bill? >> she hits me with a zinger at the end. melissa francis, you guys -- melissa lee, i'm sorry. >> that's okay. >> this is actually something that we got on etsy. we'll explain a little later on -- >> is that a sock puppet? >> and whether etsy is a takeover target. >> that looks like a sock puppet. >> i can't wait to see this. trust me, it's all yours. >> thanks guys. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square. tim seymour, steve grasso, dan nathan and guy adami. the massive addition of global subscribers has investors so excited to the tune of 12% in the afterhours. san dusk missing on earnings and the stock is taking a hit. and the ipo for onloon marketplace etsy pricing moments ago, 16 bucks a share.

top end of the range. we'll bring you the latest headlines plus someone who says etsy could alreadiy be seen as takeover target. netflix trading at an all time high. it's all about the subscriber numbers. those were both beats and also reed hastings talking about retention as being a key driver for those numbers being so high. >> and their core argument was the unbundling is very good for us. at one point when hbo started talking about it, everyone said, hey, this is death for these guys because they have the real content. netflix is telling us we don't see this as mutually exclusive players in the same space. the international growth to me is what it's all about though. i think the domestic subgrowth is something that's probably seen its best days and we haven't really grown since the second quarter of last year, but international very interesting. i still maintain that i think this is a technology company, not a content company. they're obviously doing both, but what multiple do you put on

the stock? and the stock that trades from 320 to 485 range has broken well through it. so i think it's a very difficult place for traders. >> the guidance for the second quarter wasn't bad either. >> tim hit the nail on the head. i think the mistake people have made is they try to look at it on valuation and say it's way, too, expensive. yes, it's stupid expensive but their growth rate is tremendous in terms of sub adds and that's what we've talked about. i think we've done a decent job in pointing out ranges. what do you do now? 485 with previous double tops. we talked about a break through would get you the 10% or so that dan talked about in options. here we are. >> tim mentioned the international subscriber growth and that's what's been the focus. when you look at the beat on domestic, when you think about the cord cutting, and so my thesis, i'm not involved in the name, this is not the sort of stock i would own just on valuation and on a whole heck of a lot of other things, but i believe in the near term i think this move towards cord cutting,

some of the things apple will be doing with the new tv program, i think it's massively beneficial to netflix. i think you will see domestic subs do better. when you have this new daredevil, it's caught a lot of buzz. this caught people by surprise. i think the content if they can continue to put up winners like this, i think it works. >> when i hear the ceo talking about retention and customers willing to stick with the service because of the content aufertio offerings, i think price increase can be passed through. >> there's going to be another price increase. i think they intimated there will be another price increase. you're going to pay for this. it's the same thing with amazon prime. you get a price increase, you love the product, but you have to sell. >> why? >> anything that spikes this much higher, sell half, sell three-quarters, sell something because when you have this type of velocity in a trade, there's going to be a massive rush to the exit for guys that are looking to take profits off a number this big. >> and i agree with that from a trading strategy. i would probably wait for it to

come back to around 500, but if you look at the way the stock has traded for a long time, i would say that 480, 485 breakout this, was a very important day. i think it was a very important and decisive move through a level that markets have not let it do and i think we've now set a new floor for the stock. >> as a trader, you use that 500, that is kind of the floor right now. that's what you trade against. that's your stop. if this is something you think could keep skipping up $100. remember, this stock had been trading between 300 and 490 for the last year or so. now it's established a new range. if it can hold it, that's what you trade against. >> there's a lot of pain out there today, too. don't think some of this move isn't short covering. especially when you're looking at the markets and looking for momentum plays and this is a classic one -- >> if you think there's short coverings there will be a lot more follow through tomorrow. you can have a lot por participants sitting at their desks trade pentagon. >> the only misstep reed hasting

took was when they started tampering with pricing. since then they've done everything right. you talk about retention. another word for retention is being lazy because when people -- people sign up for netflix, there's no compelling reason for them not -- to get rid of it. that's the retention plan. it's a complacency the viewers have. >> you think it's sort of like dumb luck -- >> no, no, no, that's not what i said. once you own it, the inclination is to stay with it. >> guys -- guy was saying he still has dial up internet. >> let's bring in web bush securities michael packet packt has a buy rating. you thought they would surprise to the upside. you got it. why are you still sticking with the sell rating. >> i'm valuing them on fundamentals and i think all of the panel has correctly pointed out this is not a fundamental story. this is a story about subscriber

