definitely you're in control, and coming from behind you have to make something happen. it's completely different. i haven't been out in front to take care of business that way, but i'm lacking forward to it. >> we are too. congratulations. you've been a friend of squawk and we were all happy for you. congrats. >> thanks. make sure you join us tomorrow. "squawk on the street" begins right now. ♪ good morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm david faber with jim cramer. we are -- carl is on assignment. let's give you a look at futures as we start this week. can you see we are poised for, i don't know what do you call that jim? maybe a meh. >> yeah it's an meh. after a strong friday. how about crude oil, you ask? yeah there it is also kind of

a mixed bag, and that ten-year note yield, hovering -- a bit below, a 218 right now. we have been up significantly in yields in recent weeks. let's get to our road map this morning on the earnings front. while dish makes more money, but fewer subscribers. >> yeah more money, more problems. has taken that take in the special online retailer. >> sometimes they surprise me. >> who are they?

>> our crack producers. we have a new ceo at comcast. mike cavanaugh, and carlisle which is interesting to note. mr. cavanaugh did not seem to spend a great of time at cavanaugh, he will take over as the ceo of comcast in early summer. at jpmorgan also he chief -- or co-chief operateing officer and copresident. >> not kissing up, but i loved him at jpmorgan. >> very well thought of. he's just considered to be a

very good businessman, so his departure certainly caused quite a stir. and i've not spoken -- carlisle. again you're dealing with the same problem. of course if you recall stepping down as the cfo of comcast comcast, as soon as they found his replacement, there will be an overlap here. and then aung lockis going off to run -- >> i think a lot of people outside our industry regarding this as a coup to get cavanaugh. he was a guy -- was -- he is a guy in the business regarded as being one of the best bankers. could have gone to any form.

people have been speculating what comcast will do. certainly acquisitions are a key part of the strategy for our parent country. you still have to wait until he actually in the chair and working through things but then that strategy most likely goes back into effect. >> very big news will you be able to get him on today? >> i have no idea. of course we're happy to have him as part of the team. trading week this week after the jobs report sxwsh the dow back above 18,000. china is in focus this morning after the country's central bank cut interest rates over the weekend.

the third time it's done so so we turn to china. >> i'm looking at these millions of broker can see being added. we may call it a bubble but there are factors at work that are positive for china. this -- i wish -- 5.1 for the lending rate. we have europe doing better so there are many i'm going to say it i think by six months from now, we'll reverse the rate of decline of growth. but i think that should end, and i think you'll start seeing some positive pmi numbers there. there's a very good piece by baird about caterpillar and joy saying getting in before the turn.

and it's happening as a result of what? >> europe's growth. i was -- he said the numbers are really growing up so internal consumption. your al baba report you don't get growth -- i'm waiting for north -- that's oil. i don't know whether that is -- we need dry bulk to do better. if you look at dsx, you're seeing a chart that's turning around. that's very much china related. we are starting to see some things, including a bottom in copper, that i think will surprise people. i think china -- i don't want to invest in their stocks. i'm saying they can turn. >> understood. i was not with you on friday i was off doing these interviews -- >> which i loved, by the way.

>> thanks. >> a lot of people buzz being that this weekend. literally out to dinner on friday night, boy, that was good. >> it's always fun to talk to someone who is willing to answer your yeses, whatever they may be and not necessarily guarded. >> speak his mind. >> it's always nice. when you really have control, you find that. ceos programmed by the general counsel's office but -- which clearly is not the case with him. >> no, no. we did have a conversation about it on friday were you surprised by the market action that followed? >> i think this was one of those where a lot of people were waiting for the number to occurred in order to put money to work. we are now in the quiet period for the people who chat about and i think if you get that out of the way, because there was no real income growth

and because of the revisions down, i think what you could end up doing is saying you know what? we could have a rally simply because there's no news. no news is good news. >> still looking at september then? >> yeah, i think so. we have a very important one in the oil patch, a very significant deal. >> okay. good. we also want to talk earnings because they are a sign of finishes off here. activist out with its first earnings report. quarterly results beat expectations, helped by stronger drug sales in north america. also numbers from dish network. let's start with activists s the first question they get -- are you going to be making any other large acquisitions? they -- they're still digesting. >> this is a remarkable quarter,

fabulous. aller again, they haven't opened them for that long. >> a few weeks. >> well ahead in terms of synergies. the ebitda is just incredible. already people are saying saunders, a genius. >> we'll see. i say give it more time. let's wait until everybody is on the same. once mime know it's act-a-advice instead of ac-tafs, then we'll talk. their interests on -- by the way, they are currently levered

at about 4.1 times. 3 1/2 times by the end of the first quarter of 2016 and to your point as well about synergies and the like i think they're talking about, what -- on the way to the 1.8 billion i believe it is. >> yes, fantastic. david, where is that company head quartered? >> ireland. >> trying to keep everything straight between switzerland, myelin in the netherlands. perigo in ireland. >> there's a company -- most of the manufacturing is in sellersville, pennsylvania. >> it was pennsylvania but also west virginia and is actually the netherlands, though it pays uk taxes. >> people have to recognize you

can do these kinds of numbers. actavis is just making a fortune. if you're fizing you're saying holy coy, man, what are we doing? me trong i think will be huge. some analysts already writing that that will appease concerns following the allergen -- >> everyone will upgrade, but -- i know david, we talk about these ideas of the roll-up, so to speak. i'm totally conscious of what you want one day the jury might be out on these, but you have to give this maim credit. he did forrest labs in here the key drugs are incredible. i think as good as david pie yet

did with that is company, you'll see the numbers out of that rather dramatically. >> many people think pfizer is comeing moving toward what would be a split, but. >> speaking as -- you know that's a bill ackman -- >> yes, it is. two board members. >> so zoetis is doing what 3g did, they brought in an outside agitator. >> zero-based cost analysis. >> and is pfizer is or -- as zoetis is a remarkable company. obviously when they were run by pfizer, they are gentlemenly, and a lot of this is internal activism. i don't know if we'll get to dupont. >> dupont is wednesday.

