concern about corporate earnings growth. that's keeping a lit on it. the macro tends to be more prominent than is otherwise the case. >> you have a great holiday weekend. best memorial day weekend. thanks so much for watching our program. janet yellin about to deliver remarks and steve liesman has it now. >> thanks very much scott. janet yellin speaking in providence rhode island and believes rate hikes will be appropriate this year at some point if the economy improves as she expects. the pace of hikes when the federal reserve begins should be gradual. it will take several years she said for the fed funds rate to trourn normal or long run level. on the current economy, yellin said the first quarter slow down is largely transitoryy and expects the economic data to strengthen. that's important because it said the preconditions will be laid

for that rate hike. she sees moderate growth this year and beyond. the economic head winds out there that include housing and budget spending have been waning. on the labor markets, it's approaching full strength. first time i believe they said that with the unemployment rate to fall by year end. it is close to the long run level although she does point out that it will be not fully healed along with a slack such as people working part-time. she said inflation will rise as the economy strengthened and importantly as temporary factors were received which is what she expects in the forecast. a couple of things she said the european recovery is on firmer footing, but has concerns about

global on the u.s. economy. an important economic point that we can talk more about another time but said recent productivity is disappointing and that's something they watch at the federal reserve. back to you. >> thank you very much. along with mandy drury, welcome to power lunch. more breaking news with david. david? >> thanks very much tyler. a great deal of noise with sales first.com given reports about potential talks involving the company or non-talks. we wanted to come back to people and given the sense as to what toopz. microsoft and sales force.com did have talks earlier this spring about a purchase of sales force by microsoft according to a number of people familiar with the situation. while the two did fail to reach a deal and have not reengaged, the talks advanced to a level of detail that indicates they were serious. they remain far apart on price. my sources told me microsoft was

said to be willing to offer $55 billion while the founter said to have kept raising expectations and may have gotten as high as $70 billion. $55 billion still would have represented the largest deal of all time. they represent $95 billion in cash, but some discussion of allowing them to roll his 5.7% stake into microsoft stock. that would have been a part of the deal. they would have had a management role at least under the terms that were negotiated according to people close to the talks. they were involved in take over rumors when bloomberg reported on an approach of an unnamed suitor that was not microsoft. they reported on may 5th that

they said that no talks were taking place. # in addition the disparity and price, there was a sense this the ceo who has been on the job only for about 18 months might be reluctant to pull the trigger on such size and consequence for his company. a number of people posted it and believe they had momentum and think they might have been able to reach a deal until price became a defining roadblock as it can be in deal talks of this nature. sales force that has a leading position is thought to be a good fit which is focused on gaining

scale. a bit more clarity on a lot of different reporting that took place. right back up to the levels it inhabited when many of these were first emerging. back to you. >> thank you very much for shedding light on all of that. let's go down to the floor of the stock exchange and join bob pisani to see how they are commenting. bob? >> and not a lot of movement. take a look at the s&p. etf and spider here. we improved a point and a half here and i think the reason we are not seeing a big reaction is this is pretty much what was expected. the focus seems to be on improving employment picture. a little bit of slightly hawkish comment with the labor market and full strength as steve mentioned and economic head winds. she coupled them with dovish comments and the fed would take several years for the funds to

return to normal. and the pace of hikes will be gradual again. her words. take a look at interest rate sensitive sectors like banks. the bank etf with not a lot of movement. the treasury etfs that i watched and the short-term and the long-term ones. the shy or the tlh and any of those out there. again, with those, not much movement overall. a muted market move. a slight move to the downside in the tlh. a slight move up in yields and a shorter term out there. the to three-year and shy is essentially no movement there. i think given the situation, the focus on the employment picture.

back to you. >> let's bring steve liesman back into the conversation here. we wait for yellin to begin her speech at the greater chamber of commerce. she is on the stage. what's holding her back from raising rates sooner. >> a clarity that the economy is improving. >> let's listen to janet yellin. >> let me say how grateful i am to the chamber for inviting me today. honored by the presence of so many distinguished guests. i am really pleased to be with you and it's good to be back in providence. as peter noted, i attended brown and the city i see today is very different from the one i remember from my time here in the 1960s. many of those differences reflect dramatic and at times wrenching economic changes in rhode island over those years.

especially since the financial crisis and the great recession. as ever, providence faced these challenges and i'm impressed by the revival and renewal evidence downtown. that brings visitors and commerce here. i would like to speak with you about the outlook for the u.s. economy. i should note at the out set my remarks reflect my own views and not necessarily those in the federal reserve system. as you all know the economy is still recovering from the great recession. the worst downturn since the terrible episode of the 1930s that inspired its name. the recession began more than seven years ago, the result of the collapse in the housing market and the financial crisis that it sparked. rhode islanders are well aware

of the great toll taken by the recession. the unemployment rate hit 10% nationally and reached 11.3% here in rhode island. nationally payroll shrank by 8.5 million. about 6%. 41,000 jobs lost in rhode island represented 8% of the state's employment. u.s. economic output fell 4% nationally, the most since the great depression. many of the hardest hit industries including housing construction and manufacturing are important to the rhode island economy. the federal reserve took action to help stabilize the financial system during the crisis. we supported the economic recovery with monetary policy actions designed to hold down longer term interest rates. with this help the economy made

significant strides. the pace of job gains is gradually strengthening and payroll expanded by more than $3 million in 2014 alone. the unemployment rate came down to 5.4% in april. one sign of a stronger labor market is the number of job openings that has risen impressively. another is that more workers are quitting their jobs signalling greater confidence in their ability to find a new job. rhode island is sharing in this recovery, but i'm well aware that economic conditions remain difficult here. rhode island's unemployment rate improved slowly in the recovery and for a time it was the highest of any state. the jobless rate has come down a lot over the past year or so but unemployment here remains above the national average.

