>> live from new york where business never sleeps this is squawk box. >> good friday morning. welcome to squawk box here on cnbc. i'm kelly evans with joe kernen. becky and andrew will be back on monday. what a week it's been for the markets. the index down about 1% this week but that hardly tells you the story when you take into account all the swings the dow travelled more than 2200 points this week and as for today's trading session it's shaping up to be a positive one. check out the futures at this hour. after strong sessions in europe and china the s&p 500 looking to open up higher by 18 points. the dow by 150. the nasdaq adding 42 and here's european stocks in early trading

bolstered by hopes of a deal in greece with greece. 11,200 the level there. italy urging 2.5%. portugal up about 2.8. >> here's the big stories the market is watching today. greece of course. athens sending a new package of reform proposals to its creditors asking for $59 billion to help cover it's debts until 2018. the greek parliament will vote on the plan today. meantime leaders from the imf, the eu the ecb and euro group are set to confer on greece in the next hour. a live report from michelle in athens in just a moment with all of the latest there. and then we will be joined by former ecb president jean-claude trichet. another big story this morning and all week china. stocks there rising by almost 5% overnight. the big drivers, hopes for

greece but also perhaps more importantly the various support measures being announced by beijing this week. more from our colleagues in asia a bit later on this half hour as well. also watch oil today. prices are likely to fall even further pushed down by what it is calling massive oversupply. this rebalancing is likely to last well into next year. here's a check on crude oil right now this morning. wti, firmer by just about three quarters of 1% as is brent. so on both side of the atlantic we can seeing crude a little bit firmer but joe as we have seen every single day can bring a new trading pattern. there's really no near term pattern we can look to to say here is where it is going and even companies haven't been able to predict well enough to hedge. >> which crisis to point to? china, greece iran because we're going to get a deal or not going to get a deal.

good morning, angles. it's totally lost on you guys that intro music. >> as soon as you said it we got it. >> i was going to say austin powers. >> that fits too. we were going to do some three's company. we can do that later -- >> we know about three's company. >> i started the hour by tweet chg ing which is a really millennial thing to do. >> earlier this week magnum pi was in the news and we played that theme song. we're going to come together on common ground. >> taylor swift apparently. you're going to see her tomorrow. >> i'm seeing her tonight. >> i'm seeing her tomorrow night. >> i'm sad i'll miss you. i knew a guy that was dating a longer lady and they were on a long ride together and they decided to sing to pass the time. the star spangled banner was the only song they both knew. >> we'll find some common ground. >> in this millennial --

>> what's your favorite taylor swift song? >> red. i only know a couple. >> you have a day to study up. >> loving you guys is like driving a new mazarati down a dead end street. >> now i've got you together. this is fun. >> you're doing your normal schedule? >> i appreciate you joining me on closing bell. >> it's going to be great. i'm going to try to get there. as for the broader markets check out the euro this morning. what does the euro want? what does germany want? no wonder they want to keep it in the eu. it's up today. we'll see whether there's anything to this. don't you guys think it looks pretty good? did you see my tie? this is uncle sam but don't you think there will be some can kicking today after all the kicking we've seen up to this

point. >> i'm surprised they don't make a version of that tie with mario draghi. >> they do. >> you had to love wolfgang's comment about how he was going to trade with jack lew. >> and he said there's no way this works without a hair cut but we don't give haircuts but there's something they can do. >> it's all about the language. >> it's all about the language. the same thing today. it's not that different. the proposal from what's been out there in the past. >> right. but there is -- i don't understand the referendum when you're going to not live up to it and not appease the far left. >> but the central peace was that greece wants debt forgiveness and they were running a primary budget surplus and had come through the worst of the downturn. all the worst were there. >> but now they're saying as soon as next week we will start

raising taxes. we will cut our pensions. >> but they get a little bit of debt relief don't they? >> i don't know if that's enough. that's going to be the central question. going home to the greeks to say is i got debt relief and forgiveness. >> they're not in a strong bargaining position at this point, right? >> this is not four years ago. the first time it came to the floor you could argue systemic risk and that's not happening this time around. >> let's look at the other markets. it was disappointing yesterday the way it was enable to hold those 200 point gains at the open. cramer was saying don't believe this right from the start. what did we end up? 30 points. did either of you -- you probably don't get up early enough to watch this. did any of you see the market cap of apple yesterday? >> what did it pass? >> 690. >> it fell the other way. 784. i said it's hard to grow to a trillion and all the analysts that come on here and say it's

going to double again. from 784. that's 1.5 trillion. it doubled already to get up to 784. my contention is no matter what you never know why something doesn't workout. >> but do you know what today is? it's the 7th birthday of the app store. the app store has only existed for seven years if any company deserves a $1 trillion valuation it's apple. >> but that's a small revenue. it's a hardware company through and through. >> who bullish on apple has not acted at this point. >> a lot of hedge funds sold out. remember when it was the most known stock on the street. >> microsoft at 600 billion and sis coe at 600 billion. it's tough to go from 600 to a trillion. >> sure. >> and you don't think apple can close that gap? >> no i think it's hard to grow to a trillion and i think that in hindsight we never know why

it doesn't happen and right now the idea is that the penetration of the iphone and the rest of the world is so small, we never know how that doesn't workout. that the price for perfection price. something comes a long. somebody else -- steve jobs isn't around anymore. >> but did you see 90 million units. >> but this was in the story in the journal yesterday. he back in '07 said i don't think that. >> at 780 whenever analyst comes on and says there's no way this is not cheap, why did it go to 690. >> you know, joe, that's the market. that's what happens. >> the market dictates over fundamentals sometimes. for more on greece -- plus the dow hasn't moved since they added it to the dow. another curse. overseas, steve is in frankfurt but let's begin with michelle because we did have a lot of -- you round out. you're the third -- i don't know if you're jacqueline smith. i hope that these guys have at

least seen one of the movies. i said to kelly and he said -- i said dynasty, handsome nothing registered. but you should tell us what's going on with this deal i think. >> okay. so here's the proposal they submitted last night. here's the proposal they voted on last sunday. they're incredibly similar. tax hikes. pension reform the ones last night slightly more lenient in what they're requesting however what is significant is the greek government agrees to the same fiscal targets when it comes to a primary budget surplus. how much more revenue do they generate over how much they're spending on government and by virtue of agreeing to the same numbers they'll have to impose deeper austerity than they originally wanted to because since the referendum was announced the economy has gotten clobbered. so you're going to have to do it

some way. that's what the big discussion is on greek media here today. will they be trusted? that's one of the key questions over the next couple of days. does anybody believe the greeks? i want to highlight to you one sentence that is both in the old proposal and in the new proposal. it says the greeks will quote, implemented in full the 2010 pension reform law. it's 2015. why would you need to implemented the 2010 pension reform law. they haven't done it yet. that's one of the complaints about the greeks is consistently the greek government two or three governments ago, they haven't been able to carrie through and implemented fully the reform process. the political process has already been done here. the prime minister has gotten to the office early. a lot of the party members have

gotten to the office early to begin discussing the proposal. the former finance minister is still a member of parliament. so he is going to be involved in all of these discussions. there could be excitement there because he always makes things interesting. creditors will review the proposal today. we expect to get a vote today as a show of good faiths by the greeks and the communityist party is going to hold a protest this evening. they don't want to be in the euro period. that is not surprising. we don't expect it to be large? i want to talk to you about this thing where he says that the greeks deserve a hair cut because my understanding is the rules of the new bailout program say if your debt isn't sustainable, you don't qualify. i almost wonder if he's saying it for reasons but i don't want to cut you off. go ahead steve. >> thanks michelle. that was part of a process that started yesterday with them kind of changing their position a

little bit. making positive comments about the possibility of changing the greek debt but first the political reaction has already begun here in europe. in france president hollande making positive comments about the greek points higher posel calling it serious and credible and kwuzing the words courageous where the germans have been neutral to maybe just a little bit positive. a german official this morning told cnbc these are the first steps in the prior actions demanded by the creditors. let's see how they continue. he said it was very important for the prior actions to take place as in the vote in greek parliament in order for the german parliament to accept these. we talked earlier today with the school of management and he talked about this tightrope. >> if finally merkel and the european -- let's say policy

makers will give in. this will also finally conclude that mr. tsipras will finally leave the stadium as the winner and this certainly is really complicated and is a big problem to digest for the normal people. >> what we have here guys is a german population that does not support additional support give backs to the greeks but at the same time, what you hear on the street here is they don't want the euro experiment to fail. they don't really want greece to leave the euro zone so what we have here is a proposal by the way where twice in what we see is they say they want to remain part of the currency union and by the way there's no mention in there of debt forgiveness. now this notion of what they could give them a write down of the debt is probably off the table t. two things that could happen, a lengthening of the maturity and or a lowering of the interest rate.

those might fall under the terms of a nonclassic write down that the germans could possibly stomach. joe. >> right, steve. that's what we were talking about. just exactly what is meant by air cut and semantics and everything else. steve, stay tuned. let's continue our discussion on the greek kai sis with someone who has seen this play out firsthand. he is the former president of the ecb that signed off on the greek bailouts in 2010 and 2011. great to see you. i love the backdrop. i was just there a couple of weeks ago and i guess my first question is you have seen it all over time and the way this latest -- can i call it a drama? we've called it a greek drama, the way we have seen this unfold and i don't know whether it's a term used in france but in terms of all of the posturing has this been about on par with what we have seen?

