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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  July 6, 2015 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT

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airline stocks. ual, delta as well as alaska airways also closing with very solid gains. oils pressure helping. top analysts to say whether or not this sector has moved past those allegations of collusion. >> i was going to say, transports still, melissa, they should be doing better given this huge plunge in order. but something for you guys to explore. straight over to you. >> thanks a lot, kelly. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq marketsite overlooking new york city's times square i'm melissa lee. pete najarian, dan nathan, karen finerman and guy adami. tonight on "fast" the great wall of worry for stocks. greece, china and oils plunge all weighing on markets. o'so we've got your three stocks to buy right now with volatility back in play. plus general motors dropping below its ipo price of 33 bucks a share for the first time this year. phil lebeau will join us with a special report on what's behind that decline. but first to the oil crash. crude tank to the tune of about 8%. logging its worst performance since april. this as we sit less than 24 hours away from a potential
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iranian nuclear deal which could result in a flood of millions of barrels of oil per day to the global market. guy adami. >> so now -- well, pete can speak to the lvx. that's had a huge move today. and the oil space has been under pressure now for a while. i thought it was taking a pause up around that $60 level, was going to break up one of two ways. now think it's finally showing its hand. how do you play it? we're going to talk about the refiners later. but look at what tesoro and valero did today. despite what people's arguments about, is it deflationary, is it a demand issue, we can have that conversation later. to me the way to play the energy space given the move in crude and given what i think will be the follow-through in crude, is to stay long the name as we talked about over the last couple weeks. tso and vlo. >> in addition to those names western refine hg a nice gain today, pete. >> you mentioned volatility and guy mentioned the lvx. you look at the lvx today that's one of the most incredible moves today of the entire year. 20% higher on this big spike. now, before we were talking about the lvx being in the 60s, now we're talking about the 40s.
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but nonetheless a very huge move, it shows you what people are thinking right now in oil and how they actually are probably mispricing it and having a difficult time pricing it. when you look at the bond market that tells you a lot about how these oil stocks are trading, how the energy space in general is trading. there is so much in there right now and folks are very, very nervous. i was looking at sandridge. leon cooperman dumped it on june 19th. but you look at some of these names, there are names out there we will not be talking about in a year or thereabouts. >> the issue, the dead issuance of these oil companies. >> right. it's incredible. some of the yields are there for five-year bonds are just absolutely ridiculous. and i don't think they'll ever be able to -- >> wait. you're saying they'll go under, not that they'll get taken over. >> exactly right. i think that's the direction we're looking at right now. >> you like to look at the debt. >> i do like to look at the debt. this is clearly a very, very big move but i don't know how short-lived it will be. clearly a lot of macro items that are weighing on the
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markets. i would be waiting a little bit longer. i probably won be shorting the debt because it could snap back very sharply. >> this is a 10% decline in wti in the past three sessions. >> and guy started talking about is it a supply thing, is it iran. this is obviously also a demand thing. when you think about how poorly emerging markets are acting, their equities right now and some of the issues that we have. there's no doubt in my mind it's been a demand thing all along. and i'm just going to mention one other thing. if you want to look at the refiners and take some solace in that as far as the oil trade, you're looking at the wrong thing. those things are outliars and you want to look at one of the largest market cap companies in the world which is exxonmobil here that's down 11% on the year. it's actually touched a new 52-week low today. and when you have that sort of price action for whatever reason i don't think you want to get near the space right now, especially when you see the underlying commodity move the way it did. i don't think oil's done going down until you have a 20% capitulation in a very short period of time and it may happen this week. >> you may 100% be right in
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terms of exxon but the refiners have been the stalwarts, sort of the ones that have been off on their own. they pulled back when crude started to rally. obviously you saw the move today. i think if you continue to see a weakness in t.i. you're going to continue to see the tso and vlo move to the up side. i could see tesoro going to 95 and north thereof. and valero i think's going to test the all-time high we made a few years ago. >> we'll talk about transports and specifically airlines in a little bit. but take a look at some of the corollary trades. i want to put that in quotes because if you take a look at solar stocks there's really no technical or fundamental relationship between crude oil and solar stocks and yet the solar stocks are getting crushed. look at vivant solar. sun power. not just today. over the past month. >> and we talked about that as oil was going up. now we're talking about it as oil is going down. it may not make sense but that has been the trade and energy's moving in that space and you look at oil itself, you tie it toward the solar names, they absolutely have been going lock-step up and down together. >> we saw tesla get killed when
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oil had that first leg down and look at tesla now. guy's been all over this one. it literally closed right below 280, it made that new six-month high a few weeks ago. there is a stock that is obviously disconnected from the market, disconnected with any perception about the price of oil and trading its own. >> just quickly you're in sun edison. >> sun edison. solar edge which was down huge today. i'm in it for the long term. but we had so much momentum on the way up. there is a lockup coming up in a few months. so it's a little ways off. but i've got to hang on at least till then. i hate to see that correlation come back, though. it's back with a vengeance today. >> it is. for more on crude's big deposition let's bring in dennis gartman the editor and publisher of the gartman letter. dennis, great to have you with us. obviously, there are concerns about demand from china as well as europe. but in terms of this potential deal the deadline, if it's not moved, is tomorrow. and that could bring according to morgan stanley between 500,000 and 700,000 barrels onto
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the market late this year or early 2016. do you think that could happen or would that be the worst case scenario in your view? >> i think at least that's going to happen, mel. at least that amount of crude oil's coming. they have 50 tankers parked in the persian gum or out in the indian ocean that are all filled. that is going to be moving into the market very quickly. there's no delay. it's not as if we're going to have to wait six months to get iranian crude. if an agreement is signed, and i think it's going to be a terrible thing if we sign it, but if an agreement is signed so that the vice president can get -- or the secretary of -- come on, dennis. think. >> state? >> i just went blank. yes. he's going to get his nobel prize for striking this deal. we're going to get a lot of crude oil coming out very quickly. and two, i don't think people are paying any attention to the fact that we've had the saudis last night who are clearly defending market share cut their official price to the europeans.
