and there's a lot of money in college sports. can't you spread it around to the different sports. lady, you know. title ix is going to be -- >> it helps the colleges. while you're there, if you're great you'll have a great career

and -- >> the answer is no. you can only pay revenue sports. if you try to pay every single sport forget it. >> here is the thing. title ix will be a problem. for basketball and football. >> if they can pay without changing the economics. that's why the viewership question is important. they have the money around then it's okay. if they pay and they turn people off and ruin what you say one of the finest tournaments in all of sports anywhere. >> but why would paying them ruin it? >> because people are -- some people -- we don't know. some people are tuning in. what is the right way to put it. fictitious romance of -- amateur. it seems collectively as a nation we fool ourselves. so the romance gone? >> i think it's about the romance. people don't know what is playing. people have no idea the names of

the players in this southerntournament. >> they know duke and wisconsin. >> more talent on kentucky than anywhere else. >> no question but the best team was wisconsin. >> we won't remember unless they're in the nba. not shaking hands, a racial slur in enforced the stur owe types that people had about kentucky. it didn't make a lot of sense. how about the masters you saw jordan spieth? >> he's the hottest player in golf. a win and two second place finishes. he comes in the second highest favorite behind only rory mcilroy the number one player in the world. >> he hasn't come out of the gate strong and he rant really seemed to take command of the number one ranking ever. he's clearly the best player in golf. i look for jordan spieth to come out there. he has more stones if you will. he seems to have the mentality

of it. he wants that moment. >> did you see the up-and-down on 18 yetsterday before the playoff? >> the 18th hole messed with him off the tee. he had a tough time. >> it is very hard. holmes hitting it three times just right -- >> j.b. holmes you have to be happy for him with the final round 64 and hangs on long enough. there's a couple of americans patrick reid is a guy you have to look out for. >> stones too. >> yeah. and then bubba watson is number three. and tiger woods comes back 28-1 shot. first golf in two months. i would be surprised if he makes the cuts. it he has the yips forget about it. you can't chip. >> and the tight lies at augusta. >> how is his head going to work? >> i'm not even playing -- i'm not tiger and i'm nervous for him on the tight lies. >> it's been great for the passes though. tickets are through the roof. ratings will be up 10 or 20%.

it's his last masters before he turns 40 too. i came up with that by myself. it is going to be nerve wracking for him. >> but, you know, he's so solid. >> he had the mental edge on everyone. now he doesn't intimidate anybody. and i think jordan spieth has it. >> that was a long one on 18 he had to hit and i heard the camera. >> the putt on 18 well and the back swing. jordan spieth complained about back swing camera noise. he said i'm not making excuses in the interview. he and stepped up and didn't want to be a wienerne whiner. >> it would be nice if we could watch the entire masters rather than -- >> yeah. >> we don't want to hit "squawk box" from 6:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. it's a certain skarsty. it's a certain -- >> "squawk box" is from 6:00 to 9:00. >> people would prefer it to 6:00 to 6:00.

>> they prefer -- >> get themselves a masters app and you can watch it online. >> during the noon hour they would prefer more squawk. >> let's get out of the stone age and show the entire -- >> we didn't get any picks. duke or wisconsin? >> wisconsin. big 10! >> duke is peaking. >> wisconsin. >> duke. >> okay. let's go doubles! >> i'm glad everybody in the tournament got to feel what i'm feeling and that is being a loser. everybody who had kentucky is a loser. coming up -- >> wow. >>well they are. >> they're not going to win. they're not going to win and neither am i. a ad in the new york times this weekend catching our attention. we'll tell you why after this.

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catching our eye this weekend, did you see the ad in the new york times. full page from air bb advertising 1,000 places available to stay in cuba. look at the graphic. it weirded me out. cuban flag and u.s. flag and made it look like the moon. one giant leap for man's kindness. >> what does mean? >> i didn't get it. is it kind to go rent an apartment or a place to stay in cuba? is that what they meant? i didn't understand it. >> it was kind -- >> cubans opening their homes to americans? >> maybe. >> maybe. >> of course tourists can't go. >> open up basically not continuing along the path we're on for 50 years.

but that's a political statement by air bnb. >> absolutely. >> that's weird. i'm keelfeeling kind of starbucky which is an uncomfortable feeling. >> i was in washington it weekend intense rumors this is the week that cuba is going to be removed from the list of state sponsors of terrorism. which would make them the next step before establishing -- >> the castro brothers have been rehabilitate dated by president obama. >> yeah. ncaa basketball. >> i watched the editorial board over the weekend. i think it's the other network fox. wow those guys are conservative. i like them dorothy was on them talking about indiana. whoa! man. i'm a little more main stream. those guys are -- >> yep. >> conservative. obama rehabilitate tates --

>> sarcastic with the title. >> yeah. >> how long until tourists are going to be able to go? >> the way the regulations are right now, right now. i mean in theory they reserve the right to look at your eyesee if you're doing tourism but bottom line you can get on the plane now. there's some loophole. name naomi campbell and paris hillton went. we'll talk about the future of the e.u. and the impact on the currency markets next.

i care deeply about the gulf. i grew up in louisiana. i went to school here. i've been with bp ever since. today, i lead a team that sets our global safety standards. after the spill we made two commitments. to help the gulf recover and become a safer company. we've worked hard to honor both. bp has spent nearly 28 billion dollars so far to help the gulf economy and environment. and five years of research shows that the gulf is coming back faster than predicted. we've toughened safety standards too. including enhanced training... and 24/7 on shore monitoring of our wells drilling in the gulf. and everyone has the power to stop a job at any time if they consider it unsafe. what happened here five years ago changed us. i'm proud of the progress we've made both in the gulf and inside bp.

here's to breaking more glass ceilings in golf and everywhere else. kpmg. continuing our commitment to the next generation of women leaders.

new this morning greece's

finance minister said they will repay a loan due to the i.m.f. this you think -- what do you think greece staying or going? do you own greek debt? >> absolutely not. >> did you think about it? >> yes. but i think about a lot of things. >> the yields are incredible. f they if they pay. if. >> it's telling you the probably of default is significant. >> are they going to leave the euro? >> i think we're at the end of the road for greece. unlike on february 20th they have to come up with details and the details they're coming up with aren't rooking so great. >> there's hardly any details. they don't fill out the forms the way the i.m.f. likes. >> hardly any details and their ask is quite huge. they want a, you know, no austerity, and they want a

significant cut in the outstanding debt they have. >> and more money. >> right. >> if you don't greek debt do you own any other european sovrns? >> i don't own european sovereign bonds but i own european credit. >> what kind of yield are you getting considering with the interest rates in europe? >> most of the debt i have in europe is on the structured side and so we -- >> collateralized loan obligations. >> correct. >> and how does compare to the italian yield of 1.2%. >> several hundred basis points higher. >> i would hope. >> and you like european credits better than u.s. credit? >> yes and no. i think right now qe helped but it could come to an end if greece does exit. i think the probably for a greece exit in the months ahead is significantly higher. >> give me a date and why? >> it's hard to give a date.

the probably of default is 60 to 75% over the course of the year. >> default is one thing. >> right. >> you don't pay. you can print script. you can print iou, with you can go to capital control and not leave the euro. it sounds like you think they go hand in hand. >> i think so. i think the biggest thing that died in the discussions is trust. i don't there's a lot of trust between the eurozone and greece. >> what happens to greece -- eurozone if greece leaves. >> i think we have -- >> because that means everybody in europe the taxpayers are paying it rather than the banks. >>well i think that they talked about it and the holders of the debt is mostly european governments. i think there's a significant probably that other countries iny s inies in might consider leaving. >> do you think italy might? >> with 130% debt to gdp and no

significant change in growth prospects i'm sure they would consider it. >> not this year? >> timing is tough. but spain has a leftest party. if elections were held today they might win. and they like greece. >> we interviewed that guy. he makes greeces look sometimes moderate. it's pretty amazing. you have the ecb buying all the sovrns. they won't feel pressure if greece leaves. you have a buyer who makes sure. that's what pushes them out. >> well, you know, i think a catalyst like greece leaving creates a whole other set of situations such as potential runs on banks such as a questioning by bonk market investors and whether italy has the wherewithal to pay that. and the greek exit there's a myth that is shattered that is there to keep the countries inside the eurozone. >> maybe we'll find out.

thank you for coming in. >> thank you. coming up the man behind morning money. dan white joins us to talk about from everything from the job report to the race to the white house. as we head to the break, our are the futures. dow

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welcome back.

turning to politics now. gearing up for more republicans to throw their hat in for 2016. marco rubio expected to officially launch his campaign a week from today. joining us now is ben white chief correspondent for politico. good to see you. >> hey. how y r you? >> good thanks. we've got rand paul tomorrow. >> yeah. it's getting more crowded. and hillary any day can pop in there. rubio and rand paul in lanes in the party. he's moved away from some of his father's roots. he's still on the audit defense stuff. but he's a little less isolationist. i'm interested to see what rand paul has to say about isis and the iran deal. he's trying to be more hawkish than in the past.

