tv Options Action CNBC July 10, 2015 5:30pm-6:01pm EDT
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cnbc's breaking progress on the crucial greek vote continues. you are looking at a live shot of greek prime minister alexis tsipras address the greek parliament as it prepares to vote on a bailout measure. hopes of a deal propelled the dow higher by over 200 points in today's session. a vote is expected to come within hours. cnbc's michelle caruso-cabrera, our chief international correspondent-s live in athens. >> alexis tsipras admitting he made mistakes in negotiations. also saying i realize i was not able to deliver on every promise i made during the election but we had no point. at one point the former finance minister yelled at him from a different party "you're lying" at one point. so it's been a little bit contentious. the vote has been delayed. it was supposed to happen around midnight athens time within the
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last half hour there was a procedural problem. it's supposed to happen in about 2 1/2 hours from now. joining us here on the balcony is demetrious lios, a lawyer who was here on the balcony with us last night. we wanted to bring him back. dimitri, you were so scared last night. you were so nervous about a grexit. do you feel any better tonight? >> yes, of course. the greek government came to its senses, and now i think we have a very good chance in the forthcoming weekend. >> he has admitted, alexis tsipras, to making mistakes during the negotiation process. i assume you agreed with him. >> a great mistake. >> the former finance minister was his great mistake. why do you think that is? >> because he ditched the negotiations. he did nothing about it. he just lectured. no numbers, no figures, no program, no nothing. >> you and your wife are
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lawyers. you hang a shingle. you run your own business. you say the phone hasn't rung for reeks. what is the economy? >> i think 8 out of 10 greeks are pretending they're work. nothing goes on. nothing. >> nothing. >> nothing. >> why has everything come to a halt? >> basically because of the bank holiday and due to the political development, you know. >> were you making about other contingency plans? so many greeks told me they were thinking about moving at some point if you ended up leaving the euro. you were upset you would lose the greek passport, the european passport. >> no, no, no. i think these are very dramatic measures. we have to keep calm. the sun will go out, you know, in the morning. greece will be greece. and the parthenon will be behind us. i think we have just to stay calm now, and we will sort
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things out. i have no contingency plans, no. >> thank you so much for joining us. >> thank you, michelle. >> dimitri laios. meltsa, we'll see how it goes over the weekend. wait to see exactly whether or not they can't any forbearance from creditors based on this proposal the greeks have submitted. >> markets aroujd the world will be watching. thank you, michelle. thank you for all your reporting this week. between greece and china it's been a wild week for stocks. but here's what's interesting. the dow basically flat on the week despite the fact it's traveled up or down by nearly 3,000 points. so why are stocks so resilient. let's find out right now. dan, what are your thoughts? >> we've been talking about it now. obviously european stocks have been deeply affected by the discussions going on with greece and obviously the china equity volatility there has kind of seeped into other risk assets around the world but i think a lot of money has found a home here or at least they feel pretty comfortable with what's going on here in the u.s. i think you have a little bit of a safe haven sort of situation. we have pretty reasonable valuations on large cap stocks for the most part and we don't have a lot of drama, let's just
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say. >> we don't. until maybe next week when earnings season starts. >> well, yeah. i think earnings season is certainly going to be interesting. looking at this week, something did stand out to me, though. greece isn't really a big factor when you think about it. with a gdp that's somewhere between oregon and louisiana, this wasn't really going to be material from an economic standpoint. china obviously a different thing. but one thing i would ask people to think about, go back to the last time we saw an equity market bubble and you knew you were running into trouble when as the stock market rose things became more volatile rather than less because that's actually the opposite of what you would usually expect. this week we saw a lot of volatility in equities, and i think what you're seeing is that investors are frankly nervous. and it could be greece. it could be china. it could be the fact that the new york stock exchange went down. it could be the fact they can't get on the airplane when they were taking a flight on united. whatever it is, there is anxiety in equity markets and you can see it in the price action. >> and anxiety in fixed income markets meaning the volatility there is unprecedented. in terms of what's going on in the bunds and of course our treasury market.