with dish we always talk about the wireless spectrum but when you talk about the business it's about subscribers and it was the -- at least what i'm seeing written. more than all of the beat, though is contribute and. fewer customers means less expense. there was some blackouts again. they're always disputing with somebody. >> let me say people are puzzled by monster beverage. i think the changeover got monday terse distraction.

offensely you correctly point out these other issues. a lot of people are like geez there's a bit of kay on the in the deal. >> they keep rolling that ball along. jo know when the wall is coming. it can't be down the road. >> right, right into the shake shack over there when the metz come back. >> thank you. love those metz. >> yes. 20-11. that's the metz' record. the al i baba effect giving a much-needed lift. we'll fill you in plus rates and recovery, san francisco fed president john williams. and steve liesman will have that interview we have more "squawk on the street" after we return.

lily are up in the premarket sharply.

al alibaba bought zulily shares they've been somewhat opportunistic. all of which means they certainly seem to be trying to at least get a better understanding of the u.s. market from their perspective. >> initially at one point i was way too bullish. >> well below the ipo price, and the -- >> i worked behind the scenes on this one, went up a lot, managed to pull back before it really started having disappointing quarters but it would be interesting to see whether they're trying to learned from these guys or trying to teach them. a lot of people love them but they've faltered quarter after quarter now. >> what is the issue there? i mean in reading about it today, goods i guess don't reach

the consumer as quickly, because in part they don't order the goods until they have gotten the order from the customer? >> at one point i thought they could do better than amazon because the company was saying that to me. i looked at it and thought it was possible but then amazon is a well-run machine. these guys will tell you -- i want to be very care of and circumspect when i talk about a company not doing that well. i'm -- >> right. baba of course did better after reportering numbers. stock now at $87 a share after being below the $80 level. >> i think a lot of people are short it. you know remember we also had tesla. a lot of people short that. a lot of people the -- netflix had a really good week. amazon you're starting to see the growth core come back very

strong le activist -- you'll see a lot of bubbling in the groups that are considered super high growth. >> right. up next we have kramer's mad dash, as we count down to the opening bell. above 18,000 on the dow, and not that far from the intra-day high. we have a lot more "squawk on the street" on this monday morning, straight ahead. td ameritrade, they work hard. wow, that was random. random? no it's all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. in the us, three in ten college students drop out. but how can you spot who's at risk? the one who lives far from campus? the one who works the night shift?

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all right. about 7 1/2 minutes before the opening bell. we have a bit of time.

we can do two. >> a big deal on the oil patch. last week david einhorn, he came out and talked about how the mother fracker was pioneer, and he's talking about fracking being -- just not economical i'm going to be kind about that. he said pioneer eog was the father fracker, this is obviously a play on word i'm not familiar with. this morning rosetta gets a bid from noble is regarded as a smart company. this bit -- interestingly enough rosetta's assets are next to the mother fracker, which is pioneer, and right next to the father fracker's assets e.og. i don't know if can you say eyen morn -- the thesis is hurt by --

>> where are they? >> eagleford and permian. i used the frack term loosely, but i think we ought to pull back, because it's a morning show. people are in school. >> people come up and talk to me so we don't want that to do that. >> this is the beginning of what i regard as the real takeovers. >> today it's up 30%. >> noble has a lot of interesting acreage in the nigh obrara. this is the -- i did not regard the world dutch as any good deal at all. this is the combination in the fracking patch, and so i didn't -- i would love to hear what he has to say about it. when i like keurig before the collapse, he made fun of mehmet i'm fine with that. i'm a forgiving guy, and it was

just big here's something, if you want to talk about some of the things interesting, robert peck, you know he works at suntrust he upgrades spencer raskrof. zillow reports tomorrow. he says point-blank, the sun god says, this is not about the quarter. spencer is having some integration issues. >> and they lowered than guidance. >> yes but i think raskoff is a smart guy, the ceo of zillow and i think the piece is very smart. so let's watch what robert peck has to do with zero. a lot of people are betting against spencer. robert peck is the ax. he downgraded twitter literally right before the horrendous

twitter quarter, so now he upgrades right before. spencer, when you call in when you sit down with us at the ooismt 10 we'll talk about this upgrade. just kidding, but it wouldn't shock me. >> no he might be in the crowd right here. you never know. the crowds are starting to get together as we get ready for the opening bell. we have a lot more to talks about, monsanto and sargento and the background on the catamaran transaction is kind of interesting. stay with us. >> catamaran, hobbleie. >> yes. it's more than the cloud. it's security - and flexibility. it's where great ideas and vital data are stored. with centurylink you get advanced technology solutions from a trusted it partner. including cloud and hosting services - all backed by an industry leading broadband network

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the opening bell will be ringing in about 30 seconds, jim, to start this monday morning. a new high in the s&p anytime soon? >> i think so. i think there's a lot of things happening, and i think a lot of -- and i think that at least peace in terms of dollar in terms of bond in terms of oil.

no longer -- there's novell lossity to these moves. watch europe. it's going to continue to be strong. how do i know this? they had good numbers this morning. some sort of strange bell ringing there, but you heard it. that was at the s&p 500. real-time exchange at cnbc more red on the being board than green right now. you're at the big board, sprott celebrating. over tess nasdaq the stuttering association for the young did the honors. >> the gold miners not a group that's been -- >> not quite yet to own. >> too early. >> how about z zynga? >> too early. groupon too early, web van too early.

not too early uber. >> 50 billion. and travis is adamant he's not selling anything. >> should have a private market value exchange talk here sometimes. i mean 50 billion. i sat down with diller on friday and leslie moonbez combined. i was thinking how -- as i paid a forting for -- >> and they take a 30%. what's the margin on that? >> people keep saying insurance can be an issue. all can i tell sudden people want in so badly. david, this unicorn term i'm sick of it. >> so am i. >> let's come up with a better term. >> how about multibillion dollar venture firm. that tells me what it is. >> i think that's value added.

