policy statement at 2:00 eastern time followed by a press conference possible we get an interest rate hike the first of nine years. most say no. >> there can always be hints. >> big fed show tomorrow. thanks for watching. congratulations, ladies. "closing bell" starts right now. hi welcome to "closing bell," i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. >> i'm bill griffeth up here at cnbc headquarters. i'll be on nightly business report. a fed-fueled rally in the market today. janet yellen does not speak until tomorrow at this time as a matter of fact. we'll break down what's behind this news. >> today looks like the mirror image of what we saw in markets yesterday. we are also watching matchmaking in the managed care space. takeover talks causing

volatility in shares of big health insurers. could one be left without a suitor? >> it's like musical chairs. four chairs, five players, one will be left out unless you get a three-way deal. i don't know. >> can't rule anything out in these markets. >> goldman sachs looking to enter the consumer loan business. is this the beginning of a strategic shift for that long-time financial giant? we've got a top wall street analyst to give us his take. >> look out ups and fedex. amazon is working on a new way to deliver packages. i love what is unique about this. >> they are becoming nuanced in the packaging part of the delivery system for online shopping. it's fascinating to watch that. i've said fascinating twice in this program and it's only a

minute and a half old. we have peter anderson chief investment officer with congress wealth management. jonathan corpena. good to have you with us today. and rick santelli from chicago. the last few times the fed has met, we've seen a rally for the markets. are they getting ahead here? >> i think we are starting to see anxious investors come into this market. we've been watching the greece headlines since last week and how that's been adding momentum to our markets. not a much more than we've been focusing on. yes there's m&a activity. the data on the calendar is what we've been looking for. how the market reacts. it's i going to come from the wording coming out of washington. >> is this a buy the rumor?

>> maybe it's fed fatigue. we've been through this so many times. i think we have been rallying appropriately. finally, i think we are digesting the fact sooner or later rates will be raised. it's not a bad thing. hints about a stronger economy. if it's done art flishgs we will continue to have this rally. >> what do you think about that? stocks rallying bonds up a little bit as well today? >> i would like to say maybe it was strong permits, but that doesn't fit the rally that pushed rates down. >> housing permits at a seven-day high today. >> also keep in mind it's multifamily. nothing wrong with multifamily, but the god of the economies and god of economics, if he wanted what was best for the economy

and cottage industries, would rather pick single family dwellings. maybe it has nothing to do with the fed. i personally think it does a little. i think it's very normal for people to trade markets in ranges. to have a very significant amount of priority to go onto where markets settled at the end of last year whether it's 2.17 or where the dow was this morning basically when it opened for s&p not far behind. there's a lot of people that like trading that range in the equity markets. that could be a piece of it. i don't know how much you could read into this. if you put lie detectors on every fomc chairman and asked every question under the sun, when you were done i don't know would you know more than we know now. >> jonathan how much is a market of stocks versus the stock market versus the correlation we've seen with the

fed in years past? is something different this time? >> i don't think there is something different. now investors have scaled things back a little bit. i think investors pulled back from the macrosense. looking more at individual stocks. >> what does that mean in terms of the flows we are seeing? if we can't count on the obvious correlations, where does that leave us? >> to a very quiet summer. we'll get through tomorrow and end of the quarter coming up. we are not going to get a lot of information tomorrow. investors will have a reason to pull out of this market. take a step back and watch how things unfold. we are not going to see a lot of momentum until september why. do anything now? >> yesterday everybody was wringing their hands over greece. that was part of the big sell-off. today we are rallying. greece was a topic of

conversation during josh earnest's white house news conference. >> the optimism i spresd yesterday is consistent with the optimism we have expressed over the last several weeks. about the ability of all the parties to resolve their differences in a way that doesn't contribute undue instability to the financial markets. >> parties being europe and the greek officials. i know you were early on getting into europe and european stocks. does this give you pause or do you buy on the dips here? >> with moderation always with moderation diversified portfolios, that's the theme here. with moderation dip your toe into european markets. especially with that tape you just played. that's showing that the saber-rattling continues. if you look at this big picture,

what is the probability that greece really would exit from the euro union? i think that answer is most likely zero. >> it's 55%, could be a greek accident was said today. >> for people like that if you disagree with them and you have some conviction this would be the time to buy into it a contrarian play. if you think most people are actually saying that greece will exit, play that out and see how that would play in the world markets. i think would you have a very sad scenario that really isn't realistic. >> you think despite what happens in that situation, united rental and jc penney are two names investors can find in this market? >> i would like to credit ourselves we are smart. sometimes there is school yard

logic. united rentals is down because it has 10% exposure to the oil industry. it has been downgraded by the sell side. if yellen comes out with hints the economy is improving, a company like uri plays into an improving economy. that's where lock yij isgic is lopsided. >> don't you think that would be a better purveyor of the status of the economy an flippant comment by janet yellen? they would know the fundamentals. i don't think we are going to find the answers to the fundamentals in the fed comments. >> we'll ask her tomorrow if they are overvalued. >> tell her josh earnest probably has a place helping to craft fed statements in the future. >> you got it. thank you, gentlemen. shares of health care providers unitedhealth and aetna moving higher on reports those

companies are in talks about a possible merger. i love this stuff going on here. cigna shares are pulling back slightly after surging yesterday afternoon on the news it is a takeover target by anthem. >> all this news happening after initial reports humana was putting itself up for sale. joining us our analyst from morningstar. which direction do you think this is going? where do you think the most value would be created in a tie-up here? >> a lot of this is going to happen because there's pressured opting environment for all players moving forward. with affordable care act, greater competition, which will extend over the next five years, i expect to create value. where i see most activity will lie in the realm of anthem buying one of the smaller below it. cigna, humana or aetna as the

prime targets. >> that's where you see the tie-ups. who gets left out, anybody? >> that leaves unitedhealth care out. that company is positioned very well. it's the largest insurer in the u.s. and has the most diverse membership base. the management team executed very well over the last several years. i expect that to continue. when you look at the tie-ups in the industry and look at which companies need to become bigger more diversified, you are looking at humana aetna and cigna as being the prime targets. i wouldn't be surprised to see a merger between two out of three of them or one get bought by anthem or unitedhealth care down the line. >> this is so affected by what's happening with medicare affordable care act, by a number of factors that touch the lives of everyday americans. to what extent do you think the government we know has been a little bit hesitant when it comes to large industry tie-ups, especially in this space? could it step in and try to hold

any of these mergers? >> you could see pushback here. maybe not necessarily for a total deal. you could see something happen in terms of certain regions of the u.s. or states. depending which companies acquire each other. when i take a look at the industry at a whole competitively, what i'm looking at are companies that need to become bigger more efficient and priced better within the market. the government realizes that. there is no single pair system here if the u.s. the government may see these firms as de facto single pair. greater efficiency pricing power for u.s. consumers. >> is it too late to buy any of these guys? has enough premium been put in to make it less attractive? >> definitely. all five are most likely materially overvalued at this point. investors would be cautious in terms of making new positions. if you are looking to get involved with a sector, i would

point you to anthem and unitedhealth care being the two key ones to watch and own. >> thanks. these markets are rallying. we do have that big fed meeting tomorrow. we'll see how much that is playing into it. dow is 118 points. above 17,900. s&p up 12 nasdaq adding 30. when we come back disrupting main street banks. goldman stacks want to lend consumers money online. will they click? a top bank analyst says the bold move may pay off. >> twitter turning around just in the last few minutes. going green finally. we'll break down this triple day move here. it's been a tough one since dick costolo announced his resignation.

