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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  July 2, 2015 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT

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do you like all of the changes with the new technology that's happened? >> i love it. it's a wonderful new stream of technology. i think it is changing everything. it is giving everyone a different kind of voice. we need to have that, that is what america is about. i'm thrilled about it. it could not be happening in a better way. >> goldie, thank you for joining us, walter, thank you, it's great to be out here. it's time for "fast money." le. the nasdaq marks overlooking new york city's time square. take a look at these leaked photos of the brand new iphone that are rocking the iphone, but what it's not showing that has apple investors excited. and protecting your portfolio from the greek drama.
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the jobs report is giving a early boost to stocks. is this the calm before the storm? earnings, can you believe start next week. >> the earnings bar is so low, the expectations on eps are down 4.5%. going into the weekend, there is no way to me that equities are going to rally up. we fizzled into the close, we didn't go strong. each day we started stronger and gave some ground. and it's a holiday weekend. >> how did you read the reactions? >> i totally agree with that we walked in this morning and we department expect much and we got nothing out of it. grease -- people are using greece as an excuse to sell. sell stocks off of their holiday highs. i don't think there was much
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coming out of it. >> i would apply that, but i think there was a lot that happened today that maybe people didn't see. but a couple different things. one the jobs report this morning. on the surface it may have looked okay, revisions were bad, personal hours worked and everything was lower than what was expected or flatlined. then we have factory orders come out lower than what was expected. the most important thing that happened today, the imf came back and tim tweeted this today. the imf came out and said they need $60 billion in the next several years and they need debt relief. that is a huge concession for one of the three negotiating partners here. there is no reason they should vote yes coming up this weekend. >> getting the signals that the s votes are building up on the indirect -- the imf needs these guys to say yes.
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it was bizarre. there is no reason for you to say yes, so you will say no. >> getting back to the original question, is this the calm before the storm? relatively calm today. >> i think the storm was on monday. the monday market to me, you had the huge move on monday, rates ratchet down to 233 or so. didn't give it up back, but gave probably two thirds of it back. they're telling you something, there will be a resolution. whether it is good or bad i don't think that matters. i think it is a good sign. yes, today's price action was not the best, but do i think you will see a relief rally from here. >> even goldman sachs came out and lowered their estimates again, and the market has been essentially flat to down.
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so i don't think that if you have tepid earnings it will hurt that much. i think you have to watch what is going on in china. >> they have assessed the week. lived through monday, and they're going to the weekend thinking what if there is a yes vote or a no vote. a greek play book coming up, on monday, what do we expect? >> if you get a yes vote -- if they rally you don't chase a rally. you selectively select your stocks. i'm telling you when stocks go higher the worst thing you can do is chase a rally in this scenario. absolutely the wrong move. there will be a lot of confusion around any vote that comes out. >> yelp screaming for help today after falling 15%. the company has temporarily
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decided not to sell itself. so is yelp dead money? bob joins us on the fast line, bob peck. the report makes it seem like it was entirely the ceo and if he decides to go ahead with it, they will. >> yes, if it truly is off, the stocks come back to what the rumors were. number two, there are several concerns to think about the core, right? there is slower user traffic, slower growth. and number three, i think the trns at this point, you put it around ten times or so, so
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notorious discounting of a 10% to 20% cut of revenues. only 2.7 billion enterprise value, they have 40 million users. twit sere expected today be around 30 million or so and only has twice the amount of users. >> i hate to make you play a guessing game, but why do you think stoppleman stopped entertaining orders? maybe the bids did not come in good enough. >> we're guessing the bids weren't as high as he had thought. oechb if you just s-- even if y that twitter example, maybe he is thinking $6 billion or so and the bids were not coming in there. >> we're going to leave it there. thank you for phoning in, have a
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great weekend. bob peck of sun trust. >> you have been calling this right you hate yelp. >> yes, i can't stand it. i don't like this stock, there is no mote around the business. google and facebook, they would not take a lot of time. i look at the stock and i say to myself the social network will reign when it comes down to names like this. there is no social network here. you're basically looking at and reading reviews that you know and trust. >> they have 77 million users, i agree, people are worried about the google change and the competitive threats are big, but they are developing locally before they try to monetize. that is one of the things people have been concerned about. their margins are going higher. i don't see why they wouldn't be bought, but now that you traded