>> sometimes that's just explaining what these things are. >> can't they speak english? >> i wish they could. everything is an acronym. everywhere everywhere. let's get to some of the action this morning. monsanto, i did want to take a look at. there does seem to be some belief at the very least they'll keep trying no one argues jim, when it comes to the fundamental side of why this could make sense, monday santa so getting more and more into provides a great deal of data to its farmers, when to plant, what to apply, when you plant, and if you have crop protection in your stable, which that's the main part of that i business conceivably twhakden hans your -- to offer a broad array to farmers.

that said there certainly has to be a lot -- we don't know what to think. they don't follow one pattern they a ledge are dear -- we've seen it with dupont, i always wonder what lawyers check off on these things just tell you not to worry about it. the regime is so changed since they took heat in the airlines and justice department now they are very -- they frown on this kind of deal. i always wonder what said listen, game on. >> it would be usc's that would be conceivably one of the key issues given they have a usc business though many think they could just get rid of it and eliminate some of antitruth. the other key thing for monsanto if they were to success in this would they take

on the swiss tax rate hence an inversion. it's of a very large size so it could get through the regs as far as i'm aware. >> such an american company. people are say why did i mention neil young? >> yes. when we mentioned monsanto. >> i had dinner with neil young, his next album is calling he's announces a monsanto-themed lp. i don't think it will be pro-monsanto. i think monsanto may not like -- they may not -- they mae delete that from spotify. >> it's not that well liked maybe by the farmsers which is you start to wonder how if this were to even happen -- >> there's a movie called "michael clayton". >> maybe one of the greatest movies ever made, certainly one of the best screenplays. >> go on netflix tonight and watch it. i'm not saying that's monsanto. i'm saying neil young, a great

environmentalist has decided, he said this album is criticizing food industry june monsanto. if you're monsanto you probably don't want to hear your kids downloading on this right? >> no it may not be. we'll be watching that. i hope to have more reporting as this moves along, the key being will monsanto keep the pressure on. >> right because as a swiss corporation they are under more obligations than, for example if you were incorporated in, say, holland? maybe if you have a. >> it could be formed we've had some companies based here. wayfair, a furniture company. dean foods, these are all better than expected quarters you have the rosetta deal. this is a lot to say, you know

what? this market could go higher altera's annual meeting is today. there's a no-vote campaign for -- >> this is the intel. the question is at some point will they resume conversation with intel? but the annual meeting today. it will be interesting to see what kind of pressure they get. at least from the people that show up asking why they walked away from 54 so i did want to put that on the plate, and wednesday is dupont. it appears no signs of a settlement. when you get within days of a nattily contested proxy fight like this one, oftentimes you will see a settlement. >> and nelson -- >> they both kind of know where it will fall and maybe you can get something done. >> no talks at this point. we'll see. >> maybe nelson pellets on scott wapner's show the halftime show, extends some sort of olive

brands. >> maybe. >> and ellen coleman should come on and sp with you. to see if there could be a meeting of the minds. >> i certainly would have hoped she would have joined us over the last few months either on "mad money," been obviously or even here. cal pers came out, they don't have a lot of stock, but obviously a big influence. >> david, you had to project, if this were election day, where would you project, i mean like exit polls? >> i'm taking a guess here. frankly i would still go most likely it's going to be two -- two directors for triian? >> really? wow. >> you know what? i don't know so i don't feel comfortable -- actually i'm not

nate silver. i'm not looking at the numbers. i got nothing. what happened to grantland? >> interesting business model. >> i prefer'll leave the speculation to everybody else. >> i have said if you want to play keurig monster, do it with coca-cola. i think they're in the driver's seat with both of these. he's a very wise man about the future and what's supposed to happen. he had a decent number in the u.s. coca-cola has big positions in monster. and monster is switching distribution, which is why i think the quarter was weak. i think both of those companies in the end, if coca-cola wanted to buy them they could do it. monster is losing share to

redbull. keurig had the disasterous cure is 2.0, and kold beverage is coming out. there's some spelling issues there background on the unh, that's why i mentioned it briefly during "the mad dash." there's been some speculation, well is express scrips interested, or walgreens, which you brought up a number of times. >> a lot of people feel that it could be in play. i liked express's quarter. >> it does appear in the background party 3 is likely to have been express scrips above what unh -- however, party three, and i'll read from the background, the boor considered a risk and we're speculating

here would invite substantially more scrutiny from antitruth authorities than a transaction, and the risks that a transition would likely not be completed as quickly as trans -- or maybe not at all. >> anyone who bought them is good. wall green, i've been saying i know they got rid of the -- >> what may have been party two here. >> i think a lot of people are going to say -- they bought a pbm. i think this new management will be like a pbm, so there's a lot of activity a lot of takeover activity a lot of consolidate aches. that's very interesting. i did not know that. >> sometimes it is fun to read the background. most likely there won't be. >> david, i wanted to point out that salesforce.com is still independent. >> really? >> the yield is independent.