payroll employment is yet to regain the prerecession peak. in recent months some economic data suggested the pace of improvement in the economy may have slowed. a topic i will address in a moment. even with the significant gains of the past couple of years, it's only now, six years after the recession ended, that the labor market is approaching its full strength. i say approaching because in my judgment we are not there yet. the unemployment rate came down close to levels that many economists believe is sustainable in the long run without generating inflation. but the unemployment rate today probably does not fully capture the extent of slack in the labor market. to be classified as unemployed, people must report they are actively seeking work. many people without jobs say

they are not doing so. that is, they are classified as being out of the labor force. most people out of the labor force are there voluntarily, including retirees teenager, young adults in school and people staying home to care for children. i also believe that sisignificant number are not seeking work because they still perceive the lack of good job opportunities. in addition those too discouraged to seek work a large number of people report they are working part-time because they cannot find full time jobs. i suspect that much of this represents labor market slack that could be absorbed in a stronger economy. finally the generally disappointing pace of wage growth suggest that is the labor market is not fully healed. higher wages raise costs for

employers, but they also boost the spending and confidence of consumers and would signal a strengthening of the recovery that will ultimately be good for business. in the aggregate, the main measures of hourly compensation rose at a rate of only around 2% through most of the recovery. and in rhode island average hourly earnings have not risen at all in the past year. nationally there at least encouraging signs of a pick up so far this year. the fact that some large companies such as wal-mart and target have announced wage increases for their employees also might be a sign that larger wage gains are on the horizon. this improvement in the labor market has brought the economy closer to one of the two goals of monetary policy assigned to the fed by the congress.

maximum employment. progress has been made towards the other goal price stability. consumer price inflation remains below the fed's stated objective of 2%. the notion that inflation can be too low may sound odd. but overtime low inflation means that wages as well as prices will rise by less and very low inflation can impair the functioning of the economy. for example, by making it more difficult for households and firms to pay off their debts. overall, consumer price inflation has been especially low, close to zero over the past year as the big fall in oil prices since last summer lowered prices for gasoline, heating oil and other energy products. inflation excluding food and energy which is often a better

indicator of where overall inflation will be in the future has also been low. below the fed's 2% objective both now and for almost all of the economic recovery. inflation has been held down by the continued economic weakness during this slow recovery and more recently by lower prices of imported goods as well as the fall in oil prices. with oil prices no longer declining and with the public's expectations of future inflation apparently stable my colleagues on the federal open market and i believe that the consumer price inflation will move up to 2% as the economy strengthens further and other temporary factors weighing on inflation. a number of economic head winds have slowed the recovery and to some extent they continue to influence the outlook.

these head winds include first the fact that the housing crash left many households with less wealth and higher debt weighing on consumer spending. many homeowners lost their homes and many more ended up under water, owing more on mortgages than their homes are worth. economists noted that areas of the country saw a larger boom and bust in housing have subsequently fared worse economically than other areas of the country. rhode island is one such place. the housing bust was not as large as in florida, nevada and parts of california it was larger than average and the largest in new england. this factor likely has contributed to the fact that the overall recovery here in rhode island has lagged. in some respects this head wind

diminished. home prices have moved up appreciably alleviating the burden for many homeowners. though the improvement is including rhode island lagged nationally the share of mortgages that are under water fell by about half between 2011 and 2014. in credit availability for mortgages has improved as well ago mortgages are still hard to obtain for would be homeowners without pristine credit records. i would score this head wind as still a concern, but one likely continue to fade. a second head wind also quite important here in rhode island has come from changes in fiscal policy to reduce budget deficits. at the federal level, the fiscal stimulus of 2008 and 2009

supported economic output. the effective stimulus fell by 2o 11 and fiscal policy actions became a drag on output growth when the recovery was still weak. states and municipalities faced with serious problems due to the recession and required by law to balance budgets were forced to cut spending and raise taxes. the rhode island i know was among the areas still facing budget strand. overall, fiscal policy actions at both the federal and the state and local levels electric like they are no longer a significant drag on economic

growth. this head wind i hope is mostly behind us. it and i won't say as much about this factor b, but i will make a few observations. the euro area crisis was the biggest head winds coming from the rest of the world. supported by monetary stimulus reduced fiscal drag and significant institutional reforms, the recovery and the euro area appears to be on a firmer footing. however growth in 19 other parts of the global economy including china and some other emerging market economies has slowed. weak growth abroad with the accompanying implications for exchange rates has dented u.s.

exports and weighed on our economy. this head wind should abate as growth in the global economy firms, support by monetary policies generally remain highly accommodative. with the weaning of the head winds i discussed, the economy seems well positioned for continued growth. households are seeing the benefits of the improving job situation and consumer confidence has been solid. in addition the drop in oil prices amounts to a sizable boost in household purchasing power. the annual savings in gasoline has been estimated at about $700 per household on average. in savings on heating costs, essentially here in the northeast where it was so cold this winter are also large.

given the energy savings on top of the job gains, real disposable income has risen almost 4% nationally over the past four quarters. households and businesses are benefiting from favorable financial conditions. borrowing costs are low, supported by the fed's accommodative monetary policies and credit availability to both households and small businesses has improved. in recent months as i noted earlier, there has been some softness in the economic data. recent indicators of spending and business investment have slow and industrial output has declined. the commerce department's initial estimate is that the real gross domestic product was nearly flat in the first quarter of 2015. if confirmed by further

estimates, my guess is that this apparent slow down was largely the result of a variety of transitoriy factors that occurred at the same time. including the unusually cold and snowy winter and the labor disputes on the west coast, both of which likely disrupted economic activity. some of this apparent weakness may be due to statistical noise. i therefore expect the economic data to strengthen. all of that said they have not fully abated and as such i expect the continued growth. despite the recovery i noted in home prices and a greater number of home sales, residential construction activity remains quite low.

i mentioned the ongoing issue with mortgage credit. more generally many years of a weak job market and slow wage gains seemed to have induced many people to double up on housing. many young adults continue to look with their parents. population growth is creating a need for more houzing. whether to rent or. they had a continuing job in wage gains will encourage the pace of business investment has been only modest in this recovery. some of the reasons might persist a while longer.

more analysts suggested that uncertainty not only about the strength of the recovery but also about economic policy could be a significant factor. the fact that many businesses seem to be holding large amount of cash may suggest that risk aversion is playing a role. weak investment in the energy sector is likely to persist. this represents the negative side to the fallen oil prices and it's being felt by the oil producing regions of the country. new domestic oil drilling has plunged over the past few months. we have also seen a slow down in activity in sectors that supply oil production including steel and certain machinery. i would add and we are still a

net importer of oil. putting it all together, the economic projections of most members of the fomc called for growth in real gross domestic products products. a little faster than the pace of recovery thus far. with the unemployment rate continuing to move down to near 5% by the end of this year. for inflation as i noted earlier, my colleagues and i expect inflation to move up to the objective of 2% as the economy strengthens further and is transitory. of course the outlook for the economy as always is highly uncertain. i'm describing the outlook that i see as most likely.

