tv Fast Money CNBC April 17, 2015 5:00pm-5:31pm EDT
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and who will be very sorely missed. we're wrapping up on "closing bell" on this friday with a big week coming up. time now to hand it over to the "fast money" crew. coming up live from the nasdaq market site next. >> "fast money" starts now. big sell off on wall street. here's what's behind the selloff. worries about greek finances and sinking european bond yields spook the u.s. markets. new recogniz weak earnings in the move of oil didn't help the situation. what we saw was pronounced decline in china down 5% on the chinese stock and for the week germany decline. for week idown by 5%. >> which is a big move. germany the ends to be more volatile than everything else. we had a huge run. we tally talked about this last
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week that europe could be do for the very least a pause. now the question is i think part of the selloff today too was because of that inflation figure we had this morning. remember the core if affiliation was 1.8%, 2% is the fed's target. we're close to that. that could put june back on some people's radar. to me there was a lot of things that went wrong. >> a potpourri. i agree, people are overlooking cpi. i think greece is total brinksmanship. as you get near deadlines this is what happens with greece. next week they will get through the dead lynn. i want goes to june. adds one more thing that makes june a very big month. as for china, china futures are down 5%. an options day. it didn't surprise me europe was
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at 14 year highs. european stocks look very interesting. they are better on valuation. they have earnings momentum. i don't run far from europe. >> everyone is talking about europe how it made an all time, another new all time high. if you look, just right around that 2000 high, we're talking greece yesterday, china today. the markets to tim's points wasn't at soft as it should have been. we have to wait a couple more days. >> what you have to look at, i would have been the person on this desk last night if you told me the markets would be down 300 what would netflix do. >> sell off. >> it was up on the day. that's telling you something. blackstone we'll talk about later. names that do well on days like this are telling you something. the other sign of the coin. american express is giving up the ghost and feels like it wants to trade lower. >> bonds.
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worried about bonds. >> no. bond trades, short bonds. haven't backed off from that. this morning, actually you saw i thought bonds would be up a whole lot more this morning. this afternoon when we had that second leg down you got some safety buying coming in there. again that cpi number and oil going higher and inflation expectations going higher could push yields higher regardless of what the economy does. so no not backing off from that. might be painful. >> bonds are really the only flight to safety out there. the u.s. dollar was basically flat. >> that's the thing. it was a very strange day because you should have seen, if we're pricing rhine greece or beginning to try to so people are looking at the spanish ten year and italian ten year, great. but you should have seen the dollar explode back through 98 and a half and ultimately people
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should be pricing it back to 110. gold on the other hand caught a bid. it wants to take a whiff of all this, the reference to potpourri and begin to rally on that. i'm done. >> you have to start trying to figure out how to lead the this needle of what correlation still stands and what don't. so you wound up having that dollar crude oil off the table. the fed has really, instead of boxing us up in the corner has given us a little bit of room because it's got some time. with time comes maybe a higher equity market. >> really? you actually -- >> i have been extremely -- i have been extremely negative. i have not bought back a lot of my positions. i'm still in apple. i bought coal. btu is the name i still think -- i was looking at this morning. it should have been getting pummelled this morning and it wasn't. when things should go down and
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they don't, it should be a sure fire sign that something else is going on. >> i would note the reversal on the dollar. it's one day. this morning, particularly when you look at the commodity currencies, good news came out of the canada. canadian dollar ripped and then reversed. you saw that in the euro, in australian dollar. take note of that. maybe we'll get strong there are again but something to keep on your screen. >> we give the fed way too much credit. they might control the front end of the curve but completely lost control of everything else. my opinion. if the economy was as strong as the market suggests rates should be higher than they are and they are not. so we juxtapose one another. >> take a look at tim's final trade on wednesday. >> hong kong and chinese stocks
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have been on fire. i think this trade continues on fxi. >> our next guest think china equities has room to run. let's bring in jpmorgan's strategist. great to see you here in new york. in terms of equities do you think the economy is still rocky but that the equity market can still go higher. why is that? >> the economy is very poor and i think the analogy you should use is japan 25 years ago. remember that the equity markets have been doing very badly for a protracted period of time. you got that situation where you had the adjustment in terms of discounting the bad economy. now as you get the bad economic data we get a bit more policy and that's what's supporting the market. >> are you concerned about chinese security regulators coming in and changing the rules. does that factor in when they say you can short sell stocks. >> the environment changing. >> all these things does that
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change >> short selling doesn't bother me. when you allow short selling it's quite good. margin adjustments we saw this just before china new year in february. the market came off a bit. it was a buying opportunity. when the regulators try to control a rising market it's a positive sign rather than negative sign. your traders clearly good trade but you're going to get an opportunity to buy back. >> i do too. how do you separate and distinguish between the local chinese market and hong kong stocks or where do you see more opportunity. it's all about liquidity. >> i think it's very important to segregate economy, asia. the a share is driven by the local retail investor. you trade that off of charts. if you look at the free flow of the asian market divided by m 2 it comes out to 12% the. do that in the united states it's 170%. it's not a lot of savings or small proportion of chinese
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savings moving to drive a shares. we then have separately h shares which is owned by institutional investors and they have a different attitude about what they are buying into. but if you look at china it has an earnings profile. what's happened the more cyclical matter of the economy such as materials is only 3% of the benchmark. u.s. companies will be included in the benchmark in november. 20% of china will become technology. you have this irony you get earnings growth in a very bad economic environment but the bad economic environment gives you low discounts rates. it's a bit like the united states. you're going to see a revolution in terms of capital account convert beibility. china has a $7 trillion bond market. we think it's moving into a period of deflation. japan was incredibly long japanese bonds in the last couple of decades. $7 trillion bond market.