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they didn't cut it by much but they cut it. they're not going to allow the iranians, their avowed enemy, to grab market share. so you have a lot of crude oil coming at you. you have a lot of crude oil coming from the iranians. crude oil that's already out on the market in storage. this market is in very dire straits. and the term structure just keeps widening. the front months keep losing to the back months. and as long as that happens, as long as there's storage there, as long as they're bidding for storage, it's a bear market, period, end of discussion. >> do we see 40 before we see 60? >> well, i mean, you're only a few dollars from 60 as it is. it's not a very fair bet. but i think you're going to see 45 before you see 60. i doubt we see 40. but you're going to see 45. things could get very ugly. and again, there's 50 tankers out there right now. what i find amusing is everybody's trying to find the trade to profit from declining crude oil prices. look at what's going on. tanker shares have been as strong as anything out there.
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yes, you can have the refiners. that's a great idea. but look at the tankers. tankers are being bid for. day rates are going higher. and as i said, there's 50 tankers out there right now. there will be more because there is crude coming at you and it has to go someplace and it's going into tankers. >> you're long some of these tankers, dennis. are you going to go short oil? >> no. i tried tore my own account, i actually tried to get short last week and missed it by 10 cents. can you believe that? makes me so angry. i pulled the wrong trade, did the wrong idea. i squeezed a trade. and the first thing you learn as a floor trader is don't squeeze. if you want to get in get in. i missed it by a dime. that's $7 ago. just a terrible decision on my part. and so it's very difficult at this point after missing $7 or $8 on the down side to say i'll sell it here. give me $2 rally in the next day or two which i don't think is going to happen, i'll sell that. but do i think that's going to happen? probably not. and i'll just end up watching it deteriorate and go lower. so i'll stay long the tanker stocks.
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that seems to be the proper thing to do. >> let's switch gears, dennis. china. finally it's caught your attention. you bought. why? >> i bought it because it came down to what i think are areas of support. we came down to the 200-day moving average. we came down to a trend line. we came down to panic liquidation. we came into the market this morning with the government basically throwing everything they could at it other than a reserve rerktd cut. it's a bounce. let's see what happens. i bought the fxi today for my own account early in the morning. i'm down about five cents from where we bought it. i don't want to give it much more than 2% or 3% on the down side, but if we come in tonight and we've seen the chinese stock market trading better i'll probably add to the trade. so yes, for the first time in a very long while i bought chinese stocks just for my own account. >> so that's the fxi. and dennis, i'm just curious because some would view the reaction in the market as extremely tepid. essentially, beijing pulled out a bazooka with the measures that it's enforcing on the market.