growth and investors are completely unconcerned about profits or cash flow. they care about subscribers, and i get the bull case, that if they keep growing by 4.9 million subscribers per quarter, they're going to take over the world. i get it and i agree with all of you guys. pricing is the key to this company's long-term success. i think that it is inevitable they'll raise price. i think they will thrive when they do so, i just have a problem fundamentally valuing the company because once they do raise price and once they do start making a ton of money, the question is will they attract competition at lower prices and will they cease growing. and i think that's likely. i think they will race prices to 15 bucks over the next five years. i think they will top out at 60 or 70 or 80 million subscribers and then they won't grow and they will be solidly profitable with no growth which means you will pay a more modest multiple than 126 times.

>> reed hastings made a point of saying in the release that he didn't think hbo was competition necessarily, they wouldn't be substitutes for one another. a world will exist where you have both of them. would you agree with that or do you think there are competitive threats where netflix would be replaced. >> i think your panel pointed this out correctly. cord cutting isn't the problem, it's cord shaving and it's cord never. so it's the people who decide to downgrade their subscription to maybe basic cable and then they get netflix for older tv shows and hbo for more current content. i think that's a real problem for the content owners and the cable companies and i think you're going to see people cut their cable bill down instead of cutting it down and then cord never, which is every teenager alive today, i think they have no intention of signing up for cable. they will do hulu plus, netflix, maybe rabbit ears, hbo now. that's the long-term solution for a lot of households.

netflix and hbo so thrive side by side. they're both good content offerings at reasonable prices. >> what would netflix have to say, forget about this quarter, in the ensuing quarters for you to say maybe they have figured it out. maybe my 245 or 250 price target is not going to come to fruition and maybe they know more than i do. what do you need to hear to make you a believer? >> one thing, cash flow positive. if i see cash flow turn positive and it looks sustainable and it looks to be growing, then i am going to like this company. but cash flow is negative, and it's accelerating at the rate of negative cash flow generation. they're spending -- they spent $796 million more than they earned in the last 11 quarters. that's $7.96 a share. it's going to hit the bottom line in the future unless they turn this around in a hurry, and i'm not seeing any evidence that they intend to. >> do you think that will happen in your life span as a research analyst covering netflix? >> i'm thinking i'm going to

have to retire in disgrace if the stock keeps going up so that might end next quarter but i have 11 more years and then i'm done working forever. so probably so. >> all right. michael, thank you. >> thank you. >> michael pachtered a wedbush securities. it is up 12% in the afterhours session. >> as an analyst he's spot on in terms of everything he said. >> you have to respect him for sticking with the underperform. >> and from an analyst's point of view that's a huge concern but if you continue to roll up the entire world quarter after quarter, at a certain point you can monetize that. we have seen that with a lot of different companies. the stock tells you that it wants to continue higher. >> one question, for all the international growth, you have to wonder if the level of svod, streaming video on demand, services, or infrastructure will allow them to grow the same rate. look at japan, hulu had a lot of trouble growing there. there's a cultural issue.

you can't impute this gross forever. >> it's a trading stock. up 11%, take profits. >> we should note that the conference call doesn't start until 6:00. we'll continue tracking the stock in the afterhours session. let's get to another earnings mover. sandisk at the lows of the afterhours session. dom chu has the details. >> we're down 3.5%, 271,000 shares of volume on the flash memory maker. sandisk reporting earnings per share of 62 cents. that misses analysts' estimates for 66 cents a share. revenues coming in just about in line, $1.3 billion worth. the company in its release did say that they are disappointed with the financial and operational performance and quickly taking aggression sif measures to regain the excellence in execution they've rediffer delivered in the past. the conference call started at 5:00 p.m. so it's ongoing right now in the initial stages. obviously as this kind of moves the stock, we'll brings you any market moving updates. you can see 3.7%, losing some