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china is going to open up its bond market. it's going to do that ahead of the consideration on special drawing rights. special drawing rights are that certificate of you can be a foreign reserve currency. we think that will happen. this will have a very important halo effect for the equity market. >> actually, on that we've seen tremendous amount of flows coming out of china or the fdi stopping and big ramp up we've seen in the last ten years turning around. now if people can buy bonds does that stop it. does that cauterize that wound. is china safe from some kind of risk event? >> so at the moment we have capital controls. the door is closed for institutions going in. in theory the door is closed for money coming out. however they seem to find these little doors to go through. so by having capital account opening you have a flow in which will slightly offset this
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outflow. if you think about the policy issues in china this economy is slowing. we want to decrease the pace of the descent. so i need a lot of domestic savings and international savings. >> adrian, thank you for your time. >> thank you. >> tim, when will you get back in? >> i just want to see some of the profit come out of the market. some of this is technical. the other thing is em is also doing better. so i like brazil. turkey which has been destroyed by the currency as a central bank meeting that's a place i'll be tactical. i like turkey. >> market flash on costco. >> so here's what we got. shares of costco up by half a percent. costco's board of directors has reauthorize ad new $4 billion share buy back program. it replaces an existing share
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buy back program that was going to expire this month that still had $2.5 billion left on it. a new one replaces that one. it's not a new $4 billion one. it's like tacking on another billion and a half. the company also boosting its quarterly dividend by 1%, 2.40 a share. more cash back to shareholders by a share repurchase program as well as a 13% boost in their dividend. back to you. >> thank you. steve grasso, what do you think costco? >> costco is up 5% year-to-date. doesn't make a habit of cross over the 100 day average. i would be careful. this one seems weak. they are saying all those right things. they are saying dividend and buy back. as dominic chu elaborated, might be a little bit to look into. let it settle above 146. >> netflix bucking the sell off
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rough day for are the markets. one stock bucked the trend. netflix went up another 2%. so what, i know guy said that was a good sign. does this make you more confident of netflix? >> yes imf brought up a great point the other night. so many people have bet against this stock there's a lot of people waiting to cover it. it's so hard to cover a stock that's priced at the level that netflix is. you have to look at the inter l international growth. >> do you think part of this move higher was still short covering? >> i think on follow through days like today it's impressive the way it's traded. there are people that are coat
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tailing some analyst upgrades and feel they have to stay current. i just think it's very, very frothy. i wouldn't trade here. it's a great company but i don't touch it at 570. >> you buy it? >> it sounds ridiculous. you have to stay with it. now the momentum is behind it. everybody that short the name has to cover it. people that haven't bought it has to buy it. there's some upside left. yes. >> chip stock amd getting taken to the wood shed. guidance also coming in lie. not only does this have the slow down in pcs as a concern but a turn around story in itself. it has a lot of problems. >> which doesn't look like it's turning around that well. technically $2.60 was support for a long time here. now we've broken through that. you don't have a lot of prospects here. it doesn't look to me like this will turn around any time soon. i would be a seller of this. just move on from this name. >> what do you think? >> the only reason you buy it,
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maybe you blew a lot of people out but i'm in the left swipe camp as well. every bounce in this name for the last few years has been an opportunity to sell. i think we're seeing the next iteration to the down side in the name. >> you don't even know what less swipe means. >> you are trying to get me in trouble potpourri man. nature in the springtime is your potpourri. >> that's so true. >> back to chips. >> micron. we've been saying it for a while. >> it traded well today. >> you got to go micron. amd, you have to stay long. you'll kick yourself if this thing ever starts to bounce. >> intel, to me again much more diversified data center.
