tv Mad Money CNBC July 16, 2015 6:00pm-7:01pm EDT
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liar. lies. facebook. >> facebook is breaking out and will continue to rally. >> i'm melissa lee. thanks so much for watching. see you back here tomorrow at 5:00. do not go anywhere to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain and to teach and put it in perspective so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me me @jimcramer. wait! i thought nobody likes the techs and the financials that these market's laggards have turned into leaders as the techs and financials roared higher yet
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again today. dow advancing 70 points and the s&p climbing what's going on here? why the heck are money managers leaving the very best in order to pick at the raggedy rest? when i say nobody likes these stocks i say most of the big-time money managers and an acts vift that we interviewed yesterday just didn't want to go to those areas. they didn't seem to like or trust these businesses. for example, bill akreman, smart guy, made companies with restaurants and railroads, said he fears buying into businesses that could be wiped out by a disruptive competitor virtually overnight. he likes companies like warren buffett describes a business that can be taken down from the proverbial better mousetrap. the money managers who repeatedly year after year have gone back to the stock because they're cheap, have given in and surrendered and they're not able to take the pain anymore. >> the house of pain! >> too hard to analyze, and you what? these money managers might very
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well be right theoretically. i think it's time we speak truth to power and say just how wrong their thesis are playing out right now. the hottest stocks in this market aside from takeover stocks are companies with disruptive technologies and the financials. i know you can miss both of them and i'm sensitive to what these big-time money managers think of as tech and what they fear. >> house of pleasure. >> the house of pain! >> they're in the wrong address. take intel. last night the once greatest growth stock of the previous year reported a big upside surprise, and the stock immediately jumped 10% and as always the people who bought the stock didn't listen to the conference call and revealed themselves as the special idiots that belong on an anonymous wall of shame because we can't identify who they are. >> but when you listen to the conference call you realize that intel far from being a buy is another tale of woe and a business so levered to the
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personal computer that all of the good work with the acquisition of altera just isn't enough and it gave up almost all those gains in regular trading. stacy smith, the company's sensational cfo said intel had been models mid-computer dlierngs but oops! it turns out that it is and i quote kind of down in the high single digits. ouch! the other only other striend that's declining in that rate is the coal business. i'm not kidding. listen to the csx conference call and you see if you're getting ready to low single digit decline in coal and now it's seeing the high single digits and lumps of coal and pcs, who would have think it? trying to reduce its dependence on personal computers for the cloud-based products and so is hewlett-packard, but they can't outrun the decline. hey, ibm and oracle and what you're trying to expand in the cloud and they can't outrun the declines and the rest of their core businesses, either. so i totally get the reservations by these big money men because what they think of
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as tech is rapidly getting outdated, but i wonder if they know software and data and the provider of analytics software is better than anything legacy and we hit another all-time high. i wonder if they're familiar with service now and only a few points off its high with one of the companies out there. sure the companies can be disruptive and not yet in their formative periods. i didn't know anyone liked facebook yesterday and yet other companies keep writing checks to facebook and then they get $200,000 back in business and it's the preferred way for everyone to advertise who is trying to reach the younger people and every time i'm trying to reach millennials and he turns it over to facebook's advertising people and they seemed to all have computer science degrees who are smarter than anyone to keep the customers. again, that's another company that doesn't seem to come up ever and then there is google. one that no one talks about and vrpt talked about it for ages
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and thanks for nothing, because the stock rallied up 3% on top of being up 10% in regular trading on expense discipline and no doubt ordered by the new cfo, the one that we've been talking about that will be the game changer there. morgan stanley and that's why we turned positive. let's not just use information tech. how about biotech? where were these big time portfolio managers with receptos which i may have next week or celgene on the acquisition? they were nowhere, that's where, because they see farmers, merck, glaxo or pfizer and no-both businesses with dubious pipelines. they're looking at old pharma and not new pharma. let's go there. i didn't hear anybody talk at all about the entertainment worldwide, netflix. sure, the tech is infused with creativity, but it's tech nonetheless and it reminds me the pacific ocean with no pearl harbor in sight. no wonder it rallied 18% today alone and is the best-performing stock in the s&p 500.