based on many years of making economic projections, i can assure you that any specific projection i write down will turn out to be wrong. perhaps markedly so. job growth could prove to be stronger and inflation higher than i expect and employment could grow more slowly and inflation could remain undesirably low. given this outlook and the uncertainty, how is monetary policy likely to evolve over the next few years. because of this substantial lag in the effect of monetary policy on the economy, we must make policy in a murder looking manner.

until employment and inflation are already back to our objectives would risk overheating. if the economy continues to improve as i expect it will be important to take the step to raise the federal funds rate target and begin the process of normalizing monetary policy. to support taking this step though i will need to see continued improvement in labor market conditions and i will need to be reasonably confident that inflation will move back to 2% over the median term. after we begin raising the federal funds rate, i anticipate that the pace of normalization and likely to be gradual. the various head winds that are restraining the economy as i said will likely take time to

fully abate. and the pace is highly uncertain. if conditions develop as my colleagues and i expect then the fomc's objectives of maximum employment and price stability would best be achieved by proceeding cautiously. i expect that would mean that it will be several years before they will be back to normal longer run level. having said that i should stress that the actual course of policy will be determined by incoming data and what that reveals about the economy. they are marking on a preset course after the initial increase. just monetary policy in response to developments in economic activity and inflation as they

occur. the conditions improve more rapidly than expected and it may be appropriate to raise interest rates more quickly. conversely the pace of normalization may be slower if conditions turn out to be less favorable. before i conclude let me put this discussion into a longer term context. the federal reserves objectives of maximum employment and price stability do not by themselves ensure a strong pace of economic growth or an improvement in living standards. the most important factor determining living standards is productivity growth. defined as increases in how much can be produced in an hour of work. overtime sustained increases in productivity are necessary to support rising incomes. here are the recent data that have been disappointing. the growth rate of output per

hour worked averaged about 1.25% a year since the recession again in late 2007. this is down from gains averaging 2 ..2.75%. i mentioned wage gains and while i do take this as evidence as slack in the labor market it may also be a reflection of relatively weak productivity growth. productivity depends on many factors including the workforce's knowledge and skills. and the quantity and quality of capital technology and infrastructure that they have to work with. economists debate how they have to be about the prospects. some argue that the decade starting in the mid-1990s was exceptional with unusually large

advances and the more recent president provides a better guide to the future. others are more optimistic and suggesting that recent innovation remains as impressive as ever and the history shows it may take years to fully reach economic benefits of such innovations. i don't know who was right, but i do believe that as a nation we should be pursuing policies to support longer run growth and productivity. policies to strengthen education, to encourage entrepreneurship and innovation and promote capital investment both public and private can all be of great benefit. it's also possible that a portion of the relatively weak productivity growth may be the result of the recession itself. firms slash capital expenditures

during the recession and as i noted earlier, the increases in investment during the recovery have been modest. in particular, investment in research and development has been relatively weak of financing may have impaired the ability of people to start new businesses and implement new ideas in technologies. as the economy strengthens further. any of these processes could work in reverse, boosting productivity prospects. to the extent this is so federal reserve actions to strengthen the recovery may not only help bring our economy back to its productive potential, but it may also support the growth of productivity in living standards over the longer run. well let me stop there and again thank you to the chamber for inviting me to providence and for the opportunity to speak

to you this afternoon. thank you. >> all right. that was janet yellen wrapping up here speech in providence. steve liesman, give us the three takeaways here. >> thank you very much. >> one of them is that they are continuing on this idea that the weakness is transitory. they are on a track to raise rates at some point this year. she really upgraded her view of the job market i think a little bit and is pretty neutral about inflation and did not incorporate the new inflation data we had. >> it was interesting how she steered away from the stocks afterwards and it was quite a twitter around the markets when she said that stock prices are quite high and people were weighing in saying why is she commenting on the stock market anyway? >> she didn't this time around.

>> she learned her lesson. >> i'm not sure that is true. when they made that remark it was a measured comment and something she meant to say. i don't think she could care less who liked it. >> what is holding the fed back from raising interest rates sooner. she said i thought i heard two things. number two, the labor market. it's good and close to what she describes. >> they use the word full employment. it would seem to me that what would be holding her back is the under trend performance in innovation. >> that's all it is. >> if it takes two birds in the hands to raise rates, that's one.

today's inflation numbers that kept the core rate around 1.8% is part of the way there. it's not all the way there. it will eventually rise. if you look at the chart of core inflation versus headline inflation, it remained kpabl. it's not falling and they want to see it rising. >> let's look at how the markets are reacting. we saw a mildly positive reaction and it turned positive and they held and extended gapes and sitting at 5100. that is the all time high and closing above that. a little way to go before it gets to the interday close. we will bring you a quick day. do not go.

ideas come into this world ugly and messy. they are the natural born enemy of the way things are. yes, ideas are scary and messy and fragile. but under the proper care, they become something beautiful.

>> the north american rig counts total dropped three rigs to 835. the number that everyone wants is the oil rig count falling and 259 now. oil rigs in the u.s. fell by one. 659 total. again, you have one of the smallest moves they have a stronger dollar. let's see how they are reacting on the back of the speech on the economy. the dow and the s&p are both in the red. the s&p was in positive territory. it has fallen back below the line. let's look at what's happening

in the bond market and the two-year 10-year, 30-year. yielding 2.214%. bob pisani joins us from the floor. we have been using from the qualified, not a huge reaction. >> the bottom line is yellen pretty much stuck to the script with a few small exceptions to talk about federal raised rates and the economy improves as expected. they moved up about 2 points. we look at the kre, the bank etf. the pace will be gradual. the q1 slow down. we heard that before. it was interesting though it touque about the highly uncertain outlook. i thought that was interesting taking several years for the fed rates to return to normal. there is the volatility. you see what happens as she came out at 1:00. we moved below 12.

