job number that was 150, andion ion don't know what this market wants. does it want stronger economic data? >> i don't know what it wants. >> really appreciate it. that does it for us on "closing bell." "fast money" starts right now with melissa lee and the gang. >> thank you. i'm melissa lee. our traders on the desk of tim seymour -- one of our analysts says a global recession is not far away. twitter, a tough analyst is downgrading the stock. the man behind that call and why he's sounding the alarm on that call. the dow sliding triple digits volatility spiking, oil tanking

as the bond route remains front and center. is this just the start of more pain to come? of course the backdrop is a jobs report tomorrow. tim. >> and opec. add in the fact that we had a rates adjustment about a month ago. is that what this is? i would say if you see all european bond market moving in unison it's more of an adjustment. higher rates aren't good for a the love stocks lot of stocks. >> we -- >> this is a really interesting day, you had multiple things going on. in the morning we had a huge big german bond selloff and a rip back when perhaps the ecb should

not be in there. and the bond selloff stopped in the u.s. if the imf is saying the economy is not that great, maybe we shouldn't own stocks. that's when everything went down. then in the afternoon we had the problems with greece, that they were going to bundle the payment. >> we also saw anticipation of more volatility later this month? >> yeah. we saw a pretty significant jump in both volatility real and implied volatility. the actual versus some of the movements that we've seen in the past ten days dan, something like that has been very back and forth. we've had 220 point down days 180 point up days.

back and forth. those kind of moves are pushing you back mel, towards a 16 vix. whether or not we hold it a very big trade went off in the vix again. we call it a call stupid. >> what did you call mel? >> a call stupid. >> but a call stupid is when they buy one strike and buy the strike above it. they're not hedging. they're getting double long. it's kind of stupid because could you just buy one of those two strikes. you don't have to buy them both. >> should i be scared? that's what i want to know. if i'm sitting at home and markets are close to record highs and i've invested -- >> no. when you think about europe it's come off a little bit and we've had these dollar moves. but we're really in range. the s&p don't show a whole lot of fear. when doc talks about upside buying in the vix but there's nothing going on in the u.s. other than a quicker than

expected rate increase that i think is going to cause the s&p to drop in a significant manner any time soon. >> whoa whoa! >> go. >> you think there is a significant rate increase coming? >> no, i this i there's nothing other than that here in the u.s. that's going to cause a significant downdraft in the near future. >> stronger than jobs report tomorrow. what happens to stocks? >> they sell off. i don't believe that people are concerned about lower growth. i think they're worried about the fed. >> you agree? >> i agree. >> you agree? >> i agree. but i don't think it's going to a 1% or 2% thing. >> let's go to kate kelly. >> dow jones just out with a report that the s.e.c. has opened multiple investigations into activist hedge funds. the question here whether or not these hedge fund formed alliances without making

disclosure to property authorities. if that's the case it could be a violation of federal securities laws. we do know there are multiple investigations per dow jones and that requests for information have been sent to these hedge funds, melissa. we'll keep you updated as this unfolds. >> what would be in question? would it be the timing of when these hedge funds got in their position? were they colluding prior to -- >> i think that's a question. if you're going to form an investment group and taking a substantial stake in a company, more than 5% for instance you need to disclose you're part of a group and make sure the proper disclosures are made. otherwise you may have a strong impact on market prices as any major investor would, even acting on their own. especially if you have two and it's a material investment, that can move the needle for other participants. there's a requirement that there

not be alliances that don't pass muster according to federal rules. >> are there any cases that come to mind? >> i'm hesitant to name names on air. i think for example a bill akerman pairing up to buy pharmaceuticals and made decent money for akerman, even though the deal he envisioned didn't come through. there was questions with what he was doing with valiant and whether or not pairing up with him was appropriate. he hired an ex-enforcement chief of the s.e.c. to make sure it was lawful. you see groups of hedge funds, maybe where you have an alumnus of one hedge fund teaming up with a former employer.

