trying to figure it out. there a lot of good drivers. next to formula 1, i think it's the best in u.s. soil. >> you're going with american pharaoh? >> i'm kidding! >> have a great memorial day weekend. thanks for having me here on this friday. we've got "fast money" coming up in just a few seconds. >> melissa lee, what do you have on top? >> we have a big show. have you noticed the markets haven't done much lately? it means something. we'll tell what you it is. >> "fast money" starts right now. i'm melissa lee. tonight on "fast", the dow is doing something it has not done in a hundred years. we'll tell what you that is and what it means for stocks. plus a major twitter shareholder says he has got some suggestions on how to fix twitter. we have our own suggestions and, warning, it might not be as

nice. transports underperforming the broader markets in the largest divergence in history. does this spell trouble for the markets? what's notable is we haven't seen a bounce. >> the transports topped out in late november, early december, made a bounce a few times until recently and then it fell off the cliff. does it spell trouble for the broader market? it hasn't yet. people say the weakness in the transports is because of the airlines. the latest weakness in the transports is because of the airlines. the rails started to come unhinged, you had fedex and ups add to it. it hasn't made a difference yet. my opinion stays above 120.5 the iwm, i think we're okay. >> there's a lot of things that used to be on the table or make or break for the market. the market's been ticking up. at this point i'd be mother worried about the s&p and the sort of ambivalence of the

marketplace where people doesn' know what to do. so i would be a seller up here. i don't know. i think it's out of gas. i think it's all part of it but i think that the market if we were a little bit -- we could always have this argument that the transports are running out of steam, so to speak, and the s&p rallied on top of it. i think it's running out of gas period. >> earlier you said you thought the airlines would be a buy on the pullback. do you believe that? >> capacity is coming back to the airline sector. i think they're not going to throw four years of hard work out the window. look at fedex, ups, csx. these are charts that look pretty good. fedex's business to me and their margins is something i would be investing in today. >> josh? >> if i were to detail every time a breakdown in the transports did not signal doom for the industrials, we would be here all night. the second thing is absolutely i agree with guy. now the airlines are breaking

down. prior to that it was the rails. but we cannot have this discussion without talking about oil. oil getting killed was terrible for the rails last fall. it's where they make a lot of their money and obviously coal and all of the other pins that get knocked down. now the resurgence in oil is terrible for the airline. oil is up ten straight weeks since march 21st, has been relentless. you're kind of getting this second shoe dropping with the airlines. that's what's keeping this index depressed. the third thing, the dow jones transport index is up year after year. it's not like it's getting killed, it just hasn't been doing well, to which i say big deal. >> the negativity out there coming through a decent earning season, people trying to look at readjustment rates and make big picture prognostications, listen to merrill lynch. they say cash allocations highest since june 2008. for the first time in a long

time and all the way back to '08 you're at a place to me -- the s&p goes higher, some of the trade working go lower. no one wants to say they want to own the s&p here. >> for the most part you think the jury is still out in terms of the transports signaling something bad for the market. if you're right and higher oil prices are good for the rails, bad for the airlines, is that your trade? guy? >> at certain point you get an equilibrium on the crude oil price. you my get it at $60. i think some of the airlines are worth owning. united airlines technically is broken down. jetblue, the stock, despite the fact it's sold of the last couple days, i think the rally is in tact. if i had to pick, i'd pick jet blue. kansas city southern has not been able to get out of its own way despite the crude. >> i think jetblue is the clear

winner out of all of this. if i were going to be a buyer are airlines, i'd buy jetblue. if you don't want any part of this trade -- i'm a little nervous about the rails. when you see crude rally back, it still can't rally as much as it should. it's been cut in half. it should still be a tail wind for a lot of these airlines. you guys have talked about it to a great extent, talking about capacity issues, talking about fares and being competitive. jetblue seems to have figured it out. >> sticking with the dow because the biggest market story of the year is actually the lack of a story at all. since the beginning of the year, the dow has done something it it hasn't done in a hundred years, trading in its smallest range ever. jonathan, what are you seeing and what sort of indicators for the market overall? >> you said it, the market has been quite narrow range and boring this year. i don't think people realize how

narrow it's been. one of the things we looked at is the intra year range for the daf y dow jones industrial average. we have the closing high to the closing low, the average is about 6%, compared to 15%. we're well below half the range we've historically seen over the last hundred years. where does that rank in history? these are the narrowest ranges for the dow jones industrial average over the last hundred years. here you are see 2015 -- in 19 years where the range has been under 10%. the second half of the year on average is actually up 4.4%. not bad. and the total year range is about -- advance is about 8.25%. that's better than the average year. the net-net, narrow range tends to leave to above average gains

