tv Fast Money CNBC April 10, 2015 5:00pm-5:31pm EDT
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>> irs deadline? >> irs deadline, but the i.r.a. deadline for last year's money. >> of course, exactly. important point. thank you, everybody, for being here. appreciate it. that's it for "closing bell." "fast money" is coming up. what's up, melissa lee? >> apple, the tech trade into a capital turn. we will discuss the downgrades this week, kell. >> over to you guys. >> "fast money" starts now live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square. i'm melissa lee. your traders are tim seymour, steve grasso, brian kelly and guy adami. here's what's on the "fast track" tonight. the apple watch hype overshadowing an apple downgrade today. hear what tim cook has to say about the preorders in a cnbc exclusive coming up. and the hong kong market hot right now, but for how long? we'll tell you how to play the big rally. we start off with our top story. general electric powering the dow higher today. ge closing up nearly 11% with trading volume nearly 300 million shares. the company announcing a massive restructuring this morning. it is selling most of its ge capital and real estate assets and is instituting a $50 billion
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buyback program, this for a stock that has not done that much under their ceo. >> looking at the comparison between a honeywell for example and a general electric over the last 15 years, let's say since pre-2000, there is no comparison. honeywell has completely outperformed. both stocks trade around 15 1/2, 16 times forward earnings, but we've said a number of times, ge needs to get back to being general electric again. and i think by ridding themselves of ge capital's a great move. obviously, this buyback is huge. i don't want to speak to the timing of getting rid of ge capital. we can quibble over that. they obviously didn't -- i don't think they sold the lows or sold the highs, somewhere in the middle. but i think this gets them back on very solid footing. it's important that next friday they report. i think you have to wait until then to make your final decision, but we might have seen a bottom for quite some time in ge. >> i actually think for the stock itself, this is fantastic. i'm just an enormous buyback. and getting rid of assets at a
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time that one could argue that, at least they're favorable prices, if not, you know, maybe in the real estate area we've seen some of the tops. i don't know, but if you're certainly not bottom-ticking it here. so, in terms of the stock, this is something, if you want to take profits, go ahead and take profits, but you don't want to short this name at all because there's going to be a lot of support under there. to guy's point on ge and honeywell, it is the fact that ge financial dragged this stock down. now there's just nothing but runway here for this to go. >> at the same time, i mean, if you look at the projections, by 2018, 90%-plus of the profits -- >> is going to be industrial. >> -- will be industrial, but that's not 100%. if you want industrial valuation, won't you just go honeywell, because won't ge still have a discount embedded in it. >> it may, but you also have assets that will be spun off and given back to you effectively. the criticism that's out today is interesting, because where was all this criticism over the last couple years? even from the analyst community, let alone people that don't know a lot from the company, are talking about it.
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we've known ge capital is a problem. in fact, their problems started probably in 2004 or 2005 when the financial engineering took them into a business that probably wasn't their core business. but to say that the company's been lost i think is wrong. the company since 2008 has been trying to rectify the issues in the capital markets business and other parts of the credit profile that were obviously divergent from what the core business is. the core business is very, very strong here. and to me, this buyback more than compensates for the dilutive element of selling off these assets, which contributed $1 billion to net last year. so, people that are worried about that, this is absolutely a new day. i don't know that you need to buy it tomorrow, but i think there's a lot of people that have stayed away from this stock that are now back in this stock. and i also will just say, i don't think buybacks are bad news for any stocks. a lot of people want to say you're throwing in the towel. as a shareholder, this company becomes more eps-accretive with less shares. just obvious stuff. that's not a bad thing. >> ge, they have been spending money where they see fit. they have been making acquisitio acquisitions. it's not like they've been doing nothing with it.