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a lot of green. twitter joining that. the company could be a takeover target. earlier in the session the stock was lower after mkm partners downgraded it to neutral from buy. twitter has fallen sharply. the shares have not kept their gains on this speculation about a potential sale to a larger company since costolo's accepting down first announced. >> we know how ubiquitous twitter has become. they did not do a good job monetizing that as much as facebook did. they did a wonderful job of

finding ways to change the format which a lot of us were not happy with. we got used to it. found ways to get those ads in there twitter has not done that. i guess the fear is would it be still as ubiquitous if they were to made ads more prevalent on the site. >> right. there's been coverage of anthony noto. somebody who built a lot of trust with investors when it comes to twitter. is he a product guy and a product that needs to be tweaked, where does that leave the company? >> we'll see what happens here. stock up a nickel. goldman sachs may be moving its sites from a financial firm offering consumer loans through a website or app. >> is this new venture going to pay off for the banking giant? joining us is analyst jeff harte from sandler o'neill. you like this idea. why? >> there's potential here. it's important to remember they are assessing an opportunity.

they are not necessarily going full speed ahead here. they have advantages. things like funding, over $80 billion of deposits to make this work. technology and risk management have to work. they have challenges. they'll have to build a brand here. they don't have a lot of experience managing consumer credit. you put all that together. it comes down to an economic decision. regulatory changes have really weighed on big bank roes. goldman sachs is the best in class investment bank out there. they are boasting 12% roes. if you look at discover or jpmorgan's credit card segment, they are generating 20% plus roe. that's a big delta where leverage can't come back regulators changed a lot of things. makes a lot of sense. >> it's interesting to read through the details and try to

guess where goldman is going. in some ways you envision a world where somebody pulls out a card and says i've got a goldman line of credit i'm drawing upon as opposed to more traditional credit card product. why the difference? why would they be extending lines of credit instead of more typical revolving credit? what is that user experience going to be like? >> it will be interesting to see how it plays out. this is an incremental change. it's going to incrementally add to assets if they follow through with it. it's not a wholesale change. goldman will be pro dominantly investment bank. this is one of the ways you can adjust to get those roes back up in a tough regulatory environment. i would not be thinking of goldman going against bank of america or big finance companies as a main business line. this is going to be a small offshoot that may generate

positive returns for them. >> you don't see this as a diluting of the brand? >> depends how you go about doing it. if they are advertising credit cards and trying to become the next capital one, i would not be as crazy about it. this is going to be something that is going to be heavily technology dependent. it's going to be specific loans on the side. i don't see it diluting the brand too much. they'll have to do brand building. when you hear goldman sachs you think of ipos and m&a. >> the way they could use an app or technology a way it doesn't feel so bargain basement but have luxury premium feel about it. do you think that's what they are going for?

>> possibly. technology has been something that's been ahead of the curve on. brought in a lot of deposits. it should be sticky and low cost. now they have those, you have to find a place to put them to use. if you can marry it with that technological edge it's got some potential. we'll see if they do go full speed forward. the return variance between the businesses is too great to ignore. >> shares up for goldman about 0.75%. thanks to see you. >> goldman jumping into the online lending bandwagon. what ups is up to later on the show. 40 minutes left with the trading session with a rally under way. 109 in the industrial average. s&p up 11. the nasdaq today up 26 points.

coming up the fed kicking of its two-day meeting on rates and inflation may not be a huge threat today. steve liesman will tell us what could trigger it. >> gap shares rising on news of the job cuts and store closure we told you about. we'll hear from the ceo if a rare interview.

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gap shares on the rise after the retailer announced 250 job cuts 175 store closures. art peck sat down with courtney reagan for his first broadcast interview since taking the company's reins. more about this rare interview. good job, courtney. >> thank you, bill. art peck has only been the ceo of gap four months. he's been with the retailers for a decade. he isn't afraid to make bold, decisive decisions to get the store back on track. he's very focused on fixing the product and price, pulling back on deep promotional levels particularly at gap and banana republic. at the same time, he is focused on the value proposition of old navy and outlet business. he is not surprised to see

competitors jump onto that space. >> it's a value expression of our brands a customer who may not want to participate in the full price brand. it is a very good business and one we are committed to. the move we are seeing there right now, a little bit is old navy's success then the rush towards the off price space. i think it illustrates the importance in this world today that you need to have a value component to whatever your business is. you need to have a value component. the customers expect that. >> gap brands serve all income tier tiers. peck characterizes today's consumer as smart but cautious, making sure they are getting the most for their money as long as there is perceived value in return. old navy doing the best of its brands most consistently delivering for the customers.

now it's up to peck to take those learnings and move the entire company forward. >> we mentioned the 250 job cuts. those are in the corporate offices. how many full and part-time jobs are lost as a result of that? >> what they did say about that while not releasing the stores right now, they want to have those conversations directly with the stores and employees it affects first, they will do their best to redeploy staff, perhaps in other stores. maybe if there is a job at headquarters that could work for them. they haven't detailed numbers, but will try to redeploy as best they can. they said they are hiring for the field. this is something to right size their brand. there were stores that hadn't been paid attention to in a long time that should have been closed some time ago. as far as number of employees,

we don't know exactly and hope many will be redeployed within the company. >> what about investing in their existing stores? are they going to look dramatically different in the future? >> they are doing some of that already. they are changing up the format and presentation which doesn't sound dramatic but it can make a difference. they are letting their teams, particularly banana republic make their own decisions for localizing assortment and highlighting items working well. also technology working to infuse in the store. they are testing and piloting a lot of things. we won't see them yet because the customer isn't there. she is not ready to have a completely immersed digital and personal experience. they are testing it. >> courtney reagan from a breezy san francisco. >> blowing off the ocean there time for cnbc news update with sue herera.