it seems like it's even been more convoluted for us to play out. has anything surprised you about how long it's taken and the different turns and twists? >> well first of all i would say that we have had over the last six months a succession of happenings of extraordinary games of chicken and it's about to terminate. very fortunately the deadline is now there and my understanding is we have to remain cautious but the new proposal made by the greek government are demonstrating to have an agreement. but clearly, clearly we have something which is very different from what was, you

know the position at the moment of the referendum. >> we have always said and cynics would say that both sides would take it to the very end to try to extract as much as they can for their respective sides and that may be the case and that it happens. but to view it cynically certainly we have gone through a lot of trauma to finally get at what people thought would happen all ahong but at this point the end result will be a positive outcome? >> no i was very prudent. the problem is the problem of trust. do the friends of greece that are the other europeans and also the international community will trust that the program would be implemented after all the

changes of positions we see in the past. what makes me listenreasonably confident but prudent is that the people of greece clearly demonstrated they didn't want to leave the euro. that they understood that they had to remain in europe. and that was clearly the results of the referendum because the no vote meant in the presentation of the government yes to europe yes to the euro but we want to have a negotiation that would be as much as possible but now they realize that to have the approval of the other democracies in europe and probably in the world they have to present a good plan. a plan which would be credible and we are at this stage. >> but do you really think mr. president that the no vote at the referendum was a yes vote to europe? do you think that the greek

people understood that. because this entire situation second based on trust and history doesn't provide a very good example for the greeks being able to follow through with promises to the ecb. >> no you're absolutely right. this is the real problem. is the government credible in it's new promises and new pressures? but in regards to the referendum i was very surprised because my first understanding of yes and no were yes to europe and to the euro and no to europe and to the euro but very very soon the government said no the no vote doesn't mean no to the euro. it means we want to negotiate as hardly as possible the program and the help of the european. but had he said no vote means no to the euro the no vote wouldn't

have triumphed. >> just a simple question. is greecing to to get debt relief? if so how much? >> first of all the main problem is the plan. is it a good plan? is it consolidating the solidity of the greek economy. the greek economy was about to grow at 2.5% this year according to the imf. now probably minus 3%. so the time that has been lost over the last six months is absolutely terrible in terms of growth. and now they need to reestablish a competitiveness. that's important. the debt outstanding is much less important than having a credible plan with good level of competitiveness as soon as possible. >> does that mean you --

>> i trust that taking account the -- >> i'm sorry, does that mean you'd be comfortable with giving them debt relief -- more than half of the outstanding debt if they agreed to the terms that you just discussed? >> no. certainly not and i don't think that you will find anywhere in europe governments and parliaments ready to do that. what can be done without in my opinion real principle of the debt diminishing but you could have a longer term for the repayment and you could have lower interest rates and that of course is what is important because what is important is the service of the debt. year after year. so it seems to me that they are way -- if there is a good plan if the plan is credible and if the plan is implemented there's probably ways to alleviate the service of the debt which is

what is obviously needed. >> mr. president, we compare the european union -- we have states here and we have some states that need a little bit of help. and we feel like a wrun i don't know. and watching this all play out and as an american just watching it we always come back to the notion that there's no real concerted fiscal authority over there and when germans still feel like germans and greeks still feel like greeks that the idea that you're willing to help as a union and give what needs to be given, it just doesn't seem -- it seems like more work needs to be done. will this make it easier to have better consolidation of fiscal authorities? because now portugal italy, spain, they all know it's going to be a tough one for them as

well. will this be positive and cohesive? >> well first of all, greece was more or less following the steps of ireland and portugal and spain in some respects and i said at the beginning of the year the imf was considering that greece was now back to growth and job creation with a growth of 2.5%. so the efforts that have been made the efforts made by the others through great difficulty and great pain which is normal when you start from a situation which is dramatically negative. minus 15% of the gdp of current account deficit minus 15% of the gdp of fiscal deficit. so greece had worked a lot and greece was about to grow so the

problem was the change of government and the maturing time for the government to realize what was the real world. what they really had to do if they want to succeed and succeed means growth and jobs and growth and jobs means confidence and of course capacity to inspire confidence not only in europe but also in washington because the international community is also a partner in this very dramatic case. it seems to me that it's history in the making. but until now if you consider what has been the resilience of europe, of the euro area of the currency itself in the worst crisis since world war ii one has to admit that the resilince had been quite remarkable. it is is perhaps likely that

greece will remain in the euro area and no country would have left the euro area over the last seven years after lehman brothers. not only that. the 15 countries so four new countries entering into the euro area. so it means something in terms of stress test of the euro area of the concept of the single currency. >> yes. >> it means also that we have a lot of hard work to do and i hope very much that we will do all the lessons from these experience and continue to do the hard work which is badly needed. >> mr. president, thank you. thank you very much for all your time. beautiful, beautiful day. we can see in paris today and once again thank you. beautiful shot. i'm kind of a -- >> i do love that your affinity

for paris. despite not liking the french. >> i love the french. >> how about the french philosophy. >> i have a little problem. >> you caused a fire storm after that interview. coming up another volatile trading session in china overnight. stocks closing up nearly 5%. a live report next. but first as we head to break here's a look back at this date in history. ♪ when you're not confident your company's data is secure the possibility of a breach can quickly become the only thing you think about. that's where at&t can help. at at&t we monitor our network traffic so we can see things others can't. mitigating risks across your business. leaving you free to focus on what matters most.

welcome back to squawk box. if you're just waking up this morning. here's how we stand in the markets. u.s. equity futures are farmer by a wide margin. the s&p would be up by 21. the dow up 164 points. the nasdaq would open by 46. the open could reverse or slightly weaken that trade depending on what news we get out of europe and how asia has traded. there are some data points in asia that we are watching. especially car sales for june. let's go to asia and our colleague adam who has those numbers. adam. >> you saw another very solid day for the chinese market. the authorities rolled out to

stem the decline in the broader equity markets that up until wednesday saw almost 4 trillion u.s. dollars wiped out today was another solid day but 1,300 companies are still suspended from trade. so interesting thing will be when they come back to trade for the markets. so obviously it amply identified the gains we saw in the chinese markets today, particularly for the big blue chips and there were only six counters down in negative territory. they might finally be playing ball with the european creditors. that helped in a wide range. however, yes we did get car sales showing the early signs of the stock market route beginning to effect the number two economy and next week is going to be a big test for these markets because we're getting q-2 gdp and fixed asset investment and retail sales. back to you in the u.s.

>> thank you. appreciate that report this morning. happy friday. coming up -- it's friday over there too, right? >> almost saturday. >> friday night. >> okay. -- confusing isn't it? >> yes. >> the toilet doesn't flush -- >> no. >> it doesn't. i can confirm. you can confirm. you've been to a wrasia. >> when it's winter here it's summer there. >> still unconfirmed. >> why ted cruz is upset with the new york times this morning. this is a great story. the paper keeping the presidential hopeful an author off it's best seller list. that story next. first as we head to break a look at yesterday's s&p 500 winners and losers. ♪

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♪ >> self-deprication is what it's all about. i would never switch seats and i did. i don't know why. what did you tweet out? >> you called us a millennial sandwich. >> you're putting it back on me. >> they made me sit here so that we could be -- >> we're said millennials.

is that safe to out you as not a millennial. >> no, because both of you also said that it's unclear what a millennial actually is. >> i think it's a state of mind. >> it's a state of mine. >> but even companies themselves can't agree. they'll put it from 1978 to 1985 or 1990 or something. >> they say generally it's people ages 18 to 35 because that's the mind set. >> l.l. cool j. says he thinks like a millennial. i'll go with that. i think like a millennial. >> therefore you are. >> which might be a stretch. i was going to really go off on this but now you sort of -- they have a way of making an excuse. they have a way of making an excuse. so ted cruz has got a biography and it has sold 11,854 copies in it's first week. it's called a time for truth. that is more than 18 of the 20 titles that appear on the new

york times best seller list for the weekending july 4th. in fact modern romance is number two on the list. it sold fewer than 10,000 copies and ted cruz sold 11,854. so they're not going to put cruz on the new york times best seller list and the person that was asked to explain why not said our goal is that the list reflects authentic best sellers so we look at and analyze not just numbers but patterns of sales for everybody. i was going to just say you know, the new york times usually at least tries to have the pretense of -- they don't even try that much anymore but let's say that they just assume people give them the benefit of the doubt sometimes that they're still like a journalistic newspaper. >> newspaper. >> that they're actually a newspaper organization. i don't think -- i think entire paper is an op ed page at this

point. what they choose to put on the front page. the way it's structured. >> they're not the only leading newspaper accused of that. >> it all looks like -- but in this case i was going to say they don even have the pretense. they aren't even massacre raiding as a news organization. kayla you say that they have revised. >> they have updated the story. it was wrong of the spokesperson to not provide more details up front about what constitutes a authentic best seller if that's your policy but the updated story said that the best seller list the count is basically just mass market sales. it doesn't include what they're calling strategic bulk orders. i don't know if that's books purchased by a campaign to give out at rallies or books purchased by the publishers to be used at universities for teaching purposes but there's all sort of bulk orders that books go through and i didn't know that the new york times

didn't count those. >> i wonder whether they have excluded hillary clinton or someone on their side of the aisle. i wonder if that would be excluded in the same way. >> i hope everybody is out there doing the work right now to see for every political memoir of some sort. >> but also conservatives have made it. it doesn't appear to be a blanket policy. >> they don't look at the irs scandal. >> yes they do. >> you can't lump all journalists -- >> yes i can. >> do you see the story this week. deandre jordan so it's free agent season in the nba and a situation where you have steve balmer with a guy in the room trying to keep him to stay at the clippers as opposed to going to the dallas mavericks and tweets were the way people were following this story. you had players on the clippers saying they were coming to texas

to try to keep deandre jordan to make this decision to keep him on the clippers and it worked and he took less money to stay on the team. so you can imagine for cuban and the mavericks they're upset about missing their chance to get this guy signed. >> you're up to speed on the lebron story. so he's there. cleveland now. >> i saw that. >> two years. $47 million. >> that's a lot of money. >> that's more than your last. >> that's a lot of money. >> do you have anything? or what is it? a -- >> one has an egg and one doesn't. i was going to talk about album releases but with we talked a lot about politico. >> and speaking of best sellers read the journal, they're talking about the new harper lee book. amazon saying the most preordered book on the website since the 2007 harry potter release of deathly hallows. >> my kids are excited about that too. >> is this me? no it's you kayla.

>> coming up a do or die weekend for greece as we have been talking about all morning. the future of the euro zone hanging in the balance. will creditors come to athens rescue again? a former imf official will join us on squawk box up next.