>> even more amazing, no new stories. >> i happened to have western union, going back and forth, with mark -- of the western union -- you know we actually talked about salesforce's business, as opposed to the journalist talking about a bit. tended to be stuck with the material and not the fiction. >> right. >> material, the four walls. >> the four walls of the canvas. we're not constrained by that. mere not rem brandt but much more cezanne. >> and bob pisani is on the floor -- >> only so much you can do. you try to dress up well and keep the markets going here. we're flat today, but all ten sectors started to the down side. i think it's picking up here consumers just went positive and airlines have been -- -- the big

debate was could we brea on you decisively to new highs. a number of people on our air regularly think so. >> we're at 2117 would be the history highs, but back to what the traders were saying. upside breakout is coming. he had a bold call saying we're definitely going to break out. a lot depends on whether we can do that on retailers, because they're going to start reporting. they've had an ugly time this quarter, looking to prices here so gap will report next week. nordstrom i think is reporting on thursday kohl's is on thursday macy's on wednesday, j.c. penney is also middle of

the week retail stocks i think the guidance has been very cautious here. we're waiting for the retail sales to come out. remember, it's been fairly ugly. before that it was three ugly months s so they're spending money on cars student loans, but they haven't been spending money on apparel, so also not a lot of strong guidance for this particular group. elsewhere, the only other excite was over in china. remember last thursday and friday, we are talking about china rollings over. look at this. hang seng is up fractionally. china cut their one-year lending rate, again, this is the first time since november. they had it at 6% in november

they started talking about stimulus. that day a huge rally began in chinese equities that is still continuing this day. they cut it again to 5.35%, and now last -- yesterday it was cut to 5.10% with more talk of stimulus. remember, they lowered the reserve rirlt as well on top of that. they just keep going on additional talk of stimulus and additional input there from the reserve -- from their banks right now dow jones industrial average is down 11 points, about evening on the advance to decline line. guys, back to you. >> thank you, bob. rick santelli joins us. happy monday morning, rick. >> is there such a thing as a happy monday, david? as i look at rates, a couple things pop out. rates are up a bit, but that's not as important. if you look at a two-day, we're

not popping through that kind of 220 level. so let's go to year to date charts. two words pop into mind. topi and overbought or oversold in the case of prices pushing yields up. are they oversold could be a double top, yes, maybe oversold conditions exist, but the greatest big-time correction markets of all time don't really consider overbought and oversold, so thisdow after the employment and the lead up to employment and somewhat of a normalization of market rates in europe that drove it the last several weeks, we need to watch if it takes a break or not. remember, everybody looks at price, but sometimes time is the you this of technicals that's overlooked the most. let's look at year to date. look how that speedy sell-off pushing rates was. you can see the same dynamic in

the european sector the southern european sovereigns. the speed of the correction shun bothers people. theorem looking for a pause. maybe it will incur for a while maybe it won't. for the longs time were somewhat comb atoes. still a somewhat similar pattern sin early february. if you consider the dollar index, maybe we're hovering at the middle of the year-to-date change. here this chart you're not thinking topi you're not thinking speedy you're thinking, my god, look at this range. it goes on forever. 120 is definitely home base the volatility you're seeing in the jgbs most likely will limit thisself. david, back to you. >> okay. thank you very much mr.

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time become the larger smartphone provide in china. just under a 15% market share in that country. idc records -- and then you have samsung bringing up the rear of course, the lower end is no longer growing in china, in fact

it's contracting at this point. it's the higher end, hence apple's ability to gain market share. i continue to believe the apple watch, ubs could be a must-have. i think it is. >> what have you been doing with it? it rang one day. i remember that. that was interesting. >> cupertino calling. >> i plug my stocks in i have my music on it. i've got my heart rate on it. i have some exercise on it. i have the kids program more stuff than i even knew existed. i'm having a huge amount of fun. >> and i do all that with this. >> the problem is if you pull that out when you're talking to someone, i can be talking to you and wow, look at my stocks --

>> you can't read your stocks on that. >> i can so. >> you can -- really? >> like at this. this is my -- what you need is -- it's called eyes. it's fabulous. >> you can scroll right through. >> i take that back. you can -- >> it's doing well. >> it's having a good quarter. >> we'll show you a watch now, the new tv. up next more "squawk on the street", coming back. at chase, we celebrate small businesses every day through programs like mission main street grants. last years' grant recipients are achieving amazing things. carving a name for myself and creating local jobs. creating more programs for these little bookworms. bringing a taste of louisiana to the world. at chase, we're proud to support our grant recipients and small businesses like yours. so you can take the next big step.

time now for kramer stock trading. we were looking at hilton but i know you're going to talk about something else. this is the bear call they go to hold -- and this is basically -- they're calling a bottom in the commodity cycle. obviously this stock is poised to go higher. it was not that bad a quarter. remember i said i felt they're turning. it is turning. i think it's a great place to be. >> you mentioned at the at the top of the show. what's coming up on mad today. wave and a plant-based

foods, and also earthbound -- i don't know we use their stuff. i don't know if you -- they've had good success with almond milk and they did not have an al month sourcen. western union is on a play i want to talk about whether facebook's messenger app, how do they compare again that and daniel dimicco talking about world trade, and is that good for america or not. people may not my view on that is a little radical, similar to dan's real quickly back to hilton $2.7 billion worth of stock being sold by blackstone. i think they've gotten it done all right. pricing allocations at 9:10 this morning, 29.85 to 29.95 was sort of the offer price, but consolidation is what we keep hearing about. >> yes. it's going to go hot, by the

way. gw farmer recruiting for a schizophrenia test the company that's basically marijuana, and you're not a -- only legal place, it's a class i felony in this country we'll see you on mad, and see you back tomorrow morning. coming up author of a book that takes an inside look at the company and steve liesman is talking with john williams, back after this.

