>> live from new york where business never sleeps this is squawk box. >> we are discussing how to spell it. good morning, welcome to squawk box on cnbc. becky and and drew are off today. congratulations to the blue devils this morning. if you went to sleep early you missed duke beating wisconsin 68-63 to take home the school'sing fifth ncaa men's basketball title. students celebrated with a controlled school's sanctioned bonfire that lasted until the early hours this morning. it could be going on right now. many elated duke fans off campus too including our own john harang gets harwood that will join us definitely sleep deprived.

including duke mba tim cook. he was snapping many pictures with fans. >> all right. >> i didn't stay up. >> i didn't either. >> did you. >> no i was gone before this. >> were you? >> really. >> i didn't want to try to watch it because i didn't want to turn it off. >> the schedule -- this is not your normal schedule. to be here with us you. >> i sacrificed the national championship game to be here with you joe. >> you had nothing left in your pool. >> your brackets. >> it meant zero. >> exactly. >> i think i could win the bracket out right before i could spell it. >> who did you have winning? >> next year. >> i was just as bad. >> i'm embarrassed. i read too many articles. >> it's not like you the

bearcats or anything like that. >> i wish i had. i wish i would have taken the musketeers just for the heck of it. instead of blowing my chance on villanova. >> that's who i picked too. >> why? >> because i didn't want to pick kentucky because everybody picked kentucky. >> it was 49% chance they would win which they didn't but 80% of the people picked them. do you know who had duke and wisconsin? my son? >> wow. >> he was like 60,000 out of i don't know how many million. he just liked the names. nothing to do with it. >> it's great skill. >> something going around that romney -- i was going to say -- >> 99.8%. >> and then the president -- he had villanova too which i can't blame him for that. >> he won the more important contest. >> what.

>> the presidential -- >> that was awhile ago. >> here are the other big stories we're watching today. fed ex buying dutch delivery rival tnt express. it was blocked by competition regulators two years ago. fedex and tnt don't expect similar opposition. they already had a strong network and fred smith will join squawk on the street this morning at 9:45 a.m. eastern time. on the economical lan calendar today, that's at 10 eastern. and then at 3:00 this afternoon consumer credit also worth watching an auction of 3 year notes at 1:00 p.m. eastern and two notable political stories today. senator rand paul officially announcing his white house run at a rally down in louisville in a video release this week he describes himself as a different kind of republican. meantime in chicago voters head

to the polls for the city's first ever mayoral run off. the incumbent fighting for his political life after failing to win a majority of the votes in the election six weeks ago. >> he's up by 20 points at this point. >> you think? >> it's been widening. >> there was a point there. >> but i know what was rich was he was getting a taste of what it's like to get it from the progressive side of things because he's done a lot of -- it was common sense. a lot of the things that he did. but if you do things based on common sense you'll hear from the progressive left. you are. among our stocks to watch today, viacom announcing restructuring. the company is going to cut jobs and abandon required titles and reorganize three domestic network groups into two new organizations. they're halting the 20 billion

dollar share buy back program as a result. and shares are down sharply and the company says it's lead eye drug failed to meet one of the main goals in a second late stage study and that's down 32%. shares of clovis oncology getting a boost. granting break through designation for an ovarian cancer treatment and dyax with a public offering of its common stock. >> let's check on the markets this morning. we'll show you the futures even though yesterday's experience makes me wonder why do we bother. but the dow opens higher up by 14 points if everything stays the same. s&p would open flat and the nasdaq would open higher by a little more than two points. let's show you what's going on with europe. the unexpected rally yesterday where investors decided bad news was good news. we now see that continue in europe. france ftse germany, even

greece higher today across the board. france and the u.k. and germany higher. we'll show you the spanish t-bill. investors agreed to pay the spanish state to hold six month treasury bills. yes you're giving your money to the government and get less of it back at the end. the yield came out at negative 0.002. negative yield. so as we continue to see the effects of quantitative easing across europe. higher across the board sang high was higher. the price of oil is lower, wti is lower. a decline of 21. the ten year yield. >> let's see. surging. >> surging back. >> 1.8%. the dollar is stronger across the board against the euro the

yen and the pound. >> is that what we think it was? bad news is good news? >> i said that wasn't going to happen. >> i said you know never underestimate the ability for more, you know easy money to cause traders to stay in. >> the economy can be going to hell in a hand basket. it will be the 6th year of economic growth but we're not going up a quarter. to me i don't get it but nothing more powerful. never fight the fed. you've heard that a lot and i guess you can't. but dudly what do you say? you look in the journal and -- >> he was pretty dovish. >> but they say this was weather related and the economy is still

pretty good but others saw him saying we're walking on egg shells. we'll so so slow. it may not be 4%. we started a quarter in establish and we go slow and slow and they didn't take it dovish and that caused the market to go up. >> there was another economic report. it was the services report in line and maybe after the jobs report and the disappointing manufacturing report that it was a relief that okay o, maybe economy is not as bad as some people think by virtue of a job's report. i don't know. >> the markets can go up if rates go up as long as it's for good reason. so rates go up. what if rates go up and we stay tepid? if they go in june. so it's going up for the wrong reason. >> there's absolutely thought out there that says it would be the worst thing ever. >> but we're flat for the year. who knows where we really are. >> but now we're up.

>> but basically flat. even 170 points. stocks are hoping for another day following the triple digit climb on the dow. here to dpif us the first read is the chief u.s. market strategist with rbc capital markets and i haven't talked to you in awhile. can you defend the notion that as long as you're at zero you visit -- what's that? nothing else. there is nothing -- >> there is no other alternative. is that what this is? >> margaret thatcher made it. >> she said? >> yeah. >> well i like it. i look at it a little bit differently. if you took the discount rate on your cash flows, a stock is worth a lot more than they're currently tading at. >> this is the old -- >> yeah. >> easy fed so you're going to stay along. >> but here's the reason why the fed is is going to you know the market is basically telling

you that the fed is not going to be able to get more than 150 basis points on fed funds at the end of 17 and if the fed tries the dollar starts to rise and puts pressure on the u.s. economy and the fed runs away and people basically project and aren't able to pull it off. i'd love to see the fed be able to move toward 2% but with free money in europe it's hard for them to get tighter. >> it's weird because i don't remember them -- i never remember us just constantly looking over there. >> but the market is. if you have 20 central banks and the fed is moving toward tightening you get a better that's 20% stronger and you start to see -- it's not just the ism report and jobs report. for the last four or five months

we had economic data coming in consistently weaker than estimates and that's what happened. >> if you have all of this competition for the long end of the curve and everybody is so desperate for yield and it goes lower and lower because the u.s. looks good and if the fed lowers on the short end you end up perhaps with an inverted yield curve at some point, right? >> it's hard to think you're going to get a zero u.s. yield but people have been wrong for a long time saying interest rates are going to rise and you talk about what is germany now,.2%. it's crazy. >> fedexis paying $5 billion for tnt. there's plenty of financial engineering available at zero. >> very soon next week we'll start looking at earnings and what is going to fuel this thing to keep moving certainings are going to come in way better than people think. the energy sector is going to be

a dog and everybody knows that. the rest of the market is is going to look much better than people think. >> people said yesterday the dollar weakness spurred the markets. >> yeah and that was why gold was up so much also. >> the dollar has run too much too fast and it's already doing damage. heres the problem. that dollar strength which we had since last june it has a lag effect. it takes companies a long time to change contracts and hedges and stuff and so the dollar gets stronger it really is bad for the whole economy and it's taking a break. >> what is it telling us? it's flattened out over the last couple of months relatively speaking. maybe this isn't necessarily the case. this strong dollar forever? >> do i think the u.s. economy is better than the rest of the world? absolutely yes. our demographics are better.

our banking system is better. if you look at the innovation that happens here in bio tech and technology there's no place -- if you look at the global indices there's no place in the world that has this kind of innovation. that said you can't have your currency move 20% in 8 months and have it not be extremely disruptive and that's what that is telling you. >> i would figure if the dollar looks like it's pickeeked that would give them some cover too. are we back at 110? >> we are. i just read it. i can't remember. >> if you think about how strong the dollar has gotten isn't that like the fed tightening? i'm not an economist. is that 100 basis points or 200 basis points? but this dollar strength is no different than if the fed did a big tightening cycle. so the dollar did the work for the fed. >> i certainly don't think -- there's no way you can call zero tight. i don't care where it is. >> of course it's not tight. but you're talking about -- i'm

going to talk -- i'm not talking about the interest rate. i'm talking about what the dollar has done. it makes it harder for u.s. companies to compete. >> there's no benefit to normalizing -- maybe they were right. maybe it's a new normal. there's no way that zero is normalizing rates. >> no. >> you're asking for trouble. >> we would be way better off off of zero but with the rest of the world printing money and with ten year paper in switzerland, negative interest rates it's hard for the fed to move without causing the dollar to skyrocket. are we asking the permission of the europeans for our central bank policy i'm not sure but the market saying it is. >> so you would say long you figure, what do we do high single digits this year so we're back to that. here we are in april. >> i have a really bullish call with like a 12 to 14% return.

>> you're a 12 to 14. >> i think this lower for longer slower for longer environment is pretty good for stocks and i think the surprise is that the earnings story is going to be really robust. >> that's a 12% return including dividends. >> no we have a 23-25. if you look at the average year you don't have recession the market is up 18%. as long as recession nary risk is away there's no reason you won't get double digit price returns on the market and people are way too bearish. >> all right. jonathan, thank you. thanks for stopping by at 6:00 a.m. now. you have the rest of your day to do productive things as well. >> i appreciate you though getting me up early for this. >> he was smart. he was really smart. early to bed, early to rise. that may be the smartest thing anyone -- pause you lead a clean life. that's why you didn't get to

watch last night. >> early to rise. it's a good way to live. you can't be an alcoholic or drug addict. you need to go to bed early and be here. it's a good way to manage your affair. don't you think? >> i feel great. >> scores is probably open 24 hours. >> or you can go to one of those worse places that are open at like -- do people go at 9:00 i feel bad for people. >> maybe they work the night shift. >> 9:00 in the morning -- how did we get on this. >> good to have you here. >> you took us there. you're going back to the office now right. >> i'm in the office every day like you guys. >> rand paul is set to become the latest republican to throw a hat into the 2016 presidential ring. first take a look at shares of

target. trading at the highest level since going public in 1967. as we head to break here's a look back at this date in history. ♪ hello. i am here to offer sophisticated investing strategies. my technology can help you choose the right portfolio. monitor it.