>> greece submitting it's proposal for economic reforms setting up a euro zone show down for sunday. penning a piece calling for the u.s. to intervene over greece. one of the global repercussions of the greek drama. let's speak with the former u.s. executive director at the imf and policy fellow at the wilson center. thank you for joining us. >> thank you for inviting me.

i want to begin with the comment our guest makes in the wall street journal today where he says this is the imf's fault for going lenient on greece a few years ago. they need to get a tougher spine to prevent this from happening with other countries again. is the imf part of the problem here? >> they were faced with very difficult challenge back in 2010 because greece was in a lot of trouble and they didn't have their own firewall established at that point so the imf membership came to the support of greece and in my board come mens and every review i insisted it was important that the europeans reaffirm their strong support for the euro zone partner which they did. of course greece is saddled with quite a bit of debt. as you have seen from the analysis released a week or so ago is insisting that the future

for greece has to include debt treatment to reduce the heavy burden on the economy and we've seen quite a few comments accepting that will be part of the discussion. he was indicating there could be discussion. he wasn't precommitting anything so it's been tough for the imf but they're looking to be part of the solution here and to help the greeks and the europeans find a way forward. >> when we hear talk out of germany that they're not going to accept hair cuts on greek debt should we view that as political posturing or do they mean it? >> they don't want a face value reduction but they're willing to to much longer grace periods and repayment periods which do have the effect of greatly reducing the burden on the greek economy to repay these debts.

ideally it would be better to have face value. reduction in the outstanding debt but i'm hoping there will be a signal to the greek people that the burden will be lighter for the next many years and the imf had to bailout a lot of countries and came under fire so adopted a harsher position as saying after 2003 kind of broke that position in 2010 with greece when it said a high risk of spill over. so they're going to exempt greece from this exceptional access rule. should it be written and should congress as they're conditioning whether they should reup with the imf should they make support

contingent on not breaking that exceptional access rule going forward? >> that would be wonderful if it were that straightforward to deal with the country but let me give you an example. back in the early 2000s brazil was in a bit of trouble and had high debt and many public commentators were saying that brazil needs to restructure. brazil was telling us was telling the imf no we're going to honor our debts and take the add justment measures and guess what brazil did that honored it's debts and did not restructure them. so it's difficult to say to a country we don't believe you that you're not going to pay your debts. but other countries, what's the magic number that's the cutoff point? that's very difficult to determine ahead of time because we have seen what countries have been willing to do. look at what the three baltic countries did in terms of economic adjustment because they were bound and determined to be able to move into the euro zone

so you can see what countries, if the political drive is there, what they can achieve. >> thank you for joining us with your thoughts this morning. appreciate it. former u.s. director of the imf. >> okay. not a millennial sandwich. this is a friend of mine. doesn't look like that. looks like take your daughters to work day. >> do you know there's now take your mom or take your dad to work day. i think that's lovely. i do that. i've brought the parents by the office. >> my daughter is 15. >> she's a millennial. i have been mistaken for being here grandfather. one time. the person had really thick glasses. anyway they were like bottles. coming up while greece remains front and center there's another potentially market moving headline, iran and those nuclear talks. that story and the implications for oil markets next. ♪ we do business by leading the way on tax cuts. we cut the rates on personal income taxes. we enacted the lowest corporate tax rate since 1968. we eliminated the income tax on manufacturers altogether.

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welcome back to "squawk box." negotiators hitting another road block on iran nuclear talks missing an already extended deadline to get a deal done. and john kerry saying while the u.s. is in no rush to get a deal done negotiations will not drag on indefinitely. >> president obama made it very clear to me last night you can't wait forever for the decision to be made. we know that. if the tough decisions don't get

made, we are absolutely prepared to call an end to this process. >> let's bring in greg pritty. greg, those comments come on the back of comments we got from the president this week saying the chances of a deal are now lower than 50/50. what sort of posturing is the secretary of state and the administration doing at this point? >> well i think what we saw earlier this week is the iranians trying to use the ninth of july deadline that extends the review period to 60 days as leverage against the u.s. we were essentially -- by extending friday through the 10th we were essentially saying this doesn't matter to us. they tried to back us up against that deadline. i think that secretary kerry was saying was we're not going to be pressured. there looks like there's been a lot of progress.

>> yet the administration and secretary of state says we're not going to negotiate forever. how long will this go on? >> we still think we're going to stay in vienna a few more days. the likely move is you'll see a deal within the next week or so. give the iranians some time to have a face-saving interval if you will after this. they were essentially trying to shoot for an end, this issue of the arms sales restrictions. that's not something the u.s. is going to concede and beat them on. so i think we're going to kind of give them time to climb down from that. we probably see something next week. but if we don't, that doesn't necessarily mean that the talks will definitively end. this could possibly drag on longer. >> so you think iran will climb down from the pressure that they have ratcheted up recently to lift the embargo. because now we have russia saying we'd lift it too.

that would seem to be putting more pressure on the u.s. to actually make a decision. >> well, russia and china both side with iran on this issue and would like to sell them arms. and so this is something we're -- you know i think the pessimistic way to look at this is iran is trying to win the blame game in something great powers side with them on. would like to sell them weapons. but we still think there's a better than -- this is not a slam dunk call. it's more of a 60/40 call. we still see the most likely outcome. we still think that both sides want a deal for their own reasons. and, you know we're just trying to get out of that deadline pressure they were trying to use against us. >> meanwhile people who have been following the oil market as a proxy for how these negotiations will turn out have been very frustrated this week. what tea leaves, if any, can we read with the fact that crude on both sides of the atlantic is firming up this morning? >> well as always we have multiple variables at work here.

yesterday the big story was the rally in chinese equities. you know that and greece at the beginning of the week i think the kind of bigger picture with the oil market is that last week it's been my view for quite a while that we've been primed for a correction. the rise in the ring count at the end of last week should be particularly concerning for bowles. it says we're at a price level that actually may be starting to stimulate a rebound in activity when you need u.s. production to come down. we probably are going to have a decline in u.s. output in the second half but we're still looking at an oversupplied market. >> we appreciate your time this morning. have a great weekend. >> thank you. you too. >> greg priddy. coming up this morning's top stories. can a last-minute deal in greece get done? we'll get you live reports. take a look at futures. dow's up 179 on the hopes. "squawk box" will be right back.

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market alert. stocks in china rallying for a second straight day. u.s. features sharply higher. we'll tell you what's moving markets straight ahead. hopes for a greek bailout rising. the government submitting a new reform for bailout proposal but will it be enough for eu creditors? live reports from athens and frankfurt ahead. oil prices aren't done falling yet. that's according to a new report from the international energy agency. we'll tell you what's putting pressure on crude and how long it will last. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪

live from the beating heart of business, new york city, this is "squawk box." >> welcome back. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. i'm joe kernen along with kelly ef evans and kayla tausche. the shanghai closed up 4.5%. european equities also rising. as you have heard by now if you were on twitter or watching us greece did submit a reform for bailout proposal. american equity futures are up now 181 points. closed up only 30 as so many days when the initial news seems positive and then you start hearing second guessing all through the session. we'll see what happens today. >> we've got a lot priced in now. >> and i've got the kick the can tie on.

>> they've risen since earlier in the morning though. so there seems to be a lot of hope at least into the futures market right now. for more on the events moving global markets, cnbc's reporters are spanning the globe this morning or this afternoon depending on where you are. michelle caruso-cabrera is on the ground in athens. steve leisman in frankfurt covering the german reaction to the proposal. and on the asian markets, adam is standing by in singapore. let's start with michelle in athens. >> the new proposal we've had time to go over it. it is extremely similar to the proposal that the greeks voted no to just last sunday. near capitulation when it comes to pensions. here's what's significant. they agreed to all the same fiscal targets. because of the capital controls and their strangling of the economy, they've lost so much revenue. they'll need to do more austerity measures whether it comes to budget cuts or tax increases just to meet the same

target than if they would have accepted this proposal a couple of weeks ago. today the prime minister is meeting with his party. he's going to address lawmakers later. a vote later today then we expect a protest tonight. we expect that to be quite small. they have never wanted to be a part of the eurozone. let's go to steve leisman in frankfurt. >> thanks. let me give you the commentary we're getting from around the continent. in italy, the prime minister says he's more optimistic than he was before. in ireland the prime minister says all the eurozone leaders want greece to stay in the euro eurozone eurozone. here in germany one of the democrats says this is a very important step towards. in france president hollande calls it serious and credible. officially the government is neutral on the proposal hasn't made a real comment yet. we got one comment that was

slightly positive. let's go to adam in singapore for what's happening in asian markets. adam? >> thanks very much steve. we saw very encouraging session for the asian markets on this led by the gangs we saw on the shanghai composite. another rally taking the rally up for the second straight day. emboldened by the arsenal of policy measures beijing released. and the rally was broad based. ended the day in negative territory. but there are many questions left unanswered as 1,300 companies are left untraded on the shenzhen and shanghai composite. we have securities news talking about some of the big insurance companies that had been deploying cash to buy up stocks in the stock market that had almost wiped out $4 trillion u.s. up until wednesday. they said to the tune of about

$18 billion has been bought in the equity markets helping to support the overall moves. however, the three-week selloff in chinese stocks has already begun to take a toll on the number two economy. that's right. we got data out today showing that autosales have dropped for the first time in more than two and a half years. down 3.4%. next week will be a litmus test because we have data coming out to give us a better clue as to the health of the world's number two economy. back to you in ste states. >> the chart june 12th to now is stunning to say the least. adam baktihar thank you. for more we're joined by kevin rudd. the president of the asia society institute. he's just back from a trip to asia. and you speak greek or just read greek? >> i speak chinese and i speak no greek. >> can you read a little greek? >> well you know little bit of

biblical greek maybe. but not a lot. >> then we should focus on china. but don't speak mandarin on us right now. >> i'll try not to. >> i don't know whether we're surprised by the extent to which the stock market is being manipulated by the chinese government. but i'm spriessurprised that when they succeed our market goes up and say yeah that's really good manipulation this time. don't let anyone sell. use the central bank to buy shares. of course we don't do -- the fed almost does that. maybe not. but should we be surprised that we're on board with manipulating markets. >> i think the question we've got to ask putting it into context is is it unprecedented for governments to intervene when you've got a large stock market volatility? i remember in the reagan administration it was done.