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welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm simon hobbs with sarah eisen and david faber. good morning. relatively quiet start to the week. oil slightly higher, $59 puff 61. >> let's get to the road map to the hour the mill lennian consumer, what they are buying and how you can profit of it and saudi arabia's king will not be attending meetings with

the president this week and a new book about the giant, the inside story of the company's journey san francisco fed president john williams will be sitting down for a live exclusive interview with our very own steve liesman. find out what he has to say about when an interest rate hike could happen and more that is in about a half hour from here. tom lee, fourchder of sun struck, and tom, let's kick off with you. that was a strong rally on friday. a game changer for you, for many

people? >> i think it's a good reminder there's a lot more going right in our economy than wrong, a good labor print, along that inflation expectations are improving, that the economy might be see reflation. >> in the way of that on friday a lot of us were concerned, but the brought picture was of a weakening economy. are we on a sure footing here as far as you're concerned? or are we potentially being a little delusional on the strength of the recovery? >> well i think we're a bit short of what the civil had expected. maybe 3% average economic growth for the year. now i think we're coming back and saying wait a minute more loon 2.5. i would agree with the point that it is the consumer that's certainly leading the u.s. economy, simon, but the big drag

is trade, and net exports are probably subtract half a percent of gdp. a lot of that is trade. interesting. let's pick up the retail point. it will be a big couple weeks. where are we on this discussion about gas prices, though gas prices feeding through, given that gas prices have surged 30%. >> it's been a puzzle for investors. in the past -- i think maybe with consumers waiting to see if it's permanent, but i'm optimistic it would be spent. it will show up as stimulation. it's a huge number john why are you sog optimistic will the second quarter in the second half. just because we get a -- in fact one of the -- one of the normal factors of this recovery has been the gap between economic growth and the improvement in the labor market.

>> yeah again, sarah, it's key to distinguish what's happening when you say economic growth domestically in the u.s. versus that gdp. that gross domestic product number picks in the net exports. net exports attracting half a percent from gdp. if you're an investor looking at the retail sector you're actually pretty positive here. if you're looking at trade -- >> why -- >> -- in companies -- first it's a dollar second we saw it even this morning. the people et cetera bank of china cutting interest rates, because their economy is weaker than what they would like it to be, that impacts or trade. so what you have to division i think, sarah, is the u.s. domestic economic which is doing fairly well but the trade numbers subtracting from overall gdp. >> where are you seeing the strength in the u.s. consumer? if you look at some of the retail earnings here some of the consumer staples earnings you're not seeing a very robust

u.s. consumer. >> again sarah, it's very key that the trade numbers -- but especially retail trade numbers are all stated in nominal value. what may seem like a 2% number when you look at the inflation numbers, which are essentially half a percent or less that's a real gain. there's a distinction tore made between real consumer spending as opposed to retail sales, which is a nominal number depressed in part by the lower inflation numbers. >> let's cut to the chase. where are we in the rally? >> i think -- i feel pretty good that the market liked friday's jobs reports. i'm optimistic about the consumer. i think there's some things that having the broader market that investors aren't paying attention to. companies that have raised cap ex are actually outperforming. that happened happened for four year. >> what does that mean for me as an investor?

does that mean i have to change my view of what is the cutting edge? >> a couple things. i think it shows you buying back stocks when earnings yields have fallen doesn't make as much sense as maybe investing capital. i think we're talking about no longer having to worry did deflation, right? that was the big issue earlier this year. you want to buy cap ex growers. >> and what about financials? which have been notable standouts last week? >> again, i think it's a very reflationary signal to see financials outperforming, because their beneficiaries of a steepening curve, if consumers start to spend and lever up and i think housing is definitely telling us it's very bullish. i think there's more things going right than wrong. >> we have to leave it there. tom lee, and john silvia thank you both. comcast naming -- he's going

to join the company. cnbc's parent best known for his years working at jpmorgan both a c.o.o. and person who ran a number of important units at the major financial services institution. the move comes after comcast and its current cfo announced he would take over a new investment fund by comcast for him to pursue various acquisitions and investments, being capitalized at $4 billion, with mr. cavanaugh taking over. comcast itself will perhaps will then be in a position to clearly solidify its own plans. not to say there's anything near term, but one would expect that to continue. >> also got an update on tempur sealy. at the mattress maker, the company announced mark searbury

would step down and will be replaced by an interim ceo, timothy yagi. so i guess, it's a win for them. >> a win for an activist. i've seen the press releases from my inbox. >> that's what they got, a management shake-up. coming up next the inside story of how alibaba went from a company that hardly anyone knew about, the author of the new book, who is a former executive will be joining us live at post 9 with the inside story. "squawk on the street" will return in a minute.

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the street." shares of eithery are tradesing lower, analysts are initiating coverage and it's not very bullish. so far both gave the firm a neutral rating. the reasons was simply a lot of success is priced into the stock.

that firm still has a $14 price target. the stock is up 27% since the debut just in april. >> not bad. thank you very much dom alibaba all began in a small apartment in china more than 15 years ago. a former english teacher along with 17 others built the company from scratch. how a remarkable chinese company is changing the face. >> nice to see you. there was a documentary i watched a while back amazing footage of the earliest days of the company, almost as if -- i don't know if they knew but jack moss seemed to willing to share is all back then. i don't know if that's part of

the culture. >> that first day when he came speech he somebody said we ought to film this. i suppose they had that dream from really the early days very open in the early days about filming the company. >> a few things you might be able to help u.s. investors to understand the various takings, in 8% 9% in zulily. can you give us a sense of expectations in terms of how they're doing -- or is this more just a sampling of the water. >> my guess is they will learn from the experience of our battle with ebay back in the day, where ebay tried to come into the china marks and apply their business model, and it didn't work. the e-commerce model of the u.s. doesn't work in china, and

probably the china model won't work well here in the u.s. one of the things i say is if the political conditions are right, i think acquire ebay might be a bold move and a good fit for them. >> you think that becomes a possibility, of course that company will split apart in a couple months from no right. the big question is gee oy politics. for example, a new ceo, who i assume you know but there's jonathan lu joe psai jack ma and this guy as ceo, who is really running the company? >> i think jack sets the vision and the alibaba's partners they've all been working together so closely for so many years, i think they sort of as a

committee, they run it. my title changed al times in eight years. that's just his way of rotating people around to sort of fine-tune and adjust. >> one of the question that is u.s. investors have about this company is the relationship with the chinese government and how that's evolving current lyly how do you perceive the relationship. >> at times it's a tailwind. piece are surprised to find that but now they're kind of bumping into the government a bit. i think that's healthy. they're pushing the frontier and having that push-and-pull relationship. >> except aren't they very vulnerable in the structure they set up allows them to take the

proceeds through all the trusts that are foreign and to the rest of the world doesn't that potentially undermine the ipo of the new york stock exchange? that's the concern, isn't it? >> the chinese government realize it is it's created jobs -- i talked about this beindependence hind the scenes of the yaw relationships and snell meetings i -- >> what is the biggest difference between the business model for those that don't know of -- >> it's interesting. i'm working with different company from around the world that are studying the model, bass the amazon/ebay model didn't work in china. people can have a storefront so

i call it the operating system and different companies can plug in and sell goods through it. one of the things he did is atracked big foreign brands you know, i think counterfeiting is a -- sort of a game of wham amole to try to stomp it out. until they get serious, it's a problem, as they stamp out counterfits, it will push sales to timo which is their cash cow, so that will become more important as products and services move to timo.

