program. >> dan, thank you for being here. i love getting a look at these. maybe someday we can see them flying. dan murray appreciate it. that does it for us on "closing bell." time now for fast money. melissa lee, what's going on? one chart, five words, the great ketchup trade. >> i think i heard train. straight over to you guys. >> thanks kelly , "mast money" starts right now. i'm melissa lee. traders are tim seymour, steve grasso josh brown and guy adammy. tonight on fast oil's massive spike, crude soaring back above 60 bucks a barrel ghu is this the real rally on deck? next week with the kickoff to opec, a top energy analyst weighs in. plus billionaire investor paul singer says now is the time to get against treasuries. will he get burned like so many before on his next big short? first to the story rocking the street bristol-myers tanking, more than 7% on data released from asco that could send drug company stocks plummeting.

don chu has more on this developing story at headquarters. don? >> we're getting back some of the big losses in the afterhours. right now it's up 34 cents, about a half percent. it's gotten back on 176,000 shares of volume but bristol-myers squibb tumbling today on disappointment over what appeared to be strong results from a study of one of its cancer treatments called opdivo. this drug did improve survival rates for patients with the most common form of lung cancer but it didn't work as well when tumors had a lower level of a specific type of protein. without going too deeply into it analysts had been hoping the drug would be more effective for all levels of this particular condition so that the stock did sell off sharply. that was one of the big reasons why. closing with the biggest one-day percentage loss since august of 2012. so with bristol-myers, this is all centered around that american society of clinical oncologists, that big conference going on right now for the

anti-cancer participants. it will be interesting to see. this is just the first headline. we'll see if it rocks things up next week. back over to you. >> that protein, pd-1 protein. another drug out there, an experimental drug is going after the same protein also for lung cancer and that will be merck. we did see merck rise a bit on the back of the news on bristol's disappointing news i guess. merck is up 2%. >> bristol-myers, a lot of -- everybody loves brifl ss bristol-myers. it trades close to 30 times forward earnings. when you get headlines like this on a friday before this conference, that's what's going to happen. so if you want to play the valuation game i'd rather own eli lilly at 22 times forward earnings. but better yet, i'd own pfizer which is in the teens. pfizer, slow steady wins the race. bristol-myers, you'll get a shot to buy it cheper than it is right now. if you're looking for the middle trade, it's eli lilly. >> i think the reason this isn't necessarily something you should read is they're 40% oncology

revenues and this is to me a much bigger hit for these guys. i don't know this reads to all the other players. guy says this is a stock you don't need to chase here. i will say it's traded down after hours to a level where you can begin to pick up the stock and i think that's something people will probably begin to do because i think people, as guy said, are overreacting on a friday afternoon to news that -- you know. >> we've said time and time again that some of the larger companies are acting more like biotech companies. hence we are seeing declines and volatility associated with biotech. it's not often you see a large cap pharma stock down in a single session. >> it's up 10% while bristol-myers trails. merck in line with that. but technically, pfizer actually was challenged on the chart. bristol has a much better setup going into this print. i would wait a couple days and be a buyer of bristol. >> what do you think in bio tech. >> i think i agree with steve. build a buyer. if you go back and look at the history of these types of announcements where a data series didn't show efficacy or

people were underwhelmed, everyone one has been a buying opportunity. when you look at the depth and breadth of this patent portfolio, it tells you there's more happening here than just one clinical trial that didn't go that well. >> this makes me worried about the other biotech stocks that might be on one's radar if one is to trade asco. >> you should always be worried. a lot of binary events going into this. but there are companies that are called biotechs that don't trade like biotechs. they're big pharma. look at the recent run gilead has had. everybody buried this company a few times over the last nine months and here we are trading 110ish and cell gene as well. amgen can't get out of its way. they have an incredible pipeline and drugs out there already. in order, cell gene gilead amgen. >> the one thing about the stocks is the dividend. when you see this move people look at these stocks and say this is something i've been looking for an opportunity to get back in. 62 on bristol-myers is the

level. let's get to the other big mover in today's session, that would be oil. crude climbing more than 4% settling above 60 bucks a barrel but is today's spike a precursor to a larger move higher ahead of next friday's opec's meeting. the global head of energy analysis at oil price energy service joins us. tom, great to have you with us. the expectation is that nothing is going to happen at this opec meeting, correct? >> oh i think that's the reasonable expectation. all the rhetoric from the saudi, the kuwaitis, the emirates has indicated they will roll over the current production agreement and continue to cheat in the cases of people that do. so no i mean anything from opec that cuts output even by 50,000 barrels a day would be an absolute shock. >> so what is the deal with this big giant move we saw on wti today. oil had been trading higher all day. the envintory data was mixed. the dollar move wasn't commensurate with the giant move we saw in oil.