and you see names like yum. i see no suggestion there's a group involvement here but dan loeb, keith spacemeister both getting involved at the same time makes you think. >> there's a very fine line. it's different when you have groups of investors with the same view. it happens all the time on the bond market where you have some kind of attack against a creditor and that's almost allowed and encouraged. on the stock side it's seen almost as a no-no. a lot of these firms, they start whispering to their friends, i don't think that's wrong. they have positions that are out there and they've made them

public. >> it will be interesting whether or not this will put a chill on activist investing. >> all we have is the headlines. to the extent activists now start to pull back a bit and aren't so forth coming a lot of these stocks are trading on the fact that there's activists or activists expected to come in. that's the bid, that's the cushion under some of these stocks. if that starts to disappear, it's one more pillar under this market. >> the big question will this cartel cut its production or risk keeping prices lower for longer in an attempt to squeeze u.s. great to have you with us. when i spoke to you last week you didn't think there would be any changes to the target output. so what are you expecting now? >> we expect that they're going to roll over the 30 million

barrel production quoteaquota. the saudi oil minister are extremely confident about an increased demand. there's no expectation of a cut. it was really a confidence game today. >> what happens to oil when everything is kept the same tomorrow? >> well here's the thing. i think there's an expectation in the market that there's going to be no cut. this comes on a week of not particularly great date aa, the inventory data wasn't great. could we be a couple dollars lower? sure. what would be a real negative shock would be any announcement they're raising the output ceiling. that would be the real bearish story you'd want to watch for right now. >> helima croft, thank you very much. >> you had saudi arabia raising

sales prices to asia today. the second thing for tomorrow we have is the rate count. remember last friday we had a big oil price spike when the rig count actually came down a lot more than people expected. so that's something to watch tomorrow afternoon. i think the opec at this point is likely a non-event. >> all in all the risk goes to the down side? >> that's the prevailing view. it eerily similar to the opec meeting in november where volatility has collapsed going into this number. we're now 17 18 percentage points where we were back in march. to me this is a little bit of a scary setup because too much is expected to be somewhat benign and you could have a risk if anything, to have things be worse, which means prices to fall out of bed even more. the inventory data is interesting. a lot of the refiners have fresh supply, they've been chewing up supplies. it seems demand is better.

i've said all along oil prices are not going lower than 55 on brent. >> coming up casino why you need to cash out of the sector right now. and two blockbuster drugs to hit the market in the fight against high cholesterol. and later, one hj fund manager has what bombshell prediction that could send stocks into freefall.

macau. welcome back everybody. we are starting to get some context as to how big a massive data breach has been against the u.s. government. previously we knew that the office of personnel management had been hand. they suspected it was chinese hackers at the time. however, the scale and the scope of this particular event is apparently much larger than originally thought. as a matter of fact one u.s. official cited by reuters -- associated press and reuters both reporting on this story -- are describing this as one of the largest thefts of u.s. government data ever.

associated press reports that the obama administration is scrambling to assess the impact of this much bigger than thought data breach. the agency basically at this point takes care of employee records. however, several u.s. officials quoted by these news agencies are saying that this could affect every single u.s. government agency. so we're getting some scope as to how big that hack attack actually has been. the fbi giving a statement a few moments ago saying the fbi is working with our interagency partners to investigate this matter. we take all potential threats to public and private sector systems seriously and we'll continue to investigate andd accountable those in cyberspace. it may affect every single government agency. back to you. >> wow. thank you for that.

>> today or yesterday there was news that it had a partnership with visa. where would you go in the space? >> i'm going to go to the same place pete went yesterday and that was fire eye but palo alto networks, got to like that one as well and the security firm you guys talked with that was trying to fish for data amongst the "fast money" traders. can you go to any of those three. >> the big macau casinos picking up top trades. jpmorgan saying the recent underperformance in wynn makes it buying opportunity. tim, this is a sector you evacuated a while ago. >> it is.

a 6.2% sequential improvement, down 37%, better than 39%. is this the time? i'm not sure you need to jump in now. i think the comps are going to be better two, three months out. you have wynn which probably looks very cheap. melcro crown. >> twitter getting a downgrade today from evercore sighting growth fears in user and engagement theories. this comes on the back of well known twit are shareholder chris sacca. here's what he told the "closing bell" yesterday. >> i don't see the stock going lower than where it is today. it has too much potential for advertising. microsoft, fable, google with all want to own this company. we're at a floor now.