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in that way that reflects more fear than what's going on with volatility in the stock market. but net net we've had some meaningful deterioration in important sectors in the s&p over the last two, three weeks. we are down and individual names are dropping and gapping of late and it's not the best action. >> what are the sectors of most concern to you? >> well, the worst of course are these things clearly tied to chaina. you're making relative new lows in industrials, materials, energy k things that are highly cyclical, which do or don't reflect some hope that there's emerging growth around the world. and there isn't according to stocks like this. it's the freeports and caterpillars and bhps. not good. >> when we take a look at volatility and look fatherert out, whoo are traders pricing in? are they expecting more, a lot more to come? >> we saw implied volatility rise essentially across the board. we saw it in long-term options and we definitely saw it in the near-term ones. longer and not as much so but anxiety is definitely being
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priced higher now than its with a week ago. i think you can see good reason forz that. even the areas where you don't see weakness, perennial favorites like starbucks, for example, which is trading very close to or on its all-time highs, these are stocks trading at valuations they have wnt seen in years. 30 times earnings for a stock that's a great company, doing everything right but it's at its peak valuation? i don't know. >> i think what carter is speaking to is breadth in a way and we're seeing more and more concentration in disney and starbucks. and until apple just recently. and it we start to see the sort of move we had in apple this week that starbucks and some of these names that i think are particularly very crowded, facebook i'll throw in there there, we could see a lot of stuff start coming down fast. the names carter mentioned, the cart pilars, they were horrible -- >> fewer and fewer names. that's an end stage phenomenon. >> are you concerned about starbucks or disney?
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>> here's what happens and history bears this out. tough a general drawdown in equities there are two areas that do the worst. things that are very weak. out of 52-week weeks they plunge out the bottom. they say this isn't working. and the exact opposite things that extended like a nike yeeg, starbucks, people reach for those saying i've got to get my money out, capture the gains i had. those are a control mechanism for the whole market, the most extended and the sickest how they behave right here. >> that said, taking a look at boeing. >> boeing fit into this category in q1. it was up 20% on the year. still up 11% on the year. down about 9% from the all-time highs that it made back then. and it was a name that sentiment was rip-roaring through the roof here. what's happened in the last few months, i think we have a two-year chart here, we have this epic breakout in the beginning of the year. the stock went straight up. and since the february -- look at that right there. since that breakout it's been trending lower, lower highs and
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lower lows. you have a sip where it's tested that down trend. earnings coming up on july 22nd. they obviously have a lot of exposure outside the u.s. i think close to 45%. probably about 15% in china in particular. this is a perfectly fine company here, people but i think you have the potential for this thing to round trip back to unchanged on the year. if they disappoint on their forward guidance. and the trade that i was looking at today when the stock was 145, cough looked out to september expiration and bought the september 140-130 put spread for about $2. you're paying about $3.10 for one of the september 140 puts and selling one of the sep 130 puts at $1.10. your max risk is $2 between 138 and 140. so your break even is down seven bucks here. this is the sort of market we're in right now. bad news is getting punished. good news is not getting rewarded. >> you cite the pattern first. you know that type of pattern if you had 100, 200, 300 of those,
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100 years ago or many years hence, that breakout from a big range and the pullback to which the point you broke out usually you get resolved to the upside. >> looking at boeing this is not a situation where at earnings -- this is not something where you're looking at simmstore sales overt course of the last quarter. orders for airlines happen a long time in advance. as dan was pointing out, asia is the market for the aerospace industry. 5,000 new aircraft over the course of the next five years is what they're prongting. what people are going to be looking for out of earnings is reassurance that they don't think that anything has really changed and they're not going to start seeing their order book continue. essentially these aircraft are presold. i think a put spread is the right way to put it. this is a name i've been a big fan of for a long time. it's acting weak. the fact it's acting weak is there are a lot of investors suggesting that something is going on that you should be more concerned about. >> thing about weak is while it's been drifting down for four or five months the last two or
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three weeks it's been going up while the stock market's been going down. >> you like that. >> yeah. you're on the other side of dan's trade. >> i'm on the other said of the trade. it correlates quite highly with airbus. third this week bombard yooer collapsed through the bottom. >> carter thinks you should buy the 140-150 call spread in september. >> carter's trade. send us a tweet @optionsaction for everything options action. check out the website optionsaction.cnbc.com. videos throughout the week and exclusive trades. check it out. here's what's coming up next. >> all comes down to a few moments. this is one of them. >> that's what traders are saying about earnings. we'll tell you which sector looks most vulnerable for tumble. plus what did the departure of these two guys have to do with the future of cable? more than you think. and it has some traders downright scared. we'll tell you what's got them so nervous and how you can profit when "options action" returns. here at td ameritrade, they work hard.
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wow, that was random. random? no it's all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this.
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for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim? for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. expected to be up 14%. that would be the second best among the ten s&p 500 sectors. but it is not just big banks.
