tv Squawk Box CNBC July 2, 2015 6:00am-9:01am EDT
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>> live from new york where business never sleeps, this is squawk box. >> good morning, everybody. welcome to squawk box here on cnbc. i'm becky quick with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. if you're just waking up this morning and catching up on your smartphone or computer. americans are suffering from digital amnesia. that's right. the digital could be ruining your memory. i'm a believer in that. we'll explain why and tell you what you can do to stop it a little bit later this morning. but first, let's get to the business of the morning. the june jobs report. hiring is expected to remain solid. maybe cool a little bit after reaching a five month high in the last government report. forecasters say that the economy probably added 233,000 jobs in june. they're looking for the unemployment rate to have dipped to 5.4%.
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ahead of this take a look at the futures. you did see an update for the markets but now things are relatively flat based on the big swings we have seen this week around greece. it does look like we're looking at green arrows with the dow futures up 24 points. s&p futures up by 5 and nasdaq up by 10. >> greece negotiations between athens and creditors, that's off. at least for now. everything is in a holding pattern ahead of this referendum off the country's future that comes on sunday. it would back pension cuts and other measures and a no vote could trigger greece's exit from the euro despite the attempted reframing by the greeks. we have a lot more from michelle in athens and she'll be with us in a couple of minutes. >> i agree with the greeks. i don't think either one would result in an exit. >> they're saying a no vote means that we should go back for tougher negotiations and the other europeans are saying
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that's not what that means. >> i think both sides are -- do you remember suicide isn't painless? you're seeing -- >> slow and painful death is not. that's what they're watching. >> it would be faster if they do exit it i mean just the most basic services. developed countries can't go back to the stone age in three days. it doesn't work that way. >> what i'm seeing is the strange bed foalellows. i understand they're saying they're being so humane and i don't understand how just asking for reforms that make it possible that the money you're lending someone gets paid back. i don't see how is that so draconian. and even on fox last night -- i watch fox. i love brett and this guy did
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this piece, totally anti-europe. total anti-europe. talking all the parties in greece saying look what's happening here because of what the germans are doing to us. and unlike the people that we found yesterday that says we need to get this done. >> what's so amazing is you can understand why this is painful now but these are reforms that europeans have been asking for for years at this point. the greeks are repeatedly said no no no and said we're not going to change these things. it's like looking at this country. when you start talking about reform on social security it's easier to do and tell people when they're 30 or 40 years old. not when they're about to retire. it's difficult to tell somebody we're changing the rules of the game today when you're retiring tomorrow. that's inhumane. however you can look back at years and years of greek leadership that have not looked at what's happening here and realized that this is the reality. this is what you have to do. >> in this country we would look
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at if an area got in trouble we would feel sort of -- let's just divy things up but over there it's not that cohesive. germany, there's a lot of people -- it's almost like when people wanted to get out of their mortgage and you're saying i haven't bought all of this stuff so i can pay my mortgage -- we have been doing all the right things for so long and we've had our own brand of austerity and not paying everything forward. now you want to come along after living high off the hog. >> i don't disagree with you but it takes two to tango and if the goal is to get your money back. >> you're going to have to come up to the table. >> if you owe $100 to the bank you owe the money to the bank. >> a million dollars. >> but what i do think is they should lower taxes. some of the austerity has been insane. they should lower taxes. >> you know that you're never going to get me to admit to
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lower taxes. >> it's like talking to a brick wall. >> no way. i want more. >> not in greece. >> money should be with the government. >> but there are some of these austerity measures that seem like they're ridiculous and there's no way you could live with them but other issue need to be taken in advance and what bothered me about the statement coming back yesterday is we will agree to all of this with some exceptions and some were pension reforms and structural reforms that need to happen. >> there's a great conversation. at least all three of us will be able to talk about this all next week as it's happening. >> or not. >> or not. >> oh you guys are both out. >> we'll be here monday. >> sure fine good idea. that's fine. i'll just -- >> talk to yourself. >> yeah we have other news to tell you about. other crisis debt news no less. puerto rico paid off of its $1.9 million due this week. that's good news for an island on the brink of financial disaster. there's a number of payments still yet to come as the summer progresses. corporate headlines this morning, the ceo of electrolux
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says it would not make sense for either party but the company is still open for discussions. yesterday the doj filed a lawsuit to stop the swedish company from buying the ge unit saying the deal would hurt competition. ge says it will fight that lawsuit. >> it's a weird one, isn't it? >> that one is a weird too one. >> appliances. don't want anyone cornering that market. really? >> that i have not looked enough at. >> after being asleep for years the antitrust side of things is just like gone off the rails. we'll talk about that later but they have gone off the rails. >> for 25 years they did go to sleep. >> it's probably not a good idea
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to go like this and decide policy based on that so they ask the airlines you know you guys lost $33 billion over the past decade. why don't you all get together. get together. that was two years ago and then the minute they're together and they start controlling capacity and say you guys are all controlling capacity. did you guys decide to do that together? >> the stocks have been under pressure because analysts and wall street thought they were not controlling capacity well and they would be expanding too quickly. >> but what business like commercial real estate do you keep building or try to match demand with supply? or tim cook do you make so many iphones that you flood the market or do you want to be able to control pricing so you try to match demand and supply together. >> i will try and take some sort of side. what i will say is look they're stepping in. you look at justice and what's been happening. they're stepping in and it's always a pendulum swing. maybe things got too far this
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direction. >> at least they're not picking on industries that consumers already have a beef with. do you notice who they pick? cable. do you think anyone is going to say don't go after the cable company? because of their own experience with the cable guy and airlines and everybody they lost my bag. i have to pay for baggage now. everybody hates them. do you think that anybody is going to defend them? >> they're easy targets. >> exactly. what industry is not-ville villified. >> technology. >> google has gotten too profitable. they can find a way to hate them. banks, insurance companies, drug companies -- >> car companies. >> pick a hollywood movie. >> they like the car companies. >> they do. >> the thing on the airlines is its not just about capacity.
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there is nothing wrong with capacity to the extent you're making it a business the only issue is whether there's any form of quote unquote signaling either explicit or implicit in terms of what their plans are and what that does. >> they can do it with implicit? you have an e-mail saying we're going to make sure -- >> the explicit is -- obviously makes it easier to bring a case. there's a number of these conferences that there's quotes now where you see them having these conversations. it says we just ran into so and so and we say we're not going to do that flight. >> but when you have shareholders and analysts saying don't control capacity. >> you're only as smart as your
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stupidest competitor. >> but if they arrive at the same conclusion that we don't want to overbuild this time that doesn't mean they're all in a back room. that would be tough to prove. >> absolutely correct. >> i was massaging andrew -- well not literally. >> it didn't look look a massage. >> but i said you really don't want -- >> i need one after the show. >> i said you really don't want to take this side do you? it's an argument that you can't possibly take the side but you see what i'm saying. it's a tough -- i know how you feel about the airlines. >> it's a tough one. i want to see what comes out. i don't know the answer. >> we'll talk about it more next week. all of these conversations. oh that's right. now back to greece, chief international correspondent. >> correspondent is too long to fit. so it always says correspond t. and what's your first name that
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start with t? >> hi joe. >> good morning. >> greece is in full campaign. good morning. greece is in full campaign mode today for sunday's referendum. the question on the ballot fairly technical and complicated. to simplify it should greece accept the bailout agreement which would inform it on greece. we're going to learn some greek this morning. we can put it on the screen for you. oxi is no. you pronounce it oxi. yes is nai. we have that on the screen. we haven't so many nai posters but nai advertisements on television. they're brutal and show a lot of statements from tsipras and the finance minister over the last several months. all the promises that they made that right now appear to be completely falling apart.
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he was on national television last night urging greeks to vote no and telling them don't worry. this is not about the euro. this is about trying to get a better deal where once again the dutch finance minister is out right now doing an interview somewhere saying this is a vote on whether or not you want to stay in the euro. if you vote no we find it very hard to believe that greece can stay in the euro and, in fact a greece that doesn't reform does not even belong in the euro zone. the toaltynality is getting tougher. no is at 43%. what's interesting is when the question was asked do you believe greece should remain in the euro zone no matter the sacrifices, you get to 74%. on that core question guys this
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population still very much wants to stay with the euro. back to you. >> before you said that i said i bet you it's 70 michelle. that's what it came up to. yeah. >> michelle you get the feeling that that has been despite what we're hearing from greek leaders at this point? if they vote no that they are actually voting that they want out of the euro? that's what the european versus been trying to say but that's not what the greek leadership has said. >> i think the people know that already intuitivetyily. if you vote no or don't want the reforms you might have to leave the euro and the people against it said yeah so what. and the people that support a yes vote very much have been saying even before this whole campaign process started they believe this is about the euro.
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but despite it all the greek people demonstrate to me on a daily basis they think this is a vote about the euro. >> what happened ifs the yes vote goes through? i know that we have been watching tsipras and he thinks that he can maybe still come in and lead. is there someone else waiting in the wings? greek politics are so complicated. there's so many moving pieces. >> so he said he would stay and also that he would go. it's hard to know at this point. you talk to political analysts and they're like no way. if he loses this vote it's impossible for him to stay in that position and then the president of the country has a choice to make about whether or not they do elections. whether or not they try to form some kind of coalition government government. i think bottom line what everybody has to remember at this point the banks here are closed for a long time. they originally closed them for six days but that was before the agreement expired a couple of
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days ago. now they have to get a whole new agreement before things are going to get better with the ecb so regardless of what happens on sunday we're talking about weeks, maybe months with the banks being closed. >> that seems like an enormous hardship. if they vote yes and want to stay with the european union is there a chance that the ecb comes in and releases capital controls and floats them a little bit while they're going through the rest of this? >> i suppose that's possible but i think what is becoming incredibly clear from all the statements that have come out of european leaders they don't trust this government and they don't trust alexis tsipras, the prime minister and i know they don't trust the finance minister and they are overtly pushing for a change in leadership saying we can't trust these people. we need a new negotiating team if there's going to be another deal for the greek people. >> all right. michelle, thank you. we'll check in with you later
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this morning. it's not just greece that the markets are watching but the june jobs report coming up in two hours 15 minutes. joining us is steven friedman. the head of cross asset strategy at ubs wealth management and anthony chan who is chief economist at chase. and we know this jobs report is important because people wonder what the fed is going to be doing next. >> i think the fed realizes the economy is gradually improving and they're all barring any negative international development to change your mind. my guess would be september but if things flair up perhaps they wait until december. i look for this number to be up 250,000. i look for average hourly earnings to go up about .2% and i look over the next several months for the labor force participation rate to continue to creep higher. i did work look at consumer confidence and you saw yesterday the consumer confidence move to
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the second highest level since this economic expansion began and when that goes up the labor force participation tends to go up. over a several month period i see that number moving higher. >> what's the market reaction? if the numbers come in at 250 or above what's the reaction? if it comes in at 200 or below what's the reaction? >> the neutral zone is probably 210 to 280. the current consensus number is probably lower than the shadow number which has probably been creeping up in recent days with stronger data. so i think given that greece is such an important factor here it does take a number outside of pretty big range to jolt the market in one direction or another. >> if it's a really hot number is that something the market is concerned about? great news for jobs growth but
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would the street start thinking does that bring the fed in faster? >> a strong number could be a little bit of a negative for the markets in terms of the knee jerk reaction. i don't think it matters longer term. i think you look at this from a quarter head perspective it just means that the economy is strengthening and the earnings picture will continue to be strong and that's going to be driving things but i do think you could get a little bit more negative on the news. >> you pointed out that you think the fed is ready to move. probably september i'm guessing unless there's something that happens on the international front. greece is what we are talking about every day. is that enough of something to keep the fed at bay? >> greece is certainly one of those factors. you mentioned in the show earlier puerto rico. you put both of those together and they flair up. >> you think puerto rico. >> everybody is excited the payments were made but over the next several months they have to have a restructuring of some sort. that's still going to drag on.
