m a mexican prison again from a tunnel under his cell. it's monday july 13th 2015. "squawk box" begins right now. >> announcer: live from new york where business anothernever sleeps this is "squawk box." good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick with joe kernin and andrew ross sorkin. and greek leaders came out to announce that they have reached a deal. >> after 17 hours of negotiations we have finally reached it. someone can say that we have an agreekment. >> the agreement will green light a three-year bailout for greece as long agency the greek parliament passes another round of austerity measures in the coming days. this is expected by wednesday. some questions as to how

difficult it will be to get that measure passed. but we do have the story covered. julia chatterley is in brussels. michelle caruso-cabrera is in athens. and steve liesman. we'll have more from the three of them. as higher up on the news. but it looks like a deal is going to be reached. you can see the dow jones up 125 points. s&p up close to 15 points. the nasdaq is up by 37. this is all coming as the markets in europe are higher. dags up 1.5% in germany. the cac is up 2%. the ftse higher. italy 1.5%. portugal up 2.75%. and the dollar is up. the euro despite the news it looks like the euro is kept together. trading higher at 1.1075.

part of the fact if you deep greek economies in that's going to add pressure over time. also you can see what's happening to the yields in the european markets. in greece be the five-year yielding 17%. if you look to the bund that's the german ten-year that's trading at .927%. if you check out what's happening with treasuries here in the united states you'll see at this point, the ten-year is yielding 2.45%. >> trending on twitter twitter #thisisacoup. >> some people love to see the world burn. this is austerity -- >> did you see what krugman wrote yesterday? >> who? >> krugman. >> i stopped reading. the iron lady 2.0, i found out i'm very german. german pride, just the way that

she's leading. she's iron lady 2.0. i love it. saying i've got to pay back the debts. there's no rule of law, no property rights it's like socialism spreading across the planet. >> i knew that would be yours -- >> stiglitz -- >> people are saying -- >> 1950. >> we're talking 50 years ago. >> the germans pointed out we stuck to the rules. we didn't change the rule every time we came along. this is five years. >> i'm amazed that bernie sanders just hates banks everywhere. as long as -- here's the banks that got bailed out. it's socialism for everybody. it's really weird. i now wonder if we're now finally running up that side. >> we're going to find out we'll get to the bottom of what happens but the question is whether they can keep the job and important the government --

>> what was the referendum about, all the tough talk? >> the referendum, had was able to say, look we're standing against this a week later he's taking a tougher stand. >> it probably got a risk deal after it was all said and done. and all along, said this is a big long kabuki dance. >> i heard the interview with a former irish deputy finance minister involved in all the talks, he pointed out, look the difference in ireland, we owned our problems we owned up to it. as a result, we came into the program after the greeks and things are improving. >> it doesn't matter if progressives see anything like this happen. they don't want to see anyone pay -- no one ever goes through -- i actually was quoting you last week. >> i saw on twitter. >> remember when you didn't buy any new furniture. if you don't expect anything from anyone -- >> when you don't have the

cash -- >> exactly. the meanies. the she's the meanest of the meanies. >> we're going to go to a place where a thought of people think about there's meanies going on. michelle caruso-cabrera has got the details this morning. does it happen michelle? >> rugtight now it looks good. if you have two take ways one is that grexit is off the table. and two is that alexis tsipras has capitulated with everything at this point. what's in the deal? he's going to have undo legislation that he put in place things like rehiring hundreds of thousands of government workers. he's going to have to re-enact reform laws and pension increases right away. a hammer that came down last night that he didn't expect. an independent fund is going to be established. they're going to slide $50

billion worth of greek assets as collateral to recap the banks. and he thought this until 5:00 in the morning, he wanted the imf out of the deal. the imf is included in the deal. did he get anything? yes, he did, he was told they would consider a reprofiling of his debt extending the maturities and lowering the interest rates but only after greek passes the first review. so that doesn't mean until -- let's think august. so what happens next? he's got to pass this legislation by wednesday. and, remember this only a deal to begin discussing a deal. what happens, if he meets all of the commitments, then angela merkel can go to her parliament and ask for permission to negotiate a deal. we're talking weeks here. today, we're waiting to see what the ecb does on the ela.

the emergency liquidity assistance. and alexis tsipras leaving just a few hours ago called this re session father recession father this deal. what he implied without it it could be depressionary guys. >> one of the questions following the deal is what is the ecb going to do and steve liesman joins us in berlin. >> andrew thanks very much. i'm going to get to the german reaction of this deal in just a second. i do want to talk about the ecb here. what we do know the ecb government accounts will meet today both through teleconference and in person. they will discuss the liquidity crisis here however we're not expecting them to increase it today. what the ecb needs is some confidence that these reform programs are in fact going to be

adopted in order to increase that ceiling for lending, it is eventually, though if this deal does happen expected to raise that limit. one analyst i talked to said it would be in the single digit billions. enough perhaps to raise the amount that greeks could get back to say, 60 euros to 200 euros a day. not very much needed for that. but a big significant move. the ela is like a discount window in the u.s. where banks have a liquidity problem but are judged to be solvent. that's the key, ecb has to seate the banks as being solvent. overall the greeks seeing it too harsh on greece. that's what you'd expect. the conservative side inside of merkel's own party saying they're skeptical about greek reforms. one member of parliament tweeted out greeks and reforms not two

words that go together. there was a snap poll only 12% of germans said girl mane is being who harsh on greece. i only bring that up because it very much mirrors the polls that we have here which shows 10% of the public supports additional assistance to greece. for an idea of what merkel dealt with this weekend, here's a copy of a conservative magazine here the title is not one more cent is what it says. when you look at the documents. the tough terms on greece look as it as a political document for merkel to use inside germany to get assistance from the german parliament. obviously, germany will take the bulk of that assistance. joe, andrew. >> what did that say, kernen not -- hold that up again -- oh it says --

>> it says no money for kernen. >> no money for kernen. no more money for kernen, yeah. >> remember steve, there are safe guards that were put in place to make sure that germany didn't make all of europe. do you remember that? i mean that was part of the idea with the eurozone wasn't it? safe guards and that's not going to happen. what happened? >> we know who's in charge. >> one of the criticisms here internally is that the german see berlin now very much at the center. they don't want to be there. the germans -- i spoke to a german official yesterday what's very deny not to be seen as germany being the one hoisting these tough reforms on the greeks. i think they failed at that public relations exercise. >> yeah, it's pretty clear.

i was thinking of "dallas." no one can give you power, bobby, jack ewing said that. no one can give you power. i quote jack ewing. you can see it happening here. merkelle, iron lady 2.0, right? >> i think that's right, joe. she's seen very much -- very solid here. and being very steadfast on this thing. remember, plan "a" and plan "b" over the weekend. plan "a" was create this privatization fund or plan "b," you're gone. a five-year grexit was out there. i don't think germany wanted greece to leave the eurozone. but she said very definitively we do not want greece to stay at any cost. >> let's go back to michelle. do we still have michelle? >> yeah. >> we saw suggesting the comments that germany didn't want greece in there at all.

that was always the plan and this was just -- >> the plan that didn't work. >> i would slice it a little finer. i would slice it a little finer. i think wolfgang schauble did not want greece to stay. the prime minister did want greece to stay. ultimately, she is the chancellor. if you weren't paying attention for the last 48 hours one of the big dramas in the last days was that there was this plan out there that greece could leave temporarily the euro for five years, get their act together and come back. everybody saw that as a big joke. that's like temporary divorce, right? that's just some way to put forward that makes it seem like it's not incumbent on the germans, it's incumbent on the greeks. it's also a way to get alexis tsipras to come to the middle saying look this is your choice.

the other choice is you're out of here as a result. by the way we think everything is going to pass with overwhelming support from the parliament. she's he's going to lose his party. we had one analyst say the looney left -- that's a big statement in greece -- the looney left will be pushed out with people who are more moderate. what is amazing about alexis tsipras, and even though he has lost tremendously over the european creditor system here he is a tremendous winner. he has amassed political power in a way that no other prime minister has done for the last five years. if there is anybody who can pass this legislation, it is him. he's gotten all the opposition to join him on this. if he's really willing to do it. even though all of these measures, though contrary in theory to what he believes in. so it's a pretty dramatic turn for him. if they actually -- actually do it. >> you know steve, let's just

talk about the passage in germany as well. this has to go through 19 different parliaments. i heard over the weekend that some of the m.p. in germany were unhappy with angela merkel. then you look at the greens there as well how difficult will this be to pass in germany's own parliament? >> well you know i think that's a great way to think about it, becky. think about tsipras what he can count as victories and then think about merkel. and she has said look we can adopt reforms that they've been unable to do for the last five years. remember, she won't even bring it to a parliament until greek adopts the reforms. that's one. two is the reform very big for the germans with privatization over a very long time. now there's this other privatization fund $50 billion fund which is in greece which

say victory for tsipras but overseen by european institutions. that's very important. i think the third thing which is very significant is in the writing. there will be no writedown in the debt. that was a big thing for merkel. she can come out and say we've got all of these things. remember, i think the germans wants greece to stay in the eurozone just without any cost or additional funding. i think she has to come forward, she gives a little bit and gets ace lot. one other on the schauble thing, i think she used the prime minister. >> we've seen that good cop/bad cop. michelle the looney left rising everywhere. i was thinking if greece had left i wish they would have left to get their own country kind of and they could all go and that would have worked

because greece is nice? get a couple of -- they've got their socialistic country give it another shot like cuba. give it another shot. that is not going to happen now, right? >> yeah i guess not. they've been held up. >> elizabeth warren can be president. bernie sanders can be vice president. send them over there. the banks can all be public banks, socialism. is that too late? >> so there was one very sarcastic tweet last night -- that's true. that's true. there was a very sarcastic tweet last night which i thought spot-on a fake quote from the leader of spain but alexis what about paramos, funny he chose fuel and feud over the left so -- >> just let's just give it another shot. we tried eight, nine ten times

but maybe this time it will work. >> that's what archie bunker said about california. >> right. actually, they have their own place already. thank you, governor mundi. >> you're channeling archie bunker. >> thanks, michelle. >> joining us now on set. peter brookta chief analyst. you're disappointed today that everything is not hitting the fan, i guess. can i give it to you -- here's your silver lining. here's your silver lining. it's no excuse now for yellen not to raise in september. they would have used you know, the chaos in greece a frozen grexit to push them back. you want the rates, can't you look at that positively? >> the second most important thing today is the ten-year yield approaching 2.5% again and that's being lost. >> because of that.