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big week for tech too. we're going to hear from intel on wednesday, google and ebay on thursday and last but not least industrial ge wrapping up the week with its results on friday. that's fun. and all the alliteration that i can muster. back to you. >> good job, brian. see you monday. brian sullivan. all right. so over the smartboard you're a little worried about tech. why is that, carter? >> was happening here is this has been an outperforming area of the market that's starting to underperform. this is a bit of an issue. i want to look at a couple of charts and then we'll put it all together if we can. we have an up trend here. this is the etf that covers s&p 500 technology as a sector and you see it's an absolute uptrend. the bottom panel is simply the sector's performance relative to the s&p. and it's also an up trend. but what we know here is that while we haven't violated our prior low on an absolute basis we have now violated it on a relativebase. net deterioration. some of which of course apple of late. that's usually the sign that something is starting to go
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wrong. a few absolute charts. this is two years. you can draw lines any way you want. one way of course would be this. take await lines put them back. if you draw it this way we have clearly broken out to the down side of this sort of ascending consolidation pattern. another way to draw the lines would be this. no lines, one way. another way. if we retrace half of this move we have another 3% to go. if we retrace half of the october may move another way to draw the lines. the trend line that's been in effect quite clearly over the last four years. and if we're going to get back to this trend line, this implies about a 4% decline from where we are now. so about 2 1/2, 3 to the mid-point, about 4 1/2 the trend line. we're thinking a drawdown of a bit more here. call it between 3% and 5%. >> even before the lines, mike, you were worried about tech. >> yeah.
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xlk as an instrument is kind of an interesting place to look because not just technology, there's a lot of other names that reside in there that have been performing very well for reasons that actually also might be beginning to deteriorate. not this week for sure but names like verizon, at&t, these mobile companies with big dividends have been a yield play. that could be a dangerous play to hang out. ibm, big constituents of the index. i'm not exactly sure what this company does anymore. i'm not sure as you pointed out that they do either. and appling which actually was i aname that i had thought would be a safe place to hang out in volatility has certainly proven not to be. >> apple is the big one here. it makes up 17% of this etf. know what you're trading. i think mike laid it out pretty well. at&t and verizon are 10% combined. this is a relatively pure play on big, big tech but it also has some kind of defensive stuff in it too. >> what's the trade here? >> i look out to september the 41-38 put spread.
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you can spend 75 cents which makes up 25% of the difference between the strikes. this is a good way to mitigate the decay that that put will give you. i think this is a good way even if you're just long a basket of these stocks to think about hedging it. i don't mind this as an outright bearish trade right here. >> do you like this trade? >> i do. it's it's a chicken little way to play apple. apple still up 10% on the year. and if you think about it, if apple was unchanged like a lot of the large cap tech we've seen this index would be down a lot more. it's actually a lot of performance or bad performance in the whole sector is being masked by apple and facebook. >> chicken little because you put the trade on apple in terms of -- >> apple is very range-bound here to me. i think we have a pretty well-defined range. however you want to draw the lines there, cart here. we've been talking about it here. i think a lot of money's going to continue to hide in apple for the time being because we know that they have $195 billion in cash and they will use it to buy back the stock. >> in fact the trades that dan has been recommending typically
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over the course of the last several weeks in apple have been working out for exactly that reason. the short strangle. i think those types of trades will continue to work well there. >> quickly on the charts because we're almost near correction territory. >> that's right. and apple is 4%, which would make this sector which is 19 1/2, if you take it out, the same size as health care and so forth. the burden of proof here is on the bull in the sense that it's the relative deterioration that is important. it is underperforming the market fairly consistently, quite the opposite of boeing. >> all right. coming up next, the nba commissioner with some surprising comments about the future of the cable bundle. we'll hear what he said in an exclusive report right after this break. plus carter and kuo made 50% in just two weeks betting on utilities. what did they see that made them so bullish? they will reveal when we come right back. stay tuned. here at td ameritrade, they work hard. wow, that was random. random? no it's all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or
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jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this.
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ahh... steve, other than making me move stuff, ces. what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place that lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim? for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. espn saying farewell to keith olbermann this week.