>> here is what's happening. after talks with president obama, top republican leaders in congress are putting together a quick rescue plan for the trade legislation that was derailed in the house last week. according to the associated press, that bill is likely to be split into two. the first to strengthen the president's hand in global trade talks. second to renew a program of assistance to workers who lose their jobs due to imports. >> officials evacuating two philadelphia naval facilities after being informed of a potential threat from the fbi, the fbi communicating that threat. the exact nature of the threat was not known. 18 people killed and 86 wounded after a train derailed in tunisia. the crossing had a warning sign but lacked guard rails, lights or barriers. donald trump says he is seeking the republican nomination for president. he made the announcement at his namesake trump tower in new york city today. during his unscripted remarks,

he blasted politicians as incompetent negotiators, calling u.s. leaders, quote, stupid. that it's cnbc news update this hour. back to you guys. >> never one to mince words. >> he will stir things up. 30 minutes to go into the close. entering that last half hour of trade. see how that affects markets. dow up 113 points. it has been a weaker one, at least this year. s&p adding 11, nasdaq 28. a top trader at the new york stock exchange will tell us what he is watching this final 30 minutes of the session. research shows that the last 30 minutes of the day are the most important. you do want to stick around. the e-class has 11 intelligent driver-assist systems. it recognizes pedestrians and alerts you. warns you about incoming cross-traffic. cameras and radar detect dangers you don't. and it can even stop by itself.

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welcome back. just about a half hour left to go in the trading session. time to get the market wisdom of peter costa here. what are you watching to close today? >> we are watching the health care stocks. that's been a great trade for the last couple of days. we are probably going to be involved watching it playing it whatever. >> what effect will that have on

the rest of the market? >> i think there is some -- all these stocks are in the s&p. other than humana they are all up 1% 1.5%. it has a significant impact on the s&p. >> we know health care is probably leading the way in terms of growing earnings here while energy was decimated. what flows are you seeing now? the question is is that whole health care trade over? obviously, there is room to run. >> once you start talking about possible takeovers, possible mergers, that becomes a whole new space for trading. we are hearing that. we are hearing a lot of them. we are hearing this is a potential acquirer or acquired. >> starting to drive you guys crazy, isn't it? >> it can be. as a trader you don't mind that. that's what you get paid for. >> the fed meeting tomorrow how much of today's run-up has to do with them? >> i thought early on. the market was only up 23 points when we opened. i didn't think it was going to

have that much of an impact. some people are starting to think this may be september might be too early for a rate hike. some people are betting on that. i'm in that camp as well. i think the rate hike may be coming later, possibly december. >> peter costa. we will know. less than 24 hours from now, if fed policy makers try to raise interest rates the first time in a decade. one thing they watch is inflation what could trigger it in the future? steve liesman joins us with the results of a cnbc fed survey of top money pros. >> thanks very much. confidence inflation moving back to 2%. we asked our panel if they see inflation any way? we asked six ways to sunday. at the current wage growth level, do you have inflation concerns? only 10%.

deflation concerns 5%. are the risk neutral, inflation and deflation? 62%. about 2/3 say it's neutral. want to point this out for future conversation. 21% see no connection between wage inflation and price inflation. that is something they talked about. we asked at what level would you begin to be concerned? s here's the answer. 3.6% is the wage inflation worry level. we are around 2.5% by some measures. how about employment or unemployment level? current rate's 5.5%. fed's long run rate is 5.1%. we asked the full employment level or level at which unemployment i would start creating inflation. 4.8%. a ways to go here for this panel before the unemployment rate gets low enough to cause inflation. we did see inflation in the actual inflation forecast but

not a whole lot. here is the forecast this year. sorry, 59% see labor slack in the economy. the current headline rate year over year, minus 0.2%. we are seeing it as the full year for 1.2% up about 0.2%. moving back towards the fed's 2% level. it is going to be hit next year according to this panel. 2.3% is the estimate for next year. that's up 0.3% from the april survey. remember, the cpi runs hotter. what we see is that most of our panelists, median forecast is for a september rate hike. some like you just heard are forecasting a later hike. >> exactly. let's dig into this more. thank you, steve liesman. with regard to what yellen and the fed do tomorrow joining us is ted peters chairman and ceo

of bluestone financial institutions, a former member of the board of the philly fed. and ethan harris who spent nine years at the fed, wrote a book on bernanke. ted, let me begin with you. what is your expectation for tomorrow and when that first, key first rate hike happens? >> i'm projecting we are going to see an increase in september. we are going to see an increase in december. they are going to come out and pave the way for that. one thing janet yellen does not want is a big surprise. that won't spook the markets. i think we'll probably see that raise probably 50 bits this year. probably another 100 blips in 2016. >> we are nowhere near the fed's inflation target.

you think they'll move before they hit that inflation target? that's one thing they are looking at. >> it's a big thing though. >> it is but fomc is very concerned about labor and employment. those numbers have been great. jobs being created over the last two, three years have been terrific. job openings are very good. unemployment rate is down. that's the key thing janet and fomc is concerned about. also the economy is generally picking up and doing well. we are going to see about 2.5% gdp increase this year. probably another 2.5% the next couple of years. things are moving along nicely. >> do you expect we'll see the fed raise twice or raise once in a big enough way to get us to the forecast? >> i don't think we are going to learn much tomorrow. i don't think the fed can signal

because they don't know themselves whether they are going to hike in september or not. we haven't had enough improvement in the data. i think by september, given the recent flow of numbers, probably they do hike. i agree with ted also on another hike in december and four hikes next year. i think we are in track for those rate hikes from the fed. i think it's too early for them to try and presignal the move. i don't expect them to say that much about when they are going to hike tomorrow. >> ethan, what do you think the markets will do with that? is there a fear of a taper tantrum like a few years ago when ben bernanke laid out a possible scenario? >> i think the taper tantrum risks will come closer to the meeting. i don't think they know themselves. we only had about six weeks of better data after three or four months of very weak numbers. it's materially to make a confident hint about what they are going to do. they will continue to talk about every meeting being play and

very vague about the starting point. >> we just heard jeb bush say when he announced running for president yesterday, he wants the u.s. to grow 4% rate and create 19 million jobs. how feasible is that in your point of view? >> if we want double-digit inflation, it makes sense. we can't have job growth that high. we can have some improvement and try to use worker training and other programs to try and get more people to come back into the labor force. the natural population growth i don't think is fast enough to achieve those jobs without overheating the economy. >> ted peters same question about the market reaction. especially as it pertains to long rates. would you see yields going much higher after they start raising rates? what do you think that would do to the nascent recovery in the housing market here? >> first of all the best surprise is no surprise. that's why i believe in the

press conference tomorrow, janet yellen will lay the ground for rate increases in the fall. i believe the yield curve is going to go up consistently both short term and long term. the difference between 4% mortgage and 4.25% mortgage isn't that much. in addition we found in banking that when rates start to go up in the mortgage area you get an influx of people buying and influx of people getting mortgages because they think they better get in right now. i don't think it's going to have too much of an effect. >> ethan, a quick last word? >> i agree. i think the economy, by the time they get going will be fairly resilient. i think the gentle tightening cycle can be handled by housing market and overall economy. >> gentlemen, thank you both. >> thank you very much. ahead of a big decision by the fed. we have about 15 minutes to go in this session. stocks roughly unchanged.