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a and it opened up big and floundered and ended only up 2%. that's extraordinary considering the measures they put into place. >> i'll grant a 2% rally from close to close doesn't look that implefs but a 2% rally after being down 7% during the middle of the day to me is relatively impressive. am i going to mortgage the house to go buy chinese stocks? i think not. i wouldn't even mortgage the dog's house to go buy chinese stocks. but will i buy a little bit right here or did i buy a little bit right here? yeah. i think it's a decent punt. and as i said, i'm not going to miss more than 2% or 3% on the down side. that's enough for me. >> dennis, going to leave it there. thank you. >> welcome back. >> thank you, dennis. dennis gartman of the gartman letter. dan, you also got into china. >> i wouldn't mortgage the dog's house on this either. to me it's kind of like thinking about the nasdaq in april of 2000 after it's already had this really corrective phase, after this overshoot on the up side. to me i think you have to be very nimble. dennis is talking about using a
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2% to 3% stop on the down side. let me just tell you, people, when you look at the shanghai composite, this is the a shares. he's looking not at the a shares. this is the one that's been very volatile and the shenzhen. but in shanghai 3400, that's where it broke out back in february, that is the 200-day moving average. if it cannot hold that in the next couple days you're probably going to see it down another 10%. and that would be equal to about a 50% decline from the highs made just last month. and this is not the sort of price action you want to be buying into. >> the price action of the day was terrible as i mentioned to dennis but if you think about it it's 19 billion u.s. dollars of forced buying and the chinese government is saying go buy these stocks and by the way, you cannot sell them for a year. >> so if you want to play the home game investing is a tough word. the fxi, for the last couple weeks we've been saying given the price action it's probably going to trade back down to 44, the level that it's basically bumped up against in january and february and finally broke out from in march and april.
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here we are closed at 43.85 or so today. to dennis's point with a tight stop this is the level i think you've been looking for for an entry point. again, not for an investment. for a trade. >> up next, don't look now but gm officially trading below its ipo price. a look at what's behind the slide and whether you should take a look at the stock. plus, gopro announce its first all new camera since 2006, and it is small. very small. but could it be the company's secret weapon to get the stock back in motion? and later, a buzz kyl like no other. major chinese internet's fallen off a cliff today. we'll tell you whether any are worth a buy. that's all ahead on "fast."
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. advanced micro taking a dive in the after hours trades. the company announced it is cutting its second quarter outlook citing among other things weaker pc demand. now, the chip maker sees revenues down about 8% over the first quarter. it previously warned of a 3% drop plus or minus 3%. now, the company expects second quarter margins, adjusted gross margins of 28%.
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it had prior said it was going to be 32%. so revenue guidance lowered, profit margin guidance also lowered and as a result you can see right there down 13%, almost a million shares have traded so far after hours. back over to you. >> dom chu, thanks so much. this is a company supposedly in the midst of some sort of a turnaround. it recently got -- recently. within the past ceo. it was transitioning to game chips apparently. >> they've been trying to get away from pc just like everybody. we know the intel story how they've been trying to move toward mobile, wearables. trying to shift away from pc. some being much more successful than others. intel would be one of those. that stock is sitting around $30 a share as well right now. i think what you really want to look for is who's winning and who's losing in the chip world. those that have attached twhaefrlds apple have the best opportunities quite frankly going forward. i'd look at the cirrus logics of the world and some of those names that are absolutely apple dependent rather than some of the other names. >> i would just avoid them right
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now. >> all chips? >> yeah. we've had -- you had all of this m&a over the last couple months here, $60 billion worth of deals, companies that are continually reporting and missing and guiding down. you're going to get a lot more of that in the next couple weeks when we get q2 earnings and q3 guidance. i think you avoid it. you have a shot at intel below 30. obviously it's at 30 right now, 34 a month and a half ago. i think you probably see it at 28. >> chipotle kicking off our top trades. "barron's" out with a bearish article saying the stock could lose as much as 20% as it struggles to grow. chipotle shares are down more than 11% so far this year. guy. >> which puts the quarter coming up right in the crosshairs. trades at close to 30 times forward earnings. the reasons they cited, rising health care costs, rising food costs and the fact they expanded so quickly. all very true. how do you trade the stock? i think you're sorting at 30 times forward earnings. no man's land given you're coming into a quarter that's going to be a huge question mark. i think you've got to wait and see. 10% to 15% gets you basically down to 500. that's the level we broke out from early in 2014.
