the stock up. this is the name it's going-over. >> financials absolutely but keep an eye on technology. especially the cloud. microsoft has been on a tear. keep an eye on vmw. it will go higher. >> down 1/4 of 1%. thanks for joining us. power lunch begins right now. # >> will we wind up in positive territory territory. >> ranking the best and the worst airlines. >> violent storms in the west and the south, lots of flooding in texas and tornados in iowa. there injuries. forecasters say this will be another violent weather day so brace yourself.

we have a forecast coming up. >> we start with the tail end of earnings and all those predictions that we would see negative earnings growth. we had the report and since then the s&p 5 hundred index is up about .9%. bob pisani is live with where we saw gains and losses and what expected from retail this week. first up the answer to this question. did we see growth this earnings season? >> we are pretty close to seeing an actual earnings growth picture for all of this season. let's take you to the score cart. through this morning, we have got about 447 of the 500 companies in the s&p 500 that have reported earnings. among those, 67% beat estimates. the caveat there as always is maybe it's on lower expectations. #

they have about one in four will say close to 23% missed estimates. we talk about the idea that we might see growth if things go on track for the remaining 10 or 11% yet to report. we could see about two plus percent earnings growth. that's not robust but we were expecting a decline into the season. something to keep an eye on. # if you look at what's going on happen this week tuesday, tomorrow you got zillow and aleons. ralph lauren and cisco a big tech name. kohl's and nordstrom on thursday. that will be key. remember it gives us good picture about whether or not the

economy is doing all right. tyler, more than 2/3 of our economy comes from consumer spending. >> i like my earnings blended, not stirred. stocks roughly stead tow begin the new week. a little bit lower for the dow by about a quarter of a percent. the nasdaq is flat at 5,008 and change. let's check in with bob pisani on the floor. >> stocks having trouble because interest rates are moving up. the 10-year is a problem for stocks. stocks weakened a little bit. i want to respond to what don was talking about. he is right. we are about six percentage points better on earnings than at the start of the quarter. normally we beat by about three percentage points and a lot better overall. they had a rough time and commodity prices are down. they were expose and they suffered. now commodities are turning around. that's why materials are market

leaders and up 5%. energy stocks and oil is off the bottom. energy say market leader because oil has come up. financials are up because interest rates are starting to come up. things are turned around for the sectors hit most in the first quarter. the material and energy names. let me talk about the retailers. we will have ralph lauren and kohl's and dillards this week. the hope is that maybe they will be better than expected. these numbers were cut dramatically because generally we had pretty poor february and march numbers. remember their quarter ends in april. they have another month. the hope is that business was good enough so that they came out with comments better than expected much the final 1010 of the market that hasn't reported. they had a bad quarter. dillard's and nordstrom and kohl's is up but they had a terrible quarter. they are down 3% to 4%. the hope is that maybe the

commentary will be better than expected. back to you. >> thank you very much bob pi season. the economy and rate hikes. we will have an interview with san francisco fed president don williams and he is a voting member this year so we take extra special care in listening to what he said. where exactly does he stand on the rate debate? >> thanks. the fed president is from san francisco. breaking news in our exclusive interview. he explained details of what the often used phrase dated depend dependence will mean when it came time to hike interest rates. they will get no rate hike warning from the fed unlike in 2004. >> my personal preference is that we don't have the most telegraphed decisions in history like in 2004. i do believe the data dependence is what we should be doing. can we come together discussing what the outlook looks like and

the decision in that meeting and the policy going forward. >> on the economy, he saw the first quarter weakness as an anomaly anomaly. he is confident they are on a path towards full employment and seemed confident the numbers will turn up soon. that would lay the ground work later this year and they wouldn't take it off or on the table. here's what he did to prove the point that the fed is really data-dependent. >> i brought you one of my now famous monetary policy,idate-dependent t-shirts. >> hold it up so people can see that. >> this is for you. that's the answer to your question. williams said he was willing to accept more volatility around the data that could be created by the strategy. they said this is better than the risk created by the fed, telegraphing rate hikes ahead at every meeting. back to tyler.

>> that's right. i want to see you in that t-shirt, your next music gig. >> he left one for me. >> i like that. call your band the data dependence. >> i like that. >> is this the end of $100 oil? opec thinks it is for a very long time. take that as you may. the fallout from that. jackie? prices are falling and brent is taking it harder on the session. the headline from the journal is that opec does not see oil prices consistently trading at $100 a barrel at the next decade and they are considering production limits. citing a draft of the latest report due out tomorrow. the most optimistic scenario, they see oil prices at $76 in 2o

25. it is concern that producers will continue to pump product as they have been and cope with this low price environment. remember opec strategy as reported by the market was to reduce prices and keep production high. it doesn't really seem like this has been an effective strategy because the producers right now in the u.s. production numbers are over 9.3 billion barrels a day. on a mundamential level, it seems to make sure that prices will stay low. it only takes one spark, one geopolitical event to create worry in the market place. then we see the prices rise. i'm not saying that's what's going to happen but that's the caveat when you look at a scenario like this. more on that report when it is released from opec. >> thank you very much jackie. china making an interest rate move cutting rates for the 30 time to help fuel growth. it's raising questions about how bad the slow down is getting

there. the former secretary is speaking with cnbc about his fears. >> china is facing some real structural issues with regard to its economy. they have been much too reliant not only on experts, but investment and infrastructure which led to a very rapid increase. no doubt growth is slowing down. the chinese talked about the new normal and that may be optimistic. >> let's bring in michelle caruso cabrera with more on china's latest move. what are they trying to do? are they getting desperate? >> this move told us what economists and china watchers have told us. the economy is slowing and you don't cut rates three times in six months unless that's the case. the smartest i know said the bank is making smaller moves

than what the bankers would want them to do. don't expect them to stimulate to the go-go days. they will go bad no matter how cheap money gets. when you let things fail it's going to be a hit to china's growth. the bank of china is sim uling the economy to make sure the slow down doesn't get severe. forget too big to fail. companies never went bust. they were rolled over in the extent and pretend. they know that needs to change. if they make it easier and easier, the companies that should fail won't. what's the impact? suppliers of commodities are suffering for sure. is there systemic risk to the economy and hence to the world? very, very dwight the on this question. don't think of these companies.

