tv Fast Money CNBC July 1, 2015 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT
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there are steps that can be taken to resolve the situation without saying the sky is falling. and today would be an indication that they do have the ability to pay. >> all right. >> thank you. >> we finish with good news today. that's great. thank you, kate kelly there in san juan. thank you, carol roth, kayla tauschi. as always, we enjoy vug on the program today. >> kelly's back tomorrow from aspen. >> this was not planned. yes, we match but -- >> it was so in sync. we don't even have to tell each other. >> that's it for "closing bell." "fast money" coming up right now. melissa lee, what's on tap? >> live from the nasdaq marketsite in new york city's times square this is "fast money." i'm meltsa lee. tim seymour, josh brown, brian kelly and guy adami. mcdonald's coming in dead last in the american customer satisfaction report but that could be a good thing and a top analyst will explain why. plus, lagging the market. we've got two big cap tech stocks that could beat the market the rest of the year. and here's the best part. you probably use this company every single day. but first, to the developing story on the airlines. the justice department is
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reportedly investigating the major carriers for colluding to keep airfares high. and the stocks are sinking on the news. cnbc's phil lebeau's got the latest on this developing story. phil? >> the key thing to keep in mind, this is an investigation of whether or not the airlines according to pete williams, who's talked with people at the department of justice, whether or not airlines have sent signals to each other in terms of when they're going to be adding capacity or restricting capacity. that's at the heart of this investigation. the airlines, are they working together to limit that capacity? in effect if it's limited capacity that would push the airfares higher. southwest is not commenting about whether or not it's received a letter from the doj. and officially, here's what the department of justice is saying. "we are investigating possible
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unlawful coordination between some airlines." at the heart of this matter is whether or not the airlines have said to each other, you know what, we probably could add a few thousand seats to this route but we're not going to do it and you're not going to do it and that way fares will stay higher. look at the number of seat miles in the u.s., and this is according to the d.o.t. back in '08 it was 87 million. then you had the recession drop down to 76 million. it started coming back relati relatively quickly in 2010. the most recent data here in 2015, about 88 million available seat miles not only with the big four carriers but all airlines here in the united states. as you take a look at shares of delta, american, southwest, keep in mind that these stocks were already under pressure on the concern that they were going to add too much capacity. and as a result that was going to hurt their profitability per available seat mile. clearly, this investigation is going to give those who are skeptical about the future of airlines plenty of fodder to talk, melissa. but that is at the heart of this investigation. did the airlines send a signal to each other, either through
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communication or covertly or some way, to say you know what, on that route from l.a. to new york or from chicago to boston let's just keep it where it is in terms of capacity. >> all right. phil lebeau, thanks for that update. when you take a look at the reaction of stocks, maybe this really tells you something about the sentiment surrounding these stocks because the stocks that are down this year there's some skepticism on investors' parts that the airlines can be disciplined this year, and here we are with a new investigation, bam, sold. >> phil nailed that. to me this is absurd that the same reason these airlines were punished, they're colluding to get together to control capacity creep. and so the sector's been under full attack because people are worried about four or five years, maybe even a decade of better capacity control, it's something that's about to go out the window. to me this is a story where if you look at the stocks today, we traded back down to the june 9th lows on awful these names. the spike intraday low, let's see where we open tomorrow but for example, i said 40 bucks on delta, you have to wait to hold this level or you stay away.
