Skip to main content

tv   Mad Money  CNBC  May 20, 2015 6:00pm-7:01pm EDT

3:00 pm
out topography 86.5. l brands tomorrow will make the turn back higher. >> l brands. giving you a funny feeling. >> i'm melissa lee. thank you for watching. see you back here tomorrow. don't my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> hey i'm cramer. welcome to mad money. welcome to cramerica. my job is not just to entertain but to coach and teach you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. i love it when i can pit the airlines against each other and get lower fairs but as an
3:01 pm
investor competition is the bain of profits and the scourge of stocks. as we found today when the transports were clubbed for nearly 2% loss. but the nasdaq gaining 0.3% yet the key dow jones transportation average got smashed today courtesy of too much competition. competition in the airlines. see the transports they can cast a long shadow if not a paw over the entire stock market as they did for most of the day until the fed minutes were released to 2:00 p.m.. they showed there were no plans for an imminent rate hike. the transportation stocks the truckers, the rails, the freight followers and airlines were often seen as commerce to come because if it isn't sold it's shipped. sometimes this kind of action is a sign not of a weakening trade
3:02 pm
picture overall but a potential potentially ruinous cut throat competition. that's what is driving the group down at this very moment. what i didn't count on was that mad money is driving the dialogue causing the group's weakness. specifically last night, doug parker, the always candid and i mean incredibly candid ceo of american airlines came on the show and said some of his competitors decided to ramp up capacity and take advantage of the strong travel market. he admitted they're being too aggressive in adding routes and planes and that can lead for dogfights for customers in particular delta has gotten very bullish. maybe way too bullish. cnbc airline reporter pointed out today and that means trouble ahead for the whole industries profitability. just listen to what parker told us last night on the show.
3:03 pm
>> some capacity is being added not but us but by some competitors. next year you'll see growth of 5 or 6% domestic. that will have a negative impact. there's no doubt about that. >> gulp. respond to lower fares by lowering fares themselves. that's a key metric. oh, doctor. that means estimates are probably too high and needs to be slashed. it means the stock is not as cheap as it looks. but something much higher. why, the estimates have to come down and only that mean lower stock price which is is exactly what we got today when they trashed this group beyond all reason. oh now that's it. why do i say beyond all reason? american airlines is in the best shape it's ever been. it has a ton of cash. pay down debt and why not? offer a big dividend. parker is taking his pay in
3:04 pm
stock. wouldn't he just take the cash like everybody else and he points out we're in a competitive business and we're good at it. they sure are. that will be fabulous when we travel but this is a show about stock and most of you own stocks and i think you want your stocks to go higher and not lower. so therefore we hate competition. the reason i was so bullish about the airlines was because all the consolidation, u.s. air emerging with american and united continental brought an end to competition in the past and creating a golden age of airline investing. american air is the best form of stock on the nasdaq. these are not like they ever had gains. i'm note saying you can't buy the airlines when they reach a certain leveling. flying maybe safer than ever because earnings estimates aren't. you know investors will run for cover no matter what.