>> do you think they can have real success outside their home market? >> i do. i think their model will work better in places looks india, southeast asia. i've been workeding with a company in nigeria, india, they're all studying the mod. one thing i'm confident about, ebay and amazon can do better at serving entry prior neuroin the u.s., and maybe alibaba will push them to do that more. >> porter thank you for joins us. porter erisman with "al ibaba's world." >> i had the best fair use lawyers in the world. >> you must have. >> david faber goes to the big screen up next new data on where millennial are shopping what they're buying and which stocks stand to benefit the most

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which household names are leading the pack? here to explain, olivia tong not often we get to talk to you, thank you for coming in. >> my pleasure. >> what was the most surprising thing you found about the mill len yam shopping survey. this was women and cosmetics? >> we surveyed 1,000 women to understand what they care about, what drives their purchasing decisions. what we found that was most interesting, the number one thing, they want to be in charge, they want to feel like they're in charge with their liz.

first, they care vessel about value and about product quality. in terms of value, what is important, it's not just price, it's what they get for their price. >> is the big winner here estay lauder? we're just coming off, and estee lauder posted grout that we're not seeing in the industry. >> phenomenal rules from them. what they think is driving that is a up couple things the other things that are important, first, margin expansion, we think over time they can grow that are eps, and the other thing that's been working for them is working capital and balance sheet, improving balance sheet as well.

two of the top five were estee brands. mac has always done a good job in attracting millennials. the beauty industry has been interesting when it comes to deal speculation, avon on the flip side is not doing well and potentially exploring its options. p & gfuls talking about -- -- are we any for a big period of consolidation. >> estee has done some mahler acquisition, procter has that you could about improving their focus. >> who's going to buy their beauty brands? >> there's a lot of speculation there are many names, a lot both in the u.s. and in europe so you've got a couple names. >> coty i know of the celebrity

perfume brands are they going to be a buyer? >> we'll see. that's certainly one of the speculated areas. they do have a large fragrance portfolio, and 15% is in face cosmetics, so there are some speculated brands that procter has are in those areas. >> procter is asking a lot for that. it doesn't sound like it's going particularly well. >> unfortunately on the research side we only know what's in the public space, but there is quite a few rumors out there. >> i gets i'll tell you. first i've heard the auction has been tough, in terms of them getting what they were looking for or hoping to. >> there's a question as to whether they would sell off, all of that beauty brands in one nik packsage. >> well it is a pretty large

group of brands that could potentially be up for discussion. so it may not be able to go just to one buyer. there is a lot of speculation. >> olivia how do i make money? >> one of the names we -- estee's is one of the top tick and what's driving that is the spread of their top ground relative to the rest of the group. >> is that about millennials or older women with more disposable income. >> it's a big area one of them big the millennial. >> who is on top of the male grooming and beauty trend, which is growing. in terms of skin care, you're seeing it on the periphery in a

couple different areas, where the europeaner consumer and also in some cases the more mature consumer those are areas that have been growing. still small, but growing quickly. >> thank you very much. olivia tong -- >> you create an image that's so untrue. nothing is as competitive as -- straight ahead on the program, a live exclusive interview with john williams. he's a voting member of the fed this year. you don't want to miss that interview. we'll be right back on cnbc. why do we do it? why do we spend every waking moment, thinking about people? why are we so committed to keeping you connected? why combine performance with a conscience? why innovate for a future without accidents? why do any of it? why do all of it? because if it matters to you it's everything to us. the xc60 crossover. from volvo. lease the well equiped volvo xc60 today. visit your local volvo showroom for

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i'm morgan brennan. here's your cnbc news update. opec says oil prices will stay below the $100 barrel level for the next decade. the report is $76 a barrel in 2025 in the most optimistic scenario, as american competitors keep pumping out supply former president carter returned from guyana due to health reasons. the carter center issued a statement saying that he departed, because he wasn't feeling well. sweden's supreme court rejected an appeally julian asans who wanted to -- asang has been stuck inside ecuador's london

embassy since june 2012 to avoid being extra dieted to swede are not severe storms ripped through texas last night, officials say about 30% of the city severed some kind of damage. that's your cnbc news update. back over to "squawk on the street." jobs -- is it strong enough to keep the idea of a june rate hike still on the table? let's bring in steve liesman with a man who knows steve, over to you. >> thanks very much. simon. i'm here in new york with john williams. i want to pick up exactly where simon introduced you. 230-plus thousand are rebounding

from the prior month? give us your reaction. >> i don't recall to -- i think what we're seeing is pretty steady job gains. so i see it as a positive sign and a sign we have good momentum going through this year. does that give you any confidence that the q1 weakness recalls weather relied in part? >> i think there's a lot of issues. we've talked about those. we've seen this pattern over years, that the q1 has been a lot weaker than the rest of the year. i do expect growth to bounce ban in the second quarter, and the fact we've seen good employment numbers and other indicators i think is reassures. you know there's this gdp plus that's been developed. the basic tries to get a clean

or less noticy measure. so again it's a sign that gdp number is more an anomaly than a signal of where the economy is going. >> some the introduction simon hobbs asked the question does the jobs report put the federal reserve rate hikes back on the table for the month of june? >> first of all, our decisions -- every meeting is on the table. steve you always ask me for any event -- so i found a solution. i brought you one of my now famous monetary policy t-shirts. >> hold it up. >> this is for you, and so that's the answer to your question. >> you wear that as a undershirt every day? >> i usually -- >> did you provide it -- >> i did provide it to me have my colleagues who ask. >> let's get into that.