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>> right, but you have to look at it. they have sold things at lows, they have bought things at tops. so, to his point, is this a top? we don't know. we're going to see what it is. >> because they're buying back their own shares? >> no, no, no. if they're selling these entities on good valuations right now, because there is a buyer, this is a good sell. we'll see what it looks like. >> oh, i see. >> in the rearview mirror. but i think you would have to buy this stock on the buyback alone right now. i think you're good for another 20%, 25% to the up side. >> 25% to the up side? >> to tim's point, i don't think the company's been lost. i mean, i think they have great businesses. i mean, you look at what ge has, unbelievable businesses, but the stock has been low. >> yes, yes. >> i think that's the important distinction. >> the problem is with leadership. >> and they had to have underperformed and have a lower valuation. >> exactly. >> they had to because of the mix of businesses. >> they had a monkey on their back, too. anyways, you took out the debt 312013 levels, closed at $38.50. this is well through the levels. this stock will be broken out and i think you stay on this
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one. i'm long. >> you think there's still huge upside. >> i think there's big upside, absolutely. >> yeah, i do think there's upside. we've tried to like general electric for years on this desk. >> yes. >> for a lot of different reasons, not the least of which we happen to like jeff immelt, but now it gives you a reason to love the stock again. i love this game! some st "would you rather?" honeywell. >> how would you know? >> i'm so in your head. >> that is so crazy! >> i was going to say honeywell. so, you say? >> honeywell. >> say honeywell. why? >> because i do believe it's a better company. >> okay. big day for apple, the tech giant accepting preorders for the apple watch today, and it's already back ordered for months. some customers may not receive their watch until july. cnbc's josh lipton had the chance to speak with tim cook outside of the palo alto apple store earlier today. take a listen. >> it's been incredible, you know. this morning i got reports from all the way around the world, from japan to australia to china to germany to france to the uk,
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canada, and now in the u.s. it's extraordinary. customers are given us great feedback, and orders are great as well. >> reporter: now, america needs to know, tim what model, what style are you wearing? >> well, you know, i'm wearing the apple watch with stainless with the white floral astimer band and i love it. i exercise in it and wear it most of the day. but i've got a couple other bands, too, because i also like to change them out. but i'm wearing this one the most. >> good to know. you can take home the watch yet, but the apple watch is on display around the globe and in apple stores. here are a few of the initial reactions from potential customers. >> reporter: if you had $10,000 to spend, would you buy an apple watch or a rolex? >> a rolex, definitely. >> reporter: and tell us why. >> a rolex is a bit more classic. i think this is a bit more techie and i spend too much time on my phone anyway. >> we were here on holiday and knew they were going on sale
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today, so you know, we just went in the app store and bought them. but we thought we would come here and have a look, a test drive of them. >> reporter: which did you buy and why? >> i bought the apple watch, the regular one. i didn't want to go full $17,000, but i wanted to get something that looked nice, looked professional. i thought about the sport watch, but what i ended up getting was the midway. >> i like the fact that i travel a lot, the apps for american airlines, spg as well as others. those things are part of my current app ecosystem that i don't have to pull the 6-plus phone out of my pocket while i'm going to the hotel or going through the airport. it's just all right there. >> we have no appointment. we can't believe we can get in without a line. we're going to go check it out. not going to buy it because i'm a little paranoid about the kind of wi-fi radiation on you at all times. >> i tried on the sports watch and then the apple watch. i actually like the sports watch better. i mean, it's what it's for. i mean, i would wear just a regular watch, you know, like during the day, but this one's