so you think september now, that will be a relief for you? >> i still hold up my hand, i don't know what the fed's going to do. they're looking for this perfect needle to thread it's just not there. there will never be a right time to raise interest rates. i think it's truly embarrassing over seven years of recovery the rate is at zero. so they've got to mop this up. and we're 60 basis point higher than a few months ago. >> does that mean they're going to have to raise rates more quickly before they start and not do this on slow and measured? >> no they'll be slow and measured but that's on the short end. on the long end, it's not so slow and measured. >> if was not just cnbc cable but if it was hbo cable you'd use that -- >> no question i would. >> so you would use the actual words?

so that's code. >> you wrote a piece last week that actually made me laugh out loud. you were going through the deals with greece and tsipras. in the end, who the hell knows what this guy is going to do. >> the same with yellen. she's had so many opportunities it's excuse after excuse after excuse. but now -- >> and it's -- yellen -- >> but the bond market again is tightening for them. so right now we're seeing a rise in rates. whether it's going to the short end driven by the fed or the long end driven by the market. >> do you think -- i was saying that our marpgtkets will do this. the markets sort of have -- what was going to happen here anyway? it wasn't going to be that big of a deal in the u.s. anyway. you've got to connect a lot of dots to get the word to hurt our economy more than it's already

hurt. what do you think of eventually us being stuck at 2% because of all of this other stuff? you see the premium increases for obamacare. >> yep. >> even slate. problem with obamacare. >> slate? >> problem with obamacare. can we grow faster than 2% ever? >> not right now, especially with productivity growth being less than 1%. rents going up 3.5% on cpi. there's a reason why consumer spending can't get any traction and it's obviously a huge chunk of the u.s. economy. >> at this point, you're not sure, but you think finally we're going to normalize it at least a little bit. but normal with no growth is not going to be that highway. >> exactly. even if the fed does not raise in september, if they don't raise in september, long rates will continue to be higher.

if the fed wants to get control of the curve again they should raise rates. if they want to take time the lock end of the curve is going to do it. either way, they're in a slow rising environment. it have been slow and methodical. >> i thought yellen on friday speaking didn't mention greece at all and only mentioned china in passing. >> evans -- didn't he say it's off the table for -- in his -- >> just keep rates just a little bit longer growth all of a sudden is going to accelerate. >> right. >> a little bit longer. >> all right. so you didn't want it to go that way? >> no i feel -- >> the way you said it though the way you said it, though it looked like no i didn't but -- okay. >> greek economy --

>> it would have been much worse. and to distinguish austerity, cutting back on the public sector is considered partial austerity. that should be reality because the public sector can't afford the private sector anymore. ba do you do? you got to cut back the public sector. when we come back this morning, we'll be taking a look at oil prices. they've been dropping as we wait to see what happened with the iran nuclear deals. we'll have the details next. first, though here's a look back at this date in history.

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welcome back. we're following the iran talks. reports say a deal is on the table very close now. expected to end sanctions. like more raining oil on to the markets. once a deal is agreed upon. with the six world powers taking part in the talks, the u.s. congress would have 60 days to review that. we're back now with oil, 52. if it happens a lot more oil

will probably come on the market. but at the same time we were talking on the break, with more demand, we need to pick up that stock. >> what opec is expected, they're calling for are what they expect a more balanced market, maybe a more hopeful situation for them. but they expect more demand. >> this is the came kookukakabuki. they learned the came kabuki distance. is there any question that kerry is not going to go ahead with the deal? >> no, it's the question of how bad of a deal this is. best case scenario i think you're looking at ten years down the road. best case scenario, ten years down the road where we have a legitimized nuclear system if iran and every organization is going to want that same thing. >> and also the people in iran they want this so badly because it matters so much for the economy. so they'll do almost anything for it. which makes we wonder why aren't we --

>> at the same time, championing in the streets. >> that doesn't do much for us. i don't know why we want it so badly. >> just to get points on the board -- >> but the bar is so low to win a peace prize anyway is it worth anything to win anything with arafat? >> with that this administration wanted to get points on the board. >> well, that's good for them. >> look they've been cheating the whole way through. the iranians -- the germans, apparently they've been trying to buy additional equipment for their centrifuge which is illegal at this point. no one is saying anything about that. if you're cheating on the deal i don't know how you sign it. >> you know -- you know what changed my life this weekend? apple music. >> apple music. >> are you now -- >> i am. >> you're not a spotify person. you didn't even know what that was. >> still don't.

>> still don't. >> i know what apple music is. it should be illegal. it's too good to be true. >> this is the thing though for you and i -- >> the different reasons, andrew andrew andrew. i get the first three months free. and the family plan is $14.99. all of my kids. i looked up anything i wanted to listen to. >> yes. >> i'm getting a little teared. and i listened to it. i'm in my r.e.m. phase. the reason we contemplated listening to apple music is the radio thing. you have done that yet? if i press it once i like it a little. if i press the artist twice, i love it. >> whole trick on apple is supposedly, the next song that you don't know is coming is actually like the right song? >>s it's amazing.

>> let's talk on break. i signed up and i really needed to consult with you. >> you went ahead without me? >> i did. >> thank you, sir. >> this is the craziest story. thick as rick. you know what we're talking about -- >> mexico? >> escaped again. amazing. >> isn't that amazing? >> it is. it's "shawshank redemption," come on. without the redemption part. >> without saying anything about mexico, who knows how things work down there. an international manhunt is under way for the head of a powerful mexican drug cartel joaquin guzeman escaped from -- he's got a better name. escaped from his prison cell. got a cool nickname. the notorious kingpin known as "el chapo" escaped last year.

he escaped another time. mexican authorities were cracking down hard promising he'd never escape from a maximum security prison but on saturday night he escaped on a daring highly sophisticated scheme involving a mile-long tunnel underneath the prison wall. >> under a shower though. >> this is not just a mile-long item. this was a tunnel that was ventilated and -- >> and had a motorcycle waiting for him. >> who wrote that i'd imagine not just his buddies on the outside but buddies on the inside. >> running through all of this. shower was the only place where they didn't have surveillance cameras. he went into the showers and escaped from there. >> he actually escaped from his house last time when they were trying to get him because he had a series of tunnels underneath. we tried to extradite him and now there's a whole big fight officer this.

>> why now -- he's the one -- leave that alone completely. >> why no cameras in the showers? if i'm in prison that's the one place i'd want them to be watching that nothing happens, right? i mean no cameras in the showers, seriously? why? for privacy? >> privacy and escape purposes. whatever they're doing in there, we don't care about. >> i think he had a private shower. >> oh he did? >> a very private shower. >> who knows what's going on. we're going to talk apple music. during the break meantime a live report from brussels about greece expanded with reform for a deal. first going into the break, here's what the italian prime minister had to say about this morning's news. >> if we save greece my real challenge, our real challenge today is to save europe and the business economy.

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>> reporter: welcome back to "squawk box." i'm in brussels where 22-hour marathon talks came to an agreement. with the bail joust $95 billion and also an agreement to keep greece in the eurozone which was the ultimate truth but it comes to conditionality. greece has a deadline of wednesday evening to do a major reform of pensions and v.a.t. and other conditionality a $60 billion fund is going to be set up a privatization fund for

collateral to make sure that greece toes the line. the talks from hours and hours of talks that trust in greece is incredibly low. i spoke to the italian prime minister leaving in the early hours this morning. overall, what was the assessment of the meeting, listen in. >> it's basically that we have to if we save greece our real challenge is to save europe and the business economy. >> reporter: so not just about trusting greece, about trusting the whole euro done project. so now, the finance is the talks. getting cash flowing into the banks. there are still crucial talks here in brussels. back to you. >> we've been watching the euro if you check it out right now, you will see that the dollar is actually higher than the euro as much of the morning, you can see 1.1078. joining us on set to talk more about this is alan ruskin he's

the global head of the strategy at deutsche bank. why is the euro trading lower than the dollar on this news? >> yeah it's interesting. it's about interest rate spreads again. the market says okay we're putting behind greece we're starting to look the ainterest rates, divergence against. the old theme is coming back again. that should favor the dollar longer term. >> if you look at the longer term, the euro keeping all of its players intact is why europe benefit society greatly from this over the years? >> yes, but the logic is the other way around. there are a few other things that the market is thinking about. you're thinking about using the euro as a funding project. thing thinking of this as high interest rate currency. >> you said sometimes in the

market you're an ostrich. what does that mean? >> sometime you get swung around like a daisy. and sometimes, you can actually stick your head in the ground and retend that nothing is happening, you're an ostrich. you actually want to straddle between the two and be alert with the changing currency at this point. >> what should we make of the dollar strength over the last year and given back those gains in the recent months? >> yeah i think we can build on the gains but much slower going. >> gains for the dollar? >> yeah that's gains for the dollar. what we saw over the nine-month period we saw the euro dollar fall from 1.45 to 1.35. that was an incredible move. and it will take another two or three years. much slower going. >> forget about parity we are talking about the dollar moving well beyond parity? >> that's right.

yes. of course we need the fed to play the game really in a way. because the story of really pretty much earlier this year is all about the ecb, a little bit about greece. now, it needs to be about the federal reserve. >> alan thanks for joining us. when we return what does apple have to do with the greek crisis. how is apple helping citizens dealing with other close controls. first, as we head to the break, check out the european markets at this hour. we do have some green on the board. "squawk box" returns in just a moment. ♪

xçó0 welcome back to "squawk box" this morning, making headlines, apple, yep, they're going to do

their part for the greeks. see this. tim cook is offering to extend ipad service and storage plans for an extra 30 days without any extra costs. so apple participating if the greek bailout. everybody needs to pitch in a little bit. there's one nice thing they can do. there's no way to play your -- they don't have a problem paying cash with apple. >> you can get the cloud and apple music free for three months anyway. >> oh that's right. i forgot about that. >> don't you have to put your credit card in? >> no. >> you have to put your credit card in. >> no they have that on file already. i can't -- i couldn't remember if it was -- >> almost. >> almost. >> i didn't remember to capitalize -- >> the "j"?