that's either a stupid cliche or there's real policy implications. let's talk about in a data-dependent worked 230k on jobs, how does that factor in? >> of course, we have a dual mandate, so in thinks about that, i look at what progress we have made on that and we've made a lot of progress. >> and other measures of labor market strength have also shown a lot of improvement. i also look at the expected progress on that. given the data we have seen and given my forecast i expect unemployment to be down to 5% or even lower by the end of the year. the big question is inflation, so obviously there we're watching data on inflation, other indicators factors that drive inflation again think about what is the data at the times us where we are, and what are they telling you about how

quickly we're achieving those goals? >> john, if you get a 250,000 report next time and the unemployment rate comes down another k, you're just two our three ticks above the long-range -- how do you justify being at zero in that environment? >> in my personal view i mandate is something we've made a lot of progress on. so i'm very confident. the real quick mar is the inflation mandate. we're trying to get 2% inflation. there are a number of factors holding inflation down right now, including the stronger dollar, still not quite at full strength. to my mind it's having that confidence that we're in a position that we'll see inflation move back in the next couple years, so extrapolated from that if the inflation data were to turn the next couple months a rate hike could be on the table -- >> i did say it's on the table at every meeting, but clearly looking at the inflation data

looking at other indicators that affect that and, you know the uncertainties around that are the key i think to my mind the key considerations. >> i went back and looked at how the federal signal was coming. it changed a key sentence in the statement and said that there bakley -- market should be rate hikes. the stories at the said this was the most telegraphed rate hike in history. well the federal reserve signal markets unequivocally in language that there's a rate hike coming before the meeting? >> the decision is about whether the fomc -- the discussions and decisions they had at thought meetings, so i'm not going to speculate. my personal preference is we don't have the most telegraphed policy decisions in history like we did in 2004. i do believe the data dependence is what we should be doing. can we come together every six weeks? and what the right appropriate policy decisions at that meeting

are and adjusting policy going forward? my personal preference to be to get out of the tell graphing, and just trying to explain our strategy, our gouls and what policy aprovens best will achieve those goals. one of the things that will help on that is the economic projections will come out at the june meeting. obviously they come out every quarter. that does provide numbers and further discussion around how they're viewing the economic outlook. >> first of all, what are the benefits of that? why not telegraph it? what was wrong about the 2004 regime that you disliked. >> one issue is you were trying to make decisions well in advance of that discussion to make that decision. so to my mind you watch the data all the way into the evening. wee get more data at future meetings, and then we debate the various pros and cons. i think that's the point at which you make the decision. you don't want to make a

decision in two, three months in advantage, when you really still have time to connect more data wait and see, and i think make the most informed decision you can. >> doesn't that create more volatility around the economic data? we have seen a series of wild swings in markets we think to be in this range, but swing wildly within it right now. is that a price you're willing to accept that prices essentially take in -- internalize this volatility? >> absolutely. systematic monetary policy will respond to economic data k34ik changes in conditions so market participants anticipating what future policy actions will likely will be will be looking at the data and the market should react in a normal way. in a normal economic there's volt tilt. that's just a healthy functioning of trying to filter and understand what the data means for policy. we don't want to be adding noise to that be with you also don't want to make it absolutely

eliminating all uncertainty. i health for the future actions to be uncertainly, because economic conditions can change. i think going back we kind of got locked into this 25 basis points each meeting, and it play be harder to get off that than you would thin. >> john chair yellen talked about equity -- saying they were quite high. >> i think they are high. of course it can be debated, but the message i took away is one of the reasons they're high is long-term yields are very low, we know that both the united states and globally. that's a factor that does push up equity prices. so i see this as being more a reflection of where globally long-term rates are and returns are, and that pushes the stock market up and -- i'm not overly concerned about threats of financial stability, but it's

definitely something we watch carefully. one of the lessons from the crisis is we have to the survey onover financial market developments around the world. >> another lesson from the precrisis is humility in forecasting the future. the fed has not done a good job of predicting the economic. what makes you guys think you can proficient market. >> i think what we want to do is understand what is happening in the markets, and understand how it affects the ability for us to achieve our goals. >> john, if you look a year from now, could you give us an idea is the federal reserve in a place -- is the commit in a better shank than they are right now. >> my own personality view yes we'll have unemployed below 5%. broughters measures leg down to more normally levels.

inflation already heading back to 2% and rates will be moving up. like you said the forecasts don't always come through. >> john thank you very much for joining us. you've gracious le agreed to stand by. we're going to do a web extra that folks can see on cnbc.com in a few minutes. in the meantime, back to sarah. >> steve, i'd like a data dependent t-shirt. side small. >> small, women's small. got it. i'm writing it down. any other orders let me know. i'll get you sandwiching and t-shirts. >> steve liesman, not -- >> great questions, great questions. he's a funny guy coming up on "squawk on the street", saudi arabia's new king pulling out of the meetings with president obama, signaling the country's discontend over u.s. relations with iran. what does this mean for already strained relations with the gulf states? more on that, when we come back.