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sew i say no touch here, wait for earnings, hope it gets down to 500 and buy it there. >> chipotle's also been raising prices. san francisco saw an across the board price increase and other markets. primarily because of beef. you about they've been really grappling with rising input costs and also rising minimum wage costs which are going to eat at all these -- eat at. sorry. these fast food chains. >> definitely something that weighs on the stock but when you look at the stock and where it's come from, down toward $600 a share, it does trade 30 times, you still have rev growth that's 20%. this is a name that still shows you all kinds of growth. yes, it's slowing down. we all expect it to slow down at some point in time. i like this name around $600. i don't think you're going to get that "barron's" number near $500. i don't think you're going to get that opportunity. >> 600's right around here. >> yep. >> i don't know. aren't you afraid that maybe the momentum's broken? great company, still growth, but if the trajectory of the growth -- >> the slowing growth is always something that i think people are always very concerned about. obviously, they're slowing down
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that growth. they've obviously just got to continue to figure out ways that they can actually manipulate these numbers in a much easier way. i think if they start moving into some of their other restaurants as well they aren't just this burrito chain, they've got other areas as well that they can grow in. >> next up, shares of aetna ending lower on news it's agreed to buy humana for about $230 a share in cash and stock. this deal will nearly triple aetna's medicare advantage business. the ceo of aetna speaking earlier today on "squawk on the street" about this deal. >> i think the market's reacting to very high-level data. and when we actually did this analysis at a very detailed market level there's a lot of complementary markets and we view the divestitures as very manageable. they're included in the value of the deal. they're included in our synergy assumptions and our forward projections. >> seems tosh a lot of skepticism, though, about whether or not this deal gets done for whatever reason, whether it be antitrust or the price tag paid for by humana. >> there's no doubt about it. when you look at the entire industry and the consolidation
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aetna has to fight themselves off against unh. very similar to what we're seeing play out right now still with milin and teva and obviously the perago deal. this is something that's defensible and everybody's looking for ways to defend thoevlz able to be out there. i think right now we're going to see one of these deals eventually finally go through. once one goes through i think that's the end of it but this m&a is certainly huge in the space. >> i like how you said we'll see one of these deals without saying the aetna-humana deal will go through. karen. >> we own anthem, which is the old wellpoint. maybe we'll see a zeal in cigna. seems there's a reasonable chance. remember, humana cut their earnings today. while they have the big picture deal on the fundamental basis their medical costs are rising. that's not a great thing. if we do see consolidation, though, they're all winners because of pricing power. fewer number of -- >> do you think anthem cigna is more likely given this deal? >> that is a great question. more likely or less likely? i don't know. maybe they look at them together if there is a deal with
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wellpoint. excellent question there. >> i try. next up here, general motors the auto maker dropping below its ipo price of 33 bucks a share. cnbc's phil lebeau has the details on what is sending this stock lower. phil. >> a lot of this has to do with the sentiment regarding old school auto stocks. we'll talk more about that in a little bit, melissa. but take a look at this stock since middle of march. and remember, it was back in march when mary barra struck the deal with harry wilson who was representing a bun chft hedge funds who had his position in gm. they were going to return more money to investors through a greater dividend, through stock buyback. they were going to increase the return on invested capital. and they've done all that. and yet the stock keeps moving lower, down under $33 a share. just a couple of weeks ago in detroit we asked mary barra about whether or not investors in gm should be frustrated right now. here's what she had to say. >> what do you say about the investors who are frustrated gm's tom price has not moved at all? >> we are working extremely hard
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with vehicles like the chevrolet cruze to continue to put those into the marketplace, driving efficiencies and building our brands. and we're going to continue to do that. and we're on plan. >> they may be on plan in terms of running the auto company. and there's no doubt that they have increased sales and this is a far better-run company than under the old gm. but what's stalling the stock right now, the perception that the auto cycle is near the top or close to the top. the china auto market is slowing down. thank gm announcing sales for the first half actually grew at a slower percentage there than they did here in the north american market in the first half of this year. then there's the perception of old school auto stocks that they're not in vogue, they're not going to grow as quickly as the industry changes in the years to come. need some proof old school auto stocks are out of favor and new school auto stocks are in favor? take a look at shares of tesla since the middle of march. this stock has been on a tear. it's up 54%. rising primarily on the belief that things are going to be
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improving for electric vehicle sales. need another stock that represents new school auto? take a look at mobileeye which makes a lost vehicle parts that are going to go into autonomous drive vehicles in the future. they are the leader in that industry. and guys, at the end of the day when i've talked with people who are either analysts or those who work close to the auto industry, almost all of them say the same thing. you bring up gm on wall street you get a shrug of the shoulders. you bring up mobileye on wall street and everybody says let's talk a little bit because i think the future is bright there. that is at the heart of what's hurting gm right now. >> phil lebeau, thanks for that. fascinating stuff. karen, you have been in general motors. >> i gave up on it. for a lot of reasons. phil was saying we did see the mauto market come back so incredibly strongly after 2008. and yet still the stock couldn't gain traction. and now they have the very difficult fx situation. not just the translation of currency to fewer dollars but the pricing pressure from
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japanese auto makers with the yen where it is. this is difficult. i'd stay away. i think mary barra's great. valuation's not bad. but i feel like they missed the peak. >> got to give goldman sachs credit. june 23rd they downgraded goldman sachs was trading 36 and change. down probably 15% since. they upgraded ford. that stock hasn't rallied but it's down a lot less. how do you trade it? if you look at july 1st they get auto numbers and their inventory is starting to build. up 10% month over month which is not a good sign if you believe this whole peak auto thing. i still think given the choice between two if you want to play the game -- >> would you rather? >> thank you very much. it's ford over gm still. >> we actually have a news alert here on an auto stock, advanced auto parts specifically. dom chu's got the details. >> it's up about 2% in the after hours, melissa and gang. very light trading volume. we should point that out, though. the reason why is because it is going into the s&p 500 effective the close of business on wednesday july 8th. advanced auto parts will now be
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a part of the s&p 500. it's going to replace, again, replace what's happening here with family dollar because of course dollar tree bought family dollar in a transagency action that closed today. advanced auto up. very slight volume. but part of s&p 500 by wednesday's close. >> crude oil down sending the airlines flying. we've got a top analyst in the space. we'll give us his best bet straight ahead. in the meantime here's what else is coming up on "fast." >> big things come in small packages. >> so big. >> i've seen bigger. >> and apparently, gopro took note. the company rolling out its smallest camera ever. but is it a big enough deal to move the needle for the stock? plus volatility is back in play. with worries over greece, china, and oil mounting. but no need to fear. we've got a technician here, with three bulletproof stocks to buy now. all that and more ahead on "fast."