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actually really good, like for your workout. >> but it wasn't all good news for apple today, which brings us to our poll of the day. apple getting hit with its second downgrade this week. raymond james downgrading it to a hold from a buy, setting early not-so-great reviews of the apple watch coupled with an expected slowdown in iphone sales in the second quarter, and specifically, they say comps, fiscal year '16 over '15 are going to be very difficult because of that iphone slowdown. >> well, i think what's different about apple now than at the last peak of its cycle is, i'll coin this metaphor, it's like the potpourri in the corner of guy's office, because everything smells nice. >> delicious. >> yes, very nice, by the way. but all of the components work and smell good. so, back to the reality. look, the iwatch doesn't have to nail it, but it has to be a place where it's contributing. the next phase of the iphone cycle's going to drive the stock snort-run, but the ihealth, the ipay, all this stuff is helping for the company. people are looking at the long-term and the short-term. >> i like the overtones you
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have. but anyway, if you take a look at the stock's performance for the week, it's up 1.33% or so after two downgrades. so, in terms of the price action, it's like, we don't care. investors don't care if it's downgraded. >> you know i've thrown in the towel in terms of trying to trade this thing. let's make that clear. but i've also pointed out this week that what i think the stock is doing, similar to back in the fall, it made a move from $100 to $120, backed off to $110, based, then made the next move to $135. now here we are at $125. i think this is a basing process we've seen over the last couple weeks. i think it takes the next leg higher. i think if you want to trade it, you trade it against $123.50-$124, but i think the next leg is up. >> the analyst argument is also that it should be pretty much on par with the valuation of the s&p 500. do you agree? >> no, actually. i think it should trade above the s&p 500. just on that argument alone. you have an iconic product. you have a new release that could possibly drive more sales to the iconic product. and if tim's ipotpourri metaphor
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is correct -- >> i like that. >> -- the second part of the year should be good. to me, i'm not going to buy a watch, but apple here against $120 i think is a really good risk-reward. >> topping the tape today, the dollar and crude oil both moving higher on the day again. normally with a stronger greenback, it drives the commodities lower. should we make a big deal out of this or is this a short covering here? >> i think the one thing we talked about, i think it's a short covering trade. i think there's more room to that. it's obviously telling us that when it doesn't care what direction the dollar is moving. i think guys have to reposition in energy. you're seeing that. it's probably going to last a little bit longer but not indefinitely. >> i hear that, but how do you explain then also the dollar's going higher and other commodities, the crb's also up during this last few days. emerging markets and emerging market fx and crosses have done very well. emerging markets totally outperformed. this should be a time where they got slammed in the face, got a couple weeks, but they're not. >> it could be a china trade, too, as well, when we see that
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pboc, want to give the breakdown? >> people's bank of china. >> grade school. >> when they say they're going to tighten or loosen as they see fit. so, you saw all commodities run on that as well. >> i think this is actually the trillion-dollar question we have out there right now. so, when oil came down, i was one saying the scale of the decline says that there's probably a bigger slowdown in the economy, which we've seen some weakness in the global economy. now the question is, you have a strong dollar because the fed is likely to normalize rates some time this year, or at least that's what people are expecting, and strong commodities. so, is that a signal that the global economy is starting to pick up again? i'm not in that camp yet. nonetheless, you still look at gsg, that's one that i bought last week, you still have this unwind trade. an unwind trade from these levels oversold with this amount of short interest in oil and in commodities can be a great trade for a while. >> oil equities today. >> trade against $85, which was today's low. it bounced. and just for you potpourri,
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henry vendell makes unbelievable candles. i'm not kidding around. the number of scents they have are exquisite. >> exquisite! you burn hot candles in your office and have potpourri. >> as often as possible. >> do you have a bubble bath in there as well? >> take a position. netflix upgraded today ahead of earnings next week. we'll tell you how it trade it before the numbers come out. and the hong kong rally showing no signs of letting up. could this market come crashing down as quickly as it popped? and the first move you need to make monday morning, coming up. kabout retirement. a 401(k) is the most sound way to go. let's talk asset allocation. sure. you seem knowledgeable, professional. i'm actually a dj. [ dance music plays ] woman: [laughs] no way! that really is you? if they're not a cfp pro, you just don't know. cfp -- work with the highest standard.