3:05 pm
the opposite is true too. have been talking about the need to find industry where is capacity is taken out or where there's no competition at all. that's where the big money is made. so where is that safe growth. where should we be looking for it? who has it? how about the bio techs. one of the reasons we like them in the show and talk about them endlessly is they tend to meet unmet needs with medicines protected by competitions by patents. which one? i like regeneron which yesterday reached the level. less than $5 a share when we first started the show. first year of the show. more than ten years ago. today the stock roared again. up more than $8. finish at $512.77. it's soon offering a novel anticholesterol formulation with blockbuster potential. ask your doctor if you have high blood pressure. they know of this drug. they have more room to run or
3:06 pm
there's united therapeutics. we heard from them last night. there's no competition for the company's pulmonary hypertension products and 30,000 people in their population. $100,000 a person. for some of her drugs, it's a lack of competition although remember there are massive development costs for these drugs. up $4.74. on a so-so day remember. it's related to the story of singular drugs lacking competition competition. the airlines aren't the only area with vicious competition. yesterday we were at home depot and today lowe's gave a story that was not up to snuff. same store sales, plus 5, don't write it off but the company
3:07 pm
disappointed in a host of aisle including power tools and plumbing where home depot did well. lowe's got hammered and kept home depot down for a second day even though again i think people will retate fast. all the way back all time high yesterday but that done mean all of retail is a battle of unvanquished competitors at least today. this morning target reported i have to tell you, i think this company lead by brian cornell is pulling away from the competition, especially walmart because targets were turning to its roots where you expect more and pay less. that's why on my charitable trust has made it a huge position. we keep hearing that a pal's week everywhere. target pulled out stronger sales on its call. maybe the other guy doesn't have the right apparel. we keep learning about how expensive and fruitless the
3:08 pm
online business will be. they had a positive impact on same store sales. i liked everything i heard. white wave and hain. netflix has new contest that can make their interest in china ever more powerful. i like action flicks. i'd fit in perfectly. harmon has started bouncing back because despite what you hear about the competition it totally dominated the industry and of course it's why i remain faithful to apple itself and urge that you hold on to this very inexpensive stock. i hammer that point home every chance i get, everywhere i go. i even made sure that the fanatic got the message when i had to sit him down last saturday before i threw out that perfect strike of a pitch. nicking the lefthand corner of the plate before the hometown
3:09 pm
team vanquished the diamondbacks. if you engage in a dogfight for customers the customers might win but shareholders might lose. laid to waste competitors and those were the companies with stocks we want to own and put away at least until competition rears it's head as it just has in the so oh tranquil turbulent airline stocks. tom. >> caller: booyah. i have questions about skechers. it's about 13% short. the pe is getting a bit stretched in the mid to upper 30s. the last five years there's only been insider selling and it seems that as soon as they exercise options they saw on the
3:10 pm
same day then i was wondering if -- what's going on with the prices? is this part of a short squeeze or is this just because of their guidance. >> well, first of all thank you for that tom. you have very interesting points that you do make. let's deal with some of these head on. first of all they created a tremendous amount of wealth. if they're going to sell stock they're going to sell options. who can blame they're. this company is a juggernaut and finally getting it's due. that's what you're discovering and third the people short of the overrun because they mistook what they thought was a fad business. this is a showbiz shoe business company run by the two best guys in the industry. i'm sure nike would tell you that and under armour will tell you that. is its overvalued? you got big gains nobody ever got hurt taking a profit. has the stock moved up too much perhaps but it's a great company. ron in oklahoma.
3:11 pm
ron. >> caller: yes, first time caller. i have a high beta stock, intercepted. basically a start up pharmaceutical with mostly a single product line. yesterday they had a conference call and the stock promptly dropped about 50 points. is this a buying opportunity. >> i have to tell you why the stock dropped is we're looking for good results. you know how this game works, ron. if you you're looking for good results you need spectacular results. we don't get that which is why the stock is down. i like to stay away. go with regeneron, united therapeutics, go with radius. those are my favorites. when it comes to competition, consumers benefit but shareholders might not. do yourself a favor and find a company protected for those customers. it's the company behind the hottest games in the market
3:12 pm
including grand theft auto. have the ceo. plus don't pump the brakes. i have the name getting a turbo boost from the strong dollar. plus it's the company everyone is talking about and i have the earnings exclusive and more than that. don't miss my interview with the salesforce ceo. stick with cramer. don't miss a second of "mad money." follow @jimcramer on twitter. have a question tweet cramer, #madtweets. send jim an e-mail to madmoney@cnbc.com or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc. miss something? head to madmoney.cnbc.com.