>> maybe that's the wild card. about exactly the kind of republican that rand paul is going to present himself to be. >> yeah. no, it's interesting. he risks alienating the core base of the libertarian movement, the rand paul movement if he pulls away from their views on interventions abroad military spending spending in general to a broader electorate. the thing with rand paul he was very popular within a small group and did well in the early primary states. he could never make a run for the nomination. rand paul wants to bring in the libertarians' appeal to silicon valley with privacy stuff but not scare off the establishment so much with anti-war views or audit the fed views. >> when you look at the libertarian core of all the issues, i mean i'm not being facetious saying they care about pot, for example a lot of them when it comes to the libertarian base. privacy, et cetera et cetera. but defense i don't think ranks

nearly as high. >> no. it ranks low. the main views there are the united states should be involved as little as possible in foreign entanglements. we should not be spending a lot of money on defense. and that's a difficult thing at any time in a republican primary. particularly now when you have so many hot spots around the world. you talked about cuba earlier, china. there's lots of issues on the global stage that a republican nominee will have to deal with. that's just not the forte of the strand of republicanism. >> switching to the president. on thursday he told a gathering in louisville kentucky, our economy has been growing. we've got momentum. then came the disappointing jobs report. does he have a problem with that message? >> he does. the tail end of that quote, though, is he said there's a chance that we could stall out here. he realizes that there are a lot of headwinds for the u.s. economy right now. the strong dollar has done some damage. weak wage growth.

then we get this terrible jobs number. there's different takes on that. some of it is the winter and q2 will look be rt. this happens to obama every year hep wants to tout a strengthening economy by associating himself with that and then it doesn't happen. we get another slowdown and poor numbers. that's happening now. i think for a guy around 50% wanting to get higher that's not going to happen until we see the wages pick up until we see job growth consistently 200,000, 300,000. i think he's stuck here and moved on to iran to jack up approval rating. >> what does it mean for hillary? >> it's difficult for her to succeed a democratic incumbent if we get to early 2016 and things don't pick up and we don't see a few quarters of stronger growth and this long hope for wage growth doesn't happen. it makes it much more difficult to succeed a democratic incumbent and puts pressure on her to come up with a set of economic proposals to say obama economics wasn't good enough.

this is what i'll give you. then of course the fed wild card. if the fed moves at some point this year into the fall to tweak up interest rates and that slows things further that makes it easy for a republican candidate to say the economy is slowing, we need a new set of policies on taxation regulation a whole bunch of stuff. >> ben, good to talk to you this morning. >> always a pleasure. >> politico's ben white. coming up investors return from a long haul of a weekend. friday's much weeker job reports. we're going to talk to david darst. that's when "squawk box" comes right back.

markets getting a chance to react to the march job numbers that came in way below expectations. a trip inside the numbers ahead. president obama speaking on iran. >> this is our best bet to make sure iran doesn't get a nuclear weapon. >> michael hayden here to tell us why he thinks the deal is flawed. and a record-breaking weekend at the box office for "fast & furious 7." a closer look at the movie that just logged the best april debut ever. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ live from the most powerful city in the world, new york, this is "squawk box."

>> welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. i'm joe kernen along with michelle caruso-cabrera and scott wapner. andrew and becky are off today. the latest movie in that universal franchise "fast and furious" destroyed records. the seventh movie in the series brought in $143.6 million in its north american debut. that's the best-ever april premiere. the ninth best opening totally in history. globally the movie brought in $240 million so far for universal which is owned by of course by cnbc's parent company comcast. a lot of it you have to have a sense of disbelief for some of the stubtnts done here. there are things like the laws of physics don't apply. people are falling and they can climb up as they're falling and stuff. but no matter. the movie did feature paul

walker in one of his final roles. the 40-year-old actor died in a car crash in 2013, as you know. his work on the film was completed using stand-ins and digital technology. and we highlighted the social networking aspects of how this film was introduced about two or three weeks ago, all of us did. becky and andrew were both here. and we looked at three of the stars in the top ten for social reach. and we looked at how many -- i don't know. smus. thank you. it's not the college. but these are social media universe or something and they have millions. and you add them all together and it's like 20 million. and as a result you look at the people that are likely to see it in a certain age group. there was 90% awareness when this movie was coming that it was coming who was in it. the rock is big time.

jason stathom. vin diesel is huge in that area. we said 140 was going to get done in prilss. and they knew it. >> because of the reach on social media. who needs to advertise on tv anymore. >> don't discount social need ya. i wish it weren't so because i don't really like it, but you need to play. you instagram yet, wapner? >> i do. >> i don't. do you? >> no. do you facebook? >> no. >> have you tried periscope? it's fun. i love it. >> it's fun. you don't have instagram? >> i meerkat. is there such a thing as snorkeling? no. i don't periscope. why are you looking at me like that? your mind goes right there,

doesn't it? >> i don't know what you're talking about. >> your mind just stays there. >> that's right. it never leaves there. what's meerkat. >> oh. this is a holly hunter moment for you. >> yes. >> competing app a does the same thing. >> does what? >> i'm going to get on my phone and we'll periscope at some point during the show. go ahead. >> thanks. among the other stories we're watching this hour, greece finance minister of about a half billion dollars due this week. imf managing director met in washington yesterday. leaders spoke out on the deal with iran. benjamin netanyahu urging the u.s. to seek a better deal to curb iran's nuclear program. they press lawmakers not to give iran a free path to the bomb. president obama making his case for the agreement to tom friedman from "the new york times." he reiterated his support for israel and said the deal is the

best hope to prevent iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. we talked to former cia director michael hayden in a few minutes. oil prices rising sharply this morning. crude sales hiking for a second month pointing to better demand in that region. march jobs number coming in well short of expectations. if you tuned in friday morning, we were here and it was a bad number. u.s. equity futures trading lower. this is the holdover you see here. the dow would open lower by more than 120 points. the nasdaq lower by 30. and the s&p 500 down by 13. steve leisman joins us now. over the weekend i'm going to steal a bit of thunder, the disappointing jobs report and other weak data the past several weeks, jpmorgan slashing the forecast to 0.6% from 1.5% saying, quote, the unexpectedly

soft march labor report raises obvious concerns of growth momentum. still, jpmorgan economists continue to maintain the forecast for the current quarter. the government reporting on friday just 126,000 jobs created in march. well below the forecast of nearly 250,000 jobs. and the reaction of economists ranges from those who see it as an inevitable blip in an unprecedented strength of strong numbers. many blaming the weather for that. as for the fed, reaction also mixed. here's a smattering of the commentary i was reading. pnc actually moving their call for the first rate hike to september from july. goldman saying the risk of their september rate hike is now later because of this report. and everybody chill out. there's two more jobs reports between now and june and those could certainly turn around

expecting north of 200,000 jobs. let's take a quick look at what happened to bonds. you see there, six bips down on the one year. you had a similar reaction in the fed funds. guys, the december 2015 fed funds contract now trading at count 'em, 34 basis points. which means the gap between what the fed is forecasting and what the market is forecasting which it closed is now widening again. so the fed is going to have to change their view or the market's going to have to come up so there's a game to be played here for investors. >> you know where i'm guessing. >> what will you guess not at all? >> yeah. >> not this year. >> yeah. >> i think this data turns around. i am not surprised after 126 after 12 straight months of 200-plus. we've got to work through the a dollar and low oil prices. i think we'll have a pretty strong march and june.

