i'm from massachusetts. >> really pesht the panel. "fast money" coming up in a few moments. >> i have never seen "star wars," kelly. >> i remember i was -- i found that out on "power lunch" today. but you're not alone. >> dennis gartman has a shocking prediction. and you will want to hear that. >> in that case straight over to you guys. >> "fast money" starts right now. i'm melissa lee. tim seymour, steve grasso, brian kelly, and guy adami. netflix up 18% hitting an all-time high. one analyst says do not sell yet. the stock is going to 900 bucks a share. we have the details. and a bold prediction on greece from dennis gartman. find out why he's worried about the action in europe. plus stock therapy. two biotech conferences coming up. which stocks can be big movers on the news. strong dollar no more. the u.s. dollar dropping today on the back of comments from atlanta fed president dennis lockhart that the fed's interest

rate plans were being complicated by outside factors. today the move on the dxy not a big one but for the week it's down 1.8%. >> i thought it was a really big move. the way assets are responding to the dollar is exactly how they were not before so the correlations with the dollar have been broken and if you look at the things that are working here, emerging markets have outperformed the s&p by 10% over the last 20 days. this is a breakout that you haven't seen, a sustainable breakout that's getting to a place where you can make a call that after four-plus years of underperformance, em is finally doing something. they were holding serve which means doing okay when the dollar was rallying. i think the miners and resource plays are exactly where you want to play because they are the ones that also i take the view that commodities are bottoming or have bottomed. therefore, a lot of these guy kansas city rally. you don't need a super cycle. commodities are so beaten up, the sentiment is so bad, these things are working. >> and you went into the commodity trade like a month ago. >> exactly. on the idea that you'd have some kind of relative value move

which tim is talking about, that they are so beaten up that if there is still this cash out there, it's going to be looking for a home. that's one place. i actually thought a month ago the fed would talk the dollar down, so i guess i was early but that was wrong. now the fed is talking that dollar down. but, you know, tim has talked about emerging markets. he's been talking about that breakout for a while. the other side of that is as commodities go up and as oil goes up, some of the developed markets that have done very well on weak oil might have a tough time. i'm thinking japan, those of you in dxj might have a tough time and even europe as well might have a tough time. but japan sticks out to me. at least take some profit approximates. >> because they have to import most of their oil. >> so they're very exposed to that. >> at the same time we have the opec report saying production in the u.s. would peak in the first half of the year and then -- >> when you have bearish news and bullish price action, the news flow in terms of -- just in terms of the oil glut should have knocked the price down and timmy brought this up. it continues to grind on. reversed again today.

that's an encouraging sign. the gdx, it looked like we had it called on a double bottom and it rallied up to 22.5, 23, gave up the ghost recently, but if what tim and b.k. just said is correct, gdx might be ready for the similar turn. >> do you think they're correct? >> i still think the dollar has some rally left in it but every time the dollar shows some strength, you get one of these fed officials talking it right back down. >> that correlation came back on today. so we haven't seen it for a couple weeks. it's going to be interesting to see whether it lasts for the rest of the next two weeks or so or if it's a one off event. now, you saw everything across the board in the commodities space rally, but i would think we came in with weak europe today, this morning. i think it's going to translate to weak europe and weak equities, u.s. equities as well. >> i caution the investors also, you really have to be careful when sentiment gets so extreme. two weeks ago everybody was

saying the dollar was going well through 2 1 110. >> so it was overbought. >> definitely got a break here on emerging and commodities. >> greek bond yields surging after christine lagarde said the country should not delay it's scheduled payments. standard & poor's down grades greece deeper into junk status. our next guest says the exit is exponentially higher. let's bring in dennis gartman. great to see you. >> always good. thank you. >> exponentially higher meaning what exactly? >> well, a week and a half ago, two weeks ago, i would have said the odds of greece leaving the euro were probably 10%. germany did not want greece to leave. germany needed greece in the euro in order to keep the euro cheaper than it would have been otherwise, but the political circumstances have changed so much.