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it's not as severe yet but they could force the fed's hand to postpone it and go in december. you heard bill dudley saying he wouldn't be surprised if it's september. >> if they're waiting for the perfect time. if you're waiting for the entire global to be calm and things to be headed your direction i don't know how you ever get out of the box and start. >> that's precisely why i believe and i indicated they can l do something this year: the question is whether they do two or one. the consensus is do two fed hikes. if i were to pick one outcome it would be one fed tightening this year. >> think that would be september? >> if i only had one choice i would say december is the more likely scenario and next year they raise rates by about 100 basis points in addition to whatever they do this year. >> >> he says this is the
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correction that the market has been sitting here doing nothing. earnings growth has been improving over that period of time. other people say we're still way out. we had robert on yesterday that's concerned about valuations. >> she was saying sell it. >> it's weird. 7 to 9%. >> off the high which is even less decline than here. >> it's a weird call. >> it's fair to consider the first half of the year as a consolidation at these levels and i don't think you get back to a phase where you have multiple expansion leading the market a lot higher but the market will start focussing on the relatively good earnings picture. might say we have an upside of 6.5%. that is reasonable returns and that's really predicated on the
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economy and the earnings pictures remain robust. >> if you you're looking at growth. >> we'll probably see something around 2.5%. last year 2.4% and one point on the equity market one of the things looking at the yield curve, when you see it steepening and it occurs because long yields go up that has been consistent with about a 10.5% rate in return. while i think that's too aggressive, i wouldn't be surprised if you get something in the neighborhood of 5 to 8%. >> we have major ground to make up in the second half of the year. >> 5 to 8%. if sentiment starts to get positive could occur in less than 60 days. >> thank you for coming in. >> steven, thank you. >> coming up the justice department investigating whether airlines are colluding to keep air airfares high.
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>> a prince giving away -- >> to his own charity. >> extraordinary. and whether this is the right time to be buying real estate. but first, here's a look back at this date in history. ♪ a new season brings a new look. a chance to try something different. this summer, challenge your preconceptions and experience a cadillac for yourself. ♪ ♪ take advantage of our summer offers. the 2015 cadillac srx, a crossover with space safety, and style. lease this from around $339 per month. ♪ ♪ when you're not confident your company's data is secure the possibility of a breach can quickly become the only thing you think about.
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prince plans to give away his $32 billion fortune to charity. the prince wants to do this to build a world of tolerance, acceptance equality and opportunity for all. the money will be pledged to his charitable organization but he says that he is look at causes around the globe. he says saudi arabia and the middle east was his priority but it will also go to international causes. >> previously his charity has partnered with the bill and melinda gates. >> i can't see a mention of the giving pledge. >> is he listed? we'll check it out. >> we do commend him on this. that was a weird statement -- what did he say about tolerance and stuff? >> he said that he is looking at a better world of tolerance, acceptance equality, and opportunity for all. >> see i think a cynic --
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>> he's not a signer. >> he's not a giving pledge signer. >> they would look at saudi arabia's role there's an extreme form of islam that they have covertly backed a little bit to some extent what is it? and it's just -- i'm glad that he's doing that but saudi arabia could probably do more in terms of not -- how many of the guys were saudi? 18 out of 19 or something. >> a significant portion of them. he says he wants to contribute to the elimination of poverty and famine to support development, health and education in the most deprived community. >> he's a good guy. i like when he comes on. i take him at face value. >> $32 billion. giving away his entire fortune. that's incredibly impressive. >> i'll take the good side of it now for. in the meantime we have a little bit of a debate this morning.
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>> god forbid you do that with a u.s. company. >> the justice department is investigating whether u.s. airlines worked together illegally to keep airfares high by signaling plans to limit flights. they're calling on carriers to explain decisions to deliver the number of seats they offer and what they said about those plans. american airlines delta, continental and southwest confirmed that they have been in receipt of the letters from the doj and they all say they're cooperating fully with the investigation as we mentioned earlier. the big thing is going to be whether or not there are e-mails or other documentation of people saying, ran into so and so at a conference. heard so and so say this. we're not going to do this. the bigger question to me is whether there are e-mails that say we're looking and we see american is no longer going to be running this flight and then
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whether it matters or not. >> that's not solution. >> it's going to take a very big smoking gun and gets these guys in the room. what happens with steve jobs and some of the guys that agreed not to hire or approach each other. >> that was -- that was straight up. >> did you know the knee jerk oil price decline reaction did he say it again? or were they just summarizing what he said last time? >> he's been on this kick. i remember talking to his people when i wrote that column a couple of months back and prior to that he already said it prechristmas. >> to me that's the most similar listic -- simplistic in the world. when oil prices go up you can't automatically raise prices because they might not stick. so you can't just raise -- >> unless you have a fuel surcharge. there are other industries -- >> there is a fuel surcharge in the airline industry. >> at times.
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>> at times they have tacked it on and don't take it off. meaning when the fuel price goes down. >> i use fresh direct and there's a fuel surcharge, something like 75 cents. >> we can have utilities. maybe the internet ends up a utility. the airlines were totally regulated and we decided that wasn't the right way to do it. but if you want to limit profits for companies to make sure that consumers are in some way better served. we can do it to every industry. but history told us it's better to let things -- >> i would like to see the capitalistic system work the only thing i would say is transport is a very complicated thing. it's like using the train. >> amtrak. >> it's tough. >> tough entry. >> but you have to deal with the government to get the slots. >> but if you can get more planes in the sky it's better for the economy. >> but you can't fly -- >> if you can get these trains
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going properly look what's happening and those have transformed the country. they'll never pay them back. >> you have to subsidize that. >> and we have to figure out what we want. >> you can't fly empty plains around. >> i don't want to suggest that we do. >> everybody goes bankrupt and then justice department is on their side and then go against them again. >> do you remember being on a plane when you could hay on three seats in a row. >> peanuts. >> i know. >> i don't know how you feel about this but there's a lot of municipalities right now -- >> say it don't spray it. >> i need to anuns yagsciate. there's a lot of municipalities that do it. they want airlines flying there so they guarentee a certain number of seats for the year. the actual town will pay the
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airline for that so they can have the transport. it becomes a very complicated issue. >> do you know do the trains in germany make money? >> i can't imagine on a operating basis maybe they do but when you actually were to you know add in the infrastructure cost there's no way. there's no way. >> you're going 320 kilometers per hour. over 200 miles per hour and when one comes the other way and you're not expecting it. >> right. >> okay. we're going to now talk about the second half and what's open for play. we got diana talking about housing and what we have in store. diana. >> it is all about prices for both buying and renting. home prices are still rising but at a slower pace than this time last year. not the case for rent which is are at record highs in some markets as demand far outpaces supply. wres we're seeing more multifamily construction and delivery of those units buttock
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but occupancy is at an all time high. the key for buyers is twofold. first the mortgage market. rates are expected to rise slightly and new rules for lenders going into effect for the second half of this year could stem access to credit. second, supply. housing starts are rising but at a far slower pace than demand. >> and builders are trying to hold on to their pricing power and they can do that a lot more easily when supplies are slim but some are starting to give putting up those lower priced homes which could stoke overall sales in the second half of this career. >> you mentioned in the report that there's new rules that could actually limit the ability to get mortgages. what kind of rules are you talking about? >> i'm not going to use all the letters. make sure that borrowers can repay and everything is completely transparent. they already put them off one month. they delayed them. but we do expect them to come
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into effect this fall. everyone is going to have every t crossed and every i dotted and for some borrowers it may be harder but overall it should help the market in general to get those good borrowers in and not see any more trouble down the road. >> you heard the last part of diana's report they're trying to limit supply. >> i heard that too. >> i wonder if they're colluding too. >> did the department of justice look into that? >> thanks. coming up, the sound of money, billy joel -- what is your knuckle head husband doing today? >> he's djing -- i was going to talk about this chairs. he's going to guest deejay on ozzie's bone yard. >> he's a metal head. >> he is. >> it's ozzie. >> who names a band megadeath? what would prompt someone to call themselves mega death. >> anyway he's going to be doing this on the ozzie osborne
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channel. >> what time? >> i'm going to find out. i'll talk about it in chairs. >> billy joel breaks a major record at madison square garden last night. that story when squawk box comes back. the life behind it. ♪ those who have served our nation have earned the very best service in return. ♪ usaa. we know what it means to serve. get an auto insurance quote and see why 92% of our members plan to stay for life. what do you got to offer us today? ♪balance transfer that's my game♪ bank you never heard of, that's my name♪ haa! thank you. uh, next. watch me make your interest rate... disappear. there's gotta be a better way to find the right card. whatever kind you're searching for, creditcards.com lets you compare hundreds of cards to
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hey honey. huh. the good news is my hypertension is gone. so why would you invest without checking brokercheck? check your broker with brokercheck. ♪ >> welcome back everybody. we were just talking before we came over to the chairs about something happening this weekend. my husband, is taking over a
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spot as a guest dee jay. it's called the ultimate sinner. it's on ozzie boneyard which is on sirius satellite radio. fans take over a half hour of programming. they get to play five of their favorite songs and talk about why they think they're so great. he's doing it today at thursday 3:00 p.m.. it will air a couple more times. >> any repeat out of the five? all different groups? >> he wouldn't let me listen. >> he won't tell us which ones they are. >> no i know this theme of it. >> i don't know the songs but i know the theme of why he picked those five songs. >> is iron maiden one of them. >> kansas is not metal. >> they're all ozzie songs aren't they? he told me the theme. i know what the theme is. >> iron maiden.