what was behind this? >> all good points. i think it was friday. i think you had the mosque bombing in the morning and the worries that isis violence might continue. we're having the anniversary very soon of the fall of mosul and i think probably going into a worry that propped up crude and sent tremendous volumes into some of the front months. in addition to that you've got just terrific refining margins. so there's not much resistance from refiners to pay the higher crude oil prices because they're selling gasoline or diesel fuel for $85, $875 barrel. these numbers work. >> tom, what do you think about biofuel versus fossil fuel? you saw that written ruling with the renewable identification numbers. that added on to the list -- the litany of everything you just went through. you should have seen crude actually much higher than it was today. >> well, i think the bio regulation was a big win for refiners but i think that was coincidence it happened on the day where the market went up.

certainly today was a great day for refiners. they don't need to use as much ethanol, they don't need to count on u.s. demand for gasoline ratcheting up through the rest of the decade and so it was a loss for the ethanol producers. but i don't think that it really should have that much impact on the price of fuel. if anything, the last place you want to sell product is usually in the spot market or the futures market and today gasoline was up nearly 10 cents despite the lower ethanol numbers. >> where do you see oil headed? >> i think we're probably in a range here somewhere between, oh, let's say, $50 and $62 or so. i still think there's a better chance that after the opec meeting we break down in that range and the real worry comes at the end of the summer when refiners go into maintenance and will have the highest labor day stocks ever for crude oil and lower runs and that means lower prices for crude and probably another turn lower in gas prices. but it's going to be a great

summer for refiners, no question about it. >> tom, thanks for phoning in appreciate it. >> take care. have a good weekend. >> tom kloza. we saw a tried higher in the airlines, a bounce finally. what's going on? >> i think there's trepidation these are real moves. tom's been on the show a number of times saying oil prices were probably going to stay low and they've been going up and all the people that know about oil because they're misunderstanding the speculative nature of this but also the fact that demand is coming in higher. so the risk reward to me is the upside. meanwhile, the trade is that the european majors and refiners have been outperforming the u.s. guys over 15% over the last couple months. i think that reverses. in fact i would be short royal dutch shell against long and exxon. put a spread trade on hedge your risk and buy the things that have underperformed. you might see outperformance. >> the data on crude getting cut in half what happens 12 months later, you only have four episodes going back to 1980.

it's not a huge sample size. two of those took place in the context of a recession, two of them took place in an expansion but when you look at what happened in the 12 months following, you basically had a 70% bounceback from crude, we've already seen almost 50 so we're pretty much there as far as what's typical historically speaking. but the s&p does very well. am 20% return 12 months after crude is halved and begins to make its comeback. however, when you look at the data, the worst place to play, the worst place to be believe it or not, utilities and energy stocks. they don't bounce nearly as well. energy earnings in the s&p 500 stayed down 30% a year later. the big winners are industrial and technology. those are two strong parts of the market. i think that's what you play. >> quick, i think steve would agree with this. i think tom just mentioned the margins in refiner. test sora had a funky day today. stock hasn't been able to make new highs. tesoro is the first, valero the second pick. >> your favorite.

>> both of them. i would go refiners or service names. so refiners are up 20%, service names are up 15%. up next what do these three men have in common? one hint they're all rich and they've all trade to bet against the bond market and lost. behind the latest billionaire investor who says bonds are the next big short after this break. plus, don't look now, be the u.s. is trailing germany by one of its widest margins since 1955. could this mean we may be on the verge of the next great catchup trade? a look at the chart you need to see. that's next. say neversettle. t-mobile agrees. never settle for verizon's overpriced gimmicks. try the un-carrier risk-free for 14 days you'll love it, or we'll pay for you to go back.