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of course we'll have more about netflix later in the show. the last few years everyone wanted it and that was great. they were awful! and now they've given up on the banks just when the most important expense is coming down and coming down hard. the legal expense. the justice department -- the justice department's bank grand inquisitor tony west has left the building. he's going to pepsico! and that was the signal right then and there when he went to raise the numbers of banks. yes, the yield curve with interest that can tell us what you get in the deposits is going higher because of money demand and because the fed will raise rate, but what these money managers miss is the fear and loathing of the justice department and believe me it would have taken the artistry of cramer fave writer hunter s. thompson to describe the bizarre, byzantine world that the big banks have been forced to pay. some of these banks have paid
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billions in legal defense and end up billions to the united states and fines. i could have argued like my former hero former ceo of wells fargo that wes might have done better by putting bad guys in jail rather than having shareholders. you caught the beginning of the major run in all of the big banks when wes left to greener pastures of pepsico. right then they should have gone, hold the buy, but they were too busy thinking inside the box. the swing factor was legal expense, and the bank of america or citigroup or j.p. morgan for that matter and the people of goldman sachs who seemed to be a quarter behind are still being hit with big litigation fees and that's yet stocks lost almost a percent today after it reported but in the end i come back to the fact that these portfolio managers are creative with finance and plain whooped with finance itself where the real action is. i say there's more than one way to skin the cat.
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here's the bottom line the big cat, the lions and tigers they don't live in the cages that these hedge fund players hunt in. you'll find them hidden in the big game of great open spaces where they're harder to find but a heck of a lot more profitable when you nail one. why don't we go to michael in my home state of new jersey. michael? >> caller: boo-yah, jim. >> boo-yah, michael! >> caller: how are you? >> could aren't be better actually. thank you. how about you? >> caller: good. is it a good time to invest in financials like the carlyle group with the recurring fed rate? >> we don't need to be in those. we don't need to be a hero. we've got the wells fargo. let's not outthink this thing. we're back with john who is always better in the show and i don't take it personally when he slights me and doesn't go on it. [ crying ] >> how about ben in new york?
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ben! >> caller: big boo-yah from white plains jim. good afternoon, sir. >> white plains near my sister. what's happening? >> caller: great stuff. exciting news today in the stock market. i've been looking in this one company for a number of years now and the supply for oled and ppg. i know they just had a management change. what are your feelings on this? is it still something to buy? >> i was personally stunned and i was on tv with carl and david on "squawk on the street" and i saw bunch is retiring and becoming executive chairman and carl asked me what i thought of it and i'm sure chuck bunch picked ape great guy and he's one of the most bankable ceos i've had on the show and i said the stock will go down without him if he's retiring and the stock went down and i have to recalibrate. i think chuck bunch is that great. i have to recalibrate. he's one of the greatest executives in america, and i wish him the best of luck and i be he's staying executive chairman but it did make me
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feel wow! i like chuck bunch. ppg is good and i like chuck bunch. janice in california. janice! >> caller: this is janice in chico california. >> i covered a homicide -- i covered a lot of stories in chico. what's going on? >> caller: i'd like to thank you for sharing your knowledge and advice all these years. >> thank you. >> caller: here's my story. last year i decided to follow what carl icahn was doing and even though something really good happened after the close today i'm really concerned about hertz. is it a sell or a hold? >> no. this after the close put is closer that i've been looking for to be able to say and coulding irregularities no longer equal sell for this one and it cut the earnings per share by 11 cents and they're in good shape and they'll also do the spin-off. i want you to hold on and i say congratulations for being patient enough to be able to profit ultimately from hertz. times, they are a-changing but the big money managers are listening and not all of the big
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cats live in a hedge fund cage. sometimes you have to take a walk on the wild side to bag a real winner. on mad tonight, the only way to score huge gains and just look at the prosaic domino's pizza with the yellow banana peppers and it's up 11% and today i'll ask if he can keep bringing in the heat. then oh my netflix! it went up another 18% today. is it too hot to handle? you don't want to miss my take. don't miss my exclusive with the ceo of keycorp, stick with cramer! there's something in the water. are you making deadly mistakes or getting the most out of your money? cramer's got the answers on the key commodity on wall street before it's too late as chart week continues tonight. don't miss a second of "mad money." follow @krim jim cramer on
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there are only four companies out there that have a higher percentage of their business outside of the u.s. than us. ♪ ♪ . sure a speculative biotech stock that works out can give you like receptos of over 550% but if you think that's the only way to make big money, you're seriously mistaken. take domino's the location with 700,000 locations across the globe. i think domino's is a better example of how to make money in the market because this stock has given you a staggering 1,000% return since i got behind it in january 2010 and it's up
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704% since i interviewed patrick doyle more than five years ago and this is the terrific stock that goes higher and higher and higher, year after year after year and even though domino's has run up 23% year to date i'm convinced that it's got more room to run thanks to the brilliant all-franchise business model and its rapidly growing business and the fabulous technology that lets you order customized pidz as through their app or through a text message or twitter. this morning domino's reported another top-notch quarter off a 79-cent basis and more importantly a staggering 12.8 pertz increase in domestic same-store sales and the increase in the international numbers that would have been a heck of a lot higher if not for the super freaky strong dollar. rather than going higher domino's stock dropped $3 today, and i told you that was going to happen because the stock runs up ahead of the quarter and it has a tendency to sell off no matter