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welcome back. the ceo says the company will now cover the entire cost of getting an online bachelor's degree. starbucks announced the college achievement plan with arrests state university last june. his company expects to spend 250 murder in the second degree or more over a decade on tuition reimbursement. senator rand paul expected to laufshlg his bid later today the washington correspondent has not announced kwet. announced yet. do you think coach k should run. >> i wanted to show you. we are ready. >> can you spell it john without looking down? >> i can but i won't. >> you could? >> no. >> he doesn't want to show off. >> there's a double meaning here

of course because rand paul went to medical school at duke. i don't know if he stayed up late to watch the game. if he got his beauty sleep or whatever but everybody connected with the school has reason to feel good this morning and rand paul has reason to feel good because he's the second guy to center this race. it was ted cruz at liberty university. now rand paul is announcing at the hotel. he is a key character so where ted cruz sent a message by announcing his liberty university rand paul is doing the same thing here and marco rubio announced that the freedom tower in miami rand paul starts this race in the middle of the pack if you look at our nbc wall street journal poll 49% of republicans said they're open to supporting him. 40% don't. that's slightly better than jeb bush considered the front

runner. not as good as scott walker but better than ted cruz and rand paul is trying to inherit his father's coalition as a candidate but also break out of it and expand. so you see here that he is now running third in the state of iowa and third in the state of new hampshire. ron paul ended up finishing 2nd in new hampshire and 3rd in iowa. doing worse in south carolina which is more of a evangelical state. they're attacking him on the national foreign policy. the idea that he would be more congenial to negotiations with iran as opposed to a muscular solution. he has his work cut out for him. this race is accelerating. we're soon going to have a whole bevy of candidates and rand paul

will be right in the mix. >> kind of weird that the first two, i guess they needed them cruz and paul are fringe candidates. news bussers is going to see me say that and they're going to say cnbc calls paul and cruz fringe candidates but they're much further right than what some people think the party needs to appeal to enough people to win a majority. >> in different ways but they're trying to break from the fringe into the mainstream. ted cruz has done very well in polls since he announced and rand paul with the reach out to young people to minority voters which republicans need to do better with is trying to make the case that he's a more modern republican and therefore ought to be in the republican mainstream and we'll see if he can pull it off but he has marco rubio, jeb bush scott walker all more traditional republican candidates in terms of their fiscal social and economic and

foreign policy approaches and that's what rand paul's challenge is going to be. >> i was wondering the other day whether he was named after ron -- then i was saying she's a big atheist. i don't know if you go to a religious place. >> he went by randy when he was a kid but he has shortened that to rand and i think you can read the symbolism in there as many people will. >> no kidding. >> sure. >> to your point. ron paul has said he is not named after him. his name is randall. >> his name is randall. >> but the choice to go with rand you're suggesting -- >> he doesn't -- yes, i mean i don't think it's escaped his mind that he is going by a shortened version of his first name which happens to match the author who is a libertarian

hero. >> i saw yesterday a lot of the nightly news coverage last night -- this is great for hilary. great person to bring on board but then they did the bush story about how embarrassing it was for him to have checked off hispanic hispanic. >> if i were applying to medical school i don't know, if it wasn't just an honest mistake where he hit the wrong thing people didn't think he was hispanic. >> there could be any reason to do that -- why would the media make it like he was trying to do something -- i don't think that anyone could think george h.w. bush's son is hispanic.

>> it's interesting. >> he checked the wrong box. >> it's an interesting mistake but it doesn't mean a thing and doesn't confer any advantage on him and it's the kind of thing that, look not in the race yet. we have to cover something about what he is doing and it's not important important. >> it reminds me of elizabeth warren being a native american. >> that's different. >> she was trying to accrue some benefit from that. >> i'm saying why don't they make a bigger deal out of that relative to this is my point. >> that was made a plenty big deal when she ran -- michelle that was a plenty big deal when she ran for the senate in massachusetts. that was a big problem for her and it will be a problem if she chooses to run for president in the future. >> so i said ron is a -- what do you think, up 20 now? what are your numbers, john?

>> i'm sorry, who? >> rom emanuel. have you seen the poll numbers? >> most people expected that he was going to grind down garcia at the end. he is appealing in many ways but doesn't have as fleshed out a program as rom emanuel has and some of the debates are underscored. >> certainly the coach makes a big difference. it's recruiting and the way you put the team together and it plays and all of that and this guy is something special i guess. five of them. >> bo ryan is also a specific coach. wisconsin is a great, great program. >> you're being very gracious. >> it looks like college basketball used to be and we all wish it could be where you have kids that stay in college for four years and grow together as

a team. but to get his championship shows the resilience and competitiveness and adapt blt and to the benefit of all of us that love duke university. >> did you watch the game? >> are you kidding me? i watched the whole postgame. >> how much sleep did you get? >> not very much. but under the circumstances it's enough. >> all right john. congratulations. i don't know how they he do things like that where they kind of -- they don't really show up. a lot of teams don't show up full force until the fournment i think -- tournament i think. >> coach k builds his team for the ncaa tournament and we saw that again. >> all right. michigan state, i mean what were they? 7th seed or something?

>> anyway thank you. >> you bet. >> from basketball to baseball. coming up baseball is officially open for the season. we'll tell you what labor can learn from the league's player's union. that's next. first as we head to break, check out shares of dr horton. the home builder is trading at levels since seen since 2007 and now here are more of yesterday's biggest winners and a few losers. ♪

welcome back. time for the squawk planner. i guess that means we're doing it. >> no i don't think so. >> i'm not sure what that is. >> i think we're doing chair. >> well we're in the chairs. >> exactly. >> let's do chairs. >> just read the rest. >> and that's today's squawk planner. >> good. >> everybody is now up to speed on exactly what we have planned. >> you got that? hopefully people have pen and paper in hand and have planned accordingly based on that great -- >> if that's what they're

planning on -- >> sure i guess. >> good job. let's go. chairs, thank you. good squawk planner. let's two. >> so there's baseball season started yesterday, day before. there's this kid that plays in the chicago cubs system he is a young kid and he had a tremendous spring training and everybody said the cubs have been using it and they sent him to the minor leagues it gives the cubs an extra year of his services before he could become a free agent. so his agent is the high profile sports agent. he's like it's unbelievable. it's exactly why the cubs are

losers. they're saying now wait a minute we're just doing what everybody single team has done in the past if you look throughout baseball history almost every great player from the last decade has gone through the same thing. the team sends him down and brings him back up. >> i don't get why they did that but that makes sense. >> new york times has a story how it's a lesson in labor. how it's -- >> they are mad about it. how it's an effort to pit the star players against the professional sports. >> they're against free markets in everything except this case. >> and they're totally against any conversation over the mean conversation of the average work worker it's weird because like labor unions where they're baseball players. they don't know whether to be on their side or not.

they make $4 million a year so we're not on their side. so you should divide it among everyone so the times doesn't know what to do. mike trout is arguably the best player in the game. he was down in the minors. i can't remember samome of the names but almost every player minimum has done it this way. >> that's good. you're going to talk about another labor union. >> no you can. >> there's brazil now. different batista. remember used to be the 7th richest man in the world. >> if you get to roll your rs you will show off. no one does it better. she even rolls rs at the greek guys. >> it's a habit. so they're on trial for insider trader. they have to redo the trial completely because the judge in his case is now charged with embezzlement from a separate drug trafficking case he was presiding over. this comes after the judge had

already borrowed his porche to drive around after it was seized. >> this is oil. >> right. >> like a couple of years ago we're talking he's the richest in the world. >> they claimed he would be richer than carlos slim. >> yeah took a wrong turn. >> he did. >> so there's some graph down there going on. >> the irony is that -- >> latin america? >> brazil is trying to prove that it's finally into the modern age, good corporate governments et cetera et cetera. you have batista going down and his judge going down and then of course he's just in the midst. >> i'm going to alienate the left one more time for the heck of it. rom emanuel knows what it's like as does president obama and as done hillary clinton to be a pact -- see the left gets a little traction the last six

years. they're not satisfied so they want to take it all the way to the he liz belgelizabeth warren left. when you take it too far, you know it's not going to work. so with rom he got he was chief of staff for president obama. he lead the democrats to victory in congress and he's being attacked by progressives for being in the pocket of corporations. he is with the chicago business community. he's the mayor. it would be good if businesses flourished in chicago. >> futures union. >> of course. he got five million from the american -- including support from the american federation of teachers and the chicago's teachers union but it is a

little bit rich watching when they get a taste of their own -- >> when you try to do something right by children they squash it. >> and we're talking about mostly the union leaders that are -- i don't know more about it -- >> there's a reason it was the first episode of house of cards. >> he's up 18%. no i'm sorry. 28%. 58-30. had to escape by the skin of his teeth or something. i'm not sure. but still to come this morning, mark grant on what he is paying most attention to right now and then later the results of the

exclusive cnbc all america survey. are americans more confident than the government data might suggest? plus a man that pays a lot of attention to the numbers, mohammed el-erian thinks the market is overvalued because of the fed. >> he'll join us. stay tuned for much more squawk ahead. i care deeply about the gulf. i grew up in louisiana. i went to school here. i've been with bp ever since. today, i lead a team that sets our global safety standards. after the spill we made two commitments. to help the gulf recover and become a safer company. we've worked hard to honor both.

bp has spent nearly 28 billion dollars so far to help the gulf economy and environment. and five years of research shows that the gulf is coming back faster than predicted. we've toughened safety standards too. including enhanced training... and 24/7 on shore monitoring of our wells drilling in the gulf. and everyone has the power to stop a job at any time if they consider it unsafe. what happened here five years ago changed us. i'm proud of the progress we've made both in the gulf and inside bp.

xçó0 european equities are higher on the heels of wall street's rally yesterday and the euro zone accelerating at the fastest pace in a year. is there more growth potential ahead of the continent.