i'm interested in this stock being two, three times more valuable. ken, great to you have with us. this seemed to be a relative compare. you like facebook better. competitively facebook is better so you downgrade twitter. is that what it is? >> no. we have been arguing that scale and differentiation are very important. twitter is not as differentiated. the matrix are not super compelling. when you switch to the product side of things that's where it gets muddy. when you look at facebook they're doing some extremely interesting things and coming not just to advisers but

publishers that that's where their content should really exist. i think when you start to increase the speed in which people can view that content, the idea of linking outside of facebook to other places starts to seem like a drag. so that was exciting. i think that also paves the way into video in a very big way. that's exactly where twitter should be going, convincing publishers to bring a lot of that curated content into that platform. >> you had some interesting stats in terms of facebook being able to keep that person on facebook, whether it be millennials going there, it's 61% of millennials go to facebook that's their primary source as opposed to 14% on twitter? >> 85% of mobile is occurring on fabds facebook. that's where publishers are going to want to be. >> ken, what you're really talking about is an execution of twitter they could do all the

things that facebook are doing or something new. i guess the question is does management need to change? >> well on that topic i think that we've given them a lot of benefit of the doubt over the last few years thinking about it's only execution, the dream is there and dreaming the dream with them. i think after the last quarter, it got a lot harder to make that justification. i felt more like we were defending as opposed to looking at the facts. why are they having trouble transitioning? when we drew the comparison with facebook, a few of those answers became clear. >> do you agree with chris sacca about there being a floor under the stock? >> i don't. we are in a time when a lot of market valuations private or public -- twitter is probably

trading on an adjustment basis with facebook. if you do look on something closer to gap, i feel like there's not a lot of floor to argue on some of these names. so i think that it's you know it really will -- we'll have to see. >> ken, thanks for stopping by. buy on facebook hold on twitter. you agree with those calls? >> i definitely agree with the buy on facebook. i think twitter -- i might even be a buyer at these levels. i think we've spent time on this desk dan talked about it last week. $35, $36 on twitter. pair i peer periscoping, which is something

we like to do on this show. >> jump on periscope. what you see will rock your world. and that's no hype. in the meantime here's what else is coming on "fast." >> you're in luck we've got three biotech stocks that could be on the verge of releasing a new cholesterol drug. plus the last time this international man of mystery was on "fast," he said the dollar was surge and was he right. now he's got an even bigger prediction and it could spell doom for stocks. th the hightest standard of animal care in the world, our whales are healthy. they're thriving. i wouldn't work here if they weren't. and government research shows they live just as long as whales in the wild. caring for these whales, we have a great responsibility to get that right. and we take it very seriously. because we love them. and we know you love them too.

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three biotech heavyweights set to meet with the fda to gain approval for drugs. meg? >> these are some of the biggest drugs in these companies' pipelines. they're for cholesterol. it's a class of drugs known as psck-9 inhibitors. they could work for people for who statins don't work well or for patients who can't tolerate those. analysts estimate this is maybe 6 million patients in the united

states who could benefit from these drugs. the fda advisory panel meets to discuss these two different drugs. they really are neck and neck from amgen and regeneron. it's widely expected they'll get approved over the summer. >> why do statins become less effective in people and could these drugs end up replace statins? >> some people get side effects with statins. some just doesn't get to goal with lowering their ldl, bad cholesterol enough.

that changes the game when you have these pills as opposed to injections. we don't have data yet in hour these drugs do in preventing those events. that could broaden the patient population. peak sales estimates for these drugs, $5 billion a year but it could initially be slower uptake. it's better for inspirion. >> dr. j. biotech, where do you go? >> regenorron. another all-time high today. stock is up from $25 to $520. you wanted performance that's

apple-like performance, this company has done it. >> albert edwards will break his silence in his first televised interview in years. a top analyst will explain why an even bigger deal could be on the horizon. stay tuned. that is mobile, it is you. real madrid have about 450 million fans. we're trying to give them all the feeling of being at the stadium. the microsoft cloud gives us the scalability to communicate exactly the content that people want to see. it will help people connect to their passion of living real madrid.