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oil plunging about 8% today shaking the markets but giving airlines a lift. could this oil crash be a major tailwind for the sector? hunter kay is a senior analyst for wolf research.
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great to have you with us. >> thanks for having me. >> was it oil or more the fact people are getting over the allegations of collusion that are out there? >> probably a little bit of both. usually airline stocks are correlated with oil unless oil's doing sml really crazy up or down and given the underperformance we've seen year to date probably a little bit of that rallying but also you mentioned the cid the doj filed last week was pretty encouraged with the way the airline stocks rallied after the news came out that day and being up the next day. and then today a little bit of carry through. and so i think anybody that does any type of analysis that does data or math some conclude that doj investigation doesn't have a lot of legs. >> you think that could be the potential tape for this sector? >> investigation itself is going to be kind of like a black box type of situation, not really going to know what they're looking for. but unless there's some sort of e-mail communication behind the scenes going on with these
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airlines, which i don't know obviously but it would be shocking if that actually was the case, there's just nothing there. there's no data to support this type -- >> but does the -- they don't bring these sorts of -- they just bring them willy-nilly like that without any date o. or math? you seem pretty dismissive of something that seems pretty important to me, especially when i've seen it in other industries. >> sure. and look, i follow this industry very closely. i think there was some political pressures. if you look at the letter from a certain senator, i think it cited a lot of the same information that the doj cited when they failed to block the u.s. airways-american merger. and the fact is that capacity growth is at an eight-year high. pricing is down about 5% this year. the most competitive airports in the country as competitive literally as they've ever been. so the timing of this i don't know, maybe ahead of an election year. maybe it's one periodical -- sort of a populist tantrum. that i think is interesting. but no, there's no data. >> at the same time, hunter, your two top picks are airlines
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that are probably not going to be in the crosshairs of any sort of investigation. rege allegiant and alaska. why? >> that's got nothing to got investigation. concerns about capacity creep which i think is a legitimate concern which i think will get better over time. but allegiant, for example, has the most defensible business model. there's such a mode around that. as i mentioned before the biggest most competitive airports getting more competitive. the biggest airlines are adding xooft, a lot of capacity into the biggest airports. 76% of the revenue in this country is generated at the top 50 airports and seat count at those airports is up about 10% over the last few years and it's down 7% at all other airports. and those are the airports where allegiant operates and makes its money. the secular trends behind that stock are really, really strong. >> hunter, we're going to leave it there. thank you. >> thanks. >> hunter kay of wolf. pete, where do you go? >> well, i think just -- >> the big ones? >> yeah. but to address the collusion thing i thought that was ridiculous when it came out too.
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sounds like hunter agrees with that. it really was the airlines having to show everybody they're going to display discipline. that's what everybody's always asked them. show us discipline. don't have the capacity come on too fast. where you suddenly have all these negatives. and now suddenly being disciplined is also being colle collusive. that whole thing i thought was ridiculous. hunter's looking at regionals. i think when you look at'll the big boys you have just as much up side or potential out of united and delta. he's got an 83 target on united. it's presently trading well below that. i would expect to see if that can actually come to fruition that's a number that could be extremely impressive. >> hunter has a hold on jetblue. he has outperform on some of the other names he covers. which basically means he's negative on jetblue, we'll call a spade a spade. but the stock has traded really well. didn't trade as well as other names today but you're within earshot of an all-time high 22. i think you stay with jetblue into earnings, i think it takes out that $22 level. >> china bouncing back after emergency measures were taken over the weekend. we've got a live report from hong kong ahead of today's open.
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next. plus can gopro's newest camera get the stock back into high gear? behind the company's latest debut and what ceo nick woodman has to say about the competition. we live in a pick and choose world.
