monday april 20th 2015. "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ ♪ how dare you ♪ i miss you ♪ . this is "squawk box." >> good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on n-d -- cnbc. guys, welcome. >> nice to have a packed table at 6:00 a.m. >> there you go. bright and early. >> you were putting out your email i saw that add -- at midnight? >> 4:45. i finished it at 4:15 this morning. this is the middle of the day for morning money. >> no naptime today. we're going to take you right through. >> it's going to be a big nap time this afternoon. >> after the show is over. we were just listening to a little bit of miranda lambert this morning. she had a huge night last night

at country music awards more than 70,000 fans back the at&t stadium in texas. that broke the guinness book of world records for the most attendance at a live award show. she took home three awards. luke bryan won the entertainer of the year award that is voted on by fans. let's get you up to speed in the markets. check out the futures board. this morning, the futures actually indicated up by triple digits. the dow looking at a gain of 120 points. s&p futures up 12 points and nasdaq up by 23. we've got a couple of other big stories. earnings central, morgan stanley tops the company set to post quarterly results this morning. ibm reports this afternoon. 59 s&p 500 companies have posted earning so far and thompson reuters have reported 75% have topped profit expectations.

that's the good news. but different story emerging on the revenue side. only 46% of companies have topped estimates on the top line there. and in the big global story this morning, china, the central bank there cutting the reserve -- the required reserve ratio for banks by 1 percentage point, all of this of course in an attempt to stimulate lending in a slowing company. the other big global story in the markets today happens to be greece. the country's finance minister hitting the interview circuit this weekend. warning if the greece would leave the euro zone there would be an contagion effect. euro zone finance minister says that greece's much needed financial aid hangs in the balance and the outcome is uncertain. this is a situation where people are thinking it's more zp more looking like greece is the one

with the massive problems not the euro zone. >> and give me more money, i'll do nothing for it and if you don't give me the money, the euro is going to collapse. that's his negotiating stance. >> i don't think that's a widely shared view across europe and the united states. the obama administration treasury is pushing hard for a deal to be made. i don't get the sense that there's a widespread view if a deal is not made and greece would ultimately exit the euro zone that you would have this massive couldn't stage you don't know effect. >> it has shifted greatly. >> the deal is okay so greece owes the imf and eu money, so eu and imf will give greece money to pay the eu and imf. that's what it this discussion is essentially. >> my guess there would be some sort of effect. this isn't going to be a smooth transition without any problems along the way, but i think eu is more concerned about the message it would be sending to other countries that have some issues

too if they go ahead and cave to these demands. >> you hope that if greece says okay we want the drak ma and they get it their debt automatically doubles, spain, we don't want to go there. we'll continue on our path separate from greece. >> obviously, if the troika relents to some degree the rest will be we want a deal too. >> when you stop paying the imf, you have a real problem. >> that's why the u.s. cares because we're the biggest contributor to the imf. >> can i make one point about the miranda lambert situation. >> that situation. >> i just saw a great tweet about this. it's the only time tony romo gets to see somebody get an award at dallas cowboys stadium. >> you are not even a giants fan. >> i'm a redskins fan. i appreciated that.

got roam mow a chance to see somebody win something. >> i'm a jets fan. i can't throw out any jokes. in the meantime back here at home we've got some other corporate news our parent company, comcast, time warner cable representatives will both meet with the justice department this week. they are expected to discuss competition concerns raised by comcast's planned acquisition of time warner cable and possible concessions to get approval. this deal could potentially be in trouble for the first time and what is going to be said on wednesday and what they could potentially offer is the question. the big loser so far is time warner cable because if that deal doesn't happen that stock is going to drop. the question is how valuable is this to comcast. there is no break-up fee. people forget. this is almost like a free option for comcast. >> i don't follow it with the competitive overlap is is that

the government is worried about. these two companies are in different markets. >> i actually don't believe they are competitive. as a new yorker as a customer who gets -- i get third world cable is what i call time warner cable. i want the improvement. the argument is from the content, it's the content. >> be able to negotiate -- >> if they were a giant before they were an even bigger giant. >> combined 57% of the broad band market if they were to tie up. the fcc has got some concerns. i was reading a journal piece about this morning. the idea that it could get tagged for a hearing with an administrative law judge, that is code for we don't like this merger. >> they take them to these situations, in order to to countera deal. >> if you are comcast what can you give that would satisfy it? >> one is would they be willing

to give up 30 million subscribers, the second be would you you be willing to stand by the net neutrality laws and that seems like a situation that comcast would say agree. >> the comcast has agreed to the laws in 2018. the other question really what comcast wants more than anything is the new york and l.a. market. if you could corner those off and charter would be happy to pick that up. john malone would love that. i don't know if that's a willing construct. >> and how competitive is content now? to think that they are going to somehow dominate the control of content. it's scattered everywhere now. >> amazon people that you never had creating content before. >> here is the issue and i'm going to give you a segue to the next topic. other meeting news this morning the wall street journal reporting espn is objecting to the new very rye zon vios

packages. verizon letting people buy preset channels. espn and espn 2r in this sports tier that they are offering. in a statement late friday espn said under the existing agreements that they have with verizon and this is true of every cable company right now, they don't have the right to place the channels in separate sports tiers. that's always been the issue. it would effectively -- $7 a head if you get rid of that. this is the issue and again now we're into the who has got the power, the content for the -- >> apparently this announcement from fios the details we had gotten, were before they went back and negotiated. this a way to put pressure on the companies, we're going to put it up for public vote. my guess is espn might

eventually go along, you are going to pay us more. you are going to be paying us a much higher -- >> this is what happened with sling and charlie urgen and espn is part of that package. the over the air package. >> and everyone can see how much they are paying to espn relative to other channels which espn doesn't want to expose. >> i think most people understand. that's a good point. >> i don't think i know what i'm paying for espn. >> my guess is somewhere between $5 and $7. the. >> the big issue, there are people who would argue to you just taking espn putting it on a separate tier is the equivalent like a tax cut. $75 for every american. >> this is the big stimulus package we need. >> there is that view and it just depends on how many people you think are actually watching it. only 25% of cable viewers actually watch espn regularly but then it's like 90% do at

some point for some -- so then it's a playoffs. >> i can't imagine a household that i know of any person i know who would willingly give up es opinion -- espn. >> there's lots of statistics out there. >> maybe part of their problem is the idea of being spun off with their competitors. >> the espn is facing their own competition. mlb, nhl has their own. espn has got a tougher road. >> let's talk about a big week for target as well. there was a frenzy of shopping after the retail era announced it launch its lilly pulitzer collection. it had to shut down its website 20 minutes and limit the number of users.

many of the items are on ebay selling for double or triple of the retail price. it did create a stir and probably got people in -- checking out other stuff as well. we should tell you there is a big change for google this week. starting tomorrow it will start mobile friendly websites. small businesses could be hurt because lots of mom and pop shops are less likely to have mobile friendly versions of their home page. about 60 percent of online traffic comes from mobile applications, but i guess that's just telling of where people are accessing the internet and it's on line. >> we need everyone's view around the table. we're going tyke a vote on whether we would put money with this guy because former mf global john corzine could be planning his next career. he's discussed plns to start his own hedge fund in recent months. it would start with cash from his personal wealth and outside

investors, but the paper also saying that he most likely wouldn't be able to launch this fund until legal proceedings against him over now bankrupt mf global have been resolved. you should also note his lawyer said he was not taking money. he apparently has an office i believe in this building right here. that's what the article said. >> you want to walk over and see if we can get an exclusive. >> tim and an assistant, apparently he's managing his own money and doing quite well doing it the question is does everybody want to -- >> just imagine if he still held on to those portuguese spanish italian bond acquisitions. >> you got a big sort of deposition here. the tension being mf global took a whole bunch of its investor's cash and it disappeared and slowly getting back with the fact that he actually got proven right on his bets on the european bonds. i would say no there's no way i would put any money into it. >> he should also realize that mf is not a hedge fund.

>> it's audacious, i'll give him that. when you have to tell your potential investors let's just say and see if the cftc bar me from the industry if we don't, then you can send many money with me. >> these are what my returns would have been if i would have left them on. quicken is now turning the tableds on the government. this is one of those great ironic stories, suing the doj and hud over investigations. the lender argues it's the target of a political agenda and being pressured to settle fraud cases. let's get a check on the markets again this morning. take a look at the futures which have taken off this morning with the dow looking at triple digit increases right now. a gain of 122 points and s&p at 12. the do you -- dow was down 1.3%

last weekend as of the nasdaq. let's take a look at what's happening in europe this morning. the greece story hanging over everything but at this point it doesn't seem to be affecting the markets. not even in greece. in asia overnight, some modest declines when you look at japan. nikkei down slightly but the hang seng down 2%. a lot of concern about the slowdown in china and what officials are doing to try and stem some of those losses. we're going to talk to eunice in just a moment. oil prices a gain of 26 cents. you are looking at wti sitting at $26 a barrel. in the bond market the ten-year note is yielding 1.7%. well below 2%. 1.87% looks like a pretty good return. when you are looking at zero returns in other government

bonds including in germany. the dollar is up against the euro which is 1.07 again down against the yen. gold prices barely budged. 1,203.an ounce. >> getting in gear futures are up right now, but the street still feeling the sting of friday's nearly 300 point slide. we should talk about what happened there. the drop erasing almost all of this year's gains. it's going to be a long week with the threat of a greek exit looming. what do we think actually happened? how much of it was a bloomberg terminal going, how much was china? >> china stock futures after they closed on friday with the news were down about 5 to 6% and then you throw in the decline in europe and still some concerns with earning overall, but even friday was noise.