we are still up 111 points. s&p and nasdaq up better than 0.5%. >> watch out u.p.s. amazon may have a new plan to deliver packages. baseball may be moving from stealing bases to stealing data. the fbi investigating the st. louis cardinals for allegingedly hacking into networks. edly hacking into networks.

fedex gearing up to post new quarterly results tomorrow. united parcel with new details. >> u.p.s. is reportedly doing away with shipping discounts on oversized packages this holiday season. they won't comment on that pricing plan but such a move would fit with earlier comments that it's considering peak season shipping surcharges. u.p.s. also announcing a partnership between u.p.s. capital and data platform

kabbage today, to allow small business customers to borrow through inventory that will move through the delivery network. they offered services like this in the past. it's something amazon does. amazon considering crowd sourcing for its own deliveries that would pay ordinary people to drop off packages cutting out parcel carriers like ups and fedex in the process. fedex reporting earnings before the bell. analysts expect $2.83 cents per share. pricing and peak season prep. any comments on that. also focusing on guidance as the company does kick off its new fiscal year. >> sounds like the free ride on shipping is going away. now it's becoming so expensive, we have to pay for it. >> that it's big question into

this peak holiday season. because of the snafus for u.p.s. over the last couple of seasons, they are realizing higher price making retailers shipping through their networks pay more for the capacity they take up. so that could trickle out to you and me. we'll have to see. >> how soon before we are all delivering packages to each other? it's interesting the way these modes of distribution are moving so far beyond the traditional warehouse and truck system. >> it's true. sounds like if these reports about amazon are correct, people could be delivering packages to each other sooner rather than later. and this growth in so-called multichannel retailing. omni channel. these delivery giants are delivering packages to local brick-and-mortar stores for consumers to pick up themselves.

last mile delivery is expensive. it's like three times more expensive than to deliver to a store. all interesting disruption happening. >> this package is for you. there you are. >> thank you. this is a good package. it's an ipad. >> thank you very much. good stuff. about ten minutes to go into the close. art cashin walked by and said pretty much a nonevent. the dow hanging on to a gain of about 111 points. very few red spots today. unitedhealth having another 2% day. s&p up 11 nasdaq 26. >> maybe a nonevent, but wait till tomorrow. when we come back top money pro tells us why buying cheap stocks may not always be the best idea. at chase, we celebrate small businesses every day through programs like mission main street grants. last years' grant recipients are achieving amazing things.

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about eight minutes left. joining us with their thoughts jeremy hill from old black heath companies and michael ball president of weather stone capital management. anybody expecting the fed to raise rates tomorrow? >> no. >> no. >> okay. we got that out of the way now. what's moving this market here?

where are you making money here? >> i think for u.s. equity investors, the two issues in the room obviously are interest rate risks and the u.s. dollar. either you have to leverage those risks or you have to avoid them. if you want to leverage them we like morgan stanley where they do have interest rates risks, but they are also playing in the m&a game and fixed income trading will be gangbusters this quarter. that's something we like. >> even though goldman is trying to take a beat on them and get more into this consumer lending space? >> it's interesting. i don't think that will be a big business for goldman. that is just a side show today. morgan stanley has a stronger franchise going forward over the next intermediate time frame. lazard have a huge m&a pipeline are very attractive here. >> you guys still like the health care space. we've been talking a ton about this one. just as people wonder whether it's running out of steam,

managed deals are happening. >> the m&a activity stayed quite strong. every week there is another significant merger. earnings growth continues to remain strong and ten major sectors expected to be the number two sector for the year. cash flows into the sector remain strong. a number of measures it's getting overowned, not to any extremes. with the dollar rally, we are comfortable. >> every day, another hacking story. today potentially in major league baseball you and michael like this etf p.m. investment cyber security. >> it's one of the true secular trends. whether it's fireeye, palo alto networks, they are all about revenue growth here. if you look at best in class fireeye, their top line is increasing 50% per year right now. that's an attractive place to

be. we've seen huge hedge fund ownership of these names recently. they have the wind at the back of institutional investors. >> we look at the market. it's getting extended. historically, i've got a market that is the third longest bull market in history which is a good time to take risk off the table. a news alert on discover. >> discover financial services announced it's going to close its mortgage origination business acquired back in 2012. it will refocus itself on profitable direct banking products, which the company says it sees greater opportunities for growth. in all, what this is going to lead to is discover planning to offer severance packages for 264 people and 4 cents per share charge.

>> interesting. out of the mortgage business. we are coming back with the closing countdown for this tuesday. >> we have much more to come after the bell. adobe posts quarterly results. there's nothing more romantic than a spontaneous moment. so why pause to take a pill? and why stop what you're doing to find a bathroom? with cialis for daily use, you don't have to plan around either. it's the only daily tablet approved to treat erectile dysfunction so you can be ready anytime the moment is right. plus cialis treats the frustrating urinary symptoms

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mitigating risks across your business. leaving you free to focus on what matters most. in the us, three in ten college students drop out. but how can you spot who's at risk? the one who lives far from campus? the one who works the night shift? the one with new responsibilities? one thing can't tell you, but the right combination can. universities are using ibm analytics to understand pressures in and out of the classroom- some expect to cut dropout rates by twenty-five percent. ibm analytics is working to make education smarter every day. 90 seconds into the countdown before the close. the dow tells the story, quiet morning before the open. when european markets closed the rally took off.

bob pisani is this rally happening because of the fed meeting tomorrow? >> traditionally we do get a rise going into the fed meeting. another sign this is fed related, bank stocks are moving today. this is the regional bank etf. this is hitting a seven-year high here. the important thing is banks like bb&t all hitting new 52 week highs. this is a six-year high. you can buy this kre. interest rates are rising and traders believe the fed will push rates up throughout the end of the year or try to move them up a little bit. that may positively affect banks.