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>> he wouldn't let me listen to it. >> xm. >> that was never my thing. did you ever see ozzie when he was young? he was like hot and i look at him now and i say what happened. not that there's anything wrong with that. >> happens to the best of us. >> i just saw an ozzie impersonator. >> doing young ozzie. >> old ozzie. i thought it was him and he was serenading this group of women who were having a birthday or something. >> you have the strangest life. >> it was very strange. it really was. >> real quickly, billy joel had more concerts than anyone else at madison square garden. maybe he'll come on sometime. >> he beat out elton john. that's his record he took over. >> is that true? i was going to mention elton john. i reentered my phase last week by downloading tumble weed connection. >> he played good-bye yellow
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brick road. >> i just keep hearing you saying you're downloading music. are you buying it per song? >> i also download all this old cat stevens stuff. >> i love that. >> i got to get you streaming. just out of cheapness, how much money have you spent -- if you buy the album how much did it cost you? >> i don't get involved with finances. >> you have nothing to do with finance. personal finances. >> i try to make sure nothing bounces. that's all i do. other people pay things. >> way to go. >> when we come back if you're a hedge fund manager that wants to play greece you know our next guest, the man every investor consults before making a move joins us live from athens when squawk box returns. ♪
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these two oil rigs look the same. can you tell what makes them so different? did you hear that sound? of course you didn't. you're not using ge software like the rig on the right. it's listening and learning how to prevent equipment failures, predict maintenance needs, and avoid problems before they happen.
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>> welcome back to cnbc. i'm in athens dprees with a special guest. she the founder of the investment group. big investment fund here in the southern part of europe. i'm sure they all see you now and are saying hi george. good to have you here. >> good to be here. hi to everyone. >> you're one of the leaders of the yes campaign. >> we in favor of yes because that's the only way for hope and future for the greek people. >> how did we get here? we talked months ago and neither one of us thought it would come to this situation. >> it's pollitics that caused all of this. democracies are funny sometimes but they're the best we have.
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when come people sell hope to hopeless people and they don't know what they're doing and don't have a plan and they're hijacking people's vote that's how you end up here. >> when you say don't reveal their actual plan do you think there's something else at work here? >> it's did you havefficult to answer that. but there's two answers to your question, they either had a plan which is not what they executed or what they stated or they're improvising along the way but we all have to understand that their tactics didn't work. there's no way you get money without a reform packet and there's no way you can sustain this government in place the day after sunday. >> are you convinced he'll stay in office or leave office if you loses the vote on sunday? >> he hasn't stated he will re-sign. he has said it in different
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ways. i understand the finance minister stated today and i think he's in fayesor ofvor of a no. and we expect him to re-sign the day after the result on sunday. >> he told every hedge fund manager don't worry. it's going to get scary but we're going to get a deal done. do you think he was honest? >> no i don't because i will remind you what happened a few months ago. i don't recall the exact date but he was campaigning or meeting people in greece and he didn't know that the cameras were on and he said to the people that were around him, you know oh how great of a job you're doing and he said i hope you guys continue to support us when we go for the rapture and it took days for him to explain what he meant but statement
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likes that prove there was a plan that they never fully revealed to the greek people. >> thank you. >> thank you for having me on the show. >> continue doing what you're doing. you're helping a lot. >> thank you. >> back to you guys. >> thank you very much. that's michelle live in athens covering everything happening with the greek situation there. when we come back this morning, we'll be talking to our nation's largest national commercial real estate firm and find out which areas of the country are hot and which ones are not. stay tuned. squawk box will be right back.
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welcome back to "squawk box" ab everyone. there's a new study out that finds we're losing our ability to remember things. the internet is to blame. researchers coined this digital amnesia. people aren't committing things to memory because they trust a digital device to store and remember it. not a big surprise anybody who's had cell phones for years. do you remember phone numbers or do you just hit the button? >> yeah. >> i worry -- you know i worry because i after "jeopardy" because i'm a loser. >> i like "jeopardy." >> he thinks it's square and non-millennial. but there's things i know that i can't remember quickly. >> that takes you longer than before. >> yeah. like a lot of names. it scares me. because i wonder is that one of the first signs of --
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>> aging? >> yeah. or something worse. >> i figure it's you have so much information stuffed in your head at some point, you're going to lose some of it. >> it's things i thought i knew pretty well. >> like what? >> it could be anything. if you watch it you'll see. i can't remember. >> in the meantime we're going to talk about real estate. perhaps it's not all about location, location location anymore. commercial real estate investors are hunting for yield. and according to markets investors are looking to secondary markets like phoenix and minneapolis and denver. ha hasim naji is here. help us understand this. i think this says something about the markets there. and maybe we're headed towards another bubble. >> good morning. thanks for having me on the
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program. those are legitimate questions. and we get those questions from our clients all over the country all the time. because in past cycles when the secondary locations, the market goes away to the degree it should be there. and that usually seems to be a sign of market correction. we're not seeing that in this cycle at all. because the lending part of the equation is staying disciplined. they're wanting to finance more and more but the underwriting of the asset itself the buyer is staying disciplined given it wasn't too long ago when we had the financial crisis and over-leveraging of commercial real estate. and so you couple that -- >> sorry. go ahead, please. >> i was just going to say you couple that with the fact that you mentioned the job growth is beginning to broaden. we're seeing every metropolitan area add a lot of jobs with
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little, if any new construction. it gives us confidence we're not heading for a bubble yet. >> fair enough. if this was a baseball game what inning would we be in? >> a macro level for the whole industry, i would say maybe sixth, seventh potentially. but that's really kind of a generalization. if you look at commercial real estate as a whole in an asset class at a time when we're seeing the job growth of 3 million jobs a year, pretty steadily happening, even for apartments. diana olick in your segment mentioned earlier the supply side of a multifamily is not overzealous by any stretch of the imagination. we're not seeing any office buildings or anything like that. that really gives investors a lot of confidence. with yields that are incredibly
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competitive to where else you can put capital, and that's what's driving the market. >> do any of the trends around where millennials are living these days both in terms of moving more towards cities away from suburbs, and the rent versus buying equation which is to say they're still renting, does that have any impact on your business? >> it absolutely does. we've seen a tremendous amount of new construction of urban-type products, mid-rise high-rise in the sector. pretty much the only type of multifamily being built these days. and a lot of the 20-somethings are renting the small units. mostly it's the 30-somethings that are getting the professional service jobs the number one job creating sector in the country and wanting to live in urban centers choosing to rent versus own. we're also seeing a lot of empty nesters that want to rent in urban areas. but that doesn't mean the workforce housing, the vast
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majority of rental product out there is also not very tight. i mean, those are pretty much fully occupied with good rent growth. people are opting to rent and not being able to qualify for home buying. the market in general is strong and part of the commercial real estate investment. >> we're in the sixth or seventh inning. we appreciate your time this morning. thank you. >> thanks. coming up -- i was going to tell you about the top stories. final jeopardy. this retailer recently closed 130 -- >> radio shack. >> target. >> and it was so obvious. and we missed our mark and two persons missing. the champion got target. i remember that. coming up, this morning's -- >> did they say target? >> i can remember that.
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it's jobs thursday. a key question on investors' minds, will september rate hikes still be in play after today's employment report? we'll break down the numbers straight ahead. reaction to e the return to cuba. carlos gutierrez outlines the path for relations that caught him by surprise. don't leave for your july 4th vacation just yet. >> you need help with the grilling? >> no, thanks clark. don't have one. i'll get the tongs. >> we will break down the cost
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of your holiday barbecue and talk gas prices before you hit the road. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ live from the beating heart of business, new york city, this is "squawk box." >> i'm okay with all metal all the time today. the knuckle head husband appearance on bone yard. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. becky's husband is going to be on -- at what time? >> 3:00 p.m. today. >> on ozzy's bone yard. >> and monday at noon. and july 4th on saturday. >> has he ever jumped into a mosh pit that you know? >> not that i've witnessed. >> i'm sure he has. >> he hasn't told you about it. >> i'm joe kernen with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin. markets are closed tomorrow in
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observance of independence day. so today we're calling it jobs thursday. expecting an increase of 233,000 in the non-farm payrolls. and unemployment expected to tick down to 5.4%. u.s. equity futures at this hour have that to think about and also what's happening in greece. seems like the last couple of days once you saw how dire the situation can get, it seems like something has to give for the greek people. let's tell you about some corporate stories this morning as well. tesla shares moving higher in pre-market trading. company about 500 model s sedans since the second quarter. that's up from the previous quarter. also xoom being bought by paypal. that's a 21% premium to yesterday's closing price. move comes ahead of paypal's
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spinoff from ebay. and the next version of apple's iphone 6 could offer better speeds and battery life. that's based on elite photo. shows a new qualcomm chip in a prototype. that could double the download speeds from the current iphone 6 models. pretty awesome. >> and we were just talking about trains about 45 minutes ago. developing story in tennessee to tell you about. this is not a passenger train. a csx train carrying a toxic gas partly derailed and fought fire this morning outside of knoxville. seven officers were hospitalized after breathing in fumes from the blaze. more than 5,000 residents of maryville, tennessee, have been evacuated. the evacuation could last 48 hours. we will bring you updates as we get them on the situation. greece is in a holding pattern until sunday's referendum on austerity measures. michelle caruso-cabrera joins us
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live once again from athens. what do you have to tell us about what's happening towards the vote on sunday? >> well the country is in full campaign mode which we'll tell you more about in a second. i want to show you guys like i usually do show you the newspapers. this time i'm showing you a magazine. this is called "crash" political commentary magazine. it's always been called "crash." they've got tsipras on the cover dressed as a kamikaze pilot. here's a newspaper big screaming headline called what a shame. it shows the pensioners in line yesterday and a woman's got an arm at her throat because she's trying to get her money and it was a melee at locations where the elderly were lined up for their money. and then this is a pro-government newspaper. and you've got pictures of angela merkel christine lagarde. and the headline says the engine of terror.