you're forecasting them to go in june? >> no. i'm telling you if they don't go in june they're going to hear it from me. >> you're going to write them a letter? >> no. i'm going to ream them on tv. they don't have the -- we realize they use the words stones. and stones i think we can stay. >> those kind. >> now we used it three times. >> i'm thinking of stones in all sorts of matters expect for that one. >> they better have the stones to raise rates. >> i get it. >> you are on national television, not just television. >> international. >> that's right. >> yes. they got to go into it. i don't think they're data dependent. they've got to go to a quarter. come on. data? 5.5%. go to a quarter. just show that we do charge money when we give it to someone. you don't get zero back or pay someone to hold it. can't they do that? >> they can do that. they can do that. >> don't you think they will in

june? >> no. i don't think they're going to in june. am i going to hear from you now? >> yes. >> you're going to write me a letter? >> did this jobs report all but take june off the table? >> no. i don't think so. >> i know what you said. i know exactly what you said. >> it's where you're sitting. it's the person's chair. >> are you the one making the move on the rates? >> i'm just saying if they don't, they've got serious mental problems. >> well they're going to have to deal with you because i don't think they're going no june. that's what i'm saying. >> all right. can we -- >> are you with me or against me? >> you just heard. >> you guys want to take it outside? >> bruce is kind of a smart guy. for more reaction -- it's all this free money, why not stay here? never could be anything wrong with this. for more reaction to the jobs report we're joined by bruce

casman. and our guest host david darst. independent consultant but was also at morgan stanley for a long time. we're going to talk a lot. you always come so well prepared. and i want to talk to you. i want to get your reasons for doing things. bruce, they won't go in june. i know you. they won't go in june. stay easy forever, right? >> i don't think stay easy forever. what's going to happen is the economy is going to rebound. i think there are questions about how much it rebounds. but i think the idea that the economy is going to do better in the second quarter is pretty clear on a number of fronts. i think we have a tightening labor market. i think we have signed that wages are turning. i think the fed is holding back here because there's just more uncertainty and concern about the dollar. more questions about where growth is. that's something they really don't want to do. so they're going to hold off here a little bit. if we're looking at an economy

that is going to gather steam, labor markets that continue to tighten. the fed's going to come back here and have to start to tighten. >> at 1.05 on the euro, i could see it. now we're back to 1.10. europe, we're going to hear five really compelling reasons why david darst thinks you should invest in europe. i mean can't we do anything looking in the -- looking down the road instead of the rearview mirror. can't we realize that europe is going to do better? we don't need to worry about the dollar being too strong. we can go to a quarter point at 5.5% unemployment. can't we do it? it's 5.5% unemployment. don't people look at things where things are historically are to say we're not seeing the forest through the trees here? >> i think wh enthe feds start the tightening having been on zero so long they want to be 150% sure to move. >> oh, god. >> i think that's an appropriate thing recognizing that once they get going they can pick up the pace. the decision of whether you

start in june or september to me is not the big call. the decision is how much do you adjust. >> we could do a quarter and stay there. you don't have to go to terminal price. we decided that's no longer real terminal pricing, right? we don't zart at a quarter and go to 300 basis points. >> no. i want to press bruce on this question. on your question. i'm not sure what the value is but they could do just a quarter and stop. i'm not sure what the value is either way, but you could make the point that in 5.5% unemployment, 2.5% growth if that's really around potential, that you shouldn't be right at zero. and maybe there's some value in providing a little bit of upside on the savings rate. >> well i think the uncertainties about how the economy and how the market handles a signal from the fed that it's starting to raise rates in an environment where the fed has traditionally begun

a tightening cycle, it's just a chunk. i think those are big issues for whether or not the economy is ready. whether or not the fed should take that step. and i don't think the fed will take that step until it's ready to do somewhere between 100 to 200 basis points of tightening. the question of one they should do it i think is relatively uncertain now in a world where you're uncertain. i think those questions will get answered over the next three months in a way that bring the feds in here. i don't think they'll be answered quick in you have. >> the taper tantrum, was that bernanke bernanke? >> it was bernanke. but he did it a couple of mornts later. >> wow. oh, my god. he's crazy, nuts insane. he stopped buying $80 billion worth of bonds. yeah. he's nuts. he's liable to do anything at any time. 6% unemployment and they stop buying 80 billion.

it was unprecedented. >> here's the problem. you have models that show you interest rates should be negative. okay? that zero is not enough. that, in fact the right rate for the economy is one that has a whole number but a minus sign in front of it. that's what qe is. >> we argued about inflation last week. i think everybody thinks it's gone forever. >> as long as you're worried about -- as much as you're worried about it we are cool with inflation. >> i haven't been worried about it all along. now that every single hawk has been -- >> no inflation, inflation. right. >> exactly. >> i feel like we are so far from having an inflation problem. >> that's the problem. >> that's not a problem. it's reality. it's what the data says. >> mcdonald's and walmart and companies -- >> a little tiny raise for low income workers -- >> this is the way it starts. the fed should anticipate too. >> right. but how much? >> they should be

anticipating -- eventually you don't stay in crisis mode after a crisis. >> 5 trillion love corporate bonds have negative interest rates already. you know this. we're in very irrational time. we've moved to quantum mechanics. things don't work the way they should. this idea of whether we move in june or september is maybe how fast the pace -- bruce's key point, pace. morgan stanley's economist thinks it's going to be next year. >> 2017. >> march of 2016. but they'll raise eight times next year. and that could upset the market. >> so they'll be behind the curve. >> behind the curve. >> they should get ahead of the curve. anyway, so what do -- >> that's my job. so you get mad at me. >> not june but at some point

in 2015. >> we have them starting in september. again, i think the second quarter is key here. it's probably not going to come along quickly enough to bring june back on the table, but we're looking to see the economy get back to 3%. we're looking for things to turn pretty broadly here and we're looking to see both labor markets tighten and some wages to show up. >> i think both parts of the dual mandate have been satisfied now in this. you're low enough on unemployment because we're almost at full. and we don't -- and we're probably at 2% inflation even though you don't believe it. >> that's a great argument. that 1.3% is close enough as the growth climbs to 2%. you can't really be all that precise. >> okay. so you're coming back. bruce, thank you. much more -- you just -- anyway. much more from david darst still to come. coming up world powers striking a framework agreement to limit iran's nuclear

capability. but israel and the u.s. congress not convinced. former cia director michael hayden joins us next. then the cfc of ubs will join us to talk currencies. also the ceo of retailer nicole miller will be here. stick around.

welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. let's look at the futures again.

124. just looking at a note i just got which i agree with that it's not about the fed now. bad news is bad news. and that was a bad news on friday. they've done everything they can do. can't get out of the muck at 2%. and they're out of bullets at this point. we've got to do it eventually. here's what's happening this morning. ventas is buying privately held chain arden medical services for $1.8 billion in cash. ventas also spinning off their nursing portfolios. this was a fascinating company that you guys probably don't follow that closely. but it's a cincinnati-based company that was roto rooter essentially. they owned part of a hospice

entity that became larger and larger as a part of that. they ended up changing the name and becoming you know a dedicated health care company. mostly hospice. you don't think roto rooter and hospice in any way. >> not generally. okay. moving on. president obama speaking to tom friedman of "the new york times" about the nuclear agreement with iran. here was his message to the israelis. >> what i would say to the israeli people is however, that there is no formula, there is no option to prevent iran from getting a nuclear weapon that will be more effective than the the diplomatic initiative and framework we put forward. and that's demonstrable. >> joining us now michael hayden he's the former director of the cia. good to have you here sir.

>> good morning, michelle. >> you just heard president obama. he says this is the best path to prevent iran from having a nuclear bomb. do you agree? >> it is potentially a good path michelle. but it has to be done well. i understand the president's broad concept here that we can perhaps bring iran more further, more integrated into the community of nations. that's a high-risk task in itself. but in addition to that you've got the subtask of actually doing that process well. and so far i think the jury is out. michelle, i think it's really important to point out we don't yet have a deal. i mean the iranians are actually saying those four pages of single spaced talking points they haven't quite agreed to all that yet. even if they have there's a lot of fine print that has to be yet agreed before we can actually say we've got a decent enough deal. >> yeah. it's very clear. those talking points. and specifically the president

and secretary of state john kerry said the lifting of the sanctions would be gradual. but the minister said it's supposed to be all at once. also the inspection process, how that's going to work. i'm assuming you're talking about whether or not iran is going to cheat and whether or not we're going to be able to figure that out. >> that's exactly right. there are at least three key issues. you've hit two of the three. one is the sanctions, how do they get lifted what is the conditionality. and what are the other sanctions for the other aspects of iranian behavior for which the international community has sanctioned them. can they even exist when you pull that sanction basket out? the second has to do with inspections. who gets to say no? and right now the president told tom friedman some sort of international dispute resolution body decides if the iaea can go to military sites. and here's the bottom line. the iaea is never going to

military sites. >> is it because iran is not letting them in? >> they won't. they never have. i have no confidence they ever will. and finally there's something called pmds. the previous military dimensions of the iranian nuclear program. look. in '07 when we said they had stopped building a weapon we said with high confidence they had been building a weapon at least through 2003. the irans have never come clean on that. and frankly this agreement will not make them come clean either. so there are a lot of problematic elements still left here. >> i don't know if you can do this, but go out ten years. in what kind of moment is this? is this a nixon in china moment or jimmy carter moment? >> i don't think it's either or at least we can't prove it's either right now. the nixon and china thing is a china that really had some

interests that they defined as being coincident with our own. i don't think the iranians have made that definition yet. so what we've got is a narrowly defined nuclear deal. and we've not yet put it into the good enough box in my view. >> you have a -- switching gears here you have an op-ed in "the washington post" recently over the weekend where you were arguing that historically there's been technological protectionism for the united states to give the u.s. a decided military advantage and defense advantage. and then at times that ends up holding back the commercial industry itself. so, for example, with the ability to track data et cetera, the u.s. has allowed those sales to happen. tell me what your point is here when it comes to technological protectionism as you call it. >> it has to do with protectionism in terms of trying to preserve some sort of

military security or espionage advantage for the united states. and i get that. sometimes that's very important. and sometimes i would vote yes. but it's not an automatic yes. michelle sometimes that kind of protectionism punishes american industry makes american industry less capable. and therefore what we end up is relying on an industrial base that is not nearly as good as it would otherwise be and is not nearly as good as we need it to be. and so it's not automatic that you vote against the ability of american companies to actually -- >> call me a cynical journalist. you're working in private industry now. do some of those industries actually pay your salary? is that one of the reasons you take that position? >> no look. this is my position. michelle, in 2000 the argument of the day was something called mtaf which is a measure of capacity.