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back to where you were before the may event. i think you have to take a look at this stock. >> what is it worth? what is it worth in general pip don't see the growth here. >> and you know where it is trading right now. >> i think it will continue to go lower. >> obviously a 52 week low. back on may 16th, he said a take out is probably already in the stock. good for him. how do you trade it? i'm in tim's camp. maybe the business is not the greatest business, but i don't think it is a broken business. given the volume trade, i think the position is closer to 19% now for a trade against today's cloud is effectively right here. i think you can get low in the stock. >> i think there is no value to the business whatsoever. i can do essentially what they do on twitter for free. everybody that i know says i'm going to new york, what restaurant do i go to, they put it on twitter and get
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recommendations from people. doinlt kn i don't know anyone that uses yelp any more. >> the stock is definitely going higher. >> tesla shares are surging to a new 2015 high, but an analyst here says that stocks have another 20% so go. >> and greece hurls towards a vote. don't look now, shares of shake shack have been cut in half since a month ago. why the drop could be a buying opportunity in a very unorthodox way. all of that and more when "fast money" comes back.
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i like your place. oh, thank you, make yourself at home i'll be right back.
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hm. she's got x1. alright. huh, hm, ohh... monster? she seemed so nice at dinner. i'm back! ahh! uhh... whatcha doing? ohh, just... watchin' law & order. awww, you're nervous. that's so cute. call and upgrade to get x1 today. ♪ netflix offering top trades tonight. they will start sharing ad revenue with the creators. >> i like facebook, i have been following this stock for awhile. i think the video ads will knock the cover all of the ball here. instagram, we valued this back three months ago at roughly a
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$33 billion company. one of the top rated downloads. instagram will kill it. this mobile advertising, you see the $200 shift into the market. i think he will go through it for a short period of time. >> upside from here? facebook or twitter? >> twitter. i love facebook for several reasons. they own and operate the what'sapp messenger. i think they have scale -- >> the catalyst could be a new ceo. >> i think that's the trade. you have a window of opportunity. why wouldn't twitter just do this as well? they should. >> next up, intel shares popping about a percent today this after the president steps down.
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renee james is trying to pursue a job at another company. >> i think it has been supporting the stock. you have to give credit, you know what show i really like every friday at 5:30, options -- >> i hope dan is watching right now. he has been saying it will trade at $30 now for a few weeks. 13 times forward earnings is not expensive. i think it was a technical bounce and i think you can get long in this stock. >> and a new note out saying perhaps a new president could change the view of the mobile business. >> i think the mobile business has come a lot farther in the last four or five years. these things have very important to the company and i think they are priced in all of this. this is not what drives intel
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going forward. this is a bold move, a reason to rally the stock. >> shares of tesla jumping 4% on news that their deliveries surged 52%. the senior equity analyst, ben kallo is joining us. >> thank you for having me on. >> the deliveries topped expectations and we tally up the first and second quarter would imply that for the back end they would have to deliver more than 33,000 vehicles to meet their year end target of 55,000 deliveries. walk us how they get to that number given also the launch of the x. >> sure, well we're calculating 50 thousands s and 5,000 x. what we have seen them do throughout the year and this is very good, we have seen their production be much more methodical where there is not a third month rush every quart
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tore get the cars out there. we think there is over 1,000 to 1500 in the channel right now to help out the q 3 deliveries. we think we will come in around 13,000 or 14,000 for giant for q 3. this is what they're gearing up on for sales, production, and logistics with deliveries. >> what makes you confident about an on time model x launch. with all vehicle launches, for any of the big three, when they launch a vehicle there is hiccups when it comes to proconductipr producti production. what makes you think they're on time with a full month at the end of the year. >> sure, a couple things. as you know it has been delayed a couple times as they both made the car better and also worked out some of the kinks, and they brought on the dual motor power
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train which will be the building block for the model x. that part of it is already derisked. i think you're this close to a model x is the story, and judging by the price option today, i would still say the model x is not priced into the stock. i think we'll hear more about the options that will be on the model x in the next few days or so. >> at the end of march, everyone left this stock for dead, it is up about $100 since. they report in the next month or so, i imagine early august. will that be a catalyst? can they say anything in earnings to get the stock through the next level? >> incredible call by the way.