good to have you here. >> good to be here with you michelle. >> what's the case for european equities? they'll be doing quantitative easing and wind is going to be at the back of equities there? >> well that's exactly what's happened. we've seen in the treasury market for example $1 trillion leave the treasury market to front run what's going on with the ecb and in the equity market it's also been a vast and everybody is just front running the ecb. >> when i look at the notes that they sent for your interview, it sounds like you're upset at the possibility that the fed may raise interest rates. is that true? >> that's true. i think it would be a huge mistake for the fed and for america for the fed to raise interest rates. look they're $5 trillion of bonds globally with negative interest rates. 23 central banks lowered rates in the last six months and the biggest issue is the dollar has

depreciated or you can look at it as ravaged by the ecb and for us to raise interest rates in this environment would be really the wrong, wrong thing. >> even with run employment at the levels we're seeing in the united states. >> even with the levels you've got the deflation being exported out of europe. deflation being exported out of oil. the economy is in okay shape but you're also going to see because of the dollar following earnings as we've seen so far. >> james grant will be on later. if he heard you there would be smoke coming out of his ears. so what's your recommendation in term of what people should be doing with investing right now and considering a u. s. based investor has to do it based on

the dollar. >> i want to avoid anything to do with europe. the dow jones is down. the treasury is up 2.5%. if you include the coupon it's 3%. so for individual investor i'd want to look very carefully at the big liquid closed in funds where you can get 8 or 9% on your money and be very happy to get a check every month. >> these are bond funds. >> i don't think that's a word is it? miniculy. >> i try to invent things for you. >> and you're a grant and he's a grant. >> that's right. >> i didn't think of that. >> no you didn't. >> you think rates should be lower. >> remember those magazines you

saw? >> no. >> you say one thing and the other guy is related. >> he's probably a land grant. >> you had a drink. >> no no drinks. >> no. >> that's up for him. >> can you believe this? you're disappointing me. >> 5.5% unemployment but don't go up a quarter, mark? that's not like you. >> we're living in a global world and you have to take into account what the ecb is doing. >> i don't remember them looking around saying we weren't going to mess something up over in some other country. >> thailand doesn't make so much difference but europe does. greece is a whole other story. >> europe suddenly matters that much more. we don't export that much to them. >> yes joe. 40% or for instance the

technology companies 40% of american technology earnings come from the national business. >> we're more porn to them but i understand what you're saying but i can't believe that we're we're -- we're almost at full on employment and that doesn't bother you. answer. >> no i'm just surprised he said avoid anything connected to europe. >> if you're a u.s. dollar based individual investor. am i right, mark? >> that's correct. that's the question you asked me. >> the inability to hedge so costly if you buy a german stock it's so costly. >> etfs. >> they hedge, sure. >> i just don't know. i can't remember many people saying avoid europe. >> as an individual it's super -- we actually did a whole story about it. it's very expensive.

>> money is pouring into the etfs. they're so different. >> you don't remember it. >> i will google it right now. >> tell him i said hello. >> what? >> yeah. >> thank you, mark. >> i do. >> i thought you said gallen. they're begging us to tease. >> is it that bad? coming up a cnbc exclusive. america's most loved beer label according to the people. new poll results are next. thing more romantic than a spontaneous moment. so why pause to take a pill? and why stop what you're doing to find a bathroom? with cialis for daily use, you don't have to plan around either. it's the only daily tablet approved to treat erectile dysfunction so you can be ready anytime the moment is right.

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40% of the streetlights in detroit, at one point, did not work. you had some blocks and you had major thoroughfares and corridors that were just totally pitch black. those things had to change. we wanted to restore our lighting system in the city. you can have the greatest dreams in the world, but unless you can finance those dreams, it doesn't happen. at the time that the bankruptcy filing was done, the public lighting authority had a hard time of finding a bank. citi did not run away from the table like some other bankers did. citi had the strength to help us go to the credit markets and raise the money. it's a brighter day in detroit. people can see better when they're out doing their tasks, young people are moving back in town the kids are feeling safer while they walk to school. and folks are making investments and the community is moving forward.

40% of the lights were out, but they're not out for long.they're coming back.

cnbc.com looking for the most loved beer label and the voters have spoken. cream ale beer label has been crowned the winner. the founder is a former banker who left his career at jpmorgan to begin a brewery in 2012. he joins us now on set. congratulations with this phenomenal honor. >> thank you very much. good morning everybody. how's everybody doing? >> doing well. >> it's good. >> give us the story behind just from newburgh new york. >> upstate an hour and 20 minutes on the hudson river. >> that's not upstate.

>> everything in manhattan is upstate. >> there's a way upstate seven hours away. >> and the label? >> the label is made by modern good. it's anchored on betsy the cow which is our purple cow we love so much. and we also have icons and images that mean a lot to us and the city of newburgh. >> it's busy for your average beer label. >> thank you. and the point of that was to catch the consumer's eye. when you walk in now where there's thousands of skews and options, it's important to catch someone's eye quickly. >> this is a cream ale. what will it remind me of? >> jenny cream ale. it's one of the few styles of beers that indigenous to new york state. >> really? >> who knew? >> you're the actual money behind the brand, right? >> i'm the money guy, yeah. that makes sense. >> your good buddy is the

brewer. >> there's only four. >> but it's 16 ounce. it's 4.2% alcohol. so you want more of it. >> sessionable? >> you can go to a pub and have ten beers and you're not stumbling out the door. but it's a very popular style of packaging now for craft beer, 16 ounces. >> you did the business model in 2009. that times was related to the financial crisis? who wants to be a banker? >> no. it was my main partner who started the business plan. he decided he wanted to strike on his own. i came on and then our third business partner came on as well. he's also a former wall street guy. >> you used to be at jpmorgan. >> that's correct, yes. >> you don't want to getting out, probably. >> i was proud of my time there. loved the people i worked for and with. >> have you sent any to jamie dimon? >> i have not.

i'm not sure if he's a craft beer guy. he strikes me more as a red wine guy. >> it's impossible to start a brewery like in greece, for example. i see ads for new york state all the time now about no taxes for seven years or something. was it advantageous place to start a business in newburgh? >> new burg has the largest historic district in the state of new york. our brewery is in the historic district. we've got very large property tax credits for rehabbing that building there which was important to us. newburgh is a great place to open a business. especially manufacturing because you're at the intersection of 84 and 87. >> there's an airport there. >> there is an airport and also a train. it's very easy for tourism. and craft beer is all about tourism. in 2013 you had $450 million in tourism generated by craft beer. >> where do you sell this stuff? >> we sell it throughout the state of new york and new

jersey. keep your eye out for betsy the cow. >> thank you. coming up we're going straight to the source today. the all-america survey results are next.

optimism about the u.s. economy hitting an eight year high. steve leisman has the exclusive survey data that paints a picture of growth. a $4.8 billion deal in delivery. an explosive deal with eye on expansion in europe. we'll have the details. lane bryant taking a shot at victoria's secret with a new ad campaign i'm no angel. the ceo of the plus size retailer joins us on set. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪

live from the beating heart of business, new york city, this is "squawk box." >> welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc first in business worldwide. i'm joe kernen along with michelle caruso-cabrera and scott wapner. becky and andrew are off today. and there is an acquisition deal from fedex in the transportation arena. fedex is buying dutch delivery rival tnt express for $4.8 billion. the deal would give fedex access to the bids. blocked to buy tnt to buy two years ago. but fedex and tnt say they don't expect similar opposition because unlike fedex, u.p.s. already had a strong european network. fred smith will join "squawk on the street" today at 9:45 eastern. among the other stories we're watching this morning,

children and advocacy groups to investigate the youtube kids app. the app blends video programming and ads in a way that deceive children and parents. spokeswoman for youtube disputed the complaints and said they hadn't been contacted by concerned groups. on the economic calendar today, the jolts report on job openings and labor turnover. get it jolt? then in corporate news samsung out with guidance. the profit likely dropped 30.5% between january and march. that guidance is better than wall street analysts expected. saying revenue likely fell 12.4%. >> americans are feeling more optimistic about the economy. that according to cnbc's all-america survey. steve leisman joins us now with those results. >> good news for a change here. a string of bad economic data. we've had our quarterly poll of 800 americans around the country. let's look at their view of the

current state of the economy. this is the percentage that says it's excellent and good. 27%. putting together two decent quart ners a row. we had that bump up and for a change, we sustained it. you can see we have to go all the way back to december of 2007 before the recession which was 26%. of course, 28% of the public still thinks the economy is fair or poor. but we're making some headway here. and then also you take a look on the views of the future. will the economy get better. and what you see here we put that together. americans kind of maintain their optimism throughout the recession which was curious to pollsters. we put together two positive quarters in a row. and the reason we do this all the time we look at people's outlooks for your home values and their wage outlook. we do this net number which is the percentage that says it's going to increase minus decrease. again, let's go back and take a look here. in 2007 before the recession, 54% of the public thought their

wages were going to go up. during the depths of the recession, we hit 17%. and now we're at 33%. so further back towards the top than we are towards the bottom, but still a ways to go. some decent views on the economy. at least for the post-recession on people's expectations for their home values and their wages. one other thing i want to show you, a very very early read. what's the most important 2000 election issue? economy, health care foreign policy taxes and government. and i'll turn to the left here. political gridlock coming off of the main issues here and environment and climate change. but i want to come back here to this issue of 23%. our pollsters, the republican duo, they tell us that this is a sign that the economy is doing well and the reason is because other polls last year and before that put the economy up into the 40% range. so that's come off just a bit.

a possible sign of the economy doing better that fewer people are mentioning it as the number one issue out there. guys in the next hour we'll come back with what the poll said americans are doing with the gas windfall they've had. got the whole poll on cnbc.com. joe? >> okay, steve. thank you. for more insight into investor sentiment and attitudes towards growth in the u.s., we're joined on set this morning along with john riding chief economist. we'll start with you. i don't know if i've -- have you been on with me before? >> remotely i have. >> good to see you. the reason i ask, i don't remember how -- what your basic stance is on fed involvement, fed exit. whether we stayed too long or whether we're not staying long enough. what do you think? >> i think the fed is in no

hurry to tighten, but i think they will tighten this year. just because we got a pretty weak jobs report we can't deny it was weak. weak across the board. but it does put the fed on hold but it doesn't put the fed on hold indefinitely. i think we're on hold for now pending better data. but i think we will get it. we were just talking about consumer confidence. if you look at the facts that are underpinning the u.s. economy. they've not changed this month. very solid because of the consumer. >> if it is solid, then what is it about staying zero that we think is the right thing to do. is it because we're global now and because of rates in europe? normally i would think normal rates would be around 3% or 4%. >> janet yellen and ben bernanke outlined that the -- the real rate of the economy should still be zero.

because if you look at some of the other indicators of weakness in the labor market you can still see them. for example, if we look at the number of long term unemployed it's 30% versus 20% we saw in the last business cycle. janet yellen believes if you let this go for a little bit longer even if you let the economy overheat for a little bit longer, that's the way to reduce the remaining slack from the remnants of the financial crisis. >> riding that's weird. because the people that sell the -- what we've been able to accomplish over the past six years sell the 5.5% rate unless they need it to say it's not really 5.5% and it's 20%. never had this many people out of the workforce. there's no wage growth. people have part-time jobs. is it a good labor market or not? >> it's a fairly decent labor market. i think it's a lot better certainly a lot better than europe. the idea we should have european style interest rates i find

something of a -- it's not a good idea. the inflation rate is not as low as european rates. and i think part of the problem here is if you look at janet yellen's speeches she's mixed and matched. she's taken some work by john williams who replaced her at the san francisco fed on how low rates should be. then she takes a completely different measure of how much slack in the economy there is. even though they have to be estimated to get the views. >> so she's mixing apples and oranges to get where she wants to be. >> and that feeds into your question about the unemployment rate. you have the 6.5% unemployment rate. until it's within the distance. then that number was taken away.