as director of the nsa we limited what american companies could export. and as director i turned that over. >> are you lobbying on behalf of these companies? >> no. this is my view. and i have a track record this view has been consistent for a decade. >> i didn't mean to be confrontational, i just wanted to get it out there. >> sure. >> good to have you. appreciate it. >> thanks. if you're losing loose change in the bins at airport security, you're not alone. you won't believe how much the tsa collects in unclaimed change. that story is next. and then ceo of nicole miller will be here to talk consumer friends and income inequality.

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the word apple. they have a patent on apple? japan's sharp reportedly -- sharp company reportedly may spin off its panel business and receive funding from a government backed fund. and party goods retailer party city filing to raise nearly $428 million in an ipo. the offering expected to price between $15 and $17 a share. stock is expected to list on the new york stock exchange. and the surprise revenue stream for the tsa, travelers left more than $628,000 in coins and currency in the bins at airport check points in 2013. according to federal law, tsa gets to keep that money provided they use it to improve aviation security. the agency is still counting unclaimed money from 2014. you can read more on the story at cnbc.com. all right. coming up we'll talk banking and global currency shifts with

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welcome back to "squawk box." europe continues to struggle to emerge from crisis this morning. we're joining bid one of the members of cnbc's cfo council to talk about the european banking system. tom naratil of ubs. really long walk for you. about two blocks or so. >> yeah. right across the street. >> nice to have you in the hood. let's talk about your view of the world right now. we were having this long discussion about when we think the fed will actually move versus when we think they should. you want to answer when you think they will and then when you think they should? >> september, probably june. >> you think they should move in june? that's joe's view as well. >> that's big for a guy at an investment bank to say that. everybody is involved at the party in that business. and people duly pointed out to me you keep asking guys at

goldman and banks when the fed should raise and you're surprised when they say not for a long time. >> right. because we're conditioned. but ceos are lining up to say they shouldn't raise. >> why do you think they should go in june? >> one of those things just starting to move away from where it's lower interest rates here or negative rates. you're breaking the chain of rewarding thrift for savers. and that could be disstabilizing. >> you have this view as firm. you think your customers, your clients are on board with that view? what sort of things are they expressing to you? >> well one of the things they're concerned about is monetary policy. you know fed and the ecb moving in potentially different directions at the same time. and, you know at the same time the positive experience out of the u.s. of qe and zero interest rate policy negative interest

rate policy. still something that's an experiment. and not necessarily something we know the outcome will be. >> i thought you were going to say they were frustrated by having to buy junk and dare i say crap to get a minimal yield. >> what we've seen is we don't see those extensions. our clients have been negative over the past couple of years. the most pronounced is out of fixed income and then the balances are rolling into cash slightly into equities. and turning clients into alternatives. >> what about the negative interest rates in switzerland? what's the reaction been to the clients and to the bank of these hugely deeply negative interest rates? >> yeah so what you see in terms of market reaction certainly there's a lot of volatility on the daily announcement. i remember talking to our treasury team. it was quite frightening in

terms of the volatility you saw. as you move past that interestingly what you've seen is that deposit rates for commercial clients have clearly been dropped to negative rates. about negative 75 basis points per year. on the retail side you've seen things roughly around zero because there's a value to deposits that banks need to consider which is what's the value that funding base. so bizarrely what you've seen is asset prices beginning to move up. meaning loans on the balance sheets starting to widen. so you're seeing a breakdown in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. >> as we discuss monetary policy the fed versus the ecb and you bring up both that causes debate as to where the best place to be is right now. you want to be more exposed to u.s. or europe or vice versa.

>> certainly feels good despite a few bits of data that seem softer. a recovery is two steps forward and one back. when we look at europe we are beginning to selectively begin to add to the exposures that we have in europe. >> because people certainly think there's more value there maybe more fraught with risk. but there's sort of a playbook of fed or central bank action followed by market reaction has been seen in terms of what our markets have done over the last five years. >> the key in europe will be patience. just like you needed patience for the u.s. going back about five or six years ago. you'll need patience in europe as well. >> a rational move by the swiss national bank to suddenly without consultation or a warning delink the peg with the euro. what was your reaction personally and as a bank to this suddenness of all institutions the swiss national bank a model

probity. >> one of the keys to being successful to surprise the market based on that there was an a-plus. >> a few days before they said they were going to stick with -- you must have been mad. >> the most frustrating thing to me personally was i lost a bet to a friend of mine. so it cost me 10% more at the end of the afternoon. >> they didn't tell you so you were hurt they didn't tell the cfo of ubs. >> it's appropriate for them not to tell anyone. >> i'm glad they did that too. how do you have the same currency as you know greece and switzerland basically both with -- and people are going to say they don't have the same. okay. you have the euro obviously and the swiss franc was tied to the euro. the drachma is now the euro. how does that make sense?

>> i think the smb in terms of moving away certainly pleased a number of people in the populous. >> good to have you, tom. >> thank you. coming up, the cofounder of retailer nicole miller will join us on set. as we head to break, take a look at what he said. >> we we've got a country that the poverty level is wealth in 99% in the rest of the world. money is all over the place and the guy that's making $35,000 a year. why don't you try that out in india or some countries we can't even name.

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it says here the global currency wars are waging on. in many brands like -- >> you wage war, right? >> yeah. and cartier are rising prices in parts of the world. let's hear from another top tier brand name. we have with us on set bud

konheim. founder and ceo of nicole miller which has a better name than bud konheim. if you're going to do high-end stuff. >> there was a reason we didn't call it bud konheim. >> you didn't feel bad about it? >> no. when nicole's mother gave birth to nicole her thought was what's a good brand name for little girl. so she called her nicole. >> how is business in general in this bifurcated world. >> dent use bifurcated i don't know what the hell that means. >> all right. have you done well -- >> i've been in business a long time. right. in every upturn downturn, whatever you call it there's always some guy who's really doing well. naen every upturn there's always some guy doing badly. so to do a cnbc "squawk box" show and talk a sweeping brush stroke over the whole thing doesn't mean anything to the individual guys that are doing

it. and also this show is about stock and stuff like that. so you go and pick your stock. you can't do a whole sweeping thing and expect to make out. so let's talk about what you want to talk about. >> how would you say business is right now for you. >> if i was apple, i would say it's great. starbucks which is the most overpriced cup of coffee in the world is great. dunkin' donuts is cheaper. nicole miller we're doing kind of well. it's not phenomenal. and to your point with the big audience out there, it's not that great. it's not the enthusiasm the mood is not great. >> why not? >> well all the factors that go into your makeup. all of the political stuff going on. everybody getting killed. all that business. there's a whole -- years and years and years of kind of no passion, no enthusiasm.

and i don't want to make this a political show but i don't want to get into it. but -- >> you have a habit of doing that. just keep going. >> there's no enthusiasm. do you know when i felt it first? the lack of enthusiasm? when netanyahu spoke with congress i'm not interested, not really involved in the israeli thing but i watched this speech because everybody was watching the speech. and he got on with this incredible passion about the shared values we have about america. america this and america that. and we do this together we do that. and this is what we've done for the world. i said for the first time i started getting a thrill about listening to the star spangled banner at a ball game again. i use ared to get thrilled about the marine corps him. six years i haven't gotten turned on and neither has the customer. the customer doesn't trust politics, don't trust anything.