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it's trading better. momentum is ahead of it. low bar, low expectations. >> ironic you call tim potpourri man. >> i don't run from it. >> his office is near the urinal. >> big movers of the day. honeywell down 2%. >> ge is doing a lot of things to restructure honeywell is a company they thought. earnings missed. i don't think this is a reason to throw this name out. expectations were high. this one for now but looking to get back in. >> taser. >> they got an order from the london police. big order for them. up 2%. actually up a lot more earlier today. got hit by the market. i would take off a little bit. it's up $10. take a third off. >> blackstone up 2%. >> all time high yesterday on a crazy good earnings release. backed it up again today. i like the name still.
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>> a pop from milan. >> stock is up 23%. headline out saying tesla was interested in taking them out. mylan will listen to offers. stay in the name. >> next week a tech earnings biounanimous is a. facebook, yahoo! ggle on deck. we'll give the trade before those big reports. and we have the move you need to make on monday morning after today's big selloff. ♪
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take their positions ahead some of the biggest report. we start off with tim and google. >> a buyer. bar is low. these guys are continuing to grow. i like the valuation. i have faith in the company. they are not throwing money into space. >> on google signal >> i sold it a couple of weeks ago. i wanted to buy it back but i think these antitrust issues are tremendous headwinds. fundamentals still don't support me buying it. i would say no. >> i would say no on google. primarily because it just hasn't done anything. i get that they are innovative and they are moving into the next phase of what google does but the problem is the market doesn't care about it. we had this big run but now it just come back. >> buy for the reasons tim said. recently the move into earnings has been counter intuitive. usually goes the other way. google is a buy. >> switching to facebook.
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what do you say >> buy. company with tremendous revenue. some of their best quarters might be behind them. but these guys continue to monetize their scale. people are just starting to understand what they can do. >> i think between twitter and apple they've garnered a lot of the attention in this space. facebook to me i would be a buyer of it. they do a lot of stuff with pay and drawing a lot more eyeballs. i don't believe in the product per se but i do believe in the stock. >> i said no to this and it's because of the way it traded just recently and the way the market is trading. going into next week i think it breaks through that. then 78 your next support level. i would change my mind at 78, you saw a down day that reversed. then i would get interested. >> you buy it. the last four quarters have been tremendous. this stock will continue to make a move to the upside regardless what they say.
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it's cheap. i like facebook. >> microsoft? >> this company needs new catalyst. >> revenues derived here and abroad. dollar head wind get in the way. no. >> no. the honeymoon is over. >> make it a round turn. no. lost some mojo. >> all four traders no on microsoft. yahoo!? >> yes. pull down alibaba getting profitability. >> yahoo! is no. it could trade stronger. it's alibaba's back. >> no to yahoo!. something is wrong with this name. >> no it's not an earnings story. no. >> time for the final trade. >> i think turkey is an outcast that actually starts to rally more in emerging markets. >> twitter. i've been long. still long. they will surprise when earnings
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come out at the end of the month. twitter. >> so you stay short tlt. tlt even though it had 1% up today especially if oil goes higher. you want to be short. >> bad day on the market. couple months ago i said my friend john highland was diagnosed with cancer, bone marrow transplant. he went got his transplant. been in the hospital for 2 1/2 weeks. made it home today for his youngest son's birthday. kids didn't know he was coming home. huge birthday gift. way to go big sexy. blackstone will get you done in terms of stocks. >> one minute left. today was a huge market day. monday morning you open up your screens. what are you watching for overnight? >> european credit spread. see how the dollar responded. today you had commodities very well behaved. even em currencies should have blown out. you should not over react. >> watch the dollar sunday night see if we have any strength in that. >> on your radar >> the dollar.
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if you see strong dollar you'll see tremendous headwinds for the marketplace going forward. >> how earnings come out and if we can see continued strength in the bond market which i do believe we will. >> see you back here on monday. don't move. what's the sector that could signal more trouble for stocks instay right here options action is right after this break. [ male announcer ] eligible for medicare? that's a good thing, but it doesn't cover everything. only about 80%
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we're here at the nasdaq on a very tough day for stocks. traders getting ready to give you their best moves. but first here's what's coming up. that's why people are flocking to vegas. casinos have crapped out. is it time to double down. how would you like to buy facebook for less than three bucks. we'll show you how. talk about a bank job? >> take one of those big envelopes and put as many hundreds and 50s as you can put in it. >> time to get out? the action starts right now. live at the nasdaq markets. if you're just tuning in it's been a rough day for the stocks.
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