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welcome back to "fast
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money." stocks closing in the red to start off the week as fears of a greece and china weigh on the markets. the major averages finishing well off session lows, though, with the dow closing down just 46 points. here's what's coming up in the second half of "fast money." gopro's newest gadget. the company unveiling a brand new action camera. but with the stock down 20% so far this year will it be enough to get investors' adrenaline pumping? we'll hear what the ceo nick woodman had to say about this new camera. and later, stocks have been on a wild ride as fear creeps into these markets, but there's still plenty of money to be made. we'll tell you the three bulletproof names to help protect your portfolio. but first, china stepping up efforts to stabilize its slumping stock market. cnbc's susan lee is in hong kong with the details and what to expect ahead of today's open. hi, susan. >> hey, melissa. yes. you had the bernanke put in the u.s. i'm calling this the china put. basically these unprecedented measures. liquidity the government's been trying to roll out in order to prop up the stock market, put a floor to it. so you've been talking about it on cnbc.
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there's a $20 billion stabilization fund that these brokerages have put together to back these blue chip stocks and they've promised they won't be filling them as long as the shanghai composite is below 4500. when i speak to investors, the most important measure that was announced this weekend was the halting of ipos. you had these 28 companies that got the graen light to list their shares on the exchange. probably through some state pressure said okay, we're going to hold back on these and there is no determined timeline on when they're going to start selling shares once again. this has been draining liquidity. hence the market has been selling off. so you have the investors that have been invested, they've been selling out of their holdings raising cash, looking to get into these new issuances. and hence you have kind of a bear market with 30% down in the stock market. but also there isn't a lot of enthusiasm, optimism going forward. some are saying these are just short-term measures, how much of an impact will they actually have? if you look at the stock market volatility it's still with us. top and tail shanghai yesterday it was down 10%. small caps were down some 18% with the futures at one point.
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so volatility still with us. and you know, what can be done about it? it really depends on sentiment right now. the most concerning part is about the margin financing, the lending because there's been a huge amount of leverage in the market. some estimating including goldman sachs saying we're at 12% of free float. if you equate that to gdp. 3 1/2%, that's the largest in equity history. if you go back to 2007 when he had we had the last stock market crash in china they didn't even allow margin financing. sought point is people are concerned this time around maybe this has a filter through effect and it could cascade into the broader economy if we do continue to have this stock market selldown. back to you guys. >> susan li in hong kong. thanks so much for joining us. appreciate it. it's interesting that she said there's a lack of on the miz nm this market even with this $20 billion that's supposed to come into the market. >> there should be a lot of fear. i think about our market in the last major manipulation we had in our equity markets when they wouldn't allow shorting of financial stocks, which was a very brief rally, then followed by a very, very sharp down move in the financials.
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this -- i wouldn't touch it. >> but susan just mentioned something that's really important. worry about that wealth effect that was create when'd this market went from 5 trillion to 10 trillion and now it's coming back and what does that mean for the economy? what does it mean for discretionary spending about this emerging middle class there? it could be very, very devastating especially when you qur the fact that all this margin was used. you could have people much worse off than they were three months ago. >> right. but your point, you're connecting the dots earlier today on our conference call to apple. i would agree that it could be impacted. >> let's do this. no, let's do it right now. >> a stock like alibaba or -- >> no. we haven't mentioned apple yet, mel. so here's the deal. >> more impacted than apple. >> in that fiscal that they reported in april they saw sales in china grow 70% year over year. 70%. at that point the shanghai composite was up about 70% or something like that. when you think about all of the wealth that was created from the stock market being inflated and they sold more iphones in china in the fiscal q2 than they sold
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here in north america. so i don't have any data. i know our airline guy likes data and math. i don't have the data. it's purely anecdotal. but there's no reason to suggest that if you see the stock market continue to come in that chinese people are going to stop buying iphones. it's just that simple. >> i think you disagree. >> well, i disagree. >> at the pace at which they did in the last quarter. >> i have a disagreement. but in any case, when you're looking at this market right now, and she mentioned it sefrlt times, talked about leverage, she talked about -- one of the things i think people are missing out on is when you see harsh selling like we saw today, they're looking for where there's liquidity and where liquidity is that's where people are dumping. like for instance you brought up vip shops or whatever. double normal volume today. that was absolutely slammed. then you look over at baidu. where they can find liquidity, that's where people seem to be wanting to move right now because they've got all of this extra added leverage and everything else that they want to be able to trade off of. >> so connect the dots for me. because we saw a huge flush
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downward -- >> in certain areas, yeah. >> -- in some of these chinese internet stocks. cena, sohu. >> so while folks are scrambling around right now, scrambling and trying to find where can i get liquidity -- >> but that's something different. these are stocks in america, adr, american investors trading those. and what's going on with the a shares and the h shares, it's a totally different investor base. so here we had a lot of american investors who bought into this bubble and now they're liquid e liquidating. to me they're two very different things. >> i think chair chasing each other around quite frankly and i think it's a circle. >> so they're not buys. because a lot of these chinese stocks they're incorporated in delaware, they're incorporated in cayman islands, they're listed here in the united states, they're not adrs -- >> alibaba -- >> it's a market company that trades at its loerkz one of the worst acting $200 billion market cap companies in the world right now and it's likely to see its ipo price of 68 bucks again before this is all said and done. >> i love the angry dan. real quick. >> is there a nice dan?