steam in the afterhours. back over to you. >> thank you very much, dom chu. the context of this, the company had already taken down revenue guidance, had postponed indefinitely an analyst meeting that had been scheduled for may. it is coming out beating on revenue but the eps was a big one. it was down 20% the day they wash warned. >> and the stock bounced back. we talk about micron a lot. this stock has been very volatility. the stock was always trading at high single digits multiple. here you have sandisk which was supposed to have faster growth here also in a very, very commoditized memory space here. why shouldn't a stock like sandisk that is misexecuting right now and there's a lot of pricing pressure, why shouldn't it trade at ten times earn sntion. >> and you're finding this is company specific stuff. these guys through these numbers say things haven't stabilized. so people are worried more about sandisk. >> the self driving car play,

mobile i-shares popping today. we have the analyst saying more investors will be looking to get in. and shake shack pulling back today after a massive rally this week. dan nathan has a trade school on what could be behind shake shack's move. that's coming up on "fast." it gets talked about... ♪ ♪ so you can live the way you live, and enjoy all the rewards. chase sapphire preferred. so you can. and shake shack pulling back

breaking news on etsy pricing its ipo. dom chu has the details. >> just in the last few moments in the last 15, 20 minutes we know that etsy is going to price at the high end of its prior range, $16 per share. that according to multiple reports and one by dow jones. at that $16 per share valuation, they're going to be sell being 16.7 million shares. it does give etsy per dow jones a valuation of about $1.78 billion or $1.8 billion. it does not account for the over allotment of shares for underwriters if the demand is sufficient enough. it looks like etsy being met with decent demand from investors pricing at the height of range, 16 bucks a share, valuing the company right now at $1.8 billion. back over to you. >> thank you so much. dan nathan you took a look at gross merchandise value. >> $1.8 billion, that's probably ten times sales. that's kind of expensive for a company that's not profitable here. you will have to see some real

growth. ipos have not been acting so fantastic of late, especially ones -- well,s, the go daddy acted pretty well but it's been flat lined since then. >> bank of america kicking off our top trades today. the stock ending lower by 1% after revenues missed estimates. the bank did post a first quarter profit recovering from its legal losses. investment banking fees and trading revenue fell in the quarter. >> people under stood you would see the net interest income be lower but they were shocked at the expenses sill happening in the name. i bought it because it's a trading range. $15 is my loss. $18 is moi upside. i am long. >> goldman sachs, this is over 200 for first time since the crisis. >> for a while now we said they're going to continue to rally in earnings. i think it's going to be a fantastic quarter. i think fixed income is going to knock it out of the park. so, yeah, continue to like gs. >> next up, the energy trade.

energy outpacing all other major sectors ending near its highs. all the major s&p 500 energy stocks positive. crude oil having a big intraday move higher finishing the day up 5% hitting its highest level in 2015 after the eia reporting a less than expected increase of 1.3 million barrels in weekly inventories. back to guy. >> first of all, good job by tim. he sort of talked about the bottom of this thing a couple weeks ago and it's proven to be the case. i think there's another leg down. doesn't matter at this point what i think. the stocks are telling you people have to play major catch-up. look at the way anadarkonadarko. you had a big move at conocophillips, exxonmobil. the momentum trade to me right now might be apc into the may 5th earnings release. >> you also had the eia out saying they think production will be another million barrels by 2020. they said drilling is going up, and i think this really supported the drillers. the energy breakout also what's

interesting is we are now through that february spike peak on a lot of stocks, so it's been a shark tooth rally in oil but what today did for a lot of these guys is it pushed them through what had been the top of the range. i added to exxon. it's lagged and i feel very comfortable with the environment and also the backdrop for these guys which is one i think they're very, very well exposed to be opportunistic and strong in this environment. >> if we're seeing the sort of upswing, do we then go into the shale names? >> you could, but i think the reason why you want to go into the shale names is because they think that the shale boom is basically over or coming to an end, that we've peaked there. that could be a supply/demand issue where you want to be buying those names. in the crude space, i have said it before, you want to be buying the service names, rotating out of refiners, going to service. i actually did a tangent off of this. coal space. i bought btu today. i figured the downside is probably -- >> brave man. >> it's a $5 name. i'm close to the bottom. >> why is the downside limited there to 5 snds. >> i shouldn't say that. i should say the low was $4.77.

