wti heads for ten straight weeks of gains but the ceo of u.s. steal tells nbc it will take time for the recovery in oil prices to move through to the economic sector. >> you need more stability to have a better guess as to where this thing is going to go. i still believe it's going to take the whole of this year for things to get better. good morning, everyone. let's kick things off with

economic data. we have the business climate index falling to 108.5 points in the month of may. that is versus a reuters consensus photograph for 108.3. so slightly higher than expected. it's still a drop for the month of april. that's when we saw 108.6. a bit of a move in the euro hitting the day's high. let's look at the other data coming out, that's 103 in the month of may versus a consensus photograph of 103.1. that's shy of forecasts but the headline index is better than expected. we did have the index earlier this week some what disappointing. the pmi leveling off. >> is this a sign of germany cooling off or seasonal factors

in play? >> overnight the german finance ministry came out and said we're still expecting growth to pick up for the remainder of the year and they still have more than 1.5%. >> let's get to annetta who is live. thank it away. >> well thank you very much. of course growth and unemployment and inflation are the big topics here and i'm joined by the chief economist at icd. was that what you were looking for? >> absolutely. europe as a whole is looking a lot better and when the main engine of europe is even firing faster that really makes my projections look much better. so i'm looking forward to seeing more good data coming in for europe. >> some economists are arguing

that it's good because it leads to an adjustment process. do you think that as well? >> well germany has a very strong labor market and very low in unemployment rate and you would expect to see wages rise and with the minimum wage increase workers think of themselves as against the base. when the base risers they expect their wages to raise as well. it makes them for them to be expecting higher wages. it's also very good for germany and europe if german consumption increase which is we would expect if people have more money to spend and they're going to go out and spend it. german goods, that's good for germany. european goods, that's good for europe. >> looking at what the vice president of the fed was saying yesterday that he thinks that looking at the state of play now t european monetary union will survive so that's good news. bad news is though that he thinks that in longer term there needs to be more adjustments so

that people also have prosperity. what has to be done? >> there's a range of things that need to be done within every country. they all have their unique characteristics but they have the single monetary policy working in the direction of providing the basis for prosperity in europe. the quantitative easing program. we'd like to see more efrtfort on the physical side. some have space. that would create additional space as well and then within countries, individual countries have challenges with regard to regulated product markets. maybe some issue on the labor side and then in general, across within europe as a whole there are some issues with regard to the banking and capital markets union. there's process on that. we'd like to see more. >> well the capital markets union that was depicted by policy makers as the big goal and also replacing bank financing at that time. do you think that's realistic? >> i don't think we're looking

at a situation where you go completely from bank financing to other source of equity financing and so forth. it's a balance. different types of businesses are more likely to use banks or the capital markets so what the objective is is to promote prosperity and the kind of growth in business. it's a mix. you really need a mix and different countries will find different balances within a broad perspective of the capital markets union as a whole. >> let us also look at what the ecb has done more to aid the economy. they have done a lot. do you think there's room for more. >> the quantitative easing program is designed to continue through this year next year or until inflation gets to the 2% objective. they already said that's what they're going to do. now, there are additional things that they could perhaps do to package up small business loans for example and sell them as

securities. that would be both promoting capital markets as well as promoting credit extension and improve the credit channel. there's a range of things they could do but they want to see how this works first before they start layering off on a whole other set of instruments. >> looking at how these things work now, we also have the bond market, like perhaps we could call it turbulence but we had a little bit of a pick up in yields. do you think that's counter intuitive to what we actually get from the ecb? >> so the ecb is adding additional liquidity in the market and we saw the implications of that coming through with the negative yields on sovereign bonds and they're not realistic. that means that people are saying i'll give the central bank 100 jurors rows and get 95 euros back in three years. that doesn't make any sense. the negative yields are evidence of a weakness situation in europe and i think the rebound in yields is the market saying i

think europe is doing better and some of these negative yields ought to be unwound. >> so essentially you say the pick up in yields is a positive story. >> correct. the negative yields are a little overshot but the pick up in yields it represents the better day coming for europe and saying europe is coming out of the woods. >> thank you very much catherine. >> you're very welcome. >> i wish you fruitful discussions here. >> thank you. >> i also spoke to another central banking source here on the ground and they were saying the pick up in yields is not the problem in itself but the problem is what actually might happen in the future if we have more volatility in the bond market and what that means for certain marries in the financial market. we're talking about financial stability here. >> it was just one week ago where the implied volatility was at a two year high.

thank you so much. >> we're a little more than one hour in the trading session. we saw new record highs for the snp although volumes have dropped off a cliff going into the memorial day weekend but also asia saw quite a big rally. the stoxx europe 600 not doing much this morning. we're just close to the session lows. i don't think anyone wants to take on too much risk going into the yellen comments later today but also the long holiday we have coming up here in europe. we're seeing the luxury stocks under a little pressure in switzerland because they came out with disappointing numbers. the xetra dax close to the flat line with a negative buy so the ftse 100 higher. in the bond markets we are seeing prices moving higher. yields down. but not much movement here. the ten year german yield below

10 basis points. yesterday we saw a decline in yields on the back of disappointing economic data. we had housing sales weaker than expected. we had a rise in jobless claims that was higher than expected and then the weak u.s. manufacturing numbers but we'll talk more about that later on in the show. in the currency markets well the dra doctor is on the back foot a little but before this week it's on track for a 2% gain. euro dollar gaining strength. now higher by 0.4% and 11160. the yen not seeing too much of a reaction. we get the figures out of the u.k. at about 20 minutes time. keep an eye on it at 15656 flat on the day. commodity space, big move in oil price. we saw that 3% jump but brent crude and wti are losing a

little bit of steam yesterday off by 0.4% but the big jump yesterday came on the back of geopolitical concerns around iraq but also primarily the lower u.s. inventories. for this week wti is on track for the tenth week of gains. also markets in asia. sri, what drove that rally once again? >> that's right. another blistering rally for mainland equities closing almost 3% higher. you're looking at 7 year highs and on track for its best week in almost two months. now it was sector rotation because the financials have been beaten up so investors picking up the pieces and buying out those lower levels. so sec sorrowation back into the financials but here's the thing, we continue to see investors getting back into the market. if they missed the rally this time but buying stocks on credit

so we're seeing an accumulation of margin debt and in terms of the current levels this is where we stand. about 2 trillion. that's the equivalent of 320 u.s. dollars. it's fuelled by margin debt as well. doesn't appear investors are looking at the fundamentals of the company. elsewhere, hang seng having a strong day. we saw the blue chips in demand. yes, the boj are on hold but they did release a slightly upbeat view of the broader economy. some are saying it's a little bit premature given the fact that we still have not seen any meaningful capital spending that is so needed as a catalyst to really unleash this virtuous cycle of spending. that will get it back to the target of 2%.