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how good they are, plus the company's cfo announced he's retiring and that's something wall street doesn't like but you know what we have to find out more. patrick doyle, the president and ceo of domino's pizza and you're worried about the quarter and where it is headed. patrick, you said it just a fantastic quarter, right? >> it really was. just terrific. couldn't have been happier with the way the quarter went. >> and every time we see your absolute best quarters you know your stock goes down and that's usually because people know how bankable you are. i saw nothing other than the cfo so i'm asking point-blank, the cfo is younger than i am so why is he retiring? >> he's going to go do some hunting and fishing. he's just ready and he's been here 16 years, and mike's been a phenomenal part of our success. sad to see him go but he deserves the opportunity to go do some other things he loves, and we've got a fabulous replacement in jefford.
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jeff is terrific. he's been training for this for 15 years here at domino's. he's going to be great so there's absolutely nothing to worry about that. >> all right. terrific. you have a lot in this quarter and you talked about the reimaging in the stores more than i've seen in a long time. is that because when you reimage a store it does better? >> it does. not a lot on an individual store, but we're becoming more and more convinced that as we're getting a mass of stores done it's helping to drive this terrific brand momentsum that we have. so what we're seeing as more and more of the stores are done and they're not seeing the old domino's it's just elevating the overall brand and what people are seeing in the stores is consistent with what they've seen from the food, the service and the technology. so we think it's definitely contributing to some of the momentum that we've got. >> now, when i see something on the conference call like for instance that you have an emoji
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that people use, i want to know if it's cute or is it add? we've been trailblazing on the creative with digital. we're not giving out specifics on how the mix is going with all these platforms, but what's absolutely happening is as we keep coming out with all of these new things that we're doing around digital, it's keeping domino's top of mind. it's showing our customers that we're responding to the ways that they want to access the brand, and that's clearly been a big part of what's driving all of the sales. both domestically and around the world. >> that's what i wanted to talk about, which is that i think advertising is different for youth. advertising is looking at an emoji when you skreel through emojis and advertising is looking through your twitter following and advertising is checking your facebook. those are, would you say equal now to your unbelievably good tv
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spots? >> you know, i think from a straight spend perspective, it's not yet. we still spend a lot more on television but as we see the rli continuing to build on these different things you know both kind of the paid advertising that we do in social media and plus the overall presence there and the ability to order there through, as you talk about the emojis through techs and tweets and all of these things it's driving kind of awareness and relevance with our customers and particularly the younger customers and clearly a big part of our momentum. >> you have very good breakouts this quarter. i always tell you, you guys are so transparent. i absolutely love it. the july investors presentation and you really make a very clear point that it's still coming from the smaller mom and pop people that you're taking. you're not saying listen we're wiping out pizza hut with the samsung smart tv and our android
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or apple watches. you're not saying that. you're still saying that it's taken from the smaller person right? >> yeah. if you look at going back five years now, probably six share points in the pizza category have gone from the smaller players to the big players, that has been and continues to be the big story and, you know clearly we've been growing more than anybody over the last few years but pizza hut's big. they'll get their act together and they're doing things to get more momentum there. the big story is that the major players still only have 40% of the pizza business in the u.s. we've been getting more than our fair share, but if we can keep that momentum going, there's a lot of growth that's going to happen for us. >> do you think -- i can't leave out the fact that there are other companies that are in the quick serve business. do you see any take away from a mcdonald's that a lot of people feel it's lost their way each
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though i know anybody can make a comeback. i think part of the lesson day, what we worry about the most and the financial metric that i am most concerned about is how are the franchisees doing and how are the stores doing? if they're making a great return, they'll continue to invest in the brand and they'll be energized about it and we're seeing that come through from store builds. so you know mcdonald's will get it together. it's a phenomenal brand. it's one of the great american brands. they're going to get it there, but if you've got that energy from your franchisees which we clearly do domestically and internationally, that feeds the overall momentum of the business more than anything else. >> we don't talk about that a lot and people feel mcdonald's have lost the franchisees. another great quarter and it's amazing. the market gives us buying opportunities because they think it's always over. it has aren't been over. it's got more years ahead and
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patrick doyle, president and ceo of dominos. thank you so much for coming on "mad money "qwest. >> thanks jim. i know the perfect quarter and what i mean it's perfect. it's exactly what it should be. "mad money qwest "is back after the break. there could be more than monsters lurkinging in the depths. chart week continues tonight with gold. how can you find buried treasure in the once-booming commodity without capsizing your capital. xramer is charting your path to profits coming up.