cate stocks getting hit hard with all major averages down nearly 1%, crude falling another 3% ahead of tomorrow's opec meeting. here's what's coming up -- merger talks, dish network and a deal could be coming soon. we have a top analyst who says an even bigger deal could be in the works. and walmart turning up the heat, the retail giant saying it will raise the temperature in the stores to make things for comfortable for employees. we'll bring you a special report. stocks plunging in today's session. if our next guest is right, we could be at the brink of a recession here in the united states.

raoul pal, it's always a pleasure to talk to you. >> great to talk to you. >> you think we're about to be in a recession? >> we're all in recession territory. many of the forward looking indicators and indicators such as retail sales and goods are in recession territory. generally the business cycle lasts about seven to eight years trough to trough. so it would expect to us have a trough in the business cycle sometimes in 2015 2016. i'm kind of thinking we're flirt with it now. >> it's not just the direction of the economic data, what really stood out to me in your latest newsletter when you found production and there were five consecutive declines and what happens after five consecutive

declines before or after? >> it means the probability is very high of a recession. if i take all of the data together the probability is very high that there is a recession coming or in a recession now. >> it did sound like you thought that the i.s.m. for may would come in at 50 or so. when it does hit 50 that's when the trouble starts you found? >> exactly. when the ism hits 50 you get something like an 85% chance of the s&p falling on average 19%. up get about a 65% chance of a recession. when it hits 46 then you get an 85% chance of recession. so when we're flirting with these levels you need to pay attention. when we do hit 50 in the ism, bad things can happen. >> what's your outlook for u.s. equities? >> my outlook is i'm still cautious. obviously the ism is still above

50. there's a chance we have another rally from here. my fear is the rolling volatility that keeps appearing in the foreign exchange markets and the bond market can roll over into the equity market and i think we need to be very cashes. volatility is still cheap. buy some down side hedges, not a bad idea. >> now, you did an interview, edwards hasn't done an interview in 20 years. here's what he told you about why japan could be in trouble. >> they bust at half a percent interest rates. authorities will hold it down for as long as possible. what i think they're trying to do is essentially take all the jgbs off the financial sector. they know when this yield gaps up to 3, 4% it will bankrupt --

it will destroy whoever's holding them. it's better that the bank of japan holds them and just monetizing it away than having a big public sector pension fund holding them. >> what the extrapolation in terms of the bank of japan has all the jgbs and monetizes them away? >> what it does do for me partly is take some of the risk out of the japanese system. they're still pretty beat and their share price has been beaten down. it does mean that the jgb market is concerning. we've seen bond markets getting rattled over the last week or so particularly in germany. when you see things like that for japan, it could be concerning because japan is so heavily in debt. >> what is the trade on that. >> it's two fold.

japan is trying to hold down interest rates. the yen could go to 1.30 1.35. some of the japanese stocks are looking like good buys and they could go higher. >> you say a blood bath lies ahead for oil. 42 is the lowest we saw this year. >> when i first came on the program, i forecast $40 oil, then i changed my forecast and thought it was going to $30 or $20. i think it's based on a strong dollar. if the dollar continues to rally, i think that it will continue to go lower, let alone oversupply issues. >> realvision if you want to see the rest of the albert edwards interview.

>> we said tonight volatility is underutilized. russell rallied into this move russ selection post with higher interest rates. that's the best play. >> there's two simple ways to play what he's talking about, which is being short yen. if they monetize the debt which they're pretty much already doing, the japanese yen is completely toast. then dxj, that's your hedge japanese stock, short the yen, long japanese stocks. >> when i said on the number tomorrow i don't see an outsize move, but when you think about what's going on here, and all of us have been doing this a long time, i have never seen the volatility across currencies and fixed income and everything other than equities in a non-crisis period that we're seeing right now. it's pretty much unprecedented. it does have to come home to

roost at some point. and u.s. equities cannot break out. we've seen every other major equity index outperform massively the u.s. here. i'm not sure what the catalyst is. at some point you have to see a 5% 10% correction. i don't think it's going to be on the fed meeting this week. >> i don't think it's going to be on the fed meeting. earlier this year we saw nothing but speed of change as far as the euro dollar and crude oil and many of us would say they were linked. stronger dollar weaker crude. i think we're going to see another one of those speed bumps coming up. >> reports swirl around t-mobile and dish network. one analyst says it will lead to an even bigger deal. stay tuned. hey, what are you doing?