3:13 pm
3:14 pm
bulldog: get a queen serta set for just $397. save up to $300 on tempur-pedic breeze. and get up to four years interest-free financing
3:15 pm
on the entire tempur-cloud collection! the memorial day sale ends monday. ♪ mattress discounters ♪ >> how is it that everyone always seems to underestimate take 2 active software. they never seem to get enough credit from wall street. investors still see this as nothing more than the creator of grand theft auto. the most successful ever take 2
3:16 pm
is an incredibly well run company with strong franchises. bio shock, civilization evolve and great sports titles like mlb 2-k. keep helping the bottom line when there's no iteration of grand theft. i was not surprised yesterday when take two reported an incredibly strong quarter beating the estimates and increases buy back authorization. 12% of the company's share count. no wonder the stock rocketed more than 18%. pulled back about a buck today and i still think this thing is bargain. the chairman and ceo of take 2 interactive software. hear more about where the company is headed. have a seat. you say every year since 2007
3:17 pm
and today we have ten titles that have each sold 5 million units and over 40 saw 1 million units and that's amazing and really industry leading and that's where we have to begin because this was the quarter where you basically said listen september 2013 was when gta 5. you actually told people next year may not be a big up year and the stock still rallied magnificently. is this the beginning of when people get it? >> i hope so. i think we're beginning to demonstrate with the year we just guided to the physical year now that we're a solidly profitable company and not every year will be upwardly sloping but we have a great new title coming up with battle borne that we have high hopes for. >> you're always very conservative. you have evolve. that's a ten pull. will battle bourne be a ten pull? >> we hope. so the game play is great.
3:18 pm
it will be featured at e-3. i never like to overreport. but we are putting all our muscle behind it. >> you do have considerable muscle. there's something i have been thinking about, we have talked often about how you had a billion dollars release. we talked about this morning no movie has ever done that and i always said maybe the comparison is disney. is the comparison more jordan sneakers and nike? he retired years ago. 2.5 billion last year. >> we like to believe we're building permanent franchises. franchises we can bring back to market over and over again and if we can build multiple james bonds of the interactive entertainment business that's what we would like to do. that's one of the reasons we rest our releases for awhile. that's where we don't hit the market annually except for the sports titles and it's the reason we're so focused on quality. we don't put out anything until it's the highest quality it can be. >> i heard you say that but a
3:19 pm
guy points out that there is increased cost discipline i have not often associated that but this is a new phrase that i'm hearing, cost discipline. >> well we always had a strategy of being the most efficient as well as the most creative and innovative and what we do costs a lot of money but we're trying to be very disciplined and we have made progress. >> i want to talk about nba 2-k. it's incredible in this country. people are talking about last night's game. we all checked it out. china, where are they with nba? because it's always been big but is it about to take a step forward? >> it's the number one pc online sports title in china. it's been a great partner. we have something like 24 million registered users. it's massive and generating revenue and profits for us every month. so no signs of abating. so this is a great piece of business for us. one of the few things that
3:20 pm
worked out exactly as planned. it's just the beginning in china. we have civilization coming as well from partners in korea and other titles that we're working on in asia. so the asian market that we just entered in a big way is turning out to be a big contributor for our company. >> other would be asia pacific and not in america. >> we're starting in asia. these are free to play titles. it's a different business model. could we bring them? we have that option but for now it's asia focused. >> are you surprised we almost expect to see a commercial for a video game that we would have thought was a movie? >> i'm not surprised. unless you have grown up in video games i'm not sure one can fully appreciate their cinematic quality now but what we do now is the cutting edge of entertainment. >> that's a great way to look at it. i know when grand theft auto first came out it was clunky. it's been out forever and it is
3:21 pm
its cinematography now. >> it's amazing. when i watch someone else play red dead i feel like i'm in the middle of a western. you hear the crickets chirping you're right there watching people interact. >> i wanted to talk to you about the ceo of intel and he made me sit down and have my face dimensional so i could be a player in the game. is that something you think could help sales. >> that's what i wanted to talk to you about jim. >> i play you and it's my face on the game versus you. do you see that happening or is that just vanity. >> no we're doing it now. you can scan your face and be in the title now. >> you can do it now. it's a little bit clunky which makes it sort of amusing. it's not a plus yet but it's very very good. >> is it additive or candy. >> somewhere between the two. >> i'll take additive any day of the week. even just somewhere between the two. that's the chairman and ceo of
3:22 pm
take-two interactive demonstrating that it's not a hit driven industry as much as it is a catalog that seems to last forever. "mad money" is back after the break. >> coming up, street racing. the strong dollar may be a speed bump for some of the big auto makers but not everyone is letting it slow them down. don't miss cramers take on the issue that could fuel some serious gains.