the trading range in the s&p 500 has been 20-20-20 20. and yesterday's close was 20 smack in the milling of that range. it was noise in no man's land. >> all of a sudden around 6:30 things definitely took a turn for the worst. it seemed a lot of different things were being blamed. the expiration of options overseas. >> the tax -- dax was down 2%. it was a confluence of those things. we got to the upper end of the range and it was just an excuse to get us back to the middle part. >> is this an excuse to buy this morning? >> i think there are three questions to this market. it's over the last couple of years, it's been qe earnings qe is over earning looking more flattish year over year. that's the main driver for the next three weeks. obviously, zero rates will still

be here debate when that changes. that earnings crutch is beginning to change and that's what investors have to be focused on. >> how much do you care about greece right now? how much do you care about china? >> greece is a big deal bras of the unknown. it's not like we've been through this before. if greece leaves this is what happens. i think there's so much money owed to the e.u. there will be some sort of deal to get paid back but greece will be a problem but luckily it's a small country from and from an economic standpoint therefore it's not going to have any relevance. china has purposely slowed their economy over the last couple of years after the massive stimulus but they wanted it to slow only so much and they want it to slow slightly they keep trying to let it slow and pump money in the question is does this get down to the small medium sized businesses. >> just watching things like we do every day with the ten-year note, it seems to me like this is more and more a game of

relativity, every day we are looking at low, low returns, just about every other place, and it comes back to this there's no other place to put your money at this point. you can look at everything the fed is doing, you can look at our economy, you can look at all those things and you are still not getting probably half the picture of why valuations stand. >> absolutely. we run the risk that yields get compressed to such an extent that if it's not much different than cash then people say why should i take all this risk in security, whether it's an equity or bond getting 1.5% and cash is not far off that and i take no risk. that's the one flipside of compressing premiums to the extent they are. >> what's your view on the slowdown idea obviously we had a slowdown over the winter months and q 1 was not very good or q 4 was not good and q 1 was not good. how about the rest of the year? are we getting a picture of that in these earnings? >> we'll get a bounce back in q 2 but we're still stuck in this

mediocrity of 2, 2.5% gdp growth, that's predom nanlly because productivity is so sluggish. >> why don't we leave it there. we'll at this point this conversation. wur going to be here the rest of hour. we got to talk about this hillary clinton book. that's what i want to talk about. i want to understand the cash involved in all of that and plus by the way i went into a big rabbit hole last night. i stayed rather late looking at the sony emails. i don't know what our policy -- i don't know if we should talk about it or not talk about it. i feel queasy about it. there's stuff about dan loeb in there, hasbro deals. >> it sounds like a good column idea for you. whether or not we should be reading these emails. >> maybe. when we come back this morning, china's central bank makes a huge move over the

weekend to jump start lending. will it work? our chief china correspondent will join us after we get -- we come back. take a look at this date as we take a look at history. e financial noise financial noise financial noise financial noise

welcome back to "squawk box"

this morning. making headlines, as many as 700 migrants are feared dead after their boat capsized in libya. if that is confirmed, it will be the larger disaster ever recorded. helicopters worked into night to find any survivors. only 24 bodies have been recover. a survivor told the u.n. the vessel capsized as a merchant ship approached it. china, central bank cutting the required reserve rate for for banks. >> this is a huge story. >> this is a huge story. we're really seeing the authorities are there much more concerned about the economy than they were six months ago. just over the weekend like you said it was 100 basis point cut for the reserve requirement and ratio. we've seen these cuts before but they just have not been so large

except in 2008 in the depths of the financial crisis. it's really a signal that the policy makers have reworried, especially after we had that bad economic data. it's the slowest since the financial crisis. what was really worrying people was the marsh data because the momentum just isn't there. it's really pointing to even slower growth. >> how do chinese officials get this money to these small and medium sized businesses that are starved for cash relative to big ones? how do they do that? >> that is a huge question. on friday the chinese premier actually went to the banks and was scolding the big banks to tell them you need to borrow -- you need to lend money and you need to lend money to the small and medium sized companies because that's supposed to be where the investment will be. that's how the jobs will be created, but the problem is that if you saw this move maybe five or ten years ago, it would definitely have an effect. but now these moves are having a less bang for your gdp buck.

it's not really having the same sort of effect and the environment over all, we're seeing, i mean i hear all the time about a protest going on especially in like the heavy industry areas in the northeast of the country because people just don't get as much work. you walk around and there are a lot of unsold properties and then the export environment isn't really strong. so in that kind of environment, are companies going to want to borrow money? >> that's just it. we've gone through the same thing here where you had regulator saying first of all the banks should have more capital requirement but also regulators saying we want money loaned to small businesses. we want it loaned to medium sized businesses and not always having the demand there for the businesses to want this. >> exactly. and the added complication is what's going on in the stock market right now? the stock market is going nuts. a lot of people i know are making 80% gains. i mean it's ridiculous what they are doing right now in the market, but -- everybody is

watching the trading going on. there's been ton of margin trading. lots of retail investors jumping in. getting very excited. we saw on friday securities regulator was trying to pull things back a little bit. also making it easier to short sell stocks which is another new concept. it scared a lot of people and then now we're seeing this move by the bp -- pboc to try to get money in the right places. >> what i don't understand about it is the target was 7% growth. and then we have this massive reaction to it and what seems not quite panic but serious concern on the part of the chinese authorities that this growth rate is not good enough. so was that 7% target 7% growth rate target just nonsense or are they just concerned about the momentum? >> i think they are concerned about the momentum. because i think they -- when the chinese government says they are going to hit a target they usually do or it's somewhere around that target.

so i think -- but what a lot of people thought was that we would see maybe a slowdown in the earlier part of the year and things would start to pick up. we still might see that but it's just the fact that it was already at 7% and also in beijing there were a lot of economists looking over the numbers that were -- the fai, all the slower numbers and saying how does it add up to 7%. it really -- it can't be 7%, so because of that there's a lot of concern about the momentum going forward, and where the economy actually is as opposed to what the stated number is. >> there's always been questions about the number versus the stated number, but you think the intensity of the concern around those questions has really picked up. >> yes definitely. >> where we'll a time when china doesn't come out with a greth rate target and they say whatever it happens to be that's what it is? >> pretty normal for them to come up with those growth targets. i don't know if they would completely do away with the growth target because it would -- from a national level,

just because it's been such a major part of their economic planning. i'm not sure that they would do that. >> sorry. so the pboc is now potentially falling into the same trap as every other central bank is. you create all this liquidity, excessive debt and then you slow because of the excessive debt and you try to create more liquidity to cushion that because the diminishing returns set in and spinning your wheels and monetary policy is effective. >> a lot of people have been drawing comparison to china and say maybe it's just behind where a lot of developed nations already are. we're going to have to see it. it's definitely disconcerting. a lot of people are concerned. >> is there a risk of bubble creation? >> the markets are nuts. because we see that a lot of it is driven by the fact that the property is doing so poorly and

so nobody wants to put their money into property anymore and then these wealth management products were all the rage and now the government has been clamping down on that. all this money is being directed into the stock market and it goes up and up and up and what is worrisome is that there are so many new investors who don't know -- it's all brand-new and so, there's part of me that thinks oh, that would be great if we can jump in get 80% gains and the other side -- >> it doesn't work that way. the wealth management company mentions those are the trust companies. >> a central bank or government can create a lot of money and they condition direct where it's going. >> exactly. >> we hope to see more of you this week. coming up this morning, threat of a greek default. if europe is on your summer get away list we have good news for you this morning. we've got detail on drops in air fare next. take a look at s&p 500 winners

and losers. "squawk box" returns in just a moment.

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♪ ♪ ♪ good morning, everybody. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with andrew and joe is enjoying some time off today. maybe, just maybe, he's headed to the movies to see newest batman. this will be the public's first look as ben afleck as the dark night. the trailer is being shown in theaters across the country. >> it's batman versus superman. >> they are both good right? >> plus it's been afleck. anybody can crush ben afleck. i'm sorry. i love him but -- i can't see him as batman. >> in the meantime let's look at business headlines for you.

prologis is buying the real estate assets of ktr capital partners and it's doing it for $5.9 billion. and morgan stanley is in settlement atalks. the ag has accused the firm of misleading investors. we've got one more story. it's a good one for flyers and maybe i have to raise my hands and say i was wrong and wrote column about the airlines pricing. i don't know what to say about this. the average round-trip domestic ticket this morning -- this summer is now $454. that's down $2. i had written a column that prices are gone up and they had. actually that was the point, with the oil prices as far down as they have the fact that airline prices have not really

gone down $2 is actually nothing. if you are headed to europe tickets are down 3% roughly $50. the number might not be big but it's notable after steady increases. >> maybe they are down because of your column. >> i'll take whatever -- >> so many people are going from the u.s. to europe for politicalco which is launching a new european publication. >> didn't you rebrand of the capital? >> it's going to be politico new york politico new jersey stronger brand, keep it unified across the company. >> what are we going to do? >> head to europe. i was able to buy a lot of chocolates for the kids and bring it back. good prices. >> a lot of focus on europe today. in fact those negotiations between greece and international lenders are dragging on but today at least investors aren't

losing much sleep over the possibly of a grexit. the europe stoxx index is now higher. let's get the latest. thank you very much for being here. >> thank you. >> obviously, there's a little bit of a lag here. i can hear my voice at the end of this i'll try and keep this a little quick so i don't step on your answers. it does look like the markets are heating up. it does look like the situation around greece is definitely heating up. what do you think is the ultimate outcome? >> i think the situation is definitely heating up. i think our view is that markets are being too complacent about the potential for a greek exit from the euro area.

i think certain markets in the area are cut up. ecb is printing money. it's argued what we've said they have done a long time ago. a lot of positive stories around europe which we haven't had for a long time. groes -- greece continues to be a major stumbling block for europe. if we had to put chances on it i think there's a 25% chance of greece leaving the euro. it's remarkably high. at the moment obviously we're waiting for news and i think everything that's happening at the moment is just speculation. we haven't had any news over the meeting over the week. at that point we're looking some sort of resolution. we're looking for greece to sign on the dotted line. to agree to some reforms and basically for the problem to go away. there's not really any prospect

happening real soon. it looks like the situation is going to drag on to may. >> what we're looking at over the weekend, the greece finance minister if greece were to leave the e.u. it would cause massive problems for the e.u. obviously he has to say that. do you think that's true? >> i think it's a game of chess. you have one side saying one thing and the other side saying the other. you have the greeks trying to present greece as a major problem for europe. i think it will be. at the same time you'll have mario draghi saying europe is insulated against the greek shock than it was a couple of years ago. it was a major shock to the european economy. we're in the midst of a recovery. confidence is coming back to the european consumers and businesses, the last thing we need to hear it the possibly of greece exiting all the risks that that would create for european bank and so forth. so i think both sides have tried

to tell their own story but that risk of a greek exit cannot be down played. i think it's a major, major disruption for europe, no matter how much of a positive light they might be trying to put on it. >> unfortunately, you also have the reverse problem that if the e.u. and the euro zone actually back down and take some of these demands, that greece has laid on the table, they are setting a terrible example for other nations like spain, like ireland, like portugal who have lined up said look if they get a better deal, we want one too. that puts them in a difficult position. >> i think that's absolutely right. the more hawkish, most difficult comments seem to be coming out of spain and ireland and a bit less of portugal these countries are saying yes, we have a set of rules that we need to follow and greece needs to follow the rules just like

everybody else which makes perfect sense. in europe everybody is very flexible. we all know the rules of the game. you sign on the dotted line you agree some sort of program of reforms and you come back to the negotiating table and saying look we didn't hit exactly what we wanted to do and that really should be good enough for everybody for the greek problem to go away for the time being. but it almost seems like the new greek government does not know how to play that game. they are being too honest with negotiators which is creating a problem, they are sticking to anti austerity agenda which got them aelected. >> obviously, it sets up for a very interesting few weeks to be watching what is coming through this. we prsht you joining us today and thank you for your time. >> thank you. >> when we come back we're going to get political. the washington stories that everybody is buzzing about today, including that new book on the clintons as hillary

starts her run for the white house. we're going to get mr. white's view on that. stay tuned. "squawk box" returns in just a moment. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ the lightest or nothing. the smartest or nothing. the quietest or nothing. the sleekest... ...sexiest ...baddest ...safest, ...tightest, ...quickest,