>> the "j" and the "k." let's continue our discussion about greece the global markets reacting to this overnight deal between greece and eurozone leaders. it ain't over yet. joining us the senior economist at jeffries. handicap what's going to happen in greece the next couple of days and whether the deal will be the deal that gets passed but the people there? >> i think it will be a deal that gets past. that the going to be the realization in the next couple of weeks. the banks closed and i think that's a sign to try to get a sensitive deal signed. and he's bringing back back on the parliament that's is on that parliament to pass the legislation. after that entering into the unknown, exactly what happens to banks. those are some of the big questions going forward. but i think in the eurozone in

the last couple days the census in the parliament it will pass. >> i want you to go the longer term and i want you to go outside of greece for a second. because there's an argument to be made that if greece stayed it would actually encourage other countries like spain and italy to look around and say, you know what we got a lousy deal over here. we should be fighting back or doing something on our own. is this deal harsh enough so that if you're living in spain or italy that that argument stops? >> with don't really know the details of italy. we don't know so much of some of the details. exactly, but i think there is that kind of argument that greece need people and european governments, some european governments felt like they needed to make an example of greece to send a signal to portugal, to spain, to italy, to some of these countries that face some of the same problems saying well this is what you have to do to stay in the eurozone. you get the same sort of calls from our economies.

and the other question on this is france as well. it's interesting in the discussion over the course of the last week or so there's been a massive split between ma germany is pushing and what france is pushing. obviously, germany much more focused that greece has to reform well. it could lead to the eurozone -- angela merkel didn't have much problem with greece leave but then pushing for the euros to stay in. then you have to come back to domestic policies. you have general elections in a couple years. and this sort of ends this euro party, you know in a way, snuffing out its direction in the polls. i think it's very important for

hole holelaned to draw that. >> i appreciate your perspective perspective. thanks so much. when we return, we will talk more about a grexit being avoided for now. but the crisis is far from over. we'll talk about a man preparing for the worst. "squawk box" will be back. but i keep it growing by making every dollar count. that's why i have the spark cash card from capital one. i earn unlimited 2% cash back on everything i buy for my studio. ♪ and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business... that's huge for my bottom line. what's in your wallet?

welcome back to "squawk box." one of the biggest worries if it had happened or still an outside chance, could the drachma be reintroduced? how does the country change currencies seem leg overnight went process formerly can take years. the ceo of the 4 x settlement service cls, the only u till knit the marketplace backed by the federal reserves. she settle $5 million in currency transactions every day. thanks for joining us david. at this point, people that have wanteded a grexit predicting one, say this deal is far from done. # a grexit, predicting one, say this deal is far from done. most say the grexit is off the table. we booked you last week. let's say it was still on the table. would you have -- normally takes years to do it it could have been done in a week couldn't it if there was absolutely no money left in the banks, you

would need drachma immediately. >> i think it would be a tremendous challenge, joe. you asked me the question last week i think i would have answered it exactly the same way and that is it will take time. >> how long? what's the -- >> we couldn't predict what it would take if it was at all possible to have greece come into the cls network, but simply to print currency is a big undertaking for a country, as was highlighted, i think we would have seen the issuance of ious that would have taken the place of currency at least until the printing presses could be rolling again. >> do you print an iou? >> you print an iou, that's the first thing you can do but that would, again, take quite some time. the currency control -- the implication of imposition of currency controls as the first move was a sign that they were getting very very close to giving this some consideration. >> did have you anything to do with iraq when it first kur rehn sive introduce there had? how long ago there was? >> we did not. cls does not get involved

with -- did not get involved -- >> i remember john taylor i think talked about how difficult that was after the, you know, stock and all that >> john taylor spearheaded that move to try to get money into iraq using the vehicle of the u.s. treasury but our system does not deal with cash but instead deals with the actual settlement of the currency. the issuance of cash is done by local sovereign governments. >> well how often would someone need do you a currency introduction? >> we hope more and more often. there's 17 currencies in the c almost s network today we hope to add the hungarian foran this year. we have been on a very long-term project of working with china in the hopes of helping with their financial liberalization program. he would like to have the rmb, the offshore or the onshore rmb be part of the cls network some time over the next several years. >> crazy. um -- >> yeah. >> the -- the euro or the yuan

becomes the go-to currency after the dollar someday. what's your bet on that? >> i think it's a long time before the yuan actually becomes --. the euro is -- does the your roque cyst five years from now? >> i think the euro has to excyst. i think we all forget the critical nature of the political importance of keeping the euro together, as important as the -- >> fiscal coordination will come before the euro goes away? >> i certainly believe that. >> on that side of things? seen a huge rise in the political difficulties though just over the last five years or so in keeping that together. how do you get from here to there? >> well i think this was the major test and i think germany did an extraordinary job of facilitating, negotiating this deal that has come to pass today. i think i would also want to add it seems the world is remarkably complacent about the number of things happening today you think about last week the fact that every major market indices was either flat or up with exception of asia, we understood

what is going on in asia, you have got commodity prices reaching new lows rates in the u.s. rising currency volatility is extremely level volumes going through our system are up relative to last year, but at a very, very modest level. >> that because we are whistling past the graveyard? >> i think there's an element of that markets are very very good at predicting events, not always great at predicting the contagion that could come. you asked a group of participants, if i asked andrew in the summer of 2008 what would the odds of lehman brothers going bankrupt? >> i would have never believed you? >> i would have said it was at least possible but would you never have predicted a -- >> andrew's a little slow this morning. do you want know ask your question of him? >> no well -- what would be my questions? when is bitcoin gonna be the -- >> oh. i mean if the euro is not going to be the next reserve currency and the yuan not the ex-reserve what is going to -- >> e-currencies? >> i don't think it's going to be bitcoin. i would bet against bitcoin

today. i think the technology underpins bit coin. the distributed ledger technology, the block chain technology being implemented today that is helping digital currencies will most likely play a big role in markets going forward but bitcoin will not be the -- yfrnl not bitcoin? >> not the least reason is that -- >> distributed what? >> distributed ledger technologies? >> okay. i'm going to a cocktail party. block chain and distributed ledger technology. both offer scaleability as well as granularity? >> you have already got it down joe. already got it down. >> anything do with the cloud? >> it is very simple technology. it is open-source technology. >> probably dictates this ledger stuff. anyway, i think -- >> run out of time. >> i'm done. >> i got a call. >> stay here for a second. when we return our top story of

the morning, the last-minute deal to save greece. we have live reports from europe. plus, our newsmaker of the hour former treasury secretary, larry summers, going to join us sound off on the agreement and the future of the eurozone. stay tuned. "squawk" returns. and experience a cadillac for yourself. ♪ the 2015 cadillac srx. lease this from around $339 per month, or purchase with 0% apr financing. verizon say neversettle. t-mobile agrees. deal to save greece. never settle for verizon's overpriced gimmicks. try the un-carrier risk-free for 14 days

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after a marathon negotiating session, news on a greek bailout breaking finally early this morning. >> we have finally reached it. someone can say that we have an agreekment. >> but not quite a done deal yet. live report from brussels athens and berlin straight ahead. >> with us to weigh in on the greek deal former treasury secretary, larry summers. plus rebecca patterson and mark

grant on the market response. >> and negotiators reportedly close to an agreement to curb iran's nuclear program. going to talk to former governor u.n. ambassador bill richardson. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ imagine me and you, i do i think about you ♪ >> live from the beating heart of business new york city. this is "squawk box." ♪ so happy together ♪ >> you don't know the -- welcome back. you? "squawk box" here on cnbc. >> was that the turtles? >> good. >> along with becky quick. >> we hang together. >> andrew ross sorkin. >> a millennial sandwich. you heard about that right? >> i heard about it on twitter, no less. people writing in millennial sandwich looks like take your daughters to work day. they felt that was funny.

people are not funny. i don't like twitter. breakinger think morning negotiators reaching a deal for a third bailout of greece that would keep the struggling country in the european union. european equities right now are nicely higher after a great day also on friday. it was an interesting week that you missed guys last week. it sort of never -- the worst-case scenario was always possible it hung in there the minute there was any glimmer, if you were long it was, like really nice. not back to 18,000 yet. i mess and you, did you know what that message was, very cryptic to you. >> which one? >> 690 b. >> accident understand that i thought that was -- >> 690 b. apple's market cap as of wednesday. >> yeah. >> well under 7. down from 784. on the inexorable rise to a trillion stopping off down in the 6s. >> all you sent him was -- >> 690 b. didn't ask. >> cement me something else

earlier. >> i sent something else which i think was -- >> what was that we were debating by e-mail? >> howard schultz, coffee prices plummeting trying to pay out his profits and adding income inequality as the shareholders make more. starbuck also a new high, still raising prices all of his good which could shoe work. >> he has you blocked. >> you blocked me? >> i have not blocked you. >> you blocked me? >> i have not blocked u. >> don't you block me. i get the e-mails. doesn't matter where you are, you have to deal with these things. >> and i wrote back. >> not on the 690 b. >> i thought it was like a typo. >> i thought you would know immediately, remember not like exxon, can't go down. >> this is true. i'm still there going to buy myself an apple watch. cnbc's reporters, we should tell you, stationed around europe. julia chartly covering the negotiation teams in brussels. steve liesman covering the german reaction in berlin and michelle caruso-cabrera covering

greek action in athens. we will start with julia. good morning. >> good morning, andrew. 22 hours of marathon talks here in brussels produce an agree tomorrow keep greece in the eurozone. moments this weekend it looked pretty dicy and future talks on the third bailout to the tuned of 95 billion. but it is a big but, it comes with tough conditionality, we are take wag more measures than the greek people rejected just over a week ago a number of those measures have to be passed through parliament in greece by wednesday. the real focus is on what greece does over the coming days. but there also are critical details arkds 60 billion privatization fund greek assets sold off, a huge chunk of money to recapitalize the banks, another chunk to be used for growth. i can tell this privatization fund in existence since 2011 you know how much they have raised, less than $5 billion. huge question marks over the success of that never mind

anything else. but i can tell you today the finance ministers are going to meet in just over a couple hours' time. they are going to be trying to flesh out the financing, the short-term cash that the banks desperately need and the economy desperately needs to continue. so it's about that and other eurozone ministers and those governments voting, too, the likes of fin land germany. germany pivotal to the structure of this agreement. let's go to steve liesman to see how the deal was taken by the germans. steve, good morning. >> good morning. and thanks, yes, this is a country very skeptical about additional aid to greece there is no political party that's going to come to power on the heels of supporting additional aid to greece. what we are hearing this morning so far in berlin is guarded but positive reaction to this greek deal. the german foreign minister saying the greeks must rebuild trust. that's refrain we have heard time and again from the germans. the spd leader onnerman he is

a member of the coalition, a leader in parliament saying that if the greek parliament passes these reforms, then the german parliament will as well. as for the european central bank, unlikely to hikt lending-- hike the lending limit. the key is whether or not greece passes these reforms. go to michelle in athens who can tell us. >> the next couple of days theoretically, the building behind merck the parliament you see there. there is great relief among the business community here in greece that grexit has been avoided for now. next on alexis tsipras has to come back and a race on to pass legislation, according to what was put out by the euro group today, he has got to do it by july 15th that's wednesday, doing the pension reform raising taxes, all kinds of things that he has said he didn't want to do and of course they are under pressure because

they really want the banks to be able to reopen sooner rather than later, which steve highlighted. let me show what you one of the newspaper also over the weekend. this photo got a lot of -- of courts wind picked all lot of commentary over the weekend this is alexis tsipras during the negotiations, even his harshest critics upon seeing the photo, had some degree of sympathy and empathy for him because he looked so exhausted and beat down. i mean consider that he has capitulated on nearly everything during this process and comes back to put through legislation he said he would never have to do empathy and sympathy being greek words. back to you guys. >> michelle here is the part i don't get. you said all these sympathizers with him. he is doing exactly what he said he wasn't going to do why do you think the next two days he is going to maintain the support that he's had thus far? >> so one, he is still just enormously popular.