think of china, the entire country as a balance sheet. they have a ton of money. they have been able to paper over it. >> do you think they let lots of companies fail? >> lots of companies, no. some companies, would be a lot. # you will suffer this. >> they feel this is not the last of the moves you will see. >> it's quite possible. they have different levers they will do. et cetera etc. if things get worse, you can expect more. >> michelle thank you very much. stocks we are watching this hour shares of the dow member caterpillar up about 2.5%. the earth-moving equipment maker upgraded and saying the worst may be over.

baird also up greating joe and global to out perform as well. sewing joy there, up about 6% despite the big move. the stock is down about 4.3% so far this year. >> i a mixed quarter tie. the biggest milk processor revenue missing estimates because of falling milk processes. they have weak demand from china. the ban on imports is affecting demand. shares are up and they are down about 10% so far this year. executive changes to tell you about. temper seely ceo stepping down after shareholders voted to remove him from the board. the chief operating officer will take over temporarily. the stock is up about 12% this year. panera bread hiring two new

execs. one the focus on strategy growth, and innovation. they are both mildly to the downside. let's go for a quick market flash. what are you looking at? >> shares of cal maine. they are hitting a record high as cases of bird flu mount in the midwest. they are talking about it benefiting. they are largely located in the southern u.s. they have not been exposed to the virus. as supply pushes egg prices higher, this company could see higher profit. over the past month, the stocks jumped about 28% since this bird flu outbreak escalated. back over to you. >> flight delays and mishandled bags and what it's like to fly in the u.s. right now. you will be surprised. looking for a new home? one area of the housing market is on fire right now. robert is here with more. >> homes priced at one million

or more. we will show you the most expensive home sold in the in the country. it has its own glass elevator coming up. opinions. there's no shortage in this world. who do you trust? whose analysis is accurate? how do you make sense of it all? a simple unbiased stock score consolidated from the opinions of independent analysts... is that too much to ask? nope. equity summary score powered by starmine, will help you execute your ideas with speed and conviction. and it's only on fidelity.com. open an account and find more of the expertise you need to be a better investor.

>> shares of risko systems moving higher. sutherbees swinging to a first

quarter profit due to a rise in auction steal sales. it's higher by about a half percent. morgan citily removing sales force.com from the best ideas list from the low probability of a buy out deal. it's off about 1.1% right now. it has surged about 20% year to date on that speculation. tyler, over to you. >> to the help of the housing market in america, of two markets. the luxury market is booming. with sales of homes soring. robert frank is here with who and what are driving it. they jumped 13%. 14,000%. they are compiled by red fin. the prices fell 1 half percent

after four four straight quarters of gains. the ke klines of a sign that overpriced homes are coming back down to reality and rising inventory in the patch. up a chopg 48% in houston, texas. new york is not included in the data because of a lack of mls data, but outside of new york the community with the most million plus sales was la jolla and laguna beach and san jose. all west coast. the most expensive home sold in the quarter is called lion gate in bel air, california. 23,000 square feet. 11 bedrooms, 17 bathrooms, a glass elevator and a master bedroom that is 3,000 square feet. the official price was $46 million, but the furniture and everything in the house was included bringing the total to $50 million. >> out in bel air and they still have green grass. >> for that price you get your

grass green every morning. >> i would love to know who owns that. flight delays and lost luggage. what it's like to fly these days. the state of air travel in america. you are going to be surprised. wild weather slamming into the united states. tornados ripping through iowa and flash floods. incredible video is next. it's more than a network and the cloud. it's reliable uptime. and multi-layered security. it's how you stay connected to each other and to your customers. with centurylink you get advanced technology solutions,

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>> look at this dramatic video. an iowa high school took a direct hit. look at the roof go. the roof of southern calhoun high went flying when the tornado hit late yesterday. more than 100 people were inside attending an awards ceremony at the time. they were huddled in the basement. the building suffered that direct hit. the damage extends for several blocks. all-around the school. look at that violent weather. >> several residents and drivers had to be rescued because of flash flooding. you can see the truck overwhelmed when this river overflowed the banks. the driver and passengered to the roof threatened to sweep the truck. they attempted a ground escape but the water was rising too fast. the national guard arrive and a crewman was lowered to the truck's hood and he was able to

attache harness and one at a time they were lifted to safety. look at that picture. more violent weather is expected in the south and midwest. if you are in the area do stay safe. ty? >> that is some kind of courage. flight delays and mishandled bags and a new report on the state of air travel in america. is taking flight in chicago. >> not a good report card. complaints jumped 55% in the month of march according to the department of transportation. we like to look at the on time arrivals and who is the best and who is not doing well. hawaiian and alaska and delta topped the list. the average for the sfrea is about 78%. frontier and jet blue struggled in terms of on time arrivals. the airlines did better in march of this year compared to march of last year. again according to the dot, the

number of complaints about the airlines in march up 55% and tyler and mandy, in the first quarter, complaints to the dot about what we see on the airlines and how we are handled are up 14%. >> everyone we know lost a bag at some stage. # you're the 1one, but a patiently not. # they had a big rally over the last few weeks to near a five-month highs. today it's not getting a lift to the outside. flat numb moving down. to the bonds market rick is

tracking the action at the cme. ricky? >> mandy, the conversation goes that equities and weaknesses derived from the rise in rates. i somewhat agree. rates have risen this much recently. the issue is that they are not coming down. if you look at a 24-hour chart, we have been building selling pressure putting rates up. the minute we trade above the 2 time 20 and a high of interday fame on friday we zoomed up close to the 224. you see the issue. we basically broke 40 basis points. if you want to look at the real comfort, it might be the foreign exchange markets. if you look at dollar.