we have a chart that you need to see. it's a tradingnation.cnbc.com. catch our live segment at 2:00 but more "squawk on the street" coming up next. ops. so if you get a trade idea about, say organic food stocks schwab can help. with a trading specialist just a tap away. what's on your mind lisa? i'd like to talk about a trade idea. let's hear it. [ male announcer ] see how schwab can help light a way forward. so you can make your move wherever you are. and start working on your next big idea. ♪ ♪

welcome back to "squawk on the street." zillow up tracking for the best day since february. suntrust analysts upgraded the site to a buy from a prior neutral, saying that zillow will benefit from the dominant market position. back over to you guys

thanks very much. almost up 7%. saudi arabia's new king will not be attending meetings with president obama at the white house or a gathering at camp david, the move seen of the sign of the country's disapproval of u.s. relations with iran. john harwood is live in d.c. with more. what's the backtory sheer, john? >> this is another indication of how complex the politics are in this region and it will fuel the fact that king salman is not coming to these meetings fueling the argument that critics of the president have been made, that he doesn't do a good job of distinguishing our friends from our enemies, too nice to our enemies, not nice enough to our friends. just as israel is disconcerted of the prospect of a nuclear deal with iran the saudis are concerned, too. they're fighting a proxy war in iran with yemen, and that in fact was the official explanation given for why king salman is not coming because

the meetings coincide with five-day cease-fire in yemen. the wow is downplaying this not saying it's but it's another indication of the difficulty of trying to make headway in this region, and the senate has passed their iran sanctions bill -- excuse me the bill that gives them a say over the nuclear deal that the president has forwarded. now we're waiting to see the house take it up. this will be another complication in that effort john harwood, thank you very much. let's get over to the cme group. rick santelli the 30-year yield almost hitting 3%. >> yes, but keep in mind whether you're watching the 30-year, maybe it's easier to watch the ten-year, around 224, 225 -- any close yields above that level will trigger some activity. now, another area of big activity emerging markets is an

investing sectors. my guest is somewhat of an expert in this area. peter, thank you, first time as a guest. >> thanks for having me rick. >> as i look around the globes emerging markets, there's a lot of investment opportunities there. maybe you can quickly summarize the landscape acknowledging that china doesn't ease for the first time since november and leave out of the punch bowl because the economy is thirsty for it correct? >> we see financial markets, including emerging markets having lived on steroids effectively since march of 2009 when you've had all the developed countries pumping in liquidity to cause credit spreads to compress and equity markets to rise. china has been enjoying the party recently with their own version of quantitative easing measures so i think markets are a bit stretched and we're living

on borrowed time, but the party may be coming to an end. i'm always amazed how countries ignore other countries' mistakes. infrastructure is the topic. that's all we hear public/private partnerships but there's a living example in a country when i go on the road for different venues india is always top of the loy as a great emerging market to invest in but they've had an infrastructure debt bomb and it's already somewhat exploded. your thoughts? >> india, like brazil another large emerging market country, is classified by me anyway as a country that has a lot of potential and always will. so i see a lot of development in india. a lot of it is on borrowed money. as a result, the deficit is about 7% of the gdp, so they

spend more than they take in in tax revenues. also the debt burden as a result of that is very high so the debt burden is rising. the reason why i'm more neutral on india's situation however is because they've got a reform-oriented government in place, headed by modi who as a successful governor of the country's most successful state, he's got a strong economic team around him. so while they do have a lot of debt the fiscal deficit is a challenge, they're moving slowly in the right direction. the question is do they have enough time to move in the right direction? i give them the edge but just slightly. >> well peter, we don't have much time left but i see china and india, many of the ems taking good lessons from the u.s. they're trying to improve the rule of law, trying to get vital markets, price discovery, a form of economic honesty, but in the final seconds, this 50 billion

equivalent of structure debt means a lot of half-finished projects final word. >> final word is a lot of debt exposes them creates risk but i think that the growth of over 7% which i expect will be maintained, will be enough to cover that debt so they really service their debt. lowest interest rate but upgrades are in the offing if they achieve success in this experiment, which i think they will. >> peter, thank you for taking the time there's a two-side to every story, it's all yours, buddy. thank you, rick. up next on the program, this painting by picasso, one of the most important. still in private hands. it's going up for auction tonight here in new york. and it is expected to be a record-breaker. how much will it go for? an inside look after the break.

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the likes of which the world has never seen. this is what we do. ♪ that's the value of performance. northrop grumman. a painting by pablo bicar sew set to smash world records tonight when it goes up for auction here tonight. that is a story for robert frank with all the details for us good morning, robert. >> good morning, tonight will be a big test whether the prices

can keep going higher and we could see the most expensive painting ever sold at auction. expected to auction off a half billion dollars worth of art this evening in a special sale. the spring sale that end this week could approach $2 billion. now the big headliner as you pointed out of a picasso, the women that many say is the greatest still in private hands. it could sell for more than $140 million. if it sells for more than 142.2 million, it'll be the most expensive work of art ever sold at auction. it was last sold in 1997 to an anonymous bidder for 48.4 million, the price tripling more than tripling since then. now they will also be auctioning off a sculpture. it's called pointing man, estimated to sell for 130 million, that would make it the most expensive sculpture ever sold at auction. he created the piece just in one

night in 1947 not bad for one night's work. and it symbolizes man's hope of moving forward. we'll see whether tonight also points to the future of art prices with those huge huge numbers, simon, back to you. >> thank you very much robert. i'll be there, no doubt you will be on tomorrow's show. we'll have the lead auctioneer from christies to talk about the way in which they put these things together. it's harder than you might and it's also more online than you might think. >> are you bidding for the picasso. >> of course, with buttons. lots of dots on that. if you know what i mean circles and dots. maybe not. >> anatomical dots. let's look at what's coming up next on squawk alley, save us, john. >> it'll be a sharing monday. the ceo of airbnb will join us. maybe another billion dollars and to complete the sharing theme, tinder is it a buy or

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alley" is live. ♪ good monday morning, out on assignment today we have a full house here at post live joining us today, c over the daily mail north america, john, good to see you. >> good to be here. >> kevin o'leary, investor on shark tank is here as well joining us for the hour john fort, and our very own david favor, gentlemen, good to have all of you. let's start with uber, according