two, he got all of the opposition parties to back him even before he went into the negotiations saying give me the right to negotiate, what i come back with you have got to be supportive of. he secured that in advance. that has given him tremendous political power. the third thing i would say is that there is nobody left in this country to tell the greeks you can get a better deal. there's no one left. and finally, they have seen somebody go to the mat, i mean to the bitter end, to nearly bring them into the abyss, and they did not get a better deal. this is it theoretically. so, maybe that's why they can actually get something done. >> that rev rehn dmum a perverse wake the referendum silenced all of the people that were even left of tsipras. once he was able to do that everyone went along with him on that that sort of consolidated his power and even silenced the

people that absolutely were not going to do anything in terms of austerity. they all signed on with him after that because it was almost -- almost a plebicite on him, not just what to do >> he showed tremendous command of the population considering that before he made a huge speech on friday night going into the polls, the polls were against him and keep in mind 90% of the media here was pushing for a grow on tv all day long, on every channel, yes, yes, yes you should vote yes, ma'am the people overwhelmingly voted. no he had tremendous power over them. he is the one guy who could go back to the people and say we got to do this. amazing. >> this is rebecca patterson. one thing that has come up a lot over the weekend this morning, is the possibility that you could have a new government. now, what you're swag his popularity and the support of opposition makes me think that is not a high risk. from where you sit what you're

hearing in athens do you think there is a risk you could get a new government, a snap election in the coming months? >> so the snap election has been discounted, but you're right, you're referring to the fact he is probably going to lose his parliamentary majority very particular to europe even if he gets all the backing of the opposition parties. he is going to have members of his cabinet right now who have voted no who don't support this. so, he has got to shake up that cabinet and he has got to figure out some other kind of coalition. how he is going to do that remains in question. but it is considered to be achievable at this point. but there are going to be yes, changes within the government. so far, no election calls yet. it is a possibility, but it would be after they get through this important step of passing all this legislation by the 15th and then another round by the 22nd. >> michelle you know how incredible it can to unleash private sector growth and what do we hope for in terms -- let's

say -- i really want to pull for greece now. i'm ready to go over there now, such a beautiful place, i don't know how you screw it up in the first place, it is such a great place to visit. so the tourism trade gets back on track. what do we got to do small business, people being able to open up do some labor reform to allow business to be i don't know more nimble or something? what can we do to hope for them? what kind of reform? >> yes. yes. yes. the bar is so so low. the oecd actually did this huge thick report where they went through all this legislation and said just do these 100 things things that could be incredibly basic to allow competition into so many -- like there are so many closed professions here say okay, the number of drivers who can drive a black car, it's limited at charge. . and that's it right? and so there respect that many and they are incredibly expensive. there can only be so many

pharmacist. that's it there can only be so many accountants. that's it. why? why not let the market decide all of those things over and again? those are things that greece has promised to do in the past but hasn't. i could go on and on. >> michelle for some of these reforms though, we know that the plan hasn't worked because first of all, some of the taxes have been incredibly high. second of all the greeks have not done any of these reforms that were put out there i know that the 15th is one deadline. the 22nd is another for passing a lot of these things but will it be years before they have to put some of these reforms in place or are these reforms that have to go into effect immediately? >> so it's gonna be step-by-step biy step the pension system and tax increases, 6% here, 9% here 13% on this, 23% on that on and on streamline it clean it up those things to be done immediately. the transformative things that

we are talking about to improve the labor market for example, they will get more time on that the way it looks, there are reviews and you don't get the next disbursement of money until you pass each review and if they are going to be able to pay people, 'cause they are running a primary budget deficit at this point, they are going to have to pass reviews. >> michelle we had -- i can't remember where it was, i think it was the ukraine, american she went over there to run their financial stuff. >> it was the finance minister. >> yeah. yeah. do they know -- this do these greeks in government michelle caruso-cabrera have they read "you know i'm right"? you should be that euclid guy, we know what he is capable of. why not stay over there and tell them some of that stuff. is that a possibility? have you been approached? >> the last time i interviewed alexis tsipras, his minister of state, nick co-s papas said we will turn knew a leftist yet.

oh, good. doubt it. >> you can't work on them. that's what i was afraid of. >> yeah. >> i think that would work. you know exactly what needs to be done. we got to leave it there. michelle we got to thank you. go around the win, the win this morning the horn. steve and julia as well rebecca patterson is our guest host. more from her still to come this morning. up next negotiators close to securing a nuclear deal with iran. bill richardson is going to join us next. he's former governor former ambassador to the u.n. and former energy secretary. then we have the market impact of the agreekment. mark grant's going to tell us what to watch. and larry summers joining us. he said the greek soap opera it ain't over yet. be back in a moment. the mercedes-benz summer event is here. now get the unmistakable thrill... and the incredible rush of the mercedes-benz you've always wanted. but you better get here fast... yay, daddy's here! here you go, honey. thank you. ...because a good thing like this

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we are watching oil prices this morning n the last hour opec out with the report. oil demand will increase next year, it says. the supply of shale oil from north america and other regions seen growing more slowly. the praise of oil moved well off the lows of the session after that report came out. it had been down more than 2% on news that negotiations in vienna were closing in on a nuclear deal that would end sanctions on iran. more on the iran talks, we are joined now by bill richardson, the former governor of new mexico, energy secretary and u.s. ambassador to the united nations. good morning to you.

>> morning. >> you look at these negotiations, if they actually close a deal do we actually look at it as a positive? to put a fine point on it the supreme lead leader over the weekend said the u.s. is an excellent example of arrogance and told university students in tehran to be prepared to continue the struggle against arrogant powers. so we are going to be making a dell with that. deal with that. >> i'm still concerned about a potential deal, although the nuclear side you want to curb iran's nuclear ambitions, restrict it. but a new element that came up in your newscast concerns me. and that is when you take off the arms embargo on iran imposed by the u.n. security council which says you cannot export any arms or sell any arms this would mean that from oil revenue,revenue that the sanctions relief could bring, iran could sell

conventional weapons, ballistic missiles. the question i have, this is something that was introduced in a new fashion by the iranians about ten days ago. does this mean iran will art rebels in yemen, hezbollah, hamas? side with syria doing that? there are some positive elms in the agreement, but you know i want to see something on iran's behavior. i want to see something on that american marine that american journalist, american intelligence official that are unjustly imprisoned. so we will see. it looks like there will be a deal. >> if you're senator can ryinenator cannery, you look at this. how will people view this? >> a far-reaching legacy if it is a good agreement.look at this.

how will people view this? >> a far-reaching legacy if it is a good agreement. this moves them to more responsible behavior in the region with yemen, syria, israel stops threatening israel, it joins a community of nations, then you have got a more manageable moderate situation in the middle east. >> but do you believe any of that is really possible? >> well i'm dubious. i'm very dubious. i had wanted these negotiations to include iran's behavior. on the nuclear side that's good. you know curb their ambition. possibly terminate the ambitions. inspections. sanctions relief that extends way after, way after they comply with inspections and destroying or curbing or exporting their nuclear enrichment. you have got to see what the details are. i support negotiating with bad regimes, but i want to see a good deal rather than any deal. >> bill you touched on iran's

behavior around the rest of the middle east. and that is something that has certainly gotten us in hot water with all of our allies in the region to this point. they were furious that this deal was done especially that they didn't get any heads up on this beforehand. i wonder no matter what you get in this deal will it make up for what we have lost in terms of our relationship with our long-term partner there iss there? >> the european allies are the ones wanting an agreement more than we are, with europe germany, with our key allies i think we are working well. >> i mean our allies in the region. i mean our allies in the region when you look at israel when you look at -- >> no. no. right. i agree with you there. the first rule of politics is you secure your base. you start out with your base. when the saudis supreme allies gulf states israel main ally in the region are very dubious about this i think you have got

to pay extra attention, extra defense commitments. but this is a very bold move. the concern i have is will theall right, iran gets this deal they get a bunch of money, money relief from sanctions, oil revenues especially. by the way, i think the praise of oil, if there is an agreement is going to plunge because of the oversupply more iranian oil in the market. then you worry about whether, you know besides the nuclear ambitions curb that you're, in other areas, suppressing their terrible behavior. so, i want to see what comes out. i think the administration deserves credit for pushing this, for wanting to do it. it's bold. you know this arms embarring zboet one that troubles me the most, this new provision that the iranians introduced about ten days ago. >> hey, bill before we let you go, a little politics here at home. hillary clinton today planning

to address an economic issues calling on shoring up the middle class, her defining issue of the times. last time we had you on the show you said you weren't ready to jump out in front and back her just yet, you might ultimately. have you changed your view on that? >> well no i am staying loose, but i like what she is staying, focus on a balance between income inequality and economic growth. you know i'm not a big class warfare type. i don't want to see, you know, this go after the 1% tax the rich. back when i was governor, i lowered taxes to bring incentives and jobs. but i'm pleased she is talking about an economic populism that focuses on income inequate and job creation on tax rates for small businesses. i haven't seen the address, but i think she is moving in the right direction, 'cause, you know, this is a is centrist country. the country will elect a centrist president, not somebody on the far left or the far

right. >> okay. we are going to leave it there. bim richardson we appreciate it. thanks. what's that?ll richardson, we appreciate it. thanks. what's that? you don't think hillary is a centrist? >> said the country elected a centrist. what happened the last time? last two times? no i wasn't going to say anything, you crack it had out. >> dragged in out of me. >> let me cut this off now. maybe they won't again. maybe they won't. >> when we come back this morning, a strong debut from minion. we will tell you how much the film brought in over the weekend. here is a hint, it was a lot. plus joe summer music minute, his review of taylor swift in concert, next. at. it's a fact. kind of like shopping hungry equals overshopping.