i'm shooting against that. it's 10% off the bottom right now. so you're in -- you have the potential for a huge upside here, and you got to believe either coal is going out of business or you buy best in breed. i think btu is best in breed. >> time to hit our call of the day. shares of mobile i getti-- mobi getting a big call. mar began stanley increasing the target to 68 handz$68 to $65-jo now is robby shanker. great to have you with us. >> thanks for having me. >> your forecast for adas penetration are staggering. 70% by 29. >> right. >> a key pillar to the thesis is a lot of oems will start announcing this as a standard option. toyota and nissan have already done that. walk us through the number of vehicles that will then be out on the road with these options.

>> sure. so as you said, toyota has already said that pretty much every car they sell in the u.s. is going to have it by 2017. 70% of cars they sell in europe by 2015, similar numbers in japan. volkswagen has said something similar a few years out. nissan is already making automatic braking standard in japan by the fall of this year. so if you assume something like roughly 100 million cars sold by the end of the decade, we say 40% of them will have adas options by 2020 and that goes up by 2029. >> once it's in a vehicle and once it's in a model s that sticky through the lifetime of that vehicle? >> we think so because the obms, the carmakers, have to spend millions of dollars and two to five years of development time to calibrate the system for every single model they put it in. so once they put that in the car, once they put in all that effort, say the car is on sale for five to seven years, typical

life cycle of a car, assume there are no crashes, no lawsuits, no liabilities, the oem will not spend that same time and money again to put a new supplier in. unless they have a very, very good reason, we think mobileye stays in the car. >> when you hear somebody like tim cook or elon musk say they are all for the self driving car and they could be in the market themselves, is that a good thing for mobileye? >> the beauty of the system is that you're seeing adas and eventually autonomous driving come in from the high end with tesla and audi and also at the low end with a toyota and a nissan. so matter what kind of car you're buying, you're exposed to these technologies and the number one thing you need to make this technology work in the long run is to have consumer exposure. people need to experience adaptive cruise control for first time, experience automatic braking and then the technology moves from being a gimmick to

being life-saving technology. >> you mentioned tesla. you and your colleague adam jonas had a note jed lowering estimates on tesla and i'm curious because what struck me was the estimates for 2015 and 2016 full year were well below consensus and yet you are sticking with your overrating. for 2015 your estimate is lower than the bank of america analyst who has a sell rating on the stock. as somebody who is looking at this, it doesn't make any sense. >> it comes down to what do you see tesla has as. we see tesla is successful maker of cars that are fun to drive and cars that people really want to buy. if someone wants to own tesla because they're going to sell millions of cars by 2020, we're not sure that's going to work. our price point for each car is higher because we think that the

car is actually going to be better and they will sell to a more luxury customer. if you view tesla of the bmws of evs, we still think it's worth something like 280 bucks. >> so basically as an outside observer, you're saying -- it almost doesn't make a difference what tesla earns or loses versus consensus. it's still going to outperform the market. >> the most important thing is they need to make beautiful cars that are fast and people really want to buy because of the tech and the brand. as long as they keep that going, we think tesla has a successful feature. thank you for coming by. let's trade this. >> mobileye. >> he could speak to this. originally they were going to price a $14 million secondary. it's a tell. lines -- you own mobileye

against 41 3/4. >> the only problem i see is i did own mobileye. i sold it. it works off a camera based system where the competitors are working off camera and radar. so at this point i understand the bullish case on mobileye, but the competitors are huge out there. google is working on their own car. so if you start to see these little companies start to build, it's radar that they have to start building on, not just camera based. i think that's more accurate and i think with driverless cars you will see that type of technology overtake mobileye. >> ultimately, i think competition with tesla and mobileye is what you have to look at. we talked about it being the bmw. how about bmw being the bmw of evs. that's the big issue with tesla. with mobileye it's such a fantastic space, i think other guys will be there even with the commitment the automakers have made to the infrastructure. >> mobileye, a 10 billion market cap -- >> are you -- >> i think it's berserk. to me they may grow into it.