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welcome back to "fast money." verifone systems beat on the top line. it says it's realigning its business. it did post weak guidance for

the current quarter, sending shares of the stock down nearly 2% in after hours. >> thank you so much. dish network and t-mobile val rallying on rumors they are going to merge, which doesn't come by a complete surprise. take a listen. >> i think we like what he's doing. he's built a brand not on of t-mobile but they're taking on thing about guys attacking the paying point to the consumer rollover data roaming. it's a pretty impressive turn around. >> if the deal goes through, our next guest says this could lead to an even bigger deal down the pike. managing director walter

piecyk joins me. >> who could buy? >> since the launch of this lte technology that's enabled mobile video, it really changed thing. it create as potential broadband competitor and enables video. if you look at some of the biggest players in video, these guys are interested in now pursuing the wireless market. if you look at this company combined, t-mobile is a great company, they're performing very well but they're short on that depth of spectrum. if you're comcast, time warner or john malone you've got larger as operationpirations you want to do with this product, taking what dish has combined with the infrastructure t-mobile has,

makes it more attractive to partner with. >> you have a couple companies that seem out of the box, microsoft and google. why would they be interested? >> things are changing. you look at google getting into google fbi tore make sure the broadband internet is getting built and ethernet is get deeg employed. google also announced project fi hey, i'm going to g wifi network first and rolling back to your network. if google could infuse more cash, it could ensure a better buildout of that business and provide more competition for the dominant issues the dominant carriers verizon and at&t.

>> you have another combination? >> t-mobile on its own can be an attractive acquisition target for the cable companies. if dish gets bought by t-mobile there's a very big chunk of spectrum that goes away. verizon does face competitive threats down the road. they're already providing faster speeds in many markets. they can cut prices even more, build out networks and provide true competition for verizon. >> where is sprint in all this? >> sprint has the best assets the deepest assets but right now we don't really know where masa sits in his dedication to the united states. the capital levels are very low. they're evaluating a new plan. they just did a network overall two years ago, they're evaluating a new network overall. the ceo was in japan a couple of weeks ago. we're all waiting to hear if and

when they're going to announce this new plan and most importantly how it's going to get funded. sprint's got the assets. maybe they need a capital inflation from the inflation -- infusion as well. >> what do you think? >> the fact that david faber says they've been in talk and there's momentum there, mel, we noticed and i bet dan did, too, strong put selling in dish puts strong call buying in calls basically since the spectrum auction ending. basically people were betting or knowing something was going on in that time frame all the way until we broke the news about it yesterday. >> in at&t there's also been call buying there. when this dtv deal is done i think people will think about it favorably as an asset. they're doing the right things

they've been first movers. a couple years ago they tried to buy t-mobile and that want able to happen. i think at&t sees the ground moving below its feet. i think walter makes a lot of good points. the industry is changing. it going to look massively different in a few years. as for sprint soft bank owns 80%, they got a lot of reasons to figure this out and i think it going to be a nontraditional partner. >> coming you, walmart is heating up literally, to keep its employees happy. what if there were only one kind of dog? then it would be easy to know everything about that one breed. but in fact, there are over three hundred breeds of dogs. because no one can be an expert in every one... an app powered by ibm watson