in greece the popularity has dropped. miss merkel, who has been their only supporter within the rest of europe is seeing she and her party are losing local elections. she can't continue to go to the german people and say you need to support what's going on in greece. i would thin the odds of a greek exit before the end of the month and certainly around the finance ministers meeting later this month probably at 40% or 50% instead of 1 in 10. that's a big chang and i think it's going to get higher, not lower, over the course of the next two or three weeks. the political circumstances are working against miss merkel and mr. tsipras and i don't see that changing. >> so 40%, is that the highest probability you see? because that doesn't seem like that much. i mean -- >> well, it's a big change. >> it's a big change certainly. >> yeah, and i think that by next week after we start to see -- especially after the downgrade today when we've seen

the fact that gdp numbers in greece are weaker than we had thought, when we see the tax ree receipts coming in are much lower than expected, i think that can go up dramatically. i think you have to be prepared for at the end of this month after the finance ministers meeting and over a weekend because those things always occur on weekends. they don't occur during the m middle of the week, you have to be prepared something untoward is going to happen. >> cynics will say greece is not a big deal, but i would push back and say if greece falls, does that mean spain, italy, portugal, what do you think? if greece goes, what happens? >> guy, i think that's exactly what you have to be prepared for. if greece goes and especially after the course of six or seven months, if greece takes back their drachma and sees any sort of increase in tourist trade, any sort of increase in economic activity because their currency is far more competitive, you would have to ask yourself if you're portuguese, why don't we do it?

if you're spanish, why don't we do it? once you take out that small stone out of the wall, the wall suddenly suddenly looks a lot less formidable and more capable of crumbling. it may not happen. let's hope it doesn't. better off for the whole world that greece stays in. better off for the whole world that the eurozone holds together, but what if they don't? >> let's connect the dots. let's say you do see the odds of this happening increasing dramatically. what trades are you ready to put on? is it a negative for germany? walk us through the steps. >> well, i think in the end if greece leaves, it's terrible for germany. i think it's just horrible because i think that germany has been the proponent of keeping greece in. it's kept the euro weaker than it otherwise would have been. i think when greece leaves on that weekend, coming in monday morning in new zealand and australia after an announcement such as that, the euro will probably get battered, and then people will begin to understand, no, wait a minute, a greece-less

euro is dramatically more expensive, dramatically more valuable than a greece-included euro. suddenly you have the euro going violently higher. that cannot be good. that cannot be good for germany. >> dennis, great to see you. thank you. dennis gartman. >> always good to be here. >> let's put the trades on then. that means the dollar is going to go higher. >> i think the dollar would go through 110 in a heartbeat and i don't think it's going to happen. and i think if you look at the ramifications of this event, it's way too tied to the german banks, too tied to the european banks. i think, if anything, greece over the last two days has been noise. germany was down 1.4% on the dax. i think you're buying this weakness. europe is benefitting from the weaker currency, oil prices. >> schlumberger popping on earnings. kate rogers has the details. >> that's right. schlumberger topping q1 earnings expectations but missing revenue forecast. the oil driller announcing it plans to make 11,000 job cuts. that's in addition to the cuts announced in january of this

year. the company blames the fall in drilling activity, particularly in north america and says it expects a recovery in u.s. land drilling activity to be delayed. it's up about 2.5% after hours. back over to you. >> thank you, kate rogers. steve grasso, what's the trade? >> slumbchlumberger doesn't rel north america for revenue as much as halliburton. a little over half of halliburton's revenues come from north america. you probably want to stay in schlumberger over halliburton or a baker although all three of them are probably still buys. >> i think if you want to buy the oil equities, it's safe to buy them here without a doubt. even though they have already had quite a run. >> without a doubt, is that what you said? >> without a doubt is what i said. and i think it's safe to buy oil as well. i think you're getting to a point where momentum begets momentum for a trade here. you could see all of these go higher. >> speaking of a trade, we have a great behind the trade on halliburton which reports on monday. we talk about it and some of the same things. pick the levels zwroosh who did behind the trade?