>> thanks bob. tomorrow we'll be in the midst of janet yellen's news conference. stay tuned. adobe's earnings and a lot more. what about this hacking scandal in major league baseball? that's now on the second hour of "the closing bell" with kelly evans. see you tomorrow. >> thank you bill. welcome to "the closing bell." a rally day for wall street ahead of the decision by the federal reserve tomorrow regarding interest rates. dow adding 112 points on the close there, back above 17,900. s&p adding about 12. couldn't get over 2100. nasdaq adding 25 to 55. joining our panel we have herb greenberg in the house. good to have you. dan greenhouse welcome back. appreciate your time. let's begin what we think about markets today.

how much is a general rised fed-related rally? >> best of luck figuring that out. tomorrow it will be whatever it will be. this is a market that what we know regardless of what people say, i can tell you as a guy who sells short biased research the market is still a little reluctant, but i'm seeing signs in my world that people are starting to want to add certain types of shorts to their portfolio hedge funds where they were shorting indexes. that means they are willing to start taking more risk that something with the market regardless of what happened today, yesterday or tomorrow is in the works. >> i'm not going to argue with herb. at the risk of providing nothing to the conversation sometimes markets go up and sometimes markets go down.

there isn't always approximate cause for that movement. when you look the way the stock markets performed, there is a confluence of factors, but nothing you can point to. >> there was something interesting that happened last hour. i asked ethan harris on the program, what would it take for us to get jeb bush's pledge to 4% growth 19 million jobs created were he elected president? ethan responded, if we are okay with double-digit inflation we can have that. >> that's nonsense. i disagree. last election tim pawlenty caught flack talking about 5% growth. 4% is reasonable. i don't want to echo jeb's point, but 4% is an achievable level. to counter ethan, sorry, we can do it probably without double digit growth. >> there is an underlying reason this debate is going on if you

look at deutsche bank some of the research saying we probably already hit the inflection point, reaching full employment capacity in this economy and seeing wages start to pick up. you could argue if the economy -- if the speed limit is much lower and we've already hit that, if we want 4% growth that's why we would see more inflation. >> to be clear, btig is in the pro-inflation camp. i wouldn't go so far to say the threat of deflation is over. clearly the bias to up side in wages and inflation with the worst of energy decline behind us. >> let's bring tim seymour into this conversation. >> herb was talking about single stock shorts versus indices. that is a sign where investors are more fearful. if you look at fund manager surveys we are at almost 5%

cash. you see portfolio managers looking for ways to defend against higher interest rates, whenever it is it's probably september and greece. when i look where markets are positioned and i see opportunity, small caps look to be vulnerable. one, fund flows into small caps had a tremendous run for the last almost two years and started to peak and started to withdraw. spread of volatility from small cap to big cap is very tight. small caps actually, which are typically much more volatile are playing way too tight. people are not prepared. you are in a place where rates go higher. largely, i'm with the guys that say the glass is half full in the global economy. 4% growth isn't preposterous.

and labor is strong. >> people are trying to justify this rate increase. saying it's no big deal. we haven't had a rate hike in nine years. we both know with he that rate hike comes, i suspect there will be days people will say rates are going up. they'll talk about the mortgage market with gusto. just when we had fed meetings that have shown possibility of increases. >> the really interesting thing, is the fed going to try to communicate tofsh, this isn't a staircase? they can say all they want but people think it's a staircase and going to keep climbing. they will behave interest rates are rising not they have just risen. >> they'll take great pains to say this will be gradual. we'll take our time. they have no idea. something could change. when you look back at 2004, they were saying this is going to be gradual, we'll take our time and

ended up hiking 25 basis points and every meeting. >> we are two weeks away from the end of this quarter. then we start the next round of earnings. that will start ruling this market if everything else falls by the wayside. >> let's focus on stocks that typically move around the fed decision. dom, what can you tell us? >> the big caveat here is admittedly these are smaller sample sizes. we asked our data partners at kensho to talk about the times we've seen the fed have an interest rate meeting since janet yellen took the helm of the fed in march 2014. we have ten occurrences. over the course of the past ten times janet yellen pro sided over a fed interest rate decision on average the s&p is up a marginal 0.2%. it's positive about 60% of the time. as for sectors to watch here.

financials 0.3% gain. they are positive 80% of the time. consumer staples, the worst performing sector down about 0.1% positive only 40% of the time. let's fast forward to the news conferences portion. we are going to have one tomorrow. there have been five times since march 2014 since janet yellen took the helm we had a news conference. performance on average has been more positive. up about 0.7%. positive 80% of the time. material is one of the best performing sector. it's positive 80% of the time. consumer staples, the laggard up 0.4% positive 60% of the time. that is what janet yellen's fed looked like in the context of the broader market sitting near record highs. numbers to mull over.

>> want to kick this out to you for your reaction. >> sounds like what dan was saying. they are going to go to great lengths on a day when yellen gives the speech go out of her way to say we'll be data-dependent. i think the data is better. they'll say data dependent. those other ten times they go higher because she is saying things indicating weaker rates, possibly weaker dollar softer foot on the gas pedal. p i think tomorrow when will go out of their way to push towards september. the market will be uncomfortable with that but i think it's right and where they are going. >> adobe systems quarterly results hit the tape. >> adobe just reporting. 48 cents on $1.16 billion. the street was looking for 45 cents on $1.16 billion. that is a beat on the bottom.

just in line on the top. q-3 revenue. guiding for 1.175 to $1.225 billion. that is below what the street wanted to seat. known for photo shop illustrative programs that transition through subscription cloud services. conference call will be at 5:00 p.m. eastern and we'll bring you headlines. >> adobe shares down about 1%. any thoughts on that one? >> it had such a great run. they did such a great job revitalizing the company. as an adobe acrobatic pdf create user why does it still crash? they've done something very good. they get you in. you can't get out until you don't need it any more. >> do you have a general rised cloud view here? so many companies, adobe included, tried to make the transition or created one from

scratch. >> in a subscription base. >> i'm a subscriber. >> i use the new office for mac which is very good, i think cloud is here. when you have a small business like mine and you roll out software, to buy it the way you buy it on the cloud and dispense is across your company, it's much easier to do with a cloud-based application than enterprise. >> tim, the last word here. whether on adobe or what you're watching elsewhere. >> let's talk about the broader markets. the equities move higher emerging markets move higher. small caps is what you should watch. investors haven't put enough credence into the fact small caps should be trading where they are.

it's a great time. it can't run in the face of everything else. >> thanks tim. you can see more of tim seymour starting at 5:00 on "fast money." they'll talk to the ceo of the biotech that lost half its value overnight. thomas chalberg. if you are hunting for stocks on the street one of morgan stanley's top pros discuss why investors need to reidentify how they identify bargains. and the ceo of activision blizzard. how he is cashing in on mobile gaming. leave early go roam sleep in sleep out star gaze dream big wander more care less beat sunrise

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breaking news on fox. >> if you watch cnbc and you watch our own david faber, you already know what we are going to say here. 21st century fox announces formerly rupert murdoch and lachlan murdoch will share co-executive roles at 21st century fox.