right now that is a new low for the year for the volatility index. that is the best indication that people were not and the productivity increases and her comment that investment in research and development might be the reason we have seen a drop. that's a feasible expectation. the fed has been worried about it. she voted a substantial part of the speech to that issue. back to you. >> i will pick it up and she certainly did spend time there saying that the underpinning of rising incomes and. >> what is dollar is doing in response. sarah. >> the dollar is stronger. she gave her remarks and it was

stronger all day. because they gave an upbeat take on the u.s. economy, the dollar got a little bit of a lift higher. notably she repeated that temporary factors like weather and the shut down hurt the economy in the and that affects the data from here to strengthen. traders noted she was optimistic on the labor market and mentioned pick up in wages. if you have a picture of a reserve closer to higher rates, you guys have been saying. in an economy that is doing better and data that justifies it. that is bullish for the dollar. earlier in the day, the dollar surged after the inflation data and suggested a pick up in prices. that along with better data, notably housing starts and the leading economic indicators. the dollar heading for the first up week in a strong. a strong week for the dollar and

the reason why strategists say the dollar should regain the fooding here. the economy is finally showing signs of healing from earlier in the year. it may not be a straight lineup with data likely to hurt the dollar, but as long as the reserve and economy stays positive as you heard, that should help the dollar and it is why most of the well-known strat jives are sticking with their bullish view. >> thank you very much sarah eisen. stocks off the lows of the day after janet yellin is on track to raise interest rates if the economy continues to improve. the chief investment adviser, i know that you weren't entirely convinced that the fed is going to raise ratesa at all this year. is there anything ms. yellen said to change your mind? >> no, employment conditions are improving and not where they should be.

if you look at the broad away of employment numbers they are not where they should be. she mentioned wages. the second thing is on the inflation side of things, particularly looking at today's numbers. inflation is inproving, but that's not where it should be. what the federal reserve will do is data-depentent. are we going to get to continues and inflation conditions that really would justify a move towards restraint or increase in the funds by year end? i would say you know, that's really uncertain. i'm not sure we will get this. we might be 2016. >> the jury is out on that. what about you? was there anything that you latched on to that might give you rethinking? >> she talked about a slow rise. we don't have a quick increase.

it's very good. inflation is picking up. >> the topic that was brought up may 6th or so. i know you think the stock market is overvalued but valuations alone cannot help us win a bull market. what else would you be looking at to give you an yad of maybe whether this run is done for the time being? >> you look first of all at the performance of the marks themselves. if you look at the performance of the marks, you see the sector performance is a bullish sector and capitalization and small and mid-cap stocks. large stocks and you look at important monetary and economic variables. like the index of indicators

that is increased in all but one of the last 12 months. you put the two and ask yourself the question, does that information tell you we will have the end of the cycle, the start of the bear market accompanied by a recession? the answer is resoundingly no. yes, valuation is a problem, but it's not going to be the end of the cycle. >> what are about you? you prefer the mid-to small end of the market and the mid-cap is up about 6% this year. they have outperformed the s&p. >> i agree with you. i don't think we are close to any kind of a bear market territory and you are looking at growth as outperforming value. you are at the end of the cycle and things look like they will be fine. i am surprised stocks are up as much as they are given how poor the first quarter was and consumer spending levels have been fairly constrained. i think going into the latter part of the year, it may pick back up and as long as the

dollar does not gain too much strength, it doesn't hold up. i like that and international clearly is the hot spot right now. >> indeed it is. thank you very much for your thoughts there. you can go to power lunch to see why hugh and darren are looking for opportunities overaccess. powerlunch.cnbc.com. >> the memorial day weekend kicking off the unofficial start of summer. one sector is up 80% in the summer months over the last ten years and we'll tell you which one it is as we head out, three of the biggest winners so far this year. netflix up more than 80% and sky works solutions and new mining both up 45%. power lunch back in two minutes.

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>> gold prices at 1202 down by 1.30. one of the biggest weekly declines as the dollar rebounded quite strong on the rise in core

consumer prices in april. silver and copper are up but palladium down by 1%. >> i guess in order to understand all the wild things that happened we have to start at the first thing that happened chronologically 8:30 eastern. we saw that yes, we had a hotter core at 3/10. the most aggressive month over month since august of 2011. did janet yellen start her steven at 1:30 eastern. 4 1/2 hours before here speech 270 minutes later, in her speech she said this. she is talking about keeping everybody up. investors up and developments in economic activity and inflation as they occur. now, i understand you prewrite speeches, but data dependent and

one of the major issues has been lack of inflation. whether they point to sustainable or not, it could have been the dimension. it costs 75 cents. it's yesterday's. i think that this is a big issue. if microsoft or mr. zuckerberg or facebook had important information, remember the fed does have this 4.48 trillion balance sheet. the breaking news to the business and 270 minutes later talked about that business without mentioning it i find that craze personally. as for the volatility in the market traders wanted to get out of here. they were looking to be fired. at 1:00 eastern and closes at 2:00 eastern. you can see the volatility. maybe the most important was in the s&p themselves.

that didn't go anyplace, but let's see what it looks like on tuesday. back to you. >> enjoy your long weekend. thank you very much for the run down there. let's do the power points and number one fed chair speaking and saying a rate hike will be appropriate if the economy improves. the pace of rate hikes will be gradual. the number of u.s. oil rigs going off line in this low oil environment slowing down. only one rig went off line to 659. we were at 869 one year ago. david reporting that microsoft and sales force.com had significant talks earlier this spring about a purchase of sales force by microsoft according to a number of people familiar with the situation. the two failed to reach a deal and have not reengaged. if you missed any of the stories or any big stories in the past hour visit powerlunch.cnbc.com. >> in the yahoo finance question, they were up 0.1% last

month. should the fed delay interest rates. 40% say yes. 33% said no. 27% said i don't know. rates can't stay low forever. there is one sector that has been up 80% of the time four out of five times in the summer months over the last ten years. we have the summer sizzlers. >> barbecues and beach chairs and talk about the stocks that really do well. after the break, we will take you through the sectors that do perform better in the summer and one notable that skips the action. that and more. keep it here. blap # financial noise financial noise

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>> okay who said summer has to be a slow and boring trading period? a number of sectors moved big during that time. in fact in the summer months over the last decade finally the summer. it's up about a percent to the upside over the past years. it's more indicative of what we were in right now. woe asked our data partners to look at the numbers and look at the sectors through the etf. the hottest sector in the summer months, memorial day to labor day on average is the health care sector. that makes sense because health care was the hottest last year. it's the hottest so far this

year. it's up on average about 3%. 2.75% over the last ten years and up 80% of the time. the second best performing is technology. they are up about 3%. better than health care but if you look at the hit rate it's worse. only up about 60% of the time. i want to call your attention to one. the hot ones. i want to balance the story by saying what are thes that don't perform as well. it is the retail side of things. if you look at xly, it's about down about a half percent on average over the last years and only positive 40% of the time. it's negative more often than not and the average move is down. >> everyone is at the beach and not out spending some. >> it could be, but if you are on vacation, you should be spending on all kinds of things. these are the numbers and not to say it will come true this time around, but over the last years,