>> the style is called holacracy. what is it and does it make good sense? smart ways. >> they are getting long on earnings season. which stocks are left to report typically beat expectations and go up on that day? we will have those games next on power lunch. keep it right here.

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>> heerds the news update for this hour. the strain of bird flu has been confirmed in indiana. this is the first time this strain appeared in the state. a different strain had been preding across the midwest and resulted in nearly 30 million birds dying or slated to be killed. they will open in berkeley county south carolina bringing 4,000 jobs to the state. they are confirming the news in a conference and volvo will invest $500 million with the first vehicles expected to roll

off the assembly line in 2018. a joint navy drill in one of the black sea ports. they said the exercises will focus on maritime defense. dramatic video of a stage collapse while a choir was singing in china. the stage suddenly fell and eight people were injured. no one was killed. back over to you. >> whoa! that was something. earnings season was almost over. that doesn't mean there winning trades in the days ahead. dominic has a look at three stocks that almost always beat on earnings. wow! some people use a guide of patterns. there is no predicting it but it may tell a story. # she looked for only the

companies that are yet to report the earnings. here are three of the names. you think of the snowmobiles and that kind of thing. on average. the earnings expectations. and on average, they are up about 2% after they report earnings on the bay of. this is over the past few years. macy'sa one of the big retailers set to report. they beat earnings almost 90% of the time. a slightly lower average. it's up about 3/4 of 1%. another one here. symantec. the cyber security and that type of thing. it beats about 93% of the time and goes up on average about a half percent. these are three of the stocks that have yet to report that if history holds true maybe

earnings expectations and may show a gain on the heels of it. something that traders are paying attention to. >> that's a trader's play if you are looking at 2% returns in one day. thank you. the full story is up on cnbc.com pro. you can read it on powerlunch.cnbc.com right now. >> there is a lot of dots there. stocks unable to extend friday's big rally swinging between gains and losses. concerns about greece and china weighing on the market. it's the best bet now. large or small caps. joining us the global market strategist and robert luna. gentlemen, great to see you. i see that you both like financials. it's little wonder so far in the second quarter as the yields have been rising. they have seen that financials have been tracking higher as well. robert, let me get to you first. he preferred to play on the smaller end, right?

that's the way to play it. the net interest markets for the smaller banks will extent. the movement in the economy, that will benefit the credit quality. valuations are better and if you look at the etf like the kbe, the most heavily weighted towards the regionals, even on a day like today, you will see significant outperformance. that's a better way to play it. >> that's a quick note on the xlf. you pointed out that about 15% is exposed to real estate which wouldn't do quite as well in a rising rate environment, right? >> the xlf is what gets the most headlines. a lot of investors are laying through the xlf. when you are seeing the regional banks explode, you are negative

on the day. like you pointed to you have a 15% exposure to the real estate investment trusts which is an area that is probably going to experience head windsa as the head winds rise. the biggest scale end of things how would you play the financials? >> i like financials across the board. the rise in the interest margins with rates starting to rise with fed lift off will be a positive across the board. i like regional banks and there very clear points about the direct impact. that's across the boards. especially the major banks can do well as mortgage up trends especially once people start fearing the hike. #

with the market crash in the economy any time soon, what you favor is the technology sectors. the financials and discretionary and what you want to stay away from is the yielding sectors. utilities, for example, are well over standard deviation at this point. >> utilities may not do as well in that environment where the yields are moving up and rates are rising. what do you lack on the smaller end of things? >> companies that are experiencing secular trends and healthy eating and white wave foods. they came out with good numbers a few days ago and raised the 2015 guidance. these companies are not cheap by any means, but as growth starts to slow when the interest rates are rising i think the bigger

companies will be looking for ways to expand. these are great plays on their own, but they are great take over candidates for right now. >> by who? >> if you look at a company like coca-cola, they had significant under performance against pepsi. the reason pepsi is doing well is because of their snack business. that can be a great way and really in an area that the millennials are gravitateing to with healthier eating. >> when are you affecting fed lift off and the view of the market? they did it again in december. when the fed lifts rates, we think the interest rate sensitive areas of the market and utilities and consumer staples will suffer in that case and i would favor the cyclical areas especially the larger cap in those sectors.

>> both made cases, one for the large and one for the small. james and robert. you can go to power lunch to see why robert said they have to be careful investing in foreign markets. powerlunch.cnbc.com. >> more than 200 employees at zappos have quit the firm rather than work under a new regime where bosses and managers no longer exist. no bosses and supervisors and job titles. every zappos worker was given a choice. be your own leader or take a buy out. this style of management rule by the way comes from ironically the boss himself. ceo tony shea. matt britton, the marketing arm from publicist. welcome both of to you power lunch. neither of you are particularly fond of this to put it mildly of

this management approach. but matt you tend if i'm reading my notes correctly seem to think it is good for tony and his wealth but not for the growth of employees. is it his greed that caused this? >> he did so and the equity was not exactly sdibted in a way that was towards employees. to switch it over now, after he had that big sell out and the windfall, it can be counter intuitive. we are at a flat level when you sold the company. >> what is your objection to this idea that workers employees can't be their own leaders here? i guess you are basically arguing that people need leaders and you need leadership and lines of reporting to make an organization work optimally.