>> i couldn't tell you. going to be good. >> is that a web-based program? >> intraweb. getting excited for the new "star wars" film? i know i am. hear what disney's ceo bob iger has to say about it after the break. and netflix soaring today. one analyst says the run is far from over. is 900 bucks a share really a possibility. plus two major biotech conferences happening this this weekend. which companies could be the big winners on "fast." to sync with your life, it gets talked about... ♪ ♪ so you can live the way you live, and enjoy all the rewards. chase sapphire preferred. so you can.

welcome back to "fast money." another analyst jumping into the fray and covering apple. fbr initiating coverage of apple with a $185 price target outperform rating. 185 bucks from today's close would imply 446% upside. that's quite a bold -- >> extraordinary fbr day. with the 900 and something netflix call, too, no? crazy. >> bringing the wood, man. >> exactly. we'll talk to dan a little later on. we have an earnings alert on american express. mary thompson in the newsroom with the details. >> the company holding its conference call right now. a quick headline from the call,

the ceo calling the quarter a solid one. the company's bottom line beat is expense controls help american express beat. revenues coming in below expectations as the firm was hit by the stronger dollar. the end of amx's exclusive relationship with costco canada, and lower gas prices. adjusting for the dollar's impact, revenue rose 1%. of course, when you look at it initially, it looks like it declined by 3%. earnings beat estimates by 11 cents at $1.48. expenses dropped by 5% so that helped on the bottom line. the company also seeing card spending on a currency adjusted basis rose 7%. that was pretty much in line with expectations. loan growth moderated from the fourth quarter but still rose 4%. am ex also reiterating its full year outlook expecting results to be flat to lower despite an 11% increase in its first quarter results. melissa, back to you. >> mary thompson, thanks for that. american express seems like it has a lot of wood to chop, so to speak. >> gave up -- it was up a buck

today, gave it back in the after market. you have to give amata props talking about the potential for this to break down. >> what does she use? >> vomiting camel. >> the stock is in a lot of trouble right here. 77 was a recent low. i think it goes right through it. >> i actually would buy american express right here. >> whoa! >> wow! >> one caveat is they don't say anything crazy else on the call. listen to why it was down, strong dollar. we know that is potentially reversing. card spending was up and card spending could go higher because gasoline prices are higher, and then costco canada was an issue as well, but canada could be doing better with higher oil prices. >> isn't this a trend change? people are more apt to get free cards. millennials are more apt to get free cards. it's down 13%. it seems like that was the tip of the iceberg. peep are taking a fresh look going visa, mastercard. forget about discover, visa,

mastercard, those are the names you seem like is a toss up. >> the longer the base, the higher in space. >> i knew that. >> longer the base. >> it's like a spinal tap song. >> disney kicking off our top trades. the stock moving higher after releasing the teaser for the first "star wars" movie in over a decade. the big unveil happening earlier at a "star wars" fan convention in anaheim, california. the new movie is called ""star wars". episode 7, the force awakens. >> you spent $4 billion to buy lucas film. at what point will that investment have paid off? >> i can't tell you exactly when, but we already are fairly confident that it was a good deal for us and it's been a good deal for george lucas as well because he took cash and disney stock and the disney stock has

appreciated significantly since less than three years ago when the acquisition was made. i think in the end the shareholders of the walt disney company, including george lucas, will be quite happen about the investment that was made. >> literally, when this teaser was released, you could see the stock intraday move higher. >> "star wars," it's become part of the fabric of the -- i mean, everybody on the planet has had to see star -- right? >> not me. >> except for you and her. >> and him. >> right here. sorry. no fabric here, bro. >> even if you haven't seen it, you can appreciate the fact -- >> have you ever seen "star war wars"? >> no, i have not. it will feed into the theme parks. >> the worst group of shots than the 1970 "star wars" storm troopers. couldn't hit the side of a death star. >> i have a confession to make and that is i've never seen "star wars." >> not even like -- so if i said c3-po. >> he's the little robot guy. >> no, that's the big robot guy.

>> so evil. i can't believe you had that cued up. >> i can't get enough "star wars." i got it on a reel. >> give america the trade. >> listen, everybody wants to say 20 times forward earnings. this is expensive. they have made that argument since it was a $70 stock. you stay long disney, as long as bob iger is running the ship, stay long the stock. everything is seemingly working for the company. i don't care it's gone parabolic, the stock continues to go high per. >> you saw what happened with "frozen" with the merchandise sales. >> studio is out of hand and there's four franchises in there that are billion dollar franchises that will continue to support this let alone parks and espn. it's a company that should be trading at a higher multiple than people think it should be now. >> i thought you were calling tim cinderella. i thought it was a joke. >> it was beyond the actual movie. >> i dare you to call me cinderella. >> we were out with a movie producer, and i won't name