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it was geoffrey! it was jason. it could've been brenda. ♪ ♪ i do not have the words to describe the sheer amazingness of the conference call-net fliks had last night after its most remarkable quarter. "hallelujah ♪ when david wells and chief content officer ted serando sat down with mark mahoney from rbc, i'm not even sure they realized what they were going to do and say. did they know they were putting on a clinic about the new world of content and video consumption? did they even anticipate it themselves? because honestly this quarter, the one that came after the brilliant 7 for 1 split was so special i can't even count all of the ways i loved it. no wonder the stock rallied 18% on the news it should have
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rallied even more and $150 to close at $115 is a very reasonable target and it's in sight, people. it is the house of cards of conference calls compelling from start to finish. it's a conversation where you get to learn about how this company's management team thinks outside the box and it's extraordinary. so allow me to try something different. i'm going to give you the overall impression of what i heard here rather than just enumerate what went right, but let me work backward because this is about making money and not critiquing events and netflix is the most beautiful horse in the race and it's the american pharoah, and best in s&p show. it's patently ridiculous to believe that the opportunity is reflective even in the $49 million market capitalization. in terms of viewing on the internet and in terms of original content and in terms of technology whether it be hardware or netflix buttons are being built into the television sets before netflix goes to japan or in terms of making the
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cable companies play ball. the growth path is way too big to be complained and i laughed because of the piece of research that discussed the path to $100 but i was wrong to scoff although it's a common mistake to make as even the ceo has admitted he's tried to call the top of this one. there is the factor that goldman sachs laid out today that 400 million people plus mighting a target for netflix. netflix is a target anywhere and it's the bargain concept that's ruling here. you get unlimited viewing for one glass of beer in manhattan including tip per month. everyone can afford this thing and next year they plan to be everywhere including china where they'll release "crouching tiger hidden dragon 2" it's not being dictated by what the movie houses demand. it's customer first, it could be edgy, it could be tame seriously, funny, any language
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and it is algorithmically and perhaps they realize it more than anyone and they don't want to give away the algo and how amazing is that? fourth and perhaps most important, they don't care. they don't play by the rules and netflix makes the wrong projections and not because they want to underpromise so they can overdeliver and they don't seem to know how good they are and how beloved they become. they know if they keep giving people what they want terrific entertainment for a low price, i can go on and on about this quarter and let's just agree to do one thing. stop saying holy smokes and netflix is bigger than x, y or z entertainment company. get used to it. it should be. it's not restrained by an older infrastructure that's meant only to produce content or to distribute it the way that let's just say the pre-netflix world was. it's a company made for this moment. the internet viewing era worldwide and at this point it would take a colossal effort to screw it up. the bottom line netflix really is that good and all you have to
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do is read the conference call and you know why i think $150 is realistic for this stock. stanley in florida. stanley! >> jim cramer nice to talk to you. >> same. >> caller: i own time warner cable, and as you know, they're being taken over by charter. >> right. >> caller: time warner pays $3.75 a quarter. charter pays no dividends. what happens to that dividend? >> well you're going to be owning charter. you know this is over. we're not arbitrageurs, you need to take the money and move on. oh! let's go nowhere! what a blockbuster. i could aren't even count all of the ways i love netflix this quarter. all you have to do is read the call which most of you haven't,
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so please do. much more "mad money "qwest ahead including my exclusive with the ceo of keycorp. it rored a biz of a miss this morning. did it just give a great entry point and then a special chart week treasure hunt and i'm taking a deep dive into gold to see if the precious metal can start shieping again and a special edition of the lightning round! stick with cramer! what do you got to offer us today? ♪balance transfer that's my game♪ bank you never heard of, that's my name♪ haa! thank you. uh, next. watch me make your interest rate... disappear. there's gotta be a better way to find the right card. whatever kind you're
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lifeline is america's #1 medical alert service. visit philipslifeline.com/caregiver today or call this number for your free brochure and ask about free activation. >> so for it's not been a bad week for the big banks and j.p. morgan and citigroup and bank of america. what they each year is expanded for the first time in ages and we've seen a solid performance of some of the solid regionals. against this backdrop what are we supposed to do with keycorp which reported a quarter as mixed by the investment community. more important as i've been telling you repeatedly, the main metric for the banks is the market and they saw it decline by ten basis points year over year and not to mention down