then it's 5.5%. >> we all willingly drink this kool-aid. i see so many economists that seem to have been lulled into this notion that as long as zero isn't causing any harm we might as well stay there. but we're assuming there's not something long-term that could be an issue with doing this. >> that it's costless. >> that's right. and the problem is it's not just economists. there's now portfolio managers fund managers who also drink the kool-aid. there are fed officials who say zero inflation doesn't mean zero rates. what do people do with that money. it's $100 on average per household in the u.s. >> what is the cost of keeping interest rates down at these

levels? >> well, if you look back at the last expansion when rates were kept at 1% until 2004 and then raises very slowly, the cause was a financial crisis. we had financial instability. >> other people say we don't need to wait for the costs. that we're reaping the costs right now with the weak economy. who say the reason money goes into financial sort of you know engineering rather than long-term plan and equipment, the reason there's no savers. there's reason that right now the reason we had six years at 2% growth is because we've really misallocated where capital should have gone because of the fed being in the pricing of debt rather than managing it. >> i mean that's the whole mek mechanism me fed has been trying to accomplish. trying to push savers into spending. i think i would agree the fed has succeeded in pushing people

into investing. whether you look at high yield flows, emerging market flows. we have managed to push ourselves into higher assets. but we have not pushed ourselves to spend quite as much as we have in the prior recovery. going back to what is fundamental is supporting the economy, it's now lower gas prices. all of the, i suspect, the longer it goes on the more it will show up in those numbers. >> then we shouldn't be at zero. we shouldn't be at zero. >> but wait a minute. if you look at the 5.5% unemployment. but that's not the only thing that you or me or janet yellen is looking at here. >> you can't have it both ways. but i'm amazed that there can be -- i guess everything in this country now -- people argue we're so far apart on every issue. but there are people that are just -- just cannot believe we are at zero still. and people think it's insanity to consider raising any time this year. >> and we're here in april and

all of us after friday's jobs number and after the dovish tone from janet yellen have pushed when they think that first rate increase is coming from june just vaguely on the edge of the table right now to september. and that's another six months. you only need a couple of surprise noisy readings that could push that further out. the problem is the fed has told us the policies are data dependent. but they no longer told us how to determine data. because they keep making adjustments to exactly where the goal posts are or what posts should be being used. >> i think one of the things the fed absolutely needs to see besides inflation is jobs and more jobs. right? it's all about the jobs. i think you're right. that it puts sort of off the table. that is one thing b we did not see last month. if we see that for the next two or three months. i'm not sure june is totally off

the table. >> i don't think they should go in june. >> i agree with you. >> i still think they will. see, i ascribe to them like maybe i'm just transferring that they know. they keep saying this stuff. they don't want to royal the markets. they're going to go slow. and being patient doesn't mean we're impatient. whatever they say. but they know we should go to june. >> when we get to june we'll know. >> there's an expression for when a government program is instituted during a crisis and then it becomes permanent. >> it's called the government program. >> milton freeman said they never die. >> the excuse of the financial crisis to suddenly occupy this huge part of our lives. where we don't even think an economy without training wheels can exist. there's so much a part of our lives. what happened to an economy that's just able to exist? >> not only do we have training

wheels, we got the kid on the bike in bubble wrap. >> when did that happen? social media? who do i blame for this? >> it's happened in the aftermath of the financial crisis. reverse the question. say if back in december 2008 when the fed cut rates to 1% you had been told in april 2015 interest rates are still at zero and now the fed's increased its balance sheet five times, what would the economy look like? what would unemployment look like? i'm sure you wouldn't say we'll be at 5.5% and north of 2,000 on the s&p 500. back in december 2008 those two numbers would have been viewed as irreconcilable with 0% interest rates. things a changed. >> but then again, at the depth of the crisis would you have signed on to equity prices here unemployment here. we're all still okay. maybe i would have said if they could somehow manage this then

go for it. >> so you would have gone for the -- how do you got that? >> there are people that think they need to be canonized and start with the process soon. the pope is going to announce yellen. and then there are other people who think they have totally just ruined everything. so i don't know. >> there's definitely risks of acting out versus not acting. the risk is that you act too soon. and the one thing that the fed worries about. not that we're taking sides here but the -- >> you take sides. >> that's probably my job, right? but one of the things that janet yellen worries about is if you raise the rates prematurely, you don't have a whole lot of room to move lower if you need to stimulate the economy. but at the same time if the problem becomes inflation, you do have the policy rates to raise from zero to 2% 4% whatever percent it needs to be. so the risks are asymmetric there. >> people say you need some dry powder for the next time the

economy slows. >> we have no dry powder. >> you don't. but you don't want to cause the slowing. you don't want to start the fire that you're able to put out. an arsonist can't take credit for putting out the fire. so you don't want to start the slowdown that you need the dry powder for. >> what the problem is the greatest slowdown in the last recession came from the financial crisis. which have root cause in extremely low interest rates for a very long time. and we're repeating that recipe on steroids. >> you don't think you're going to -- you're not predicting another footballinancial crisis because of what the fed has done. >> the fed is trying to push people out on the risk curve and people are embedding leverage. we probably won't see it this time. the faith has been put on the conference last week at the atlanta fed.

and, you know they are the takers. macrocredential regulation. and we had one speaker, former treasury secretary bob rubin. he said the reality is that there is no reality. and yet we are relying on that macrocredential regulation. >> wow. the right will think that's rich because they think he's the king of bailouts going back. yeah. anyhow. >> it wasn't all the job in 2008. >> no, but they back to the bonds and all of that. >> thank you both. you are on sort of opposing sides, i would say. nuanced. if you look at the nuances. >> i guess i was. >> remember haynes asked you about -- you were like the chief economist. not the chief economist. you were an economist and he asked about the stock price. haynes asked you what about that

stock price. you were like seriously you're asking me? you remember that? you got so mad. those were the good ole days. they were the bad ole days. >> they were the old days. coming up, from flat tires to busted shocks. potholes can cost you thousands of dollars. up next morgan brennan tells you where to file damage claims. and it's not your insurance company. plus 7:30 a.m. eastern time market watcher jim grant is here to talk about interest rates on the fed. he's on joe's side. plus we're going to talk about the jobs march report. full figured fashion brand lane bryant taking aim at victoria's secret in their new ad campaign. the ceo will join us on set.

welcome back to "squawk box." the spring thaw uncovering an eye-popping number of potholes. the harsh winter taking a major toll on roads across america. cnbc's morgan brennan joins us live from the street with more. good morning, morgan. >> good morning, scott. well, take a look over here. you can see some of these potholes. these are just several of the nearly 205,000 potholes that have been reported in new york city just since the start of the year. and i'll tell you, the problem goes far beyond just this area. after another cold wet winter, we've got roadways in the northeast and midwest that are just riddled with potholes.

they're costing state and local governments millions of dollars in infrastructure repairs and racking up billions of dollars in consumer expenses. aaa estimates potholes will cost drivers $6 billion in damages this season. that's a similar sum to 2014 and about 20% more than in 2010. according to the independent insurance agents and brokers of america, about half of all drivers experience pothole damage to their cars at some point over the last five years. costing u.s. consumers and insurance companies a combined $27 billion over that time period. and it's not just busted tiring and shocks we're talking about. drivers who file claims with this damage also run the risk of incurring higher premiums. they don't realize until their next renewal that the insurance company actually put a charge because they put that claim in because they treat it as an at-fault accident.

>> so if you're one of the many unfortunate drivers to have a bad situation, it's better to bypass insurance and file with the government agency responsible for that road's maintenance. if you can prove they knew about that pothole prior to you hitting it, you should get reimbursed. otherwise pay out of pocket. over to you. >> thanks so much morgan. driving around the city lately awful. >> it's bad everywhere. potholes are everywhere. temporary economic crises was described by robert higgs. and you've seen it. this is definitely happening in this day and age. this crisis has been used to make a permanent -- anyway. coming up -- that's in my book. i searched it in google. >> and you couldn't remember it. >> i couldn't remember his name. coming up news out of two

restaurant chains. the scoop and bojangles. and it's national beer day marking the anniversary that would legalize beer in 1933. oh, my god. i don't want to live in a world where it was illegal. and help hasten the end of prohibition. america's oldest brewery will join us at 8:40 a.m. national beer day. let's celebrate. so open an account with schwab. and when a market move affects, say a cloud computing stock you're holding, we can help you decide what to do. with tools that help you see how market activity is affecting your positions. so when the time comes to decide whether to scale in or scale out... you can make your move wherever you are. and start working on your next big idea. ♪ ♪

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welcome back. restaurant chain bojangles' hoping to raise up to $100 million in ipo. backed by equity firm advent. they have 368 franchise locations. were you around for that song? >> yeah. >> maybe we should play that. in other restaurant news u.s. burger chain johnny rockets is betting big on china. the 1950s-themed restaurant announcing plans to open 100 restaurants in china. they want to capitalize on strong demand for american brands in that country and a growing middle class population. all right.

up next market watcher jim grant is bringing together some of the most recognizable names for investing including jack vogel and bill gross. before it kicks off, he joins us on set to talk about it. and as we head to break -- there's the song you requested. take a look at the futures. actually looking better than they were an hour ago. implied open plus 55 on the dow after that big reversal yesterday. e financial noise financial noise financial noise financial noise

♪ welcome back to "squawk box." among the stocks front and center this morning, jpmorgan was upgraded at bernstein. the analyst says that the bank looks attractively valued and he points to a nearly 3% dividend yield. shares of axalta coding systems, buying 20 million shares of this

company from carlisle for $28 a share. and shire is rising day. shares of shire. the company agreeing with regulators for a path for getting clearance on an adhd drug to treat hyperactivity in adults. all right. a judge in new york city is giving a woman to serve divorce papers to her husband via facebook. after the couple separated, facebook was the only way she could communicate with her estranged husband. the attorney says the facebook connection worked. the husband has messaged her back to say he will sign the divorce papers. okay. wall street wall street still digesting the jobs report. jim grant joins us this morning ahead of his big spring conference at the plaza hotel this morning. good to have you on. >> thank you, michelle. awfully nice to be here. >> all star crowd. >> it is an all star crowd.