names, he said days ni owns the movie calendar and they do. they get all the talent, all the movies. they get everything. up 15% year-to-date. probably going much higher. >> record day for netflix. the stock hitting an all-time high after blowing past estimates with better than expected subscriber add number. fbr slapping a $900 price target on the stock. the analysts had this to say about that call earlier on "the halftime report." >> this proprietary survey we just completed, people who are netflix subscribers, half or more than half watch netflix more than they watch pay tv. they would keep netflix over their pay tv subscription. for an $8 a month service, that gives you tremendous leverage. they're reporting close to two hours of global streaming usage daily. they're reporting 20% kind of year-over-year growth in subscribers, including growth in the u.s. and a big trajectory

internationally. >> tim? >> it's extraordinary. it's extraordinary how the entire world is suddenly changed their view on netflix. it's not to say there weren't people bullish before the numbers but you can't tell me much of this move isn't short covering and a lot of people betting against this stock $100 ago. when i see the results, i think it's phenomenal. i think it's all about the international growth though, and i think you can't impute the same success they've had so far in other places. we talked about this yesterday where there culturally could be issues. but reed hastings has made a point i think people have to think about now which is that the retention they will have for the bundle breakers and all the people that could be going toh bo now, the fact those two guys could be going toe to toe in a good way and taking everyone into their comet sphere. i think it's a stock you do not chase here. the valuation is crazy. i don't think it's a media company, but i think it's a phenomenal innovator and a stock that clearly people were short. >> i feel like the valuation is something that for a stock like

netflix and other stocks like it, you can't really look at the valuation. you can look at it, but you'll miss the run at the same time. >> well, i think that's right. and i have missed the run exactly what tim said. i thought when hbo decided to go with their hbo now or hbo go, that that would change netflix's business models, take people away from them. it's done the opposite. people are saying this is where i want to go and netflix is the premiere place to go to and they're gaining traction on that. you certainly do not short it. up today. you got to wait a couple days before you get into it but i think you're right. you don't look at the valuation on this. it is again, about are hor meme coming in? >> if you looked at valuation, you've been looking at it wrong. as long as subs continue to grow, you have to stay with it. and barton crockett. big that name. he was doing a little alamo stuff. i like the way he hunkered himself down. i dig that.

mel? >> okay. >> whatever. >> coming up next, two big biotech conversations this weekend and the major players in the space are presenting some big data. which stocks could benefit. plus, breaking just moments ago, an analyst at fbr capital stamping apple with a trillion dollar valuation. >> it's great when people says you guys simplified the markets for me. >> when my grandparents came to this country, they couldn't speak english. they own a laundry and worked hard. the first stock they bought was ibm. the stock market is a vehicle for anyone to achieve the american dream. >> you don't have to be a life lonk trader to watch the show. >> i want to deliver. i want to get it, hit it, and move on. attention investors! vectorvest mobile is here and it's free! make faster, smarter, better trading decisions with vectorvest mobile. >> i want to deliver. i want to get it, hit it, and move on. the show. >> i want to deliver. i want to get it, hit it, and move on. show.

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welcome back to "fast money." i'm kate rogers. advance microrodevices reportina loss. revenue coming in at $1.03 billion when the street was looking for $1.05 billion. the chipmaker giving weak

guidance for the second quarter of about $1.02 billion versus estimates of $1.13 billion. and saying it will exit the dense server business, which it entered into 2012 with its purchase of c micro. the stock down more than 8%. >> thank you, kate rogers. going into the earnings release it was up 6.3%. >> now it's down 8.5%. amd exists so intel is not deemed a monopoly. look at the stock -- no, it's true. it's been brutal. 14%, 15.5% short interest. i don't know where it trades from here but i don't think it's going higher. two big biotech conversations kicking off that weekend. biogen and merck will present the latest day from that their pipeline. let's bring in cnbc's biotech reporter meg terrell from d.c. >> let's start with the neurology conference that kicks off saturday in washington. investors are watching a couple things. let's start with biogen.