>> yes. different organizations require different leadership and from a network or situation, very different leadership styles and some are more autocratic and chaos is never the right answer. people will talk about this kind of empowered organization and this whatever they are calling it. the denying what we know about human nature there is an order there whether or not we want to allow it. if you study a policeman on police forces and you look at the fisherman communities. they look lateral or physicians there is a status hierarchy even if we don't acknowledge it. remember the principal in physics? sometimes it's our metrics. they are familiar with the phenomenon. whether or not he wants to acknowledge it he is not in control of it. it creates a lot of confusion or

who is in charge of what. the biggest paradox is not to rush the issue. he initiated it. it's a bit of hypocrisy. how is that participation? >> one of the points you made and think it's interesting. the things that come to my mind i wish tony were there to talk about it. we would love to hear from you. who determines and how who gets a raise? number one. number two, don't employees like the idea of having a hierarchy so they can aspire to something or demonstrate growth to move on to the next job and make money. >> if you leave zappos, they will want to know their title. that title will be one of the assets they take for employees. if everybody has the same title of worker some of employees

might be taking five or ten years steps backwards. all of a sudden they have a title that is far more junior than what they strive to achieve. there employees out there that will want to fwhork that but the fact is that there many employees who did not sign up with this and they are forced to adopt this. that's why you have 200 employees that are leaving. >> to that point, how do you motivate people absent a hierarchy? >> you don't have to have career ladders, but i agree it's important to have ladders with a sense of aspiration. they teach you all kinds of lateral positions. there other ways through bonuses and things and they're determined by the certain group mentality. nobody wants to violate a norm. you have analysis paralysis and

on lookers who are passive. >> when you get to a point where you have managers managing managers, you have too many managers. matt britton of mri. thank you. mandy some. >> the potential for chaos. pioneers for commercial drone use here in america. >> i'm the ceo and cofounder of arrow city. the only legal drone company in new york city. next up on power lunch, how drones are reshaping the film industry.

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paw they are now flying drones legally. it's a wild west in the skies. the growth potential of the commercial drone space is estimated in the billions. >> people consider this like the wild west where lots of people being a tracked to big numbers and and they can't keep up. >> there rules and regulations in place. there was no process. they had to bet one.

they became the first to legally fly a commercial drone on u.s. soil. where? the wide open skies at the alaska frontier where bp runs the largest oil field in north america. >> they encompass 1,000 thousand miles of pipeline and 200 miles of gravel roads. it's an expensive infrastructure that has to be maintained. >> over nine months ago that was done manually. >> it took the team about five days to do a two-mile section of the pipeline manually. with the drones we can fly at 20 miles an hour. actually finish the whole job in about 30 minutes. >> think of drones as smart phones with wings. they carry apps with different functions and collect data. the app used by bp is called a lighter beam. it creates 3d maps of pipelines

and roads. >> maps used to quite the heavy equipment such as road greaters and snow plows and rigs. >> the value of the systems will be greater overtime as people develop interesting and innovative apps for it. >> the app used on the drone is the camera. that's the bread and butter. . >> we fly cameras for really big movies. this technology enables us to go to places difficult and challenging and to run a film production. >> after the environment, this was the second to file for approval. their drones will bring a dream shot to the big screen. >> they will try to do a ballet between a robotic flying between

the screen and the camera. they had to achieve a well-orchestrated shot. >> a filmmaker's tool kit was limited to those on cgi effects and helicopters. >> the technology is so new that a lot of directors have never seen a drone yet and not aware of what's possible or not possible. what this tool helps is to fulfill that imagination. >> the creativity of all the developers thinking about how to use the technology is going to create a whole ecosystem that generates new value. >> what's going to determine if more drones take flight? according to bp it's all up to the faa. it's the regulators who need to figure out how drones can be flown safely and effectively. let's just say they have a lot of ground to cover. >> they are coming. you can feel it.

>> and they are cool. >> they are cool. beautiful things. which companies have earned the right to be called cnbc disruptors. find out when we reveal the 2015 cnbc disruptor 50. crowd funding real estate and making money on millennials and why betting on the bushes can be your best bet in the second hour of power. we will be back in two.

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i meant to say that. switch today and get the no mistake guarantee. comcast business. built for business. >> opec predicting that oil prices will stay below $100 a barrel for the next year. 47% say no it will surpass that eventually in that time. i'm not no camp there. dominic has a market flash. >> levels coming off the best levels. they are shaking off a downgrade. the firm cut from a neutral with bird flu concerns that hold negative implications for eggs and business and despite the concerns, stock is up almost 3%. back over to you. >> one of the main selling

points for self-driving cars is safety. however, there have been several accidents since they began driving the roads. to be clear, the car that our phil le bow was driving is not one of them. how did those accidents happen? that is straight ahead in two minutes's time and you have to see it. ameriprise asked people a simple question: in retirement, will you have enough money to live life on your terms? i sure hope so. with healthcare costs, who knows. umm... everyone has retirement questions. so ameriprise created the exclusive confident retirement approach. now you and your ameripise advisor.... can get the real answers you need. start building your confident retirement

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here are the power points. china becomes the world's biggest importer of oil, overtaking the united states. more than 2/3 beat expectations and overall earnings losses as many expected. the department of transportation said airline are are getting better at not losing your luggage. let's see what is am category up in the second hour of power lunch. >> i can invalidate that twice in the last two months. opec said $100 oil will not happen for the next decade. are they talking out of both sides of their clethive mouth? who might be the next oil companies to be bought.

you will not believe how much uber is worth. you have to decide if things have gotten out of hand. that's in a few minutes. back to mandy and tyler. >> one of the main selling points for self-driving cars have been safety. four oust about 50 self-driving cars in california have been in accidents and two of those happened while cars were in driver mode. the other two in auto mode. dell phi ran the other and there is a butt. here it is. in all of the four crashes, another driver was reportedly at fault. we took a self and phil did you feel safe? >> i felt completely safe.

the humans were at fault here. we will not have mall functions and accidents. they were low speeds under 10 miles per hour. it was the other drivers. it was the other humans on the road who steered their vehicles accidentally into a self driving vehicle. these vehicles as part of the testing in california if there is an accident they have to report it to the state. i felt in the audi and i felt safe in the google car which i have driven around or have been driven around while i sat in it in the silicon valley area. i am not too worried at this point. not at all. we will see once we have these vehicles out there in the real world, day in day out. as of right now, too much is being made about these are not safe and what's going to happen

if there is an accident. >> in two of the four crashes that cars were in driver mode as opposed to auto mote and in all of the four the other driver was at fault? >> correct. >> that's hardly an indictment of driverless cars. >> exactly right. >> where did the crashes take place? i saw you driving in the desert. you were driving in the desert. i get it on the 405. >> they are in california and relatively low speed. they took me out for a ride in the silicon valley area. if you are at a stoplight and the light changes, instead of growing right away it delays maybe like 3/4 of a second or almost a second. it's imperceptible, but long enough so that the vehicle can react in case another car runs the red light which is common. they have the an lytics that show it when people run red lights.