so there's the atmosphere. how do you expect to have good business with everybody believing it's higher nothing is going on the corporate stuff they make a claim. you don't believe what they say anyhow. so now you're expected to go out and buy into the brand. >> we had people saying it more clearly than you said it. >> sorry. >> no. that people that talk you don't want to be outspoken anymore are watching him speak about the united states was the way they wished the president would speak about the united states. >> exactly. >> they weren't quite as -- >> wasn't about what he said. it was about the enthusiasm. >> i don't know. there are a lot of one group pitted against another. >> that's another thing. the hate level in the country is way up. >> right. >> and i always -- i grew up at a dinner table disagreeing but

not being disagreeable. you can't be disagreeable. that's out the window now. everybody can't say something in opposition to someone else they have to be disagreeable and nasty and drag up stuff irrelevant to the discussion and throw personal stuff to make points. >> and is this directly connected to retail sales? >> absolutely. what do we sell? we sell feeling good. that's all we sell. we're not providing water or air or anything like that. >> that would explain this whole minimalist movement out there where people are trying to reduce the amount of clothing in their closet to 50 items. have you seen all this stuff? >> we've done it. my wife and i have done it. we reduced -- we just built a new house. two bedrooms. the kids say how will we sell that? we'll be dead, we don't worry about that. so yeah. maybe minimalist is part of the

thing. if you look around let's get back to your subject. trying to run a show here and get commercials. luxury. so i'll go out and get myself a luxury item a couple of weeks ago that was 50 bucks. less than 50 bucks. harry's raisezor. have you heard of it? >> yeah. had him on the show. >> do you shave? your legs. you don't have to tell me. i didn't see your legs through the table. >> i do not shave my legs. >> you don't? >> haven't in awhile. >> if you do tell me how you like it. anyhow, it's wonderful. i've been shaving with gillette since -- >> your legs? >> yeah. it's luxury. but "fast" not exit's not expensive. >> it's expensive for a razor.

>> not really. >> do you call the consumer she? a lot of guys in business call the consumer she. how flush is she right now if she were in a better mood? >> i've been doing this a long time. recession, depression hurricanes, tornado, all that kind of stuff. in america there's money out there to buy anything. look at apple. not overpriced but the high end of everything. they've got a line out the door. starbucks, lines outside the door. harry's razor, not the most expensive in the world. but on and on if you're watching the stock market i don't know what the stock is but the merger what's that all about? it's what you call high end. and the latest thing is this far fetch. you watching that? boutiques. they put a boutique over a billion now. and i think i don't know if they're public or not, doesn't matter to me. what matters to me is the retail model that we've grown up with

120 years. it's broken. it's broken but it hasn't really fallen apart. but it's falling apart. and the whole catalyst of the internet and everybody's finding a way to adjust their life and culture and what you talk about. they're all doing it through the internet and kind of everybody's paying attention. everybody's using as usual the jargon that goes with the internet. social media, networking. nobody really understands it except some of these guys taking advantage of it. >> all right. thank you. we've got a pretty good idea of what's going. nicole miller makes nice ties. >> we licensed it out now. the ties were all sense of humor. now we're going back to it. >> thank you. >> thank you. >> great to see you. coming up a setback for u.s. attorney preet bahara. that's next.

xçó0 setback for preet bahara. he had a request rejected to reconsider an insider trader ruling. kate kelly joins us with more. >> thanks so much. a federal appeals court on monday opted not to rehear a trader case that overturned the convictions of two key defendants. almost certainly leaving them and third defendants as free men. the ruling came as something sof a surprise to the legal

community where many had expected to see new york's second circuit to hear arguments. at least with the original three judge panel that heard it if not with the entire court. it's a powerful statement because it means that not only has preet bharara seen more than more of these 80 insider trading convictions since 2009 lost. but federal judges are saying he basically brought some of these under the wrong pretenses. making it tough tore bring new cases. bahara's office is currently pursuing or to let the appeals court decision stand. which apparently he's not pursuing. before the attorney can request, it must approve the office to do so. a blessing they're work on

getting. unclear what the timetable is. they'd like to pursue that if they could. >> daring him to bring it to the supreme court. they want him to bring it to the supreme court. >> and justice scalia has indicated there's a lack of clarity here and there needs to be a better defined insider trading code. you also heard of that with mark cuban, for example. there are bills circulating that would better codify insider trading. it's sort of the collection of prior cases and other laws. but there's not a clearly defined insider trading law. and maybe we need one. >> maybe we don't need any. >> well that's another story. >> thank you kate. >> thank you. coming up reaction to the lackluster jobs report. the chief economist from barclays and top strategist from wells fargo joins us next.

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getting down do what looks like is going to be a tough opening to the market since friday's brutal jobs number. where should you put your money in the second quarter? stick around that find out. plus could a deal with iran change the world's economic landscape? the president's calling it a once in a lifetime opportunity. the critics say not in our

lifetime. a closer look at the agreement and the ripple effects coming up. plus is domino's a tech company that makes pizzas? patrick doyle here to explain their strategy for both consumers and investors. get the door. "squawk box" begins right now. live from the most powerful city many the world, new york, this is "squawk box." >> welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are first in business worldwide. i am joe kernen along with michelle caruso-cabrera and scott wapner. becky and andrew obviously both off today. futures this morning indicated sharply lower after trading not being able to react on friday to the weak employment numbers that we saw for march. you can see down about 130 on the dow jones. we're right around flatlining on most of these averages i guess, except for the nastdaq.

down about 32 points. with the s&p indicated down about 15. and don't look now. i know it seems like the market has not been above where it was when apple was added to the dow, but purely coincidence at this time. it doesn't mean it's going to stay here does it wapner? >> absolutely not, joe. >> tough to double from there. that's just you know thank you, dow jones for adding apple. >> curse of the dow. >> thanks. >> appreciate it. >> yeah. at least things are symmetrical. at least we get a heads up to what might portend. >> it's happened before. >> it happens. next thing you know -- >> cisco. >> microsoft. intel. >> right. it's like they want to keep a lid on the dow or something. >> 18,000 is enough. >> you're right. >> who needs that. here are this morning's

headlines. while investors digest friday's job report another is on the agenda. me measure of the u.s. services sector. expected to show lightly slower growth than a month ago. greece's finance minister varoufakis says they will meet all to the creditors. ahead of a loan payment to the imf later on this week. class action suit against google over its android operating system has been withdrawn. the plaintiffs claimed smartphone buyers were harmed because google forced to make google applications the default options. all right. more labor pain in the oil patch. the mining industry shed 11,000 jobs in march. that bring this sector's total loss up to 30,000. now the ripple effects are starting to show up in other part os they have labor markets as well. good morning morgan. >> good morning, scott.

that's right. so the ripple effects from lower oil prices are certainly weighing on the market. the mining industry shed 30,000 jobs in the first quarter. and just to put that in perspective, it added 41,000 jobs in 2014. that means 3/4 of last year's gains have already been erased. now, as rig counts have plunged, we've seen data follow suit with the most layoffs coming from oil field services coming from halliburton, baker hughes and economists expect the blood letting to slow down by summer. but the effects are now weighing on other industries. so take a look at manufacturing. that's going to be an area to focus on moving forward while the number of layoff announcements within the energy sector is starting to slow down they're picking up amongst industrial goods. now, that's according to challenger gray and christmas. that also shed a seasonally adjusted jobs last month according to the labor department with categories like

machinery suffering the biggest losses. that's going to continue. expect that to continue as companies including u.s. steel service notices to thousands of employees. as we've seen oil prices bring contraction into oil production. these companies are now going to be feeling the pain as well. guys, back over to you. >> thank you so much. the futures pointing to a lower open after friday's jobs report. this is of course the first time we get a chance to react too it. investors worry now about a growing pile of weak data. joining us now, wells fargo private investment. barclays chief economist and our guest host is david darst. great to have you here. michael, you saw the jobs report on friday and your reaction was? >> well certainly we said it laid an egg. it was a weak number. much worse than everybody expected. i think if we take a step back we were looking for job growth to slow anyway. the economy was running very solid at the end of last year.