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>> last week we talked about the opportunities in the casino stocks, specifically you mentioned las vegas sands and wynn on a lousy day today both of those names were up. i say again pete can speak to wynn because he did last week because las vegas sands against $50 like we flagged i think you zpa with it on the long side. >> coming up, a crazy day for u.s. stocks as china, greece, and oil all weigh on the market. the traders give their best picks to protect your portfolio. plus we've got a top technician with three names that could break out despite all the volatility right after the break. carter braxton worth joins us. more "fast money" straight ahead.
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what's in your wallet? welcome back to "fast money." the s&p 500 just barely holding on to gains for the year, but there are still plenty of ways to make money and protect your portfolio. cornerstone macro's head of technical analysis carter worth is over at the smart board with the three stocks you buy in this volatile market. carter, take it away. >> sure. so in a very sort of up and down kind of environment often favoring relative strength makes a lot of sense. so three great sectors of course health care, financials and consumer discretion and then finding stocks that themselves in their soerkts are outperforming the outperforming sectors. so three names, mohawk is a favorite here. i've got a nice breakout which we can all see there.
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but what i also like about it is this sort of ascending wedge which means we've worked ourselves into something of a triangle here and the presumption is that this standoff after the breakout will be resolved to the up side. so first one. second, allergan. well-defined up trend. but what i kind of like is this stall. here's how i would draw it. for about four months. a lot of tension. the presumption is this too gets resolved to the up side. all these moves between 8% and 10%. then finally morgan stanley. again a sector that's outperforming the market on a 60 to 90 basis and a stock that's outperforming the sector. what my eye seies, basic up friend. we think we're going to approach the top of the up trend just as we've been at the top and at the bottom consistently. we're looking for 8% to 10% moves in each of these. good names to be long in this kind of environment. >> and carter, just give us just briefly your overall take on the markets. bulls would argue that we're still close to record highs and therefore the market's holding
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up quite nicely and bears would say with all this global turmoil who knows? >> that's just it. we're basically unchanged. we know this for about seven months now. and the bear view would be it's a stall before the storm. the bull argues it's the pause that refreshes. we're in the former camp. we think there's a lot of deterioration technically, the breath isn't good, and we think equities as a proposition are not a good one. >> all right. carter, thanks for coming by. >> thank you. >> carter braxton worth of cornerstone macro. of the three allergan, mohawk, morgan stanley. pete. >> i'm going with morgan stanley. would you rather? i'm going there. of the three. number one. >> would you rather rather? >> would you rather rather -- >> would you rather rather? >> i'll play the game. >> yeah. >> in order i'm going to go mohawk -- if you look at the eps growth. they're about 25 times eps growth. not a big multiple. yes, the stock's been on a ride. morgan stanley 2. allergan 3. >> karen. >> morgan stanley 1. just valuation basis.