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i think that there are a couple different things. one, i mention skepticism in the x, but there is skepticism in the storage. they say they can fill up the battery factory with just battery storage. i think discussion around the battery factory, which pins the on time deliveries for 2017 will be a good update there. >> ben, great to speak with you, thank you for your time. >> i know you hate the stock -- >> i tell you what, i feel like i've been very neutral on the stone. positive on stational storage for two months since we made this announcement. i think that is the next catalyst. i think they will continue to disappoint with every surprise they get that they're hitting their numbers. i think as they pointed out it is a very, very significant
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break. stationary storage is why this company is very important and why i went reasonably neutral. >> i think the stobl here i'm neutral on it, it probably goes higher in the near term, but there is execution risk here. >> i think we followed it up at 190 and we're here to 270 and 280, and it will consolidate a bit. you trail a stock. put a 270 stock in there. if it blows through that, you get out, you missed a minor call there. >> the other bk. sorry. >> you're a smart man too. >> i think what will happen now is we get closer earnings. more analysts will ramp up the numbers -- >> they see the 4% gain and they're salivating.
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>> probably, but i think they have been doing that for the last couple months. >> i think that is one of the reasons why it has come down where it is. people will throw some stuff out there. >> coming up we're going out to greet for the latest on the referendum. here is what is coming up next on "fast money." how rich would this man be if he bought stocks in 1776. as the nation turns 239, we have what you could own in 230 years. look at this picture, did you catch it? the mall detail that has fans in a tissy.
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leaked photos of the brand new iphone have fans worked up. >> there is no new tech product that will get more attention in the second half of the year than apple's new iphone. we could be getting our first look at the 6s.
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the new phone looks very similar to the 6 and 6 plus. at least on the outside. no big notice changes to the next generation model. the final model could have tweaks. the changes will be on the inside including a update to siri and maps and it could have force touch, meaning a pressure sensitive display. they sold 61 million iphones, a jump up 40% year over year bhap will demand be like? ben of creative strategies, a tech firm, says there are a lot on apple fans all over the world still waiting to upgrade. tim cook said only about 20% of the install base moved to the 6 and 6 plus. that leaves a lot of potential
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upgrade head room and it is not just current apple users that could upgrade, it's first time buyers. there are more and more switchers coming from android. the only risk to 6s adoption for that group is he thinks that they move instead to discounted 6 and 6 plus models. we will find out this fall. >> thank you. we should let you know that part of the nine to five photos will speed up downloads dramatically. >> and it will improve battery life. we had a lot of chats about apple musics and why this is now a services and software company. but the refresh cycle very, very powerful. i think the expectations for next quarter are not terribly
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high when you consider where we have come from. >> let's look at qualcomm then. the stock looks awful. even though they have had a buy back and major changes, i don't think they will move the needle this quarter. if anything you may want to sell some of it. >> i like apple into the refresh cycle. it will be a great refresh cycle. the speed is important, but siri and maps, do i really need improved enhancements there? i really don't. i worry about future quarters and sales for the next quarter. >> however, if you look at the trough at effectively $62, trading close to that this week, i think $62 -- i thought it had tremendous tail winds, i have been wrong before. but i think it is finally time to go with qualcomm.