that's where we stand at the end of the week. back to you now. >> a screen of green behind you. thank you so much. coming up on the show. ladies and gentlemen, start your engines. indy 500 and formula one drivers gear up for one of the biggest weekends in motor racing. plus is uber driving full speed ahead toward an ipo? they're seeking a $1 billion credit line for banks fuelling speculation and the media mna frenzy continues. they're plotting an offer for time warner cable well above comcasts failed bid. all of those details coming up in two minutes.

welcome back. we have a little commentary coming from mario draghi. a great deal has been created in structural reforms including in portugal. being in the early stages of recovery is no reason not to make structural reforms. a great deal of progress has been made in europe on the structural reforms and they can increase long-term growth. >> greek leaders say they are

optimistic of reaching a cash for reforms deal with creditors in the next ten days. however after meeting with the greek prime minister before an eu summit german chancellor merkel cautioned there was still work to be done. >> translator: i spoke last night with the french president and the greek prime minister. we had the friendly and constructive discussion but it is also clear there's still a lot more work to be done with the three institutions. france and germany have always offered to answer questions and the final solution must be found with the three institutions. >> he says it's brighter today than in seven years. this is based on the eq program but i want to talk to you about greece. there's a lot of talk this week about a possible extension. what are you hearing? >> there was certainly talk yesterday in the german press

that we might see a temporary deal done as far as greece is concerned right now. it does sound very optimistic anden extension to this deal makes sense. they need to be in a program but they're not going to get around doing something about pensions and labor forms too. otherwise they'll have the imf on board and the likes of portugal there. they have elections coming up this year. a solution is coming but it's not going to be quite as optimistic as what we heard in the last 24 hours or so. >> what's more important, getting that extension or presenting a comprehensive reform package? >> that's a good question. that's not going to happen without a staff level agreement which is the phrase that the brussels group will use on these reforms now. there's no getting around that.

what we do need to see, they're talking about ten days now is coming up with an interim deal. you're not going to hear about an extension to that program until we've got that in place. it will upset too many people to do that. but what we did hear this morning, the usual mixed messages is that they'll make all payments in june. so that 1.5 billion euros spread over four payments so that's different than the threats from the house speaker. i wonder if they said get the message straight and stop trying to create waves. >> he says monetary policy is working it's way through the economy. growth is picking up. what the cyclical recovery does achieve is to provide near per perfect conditions. it can be tailored to specific countries in the monetary union.

has greece ever benefitted from the qe program in anyway shape, or form? >> we know as far as bond buying is concerned it was excluded. there was talk at the time that it was created to exclude greece in the interim. when the bonds roll off in july then they'll become eligible provided this deal has been signed. that could be a real uplift for them. not many of the bonds are actually in private hands but the general confidence could be very important for greece. >> through but the indirect effects, greece may have benefitted. >> absolutely. on that perspective more broadly than yes they will. but as far as greece is concerned there's a lack of investment and a lack of confidence. all of these things will benefit more. very little going on more broadly in the last five months. >> the story continues to get more and more interesting.

for now, thank you so much. switching focus to the u.s. david cameron is keeping the push for the eu reform just weeks after his surprise election victory. cameron told reporters he was determined to give them a quote, proper choice on europe. >> all i'd say is that there will be ups and downs. you'll hear one day this is possible. the next day something else is impossible but one thing throughout all of this will be constant and that is my determination to deliver a reform of the european union so they get a proper choice. that will be constant but there will be lots of noise and ups and downs along the way. >> british officials say cameron will go to berlin and paris late next week for talks with german chancellor angela merkel and french president on reform efforts. >> it's the big european political event of the week.

the song contest final takes place tomorrow evening in vienna. sit more than cheesy tunes and strange out fits? long on for the movers and shakers at the big show. >> i have been very impressed by the outfits and the media coverage. >> are you going to watch? >> why not? my first time. >> it's a big european thing. you can go to the states and say i watched this. >> let's take a look at the stocks on the move in europe. shares are halted after dropping 5% at the open. this after the tus can-- lender said it has a dispoint. italy's third largest bank raised funds from investors last year worth 5 billion euros. meantime vodafone leading the ftse 100 as they raise the price

target on the stock. it was already given a boost earlier this week on mna speculation as john malone suggested a tie up would make sense. this stock has risen 11%. wow. meantime online gambling company 888 moving higher in london after announcing a majority of shareholders agreed to back a proposed take over of the competitor. there was significant industrial in the tie up. >> and last but not least they saw an 8% drop in april sales citing tough trade conditions. we got numbers from them last month. that's when they warn on their profits because of losses on currency hedges. i'm surprised we're seeing such a big negative reaction today but it's all about april and may. april wasn't that great but may seems to be stabilizing. group sales were flat in the

first two weeks so maybe that was really the trough that we saw in hong kong. >> i agree. weaker than expected sales from the key chinese market and second is the volatility that's not going away. that's something investors have to factor in going forward for these companies with significant exposure overseas. >> that's true. but that said the big move in january is probably not going to be repeated and a lot of people think this is why they saw the losses on the financial hedges but once they have a little bit more clarity on what they're actually doing, the cost space has gone up and in a way this company will have to think about whether it's relocating some of the cost space though that's easier said than done because there's big cost relocated.

>> you think about these companies it comes down to brand equity. they can command that price tag because they had the strong brand name but going forward with apple already in the swatch space, what does that mean for the luxury players? that was one of the angles we were covering when the watch was unveiled at -- what was it called? what was the store i went to -- >> where did you go? the big one in london. >> there you go! . it was steps away. question is they can compete in that market. >> they don't want to compete in that market. that comment was made this morning by management. they don't want to follow in their footsteps because they're working on a semismart watch but they don't want to do that. >> cartier is so much higher but the fact that more consumers now

with switch to more value is a potential head wind. let's talk about another stock in focus. first quarter revenue fell 7%. slightly missing forecast hurt by the stronger dollar but earnings were above estimates. hp will divide into two separate companies on november 1st. that split will cost billions but hp also says there will also be $1 billion in cost savings. taking a look at shares hp rose about 1% in after hours. you can see it's up about three quarters of a percent in frankfurt. mega meg whitman will be on cnbc at 9:00 a.m. eastern. moving on formula one boss is taking legal action against british tax officials after

facing a u.k. tax claim of more than 1 billion pounds. the man says he is taking the action as the hmrc has not respected an agreement they made back in 2008. the case concerns the family's trust set up in 1997. he does not know why the agreement over the status of the trust had been torn up adding quote i paid all the taxes i've ever had to pay. >> and this weekend is one of the busiest of the year. the french open kicks off in paris and the world's top drivers race for the finish in two of the premiere races in motor sports. >> we want to know from you. >> we want to hear from you on this. if you could attend any of the sporting events this weekend which one would it be? the f-1 or french open or something else. join in on the conversation here on worldwide exchange. we're talking sports on this

friday morning by e-mail at cnbc.com. tweet us at cnbcwex. our personal handles on the bottom of the screen. what are you looking forward to? >> i'm a big tennis fan so i'm looking forward to actually going and seeing the french open. >> who are you putting your money on? >> djokovic. nadal has been below par. >> he was injured. >> but he hasn't been doing that well. i hear we're out of time. let's talk tennis during the break. >> we'll do it. still to come on the show which driver will be on the winner's podium at this weekend's grand prix? steve will join us live from monte carlo in an hour's time with his predictions. don't go away.