>> not that much though. right? >> 317,000 was the three-month average pay setting into year round. and that's not sustainable. we felt it would come down to the 2 to 2.25 range. but march was softer than expected. >> you think we're going to get a snap back? >> i think something in the 200,000 a month range is acceptable. i don't think the trend has shifted towards permit innocently lower growth. >> did the jobs report force you to rethink your targets for the market where you think we're going to be? >> no. actually, i think i would fade the march number quite frankly. one report doesn't make a trend, obviously. if you look at the labor market the unemployment rate has come down .4% in the last six months. so the labor market is still fundamentally strong. we still think it gives the fed the ammunition it needs. and the other interesting thing is if you look at core inflation, still running at 1.6, 1.7, it's a stone's throw from the fed's target.

when you look at the dual mandate, you're talking inflation close to where it needs to be and jobs certainly where it needs to be. >> michael and darryl five things have led to a slow first quarter. number one, the west coast port situation, number two, the weather. the other three i'd love your thoughts on. oil being down the dollar being up and finally the consumer saving this savings from gas being lower rather than spending it. savings rates gone from 5 to 5.5 to 5.8% of disposal income. how will it play out the rest of the year? >> you don't spend all of it up front. you do save a little. you elongate the shock, if you will. so consumption grew 4.4% in the fourth quarter. we do think it's weather affected this quarter. we think growth has been shaved by about a full percentage point off of weather. so i would say the consumer is behaving normally in this scenario. the dollar story and energy

story we think will be with us throughout the course of the year and will keep headline rates of gdp growth more modest in the 2.5% range. i agree that the consumer's behavior in a reasonable fashion, but look for the dollar and energy to be slight drags as we go through the rest of the year. >> if that in fact is the case, does that mean the stock market has some sort of bigger correction than we've seen to date? >> i think the returns of the stock market's got slow a little bit. and david's right. we would expect oil and the dollar to kind of be in a trading range. not be the headwind it was. but remember when you come into q1 and q2 with flat to negative earnings growth we're back in this conversation we were in a couple years ago. yooer not at 11 and 12 times earnings like in 2012. we're at 16 going on 17 times earnings. so if you don't get that earnings growth there is limited on the upside. but the fundamentals don't look

like they've rolled over yet. i would caution people on the february and march jobs data to not try and make that a trend. i think we will see a strength in q2. >> it's not like every piece of economic data up until the jobs report was great. right? >> so pmis were weak. other reports were squirrely as well. that doesn't have you at all concerned? we're not talking about a string of great reports with one outlier of a bad jobs report. >> yes. overall, q1 data was soft. but to david's good point on the consumer, the consumer confidence came in at the second highest of this recovery. borrowing costs are down. bank lending is up. the stronger dollar will be a tail wind for the consumer. so all the ingredients are there for a second quarter and even second half. >> think the reversal was important. 17 million in auto sales in march after three months of declines suggests that's a clear weather effect in my view.

personal spending in march should show a solid rebound. >> so the fed moves in? >> september. >> guys thanks. >> thank you. coming up a special delivery to the "squawk" set but can domino's deliver for investors? we speak to the company's ceo next. barbara just bought a bike. she wrote a tweet about it. you can't learn much from that. but take data from millions of tweets combine that with your company's supply chain and sales data. apply ibm analytics and expertise, and all of a sudden, you can learn which bikes to build what to make them from, where to sell them. because barbara and the world just told you how to build a better bike. there's a new way to work and it's made with ibm.

welcome back to "squawk box." the futures now are suggesting a sharply negative open after friday's job report. right now dow lower by 120 points. nasdaq lower by more than 30. >> so corporate news this morning, sources telling me federal law enforcement agencies recently contacted several top herba herbalife members. in separate story, they have also received inquiries about irregular trading in its stock. and one more line herbalife's shareholder telling us last night he has no

intention of eliminating his position in the company or making any major changes. there had been some speculation he might be looking to change his position after he changed his filing status with the s.e.c. you can see shares off nearly 6%. one way to view domino's, it's a tech company selling pizza. reshaping on all major platforms. phone, web tv and voice. it's part of what domino's calls in its words, the anywhere program. stock up 30% in the past year. joining us now is domino's ceo and president. you brought us some stuff, we're going to definitely check that out very closely. in a second. your ears may have been ringing. we talked about domino's a few times because we kick back and forth mcdonald in exactly the way they should approach. and off camera i called it

existential moment. in corporate history, which you presided over at domino's a couple years ago, but i now hear is in textbooks for -- that's where the expression comes from. a textbook case of how to handle something. you know what i mean? because you did not decide i'm going to make a kale pizza with a free range crust or something. you stuck with pizza. >> yeah we did. >> if you want pizza, you know what you're getting. you don't need some politically correct non-gmo pizza. you went to your roots. >> people still buy more pepperoni more than anything else. >> that's what i'm going to have. it's my prerogative to have it. i'll deal with it 50 years from now if i have to. what did you -- you looked at the whole company from top to bottom. how many years ago was that? >> five six years ago. >> the advertising campaigns. >> exactly. >> mea culpa's involved.

>> that's right. people didn't love the pizza. we had to get that right. and then we came out and we decided there was a nice midwestern straightforward way to communicate this to look in the camera and say we're sorry. we get it. you didn't like the pizza and we're going to fix it. we showed people talking about how much they didn't like it before. and we were double digit up that quarter. >> what would you tell mcdonald's right now? do you have any advice on how to re-examine the company? >> mcdonald's is -- they've got an amazing brand. it's huge. they've got a lot to work with. i think they've got to get the food right first. >> fresh and fast. >> if they get the food right, it's going to work. >> how's your mobile strategy working out? >> unbelievable. half is mobile. mobile has grown faster than online. we actually just launched on pebble and android washes. we launched last week on samsung so you can now order on your television. >> are you going to be on the

apple watch? >> we're looking at that. we want to be anywhere. we want to be within arm's reach. we want people to be able to pick up any device anywhere. we had dom that you could do it with your voice. order off technology with your voice. so we want to make it easy for people to order domino's. then we'll bring it to you. >> that is something other forward-thinking companies are doing. panera spending all kinds of money on ways of ordering the same stuff just keep making it the same stuff as good as you can, as fresh as you can. >> make it easier and faster. >> but move into the 21s century. >> that's right. >> so when i order domino's on my cell phone, is that a mobile order? >> not if you're picking up -- >> yeah. that's as advanced -- >> i was talking about the app. >> hold on. because i've got bluetooth turned on and doing it through my radio in my car.

does that count? >> you order domino's through your radio? >> the phone is hooked up to -- >> oh. i get it. >> we've got a deal with ford's sync program. >> how big is the ncaa going to be for you? >> it's be ig. we sold 1.8 million pizzas last year during the tournament. >> i'm looking forward to michigan next year. they didn't quite get there this year. but i'm a big ten guy so i'm cheering for wisconsin. >> forgive me for not knowing this. what percentage of your stores are company owned relative to how many are franchised? >> we're 100% franchised outside. we're 90% inside. >> where are you on the issue of pay following the news from mcdonald's and walmart and others? >> the great news is the economy is moving. it is getting better. it's getting harder to hire people.

it's why i think you've seen a lot of these announcements around pay. friday's jobs report i think it was a blip. i think the reality is the labor market is tightening up. and we've got to respond to that. it's getting harder to hire people. that drives wages up. >> are you going to do it? >> we've got to get the right people for our business. we're a majority franchise. so they make that decision themselves, but for our own stores i mean we've got stores in queens brooklyn, and the bronx. we've got to pay more to get people right. >> what if you have an outlier, a franchisee that isn't playing ball the way they should. >> we've got contractual rights. >> but they're entrepreneurs too. >> they're entrepreneurs. that's what makes the system work. over 90% of our franchisees started as hourly workers in our stores. worked their way up through the system, became a manager, bought a store.

i mean we are this little entrepreneurial factory. >> so how do you decide to open up a new area and can you borrow some of existing areas? >> yeah. we still have some areas where there's room just to build new stores with new territory. i mean we've got a little over 5,000 stores in the u.s. today. we can probably build at least another thousand. >> when do you stop you know trying to add new items? i guess never, but that can be put on the back burner at some point, can't it? do you need more items? >> we've only launched two things in the last three years. we launched a specialty chicken product and pan pizza almost three years ago now. we think our menu's as big as it needs to get. probably what you'll see from us if we launch something new, we probably take something else off. >> salad would be tough to watch? >> we've got salads in about a third of our stores. they do okay. number one thing consumers ask

for with their pizza and then we don't necessarily sell that much of that. >> it is the number one thing people ask for with their pizza and it's still not a big seller. >> how many can you do tonight? it's a one versus one game. >> i'm sure we're selling a million pizzas tonight. >> did you see the no-hitter stuff? how does it work now? >> the exact rule is you go onto mlb.com and so it's opening day today and so the first two no hitters of the year you go online, you order, we give away 20,000 free pizzas. last year we gave them all away in ten minutes. >> put this on your alert thing in your phone. >> there's been a lot more no hitters in recent time.