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so you can imagine the tonality here depending on what side of the question that you're on. so you've got two campaigns going on full tilt right now. there's the ohi campaign. that is no. that's encouraging greeks to vote no. the question on the ballot is about officially whether or not to accept a bailout agreement. it's a very complicated wordy question. and the yes advertisements as well. and the yes campaign is saying listen, this is about the future of greece. this is about whether or not to stay in the euro. and as the day goes on every big heavy hitter for the last 20 30 years of greek politics is coming out and making statements trying to sway the greek voters as we head into sunday guys. it's going to be a pivotal event for this country. because european leaders have made clear if there isn't a yes vote they're going to think
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really, really hard about whether or not they're going to bother with further bailout negotiations with this current government that's in place. back to you. >> okay. going to be interesting. on this three-day weekend, michelle. and not only different languages, don'tly different alphabet. you wonder how hard that would be. just hard. lot of work. anyway, greece may be rattling the markets. the monthly jobs report will be front and center today. we have chief investment officer at u.s. trust bank of america private wealth management. how are you? >> morning. >> what do you think today? >> another 200,000-plus number. that's certainly been the trend. we don't get it every month, but that's the chance. that's the best guess at this point. >> 80%? >> i wouldn't put it that high. obviously if it's not going to
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be september, it's more likely to be later than earlier. that's the best case right now. you could always be surprised. that's certainly my forecast. >> anything that could be totally unexpected today? i mean ethe first quarter -- >> anything can happen with the employment reports. two more before the september meeting. >> with everything else the numbers have to be weird. >> it's clear when you look at not just the adp number but jobless claims employment based tax receipts. even the confidence number. they're all pointing to continued improvement and transmit over 200,000 a month. that doesn't mean we get that every month. and two more months before the september meeting. >> if we did 200-plus today and then the next time they go in september. >> that's the game plan of course if greece opens up of course the markets can change. there's always other things. >> you think that's actually -- let's assume something doesn't work out correctly.
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will the world blow up from that? >> i don't think so. obviously the exposure directly is pretty minimal. it's all a question broadly. so i'm assuming it's not a big deal for markets and it comes back to the labor market in particular. and we keep getting 200,000 a month in employment, employment comes down. and that's number one on the list. >> what's the most important thing that is in the front of your mind in deciding what to tell clients to do with their money right now? >> it's twofold. first one is buy market liquidity. it's hard to get a handle on exactly what does that mean? there's less liquidity today. i'd point to this. if you look at the weighted average flow in terms of yield that's gone into bond market mutual funds since 2008 that number is 2.75%. we hit the 2.75% on the 10-year yield sooner rather than later,
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that's that big rotation everyone is talking about from fixed income to something else. and that has reverberating event basically on the entire fixed income market. and then we'll see what the liquidity factor is. i think 2.75% is a key number. i'm with jim -- we're in jim in terms of september. >> people trade out of that and go to stocks? >> no. they're going to the parking lot first. they'll go from fixed income raise their cash allocations, get a little nervous. they haven't seen this in a little while. it's picking up steam. yields are rising. then they'll make an assessment on where we are in the economy. and that's where the market place today has a little bit too much negativism out there. wage gains are 2.3% to 3% in terms of growth. that's above the 10-year yield. that's why the fed really is hoping they can act in september. >> so you would tell clients buy american stocks at this point? don't buy american stocks? buy european stocks at this
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point? >> let's take advantage of the market weakness in europe right now. on a hedge basis. you don't want to be 100% exposed to the currency. japan is probably the greatest shareholder value story out there. >> still? >> still. long way to go. very much long way to go there. not such a good long-term story as it relates to ten years because of the aging demographics. but in the next business cycle, a good story. europe, we pick our spots. but the weakness is going to benefit the entire sector there. even in a slowing china world. and last but not least on the u.s. side more the small caps. the large caps are fairly valued. but that's using some very deeply depressed earnings numbers in '08. >> and we had -- now i'm stuck with you again. who was it the other day to stay under 3%. three years from now we'll still be under 3%. no way? >> this week.
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>> yeah it was this week. it was somebody. somebody did say that. yeah. >> whoever that may be is looking at a world that is stuck a moderation. that's credible. >> he wasn't really saying -- >> in the 6:30 half hour, i think. >> things will get better it's just what our view of where interest rates are supposed to be will be different in the future because of the larry summers savings. >> secular stagnation. normally yields will likely being a lot lower than what we're used to but higher than here. >> because i took it as a positive. you don't have to worry about stocks ever being -- >> well i think if economic conditions are such that you're truly in a stagnation world, certainly in terms of potential
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growth and the stock market -- >> that's another thing, productivity growth is miscalculated right now. >> see i'm partial to french. i'm very french -- >> you're parisian. >> anyway thank you. >> thank you. >> a little bit of deal news to tell you about. another deal in the health care world. centene company buying health net. the deal valued at about $78.50 per share. 21% premium over yesterday's close. 26% premium if you do it on a june 1st basis. for which health net which focuses on medicaid services. >> andrew, i'm sorry. i called your husband a knuckle head a couple times. that wasn't right to do.
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but he is informing me he jumped into a mosh pit with your brother at a megadeath concert. >> i didn't realize that. >> so -- >> wow. >> it was megadeath. it was a mosh pit and your brother was the enabler. they both did it. >> brad goes with him to concerts. i don't. >> oh it's brad. >> who do you think initiated the mosh pit? >> matt. >> okay. wow. coming up carlos gutierrez is going to be weighing in on the change in cuban policy that caught him by surprise. and then rick and steve are together in chicago. live with their job predictions. we will let the fireworks begin before we ever get to july 4th. speaking of fireworks, we have everything you need to know about food and gas prices ahead of your july 4th barbecues and road trips. stick around. we've got a lot more on this squawk thursday.
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america's first embassy in havana in 54 years is expected to open later this month. our next guest had had an evolving view since president obama announced renewed diplomatic ties with cuba. carlos gutierrez is here. first joined us in december saying let's see how things are going to be going in six months.
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one year from now this could backfire in a very big way. he joined us again in may with a slightly different view. 20 years from now cuba will be a very different place, but the next two years there will be ups and downs. he recently wrote an op-ed supporting the policy in cuba. from a government to government perspective, there has not been so much communication between the united states and cuba in 50 years. i never expected negotiations to get this far. carlos gutierrez is chair at the albright stone bridge group. good morning to you. >> good morning. >> we have now sort of walked through your revolving views. >> given history and given the fact this has been tried by a lot of presidents i think it was right to be skeptical because any time it's been tried, it hasn't worked. we've never gotten this far. and, you know, we're opening up an embassy in havana in a few
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weeks. something that we haven't had since the early '60s. so this is real progress. having said that it's very gradual process. so there's still a long way to go but there's forward momentum. i think that's positive. >> it's been described -- the obama administration's policy on this has been described as a give everything for nothing policy. do you agree with that view? >> look it's so early. this policy has been going on for a few months, right? it was announced on december 17th. the first meeting took place in january. so i find it interesting that we show a total lack of patience for a policy that's been around for a few months but we're patient with a policy that's been around with a policy that's been around for 50 years. we need to give it time.
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we need to give it space and let things play out and let the talks continue. >> and when you think about it as a business prospect you know i know you said 20 years from now it'll be a different place. would you put money on the line in that country right now? >> i think you have to be very cautious. the first question is can you put money. because the embargo is still in place. what the president has done is opened up some categories through executive action. so for example, you can supply small businesses. you're able to supply construction materials. the question is does the cuban government have in place or does cuba have in place distribution systems to be able to get there. so at the beginning you have to be extremely cautious. you have to go very slow. at times you should think of this as establishing a brand to monetize it over the long haul.
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but no this isn't a -- this isn't go to havana and make a killing next year. you've got to think long-term and be cautious. >> is there a single event or issue? did you talk to someone that you're close to or something that caused this change of heart? because it sounds like a really big change from the last time you were on. and the people that aren't in favor of this say that not one thing has been done in terms of asking for a change in the human rights policies in cuba or dissidents or anything we sort of look -- and suddenly i'm not hearing that from you. and give the administration patience. and it's very early. this is 180 degrees from where we were. what was it that caused you to re-evaluate? >> that's fine. and that's a fair point. you know when you -- i was born in cuba. and that's the biggest story of my life is having left cuba in the revolution. there isn't a day that goes by
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that i don't think about this. you know there was a -- the cuban independence hero jose martine once said a man's responsibility is to be a man of his time. maybe 20 30 years ago our policy was right for the time. i think that it's time to look to the future. and if that does mean a change if it does mean saying i'm changing my point of view then that's fine. is the important thing is to be people of our times. and i think the time calls for a new policy for a new vision for a new view. >> and other people that previously probably had said this shouldn't happen there seems to be a softening in a lot of places. because maybe the progress does come, you know whether it's slow at least, you know you can't do it from just not talking for 50 years or
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whatever. >> mr. secretary, there's been some speculation in terms of your evolution in views about whether you might want to become the ambassador. >> no. >> is that something on your list of things to do? >> no no no. i can't say no a hundred times because there's no time. but the answer is absolutely no. i don't think about that. i'm not doing this because -- >> why not? >> -- i have an alternative. because it's not on my mind. i'd like to help cuban entrepreneurs. i'd like to help people start a business. i'd like to help them have a better life. that's all i'm thinking about. and there are a lot of people in the democratic party who would make very good ambassadors. >> so if not you, who? >> well we have one in there now jeff de laurence. the paper this morning mentioned chris dodd. there are a lot of people who could be ambassador to cuba. i think that will be taken care
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of but from my point of view that's the last thing on my mind. i'm glad you asked that question. >> okay. mr. secretary, we appreciate your time your perspective, and all your thoughts on cuba. we hope to continue this conversation with you as things progress there. thanks. >> thank you. >> if not you, who? what is that? >> there's a great drink called yoo hoo. you don't remember it? >> chocolatey water. >> if not you, who. >> i got it. >> taking all the good things out of chocolate milk and leaving what's left. >> if you do something, it happens. coming up on this jobs thursday, a new trailer for universal's steve jobs movie hit the internet yesterday. we're going to show you the first look. pretty awesome. michael fassbender as apple founder. next.
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listen up... i'm reworking the menu. mayo, corn dogs... you are so out of here! ahh... the complete balanced nutrition of great tasting ensure. with nine grams of protein... and 26 vitamins and minerals. ensure. take life in. welcome back. the first look at michael fassbender as steve jobs hit the internet yesterday in the forms of a any biopic. it's a biological picture.
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the script -- biographical. the script was written by -- andrew, you didn't -- >> not me. people call you aaron all the time. >> it was written by aaron sorkin. >> they call me aaron but i don't call him andrew. >> it also features seth rogan as steve wozniack. here's a look at it. >> how come ten times in a day i hear jobs is a genius. what do you do? >> musicians play their instruments. i play the orchestra. >> okay. that's deep. the movie is set for release by universal pictures in october. jen ver universal is owned by cnbc parent company comcast.