looking forward to hearing from those guys we mentioned. the jobs report. we've been having lots of debate whether or not it means the fed is going to push back an interest rate hike maybe even to next year. what do you think both on what they will do and what they should do? >> i think they will be as patient as possible. uttering the word patient -- >> flexible. >> flexible, yes. shallow. it is my friend who says we now have the vocal cord dollar or the verbal dollar no longer a thing. it is a state of mind in a schematics game. i expect this timetable will be pushed back. as to what they should do i'm all in favor of a free market in this most critical price call of interest rates. >> and how would you achieve that? >> oh by announcing that

henceforth it's going tobacco be a free market. >> in other words you would raise rates as soon as possible. >> i would allow the market to determine interest rates which was the m.o. for many decades before the qe. one of the really terrific fed chairman of yesteryear william martin gave a speech upon the liberation of interest rates from federal control, early '50s after the fed treasury accord. and he said that we have a free market because the manipulation of the interest rates by the government is not a part of american institutions. >> what's the harm jim? what's the harm of keeping interest rates down? >> well price come -- >> she says sarcastically. did you detect that? >> i read his stuff, so i know it's a soft wall for him. >> to make it a slightly harder pitch, ben bernanke, the famous

blogger said that interest rates are not determined by central banks but rather by the ebb and flow of business activity and by the real return on capital. and there is some truth in that assertion, but it is a little bit disingenuous in that in europe where they are implementing so-called qe german interest rates and ten-year moturety and sovereign bonds were down by more than 20 points on two consecutive days. >> extraordinary. >> so that means, says mr. bernanke it must mean that business activity in germany is throwing to a dead crawl. well, no. the stock market was up more than 20% in the first quarter. things are rather booming in germany. this is the fruit of heavy handed government manipulation of crisis. and i call it price control. but even that is not the full extent of federal intervention in the markets.

i think the previous guest was talking about this macroprudential stuff. but which they mean the suppression of enterprise in banking. the government is all about managing these big institutions. if the regulator showed up for work one day and the bank manager stayed home you would not notice a difference nowadays from the nature of the assets they hold to the level of liquidity to the level of capital to the so-called risk -- all these things now determine from on high which introduces a new kind of risk in our affairs. the risk of rigidity. >> the misallocation of capital, you know in the good old days to perform so poorly that you were driven into liquidation was pretty easy. now if you want to liquidate a company, you've got to put your

back into it. it's hard to fail. and if capital stays in a company that shouldn't survive, it's capital that isn't deployed to a much better enterprise. >> it is a much better settler than for example the level of junk bond yields. it's related to the junk bond yields this business of government intervention. let me try to be a little bit more clear. if companies can't fail that means that somebody else can't start. you're looking at a petrified forest rather than dynamic capitalism. that was the characteristic. >> if you can't fire anyone in europe, you can't fire anyone because you're stuck with them forever. were you going to say something else or can i ask a question? >> please. >> is the negative effect of what the fed has done already here or is it in the future? was it a -- there are most people right now, they would think -- they would disagree very strongly that the fed didn't save us.

that the fed didn't help us manage the financial crisis. and without what they did, we could be in a much worse place right now. so it's a big stretch to think they've actually capped our growth at 2% by what they did. >> both may be true by the way. >> would you argue that it allowed businesses to stay short-term and not make the hard decisions about -- do they just play around with zero money? >> we don't know so we can't be dogmatic. there was a depression in the early '20s in which the fed raised interest rates and there was nothing like stimulus. the concept of the macroeconomy has had not been invented. it lasted top to bottom 18 months. as it ended, the there were labor shortages in detroit. that was another era, but that to me is -- that was the last -- >> we think that government decisions totally exacerbated. i mean that's what i've been told. >> he's talking about -- he's written a book called "the

forgotten depression" which is later than the one we talk about all the time. >> so i happen to have great faith in the restorative mechanism. people seeking their own best interests through enterprise. so i think that the burden of proof ought to be on those who contend that the government through the success of interventions has done us net good. yeah. so whether the cost is ahead of us or behind us or with us. and i think it's with us to a degree. and it being with us would, for example, encompass those millions of people who are out of the labor force more or less permanently. there's been a kind of a pall over the -- that's one cost. i think the perspective cost is the unmasking of the misallocations of capital that will have come about through the

levitation of asset prices. real estate among other things. we don't talk about real estate as much as we should because it's not traded every day. >> that might be ahead of us you mean. living with negative effects. >> we have many positive effects and they're the ones of people cheering. stock market is at an all time. >> and you know what? even after it's settled, people are going to be on both sides arguing one side or the other. >> both things can be right. if the fed did not intervene, we could be much worse off. but at the same time if the fed stays too long, therein lies the potential issue. >> you were talking earlier about the -- >> that doesn't mean they shouldn't have gotten in in the first place. >> i was talking about robert higgs. >> yeah. the permanent crisis.

well another name for that is kind of the office of homeland security. right? >> right. >> so a friend of mine who is a good value investor called up a few weeks after 9/11. and said whenever i die, the tsa will still be in business. and it will be. so now we have the office of financial research and we have the financial stability oversight council. we have the dodd-frank stress test, the comprehensive analysis of review. >> don't you feel better? >> and the large institutions supervision coordinating committee. all of these are outgrowths of dodd-frank and they will be with us more or less forever. >> those people have jobs. be happy. >> they're the ones with jobs. >> but the fed has become a permanent. they're here. and part of my life every day.

>> have a great conference. >> thanks. >> good to see you. >> i'm not angel. >> that's what i'm going to read right now. >> ki show you my tattoo? >> lane bryant celebrating women of all shapes and sizes. the ad is called i'm no angel. the company's ceo joins us next.

i care deeply about the gulf. i grew up in louisiana. i went to school here. i've been with bp ever since. today, i lead a team that sets our global safety standards. after the spill we made two commitments. to help the gulf recover and become a safer company. we've worked hard to honor both. bp has spent nearly 28 billion dollars so far to help the gulf economy and environment. and five years of research shows that the gulf is coming back faster than predicted. we've toughened safety standards too. including enhanced training... and 24/7 on shore monitoring of our wells drilling in the gulf. and everyone has the power to stop a job at any time if they consider it unsafe. what happened here five years ago changed us. i'm proud of the progress we've made

both in the gulf and inside bp.

one word. >> sexy. >> our next campaign. >> lane bryant the country's largest plus size retailer has a new campaign dubbed i'm no angel. an attempt to appeal to the consumer and gain more of the plus size market. linda hesley is the ceo of lane bryant and ashley grahams is a model in the campaign. great to have you both here. >> thank you.

>> do you cringe at the plus size thing at this point or no? >> what do you mean by cringe at the plus size? >> do you mind when people say plus size? >> i feel we should lead with fashion, not size. >> that's my point. >> it's about embracing who you are. >> it seems outdated based on what the typical american woman is. >> given the demographic stats, we would agree. it's about embracing who you are and being proud of that. >> this new campaign it's a good shot at victoria's secret. >> well, it wasn't our intention to clip the wings of any brand. and we're not trying to throw shade. >> it's a good shot though. >> the ad's great. >> she looks hot. >> you do. >> and it's about the girls. we wanted to celebrate these beautiful women who are beautiful, sexy and hot. >> thank you. >> you're welcome. >> it's okay so they you're clipping their wings. it's strong. you are going to war here. >> the ads are saying what you

don't want to say here. >> we're saying arguably the definition of beauty defined by an angel that reflects perfection is unattainable for most of us. what we're saying it's about being more than that. it's about embracing that. >> how big is the lingerie market, do you think? >> well the lingerie part of our business is very significant. and the numbers are hard to get on the total market. victoria's secrets is the number one player in total. but our -- what we respect is a very specialized portion of the market. in terms of the sizes that we offer. >> i mean we always talk about companies should not only just, you know employ people but they should do good for society. i think this qualifies. because, you know, i have a daughter. and if she were to try to strive for victoria's secrets type everything, weight height everything. what if you fall short? it's like it's a weird -- and

it's been talked about in society a lot. we are setting some weird expectations by that. >> that's what this campaign is for. to let women and girls know no body is perfect. you are perfect. whatever you have is what you are. that's the perfection. >> you can see from the eating disorders and all the things high school girls go through, you can see it's partly reflection from this. >> and body shaming. not motivating. >> would you go as far, there's talk in europe about dictating how much models can weigh. literally weigh-ins. >> honestly i haven't tapped into that whole realm. i think that honestly we should just have sample sizes for everybody. i think that runways should have they can have a size 2 and a size 14. i'd love to do runway but they haven't opened up that door for plus size models. so hello, i'm here. >> you were in the sports illustrated swim suit. >> i was. >> that's opening a door that hadn't been opened in the past. >> a huge door. it was a complete honor and

amazing. it got a great buzz. i was happy to be the poster girl for it. >> you think it will open the doors you really want to have opened? >> oh, yeah. i agree 100% with what it's doing. i plan on being on the cover of sports illustrated next year. watch out. >> i love your raw ambition. it's fantastic. >> thank you very much. >> we hope more retailers get behind what we're trying to do and what we're trying to show. which is be more inexclusive about what we represent. >> business is good overall? >> business is good. and as you pointed out, it's great when you have good business to be done. but it's really good when a business can do good. that's what we feel strongly about. >> very good. we'll stop on that. coming up a special sneak peek of tonight's episodes of "secret lives of the super rich" including unique trivia to john travolta. robert franks takes us behind the scenes next.

tonight there's a new episode of cnbc's "secret lives of the super rich." our own robert frank is here to tell us how for just $25 million you can find nirvana. how? >> well who said the spiritual and material -- we'll tell you. who said the spiritual and material can't exist when you're looking for the road to enlightenment. you can start on south ocean boulevard just south of palm

beach. take a look. >> welcome to nirvana. $25 million ocean front sanctuary. from the outside it's a massive mediterranean villa. inside it's a 12,000 square foot zen inspired oasis. it's versailles meets the taj mahal mahal. what is this room? >> well, i can't tell you all the uses for it on camera. but actually this particular dance floor was designed by the same designer that did "saturday night fever" the film. >> that's right. the family hired the same guy that did the "saturday night fever" movie set to design an exact replica here at nirvana. >> the house also has a meditation garden a buddhist prayer room and all the doors were blessed by monks. this is an unusual house. we see how the increasingly

international wealth is changing the real estate. the outside looking palm beach. inside it's a buddhist you know -- >> a disco. >> exactly. and it is an exact replica. when they turn on all the lights, it is made by the same guy who designed the set for "saturday night fever". >> that is fantastic. >> it's really designed by that person? >> the same guy. and the guy, his father lived in the 1970s when it came out and became obsessed with the movie. he said if i ever make it i'm making an exact replica of this dance floor. you've got palm beach and the manalapan. >> you were in the house? >> yeah. beautiful. very interesting family. again, indian family. made their money in health care. one of those great american stories. >> it looked -- how big was the piece of property? i mean you don't get a lot there.