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...that sound good? not being on this phone call sounds good. it's not muted. was that you jason? it was geoffrey! it was jason. it could've been brenda. welcome back to "squawk box", everyone a busy week in the markets. the data front tomorrow retail sales and import/export price and quarterly from the jpmorgan wells fargo and johnson & johnson. on wednesday, producer price inflation data comes, also hearing from fed chair janet yellen, begin the first of two dives testimony on the hill.

plus, we get earnings from bank of america, intel, netflix and delta airlines and the fifth annual delivering alpha conference hosted by cnbc and institutional investor will be there bright and early, live from the location. also on thursday jobless claims and the ecb's latest decision on interest rates. on the earnings front on thursday, we have got citigroup, goldman sachs, google united health all set to report. janet yellen wraps up her testimony on the hill. friday, we will wrap up the week with consumer price inflation data and housing starts and quarterly results from ge. universal's minions taking the top spot at the weekend box office bringing in $115 million. the global take so far just shy of $400 million. that beat even the highest tracking estimates. it was enough for the second highest opening for an animated film in north america. fell just short of "shrek 3" in bev. minions features the voices of sandra bullock and jon hamm and

michael keaton. >> big summer for universal. >> universal's "jurassic world" finished second, bringing in $18 million and then well okay pixar, if i must mention, going to go back to universal in a second, "inside out" rounded out the top three with $147 million. we had some guy on last week that said i don't know about this symphony between comcast and nbc. you know year universal what kind of roll ron meyer is on? >> between "jurassic world" and "minions" and fast and furious. the first time ever a billion dollars, three of them. potentially. potentially. it went from -- >> universal is almost an afterthought a couple of years ago, back to almost -- >> theme park. look at nbc's ratings, everybody else. maybe not symphony someone knows how to run something after

he came in. not kissing up. anyway, check out this now. i know one song like "red" from the red tour 'cause i went the last time. i went to taylor swift. everybody was there just happened to be a picture of my daughter. everyone was there we open the out. she knows how to put on a show. she knows how to put on a show. and there we are again and then on the right there that is taylor's dad, scott, who is a managing director at merrill. >> event for her to have her dad. >> managing money. if you're in a place like met life and 60,000 people and everyone has the same lit watch thing on it was like you know, i like her, i like her, but everybody else is dancing. i'm not -- >> you weren't thought swinging. at your seat. everybody is moving every were she gives a great show. big cameras and this thing in the middle that rises up this

long ramp and then you don't know it is going to rise up and lamb propeller, take her all around the stadium. >> that is cool. pretty amazing. last week we talked about kayla, tausche went friday night. i said, oh bringing your niece, no, i don't have a niece. and i go well then why -- why -- so she had to admit she is going. >> no shame. >> no shape the next night, kayla tweeted this she went from taylor swift to the rinkly rockers, the stones. she traveled somewhere to see the stones. i can't remember what she told me buffalo. so cool. >> wow. >> entire spectrum. >> and then you know hime? >> i don't know if i do either. >> on "saturday night live" these three girls from l.a. play guitars, they came on before taylor were -- i have been a fan for a while, but they were -- they were awesome. >> i saw you tweeting them. >> maybe the -- >> i didn't know enough of

"1989" to appreciate. she is really good writes all of her songs acre mazingly talented, the pop star current pop star of -- >> not just pop star she is the business leader. >> i don't know how much -- >> apple changed their mind. >> available on the apple music service. >> i don't know how much this tour is going to bring in talking tens of millions. coming up much important -- tough explain this streaming stuff, she won't do it on spotify. >> is going to do it on apple music. >> because they will pay the artist. >> they should. the deal to keep greece in the eurozone, it means for the markets and whether it is a done deal. former treasury secretary larry summers weighs in on the agreement and the odds of approval by the greek parliament.

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bad blood. bad blood. >> welcome back to "squawk box" everybody. we have important overnight deal between greece and the eurozone leaders. we will get to that in a moment. first, here are the other stories font and sent they are morning. puerto rico's government officials and creditors will be meeting this afternoon at citi

bank's new york offices. we should get details about how puerto rico plans to restructure debt. the commonwealth made its key debt pages for july 1st but there are major questions about upcoming debts that are due next month. eft reports that saudi arabia has borrowed $4 billion from local markets just in the last year. the kingdom is trying to keep its high levels of public spending even as it deals with lower oil price. and uaw leaders and the big three auto make letters begin contract talks today. discussions rex expected to focus on the so-called tiered pay structure they agreed to some years ago. markets welcoming the greek deal futures indicated significantly high they are morning, european markets all in the green our next guest calls this capitulation and not something to rejoice about. mark bran managing director of southwest securities. mark, even this morning, i'm seeing some stuff coming out from your shop don't even believe that there's a deal done. and you have been on the grexit side of things for a while.

how confident are you that it's still -- that grexit is still going to occur? what percentage do you give it now? >> i still think it's about 70/30 that grexit will take place. and in terms of a deal which, of course, all the european governments put out, there is no deal, none zero no deal. what they did was they made greece bend over crawl around on their belly, put their paws up on the air, and they demanded all of these things and all this legislation by wednesday and then they said you have to take $50 billion of your state assets and i don't know how they are going to value the title to the acropolis or the par then non and put them in luxembourg and have the state-owned bank of germany supervise them which just means that greece would be

a vassal state of germany and then we will consider what to do. we will discuss it. there is no deal. i think the latest proposal actually doesn't put those things in luxembourg it is going to be back in atlantas, all though mask to your point, heavily supervised by outside entities, but when you said you think an exit is still 70/30, do you mean that in the short term or the long term? because certainly if the long term greece is between a rock and a hard place if they follow the prescription they are going to likely have a very prolonged recession, probably more emglacial from the country. if they don't follow their out now, either way it is tough. when you said 70/30, do you think now i would argue at least this news last night and this morning said that we have kicked the can again. >> i don't think we know two salient facts yet. the first one is i don't think we know how the greek parliament is going to respond to this. i'm sure there will be a lot of angry people. so we will have to see what

happens. and two, as you pointed out, when the parliament decides if they go through with all of these things which we will see if this takes place, then it gets kicked back to the eu for further discussion and consideration and germany and finland and some of the other countries could certainly make the terms even more onerous. the other big issue is you could forget the headlines they see because they don't count contingent liabilities in europe. so a very simple example, the nation of graeseece guaranteed $100 billion loans to the greek banks so the real debt of greece as we would count it in america, is $610 billion. if they defaulted on that, or even on the esm loans, esm only capitalized with 80 billion and greece owes the esm 90 billion much the whole thing -- the

whole thing is a mess. >> the last couple of weeks, we have seen a lot of surprise. everyone thought things were going smoothly, suddenly, we have a hiccup. counting everything goes smoothly this weeks, i think you have to be a tiny bet skeptical on that it feels like both sides are trying to keep greece inside. how do you square when looking at the market,, we have this noise from greece, it is a real problem, but it is a small piece of the economy, not a lot of contagion anymore. does greece continue to make you worried about europe or do you think that the retrace.we have got in european stocks over the last two months or so relatively speaking, is an opportunity, especially with the european central bank there on track to build its balance sheet to about 3.2 trillion your rose by next september? >> i think the markets are drinking the kool-aid that the government hands out. i get the joke that you have to pay attention to the markets to win, but you also have to have some sense of reality. so, i don't think that by the final negotiations there's

going to be a deal. and to be honest with, the smartest thing that the greeks could do would be just to default on all their debts and walk away and go back to the drachma but they have got political problems with that. i also don't think that the notion that's continually tossed around that greece is small and doesn't matter that much is valid. what -- you have an issue here in my opinion, is the european union. greece is the trigger for the european union. i think you have the european union in real and serious trouble. i think we have seen a real significant division between france italy on one side and germany, finland and austria on the other side and the netherlands. and i think what we are beginning to see is the possibility of serious cracks and you can say that the greece doesn't affect the united states

or our economy very much but you certainly can't say that if you view the european union as the problem and not greece as the problem. >> do you have a contingent liability figure for the united states? >> not off hand joe, no. >> i will tell you, from an investment point of view you know -- >> do you have a contingent liability? is it 200 trillion you take medicare? >> a lot bigger than the published number. >> who is going to bail us out? >> china continues to buy a few treasuries, as does january. >> i think bigger fish to fry, mark, leave the poor greek situation alone, start worrying about social security, medicare and obamacare in this country. that's not on your radar screen? >> occasion loin the radar screen but we have the cash flow joe, to fund that. where obviously greece does not have the cash flows or the assets to fund repayment. as you may have noticed, they talked about reprofiling but

nothing about restructuring their debt. >> i think the investment here is to stay bearish on the euro. if something goes pear-shaped with greece this week it goes down. even if it doesn't, the diverging central bank policies suggest maybe it goes down slower but still goes down. i think it's a great way to hedge your bets right now. >> good play. >> exit. >> maybe. long term. >> okay. >> thank you, mark. thank you both. when we come back the greek soap opera unlikely to end any time soon, according to a new ft column by former treasury secretary larry summers, who is going to talk to us next about the new agreement on the greek bailout. we are back with larry in just a moment. no? you can't see that? alright, let's take a look. the one on the right just used 1% less fuel than the one on the left. now, to an airline a 1% difference could save enough fuel to power hundreds of flights around the world. hey, look at that. pyramids. so you see, two things that are exactly the same