3:23 pm
3:24 pm
3:25 pm
sometimes the markets obliviousness is enough to make you want to tear your hair out if you have hair. consider the incredible case of fiat chrysler which is becoming the best auto maker around. it's been killing it. ever since the started training under fcau it's been on fire roaring 75% higher. how is this car company the best of business. how can we treat chrysler as if it doesn't exist? there's a long story here. when you factor in history it's easy to see why investors might have lost track of fiat chrysler. during the financial crisis the privately held chrysler was one
3:26 pm
of the hardest hit names in group. they filed for bankruptcy in april 2009. during this period fiat was gradually acquiring chrysler piece by piece. before chrysler went bankrupt the european fiat bought 35% of the company in a deal that would give them access to the north american dealer network and give them a line of smaller more fuel efficient cars then it could sell around the world. sell them everywhere. but then the old chrysler when open and things got calculated. a deal was struck where fiat was given a 20% ownership stake. but the united auto workers became the majority shareholder. that's not exactly a tantalizing proposition is it? fiat bought out the governments and converted debt into equity giving european auto maker a controlling interest in chrysler. they made no secret they wanted to acquire the whole thing and in january of 2014 they bought
3:27 pm
the entirety of the country. it valued chrysler at above $10 billion but all told fiat only had to pay $6.3 billion because it picked up so much during the great recession. it was so opportunistic. early last year they reincorporated as a dutch company and then the stock came public in the nyse last october at $9 a share but i worry that many investors aren't aware this ipo happened. in america most people think of chrysler as the auto maker that flamed out and got acquired by fiat. the company with the italian cars. they don't think of it as something to invest in even though it's the best performing auto maker by far. it comes as sy surprise to some of you that it trades in the u.s. and not just milan. it's back and bigger than ever and better than ever. it's not a punch line and not the loser chrysler used to be. that's why tonight i want you to reexamine and open your mind to
3:28 pm
fiat chrysler because there's a lot to like here. especially given the underperformance of ford and general motors. what does the new fiat chrysler look like? in addition to the old american brands, these are doing quite well, the company has a host of sexy european brands. not just fiat which doesn't count as sexy but ferrari, a couple of other brands with the latter specializing in performance modification for on road sport cars. in short it's not some cheap economy car. they have everything from the more down scale dodge to incredibly upscale sports car brands like ferrari where a single vehicle may cost as much as a small house. there's a reason why they're on ford and gm even if you haven't noticed it come do you understand to currency though. we have been hearing u.s. based national companies talk about how the strong dollar and weak euro make them less competitive overseas but they're taking a
3:29 pm
big chunk out of international sales and fiat chrysler is in the opposite position. this company may get 2-thirds of its sales from the u.s. but it's based in europe. it reports in euros. every dollar here is worth more there than it was a year ago and even though the green back has peaked the dollar is still strong and the euro is still weak which is terrific for companies that do a ton of business in america. that's fiat chrysler to a tee. even though their shipments increased by just 8% in the latest quarter the north american revenue grew by 38% year over year. a staggering figure. but it's not just this company benefitting from the weak euro. they're also extremely well managed and currency aside they are doing quite well in the u.s. since 2012 they have grown market share in this country by 120 basis points. it's hard to take share like that. that's whenever other large oil maker is losing share.
3:30 pm
meanwhile the old chrysler brands have come into their own again. jeep has seen sales volumes grow by 22%. they've been undercutting the competition with it's model 200 mid sized sedan that launched over a year ago selling 17,000 units in the first two days on the market and will be the best selling car this year. rachl sales are up nicely. up 8%. how about the chrysler european business? in europe which had been a horrible place for years this company swung from a loss to a gain. that's right. they're turning a profit in europe thanks to the turn around and the economy. now they're also the number one auto maker in brazil which has been in real trouble. most of latin america has been hideous for the auto business. lately they have filled out the cabinet with more business friendly people. anything can happen here. any stabilization in brazil let alone recovery would be a huge positive. on top of everything else there's a nice internal catalyst coming. they plan to spin off sometimes in the second half of the year.