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>> how do these guys get pictures? >> i wonder. >> it's all part of apple's plan. all part of the plan. they leak it out. >> coming up, are you worried about greece? relax, we have three ways to profit no matter what. and shares of shake shack have been taken to the wood shed. now could be the time to buy. we have a unique method for valuing the stock. you don't want to miss it. more "fast money" ahead. kids are expensive.
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welcome back to cnbc's "fast money." i'm in athens, greece. the greek people were promised if they gave a no vote, that they would come to a better deal in brussels tomorrow. also that the banks will not be closed for long. he may not even have any power over the bangs. the ecb is waiting to see the referendum on sunday just like every other european institution
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is as well. they have cold the greeks see this vote on whether or not you want to say in the euro. for more on greece and how you might trade it. we have three ways you can profit from the vote. memelissa, there is a numbe of ways people are playing this. if you look at some of the etfs that benefit when the euro rices. if there is a vote and that vote means yes, they want to stay in the euro zone, if it rises a slew goes up with them as well. spain, italy, and france post games of 6% over a five-day period. at times the euros rose at least 2.5% over a five-day period.
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what it comes down to is a lot of these country etfs and whether they have exposure to the euro. and they may help it decide -- full subscribers can get that story online right now. >> there is reactions you have to make in assumption for a reaction to this vote to impleni impleme implement. >> yes, these are just correlation vierms that we picked out about stocks or etfs that go up in tandem with the euro. it is important to know this. these are etfs that are unhedged for currency. if you're unhedged that means if
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the currency goes up it provides a tail wind to that etf. so the urnsy value itself playing a role in the value in the etfs on the country specific side if they go up or down. >> have you done any work for if it gets weaker. this was a great rally, as the year started to recover, the world's largest exported economy -- just curious if you have done work on that. >> we don't have stats on this, but when you have a weaker currency and you're an exporting nation, it makes your goods more competitive. that is pieces behind why they will do better. the real issue is whether or not
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you see the moves from the investing standpoint. you're a dollar investor. as you watch, like the dax. it makes a record headline it goes up by some 20% the first time. they didn't realize all of those gains because of those particular units in dollars. that becomes about issue that drags on the returns. >> thank you, have a great weekend. >> you too. >> so what do you do in the event of a yes vote and what do you do in the case of a no vote. my thought is the no vote, i think it will last for a few days. there is a lot of confusion
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there. if we see a pull back, i say selectively add to your longs. there is no reason to go out and rush and buy. the weakness will probably last a long time. >> i think that if we see -- u.s. equities, i love large cap bio tech stocks. i think there is opportunity there. ly be buying on any kind of weakness. >> i go to what dom said, ewp. it will rally the most and you will get the currency boost. ek? >> i think you stay long. you get long in the euro. the reason why is it will just -- >> no matter what? >> on a yes or a no. think about it this way, if you get a yes vote, you get a relief rally in the euro. not only that but the etfs that tim talked about are overhedged.
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you get a yes vote, the euro rallies. you get a no vote, and look what happened on monday. everyone used the drop in the euro as a reason to fill it. to me i think that is still the market that you have out there. so you by fxe. >> are you long euro? >> i am into the weekend. >> any perceived negative, we talked about this for awhile. you buy it if it gets down to 28. you buy that dip. any perceived positive and i think you will see strength in deutsch bank. so i think you buy the break out or the dip. germany is clearly right in the middle. i think that is how you trade it. >> okay, here is a twist on this play book. yes or no vote. what happens in the u.s. -- you address it, so -- >> yes vote, stocks will test
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the s&p. they will have a reason to rally. a week where china and puerto rico are also big distractions. they look okay, they relatively tied up their problem. europe is what is bothering u.s. stocks right now. >> i think the equities are not ready for that. >> but you don't chase the upside on a rip. i don't think you chase it. >> time for big movers of the day. >> we talked about this for a couple weeks, the pricing for the cystic fibrosis drug, it got the bounce. despite the high valuation, i think you continue to stay with it. >> a drop for humana. >> it's for sale, we have known that for a long time. there is confusion around the transaction. there is a big derisking in the name right now.