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welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. a new book getting lots of buzz in the political world today. it is called "clinton cash" and i was going to say mad money. you are mad money. >> i inspire mad money. i'm morning money now. >> you are just morning money. how much is this going to ask things? >> i think it matters. the clinton camp is worried about it and what revelations are in it.

they will dismiss it as more partisan smearing of the clintons. if this guy can demonstrate there's some qid pro quo, then it will be an issue. >> can they tie keystone? >> keystone other stuff, columbian free trade deal that somehow the state department was reviewing at the same time that a company involved in it gave money to the foundation. i think the problem you have here is she did a lot of stuff at the state department. you can cherry pick a lot of those things and say they happened in the same time frame as the bill clinton speech whether that demonstrates any p sort of qid proceed quo -- qid pro quo. it says the author is tide up with the "new york times." and fox news is going to pursue some of these stories. >> these are reasonable news

organizations. fox tilts right. they are interested in taking some of the reporting from this book and investigating further. what it shows there's a giant appetite for stories about the clinton's fundraising machines and their $126 million and leaving the house in 2012. looking at how this money is generations. it's a bad story line for hillary clinton it make her super wealthy and potentially having these conflicts in how she managed these affairs of state. it's bad regardless. >> this is going to go on for the next 18 months. it's not like it's out for a month and we forget about it. >> it all depends whether he delivers the goods. we might not forget about the email story and the money and she and her husband amassed a great deal of wealth over their period in the white house. she's trying to connect with regular people. those two things are stuff to --

tough to square. >> up next there's a big beat for toy maker hasbro. the stock is surging this morning. we'll get into the story what's behind it. maybe it's my little pony star wars the avengers. we'll stick -- stick around, we'll be right back. well, i'm gonna finish packing my things. 15 years will really sneak up on you. jennifer with do your exit interview and adam made you a cake. red velvet. oh, thank you. i made this. take charge of your retirement. talk to a state farm agent today. when a moment spontaneously turns romantic why pause to take a pill?

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above the 8 cent consensus revenue. even with the negative impact of foreign exchange. that stock is now up over 6% at this hour and over 27% so far this year. sean mcgowan good morning to you. let's walk through the numbers, but also sort of what this pretends for hasbro and now they seem to be in such a strong position. stronger than anyone thought. earlier this year we thought they were going to go out and potentially buy dreamworks animation. >> well, i think that deal is probably off the table. there wasn't a very positive reaction among investors to that. company won't talk about it. i don't see that happening. it's important to look at these numbers and realize how much of it came from entertainment and licensing, not that that's not good but very high margin and that's tough to see from the outside. >> but that's what they're trying to do. that's what that whole tremedreamworks

transition was about. it was turning to a toy company to an entertainment. >> when you make movies like "my little pony" and "transformers." it's consistent with their strategy and it's a good business and that's what they intended to do. that's where the surprise comes from. basically a bunch of checks came in. it's good for them. >> do a do you want them moving into entertainment and product cycle of these toys? >> a lot of risk releasing full-length films and in these cases they're not spending that much. the fees they got for transformers is not because they funded the development of the movies, just a deal they worked out with the studio. they've done a good job of carefully wading into that water of getting more directly involved in the production of film. they have their own studio eand had television studios for quite some time. inkrement incremental but not a fulfillm.

>> we have all been watching the trailer for "star wars." how do you begin to model out what that looks like over the next several years given we'll see these movies every other year for the next six years. >> it's even better than that because what we see is a continuation of the saga in 15 and 17 and 19. but they're also in the other years, you know, the off years. the even numbered years will be doing films based on other characters and other story lines in the "star wars" universe. every year for the foreseeable future there will be "star wars" movies. >> and they also pick up "frozen". >> "frozen" will have a movie 16. '17 should be a nice, big increase there as well. >> the thing that i don't understand about this toy business. maybe you can explain this on licensing. given how big a business it is why don't the folks like disney echarge them actually more than

they're already paying? >> you know disney they get a pretty good penny for what they're getting. if you look at it this way, they're getting more than the operating profit. they're making more money off these properties than hasbro or mattel. it has to be enough money to make it worth it for the toy companies to do it. disney is already making more money on this stuff than any of the manufacturers are. >> real quick, what does this say about mattel? >> they are independent from a product standpoint. a lot of work to do and probably not even really pointed in the right direction yet. they had a pretty positive surprise in their first quarter, but relative to horrible expectations. i think it's going to take them a while, over a year to get that ship righted. >> appreciate it. great to see you this morning. thank you. we'd like to thank ben white and peter for spending the hour with us. quick last thought, if you can do it in ten seconds. peter, what is the thing you're watching most in the markets today? >> i think it's earnings over the next three weeks. that should be the main focus.

not only the q1 numbers but what for q2. >> hillary clinton was in iowa taking it to new hampshire, can she connect with average voters? >> a pleasure to have you here this morning. we atlanta tell you how much we thank you. when we come back this morning, we'll have more of today's top stories. plus quarterly results from morgan stanley. first, though as we head to a break, wall street is waking up to a monday morning rally. check this out. probably a welcome wakeup to many after last week's red arrows. right now the dow futures is up and s&p up by 13 and nasdaq up by 25. stick around, "squawk box" will be right back.

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earnings alert. more than a quarter of the s&p 500 and we'll kick off the big names this hour with morgan stanley. from a greek contagion to the euro freefall. we'll tackle the markets that are moving the markets. capital police didn't think 30-year-old elise belonged in congress, but we aren't making that mistake. the youngest woman ever elected to the house of representatives joins us on set to talk politics, gridlock and eher first 100 days in office. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. welcome back to "squawk box." this is cnbc first in business worldwide. i'm beck yy quick.

we have a lot to talk about. getting ahead of ourselves. >> among the top stories that we're looking at this morning, let's tell you what is going on. a warning from greece's finance minister. greece and its international lenders in intense negotiations. right now we'll talk to governing council member. little game of chicken going on here if you're greece you have to say the world is going to fall apart pretty quick because that's basically all the leverage you got. news from china the central bank cutting by 1 percentage point in an attempt to stimulate lending by getting cash out of those banks and also in earnings news this morning. 40% of dow industrials and more than a quarter of the s&p set to release quarterly results this week. we'll start with morgan stanley and expected to report this hour. we'll bring you those numbers as

soon as they hit the wires. the dow snapping a two-week winning streak on friday shedding nearly 300 points and giving up all the gains it made for the year. joining us with a look at this earnings heavy trading week james lu from jpmorgan funds and chief global strategist. guys welcome. >> thanks for having us. >> the markets have given us a lot to think about over the last week or so. last week we thought we cared after awful lot about greece and china and you wake up this morning and all of a sudden the dow is up triple digits. >> i think not finding central banks, that theme is continuing. the problem is that what you're seeing in china is really a response to some of the tightening that would have happened. to tie that into what is hap pg in greece, you're seeing the tail end of that in greece where the ecb can't fix the greek situation. ultimately, i think they come to

a deal of some sort but the cracks from expanded central bank policy are really showing the clear signs of fatigue, basically, over in europe. >> dan, we just had an analyst who said that he'd look at this and put maybe 20% odds that the greeks don't actually come to some agreement and they find themselves back. >> i have been joking with a lot of clients about this in the sense that i find it hilarious that people, with all due respect to everybody, people putting a probability on this one. nobody has any idea whether it's 20% or 40%. i don't think anybody has a firm handle on this because, quite frankly, i don't think they have a firm handle on it. my gut feeling is they stay in. the one point i would advance is there was a good 2 1/2 years where i didn't have a single conversation with a cliptent about greece. as you noted in the open that changed last week and that started to come up more frequently, although not frequently. but, again speaking on behalf

of these clients people just don't care. >> what do people care about right now? >> i think to sum up quite succinctly the conversation revolves some variation of the economy is in recession, earnings are in recession. stocks are highly priced. how the heck can they go up? >> your answer to that is? >> we don't know. we've been concerned for several months now that with valuations where they were. a lot of things people point to margin debt or operating margins among s&p 500. these are all strong so to speak. they don't prevent the stock market from going up. when you have a situation where stocks are fairly, highly priced and earnings momentum has slowed and central bank policy has shifted from accommodative to potentially less accommodative. less accommodative. you have an environment where you've shifted from favorable stock prices to less favorable for stock prices. i think what the market has been wrestling with for the last few

months or market participants have been wrestling with those markets with brazil layered on top and greece layered on top and that served more or less to put a ceiling on stock prices for the present time. >> james, what do you tell clients when they ask the same question? >> you know, when we look at earnings, yes, they are going to be soft and soft in the fourth quarter and we are in a soft patch in the u.s. economy in the first quarter, but we do think this will subside. the softness we're seeing in earnings is really because the economy isn't going to do well because of all the things we always talk about. we think most of those things will stabilize by the second half of this year. forecast right now suggest that full year 2015 probably looks to be about 5% earnings growth which is low. and it means maybe you get a 5%. >> are you worried about the revenue numbers? we just talked about it. the revenues are -- >> but that's -- >> but everyone has been missing on revenue. what was it 45%? >> 1% miss compared to revenue

expectations. >> how well telegraphed this has been in terms of where we've actually seen some companies beat lower expectations. >> these are big mac rofactors affecting all sorts of companies. especially the exporters. i do agree with the revenue's miss. but the story of the cycle is the operating margins and what not and that is probably what will keep driving earnings forward for the next couple quarters. >> what are you looking for this week with all the numbers coming out? >> i am looking at trends in specific sectors. energy is a clear example. we want it see that capx numbers are going to come down and companies are doing the right thing to stabilize their business. and on the export side it's very notoriously hard to measure what exactly is the u.s. dollar effect on these companies. so, this will give us a chance to see exactly what happened with the strengthening dollar. >> can i say two things real quick. that is like the smartest thing that has been said on cnbc in quite some time. the effect of the dollar is

difficult to manage because some companies hedge, some don't. just because a deal is done in a foreign country with another foreign country, the effect is very, very difficult to ascertain and give you all the credit in the world for just saying that. i would also add with respect to this week a lot of industrials are going to report. when you saw, you had ge and honeywell late last week. >> financials mainly. >> the first week is financial. a number of financials go this week, as well. what honeywell had to say, full disclosure, i own it. their full year's guidon was reduced by $1.7 billion as a result. industrials this week are going to hit on that theme. i think that for a lot of investors that i'm talking to at least, that is going to be crucial. how large is that impact. >> walter we had jack welch with us last week. his point is he doesn't think the fed can possibly raise interest rates in june because he worries what it will do to the dollar and what it will do to all the industries like ge.