this is the trend put in place if history repeats itself. they use this as a guide for maybe what you can do with your strategy. >> it's good to know. thank you very much. dominic chu. >> i am up about 60% of the time and the rest of the time i sleep. >> i say 50-50. should woe take a quick look at the markets? >> why not. >> why not. why do you have to milk every minute out of the show. every second. >> you might as well take it. it's yours. >> check the markets. >> you do. all you. over to you. >> brian. have a good weekend. enjoy the show. >> that was a heck of a show. >> that was a toss up. they stole it. mandy and tyler, have a good weekend. almost 2:00 on wall street. camp pendleton in carlsbad

california. you are watching the second half of power lunch. ending the week with a wimper and blowing $60 a barrel. the big story is melissa lee. >> i think you should feel bad about that. >> 30 seconds twice and i have a long memory. i have the same years. >> you are counting the seconds. amazing. the nasdaq is trading above the record close ask we are within a stone's throw of the nasdaq. back in march of 2000. take a look at the stocks. posting strong earnings and remember that stock got rushed yesterday. somewhat of a rebound and putting a buy rating on it. up almost 3%. >> on a serious note we are developing a story at the coast of louisiana. responding to a fire on an oil

platform near louisiana. it is operated by the investment company. they are coming from the scene and all the workers have indeed been safely evacuated. there only 100 to 120 barrels of oil stored and all the feeder wells have been shut off. the company saying it will work with the coast guard to advance any environment. we will keep you up to date. the other top story, a fed chair janet yellen wrapping up a speech on the economy in rhode island. >> the fed chair saying that a rate hike will be appropriate later this year if the economy comes through. that's just what she expects. once the fed starts. # the current economy, the slow down is largely on the west

coast. she mentioned the severe winter weather as well as what i have been talking about with the noise in the first quarter of gdp. # it remained below the 2% goal and will remain with the economy which she expects. it will increase. the labor market is approaching full speed. ultimately what i are hear is increasingly confident. they may be gaining confidence on the situation, but still undecideded on that for her. >> we have an econ hat trick and three topics that are hot.

questions on any of it and warren buffett and his "wall street journal." we begin with topic and reaction. joining us in addition steve. cnbc contributor and warren mccarthy and we did not hear a lot of new stuff. >> i think we probably will if they continue i love the three topics. good on you. he was less bullish and i'm broughtly in agreement, but if you head the paragraph, she cited two factors signalling

that the rate is elevated and part-time workers would rather be working full time. that's an indicator of slack. a bunch of people as a full point of the labor force participation rate. a bunch of people who are sitting out the job market and would come back. >> both of those things before. what i think is new here is when they say the job market is approaching full strength. approaching full strength means it is in place. >> i have another and that's the video. do you agree with anything? do you want to rebut what you heard and do you think we will get a rate hike as well. >> i think we will, but just at

the last minute. i have been thinking december of this year was the most likely time since december of 2013. jared is right and the level of unemployment has been a decline. the unemployment rate is falling a full percentage point while the participation as gone sideways. the key to when the labor market is where it needs to be. we start to get an acceleration of wage growths. we are not there yet. it grew more quickly and what yellen did was put it in a food note and said that happened. look at the other ganls are attracting the 2% range. i don't think she sees the kind of pressure that would lead to an early rate hike.

if inflation was at 2% and rising, i guess i would maintain that those are the preconditions that exist right now. you only need if anything a little bit from the job market it lay that condition and maybe he wants to add that. >> we have about three topics and one down. we have to get to two more. they set off a firestorm around this. do we discount all the data? >> no, you one of the things we get a lot of commentary on. you get rid of the issue of first quarter weakness and second quarter rebound. it never has been the case that one should look at a single month's worth of data.

some are more noisey and the long bit of noise. they looked at the payroll data. they don't see that. that would be something to look at to get rid of the noise. >> you are one of the economists and you plug it into the models. is it just a suggestion? >> there is no doubt. steve is right. we have three years in a row where there was good reason to expect that the economy would slow down in q1. we had a huge tax hike and two inches that were dreadful and port closings. it doesn't fit together in nice pieces. we haven't seen that since 2000. it's not clear what's going on in the economy. some of the weakness has carried

off into q2 a little bit troubling. when the bust settles, we will see a nice rebound with the activities. i totally agree with steve and i focus on year to year data and you are factoring with some extend and trend growth with gdp somewhere between 2 and 2.5%. >> a good discussion and let's move on. we will say goodbye. thank you very much. an op ed that raising minimum wage is not the best way to combat poverty and your thoughts. >> he is right that it is not going to solve poverty problems in this country.

the problem is the political class has given us an extremely lyly complicated code unless there is a strong change in attitudes about simplifying the tax code and using it in a constructively way. >> you wrote a piece linking to a paper about labor and higher minimum wage. when i clicked on the link it was a loan loaded paper you had to buy. what were your conclusions? they shut down for business on a lot of these. you see a lot of these in the states and los angeles, taking

it with -- they said i am against the $15 minimum wage for everybody. nobody is proposing that. the 15 is isolated and prices are higher. it should be up even though it's higher than average increase. he also said that he is for moderately higher minimum wage. >> the meat of the debate will probably -- and a big paper that dug into a lot of data about this. do higher minimum wages lead to job losses? >> that's the paper you are talking about. you are asking a good question which i didn't quite answer. >> the paper is a book and very clearly have their effect of raising the pay of low wageworkers with very modest

consequences. the beneficiaries far outweigh anybody who gets heart by it. we had wal-mart raised wages. do you believe this will be the final push that pushes it to the hike? >> we will see wages rising and i think the economy will grow faster. and in an opportunistic fashion that get us off to zero. thank you very much. appreciate it. here is your power menu. we have a good old fashioned stock fight. we will show you what could be seven of the housing marks in america. is your town on that list and the mystery surrounding why we are playing this song. speaking of mysteries, here is today's mystery chart.

stock up nearly 10% over the past week. do you know it? let us know. we are back after this. automotive innovation starts... right here. with a control pad that can read your handwriting, a wide-screen multimedia center, and a head-up display for enhanced driver focus. all inside a redesigned cabin of unrivaled style and comfort. the 2015 c-class. at the very touchpoint of performance and innovation. here at td ameritrade, they're always working. yup, we're constantly making thinkorswim better. like a custom screener on your desktop, that updates to all your devices. and you can share it with one click. wow. how do you find the time to do all this? easy. we combined every birthday and holiday into one celebration. (different holidays being shouted) back to work, guys! i love this times of year. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade.

you got this.