and a marvelous thing called the price stability mechanism. and then most recently hong kong in the late '90s after the asian financial crisis. this is not unique even with chinese characteristics. >> but is it less correlated therefore with the underlying chinese economy because it -- maybe it tells us nothing about what's happening with the chinese economy. on the way up or down. >> well it's the other point in terms of context here. said the chinese aren't unique in interventions. and remember it is a communist country which serves publicly and that it runs a one-party state which will intervene when it so chooses. but on your point of the real economy. i think that's the valid point for this whole explosion on the commentary about what this

actually means. the truth is it plays a relatively small role in the overall context of chinese financial markets in general and the economy more broadly. there's a debate about strength and sustainability about the growth that cannot sustain 7%. there's a big debate about all that. but frankly the direct connection between stock market volatility where you've got basically the ratios in china that get whacked, the market responding and responding too rapidly. invented the animal spirits as a notion. guess what. they don't stop in the west. they're in the east as well. and the government intervened. but the actual link with the real economy and real economic authority is thin. cannot be equated with the new york stock exchange in the overall robustness of the u.s. economy. >> one thing i don't understand though, if i'm the chinese leadership is why they decided to take this moment to take the

selloff which was inevitable instead of saying to people the market goes up the market goes down. that's how it works. they indicated it was panic when it was going down. that everything was going great when it was going up. so if you read every time people talk to the chinese on the ground they're understood this impression this is a market with this meaning. that's a problem for them. >> well the point i would say in response to that is stand back from it all, put it into historical context. this is an economy in transition. 35 years ago this was a socialist economy. state owned in its entirety. 35 years later it's a mixed economy, on a road to transition to something else. we don't quite know what. frankly financial markets are not mature. and i think as a result regulators are having their first burst of reality and what do you do with this sort of volatility. i'm not discounting the fact these are very significant interventions, but i think we need to put into a broader context the fact that this is an

economy and financial system frankly in transition from where it was to where it's going. >> it is in transition. it is evolving. there are all sorts of characteristics you can use to describe it. i think one of the worries, though, is in november the decision was made to link it more closely with the hong kong market as well. thus becoming the second largest. $6.7 billion in market cap. so hong kong for a long time was thought to have a more mature financial system. does this bring that market down a peg? >> if you're looking through the lens of the last three months last couple of months since june. we had a correction of 30% down. south depending on what the numbers were overnight. i haven't seen them yet. so if you frame that as the reality of losing 30% of values given that stock valuations are

up about 120%. you can say, well i bought equities in the shanghai composite in june last year. and i'm 80% better off. >> this is the leadership under xi its attitude towards ngos in the country. i mean its tightened consolidated power, they know they can't keep it forever. why not communicate that to people and tell them this message instead of suggesting there's something wrong when it goes down and something right when it goes up. >> i think there's two answers to that. one is what i was referring to before. this is an economy in transition. and regulating shall i say, large scale stock market volatility is not immediately in their tool kit. but learning on the way through. the second is taking the earlier point as well. what does it mean for the rest of the economy globally? again i think everyone needs to take a mogodon and calm down.

it's like a painkiller. half puts you to sleep. the imf just put out its projections. it brought it down from 3.5% to 3.2%. but in blanchard's statement, he makes no reference to the chinese stock market. says it's not relevant to the future projections of the real economy. in fact the revision down is because of a weak first quarter here in the united states. so i think let's put an end to a broader context. are the chinese on a learning curve? yes, but let's never forget we're dealing with a one-party state. sometimes here in the back of our head that this is just really a catalyst economy evolving into a democracy. it's not. it says it's not. that's why the state is going to intervene. >> bulls in china say the same thing. they say they control everything but they know how to do it. they know exactly what they're doing. in this history of the world, has a government -- a central government ever been able to

command and control an economy without something coming home to roost eventually? how are they smart enough to allocate capital instead of the market place itself? >> xi jingping's model is we can maintain in china which has strong central political control and allowed the market to dictate the resources efficiently. there is no precedent to that working. this is a unique experiment by the chinese leadership. so i think we've got to watch this step by step on this one in particular on the regulation of the market and its volatility. it's very much a learning process and economy in transition. but how this one turns out, i

don't know. if you look at what they actually said explicitly in their major reform document two years ago which was their reform goal and program for the next ten years, it says the market shall perform a decisive role in the economy. well, the chinese leadership has had had to confront right now where the rubber hit this road on that in the stock market. and they've chosen the cautious way through. but you're right to point out there is no historical precedent for this working. this is xi jingping's approach. will it work in the political economy in china over the next 20 years? i don't know. but i think those of us who just apply a 90 91 soviet playbook to this and just say it won't succeed underestimate the fact that the fact the chinese leadership is dealing with a relatively unique system. >> okay. have you had kangaroo meat?

>> no. i grew up on an australian farm. >> i hear it's tough and gamey. >> that's why i don't eat it yeah. i grew up on skippy. >> peanut better? >> no it was a -- >> yeah. so you didn't think -- i think they're cute. but they're mean if you mess with them. >> well i remember my brother coming home when i was a kid on the farm and had blood streaming down one arm and really had an encounter with one. >> they're karate experts. kick with both feet. i'm not kidding. >> six feet tall. >> they're body is a weapon. >> and they just go for you. don't mess with kangaroos. >> tastes like chicken. actually, it doesn't. tastes gamey. >> i'm going to hold off. >> all right. i've asked him and he's had it. >> i know him. >> it's not totally uncommon to do that right? >> yeah. >> you don't actually have a chain of kangaroo. >> no. i've i'd have problems with that. >> thank you. and thank you for answering the last couple of questions.

>> thank you so much. coming up china stocks continuing their rally overnight. hopes for greek bailout deal are rising. we'll tell you how the u.s. trading week is expected to finish. and a deadline passed for nuclear iran talks without a deal. now extra 30 days to review an agreement. what could mean for negotiations. plus a live report from brussels. "squawk box" will be right back. in the us, three in ten college students drop out. but how can you spot who's at risk? the one who lives far from campus? the one who works the night shift? the one with new responsibilities? one thing can't tell you, but the right combination can. universities are using ibm analytics to understand pressures in and out of the classroom- some expect to cut dropout rates by twenty-five percent. ibm analytics is working to make education smarter every day.

welcome back to "squawk box." among today's stocks to watch, gap. downgrading frome inging to neutral from buy. a drop in same store sales. united continental says the profit margin for the second quarter will be in the lower range of its earlier outlook. company is blaming the strong dollar saying it hurt demand from travelers abroad. and check out the shares of anheuser-busch inbev. a positive outlook pointing to the company's wide brand portfolio in its leading market position. also on our watch list today, oil prices. the international agency says prices likely to fall even further. pushed down by what it calls

massive oversupply. the iea suggesting this rebalancing is likely to last well into next year. and at 12:30 p.m. eastern today, janet yellen will speak in ohio about the u.s. economic outlook. investors watching closely for any hints about the fed's next move. let's get a check on markets this morning. scott nations joins us now from the cme in chicago. we're seeing futures very sharp in the right direction today into the green. do you think that lasts throughout the day? >> i do because largely where we might get news from whether it's china or greece is essentially going to be close for the week once we get to midday. looks like the s&p is going to move above the 200-day average. that number might not be as important as it usually is because we've had such a quiet period. but we've been paying attention

to that. 2075 is going to be the critical level. if we can get above that we'll break this high. but we have to get quite a bit above that. we will pay more attention to china than greece i think. people forget that the losses that the chinese stock market has sustained other the last 30 days are about 16 times the greek gdp. that's really the problem much more so than greece. >> that's perhaps the reason people are saying don't worry about friday. the real volatility could come on monday. they're closed for now. so there's not much to go on. what's the margin of error come sunday night? >> well the assumption is that the chinese stongts will be allowed to open next week. and a lot of stocks are closed and we don't know exactly what the leadership is going to do. chinese leadership and the chinese economy in general is a

bit of a man child. they have no idea of their strength. so they're really playing this by the seat of their pants. once we get to midday here we will start listening to janet yellen. she speaks from cleveland and is taking questions. one of those questions is going to be what do -- how do greece and china, what's going on there to factor into their calculus for a september or december rate increase. i now think september is never going to happen. december is probably 50/50 now. >> if traders thrive on volatility, traders getting into china the last couple sessions. what do you think happens next there? and is it dangerous? is it an opportunity? how are you viewing it? >> it's still up nearly 85% over the past 52 weeks. even though it's come off by

30%. there's something for everybody there. the problem is if you can't sell stocks, if the chinese government says we forbid you from selling stocks and you think you've bought a dip, how do you get out of that? so i think that the risk the transactional risk in china is staggering right now. i mean you would really have to be playing with a very small portion of your portfolio even as a big institutional investor if you wanted to wade into china. and how many industries have gone to china, tried to do work with chinese partners and felt taken advantage of? now they have the opportunity to feel the same way. >> i think that's as good a place to leave it as any. scott nations, our appreciations this morning. coming up new warnings on popular over the counter painkillers. details up next.