it's not going to grow into its valuation. >> let's get news on san dusk heading lower. >> right now the price action is accelerating to the downside. we're down close to 6%. 443,000 shares of volume have transacted. the conference call is happening right now. we told but that earlier. what we know from the conference call is they have offered full year sales, revenue guidance, between 5$5.4 billion to $5.7 billion versus analyst estimates for $6.1 billion. so a decent sized shortfall in the full-year revenue expectations. they have, however, say in the second half of the year they expect e quen shall revenue growth in q3 and q4. also this they are looking to lower their expenses with the reduction in force of their workforce during the second quarter. they want to cut approximately 5% of their nonfactory employees or head count. so, again, some anticipated job cuts, also full year sales guidance coming in below estimates. that's why the shares are down

about 5%, guys. >> thank you, dom chu. at some point does this get so bad that the story becomes attractive? >> dan said it before. what's the right valuation for a xhom mod advertised business that sort of dwindles. this stock potentially could trait in the mid-50s. with a ten multiple, that's not ridiculous. >> coming up next, shake shack making an eye catching move and go pro rallying. dan nathan is ready to school us on the anatomy of a short squeeze. and etsy pricing at the high end of the range. one guest says the name is already a prime takeover target. stay tuned. in trading there's rumorings and facts. when i come to the show, i spread the facts. everyone on the show is a professional trader. >> we put our money where our mouth is. >> easy money is made going with the consensus. >> and we're always trying to look for what's the next trade?

not what is the obvious trade but what's the trade is nobody has taken a look at, nobody has put on that you could put on tomorrow? >> "fast money" weekdays 5:00 eastern on cnbc.

welcome back to "fast money." more news on the ipo front. virtue financial, the pure play high frequency trading firm anticipated to ipo tomorrow, now according to dow jones prices its ipo at $19 per share. that's on the high end, $17 to $19 was the expectation. with that valuation we're talking about $2.6 billion in terms of total valuation for the company. that according to dow jones, and again what's interesting is the fact that this is the first time a pure play high frequency trading firm has gone public in this particular market here, so it will be interesting to see how investors react and what kind of demand we see for this kind of a business model. back over to you. >> thanks so much, dom chu. shares of shake shack pulling back today after a huge run to the upside in the past few days. the stock is up around 15% over the past week. dan nathan thinks he knows what's going on with shake shack and he's at the smart board with a trade school we're calling the

anatomy of a short squeeze. >> it's a good old-fashioned short squeeze. here's a stock i own. i like it but not because of valuation. i like it because of a host of reasons i will explain. mel just said the stock was up 17% this week, 12% yesterday out of nowhere, and when you look at this, this is the chart over the last 52 days since its ipo. the stock ipo'd in the 20s. it was up 100% almost immediately and then it's basically flatlined until this recent breakout just this week. and i got to thinking, there was another stock that ipo 'd last year that had a similar pattern and that was go pro. went public in the 20s. it gapped up, had a successful ipo. flatlined for a couple months. this is the first 52 days. the chart blow was shake shack. and then it broke out. here is the thing, for some of you who look at valuation like pachter on netflix before, look what happened. this is go pro since the ipo.

once it broke out, it actually went up another 100%. and so when you think about what's going on here, it obviously topped out at some point. but awed certain situation and both of these stocks share some similar characteristics. there's positive sentiment, scarcity, and there's high short interest, and you don't want to short them until they turn that shake shack chart looks like it could keep going and that go pro chart tells you since its inception that once it turns, there's rallies. >> the expectation it will go higher and peak and go down. >> at some point when the sentiment turns. analysts are not on board with shake shake. there's only one buy, six holds, a and a few sells. at some point when the sentiment turns, that's when you start to short. >> how do you sense when the sentiment turns. it seems you are so vulnerable to what has not been a ton of volume. these are not small cap names but names where momentum has