>> see and hear how the stocks are doing right now. only apple is up. wells fargo the only one up. they are all down.

in the face of a smart dollar global demand for the large. the company's profits topping estimates and they missed in the recent quarter. they have a deeper look from the power place. mary? >> this is basically known as guy heaven. during the last quarter of the companies, profits declined and it did beat bottom line and analyst expectations from the bottom line to cost cuts. steady sales of the lawn equipment. along with strength in the construction and forestry unit. let's look at the numbers. 2.03 a share. $1.4 billion below estimates. deer has been challenged by a stronger dollar and falling commodity prices for sings like soy beans and corn. that in turn has cut demand for

the big farm equipment in the key markets. add to that, it has seen weaker growth in brazil and china and russia. it has been strong sales to some of the smaller ag producer dairy farmers. that has been good and that construction and forestry units. the story here is a stronger u.s. economy and increase in u.s. housing starts. that helped demand and even though it has been offset slightly for weaker demand. to fight the challenges dooer maintains --eere maintains -- even as steals decline by 19% this year and that's higher than the previous forecast of a decline of 17%. most due to a bigger impact and expecting that impact to be 4% instead of 3%.

the company is also going to be holding the line on costs and that's the bottom line in the coming months. back to you. >> did you say guy heaven? >> i think this is guy heaven pretty much. >> i can appreciate a tractor here and there. all right. >> tractors and mowers. >> i can't see you on ia tractor. you are a city girl. >> let's get a bull and a bear debate much the fight is bound to break out. deutsch bank has the only buy at the highest price of $106 a share. this is one of the only finalists with a sell rating on the stock. he has the street's lowest target at $72 a share. great to have you with us. let's start off with you. you are the bull in this debate and going through the note i thought i read a bear case here. new use ag levels are growing.

you also acknowledged a decline that they cited in the quarter and may not mark the bottom of the ag equipment site. why buy here? >> there four points that came out today. first and foremost we thought despite the significant decline in revenue, deere can maintain strong profitability. in fact in the ag business the company raised the profit margin estimate to about 8% versus expectations. the bottom line is the company is managing the downturn extremely well. the at the time rimtdetrimental markets and in the past cycles the company margins have been about 50%. the second point is that the company is making news of the cash that they are generating with the buy back. this quarter they bought about $500 million of shares and that's well ahead of our

expectations and with the strong fact along with the more diversified business model, i think the company can go with the downturn a lot better. >> i want to bring you in. it does seem like they are holding when it comes to cost and seeing stronger than expected demand with the farms and the forestry unit. is it all doom and gloom because the prices are lower? >> >> deere is a great company and not only would 2015 be a weak year but normal weather, 2016 plus will be similar years and it will take two to three cycles before the industry can correct. we have lower commodity prices and corn was below and we sold a lot of equipment in the past couple of years and the outlook, they raise their operating profit margin from 7% to 8%. 7 to 8% for the rest of ag. the company is macing the

downturn. that's a stock whose earnings will be in that range for a couple years with downside risks. the construction number was disappointing as they cut guidance from 5% to 2%. even though profitability was in line. >> at what point do you get concerned that they were too low and won't support those who need to place through cost cutting, etc. >> the large improvement market in the u.s. will be down 50% from the prior levels. we are assuming that 2016 will be challenging and could be flat or down but even in that environment, we can see that they are down more than $5 of earnings and that should be a strong dividend yield to support the stock. >> good debate. thank you. enjoy the weekend. >> thank you. thank you. >> what might be the seven hot housing markets in america.

inside facebook a incredible building think. real trees on the roof. stick with us.

a dramatic situation in

london. ex-cavating a live world war ii bomb near wembley stadium. they discovered it while doing construction in the area. a glass ball was built around the site to contain any explosion. a 110-pound bomb is believed to have been dropped in the early 1940s in nazi raids over london. >> facebook shares have more than dibbled since the ipo and the company is growing fast and that means the need for more space. we have exclusive access inside facebook's newest building. >> facebook is just passing the 10,000 employee mark. apple stealing headlines with the new spaceship-spaced headquarters. partnering with frank gar tow design mpk 20. the goal is to be ecofriendly and the commission to connect people. they created the largest open

floor plan in the world and the local artists to decorate it. the 4030,000 square foot space and zuckerberg works right in the middle. on top is a-acre green roof with a walking loop and white bores and wi-fi. and the native plantses insulate insulate to minimize cooling costs. the chief people officer said the campus and the message it sends to employees is a big draw. >> it really creates an environment where people can collaborate and they can innovate together. there is a lot of spontaneity and the way people jump into each other is a fun creative space. >> now facebook won't tell us how much it cost but said it came in under budget and faster than expected. it was built in 18 months. brian? >> cool building there.

thank you very much. another look at today's mystery chart. it is up nearly 10% just since minute. here's another hint. you shouldn't have to be a mega mind to figure this one out, but first let's talk about the crudes. that's another clue to the mystery chart, but we are talking crude oil. if crude holds at the levels it will do something it never has done before. we will tell you what that is as we take you out to the break. the technology changes the design evolves the engineering advances. but the passion to drive a mercedes-benz is something that is common... to every generation of enthusiast. the 2015 dream machines, from mercedes-benz. today's icons. tomorrow's legends. visit the dream machine event today for up to $3,500 towards purchase.

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. hello, everyone. eye sue he rer a. the state department releasing secretary of state hillary clinton's e-mails regarding the attack on the diplomatic facilities in benghazi. she received information on her private e-mail server. they have been classified. because the information was not classified at the time the e-mail was sent no laws were violated. the responsibility for an attack in the mosque in eastern saudi arabia, several people were killed when a suicide bomber blew himself up in friday prayers. this is worth another look.

in london, police said an unexploded world war ii bomb prompted the evacuation of nearby homes and businesses. the bomb was discovered by builders working near that stadium. the transportation department issued a constructively action order to the pipeline rupture leading to the california oil spill. there is one of the casualties. some of the seaworld's wildlife care members are working to clean off the oiled sea lion from the spill, but the latest said that unfortunately she is not doing all that well. that oil is very toxic and she is very stressed by the experience. understandably so and we hope she makes a full recovery. that's the news update. back to you. >> thank you very much. kind of an odd segue here. oil is on pace to finish with ten straight weeks of gains and that is something that never happened before. let's get out from bertha coombs from the nymex. >> i have been watching that.