ecb president mario draghi says the economic outlook for the euro area is brighter than it has been for seven years. this as german business confidence slips in the month of may. >> grexit and brexit dominate a summit. david cameron sets out his referendum. angela merkel presses for reforms. >> we had a friendly and constructive discussion but it is also clear that there's still

a lot more work to be done with the three institutions. >> the luxury goods maker ticks low in europe after missing sales expectations. wti heads for ten straight weeks of gains but the ceo says it will take time for the recovery in oil prices to feed through to the commodity sector. >> you need more stability to be able to have a better guess as to where this thing is going to go. i still believe that it's going to take the whole of this year for things to get better. >> let's get straight to u.k. data and it's another boost for chancellor george osborne. according to statistics excluding state controlled banks. that was down almost 27% from a year ago and that is the lowest short fall for that month since

2008. the public sector budget deficit narrowing more than expected. keep in mind though this is the first month of the new fiscal year 2015 2016 so it's not a great indication of how the rest of the year is going to play out according to analysts from rbc and we get an updated budget in the month of july and that could change barring a little bit more. sterling dollar 156, 60. we saw that move yesterday. >> we did. >> we're looking at sterling at 15 against the u.s. dollar. let's take a look at european markets narrowing the deficit is what the data showed us here in the u.k. let's look at how markets are reacting to that. ftse 100 has been going higher: it's up 20 points.

business confidence slipping in the month of may. moving slightly lower. the cac 40 down about.3% and the italian market which is the big winner so far in 2015 up about 25%. in today's trade, minor losses down just about 35 points. >> in the bond markets we're looking at pretty steady yields for a change. the ten year bund yield is steady around 60 basis points. we didn't see much of a move overnight. in the 10 year treasury yield space 2.1% being the level and that fell on the back of disappointing data. very light trading volumes because we're going into a long holiday weekend. >> we sure are. >> the bank of japan slightly revised higher it's economic outlook and latest policy decision. we have the story live from tokyo. >> thank you carolyn, the bank of japan decided to maintain the status quo by an 8-1 vote.

a result that came as no surprise. it also expects cpi to accelerate gradually. remain stable throughout the year. one big focus was how the boj would respond to the better than expected january to march preliminary gdp growth figures announced on wednesday. at the conference it was clear that the boj's economic assessment was more upbeat than before. they emphasized that private consumption is resilient. but what was interesting was he refrained from being too positive about the current economic condition. he was likely trying to avoid disapointing the market. if they show too much optimism over the economy this may spark speculation that additional easing is off the desk though he wants long-term inflation expectations to help keep the real interest rate low. so he was juggling optimism together with some caution. it's also to note that with the

boj likely to keep monetary policies unchanged for awhile much of the limelight is shifting to the corporate governance code going into place this june. let's see how this could boost japanese equities. carolyn, back to you. >> a u.s. asset manager became nintendo's largest shareholder. they have upped the stake to just over 16% of the japanese gaming giant. taking a look at price action and shares of nintendo. let's just bring it up for you. we don't have it. we'll bring it to you after the break. >> nintendo is creating a stir by hiring a new vp of sales with a name that's almost too good to be true. find out why gaming fans are cheering the appointment. that's on cnbc.com. what is the name. do you know? i'll have to check it out. better reason to go to cnbc.com. let's have a look at what the euro is doing over the course of

the week. a big drop compared to last friday. then we have the speech coming and there you go. over the last seven days euro dollar down 2%. joining us now to discuss is the head of european fx strategy at morgan stanley. i'm borrowing a line from your colleagues that say the spring cleaning of positions in the fx markets is over. do you agree with that? >> i think that is very much the case. we have seen over the course of the past few weeks a significant correction taking place in currency markets along side correction in asset markets as well and when you look at where some of the biggest moves have developed it's been in european markets. the euro rebounding at the same time as european bond yields moving higher and equities also lower during that period as

well. that was where some of the biggest positions in the market were we believe. so the fact that we have seen the markets moving in unison during that period it does suggest that we have seen a position adjustment taking place and looking at many of our indicators and our opposition tracking it does suggest that although the positioning has been adjusted we're in a position where overall the market is far more neutral and that does allow the more bullish views to start to be expressed easily again. the market is likely to become far more sensitive to positive surprises coming from the u.s. we have started to see some evidence of that over the course of the past couple of weeks. we had very little negative impact over the dollar. so we do believe that euro

dollar has now traded up top although it may be a little bit time consuming and still a little bit volatile in the near term, i think any moves to the upside now for euro dollar are likely to be limited and we're in a position whereby the longer term down trend is set to be resumed. >> the other side of the trade is the dollar. the fed has been slow to act and behind the curve. how important is today's cpi inflation number? what does that mean for the dollar going forward? >> the market is still going to be looking very closely at this data. it is going to be an important number. the market expectations are still preferring the number to be soft on the weak side. from that perspective if it does produce another softer reading it shouldn't have too much impact on the markets.

on the other hand we could start to see that feeding through to the dollar. that will be a key signal. if we see the dollar reacting to positive news, that does send the signal that we're likely to see this dollar preparing to resume it's up trend. >> we have a couple upon us at this side of the bond and in the u.s. as well with memorial day monday. is it officially the start of the summer lull or do you think we simply won't see that in the fx markets this year? >> yes we still have a lot of risk events on the horizon. the more traditional might appear over the summer and may not appear this year. we have the focus on developments on policy and on the developments with regards to greece. obviously in the u.s. as well focus on the feds. there's developments and risk

factors in the market. investors very much on their toes over the summer months. >> thank you for your time. have a fantastic long holiday weekend. head of european fx strategy over at morgan stanley. switching gears, the un said it is deeply concerned about civilians in the city of palmyra after reports suggest that forces loyal to the president prevented residents from leaving the town as it was overrun by isis militants. this footage showed the site under attack from islamic state fighters. the destruction of the ruins would be an enormous loss to humanity. >> meanwhile saudi arabia says fossil fuels could be a thing of the past within 25 years. speaking at a climate change in paris, they aim to become global power in solar and wind energy. hadley is on the shores of the

dead sea in jordan and we're hearing similar tones from jordan. >> that's right. we heard from his majesty earlier this week telling us that he is very bullish on renewables and he'll do anything to make it happen for jordan. oil prices have been lower in this country. they're a net energy importer and king abdullah telling us he is looking at wind and solar and bringing new deals to this country. take a listen. >> we are going to be moving with the chinese and very big deal of wind and solar and that's going to be moving and we're going to see renewables for jordan in the future. >> talk to me about those strategic deals you're talking about. the deal with the chinese. very exciting for jordan. what other deals are we going to see in the pipeline? >> well, we do have obviously

nuclear for two on the table. renewable for many different companies but the big one is the chinese. we're the first country in the region where the government starting it and most government institutions and military security are all going for administrational vehicles all electric. we have 5,000 schools that will lead -- sorry, 50 schools but 3,000 schools in jordan will all be renewable energy. so all the public schools will be renewable and that shows the trend of how we're thinking and how we're adapting. >> china isn't the only place where jordan is looking to sign some deals. they signed some deals now with the russians.