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cheap as other financials yet it has some other more recurring revenue stream. i like morgan stanley. >> would you rather rather? >> i'm not going to play. >> come on. >> i'm just going to tell you guys that teed up here in europe with the european banks. morgan stanley of those three is going to be the most -- >> you can't just play the game? so make it third on the list. >> maybe you get one pick and -- >> he's so uncooperative. it's crazy. >> it's too late, baby. >> still ahead, gopro launching its smallest camera ever after the break ceo nick woodman explains the surprising group the company is targeting with its latest launch. much more "fast money" straight ahead. more and more, data is visual. in fact, the number of mris has increased by ten percent a year. and a radiologist might view a thousand images to find one tiny abnormality in shape, contrast or movement. because it's so challenging, a research project is teaching ibm watson to see. in the future, it could help clinicians
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gopro unveiling its latest addition to the hero family. cnbc's josh lipton live in our san francisco bureau with the details. hey, josh. >> hey, melissa. well, it's smaller, lighter, and it's waterproof. hero 4 session retails for 400 bucks. it will be available on july 12th. ceo nick woodman telling me this camera is designed not just for surfers and snowboarders but also moms and dads. >> i'm a father of three. and when something's happening in my household and i run to
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grab the camera i want something that's fast and easy to use and session is very fast. just press the button on top. it turns on in about three seconds and begins recording video automatically. now i'm recording you just like that. >> gopro's stock is up more than 100% since its ipo last summer though down about 45% from that all-time high. for gopro to move higher the company has to introduce both new hardware as well as new software tools making it easier for users to edit and share their content. woodman says the company is hard at work at just that. >> we've been investing really heavily over the last three years in evolving gopro not just as a hardware company but as an end to end hardware and software company that makes it easy to go from a great afternoon in the pool with the kids to sharing it quickly thereafter. >> woodman says gopro is testing a new editing solution right now which he expects to roll out
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soon. melissa, back to you. >> all right. thanks so much, josh lipton. of course at the latest analysts' meeting they talked about vr. they talked about drones as being a huge catalyst in the pipeline. and yet this stock is lousy. i don't care how much you love it. the product, the stock is no friend to you. >> it's been hanging around. you make a good point. it's actually sold off a little recently. today it was underneath 50, came back pretty nicely. this is a name. we talked about the hardware, the software, the editing and they're talk about this quick boot and start with this new camera. they're addressing what people want. and i think what they want is what they're going to get and that's what nick woodman and his group are actually able to deliver that. i think for those reasons you look at the forward, it's a 29 multiple. that doesn't seem that bad to me, especially when you consider there is international growth and there's still penetration within the u.s. i like this name right here. >> goldman sachs initiated coverage today. >> neutral. >> neutral rating. $6. $60 price tag, which is about $9
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from where it is now. saying the next three mus years they're facting in 20-plus percent annual growth rate for eps as well as revenues. >> i still think they can make the transition to a media company. i still believe. but to pete's point, since the beginning of june it's not traded well. it was $60 this time last month. i thought they had their mojo back. they don't. yes, it trades at a high multiple but i do think they can make the transition. i believe in it. but to your point it's very difficult to try to be long this stock because the head fakes have been significant over the last year or so. >> what's baked into the stock is -- there was a chart in the jmp securities note i was reading about drones saying that the average person, the average interest, the sales are going to grow from here until 2020, which is five years, 3 1/2 times. in that segment of the market. and that will be the highest growing segment of the market compared to the prosumer or the commercial. the average people who want to buy drones as a hobby. >> gopro you're saying -- >> no, the market overall.
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>> oh, yeah. >> the worst thing that ever happened to the stock was trading at 90. if you'd taken out that chapter of the stock i think it's actually -- >> the fire eye chapter. >> yes. >> that's a very -- that is an interesting -- that's why you two went to an ivy league school. that's very good. >> we try. shares of valero surging to a multiyear high today. some traders are betting the stock may have come a bit too far too fast. dan's at the smart board with the action. hey, dan. >> you just said we were talking about it earlier, the refiners are really outliers here. valero made a new 52-week and multiyear high today. 1 1/2 times average daily volume. there was a buyer of 4,000 of the july 10th weekly puts. they expire this friday of the 65 puts paying 90 cents to open those break even at 64-10 down 2% to the down side. when you look at the stock it's just an amazing chart right here. this is the level. it's consolidating at these highs right here. here's the thing about these weekly options. when you buy them you are just
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long premium right here. and if you get the timing wrong and the direction wrong and the magnitude of the roof wrong you have a total loss here. so you know, option prices is implied volatility. it's relatively low. it's picking up a little bit with the underlying volatility in you'd oil here. but generally i'm not a huge fan of doing this on a directional basis because if you do it frequently you're going to lose a lot of premium but maybe this person has enjoyed some big gains and looking to protect just this week. >> thanks a lot, dan. and "options action" comes back this friday. >> oh. >> yeah. your first trade for tomorrow when we come right back. stay tuned. here at td ameritrade, they work hard. wow, that was random. random? no it's all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement.
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time for the final trade around the horn we go. petey. >> one of the impressive areas of the market's been the xlv. inside of that i'll look at lilly. lilly continues to trade extremely well. i think you can continue to own this stock. i do. i think it's going higher. >> dangry dan. >> you think the market's going to continue to be angry over the course of the summer. i think portfolio protection trade could be behind the tlt u.s. treasuries are the only true safe haven out there and if things continue to stay volatile the fed's not raising rates in the fall. >> karen. >> do not get sucked into this weight watcher takeover story.
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the debt's trading at 50 cents on the dollar. stay away. >> bristol trades at a big valuation. i think you continue to own it into earning p. >> i'm melissa lee. thanks for watching. see you back here tomorrow at 5:00 for more "fast money." meantime, don't my mission is simple -- to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm trying to make you a little money. my job isn't just to entertain but to teach and coach you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me @jim cramer. this show is based on one heretical idea that it's possible for

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