sawwe we saw crazy moves, no, mike, not your wild nights out. here are what's coming up. the guys are getting ready. >> may the force be with you. >> sure is, with disney. you won't see how high on earnings. plus, how fast can mcdonald's turn it around ♪ a quarter pounder with filet of fish, regular and large the sizes and a salad or chicken salad ♪ >> not that fast. detailing plans monday and how to profit tonight. and could twitter's trouble figure bigger problems for tech? who's going to fall?

the action starts now. live from the nasdaq market site i'm melissa lee. if stocks are higher which sector will lead us? mike, what are you looking at? >> we talk a lot about rates. worried about rates, one place you don't want to be is utilities. want place to be in financials. don't want to be in mlps and reits. the way to look at this. we have stock valuations, trading at our above historical highs. not good for the whole market. you have to be selective, i think. >> cautious over all markets but bullish in certain sectors that will benefit from higher rates. all consequential wisdom. >> happened on a week, saw the tlt, bipartisan clais treasury bond index, 4%. mattive move. the fed wednesday. could have flipped a coin, dovish than hawkish, one way or the other. the market is speaking. utilities, an interesting sector. saw that break out into the end of the year.

got expensive, relative to the s&p, relative to historical value but came in early in the year and hasn't bumped since. i -- budged since. interesting. repositioned looking at sectors and speaks to the fact at the end of the year we on this desk did not like utilities. we thought because of the experts, because it was crowded, but they've moved out of this with a fear that rates are going to go higher, but i don't really know where it comes next on, you know, i know you have an idea on it, but i don't know what the next rotation is. >> carter, curious what did you make of action technical standpoint looking at biotech index rolling over? >> we have no leadership right now. two things that have led, consumer discretion and health care have come in quite a bit. saying that energy's leading is a concept we have a ricochet off the bottom. to be a leader in the steady uptrend and continuing. leaders faltered and a ricochet from the weak part. we have no leadership. it will take something like financials to get this thing going. >> one of the things that -- we

didn't have great economic data this week, and i don't anticipate a rate increase in june. i don't any anybody does at this point. the pending home sales and existing home sales numbers actually looked okay. one of the concerns we have talked about before was, if you got into a slightly rising rate environment, would there be origination, demand for loans? the net engine question doesn't help you unless you have that. that was the only good part that i actually saw in this that could actually potentially help financials. >> and then make one other point. one of the things that stuck out like a sore thumb this week was stories getting hit. twitter linkedin, today yelp and win a host of stocks down 20% in one day after results. what i find really troubling, when you think about twitter and about a linkedin, these are speculative stories and expensive. think back three months ago. these companies gave guidance that sent stocks up 20% in one day and then telling me that three months later they don't have the visibility they're guiding down and seeing that.

we have a shoot first, ask questions later on high valuation stuff and that's not particularly, obviously to state a fact, not bullish action whatsoever and then you back drop that with a lack of leadership, and to me it doesn't feel that great now. >> in terms of this backdrop of a rising rate environment, you mentioned financials. you mentioned financials. you have a great chart on financials. >> go plook at the charts. look at excel app and try to figure oit out. go higher. 2-8 on the 30. s&p as measured by the spy versus one of the sectors, xlf, we know last two, three years a laggard. take a look. since the top of the prior bull market, financials are still down, haven't recouped and of course the market up considerably. so here is the xlf. looks like nothing. what if you do this? what i see. here's no lines. here's lines. we've worked ourselves into a

wedge, and usually you get a resolution down or up. got to pick your direction. what we're thinking here is this is going to be up based on the way certain banks, goldman sachs, jpmorgan, other stocks are acting and think the rates are telling us that. another way to look at it, the final way. call it a big rounding bottom, whatever you want, but we're at a major inflection point. our bet, that xlf is a good place to be. we're long. >> mike? >> look at where the vix closed. cheap on indexes and cheap in this case on the financials. the simplest way to make a bullish bet without risking a lot of money look out to the july 25 callances those will only cost 25 cents. essentially risking 1% of the current value of the underlying to make a bullish bet until july expiration. to me, especially going into a wedge pattern, carter outlined, it will break one way or the other, the only way these could play it. >> here's an index or etf that