going forward for the rest of the year. >> so in terms of where the dow is right now, so that's going to be quite a catch up in the second half of the year then, if we have to believe the 8% figure. >> it doesn't necessarily mean we have to get up to that 8% range. we're calling this a two step forward, one step back market. we're getting slightly new highs and pullback. stock selection is probably more important than market direction this year. >> jonathan, great to have you with us. thank you. >> thank you. >> you feel it on the floor. nothing going on. >> it's complacency. if you look at technical calls, you have a ping-pong ball and it's bouncing back and forth, i don't know. i don't know if it's going to be plus or minus 4%. i think you're going to have a big move, a breakout, or you're going to see us break down and

we'll be down quickly 50 handles. >> it's not complacency. i think it's the total opposite. if you look at where all the cash is in the market, we're at 2008 levels. i think you're heading to the place where it's getting to a binary event. i think it's going to possibly explode to the up side because i think the expectations are so low. >> you guys are saying the same thing. >> i think people are very scared. being scared makes you go to cash. >> people are making their decisions. they want to see the market either break out or break down and they're still sitting on their hands. >> where do you stand? >> i think that you've got $14 trillion invested in the stock market right now in the u.s. $8.5 trillion of it roughly is in index money. the rest it have is at the margin and a lot of that is hedge fund money. everyone is now approaching the half year point and nobody wants to go into the second half of

the year trailing by a great degree. so what i will tell you is that the gentleman saying however this resolves itself will be explosive are exactly right. if it's even a minor move to the up side, managers will pounce on that and refuse to go another year where they underperform in the market. mutual fund managers that have 3% on the sidelines, they're throwing it into etfs. that's how scared people are to underperform. i think the move will be explosive. >> coming up, a major shareholder says he's about to unload advice on how to fix twitter. >> plus, it is fleet week here in new york city. we thought we'd give our sailor friends some investment advice. much more "fast money" straight ahead. we live in a pick and choose world.

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just because i'm away from my desk doesn't mean i'm not working. comcast business understands that. their wifi isn't just fast near the router. it's fast in the break room. fast in the conference room. fast in tom's office. fast in other tom's office. fast in the foyer [pronounced foy-yer] or is it foyer [pronounced foy-yay]? fast in the hallway. i feel like i've been here before. switch now and get the fastest wifi everywhere. comcast business. built for business. twitter is under fire again. early investor and shareholder chris sacca posting a blog saying it's time for twitter to make some changes. he writes "i am going to post a few things that i personally

hope that the twitter team will accomplish. i want to make clear that my feedback comes from a place of loyalty. chris. >> i don't think it's broken. >> if he's a shareholder -- >> he's a shareholder. he's upset the way the stock is traded. people made the same complaint about facebook, and now they're being rewarded. i think twitter is in the same place facebook was a few years. me and l.b. were scoping it out before. >> you're like a budding steven spielberg with that periscope. >> how can you say the stock is fine? i'm someone that believes -- i believe there's up side in twitter. clearly they are having a very

difficult time not only growing their core maus -- >> so what do they -- >> getting it to a place where the advertisers say it's worth it to me. they want to target their audience and deliver more effective ads. like facebook is doing on video. i think they can, they haven't done it yet. that's the answer. >> i tweeted my advice to sacca, which is to sell to google at 55. google for the first time yesterday just reintroduced twitter tweets back into its search results, which is so important on a lot of levels. i do not search google any longer for anything recent. when i want news, i search twitter. i am not alone. google has that game to lose right now and they don't want to, which is why they're doing deals with twitter. twitter could benefit from deals and modernization. i think twitter has done a good

job with ads. i think it's unfair they've been compared to facebook. it's kind of a ridiculous comparison. they're not as far along. >> they have to monetize non-logged in users. it was a mopug instance where we thought they would monetize that. they have to make video ads a lot more attractive. the bottom line is technically these broke down from the earnings low. i'm very nervous. >> it looks like sales force did have a suitor but not anymore. david favor reporting sales force and microsoft held significant talks but fizzled when the two couldn't come to an agreement over pricing. now what? steve grasso. >> we all knew what was on the chopping block, what was there to be the potential m & a.

>> there had to be a suitor. >> microsoft basically flat on year. i think the hidden gem here is s.a.p. slowly grinding higher, figuring stuff out. big mcdermott, friend of the show, friend of mine, up 7%. >> the numbers are the most important part for crf. they believe they don't need anybody. of course what else are they going to say. for people that think the m & a are a big part of this, they had to announce something the other day. who wants to pay a hundred times multiple? >> quick on microsoft. did they lose out? >> he saying no. i think sales force -- i don't think it's a commoditized business. are they missing out? probably yes. i still think ibm is out there floating around. >> it's not distressed property.