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can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim? for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. "options actions" is sponsored by think or swim. >> gap reporting overall same store sales fell 1% which was better than the 2% decline than analysts had expected. its namesake dropped 6%. the loan bright spot old navy stores up 6% in may. a little change in after-hours trading. it did pop on this news. >> walmart is pulling out all the stops, turning up the heat

to keep it's employees happy. courtney. >> hi there, melissa. that's right, this three-day event is known locally as shareholders. so far most of the discussions and announcements walmart has made is centered around its u.s. employees. in addition to the wage increases that went into effect in april, it is also increases the waging for its store managers. depending on what department it will be an increase of about $1 to $3 per hour. both those manager and non-manager wage increases were already baked into the guidance that walmart gave on may 19th on its earnings day and calls. it is also relaxing its dress code allowing employees to wear black denim pant and khaki denim pants, in addition to the khaki trousers blue denim and t-shirts could be acceptable if you have one of those jobs that's a bit more labor

intensive. walmart is also going to increase the temperature in its stores after employees have complained they're too cold. that's certainly that walmart actually does from its headquarters, control the store temperatures. tomorrow is really the big show. 14,000 walmart employees from around the world and shareholders are going to file into the bud walton arena at the university of arkansas. it begins at 8:30 a.m. eastern time, goes until 12:30 p.m. there are eight proposals on the proxy this year four from the company, and four from shareholders. company proposals are expected to go through, shareholder proposals are not. remember, the walton family has the controlling stake of the share. it's always very very hard for anyone else to ever get anything through on a shareholder meeting because of the walton family say. >> thank you. since walmart is working so hard to keep its employees happy, earlier this hour we did a pair periscope to show you how we

keep our traders here. we have an instant preplay coming up. >> dan, you say walmart is hot today? >> they are hot today. the stock is down 14% on the year and down 18% from the all-time highs it made back in january, but today for the second straight day, call volume in july the july 75s in particular were pretty active. 5,000 traded. 17,000 of them were bought yesterday. when you think about it let's look at the two-year chart here. the stock has been in a really well-defined range between 80 and 70 here. it did have this breakout earlier in the year. it's failed, it's been a very very consistent downtrend and now it's just broken below this level that's been really, really big support between the low 70s and 75 over the last two years. i just want to break it out and really show that range on a longer period of time. this really goes to show you how important from a purely technical basis the low 70s or $70 is for walmart.

the company obviously is having their share of problems. financially they need to get things together and get investors back on board, not just employees. >> you like walmart, don't you? >> i do because of their free shipping they're having now and also the fact that it is $70, $72, very very big support. i'm happy i can wear a pant suit in there now. >> i'd like to see you in full denim suit. >> we have a news alert on vodafones. >> vodafones, popping in after hours trading, vode a phones is said to be discussing options including with liberty global. the talks between the two are informal, very early stage and that agreement may not be reached. nonetheless, based on this report, shares of vodafone are

up and liberty global up as well. >> we're talking about how interesting the combinations are becoming now. >> vodafone was in the throes of a lot of interesting conversations. the stock has had a very good run. liberty global is a stock all about mma accretion. go roam sleep in sleep out star gaze dream big wander more care less beat sunrise chase sunset do it all. on us.

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welcome back. we mentioned earlier that walmart is doing more to keep employees happy. we wanted to show you what we do to keep our traders happy. so in case you missed it on periscope, here's an instant replay of tim nailing some tough yoga moves. that's one excellent tree pose and yoga pose. he didn't throw his back out yet. be sure to follow at cnbc "fast

money" on periscope. you do that every night? >> i do. i wasn't feeling puff -- >> was it the lululemon pants you had on? >> time to go around the horn. >> own the iwm and outright to hedge your portfolio. >> air gas, arg, up side call buying in this name. decided to get a little gassy. >> whoa. >> i'm going to go with the short hyg. it a name i've shorted in the past. in this environment, you have low liquidity, rising rates and if you don't have rising rates, the economy is getting worse, which means there could be defaults in this sector lower oil prices sell hyg. >> these guys were talking about the casinos, especially macau. when you look at the three-day

rallies, it feels a lot like a short squeeze. i don't think much has changed other than short-term sentiment. lvi, break of 50 in july. >> see you back here tomorrow for more my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome welcome. my job is not to just entertain, but to put it in context. call me or tweet me. fraught, that's right, fraught. this market seems fraught for the moment because of the potential for a very tough day tomorrow. which is why we got hammered