>> jack welch is right. plus you've seen a tiny sprout of inflation. but we're not here worrying about inflation. there is absolutely no reason to mess up the dollar more and do things by raising rates in june it seems to me. i think he's right. >> people dan is over here moving his hand. do you disagree e? >> i totally disagree. i think the idea is if you say the fed can't raise rates because the dollar is strengthening, you are in a never-ending circle of accommodative policy. because you can't raise in 2013 because of the taper tantrum and you can't raise because of the dollar. there is a point where you will have asset classes whether it's stocks or bonds or currency or what have you. you cannot expect to exit six years of a super accommodative policy without something not working perfectly. right now, it's the dollar and i'm not saying that you don't have to heed its warnings but something tells me that our view for the better part of the year

has been that they will go one and done. if you come out in september, hike rates by 25 basis points and say, we'll see you in january. more or less. the dollar is going to stop going up and might even fall a little bit. indeed that's happened already. >> you just said september, not in june. you don't necessarily think they're going to hike in june. >> they're definitely not hiking in june. >> the crux of the argument underneath that is that they can't hike because the dollar is strengthening so much. >> you think that's false premise. >> yeah, we're completely locked into this but don't think we're doing anything. they want to have their cake and eat it too. >> i just like to disagree with people and i'll take half the argument to get it done. >> exactly. >> what is the real driving force behind raising? is it because you're worried about inflation? >> i don't think they're worried about inflation. listen, there are a lot of people with whom you meet and tell me if you disagree who look around that the environment and say, why are they even talking about raising rates?

everything is very low. there is validity to that argument. probably more validity than the rapid -- i do agree if you come down from space argument. that is to say if you just showed up today and the economy was doing what it was doing, would rates be at zero? there is some validity to that. at some points syou have to get your rates up. i don't think you do it simply because. i don't think you just raise rates because it's time to raise rates but something to be said in my world for the complete and total uncertainty of how this is going to work. and i don't mean before the crisis, strike all that the fed just doesn't snap its fingers and say rates are up by 25 basis points. mechanics behind the scenes and given everything they've done and where they are, i have a fair bit of skepticism that they can raise rates to the degree that they used to pea able to. >> james, i will say there are others who say, look it's great to be at zero interest rates, but there has to be some

repercussions down the road. we don't know what they are. >> part of what dan is saying it's not just the direction that everyone is talking about. it's the level, as well. let's say the fed had gone negative, let's say we're at minus two or minus three, would people making the same arguments that we shouldn't normalize rates at that point? if you think a terminal rate in this cycle is around 2% or 3% it's lower than where it has been. it makes the argument we need to start mobilizing very soon. >> thanks for coming in today. >> thanks. morgan stanley set to report quart ely results. we'll talk to a bank analyst straight ahead. comcast our parent company will meet with officials to keep that merger on track. rick greenville will join us next and then also a member of the ecb governing council will join us. talk about what is happening to the youngest woman ever elected to congress.

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watch out at 30 rock there. take a look at the futures right there. after what was a pretty tough friday. you're looking right now, dow looks like it will open up higher. 123 points higher and nasdaq up 24 points and the s&p 500 also

up 20 points. raytheon join as part of this move. the company is buying control of internet security firm websense from pe firm vista partners and shares of halliburton getting a boost. the company posting better than expected revenues and also on the earning side. these people have earnings. and then toymaker hasbro look to be a big winner today. you'll watch that stock because profits handily beat the street helped by the company's transformers toys and preschool division and then of course, we will see what "star wars" brings and they have "frozen" and everything else. earnings out right now. morgan stanley earnings hitting the wires. the company with earnings of 85 cents a share. that's better than the 78 cents the street had been anticipating. also, les take a look at revenue. firmwide revenue is $9.8 billion. that matches up to the $9.72

million that the street had been expecting. if you look at fixed income $1.9 billion. i think that's better than the street estimate, as well which was around $1.6 million. investment banking and wealth management 38.1. so slight mis, maybe almost in line. again, just taking a look through some of these numbers right now. it looks like that stock is trading higher on this. these are pretty firm across the board. as you see right now, that stock closed at 36.75. trading right now at 38.10. that's a gain of 3.6%. >> like goldman sachs did. >> it was so funny because we had gotten to the point, we didn't expect major beats from some of these banks like we used to get. goldman sachs used to knock it out of the park. >> showalize the coms all the complaints. the world did not come to an end. >> a return in the markets. that's how some of these companies make their money.

we've seen a volatility that came back in after a pretty dry period of time. >> yes, exactly. >> let's talk time warner. let's talk cable and comcast, of course parent company of this network. set to meet with the justice officials for the first time in 14 months since their deal was announced. they are going to apparently do that on wednesday and, apparently discuss concessions to keep that deal on track and that's what all the reporting says. joining me media and tech analyst rich greenfield. he has been given or rather he has a negative view on this deal. rich, i think you do. you don't think, you just put out a report you said obama is not going to save his friend brian roberts or something. >> that's exactly what we just said. i think the challenge is right now that this deal has been getting decidedly more difficult over the course of the last 12 months. if you look at what happened with net nutralneutrality that surprised not only comcast but how fervent that grassroots

movement thatting atually got ing aactually got the president to come out and support title two of the internet. if you look at what's happening now it becomes challenging to approve. we thought for a while the conditions would be too intolerable for comcast. we believe that the government will block through the doj or just refer to an alj, which is basically a death sentence. >> to the extent that there is a meeting about concessions on wednesday. if you are a comcast, what would you be willing to offer and what would the government be willing to accept? meaning, what does that deal look like if a deal is to be had? >> part of the problem is that comcast is seen as a bad actor or actress in the former consent decree. the doj usually does not make behavioral conditions. usually it's structural changes. i think the nbc deal is one where the government feels like there was a lot of bad behavior following that transaction and a

lot of proof has been gathered at the doj that has basically illustrated why. >> in what way, just so we know? >> look what happened with the bloomberg situation. a lot of reports surrounding the hulu situation. there is a lot when they dug into what happened back in 2010 and what happened over the following four years it makes it hard for the government to do behavioral remedies again. so what we heard the only choice is structural. >> you're suggesting that they didn't stick with the behavioral expectations. >> which is not normally what the government does anyway. they normally recommend structural remedies. the real answer to andrew's question what is a structural remedy in this case that would be acceptable to comcast. >> and to the government. >> correct. remember, no break-up fee. comcast can walk. they're not going to put themselves in a difficult position. think about what you just said becky, about verizon going over the top nationwide. new packaging and new bundles. becomes hard for comcast to want

to do something. think about price regules or local loop on bundling. where anyone can sell in the broad band pipes. >> proposing things like that. >> i think the government will want something very substantial to invest. the whole point of this transaction. i think the problem is -- exactly. i think those are the problems. >> can you flip it around keep new york and l.a. and give everything else away. would that be enough? >> sure. but the reality is you're looking at a company right now that i think based on the math would control 13 of the top 13 markets in the country. so my guess is -- >> you think it's about the markets. about new york and l.a. that washington actually cares about in this instance. it's not total numbers. >> if you want to launch an over the top video service and this is something that charlie has said. you know, if it was just comcast that blocked you from their isp or time warner cable that blocked you from their isp. if you control both of those companies, he thinks that launching without the support of

that isp would be impossible. so i think it very much is not the total number of broadband subscribers which is a problem for the government but bringing it to the next level is the control of the most important markets where you can't imagine having a video service without being in those markets. i mean imagine -- >> what happened if the deal doesn't happen, what happens to comcast and what happens to time warner cable? >> comcast is doing well without it. look how well you're doing on the cnbc side. i think comcast will be just fine without this transaction. >> twhooupdzwhat happens to the stock? >> i think the stock trades down a little bit. the real question is what does comcast buy? what are they going to buy if they don't buy this. do they go in wireless europe enterprise business? comcast is not just going to sit around. they're going to do something. >> you know the whole way we're looking at cable, programming, broadband, whatever. this new entity if itmerged more than 55% of all broadband in

america could be controlled by comcast. no matter what structural remedies you do we don't know what is going to happen next. we don't know the next netflix. >> that is comcast's point, too. we don't know who the next competitor is and our business is being shaken up. >> how do you unbundle and do over the top if there are so many dominant players. >> you all had me on earlier last week and we were talking about netflix. the average household streaming two hours per day was zero five years ago. over the top is the story. the headline story of 2015 is over the top video. i think it's really put the government in a very difficult situation, just as over the top videos exploding. hbo saying you don't need cable any more. all you need is the slogan of the commercial and all you need is the internet. in a world where it's all about the internet and all about video on the internet. do you want one company, as walter just said having essentially 55% of what is considered quality streaming

video broadband connections. you really need 25 mags is what the government just said for a good broadband connection. >> if you're right, new york and l.a. don't matter long term. >> i think you have the issue of total subscribers and then the control of the two key markets that comcast is really missing, which is new york and l.a. >> but if you're arguing you're effectively going to be a pipe long term. that's what you become. >> sure. >> they're a monopoly pipe. how big do you want that pipe being? if you allow this merger. the government's challenge if you allow this merger because time warner and comcast don't compete against each other which is facally true. every cable company doesn't compete. could they buy charter and cox and does it ever end or could they actually just own every broadband subscriber in the country. you probably say no. but where do you draut draw that line. have we reached that point where this is a dangerous point. again, we could understand why

this deal should go through. i think the government has serious problems with this transaction. and i really don't think that the lighthouse given two current investigations into white house behavior in the net neutrality situation. i doubt the white house is stepping in to help brian. >> when you step into an administrative judge -- >> that would be the fcc. an fcc action. that is usually a two-plus year process. >> i think that kills it. >> i think that kills it. that's the issue. brian has a very good business. >> really quick before we go would you buy timewarner cable stock? >> no. we downgraded time warner. they're going to ebe in a rush to sell to charter. i think charter investors hope that. i'm not so sure time malone will capitalize on that. time warner is getting better. >> you just said the reason that john malone is concerned about some of these issues and wants to do these things and then also

wants to be the buyer. every complaint that comes to them. they have to look at who is making the complaints. >> everybody wants to get bigger. everyone wants to control the internet. >> and everybody wants to stop other people from doing it. >> exactly. >> rich greenfield, thank you. a reminder comcast is the parpt company of cnbc. when we come back this morning, a governing member of the ecb will join us right here on set. ewald nowothy is here to talk about interest rates. first, google making a change that small businesses are calling mobilegedden. we'll have that story, next. and multi-layered security. it's how you stay connected to each other and to your customers. with centurylink you get advanced technology solutions, including an industry leading broadband network, and cloud and hosting services - all with dedicated responsive support. with centurylink as your trusted technology partner you're free to focus on growing your business.