they just reiterated their goal, sales force, $10 billion in revenue. they are now rolling out verticals. the first one will be health care. it's dramatic. >> i agree. >> they're doing fine without any buyer. >> they will be fine without any buyer. i just think there are buyers lurking. >> still ahead, the unofficial start of the summer is here and it's time for a "fast money" vacation. >> careful. must be a big car. >> here's what else is coming up. >> announcer: why is warren buffett smiling? because one of his big holdings is surging and we've got the name. plus, it the one retailer that's actually benefitting from higher gas. we'll tell you how to profit from it later in the hour.

welcome back to "fast money." it's the friday before memorial day, the unofficial start of summer. we thought we'd dive into the american trip. let's go and the horn, give the

traders top summer vacation stock picks. starting with tim. >> the ultimate summer's name is disney. have you not only the theme parks of which euro disney, guy gri griz wald will be attending this summer. to me disney, until they disappoint you, is the gift that keeps on giving. yes, 16 times forward multiple, they continue to deliver, i stay long the stock. >> trb. >> i picked boston beer company. it should be noted i'm not only a shareholder, i'm also a client. i think this is like the quintessential american brand. when i think about the summer, i think about july 4th, memorial day, et cetera. if you bought it last summer, had a tremendous earnings report and spiked in the fall. hopefully expectations have come down enough that we could see something similar. >> grasso? >> marriott's a spinoff. they spun off their time share

unit. it's going to a points based system. they own the ritz carlton. that's one of their base properties as well. i'm not only the owner of a time share burr i love the stock here. >> i have my skate board on the weekends. >> just talk about your stock, please. >> zoomies, zoomiez. 14.5 times forward earnings, not crazy expensive, decent short interest. zumiez. >> i think they've lost the youth. >> which is why guy is buying it. >> if you're into it, the kids are running out of the store. >> memorial day weekend is the unofficial start of summer but

it's also the day we pay honor to the many brave men of the armed services. we honored to have them with us today. lieutenant craig coyle. where are you from? >> i'm from moore head city, north carolina. now i'm in norfolk, virginia. >> how long you have been serving our country? >> just over three years, ma'am. >> what are your plans for the long term? >> i'm not sure. at this point i'm looking toward staying in but keeping my options open. >> do you trade? >> i do slightly. >> what's your question for our traders? >> i've been researching google lately. and my question is does google still hold value beside the investments that they've made in companies like ali baba and yahoo! japan? >> i think value is why you're investing in google right now. to me 18, 17 times with 20 plus percent growth. a lot of people have questioned

some of those investments in smaller, more arcane technologies, drivable cars. we talk about ad technology. that's where i think google is going. i own google, i would say long google. >> your advice to lieutenant greg. >> yeah, i agree with tim on google and actually, it's funny, we just looked at the top ten stock holdings of four different generations of americans from millennials to the silent generation, not one of those groups had google in the top ten yet it's one of the largest market cap stocks in the world. so it's actually underowned in my view relative to how important it is to the world, to advertising, to media, to technology. i agree. i like google and i would own it. >> i wonder if they know the game. >> mentioned yahoo! -- >> would i rather google or yahoo!? >> exactly. >> google. i think yahoo! has up side but google has not performed since

2014. i think the breakout will be to the up side. if you made me pick like you just did, google will get you did. >> i did and i'm going to do the same. >> i'm going to pick yahoo!. google, i sold it in late march. it still has not get above the price where i sold it. something is going on here. we're running out of gas. >> our thanks to lieutenant greg coyle and his fellow men. >> time now for "pops & drops." tim? >> this is a company where i think the value -- valuation is problem. >> buy lgf on the breakout. >> expedia. >> they stole a stake in their china based e-travel business but they own travel.

they own etravel. i would stay in the name. >> pop for deere? >> they slammed their head up against the level three times since 2010. today they broke through, buffa buffett is buying it. i like it myself. >> my final trade is eem. >> did you just look at your paper? >> i did. >> josh brown. >> he wasn't looking at his paper. he good served with papers. deere. sam adams. i like them both. >> you can't have two. >> i'm never on the show, you guys. let me have two! >> grasso. >> i sold out of a majority of my positions a couple of months ago. i'm waiting for a pullback. i kept apple and i bought another 50% of where i wanted to be in apple. i'm still long. i got longer. thank you to our troops.

>> happy birthday, i think she's 15. i know how old she is. remember what memorial day is when you're grilling your dogs on sunday or whatever the hell you do, remember why you are honoring these people. lions gate is breaking out to the upside. >> that does it for us here on "fast money." see you back here at 5:00 on tuesday. "options action" starts right after the break. stay tuned.

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we are live. carter has a wager of the weekend on tap. >> the only thing that we have to fear is fear itself. >> well, maybe not, f.d.r. a collapse in the vix could be signaling trouble in stocks. we'll tell you how to protect yourself. plus it's the one retailer that benefits from higher gas costs. >> please tell me. >> we will. you'll be shocked at how little could costs. . talk about a heist? >> will you rob a bank