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big day for human that kicking off for top trade tonight. the stock spiking 16% after the "wall street journal" reported the company is working with goldman on a possible sale. we should also note the move in the rest of the health care stock, cigna, eli lilly etna hitting a 52-week high. >> as soon as this thing stopped twading the whole thing to your point, the whole complex started trading the same way. this is going to be a spot where people look for future gains so usually you fake these type of moves but i would say this is going to create a real rapid

fire through the whole space. i think you're okay to stay long all of them and you have to look at who has that exposure. medicare advantage? that's why human that is the name. >> a couple weeks ago it was aetna/humana or aetna/cigna as the compensation. >> aetna has been the most vocal in being involved in the medicare business. this is getting hold of the baby boomers. it's why this sector has been so defensive and interesting, why it's so ripe for takeover. i think aetna will be the acquire and you have to be careful because valuations -- it's not like these stocks haven't run. you have to be careful what they pay. >> what do you think jb.b.? >> this is going to be a drug-by-drug situation and you have to expect there will be a lot of dispersion so i think you want to focus on stories like that individually speaking and you never want to just look at the entire thing and figure you'll get the upside. >> at the same time everything exploded once this report came out. so would you buy an achhmo' index?

>> health care was $40 all through last year traded down earlier this year and it seems like it's breaking out. you have a 9% short interest in the name so if you want to go double tension down, hospitals, ths. next up, not just the health care space heating up semiconductors getting lots of buy out chatter. chip maker altera close to being bought by intel for $15 million. the semiconductor index hitting its highest level since 22000, josh? >> 14-year high and when you think about this deal, it could be great for intel if they pay $15 billion, $16 billion like the rumors are indicating. the problem is it doesn't shore up their position in wireless which i think is what everyone will say the next day. let's say okay that's great, what do you want to do with telecom because they haven't scratched that itch.

but i think the whole sector has gone through a bit of a rerating after the other merger which is the biggest tech deal -- semiconduct ordeal of all time by double. so i think if this deal happens you'll look at the midcap names and see a lot of options, activity, and maybe even interest from activists. >> a name we talk about all the time annex pi. >> new high today again. >> we forgot about how it merged with free scale. so look at these deals that are current but nvidia quietly up 10% year to date. they have a lot of things going on, the connected car, connected house, they're fighting for your living room, they have a set top box. nvidia could be taken out, too. >> i think the trade is intel. if you look at what we see in their aggressive move into this space, look at the stock, look at the chart. this stock probed down it started to test, now break through, the move today says investors want to buy this want to buy this growth believe it's getting the guys fast forward into a place in the chip space they have not been. >> intel feels like it's run up and will sell the news. >> it's happened so many times.

i want to start believing in qualcomm. i know their business is challenged. we've seen that since last summer but you finally have some tail winds for the name not least of which jana partners, accelerated stock buyback, they have $30 billion in cash sitting around. the company makes sense for reasons. that said, the stock can't get out of its own way. with that said i think you have to give a shot to qualcomm on the long side. next up, another billionaire investor making the call to bet against treasuries. paul singer arguing now is the time to short u.s. treasuries and other developed government bonds in a letter issued at the end of april, he speaks against betting against bonds tied to the u.s. uk and japanese governments as the so-called bigger short. he follows the likes of bond king bill gross. >> all these guys they'll be right at song point. everybody's been saying the same thing. look at where ten years traded up to and seemingly stopped within a couple basis points.

we talked about the risk range being 185 on the down side. i still think rates go down. they will be right at some point. i don't think they'll be right this year, though. >> the timing is -- this trade is tricky. >> well that's the only thing that matters is the timing. especially when you're responsible for negative carry, the kiss of death if you're leveraging which a lot of people would do on a treasury bet. so you're right, if you don't have the timing right everything else is dinner conversation. >> a lot of these guys would be doing it. if you look at where you play this thing, i think we saw an adjustment two to three weeks ago where people were freaking out. not that. i think the ten year has a base at 2% so if you're trading the tbt, this to me is somewhere around $46 is where you want to look at this. if you get the rates down to two bucks -- 2% i should say, that's where you want to own it. >> the inverse treasury etf.