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meanwhile, we've seen some of the most i think well-respected airlines analysts on the street come on the show or talk about how they're defending valuations at these levels and saying in many cases 30%, 40%, 50% up side if you look at where they have them. fuel prices, oil has been flat. to say that's a headwind, i think the oil vol is largely over. i think this is an opportunity but it's not tomorrow. >> what do you think? opportunity to buy? >> i think tim made all the really important fundamental points i could have brought out. let me just talk about price action. when i look at the amex airline index which is xal on your terminal, but what you're essentially seeing is a sector that's been under pressure for a long time, already down 15% from the highs, but now if you go back to the summer of 2014 you saw this resistance level of 8850, bumped its head up against it repeatedly, footbally broke through, prior resistance now becomes current support. that's about 4% below where they closed today. it's he very logical an index down 15% would find support at
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the prior highs. i do think like tim a buy opportunity is ney. i'd much rather be a buyer than a seller. however, you really haven't gotten any signal that there's any kind of oomph, anytime the buyers have come in yet. i would give it a little time but i would keep these names on my radar. >> i don't know. would you wait to see how this shapes up? >> i think so. you've got plenty of time to wait how this shapes up. i know the one thing you don't do is you don't wake up tomorrow morning and sell these stocks in a panic. that's absolutely what you don't do because they've already come down so much and you look at united airlines it bounced off 50 today. that's again a support like josh was talking about. for me i think i'd rather be a seller on rips than a buyer here. but that's kind of potato potato. what i would also mention is this is going to keep a lid on these stocks until this investigation comes through by they're also a big component of the transport index which we've talked about ad nauseam and people have said isn't it an indication that things are slowing down, is it or isn't it? that debate will go on. you're not going to get a dow confirmation if the rest of the
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market rips up you're probably not going to get a transport confirmation. just keep an eye on that. >> the backdrop of this is interesting. the same justice department that essentially approved four major airline mergers in the past seven years and now are saying the airlines are colluding possibly. >> now when they've finally turned the corner in terms of profitability this comes out. tim and trb mentioned the technical breakdown in some of the names. i don't think jetblue has technically broken down, though. i think it's still in a pretty well-defined up trend from this time last year when it was basically an $8 or $9 stock. it didn't trade well today. none of them did. but out of all of them the one that still seems intact technically is jetblue. that and the fact it has about 15% short. to me it means the stock is it still buyable right here. >> move in the airlines coming on a day when crude oil fell a whopping 4%, ending below 57 bucks per barrel for the first time in a month. is crude oil sending a warning sign to the markets?
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now, today's drop primarily precipitated by inventory builds. >> look at the two different oils we have. brent which is the world price. that was down about 2 1/2%. wti, which is the u.s. pricing, was down 4%. so today's drop was clearly about u.s. inventories. we know that story. there is an economic signal here. it's probably not as strong an economic signal as down 4% suggests but you are seeing things slowing down, less demand. storage is also filling up. not just in oklahoma but actually storage on vessels as well. if anything, i'm a seller. xle you want to sell. crude want to sell. you want to be out of this name. that's it for now. >> i tell you, i don't think it's a signal on anything macro. i mean, this is all about supply. it's always been about supply. look around the world today. pmis out of all the places you're very worried about and they were fine. europe's better. you had 52 across the board in europe. 50.2 in china. okay. maybe that's stabilizing at best. but to say oil demand is collapsing is crazy. it's not a read on the global
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economy. it's absolutely supply. but if you want to trade this look at the drillers. drillers are down 30% from the recent highs. barreling down to the recent lows. and i think that's where you start to look at them again. if you listen to rick the last couple days they've had their day rates knocked out from 640 bucks to 395 a day for their deep water rigs. it's not getting better for the next two to three years. you have to be careful and wait for another bottom. >> tim might be right in terms of supply-demand. there is a demand component. but exxonmobil, you're talking about a stock here that made a 52-week low today on what's been a pretty until recently, pretty robust tape. we're trading at levels we last saw in 2012. and i don't think you've gotten a confirmation yet that the bottom is in in terms of the name. we haven't seen a big trading volume day yet, and we obviously haven't seen earnings yet. i think you have to wait for both. >> coming up next, what the vice president of key apple competitor xiaomi said today that has apple shaking in their boots. mcdonald's clocking in last in a
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brand new consumer survey. one top analyst says that could actually be a good thing and she thinks the stock could rally another 25% from here. she'll explain why. later we've got two stocks that look poised to beat the water for the rest of the year. we'll tell you what they are when "fast money" returns. i earn unlimited 2% cash back on everything i buy for my studio. ♪ and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business... that's huge for my bottom line. what's in your wallet?