doesn't move, look back to once it recovered in october, trading between 23 and 25. here we are 25.25. xp anybody who's owned premium in the xlf in the l.a. six months a difficult trade. i would maybe consider here is make look at the laggards. bank of america. find equally dollar cheap upside calls and play for the breakout. you're going to get much more torque on a breakout isn't a single stock than an etf like this. my take. if you like littering your portfolio with dollar cheap options here and there, this one's cheap and technical support that. >> sometimes buying laggards is good. a group working you find laggard. sometimes it's for a reason. idiosyncratic. i favor a stronger stock. >> choosing the xlf, etf with a lot of the big bulge bracket, trading business, everything

else improves as well because they're not completely levered to -- stocks versus kre? a. great point. look at the reports we have seen from a lot of the banks like jp morguen, like morgan stanley. the numbers came out better than expected. their businesses are looking better than we thought. another thing to mention, that is that just internally, those in finance, one of the things observed, we have banks potentially still have the ability to make money in their trading businesses. we thought that was going away thanks to vulcar, putting things on points still. >> big trust banks. berkshire after the close, look goods. we like it. think it's going to work. moving on. mcdonald's introduces a much-awaited turnaround plan. monday investors hoping steve easterbrook can breathe fresh life in the stagnant fast food chain. the options market pricing in, dan? >> caught my eye earlier in the week. staggering. options market implying a 4%

move in either direction for mcdonald's. interesting, consider the fact, yeah, event on monday. well telegraphed. a new ceo. for anybody to make the assumption the new ceo will lay an egg on this call, they'll basically put out what they need to do make investors feel decemberant they have a plan to turn it around. sales are declining for mcdonald's, 8% year over year. it's massive. they have new blood, an event, opportunity to get investors comfortable and friday another event. that's why the move is considered so high. they'll announce april sales and seams have been declining and not very good, but, again, i think both of these events should be in the stock. i think 4% implied move seems high for a dow component like this. sets up as an opportunity, to me. >> mcdonald's options now are about as expensive as they've been since the big ball spike in 2011. a stock where options are cheap but moved up. that implied move, talking

options premiums safely 50 or 60% higher than they were just three months ago. so options markets obviously expecting more out of this. >> if i were the guy in charge of this, fix the burger. changing the menu, tried a salad, a wrap. fix the burger, you'll be set. make it a better burger. that's their business. >> actually -- >> they're in the burger business. >> losing the p.r. game and massive competition. >> what's your trade? >> here's the thing. wildly held stock. a lot of people -- tell you something, today traders were positioning for big movement. nine of the top most active options strikes today were all calls. calls made up, i don't know. two-thirds of the volume here today. to me i think you have an opportunity to widely held stock here. own it? add yield. look out to may 8th expiration, and you can actually sell a strangle. really what we're doing here is looking to add yield to your long stock position. the may 8th weekly 100 calls, sell them for about $1.10.

down side look at the may 8th weekly 95 puts. sell those for about 90 cents. that's $2. if you have the stock between 95 and 100, you would take in that $2 in premium. think about that, a decent added deal or think about it if the stock were do go lower, buffer to the down side. worst case scenario, a decent case, stock above 100, gets called away. you effectively sold it at $102 up 4.25% the way you should use options against long stock. >> we have not talked about these structures often and rarely set up that well. this is a stock not giving us a linked linkedin-type performance. a situation options premiums rich. the opportunity to collect some of that premium and not that many places to get yield now. you should definitely look at it. this trade makes a lot of sense. >> what's the chart look like? >> okay. we have a pattern of accumulation. several days where there's two and threefold increase in volume, close on the high. goes up on this news. >> interesting, because this is,

comes on -- trade comes on a day hurried activists going into yum. yum is in the midst of a turnaround. >> and the yum thing is they've been -- sales so bad in china. a little more than half sales come from china, a lot of their growth is. just a different story. the mcdonald's turnaround will take months if not quarters to implement. to me, when you think about what options are pricing, this is on a short-term basis, agree with carter, that consolidation in and around 97 looks fantastic. just be surprised if you get a break below 93, or above 102, in the next five trading days, that's really the danger zone and opportunity zone. >> turnaround will take longer than that. probably one of reasons selling premium makes sense. you won't see a huge move. this is a huge ship that needs to turn around. >> got a question, send a tweet @optionsaction. might read it later in the show. economic out optionsaction.com. like you died and went to options heaven.