two nuclear power plant pa silties coming online. this is an exciting time for jordan and king abdullah has been at the forefront of pushing for renewables and wants to get the schools online in terms of powering them with batteries. so exciting times in terms of deals but a lot of interesting things happening here. you have to also remember that we're hearing from the egyptian president and also hearing from big business leaders here in the region telling the us that it's business as usual despite all the regional chaos. >> thank you so much for that report. that's hadley gamble at the dead sea in jordan. still to come on worldwide exchange lower raw materials prices have thrown a lifeline to chinese deal makers. how are they coping with the competition? we hear from the ceo of u.s. steel, next.

welcome back. the global medals gathered in london last night for the annual awards. this against the backdrop of metal prices and outlook for comod tis. we caught up with the winner of ceo of the year award and asked whether he was worried about china's gaining market share.

>> well i think what is important to note is that as the world globalizing itself more and more important is the fed. china has grown beyond their own means. so what they do is they dump it around the world for the most part and then it becomes an issue for the united states which becomes probably one of the most open countries in the world. that becomes a significant problem. >> you called for tariffs on chinese steel imports. they are trying to send a message to the rest of asia. how successful do you think you're likely to be for this call? >> i go back to the fundamental thing that as the world trades with itself the rule of law is a key element. that's what we want. we want a level playing field where everybody plays by the

same rules and in that environment trade is really a good thing but it's not a good thing if some players play by one set of rules and the united states play by the other set of rules. >> if there was a leveling of the playing field as you call it, what do you think the market share of the chinese producers would be? >> certainly a lot less than what it is today. it takes the only remedy we've been able to use so far is the application of trade cases but they're temporary measures. what we are doing right now with tpa being discussed, one of the key elements that tpa has to have is a clear definition of what the standard for injury is. that is there. this is a very good thing for everybody. >> to what extent it's changing in china itself. access to financing, the economic factors there. is this causing more pressure on the chinese steel makers that

could force them out of business per se? >> it does. china, the overexpansion of the basic manufacturing has created a significant issue that is an environmental issue. so i think several of these elements are coming together now that are forcing the chinese government to take a more ridged action to the yield with them. the other thing is i think central government still has difficulty dealing with the provinces but all of this seems to be conversion so that they can add a daptapt and adjust. >> a strong el nino event later this year. it last struck about five years ago causing a rapid rise in agriculture commodity prices. if el nino hits some of our favorite foods like chocolate could double in price. that's pretty bad news.

let's see where we're headed. joining us is chris, head of agricultural desk analytics. the problem i have with el nino. every year they forecast one. last year they did and it never came. is it actually going to hit us this year. >> it's a struggle to know exact exactly. it's a disruption in the sea in the pacific ocean. more and more models are pointing toward the stronger el nino coming through. there are some models still calling for a weaker event but the way we treat the phenomenon is a risk factor. we need to be watching eastern australia and southeast asia and west africa and if historic weather patterns become to come through you can start to lose agriculture production. >> which soft commodities will

be hit the most? where can we see a big rise in prices? >> i think from a perspective there's some risk in west africa. prices are quite reasonable already today. we have seen a little bit of weakness in data in europe recently. seeing where it's difficult to get the expoints higher nen shl move, when you look toward the other agriculture commodities, where we have seen the downward cycle for the last couple of years there's more chance of upside and as we lose that production we'll reverse the stock gain. >> do you need you need the expertise of a meteorologist. >> 90% of what we do is weather. >> do you have weather men in house?

>> we have meteorologist on team andconsultants. but at the end of the day we can normally tell what's going to happen in the next 15 day of weather but it's still risk taking and guess work to what really might be happening. >> talk to us about palm oil. dryness in southeast asia. could that result in weaker demand in general from southeast asia? >> from a supplies perspective. if we get this dryness come through, there's a lagged impact so the dryness today will lead to production lost in 12 to 18 months time. it's been weak recently. it's dented by the drop in the fuel price. if we started to lose production in conjunction with the new policies coming through for subsidies and reform there is to boost demand it could certainly reverse this weak trend we've seen in palm oil recently. >> coffee prices have been

rising. that's a big story in 2014 and 2015. what happens going forward. >> the el nino should be positive there in terms of production. we get dryness in southeast asia and australia, we get wetter than normal conditions in brazil which is one of the key regions if we see that pattern there's room for optimism. we've seen descent rains that helped this year's crop recover from the disaster of last year. >> if the price continues to go higher i'm going to have to switch the tea. >> that's a big problem. talk to us about positioning, specifically in the weak space. to what extent has positioning now adjusted to the threat of el nino? >> we've seen a little bit but the latest data print is as of last friday and it still showed pretty much record short positions. they have been built into the market because to date we had a

2014 weather year near perfect and this year so far has been very good. these risk factors, wheat prices responded and then you've seen gains all through this week as well. that will be indicating some of that position coming out of the market. but we are historically short. so any weather risk that gets injected in there there's certainly the possibility for a short covering rally. >> but the other part of the story is a stronger dollar which at this point seems to continue to move to the upside. especially if the data continues to surprise to the upside. >> from an agriculture perspective there's some impact from the dollar but seeing as the us. is so dominant in that supply and everything is so largely dollar denominated anyway we haven't seen any widespread changes and the most important thing is from a consumer side the demand is elastic. so the change in price doesn't change consumption. it might change origins here or

there but you only have a finite amount of supply. >> always a fun discussion. thank you for joining us here on worldwide exchange. head of agriculture desk analytics. now switching focus, uber is seeking a $1 billion credit line from banks. a possible move toward an even actual ipo. the wall street journal says the ride sharing company recently contacted several large banks asking how much they would willing to commit to the loan. about 6 to 7 are expected to be part of the facility but the journal says an ipo is not expected until next year at the earliest. >> why would they? valuations are so high. why would they go public right now. the other is as you pointed out it may be prestige to go forward with an ipo. >> seems like natural progression that you feel like you need to achieve the

milestone and go public. but the valuations are getting the private market suggest they don't need to to get the capital. more coming up in just a bit but flashes coming out of greece. >> absolutely. we are hearing from the greek prime minister. he says that very soon they should be able to reach a viable solution in talks with creditors. we hear this every single day. the greeks are probably more optimistic. angela merkel saying intensitive work is still needed. we are looking like this. the dax just a touch lower by 0.1%. the ftse 100 out performing higher by 0.5% and mna speculation, the cac 40 off by a

quarter of 1%. >> a quick look at u.s. futures. the focus has been on janet yellen and the data out of the u.s. that cpi number very important in telling when we will potentially get a fed rate rise. s&p 500 up marginally. the dow higher open by 7 points and tech heavy nasdaq that closed at 5,090 yesterday below the record high up about 3 points in premarket trade thanks to am shares. now still to come on worldwide exchange central bankers gathered in portugal. there are economic storm clouds on the horizon. we're live with the latest.

good morning and welcome to worldwide exchange. >> let's goat straight to the headlines. central bankers taking center stage. ecb president mario draghi says the economic outlook for the euro area is brighter than it's ever been for seven years. >> this as janet yellen prepares to speak later for the market tuning in on more clues for the timing of the rate hike. >> another mega deal in the works. charter communications is preparing a bid for time warner cable well above $170 a share.