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wine every now and then. >> yes. >> and some kangaroo. coming up the latest on iran and the nuclear talks. iranian president saying the country is preparing for a post-sanctions era. the political expert joins us next from washington. as we head to break, take a look at u.s. equity futures right now. you total your brand new car. nobody's hurt,but there will still be pain. it comes when your insurance company

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♪ good morning. welcome back to "squawk box." u.s. army unveiling a budget reduction plan is that will cut nearly 60,000 soldiers and civilians and reduce the active duty army to 150,000. that will be the smallest size since world war ii. personnel management agency involves millions more people than estimated. more than 22 million people were affected. that's almost 7% of the u.s. population. the u.s. has identified china as a leading suspect in the hack.

china has denied involvement. fbi director james comey believes attacks were thwarted during the july 4th holiday. the red hot china auto market is now showing signs of stalling. phil lebeau joins us from chicago with that story. good morning. >> good morning, joe. these are troubling numbers if you look at china and say, look. you at least have north america and china if you're a major automaker. china may not be a growth story. new numbers coming out from the manufacturers association. this looks at those manufactured and sold in china. june sales down 2.3%. yes a decline. first drop in two years. now, the full year sales expected to come in about 22 million, but the sales growth estimate has been revised lower from up 7% to up just 3% for this year. a couple of things happening

here. first of all we're starting to see segments in china and as a result you've got some consumers there saying they cut it a little bit. maybe they'll cut it more. they're pulling back on whether or not to buy. you're also seeing sales limited by congestion restrictions in big cities. then you have this. the shanghai composite. look what happened in the last month. we've been talking about it on a number of other stories. but when you look at how much it's fallen in the last month, it has a lot of people saying how many of these people in china have a margin call that has come due and as a result they're not going to be buying a new vehicle. and for general motors this is particularly worrisome. last year they made $2.1 billion pretax in terms of income equity in china. if it slows down a bit, how much of an impact might that have? we spoke to mary barra a couple weeks ago. here's her outlook on gm. >> when you look at the china market there still is a significant opportunity. we've gone from double digit growth to single to mid digit.

we still see an opportunity. we're at a point right now where we're laurgeing new vehicles coming out shortly. i think that will be an opportunity. then when you look at what we have with chevrolet and more suvs coming when you look at cadillac. we're seeing real momentum there. i still think there's tremendous opportunity. we plan on executing to achieve it. >> i should point out i've talked with a number of people who specialize in the china market who are based in china about this. almost all of them say gm is not the biggest concern there. other automakers have far greater problems to worry about in china. bottom line is this. the market is slowing down and that is worrisome when you look at how much the automakers have depended on china as really being a profit driver over the last four years. >> yeah. phil, i think that's an understatement. we'll see how they open today. we appreciate you giving it to us this morning. talks to resume today after the most recent deadline in the

iran nuclear talks passed last night. they will have 60 days instead of 30 to review any agreement. kareem, were we making too much of this july 9th deadline? it seems like everything is a moving goal post in this negotiation. >> as you said it now gives congress 60 days oversight instead of 30 day oversight. but i think from the stand point of folks in washington, d.c. there's not a tremendous sense of urgency. you know as time passes it's not really changing lives in the united states that this deal isn't signed whereas in iran it's a country which continues to lose hundreds of billions of dollars because of the economic sanctions at a time when oil prices are very low and they're having to spend billions to sustain the regime of bashar al assad in syria. so i think people feel the status quo benefits washington more than it does tehran. >> earlier this week we got

comments from the president that the chances of reaching a deal is now lower than 50/50. the fact this is getting drawn out isn't changing the lives of americans, but what happens if the u.s. negotiating team comes back and doesn't get a deal? >> my sense is that it's not a question of whether talks will succeed or whether talks will fail. it's essentially a choice between success or continued deadlock. the sides have made substantial gains if you compare things to where we were two years ago. so i don't think they're going to tear up everything they've worked on and go back to status quo. but they may well say, listen we've been at it for two weeks. we failed to reach a deal. congress is already going to take 60 days to look at this. why don't with go back to our respective capitals and reconvene in the coming weeks? if they don't reach a deal in the next couple days, i think that's one possibility that they'll take a break and come

back at it. >> kareem if this is so much more dear to iran then why is the narrative that every time it gets a little tough that kerry is willing to move the goal posts in iran's favor? why is the perception that we're giving away the store in the united states if they need it so badly where we could negotiate tougher? i mean isn't there a chance that the president and kerry need this so badly or perceived to need it so badly for their legacy it overrides how much iran wants it? >> that certainly has been a perception or was a perception of secretary kerry that he's in search of a nobel peace prize. but i think to be fair to him, over the last week or so secretary kerry has shown they're not willing to acquiesce and continue to widen the goal

posts simply to get an abrupt deal signed. i think there's a growing sense that as much as they certainly would like this deal for the legacy of president obama and secretary kerry, that continuing to hold out is the prudent policy. at the end of the day, this is something that the entire iranian nation is waiting on the edge of its seat for this deal to be signed. and it wouldn't make that much of a difference in the lives of most americans. >> karim, what did you make of the argument in the journal yesterday that president obama is establishing the necessary conditions for military action after 2017 under a new president if iran doesn't comply? >> i would say first of all, obama's biggest priorities were to avert an iranian bomb and avert bombing iran. i think by january 2017 both those boxes will be checked. if a deal is signed which kind

of freezes iran's program in its tracks and subjects iran's program to more transparency, crowne you know, that's better than the alternative of iran moving forward. but there are never any perfect options. you're always weighing it against alternatives. >> but it is possible -- here's what i'm saying. you read that piece and the authors are effectively saying you know that the point of this agreement is just to establish the terms for maybe a military strike down the road. what do you make of that? >> i disagree with that. again, i think that if the alternative is iran continuing to put its foot on the gas and inching closer and closer towards nuclear weapons capability that likelihood is -- that would lead us to closer to military action than a deal which would freeze iran's

program in its tracks. >> handicap this for us just before we go. you believe that there will either be a deal reached in the next couple of days or not at all. if there is a deal, do you think it involves lifting the u.n. arms embargo. >> no i think the arms embargo and this is an issue within the p5+1 there is debate. but the u.s. and europe is opposed to that. i don't think that embargo can be lifted. but to handicap things it's really impossible. what we've always seen in the past is deadlines are missed negotiations continue. and i think on a macro level, those points probably will remain. >> or as reuters put it this week deadlines, red lines, bedtimes all being broken. we appreciate your time this morning. >> thank you. coming up a sign from the markets that a greek deal is close. well extending the drop this morning.

peter spiegel joins us next. stay with us.

greek prime minister alexis tsipras submitting a new bailout proposal. it will be voted on today.

the sunday deal deadline approaching for greece. peter spiegel is the financial times brussels bureau chief. he joins us from brussels with the latest. you've seen what's in this bailout proposal. is greece getting what it wants and will the creditors be satisfied? >> is greece getting what it wants? it is basically the entire proposal that was voted down in the referendum last weekend. basically regurgitated by the greek prime minister. it has a lot of people scratching their heads. why did he have the big no vote if what he submitted now is almost the identical thing? for a lot of the creditors is although this is the same plan they had proposed to weeks ago, the bailout is over. as angela merkel said this is a new program. we're not talking about a bailout trying to finish one

program. we're talking 70 billion euros in a new three-year program. so you have to go beyond what was on the table two weeks ago. i think what we'll see on saturday when all the finance ministers meet is probably approval to open talks. but whether we get a deal in the ensuing week before a big bond payment is due to the ecb on july 20th i think that's still a question mark. >> it said the difference this time is there's some indication greece will get a debt relief. germany saying it doesn't want hair cuts for example. maybe we're talking about maturity extensions. maybe we're talking about lower interest rates. what are you hearing that people think could happen to give greece the debt relief it needs to go home and say we did get a better deal? >> to be honest with you, it's become a kabuki dance. it's all symbolic. greek doesn't pay debt payments up until 2022. it's very symbolic. and the germans have said haircuts, you know face value haircuts on the eurozone loans

are against the eu treaty. that's never going to happen. what's been talked about since frankly 2012 because it was originally talked about back in november 2012 is as you say. extension of maturities. there's a couple of big payments due in 2022 2023. you smooth that out, push out the maturities for big your decade. 50, 60, 70 years. you put on hiatus any payments for five ten years. there is no debt reservicing for the next few years. you get an opening at some time at the end of this program so private debt holders want to come in and take the place of official loans. so i think to be honest with you this is going to be largely symbolic. it's not really going to affect the overall debt limit. that will be something tsipras can bring back to athens and claim victory. i think we've heard a lot of sort of rhetoric and a lot of song and dance on this for something that's only symbolic. we're not talking about a serious debt relief or restructuring here. >> joe, you're chuckling. >> no. i don't know.

one thing i didn't quite understand, it's costing more right? than last week. they're in a worst position. that's not helping either, is it? >> this is the other thing. the proposal that they've submitted has the primary budget surplus targets that were in the old plan. so 1% surplus this year 2% next year, 3% the year after. there's no way to hit those targets. one of the estimates i heard from a guy at the commission was they're already having 3% gdp shrinkage this year. what the institutions are likely to come back with is saying everything you're proposing here we had on the table two weeks ago but your economic situation is so much worse now, you have to do more to hit those surplus targets. now, can tsipras really now go back to athens and even go beyond what the greek people voted against? it's going to be hard politically. today we've had a lot of buzz.

the markets have reacted positively. the diplomats in town have reacted positively because it's a complete u-turn by tsipras. but we really haven't heard from the imf. we haven't heard from the germans. these are e the guys that "a," drive this debate and "b," have the final say. largely been the french the delegations that have been enthusiastic about a deal for any cost for literally, two or three weeks now. i think we have to wait to hear from e the imf and the germans before we can say it's good enough. i just don't think it is. >> a zero coupon century bond. >> right. >> didn't ibm issue that? >> it's basically what they're offering them. one of the proposals varoufakis made was a hundred year bond. >> i should be there. that is unbelievable. so -- or maybe it matures in the hereafter which might not be so good. and it's language now. so that would not be good.