if we get it settled above 5916 oil will have been up for ten straight weeks. today once again and it's really been the story this week it's all about the buck. that move in the dollar is really whacked and stacked the energy out of the oil complex except for gasoline. the expectation is that we will see one of the biggest driving weekends this memorial day holiday we have seen in about a decade. gasoline prices are up 19 days in a row and down nearly about $1 from last year. as brian was mentioning, this could be the tenth straight week for move up in oil. we saw the big count come out and not as big as we have seen. only about one countdown. down about 60% from last year but production is still up about 10% from a year ago. back to you. >> thank you. a federal appeals court made a ruling on a top selling alzheimer's drug that could make

things difficult. meg? >> melissa, we talked about this last month looking at the hearing of a u.s. appeals court. the ruling just coming down today. they are saying that activists have to keep the older version on the market. activists have been sued by the new york attorney general when it was trying to pull the drug off the market. it is known as a pardon switch. this is going to lose patent protection this year and pull the drug off the market and switch over to a newer version of the drug that they only had to take once a day. the older one they had to take twice. they wanted to do that before the copies flooded the market place so it would be harder to switch back to the twice a day. the attorney general said it was unethical and illegal and it looks like they agreed with them. they are upholding and saying they have to keep the drug on the market. this has implications where they are not reacting. for the rest of the drug

industry that employs these tactics like valiant have also employed these strategies. potential implications like this. >> thank you very much. here on power lunch, they are always working to find investment opportunities for you. way is to find the stocks that hedge funds love. there is also big opportunity in buying stocks that the hedge funds hate. this sounds contrarian. >> it is and some argue it may or may not be crazy, but the team took a look at the stocks that are the most hated by hedge funds and they are not involved in much at all. maybe if you are looking to outperform the market, go after thes the ones that nobody else is looking at. subscribers can see this on the website, but in a research note to clients, goldman sachs said

the way you believe hedge funds can boost performance to the market and the piers by focusing on the unowned stocks. that means risk that is specific to a stock and not the broader market overall. this is what they believe. they have a whole list of stocks in the research report. they picked out a few that are notable. let's take a look at the names. we put the performance for context. they think whole feeds is one of the under owned stocks according to their research. they figured out that about 2% is owned by hedge funds. that is down about 16% year to date. they think according to the models, it could outperform. sky works solutions, they think about 3% of the market cap is owned by hedge funds. maybe a little bit under owned. that is up 45% and they believe there is maybe outperformance

there. another 1 to watch, monster beverage is up 20% year to date but 4% of the market cap owned by huj funds. these are the stocks out there that perhaps might add outperformance if they get more owned. >> interesting stuff there and crazy and contrarian, but we like that. you can find more stocks on that los angeles. go to powerlunch.cnbc.com. it is time for trading nation. traders trade better together. we bring in a team every day and we will look at the tlt, the big bond etf down nearly 5%. analysts with piper jaffray and head of institutional portfolio strategy. did bond traders learn anything new from janet yellen's speech that might influence your rating or ka you will on the tlt or bonds in july? >> i was surprised she was more specific in terms of commenting on areas of the economy she was

expecting to improve. she noted housing and mortgage activity starting to pick up and municipal spending that will help out the economy. she is noting how global growth will start to rebound and we have seen that in non-u.s. data especially in europe. that was keeping global readies very, very low. low rates around the world. they started to come back up and we have seen u.s. rates start to come back up as well. the overall picture suggests higher rates and that's what we are seeing with the yield curves widening out a bit. >> the tlt one of the ways that mom and pop can play the bond market without being a broker or primary dealer. how do the charts look? >> hey, brian. it's a clear cell. you look at the chart that violated an up turn support line. from the price action perspective, you can see it made a clear lower high in the most recent price action and violated the 40-week moving average.

i would look to sell it. the rates are going higher. our projection is between 250 and 275 yield on the 10-year by year end. >> look it sell it if you own it. can't be more clear than that. we like it. thank you very much. for more trading nation head to our website where we do two other websites every day except for saturday and sunday because we are not working. >> let's take a look at today's mystery chart. last time. have you guessed it yet? it's up more than 10% over the last week. the answer is ahead and category announcing the water cuts for farmers. the impact when power lunch returns.

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>> the first batch of the

private secretary of state have been released in public. in washington john? he had about 300 of the e-mails and they were turned over to the state department and they had a lot of them already because they had been corresponding with the coulds. in any case she turned them over. it couldn't come soon enough. >> these that are being released today have the committee jurisdiction. they were given to the committee some months ago. it's beginning. i would like to see it expedited to get more out more quickly. >> a significant concentration of e-mails about the attacks in benghazi. they are the subject of an investigative theory. the mareman of that mittee said

if there were no results of the findings released today, these had been vetted. her lawyers continued to express a demand for the entire contents of her server. that is not destined to happen but this will go on for a long time. they said that the e-mails noted the talking points and warning signs are relevant to his investigations. >> thank you. this time now for street talk and analyst recommendations on the stocks that you need to know. cf industries. after meeting with piper jaffray, raising the target from 327. it's about 12% percent more upside. they raised estimates and it is overweight. >> this is a new high and what you might like is fertilizer trading. it could be to been reach.

the second we are watching it footlocker. the analyst points out that the comps are 7.8% are impreeszive even though they had tough comparisons. the strong execution and product. this is the related trade here. >> of 60 retail stocks that's only the 17th best retail game over a year? >> i did not know that. >> i didn't until i looked it up. this is great cocktail party trivia. >> i will take that to my cocktail party. >> starting coverage of the buy rating. despite recent challenges, they see big opportunities overseas. it's becoming more westernized. it needs bigger transmissions to

pull the stuff and sees margin improvement as higher wait workers retired. >> they're reported at the end of april and they mentioned trouble on the top line. that was a revenue at the toft of the eps. the fourth stock is the fresh market on the back of mixed results. also they go down to $30 and $38. the rating is under performed. business appears to have slow and not interesting to discount. the lack of a full time ceo and not differentiated. >> piper jaffray piles on. there was concerning competition. they do not fresh market is trading at a discount to conventional stocks but that sets estimates that you know better than anybody could go down. finally today's under the radar

name, this is interesting. select us sa. it is based in paris, france. the ticker is a biotech. oppenheimer began coverage and outperformed and when i saw that with a $65 target the stocks at 32. that is more than a double. i got ahold of the analyst and wanted to make sure it was correct. he support us the note. the company is a leader in the genome-engineering space. we bought into that last summer. >> it operates at the hottest part of immunotherapies. compare this to a kid bomber or a blue burd. they have been soaring and we should note this is a european sock. we will shares here. >> it's an adr. it is four stocks and an adr.