but looked like the house went up to the edge of the property almost. >> no no. i think it's about a four acre property. >> oh it is? because 25 mil, it shouldn't be on an acre. >> you've got property in the front. plus you can see the intercoastal on one side where they have a yacht dock. and then they have the ocean. so it's water to water. >> so they have enough property to go from water to water. >> yes. which is really really priceless in that area. that's why it's so much money. >> so the yacht then you can leave the boat there and go around and go out into the -- >> so it's a lot of waterfront. that area is on fire right now. paul jones just bought a place, $71 million last week. we're just seeing no end to prices down there. >> that's north of palm beach. >> south. and years ago, it's rare to see a price like this in man arc lapan, but now they're getting it. >> there was a chicago bulls jersey on the wall. >> also his second passion after "saturday night fever" is

chicago bulls. >> really? >> they had scottie pippen jordan, all of them signed jerseys on the wall. >> that whole area from jupiter all the way to -- basically all the way down to miami now. you've got people moving north from miami because of the traffic. it's moving all the way up the coast. crazy prices. >> thank you. >> thank you guys. >> robert frank. tune in tonight. the episode of "secret lives of the super rich." 10:00 p.m. eastern and pacific. >> taxes too. >> you're showing all of them. >> it's not secret. >> it was secret before you showed them. >> exactly. heretofore. >> that would be a great title. coming up squawk master mohamed el-erian. but before break, check out

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rand paul throwing his hat in the ring. but does the senator from kentucky have a shot at winning the overall republican nomination? coming up, we ask one of his advisers if he's the right man for the job. plus developing this morning. fedex exploding to the international delivery scene. they're looking to buy tnt. and happy national beer day. we celebrate the day and talk the booming craft beer business with the coo of the nation's oldest brewery. the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ live from the most powerful city in the world, new york, this is "squawk box." >> welcome back. eric clapton just turned 70 the other day. >> really? wow. make mes feel old.

>> don't worry about it. 70 is not the end of the world. >> it's the new 50. >> welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc first in business worldwide. i'm joe kernen along with scott wapner and michelle caruso-cabrera. andrew and becky are off today. just 90 minutes now from the opening bell on wall street. the futures are still up. up about 43 points. weird session yesterday. looked like it was going to be a little ragged. down 135. about two hours after the open was up 135. bill dudley william dudley saying -- >> i think your point, too, about the dollar -- >> weakness that helped. >> later in the day, though you may have noticed that the euro dropped like a stone close to the close. it's a weird move. >> yeah. >> we have an intraday chart? the dollar yesterday was as you said a pretty decent part of that story too. >> definitely. you remember when oil was going down. the markets were having trouble. higher oil prices and a weaker

dollar there. look at that move in the afternoon yesterday on the euro. it just falls off a cliff in the afternoon. >> second time in as many months where you see huge moves in currencies which are supposed to be incredibly liquid markets. in theory a move like that doesn't necessarily happen without some kind of news. like the fed announces, and bam. >> i think that sentiment in the currency market is still on the fact that the euro is going to go lower so when it hits certain levels, i think the biggest players and money leans hard on it. >> it needs to fall off a cliff around june 19th. >> when you get on the plane or a week before you get on the plane so it will ripple through? >> i mean you know until i do the conversion it won't matter. >> are you going? >> yeah eventually. this deal you're going to talk about, scott i'm trying to figure out more about it. it's like a $3 premium. was it already sort of out or something? check it out. >> being acquired by the permira

funds. and pension plan investment board. the deal is valued at $5.3 billion. >> close at 48 and change. so it's up $2. that's where it's being acquired. i don't know. just weird. whether it was telegraphed or what went on. i don't know. >> and is it weird that a pension plan is buying the company out? >> i don't know about that. informatica is a cool name. hope they keep it. >> easier to read than the other one which i blasted. i don't even remember. >> also making headlines at this hour fedex buying tnt express for $4.8 billion. that deal would give fedex access to their network. and ceo of fedex fred smith will

join "squawk on the street" at 9:00 a.m. eastern time. reaching an eight-year high according to the all-america survey. more findings from steve leisman in a bit. we're also watching oil prices today. iranian officials visiting beijing to push for more crude sales. meantime goldman sachs also getting attention. saying prices need to remain low for months to slow u.s. oil output. >> the big sports story of the morning, of course duke beating wisconsin 68-63 to take home the school's fifth ncaa men's basketball title. we're joined now by one of the world's biggest duke fans. chief washington correspondent jon harwood. he's in kentucky today. is that by coincidence? they lost the other day. rand paul is there. that's why you're there. >> it's also my hometown. he's going to announce his

candidacy in louisville in my hometown where i was born. rand paul brings some significant strengths to this race. in particular the base he inherits substantially from his father who ran for president multiple times. first of wall he's got a chance a bedside manner. he is not shown a great ability to connect one on one individually with voters on this stuff. he can be prickly in interviews in an interview is few months ago when he shushed her on television. secondly he's got to show he can raise the kind of money to be more than a niche candidate to really break out and compete at the top tier with people like jeb bush. and finally he's got to overcome the skepticism of republican foreign policy hawk. he has a much more restrained view. already those hawks are out with an ad this morning attacking rand paul. take a listen. >> rand paul supports obama's

negotiations with iran. and he doesn't understand the threat. >> you know it's ridiculous to think that they're a threat to our national security. >> rand paul is wrong and dangerous. tell him to stop siding with obama. because even one iranian bomb would be a disaster. >> of course rand paul will have a chance to address those fears when he takes that stage about four hours from now. has that one shining moment, if you know what i mean, guys. >> yes. we do, in fact. referring to last night's victory by the duke blue devils. >> scott was -- you were not like duke again. >> john knows. i'm from maryland. i mean i'm a maryland guy. i like the terps. >> yeah. tough for you then. >> you can't be a maryland fan and duke fan. we've talked about it before. >> actually no scott. i am both a maryland fan and a duke fan. i was a maryland fan before i

was a duke fan because i grew up in maryland too. but, you know at some point you've got to you know, prioritize your emotions. >> i will say this. i have great respect and i actually like coach k a lot. i do. i do. >> you should have heard what he was saying about duke in the commercial break. >> i thought i would be more sort of feel more of a feeling of revulsion because of you, john, with duke. but i don't. you've been pretty classy with this. >> thank you. >> you haven't really thrown it around. >> coach k is pretty conservative politically. >> oh, he is? there's hope for you then. >> you said the magic word. >> that was part of the guide. you know dean smith, the great late north carolina coach leaned left and mike krzyzewski leaned right, still does. >> but dean smith leaned left back in the '60s when there

needed to be some left leaning. you know? now it's -- i don't know. totally different time to be on the left. i was on the left in fact back then. anyway thanks john. joining us now with more on senator paul's announcement, steven moore heritage foundation distinguished fellow for the project for economic growth. you know what i mean. there was a time when the left -- it was awhile ago, but there was a time it all made sense to me. not so much today. >> it's not your father's democratic party anymore. democrats have moved way, way, way to the left. >> there was a time a lot needed to be accomplished. anyway. this is weird. you've got ted cruz with the religious conservatives. rand paul is almost more of a libertarian. he wants government out of everything, doesn't he? it's weird all the little pockets in the republican party. because this is different a different niche than even ted

cruz. >> it is. let me correct one quick thing. i have been advising rand paul but i've been talking to a lot of candidates. i'm not officially with this campaign. i call rand paul the libertarian plus. he obviously has this libertarian wing of the party which is significant. maybe 20% to 25% of republican voters. but what he does which is so significant for republicans is he expands that base. and republicans can't win without an expanded base as they learned in 2008 and 2012. and he appeals not just the harder core libertarian who is want them out of the courtroom and bedroom, but he's also gone to the inner cities. he hasn't appealed to minorities. and where he is amazing and has real appeal is with young people. the kind of young voters who voted for barack obama. you know, you probably know this story. he was at the campus of berkeley. it doesn't get more left wing

than that. got a standing ovation because of his stance on the nsa and invasion of privacies by government. >> he's like his dad in certain ways. and his dad had a lot of young ones too. >> an army of young people. i remember when his dad was running. it'd be a sunday afternoon i was watching a football game and there'd be a knock on the door with young people saying do you have time to talk about rand paul. i never had young people ska sa iing do i have time to talk about mitt romney. he does have this army of volunteers. i would disagree with one thing john harwood said. i think rand paul is going to have plenty of money. he has this entire network that's been handed to him. it's not as big as jeb bush's network, but it is a family network that is extensive. i think he'll have plenty of money. >> you've got tentacles all through the republican party, stephen, and a good feel for everything. >> yeah. >> i know you saw probably because i -- it made a huge impact on me. the piece in the journal. >> sure.

>> looking at the demographics of what it's going to take to win. because the democrats would have won the last three our four elections given where demographics are right now with minority, the rise of minorities. hispanics, gay voters et cetera. the coalition republicans need to put together it's almost like you have to build some type of winning percentage of the popular vote. and in the past the argument is moderates haven't won so go right of there. but i don't know if a right-leaning person that's too far right can do it at this point. could rand paul do it or do you need jeb bush? >> i think rand paul sh definitely going to be one of the last two or three men standing. or women for that matter. in other words, i think he's going to have a lot of durability in this race. the question for paul is can he take that base his father had and continue to expand that. and that's what he's doing. you know he actually had an amendment to increase the

national spending on the budget. he wanted to cut the domestic programs to pay for it. he's pro life. he is anti-abortion, pro life which is important in terms of republicans. >> weird for libertarian. >> the latino voters and asian voters that should be voting republican, haven't been for the last cycles. he should be appealing to them. he went to detroit and said what have democrats done for you. i'm going to bring enterprise and clean up the streets. i'm going to bring jobs here. that's a message every republican should be saying in a resounding way. >> pro life. that's a litmus test to a lot of people, isn't it? do pro life people -- do pro life candidates expect at some point expect to roll back roe v. wade? and that opens up the argument that the left will rub all over themselves, right? >> i'm advising on economics.