we talked about a month ago when they put out that huge alzheimer's data. investors will be watching for incremental additional data from that study. now, we're not going to get the data that everybody is really waiting for, which is some additional data on a dose of six milligrams. that's kind of a middose of this drug that could come later this year. investors or analysts at cowan saying $50 per share of biogen stock could ride on that six milligram dose. that could come potentially in the early second half of this year. this weekend really looking for additional incremental data on that huge alzheimer's program from biogen which could be $20 billion plus drug. on the smaller company side where we might see a bigger stock movement, analysts are watching ptc therapeutics. it has an earlier stage program in a disease known as spinal muscular atrophy which is a very rare genetic condition affecting

kids. it's a really horrible disease. they've got a phase one program. we should see additional data on it this weekend. it's partnered with roche. it could present additional competition to a program much further along in isis and bio n biogen. this drug from ptc is taken orally where the other one is injected directly into the spinal fluid. potentially some stock movement coming from pt c. we're watching ing ing a cancer conversation in philadelphia. we should see some data from merck out with some additional data. also data in lung cancer and data comparing it with competitor drugs from bristol-myers and some data from bristol-myers on it's drug opdivo. and we spoke to the ceo about what he's excited about. >> we are seeing with this pd-1

drugs, i think we're just scratching the surface. there are a number of other breakthroughs behind this, and i think this field. immunotherapy is very young for cancer but we will see great drugs going forward. >> another area people are excited about is called car-t where you are taking patient's blood cells out of their body and beefing them up and reinfursing them. we've seen a lot of good data in blood cancers like leukemia, but what people are really excited about is the potential for those to expand into solid tumors. there's an expectation we may see some early data showing how well these car-t drugs could work for solid tumors. it could affect companies like know var tess. >> you know kite, bellicum, bluebird. this is a very, very --

>> you'll be busy, meg terrell. thank you. you're looking at the car-t guys about. >> could kite is up 13%. you always get back to that what am i better off doing? buying the ibb or the individual names? biogen up 26%. the ibb up 18%. these things are roller coasters. i think you have to stay with ibb. if you think the sector and space is moving higher, stay there. you get all those top holdings anywhere. >> merck is such a tough company to call and it kind of trades like that. it's been sideways between $58 and $60 for a year. it's really where people are treating this. people know the pipeline is impressive, it's a well-run company but no one sees the kind of growth and the breakout. you're not playing this to break out of this range. >> let's just play in the space meg was talking about. bioien is interesting. i think at 21 times forward earnings into the earnings release on april 24th, you stay long the stock against a march

low which i think was 406 or so. i think it sets up pretty interesting into the earnings release. >> still ahead, our own brian kelly here has been in quite the long-term relationship with this trade. >> i bought tlt today and primarily -- the rates did move a lot today. i don't think rates are going higher. i think they're going lower. one nim that hasn't worked out that well for me is tlt but i think today you buy that. the bond market has done well. i think you buy tlt. i'm still longt lt. >> what do you think aboutt lt? >> you know, i like tlt i think. >> find out why he's changing his tune and making a very big move after the break. in the us are caused by weather. but utilities can now predict where the power will go out, within a few city blocks. working with ibm, they're combining micro weather forecasts with detailed data from local sensors.

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still ahead on "fast money," live from the nasdaq here in times square, is apple worth a trillion dollars. the analyst who made a huge call on the stock just moments ago. he will join us next. would you rather ipo edition. and three big companies going public. plus ben bernanke joining a hedge fund and this desk here is fired up about it. we have the details. as we mentioned, another analyst jumping into the apple bull

camp. dan eise issuing an outperform company and a $185 price target. joining us on the fast line is the analyst behind our call of the day, dan ives. >> great to be here. >> your price target but imply almost a 50% upside move from today's close this a blue sky sort of number you're giving? apple has to hit on every single cylinder in order to reach 900 bucks? >> i think the misunderstood piece and the golden jewel is on the software side. on the software services, we've done a lot of scenario analysis with apple pay, with china, with wearables market and ultimately with streaming tv. we believe that could add up to $2 in earnings by 2017. i really think this is sort of the fuel in the engine for apple as we look out the next 12 to 18 months, and i think it's something that's really going to be more front and center for investors as they start to skate

to that puck. >> so how much of a transition has to be made from the hardware side of the business, which is the bulk of revenues right now, of course, so the services side of the business, and what will that percentage look like in six months and then ultimately in 12 months when you say apple is going to hit $900 a share? >> so the software -- >> sorry, $185 a share. >> the software services piece today as a gross margin is 12% of gross margin based on our estimate. this is really the key. we believe that that triples over the next two years, and the key really is that hardware has become more that commodity. it's been a huge door-opener to growth. when we look out the next two, three years, it's really the software services piece, and that's something that apple is going to continue to drive at with these new product areas and ultimately that's going to be key to that gross margin leverage, to that massive free cash flow growth that we're going to start to see. i think that's what the street has missed to some extent.