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mitigating risks across your business. leaving you free to focus on what matters most. welcome back everyone the financial dramas in greece and china are the subject of larry summers' latest column in the "financial times" it is titled "complacency and incrementalism are traps to avoid." larry summer of course is a former treasury secretary, also a former director of the national economic council and a professor at harvard university. larry, thank you so much for joining us this morning. >> good to be with you, becky. >> so what do you think of this agreekment, as it is being

called? >> hard to -- hard to know. i think reaching an agreement was better than the alternative. there was no real viable mechanism in place for an immediate grexit. redenominations of currency are potentially much catastrophic in their impact that devaluations and the experiment of losing a country from the european monetary union was not an experiment the world should have wanted to run. i welcome the fact there is an agreement even as i'm acutely aware of the difficulties on both sides, the sense of political reversal that this respects in greece the degree of conditions that have been

imposed on greece on the one hand. on the other hand i think what some of the commentary has not emphasized is the here is magnitude of the funds already gone into greece. you look at some of the past financial crises in mexico brazil korea, you talk about external funds coming in in the order of 10% of gdp. here, you are talking about external funds coming in way in excess of gdp. a certain point, you just can't have all the flow of funds be one way. more and more coming to the world from greece and nothing come out of greece. i think something in the framework offers the best prospect for success and i think

keeping the european union together given the point this has reached was a prudent objective, but clearly, one those view the situation with very substantial concern and a lot that could go wrong down the -- down the road. i was relieved to learn that an agreement had been reached. >> i agree with you on that larry. my question is of the money they are now talking about official funds going into greece $100 billion, what happens with that money? much of it goes back out to make sure it is paying the loans that had already come in. so, you start to get to the point where you wonder what this means for the greeks. are we really talking about a turn around if they implement some of these changes and streamlining procedures maybe that's good news. what do you think just about the greek economy over the next

several years? >> it is not going to be easy to realize the losses that greece has suffered offer the prospect of an improvement because of any kind of resumption of normality would represent a substantial improvement in greek economic performance. if you look at other countries that have had to go through very difficult difficult adjustments, a difficult period, but if you look at spain spain appears to have turned the concern. luke at latvia late via appears to have turned the corner. there is plenty of room for debate about how much austerity should be involved in these kinds of adjustments i, for one, certainly think debt relief should have come far earlier in

greece than it did i think you need to recognize how depressed the greek economy isn't a very fact it is depressed doesn't mean that performance is going to be tremendous. but it does offer the prospect of growth from here. i think the agreement reached was probably a reasonable agreement, at least in broad direction, given the circumstances. >> larry, i want to take your head to china for a moment, get your thoughts on what you think the implications are, what's going on in the chinese stock market to what's actually going to happen to the economy there and what the government's trying to do to prop things up. >> i think china and greece the psychology of the economy looms

longer than the ar riltithmatic economics. it is not nearly as big a deal for households as for example, our market would be. i think it is hugely important psychologically as a kind of scoreboard and a kind of reflection on the government's ability to keep control of things. i thought the strategy of manipulating the market upwards the chinese were pursuing was quite a dangerous one and that's become apparent. looks i like they are achieving their objective of avoiding free fall and generating increase these last few days the historical experience is usually, it is very very

difficult to manage markets in which people are able to speculate, even if you can change and control the rules in fairly arbitrary ways. on the other hand the chinese have a vast pool of reserves. they are enormous authority over many of the participants in these markets. i think it's a dangerous and unsettling game. probably with the situation in china representing a greater source of financial risk to the world, than the situation in grease. >> secretary summers, thank you for your time. love to have you in the studio again soon. >> good to be with you. coming up, big movers in the markets ahead of the opening bell. a list of stocks to watch. that's next. is a plus black rock's peter

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welcome back one stock we are watching ahead of the opening bell is am upgrade from hoe, societe generale optimism about the launch of new iphone versions this fall. in other news on the company, wall street firm canacord genuity am earned 92% of the

profits of the top eight smartphonemakers during that quart and a nice bounce big bounce on friday in that. back well above 700. but for a while, 690 b. 690 b, sorkin. i can't believe i send you something and you see it and you don't try to figure it out. >> he didn't see it. it was blocked. when we come back this morning, black rock's peter fisher on europe's agree tomorrow save greece. plus mohamed el erian and will bar ras. "squawk box" will be right back.

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breaking overnight, talks between greece government and talks for an aid deal. live in atlantas and berlin this morning this morning with team coverage, plus insight from a former merkel economics adviser straight ahead. plus, reaction from mohamed el-erian and will bar ras, first on cnbc. and building a better company, one brick at a time. how toymaker lego is looking to reduce its carbon footprint. the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now.

>> live from the most powerful sit in world new york this is "squawk box." welcome back to "squawk box," everybody this is cnbc first in business worldwide, i'm becky quick, with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. breaking news this morning, a deal for a bailout on greece that news sending global markets higher. check out what's been happening in the european markets, they are off their highs, but the dax up by 1.33%, ftse higher the cac up 2%. similar gains in italy and portugal, too. that is pushing the stock future scare in the united states higher, the dow up 117 points above fair value. we have you covered when it comes to parsing the deals and what it means for the global markets. we have a former adviser to angela merkel. we will have expertise in

european economic. and al aian's chief market adviser is here. and wilbur ross the chairman and ceo will join us he has a lot of money tied up in greece's third largest bank. he said if there wasn't a deal it would be pretty traumatic, ask him what this potential deal means now. let's kick things off with our team of reporterers, covering every angle of the story, steve liesman in berlin michelle caruso-cabrera in athens. steve, let's kick things off with you, sir. >> thanks andrew. in the last hour, i talked about guarded positive reaction from the german political story. i want to get with the economyists saying here in germany and abroad it is not positive. economists are saying this a grexit is still the likely outcome. they are scene cal greece can follow through and ultimately they will stay within the union.

some of the commentary, back here in here in frankfurt, the doubts and concerns youth weigh the euphoria out there. germany has overplayed their hand, something you hear a lot. bound to create lasting scars. the summit has is shown how deeply divided the eurozone is over the nature of monetary union. the greek deal is "wrong," it risks -- the risks are high for german citizens. politically this deal can pass whether or not there ends up being a backlash opposed to any additional greek aid, remains to

be seen. i throw to michelle in athens to ask her, are the risks high for german citizens, michelle from this greek deal? >> extremelism i think everything that's been said by the economists you are talking to, steve, is absolutely spot on. grexit is off the table for now. but there is still a very high probability of it because there's very little trust that even if they pass a lot of the key legislation in the next couple of days as is required by last night's deal can they ultimately get major things done? let's give you one example. talk about one of the conditionalities that was imposed in last night's outline for a deal. a $50 billion euro fund in which the greek government is supposed to transfer 50 billion worth of greek assets mostly real estate, into an independent fund this they don't control of stuff that's going to be privatized. tsipras won one key concession last night the germans wanted all those assets in terms of title moved outside of greece into a fund either in luxembourg or somewhere else and greece

said, no no no we will do it we promise. show you the poster child for the failure of there. george papandreou promised this. an airport, an old athens airport five miles south of athens. we should be showing you the aerial footage of the old ain't airport abandoned in 2001. start with the aerial so that you can see what a fantastic real estate location it is right on the mediterranean, a huge abandoned space with a great location that they were theoretically going to redevelop into some kind of hotel, casino multipurpose space of some sort. seems so natural. the bidding process took forever. many bidders finally just dropped out. finally a deal struck two years ago, a local real estate company agreed to pay nearly 1 billion

euros for the space, get the first installment when, the greek government finish all the paperwork. they thought it would take two years, if they were lucky. then this new government comes in and they stop everything no privatizations, so that is emblematic of the privatization process right back across every single reform that greece has ever promised to do and that's why there's so much distrust whether they will do everything required of them in paper last night. guys, back to you. >> we are hearing this deal is going to cost -- cause lasting scars because of the treatment of greece. then i think about what kind of injury the continent of europe needs to really have a scar based on some of the scars that are still there from 30 40 50 100 years ago. these are scars on scars? these respect -- you know this is going to be a lasting scar compared to what germany -- not just germany, but europe has had

a lot of. i don't think this is going to be the one that maybe they mean this new union. the other thing, michelle we found out the germans think this deal is bad ant greeks think it's too tough, it reminds me of the deals we do with congress back here where both sides hate it and then you know it's a deal that has a chance of actually working because neither side likes it. those are the only ones that ever work right? >> i would agree with you on that last point for sure. and back here there is amount mitch month business community, of all people that can actually get this done alexis tsipras, he is so popular, he is the one person in this country who could actually sell all of these proposals to the greek people. if you think about clinton a democrat, having done welfare reform and nafta, two things theoretically would have been done under a republican administration. right? >> i don't see people saying wow, i'm really mad at germany,

they were just too tough on greece. wasn't there something else germany about -- let me just -- maybe not. anyway, here now, a couple of world wars here now in studio with us, peter fisher senior director of black rock investment institute and senior fellow at dartmouth tuck school of business. you know you're a bond guy. i don't -- you don't -- i don't know what the hell i have no this means for bonds f they exited, there would be a rush to safety and bond yields would go down. yield are up on the deal, respect they? >> a little bit. i think this is better than the alternatives. messy, the comes that larry summers before the hour, i agree. >> i didn't know what he wanted. in his op ed he said we don't want incrementalism. but like he wanted debt restructuring, not a debt reformulation. that's incrementally. that's -- did not take an incremental approach. a derth approach. >> xbrer manny was too tough, everything i hearded last half hour i agree with germany is too

toughing, but a three-year deal is better than a six-month deal. that is very important to make if this holds together doing snag will last three years, give people a time and a structure to try to resuscitate the greek economy. this is too much money. >> i do you acknowledge germany was too tough when their own citizens are mad they are giving this much? >> if you watch the headlines come out over the weekend from the negotiations you can see some other european leaders thought they didn't want to be a member of a club in which the germans could throw you out whenever they want. . >> i don't think that a a stable structure, think what people came together on over the weekend something that fragile, you get thrown out if you don't

quote the -- >> voted to get thrown out. >> they didn't do that we know greek people want to stay in the euro. i think bertha they are moving forward with something. it is still very messy is where i would leave it. . >> they had major portion of the population didn't want them doing more mps from the naturalment saying they were going to go against merkel. some point, tough talk from greece and tough talk from germany is about appeasing their constituencies and that's the problem with this european union, no overwhelming centralized voice. >> we should have done more to run families through bankruptcy. i think that's one of the lessons of the financial crisis that i look back here in the united states. we should have done more debt restructuring here, yes. we should have taken households a not just done the -- >> tough and then comes back and

doesn't -- >> no you're extending and pretending is not a strategy. >> no saying that you're saying that when you hold people to the terms that they can't pay, then you're cutting off your nose. >> yes, we are in agreement then i'm sorry. i think we should have done more than that >> not agreeing just saying this's what you're saying. >> we should have done more than that and can't just pretend the greek people can pay this back. some restructuring coming out of this recognize that with the germans after the first world war, recognize cbs after the second world war and i think eventually, if we can get a three-year deal and calm people down, you will see restructuring come out of this. >> if i were -- if they really want to do it where they don't have to toe the line then they should exit devalue the currency, they should bankrupt they should file bankruptcy on everything, go back to the drachma and work their way out, if -- sichle choice. you live with your responsibilities that you ran up