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the headlines coming fast and furious out of greece. michelle caruso-cabrera is live in athens. michelle, what are the potential tape bombs we should be looking for out of greece tomorrow? >> well, it appears that negotiations have come to a complete and shall we say bitter end, at least for the week before the sunday referendum. so i think the things to watch for over the next couple of days are how the greek population reacts to the continuation of capital controls. tomorrow again we expect pensioners to line up. they've been doing it via alphabetical order. today we saw them in line. there was already a lot of tension. as pensioners who thought they were going to be able to get all of their monthly stipend actually could only get 120 euros this week and then they'd have to come back next week for another 120 euros, see how much cash the country can retain at this point with the capital controls. you also have to watch for things like fuel. now, on monday we're going to show you video from monday where
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in were gas station lines that were incredibly long because people know that virtually all fuel is imported to greece and that if suppliers don't have functioning banks they can't buy more fuel. so people started hoarding on monday. and we already have reports of gas stations asking exclusively for cash. greek tv was filled with images today of the islands actually running out of gasoline as well. those situations start to really squeeze, you start to see squeezes on pharmaceuticals and medical supplies as well. because so much of the greek economy is reliant on imports. and i think you can see tensions there ahead of the big vote that's coming up on sunday. and the greeks have to decide whether or not they want to accept the bailout terms of a deal that may or may not still be on the table. melissa? >> michelle caruso-cabrera, thanks so much for that. you know, it's funny because it seems like things are getting worse and worse out of greece but yet the markets are trading as if no big deal. >> they don't seem to care. my view on this is first of all this is a short-term pause in the eu bull market. so you don't need to do anything
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right here. but when i look at where european stocks are relative to u.s. stocks and the vol on eu stocks are at 20-year wides, the gap between vdax, which is vol on the dax, and the vix which is 20-year wide, which tells me european stocks have been overly pushed around. the valuation argument is very strong. you can buy pharma names, sanofi. consumer names like grocery store, carrefour. or imbev. europe is a place to be investing. it doesn't have to be tomorrow. and that's my view on it. >> how do you trade greece, josh? >> i think it's important for investors to understand that there is always a foreign country, typically a third world country, that's blowing up even during the best bull markets of all time. just in my own career. the last 15 years. when i started it was southeast asia '97. in 1998 russian ruble was devalued. fast forward a couple of years. everything in latin america devalued and blew up. yet the markets continued higher. i do not think that smyth size
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of greece at this point is going to shock anyone. everyone understands what the risks are. draghi's buying $60 billion worth of government bonds every month. this is really not going to end. unfortunately for the bears. in some kind of life-altering catastrophe. i would say better off to ignore. >> one of apple's biggest competitors xiaomi bolstering up and making a move into brazil. the chinese smartphone maker launching its latest device, the red mi 2. this is its first smartphone sold outside of asia. its first phone i should say manufactured outside of china. the cost should be about $160 u.s., much cheaper than the iphone. hugo barra, xiaomi's global vice president, spoke about it on "squawk alley." and how they're able to keep the cost so low. >> we're manufacturing locally here in brazil which is a way to get to the best price given all
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the tax advantages of doing that. so we are bringing the same model, the same business model, and the same user model to brazil. it's a very social media driven model for creating buzz. >> first of all, hugo barra is absolutely a brazilian legend. he's a very well-decorated guy in that world. so what's going on here? i don't think this is a threat to apple. if you look at apple's iphones, they're selling it -- yes, major inflation in brazil, $1200, $1300. this is a case where they're establishing a beachhead. i think the biggest impact is on people like samsung. if you want to look on how to play the brazilian cell phone industry, look at the cell providers in there. you can buy a couple adrs. tseo, tsu or viva, viv. these are badly, badly beaten down but the buildout of the lte network in very bornt. that's unltly good for apple. maybe even play the tower companies like american tower because the investment in new cell sites is very big in brazil even though brassale struggling on the macro and everybody knows it's been a tough ride.
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it's a good place to be. >> i know we like talking about apple and everything through the context and prism of apple. but xiaomi in order to succeed doesn't need to beat apple p. >> they're not there to beat apple. >> exactly. >> you're right. i don't think they see themselves as an apple xeertd. i'm sure they'd like some of that market share but that's obviously not the same exact customer. >> you've got to say with it. we talked about 122 being the line in the sand on the down side. i'm surprised its hasn't done better. i'm surprised it's 126 for the last three or four months. i think it's building a base, it takes the next leg higher. >> ford gm, toyota all in the red despite posting higher u.s. sales in june. which begs the question why have auto stocks been stuck in neutral? trv. >> i think this month is a really good example of why u.s. auto stocks are stuck in the mud. you've got three out of the last four months sales total over 17 million, which is a fantastic number. very indicative of a healthy
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consumer spending environment. yet the three u.s. automakers all disappointed on their own individual numbers this month according to auto trader. in the meantime big gains for toyota, great month for nissan. ford has now been stuck in the same range. you have to go back to november of 2010. so if you want to own this thing and collect the dividend, you're welcome to. but guys that are trading are not in these names. >> i think the one thing that josh mentioned, we're at 17.5 million monthly sales. that's a cycle high. a lot of people are talking about is this as good as it gets in terms of sales? that doesn't mean they're going to fall off an edge. it just means you're probably not going to go 19, 20 million. that would be an incredible increase. so in the space i would stay away from the u.s. ones and i'd go with something like a toyota motor obviously because they're going to have the weak yen behind them. to me i'd much rather be in that. >> goldman sachs downgraded gm, upgraded forld. since then gm down 4%, ford's down about 2%. i that i pattern continues. if you want to be long one of them. >> the levels on these
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breakouts, gm is $39, ford is 18. these are as clearly defined resistance levels as you're going to find. at some point they're going to break through and the move will be huge. it's just taking forever and there are better opportunities elsewhere while you wait. >> still ahead, the second half officially here. we're heading to the charts to show you which two tech stocks could seriously outperform the market the rest of the year. chances are you probably use one of them every single day. in the meantime here's what else is coming up on "fast." ♪ great taste of mcdonald's >> not recently. that's because mcdonald's now ranks as one of the worst fast food restaurants in customer satisfaction. but a top analyst says the floor is in and now is the time to buy the golden arches. she'll explain why. plus, move over greece and puerto rico. could the real global threat to the markets be china? tim seymour will break down what really matters to the markets. all that and more ahead on "fast." want bladder leak underwear that moves like you do?