i would say like misunderstanding, especially that wearables market. we view it as a $20 billion market. it's only an appetizer at the restaurant in terms of apple watch what we expect to see from them over the next one to two years. >> so any bear on apple would would say they're going to face margin pressure as it competes with other carriers, goes into other countries. you're actually saying peak margins are yet to come? that's what it sounds like? >> well, because that's really an offset. that's a 90% gross margin business on that software services piece. so that's going to go from 12% in our opinion to a third, going to give them that big uplift which when we start to analyze it, that could be an extra $2 in earnings and i think that goes to that bear thesis that's out there on apple that their best days are in the rear-view mirror. we think it's the third, fourth inning of this playing out, and apple watch is just the opening of this next chapter in terms of

wearages, in terms of apple pay, and what china is going to do to the development platform, especially on that software services side. i think that's really going to be the key for investors, and i think that's where the delta, how we get from where we are today to a stock with a trillion dollar valuation. >> dan, we've got to leave it there. thank you for joining us on the fast line. we appreciate it. >> thanks. >> dan ives a first on cnbc with his call on apple. $185 price target, implying a 46% upside from today's close or a $1 trillion market valuation. you're shaking your head. >> i think apple is a great company. i have been long it most of this rally, but he's got kind of an i potpourri approach. >> the potpourri. >> it works here. >> he's attaching a multiple that i don't even know what that is, because the contribution to the overall revenue or the bottom line, whatever you want to do here, is totally not

supported by that valuation. i do believe those things are phenomenal value. i do believe these are things that they are transitioning into and they provide a buffer for the stock. they help sentiment. i just don't think it gets you to $180 and i love apple. >> let's say it doesn't go to $185. the fact they have this lever, that this is leverage to their model -- >> here is the thing that to me is implicit in this call is that apple has to do this. dan is talking about the fact that the hardware side is a dying business and that's the bear case on apple or at least what bears are saying about apple. so if they don't make this transition, it sounds like that they won't survive at these valuation levels. you know, it scares me a little bit. >> quickly though to push back, the bears will say it's a dying business but the fact of the matter is right now it is not a dying business so they have this luxury, the sweet spot here, where hardware -- >> hardware is great right now. >> it's great, and they have the upside, the call, on software. >> and if you look at where the stock has traded, it's mirroring

what it did in the fall. it made that move in the fall where it traded from $80 to $110, back down to $100, plateaued then move from basically $100 to $135 or so. i think we're plateauing at this $125 level. i think it's getting ready, in my opinion, to make the next up higher. let me be clear, i have gotten this wrong a lot. i'm not suggesting i'm going to be right this time, but if you look at the pattern over the last six to eight months, that seems to be what it's setting up for. >> time for pops and drops. got a pop for coach up 3%. >> got upgraded today by barclays. this has been on a tear actually since about november. so now up at 43, 44. i don't know if you buy it tomorrow morning. you almost have to wait for the momentum to break through 44 before you buy this name. >> a pop for peabody energy. >> this is one i discussed yesterday. i bought it yesterday. this administration had all but killed coal and they're still trying to do it. i still think that if one survives, it's going to be peabody. this is the best in breed for me. i'm staying long and it will be

a long road but i still think it's tremendous upside. >> kb home, a drop. >> they were subdued by the weather but i think they're going higher. this is a place i want to play. i prefer the smaller cap names. valuations exist and the tail is behind you in terms of housing starts. >> panera bread up 10%. >> friendly shareholder initiatives, $750 million for panera. they report i think on the 28th. i think it blows through the 2013 high which if memory serves is around $200. >> three ipos hitting the tape, etsy, party city, and virtu financial. it's time for a special ipo of edition, would you rather. etsy, party city or virtu financial. >> tim? >> virtu. this ipo seems to say the -- the performance of the ipo is