what's better than that? check it out. here's what's coming up next. i got no plans tomorrow night. >> good. go out and see "the avengers" like everyone else in the world. what it could mean for disney shares. plus twitter tanking. would it make for an incredible trading opportunity now? we'll break it down, when "options action" returns. here at td ameritrade, they work hard. wow, that was random. random? no it's all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this.

this is a live look at the weigh in for the mayweather pacquiao fight happening tomorrow. billed as potentially the fight of the century. there you have it. anybody watching this thing tomorrow? dan? >> sure. $100, pay per view, wave it in, all day long. >> i think you're lying. are you watching it? >> absolutely not. >> okay. move on here. could be a magical weekend for disney according to industry estimates. highly anticipated "avengers" quell set to have the biggest opening of all-time. what it could mean for disney. >> right, melissa. marvel's avengers age of ultron on its way to a record-breaking weekend. thursday night previews brought in $27.6 million to the north american's box office far surpassing opening night from the first film putting it on track to beat that film's $207 million opening weekend, which would give it the biggest opening weekend of all-time.

that all pushes its worldwide total so far to over $315 million. on a record-breaking opening overseas including mexico where the film scored the biggest opening of all-time. ahead of disney's quarterly report next week, revenue expected to grow 5% on flat earnings. disney shares trading around an all-time high up more than 35% over the past year. marvel has been a big win for disney. jbl analyst jeffrey larsen predicts "the avengers" will bring disney half a billion within two years. yet another validation of disney's $4 billion aqua xigscc of marvel's in 2009. and close to an all-time high at this point? >> sure is. start backwards, long-term chart. disney in a range, exactly two years ago took out our dotcom

high. so 15 to 45. here optically you see even in the 1990-2000 move we had no -- look at this. a lot of debate. now it's literally been perfect. either that's the risk here, or it's because disney literally is one of those operating perfectly. our bet. so here's the chart on the last two years meaning this period i've highlighted, here it is. and here are the lines. think we're going to the top of the trend. so another 5%, 6%. the setup now. our last quarter, big beat, being gap up. draw the lines this way. a setup, we think it's going to gap again. a better bet than betting it will miss. >> carter likes it on a technical basis. fundamentally a lot of catalysts not just avengers, "star wars," the merchandise sales surrounding star wars. >> julia mentioned, biggest opening weekend, until december 18th, when "star wars" comes out. listen, here's the thing. saw it i think with apple earlier in the week, too.

the bull case is well known at this point. you have to assume that given the gap and the fact the stock is at all-time highs, stock is incorporating the good news. i'd be less inclined to see a gap like we saw last quarter. a bit unexpected. this quarter now i think the sentiment is that much higher. >> it's interesting, of course. this is really, think about what they're business is, should be talking about cable, and should be talking about things like that. >> right. >> in fact, their media revenues on that side three times what they get from the studio business. $21 billion versus $7 billion in revenues. one thing to observe. 24 times earning, a high going into the next week's results. we haven't seen in quite a while, gets me nervous. they have great things coming down the pike. anybody can monetize the lucas acquisition, they're the wurns to do it. 16% net income margins now. these are staggering numbers for this industry. >> basically with carter, in terms of bullish? >> i am, but wouldn't step out

and buy the stock for the reasons i just highlighted. that's a little too risky and one other point to make going into this number, options markets are expecting a bigger move, about 30% bigger than we've actually seen historically over the past eight quarters. the way to do this is to look at a spread specifically looking at the june 110, 120 call spread. pay $3.40 for 110s tell the 120s for 65 cents. $2.75 could be worth as much as 10ds. looking at a shorter dated spread. notice. often go out further in time. when you use a call spread or put spread usually want something shorter dated. june is as far out as i'd go. >> interesting when dan was walking through why he didn't like disney, he made a reference to apple. right? so did the charts look similar? >> no. i mean, in the sense that there's been no debate, disney has been doing this about three years. think about it. just a year and a half ago apple suffered a 40% decline. a rare moment, seems to me, near perfect.