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shorten the distance between intuition and action. e*trade opportunity is everywhere. welcome back everybody. google is making a change to its searching aeralithm. google changing the order of website ranking when users search from their phone or tablet. meaning those that resize to fit the screen that they're being viewed on. the change is still expected to cause a big shake up in site rankings. small businesses are expected to suffer the most because they're more likely to be unaware of the change. it could put them at a big

disadvantage. >> we want sites to be mobile friendly. the way everything is going. >> i do get frustrated when i have to dig through 16 different things. coming up monetary easing. a struggling currency in greece in crisis. just a few of the moving market issues that we'll talk to our next guest about. ewald nowothy will join us next. look at u.s. ecquiequity futures at this hour. dow opened 128 points higher.

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welcome back to "squawk box." we're listening to country music because of the country music awards last night. in our headlines morgan stanley posting better than expected earnings in revenue. ceo calls this the firm's strongest quarter in many years with improved performance across most areas. check out that stock up by about 2.5%. carlisle decide tag

liquidate the two muchtual funds it launched last year. a frenzy for the launch of target's lilly mulletzer it had to shut down its website for 20 minutes and then limit the number of users to logon. a number of lilly pulitzer items are now on ebay. "furious 7" cruising for the third straight week. have you seen it? >> i haven't gone to the movies in a while. have you seen furious 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6? >> all six? >> this is like the biggest grossing in all time. set to be the biggest grossing record ever. >> we should tell you, the movie brought in $29.1 million in north american ticket sales and crossed the $1 billion globally on friday after just 17 days in the theaters. that's a new record for the

fastest sprint to $1 billion. we should also tell you paul blart mall cop two finished the weekend in second place. the kevin james sequel was slammed earning zero percentage point rating on rotten tomatoes. i've never seen anything like that. "unfriended" took third place bringing in $16 million. "slasher" millm was made for $1 million. nice little weekend profit there. >> $60 million for this $20 million for paul blart. what do critics know? sent shocktop waves through the global markets and also on friday. this will be another crunch week in greece's bailout saga with euro finance meeting later this week. ewald nowothy is ecb governing council member and is joining us this morning to talk much more about this along with our guest host walter isaacson.

ewald, thank you for being here. >> good morning. thank you very much for hosting me. thank you. >> we have been very focused on what is happening in the euro zone, particularly what is happening with greece. a lot of people trying to put percentages on this. earlier this morning we had one person tell us he thinks the odds are 25% that the greeks will actually leave the euro zone. what do you think? >> well i think you understand it's a central bank and i'm not a guessing game. what we are trying to do is find solutions. but i also think one should not overestimate the whole story. it is of course, something very important for greece. it does not have that impact, potential impact on the euro zone as it would have had some two years ago dwl the years ago the contagion would have been much worse. how limited is the contagion now? >> i really don't see a contagion in the, let's say,

financial and economic sense. of course, what you don't know exactly what will be the psychological effect. maybe the political effects. if you look at those countries that have been seen as let's say, problematic with regard to contagion like spain and italy. so there is no problem any longer in this because their economy is getting along. we do have qe in europe. so from the economic point of view, i don't see this problem. >> so if contagion is not as big of a problem and it's certainly with portugal spain, italy feeling a little bit better. how horrible would it be if greece just went its own way? is there a glide path you could get there that would not be devastating to the greeks? >> it's very difficult to imagine that such a situation could emerge. but it would not be a very great difficulty for the greek economy, for the greek people. so, therefore, and for me this is the most important argument

that at the end of the day, there will be some solution because, as you know it takes two to tango. so we have negotiations from the side of the european union, the ecb and the greek government on the other side. and it's about a new program that has to be financed. for this you need clear programs. you need clear perspectives. you need numbers and this has it be provided by the greek government. >> that's been your biggest frustration, i would take it. what the greeks have not been willing to put forth. >> it has been it had been very difficult to discuss with them because it always took quite a long time. as you will see, we gained in a is situation that we'll have this weekend. the finance minister meeting we

expect to get a deal there. i have to say it is a threat. it will not be ready at this time. so, just time is running out. >> you know you've always described more austerity. do you think maybe that was an overprescribed medicine that maybe the austerity wasn't as nescessary and may have done more harm? >> i think it's a bit unfair tasee this as just austerity. the main perspective was structural changes. because it's quite obvious that you need this kind of thing. and, of course you can't discuss what kind of structural changes and what is the timing and if it would get into this kind of let's say, specific discussion. i'm sure some results would be possible. the problem is that for a long period of time the new government let's say discussion on principle things.

so what is the order of capitalism and quite interesting but very much helpful in this specific complex. >> but because people you're negotiating with right now campaigned and were elected on a platform that said they would do exactly what they're doing right now. which is basically to tell everybody to shove off. we're going to do things our way. they have to go back on what they campaign fund on. >> to a certain extent. it's always the problem that after a campaign you have rendezvous with reality. well, of course. nobody can help against that. but, still, it is something that i think everybody understands that it has to be in a constructive way. nobody's giving any ultimatums or so and you have to have a result. >> let's talk about the broader issues in europe right now. it seems to be working what the ecb has put forth.

this additional liquidity that has come. it seems to really be helping the economy. what are you seeing right now? >> this was, i think, a very clear message that also is so clear now at the imf meeting in washington. the european economy clearly is improving. and practically all countries, including my home country in austria. which is quite important because it's not just only proof in the german economy and it is not only due to -- very low oil prices, of course, that helps. qe has an effect and, of course that is something because of developments for the u.s. and in context with qe we have the euro. so all of this together. together with some structural reforms has been quite a positive signal for the european

economy. >> have you been shocked, though, to be looking at interest rates and looking at let's say the booms. the ten-year looking at interest rates that are practically zero and could turn negative. i mean that changes things and sets contracts on end. how big of a problem is that? what kind of an issue do you think it is? >> well in fact we do have negative interest rates on government bonds. so a number of countries that say high rated countries like austria. we have negative interest rates up to bonds off a duration of five years. government bonds in five years and it's clear this is not something that is let's say, a -- this is an adjustment process. as soon as the economy is getting stronger this also will change for the time being. i think it is something that is part of this general program. and the programs work.

>> you say that that will change. obviously, energy prices will change. the one thing that will remain the same are the structural forchls sform reforms that you mentioned a moment agoe. what are the most popular? >> we have it in regard to the public finances and public deficits have much lower now in practically all. again, with the exception of greece. but otherwise practically all european countries. we have had reforms in the labor markets. we do have in a number of countries where this is quite necessary, legal reforms with regard to the legal processes. and what is very important we had a big reform the european bank assistant since first of this year. the european banking union is in tact. the ecb now is not only the

monitor authority, we are also the banking supervision authority for the 130 biggest banks in europe. which are 70% of low banking assets in europe. and this is very little in creating and new european culture in banking. and the effects will be of course much stronger when time is going on but it has been quite strong revision. >> the weakness of the euro has certainly helped european companies. would you be surprised if the euro went to paraody with the dollar. would you be ehaphappy if it fell below that. >> the european central bank our goal is price stability. we do not have an exchange rate goal. the exchange rate or the movement are kind of a side

effect of what our general policy. it is very difficult to make forecasts, especially for a simple banker. but as you know historically we have had a situation already when there have been parody. it would not be something unheard of. but, it's very difficult to make forecasts. >> you wouldn't be bothered by it if the euro fell. >> as i say, it's not part of our goals. we would observe it. it would not have any major reactions on that. so, this is market credence. we'll see how the markets react. >> thank you so much for your time. we really appreciate you being here. >> thank you for inviting me. all the best. coming up when we return the youngest woman ever elected to congress marking her first 100 days in office. new york representative elise stefenik will join us on the set right after the break. the technology changes the design evolves

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days in office congresswoman elise stefenik joins us this morning. thank you for coming. >> absolutely. thank you for having me. >> you've been there for 100 days. better or worse than you thought? >> challenging. freshman is very talented and diverse but i am frustrated with the gridlock in washington. that's part of why i ran for washington. i have been very effective. >> is it worse than you thought in terms of the gridlock? what do we think out there in the world and then you show up and you think what? >> we have really good people in congress and people are working hard on behalf of their districts. the challenge that i see is getting the house in tandem with the senate. so, we've passed a number of common sense legislation out of the house and they haven't yet been brought up for a vote in the senate. the senate is more active than it has been in previous sessions, but still more work to do. >> do you like us making a big deal of this youngest woman bit? where are you on sort of the

glass ceiling, woman in congress youth issue. >> i think we need more women in congress. when i first started running i didn't realize i would be the youngest woman ever elected to congress. this is something i discovered after i won my primary. what is really interesting as the campaign was getting more attention, people were bringing their young daughters to events. it has been a very humbling experience and i've been amazed at the number of women across the country who have reached out to our office. i do take it seriously. a humbling feeling but an empower feeling for women across the country for both parties. >> when did you figure it out? >> the media was how i figured it out. they started covering it and the previous youngest woman also elected was also from new york state, elizabeth holtzman was elected in 1970. >> there has been in the past three weeks a recent outbreak of an old phenomenon in the senate which is bipartisanship.

going back to the regular art of business. leader mitch mcconnell has actually gotten the committees to do bills, have votes, have amendments on the floor and they're actually passing things. do we see the fever breaking in capitol hill in general because of that? >> i think it's good for the country to get back to regular order and good for the senate and the congress. one statistic that i think is really important for people across the country to realize is that within the first week of mitch mcconnell's leadership in the senate they voted on more amendments than under the previous tenure in the previous congress of harry reid. that is good and good to be able to bring forth amendments and good to do the people's work. that is a positive move in the right direction and there is always more work to do. >> do you feel like a rare breed being a republican from new york? >> actually we have quite a few republicans in the delegation in new york. i feel more of a rare breed as a young, 30-year-old woman. i stick out like a sore thumb in washington. that gives me a unique platform and a unique voice to talk about

issues in a unique perspective. >> you're new to this position. but who are you kind of seeing as people that you can work with in congress and then places or issues that you think you can really get some work done on? >> i serve on the house armed services committee. traditionally a very bipartisan committee. i represent the home of the tenth mountain the most deployed unit in the u.s. army. i have gotten to know my colleagues across the aisle dealing with military and defense issues. one new member that i'm very impressed with and i had the opportunity to go on a delegation visit with in the middle east is seth molten who challenged a sitting incumbent in a primary and he's a democrat. but we've been able tawork together to bring that new generational voice on the house arms services committee. >> is it true that the capitol hill police almost -- >> it used to happen pretty much every day and now it happens only once a week. >> they think you are what? >> they just don't think i am a member of congress. during orientation in december i

was not allowed to walk down the capital steps because they didn't realize i was a member of congress. the capital police person at the bottom said can i look at your i.d. badge, again. these steps are for the members of congress. it happens. >> congresswoman, thank you. congratulations. >> thank you very much. >> come on back. we should talk about 2016 and your views on that too. when we come back this morning, morgan stanley out with earnings earlier this hour and we'll look at the closer results and see right now it is up by 1.6%. up by almost 3.5% when the numbers first came out. we'll dig a little deeper into those numbers. we'll talk about stocks ahead on the opening bell. stick around. i care deeply about the gulf. i grew up in louisiana. i went to school here. i've been with bp ever since. today, i lead a team that sets our global safety standards. after the spill we made two commitments. to help the gulf recover and become a safer company.