in that one second. i'm not saying we will never have an accident with a self-driven car, but they were caused by humans. they are way slower than with the self-driving vehicles. >> even if it's not perfect, perhaps better than those driven here. >> i want to see the californians do a take on that. that will do it folks. >> it is over to you, brian. take it. >> thank you very much. welcome, everybody 2:00 on wall street and lunchtime in new mexico. you are watching the second hour of power lunch. joining us from the nasdaq and more on stocks in a bit. we begin with oil. strong words from opec. opec reportedly predicting that oil prices will not go back above $100 a barrel for the next decade. that is a very lengthy prediction.

as the cartel is really talking out of both sides of their collective mouth. joining us now, here's my point. when i heard this i thought on one hand they are saying they are the swing producer. # >> you have a very, very poor venezuela and nigeria. they rock. you have countries like saudi arabia. north america will cap the upside. they are not perfect for the decade either. >> it is hard to predict stock prices. with all due respect, and you and the esteemed members, predicting oil prices accurately all the time has been a fool.

>> amy said last week only alla knows. >> opec is saying it's not going to be. they know it won't be over $100. >> i will kid and say the forecasts range between 40 and 120. i say i'm comfortable with that as a range. >> that are is quite a cop out. 40 to 120. i can predict that. i predict it will be between $1 and $600 a barrel. >> that's the fool's error it is. this is a boom-bust industry. right now what you are seeing happen is what the saudis were going to do. they would squeeze out the producers and it's working. >> do you agree with the predictions? >> in terms of we will never see 100 again? >> in the next decade. >> how do you get back to 100? you get a major disruption in the middle eastern country.

it's not off the table. i would push prices higher. >> that are is an excellent point. u.s. and saudi arabia may be the global producers. to me the most interesting story in the last couple of years has been iraq. 3.4 million barrels and back to 40 year ago levels and not exactly the most stable. >> they are supposed to account for 40% over the coming decade. if they don't mead the targets, they will tighten. it will be very a very important factor to watch. >> iraq will be the global -- 40 percent per of global supplies are expected to come from iraq. >> 8.5 by 2035. that is a big new source of projected supply. they are taking over oil refineries and blowing up pipelines. it may not hit the headlines all the time.

that's what we rely on? >> it's an unstable region. iran is the benefactor. they are looking to hook up in the years ahead. we sit there with the potential rise in production. from libya too. another easy place to get oil. the upset is so easy to occur, the saudi king gets the flu and that gets us up. it's totally manageable. >> skipping a new conference. # they are not sending. through the second tier they are trying to signal discontent

with washington. >> over what? >> they see us cutting a deal that leaves their security interest unaddressed. we walk out. they want a signal that they will be assertive there. that provides a floor from the prices. >> taking out the political angle of iran. let's forget about the political angle. they are worried about the oil. iran pumps oil. we don't happen to buy it. how much would it impact prices and supply? >> they are saying we can put a million barrels back on the market. because the sanctions are going to come off in a staggered way. the back half of 16 at best. >> capital is expensive and they don't have it. >> other news in the manager space. they will buy rosetta resources

for $2.1 billion and debt. it is an all stock deal. it will give entry into the eagleford shale. it is the oil and gas two primary regions of texas. shares are trading down. mike kelly is managing director and senior analyst of global hunter securities. you and i had dinner a couple months ago in houston and this is the deal we talked about happening. the price is 28% premium. rosetta is down 57%. are you happy with the price? >> i am. i think it makes sense for noble and for rosetta too. there two things you need to know about the steal. these are high quality assets. it's a win for noble on that front. two, rosetta was going to struggle to grow without serious equity over the next few years. both won here. what i think the market doesn't get is how high quality they are

in particular. that's 1,000 plus that sets them up for the next ten years plus. >> have you been able to do any work on the number of barrels for the proven resource for what? >> on a proven basis it works. it's about $14 per approved barrel. what they paid nobles trade about $16 a barrel. really i think that the main reason you do this deal is for the unproved resource potential. that is not in that proved number i just stated there. it's 1,000 plus locations ultimately. the work we have done in this area shows this might be one of the more compelling assets by the end of the year. this year. the street just doesn't fully recognize it yet. >> how can we interpret this as setting any sort of a benchmark for the assets weather proven or unproven and whether or not the valuation for the other one should be higher or lower based

on the deal? >> there is obvious ones where you are going to look at closology. who is going to overlap with the assets that were bought and the eagleford, a couple of obvious ones come to mind. sm energy is the first. this is actually trades that almost half the multiple, 2016 numbers is what we had rosetta trading at. that's an obvious 1 and should get a look. good assets too. the other two in the permian that are real close to rose's position, clayton williams if you ever get them to sell he is 83 years old and has over 50% of the company. it's really a massive position here. clayton williams really comes out looking good on this deal. when you are out in the perm yon. >> the thing about the names that you named, the market is telling us today that they don't believe that these are targets.

they are trading lower. do you think they are up for sale. they will apply the framework they did for rosetta here. they should be trading higher. >> on that note, to melissa, they may not be up for sale. part of the reason rosetta agreed to sales is because they have so much debt. they have leverage position. how are we going to deal with this? who is levered to the point of being risky? >> that's a great point too. the second part of this. they are not in that position but there is a handful of names in i my coverage list alone. we have got com stock resources and even big chesapeake that is out there. they fall in that camp. there a number of names that a 30% plus type bid that they

really have to assess and maybe hit it. >> mike kelly, excellent insight as always. we appreciate it. thank you. >> thank you. >> let's go for the market flash. >> from oil to organic groceries, hitting the best levels up by 2%. outperformed from a market performer on evaluation called. the firm currently has a $34 price circuit down from the previous target of 36. remember the beating this stock took late last week after that disappointing earnings report. back over to you. >> upgraded to bmo and not gmo. look at the video out of iowa. tornado ripping through a high school northwest of des moines. more than 100 people were stuck in the school when the twister hit. thankfully and amazingly, no injuries were reported. this is one example of the major example they have been creating across a huge part of america.