>> we do the first two. >> you're a smart man. >> how about harbaugh? >> i'm a fan. harbaugh's terrific. >> he's right around the corner now. >> yeah. that should be exciting. michigan should be good. >> they're going to be. they're going to be. i'm blue through and through. we'll get it back. >> in the days of the fab five and stuff, got to bring that back too. michigan state's been stealing some thunder. >> you know what? john is phenomenal. he's the basketball coach at michigan. he is absolutely amazing. i love the basketball program where he is right now. >> all right. >> yea we get to eat now. >> this interview went on forever. no i'm kidding. thank you. it's great to have you in studio. >> as many elsmells delicious. coming up some californians shaking their head. we'll explain why after the break. through good times and bad.

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california governor jerry brown looking at water restrictions in the state. the governor pushing back of applying the new rules to the farming industry which using the bulk of the water. he says extending the restrictions to the farmers would amplify the harm economically. the governor announced a crackdown on residential and business use of water last week that will last nine months. it aims to reduce water usage by

25%. the use restrictions will focus on irrigation of lawns and other outdoor landscapes including large campuses, golf courses, and cemeteries. coming up, stanford professor and chairman ed lazire joins us to talk jobs and when the fed will raise rates. let's look at the futures. that's how they look at this hour, about an hour before the open. the dow would open down 127. the s&p down 15. we're back after this. hy pause to take a pill? and why stop what you're doing to find a bathroom? with cialis for daily use, you don't have to plan around either. it's the only daily tablet approved to treat erectile dysfunction so you can be ready anytime the moment is right. plus cialis treats the frustrating urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain

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welcome back to "squawk box." let's look at some stocks in the news this morning. tesla delivered more than -- a 55% increase over a year ago. real estate investment trust ventas will buy arden health services for $1.75 billion in cash. cincinnati. >> no. vetas. this is ventas. i stand with what i tell you.

it was a hospice, but it was vetas. this is different. i should have known because my mother actually had had the vetas hospice care which was also based there. got it? that's my correction. yeah. >> all right. >> sorry. >> so noted. what time is it? >> this won't happen often. >> all right. qualcomm is under pressure this morning. a teardown of the new samsung galaxy s6 phone says it does not contain the qualcomm modem. breaking news. steve leisman has the details. >> thanks very much. bill dudley speaking now giving a speech. we could tell you what it says. he's the first fed guy -- fed official to speak since the disappointing jobs report saying the jobs slowdown was broad based, in his opinion. and raising questions about whether that report indicated a

more substantial slowing in the economy. he says q1 is likely to be weak around 1% in his estimate. and he said the surprises we've seen so far are temporary factors though there is some downside risk overall to growth from oil and the dollar. want to give you specifically comments on the oil and the dollar. says the dollar rises likely week to week trade. the strength means significant shack to the economy. oil's decline will lead to further drop. and will create meaningful drag on the economy. on policy he says the rate hike path is likely to be relatively shallow. and he talks about the fed funds rate at 3.5%. a dovish dudley this morning. though i will say he's not necessarily ruling out an earlier rate hike. just saying it's data dependent. right now it looks weak to him. back to you. >> okay steve. thank you. we're going to spend some

time with david darst who is well prepared as you always are before we get to ed lazear. if you had to choose on which list to run, there's reasoning you like europe. i think i've heard your signs of what's a correction of what's a bear market. that might be good for us to know right now. we're at a point where six years of -- maybe bull markets don't die of old able. certainly people are questioning whether this continues. >> john templeton who lived to be 98 years old, he said bear markets are born on pessimism, grow of skepticism mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. i believe we're in a period of skepticism moving to optimism. if the economy picks up later this year. the bear market checklist is the fed tightening. doesn't seem like it's going to. even if they raise rates. >> i agree. the rate of change will be small, but it is the difference.

>> joe, michelle scott, a couple of months the second condition for a bear market to ensue is recession looming. doesn't seem like it but the factory orders durable goods orders which scott alluded to the ism numbers. it's probably out now. supposed to come out at 8:30. the number last time was 56-something. so you've seen chicago purchasing. last week it was 45 which is very very below expansion. so that one's up in the air now. on a short-term basis, no. they're expensive. 17 times, 16 times of on a long-term basis, they're overvalued. the seller pe is 27. that's this ten-year average adjusted pe. on a short-term basis, okay. next is the transportation, the

small cap and the bank stocks underperforming welltive to the market. two of these three are the banks and the transportation stocks that have come -- airlines -- >> what does that tell us? >> it's basically what you said earlier. the manufacturing and the strong dollar have reduced the rate of -- >> you got half of these saying it's over. >> half of these -- that's why the market is acting the way it is. it's stalled right now, joe. it is looking. it is waiting to see some clarity on these things that -- >> is it like the ben franklin close. if you get six are good five are bad. it's not that exact is it? why are you saying skepticism to optimism? >> i think the optimism is going to be driven by the low energy prices, these people starting to spend. they've been saving the income gain from the lower goose lean prices. the bond yield spreads, are they widening or narrowing?

so right now 4.5 are saying keep going. and this is basically a soft spot. tom brady getting sacked a couple of times. that's what this is. we think i think, the rest of this year the market will end up higher. what the market has basically lacked in strength it will make up for in length. and the economy. >> we've got more now. >> for more on the economy, ed lazear joins us now. he is a senior fellow and former council of economics chair. and someone that we're always glad to see because of your expertise in the labor markets. and we always talk about jolts and you always explain it so well to us and we could use it. after friday's number we're in all of the -- you know it's a great job market. it's not a great job market. wage. where are we after your view on friday? >> i'd say don't read too much

into any one month. the reason i pay more attention to this one is it's not just one month. it's a series of indicators all of which -- almost all of which are pointing in the same direction. as you mentioned, jolts is an important statistic that we look at. it stands for joeb openings and labor turnover survey for those of your viewers not familiar with it. what that gives us is the number of hires per month, numbers of layoffs and so forth. there's a lot you can learn from that. unfortunately jolts which has actually comeback and comeback pretty significantly is down. and so it's declined over the past month. it went from 5.2 to about 5 million. it's a pretty significant drop. coupled with that the household numbers were not good. and in addition to that one of the things you didn't mention on your show friday i was surprised because i know you're tuned into this. one of the important indicators is hours of work. that fell as well.

it could be weather related. i know you had a tough winter out there. but, you know whether it's weather or not. those things are seasonally adjusted. the hours declining can give you about 350,000 jobs negative. so that's a big statistic. the trends are down. if we look at the last three months as compared to the previous nine months that's also negative. all of those things are bad. the one positive is of course the wage growth we've seen this month. that tends to work in the other direction. whether that's a blip or will be sustained as another issue. >> maybe there's a little weather in there. maybe it's a little dollar strength, do you think. or what do you attribute it to? whenever we think the economy is finally safely above stall speed, it seems like we get some of these numbers. >> well, it seems to be happening almost every year. i mean you get a takeoff and then the spring comes and it seems to slow down.

again, we blamed the weather last year. that might have been part of it. i think it -- i don't think it's the dollar by the way. i think first of all, the dollar is affected by trade patterns not only affecting trade patterns. so you have to say which is driving which. it's certainly not clear to me what's going on there. but the other point that i think the most important point is that most of the evidence suggests that movements in the dollar don't have very strong effects on the economy particularly on our economy because unfortunately we're not as trade oriented as perhaps we should be. and so you do get some effects, no doubt. but those tend to be relatively small. and i don't think that's what's causing the action right now. >> are slowly, though, workers getting in the driver's seat in terms of having more choice and we'll start to see some gains there? >> well there is some good evidence for that. first of all, that's a general trend you see after a session. first thing you see happening is that the unemployment rate

declined. then the next thing you see happening is wages tend to grow. one could argue that's the part of the cycle we are at right now. it's a possibility. again, i wouldn't place too much weight on it because it is one month and we've seen those wage numbers being volatile in the past. and sow again i wouldn't think too seriously about that number being indicative. and i'm also certainly not worried about it being an indication of high inflation. at least in the future. but that's a different issue. and the question is how the fed reads this and whether they'll decide that it's time to raise interest rates as a result of those wage numbers. i doubt that very seriously. >> do you think it's as simple as pro-growth policies are what we need to finally get -- we've almost said that those don't matter anymore. because the economy after six years of no pro-growth policies really is doing pretty well. but is that what we really need

to get -- to unshackle the u.s. economy. >> i wouldn't say the economy is doing well. i would say the economy is back to a speed that's slightly below its 30-year average. pre-recession 30-year average. never recovered. we're about 15% down from the gdp that we would have had had we not had a recession in a slow recovery. and during the recovery we've never had growth rates that are consistent with the kinds of growth rates we had in the previous 30 years. so that's not exactly a strong economy. i think there are many things we can do. you know we've talked about them many times before. my usual list includes tax reform trade, budgetary -- some kind of budgetary consolidation where we think about long-term deficits and so forth. and then the final one, of course, is regulation. i know you've talked a lot about

that. >> those are so yesterday. those are so -- every one of them is so not progressive and so yesterday. and infrastructure and minimum wage. >> and why is the savings rate rising and the retail sales and consumption sales so weak in spite of the consumer confidence numbers uptick. why do we have that softness in the consumer side and the savings rate rising? >> well that's usually a sign of uncertainty. if you look at economies where there's significant uncertainty where you're worried about what's going to happen in the future you tend to see rates rise and you also see that during recessions as well. sometimes people see that as a cause of recession. what that tells me is there's still significant uncertainty out there. there's discomfort with the way the economy is moving. and it is true that some of the consumer confidence numbers have been high. by the way, those tend to be highly related to gasoline prices. we did a study of that when i was in the government and the

most important factor in driving consumer confidence was the gasoline price. so we may be seeing some of that being reflected in lower oil prices. that's certainly part of it. >> all right, ed. we've got to run. appreciate it. thank you. >> my pleasure. thank you. when we return questions remain about the preliminary agreement with iran to curb the nuclear weapons program. we go inside the deal find out what it means for america. that's coming up next. check out treasuries at this hour. 10-year yield 1.84%.