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welcome back everybody. let's look at some of the stocks to watch this morning. costco raising quarterly dividend from a nickel to 40 cents a share. a new stock repurchase program up to $4 billion and up about 0.09%. sun suntrust earnings beating the street by 9%. growth in noninterest income. that stock is unchanged at this moment. we also talked about morgan stanley. that stock is still higher after a big beat it came in with earnings per share and the revenue line. up by 1.6%. not as high as we've seen earlier. one line that came out that said it lost its lead in revenue.

it lost that to goldman sachs. this is still beat across the board and that stock is still trading higher. when we come back jeremy segel on last week's selloff and the possible market moves from this week's flood of earnings. a frenzy over the lilly pulitzer. lots of unhappy customers. >> kind of like the best thing that could have happened to them. >> all these things popping up on ebay for two to three times the regular asking price. we'll bring you a live report from the target store.

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live from the most powerful city in the world, new york. this is "squawk box." welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. this is cnbc first in business worldwide. i'm becky quick along with alex. we have been watching the futures this morning and been in positive territory all morning long. the dow futures up 112 points. probably not a huge surprise given some of the losses that we saw at the end of last week. the dow and the nasdaq were

down. >> i think it will be helped by financial earnings coming out and a whole week of earnings and in the end, the market has been jumping up and down from everything from greece to china to the internal. i think after a while it will settle down and look at earnings and for that matter revenues. >> our guest host walter isaacson and we'll have more with him in just one moment. if you're also checking out what is happening in europe at this hour. some positive arrows. some green arrows pointing up. the dax is the best of that. and even greece is up at this point. it's up by about 1%. stories that investors will talk about today. china central bank cutting the reserve ratio for banks. doing it by one percentage point. stimulate lending into a slowing economy. time warner will meet with the department of justice and some of those officials this week. wednesday is the day we're expect it and perhaps discussing competition reserves and possible concessions to get approval. we had rich greenfield on the

show earlier. he is not hopeful, but others may be the stock. sort of comcast stock has held up and cable not so much. quicken turning the tables on the government and suing the doj and hud claims it is the target of a political agenda and being pressured to settle fraud cases. a few stocks on the move this morning. one morgan stanley. we just talked about this a little bit. the company earned an adjusted 85 cents a share the first quarter. seven cents better than the street had been expecting. revenue coming in above forecast. helped out by higher bond and equity trading revenue. as we mentioned a big thing for many of these financials is that the volatility has returned to the trading desks. that certainly helps things out there. a blowout quarter for toymaker hasbro. earned 21 cents a share for the first quarter. well above what the street was expecting. revenue also substantially above sfreeto forecast and hasperformance from its transformers toys and

preschool division. also oil field services division halliburton earning 49 cents a share for the quarter. above estimate. hatberten en halliburton expects the sector to remain challenged. a lot of good news on the earnings front. >> how did halliburton do that in a bad quarter for oil exploration. >> people have dropped those. >> i'm from louisiana andium i'm watching that they're not drilling more or taking some of the rigs out of commission. >> i'll look at the earnings release and maybe talk more about that too. shoppers are wild about the lilly collection at target selling out and even causing website outages. i put this in the good news category. courtney reagan joins us live outside of target. good morning, courtney. >> good morning to you. this target here may be one of the few that wasn't open on sunday because of the local blue

laws that prohibit retail hours. about 40 to 50 people were in line. the first got in line at p.m. last night. actually slept in her car. similar to what we saw around the country. thousands of folks lining up snapping up those lilly pulitzer items for target in minutes. selling out in many stores as well as online. not without hiccups because of black friday-like traffic targett says the collection wasn't fully shopable until 5:00 a.m. it limits how many shoppers can be on the site at once. target said the site never crashed, but it did make it completely unavailable for guests for 15 to 20 minutes allowing the retailer to get the entire collaboration up on the website much faster than it would have been able to do without briefly shutting it down. target is apologizing for the inconsistent web shopping experience, but it is not apologizing for selling out. ahead of the launch, target's chief merchant cathy tasa said

she set inventory levels higher for this collection than for others but with all of these, once it's sold out, it's sold out. even though target had intended for it to last into may. now, analysts say the strong demand in social buzz is a win for target. despite the fact that you do have some shoppers that are frustrated. you still have others that feel victorious. i think it's important to remember that even if none of these items sold it wouldn't have moved the needle financially for target either way. it's really all about the buzz. but if you're desperate, you can get online on ebay. you've got a lot of folks just scooping them up and just trying to make some money for being in line to get these items. back to you guys. >> courtney, thank you, for the report. thank you for braving the weather. stay dry, if you can. in the meantime becky has been going over halliburton numbers. >> walter brings up a great point about halliburton beating expectations. how did they do it? expectations were lowered so

drastically. >> also, they warned today that the revenues are going to be down and stuff. >> listen to some of the lines they say on this. north american activity down about 50% from the late november peak. in five months they've seen activity drop 50% in north america. they also say that pricing pressure in north america will be there until the rig count stabilizes. no clue when that is going to happen. take a look at some of these numbers. if we can look at the stock, yeah, check out what happened to the stock over that period of time. since late november, you saw a big crash that came down. that was completely tied to the decline in oil prices that came right off of those things. you start talking about some of the earnings. the quarter they earned 49 cents versus the 73 cents they had earned a year before. expectations for the second quarter. 22 cents versus 91 cents a year ago. even though i think this is kind of like -- >> back in november when you said the rig count was higher. that's when they agreed to buy baker hughes. >> i think you're right. looking that timing. >> interesting how that will play out. >> kind of amazing to show how

the streets was able to catch up with some of these big things. we saw this last week with johnson & johnson massive hit from the dollar fluctuations and the strong dollar really hurt them in a big way, but the street was able to anticipate that. that's why maybe a lot of the pain has been baked into what we are hearing from some of the stuff this quarter. >> you've seen that in energy stocks this quarter for a while. >> i want to talk about two other things. we have been talking about the past couple weeks but a lot about activism and whether it's a good thing or a bad thing. we had larry fink on the show who suggested that we're out of balance. out of sync. you're on the board of a publicly traded company. what do you think is going on right now? >> i was very interested in larry fink's letter like not only saying things like don't overreact, but also have a little bit of a long-term perspective. you have two things happening. the activism combined with the balance of a company deciding how much to reeinvest in the

company versus how much return to shareholders often done with stock buy back. most of the activists tend to push for more stock buy backs because it bumps the stock price for a while. the question is with which companies, apple is doing a huge stock buy back with which companies does that mean well maybe you're not investing for the future or not. >> that is the question. and we also the whole thing is absurd. if there was actually demand and we had an economy that made sense, you would invest in your business. you would either, either through rnd or buy new things. but if the economy is not there, the best thing is to give it back to the investor. >> one of the largest things in the economy right now is the fact that there's no huge new things. we have watches or whatever. this notion that big data or pharmaceuticals are going to be transformed from biotech and

bioengineering that may be on the horizon. but not a big break through the way the internet and and things like that work. the question is that causing companies not to reinvest in things was that being caused by a lack of research and development on the negzal level where it's been descimateddecimated. the national institute of health and all the people that kind of created the computer and the transistor in the first place, you know by supporting things like the bell labs and the lincoln labs that we're doing it in the academy or in corporate america. that was an eco system of research and development that starts right after world war ii and leads to the most amazing leads of new products and new technologies. it's hard to quantify it but you kind of feel that over the past decade or so with cutting back on research and development, there is just nothing huge causing a boom.

>> okay. >> you can understand almost why that's happened. particularly with the great recession. a massive decline in tax revenue that was coming in. also, a lot of problems that have cropped up in terms of where are we putting some of this money. other initiatives that we have taken money and what we spent it on. >> solar or whatever and then it becomes a political issue. so yeah that consensus of the eisenhower years where you built interstate highways and that become internets and that sort of thing. that consensus has now been lost. >> would you, i guess my question is how do you solve that? how do you resolve that issue? how do you find a way to find things that say, hey, this is a perfect place we should be investing? >> there is a guy who should be more of a historical hero who ran, you know during world war ii and then eisenhower. the research and development. he was an mit person professor. he's you know ran government research. and he said it's like seed --

you don't know what is going to grow, but you have to do the basic research. i don't think we have that confidence in ourselves now then when wae went to the moon and did space programs and created nasa. that confidence has been lost. and i think there's no easy answer to your question like yes, we know that will pay off in seven years. >> right. >> i just want to change topics on you for one second. i was telling becky earlier. i lived in the rabbit hole of the sony/wikileaks e-mails which you are in because you have a sony movie with steve jobs and all this. i'm curious, as a former editor what is the media supposed to do with all this stuff? the lawyer says it's completely illegal for this to be out there, it is stolen information. publications publishing some of these e-mails. i sat in there reading, it was amazing amazing. as somebody who is just a curious person, it's fascinating. but how do you think about the issues, the ethical issues.

the legal issues. >> i think you have to take a shower after you see some of this and it's ethically wrong to be hacking in and reading personal e-mails. there are some you can probably justify. relationships with government or whatever it may be. but in the end, our society works only if you can trust that you have normal communications. and, you know i'm not burned in it, i don't have a dog unthis hunt but it just seems unfair that very personal things people said in e-mails or put out there for purposes rather than journalistic purposes. >> would you change the way you e-mail? >> i now have programmed into my little thing. i just hit, pm for phone me because i don't want to put it in an e-mail when somebody gives me a long e-mail i just hit phone me. >> solution. >> you're part of the problem if you read it all. >> i'm a journalist. i'm trying to find out stuff. coming up when we return verizon's plan to roll out new

customizable packages. what could be the start of thun bundling package. we're going to talk about the break up of the tv bundle next. and then later on unofficial national weed day. it's unofficial national weed day. had it on your calendar. a look at how native american tribes are poised to move into the lucrative marijuana business. "squawk box" coming right back in a moment. there's nothing more romantic than a spontaneous moment. so why pause to take a pill?