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i think they have something here. >> a couple follow through on the back of it, but the argument is that there is a lot of competition out for these guys. a lot of people thought they were broken. you take a look, it is not broken. >> this was on the settlement on the deep water, up 5% or so. this went up on the 50 day average, and if you look at oil, it is starting to break down again. >> and a pop for turtle vision. check out this amazing footage at the great barrier reef. conservationists attach ad go pro to the shell to get a turtle eye view of the sea. >> that is awesome. >> so what if go pro had a --
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instead of using a turtle. >> that should be their next thing. >> have you ever been turtling? >> i'm going to go to break. coming up, i'm not going to, i'm going to pretend i didn't hear that. our own brian kelly is gearing up for a special blind burger taste test determine who is the real burger king. you can watch us during the commercial break. for the rest of you, see you in two. that's why i have the spark cash card from capital one. i earn unlimited 2% cash back on everything i buy for my studio. ♪ and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business...
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that's huge for my bottom line. what's in your wallet?
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>> the fourth of july is just two days away and families are doubling down on fireworks and firing up the grills. we have a break down on how much the average family will spend on independence day. >> this fourth will be lucrative because it is on a saturday. they're getting started early. here at cnbc we started even earlier. >> this is amazing. >> oh, yeah. we lit that baby up at 4:45 a.m.
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pacific this morning for squawk box. fireworks are expecting to do very big business even though there are drought problems. national retailers have seen no impact on sales yet in california despite how try dry is. >> you're not going to smoke a cigarette while putting gas in your car. as for barbecue, beef, and beer, the average barbecue this year will cost someone less than $6 per person. and that includes burgers and dogs and potato salad. when you had in beer, party
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fixins. the average household will pay nearly $350. part of that is because we will spend a billion on beer and we will eat 190 million pounds of beef. and i have started on both already. >> good american jane wells. thank you. in the spirit of the fourth of july, we decided to have our own competition. we wanted to know what burger is the best. we have bk here and we blinded him. we have burgers from mcdonalds, shake shack, and wendys. i'm going to hand you a fork, you don't know which one it is. bonn appetit. >> you don't have to guess yet.
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that is burger number one. burger number two. there you go -- >> all right. >> oh -- i like that one. i can already tell you that. burger number three, last one. >> hmm, very dry bun. no one likes dry buns, i'm going burger number one, and which fast food chain do you think burger number one was. i'm think it was shake shack. >> take your blind fold off, bk. you got it right. shake shack. very nice. what is a trade here, then? guy, what -- >> just because you like to eat the product doesn't mean it is a
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good stock. >> good job by bk there. a clear con -- expert on beef. it is cheap, i get it, but i think the business is declining. i think you could be short on mcdonald's. >> i would go the other way, there is no reason to short them. they're doing may jr. changes, but this is a brand, they're dead, they're not traveling around the world. when i d wendy's to me is dead in the water. they have the same problems as mcdonald's. >> and wendy's buns are dry.
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>> absolutely. >> steve -- >> i tell you what, i think mcdonald's is dead money. it's all about the turn there. they restricted seeing the quarterly previews. they have to do a lot of work to turn around. shake shack, this company is way, in my opinion, way overpriced. i think there is -- i'll tell you what. shake shack's sales are -- you're talking about 13 stores they're monitoring. 13 stores, they're projecting to grow to like 450. they're all new york baitsed stores and it's moving outside of new york. bk, you like the burger the best, is it the best trade? >> i took a picture today, shake shack, about 11: 00 a.m. i walked by a shake shack, and there was a line outside of
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shake shack, and mcdonald's was empty. i guarantee you at 6:00 a.m. there was no line to get a mcmuffin. still ahead, america's 239th birthday this week. in honor of a milestone, we'll have stocks that you should hold for the next 239 nines. and shares of micron getting crushed this week. (vo) rush hour around here starts at 6:30 a.m. - on the nose. but for me, it starts with the opening bell. and the rush i get, lasts way more than an hour. (announcer) at scottrade, we share your passion for trading. that's why we've built powerful technology to alert you to your next opportunity. because at scottrade, our passion is to power yours.