i issue a formal correction. thank you. it is time to reveal the mystery chart. it's up nearly 10%. i gave you peerdweird hits. that is also my pick for stock of the week that you do every friday. dream works is at quite a come back. 32% gain over the past three months. i understand well below the 2010. pointing out that dream works has come back a little. >> that was always sort of the target, the potential target for a take over. that is the rumor driving the stock higher. my stock is if you take a look at the one-week chart, the stock more than doubled on wednesday alone. it is filing a new drug application. that's a huge jump for the stock. be careful. it is degree to go against it with a competing experimental drug. the hearings are back to back.

it could be an interesting stock showdown when they happen. >> that are is it for stocks of the week. i got a pocket full of quarters and i'm headed to the arcade. it is the 35th anniversary of pacman and people are celebrating in bizarre ways. we will show you. you can call me shallow... but, i have a wandering eye. i mean, come on. national gives me the control to choose any car in the aisle i want. i could choose you...

or i could choose her if i like her more. and i do. oh, the silent treatment. real mature. so you wanna get out of here? go national. go like a pro.

they set a guinness world record apparently for pacman fans in one place, or something. a 3-d model was launched into space using a helium balloon attached to a gopro camera. this was part of a promotion for a new video game movie. california stepping up mandatory water restrictions for farmers across the state. jane wells has been following story and joins us now. jane? >> hey brian. the drought is bringing historic changes. californians with water rights going back over a century seemingly untouchable may face cuts. that hasn't happened since 1977 the last time jerry brown was governor. at a preemptive move farmers

have made a stunning offer to voluntarily cut water use by 25% if the state promises that's it, no more? this afternoon, the state will announce whether it will accept that deal. in just over an hour from now. it's not clear how many farmers will agree to voluntary cuts. it's not clear how they'll prove they did cut. enforcement looks a little vague. farmers will submit water reduction plans by june 1st. they will skip planting cotton tomatoes or melons. get this, not involved in this deal, a lot of farmers in the southern end of the central valley where there is less water. why? they are junior rights holders and they've already faced cuts. it could be a big deal if enough farmers do it. it may mean some seasonal crops could go away.

as for whether the state will cut the rights of all senior rights holders, not just the farmers, that decision has been postponed. the "l.a. times" reports among the senior holders is san francisco, meaning the city by the bay could be affected as well. >> america's hottest housing markets may be getting too hot. that story, next. it's part adrenaline and part adventure. it's part geek and part chic. it's part relaxation and part exhilaration. it's part sports car and part suv. and the best part? the 2015 gla. it's 100% mercedes-benz. e financial noise

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recall attention to selective clls the name we talked about, street talkers, under the radar name. oppenheimer putting a $65 price target on the stock. that stock moved more than 4 bucks a share right when we talked about it. clls is up 15.5%. >> now on the radar brian. >> yes. >> if you've been trying to buy a home in the past year you may have noticed frost in the market. where are homes overvalued right now? diana olick knows. she joins us right now. >> hot is right on this market. this time people are doing it without the help of easy credit. in seven markets, home prices are pushing past what is considered sustainable based on median income that is they are overvalued at least according to a new report. four of the seven are in texas,

austin houston, dallas and san antonio. they were fueled by oil and gas during the last housing boom which pushed population and prices. prices are at historic highs, dallas nearly 15% higher than the peak in 2007. austin prices about 39% above what core logic considers sustainable. also on the list charleston south carolina, miami and right here in washington, d.c. home values in these markets are well below their peaks of 2007. miami 28% below. miami is being fueled by an abundance of foreign cash right now. in charleston it's a strong economy and job growth. nationally the median price of a home sold in april was $219,400. that's up nearly 9% from a year ago according to the realtors. still not matching the '06 peak. the chief economist said we could approach or reach that peak this year. the folks at core logic say overvalued does not necessarily

mean unhealthy or imply a bust anytime soon. it's actually more indicative of the wealth gap in our nation and the fact that we desperately need more home construction which would level the prices off. more of course online check realtycnbc.com. >> a house was listed for 1 million, sold at over 2 million. it's delap tated. the average home in san jose is 11 times the median income. are we getting stupid out in the golden state again? you live there. >> the bubble that we have here in real estate prices is really enormous. prices are up between 60% and 80% over the last three years. so the market that diana mention ready not overvalued relative to any sort of historical numbers. we are in california in the biggest situation, honolulu, pretty similar and manhattan. it's a very different set of places. prices that go up tremendously fast, that is what worries me

most. >> during the peak of the bubble we had people buying homes for 10, 12, 15 dimes s times income out in places like phoenix this time it's different because the kinds of derivatives based on the loans are different. i hope. >> it's much better. people have to put down real down payments. standards are very tight. we're being fooled by the fact that our mortgage rates are low. if mortgage rates go up 1.5 percentage points from the present very low levels as i think they'll do over the next three years, affordability becomes more tight and that's when we could see a price correction in bubble markets. i define bubble markets are those where prices have gone up more than 50% in the last three yearses. >> what prompts that popping of the bubble? >> i think big increases in prices and a sharp slowdown in employment growth. that is -- >> do you see that in a place like san francisco where everybody is hiring because of facebook and google et cetera

et cetera? >> san francisco's risk is that all these private companies have huge valuations. they're using that capital to fund money losing hiring. they're hiring lots of people. if the capital markets correct as they will in the tech sector and valuations come back dramatically as they might well come back 40, 50, 60%, there will be lots of layoffs and the job growth numbers which have been so robust we're the strongest in the entire country in silicon valley or san francisco, could slow or decline. >> let's hope that doesn't happen. melissa, what's on "fast money" tonight? >> i don't know if you know this, the dow is doing something it has not done in 100 years. >> i don't. >> it could be a bullish sign for the market. we'll tell you all about it what it's doing, et cetera et cetera, tonight at 5:00. >> i'll watch it from laguardia. thank you very much. >> i hope so. as we wrap up in the show, have a great long weekend. enjoy a barbecue. but remember, remember what

memorial day is all about, those who have lost their life for this great nation. thanks to all of you have who served including my dad, first class petty officer tom sullivan. have a good weekend. "closing bell" starts right now. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm sara eisen in today for kelly evans april the new york stock exchange. no place i'd rather be on a friday afternoon. >> we love having you here on the friday before memorial day. i'm bill griffeth. fed chair janet yellen said she expects to raise interest rates this year if the economy continues improving. that's the big caveat. any positive close for the s&p will be a new all-time high. we're not there yet, though. >> we've been seeing it happen all week long. the nasdaq the outperformer trying to close at its own record high.