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>> this was based on walter's book? >> well in fairness, it'd be interesting to see what walter has to say. they optioned the book. >> walter isaacson we should say. >> they did option that book. i think walter might say or others might say that aaron sorkin's sort of taken the story in some other directions that go beyond the book. >> but it's a movie. there's a lot of people someone suggested you should play this person. you know, you could be insulted a lot of times. like, i love steve wozniack and everything, but somebody said you should play steve wozniack i would -- i guess seth rogan. who's insulted more at this point? what? >> it's great parts for great actors. >> what you think i look like him is what you're saying? >> if you say -- i would hope they would say i should play -- >> well all of us want to be cast. when you had too big to fail all of us wanted to be cast as
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someone famous and beautiful. >> yeah. i get it. >> i wouldn't want to be cast as ben bernanke. what if they picked pee-wee herman, would you be happy? >> what? >> no. >> put a bow tie on him. >> nick nolte. >> after the dwi. thank you. when we come back this morning, jobs predictions from cnbc's own blues brothers. steve leisman and rick santelli. they are together in chicago. let the fireworks begin. we'll be right back. ee in ten college students drop out. but how can you spot who's at risk? the one who lives far from campus? the one who works the night shift? the one with new responsibilities? one thing can't tell you, but the right combination can. universities are using ibm analytics to understand pressures in and out of the classroom- some expect to cut dropout rates by twenty-five percent.
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almost 3%. the cost of going into making the planes including higher wages and raising prices for materials. and the two top executives at whole foods are apologizing for overcharging customers. in a video statement, the co-ceos -- the chain came under fire after an investigation found several were mislabeling packaged goods and selling them for more than they were worth. >> let me just say that joe has been -- put it down on the table so you can see what is going on. joe had asked me to say something on the air which i'm not going to say on the air. >> i can get them the number. >> he literally kept putting $20 bills on the table while becky was speaking to up the ante. >> he tries to take them back and i snatched them at the last minute. now they're mine. >> check this out. 30 rockefeller plaza has officially a new name. i because i work for comcast, i
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think the peacock looks cool. >> i'm keyeping the money. >> then you know what you've got to do. the building known as 30 rock will now be known as the comcast building. it was illuminated last night adding the comcast logo to the new york city skyline. why now? on july 1st 1941 30 rockefeller plaza was home to the first-ever commercial television broadcast. and i think that nbc right now -- the nbcu part of comcast is an equal sort of a partner. very profitable. comcast, the cable operations do great. but it's been a great merger. yeah, i don't feel like a junior partner of comcast. >> i don't either. >> doing great. so it's jobs day.
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polled forecasters expect an increase of 233,000 in non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate to tick down .1% to 5.4%. for more on today's jobs numbers, let's get to our dynamic duo in chicago. they look like they're doing fine there. rick santelli joins us from the cme along with steve leisman. this is nice. you know there's a fine live between love and hate. >> careful, joe. careful. >> come on joe. >> careful. >> where are you going with this? >> where are you going with this? don't give me a brokeback cme over here. that's not what we were talking about. >> not that there's anything wrong with that. you guys -- >> batman robin. >> sorkin and kernen. you've had your moments. but deep down there's a respect and a love as colleagues. >> abbott and costello. who's on first, rick?
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>> rick i got a flag tie on too today. >> stan fisher. what's that joe? >> i have a flag tie on today as well. >> do you? god bless america. happy birthday america. my favorite holiday. >> it is my favorite holiday. we're going to talk about that at some point today as well. so, rick i'll let you start. i'd love to start something with you guys standing right next to each other. i'm trying to figure out how i can do it. what do you make of the numbers today, rick? >> listen. i think that we are improving. i think the jobs picture is definitely improving. but i think the reality is that there's something deficient. there's something that isn't quite right in whether we alter numbers or change how we calculate numbers. it's not going to bring back that loving economic feeling again. and i think what's wrong is that a good chunk of the prosperity
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has been relegated to a select few. and thank god they have to pay some taxes and we have record tax revenues. that wasn't the area of growth i'd like to see do better. and i think to get more on a path to get the kind of growth historically that we need to get back over 3% 3.5% 4% i think we need more productive use of what's going into the sausage machine. and i think obamacare, top of the list. nobody ever talks about it. 90% of my e-mails whenever we get in this conversation is why isn't anybody talking about obamacare. but it doesn't end there. you know the government can't control everything. my analogy is what's wrong with this country? what would be what? the seventh largest economy in the world, california can't even understand the notion that if they want their water, alls they have to do is allocate a scarce resource the good old fashioned way. market forces.
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supply and demand. let the price move. >> i might be able to start it. >> bring davis back! what he did with electricity is what they're doing with water. >> steve and i got into it a little. steve has the answer to this. and it all has to do with too much money flowing to shareholders and ceos and not enough money going to the workers. that's his answer to why things aren't right. and that little bit -- both of us -- >> joe you're misstating it but okay. >> but the answer of what is wrong is 180 degrees apart. what you just said is anathema to steve. right? this isn't too much government. it's not enough government. >> what you're stated i stated as a statement i stated as a question. i said there's an issue right now. and that issue is it's a question as to how much money is flowing to corporate profits. and what you have is you have record corporate profits. by the way, at this time when
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everybody you interview on that set there complains about how miserable business conditions are, they're making more money than they ever have. >> because they have 0% interest rates, steve. >> no joe. >> yes, it is! that's why. businesses normally do. otherwise we'd have a lot of wage growth. we'd have a lot of unemployed people. 3 million americans are employed this year to last year. they are doing that. >> got to get back to where we were before. >> yeah no. we're only 5 million away. be fair, joe. >> so let's be clear here joe. >> profits aren't well being. that's not what makes for a good economy. just looking at business. >> that's what you've been saying for the last ten years is profitability being -- let me just finish the point. the point is the data show that wage growth has not kept place with productivity growth.
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and that is something that over some period of time do. are there other issues out there why that is the case? >> global dynamics. when are people going to wake up? >> fine. >> it's not unique to the united states. it's not unique to japan. >> it's not. >> what we have is if you look at the old charlie chaplin movie where the guy is in the assembly line with the big wrench. if you think you're going to get a big living wage putting that bolt on an assembly line wrong. >> but you're the one that started about inequality. >> i never talked about that. >> right. but it's not inequality. it's policy. they want it this way. >> why does policy create this dynamic? if all these people will -- >> let me think. can you borrow at zero? >> i can. >> can you get a mortgage and borrow at zero? >> i can. >> can you lend to your friends and borrow at zero? >> i don't know. maybe. >> i rest my case. >> okay.
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so you're saying it's the inability of people to borrow is why we have inequality? >> no. it's the inability of the market and the economy to make it -- to carry its water on its own. okay? seven years of a calibration of zero interest rating with five years of a calibration to a 30 hour workweek. >> i came all the way to chicago and we have the same argument we've always had. >> it's not an argument. these are facts! >> why raising rates -- >> we need to raise enough money to give airfare to the fomc to take them to disney world. >> hey, guys can you see air down there? >> can you see us? >> no. >> you were missing out. now do what you were doing while they were arguing. >> i was like this. and then i was conducting. >> joe, steve, and i are all on the same page. we can agree that things aren't right.
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where we go wrong is how they get fixed. >> that's right. >> i think he likes the greek model and i like the fourth of july model! >> i don't like the greek model. would you give me a break here. >> let's stick to problems where we all agree. >> just because you wear a tie -- go ahead, becky. sorry. >> god, this is so good. steve, why are you -- you're in chicago to do the dead. >> let's talk about something we agree on. which is music. >> we both love music. i'm not a grateful dead fan. i always thought when he was going to talk about the grateful dead, we were going to talk about greece so i was wrong. but i do love zz top. let's go. >> i'm here because there's a big grateful dead show. they're doing their final three days. i'm going to anchor the aftershow. we have a few economic points here. let me see if i can get to it here. okay. not there, not there. whatever it is. we have 2.6 times the occupancy,
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airbnb looking for places. you can go rent a boat for 1500 bucks and go up to soldier field, stay there. walk into the shows. average ticket price $650 to $750. they're saying maybe $50 million to $100 million infusion. you have taste of chicago this weekend but in general people leave chicago. >> i know you're out of time but i want you to say why is this happening in my kind of town. why is this happening in chicago? >> it's a bit of a sad story, but it's jerry garcia did his last show here. >> it's sad a legend passed away but his music lives on and chicago is an integral part of that. >> we had drinks last night with the crew. they're all set up and ready to go. people are starting to come in. what i don't know, guys -- and you know how this works. there's 80,000 tickets a nighttimes three is 240,000. but it could be the same 80,000 coming three nights a row. that's how the deadheads work.
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i don't know. >> just monitor the vw buses. we'll figure it out. >> we've got got to wrap it up. this has been an enormous amount of fun here. >> yeah. you had drinks last night with the crew. drinks with the crew. >> can they hug at least? >> they're good. >> would you guys stop it. get back to your show. >> drinks with the grateful dead crew. >> is that what they call them? >> yeah. >> guys we will see you back -- >> it's edible too. edible drinks. >> edible and smokeable drinks. >> i don't know what you two have been up to. we here are getting ready for the holiday weekend. jane as well as has the cost on your independence day barbecue. she has fireworks fun for us. stick around for that. and also the breakdown of the gas prices before your road trip. "squawk box" will be right back. the life behind it. ♪ those who have served our nation
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have earned the very best service in return. ♪ usaa. we know what it means to serve. get an auto insurance quote and see why 92% of our members plan to stay for life. ♪ ♪ ♪ (singing) you wouldn't haul a load without checking your clearance. so why would you invest without checking brokercheck? check your broker with brokercheck.
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4:40 you can hold a beer and light a firework. >> don't get too close. >> my neighbors will be so happy. >> is this legal? >> you might not be able to do this in drought stricken california but it's legal in a lot of places like where i am right now. although only a few cities have canceled their fireworks celebrations this year. one being in cupertino where apple is. here we go. the association says we're going to spend $675 million on fireworks this year. it could be more because it's going to be on a saturday. and as for retailer says that so far they have seen no impact on sales here in california despite the tinder dry conditions. listen. >> well i just think people need to use common sense.