>> uber drives the ipo rumor mill as they seek a $1 billion credit line from banks. >> and sales take a hit from the stronger dollar but quarterly earnings beat the street as hp says the break up is on schedule for november. >> the nasdaq composite wasn't able to surpass it's all time high of 5,092 but still up about 19 points. a lot of that having to do with share of apple thanks to a positive note out of morgan stanley. when you take a look at u.s. markets so far the best performing sector is health care. up about 10% year to date and a

big proponent of health care is bio tech. despite the volatility in the index. it's now up 19% year to date. right now a higher open. the dow up about 11 points and may be ahead of a memorial weekend but this is a big day from wall street. we hear from janet yellen and get the cpi inflation number and the fed has a duel mandate. they need a stronger labor market as well as inflation at 2% which it's not at right now. a lot of focus on where inflation is to give us a better idea of the fed's timetable. take a look at european markets. a mixed session so far here on friday after gains earlier this week. the xetra dax at 11,859. the cac 40 with a loss of five points and take a look at the italian markets trading at 23,740. looking at these, the best performing index so far this

year is the italian markets up about 23% and we did see a narrowing current account deficit in the u.k. that's one of the reasons it's higher up by around 32 points. also helping the u.k. index is the better than expected retail sales number we got out. that resulted in the pound strengthening against the dollar. >> we still have the story surrounding vodafone. up 11% since wednesday. we'll show you what the currency markets are doing. a little softness still continuing from yesterday's trading session on the back of the worst than expected economic data yesterday. all eyes today on yellen and cpi numbers slightly better than expected numbers. the yen not moving too much on

the fact that they kept policy unchanged and sterling dollar flat on the day. 15652 after the big move yesterday. in the oil markets we're seeing brent and wti giving back some of yesterday's gains if we can bring up those oil prices there you go brent crude off by a third of 1%. wti off by a third of 1% as well. >> up higher by more than 3% and big draw down in inventories. this weekend going to be a very very busy weekend for drivers according to aaa the u.s. travel should reach a ten year high over memorial day. keep an eye on those gas prices. >> moving on janet yellen is speaking about the economy today when she addresses the greater providence chamber of commerce in rhode island. yellen may comment on the labor market or unemployment as rhode

island has one of the highest jobless rates in the country above 6%. the minutes from last month's fed minutes suggested a june rate hike was off the table. all eyes on janet yellen and what he says today. >> we have a little bit of commentary from the bank president that says stronger coordination of monetary policy between europe and the u.s. is not a goal in itself. it is known that i'm skeptical about qe but it would not be constructive to constantly comment about it and the end to unusually low levels of volatility in some markets can help sharpen markets minds. the recent volatility including higher bond yields market correction. so those are some of the commentaries the economic outlook is brighter than it has been for seven years. speaking at the ecb forum he added that monetary policy is work it's way through the

economy and growth is picking up. u.s. federal reserve vice chair stanley fisher told the same audience that he believed it was very likely the european monetary union would survive although the project still needs work what crises and extremely difficult decisions await the eu and emu. the decision to use a single currency to drive the european project forward was a risky one and at some stage or probably in several stages it will be necessary to put the missing fiscal frame work in place. >> let's get back out to the ecb forum. annetta. >> well, thank you very much carolyn. let me take you back to the comments from mario draghi. he was saying the economic outlook for the euro zone is the brightest in seven years but also saying that unemployment is frustratingly low and it's now

the time to act for the government to actually implemented structural reforms. monetary policy can only do so much to help the economy. the rest has to be done by policy makers and those arguing that implementing structural reform which is are harmful for the economy might actually also mean job losses very much counter productive right now. those people are wrong because it's never the right time to implemented these reforms and it should be done now as soon as possible to make use of the time and the good environment the euro zone is currently in. yesterday we caught up with larry summers and had to ask him about his take on inflation in the euro zone because of course

inflation and unemployment according to old style economic theory is playing hand in hand. but take a listen at what larry sommers had to say. >> okay. he was essentially saying that inflation here is very low. it's low here in the euro zone but also in the united states so it's a worldwide phenomenon and people here are looking into that. whether it's actually possible to boost inflation while monetary policy on a stand alone basis or whether other policies are needed. but also looking into the fiscal

space. that's what the economists are saying, that there's still fiscal space to be used here in the euro zone where as policy makers here are pretty much -- their hands are pretty much tied when it comes to implementing more money at least in the crisis regions and germany does not want to spend more money. they're looking into a balance budget. so essentially to sum that up here the talk of town is employment, how to get unemployment down how to get growth back at level which is we have seen before the crisis because what we call like the normal growth rate or organic growth rate for the economy is still farlower than we had it before the crisis. it's more to gather ideas among policy makers. and a beautiful setting. >> it is a beautiful setting.

enjoy the sun. thank you for that. meantime, greek leaders are optimistic of reaching a cash for reforms deal for creditors in the next ten days. however after meeting with the greek prime minister before an eu summit the german chancellor cautioned that there was still work to be done. >> i spoke last night with the french prime president and greek prime minister. it is also clear that there's a lot more work to be done with the three institutions. france and germany have always offered to answer questions and to give him what is possible but the final solution must be found with the institutions. >> joining us now is the chief ratings officer of sovereign ratings at standard and pores. seems as though there's a bit of a shift in tone from the germans. the finance minister saying he cannot rule out a default by

greece. do you think for greece it will be a take it or leave it situation? a deal similar to what we saw with cyprus? >> no i think, good morning first of all but i think that the situation is not comparable to cyprus. i think in cyprus this was a quickly assembled program quickly adopted by the government. here we have a very different situation. this has been going on for many months now and sometimes one is reminded of ground hog day, the movie, when the minute triistry in athens there's the appearance of red lines which continue to be pretty much the same ones. it's very often about labor market reform and pension reform and if we continue to get close to those lines again and then the agreement comes off the

table. when you refer to the various statements being made by the german government and remember the german government it's not between germany and greece. there's many more players that are porn there as well but if you stick to germany for the time being i think this has also been a pattern that we have seen over the last couple of months. the more hawkish statement comes out of the finance minister. the chancellor is more like the good cop in this game. it's very difficult to read from the outside. we do know that time is getting closer and closer and money is running out and we're not talking about a matter of months anymore when greece will be unable to pay all of it's bills. it's maybe not even a matter of weeks anymore. so something needs to move quickly. >> if we do see the imposition of capital controls how would that change your stance on the rating of greece essentially?