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achieving a score of just 67 out of 100. the survey got us curious, and we wanted to see if ronald mcdonald still appeals to kids. we sent our own guy adami onto times square to talk to america's youth in the latest installment of "guy on the street." >> i'm out front of the mcdonald's in times square. we're going to find out what the fast food of choice is for america's youth. >> what's your favorite fast food restaurant? >> my favorite fast food restaurant is at mcdonald's. >> kfc. >> chipotle. >> domino's. >> domino's. >> mcdonald's. >> burger king. >> taco bell. >> chick-fil-a. >> i don't really like fast food restaurants. >> what about mcdonald's? is it doing it for you? >> no. >> no. why? >> because their food doesn't -- isn't really good to me. >> it's fake food. >> it's unhealthy. >> unhealthy. >> i don't like their chicken. >> your favorite tv show is "fast money" you were saying before, right? >> thank you.
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that's what i'm talking about. >> beautiful. >> good work right there. >> cute. cute kids. >> good work on the street. >> nice job, guy. >> these are the rest of our results from an informal survey. of the 15 people we showed five chose -- who can speak. five chose mcdonald's. seven picked other fast food chains. and one person said they didn't like fast food at all. do you think this is representative? >> i think it's an incredibly scientific survey and that you should invest all your money based on this survey. of course that's a joke. mcdonald's clearly has a perception problem. >> just did it. just clicked it in there. >> that's all right. you'll be able to spend it at mcdonald's. they have a huge, huge image problem, and we've known this. the good thing is it can only get better from here presumably as long as their new ceo actually does something about it. they can change things. for me in the space i'll go to red robin gourmet, rogb. and the reason-y we talked about it last night, they are just
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starting to implement teng technology into their restaurants and when that happens you usually see an uptick particularly in appetizer sales. so that's my play. >> the question we poseed is can anything save mcdonald's? deutsche bank managing director karen short has a buy rating on the stock with a price target 25% above current levels. she joins us from 30 rock. great to have you with us. you recently initiated the stock and called it your top pick in the space. are we going to start seeing some of the results of its new initiatives like the sirloin and the artisan chicken? how long of a turnaround story is this? >> thanks very much for having me. we initiated with the buy, and it is our top pick in the restaurant space. basically, my thesis is that this is an iconic brand that isn't broken. and i think the thing that people forget is what investors look at in terms of being a somewhat myopic, we represent 1% of the population. so our views are not reflective of the american population
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broadly. and i don't believe mcdonald's is broken. i clearly know what the satisfaction index indicated. and i think it tends to be a lagging indicator. and i've seen that in the food retail space as well. it's generally a lagging indicator. and everybody knows where mcdonald's comps are relative to the industry. and my view is it can't get worse. so to the extent that you look at risk-reward on this stock, again, a lagging indicator is definitely consistent with what nmd data's saying. >> i get what you're saying in terms of saying it's not broken but clearly something's not working when you're seeing the same-store sales decline as we are seeing. so what is it about mcdonald's that is not working? whether you want to call it broken or not working, those are semantics. something isn't clicking. >> well, i mean, clearly there's an increase in competition in the burger space. but there's been a broader increase in competition from other formats like the chipotles of the world. and i think mcdonald's lost their way. they tried to over i guess
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complicate their menu and move away from things that were there core competency. that wasn't working with consumers. i think right now you're moving more back to the baixz. obviously, we've had a change in management and we've had i change in organizational structure that will streamline how decisions are made. and they're also moving much more to allow more autonomy from a regional perspective which i think will be a big driver. there's obviously going to be a lot of changes to the drive-thru menu and simplification of the drive-thru menu. they just tried to do too many things and be too many things to different people. and that's not where their competency is. >> karen, it's josh. let me give the other side and i'd love to hear your reaction. they'll go back to baix and back to their core competency at a time when nobody's interested in their basics and their competency won't be good enough. their core competency is essentially selling factory food that an entire generation of parents have now not exposed tore thirnld to, and people are not going to come to this brand once they're 10, 11 years old if