3:31 pm
now they have been an underperformer. that's partly why i think they can unlock a ton of value but an independent ferrari could get a better evaluation. plus the fiat chrysler's clever ceo has been an outspoken advocate for the space and might make smart acquisitions himself. let me give you the bottom line ford and gm have been getting squeezed by the strong dollar. buy the one member of the big three that actually benefits from the currency impasse. the fiat chrysler. the stock is on fire but with everything this company has going for it i wouldn't be surprised if it had much more room to run. i'm going to rachel in my home state of new jersey rachel. >> hi jim. >> rachel what's up. >> thanks for taking my call. i'm wondering what is your take.
3:32 pm
i have exxon and what's your take on -- >> it's a hold. i'm not going to tell people to buy it. it's unexciting. i do like eog. i know that that was mr. einhorn that knocked the stock down. you want to own the independents. what people are drilling down on and saying they don't like. eog, fine company. steven in california. steven. >> caller: yes, sir. >> steven. you have jim. >> caller: i would like to know what's going on with kraft. i own some shares. a bunch and i would like to know what is going to happen. >> well, it's merging with heinz, you're in a great situation. they have warren buffet's blessing. 3g is in there. they'll take out and grow the company. i wish my charitable trust owned it. we have been talking about it so much. but kraft is real good.
3:33 pm
fiat chrysler is killing it and i don't think it's slowing down any time soon. much more mad money ahead including my earnings exclusive with the ceo of salesforce. but does the king of the cloud even need a deal? and it's a rocky road for retail. don't think about shopping this group until you get my take. plus a brand new edition of the lightning round. stick with cramer.
3:34 pm
3:35 pm
there is an ancient rhythm... [♪] that flows through all things... through rocky spires... [♪] and ocean's swell... [♪] the endless... stillness of green... [♪] and in the restless depths of human hearts... [♪] the voice of the wild within.
3:36 pm
>> salesforce hired bakers to have take over stories. since then microsoft and snp have thrown cold water on the whole idea but who cares. this company stock is now at the same price where it spiked when the rumors first surfaced because it's growing revenues to fast. it's higher than expected revenues rose 23% year over year.
3:37 pm
deferred revenue up 31%. it has $9 billion worth of billed and unbilled revenues and is the fastest growing company in the industry so far. dominating the cloud. let's take a closer look of the founder, chairman and ceo of sales force. learn more about the company's prospects. welcome back to "mad money". >> great to see you. >> you're all over the place. i saw you the other day giving the commencement speech at berkeley. congratulations on that. >> thanks that was a lot of fun and it was great to address that audience. 30,000 people there but what an undergraduate class. >> one of the most interesting things about it we'll get right to it you told the assembled masses that they don't want to work for companies that value just earnings for share.
3:38 pm
does that apply to you too? would you ever work for another company that didn't think about the stake holders? >> for 13 years i worked at oracle and they're about building products and selling them but after 13 years there i felt the huge empty feeling and i realized when i started my own company we'd have to do something much more and that's why we took a different approach. 1% of our equity 1% of profit 1% of all of our employees time. the day we started salesforce we created salesforce foundation. we had no equity no profit no products. but today, you know we have done over 1 million hours of community service. we have given away almost $100 million and we run 25,000 nonprofits and ngos for free. that's a good feeling that comes every single day from being at salesforce. we don't just build product and share them. we do that well.
3:39 pm
but we're also a company that's doing well by doing good. >> well, you're 50 years old. you have tremendous -- >> thank you for reminding me jim. i appreciate that. >> sorry to do that. tremendous values. we'll talk about women being paid less than men. we talked about indiana and how you yourself stopped that law. we can talk about how you got from 6 billion and now 7 billion or the operating cash flow up gigantically. i have to assume you would not look for a company like microsoft or ibm and when i saw you all i heard is all of these companies were about to make a bid for sales force. >> well all i'm doing here in chicago is meeting with our top customers here like state farm that's all i do every day is work with our customers and give them the good news about the cloud, about social about
3:40 pm
mobile, about data science and look i read the news just like everybody else but my goal is just to focus on my customers and make them successful and that's why we deliver these great results. >> don't you find it ironic your stock is trading within a dollar of when oracle microsoft, ibm and sap were supposed to be buying you? >> i'll be a lot more excited when we announce with you on the show that we're the fastest to 10 billion. today we're the fastest to 6 billion but that's the past. i'm all about the future and all i'm focused on now is my dream and my dream is to be the fastest software company to $10 billion and that's what i'm working on every single day. >> let's talk about what you're doing for customers. there's a guy, bill mcdermott. he was saying you're the most expensive. you get the least for the devices. prices are about to drop and revenues will be under pressure for you and the most blue chip account i can get in germany would be coca-cola germany.