in conjunction with this james murdoch, currently the co-chief operating officer will become the new ceo. david faber reported this last week. we are just getting confirmation now from 21st century fox that lachlan murdoch and rupert murdoch will share the co-executive title and james murdoch assumes ceo role. all these are effective july 1st. chase carey's role as executive vice chairman will continue through june 30th 2016. >> thank you very much. we've known this was happening. anything significant in this report to you? >> no. we follow the media space. we follow fox so i won't comment specifically. this is a story we talked about on air for several months now.

the complaints against the nepotism all are unchanged. this is part of that larger story. >> not much of a reaction there 21st century fox down a little p under 1%. morgan stanley out with a list of 30 stocks to watch the next three years. just because a stop is cheap doesn't mean it's worth buying. some have sky high p/e ratios. let's bring in steve pen wellwellwell. why aren't you scared off by these high valuations? >> we tried to isolate the it go risks in stocks. we think these companies have

sustainable, competitive advantage. >> how do you know? what are you looking at? is it earnings per share? how do you analyze stocks if it's not just price to earnings. >> fundamentals with the model, balance sheet. top line growth. smashgt share gainers. topline growth. can they translate that to the bottom line? are they good stewards of capital? >> would you argue against what he is saying here? >> when we are talking long term in this environment, anything beyond two minutes, there are always issues. it's great you guys in this environment are willing to look that far out. i will say when i look at some of the names there i know i know you are not going to speak specific names, but when i look at the potential flaws, i look at google. on "fast money" we talked about this. we did a recent report at my

research firm. a slow income company throwing stock-based comp at employees. the point being that is an expense they are telling people not to watch. at some point, if people watch that, that stock could go much lower. you've seen amazon.com. it's done a spectacular job with its business but still not the most profitable company on earth. >> that's why we don't use eps or ebitda. both can be wrong. we make those adjustments. we understand there is stock-based compensation. we think these are companies that have sustainable cash flow and cash flow will be either reinvested at a proper rate or return to shareholders. it's all about coming through. >> there are a couple of deeper themes. one is clay christianson argument short-term rules are to blame and this move from a macro environment with high

correlations to more of a stock-picking environment. both seem to be coming to the fore. what response has there been? >> this is the fifth one we've done over the last 6 1/2 years. the response has grown every 18 months. i think originally we thought the bulk of the interest would be with our retail network. demand and interest has come from our retail network as well as institutional. >> on a day which donald trump announces he is running for president, he estimates his brand and brand-related deals at, worth $3.3 billion. is there something to that? on the list there's companies like nike disney google blackrock. companies that are leaders in their field that have some level of brand awareness. does that factor into this discussion? >> it comes down to the cash flow they are able to generate and returns that can generate on

there. there is no good will no brand value. what can they earn? that's what our analysts do best. try to figure out real cash earnings. >> if you've been doing this how on that list because we have a three-year time horizon, how are those done? we've been in a bull market. >> absolutely. the recent one is only out for a month. it's got a long ways to run. the others we won three out of four years. growth performance has been very positive. the dispersion has much much lower. >> he hear an etf. >> thank you for joining us. breaking news on hank greenberg and aig. >> it's star international run by former aig ceo hank greenberg and lead plaintiff in the case was decided yesterday.

the case being starr versus the u.s. plans to appeal the decision made by a circuit court job thomas wheeler. the judge sided with the plaintiff starr international, formerly a major shareholder of aig stock. aig shareholders were wrongfully or the government acted illegally in requiring that aig give over 80% its stock in return for a loan that saved the failing insurance company. in the original case starr international asked for $40 billion in damages. while judge wheeler agreed with the plaintiff's charge this equity stake was taken illegally, he disagreed shareholders deserved damages. he said without the loan aig would have failed and shareholders left with nothing. starr international plans to appeal the decision not to award shareholders damages after the judge ruled the federal

government acted illegally taking that equity stake in return for a loan. >>. >> obviously, implications of holders of fannie and freddie. >> we talk about how many traders on wall street haven't been around since the fed raised rates. there are people who were not actively involved in the market in '08 and forget what a big deal that year was. i think it's interesting. it's brought up the whole idea again of the back door bailout for the banking sector. and by the government acting the way they did with aig, they effectively funneled the money to the banks that otherwise would have suffered much. >> do you think it wouldn't happen again? >> no. if there is one thing we know about people they are dumb and something dumb is going to happen again. >> human nature. >> we've been dealing with bubbles hundreds of years. lower oil prices have been hurting shale producers. has profit squeeze put the squeeze on safety? details of startling new reports

next. driverless cars appear to be the future of transportation. is congress ready for this change? one senator leading the charge.

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someone dies every six weeks from an accident in the balkan fields. joining us is the author behind this investigation. originally published by "reveal" a website in the center are investigative reporting, an independent nonprofit newsroom based in san francisco. welcome, jennifer. thank you for being here. >> thank you so much kelly. >> what impact have you heard since publishing this story effectively asserting that there is all sorts of safety lapses happening across the oil fields? >> we heard from dozens of workers since this report confirming our findings which showed that since 2006 at least 74 workers have died in the balkan oil fields. this is the first comprehensive report of its kind based on data collected from canadian and u.s. regulators. that means on average someone dies every six weeks in the balkan oil fields. >> let me just read this

statement from the north dakota petroleum council saying we don't see any correlation between lower oil prices and changes in our safety culture. safety is private number one. goal is zero accidents and we are in a state of continual improvement. are they in a state of continual improvement? is there at least a better trend than in the past? >> i think safety experts in oil fields would tell you that over the last five to six years, there's been a heavy emphasis on speed and profit and production. i do think based on what they are telling me that companies, top energy producers are trying to balance those priorities with safety. what we found through our investigation is that some companies are paying speed bonuses and incentives and congratulating supervisors on well sites for drilling quickly. in some cases, companies like oasis petroleum north america, we found pay workers $150 a day

for working quickly versus $40 a day for working safely. >> dan, does this trouble you? >> yeah. people dying is never a good thing. jennifer who is the or which is the government agency that is supposed to be overseeing this? by extension, shouldn't we assume that particular agency is lacking, so to speak? >> you might assume so. the agency in charge of federal work place safety in north dakota and montana is osha. what we found through our investigation is federal oversight of work place safety when it comes to oil and gas is spotty. there is no specific standard that applies for work place safety to oil and gas. this leaves regulators relying on so-called general duty clause which makes it very difficult to hold top energy producers

accountable. we found one top energy producer has been held accountable for work place death since 2006 in montana and north dakota. >> outside of the balkan what do deaths look like not just the oil industry but all other industries? how does it compare? terrible number but what is the comparison? >> that is a good question. something we would have loved to get to the bottom of. however, what we found through our investigation is osha does not have a systemic way to track oil and gas-related deaths. these are jobs that are in construction or excavating in support of oil boom growth. so it's very difficult to make an apples to apples comparison. >> we'll leave it there and hope we do get more data to understand more about the extent to which this is the cause of the drop in oil prices. thanks for being here.