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they didn't grow up with it. on top of that, if they are successful at improving the food quality, that's going to come at a cost and they may not necessarily be able to raise prices commensurate. and then the last thing i'll throw at you, if this wasn't buying back the amount of stock it is and paying the above treasury bond dividend that it pays, this would probably be a 60-something-dollar stock. the problem is in the era of q.e. it's not a value stock when it clearly should be. i'd love to own this thing with a six handle but i have to pay a 9 handle because essentially what they're doing is returning so much cash to shareholders that no one's even looking at the problems. >> there are a lot of questions in there, so i'll try to get to some of them. in terms of valuation if you look at their historical ranges they've traded on ebidta in the 10 to 11 range now. historically. our price target is based on a 14 multiple in the next 12 months and in an era where they're moving to an asset light
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model in terms of franchising formats that is not a ridiculous multiple by any stretch. >> i'll concede that. >> so that's the first point. i guess in terms of your view on the brand, i know that there's a very strong view amongst the investment community that there's a whole generation that's been lost, but your times square survey just had mcdonald's i think five -- was the top ranked of the entire -- i don't know how many people you just surveyed. >> nine. >> but it clearly didn't fail that test. i hear you. and i'm not saying i eat at mcdonald's but i think that there's a portion of the population that's making investing decisions taking into consideration their opinion of mcdonald's as a brand and as the quality of the brand, and i just don't think that we are representative of the vast majority of north america. >> karen, great to get your perspective on this. karen short, deutschebank. let's go to the guy on the street. since you did the survey, guy. you talked to the people on the
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street. >> man of the people. >> we don't have to enjoy mcdonald's ourselves or eat at mcdonald's or visit mcdonald's to believe that incrementally you could see some up side just by some of the financial tweaks that they're doing and some of the menu additions they're adding. >> i'm sort of in the trb camp. i get the dividends. but 18 1/2 times forward earnings, given what growth we've seen from them, to me is now expensive. if you look at the stock it's had trouble at 103 for the last three years. it's been mired here at 95 bucks now seemingly for the last six months. their comps have been miserable. i don't think it's broken, but i don't think they're in the process of fixing it either. i just think it's dead money right here. >> coming up next, socially awkward or totally likeable? we've got your second half playbook on how the big social media stocks could be a winning trade in the second half. plus, greece and puerto rico may be top of mind but tim seymour's taking a look at another country that could be the real global threat for the u.s. markets. stick around. back in two. the conference call. the ultimate arena for business.
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here's what's coming up in the second half of "fast money." while greece takes over the headlines could there be another country that's ready to wreak havoc on the global markets? the one chart you've got to see. plus it's the running of the bears and they found their next target in the market. and get this, it's a sector that has been crushed this year. we'll tell you what that is. but first, the first half of the year's in the books. and it was a bumpy ride to say the least. for social stocks like twitter, linkedin and yelp. what's in store for the second half? josh lipton is taking a look at which social media players might be worth another look in the second half. josh. >> well, melissa, let's start with what is working. and that is facebook. facebook stock up more than 10% this year. bulls say it moves higher from here, pointing to the ramp of advertising in instagram, though even fans say there are some issues for investors to consider before carving out a stake specifically that ad prices won't increase at the same rate. >> you've seen a big increase in
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pricing over the last year as a lot of advertisers have come on to the platform and realized the value of facebook. but going forward we do expect price growth to slow. we think that is modeled into estimates today. but we would caution investors ton expect the same growth in pricing going forward. >> those caveats aside, facebook has a lot of fans. it is one of the top five tech holdings among hedge funds according to the latest data from goldman sachs. now, here is what isn't working. twitter has gone nowhere this year, and it's down some 13% in just the past 12 months. today dick costolo formally stepped down as ceo and jack dorsey stepped in as interim ceo. dorsey faces big challenges ahead. wall street demanding improved user growth and reacceleration in ad revenue greeting. linked in, that stock down more than 20% from its high of 271. the professional social network on its last earnings call offering up weak guidance.