>> you know what i mean. social issues are important in that they'll be used by -- >> they are. i believe it's a pro life country for the most part. outside of new york and california, most americans are pro life. but i think that kind of economic message combined with keeping the government, you know out of your individual liberties with respect -- don't underscore how angry people are about the irs, the nsa, these agencies that are -- >> how about same-sex marriage with rand paul. you would think the government would be hands off on imposing its morality on people too. is he -- >> i have to confess. i've never talked to him about that issue. i know one thing. he's going to be in favor of some radical simplification of the tax system. he's going to have the most ambitious downsizing of government agenda of any of the other candidates other than maybe ted cruz.

on the economic limited government issues he's going to be highly appealing. but there have been several. ted cruz and people like scott walker have also been sounding that message. my point has been i look at this field of the ten candidates or so that are running. every candidate who's running in this election cycle is better than any of them that ran in 2012. >> well, yeah. >> that's not a high bar to hop. >> to are and great primary campaign and win the nomination and then have moved so far away from the mainstream you lose. then you get what we just had for six years. >> you can't get much more left than hillary clinton and elizabeth warren. >> right. all right. thanks. see ya. >> see you guys. up next it's the latest cnbc all-america survey. the details on what americans are actually doing with their money they're saving thanks to lower gas prices. also where do they see prices at the pump down the road. first as we head to break, a look at gasoline prices this morning. there you go.

down. $1.83 down slightly. we'll be back in a moment on "squawk." financial noise financial noise financial noise

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welcome back to "squawk box." viacom shares are under pressure this morning. the company announcing a restructuring. it will cut jobs abandon some acquired titles and reorganize three of its groups into two new organizations. stock is off more than 1%. viacom is halting its $20 million share buyback program as a result of all this. so what are americans doing sw the windfall from the lower gas prices? steve leisman has more in the all-america survey. >> this is why we ask questions twice or three times in a row. because the answers change. this is a big change. i want to show you first when we asked people what are you doing with the extra money you get from lower gas prices. back in december when we first asked this question 61% said they were doing nothing. and that's now changed to 42%. so they're not doing nothing with it anymore. when you see the changes that

are going to come up in the different categories it's not from one to another. it's from doing nothing to something. let me show you what the answers were. paying down debt. one in four americans say they are paying down debt with that windfall from lower gas prices. now, we did have bump up in spending. 17% say they're spending. that compares with 8% back in december. you can see where that comes from. not from one category or the other. but from those that did nothing to now doing something. that makes sense when you think about it. the story was what is this extra money and then it's there after another month so they finally decide to deploy it. savings bumped up. let's look at the categories of who is doing what here. on the doing nothing, people 50 and older are likely to do nothing. paying down debt the middle class. $50,000 to $75,000 income.

spending more. professionals and managers. and saving more ages 18 to 34. and then finally driving more blue collar workers ages 18 to 34. the entire survey on cnbc.com. i'll be back in the 10:00 hour with what americans know and surprisingly don't know about the appreciation of the dollar. guys? >> we're looking forward to that. going to be great. >> yeah. it'll be fun. coming up -- yes? >> please read. >> i will. when mohamed el-erian is not watching cnbc he's probably watching the mets. yes. we will ask him about both the mets and the markets in just a bit. maybe about the jets too. it'll be jets season again soon. plus it's national beer day. let's drink in some of the staggering stats about our love

of beer. craft sales up 18% last year. the overall beer market is over $100 billion. here to help us celebrate, the coo of the oldest brewery in the country. not sure who that is? it's not budweiser. it's not miller. stay tuned.

new developments in the

ongoing controversy over allegations of gang rape at the university of virginia. the now discredited "rolling stone" article which was officially retracted yesterday. now the fraternity at the center of the controversy is planning legal action. in a statement, the fraternity says its members were ostracized and its house was vandalized. on sunday the columbia school of journalism released a report blasting the "rolling stone" story for failures in reporting and editing. >> we don't like litigious societies. >> would you be happy if you were part of that fraternity? >> no. but in this case do it. go for it completely. wouldn't you? actually, i shouldn't be treading into this. but that was an inexcusable breach. >> and when you read all of the details about what they agree to with the primary person -- >> the story was too good to double check. >> the columbia review was pretty scathing. >> when there are damages to

that extent maybe litigation should happen. there are times when maybe it rises to the level. you're not going to say? were you in a frat? >> no i was going to read -- >> i was in a frat. >> so was i. i wasn't. i would never have rushed. i went to some of their parties. in colorado in the '70s no way. >> you didn't want to be part of it but you wanted to go to the parties? >> yes. that's exactly right. >> that says a lot about you. coming up mohamed el-erian joins us to talk fed, the jobs data and what to expect this earnings season. >> why does that surprise you? >> yeah, exactly. >> this conversation is over. plus street reaction to the -- were you in a sorority.

>> no. there weren't any. >> reaction to the deal between fedex and tnt. see how i'm looking at you and reading the prompter. >> that's amazing. >> what does it mean for rivals like u.p.s.? but first check out shares of clorox. trading at levels not seen in over 40 years. take a look at equity futures. after that big reversal one day ago, looks like we'll rebound. dow plus 48.

welcome back to "squawk box." let's look at some of the stocks in the news this morning. software company informatica to buy permira for $48.75 per share in cash. >> on march 20th reuters

reported others were considering a bid. i don't know whether you were reporting on that. then also citing sources, reuters reported that advent permira were also considering a bid for -- >> so the stock had rallied already in anticipation of some kind of deal. >> so this was kind of out there. >> i still think it's interesting a pension plan acting as a private equity firm directly. normally they invest in a private equity firm. axalta berkshire buying 20% from the affiliates of the carlisle group. general motors shares are lower in premarket trading. canada is selling its remaining stake in the automaker to goldman sachs for an undisclosed amount. among the other big movers

this morning. ocular's drug missed in the main study. clovis getting a breakthrough today. and drug maker diax offering 7 million shares. fedex buying tnt express for $8 billion. here with us now is managing director and senior analyst at avondale partners. good morning. >> welcome. >> deal make sense to you? zblit makes >> it makes all kinds of sense. u.p.s. tried to buy this company for $6.7 billion. for a 40% lower price, fedex is going to buy them and i think it's going to be successful. eu said it gave u.p.s. too much of pricing power. and u.p.s. actually ironically tried to sell off bits and pieces to fedex. and fedex said we're not

interested in helping you out here. u.p.s. had to pay a breakup fee at their failure to buy this property. fedex presence isn't as deep abroad as u.p.s. i think they'll be successful with this deal. >> no regulatory issues, then the likes of which u.p.s. had, you clearly think. >> yeah. and ironically, fedex's refusal to help break up that deal. and now fast forward the tape a few years. you'll be able to buy all the company for 40% less than u.p.s. was willing to pay app and not sell any pieces off. >> where were you on fedex stock for news of this deal broke. >> i had it rated buy. would discontinue that outlook. fedex has been good historically as buying companies. they expanded and blew into fedex ground. they bought american freightway's vikings and produced the largest lcl carrier

in the world. fedex is really good at buying fixer uppers and doing exactly that. fixing them up. and this is definitely a fixer upper. >> what about u.p.s.? where are we on u.p.s. and what do they do now? >> u.p.s. i continued really the entire time it's been public i've had it rated whoeld or sell. it's a company that really just is not nearly as dynamic or entrepreneurial as fedex. think about it. it became public at $75 a share in the fall of 1999. we're in the mid-90s today. not a whole lot of price appreciation in the stock. >> right. it's one thing sort of to lose a deal and then when you lose the deal to your major competitor talk about hurting a lot worse. >> yeah. they had to pay a breakup fee which is even worse. i mean many people have talked about tnt itself. no pun intended here that explosive of a company.

it hasn't -- profit has been anything but good. it's been lackluster, losing money in many quarters. revenue growth really hasn't been there. but when fed exex takes over it could be dynamite. >> thank you. fred smith on in an hour from now. 14 games in the major leagues yesterday as baseball season got into full swing. the new york mets making an impressive debut beating the nationals 3-1. you know this guy. bartolo colon had eight strikeouts and one walk in six innings. are you a mets fan? >> no. the nationals i keep an eye on. huge expectations this year. >> you do. that's right. in cincinnati, the 96th annual opening day parade was held. thousands of people line this streets. they played baseball president it wasn't the greatest weather

for opening day, but they tied it up in the top of the ninth. but the bottom of the -- bottom of the eighth, reds won 5-2. and we can all talk about this because someone yesterday had the nerve on a radio interview to tell me that the national league is behind the times because of the designated hitter. and i had to read him the riot act in terms of managers and strategy and knowing when to pinch hit. knowing when to put it -- do we just have everyone just big guys that can hit, they don't even field. just have nine guys? have two teams. have nine guys that hit, nine guys that play the field and pitch. why not do it that way? >> it is lame when the pitcher hits, don't you think? >> no. >> you like it? >> yes, i do. anyway. i take the national league any day compared to the a.l. joining us now, longtime mets

fan mohamed el-erian. would you bring the dh to -- what's that? oh, he's got the mets hat. you think we need a dh in the n.l.? >> a big no. >> keep your orange baseballs and your charlie finley faux offense. it's ryidiculousridiculous. why not make it illegal to pitch over 50 miles an hour. let everyone get a hit. stupid. >> please don't bring the dh into the national league. >> thank you. >> i totally agree with you. the strategy the thinking. i would like the american league to go back to real baseball. >> me too. hits runs steals everything else. no question. all right, mohamed. unfortunately that's the last thing we're going to agree on. i'll tell you what sort of got me. you talk about the employment report it did indicate the fed could delay, push it out from june, and it's also going to go

slow once it does start. and you figure that probably nailed it on friday that that's going to be the situation. right? >> yeah. i think that what the fed is likely to do which is different from what they should do what they're likely to do is move at the september meeting. and they're going to do this in the context of indicating very strongly that it's going to be a -- to use dudley's word -- a relatively shallow path that is going to be conditional and that the terminal point will be lower than historical average. so they're going to try to keep the market focused on the journey and stop the market from going to the terminal value that historically has been much higher than where they end up. that's what they're likely to do. what they should do is something different. right? what they should do is be a little bit less timid and realize the main risk to the economy comes from mounting financial imbalances that could threaten instability down the road. >> here's the next thing. the thing that irritates me.