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this following the high-profile exit of bill simmons in may as disney sports network continues to deal with rising costs and cord cutting. cnbc's julia boorstin in sun valley, idaho where the future of sports is in focus. >> melissa, espn has long been the most viable asset in cable tv, the most expensive channel in the pay tv bundle by far, but according to nielsen espn has lost about 3 million subscribers in the past year as more people cut the cord or opt for lower priced pay tv packages. we spoke to nba commissioner adam silver who says they're hedging against the trend by selling games direct to consumers through the nba league pass by locking down contracts with the likes of disney. >> in terms of cord cutting i'm not all that concerned yet. it's something we're watching closely and obviously one of the reasons we just renewed long term with disney and time warner is to protect somewhat against that. hopefully from their standpoint there will be less cord cutting because as long as we insist on
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authenticated subscribers it's the only way our customers are going to get our premier product. >> silver tells us he's carefully watching yahoo!'s partnership with the nfl to live-stream one of its games. we'll have to see if whether all these new ways to access premium sports content such as on yahoo! is making the pay tv bundle less attractive. melissa, back over to you. >> julia boorstin, thanks so much. what does this tell but streaming wars? >> listen, we've been talking about it now for a while, that this was all going to be good for netflix. in the meantime it's raising awareness about their business model. it's obviously just shining a very positive light on it. that being said it's going to become messy. it already is very messy. it's going to become very competitive. and i think people who cult cords are going to start to say wait, i'm paying $10 here, $10 here, i was paying less over there. sxumtly i think netflix is going to bear the brunt of cancellations because it's not that compelling of a product other than a couple really -- maybe they're interesting for another couple years. original content. >> sow don't like where it's
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trading right now? >> i don't. i don't think you buy it here whatsoever. and i think there's a lot gf news in the stock and mr. icahn just left it, let's stick with him. >> the valuation of netflix is also one of the issues. it's priced essentially for perfection right here. the thing that also concerns me here is also disney. i ultimately believe espn has the content that people want to consume. how they're going to do it, how they're going to pay for it is the part in question. but while that remains in question that could spell a little concern for disney. >> what do you see for disney and/or netflix? >> netflix is the more aggressive trader where you're having these massive gaps as people try to con fend with what is this really worth, is this really a game changer, having already been a game changer, whereas disney is almost like a mechanical automated perpetual motion machine. it just literally ascends at a perfect 45 degree angle. the one in that sense that maz more risk i would say is netflix. in the sense that dynamic trading can all of a sudden reverse whereas disney it's a fairly low beta security, much more broadly owned in a way by a
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longer-term holder base. it's not likely to do any kind of thing dastardly to the down side where all bets are off, if something goes wrong with netflix it's bad news. >> very good use of the wo dastardly. coming up next collegein and carter lit it up. we'll tell you their next move. right after this. here at td ameritrade, they work hard. wow, that was random. random? no it's all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this.
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you need in one place that lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim? for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. time for the up side call. two weeks ago kuo and carter made a bullish bet on utilities. take a listen. >> what we play for is the countertrend move back. off the line. we take a shot here at xlu. >> what i'm looking to do is go out to september, buy the 42 calls, which is the first strike out of the money, and you can spend $1.05 for that. >> so utilities are more than 3% since then. carter, dot charts still look good? >> well, i think we've had some good eating here in a fairly low beta, unexciting kind of thing. after all, it's utilities and it's not just one utility, it's
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an aggregate, which aggregates move slower. i think you just take the money and walk away. >> these calls we bought which were the first strike out of the money, are now in the money by about a dollar. in fact when this thing was trading 43 1/2 and you had more than a double on your hands earlier this week i think the right thing to do here up 70% take the profits and run. >> let's get to a tweet here. jared is asking if you should buy into qualcomm via up side calls specifically. jan 65. what do you say? >> there's a push and pull here. we know the company's going to buy back a lot of stock, i think to the tune of $10 billion, 10% of the market cap here. i think defining your risk in a stock that acts so poorly in a space that acts so poorly makes sense. maybe looking out to jan in defining your risk. but the break even on those 65s is up about three bucks, 68. i don't see this thing over 70 anytime soon. >> time now for the final call. last word from the options pits. carter. >> we think that reducing exposure to heretofore great area of the market tech is the right thing to do. pull back a bit. >> and use the september 41-38 spread to do it. xlk. >> dan. >> i wouldn't even know how to
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use that in a sentence. i will tell you i think boeing's going to break to the down side and i think you look at september put spreads. >> looks like our time has expired. i'm melissa lee. thanks so much for watching. for more "options action" check out the website, 5:00 for "fast money," have a great weekend. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. my job is not to entertain but to educate and teach. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me at jim cramer. china better, europe hopeful, those four words define today's rally which seems to be a much firmer footing than the
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