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bulls, though, saying the service still valuable for users and customers and they point out that the stock does historically tend to perform better in the second half. melissa, back to you. >> thanks so much, josh lipton. what is going on with twitter and linkedin? we talked about twitter a lot. we haven't talked about linkedin. >> obviously the huge move to the down side. i think it's recovered some. but i still think linkedin is going to be one of those things that's going to be difficult to be replicated. i don't think it's a commoditized business. i get the valuation is extended to say the least but i do think in terms of the stock it troughed a couple weeks ago. i think you can own it. in terms of twitter we've talked about $35 being the line in the sand. yes, it breached that a couple times but i think you stay long twitter against 35. >> i agree with guy on linkedin. i think this is probably the most defensible social network. as you're coming out of college you have to be there these days. they've replaced so much of traditional job advertising. i staff my own company with it and almost everybody else i know does the same. and i think that's pretty common
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around the country and increasingly around the world. i would loan linked in. it's going to be volatile. >> let's talk about facebook. chris varone is head of technical analysis. he joins us on set. facebook, let's start with the one we know. what do you see in the charts? >> what we like about the picture number one is leadership. in sideways markets we want to own leader hip spp let's take a look at the picture. this has been an 18-month base. looks like we lost the picture. but just breaking out recently through 86. we think 86 on its way to 100. that's 15% from here. what we also like about the name is when you look at the chart it's held that 200-day moving average for the last 200 years. that upward sloping 200-day moving average. that's a sign of leadership. that's a sign of trend. it's a stock we want to own here. second one that we want to own within the tech sector is adobe.
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another name over the last two years every time it's tested that 200 it has held. recently breaking out through 80. 70 to 80 is the base. that counts to 90. 13 from here. a stock that we want to own as well. >> the context to these picks, do you like tech overall? >> let's think about tech as a sector. on monday 70% of the tech sector made a one-month low. that means you're typically pretty close to some type of a washout, some type of a bottom. and tech as a broader sector is also sitting right at the 200-day. we think we're probably close to a low. any undercut of the 200 we'd look to as a buying opportunity. so getting close to a washout i think these are two of the best names as we get ready for the back half of the year. >> chris varone, strategicus. facebook or adobe? >> facebook. in the case avenue doby the best days of the growth are behind it. facebook the international ad spend is 15%. i think that's what the street
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is saying. i bet that's very modest. their new ad formats are working. they're showing there's much greater resonance with their ad formats than even traditional. we talked about the scale of linkedin. these guys are so far ahead. 1.4 billion. no one can touch their scale. >> what would be the tech stock you would say say great place for the second half? >> microsoft. you've got a good dividend. they are switching their model a bit. i think there are some catalysts coming up. i don't think windows 10 is going to be as huge a catalyst as the switch from xp. i still like it against 44. >> on paypal let's get to morgan brennan for the details. >> paypal is acquiring xoom, the digital money transfer provider. doing that for $25 per share all cash, the equivalent of $890 million enterprise value for xoom. xoom closed today at $20.77 a share. so this represents a 21% premium
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over today's close. shares of xoom are halted right now in after hours because of this news. also hearing that xoom will operate as a separate service within paypal and this deal is expected to close in -- or they're hoping the deal will close in q4. paypal acquiring xoom enterprise value $890 million or $25 per share all cash. back over to you. >> morgan brennan, thank you. josh brown, are you aware of xoom? >> i'm aware of what they do and what they could represent to paypal. but i want to make a more important point. when you get a spinoff pitched, you have to spin this off, you have to spin this off, one of the primary reasons is we're going to have a new management team that's just focused on this one side of the business and they're going to be more aggressive and more open to opportunities, et cetera. so this is actually a very positive sign. if you're long ebay, you're looking forward to the paypal spinoff, and you believe this is going to add value, this is the exact you thing you want to see, mel. you want to see a new management
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team super focused on opportunities. that's what a deal like this represents in my eyes. i like ebay broadly. i like the paypal story. i think the platform has potential. >> still ahead, the crisis is greece. in greece is captivating the headlines. but could china be the real threat to the global markets? the shocking charts you have to see up next. plus, it's like christmas in july. the jobs report is coming tomorrow, a day early. and if history's any indicator, it could be a crazy day for the markets. we've got the details after the break. much more "fast money" straight ahead. rsettle. t-mobile agrees. never settle for verizon's overpriced gimmicks. try the un-carrier risk-free for 14 days you'll love it, or we'll pay for you to go back.