>> yes. you would buy buying rates are going higher. >> we have a drop for deckers down 4%. >> deckers is a name we talk about a loath. decker is probably at this level down 25% year to date could be a takeout target. >> deckers and shearling flip-flops. >> which you will, steve, right. >> drop for abercrombie & fitch. the. >> the company hasn't been the same since -- it's amazing since he stopped taking his shirt off. >> i put on weight. >> disaster. there stock feels as though it wants to push down towards 15 bucks. >> speaking of putting on weight, big lots down 3%. >> big lots had a big fall after announcing first quarter numbers. they beat same store sales but the quarter is starting slow

despite the fact that they raised the bottom end of a full year guidance. not a place i shop but maybe i should. >> and a pop for shake shack, up 9%. >> shack was feasting today. >> feasting? >> i think he said feasting. >> bee sting. >> oh bee sting. >> trader chat. stock fell very hard, kissed near a hundred but it never got back to the rising 50-day. didn't even give you the chance. i've not sold. i eat volatility for dinner. >> along with a shackburger. >> bee sting. >> and the robot track star, move over runners, m.i.t.'s cheetah robot can jump over hurdles as high as 15 inches. first being dubbed the fastest legged robot that could run on a high-speed treadmill, the cheetah is the first of its kind to maneuver around obstacles on its own. according to m.i.t. scientist, the animal appears to be on the fast track to outrun real life

cheetahs. >> that's nightmare fuel right there. >> that's like a guy on the triathlon course. >> ironman. >> why? why do you have to make a robot that jumps over 15-inch blocks. >> why do play "mr. roboto" by styx? dennis deyoung, you can do better than that. >> the only song worse -- and i think tim would agree -- "we build this city on rock and roll." >> jeffson starship. >> do the outro. >> traders are piling into europe. >> now is the time we dance. >> but could that set the table for a huge move higher for u.s. stocks? and later in the hour could asco lead the bio tech sector to new highs? the secret sign that says big gains are right around the corner when "fast money" returns.

time for our chart of the day. germany's market is far outperforming the u.s. market. the dax is up 6% versus the s&p which is up 2%. it's the third-worst underperformance in 55 years and when the u.s. lags germany in

the first six months of the year u.s. stocks tend to rally the rest of the year. in fact, looking at the 11 worst underperformances, the s&p has actually finished the year strongly 100% of the time and gained an average of 11%. tom lee at fundstrat says this leaves us for the ultimate catch-up trade. yay or nay? >> i disagreement some this is catch up but it's not in currency terms so if you look in the hedged version, germany hasn't outperformed that significantly. germany with earnings momentum and the weaker currency will continue to outperform. >> i'll agree with tim and disagree with tom and i read what he had to say and i appreciate it with but i think if you broaden this discussion out and look at all developed markets outside of the u.s., the data is clear, you basically have these regimes where foreign stocks outperform u.s. stocks 47% of the time. is when foreign stocks are

outperforming the u.s. it can last for a long time an average of three to five years and the rate of outperformance, the compound annual growth rate is something like 8.5% better. so you want to keep both markets. i don't think you want to dump your international holdings because they've been winners over the first few months of the year. >> you like both. >> i think that's the right thing to do. >> time for the final trade. tim seymour? >> there's -- apparently there's a hockey game tonight in new york city. game seven at the world's most famous arena. it will be a war. rangers will do it what they always do in game seven but we'll see what happened. the king always trumps the bishop. remember that. free court mac, buy it. >> knight jumps queen. nvidia up 10% year to date. i think you'll see a lot of action going forward. it's not run its course yet. nvidia. >> you sunk my battleship. i don't know where we're going with these. stocks going to 60 buy it. >> guy? >> like the way coors traded

today. nice day, kors. ranger hockey tonight. if you're not watching ranger hockey i don't know who you are. >> i'm not watching ranger hockey. >> that speaks volumes. >> i don't know who you are. >> see you back here monday at 5:00. don't move "options action starts s" starts right after this break. see you then. we live in a pick and choose world. choose choose choose. but at bedtime? ...why settle for this? enter sleep number... don't miss the memorial day special edition mattress with sleepiq technology. sleepiq tells you how well you slept and what adjustments you can make. you like the bed soft. he's more hardcore. so your sleep goes from good to great to wow! now we can all choose amazing sleep, only at a sleep number store. save $500 on the memorial day special

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we are live at the nasdaq market site in new york city. dan nathan is back did you miss us? >> yup. >> of course he did. dan and the rest of the guys are getting ready, here's what sells coming up. >> let's make a deal! >> that's what some traders think gm is about to say and we'll explain how you can cash in. and is it time to get out of oil stocks? >> stay away from the cans! >> one energy name could see serious downside ahead. we'll tell you which one. plus, what do apple and biotech stocks have in common? >>. ♪ absolutely nothing ♪ >> that's what we thought, too, until we saw this crazy chart. we'll tell you what it means for your money. the action begins right now.