been largely based upon the ipo. >> it's a great question i'm going to tell yu. look at the chart right here of go pro. it made this high here. it tried to come back up, it couldn't make a new high, and that's when you go back and that's when you try to short it. >> all right. thanks for that, dan. trade school. >> let's get a news alert on gm. slightly higher in the after hours. phil lebeau is live from chicago with that story. >> melissa, this is because of a ruling that came out late this afternoon from a federal bankruptcy judge. there were a number of lawyers who had filed lawsuits against general motors alleging that the company should be held liable for any ignition switch accidents, economic loss zpen accidents, that happened prior to 2009 when the company filed for bankruptcy. in bankruptcy as part of the bailout, general motors was given shields so it could not be held liable for any accidents, not just with the ignition switch, but any accidents prior to june of '09. the judge today ruled that they can be restricted or given the shield from those accidents.

this limits the ignition switch accident exposure for general motors. the compensation that was set up and open to people who may have had loved ones who passed away or were injured in accidents before 2009 and after 2009. that fund closed at the end of january. so for those who were rolling the dice, melissa, who thought you know what? we think that general motors still has exposure here and should still be held responsible for any accidents that happened pre-2009, they're pretty much out of luck right now. now, you can always make the argument they could appeal this decision and that there's a possibility that an appellate judge might rule differently, but at this point this caps the exposure for general motors, and that's why shares are moving higher. >> thank you for that. best trade in the automobile space, guy adami? >> tesla. i mean, i don't know if that's an automobile space or not, but i think tesla -- we talked about the technicals, bottomed out at

180. i think they will blow through 225. >> are you shorting into april 30 snth. >> i'm really looking -- i think it's going to run into it. i think you sell that and you want to be short for that may 7th earning announcement. i think we already have a lot of news and i think it's going to retest 180. >> any announcements these companies have made have been disappointments. i would own gm. this is a company that to me found a base, it's trading higher. >> for or against, guy? >> break the tie. >> i'm for guy. >> that's it. >> no, his trade on tesla. >> totally against it but i'm for guy. >> all right. coming up next, netflix soaring after missing on earnings, but the subscriber adds were on fire. the three key things to watch for as the earnings call kicks off. that's right after the break. with a cruising riding position and the most advanced vehicle

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netflix soaring after hours on strong subscriber growth in the earnings report. the call beginning at 6:00. let's goat to julia boorstin for the top three things they will be watching for. >> one big question is about what is driving this stock so much higher after hours. it's that subscriber growth. can it continue this faster than expected pace of new subscriber

additions and we'll be listening to see whether hastings will reveal any details about global expansion to asia in particular. second, with netflix just announcing a massive nature documentary series, what are the ower content category that is the company will enter next? and what are hastings' aspirations for the scope of different types of tv channels his content could compete with. and, third, hastings has been a very vocal opponent of comcast's acquisition of time warner cable. we can expect questions about what the risks are to netflix if the merger goes through. hastings already said in his letter to shareholders that they're moving towards approval -- shareholder approval of a stock split, and he said he's not concerned about competition from hbo now, but i wouldn't be surprised if those topics, the stock split and competition, draw some attention as well. >> julia boorstin, thanks for that. dan nathan, options market predicted this move. what are they predicting further out? >> about a 10% move. in front of this -- so these

guys talks about the move we had over the last week. that came out of nowhere. this stock looked like it was going to fill in that gap to the downside. it went back to the high end of the range and now it's gapped above it. there's been a lot of call buying into this event. a lot of hedge fund playing for this move. i suspect -- i think tim said it -- you don't go in and buy it in the afterhours in low volume and you got to see if it consolidates a little bit above 500 but i expect you see profit taking. when you think about call buyers, they will look to take profits because they expire at some point. >> time for pops and drops. pop for delta up 3%. >> and their numbers, expectations i think were very low. there were shorts covered there. also showing their domestic business is humming along. i say stay with the airlines. around 45 you have some resistance. play through that. >> a >> pop for oracle up 3%. guy. >> if you look at their

businesses, they have three of their major businesses all have tailwinds. the stock very quietly is trading at levels we haven't seen in probably 10 to 15 years. it's not expensive. i think they report in june. i think you stay long the name into earnings. >> yelp is pop, the move 4%. >> the stock was up 4%. there was rumors today i think david faber shot them down that yahoo! was looking to buy foursquare for $900 million. when you think about yelp does, they kind of compete on a lot of different levels. what is the value you would assign to yelp and who would buy nem? that's probably why the stock was up. it's down 10% on the year. the numbers keep getting worse so i avoid this one. >> drop for deckers. it's counterintuitive to buy this company in the spring and summer. if you would have bought it last april, you would have garnered a 31% increase in value. if you want to wait until it closes above the 50-day moving average, you can do that as well.