with your prove flying gatt lifestyle. fligate lifestyle. >> you can restruck sure the debt without deplaying in the the currency. >> in the terms of the ecb. >> i'm not a wimp. the history of national debt. currency. >> in the terms of the ecb. >> i'm not a wimp. the history of national debt. >> the terrible a word? >> what, austerity? [ overlapping speakers ] >> if they vote no, they don't want to you dmoerks the structural reforms necessary go away from being a socialist country -- >> creditor takes no responsibility? you are getting moral hazard

completely backwards. you get to lend whatever you want, you don't have to pay any attention? >> like blaming the lenders in the financial cries city for the problems as well. >> yeah some of the mortgage lenders -- yeah, exactly. >> grecian the skids for -- >> i'm happy too blame the government as one of the lenders, but also the lenders. yeah. they lend too much money. >> nobody has any person a responsibilities. >> both sides are responsibility. you are saying they are all on one. >> no, i'm not. >> yes you are. >> you definitely need to do the normal type of risk disclosure and underwriting. >> don't lend money to people you don't think can pay you back. >> they did it because they were trying to protect their own banks. >> yeah. >> so if you don't -- >> that's moral hazard. >> you don't lend money to people you don't think can fay back, no solution for greece other than bankruptcy and drachma. >> we have got 300 years, we write write down debts at this point, restructure them what we did in the great depression this country, why we invented the bankruptcy code instead of sending people to debtor's prison, get over it. >> just like the guy who came in

with the student loans and wants to start a big mom. no one pace back the student lopes and the chaos results? >> no both sides. both sides take responsibility. you're saying it's all one. i don't get it. >> yeah, i don't know why you enter into a contract if you don't plan on living up to it. >> why lend money you don't think can pay you back and expect the government to bail you out? >> whether or not they did the proper underwriting -- >> hold on going to take his side for one second, greece lied to a large degree. >> everyone knew that. >> hold on. greece lied to the creditors. >> everybody knew that. >> everyone knew they were being laid to? >> yeah. >> not so sured to that they were bribing what their gdp was what theirt theity tall -- theity tailians were. >> predatory lenders? >> they were doing it for their own interests.

>> keep the euro low? >> no they can have people devalue away from them. >> peter what does this mean for the stock market -- the bond market at this point though in the implications of a potential deal? >> very tepid, too uncertain, a deal is better than no deal, but uncertain you have been talking about the last half hour 45 minutes on the show i think china a big wrinkle. the fed "a big wrinkle. janet yellen talking about productivity is declining, doesn't naught in her speech alongside monetary policy, ends her speech on friday talking about a productivity slow down going on here. monetary -- that tells you the fed might be tightening more than they were talking about. >> so in other words -- >> a lot going on. we have avoided a crisis in greece for now, but the markets are on tiptoes. >> okay. >> approach my life differently now, knowing that everything is just sort of a suggested

repayment schedule not really a -- you know, what i can come up with any given time. >> want us to go back to debtor's prisons, no bankruptcy code in america? >> somewhere in the middle. >> i'm for somewhere in the middle. >> doesn't sound like it. >> okay. coming up when we return, a former adviser to angela market carl theodore zee guttenberg here and discussions of what to help greece again with mohamed el-erian.

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in addition to the overnight deal on greece we are following iran talks and reports say a deal with iran on its nuclear program is close. i don't know how close. we have been hearing this for -- hasn't it always been close? >> yeah. 18 months. >> yeah. >> it is expected to end sanction opts islamic republic and let more iranian oil on to the global markets and a lot of the deadlines here are -- these are kind of voluntary

suggestions sort of deadlines. >> supposed to be two days before that >> the whole world is kind of squishy and -- these aren't real firm things that we are talking about here like contracts. anyway, there's what's happening with crude right now. the suggested surprise 41.86. whatever you can pay at this point, we will take. we will work with you. when we come back this morning, german chancellor angela merkel says the your row zone is open to the idea of giving greece relief but ruled out an outright cut in the debt level. we will get reaction from germany's former --

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we have created the companies for being able in germany to be able to recommend to pass a vote to resume negotiations for a concrete esm program for greece. >> that was angela merkel overnight making comments on the deal to give greece another lifeline in the eurozone. here is carl theodore glue is guttenberg, minister of defense and minister of economic and technology in german chancellor merkel's cabinet. >> who won today? >> nobody. we only see losers. the european union and your zone. you come to a compromise open a

negotiation style for others also want to bend other stretch lose, nothing that leads to a more stable or european union. angela merkel comes back to germany with a compromise that will not be embraced by her own party and will not be wholeheartedly lead to -- >> you called her the iron lady too. >> what you're gleaning from this? did you hear what he said? he doesn't want the slightest -- just for arguing for debt forgiveness on peter fisher's side, said you were going to ask him the question and came on and said that bending the rules the all is a terrible thing. >> doesn't want to bend any rules. >> why focus on that as to whether she is not as much of an iron lady that is your take? >> are own iron person, you come to a compromise a couple days before -- >> what are the socialists leftist and up atty austerity

people saying about angela merkel right now? she is the worst possible -- not a word for how iron she is compared to the other side. this is just the side in germany that wants to try to get their money back at some point, right? >> yes, some want to try to get their money back. others would like to see a successful idea, prevail for the next decades to come. >> were you listening to this last guest? >> i was yeah. >> is that an altitude that's getting -- that was a a guy who works at a place that issues bondses, too. so is this an attitude that's pervasive in europe right now, that if you lend someone money, if you're stupid enough to lend them money, that you shouldn't expect to get paid back? >> i think it's part of the reality they are facing in europe, if you lend a lot of money, specifically to come governments that play -- >> profligate? >> and that keep like on what -- [ overlapping speakers ] >> he says the germans and everybody else knew that they were like. >> no. not at the very beginning, we

didn't have an idea probably gives some reflection of our competence at the time. >> for a lot of the people in germany, it will be seen as leaning in too far. >> amazing, how screwed up the union is. people don't like it. >> this is one of the things which i see, we are in the weakest state of the european union and the eurozone for many many years right now and if you look at italy, if you look at portugal, you look at spain at a certain time, some movements you already face there. you come to an conclusion -- [ overlapping speakers ] >> bad behavior being reward? >> being rewarded the end of the day. we are establish agriculture of black mailing. >> you think this is going to inspire more? >> it will inspire more. >> now we are just seeing that tsipras is facing a mutiny from

sar reza because of his capitulating to all the demands of germany. you are saying merkel is facing a mutiny for -- >> this is why i say we see only losers on that day, that morning now. >> will this pass the german parliament? >> it will, but with a couple of objections from her own party. >> thank you for coming on this morning. this was really helpful. come back. allianz's chief, mohamed el-erian el-erian.

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explore less invasive device and a drugmaker instituted anti-takeover measures as it fends off last weeks $1.8 billion buyout from horizon pharma. greece reaching a deal with european creditors pledging stringents austerity to avoid exit from the euro. joining us is mohamed el-erian allianz's chief economic adviser. we have been hearing spirited discussions to figure out who got the deal heard from a former minister of defense and former finance and technology minister from germany, who says all he sees are losers here. what do you think? >> becky, this is a really messy situation. i want to take it to the practical side, sort of who got the better deal who did better who did worse, but the practical aspects are the following. in relative term it's good thing. in absolute terms, it is a total mess not just talking about the economic and financial difficult test of implementing this but deet mapped this is going to

impose on the institutional bodies are huge. and in addition, the politics this is the return of gunboat diplomacy, not easy to sell politically the socials a sprekts really complicated. i think we should welcome and be relieved in relative terms, but markets should be prepared for an uncertain and uncertain and messy implement takes process. >> probably not surprise. i was more surprised that they actually came to some agreement overnight, mohammed. i thought given how both sides have kind of lifted up the rhetoric, particularly with sip police and some of the things they have been saying with his former finance minister all the things he had been saying how do you come back to the table and cut a deal both sides can actually trust? >> i see this as very simply, came to agreement for two negative reason, not positive not because they believe that this agreement will work but two negative reasons. one is the alternative is much more uncertain and therefore, much scarier for them. secondly no one wants to go down in the history books as having

made the decision for the exit of greece. if it happens, rather it happened because of conditions on the ground. so they are going to try to keep the game going, but this is not -- people have to understand this is not a deal of people coming together and trusting in a good outcome. they are being forced to do this and it is going to -- its implementation is going to be very uncertain. >> i try and figure out what this means in the long term and the guest we just spoke with said he doesn't think germany will ever see a dime of repayment. that is probably reality, right? >> yeah. i think greece is overindebted. the collapse in gdp means less likely to be able to pay and that's just a real that people have to accept. i think the tricky thing is at what point do you decide that you have an orderly process for handling an exit from the eurozone and what -- the message from brussels is very clear, they don't believe that is the agent. they don't believe they have an orderly process in place and

therefore, they would rather continue with something that's very messy and uncertain. >> we have spoken about how for greece, this is not going to be easy this is still going to be very difficult for the population there we have talked about how tsipras basically had to eat crow and come back and take a deal that is even more stringent that the deal he rejected just a week ago with this population. however, there's also the reality that this deal is a way of renegotiating terms and in some ways rewarding bad behavior for the brinkmannship. that is a message that is accept out to the rest of the eurozone. where do you stand on the moral hazard of what this all means? >> i find the moral hazard issue difficult. anybody looking at greece will not openly go down that path. okay? what's happenings on the ground is absolutely awful. it is a tragedy okay? people are really suffering on the ground. so i don't think the moral hazard issue as being a big deal. what i do take as a big deal is that you have a monetary union

hasn't work $out how to deal with very difficult issues, therefore, it prolongs the pain and the agony. the longer the pain and agony is prolonged, the more the possibility of collateral damage. i think that's what people are worried about they are worried about the collapse. there is a lot of discussion in europe today about the divisions between the two camps within the eurozone, one led by germany and one led by france that has to heal going forward, regardless of what happens to greece. >> we have wilbur ross joining us in just a little bit. 's private investor who has made a substantial investment in a geek bank. and all i have heard this morning, some investors will be asked to share the pain along with this. do you have any idea what that means for investors in any of these greek institutions? >> so it's not clear to me yet how the banks are going to be recapitalized. they haven't decided. i suspect there will be some sort of burden sharing. i'm not sure what that's going to be. had this whole issue of burden sharing is going to be with us for a while, not just between -- within greece but also within