>> thank you. time for a cnbc news update with sue herera. >> here is what's happening at this hour. six people confirmed dead after a fourth floor balcony collapsed at an apartment building in berkeley, california today. seven others seriously injured. five of the dead were irish students. police are investigating the cause of that collapse. it is day 11 of the search of two escapees from a new york state prison. officers near the canadian border are stopping and searches vehicles for any sign of david sweat and richard matt. the recall effects toyota tundra lexus.

>> the british prime minister's wife met with first lady michelle obama and her daughters. we have digital video games sales jumping 11%. credit a large part of that to activision's call of duty franchise. >> and could video sales surpass traditional video game sales. >> and what is sending tuition out of control? td ameritrade, they work hard. wow, that was random. random? no it's all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. for

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welcome back. u.s. markets rallying nicely ahead of the fed decision tomorrow. dow up 113 points. take a look at the ten-year yield. this has been catching a ton avenue tension. we are seeing it settle about 2.3% as discussion about what the fed does continues to swirl. fbi investigating another big computer hacking. this isn't on wall street. it's on the baseball diamond. dominic chou has the latest. >> we have an interesting story because it involves major league

baseball espionage and computer hacking at the professional sports level. what happened so far is the fbi is investigating the st. louis cardinals baseball franchise, one of the most successful franchises in baseball history. also a franchise held by many as the gold standard for operating efficiency within major league baseball. there are allegations that senior officials in the front office within the cardinals' organization hacked into computer systems of the houston astros. again, both teams, astros and cardinals out with statements saying they are cooperating with the fbi investigation and have no further comment. major league baseball's commissioner's office made a similar statement. what this speaks to is this idea there is this computer hacking that can be done at multiple different levels. in this case here with major league baseball. the story does center around this idea the current general manager of the astros used to be with the cardinals' organization.

he went to the astros took some of his personnel with him. there was perhaps a little bit of bitterness or hard feelings between the organizations. we'll see where this leads. everyone is cooperating. nobody has further comment, but it does speak to this idea computer hacking can anybody anywhere. >> any indication how the hacking happened? >> the reports are, especially from "the new york times," it was a low-level type of hacking. it wasn't a sophisticated cyber attack. it was more like people knew old passwords and tried to use the passwords in this system the astros hachltd what is interesting about the overall story is this notion that it can happen without any real understanding of cyber coding. interesting that it happened to just maybe passwords.

gives you a moment of pause to think about whether or not you should change your passwords every once in a while just in case. >> you guilty of this? >> hacking into other people's computers? >> not changing your passwords. >> i have enough i try to keep my mind challenged remembering them for the specific sites. >> it's a fairly easy way down. >> baseball is a game of inches. every little bit makes a game of difference. leaving aside it's a low-level hack or just the astros, which is a larger story, something like this could make a difference in a game if you know a particular player's weakness or what pitch to throw on what count. baseball is a game of inches for a reason. >> it is ultimately pathetic. >> it's also a game that wall street can very much appreciate. it's that a game of numbers. people in the baseball culture,

you know how data-driven this game is. for those who aren't in the baseball culture, i've got to know about the percentages people track. in the advent of money ball and this idea you can model around player performance, all these statistics mean something. that's the reason this is getting a lot of interest especially on wall street. >> dominic, thank you for now. the electronic entertainment expo the gaming industry's the biggest annual event. julia boorstin is out there for us joined by activision ceo. >> thanks. bobby, thanks for joining us here from e3. there's been a lot of talk about your newle "call of duty" game. you are teaming up with sony instead of xbox. what will it mean to sales? >> we'll have it on every platform. sony is our partner on specialized opportunities.

we have partners with microsoft on things and sony on things. you have over 100 million people who played black op since the first one. this is one of the most anticipated games we ever had. >> you think switching partnerships will make a difference in terms of sales? >> we always have partnerships with the different first parties. they work out successfully for everybody. >> skylander is another big franchise. you announced the launch of vehicles. you are holding one right now. >> this is my favorite. we are going to build a tesla version of this. >> you are facing competition from disney with their infinity which is similar to this platform. what will vehicle do to sales? >> vehicle is a really important innovation. our audiences are excited about what we've shown. it's a new category. these are toys that are fun to play just by themselves. we sold over 240 million skylanders and it's the most

successful toy of all time. >> welcome to the program. great to see you on. this phenomenon of people watching each other play video games, how does that affect your business? >> last year just our game franchises we saw over 13 billion hours of game play watched. it's 30% more than the nba, nhl, major league baseball and i think premier league combined. all tell vision sports watching in the u.s. last year is about 10 billion hours. we have 13 billion hours of game watching. this is a big opportunity for us in the future. it shows the nature and level of engagement of our audiences. >> we know youtube is going to try to get into this space. amazon bought twitch earlier. do you care where your games are being played or watched by

others? do you see an opportunity in that going forward? >> we care about our players get to watch where they want to watch. so what's important for us to make sure watching is convenient and that it's easy and accessible for all our players. >> you just brought back, five years since the last installment of that game. >> we've been exploring different innovations and came up with something we think is a breakthrough innovation. that's the basis for the game that will launch this year. >> virtual reality. everyone is talking about it here. when will it impact activision's bottom line? >> we are excited about the innovations you are seeing at companies like oculis. all will enhance audience experiences? >> next several months several years?

>> we are waiting patiently. they are interesting innovations. >> interested to see how you guys put your content into these virtual reality platforms. bobby kotick thank you for joining us here. >> thank you both. viewership numbers are astounding. donald trump officially joining the race for the presidential nomination. >> i will be the greatest jobs president that god ever created. i tell you that. i'll bring back our jobs from china, from mexico from japan from so many places. i'll bring back our jobs and i'll bring back our money. >> we'll have more on the donald's announcement, plus driverless cars getting closer to hitting america's highways. is congress ready? up next a senator introducing legislation to build technology