lots of talk about the rally in china but tim is taking another look at another country that's seeing some seriously big under the radar moves in the past month to the upside. >> russia, and so emerging markets have had a big run. russia had the biggest run of all of them. it's largely been currency based because there's cheap funding. i think a lot of local corporates are playing this. the u.s. traded names, mbt, yondex, telco names. it's differ dividend season. stay in the name. >> panera is up. >> it was only up 2% just about maybe 10 or 15 minutes ago on about 20,000 shares of volume. now it's up 10% on 66,000 shares of volume. the company is basically announced they're going to sell about 73 company-owned cafes and refranchise them. sell them to franchisees, use that money to boost their stock

buyback program to $750 million. so they're shedding assets, at least slai least shrinking the balance sheet. investors like the move. 66,000 shares but still a nice 10% pop for panera after hours. back over to you. >> thanks, dom chu. guy? >> insignificant amount of their market cap. that's actually a pretty big number for them. what does it mean? the momentum is behind these guys. there's the short interest in the name. yes, it's expensive but this is one of those franchises that is seemingly a standalone -- i don't know who competes with panera because when i go in there and get the bread bowls -- >> that's so carb heavy, guy. do you really do that? >> not in a while. >> it's obvious. just kidding. >> you're not kidding. >> words are like weapons, they hurt sometimes. >> panera. >> stay long the name. previous all-time high was 190 or so. i think it eclipses it over the next couple days. >> etsy pricing at the top of

the range. the site has nearly 20 million active buyers. some say the stock could be a takeover target so we thought we'd join in on the fun. so we ordered this off the site to look like one of the traders. which trader do you think it looks like? tweet us at cnbc fast money with your vote. >> it's obvious. >> we'll tell what you it is and which trader it's modeled on after the break. in fact, the number of mris has increased by ten percent a year. and a radiologist might view a thousand images to find one tiny abnormality in shape, contrast or movement. because it's so challenging, a research project is teaching ibm watson to see. in the future, it could help clinicians spot key patterns quickly and precisely. ibm watson is working to make healthcare smarter every day.

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etsy pricing its ipo less than an hour ago coming in at the higher end of the range, 16 bucks a share, raising $267 million. it's scheduled to start trading tomorrow here at the nasdaq under the ticker etsy. so let's bring in cnbc contributor ed lee who is a managing editor of recode. great to have you with us. >> sure. >> $1.8 billion. >> $1.8 billion. >> who would buy it? you actually think it's going to be public but it's going to be bought. >> oh, you mean who is going to go in afterwards and -- well, there's a lot of opportunities out there for big players. amazon is sort of the most obvious. they're now getting into more the marketplace side of the business as opposed to just the

e-commerce side of the business where they're holding onto inventory. another one to look ought for is alibaba. their business is essentially the same thing. it's marketplace, a little different, pairing up buyers and sellers, where etsy it's vendors and consumer but it's the same kind of model. >> how concerned should i be on their filing when they say we have a history of operating losses and we may not achieve or maintain profitability in the future? they don't exactly sound like they're screaming positive. >> that's the jeff bezos playbook. don't expect any profits from us anytime soon but we are going to grow the business and we're going to do everything we can to grow the business. if you want to buy into us, that's what you're buying into. >> i know bezos doesn't need etsy but why would he want -- >> he could build it on his own. in a way he's doing that. an interesting dynamic, what amazon is doing is they're trying to play both sides of the fence. having items they hold onto inventory which they sell is