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you're not going to smoke a cigarette while you're putting gas in your car, so i wouldn't light fireworks in a dry field or next to a dry bush. >> this is amazing. i hope they don't call the cops. as for barbecue the american farm bureau says the average barbecue is going to cost $5.58 a person. that is down 3%. however, when you throw in the beer, the fixings, the party the fireworks, it's actually up a% 5%. and the average household is going to spend almost $350 this year. going to spend just a billion dollars alone on beer. and i better get in before they call 911. >> yeah. run away. run away jane. way to wake up your neighbors and thank you for joining us. there she goes. we got to let her get out of here. happy fourth. americans have saved a
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collective ton of money. added up to $65 billion on lower gas prices just in the first six months of the year. as we go into the busiest driving holiday weekend in years, the global head of energy analysis joins us. tom, thanks for being here today. >> nice to be here. >> so we know that gas prices are lower than they were a year ago. what's that mean in terms of people getting out, getting out driving, and what can we expect this holiday weekend? >> if you believe the numbers, we're actually probably driving about 6.5% more in the last four weeks. and this is the busiest driving season. more people driving since maybe 2007. even with the more efficient cars. the problem is i don't think it will last forever. >> why? low prices or the driving? >> i think the low prices are going to last a long time. i think they will. what will happen though and one of the reasons why prices are low is that demand is going to drop after labor day. there's no catalyst to drive
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demand. so i think it's going to be a cheap summer. we'll probably have to wait through july and make sure you sweat out hurricanes and so forth. and i think it's going to be a very cheap fall. >> a cheap fall too. >> i think we'll see prices close to $2 in all of those places you saw last january. >> is that a reflection of the supply picture? >> yeah. i mean we've got a lot of crude. the iraqis are pumping more oil than ever. the saudis are pumping more oil. libya is getting its act together. if these iranian talks next week really result in an agreement, it will probably throw another half million barrels a day to the market next winter probably when we need them least. >> some of the big integrated oil companies are pushing to make sure not just the big integrated companies but the local drillers here too are pushing to make sure that we try and change the laws to export crude oil from here. what do you think about that? >> i probably think that that becomes an issue in 2070.
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i can't see somebody winning a state like pennsylvania or ohio and going toex port oil. because it really does put them at a disadvantage. i think it will be a topic a couple years from now. >> but they're point has been that the refineries here are set up -- a huge number of them are set up to take the crude coming from overseas and refining that crude. that's why you have an abundance of crude here that can't even be processed. >> yeah. we'll do a bunch of swaps. we can process much of the crude now. we're going to get mexican heavy crude and probably swap some light shale crude for that. and that'll happen. the price difference between u.s. numbers and international numbers right now doesn't support it. it's been $20, $25 in the last few years. now it's only $4 or $5. >> thank you for coming in. >> happy july 4th. coming up don't leave for
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vacation just yet. the jobs number is coming up at 8:30 eastern time. we've got predictions after the break at the top of the hour. but first we'll talk about a makeover for bubble wrap. stick around for that. my kids love it. i love it. ♪ i built my business with passion. but i keep it growing by making every
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version of its signature product. it's going to be called ibubble wrap which i would sue immediately if i were tim cook. and looks the same as the original except there's a difference. the bubbles don't burst. they're columns. >> wait a second. >> my kids are going to hate this. >> ships in giant pre-inflated rolls and takes up a lot of room in delivery trucks and warehouses. buy the pump. it's in columns. you pump it up yourself once you get it. >> amazon does that now. they send the air pocket things. and you can still stomp on them. >> overall sales have been declining. >> i don't know why. >> the pleasure you get from doing that is remarkable. >> can i just tell you one group of people very close to me that don't like this at all is my german shepherd and the maltipoo. you let her walk across it and she runs off. she doesn't like fireworks. >> that's twisted. >> it is. but they don't know what's happening. it's like fireworks for them. so we don't have bubble wrap
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anymore anymore. but you like it. you want to take this home? >> yes. my kids are going to go crazy. >> you see the thunder -- >> by the way, it's good for me. >> rough for dogs the thunder the other night. coming up the jobs report more than 30 minutes away. our panel will give protections. tevin hasset and mark zandi. we'll stop doing that eventually.
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fireworks ready to fly. breaking this hour the jobs report. the numbers, the market reaction, and what this could all mean for the fed's next move. greek standoff. citizens heading to the polls in greece this weekend. the vote could determine the future of the euro. and on this jobs day, a big question for california legislators. should pro sports cheerleaders be called employees? it's a story that impacts businesses well beyond the gridiron. the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ live from the most powerful
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city the the world, new york, this is "squawk box." >> welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc first in business worldwide. i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin. big story of the morning in addition to the ebb and flow in greece is the jobs report. because it's a thursday it's weird. we're off tomorrow so we're doing the jobs report today. hiring is likely. it appears to have maybe cooled a bit because it reached a five-month high in may. we don't know that for sure. still looking far strong number. polled forecasters said the economy likely added 233,000 jobs in june while the unemployment rate dipped to 5.4%. futures ahead of the report after that day yesterday where it started out strong on positive comments from greece. then the comments got negative yesterday and it never really went all the way back down even though some of the stuff that happened earlier where they were getting along better that sort of evaporated earlier.
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we're not doing anything until after the referendum anyway. but did close up 130 yesterday. up 33 today. still down for the week because of the 350 point drubbing we had earlier on. we could make that today and make it a positive week. >> could. it has been not only a rough week or month -- actually, rough first half of the year with the markets. they've gone nowhere for most of that time. we're also taking a look at a few other big stories investors will be talking about today. as joe mentioned, greece. negotiations between athens and creditors are off. at least for now. at this point everything is in a holding pattern on the country's future referendum on sunday. a yes vote by greek citizens would back austerity measures. a no vote could trigger greece's exit from the eurozone.
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that's according to some german officials and others. saying they don't necessarily trust them. that's a long way of what's happened. so this vote on sunday is going to be key. merger news continues centene buying health net. it's a 21% premium over yesterday's closing price. also a bit of ipo news as well. the owner of univision going public. they extended a contract with the biggest provider of spanish language tv content to at least 2030. randy falco, the ceo, congratulations to him. those guys have owned this.
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they sort of bought it at the top of things back in 2006 or '07. now paying off. >> randy falco who we know well. you weren't here then. >> i was not. >> has it wlr been ten years? >> it hasn't had it? tesla up 52% from a year ago in deliveries. although that's a slower growth rate than in the prior quarter. digital money transferring company xoom is being bought by paypal. 21% more than yesterday's closing price. i guess it would have to be cash. they don't have currency yet. they will have currency right? they don't yet. so it would have to be cash. >> we should bring you
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up-to-date on breaking news just coming out. according to wire reports, it says that the u.s. park police are responding to reports of an active shooter another the navy yard in washington. no other details available at this point. they have not been able to verify this report, but again this is the navy yard which is a military installation. >> you remember 12 people were killed there back in 2013. >> all on watch for july 4th because of a stated intention by some of our enemies to try and do something this weekend here. >> we will keep you up to date on this story here as we get headlines. that's what we know right now. in the meantime we are half an hour away from the june jobs report. let's get to our panel to get their thoughts. joining us is mark zandi kevin hassett, and austan goolsbee. gentlemen, welcome to all of you. mark, why don't we pick up with
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you because you saw what happened yesterday with the adp numbers. just wonder what you think this means in terms of today's. >> well adp was 237. throw in 10 15k for government employment that gets you to 250. 250 is the average monthly job growth over the last 12 18 months. i think the trend underlying job growth, it will be up and down month to month. 3 million a year. >> that's a decent number. >> more than decent. that's about as good as it gets. we got 3 million last year. then go back to 1999 in the middle of the technology boom to get 3 million jobs. and all kinds of jobs. low paying jobs yes, but also a lot of middle and high pay jobs. >> this is not just a couple of industries doing well. >> right. everybody but energy is booming. the different between mark's model and my model is mine
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allows more momentum. i think the 4% is into the second quarter. i think the second quarter is looking close to 3%. i think that the booming second half is starting now. i think that will take a lot of the pressure off of the fed as we go into the fall. >> austan would you characterize it as a booming second half? >> boy, i hope these guys are right. i as you know have been a little more pessimistic on the gdp job growth. and i still think it's going to be an improvement, but not that strong. but i think we're turning a corner in which i think the consensus is about right. and that's still pretty decent. you know 230 -- i'm going to guess 232. that's still pretty decent job growth well over 2.5 million a year. and as mark said these are kind of historic levels of job growth.
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>> so are you shaking off some of that pessimism? >> yeah i'm shaking it off somewhat. i'm not ready to jump all the way in the hassett and zandi vote. >> what does that tell us about where we're headed and what happens here? there's been a lot of kind of doom and gloom. we read the headlines, we see what's happening in greece. we worry about the slowdown in china and europe. how that affects us back here. you're saying kind of shake it off for now? >> i still think those things are going to weigh on us. i don't think we're going to truly unleash the beast to fly through the air like the dragon in the "game of thrones." i don't think we're too that point. but i just think we're getting a little bit up off the floor going from measly to modest if you will. >> mark you seeing any dragons right now? >> well i think austan put his finger on the dragon that's trade. the strong dollar the weaker global economy. but, you know i think this
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train has a lot of momentum and it's going to take a lot to derail it. feels like we're in pretty good shape. look at greece. i mean that's -- if that's what's going to get thrown at us, we can digest that pretty easily, i think. and the one thing that's really going to kick in and give us that juice, you know get into that 300,000 kind of job number is housing. we talked about that yesterday. the housing market is now undersupplied. vastly undersupplied. you can see it in rent growth which is accelerating. and house price growth. so we need a lot more housing construction. and that's a lot of jobs. >> one thing that could really upend the whole thing though. if the greece problem explodes and there's a difference in euro, it could. everybody is worried about a financial collapse because of greece. but if the euro all of a sudden makes the dollar a lot stronger, 10%, 20% stronger that was a big negative for the economy could hit us right away.
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>> look what's happened the last few days. go ahead, austan. >> it usually takes some time for a high dollar to have an impact. it doesn't just happen right away. so still got some of that negative coming down the pipe from the increase in the dollar over the last, you know, eight or ten months. >> why's it taken so long? it feels like an extension on how long it's taken to fill some of those jobs. >> i mean if you look at job openings, that is 5.4 million. go back a year ago, it was 4.4 million. the number of job opening positions to the labor force is at a record high. so a lot of things are going on. >> that's the good news. but i thought the duration was longer now. >> and that's part of it. open positions are just staying open longer and people are posting more open positions. some of it is some jobs mismatching. i mean people out there looking for work don't have the skills. part of it is i think what i'd
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call pickiness of employers. so there's this fad part of big multi-national corporation and i listen to people that -- skon sul tants that come in on resourcing. like everything, there's fads to this human resource consolidating. and that is don't hire anybody until you're absolutely positively sure. >> do you think before culturally we were more inclined to take a risk on somebody? >> absolutely. we could take them in and see if it worked out. but now the thinking is that you shouldn't do that. >> and the one place you see it where they're not doing that is with recent college grads. you can toss him away. but if you hire a 30-year-old, then you're making a kind of commitment to them. so college grads the last couple of years are back to having a great job market. and so this is more of a middle kind of thing. >> we're going to continue this conversation in just a moment.