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welcome back to "squawk box." the futures are on a tear. dow futures above 110 points and s&p futures up by 10 and nasdaq up 17. this comes after a week where the dow and nasdaq were down by 1.3%. we'll keep an eye on this as we get closer to the opening bell. among some of today's stocks to watch. procter & gamble. the company raising its dividend to 3%. to just over 66% a share. symantec. citing negative catalyst and a potential break-up scenarios. the firm says that market

dynamics are likely to give the golf club maker a powerful and sustainable comeback. the consumer may be happier with verizon skinny bundle but espn isn't seeing it as a home run. espn said such packages wouldn't be authorized by the current agreements. and our guest host walter isaac isaacson this morning. can you believe that verizon would do this without having consulted disney? >> it's surprising. you wonder whether they did it in order to provoke a reaction because i'm sure the public is going to be on their side. but it is very surprising. and disney is not the only one we've heard from. we have spoken to the other programmers on friday and heard and got the same reaction of we did not give them permission and they said we had heard nothing about this until they released it. >> what do you think is going to happen? >> i think they'll probably have to cease and -- >> also the provoke in the negotiation.

we were talking earlier espn the public is going to want it unbundled but espn is going to say, don't bring along all the other networks. just really matter of price and what tier you put yourself in. >> it's funny. the last time we were on the show you and i were talking about where unbundling is happening. if you think about the whole value change. shows are being unbundled from networks. that's what netflix is doing. the media conglomerates are being unbundled from each other. everyone is waiting for the networks to be unbundled from each other and that's the sticking point here. that's the part that is not happening. >> what verizon put out is you can have this basic package. if you want a sports network, we'll give you a sports tier. if i'm espn no one is riding my coattail. if you are the leading channel in that industry, you don't want to be bundled. >> they'll lose a lot of viewers, i would imagine. >> if you do i want to renegotiate so you're paying me $25.

>> what espn is saying sorry, but you can't have abc unless you also have esfpn in the same package and you can't have espn unless you also have the disney channel in the same package. >> so it's waiting for alacarte. >> i think you're right and you're right, the unbundling of the programs and the channel from to the meducompany. the pressure they're under is in

the end the digital age eventually it seems to me -- >> you're absolutely right. ten years ago this was the controversy. everybody was obsessed with unbundling and ala carte and the breakdown of the eco system in 2005. at the time we said look it's not going to happen and the train is not going to leave the station until the media companies say the train is going to leave the station. now, they're starting to. well they're going to have the same they're going to have the same negotiation with disney and with the media companies. but, you're right, it's starting to happen and you're seeing bigger bundles. >> why are they letting it happen? >> the media companies aren't letting it happen. no here's but, again, here's the distinction and i don't want to lose this distinction. the sling tv product from dish says you can pay for the entire disney ebundle, but you don't

have to take the viacom bundle. that's a step towards unbundling but it's different than the step people are waiting for. i want this particular disney channel. >> when you think about espn and we were talking about the statistics and you probably know them off the top of your head. what percentage of people who have cable at home watch espn given it the highest cost channel in the system? >> over a meaningful period of time it's about 28% of people i think. but here's a really interesting stat and i remember when there was -- >> only 28% of people. >> but wait. i remember when cox was having a dispute with disney. and over espn. i think it was back in 2008. they did some research and showed that only 25% of people surveyed said they would pay for espn. they later said about a year or so later, they said to me well be a careful consumer of research. because what we said was 25% of the people would take espn. turns out that 75% of households

have one of those people in them. so, a much higher percent nl of households would actually take espn. >> but this really does tie into the thing that we talked about earlier which is time warner comcast. who has the balances of power whether it's a pipe company, a bundling company, the media company or whatever. and in the end, the ability to get things on the internet. when the netflix come along and, you know apple comes along. that's got to just cause a lot of jinx. >> the pressure on the media companies, right, is the advertising picture looks terrible. shifting to digital and that's putting pressure on them. no growth in the equation for affiliate fees the quantities are now declining and that's putting pressure on them. so, everything is getting channeled towards higher and higher affiliate fees and the last thing they want to do is reduce their fees by starting to unbundle. you're seeing them like you said, pushing back and circle the wagons around the old

ecosystem but it's hard to do. >> is comcast going to walk? >> comcast isn't going to walk but i said the last time i was on the show it lost its inevitability and is it a straight thumbs up or thumbs down from the doj and it is not going to be the conditions are too strict we're walking. it is going to be either yes or no. >> you don't think it is the conditions. >> i don't think so. remember comcast promised to abide by net neutrality the day the deal was proposed. some that was reported this morning, even though net neutrality and that is almost certainly not true. but, remember net nutrality. remember we were talking about title two are very different things. the problem is it would be really hard for the doj or the fcc to say the title two framework is going to be unilaterally applied to one company, even as a condition. and, so it's probably not that. and, therefore, whatever the conditions would be around net

nutrality probably wouldn't be all that bad. i think again, a simple it's either a thumbs up or a thumbs down. >> you're betting -- >> we said last time we're pretty close to a coin toss and i think it has to be lower than that now. but at least mercifully we'll find out sooner rather than later. >> thank you for being here this morning. appreciate it. coming up, more news from morgan stanley plus strange events yesterday at wrigley field. we'll show you right after the break. financial noise financial noise financial noise you can call me shallow... but, i have a wandering eye. i mean, come on.

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morgan stanley results beating the street. mary thompson just got off the phone with the ceo on her way to google. is this her last quarter, mary? >> this is her last quarter. she had quite an impressive run there at morgan stanley. we look forward to see what she does at google. she commented on the quarter, of course, which for morgan stanley which was very strong beating on the top and bottom line. but most importantly, the company coming in with a return on equity. once you take out dba of 10.1%. the 10% level has been a target for morgan stanley for a number of years now. she noted while this was a strong quarter helped by loan growth and wealth management and trading. she did say going forward while the roe will not be a straight line out but a number of levers in place where they try to maintain that level, including the way they basically organized their fix or fixed income commodities and currency

businesses and a smaller balance sheet and lower rwa and that helped in the first quarter along with a strong performance. and investment bank dropped to 38% from 41%. you can use this as a lever to improve roe, basically, by cutting that ratio going forward. also, she noted the company hasn't begun to execute on the approval of the share purchase and dividend. that should happen in the second quarter and that too, drive on the roe in the future. quickly on mra, it is stronger than it was year over year. what is driving that cross border deals with activists. morgan stanley up 2% in the wake of those better than expected first quarter results. becky, back to you. >> mary thank you very much. again, mary thompson she'll follow this as we get through the day, as well. when we come back this morning. roger atman on the fate of greece. he'll join us after the break. then millennials and money. what they're saying about the

market and how they think about investing. can marijuana take over the casino business as a cash generator for native american tribes? jane wells has that story on national weed day. it's 420, april 20th. there's a lot of debate about why 420 is weed day. some people say it is when they used to smoke right after school and other people say -- >> the income tax thing. >> maybe that's it. we'll talk about all those things when "squawk box" returns. stick around.

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welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. let's catch up on some of the earnings reports that have just come in. cruise line operator royal caribbean reported quarterly profit of 20 cents a share. 7 cents above estimate. the revenue was well below forecast and the company cut its full year forecast because of higher fuel prices and a stronger dollar. that stock is down by 6.5%. mnt bank earning $1.65 a share and that missed estimates by ten cents. did see higher revenue from mortgage banking and in line with forecast. that stock is basically flat at

this point. a wild day at wrigley field in chicago. the cubs were hosting the san diego padres when pitcher jon lester fields a grounder and gets stuck in his glove. lester has to take off the glove and throw it to the first baseman for the out. nicely done. during the play the first baseman had to drop his glove to catch lester's with two hands. lester finished the day striking out four allowing two runs on six hits and a glove toss for an out in 5 1/3 innings. and then there was this. a cubs fan reeled in a foul ball in his beer before partaking with a celebratory chug. this is the way you got to do it. baseball and all. second day in a row it's happened at wrigley and the third time in two days it's happened at a major league game. >> that looks like my cousin. >> be one of the great new trend. catch the ball with your beer. >> get something extra for

catching with the cup. >> you get on tv and get on "squawk box." we'll talk about the yearo zone and the global markets bracing for greek default. the founder and chairman and blocking out trying to block out all that noise and joining us now with his read on the u.s. economy, as well. how much can we block out all this noise? >> sure. >> is this noise to be blocked out? >> well i think that one of the myths about or misperceptions about the greece situation is that it is going to be resolved soon. actually, i think it will take a couple more months to resolve or could because the imf debt payment isn't due until may 12th. it would take the board about a month to meet. we could be sitting here two months from now still unsure. >> you're in the camp of let them go or no? >> first, i think it's morelike

ly there will be a negotiated agreement and that it will be solved and the not more likely. and, to me it's a better that would be better. that greek remain in the euro than not. i agree with what was said earlier this morning. unlike a couple years ago, the consequences of a failure here in terms of contagion are much less given, obviously, what has happened in terms of spain and italy and so forth. i think, "a," more likely that we solve this than we don't or europe solves it and, brk "b"," i think that would be better. >> if you were advising the greek government what would you -- i mean, their only leverage point is to basically put everyone's hair on fire which is going on in terms of playing chicken and suggesting if you don't give us more money which effectively we discussed in the previous hour. you'll lend us more money to pay you back. >> well that's very common. >> how dangerous, though is that rhetoric in the marketplace? >> oh, i think the market is looking through that.