europe and the imf. no one is going to rush in with lots of money to bail out somebody else. so, this burden sharing issue is going to be complicated, but i suspect that the recapitalization of the greek banks is going to be another negotiating, as is the bridge financing, haven't heard yet about the bridge financing that has to be put in place really quickly. >> mohammed the whole thing, the way it's been explained recently is yeah, the euro and the single currency and the eurozone is -- wasn't $, it was a bad idea to start. but we did it. so as long as we did it there's no going back now. so, we got to -- we got to stick with it, 'cause you can't reverse what's already been done. that's bad way probably to enter into a european union and so we wonder why there's problems just right from the start, you know that -- that there are now -- greeks shouldn't have been let in the first place,

still doesn't qualify to be in there. but i'm wondering, with what you're saying how hard it is why not let greece leave, let them default, anyone else that wants to leave can leave at this point? why try to make something -- why fry to fit a square hole -- a square peg into a round hole if it's not going to work down the road? >> so i think most europeans would agree with you, joe and say we have to be able to tick two boxes with some conviction and foundation. box number one we can, the eurozone can navigate an exit that this is no longer 2010 or 2012, that the eurozone can navigate an exit while containing contagion. i think they can tick that box. the second box they need to be confident about is that the eurozone can emerge strong that greece will not be an example -- good example for other countries, it will be such a deterrent that the eurozone will come together and complete its banking union and complete its fiscal integration. they are not yet there the minute they feel they are there, they will be able to do what you

said which is let's admit that we have a problem and let's deal with it. >> mohammed that is the central question is the deal on the table going to push everybody back, and inspires other like spain, litly and pore -- italy and portugal raise their hand and say they don't like their deal? >> the summits will be dominated by graes and other important issues are going to continue to be crowded out and that's another tragedy. that's two big tragedies underreported, what's happening in the streets in athens absolutely awful, in terms of what's happening to people there and what's happening to the whole european agenda that has been crowded out completely by the fact that every summit has to have these emergency discussions on greece. >> what type of moral hazard is worse, i wonder moe hammed me the premise just put forth that -- you don't get paid back

if it's going to be blame opted learned for lending the money and not being smart enough not toyou don't get paid back, if it's going to be blame opted learned for lending the money and not being smart enough not to lend the money, why would anyone lend again? they are greedy and return on their equity? >> you know i'm old and i have seen the discussions coming again, i remember 1998 after russia default and people said there will be never another penny leapt to russia took couple of years and everybody started lending to russia again, right? and that's because the short-term profit motive is very high. and markets forget. so i'm not worried that thank there won't be another penny going n in fact, i think if you find a which of normalizing greece and this -- it is hard task, you normalize it there's a lot of attractive opportunities and wilbur is going to talk about them when he comes on, a lot of attractive opportunities. i'm not worried that private

capital will shy away. i do believe when something goes wrong it is a shared responsibility and there is a tricky burden sharing that hasn't been negotiated. and you move on. >> greece should be -- i can't imagine that if you did the right structural things that it couldn't come back really strong in a few years. and i remember you were almost going to go run egypt for a while. that was possible. why can't michelle go over and be the finance -- would you -- do you know anyone over there? can you suggest that maybe she should be running some of this -- these reforms over there? >> you know more people joe, than i do i just watch from a distance. >> your name was put forth, so i'm going to start this grassroots thing for caruso-cabrera to go do the type rite type of reforms. couldn't greece come back some day mohamed, given the beauty of the country and the tourist attractions? it seems like they've lot going for them? >> don't forget joe, countries

respect companies. they don't disappear. they continue. and they come back. thanks, mohamed. when we return, we got billionaire investor wilbur ross going to join us part of a consortium, the largest shareholder in greece's third largest bank. what needs to be done to save the financial system there we will be right back in just a moment. verizon say neversettle. t-mobile agrees. never settle for verizon's overpriced gimmicks.

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♪ and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business... that's huge for my bottom line. what's in your wallet? welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. look at the futures now, we have green arrows things getting better. dow looks like it could open up

higher. s & p open 13 higher and nasdaq 33 points. overnight, you have heard talks resulting in a deal with greece. joining us with reaction is someone who has a vested interest in the deal wilbur ross, chairman and ceo of wl ross and company, part of a connoisseur see yum that invested billions in greece last year largest shareholder in greece's third largest bank. we said wilbur is breathing a sigh of relief. maybe a little sigh. it is a significant investment wilbur. i'm sure that you're pleased today. but you know one thing that we are seeing is a lot of people say there is still going to be a grexit the deal's not really done. do you have insight into -- or at least how optimistic are you that this is really the end here and it is going to work out? >> well first of all, i think the deal will get done. and i think a lot of the people who are naysayers now are also

say neigh naysayers saying there would never be a deal, so, at least there is consistency to their position. i think they will be just as consistently wrong on their bet here. i believe it will go through. i think what's maybe in some ways important, i think there will be a change in the political situation in greece. the chairperson of the parliament is a hardline person totally opposed to the deal. i don't see that person continuing in power very long and i think there will undoubtedly be some changes in the cabinet as well and those are much more likely to be pro these various decisions that were enacted over the weekend than opposed to it. so, i think it not only will be enacted, i think it will be implemented. >> german citizens think at this point that germany is giving up too much.

looking at the way merkel handle handled this, she was too tough, not tough enough or just right, in your view wilbur? >> well i think both the germans feel they didn't get a good deal and the greeks feel they didn't get a good deal. and usually, that's the sign that it is a fair deal. so, i think it struck a good balance. and i think the most important element that nobody seems to have talked about is the privatizations really will go forward. transferring those activities which are highly unionized, highly left wing out of the direct control of the greek government so that they really can be private advertised. that -- privatized. that's huge, big deal. the second thing that is a big deal is extra capital, extra cash for growth. that wasn't part of any of the prior discussions and i think that's important, to moderate the amount of economic hit that

will otherwise come from the austerity. >> wilbur you have seen everything and made a lot of investments and done well over time. i'm trying to understand the rationale for the anti-austerity crowd and whether you think that it would abadbe a a bad precedent. size for people who had a lot of money, banks whomever you want to talk about, just forgive the loans there would be much less suffering, there would be -- you know, way for greste to start fresh, start anew put in some reforms, but not be saddled with that huge burden. a lot of the banks take a hit, a kwu farthers were their profits are lower. the anti-austerity crowd seems to think that would be fine to do it that watch do you

understand their mind set? >> i don't agree with the anti-austerity people. # i think needed societal reform. there was a lot of disfunctionality in the way that both the economy and the society was structured. those are now being addressed. in the terms of moral hazard one thing a politician wants, it's to be re-elect. and if i'm right, there will be significant changes in the political scene, that will be a deterrent to other countries from playing games with the eu. so, i totally disagree with the notion that there's anything here that will encourage bad behavior on the part of the other, beaker countries. >> have you heard the idea that's the you -- if you're not going to get paid back because someone is unable to pay it

back, money you have leapt them have you ever heard that you bear the responsibility for being stupid enough to lend in the first place just because you were trying to earn an interest rate and i guess you were greedy to try to make money on lending them money that you should have known, so you shouldn't expect to be paid back? >> i think there's plenty of blame to go around for the greek situation, but i think what you have a he seep happen is originally what was at risk were banks, especially german banks and other european non-greek banks. that got transferred to the official ledger. and more recently, the ecb got drawn in for almost 9 billion euros of emergency liquidity assistance money. this was partly designed i think, to protect ecb and restore back some liquidity and

avoid some loss that it otherwise would have had to take. as to the amount of the debt itself get to a primary budget surplus because right now they're going cash negative every month without reference to any interest or principle. a lot of these reforms will pure that and i think that's the other thing that people are not paying attention. finally, what's really going to happen with the debt it'll be made extremely long at extremely low rates and that will knock out the true present value just as effectively as formal debt forgiveness. >> right. >> extend and retrend.pretend. >> i guess in a union, german dit citizens should be willing to monetize. they're all together in a union. >> we can be forced to pick up

your debt but we can't tell you what you can and can't do to restructure things to make it a more working alliance. >> i love it. >> this is a coupe. >> i'm glad we're here. >> thanks wilbur. when we come back this morning, a big week for the markets heading your way. we'll head down to the new york stock exchange and get to jim cramer. let's get to the futures. dow futures up 122 points. ♪ if you can't stand the heat, get off the test track. get the mercedes-benz you've been burning for at the summer event, going on now at your authorized mercedes-benz dealer. hurry, before this opportunity cools off. share your summer moments in your mercedes-benz with us.

let's get down and join jim cramer who's with it. haven't seen him in a week. i missed him. jim, how do you trade this morning? >> well i'm looking at the dollar which is not good and we're about to be in earnings season. the dollar is very bad for when companies report and most of them are going to have to cut numbers and i think we're going to be talking about a fed rate hike now that greece seems to be settled. i think our market is probably the worst market to trade off of this. i understand euphoria because we're all exhausted about greece

but it's the dollar that matters in earnings season and we are in earnings season now. >> are you suggesting the sale end of the rally? >> i think international companies you don't want to own. you want to own domestic companies. if you're able to go through and handle this quarter was aberrational because of the dollar and eventually the dollar will get weak some day, then i think you can buy international companies but right now if you look at tech and the big industrials, they're rolling over. i think they're rolling over because of the dollar. the dollar is just too strong. >> good point. thank you, sir. we will see you in just a couple of minutes. wish we had more time to debate the moral aspects we've been having here but we'll talk to you in a little bit. >> when we come back change is coming to lego bricks for the first time in over 50 years. we'll tell you what the company is planning.

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danish toy maker lego is planning to build a better brick. they say the change will take 15 years and if things go as planned, consumers won't notice a difference. what's changing? they're exploring a biobased alternative

to the petroleum-based product. it's an effort to reduce lego's carbon footprint. executives saying none of today's alternatives meet requirements for a consistent look and feel for the blocks. lego is recruiting 100 researchers for the product and it's going to take 15 years. by then we might be in the new ice age that scientists are talking about from strange things happening on the sun. hopefully not. hopefully we'll be at all new high temperatures. >> i like the logo in legos. that was like cvi i think. >> very quickly. let's take a quick look at the futures board this morning. we know it's been a crazy morning. we've been watching this potential deal with the greeks and that is why you can see the stock market indicated to open higher. s&p futures up by 13 and the nad

nasdaq up by 33. earlier the dax was up now it's up 1.1. the cac up. "squawk on the street" begins right now. good monday morning. i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and carl faber. we have a deal in greece. stocks are in the green in the premarket. a big week for preearnings. gains across the board. is shenzhen rallying. apple music reportedly capturing the interest of anti-trust regulators. at the same time the company now