fantastic. these are guys i don't think everyone can do what they do. if i look at the other ipos, i wonder where the competitive advantage is. they have been doing it, doing it a long time. virtu. >> grasso? >> the theme on all these ipos, everyone has figured it out and dan pointed it out on the smart board yesterday, is this small floats they all have. if i had to pick one, i would go with party city. i don't agree with the business proposal of etsy. i don't think the company agree was their own business proposal. they don't sound confident. party city sounds like the one with the best chance of being successful. >> listen, i have a personally etsy i think could be actually a really good name except for the fact it went up to 87%. mrs. b.k. is basically a whale on there, buying everything as part of her business. up 80%, can't buy it. given those three i bpick virtu. >> guy, do you like the sock puppet? >> i don't want to see party

city. virtu because we ran into all the cats that are running the place out in the foyer of the nasdaq. >> foyer. >> leverage. >> fancy. >> coming up next, ben bernanke has a new hedge fund job and it's causing a stir on the desk. find out what the traders have to say about bernanke's new gig. that's next. help northern china reduce its reliance on coal fire heating plants and prevent 60 million tons of co2 emissions? when emerson takes up the challenge, it's never been done before simply becomes consider it solved. emerson.

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time for a trade update. b.k. has been bullish on bonds but today he's changing his tune. >> so there's a couple things that have been going on. one my thiesis on being long bonds, that a stronger dollar would exacerbate that deflationary. today we had the federal reserve talking down the dollar. not only that you have oil which is raising getting to a point where you're starting to get trend followers, so that oil run may not be over. that is increasing inflationary expectations. remember in the last fed meeting, the federal reserve, janet yellen, talked a lot about inflationary expectations being low. well, now they're increasing. take all of that and combine that with this chart here, okay? this is historic volatility on the tlt versus spy and typically

bonds trade at a lower volatility than the s&p, than stocks do. very natural. look at what's happened here. this is now the orange line is bond volatility. white line is stock volatility. bond volatility is running much higher than stock volatility. this happened one other time recently back in 2013, and here is why it's important. because a lot of large investors, very big hedge funds, position size based on volatility. i do it for some of our accounts, major funds do it for what's called a risk parity strategy. so what happens is when volatility increases in the bond market, they have to cut back on their positions. now, if you look back in 2013 when this happened before, a lot of the major funds, including bridgewater, really got crushed. they were down almost 8% because they had to unwind this bond trade. so you have inflationary expectations increasing, a weaker dollar which could exacerbate the inflationary

expectations and bond volatility above stock volatility. that's a time that you do not want to be long bonds anymore and, in fact, i shorted them today. >> so b.k., it looks like you don't want to be long bonds and you also don't want to be long equitie equities. >> that's one possibility. i'll tell what you, it's cheaper to hedge your equity portfolio than it is your bond portfolio right now. that's what this is telling you. >> what does it tell you, tim. >> >> it tells me commodities are going higher. if rates are going higher, it's telling me there's more growth but there's certainly more inflationary pressure on the part of the curve that this etf tracks and i have taken the view for three months that commodities are bottoming. i was dead wrong on rates last year thinking they were going higher, not a lot higher, but around 2.75% to 3% on the 10-year which is where i think we could end 2015 and i think that's fair. >> this points you to the gold trade? >> i think so. if tim is right, thinks the dollar is going to get schm

schmizled, it should point to gold. you know what i find ironic? >> what? >> that a group called war -- >> sang why can't we be friends. irony. >> moving on. >> great story. >> thank you, b.k. >> movie rights available for that? >> am i talking here? ben bernanke has a new gig here. the former fed chief is joining citadel, the $25 billion hedge fund founded by billionaire ken griffin as a senior adviser. bernanke saying he turned down a number of wall street positions and chose citadel because it didn't pose a conflict of interest. he also said the firm is not regulated by the federal reserve and he will not be doing any lobbying of any sort. bernanke has not disclosed the salary. i would imagine it's pretty decent. >> it's wrong. it's wrong on so many levels. now i'm actually being serious. it's not even funny in my opinion how wrong it is. why is it wrong? because here is a guy that put on the biggest prop trade in the history of mankind, left before it unwound, and it's in the