better for them but the risk of holding onto inventory. they also have a program where they have sellers selling on their platform. the risk there though is they don't control the inventory. so maybe it doesn't ship on time, maybe the package isn't done properly. so what they're doing is they're trying to hold things like, you know, warehouses and fulfillment centers. we're not going to hold the inventory or own the inventory but we will do the process for you so the customer is satisfied. that's a risk factor for etsy going forward, you know, is that they don't control the inventory -- >> it's a great business. >> you don't hold onto the risk but you don't control the inventory of trying to grow it either. that's the side you have to look out for. >> in 12 months, will etsy be a standalone company? >> look into my crystal ball and see. look, i think there's more players no come into the space. i think they cornered a part of the market that amazon, ebay, whatever it is haven't figured out yet. so they can still hold strong even a year from now. >> thanks for coming by. >> sure, anytime. >> before the break, we had asked you guys which trader you

think this looks like. we're going to give you hints. mench. >> i don't sound like that and i search don certainly don't look like that. >> all the gray here up here. >> it's guy adami. and by the way, we ordered this off etsy. it's custom made clearly because it looks so much like guy. it's not a sock puppet. it's actually a glove club cover. so this is what you do with it. but i like using -- >> are you concerned it looks like guy or the fact that you're ordering guy sock puppets? >> i didn't order it. >> it's not a sock puppet. it's a club -- >> but i like this use for it much better. >> you don't do me nearly as well. it's just -- you don't sound like me. you certainly don't look like me. >> get it done. >> yeah, sure. anyway, still ahead, the fed's rate hike is coming. we'll somehow you what happened to the markets the last time we

saw a hike like this. could be as exciting as mario draghi getting confetti bombed at today's conference. we'll break it down next.

after flying high last year, united continental stock has

been losing altitude but one trader is making a long shot bet it will take off in a few weeks. dan nathan is here with the action. >> crazy long shot bet on a day that the whole airline sector was up on delta's earnings despite this massive move up higher in crude oil. today when united was 6118, a trader bought 10,000 of the may 95 strike calls paying 50 cents. that's $50,000 in premium that the stock will be 50% higher in a month from now and, listen, i could think of a whole heck of a lot of pays you could take $50,000 and burn it up and this is not one of them. just real quickly at the chart. when you think about it, it's been basing here in the low 60s here. these payout up here. i have i don't idea what's going on. this is not something you want to follow. >> thanks for that. time for "ask kensho." fl nbc universal has a minority stake in kensho.

let's get to our very first question for kensho. matt h. asks what sectors and industries perform best there three months before and after a rate hike? very good question. so what we did was look at the times there's been a lull between rate hikes like we're seeing right now and what the market reaction was. there were three times where a rate hike came after a lull like this since 1994. here are the results. two best performing sectors three months before a rate hike are materials with an average return of nearly 12% and industrials with an average return of 10%. both sectors traded positively 100% of the time. so every single time that's happened. the who worst performing were consumer staples and financials. the only sector with a positive return was energy and it only traded about a third of the time. the worst two performing sectors after a rate hike are consumer staples down an average of 7% and financials down an average of 5%. so matt, great question. what do we do with this information? >> every time is different.

you look at that and to me if we had a rate hike tomorrow and we felt like they were going to get 50 bips out of the fed, i think people would buy financials. the reasons industrials and materials were up is because the u.s. economy was so strong are these things are the uber kind of cyclical ways to play it and that's usually the things that tell you that. to me i think it's very interesting but this time i think it's very different and i think the reason why they will hike will be for different reasons than they were the last two cycles. >> all right. got a question you'd like to answer on the show, tweet us @cnbcfastmoney and we'll keep featuring the best questions on the show. when the world moves,

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time for the final trade. tim? >> hong kong and chis stocks have been fire. i sold my fxi on a spike. i think this trade continues but too much. >> grasso? >> btu, stated earlier on the show. trades at $5.30. i got long. >> dan? >> go pro i'm thinking about a long trade into the earnings. i don't want to be there on

april 28th but maybe it squeezes into it. >> guy adami and friend? >> puppet says itg group will get you done. >> i'm melissa lee. see you back here . my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a good decision somewhere. "mad money" starts now. high, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money" and cray mayor ka. i am trying to make you money. my job is to teach and educate you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me jath jimcramer are too many people betting against this market? it sure felt