>> someone pointed out to me -- someone pointed out to me that the british have paid off their last leased loan for the united states from the world war under tony blair. that's not beyond the realm of possibility. >> peter, we know it's a long weekend for you. thank you for joining us. peter spiegel, follow him on twitter, everybody. >> worried about a hundred year lease on your house. seems like forever. >> first time they borrowed a bond you're leveraging our children's future. >> wait until we hit the singularity though. >> singularity. >> you know what that is? >> of course. it's all the buzz. >> i love that. we're moving very quickly in terms of -- you're going to -- >> are we talking about that now? >> no. >> that'll be the tease. >> talk about it later. >> just wait until you hear what we're talking about. >> kayla and joe are going to the same place. >> different times, different

nights. but she's going with her friends. she's not taking her niece to taylor swift. you're just going for yourself. >> it was my choice yes. that is correct. but i'm going to another concert tomorrow night to cancel it out. rolling stones. excited for both and i'm happy to say it. >> you are covering the whole gamut. wow. big movers to close out the week in trading. we have your list of stocks to watch coming up next. and in the next hour john taylor out with an op-ed on the lesson greece's lender forget. stick around. "squawk box" will be right back. are you moving forward fast enough? everywhere you look, it strategy is now business strategy. and a partnership with hp can help you accelerate down a path

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xçó0 you are looking at a live picture of the world cup champion u.s. women's soccer team about to be honored in new york. team members will ride floats through a ticker tape parade. they'll be the first national team to be honored with a such a parade since 1984 and the first-ever women's team. workers put the finishing touches on floats last night in new jersey. the parade is expected to cost about $2 million. city officials have said that about $450,000 of that cost will be covered by private donations and corporate sponsors. among those nike and electronic arts. the city has taken to ponying up the remainder of the $2 million it will cost to put on the parade which is quite a grand

gesture. we were talking earlier this week about how there was such disparity about what the women's team had garnered in not only prize purses and also ad dollars for what ended up being the most watched soccer match in history. >> yes, it was. and i watched it by the end. but i didn't see germany. i didn't see the previous games. it's unfair i think, but i would liken it to the ladies final four. i like it. i watch the last game. >> better than the nba finals for the men. >> not better than the final four for the ncaa -- college hoops. >> no. maybe not college, but i think the nba. there was a chart yesterday comparing it to super bowl or different football thing. >> sponsors ought to be able to figure it out. >> also you would think after the ratings came out on sunday night you would realize how

immensely popular this team was and throw every dollar you had at it. >> maybe they think it's something that happens every four years. i don't know. don't get it. >> bravo for the city of new york for finding the money somewhere. >> don't look another me okay. i watched. >> i think they might be by the new york stock exchange later today. there's a couple of former soccer players. so keep an eye on this network for all of that. >> very proud in new jersey. >> carli. yeah big story. the story in "the wall street journal" this morning, espn has -- shows sporting events are rising. and others want to get into e the sports game. let's take a look at those. you can see up about 1.2%. disney has been on a tear guys. that's what makes this interesting. it was often said espn was the

juggernaut. now it's shown signs of slowing, disney is powering on. >> and also it was thought that espn would be the holdout, that they had all of the leverage against the cord cutting revolution that espn was still what people would pay for. and certainly it seems like their viewership is down. i think the journal said 7.2% in the last year. >> may be the case that ultimately they do in a different form. but people will pay to watch their shortports. >> do you have a prediction where olbermann goes? >> no. what do you think? you know better than we do? >> maybe he should go across the street. >> which across the street? >> to 30 rock? >> m.s. bring him back. >> interesting though. because in the journal article, espn was going to cut costs was future contract negotiations for talent. looking. >> he's tough though. he's a handful but brings in the

eyeballs. coming up on "squawk box," scott sperling. then julia boorstin's exclusive interview with commissioner adam silver. he's weighing on tech in the nba and skyrocketing team valuation. stay with us. ♪ i built my business with passion. but i keep it growing by making every dollar count. that's why i have the spark cash card from capital one. i earn unlimited 2% cash back on everything i buy for my studio. ♪

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deal or no deal for greece? athens submitting a new proposal before a do or die deadline. the cofounder of one of the oldest successful funds in america is here to break down the greek drama. tells u us where he's putting his money to work. scott sperling. plus china rising or falling? what happens if the world's biggest country keeps struggling? will it take the global economy down with it? a major debate straight ahead. then the nba embracing the cord-cutting millennial. an interview with the commissioner. time to tip off the final hour on "squawk box." ♪ live from the most powerful city in the world, new york, this is "squawk box."

welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc first in business worldwide. becky and andrew are off. they will be back on monday. we are less than 90 minutes away from the opening bell on wall street street. right now you can see futures are hanging in positive territory. we're slightly off for the highs of the market. s&p if it were to open right now would have an implied open up about 23 points. dow up about 175. the nasdaq up about 51 points. the volatile week we've had, we'll keep an eye on that. we're also keeping an eye on the markets in europe as we are waiting on some sort of decision on how this greek proposal will be handled. germany for its part up 2.5%. france up 3.25%. italy and portugal both up about 3% as well. kelly says there seems to be some optimism at this point in europe. >> yeah.

asia too. here are the stories investors will be talking about. greece sending a new package of reform proposals to its creditors asking for about $59 billion to cover its debts until 2018. meantime european leaders will meet this weekend and as mentioned china stocks rising by 5% overnight. the big drivers includes support measures announced this week. jim chanos warns more to come. as long as china adds credit faster than its growth the real story is months and years ahead. back here at home stock funds more than $14 billion poured in during the latest week. and it's been a volatile week for stocks. dominic chu joins us with more on the big ups and downs, where we are and where we are headed. >> i mean kayla just pointed it out. if we open up 175 point, we'll

be flat from where we closed last week on the dow. we're 180 down from last week. that's a percent to the downside. if you're an investor and didn't look at your statements your 401(k)s your brokerage accounts until now from last week you didn't miss much of anything. look at how much we've gone. we're going through our unofficial dow pedometer to track the steps. it started off okay. not so volatile early this week. by the time tuesday and wednesday came around we saw wild swings. remember that day we saw the dow drop 200 points only to close up to by a hundred that same day? huge swings. then of course we saw china concerns, greece concerns. the new york stock exchange halting trading. pretty much for three and a half hours on one day. and the dow down only to rise up again yesterday by 270 to get almost all of it back again. then if we get 175 points today,

we're pretty much again back to flat. the point of this is we have not lost that much ground. only about a percent since the end of last week. if you're an investor you take a look at those futures. if we close up -- if we open by about 180 points we'll have gotten exactly back to flat from what we closed last week. if you're an investor the week that's been yes it's newsworthy but hasn't affected statements that much. if you're a trader on wall street and make your livings on transactions, this may have been one of the better times to see some of that business going. so again, an interesting week so far. we'll see if these gains on the implied side actually fold in today's close. back over to you. >> it all depends i guess. thank you. let's get to our guest host and hear his take on the current situation in greece and how investors should play markets right now. scott sperling khl co-president and a board member of madison square garden. among others. thanks for coming in. >> you're very welcome.

>> we have guys that just buy and sell stocks and we ask them about these external events. and then there's from like yours which may be further moved from knee jerk reactions about uncertainty. the stock market sees china and our stock market sells off on china. you probably are even further moved from where it becomes less -- >> that's exactly right. we're trying to take a long-term view. we're trying as other people in our industry to identify a handful of interesting companies that we can buy, hopefully help build into something of greater value. and so we're not as directly affected by the swings that were just identified. but i would say, you know as we look more broadly, we all need to get used to this. there are going to be swings caused by geopolitical events because we're living in a world where geopolitical events are coming back to affect the financial markets. and i would say, you know what we need to do is put these things in context. so greece for example, people

talk about the importance and the impact it has on europe. and it does. but by itself as we know greece is not a significant sized economy and therefore the fundamental flow through may not be that great. there are issues on both sides. you know clearly a very important element to the germans and ecb is the fact you don't want to set a precedent that will then ripple through to perhaps much more significant economies, spain, italy, and perhaps some others. you know i think we're going to see daily ups and downs and swings. and i think just have to keep in context. >> what's particularly galling is people use it here to put in their analysis of when the first stupid quarter point rate hike comes. all this stuff, all they do is to look through the prism of losing the free money. when i look at you, you're probably one of those people because private equity firms --

>> okay. >> that's why you exist right now. that's why companies aren't -- >> we don't like free money. >> high valuations hurt you guys. >> the companies are getting it free. they don't have to invest. they can just play around with you. >> free money, very cheap money is good for big strategics right now who want to do acquisitions. and that's a positive thing for the market overall and even for people like us. but when you're trying to buy companies, the fact you have very low cost capital doesn't always lead to a fundamental purchase price that makes as much sense. >> but it's infuriating. there's an asteroid headed for planet earth. how will this affect the fed whether they raise in september or december? it's like there could be a horrific -- i don't know, god knows. some black swan. how's it going to affect the thinking of the fed?

pathetic. >> the fundamentals we're seeing is there's no inflation. the rate of growth is better in the u.s. than almost any place else. much better than any place in the rest of the world. but it's not great. i mean we're not growing 5%. >> do you attribute any of that to the fed? as a consequence? >> i don't think it's the fed and i don't think it's that much europe. europe a little bit in so far as may affect some of the export to certain economies. what i think it's attributable to is there's lots of things that have gone on in terms of government overlay that adds cost -- regulation. and parts of the economy that i bet is a hundred basis points of growth. when you add it up it's a significant burden. >> where do you think that cost is coming from for the companies in your portfolio that are the most -- >> so it's everything from the

direct cost of different forms of regulation that you could argue may or may not be central to what good regulation should be which is protect the economy and consumers from abuse. we've swung as you heard from lots and lots of people in the business world too far in a lot of different ways. but i also think it has other effects that tend to mute the economy somewhat. particularly in terms of the ability of the financial system to continue to fund not things that are abuses but things that are, you know reasonable growth from a risk perspective. >> so we're going to have john taylor on. you're going to be here for that. so they ask him what's the best way forward for greece. and he said and i'm quoting here. the best would be for them to change radically economic policy in a pro-growth direction. for example, this would include

making it easier to start up businesses ruling out tax increases, and gradually reducing the size of government interventions in the economy. i want to ask him if i can copy paste that and send it off to president obama. i mean is that not something that might take us out of 2% growth? >> well, it has worked in the past. let me put it that way. >> no look at the future? >> i'm just saying -- >> what a concept. >> i think that's worked in the past. >> what about let capital allocate itself in the private sector to where -- >> now, i will say we do see other -- there are other factors here that i think help growth but also make it harder in certain sectors of our economy, for example, on the employment side. so you're seeing massive productivity increases through the utilization of technology. we all know about that. but you're at the same time seeing massive changes through

the business plans and the business models of a lot of different industries that had been reasonably large employers and you're seeing a substitution of forms of business that are not as labor dependent. and that is something we're still going through and working through. i think net it's a positive for the economy. but it does put more emphasis on making sure that we train people for the jobs that are available and that we -- where we need people. there are lots of industries that can't find enough employees. and they can't find people who've been appropriately trained. >> when we come back from break, can you update us on this ebay situation? >> no. >> you can't -- you got the details with you? are you intimately involved with the firm and everything that goes on there? >> with our firm, yes. >> you are? okay good. >> i just can't tell you. >> yeah. i'm not surprised. all right. we might just bring it up. but you don't have to say anything. you can, you know -- >> how's greece? >> yeah.

you want to talk greece. just whisper to us. remember when connie chung said that? >> i'm sure that didn't work out well. >> it was on tv. >> we'll hit the hot topics and you can nod or shake your head. >> okay. which way? coming up as joe just mentioned, john taylor on why he says greece should never have received a bailout in the first place. and don't forget to keep squawking. we'll chat about the stories in a few minutes. remember to use #keepsquawking if you're on twitter. "squawk box" will be right back.