midst -- >> what are you talking about put on a prop trade? >> come on, tim. >> he was a hero for a month. he will go down as one of the most vilified people of the 21st century. >> that's not the issue. >> mark my words. why? because he know what is the fed balance sheet looks like. >> you're saying many different things right now. >> what i'm saying he should have not -- >> let him make the metaphor. >> he should have seen this thing through. for him to go to a place that can take advantage of the information he has privy to, it's just wrong. >> you said two different things. >> what's different about it? >> no, you talked about the greatest prop bet in the history -- >> it's true. >> and he's a villain. when we talk about the job that bernanke did and the rolling he had role he had to play, that wasn't a prop pet. and it was successful. >> because the market has gone up. >> no, because systemic dysfunction in the global clearing systems and transfer of payments and the markets around

the world and credit and financing are now back on the way -- >> do you have a problem with him working at citadel? >> yes, i do. >> that's what you agree on. that's what you guys agree on. >> i think there's a limit to what he should be able to do. >> just to push back, how can you limit what he gets to do after? >> thereto should be a period of time. >> geithner is not unemployed. everyone goes. period of time. he's always going to have that knowledge. that unwind trade will -- >> that was hot. >> why can't we be friends? >> sing it out. sing us out here. ♪ why can't we be friends >> one oil stock traders are betting will take off after its earnings report. it took tennis legend serena williams, fencing champion tim morehouse and the rockettes years to master their craft.

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shares of oil in kinder morgan rallied hard this morning. one trader is betting it can go much higher. mike ch mike khouw is here. >> somebody bought 50,000 50/60 call spreads. it's a trade that will pay off if the stock is up at least 17%

by january 2017 and would make the most money if it's up 40% by that time. what's interesting is this stock used to be an mlp. usually you would just buy the stock and collect your dividends. they got rid of that stricture last year. now people are saying either we could have lower for longer or there's some upside profit potential. >> all right. thanks for that, mike khouw. check out our live show, 5:30 p.m. eastern time tomorrow. we've been answering your market and data questions this week on kensho. do you have a question for kensho you would like us to answer on the show in tweet us @cnbcfastmoney using #askkensho. we will keep featuring the best questions along with the answers and how to trade the answers on the show. and let's -- >> it looks like brian kelly. >> if you're wondering where karen finerman has been, we have a special treat for you. time and sales data.

split second stats. it's so close to the options floor. you'll bust your brain-box. all on thinkorswim. from td ameritrade you can call me shallow...

but, i have a wandering eye. i mean, come on. national gives me the control to choose any car in the aisle i want. i could choose you... or i could choose her if i like her more. and i do. oh, the silent treatment. real mature. so you wanna get out of here? go national. go like a pro. so we've had a few viewers ask us where karen has been lately. well, she's been traveling, but she did send us this beautiful picture of her with a camel in china's gobi desert this

morning. we all miss you, karen, in case you're watching in the gobi desert. >> she had -- she could go to the bronx zoo. it would have taken a ninth amount of time. that's a trade school, you want to see a camel, go to the bronx zoo. >> i know they have camels there. >> do they not? >> i don't know. i haven't been. >> i was in the central park zhuo over the weekend. they have a polar bear and a snow leopard. >> we have actual stuff to do here. >> sorry. >> final trade time. tim. >> talk about the miners, this is one of the most beleaguered names. brazil is better. it's got 30 quick percent in it. >> btu, two days in a row. risk/reward is on your side. >> tlt, sell it. >> whoa. >> i'm going to take the other side. i'm going right to the other side. i'm taking the tlt. we'll talk about it tomorrow on the friday show, half an hour.

timmy and i are headed to madison square garden. season starts tonight. >> go rangers. i'm melissa lee. thanks for watching. see you tomorrow at 5:00 for more "fast money." meanwhile, "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. "mad m cramer starts right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica, people want to make you friends, i'm trying to make you money my job is not just educate you but to teach you so call me and tweet me @jimcramer. tonight i'm letting you in on something real big. the method of my madness. come on, i know this is the craziest most random and bringly bizarre thing on notus