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let's bring back dominic chou. >> we want to call your attention to david's tea. it's down about 11% right now, 26,000 shares traded. this was a higher-profile ipo. stock is down after its first

earnings report for the canadian company as a public company. i want to provide this caveat. the company's very new and these numbers are in canadian dollars. there are no analyst estimates. adjusted earnings per share in canadian dollars came in at four cents versus canadian dollars six cents from the same period a year ago. sales grew by 29% to $36 million canadian versus $28 million canadian a year ago. same-store sales up by 6%. they are expecting a loss for the second quarter of between 8 cents and 9 cents canadian. no analyst estimates because it's so new. wanted to call your attention to the stock move down 11% on relatively light volume. >> often a tough one, that first reporting quarter. driverless cars are coming. my next guest wants to make sure the federal government is ready with the newly-created smart

transportation caucus. congress wants to focus on new innovations. joining us for "the spark" is senator gary peters from michigan. is this a bipartisan effort? how pressing is it for you to indicate one way or the other where you are going to have the highway system going with regard to this new technology? >> it's coming sooner than anybody anticipated in the past. we are looking at just incredible advances in technology vehicle-to-vehicle technology as well as vehicle-to-infrastructure. there will be incredible benefits in terms of vehicle safety realized short term. autonomous vehicles. we need to do a couple of things here in congress. that's one to keep the spectrum available so vehicles and infrastructure can communicate. there are folks that want a piece of that. we've got to look at ways we can responsibly protect that because of safety applications as well as wiring our roads and

infrastructure so that information can be presented to automobiles, as well. >> some academics said we need to keep in mind aviation. those planes largely pilot themselves, there is a need for pilots to be sophisticated when it comes to that technology staying away with their planes to intervene when necessary. what about the impact this could have in terms of needing to unify state standards for traffic rules, new classes of licensures for drivers? >> it will take a while before we get there. if we have vehicles communicating with each other, for example the vehicle ahead of you, if it starts to brake, that braking would be communicated to your car which would allow for it to brake for safety purposes. the national highway traffic safety administration believes

safety technologies being implemented to eliminate up to 80% of all crashes on our roads. at a time when 30,000 people die every year on the highways that's significant. that's the short run applications, including to infrastructure. when you come to autonomous vehicles, that will be a completely different area. we are making very quick advances. many folks believe it may be less than ten years when you see a lot of autonomous vehicles on the road. >> senator, i think ten years autonomous -- based on the research i've done at least 20 years for to you see, based on what kelly was talking about, all these -- you've got so much going on. technology will be there, there will be a lot of hype around it. we are going well beyond your tenure and my tenure before we see this. i do hope i live to see it. >> senator, quick last word. how much of this do you have to do right now to make sure you can anticipate whether it's

coming in five years or 25? >> i think in the short run, it's the spectrum to make sure technology can develop. it's about developing this. make sure the spectrum is there and roads are the roads are wired. but to your point with the analogy with airplanes, it's the same thing. different steps will be taken. in fact we've got general motors that they believe they'll have a cadillac in the next couple miles that will be able to drive down a highway, similar to an airplane just flying in the air without any of the complications. you're not going to have a car driving through a city autonomous for quite some time but something as simple as driving down a highway, which is why we need vehicle infrastructure technology and that can be very safe and done much more -- quicker than the complete autonomy you that might see in the city for example. >> certainly a good first step. we know cars talking to each other is bound to happen as well. senator, we'll come back and see what else happens as this technology continues. senator gary peters. really appreciate your time this afternoon. >> thank you. >> you can check out much more on the spark at

cnbc.com/thespark on this specific issue. also president obama's fast track trade bill isn't getting fast tracked in congress. it's hit multiple snags. does it have the support of his own political party? up next the very latest developments from washington and comments from nancy pelosi. stay with us.

welcome back. house democrats delivered a stunning setback to president obama last week putting a specific trade deal in jeopardy. earlier today chief washington correspondent john harwood sat down with house democratic leader nancy pelosi in one of his speak easy interviews and asked if she had betrayed her president. >> one of the headlines said pelosi knifes obama. >> that's not fair. that's just not fair. >> but you don't trust him in his assertion that this deal is good for middle-class economics. >> let me just say this. i certainly trust the president. and i think all of our members trust the president. we disagree with the president on that because this tpp has not even been completed in terms of it and people can reserve the right to take a look at that when they see that -- >> what we're going through now would allow us to be complete. >> it can be completed without it. >> meantime the other big d.c. story of course, republican presidential field getting a lot

bigger today. donald trump officially entering the race saying he will be the greatest jobs president god ever created, guys. we already heard from jeb bush saying 4% growth 19 million jobs, and trump wants to one-up that. >> these will be the greatest debates in the sense of viewership since we've been seeing debates like this. >> if he makes it in. and it looks like he could. >> he'll make it in. if you go by fox and cnn's requirements for the polls, technically he would make it in right out. >> it will be fun to watch. up next if you're counting on state college being cheaper than a private university, you might want to rethink that plan. state school costs are rising fast. we'll tell you why, next. at chase, we celebrate small businesses every day through programs like mission main street grants. last years' grant recipients are achieving amazing things. carving a name for myself and creating local jobs. creating more programs for these little bookworms. bringing a taste of louisiana to the world. at chase, we're proud to support our grant recipients and small businesses like yours.

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and life gets lived. with xerox, you're ready for real business. the costs of a higher education is well only getting higher. sharon epperson joins us with why college costs are soaring. hi, sharon. >> hi kelly. it's pretty clear that college costs have been outpacing inflation. since the 1990s the price of a degree has risen faster than the cost of other goods and services and some researchers point to the array of amenities schools now offer for driving up those costs. the share of expenses devoted to student services certainly has risen over the years. yet teaching salaries which make up the bulk of costs, have been relatively flat for two decades. overall, the cost of providing

higher education has remainedly stable, yet the price keeps rising. and that's largely due to subsidies. the medium endowment for most private colleges is about $113 million. by comparison harvard has a $36 billion endowment. for most private colleges 70% to 8 80% of its funds must come from tuition. meanwhile, researchers say public subsidies are at a ten-year low and that means college students for the first time are forced to pay half or more of their education costs with many racking up student loan debt to that degree. kelly? >> guys your reaction? >> i'm glad my kids are out of college and i paid that bill. >> dan? >> my kids are not getting to college, but man. i mean listen this has been a debate for some time whether it's debt or government sub disfor higher education. we were talking off air about things politicians could do to affect normal people real ideas if you will. figuring out how to make college more affordable is mobl one good

way. i will add one of my favorite episodes of the great show "west wing" talked about making college tuition tax-deductible for the average family. that's not a bad idea either. >> great to see you. that does it for us here on "closing bell." and "fast money" is up next. over to you guys. >> here we go. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq marketsite overlooking new york's times square. i'm simon hobbs in for melissa lee. our traders on the desk are tim seymour, steve grasso brian kelly, and guy adami. tonight on "fast" greece hangs in the balance. but the commodities king has a way to make money no matter what the outcome. dennis garman is here to reveal his special trade. plus retail's new reality. why the gap's massive store closings and layoffs could be just the start of many more retailers to follow. we'll name names with a top analyst. that's ahead. but first to our top story. stocks soaring today ahead of tomorrow's all-important fed