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welcome back to "fast money." i'm meg tirrell. check out jetblue, the airline reporting march traffic increased 9.2% from last year. the company also reporting an increase of 8% on a measure of passenger revenue, saying revenue on that metric increased about 4.5% in the first quarter, above its guidance of 3% to 4%. jetblue currently trading up just a fraction of a percent. melissa, back to you. >> all right, thank you, meg tirrell. she knows about so many things. >> it's unbelievable. >> smart girl. >> within the airlines -- >> but it had not been for a long time, since november. it's finally catching up to the
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rest of them. i think all these gals and guys report next week, jetblue on the 23rd, delta next week, i heard that on the 4:00 show you're going to learn a lot about the airlines, which have lagged recently, if you look. i do still like jetblue, but i think clearly, earnings next week are very important to these guys. >> american had a quick update today. i thought the numbers were good, the margins are a little under pressure. delta next week, actually on the 15th. i think it's an interesting thing to buy. i think their margins are accreting. people have overdone the weakness on the oil prices. a slew of earnings on deck next week for big banks. netflix taking your position ahead of key reports here. we'll kick it off with netflix rallying today on an upgrade from citi. the firm citing its content lineup and global growth as the cataly catalyst. citi also increasing its price target. netflix reports wednesday after the bell. guy? >> the technical trade has almost been right. we thought when it broke for $40 on the downside, it would print $400. i think it paraded down to $409 and change, but it's obviously
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bounced. now i believe $440 is your pivot. it obviously exploded through that today. how do you trade it? i think it is ready for the next leg higher. your stop-out level is $440 on the down side. i think you have a well-defined risk-reward trade. people say everybody is underestimating the international growth. that's probably true, but in terms of technical, stay long against $440. >> and "orange is the new black outside coming out in the new quarter. even "the bears" are coming out. >> content is king and guy has traded this perfectly. i see resistance around $486 or so. but you have to look at it. people are viewing things in a total different manner and i think you'll see another price increase. that's going to help them, ultimately. people might be negative on it originally, but i think ultimately, this stock is heading towards $500. >> and from netflix to the big banks, jpmorgan kicking off bank earnings tuesday before the bell, along with wells fargo. bank of america reporting wednesday, citi on thursday. beakers. >> so, i have been negative on the banks or actually neutral on the banks. really, the hypothesis is they're too big to succeed,
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they're utilities at this time and should trade one times book, and that's basically where they're trading at this point in time. unless you see some massive steepening of the yield curve, which i don't think you're going to get, then to me, the banks are a no-touch. we'll see what happens. perhaps some of the legal costs are getting out of the way, but it seems like every quarter you have something else that pops up that does not allow these banks to operate the way they should. so, for me, banks are just a complete no-touch here. >> tim? >> well, you know, so, taking some of the things brian's saying, i would prefer to do more relative value within these guys. i think jpmorgan is best of breed, but i don't think they have as much operational leverage to a recovery, so i'd rather be long citi against jpmorgan and even bank of america to me has operating expense issues that may start to come out. i think there is better strength in the sales and trading business than people think. i think the investment banking business is growing and there's too much attention on the nims and weaker yield curve or collateral yield curve. citi's my call, but i would be relative value put on the banks. all right, breaking news here on spotify. we go to mel meg terrell.
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>> this is just crossing from dow jones. spotify is nearing a deal to raise $400 million at a $8.4 billion valuation, dow jones citing people familiar with the matter. also reporting that goldman sachs and abu dhabi's sovereign wealth fund have agreed to invest in this round, which dow jones reports would be the seventh raising money for spotify. so, at the valuation of $8.4 billion, that's up quite a bit from last september when it was valued at $5 billion. again, spotify nearing a deal to raise $400 million, valued at $8.4 billion. melissa, back to you. >> thank you so much, meg tirrell, which is a higher valuation than the current market cap of a pan doctor gentleman. >> guess who's scared now? call the pandora shorts. i'm almost guaranteeing that -- >> that's not a game. >> right or wrong. it is a game, because that's why this whole thing -- >> why are they scared? >> because look at the valuation of spotify, much higher than people thought. >> you think it should go up. >> isn't that an indictment against pandora?