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three basis points and which is the main reason it got dinged down today. the stock is up 15% since we spoke to the ceo in january and at this level it's looking cheap and the gigantic discount to u.s. bancorp. the chairman and ceo of keycorp and learn more about the quarter with the company's prospects. miss mooney welcome back to "mad money". >> hello jim. delighted to join you today. >> and i think it's kind of what i've read. second quarter, 15 miss on higher costs which more than offset robust i bank or investment bank. do you think that's an accurate judgment? they do have a buy on your bank. >> i will tell you, we had a very strong revenue quarter across our bank including a record quarter in investment bank and i do think we were in line with what we expected but the expenses came in at high side of expectations but i don't think we should lose sight of the fact that we have 4% revenue growth in the quarter and that was very strong.
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>> so what do you think of expenses going forward? you have integrating pacific crest, a tomorrow that i talk about all of the time and the opportunity is there to be able to streamline and take some costs out and be able to have more leverage next quarter? >> yes. as you look at year over year any of that does not include pacific crest because we closed that transaction in the third quarter of last year. we integrated it and we have one platform and it has gone very well and as we look at it it's a nice contributor to our performance going far ward. >> you have a sales force, and it could be called by one salesperson going in for the rest of the year? >> actually what we do is we consider therm specialists to our core banking platform and our corporate bank so as people have technology needs or needs for technology investment bankers, we bring pacific crest in and they come with their own set of clients where we have the opportunity to introduce them to key's products and capabilities. it's a nice synergy and we're very pleased with the
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acquisition. >> you know key has the nationwide footprint and some pants s parts of the country that look good and some that you're worried about? >> as we looked across the board it was strong in all areas both in the community and corporate banks and we have 10% commercial loan growth year over year and as we looked at it it was solid revenue trends as well as growth trends across the franchise. >> do we have concerns? when we were in the marcellus and the utica area which say keycorp area we know that there was boom but now it seems that that area slowed. are you concerned about the oil and gas lending? >> for us oil and gas lending is a modest exposure. it's only 2% of our outstanding lobe s loans and as we take a look at the utica and marcellus shale areas, production has remained steady over there. so as i look at it i still think the drop in oil prices and gas prices is beneficial for consumers and good for businesses as lower input costs and as i look at it from a credit quality and earnings
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perspective for key it's a modest exposure for us and i'm not concerned about it. >> how do you feel about new business creation and companies getting credit and homeowners getting credit? is the government giving you a hard time at all about trying to give people loans. i know you like to loan who otherwise might say in the old days we might let you lend and right now i am not comfortable. >> i do not see constraints to our ability to underbright and create new good business. we have strong standards and growing our loans 15 consecutive quarter on commercial lending and we've grown the consumer books and well-written and commercial borrowers as well as consumers have deleveraged and they have good capacity and we do not see constraints to approve prudent koeth. >> we'll have some rate hikes coming up and maybe one this year comfortable with that for keycorp keycorp? >> as we look at it she's been
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pretty pretty clear that the potential is present and we are modestly sensitive at this point so we are positioned to benefit from a rate increase but i think we're also hearing that the pace of rate increases after the initial part of the story, and i think we're all hearing that it will be a very measured rise and so we don't see any big spike in interest rates, but whatever benefit we get we'll see it in our nim and we'll see it in our net interest income and we'll be positioned from an asset sensitivity point of view to benefit. >> beth are you comfortable with the banking that pacific crest is and very easy underwriting because these are nuts and bolts great american companies and the pacific crest companies tend to be more exotic to say the least. >> pacific crest for us was largely sits with our investment banking group within our corporate bank. there are some, but more limited lending opportunities out of it but it sits well with our investment banking and capital markets platform where we are
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able to give advice create advisory capacity syndicate loans and help raise debt and equity so it really fits in that part of our bank more than it does from a generator of loans. >> excellent. beth mooney, chairman and ceo of keycorp. i think we'll see better quarters the rest of the year. thank you so much. >> good to talk to you. "mad money" is back after the break.