more apparently on the way. the weather channel is joining us now with more. looking at the threat for thunderstorms and the area here in red with the greatest chance for some of the strongest storms and that does include a chance for a tornado. hail and damaging winds within this area. it is often out of the way of texas right in here. thunderstorms are a possibility here from the southern portion of texas all the way up into the great lakes. this is how it times out throughout the day. here's the time in the early afternoon hours, we are watching the storms through the mississippi valley. tennessee valley and eventually into parts of the northeast. generally parts of more than pennsylvania and upstate new york. up and down the 95 corridor. >> that was the weather channel's chris warren. starbucks making a bet on smaller sizes.

they are selling mini frapuccinos for calorie conscious consumers. they are slightly maller than the tall size. the calories vary on the fleafr.avor. they are trading lower by .4%, but up by more than 20% on the year. >> the sizes may be smaller, but this is not. for the rest of the product, breaking up is hard to do especially for investors. the dating site that wanted to go public and got cold feet. what may be the bushes and not the cities that help you profit the most. later on we will tell you about the jaw dropping valuation on uber. stick with us. power lunch will be right back.

we have a fresh sign of what could be the future of real estate here in america. the crowd funded property project is now open for business. diana is there. >> you are lookingly at the future embodied in one building. they pioneered the idea of yetting just about everyone. they own a piece of their neighborhood. we met ben milner a dicy d.c. neighborhood at the shell of an

old building he claimed would make history. the first ever crowd funded real estate project, a floor plan for the future. >> we raised $250,000 at $100 a share. >> they allow investors and property appreciation and they get to be a part of that. >> why can't everybody be a part of building in the neighborhood. >> this area called h street is still in transition and just one month. it houses a retail store and a bar and a bakery and a coffee company and high end asian fusion restaurant. everything about this project is social from the financing to the floor plan. you have the retail that draws

you in. all kinds of different things to buy and you go back and get a drink at the bar. back further down, you have the restaurant that does not take reservations for dinner. the line is about two hours long on your average evening. upstairs is the coffee bar and the vendors feed off each other. this project is cash flow positive and investors say they are all right receiving dividend checks and if you want to hear more, it's all online at the realty check.cnbc.com. >> we have breaking news with jackie. jackie? >> that's right. just getting this news across at the obama administration that has given shell gulf of mexico conditional approval to start drilling for oil and gas in the arctic ocean this summer. this has been pending for sometime. obviously environmental concerns here. the major argument against this would be that a drilling next the arctic could be even

potentially more dangerous or disastrous than what we saw in the gulf of mexico in 2010 with the bp oil still. that's the concern and this is conditional approval that sets the stage to begin this drilling. it comes at a key time here. record production over 9.3 million barrels a day. they are believed to have vast resources. this will add and be a little bit of a block to prices going up further from here. we are down a little bit today on the reports that opec thinks prices will remain low for quite sometime. it will be interesting to see how this plays out, especially as there has been more m&a in the oil and gas space as well. back to you. >> that are is a big deal and could be a billion plus investment. we will have more throughout the day. thank you very much. to quote the band rush, the suburbs may have no charges to soothe the restless dreams of youth.

millennials are ditching cities and doing snag they swore they would never do. move to the bushs. his portfolio is invested in companies that they think will invest. the strategist with fed rate and ahead of the global allocation. intros out of the way, bill. you hear these millennials that we will never move to the burbs and then they do. what are they buying and how are you profiting from it? >> we took a look at the spending patterns that occur as people get about ten years older from the single and childless era of their life to married. it's stark. the car purchases and the home purchases and then ultimately the baby-sitting expenditures go through the roof. isn't it interesting that we

have a rampage for restaurant stocks right now at the worst time to have a rampage for fast food stock. the millennial males are single and they are 50e9ing there now. in years, they won't be frequenting those now. you betting on the more sit down-type restaurants or baby goods or what type of stocks are you buy something. >> what you want is first of all, you want to own the advertising vehicles. that's the simplest thing is we can't figure out what will take the most advantage of this. when they get to sell vehicles that include car seats and human, they go up quite a bit and the advertising goes up quite a bit we like ganet. they own cars.com which is a popular site for buying cars. they are the local auto

dealership oram a. they own 84 daily newspapers and local news from television and local news from newspapers don't come into play until folks are married and have kids. >> it has been terrible for the millennials. it's difficult for many of them, but if you look out 10 to 15 years, we will have very favorable demographics in the country. >> no question. you have enormous demand. as a result of the great recession, folks came out of college and they were unemployed or under employed. the average student had $33,000 worth of student debt. they moved back in with their parents and sleeping on their mother's couch and delayed life. as the economy and labor market have gotten better that is starting to change. the last couple of quarters we have seen household formations go vertical. the employment cost index a couple of days ago said wages

are growing at a 2.8% rate in the and folks are starting to move out of their mother's basement and starting to get married and buy houses and condos and co-ops and think about having kids. that represents a new buying pattern that we have to recognize and appreciate. >> i am trying to understand how one should think about a demographic as an investable thesis. if you look at the information, you have to believe that these people are going to provide incremental demand and beyond what the housing market needs to recover. there were households that were lost because they moved to renting. how do you get out what is going on with millennials versus people who are homeowners. that's because of the great recession. >> i asked phil specifically. >> when you look at the relationship between the housing

market index which is a good indicator compared to the lagging indicator, you have a situation where single family starts have increased by 50% over the last couple of years. that's not bad. in order to catch up to where the housing market index is now, we need to be running starts at about a 1.2 million rate. that is literally twice where we are now. they are getting in the game for the first time. they drive the housing market forward. >> melissa, in 1960 there were 180 million people in the united states. the deepest and worst recessions caused us to drop down to a million housing starts which is a single family and multifamily.