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welcome back. casino stocks soaring today. let's get to jane wells for the details. jane. >> melissa, it's sort of counterintuitive. gaming refrvenues in macaw fell 36% in june from a year ago. why did the stocks pop? look at wynn. wynn had its biggest one-day gain in over a year up 4% followed by las vegas sands up around 3%. mgm a point and a half. as bad as the revenues number were, stocks jumped because declines are slowing. stifel says a 36% drop is better than the 37% drop in may. 39 in march and april. down 49% in february. however, don't expect material improvement yet. another reason for the stock
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pump, nomura said the end of june showed surprising strength, and everyone is hopeful that business will improve because the chinese government will now allow mainland visitors to come twice a month instead of twice every month, twice every two months, cues me. to basically twice as often. and and they can stay a full week versus five days. stifel likes las vegas sands because even though it claims it has the greatest market presence in macaw it believes marina bay sands and singapore sort of insulates it. they also think mgm resorts is better poised because it has las vegas to insulate it. but it was wynn which has fallen so much that had the biggest gain today. back to you. >> thank you, jane wells. i spoke to nomura gaming analyst and he said this is a trading rally, it's not going last. >> it might not last. we talked about this last night and we spoke about -- pete talked about wynn, i said lvs, i said trade lvs against $50. it held it again. i don't know if it's going to last but i think it can last for another 10% to 15%. i think you stay long lvs here.
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>> i like wynn in this sxas for those reasons but also because they cut their dividend and the potential is either that they're going to put it back at some point in time and things are going to get a little better. they're very prudently managed, great management and in the space that's what i've got. >> i think the chinese have fallen in love with the stock market and margin trading and the casinos maybe don't hold quite as much appeal. >> you're in the dan nathan camp. >> you can't help these uninvestable stocks. totally uninvestable. >> i thought you were going to go so far as to say they're investing in the stock 345rk9 -- >> in ka seen poepz they're having a mania in china about equity trading that is the exact same thing that we had 15 years ago with our dotcom boom. the difference is that theirs is government mandated. they're literally being incentivized and every time the market falls xinhua, which is state news, comes out and pumps it back up again. i think as that as long as that is going on the gaming business of these companies that we're discussing probably remains lackluster.
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the corruption crackdown was a big factor as well. and when you look at the charts of these stocks, they're in these drastic down trends that show absolutely no sign of abating. when you're in a market that's with 3% of all-time highs, why are you scanning the 52-week low list? what are you doing even? >> that's a perfect segue because casino stocks, they've been volatile. but the entire chinese stock market has also been on a roller coaster ride. so tim, how concerned should investors p? >> if you want to correlate china to the u.s. stock market, what's going on globally, you shouldn't be concerned at all. if you don't have the stomach for volatility you should not be playing this market. if you look at the shanghai comp this is the a shares market. a big 10% move here followed by a 5% pullback, another 8% up here. ultimately what you see from here to here peak to trough is a 25% pullback down. if you look at vol right now if china we're at 2,000 december, 2008 volatility levels.
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china bottomed first in the global crisis, and it really was probably the most volatile place to play. the shanghai stocks are liquidity pumped. obviously as everybody just said on the desk this is a case where the government is forcing people into the equity market but to equate that with china macro and equate it with the u.s. stock market i think is the wrong thing to do. let's look at our next chart because we've got a case where we're trying to graph the against the -- well, we have -- basically if you compare the shanghai comp against the s&p, you have a case where -- there it is. thank you. you have a case where you can see if you look back on a one-year chart you've got a case where we're up 125%. this is a case where china's obviously blasted off into their own stratosphere. at the same time we all know what's going on. we've been talking every night about the s&p and how it's been stuck in the mud. if you think this pullback is indicative of what's going to happen here then you need to question a lot of the other initiatives of the u.s. macro. again, china macro i think is stabilizing. the china stock market is
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something that the policy makers should have done something about on the way up, don't think they're panicking on the way down, they will be cutting triple rs. they will be cutting rates. i own the a shares over the last couple of days. i don't think this is a long-term trade. i think this is a trade where i believe liquidity in china is not going o'a way. and this is not a barometer for the u.s. stock market. >> buyer of chinese stocks speaks. >> it's not for the faint of heart certainly but listen, what's concerned me is china has all these levers to pull. they pull a lot of levers stocks keep falling. they are going figure this out and you're going to get a rally. the a shares i would buy. it's $44. it could go as low as 38 but i'd still be a buyer here. >> still ahead chip stocks getting crushed over the last month and some traders betting there's more to come. plus the jobs report comes tomorrow before the long 4th of july weekend. if history's any guide, one index could get rocked. we've got the details when we come back. stay tuned.