3:41 pm
that didn't go to sap. it went to you. is that because you're the most overpriced in delivering it now? >> the number one thing i know about sap is the customers we have to have like coca-cola, dupont caterpillar and so many others. i didn't see the quarterly results. how does our quarter compare to theirs? >> i'm a ghandi-like fella. that wouldn't be civil disobedience. >> i didn't hear that. can you say that again? >> i think you have raised good points. how about that. >> okay. >> let's talk about home depot. they're a great customer of yours. i'm trying to get people to understand, people asked him why and he said we not only offered spring season product online but also leveraged digital media channels to highlight local
3:42 pm
instore assortments and create footsteps to our store. our mobile app helped customers identify product location with our enhanced product locator. he did not mention salesforce but that has to be your engine no. >> i was in a meeting with the ceo and what an honor it's been working with them and i'll tell you jim and we have talked about this now on the show maybe half a dozen times, they're the model for retail. the key to being a great retailer today is unifying simplifying and integrating the virtual world and physical world. home depot has done that. all you have to do is go to the site community.homedepot.com and you see how they increased their store traffic by integrating their employees in such a smart way. every retailer needs to pay attention to what happened at home depot and that's the magic. i mean you know we're working also with burberry and other
3:43 pm
great retailers. they all want to connect with their customers in a new way. they're building one-on-one relationships and leveraging kmuns to do that. >> you're right. home depot is not adding a lot of storage. they're doing it all by getting more out of the customer which is is the customer retentions and customers relation program. now this quarter you dealt with indiana and you also said when i meet you last you talked about going through line by line. each woman trying to see how to get it so they have equal pay and equal titles so you can do $6 billion and you were able to double that cash flow 50% increase operating cash flow. do these not hurt your business? in other words, indiana, the rumors on the takeover not dis distract you? these things are not negative. they're positive. >> jim i'm running a company based on stakeholders not
3:44 pm
shareholders and women are at sales force as are my employees. i want to make sure we're building a great company built on customers, employees, partners, the environment, yes, our shareholders are important as well but we have a lot of stake holders at sales force. we have been busy. we have been righting wrongs and we have been fighting for gender equality and equality for all but the number one thing is helping our customers make their customers successful and we're all about helping our customers connect in a whole new way. sales, services marketing and community and analytics and apps and all of those businesses performed well this quarter. that's what i'm excited about. >> i know you din do any of these things for any other reason other than they were right to do. is it possible that indiana, women and equal pay, is it
3:45 pm
possible that the 1% that you gave actually helped? that your company is more profitable because of this? >> companies will only do business with us if they trust that we'll do the right thing. we'll do the right thing for women and gays in indiana about to be discriminated against by governor mike pence and we'll do the right thick for our governors when they have trouble. our job jim is to make all of these stakeholders successful. how can we say we're going to help you trust us but on the other side we ignore something that's wrong. that's never going to fly. so look we're integrated. we have to provide that unified approach. that's how i look at business. i look at myself as a leader of my company, of my community and of my industry. that's what i'm doing and that's
3:46 pm
what i think everyone at salesforce and our customers want me to do. that's why i'm doing it. i'm an advocate for our employees and customers. that's all there is. >> that's a great place to leave it. congratulations on a great quarter. good to see you, sir. >> great to see you, jim. >> guys what can i say? up here now on earnings and not on takeovers. stay with cramer.