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again on that breaking news we told you about before u.s. military officials are now telling nbc news that there have been reports of gunshots heard at the navy yard. however, there is no confirmation that an active shooter is present or any shots were fired. they're still attempting to clarify some of those initial reports. u.s. defense and military officials say the navy yard right now is on lockdown and they're sheltering in place based on the unconfirmed shooter at this point. >> hopefully there isn't. but everybody is a little on edge. coming up it is jobs day. that means that mary thompson is going where the jobs are. she joins us next with a look at hot employment creators in the sharing economy. think uber. "squawk box" will be right back.
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and i guess i just read a headline or something that fast food workers can make more than cheerleaders. >> i read something about that too. just an excuse to show pictures of cheerleaders? >> maybe. someone with that kind of mind might think that. >> this was a serious business story you wanted to tell us about? >> i just do what i'm told. you're free to take this wherever you want to go. >> i'm not going anywhere with it. we're going to talk about a different issue in hiring. hiring showing signs of heating up. but today's numbers may not tell the story. mary thompson has more on where the jobs are this morning. >> hey, andrew. don't count them out. their numbers are growing. for a growing number of people part-time work is taking the place of a full-time job. >> we have 30,000 taskers across the u.s. and the uk. >> the trend toward freelancing
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fueled by workers wishing to manage their own schedules, the growing acceptance of the odd jobs site task rabbit. a study estimate this prnl of workers doing some kind of freelance work will increase to 40% from the current estimate of 33%. it's a trend task rabbit ceo sees driving growth in her business. >> so i feel like we've barically scratched the surface with what task rabbit has delivered to date. we're live in 20 cities across the u.s. london is our first international market. we get e-mails from people every day all over the world asking when task rabbit is going to launch in their area. >> for 90% of its taskers, though she says they work these jobs to pay two or three bills a month. only 10% of the taskers make it their full-time gig earning up to $6,000 a month. so what's it like to make
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part-time work your full-time job? we'll have that story coming up on "power lunch" when we take a look at the day in the life of a tasker. that's coming up on "power lunch" later today. andrew, back to you. >> thank you for that. when we come back the countdown to the employment report, it is on. you're looking at a live shot of the official labor department clock right there. we're going to get final predictions from our panel straight ahead.
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. we are turning our attention back to our jobs panel now for their final predictions this morning ahead of the 8:30 announcement. joining us once again a mark zandi, kevin hassett, and austan goolsbee. also rick santelli and steve leisman in person together if you can believe that. so let's go around the horn. you're right here. >> do i have to hold this up? >> get your paddles out. >> it's not a paddle. >> what is it? it's a sign. >> paddle sounds like a frat initiation. >> sometimes it feels that way.
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mr. zandi, what you got? >> 250k. >> you have to show it. >> i did. here's the big number. >> hard for us to see that. >> 5.4% unemployment. >> the trifecta. >> the key number is the wage growth. if we get 3. it will continue to accelerate. >> that's pretty wimpy writing there. say it loud and proud. >> i have a lot of information on this. >> kevin, sir? >> i said it loud and proud. 270. i even said it in korean. >> i love that. >> wow. >> you can say it in korean now. >> no. >> 270. >> so we've got to go to mr. goolsbee. do you have a sign? >> i have a paddle. when you told me you were going to send me an implement, i thought it was going to be some
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miniaturized jumbotron. i didn't know it was going to be a paint stick. i wanted to make a prediction everyone could agree on. there you go. joe is nuts. but 232 is going to be our answer. >> wow. >> i got something for you in a second, too, austan. >> i'm liking this. >> we got to get to rick santelli and leisman in person who are either hugging or beating each other. guys? >> mine is 229. but happy birthday jack benny plus 200 to america as well. >> i got the lightning bolt here for the dead. you see that? >> okay. >> 214. >> all right. i'm going -- >> and you told each other beforehand or didn't? >> had no idea. >> no idea. now let's put these paddles to work shall we? >> i have a quick prediction. i'm going to say 287k. >> 287? >> you want me to go before you
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do? >> yeah. >> i'm going big. go big or go home people. 300k. >> last time i did 867-9305. this was easy though. on today. there's only one number worth talking about today. and that's 1776. but i don't want to just combine this just to one group of people and for people like austan goolsbee and others i've got their favorite day here as well. and that is april 15th. as ronald reagan once said republicans believe every day is july 4th. he told me this. however, democrats wish every day was april 15th. >> you got that from the musical right there? >> yeah. >> when you listen to lee greenwood do you get --
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>> i have chills. >> i get teary. i really do. i don't know why. >> it's for fireworks. >> it is. but on april 15th we know what song to play don't we? i produced this whole thing. i even have tax man ready to go. >> now i understand. >> you wanted tooed the finale by holding up 300k. >> i'm hoping for good news. >> austan do you know who's talking to you? >> do i know? joe. he's always talking. >> no right now. do you know who i am? >> no. i can't see you. >> come on say it. say it. say my name. >> oh it's becky. what do you mean? >> you haven't responded to me on twitter all morning. i've been trying to get you to say my name. >> oh i was going to send back the lyrics from that song "say my name" but i thought people would get the wrong idea if i did. >> beyonce song? what's going on here? >> got to follow along on
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twitter. separate show takes place. >> i've got to go look. i don't know what's happening here. >> this double screen thing, you're supposed to keep the people watching on tv. >> got two shows going on. we'll refer back and forth between them. when you come back this morning, it is time. june jobs report is here. the numbers, the instant analysis, and the big question. what's it all mean for the fed. right now as we head to a break, look at the u.s. equity futures. these have been higher all morning long. dow futures up by 35 points. and the nasdaq up by 11.5. stay tuned. "squawk box" will be right back.
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♪ every auto insurance policy has a number. but not every insurance company understands the life behind it. ♪ those who have served our nation have earned the very best service in return. ♪ usaa. we know what it means to serve. get an auto insurance quote and see why 92% of our members plan to stay for life.
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♪ i'm proud to be an american where at least i know i'm free ♪ ♪ and i won't forget the men who died who gave that right to me ♪ welcome -- i don't know why. because i can't -- because austan's not here. >> i play this song on april 15th. >> right. patriotic. welcome back to "squawk box." we're just moments away from the release of the june employment report. the futures have been up about 30 for most of the session. that's about the same now. 28 points or so. nice day yesterday. up 350.
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was it greece was it another number? do we want a good number? or if it's too good does that mean it's definitely september and the market gets nervous again? our guy that gives us the great number is hampton pearson. lets get to him. >> 223,000. non-farm payrolls increased by 220,000. the unemployment rate is 5.3%. hourly earnings no change. we've had significant downward revisions for april and may. the combined downward revisions, 60,000 fewer jobs for the last two months than what was previously reported. june job gains, professional and business services up 64,000. health care plus 40,000. retail trade plus 33,000.
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the unemployment rate how did we get there? both employment and unemployment declined. the real story, perhaps, from this report the labor force participation rate. coming in at 62.6%. a drop of .3% in just one month. and the lowest since october of '77. in part a statement from the bls commissioner talks about the decrease in june. on a not seasonably adjusted basis. in june it was unusually low compared with prior years. the other piece of news today, weekly jobless claims. the four week moving average, 274,000 plus 1,000. back to you.
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>> all right. that is probably what you would think. let's get back to our panel. kevin and austan and steve and rick. did anyone hit -- >> who was closest? >> i think rick was lower. >> i was pretty close. i reversed by digits. otherwise i got the number. >> likely story. >> actually wouldn't leisman get it at 214? >> rick was off by six. i was off by nine. so i'm going to give it to rick. if you can't go over then i win. but i think being within six is pretty damn good. that's what i think. but let's talk about the report. i mean i think some of the internals were a little soft. the downward revisions. but just in context what you did to may is went down to 254. down still a strong number. average weekly hours the same. the earnings are a problem, but they kind of balance out. i guess they revised down what
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we had. we're still in an environment of lackluster earnings. >> here's the earnings thing. remember the excitement -- >> everybody went nuts. >> exactly. and the problem is whenever you get anything good it's always the turning point. whenever you get anything that slightly disappoints, it's hard to draw a conclusion from one number. i call it the trampoline effect. here's my problem with this entire series of numbers and the idea of mr. zandi's 5 million down. we put a trampoline here okay? everything is fine tuned so that we get the best recovery you can. zero interest rates, liquidity, and fire hoses all around the globe from china back to the united states. but when you jump on the ground versus a trampoline shouldn't you jump higher on a trampoline? shouldn't your bounce be higher? we're not getting it. but this trampoline we've been bouncing on we're not bouncing any higher.
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plus when you add in a horrible recession, we should have even bounced more when you added in the trampoline. and this is the contention i have. is that all the things that we're doing that have a price down the road in the future haven't really given us the type of economic complexion that they anticipated seven years ago. >> let me first respond, rick. if you need to do 120,000 -- >> wait wait. let me hear him. go on. >> my thing is i agree with rick. you would want the trampoline to be bigger. but that doesn't mean we should dive head first into the ground and ask the fed to raise rates. crazy. >> i want the trampoline gone. >> i would disagree. >> raising rates now seems crazy, i agree with you. okay? but when you look at where rates are and where they've been it doesn't seem so crazy. and it's not the idea of raising rates. it's the idea of an economy standing on its own two feet without a dozen or a dozen and a half people thinking that they can run the mouse trap better.