i think people appreciate very difficult position that the new greek government is in because, of course, it came to power on the prezumpsumption on the argument, we'll we'll stop the imposition of prosperity on us. the key conditions here which are labor market reform and pension reform are steps that have to be taken and, ultimately, will be taken. and the government is in this very, very difficult position and we promise to stop those reforms. but on the other hand know they are required for a solution. so, i think there will be a way through this but it is really tough. >> you think you could make a bit of a tradeoff where they do the structural reforms, but they ask for some relief on the astaireusterity which there may be truth to their complaint that the austerity is not the right medicine. >> what you learn in big, big

restructurings, whether they're government related restructurings or private sector ones is that necessity is the mother of invention. so, yes, there could be that. but i think all parties still want a negotiated solution. and don't want this to blow up. therefore, there will be quite late in the game as i just said, that could be two months from now. there will be concessions on both sides, most likely. but this core question which really faces spain and italy, as well as grease, andfwrooes, and a lot of uthother countries and certain related issues greece is ultimately going to go down that road because it has to. and it probably as usual, will be a slow complex, painful process, but ultimately it will. >> roger, we had ewald nowothy on earlier on ecb on the council. as a voter member there he talked about a lot of the gains

that they've seen in terms of europe's economy. one thing we talked to him about is the weakness of the euro especially relative to the dollar. how that has been a huge assistant. >> plus. >> plus and here in america they said that is the only way they can make things happen. at the central bank they don't look at it that closely. not something they're focusing on just an after effect. this is a currency war at this point, right? >> i wouldn't describe it that way, becky, because why is the euro so much weaker than it was six, nine months ago. a lot of that has to do with interest rate differentials or the expectation of interest rate differentials and expectation the fed will begin, however slowly, and in small steps it's tightening and the ecb. >> it's a game of relativity. >> there is a huge debate in the world about whether we are in a currency war and whether nations

are intentionally devaluing their currencies. you see this playing out in the upcoming debate on the transpacific trade agreement in the united states which will be a fascinating debate i think. and a very close vote. but whether there is whether the nations are intentionally devaluating their currencies just to promote exports and recovery. i don't think that is what is going on with the dollar and the euro. after all, two years ago when the fed or three years ago when the fed launched qe if you go back and look. there were huge criticisms from europe and from japan that we were -- >> and developing nations. >> we were lowering the value of the dollar just to promote our experts while all of us here know that wasn't the main reason. >> certainly was a huge help. >> the main reason the fed was doing this we all know was domestic. it had to do with trying to improve the position of the consumer and household wealth and so forth. >> but we now have people here who say we can't raise rates because it will make the dollar

that much stronger. i mean this has to be something that is talked about at every central bank table around the world at this point looking at your currency relative to others. i don't know if that was the case ten years ago. >> i don't buy that argument in terms of the u.s. because the export share of the u.s. economy is only 15%. and, so the impact of a stronger dollar on the u.s. is a lot less than the impact of a, for example, a weaker euro on europe. or certain other countries around the world, which has trade as a much bigger factor in their economy. i just don't buy that argument. i don't buy that there is a currency war going on in the world. the vote comeis coming up in a couple weeks and extremely close vote and it is fascinating because we have obama and republicans, not all republicans, but most aligned and the democrats largely opposed and the in the house really an important vote for a lot of reasons. >> you just came out very strongly for trade authority do

you think that's partly we need to do that because china is doing the asian infrastructure bank. it's becoming a dominant player in the region. is there strategic reason not just economic reasons to do it? >> in fact, the strategic overlay is really really important. why did the asian nations involved in want to do it? why do they want to do it? they want to do it because they want a level playing field in asia, not a china-dominated asia and they want the u.s. pivot to asia to actually happen. and this agreement is central to that. so, if we reject it there are really big implications for america's role in asia and the reliability of the united states more broadly and all seeing the degree to which it is playing out in the spring meeting and the degree to which there is uncertainty. >> all right. thank you. nice to have you. up next millennials will

drive the market over the next 45 years investing about $36 trillion. how they will be building port portfolios and managing their money. later, today is april 20th. national pot day. can native american tribes grow their economic base with pot? jane wells takes a look at the green wave in just a bit. it took tennis legend serena williams, fencing champion tim morehouse and the rockettes years to master their craft. but only moments to master paying bills at chase.com. depositing checks at the atm and transferring funds on the mobile app. technology designed for you. so you can easily master the way you bank.

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dow up 130 points and nasdaq up 33 points. also making headlines, it is now official groupon selling a controlling stake in ticket monster for $360 million. groupon announcing a new $300 million share buyback. talking about buybacks this morning. also millennials may be better at managing their money than their parents, but they have one great weakness. our senior personal correspondent sharon epperson is here and she has more on that. sharon, good morning. >> you underscore that senior. you know i'm not in this generation that i'm talking about. not just their parents. millennials that range from 18 to 29 years old are faring better than all other age groups and that is according to a new bank rate study out today and an important factor, job security. 32% of millennials report higher job security than a year ago. only 23% of employed americans overall feel more secure about their jobs.

now, job security is probably giving them the means to save more. 30% report that their savings are in better shape than the past 12 months and that's more than double the percentage of those 50 or over in their parents age group. taking a look at their overall financial situation. 33% report that their overall financial situation has improved in the past year while only 19% of those 50 or older say their finances are in better shape than a year ago. lagging behind in one very important category. their net worth. the age group that fared the best were the 30 to 49 year olds. nearly 30% of them report a higher net worth than a year ago while 18% of millennials could stay the same. so, the study suggests that while millennials are doing pretty well financially, their net worth is being held back because they're not investing in the stock market or the housing market as much as other age groups. this is really keeping them back from having that overall financial security longer term. >> sharon stay right here. let's continue this conversation. right now we'll bring in

patrick, principal and portfolio manager and also the author of "millennial money how young investors can build a fortune." sounds like the millennials are feeling better. but to keep things in perspective, this is probably the group that suffered the most, one of the most hard hit groups because of the great recession. couldn't find jobs coming out of school and didn't have money inflated as the stock market came back up. how should we really measure this? >> you can see with what is happening and just 26% of them have investments in the stock market compared to half of americans overall and 58% of older americans. they have yet to make that next step of making key investments for their retirement for their future and a lot of that is what they lived through. when you asked them what they're not investing, they're very skeptical of stock brokers or just skeptical of markets in general. those are all big reasons. >> doesn't surprise me that people have less in assets than older people. but how does that match up with

what we've seen from other generations when they were at this same point? >> i think that's sort of a millennial young person problem. that is always going to be the case. they have the power of compounding on their side. a long time horizon. i just turned 30 the market since i was born in 1985 is up about 2,000 percent. the problem is you have to live through a lot of downturns which is what makes millennials skeptical because they lived through two of those and still feel that pain and are skeptical overall. that is a huge return over 30 years which is roughly what we're facing between now and retirement. so, it's a great time to get started. >> aren't many millennials living through pain right now, as well when you talk about student loan debt for the class of 2014, over 30 grand and coming up with the money to pay rent that those more immediate issues are what they're focus their money on and not focusing long term in the market. it is really important to invest longer term even though things happening in your life that you need to finance right now. >> this is the hardest thing

about this whole game. hard to get people motivated for something that is three or four decades from now versus student loan debt that hay have pay right now. if you didn't change anything about what you're doing for retirement right now, could you support yourself and your loved ones when you turn 65? often the answer to that question is no. the easy solution is just to start carving off, even a very small percentage of your income. could be 5%, could be 10%. something very little could compound into large values over time. the key is to make it automatic. >> how many people actually say yes to that question? >> a lot of people when you frame it in terms of. one of the most effective studies -- one of the most effective ways to get people to do this is to show a picture of them as they're going to look when they're 65 years old that creates sort of an emotional response that actually increases the chances that they save. hard to visualize four decades. when you see a picture of it, you're more likely to save. a lot of people do. >> also hard for some people to visualize, why do i want to

invest in a company that my grandfather invested in and my father invested in and my friend has this hot idea and i want to invest in that. that's what my friend are interested in. you're not sure you're going to get your return but you're investing in yourself and your own ideas and this generation is great about that type of innovation but that might be taking away some of the assets that they put towards the stock market. >> here's the biggest mistake they're making. they're buying all the expensive, exciting names like go-proe, tesla and -- >> some of the services that are you are buying indexes. you want them to be buying indexes. >> i think that's a great starting option as the no nothing investor. knowing nothing might be an advantage of someone who knows something. >> nobody really knows anything. >> people are buying very expensive stocks that tend to underperform. that's a blunder they made so

far and hopefully they focus more on index funds. >> thank you. coming up next legal marijuana sales are estimated at 2.7 billion last year. that's big business. more states are joining in. they could soon have competition. jane wells is with the early wake and bake. good morning. >> native-americans have dealt for decades with people growing pot illegally on reservation land. now some may do it legally. is that a good thing? we will hear from them when we come back. i'd like to put in my 15-year notice. you're quitting!? technically retiring, sir. with a little help from my state farm agent, i plan to retire in 15 years. wow. you're totally blindsiding me here. whose going to manage your accounts? this is a devastating blow i was not prepared for. take charge of your retirement. talk to a state farm agent today. why do we do it? why do we spend every waking moment, thinking about people? why are we so committed to keeping you connected? why combine performance with a conscience? why innovate for a future without accidents?

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it seems like there's a day for everybody. ashor day? you plant a treat. mother's day? presidents day? happy birthday george washington. why not national weed today? it's the 20th of april, or 4/20 which happens to be a code for marijuana. jane wells is taking a look at tribes looking at taking advantage of it. >> more nations are, too.

sometimes those nations are right inside the states. >> people are saying this is going to be bigger than bingo. i don't know what that means exactly. >> last month in las vegas, tribes from across the country met at an economic summit put on by the national central for independence-and-economic development. the justice department surprised them a few months ago with a memo saying if reservations are located in states where medical or recreational marijuana is legal, native-americans might be allow to do grow and sell it into those states if they follow certain rolls, encouraging them to talk to their local u.s. attorneys. it could be good for tribes lands that are too off the beaten track to attract -- >> but some -- >> they're telling us we could possibly create $3 million for you're tribe alone as economic development.

is this adding drugs? adding thc, to this current issue of alcohol? are we really helping our community or hindering our community. >> they all have their own history, their own leadership and they're going to make their own decisions. >> what's interesting about that guy, he's working with tribes located in washington. he is a member of the navajo nation. moth people don't expect thiv to do it because they're too conservative. some tribes that have lands, they spread from one state where it's legal, and one state where it's not. for example, one tribe in northern california has contracted with growers to grow medical marijuana, the local sheriff is saying not so fast. so there are a lot of issues but they are talking about it. a lot of money to be made. >> i hadn't thought about it this way. these are nations within states. i guess that's the push and the pull is where do their rights come down? and what can the local

authorities around there do about it? >> this is there unique relationship between sovereign nations and the department of justice. conceivably they could grow and sell marijuana within the reservation, not take it outside, but you have to have the protections that people coming onto the reservation don't take it off with them. >> jane one of the things or senator byron dorgan former senator is now working on a native-american youth program around the country. i was stunned by the problems of young people on native-american reservation with alcohol, suicide and drugs. is this a factor that people are thinking about when they're going down this path? >> absolutely. alcohol has long been a problem on the reservation, and marijuana and harder drugs are, too. that is what they're dealing with. if we condone and bring marijuana into our economy, they

to weigh the pros and cons, a lot of these tibl governments are very conservative. indian gaming was a big deal when it started. now it's been several years in and it's made money, now they need to wonder if this is the next best thing jane thank you very much. when we come back we have more with walter isaacson. stick around.

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good morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." kramer is off after having gotten married on saturday but he'll be back in week just? time for the busiest part of earnings weeks. oil is down as the saudis say production will remain high and the ten-year is right around -- ugly finish to last week but set to open solidly in the green this morning. >> a strong quarter for morgan stanley, as t