because last month you cut greece's rating to ccc plus from b minus saying greece's debt is unsustainable. >> if you have a rating in the ccc category what we're signaling is that the risk of default is pretty high and fairly imminent in the sense that it might be happening in a matter of months. so this is a very clear and powerful reflection of where we see the situation. there's continuous impasse and the point will come if there's no break through when the greek authorities will run out of liquidity and will no longer be able to serve all of their obligations and the real question is what will they cut? will they cut sort of on wages and pensions? will they pay the official predators or private creditors? we have a view. we think that the payment of

government debt is the superior claim but it remains to be seen. it's a political decision in the end but the rating is ccc plus as you say. the signals that default might be happening pretty soon but it's not a conclusion as we would almost say in the case of ukraine for example. we have an even lower rating. >> putting greece to ukraine to the side what are the economic challenges lie ago head that's stopping you from upgrading the euro zone? >> there's a number of those. i would just mention going forward in terms of potential growth rates there's a couple of head winds we will be seeing. one is clearly demographics. the u.s. estimates in the next 15 years the labor force in the euro zone will shrink by almost 7%. in the last a15 years it was increasing. we have long-term unemployment rising a lot. many of these individuals might never be coming back to the labor market but also the slice

of the pie that might not be employable is increasing. we also have very low levels of investment so before the crisis the differential between the investment over gdp ratio of the euro zone and the world was around 2 percentage points. the world invested 2% more of the gdp than the euro zone. this has now widened. the euro zone investment never recovered from the crisis. if you have the labor force shrinking in the long-term and letsz less investment that's not good for growth. this is usually the microeconomic reforms that it can only speak about. tax reform labor market reform competition, domestically enhancing education reform. we hold the belief that fiscal policy or monetary policy like

the ecb's qe will not be able to generate lasting growth. they can provide the window of opportunity for government to act on the microeconomic reforms but the real heavily lifting will have to come from them and not be done in frankfurt and brussels. >> it's a great point. structural reform is needed as well in order to really see a sustainable recovery here in europe. we're going to leave it there. hanukkah for joining us here on worldwide exchange. maurice kramer chief ratings officer at standard and poors. let's get you a run down on this trading day. april cpi out at 8:30 eastern. third straight months of gains due to higher gasoline prices. gamble soup deere, foot locker and ann report results before the opening bell. >> charter communications is in

talks with time warner cable on a takeover bid. charter bid about $132 a share last year before being beaten out by comcast. comcast, the parent of cnbc dropped it's $45 billion offer for time warner cable last month after u.s. regulators raised concerns about that deal. reports say french telecom firm altice met with them wednesday to express interest in a possible bid. charter off by 0.9. >> hewitt's first quarter revenue fell 7% slightly missing forecasts hurt by the strong dollar. hp will formally divide into two separate companies on november 1st. that will cost billions but hp says there will also be $1 billion in cost savings. hp shares rose 1% in after hours. up about three quarters of a percent in frankfurt. keep in mind meg whitman will

be on squawk on the street at 9:00 a.m. eastern. >> still coming up on the show stop relying on the fed. the ceo of us steel says why policy makers need a new plan for growth. that's coming up on worldwide exchange.

the global medals and mining

industry gathered here in london last night for the annual platts metals award. karen caught up with the winner of the ceo of the year award. u.s. steal's chief and asked about his outlook for the u.s. economy. >> it's a give and take it seems every day. you look at automotive for example, very strong. you look at housing, seems like it's beginning to recover. the industry is way down for the producers of goods for that environment but jobs have not gone up very much in the wages in general have not recovered very much and i think a significant reason for that is that we're not getting the proper policies that foster growth because growth is the element that resolve all the major issues today. >> investors are been looking at the signal for u.s. rates.

given the dynamics you have just mentioned when do you think it will be possible for the fed to raise rates. >> more and more as you see the depth soaring that's going to take a more significant role because we have been at this for so many years and you think that the fed itself can create the conditions for growth to occur anymore. we're going to have to get the proper policies in place that will foster growth and then we'll be able to see something improve. >> swoe rule out 2015 all together. >> i do. i don't think that -- you push it to september which is the latest gas the fed is going to move. it's pretty much over so i think anything is not very large. >> still to come on the show the most glamorous location the winding streets of mon

tremendous -- monte carlo. we'll be live for the grand prix. that's after this short break. jah argonne khe sanh midway dak to normandy medina ridge the chosin reservoir these are places history will never forget but more important are the faces we will always remember. ♪ ♪

all right. buckle your seat belts, formula one's premiere event the monaco grand prix. known for its tight twisting turns it will be a tough test for favorites lewis hamilton.

steve, our formula one analyst joins us live with a beautiful backdrop on what we can expect this weekend. steve. >> thanks guys and thank you very much for having us on today and as you can see behind us the backdrop is spectacular. it was the english novelist that said many years agatha monaco is a sunny place for shady people. you can see behind us now setting for the formula one this weekend. this village has turned into a formula one track and it's spectacular. up past the world famous casino the man that broke the bank at monte carlo down come the cars through the world famous tunnel and burst out and go around the harbor front. lap after lap after lap it's almost impossible to overtake but these guys are are going to have a dynamic dual on their

hands come sunday afternoon. as you were saying the favorite perhaps lewis hamilton who just signed a multimillion dollars contract and extension to stay with mercedes and the english driver is determined to make sure that he prevents his teammate, who has won this grand prix twice in succession from taking a third one here on sunday afternoon but you can never discount ferrari. they have come out with a good car this year. it's much better than previous years and they have a four time world champion. he's going to be trying to take the fight to mercedes. it looks like an absolute spectacular weekend. we had a little bit of rain yesterday in free practice too but we're expecting sunny skies over this beautiful city for the rest of the weekend. >> all right steve thank you so much. one of the most favorite and evocative races from formula one. appreciate you joining us. as we head to break, let's look

at u.s. futures. the dow with a higher open. up 7 points. s&p 500 slightly lower. nasdaq pointing to a higher move. up about four points. we're back with today's market action coming up after this break. more and more, data is visual. in fact, the number of mris has increased by ten percent a year. and a radiologist might view a thousand images to find one tiny abnormality in shape, contrast or movement. because it's so challenging a research project is teaching ibm watson to see. in the future, it could help clinicians spot key patterns quickly and precisely. ibm watson is working to make healthcare smarter every day.