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after a lot of -- we heard it called -- i call it a kabuki dance. both sides calling the other's bluff, could be a big weekend for greece. maybe it works out for greece this time. here's a guest on "squawk box" earlier this morning. >> the people of greece clearly demonstrated they didn't want to leave the euro. they understood they had to

remain in europe because the no vote mept in the presentation of the government yes yes to europe. yes to the euro. but we want to have a negotiation that would be as tough as possible. >> and john taylor penning a new op-ed overnight saying greece is not the only one to blame for the country's economic distress suggesting greece's lenders have a thing or two to learn from grave mistakes they've made in the past. john taylor is an economics professor at stanford university and a senior fellow at the hoover institution. he joins us now. at the risk of the metaphor gets old, john but heroin addicts have drug dealers that enable them. i equate complaining about austerity to complaining about what happens with withdrawal.

yeah, it's tough. but to blame the withdrawal on causing the situation in the first place is ridiculous. but there were a lot of enablers. >> back in 2010 the imf, they had some pretty good procedures about not lending to countries with unsustainable debt. they did it anyway. the results have not been so great. it's why not go back and fix those procedures? that framework. so you prevent this bailout from happening again. >> this has been a pretty good case study in avoiding moral hazard. the ecb, the eu has held the line so it doesn't cause other countries in the same position. it doesn't cause them or give them hope they should do the same thing. do you admire the resolve of merkel and the troika?

>> well we'll see what happens with the new deal. it sounds like they're going to do some debt profiling. we'll see. i think the problem really goes back to the period earlier where they got into this. that's what i was writing about. back in 2010. then the bailout because of the private sector people holding that debt able to get out. >> so in terms of what helps greece from here on out, i read your quote about pro-growth policies. is there a way to to get greece and tsipras to see the light in terms of doing those things and maybe not quite as much of what we think of as classical aus ter the ty? can you do one without the other? >> absolutely. i think that's one of the lessons behind the scenes. the greek policy on sometimes people call it structural i

call it supply side has been very weak. they could get their act together. that's the only way to go now. the current government is not talking about that unfortunately. >> our current government isn't talking about it either, john. >> yeah. it's a problem generally. obviously greece is much more difficult situation. but i think there's a lot of countries sort of slip in. i think ours could do a little better. that's for sure. our growth has not been as great as it could be. it's a phenomenon which i think the more we talk about it the more we say let's get pro-growth policies here. let's think about how long it takes to start up a business in greece. things like that. >> regulation. unfortunately these are referred

to by our friend paul krugman as zombie ideas. the financial crisis of 2007 was a result of all the supply side economics of the previous 20 years, that's what i'm told. >> yeah. that's completely backwards. we had a good run in the '80s and '90s when policy started getting screwed up in more recent years we had some bad results. i don't see it that way. i say if we can get back globally but in particular some tough countries like greece we could do much better. actually, there's some good stories. you know you see some better results in poland india, mexico. they're following some better policies at least trying to. >> professor taylor what would you do about puerto rico? >> well puerto rico basically have to face up to this problem of the debt. i think there's got to be a workout. sounds like the debt holders are starting to get together and recognize that. i don't think there should be a bailout of puerto rico either. but it's basically a workout. i mean that's what happens when you get in these situations of

the private sector. >> i bring it up because many people bring up this half joking exchange between the finance minister and treasury secretary where they said i'll trade you puerto rico for greece. which problem would you rather have? >> well they're both problems. i think my sense is within that context, the imf make inging -- puerto rico's got a problem. but i think it can be contained if people are sensible about it. you've got to have this workout. you've got to have this reduction. and we didn't do that with the private sector back in 2010 in greece. and so the public sector is holding this and you've got this contentious debate between within europe. so i think we can handle this much better if we're sensible about it. >> professor, just the eurozone the euro experiment.

let's say we get, i don't know somehow we handle this greek situation. you're still left with germany, this export monster that benefits from where interest rates are and you've got the rest of the members that don't do quite as well in these multi speed economies with no fiscal coordination. isn't it just going to be one thing after another? one problem after another in the future? >> you know we always knew as economists that one size fits all is difficult for the whole area. that's why it's been so important to try to have more sensible fiscal policy. regulatory policy. i don't think economists argued for it enough. we should have done more of that. but they can get to that i think. i think that's what they're trying to do in the long haul. but i think it will work. again, you have to have other ways to deal with these problems than just monetary policy.

there's only one rate for the whole eurozone. >> professor how would you look at the totality of the eurozone? growth has been better but not great. and there arguably has not been the deleveraging going on in the financial system there that we've seen in our own financial system in the u.s. what do you think the implications of all of that is as we look forward? >> i think for europe right now, their overall policies are back. speaking of deleveraging dependence on the ecb is a still prob. we're trying to wean our dependency. slowly but surely. but they've got a long way to go. i don't think until we get back to like a more normal set of monetary policies that we'll be able to do that. it's harder for them because of this eurozone. it is a constraint. it is more difficult than the problems in the u.s. >> okay. we got to go.

do you think for germany, do you think that it's better for them to keep the euro low? that's what i couldn't figure out. is it better if greece leaves for germany or better if it stays? because it seems -- i don't know. i'm not sure whether the euro goes up or down after they get a deal with greece. is there somebody subliminally in their mind? >> politically i think they'd like to keep it together. it's something merkel has been in favor of. i think what's going to happen though, if this deal goes through, it'll be kind of pushing the can down the road again. and they'll be reprofiling. and the key here is if greece can somehow -- maybe it's just going to require a change in philosophy and greece can get back to sensible policies. we don't know that now. so i think it's probably going to be more as they say kicking the can down the road and not the fundamental reforms we're

going have to get there. >> right. okay. >> you wore the right tie. >> yeah. thank you, professor taylor. appreciate it. coming up bill clinton and george w. bush may not have such different political views. maybe they do. maybe like charnlging a lot of speeches. oh no. something else they agreed on. and what will teledrop in the chinese market mean for american companies doing business there? we'll discuss that in a bit.

coming up a shanghai bounceback. will it last? we'll talk about that next. as we take a break here check in on u.s. equity futures. the dow looks to open up 177.

welcome back to "squawk box." here's what's making headlines on this friday morning. investors will be listening closely to fed chair janet yellen's comments today. she'll be give -- also personal computer sales or what we always call pcs they continue to decline. gartner reporting shipments fell 9.5% in the second quarter compared to a year earlier. despite recent market volatility investors have

poured more than $14 billion into stock funds this week. that's the biggest weekly inflow since mid-december. of course it's slight sli backward looking, kelly, but still an indication of sentiment, nonetheless. >> finally signs of some money going into the market. eurozone leaders meeting today to discuss the proposal from greece. the question is whether greece will implement those measures which includes austerity, cuts. steve leisman joins us. >> that's really the key question, kelly. i want to talk about this german dilemma that's out there which is to deal or not to deal on the debt. on the one hand if they don't deal, greece leaves the eurozone. do other countries follow? on the other hand if they do deal, do other countries come forward and insist upon a renegotiation? we talked earlier today with york cramer. he said this deal put forward by

the greeks is a bad compromise for europe. >> a best compromise would strengthen the position of the reform opponents in other countries. think of the movement in spain where we have general elections later in the year. and i think this is very important. in the end it's a fight about how the eurozone should look like. >> so they see this in grand terms here. you do this and maybe the eurozone falls apart. or you don't do it and you send a bad signal to other countries. or there's the pressure from the u.s., the pressure from france and the imf all bearing down on germany to support debt extension and debt relief. it may be that's too much for angela merkel than she really wants to go up against. kayla? >> thank you so much steve leisman in frankfurt. we'll come back to you often on

that story. >> all throughout the day. turning attention to china now. stocks there bouncing back in the past two days after chrnz authorities took their most drastic moves to stop the leading. folks like jim chanos are as bearish as ever. he's warning more pain is to come. in his words, quote as long as china adds credit faster than its growth the real story is months and years ahead. joining us now with his reaction john rutledge and andy shia. welcome to you both. john, let me just begin with you. is this warning from jim chanos right? >> i think so. i've never seen a bubble pop halfway. and this was fueled by maher ginrgins. and they've thrown everything but the kitchen sink at this. i think this could go further.

it's not something for american investors to try to take a grab at. >> andy that's exactly what we've heard reports of people doing the last couple days. on cnbc we've had guests saying to us, look, we still like the fundamentals. we still think the uptrend is intact. what's your diagnosis of the situation there? >> well the market came down because it was not supported by the fundamentals. china's economy has been slowing down for several years. and we haven't seen the trend changing. so the market rose by 150% on the hope the economy were to come back. it hasn't happened. so i think that the key there, the fundamentals are not there. and the government wants to reverse the trend, the government has to do serious economic reforms. so we can see the light at the end of the tunnel. >> andy what kind of reforms are you talking about? if anything, this whole initiative was part of an effort

to open up the economy. now in part to support the market, they're even going back on margin lending and extending that again. what kind of reforms need to happen here? >> yeah. what's wrong is that to think of the market level is the policy goal. and instead of looking from the market level, the economic fundamentals. now, the problem in china is over-capacity. and insufficient consumption power of the household sector. so over-capacity means low profit margin. so the stock market is not going to do well. no matter how big the economy is. so all we need is to cut taxes dramatically. and limit investment. decrease capacity expansion. so that's the fundamental change we need. >> scott? >> i think you hit on one of the key things that we focus on which is the significant over-capacity across almost every industry in china.