that's with 325 million people. phil is right. this could be a tsunami of demand. >> fascinating topic. bill and phil thanks to you. >> melissa, we are watching shares of hilton worldwide. announcing a 90 million share offering of stock. they are coming from stockholder affiliated with black stone. hilton would not receive the offerings and they have an additional million shares they can sell on top of that. this will happen if it does happen fully. take black stone stakes to under 50%. >> watch at hlt. still to come a sign of the times that shows that we might have reached peak online dating. new stats on why china may be losing their sweet tooth. not the bull-bear debate but

bohr-bear. a couple of must see video. #

it appears that raisia will

lose their sweet tooth. demand for cocoa is cooling off. the industry trade group said it fell more than 9 per percent in the first quarter with china accounts for much of that drop. cocoa prices are down more than 20% from the all time highs. from chocolate to dating they often go hand in hand. this can be a cold hearted sign of the times on the dating site. >> more than 41 million people in the u.s. visited an online dating service in march alone. that doesn't mean the sites are necessarily great investments. one site that is making headlines is zoosk that just withdrew the plans for an ipo siting unfavorable market conditions. they control an estimated 5% of this $2.4 billion market.

the number of people using online dating services is up 13% year over year according to com score. dating sites face real challenges including fierce competition and users don't want to pay for the services given all of the free options out there. that's why the dating industry is only growing revenues at about 5% per year. for investor who is want a piece of the market the biggest public player would be iac that runs match.com and okay cupid. a more pure play would be spark networks that runs j date and christian mingle although that is down 30% in the last 12 months. no lack of new start ups. happen that boasts 750,000 daily active users uses location-based technology to help you connect with other happen members.

analysts think this attracts users and attention, but there is no guarantee investing in the sites will be a success. back to you. >> prices lower today. you have a number of downside factors that are not moving that much lower. they are supported at $59 a barrel. you have a stronger dollar and citing the draft and remaining low for an extended period of time. this conditional approval for shell to drill in the arctic and that could add more production out of the u.s. at record levels. you expect prices to be down in the same token. # digested by the news and also

keeping an eye on geopolitics. the prices should bed heading lower. the $59 mark is a key support level. back to you. >> jackie thank you very much. more power lunch after this short break. blap just because i'm away from my desk doesn't mean i'm not working. comcast business understands that.

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with centurylink you get advanced technology solutions. including cloud and hosting services - all from a trusted it partner. centurylink. your link to what's next. doug. you've been staring at that for awhile, huh? listen, td ameritrade has former floor traders to help walk you through that complex trade. so you'll be confident enough to do what you want. i'll pull up their number. blammo. let's get those guys on the horn. oooo looks like it is time to upgrade your phone, douglass. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this.

i'm morgan brennan and here's your update at this hour. defense lawyers for boston bomber have arrested their case in the penalty phase of his trial. a staunch opponent of the death penalty was the last witness they called. she felt he was sincere when she said no one deserved to suffer like that. bernard ma dor's right hand man has died. he passed away from lung cancer. he testified for the in the multibillion fraud case. he was scheduled to be sentenced june 5th. the nato secretary general said russia built up the forces so that pro russia separatists are able to launch with little warning. they made the comment at a news

conference in brussels. a university is teaming up to find research for aids. the british breaker will invest $20 million over the next years for the project. that's the cnbc news update for this hour. back to you. >> thank you very much. it is time for street talk and looking for opportunities just for you for key analyst calls. let's go. first up if a two for. in advance of shipments, that's about 16%. about 40% upside. >> what may be the start of the turn look at since mid-april or

so. 28% over the past month. up about 15%. already, shark moves to the upside. that goes hand in hand. here's zillow. this is a bold call considering earnings are out tomorrow. raising the price by $20 to 130. the analyst is rising with mobile usage and dependence on third party listening. the analyst made an amazing call two weeks ago when he downgraded ahead of earnings. we should note we are talking about it. >> the average price targeted is 108. he is way up there. royal caribbean and web bush upgradeing for a neutral. about 20% upside seeing that. the pull back has overdone. they are down about 10% and rcl has a lot of earnings momentum. >> they reported earnings and

had a good quarter, but they took down the full year guidance because of fx. they did pull back but since earnings it climbed back and recouped about half of the losses. stock number four here we were talking about fracking and this is related to it. the stock getting hit with a downgrade. credit suisse had a slash from 35 to 60. the analyst has a hard time seeing the market picking up meaningfully. the completions in the low oil price environment. you mentioned this and stock is down 14%. >> it's like a second or 30 that they get from the great state of wisconsin. in some ways a rail play too. our last stock an under the radar name.

o siris therapeutics. sales doubled from the first quarter of last year. piper jaffray said because of two things. broader reimbursement rates and a bigger sales force, they have that with a $28 target. >> you know what surgical products they have? chronic wound care made from the pla cental membranes. fascinating stuff. >> they help you heal. thank you very much. it is time for trading nation. today it really is a nation. we will look at greece. aaron gibbs, equity chief investment officer todd gordon with trading analysis.com. greece all over the place are you trading and how does it

look? and they are looking for clarity. i feel like support is in and volatility will come out of the market. it would depress the volatility in the market. it holds and we can move up. they want to sell those below or it can be long. i think clarity is what you are looking for. will it leave and what do you think about it? is it worth the money and does that. i want to first state that we actually don't invest our strategies in greek stocks.

they are off the table for us. and that's the types of stocks. don't think of it as the eurozone. the impact for the u.s. is minimal. if you need to pay the imf if you need to pay it this could have an impact and just to give you an idea of how small they are, or 1/3 the gdp of los angeles. very minimal impact and it's all

about the euro. >> it looks good technically despite all of that. thank you both. we will see aaron and todd later and we have our website. we do two extras on the website every day. the kids call it digital. uber's latest round of money making. that puts the stock in the stratus fear. volvo making a huge investment with one american state. what is getting their $500 million? the videos you need to see. we have a boar and bears on the road. #