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iran points to re-enter the global economy if the deal is confirmed by june 30th. here's michael hayden who joined us in the last hour. >> i understand the president's broad concept here that we can perhaps bring iran more further, more integrated into the community of nation. that's a high-risk task in itself. but in addition to that you've got the subtask of actually doing that process well. and so far i think the jury is out. >> with more on that and other geopolitical headlines, senior associate at carnegie endowment for peace.

good to have you here. >> thank you. >> president obama telling tom friedman over the weekend that the deal is the best path to prevent iran from getting a nuclear bomb. do you agree? >> it depends on what the deal is. i think the version of the deal revealed in the last few days was a strong deal. much stronger than people anticipated. the big question is now whether iran is operating off that same framework. if they are, then i think it is quite a strong deal and cynics would be hard pressed to find better alternatives. >> they say they're going to cheat. do you think they're going to cheat? >> it certainly is within the realm of possibilities. this an engagement between two parties who deeply mistrust each other. iran certainly has a long history of kind of cheating on its nuclear program and being quite repressive towards its own population. the character of the iranian regime isn't going to change overnight. but they're going to have enormous incentives not to cheat

because they will risk the integration they're trying to pursue. >> what do you say to allies in the middle east who actually don't get as good a deal as iran? who we told you cannot enrich. yet we're going to let iran enrich. what are the ripple effects in the region because of this if it comes to pass of course? >> sure. obviously the israelis are most concerned. they believe that an iran with an advanced nuclear program constitutes a threat. but has well over a hundred nuclear weapons, they're perhaps a year away from one. >> what about our middle eastern partners? >> i was going there. >> sorry. >> it's okay. i think in the coming weeks you'll see tremendous outreach from the united states to the gulf arab countries. this nuclear detente doesn't mean interests. you will see a security pact

sign with them. but those details will need to be worked out. >> looking at this moment for the president, we're talking about re-establishing relations with cuba trying to make this move with iran. when we look back on this is this going to look like -- and i asked this last hour. is this going to be like a nixon and china moment or more jimmy carter? >> i think that's a fair question. and we won't know. i think this is something that we will look back five ten years from now. worst case scenario it was a deal which was merely transactional. iran grabbed its incentives and reconstituted a nuclear program a year or two later. best case scenario we look back and say this is what brought iran back into the international community. this is what facilitated within iran. and, you know president obama's argument is to say that's a worthy gamble. worst case scenario iran doesn't pose a real security threat to the united states.

>> that's -- tell me what the worst case scenario is. >> a year or two from now we look back and say iran wasn't sincere about making a nuclear compromise and we'll have to go back to the coercive sanctions regime that we've pursued up until now. >> is that even going to be possible or is europe going to go along with that? >> it's pretty obvious it's iran which has reneged on its end of the deal then certainly the countries that constitute the p5+1 revert back. >> great to have you back on. thank you. >> thank you. all right. still to come this morning, we're going to catch up with jim cramer find out what he'll be watching this week in the markets. and a programming note. tomorrow on "squawk box," the ceo of lane bryant. you won't want to miss that. 7:40 eastern tomorrow morning. more "squawk" in just a moment. stick around.

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let's get down to the new york stock exchange, where jim cramer joins us now with some negative numbers on the futures from the jobs report, i think, jim.

were you thinking about those numbers on friday after they came out? they were a little bit surprising. >> well, you know i just think that a huge chunk of the market really doesn't care about these numbers. i mean this market has been dominated by mckesson and amerisourcebergen and activist. these things mean nothing to them. if you want to get long emerson today, i think you're going to have some tough slogging. this is not an environment where you want to be able to buy 3m at least until like 11:30. 100,000 jobs here or there is not going to determine things. i think there's a lot of companies that are going to report sub par quarters but they may not even matter because the futures -- let's say they've obviated themselves because they've reflected a lot of companies that no one really cares about anymore. >> really. so we're flat for the year sort of. >> well internally there's just tremendous fluctuations. and i wonder whether this isn't the moment you want to buy oil, because if the dollar did peak

out, the stocks are going to come back. i wonder whether you don't keep coming back to kraft, to valiant, the big money growth guys care about, because they're not trading the futures. someone's trading the futures. making a case immediately that this market all trades in lock step. you know, i don't know. this is a market dominated by tesla and netflix. by twitter, by facebook and by these health care stocks. it's not dominate by u.s. steel. you're not buying newcorps here. and this isn't even an alcoa market. so these futures reflect, i don't know, airlines? it's tough to get a handle what the futures reflect versus what is really being invested in right now. >> all right, jim. thank you. see you in a couple minutes. six minutes. "squawk on the street." >> all right, when we return -- i'm here! from former guest host david darst, including names he thinks will be in the second quarter. "squawk box" will be right back.

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here's today's watch list. you know, fill us in after we're finished. 10:00 a.m. eastern, the ism non-manufacturing data will be released for the month of march. pay attention to oil prices as well rising quite a bit this

morning. tonight it's the ncaa final. wisconsin versus duke. the blue devils beat the badgers earlier in the season by ten points. >> both different teams the way they're playing at this point. duke's been playing great. wisconsin rose to the occasion. >> beat the best team in the land. got to back it up. >> but that's what they say, the best team can be the team with the most talented players. and i stress "t-e-a-m." i don't like that if they don't shake hands. anyway i'm going to shake hands -- we shook hands, the day we were talking about the elevator and stuff. do you remember that? maybe not. but that's you that didn't. let's get some final thoughts. so david, i am excited to hear why you're very positive on europe. bet you had some really good reasons. >> joe, europe is up already 18%. >> since when? >> since the beginning of the year. 18%. you can buy it on a hedge basis too these days.

you have these products where they'll sell the euro. but that's one of the five reasons why you want to buy europe. the euro has cheapened 10% against the u.s. dollar, and unlike the u.s. which you mentioned is only 9% of our gdp as exports, 50% of europe's gdp as exports. that will help them. >> okay. >> secondly you have the quantitative easing program, which mario draghi finally brought in march of this year. >> okay. >> thirdly, the long-term valuations. that's the schiller pe or the ten-year adjusted inflation pe. that thing in europe is 15. versus 27 in the united states. fourthly, joe. europe is a user of oil. not a producer of oil, like we are. and oil being lower helps euro. helps europe. and that leads to the fifth reason, which is the gdp, which was .9% growth last year is expected to be 1.6%. christine lagarde and others say will be an uptick and you can have a sixth reason if you wanted, which is the money supply growth has been quite

large over there. >> don't worry about greece. none of the things he just said would be impacted. >> you don't care? >> greece comes or goes or otherwise. >> could lead to some short-term volatility, no question about it. the concept of a unified europe that people want to keep going into rather than somebody finally leaving could be mentally destabilizing. but that's a short-term thing. >> it's all going to keep going. >> look at the spanish and italian bond yields. 1.2%. look at the french. .4%. >> nobody's worried. >> .2% for germany. joe, also buy japan. also think about taking some money off the table for reits and putting them into mlps, which have been beaten down. >> thanks david. >> our thanks to david darst. and make sure you guys join us. you're back? >> yes, tomorrow. >> "squawk on the street" is next. ♪ swing, batter batter swing, batter batter ♪ >> good monday morning.

welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber at the new york stock exchange. first chance for the market to react to friday's disappointing jobs number and it has set up some bearish action to start the week. get ready for earnings season as well. alcoa hits on wednesday. oil back above 50 this morning as the saudis raise prices again, recovering from that tumble after the iran nuclear deal. ten-year is below 185, a fresh two-