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isn't that the point? >> the knee-jerk -- i'm telling you right now, it's going up. >> it's just volume friday afternoon. we'll keep an eye on it. coming up next, move over, chart of the day. we're bringing you the chart of the week on the back of asia's rally. a look at whether hong kong's soaring move can keep up the momentum. ♪
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time now for our "chart of the week." that's right, not just chart of the day. check out hong kong's hang seng, up more than 8% this week, following the huge rally we saw in shanghai shares this year. can this rally, though, continue? tim has been bullish on china for some time. here's what he said back in december. >> this has been one of the best performing markets in emerging. there's different ways to play it. there's an etf pek. there's csi 300 is the shenzhen
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or the shanghai comp. these are the indices. people say china hasn't done much. it has. it's up 34% year to date. i think there's more. it's all about liquidity. central bank cuts, i think two more to 2015. and it's trading historical multiples, around 12 times earnings. this is very, very cheap for local china. liquidity wins. i think you stay in this market. >> btw, the pek, etf is up more than 50% since that call. so, tim what do you do now? >> well, one of the things that's also happening is you're seeing the fxi get pulled up. this is the hong kong market and one of the dynamics here is that the chinese money, which is trapped money and they're forcing liquidity and liquidity is king and it's going into hong kong, so they're going into some of the big-cap stocks like china mobile, like china unicom, and so, things that were already, i should say that we're under a little bit of pressure where big value traps are catching the fx. it's been rallying and i think you stay with that trade. >> the hong kong shares trade.
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>> yes. i think if you've been in this trade, god bless and take your profits, but china mobile and china unicom also fundamentally as companies, i think the worst of the inefficient capex is behind these guys and the 4g build-out has been accretive to them. so, companies that -- you know, it's china. there's a lot of unknown there. they're state companies, but they've done very well and i think the liquidity continues. >> so, like an fxi sort of -- >> fxi, chl, chu. i'm long chl and fxi. >> breaking news from meg tirrell on yahoo! >> that's right. paris swisher reporting that a top exec, mike kerns, has left the company. he reported to ceo marissa myers, senior vice president of the home page and other. >> thanks so much, meg trill. steve grasso, yahoo!? >> i've been out of the name for a while, sold my position. i think that the catalyst for upside profitability in the name have sort of evaporated. everyone was playing it as the
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ali baba trade. at this point, i think you've got to stay clear of the name. >> how about you? >> you know what, i think you buy ali baba as opposed to yahoo! if you want to have that exposure again. i think that if there is really some value here to the rest of yahoo! at this point in time, it would be trading much higher, so it concerns me. time for "the final trade." let's go around the horn. tim seymour. >> i want to be long delta numbers. they report on the 15th. revenue trends are good and i think the margins will surprise people and longer term, they have turned their business around. delta, buy the weakness. >> grasso? >> ge, based on recent nerves, based on the buyback. i think it's grossly underowned at this point. you will have a lot of funds looking at valuation, taking into account the massive buyback. look at it, a third, a fourth, fifth look at it and buying the stock. >> e.k. >> i'm going with intel. >> interesting. >> basically when it was back at $29.30, we had a big spike up. on this pullback, you buy intel. >> we learned a lot nighto
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potpourri. >> potpourri. winter wonderland, even in summer? >> of course! it's year-round. >> blackstone! posted above $40 today. tim's long this name. great dividend, report next week. bx will get you done. >> get you done. >> got scared when you yelled at me. >> get you done. >> that will do it for us. up next on "options action," we're taking you behind the massive vix trade that could spell doom for stocks. thanks for watching. see you back here next week.
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hey, we're back after a two-week break. mike, you miss me? >> absolutely. >> that's the right answer. while they're getting ready for the show, here's what's coming up. hemlock holmes calling dick tracy. >> i read you, hemlock. >> that's one fancy watch, but could it be enough to lift apple to all-time highs? the answer will surprise you. plus, there's one mega cap tech name that's about to break out. want a hint? >> i am the architect. >> that's close, but we'll tell you what it is and how to make money. and it's a bull market no one is talking about. >> oil, that is, black gold. ♪ >> and it's about to bubble up a lot higher. we'll tell you how to cash in. the action starts right now.
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