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cases? we asked kensho, and here's what we found. the dow trades negative 56% of the time and has a more than 1% move in either direction about a third of the time. the nasdaq 100 much more volatile. it trades down only 45% of the time but has a move of at least 1% in either direction more than half of the time. so what are you guys expecting tomorrow -- why are you looking at me like -- >> you've got a 56% chance that it could go up or down. >> that's true. nine occurrences doesn't really -- >> makes total sense. >> but kensho is much smarter. >> if it's a holiday weekend forcing the thing to move around you're going to have a day when people are running off somewhere, there's going to be low liquidity in the markets, people are going to be defensive, going to be squaring their books the day before. tomorrow we've got greece on top of all that. and we've had strong data and a strong adp. i think it tells you exactly what the market's going to do tomorrow. >> yet right after the show, josh, you're on vacation. despite tomorrow's potential volatile day.
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>> what has two thumbs and will not be trading the jobs report? >> kensho? >> this guy. >> trb. >> guy actually looks at your thumbs and counted. >> i seriously have two. i'll tell what you you're all e alluding to, brian, the problem with that kind of data mining. it's really interesting stuff but i don't know how actionable it is because who tells you when you're in the 55% of the time or you're in the 45% of the time? and that's a sample size of 9. >> but we're trying to say that tomorrow could be a dangerous day. i think that's the point. >> the bottom line. >> we'll see. >> buy. >> i agree. >> i think the risk tomorrow is to the up side. steve grasso has held that level a number of times. it hit dead on there and bounce. the risk is to the up side. everyone's expecting a flush to the down side. i don't think you're going to get it. i think it goes up. next week i have no idea. tomorrow is an up day.
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>> texas instruments. mike kuo joins us from his favorite studio in massachusetts with the action. you're back, mike. >> i'm back right here. so two times the average daily put volume in texas instruments. and where we were seeing that was in the weekly, the july 31st weekly 52 1/2 puts. why were they look at the july 31st puts? texas instruments is due to report on the 22nd. they were spending about $2 for these things. so they were betting that the stock's going to be down at least 4%. however, people don't buy options just to break even. so i think it's likely that whoever was buying these puts actually thinks that the down side potential for this semi is potentially much more than 4%. >> so texas instruments. guy adami. >> listen, i know -- say what you want to say. get it out of your system. ask mike the question you're zieg dying to do it. >> i know where he is because he was there yesterday. he's at a studio in woods hole, massachusetts that happens to look like a chinese restaurant.
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>> it doesn't make it a bad place. >> it could be a chinese restaurant in woods hole, massachusetts as far as you know. >> man of mystery mike kuo. >> if you look at texas instruments, since basically middle of march the stock has made a series of lower lows, lower highs. right here $52 basically where it closed, reach there and mike's put buyers might look like geniuses. by the way, matt hooper was from woods hole. >> oh. >> yes, he was. >> yes, he was. >> thanks, mike. first move for tomorrow when we come right back. stay tuned. random? no it's all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement.
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weak in the knees? i've got a stock worth more than 25% on a game-changing joint replacement product. plus the stocks that are winning right now despite the greek drama. "mad money" is next. time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. tim. >> we talked about apple music. i think this is a game changer for the stock slowly. apple. i'm long. >> trb. >> i would avoid mcdonald's. >> wow. >> strong overweight. >> b.k. >> listen, there are some good things at mcdonald's. the french fries are fantastic. i think they're the best fries out there. yeah, their napkins are fine too. tomorrow morning a lot of data coming out. we've got the jobs number. tlt i think you buy it. and here's the reason why. oil going lower is going to be
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good for tlt. sow buy tlt. >> guy. >> mike kuo two days in a row there at woods hole. las vegas sands. you spoke to your analyst and know more. i think he's wrong. i think it gets higher from here. >> i'm melissa lee. sigh> my mission is simple -- t make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm trying to make you a little money. my job isn't just to entertain but to teach you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me @jim cramer. the woods. the woods are a strange place to be. right now investors think because of this great day we're out of the woods. well, wait a
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