this has been something about our relationship for awhile. you say the report is a further reminder of how much more the u.s. economy could have been doing if it wasn't for the do little congress that doesn't do infrastructure spending more responsive fiscal policy. so give all the activism we've had with the fed and with all this other stuff and not pro-growth stuff, you want more cainsian stuff and did more stuff that the president proposed. >> you and i are on the same wavelength that we've had too much central bank activism. not just here but around the world. >> dig a hole and fill it back up? do the stuff that we know? >> little shovels. >> little shovels. employ a lot of people to dig the holes and fill them back up. >> you talked about the potholes. the infrastructure in this

country undermines private sector activity. >> what about all the uncertainty from the stuff we passed, obamacare and regulations that are holding back business activity? do you think the private sector is really being greased in terms of tax reform and everything else? wouldn't that be better than growing government even more? >> so wonderful to be with you. there's a difference between no government, smart government, and silly government. silly government and no government doesn't help. what we're looking for is smart government. >> that's an oxy moron. >> we've had a do nothing congress. they won't do things. they've stopped doing things. >> how do you know nay haven't stopped from doing some really asinine things. >> let me go down the list. immigration reform corporate tax reform. >> what about the list of all the things they didn't do? i mean under president obama's first term they did massive

amounts of legislation. you'd have to go back to fdr to see such a legislative history. health care reform. that was tremendous. we got yet another round of financial reform. above and beyond what george w. bush had already done. not to mention the stimulus money. not to mention complete revamping of education spending in what he calls education reform, this president. lot done and this congress got a lot done and this is what we've got to show for it. >> michelle let me give you one fact. the basic element of economic governance is the passing of a budget every year. okay? that's the basic element of economic governance. we haven't had an active budget for over five years. >> because of harry reid. >> that is an issue. that the congress can't even totally get on the basic element of governance. >> michelle said it. >> thanks to the democrats. >> right? >> he can't disagree so he can't say anything. >> it's two parties that are being pulled further and further apart by what's happening to the

extreme of their party. you had that talk about the tea party earlier on. that's what's happening. i think it's a real issue. because this is a country on the verge of liftoff. it has tremendous entrepreneurialism lots of cash sitting on the sideline. there's a ton of innovations going from being firm specific going macro. and if we can unleash all this it will make a huge difference. most importantly for the markets, it would validate the asset prices. >> speaking of having cash on the sidelines, why are you personally in mostly cash? i think i read that. is that true? >> i've got a very barbell strategy. and it's similar to michelle saying a pension fund is now going to private equity directly. so cash and then high risk more liquid exposures to start up hedge funds. why? the most heavily trafficked part of the risk return is the public

markets. why? because the fed has been pushing everybody into the public markets. pushing up asset prices. so if you look at long-term valuation, it makes more sense to become more barbelled and reduce your exposure to the most heavily trafficked and most artificially lifted asset prices. that's why there's barbelled more cash and more up here in terms of start-ups, hedge funds. that's what a lot of investors are starting to do by the way. >> but as far as your overall view of valuations and things for quite a while you've thought there's ban wedge between fundamentals from the economy and where the market is in terms of valuation based on the accommodative fed. it's just gotten more so in your view, i guess. >> yeah, the market is in love with the central bank trade because it has paid off. yesterday -- perfect example. you said it earlier. we started down 135 points.

why? because we were worried about the economy. bill dudley says the fed is going to be accommodating, went up 135 points. so we are in the midst of the qe central bank trade. it will be good as long as it's last. it reminds me a bit of '07 and '08. saying there's a turn coming but i'm confident that i can get out as i see the turn. i'm not so confident i will see the turn coming. turns happen quite quickly. we are in the midst of this central bank trade. it has been incredibly filling. if you're going to play it right now, play it abroad where central banks are much more active than the united states. play for the currency and through relative beta exposures opposed to outright beta exposures. >> all right, mohamed, thank you. your two best friends are me and michelle. that's opposites attract, isn't it? >> he likes me too.

>> it's weird that you're closest to the two of us and yet we're so far apart on philosophy. >> except the national league and the designated hitter. >> right. exactly. >> he agrees with you. >> and i feel your pain with the jets and you feel my pain with the bungels. thank you. >> he agrees with you on the fed. that's what you were saying yesterday about the stones. >> i don't want to agree with people though. still to come -- hey, the truth. it's important. jim cramer from the stock exchange coming up next. it's national beer day. today we celebrate beer being legal to sell buy, and of course drink. the man running the nation's oldest brewery joins us after the break.

i care deeply about the gulf. i grew up in louisiana. i went to school here. i've been with bp ever since. today, i lead a team that sets our global safety standards. after the spill we made two commitments. to help the gulf recover and become a safer company. we've worked hard to honor both. bp has spent nearly 28 billion dollars so far to help the gulf economy and environment. and five years of research shows that the gulf is coming back faster than predicted. we've toughened safety standards too. including enhanced training... and 24/7 on shore monitoring of our wells drilling in the gulf. and everyone has the power to stop a job at any time if they consider it unsafe.

what happened here five years ago changed us. i'm proud of the progress we've made both in the gulf and inside bp.

♪ all right. it's national beer day and we are celebrating with america's oldest brewery. yuengling just last week the brewer topped sam adams as the country's top craft brewer. joining us now is yuengling's chief operating officer. david, welcome. thanks for sending along the beer as well. >> thank you. you're quite welcome. it's great to be here. >> still independent as well which is saying something in this day and age.

>> it is. we're now in our 186th year of operation. we're family owned and operating which is very unusual. once you get past three generations, it's very difficult as you know to continue. but the current president dick yuengling is actually the fifth generation of father/son. he has daughters in the wings working in the company and ready to take over for the sixth generation. >> can you stay that way? i mean, as people are looking to consolidate, as you have two major global brands driving most of the action. >> it's difficult. but i think there's a passion and a history and authenticity at yuengling they're in it for the beer. we've gone through very very difficult time in our 186 years of operation. but right now it's about legacy it's about continuation it's about giving the next generation and maybe the seventh generation an opportunity. dick is focused on that. >> it's a great story, but if i had to bet money, i would bet that many many have come calling trying to buy this brand. the brazilians were they there?

i'm sure. did they come looking? >> they all do. in fact, we have an inside joke at the brewery. any time a limousine pulls up, we wake up and people think the brewery is for sale again. >> what's the signature of yuengling? you're trying to stand out in a craft market. it's one of the reasons that a lot of the big boys have been buying a lot of the big beers. how do you set yourself apart? what is the signature of this beer? >> well i think first and foremost, we believe we make great products. we have a diversified portfolio. we offer a variety for every consumer type out there. we embody the family owned company. we've been around for 186 years as i mentioned. you know the authenticity the legacy is there. i think that's important to people today. we're american owned and family operated. it's very important. it's a part of our dna.

you know with the combination of having good products and being family owns we think it's the right combination for continued success. >> seems like brown spirits have certainly stolen some of the thunder from beer bourbon and the like. we've seen maybe some of the results show that on wall street. >> it's been a roller coaster ride. i mean you know going back when i started with dick almost 25 years ago, it was a challenging time, the brewery was struggling to survive, and dick made a lot of commitments to keep that place alive. we're going through best of times now but over 186 years of family ownership, most probably more lean than good. but it's a competitive landscape, no question. it's not only the spirits industry, the wine industry, but a lot of consumer choices today, whether waters, juices sweet drinks teas. it's a competitive landscape. >> huge fluctuation, commodity costs, energy prices, et cetera. how do you handle that?

>> it is a challenge. certainly, you know, as you get bigger you have more scale, you can try to control some cost but was for start-ups, that's a daunting challenge for them. getting access to raw materials making sure that they can afford it, it's a capital intensive business if you want to continue to grow and get bigger outside your local market. >> which you've been doing just fine, for more than 100 years. >> well, we have. but you know most of our business is local. we've been a pennsylvania-based company for since our inception and most of our volume is sold in the small geography in the east coast. we are in 17 states. there's an opportunity to get bigger but we're content and happy with our regional footprint. >> thanks for sending summer wheat. my favorite. we have a few more coming. thank you. >> when we return jim cramer from the new york stock exchange. then tomorrow on "squawk box," market master russ koesterich,

the market the fed, what he's expecting the earnings season. grand slam mast somewhere course developer, gary player. ben koffman, founder and ceo of quirky will be our guest. we'll be right back today.

new york stock exchange. jim cramer joins us now. while you were watching the markets yesterday, you were pretty i guess you sort of saw that coming that it probably wasn't going to end sharply lower. but did you feel that it was the dollar weakening. >> yes. >> why is that such a -- why is that a big help for us? why does that turn things around. >> i tell you, we're going into earnings season and analysts haven't cut their numbers yet ahead of what are we going to see are just huge swing because the dollar so anything that modulates that look remember only about -- 30% of the analysts cut number as head of international companies. so anything that indicates the dollar could go a little bit lower makes them feel more confident they don't have to hack the numbers, also makes the ceos more confident they don't have to lower forecast that much. so it makes the whole commentary

narrative more positive. you got fred on. >> look i just think when you listen to what fred's going to say, fred is going to say that europe's back. it's a fantastic call and i love the deal obviously the market loves the deal. it's a no-brainer giving how much u.p.s. will pay. your analyst talked about u.p.s. flat versus fedex. wow is that right. fedex is aggressive, i love them. >> great american fred smith. >> yes. economist, great american. used to come home with larry on kudlow and cramer and i just enjoy the guy. a great vision. >> he does. >> thanks jim. >> when we return a look at what you need to be watching when trading opens on wall street. here are futures at this hour and they suggest a positive open well, sir. after some serious consideration i'd like to put in my 15-year notice. you're quitting!? technically retiring, sir. with a little help from my state farm agent i plan to retire in 15 years. wow! you're totally blindsiding me here. who's gonna manage your accounts? this is a devastating blow i was not prepared for. well, i'm gonna finish packing my things.

15 years will really sneak up on you. jennifer with do your exit interview and adam made you a cake. red velvet. oh, thank you. i made this. take charge of your retirement. talk to a state farm agent today. o

. check out today's watch list. look for the latest snapshot on the job market with the jolts or jobs opening and labor turnover survey. the number of opened position rose to 5 million in january, the highest level in 14 years. also, a look at consumers' borrowing patterns monthly consumer credit numbers are out, credit expected to have increased slightly in february.

>> national beer day. international beaver day around the world, april 7th. they're builders and they're amazing at what they do. big deal in canada. >> architects behind national beavers day. >> it's an international day known around the world. international beaver day. >> it's national beer day and beaver day. beavers should not drink. on beer day. >> right. >> however -- >> any other day's fine. >> make sure you join us tomorrow. "squawk on the street" is next. ♪ ♪ ♪ you can feel it all over you can feel it all over♪ >> congratulations to coach k. and the duke blue devils on their fifth ncaa basketball championship. and to wisconsin on a stellar season as well. good tuesday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer david faber at the new york stock exchange. futures