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central bankers take center stage. the economic outlook for the euro area is brighter than it's been for several years. this as janet yellen prepares to speak later with markets tuning in for more timing on a rate hike. >> another day another mega deal in the works. charter is preparing a bid for time warner cable well above 170 dollars a share. >> the taxi app seeks a $1 billion credit line from banks. >> and sales take a hit from the strong dollar but quarterly earnings beat the street. this as hp says it's on schedule for november. >> and stocks in the u.s. hitting another record high for the tenth time this year. we did see a record close last

night. the question is what will we see today? a lot of focus will be on what the fed chair says. also that cpi number very important. remember the fed has a dual mandate. they need to see an improvement in the labor market as well as in inflation. the dow indicating a higher move by 8 points. the nasdaq up about 4 points in premarket trade. we should point out that yesterday apple shares gaining about 2% on the back of a very bullish note from morgan stanley. taking a look at european markets. the euro gaining ground. the xetra dax the export power house down by about 34 points. the cac 40 with a loss of 13 points. italy at 23,000 734 down about five points. when it comes to germany, keep in mind confidence is slipping in the month of may. slightly weaker than expected data plus a stronger euro

perhaps what's keeping european stocks lower in today's trade but it's not red across the full screen. the ftse 100 here up about 31 points above 7,000. a key psychological level that traders watch. the focus was on the retail sales number coming in higher than expectations here in the u.k. one of the reasons we saw stocks out perform and one of the reasons we're looking at the pound higher against a basket of currencies. >> seema, about 800 key decision makers are gathering for the world economic forum. king abdullah will formally open the summit where around $12 billion in deals are expected to be announced. but the king said he was optimistic that figure was a conservative estimate. >> i think you'll see a very strong turn out from private sectors across the worldcom economic forum to take advantage of investment opportunities. >> let's get back to hadley on

the shoersres of the deadsea in jordan. take it away. >> a thousand leaders from the region as well as world leaders gather here hoping to hear about deals on the horizon. i'm joined by the ceo of economic city. we have spoken before. tell me about what's happening in saudi arabia today. a lot of leadership changes. what's the momentum. >> he is a man of action. in his first 100 days he made over 90 decisions. you have to be accountable for your actions and they're making it smaller. >> there have been a lot of things happening in the last few days. obviously islamic state making gains in iraq and syria but here they're looking to make big deals. what's your take? >> well i think today his majesty's speech was very

powerful. he talked about growth despite the volatility. you can see the kingdom of jordan taking matters in their own hands. making deals and pushing forward development in the country despite the volatility around it and i think we should and the biggest area for the region is intratrade. we're the second worst region in the world. we don't trade with each other very well. >> what's behind that? >> well it's partially that trade is ultimately a competitive business. you want to trade with whoever is best in terms of efficiency and complimentary goods but i think there's much needed cooperation both at the government to government level but also private to private level. for us we want to work with the kingdom of jordan specifically.

>> is this at a policy level? >> no it's about working to make sure that the trade routes between them that it becomes a trading hub for the region and then can become the trading help for the north. >> and one more question in terms of the chaos that we have seen in the region it's not really impacting the deal king abdullah is hoping gets signed over for the weekend. what's your biggest takeaway? >> they've have the challenges over the past century. every decade there's a new challenge and i think that we have sort of gotten used to being able to work through these challenges overtime. so ultimately business finds it's way, finds a place where you can -- if you trust the region and the future you'll make deals. >> thank you for joining cnbc. guys back to you. >> hadley gamble thank you so much. let's take a look at oil prices.

one step forward and two steps back for oil prices. yesterday gaining about 3% but today we're trading lower. brent crude, the international gauge for oil at 6602 down about .3%. wti crude at $60.37. now holding on to 60 that's a key support level for wti. perhaps that in itself is a bullish signal for those that track technicals. wti crude down about .5%. >> did you know that wti is on track for the tenth week of gains. that's the longest streak since 1983. that's when records began. >> what does it mean for the economy and for that deflation nary effect. that has been the big story here in europe. >> at $60 barrel i wouldn't think it would have a huge impact on inflation. that's break even on inflation isn't it? if we go back to $100 barrel that will make a little bit of change. $60 barrel i can't see that having a big impact. >> you could. a lot of that story will be on

what happens with the dollar if it continues to resume it's upward trend. that of course has been calling into question given the mixed economic data we have been getting out in the u.s. >> meantime let's look at today's other top stories. uber is seeking a $1 million credit line for banks. a possible move toward an ipo. the wall street journal says the ride sharing company has recently contacted several large banks asking how much they would be willing to commit to the loan. about 6 to 7 are expected to be part of that facility but the journal says an ipo isn't expected until next year. >> blackberry plans to buy back 12 million shares. it's the first buy back in the past year. separately the company says john chen's pay fell to $3.4 million last year. down from $85 million the previous year. that's largely because he did not benefit from a grant of restrictive shares received in 2013. >> the federal trade commission

is reportedly close to giving aen antitrust approval to lorillard. they were to create a strong number two cigarette maker with 40% of the u.s. market. coming up take over talks may be heating up between charter communications and time warner cable. details on the possible bid price coming up next.

welcome back. we've been seeing a lot more mna. let's get out to landon. >> charter communications is in talks with time warner cable about a possible takeover bid. an offer is likely to be above the $170 a share expected by analysts. charter had bid about $132 a share or 37.3 billion last year before being beaten out by comcast but comcast dropped it's $45 billion offer last month after u.s. regulators raised concerns. the french telecom firm altice created a potential bidding war with charter. they also say altice and

executives met on wednesday. checking shares of charter and time warner cable in europe both are trading lower today. reports say the fcc chairman reached out to the ceos of time warner cable and charter to convey they aren't against any or all table deals. wheeler told them any merger would be assessed on its own merits. the calls were in response recently expressing concern about the regulatory climate. wheeler seized those statements as a significant overreading of the fcc stance on the comcast time warner cable deal. guys back over to you. >> landon thank you so much. now from telecom to retail gap's first quarter profit fell 8% hurt by the strong dollar. shipping delays related to the west coast sport shutdown and slow down and lower demand from its name sake brand. second quarter results will be hit by late shipments and expects to have to offer diskounlts on delayed merchandise. >> hewitt packards first

forecast hurt by the strong dollar. hp will formally divide into two separate companies on november 1st. that split will cost billions but hp says they'll also be $1 billion in cost savings. hp rose 1% in after hours trade and meg whitman will be on squawk on the street in a first on cnbc interview coming up at 9:00 a.m. eastern. so the cost issue, that was, you know, a really big concern going into the split and now that we have a little bit more detail well the cost will actually be some what lower. >> long-term. >> long-term they'll be lower. another really positive aspect to what we heard yesterday is hp is exiting some of its china business. selling a 51% stake in the china business for $2.3 billion. some people said it's a really smart move because they're still in china but doing it with a partner. with the university there.