3:47 pm
3:48 pm
3:49 pm
it is time it is time for the lightning round. are you ready? time for the lightning. my home state of pennsylvania. >> caller: a philly booyah. what's the story on flex. >> i don't know. it does seem to be stalled. it's a very expensive stock. let's not give up on them. dy dylan in new york. >> caller: i wanted to ask your opinion. >> the charitable trust owns it.
3:50 pm
we're working back and forth on it. the company is not told the story. tremendous. marty in florida. >> caller: technicals. >> extraordinary. that ladies and gentlemen is the conclusion of the lightning round. >> the lightning round is sponsored by t.d. ameritrade. like a custom screener on your desktop, that updates to all your devices. and you can share it with one click. wow. how do you find the time to do all this? easy. we combined every birthday and holiday into one celebration. (different holidays being shouted) back to work, guys! i love this times of year. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this.
3:51 pm
3:52 pm
3:53 pm
you can't get real growth in retail unless you grow as a country. we can grow in two ways with new budding families otherwise known as household. over a long enough time rise in population growth leads to economic growth. growing our population has been weak since the great recession. household formation has been abnormal and lousy. they have less likely to have children and need to move out. immigration is running below the norm because our patch work immigration process kept more people from crossing our boarders. you don't need me to chime in on that polarizing topic but the fact is the lack of population growth for new household formation has been behind the
3:54 pm
economy. it's talked about at one place and that's home depot or specifically to home depot conference call. that's specifically when the ceo pines about it and puts it in the context of consumer spending at her company. she knows that household formation, departing from your family in your own home is key growth to her industry. the country was in a desen balance. we would be growing households at a nice clip. 1.3 million. that kind of household formation can eat into single family housing starts. which right before the recession was the norm. we spiked right before the recession but if you look at multiple years. however we began to get highly unusual household formation numbers. sometimes it was as low as 400,000 or 500,000 a year. that's not enough to spur much
3:55 pm
growth for new housing units or existing ones or stores. but now things coming back to normal. yesterday home depot flagged a household formation figure. we could see a dramatic increase in growth for home depot because if we just return to the old trend line there will be 4 million new households created quickly. that's because one third of the 18 to 24 cohort are living at home. we don't know if this trend is a trend. the need to have children would get us back to normal. that didn't happen. if it happened now it could really make a difference to sales for the whole retail cohort. not just home depot or william sonoma. it's getting better. growing salaries matter not getting better. student loan balances are getting worse and credit
3:56 pm
matters. it's thawing slowly. however if more households are formed that puts a bid under the value of housing. if more people are more confident about their homes moving up in value they're consider their homes being an investment and not spending. that process is behind the better than expected numbers particularly as people are starting to spend on bigger and bigger ticket items. the trend is so important yet so obscure. as we get more and more new households more and more investment in the households. that's how you get increase in a $900 water heater. however it's also why you see hard goods favored over soft goods retailers. they have no tangible value to the home. watch this household formation number. this is the rising tide. that's despite today's decline caused by disappointing results from lowe's. it will pull up all of household spending and then the real long awaited non-fed aided recovery
3:57 pm
will finally begin. stick with cramer.
3:58 pm
3:59 pm
low and behold salesforce.com is higher than where it was when all of those rumors came out. you know how it did it? rumors per share? no earnings per share and sales per share of which it is the king. not just of the cloud. i'd like to say there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to try to find it for you right here on "mad money" i'm jim cramer and i'll see you tomorrow.
4:00 pm
eight million people. fire two more risottos. that's four all-day-- everything we do is on a mega, mega level. -there's a four-hour wait. -is there, really? all i want to do is just win. win. announcer: 24 thousand restaurants. i'm not gonna close the restaurant. hell to the no. -you're losing money by the minute. -losing money by the minute. our family legacy is on the line here. a million dollars is (bleep). it really is. announcer: three businesses at a crossroads... our goals are the same. we both wanna be (bleep) rich. ...fighting for their piece of a $34-billion industry. you've got to bulldoze your way into (bleep). this is crazy! this restaurant's my life. it's gonna work no matter what. announcer: a budding empire. we've grown a $45 million business. the meatball shop is a proven, successful concept. we need $4 million to open restaurants.

328 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on