while perfection cannot last, it does exist from time to time. >> listen, you know, it's not that i don't like disney. if you make a living off buying stocks up 17% in the year, all-time highs, into potentially volatile events, have a ball. better than i am at it, but i like the way mike's going to play it. if that's how you do it, makes sense to define your risk. >> disney, merchandizing stuff they do versus films not really what it is. you don't have a risk of everybody suddenly turning off espn because something else better comes along. they have a up much more stable source of revenue. up next, twitter shares fell hard this week. why now could be the perfect time to buy, after this. here at td ameritrade, they work hard. wow, that was random. random? no it's all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart,

plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. for you and your brother?house ♪ ♪ woooooah you're not just looking for a house. you're looking for a place for your life to happen. zillow ahh... steve, other than making me move stuff, ces. what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place that lets you visualize that information for any options series.

okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim? for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. here at td ameritrade, they work wow, that was random. random? no it's all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this.

time for a little called out. last week dan made a plan. twitter had earnings. take a listen. >> tofor me longing since the hh 30s. may look to do early next week, report tuesday after the close, look to make a defined risk play into the event because of potential movement. here is the trade i'm considering maybe monday or tuesday prior to the results sell out of my stock and buy this call spread. literally going to look to may and look at the 52/60 call

spread. >> well, twitter did see movement, but came to the down side and in a big way. what did you do? >> it hurt. did the stock replacement trade. defined my risk. bought the spread in may and worried about potential for them to hit what i thought were high expectations's that said i do believe in the long-term story. i just really wanted to kind of define my risk. here i am, back buying the stock down here. started at 42. still buying a little here, if the stock goes to 35, where i think it's probably going to settle out soon, i may consider a longer dated risk reversal selling maybe september 30 put to buy a september 40 call. >> dan is not the only one biting the bullet. last week cohen carter thought buffalo wild wings could be the next casual dining stock to break out. have a listen. >> the presumption, bounce here and we're going to make a new high. >> a situation where i think using options to make a bullish bets makes a lot of sense. i'm looking at the june 180, 200

call spread. spend about $6.15 for that. >> shares fell 13% this week. carter, how does the chart look now? >> a good rule of thumb for this problem. first loss, there for a reason, event that would cause a pop up. in fact, exact opposite. the drop and walk away. >> mike? >> yeah. the premiums, it's gone here. embarrassing fact also. i talk about shake shack, ended up on the week, and this one got shellacked. lost twice over. we have to walk away. coming up next, tweets and the final call. stay tuned. i'm here at the td ameritrade trader offices. ahh... steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place that lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings.

impressive... what's up, tim? for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. visit tripadvisor orlandondo tripadvisor not only has millions of real travelers reviews and opinions but checks hundreds of websites so people can get the best hotel prices to plan, compare and book the perfect trip visit tripadvisor.com today

big week ahead for cnbc kicking off monday, "squawk box," exclusive interviews, warren buffett, bill gates. you don't want to miss it. set your alarm. time for a tweet now. matt asks, what are you guys looking at on your laptops?

carter braxton worth, bet it's not "candy crush." >> looking at your three laptops. split in three screen. >> and yours? >> my kids and my dog. >> yeah. >> mike? just kidding, porn. >> e-mail from my wife. i'll be home soon. >> and i'm on twitter. so -- all right. time for the "final call" the last word from the options pits. carter braxton worth. >> it's time to be overweight financials. buy xlf. >> mike khouw. >> look at xlf, the market here, not off the all-time highs. i suggest buying calls. relatively inexpensive. july 25. >> dan? >> re-doing the twitter thing. if it's hits 35, options trade set up nicely. risk/reward interesting at that point to me a scarce social media property, although run poorly and the other one long mcdonald's look to add yield, sell weekly calls tht scalls.

>> looks like a two-for "final call." thanks for watching, check out the website, also daily segment inside of "fast." see you next saturday, 6:00 eastern. >> announcer: the following is a paid advertisement for the revolutionary 21 day fix, brought to you by beachbody. >> thank you! [ laughs ] hello there. i'm tom bergeron, and this show is about transforming how you look and feel, starting right now. >> announcer: are you struggling right now to lose weight? >> i've struggled with my weight my entire life. >> i really want to... lose this. >> i didn't want to walk down the aisle weighing 220 pounds. i need to do something, and it needs to happen right now. >> announcer: now there's a breakthrough new way to lose those pounds and inches, and it happens in just 21 days. >> i a