so they're getting the best of both worlds in a way. >> getting their foot in the door if you will. but i was speaking to one analyst last night that said tracking monitoring hp going forward is very complicated. splitting into two companies. hp focused on pc's and printers and enterprise focussing on hardware and software and you look at the stock it's down about 16% year to date. a big underperformer when you have the s&p tech sector up about 5% year to date but this is where they see value. reorganizing the company. new tie ups and what that can mean for hp going forward. >> yeah. maybe with more clarity on costs maybe the trend will turn around. but do watch that interview with meg later on today. those of you planning to hit the road for the holiday weekend in the u.s. might want to head out a little early. aaa is estimating 37 million travellers will be making their way across the united states this weekend. that's the most on any memorial

day since 2005. 33 of those 37 million people will be driving. aaa says the low cost of gas is encouraging more people to behind the wheel. the rebound in oil prices means gas prices have been coming up as well. >> that's true. be careful on the streets out there over the long weekend. meantime, these are the headlines. investors await a speech from janet yellen as markets look for direction before the long holiday weekend. uber fuels ipo speculation and charter is nearing a fresh bid for time warner according to reports. we'll be back in two.

welcome back. we have comments coming from the

german finance minister. in our view the imf's participation in the greek debt talks is required urgently. a quick check of european markets. we are a little bit mixed today. apart from the ftse 100 in the u.k. which is being propped up by vodafone, we are lower. xetra dax off by 0.4% and cac 40 off by similar percentage. we have a long holiday coming up in europe as well so no one really wants to take on too much risk ahead of that holiday. >> up the euro down go the exporters. that seems to be the inverse relationship. big story this year. let's look at u.s. futures and what we can expect after the record close on the s&p 500 yesterday. the s&p down just fractionally in premarket. dow indicating a higher open by 5. nasdaq up 2. let's get you a run down of what to watch this trading day. april cpi is out at 8:30 a.m. eastern. consumer prices likely rose for

the third straight months of gain deuce to higher gasoline prices. campbell soup deere, foot locker and ann report results before the opening bell. joining us now is todd author and founder of bubba trading.com joining us from chicago. todd great to have you this morning. the dilemma confronting policy makers is whether the u.s. economy is strong enough to endure a rate hike. what are your thoughts? >> good morning, seema, good morning carolyn. the bottom line is we're not strong enough. there's not going to be a rate hike. we have seen the bonds, the fixed income markets try to make a move here over the last couple of weeks. forcing up yield and forcing down bond futures but we're not data driven. we're bad data driven because the markets are still waiting for every bit of bad news to continue the rally we're seeing. the rally itself we're making new highs almost every day but we're running out of steam as far as the velocity in which

we're exploding through the new highs. we have no volatility in the markets right now. the markets are waiting for a reason to make a much bigger move. could be higher could be lower but we have been in this very tight consolidation range over the last six months working through the upper end of the range and then the lower end of the range but the fed itself they're not data driven. they're painted into a corner that they don't know what to do no matter what the data comes up. >> isn't it fed policy ultimately driving stocks higher? we're in record high territory and a lot of that has to do with june now being off the table. >> exactly. that's what i'm saying. so the fed itself we've had many opportunities over the last four years from the taper tantrum of where we should be raised rates and could have raised rates but because the fed itself is so concerned about the day trading of the equity markets that they're afraid to o do anything and right now there is no reason to believe that they will do anything else. we can take a look at the

worldwide economies, they're all trying to race themselves and their currencies down to the bottom. so the problem remains the same we don't have real good jobs. you might have good jobs numbers but you don't have good jobs. you have terrible retail sales. you don't have enough good economic data to support anything right in here because all we built here is a house of cards and a paper tiger is a paper rally because of the building on and the ability to buy back stock and mergers and acquisition. it has not been built on real growth. >> just want to take a shorter term view. let's talk about today. as you pointed out volumes have really fallen off a cliff. so, you know depending on the reaction that we see on the back of yellen talking on the back of the cpi numbers. to what extent do you want to gattis count the discount the moves? >> we might get a knee jerk reaction off of the numbers. i expect it to be extremely quite today which could lead to

a bigger move one way or the other. they're in the hamptons as we have been for weeks. so i expect it very quite after noon eastern time it will be zero which means the market could move a little bit farther one way or the other because it's going to be nothing in the way. we might see a knee jerk reaction either way the next really big move will be the down side but we could continue to dribble up here on a daily basis, very small, three points five points but at the end, i expect the nasdaq to make a new high and i would think we would start to see pretty good selling. >> but outside the u.s. financial reform is playing out here in europe as well as in emerging markets. it's particularly revasive in china. the shanghai composite in today's session. is it too late to ride the china bull run? >> it's way too late to ride the china bull run. up 92% since the beginning of the year. where are you going to go?

the whole problem comes here is we started with that chase for yield and now we have got record margin debts in the united states. are we now seeing the switch from the chase to yield and now the chase for green. that's one of the key components we have to look for in the overall markets is had we switched over from really just chasing the yield to also now getting greed because when you start getting people borrowing to invest that's a much bigger problem and could create a much bigger problem down the road. >> stay with us if you will. just for a second. this weekend is one of the busiest of the year in the world of sports. nhl and nba playoffs rage on in the state. the french open kicks off in paris and two of the premiere races in motor sports the monaco grand prix and indy 500. which will be be watching this weekend? >> the hockey. that's the -- right now there's nothing better than playoff hockey. because like trading. you have to be able to play good

defense to win. >> go rangers. >> go rangers. is that them? i don't know. we're watching the grand prix over here in monaco. carolyn is a huge tennis man? you have your money between federer or nadal? >> no djokovic. >> pleasure to have you on. thank you for joining us nice and early. have a great day. we want to hear from you on this. if you could attend any sporting event this weekend, which one would it be? we are active on social media. a quick look at u.s. futures on this friday morning, what can you expect on wall street after that record close for the s&p 500? keep in mind best performing sector so far this year. health care up about 9.5%. a big proponent of that is bio tech up about 19% year to date despite the ups and downs that we have been seeing in that sector. dow up about 7 points. nasdaq seeing a gain of 3 points. >> let's have a quick peek at what the european markets are

doing. vodfone leading the charge once again since wednesday. the stock is up 11% on mna speculation. potential tie up from liberty global. off by 0.4%. we're seeing the euro dollar moving higher on the back of the business climate index. the headline number that was better than expected. some of the other top components were patchy but the euro dollar over the course of this week it has found some 2.5% against the u.s. dollar. 11186 is the print that we're currently seeing. we're going to close out this week. have a fantastic long holiday. that's it for today's show. >> thank you for joining us. we will see you on monday but stay right there, squawk box is next.

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the ride sharing company wants to open a credit line with banks which could signal they're getting closer to an ipo. the bird flu outbreak is getting worse. 39 million birds dead. 10% of the country's egg laying flock is gone. one of the big stories on the front page of the journal, egg

prices. companies are spending millions to contain the damage and the prices at grocery stores are headed higher. it is friday may 22nd 2015 and squawk box begins right now. ♪ >> live from new york from business never sleeps this is squawk box. >> good morning and becomewelcome to squawk box. it is memorial day weekend. that's the unofficial start to the summer. that traditionally means lots of travel but aaa is predicting 33 million people will be driving this weekend. that's a ten year high. >> i already got stuck in traffic this morning. it's already here. airlines are expecting the busiest summer ever. but one more trading session left before the long weekend begins. u.s. equity