yet the chinese government's done an amazing job at being able to manage the economy that is growing at rates that we haven't seen in this country since the turn of the last you know, 19th and 20th century. in our 19th to 20th century we had enormous booms and busts that were reasonably uncontrolled. the chinese government was a i believe -- able to mitigate the booms and busts. so do you think they'll be able to manage through this capacity the needed capacity reduction? or will the political pressures on job -- to create jobs and higher levels of income cause them not to be able to do that? >> john you want to take that first? >> yeah. i mean they're not -- capacity reduction is not their goal in their heads right now. it's political stanlt. and the reason they're doing this policy where they chuck every idea in the river and see if it floats is because they can't stand the consequences of

a crashing stock market. this is halting and slowing down reforms. the biggest reform of course is corruption. the biggest policy is trying to change the economy's balance towards services. and open it up to the outside world. so this is setting china back really some time. and i think as andy said the stock market should not be controlled from the top. it works best when it's controlled from the bottom. >> and andy what about that? and scott's point of over-capacity. how bad is it there? >> obviously china is very vast country. not accurate. i think we could see 20% to 30% of capacity is probably right. but the good news is the labor market is sound. because the labor force is declining, not growing. >> and income is growing. >> social crisis political crisis, it's just not there.

the issue is the government is too big. and the government lives on increasing investment. so this is really about reigning ing -- reining in the government. we need the lead toers make a determination that we need to cut down the government. and to expand the household sect perp china has great people because people are very productive. the income is low. it's not like other troubled countries like in the west where people have competitiveness problem. chinese people are very competitive. i think china's issue is really about reining in the government. >> andy xie, john rutledge thank you for your time today. morgan brennan told us yesterday a ton of cabbage in china is costlier than a ton of steel. >> wow.

who would have thought the fallout would extend to cabbage? >> right? up next we head to the allen and company conference where adam silver will talk about live streaming apps and how the league is cashing in on cord cutting. julia boorstin will bring us that exclusive interview next. "squawk box" will be right back.

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the dow looks to open higher by 185 points. the s&p 23. check out shares of american airlines. the company reporting stronger than expected june traffic. the most powerful people in the world, meanwhile, gathering in sun valley idaho, this week for the annual allen & company conference. julia boorstin is there. >> good morning to you. we caught up with nba commissioner adam silver in between meetings with both media and tech executives. he explained why sports commissioners are in such high demand here. >> we have enormous amount of popular content to distribute. so we're talking to the tech companies, wireless companies. they're figuring out how to differentiate their services from others. one of the ways is with sports content. >> when it comes to maintaining the value of that content, silver says he's not concerned about streaming apps meerkat or

periscope yet. he also said he's meeting with both twitter and facebook which the nba is partnering with. he says that social media has been hugely valuable for boosting the value of the profile of both individual teams and players around the world. >> big markets have lost their advantage a little bit mainly because of social media and the distribution of our content. if you're kevin durant and you're in oklahoma city he just signed last year one of the largest shoe deals in the history of sports. that's because his games are seen everywhere. his highlights are everywhere. it's great for the people of oklahoma city. but he has a global following. >> on the heels of lebron james agreeing to a $49.6 million contract with the cleveland cavaliers, silver is thrilled what that means for the nba. >> i was moved in watching him during the finals. in some ways with the one arm

tied behind his back because of injuries on his team. the fact he's continuing his contract in cleveland, it's one of the best story in all of sports. >> of all the panels here silver said his favorite one was the fashion panel with diane von furstenburg and sara blakely. not just because blakely recently acquired a stake in the atlanta hawks. he is fascinated by wearable technology and the powering of brands. >> i love that. we were talking about deandre jordan. but it has a lot of people talking about whether there need to be changes to the free agency period in nba. did you get him to weigh in at all on that? >> you know he really wasn't interested in talking about that particular skirmish especially all the buzz about it on twitter. he did make a point saying he's very excited about lebron.

>> yes. deflecting. thank you. we appreciate it. when we return we'll head down to the new york stock exchange and check in with jim cramer. find out what you need to be watching at the opening bell. plus the stories you're buzzing about this morning. this week's edition of keep squawking is next. send us your thoughts. you know how to reach us. we'll be right back. verizon say neversettle. t-mobile agrees.

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this morning we asked you to send us the stories that have you buzzing. now it's time to share some responses. let's start with what some might call the odd couple. two former presidents coming together to encourage the leaders of tomorrow. yesterday the first 60 scholars graduated from their program in which they studied presidential leadership and decision making. the presidents avoided campaign talk keeping things light. >> clinton and i are getting a little long in the tooth these days. >> this is the one month of the year when he's older than me. so speak for yourself.

>> this is an old story. they're known as -- they call themselves brothers from different mothers, right? >> who else can you possibly relate to if you've >> who else can you relate to if you've been president of the united states? >> right. but in terms of being different as individuals, this is another thing where you're covering a lot of humanity when you compare each to the other. >> are they rivals or are they teammates? >> right. and i wouldn't even try to list the personal qualities of which i think they're opposite of one another but there are, i think more than a few. wouldn't you think? >> it shows humanity is supposed to transcend our politics. >> wow. >> right joe? >> does it? i think that's a very optimistic note to leave that on. is this me too? oh it is. okay. a lot of our loyal fans on twitter have noted spending the morning with two millennial

friends. >> kathy fratto defines the generation as tolerant nonjudgmental, compassionate, collaborative and bad at spelling. why would you know how to spell when your electronic machines correct everything as you go? do you talk to people? >> i was thinking about this. i'm not sure if we are millennials. you own property. i'm married and neither of us live with our parents. >> but de facto, and which is even sicker. you guys have the same birthday? >> we do. it's coming up as well. becky's is the day before. but i think you're right. you said it best. millennials is a state of mind. i'm not one. >> i don't know. you're going to taylor swift with all the millennials. >> and i'm excited. >> i have a 15-year-old and a 13-year-old and a wife that love

it. >> are they going with you? >> of course. efb everybody is going. there's been a comedy routine where people try to deny that they love taylor swift. that's very common to do that and then the minute you get away from everyone that's what you're listening to in your air phones. >> you knew every word of the taylor swift song. >> yeah. >> only that one. >> let's get down to the new york stock exchange quickly. jim cramer save us. jim, what should our attention be focussed on right now? >> i think we should be focussed on jim stuart's article in the new york times. the chinese communist party runs the country and if they don't want margin calls, there won't be. if they criminalize selling of certain sortings they'll win. this is about keeping regime in power. this is not about an election. it was compelling and made me

feel better and i like the way the dollar is trading. the dollar has been going too strong. today it's much weaker. there's some things i like today. >> you said yesterday, early on. >> i said fake out because the dollar was going on. now we e have the dollar doing what i want it to do which is get weaker. you see the stocks underneath you. this is what's important. this time we haven't from merkel. earn wants to hear from merkel. i think the article, what he is saying is the bailout might work because the country is not a real country. it's a communist country. >> i message a few people yesterday. 690 billion on apple down from 784 on its way to 1.5 trillion. you're saying it's just a bump in the road, right? >> i think -- look i listen to

every word fillphil debo says. it's the iphone for me. the stock is down more than i think the iphone sales might be hurting china. 13 times earnings you can say that's why it's at 13 times earnings but i'm not going to bet against apple like so many people i know who have not only given up on it but are saying the watch is a big joke. i wear it. it's not a big joke when it gets more software. everybody is going to have to buy it because united health is going to tell you to wear it. >> there's a lot more coming up. >> loving your show this morning. >> all right. coming up guest host scott sterling tells us about his newest investment plays. intending a higher open. dow would be up about 202 points today.

>> and joe is singing us to break. "squawk on the street" will be right back. ♪ this is a great place to work. not because they have yoga meetings and a juice bar. because they're getting comcast business internet. comcast business offers convenient installation appointments that work around your schedule. and it takes- done. - about an hour. get reliable internet that's up to five times faster than dsl from the phone company. call 800-501-6000 to switch today. perks are nice. but the best thing you can give your business is comcast business. comcast business. built for business.

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>> this has been so good for everybody that we may get back together. >> we hope to get back together with scott at some point. $2 trillion in m&a? is it valuations using your stock currency? what is it? it's all of the above. cheap debt means large strategics are able to do largely accretive deals. i think there are lots of interesting places to be. if i look at the full range of things people can invest in i still think u.s. equities happens to be one of the most attractive long-term places to be. i'm not giving you financial advice but the rate of return over long periods there is very attractive and it's a very liquid market. we like a number of sectors that add to the trends i was talking about earlier, the productivity

so companies that help other companies do things more cost effectively. health care services is an interesting spot. our first investment. >> what about sports? >> content is incredibly important and will be monetized in lots of different ways. nba was able to cut a phenomenal deal with espn even though espn is under pressure itself. may or may not help the other side work. it just shows the power of owning content, sports being live content is very hard to replicate. >> what about owning a billion dollar enterprise unit out of e bay? >> you tell me. is that a good thing? >> i don't know. i'm not the one trying to buy it. we'll see. >> are you a rubio guy and not jeb? >> i like them both. i think they're both very capable individuals, and i think

the ability to provide the country with leadership that is again, somewhat centrist even though maybe on the conservative side of sen trystcentrist. i was a bill clinton supporter. i think he was good for the economy. >> that's what we care about, growing the economy. >> thanks, guys. have a good weekend. make sure you join us on monday. i'll give you a summary of the weekend. "squawk on the street" is next. >> good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." we're at the new york stoxck exchange. is it for real this time? futures are up. we've yet to hear from the germans or the imf.