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shares of dupont sinking to a low today. it makes up the buzz kill and a thorn in the side of nelson peltz. >> he sent a letter to the board, i think march 14th, the stock spiked to $80 and it has never seen that level again. it is going straight down since. we have 2% from the all time high. here is a stock that has come off some 18% of the last two months. something is askew. it turns out maybe he is right. maybe they need to shake it up,
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but you have to avoid the stock until at least earnings which are on july 31st. >> a more likely candidate for change? >> absolutely. if you follow him in at any point into that notice or after it, you have gotten hurt. i think the more pain to the downside you wait to get long until earrings release. the country's birthday is this saturday, and some american companies have been around almost as long as the constitution, but should you buy and hold for the next 230 years. so let's get the picks. we're fast money, we don't typically say buy and hold forever, but -- this is refreshing, long money, slow money. >> i like google. i like it short term and long term.
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so i think that google, building fiberoptic is an interesting play here for the long term. they're investing a lot overseas. they have a lot of people working to build this infrastructure. i think this will die them in in a different way. they really have a key investment in this that will pay off long term. >> i guess this will be the equivalent of a drawer pick? >> yes, put it in a drawer, you forget about it. wake up -- >> well, tesla is doing okay. but on this one i think you buy the china a shares. that is one way to play it. who knows what 239 years. this is china century. it was the u.s. century in 1900, same thing in china. they will have depressions, crashes, and bubbles.
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239 years from now it will be higher. >> lockheed martin. they don't just make planes. this is a great technology company. they trade at 15 times forward earnings. all of the upcycle is ridiculous. every two weeks it feels like they get a new contract. >> that is funny. i caught that. i chose to not acknowledge it. >> s&p, and you can buy it now, and you could not do it before. investors are taking an indexed and long term approach. this will continue to do it. continue to improve, the at&t stock that your grandfather bought a long time ago, just buy
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the s&p. one big option trader smells some opportunity. mike joins us from his favorite studio, which looks to me, i think, like a chinese restaurant. >> first of all, we don't have general's chicken, we have lobster spring roles here. what we saw on micron technology was a lot of buying of the january 2017 calls. it looked like someone bought over 20,000 of those paying $1.75. how much? 40% or more would be the bet that would make this trade profitable in 18 months. >> all right, thank you for that. enjoy your spring roles. i'll see you next week on option's action. we'll come right back, stay tuned. i'm here at the td ameritrade trader offices.
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ahh... steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place that lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim? for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this.
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welcome back to "fast." earlier in the show we did a
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blind burger taste test. earlier if you were on periscope you saw us getting ready. brian kelly was slowly walked over to the burgers. if you don't want to miss any action, long on to periscope. you get the point. time for the final trade. tim seymour, what do you say? >> happy fourth, kids, careful with the fire crackers. facebook. >> david seaburg. >> zayo. this company will benefit from more bandwith snp. >> on monday, you're short deutsche bank. >> you did a great job on the burger thing. >> i feel like i kind of killed it. >> your eating skills are -- >> this periscope thing will
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catch on. we just say we are scoping. final thing, valero. bringing it to the upside. >> we'll see you back here my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money," welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i want to save you money. my job is not just to entertain but teach and coach. call me or tweet me @jim cramer. nobody, i repeat nobody likes to be disciplined. they don't like to be admonished and they don't like to follow

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