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that's my contention. >> 3 million jobs rick. 3 million jobs is what we created last year. and even with today's number -- >> it doesn't matter how many we created! it only matters how many people are working that can work and how many people were working before the crisis hit. okay? so what? 5 million people that disappeared, you don't care about them? >> of course we do. >> a lot of them retired, rick. >> a lot of them retired at age 50 because they couldn't find something else. >> a that's what happens. the only way to make it better is to create jobs and that's what the economy is doing. >> who creates them? this is where you and i will always go off the path. >> no. >> the government picks on the airline industry yesterday. what do they want them to do? run it like amtrak! how could they have the audacity, how did you get here? was your flight on time? >> perfect. >> i rest my case. >> what are you talking about? >> oh collusion. the government doesn't
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understand why airfares are roughly the same? jeez google any product on the planet and then google the competition. you think their price is eight times higher? >> let's get back to the job market. we created 3 million jobs last year. today's number we're on track to create another 3 million. we've had decent job growth we'll be back to full employment where we haven't been in ten years by this time next year. you know that's a trampoline that's working pretty good. 3 million a year -- >> full employment, come on. >> let me give you one number which is we probably need to create 100,000 jobs a month to take care of the influx into the workforce and start to improve the unemployment rate. >> actually it's more. you have to factor in the labor force participation rate. if your population has grown "x" and it only satisfies a certain percentage, you need to bring that back down again. >> the job market is working at double the rate it needs to work
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to bring down the unemployment rate. that's what happened. it's come down in part because of the decline of participation. >> deep down inside you know 5.6% is the real unemployment rate. [ overlapping speakers ] >> boy, but we're happy. you think if the american people really knew that 10.5% is really the unemployment rate you think they'd be shocked? >> can i add some numbers to the conversation? >> no, if you want to talk you have to come to chicago. sorry. >> look. to absorb the growth in the working age population assuming a stable labor force participation rate. we need between 100 and 125,000 jobs per month. underlying job creation is currently 250k. that's double the pace and then some of what we need to absorb the growth in the working age population. [ overlapping speakers ]
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so the puzzle -- >> it will take five to seven years at current rates. >> austan what did you say? >> look gdp is growing at a rate, let's call it 2.5%. the job market has been growing at a rate that sort of corresponds with maybe 3.5% were, 4%. so is it going to go up to where the jobs are or jobs come down to where the gdp is? >> you're hung up on the gdp number. the gdp number right now it's growing 3%. year over year through q1 it's 3%. but my sense is that the gdp growth is understating the growth in the economy. that when the revisions come in and they're all in we're going to see there's a lot more gdp growth out there. >> that's what i'm saying. believes -- >> tracking 3%. look at the last seven years. we're averaging less than 2.5%.
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where do you get tracking? >> that's where i think the jobs numbers -- [ overlapping speakers ] >> the reason we're having this meeting right now, all of us is that this number is really important. it blips up and down from month to month, but probably the best realtime read on how the economy's doing out there. it's not a perfect read but it's the best that we have is the jobs number. the jobs number is -- >> like gdp and productivity. >> gdp is a different thing. they've got trade that revises and so on. the but the jobs number is the best glimpse we have at a moment in time. and not inconsistent with 3% growth. >> i agree with that. >> if it was 300, what would our chicago friends be saying right now? life is fixed and everything's better or are we still worried about something? if we're worried about something, it's the people that left the labor force. >> but 223,000 doesn't deserve zero interest rates in its seventh year.
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>> now you're talking about both sides of your mouth. >> i am huh? >> earlier you said 10.5%. if that's high why wouldn't you have a low interest rate? >> right. and that's what we have mr. market for. to define that in an aggregate way opposed to having stan fisher pick winners and losers. janet yellen pick winners and losers. did you really listen to that press conference you attend snd frightening, frightening, frightening these are the group picking the winners and losers. >> wait a second. either you put on a gold standard or you have a committee to pick a rate. what's your call here? you want go back to the gold standard? >> i wish we could, but we can't. >> why do you want to go back to it? >> okay. >> it's not about the gold standard. it's about training wheels. it's about whole societies having training wheels. that's what it's about. >> o earthquake. see, the one thing -- >> good. >> i'm so focused on your airline quote but collusion is okay. >> i didn't say anything about
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airlines! joe, i didn't say anything. >> -- by somebody who flies a lot too. >> i'm not going to let you get away with that. i didn't say anything about airlines. i didn't say collusion. he said collusion. >> i looked at andrew and said i'm glad you're here. i appreciate andrew sometimes. >> joe, you put a lot of words in my mouth and i don't say anything. but i'm not going to let you get away with this one. >> used the word collusion after he said airline flights to chicago. that's what happened. there's a mixup. >> okay. i apologize, steve. >> oh that's nice joe. love all around now. >> collusion is more about, you know, democratic candidates and e-mail servers. >> turn on your love light, dude. okay? >> i will. your margaritas were $18 a piece, leisman. >> thanks for dinner the other night.
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that was a good time my friend. >> you knew i was going to work it in somehow and get payback. >> you have a lovely family which is a little bit strange. but your kids are turning out pretty darn good. >> we all know that. >> thank you for being here. when we come back this morning, market reaction to today's jobs numbers. we have richard bernstein joiningjoin joining us next. and later, a baseball player that hasn't stepped on the diamond in years but he's making more than plenty of the current players who are playing right now. we have that story straight ahead.
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welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. job growth slowing last month, but the economy still added 220,000 non-farm payrolls. the futures right now looking at the board, dow higher about 58. nasdaq up about 19 points. for more insight on how the market might react to the jobs numbers, we have richard bernstein joining us right now. richard, those numbers are about the highest we've seen all morning when we look at the indexes. this was a slightly weaker than expected number, but still pretty decent. >> yeah. it's kind of a goldilocks number. not too hot, not too cold. you thought the fed would rush to raise rates when you look at the overall data here.
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not in any rush to raise rates. >> we're talking about jobs at this moment. the other thing people are going to be thinking about in terms of positioning themselves into this long weekend is greece. >> greece. >> and so by the end -- right now we're all jobs crazy. but by the end of the day will we be greece crazy and is there a setup in terms of an investor getting yourself into this weekend? >> i think if you look at a lot of the issues whether it's greece or puerto rico which are similar situations it's all politics. and i don't know as an investor how you gauge politics. i mean it's a whim of this, whim of that. what's going to happen? i don't know. i have to be honest with you, i think we're trying to avoid it as much as possible and wait for the dust to settle and look at what's going on. i think to try and guess which i think is the best one can do right now is to guess what's going to happen in greece what's going to happen. are they going to have a rempb
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did -- referendum, i don't know. that's not good to do. >> do you look at the long-term? >> yeah. i think the longer term has been and we were just discussing this off camera. they need greece more than greece needs germany. we have massive over-capacity around the world. women is a remnant of the global bubble. every country is playing a market share. has to be tremendously productive to overwhelm that. not productive enough to overwhelm a strong currency. every peripheral that leaves europe, the euro becomes more the deutsche mark. it becomes to appreciate. then they have their problems too. if they get their own currency, they have huge problems over the next couple years bb but then we're all going on vacation. i mean i don't know about you but i think we're all going to be there. >> you're talking logic. you're talking long game strategies. not something that always plays out in politics. >> and that's the issue.
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that's exactly right. part of the issue we think is behind the scenes here is how does germany sell this? how do the german politicians sell it back home? it can't be viewed as giving handouts to the greeks. that doesn't work. you don't get yourself re-elected. so i think there's a bit of a game going on here between all the politicians behind the scenes trying to work out something that helps everybody. i don't know if they're going to be able to do it or not, but i think that's what's going on behind the scenes. i'm not sure it's all economics. >> in terms of whether the euro continues to exist, you doubt its existence in 5, 10 15 years? >> should have never done it but anyway they did -- >> i'm not a good enough expert to tell you. >> they be they can coordinate fiscal policies better. >> and banking regulations and things like that. if they try to make them they try to bring the rest of the sort of financial economy together. yeah, i think they could probably do it. >> saw the greek newspapers. not only is it a different language, but what if the germans are trying to figure out
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what they're saying. you need six people. what does this say? all the letters are -- >> i only know greek from fraternity letters. they go to the small, i can't do it. >> it's all greek to me. >> where do you think that came from? >> yeah. >> so in the meantime -- >> yes. >> if you can extract from the jobs extract from the fed and greece, what do you think about the markets in general? >> i think the u.s. market is still attractive. we have yet to have an environment where investors are fully embracing the bull market here. >> you see shiller the other day? >> yesterday. >> but with a straight face said these investors are not just enthusiastic about this market at all. i think it's going down. >> it's the other way around. >> purely a professor and fundamental type guy. >> i think so. it's neither individuals nor corporate pension funds nor hedge funds nor wall street
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strategists. nobody's overly bullish about the market. >> nobody thinks it can go up 30% from here. nobody. >> no. and it's already one of the longest bull markets in history and the longest bull markets in history and nobody has liked it. the only people that have liked this market are corporations that have been buying their own stock back and public equity. there are roughly twice as many u.s. companies in private equity portfolios as those listed on u.s. exchanges. >> except fort market you have been great on the market. you have been right on most of this stuff. sometimes i think it is hard for you to stay long. >> it is hard not from the view of pro-corporate america. >> if we are still trying to make sure we get past the point of deflation, versus inflation, that portends really good things
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for how long inflation rates take. interest rates could stay good for a long type. >> we are on the down side of a global credit bubble. it is incredibly difficult too get meaningful inflation when you have a massive credit bubble. it is not surprising that wages got sucked back down again. it is really hard to get inflation. >> that is goldielocks. you don't want to use the word but long-term low interest rates and businesses starting to improve. >> if you think about corporations they aren't showing this cycle behavior. they are not building inventories or leveraging themselves to the schnoz. >> you think we still interest two or three years. >> i think so. i am not sure if it is going to be state up or going to wiggle. i don't have a clue about that.
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if we come back in two years, 2 1/2 years, we are going to find a lot more people are going to be bullish. at the peak of the cycle, everybody loves stocks. >> thanks. >> that's great. >> your bringing it home today. coming up we like that. coming up why facebook is tweaking its level. stay tuned. "squawk box" will be right back. being a keen observer of the world has gotten you far but what if you could see more of what you wanted to know? with fidelity's new active trader pro investing platform, the information that's important to you is all in one place, so finding more insight is easier. it's your idea powered by active trader pro.
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an update from washington, d.c. the lockdown in the navy yard is still in place. these reports have not been confirmed. we have not heard anything about that at this point. the navy yard was the sight of a 2000 shooting. we will monitor. a saudi prince plans to give away his entire $32 billion fortune to charity. he wants to build a better world of tolerance, acceptance equality and opportunity for
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all. it will be pledged to his charitable organization. facebook just made a subtle change. when i say subtle so subtle to its logo originally designed in 2005. here it is everybody. see if you can see the difference. here is the logo before and after. old is on the left and new is on the right. >> they just whipped the white and the blue. >> the letters are slightly thinner and a little sleeker and there is more white space. if you look at the "a," it is more rounded off and the bfrmts"b" is a little bit different. it stresses the growing importance of smartphone users. they check from their phones and the back lit glow of your phone will make the letters look
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clearer apparently and a little more legible. you ever do that last page on "people" magazine where they show a picture? find the seven differences. >> you are watching jeopardy. here you have it. i'll admit that long before "people" magazine. automated voice: to file a claim, please state your name. carnie wilson. thank you. can you hold on? ♪ hold on for one more day ♪ really? hey, i know there's pain. why do you lock yourself up in these chains?
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happy fourth of july. happy independence day. join us on monday and "squawk on the street" is next. good morning and welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm david faber along with sarah simons and carl hobbs. carl quintanilla and jim cramer have well earned days off. we are set up for a potentially higher open and decent days. we opened this week with a significant down draft. the ten-year note yield on this employment number we got, let's take a look at where we stand. the yield a
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