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rising about 5% in the past week alone. take a look at the etf that tracks longer dated treasuries a move down 2% on the session. >> thank you. meantime it is a big win for the palmetto state. volvo announcing a $500 million plant in south carolina makes it a factory for the chinese-owned company. the supervisor is here. you can in a little bit. but this is a big win. how did you land this? >> it was a team effort between the governor of south caroline a. the secretary of commerce and my team at berkeley county as well as the electric cooperatives along with the

largest publicly owned in south carolina. >> what was the sell then. i'm sure volvo was trying to use against everybody. it's a beautiful area but besides that. you have easy access and they are handly available for them too. we have got a workforce that is already being trained for the production area and we have the second lowest millage rate in south carolina. >> when are do you expect that to be done? when does the hiring begin? right now? >> i don't think they will be hiring, but they may be. it needs to be training for the

individuals and the training facility is not yet built. the temporary one is not available for them right now. i guess it will be within the next six to eight months. >> charleston is known for food and seer sucker suits and now volvo. appreciate it. >> thank you very much. take care. >> a rough year for shares of avis budget group. what is the trouble with rental car companies? is uber to blame? speak of uber the bag huge massive evaluation that might be put on the company. you have to see it to believe it. ameriprise asked people a simple question: can you keep your lifestyle in retirement?

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introducing the first-ever lexus nx turbo and hybrid. once you go beyond utility there's no going back. sharing service uber really work $50 billion? uber is trying to raise the funding. the size of the stakes that

would buy would bury the company at $50 million. let's put that in perspective, shall we? that would put uber bigger than fedex. and the retailer target. and get this it would make uber worth $7 billion less than the maker of many of the cars its drivers use, general motors melissa. that's an uber evaluation. >> compare to rental car hertz. and what's wrong with the rental car companies, because if you take a look at avis' chart it looking at sames hertz, equally dismal. >> equally dismal because it's been tough for these guys to get profit for vehicle growing. in fact as we head into the travel season take a look at the stocks publicly traded.

you've got the major airlines up an average of 66%. the cruise industry up 42%. online travel sites, up 40%. and the hotel industry up 28%. now compare that with shares of avis under the ticker symbol car, car. just 4% in the last year. just under 4% in the last year. what's holding down the rental car companies right now? what we call it the rental car blues. first of all they have outdated reservation and i.t. systems. they're starting to upgrade those but it's going to take some time for where they need to be. too many cars that are not rented. in fact they're sitting empty eight to nine days a month. that's basically wasted capital. there's a lack of power there because they have cars that are waiting to be rented. and they're struggling with that excess ancillary revenue and allowing people to bypass the

check-in counter. >> they're struggling with how do i on the one hand use a smartphone to get the customer right to the car, yet still sell insurance, actually like baggage fees things that are very profitable for the car rental companies. >> and oh by the way, we asked question what about uber? how much of a threat is it to the rental car companies. melissa and brian, think about daily rentals, it's only about 4% or 5% of the business when you talk about people driving for fewer than 100 miles. maybe they rack up 200 miles. you're not going to put 200 miles on an uber account. you will if you fly into manhattan, maybe going to a couple meetings downtown and head back to the airport. by comparison if you've got several trips over a day and a half, you're not going with uber you're going with a rental company. that said they've got a lot of issues they need to fix. as they try to convince people

this is a business that can be profitable for investors. >> thank you. it seems like the only market in the world that is oversupplied and overpriced. i don't know how that happens, right? ten car companies in o'hare alone. >> all right. >> hey brian, real quick -- >> yeah. >> -- i guarantee you if you don't book in advance and you wait until the last minute, they've got cars. >> yeah but then i'm shuttling my 7-month-old and other kid, they got cars. >> at o'hare? >> you can do that. >> 76 bucks a day at o'hare like a tiny little car that -- the car should rent me. thank you very much. all right. >> okay. coming up -- the most expensive painting ever -- maybe. stay with us.

e financial noise financial noise financial noise financial noise

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see the whole picture... ♪ ♪ process critical information and put it in the hands of our defenders. reaching constantly evolving threats before they reach us. that's the value of performance. northrop grumman. here we go oak, my gosh. >> check this out, a dad with good reflexes catches a ball with a baby strapped to his chest. on mother's day. i'm sure the mother of the child probably would have preferred that he just get out of the way, he used the hand to protect the baby. you can't argue with the results. now, that kid's got a souvenir. forget bulls and bears. you're looking at boars and bears. you're looking at a wild boar that got caught.

sauntered into the mall. the boar was eventually tranquilized and taken to the center. now to the bears and frightening moments at yellowstone national park. dozens of tourists got off to the side of the road to take a look at backlack bears. it's liked old adage, i don't need to run faster than the bear. i just need to run faster than you. how hot is the art market? 40 million bucks hot. the picasso considered the most expensive ever painting created by the artist. to set a record of all time. robert frank will it do it? >> it probably will. pablo picasso was probably the highest second at auction last year with over $250 million.

christie christie's is expects to auction off a painting of women of al jeerengineer -- algiers. it will become the most expensive painting ever sold at auction. the piece was sold to anonymous bidder to $48.4 million. the price has tripled. they will also auction off the sculpture of "painting man." he created the piece to symbolize man's hope of moving forward. it could make it the most expensive sculpture ever sold. not bad for one night's work. let us know how it goes. >> i will. >> what do you got? the bold zillow upgrade ahead of earnings. >> listen in on the radio, too. thank you for watching "power

lunch. "closing bell" with kelly evans begins right now. hi welcome to "closing bell," everybody. i'm kelly evans down here at the new york stock exchange. >> welcome back. >> it's good to be back. you're not allowed go on vacation anymore. i'm bill griffeth also here at the new york stock exchange. a down day, we've pulled back a bit. but just a bit from the big rally we saw on friday. that tepid jobs report. one thing of note in the bond market the treasury yield curve