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over. are you ready, skee-daddy? we'll start with tom in california. tom! >> caller: hi, jim. how are you? >> real good. how about you? >> caller: great. my question is i'm still holding on to some apache apa. should, you know on, hold or sell? >> i do not like apache. the oil group is under tremendous pressure and that is one i do not want to own. joe in new jersey? joe? joe, joe? >> caller: yes. kramer. >> yeah! >> thank you for taking my call. >> of course! my stock is where i bank at. valley national bancorp. >> i know valley national bank and i've done business with them and that stock could go higher and it has a good yield, too. how about mike mike mike in new york. >> boo-yah from long island. >> my family had a shed there, what's going on? >> caller: nothing much just you know monitoring the stock market and -- listen i have a
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question about one of the stocks i have in my ira. i've been collecting it for its long-term growth potential. i just picked up more on the dip, 1463. for its -- >> this is nick. how are you doing? good, how about you? >> i have a question about skyworks. should i buy hold or sell? >> i like sky works, and i think it goes higher and now i'm going to speak to bill in pennsylvania. bill? >> yes, sir, mr. cramer. a quick question about b & g foods. they seem to be stuck at 30. >> we spoke with pal from general mills and it seems to be in the 150th year. greg in california. greg?
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>> boo-yah to you, jim. >> caller: boo-yah! >> jim, my stock is a biotech stock with a pretty good pipeline. i want to know if it's a candidate to be acquired. it's isis pharmaceuticals. i like isis. it's not been the one that i've been really recommending hard here and it has many different things in the pipeline and it's fine. james in nevada. james? >> hi jim. this is james from henderson nevada, and the products company that pays $2.83. >> power automation technology is not my thing. >> don't buy! >> no. it's just not my thing. let's go to ava in florida. >> caller: yes, jim. hi. >> hi. >> caller: i just want to tell you they first became aware of you in the early '90s when i read an article in one of the financials written by you about intel. >> yes, indeed. i had a good call.
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>> caller: what? >> i had a good call on intel in the '90s. >> caller: you certainly did. >> thank you and you explained why they were so volatile and that changed my whole investing life. so thank you for that, and my stock is kmi. >> kmi is part of a complex that is down a lot with the opportunity, and it yields more than 5%. i think it can go down? spend more maybe 34 and 35 and i would buy more even there and that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the lightning round! the lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade. what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place that lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim? for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this.
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for the last few days we've been hearing from some of our favorite technicians and it's part of the annual chart week and that's when we sit down with the best chartists i know and we'll learn more about the motive analysis that they have and get the perspective on individual stocks and the whole market or commodities. tonight we have a chance to catch up with our resident commodities expert carly garner. she's a brilliant technology who is co-founder of the carly trading and author of a trader's first book of commodities as well as being my colleague on realmoney.com and we want to know what she thinks about copper. the all-important metal that can give you a great view of how economies around the globe are doing and i use it to monitor china as well as gold that has
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been trading lower in the last few years. any on the bottom here? carly, good to have you. >> first thing we'll talk about is copper and as you mentioned it's contrary. copper has been in a massive downtrend for months now, but what makes me think that maybe things could be possibly coming to abend is if you look at a long-term trend, the last time that we traded below $2.40 in copper is the 2008 financial crisis and barring any repeats of those types of nasty fundamentals, i think there is a pretty good shot that the trend line overall will hold. >> wow. >> but let me ask you quickly because this is important, if china's stock market collapsed could that be like that? >> well, that's the caveat, of course. anything can happen. if a disaster, absolutely that could happen for now i'm thinking that the 2.40 will hold and if it does we'll run into resistance at 2.80 if we are
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looking at 3.60 or the high 3.80s. and i'll believe it when i see it. next up? >> one of the reasons why we think copper might be on the upswing is the seasonals. it's provided by mrci and they're well known in the commodity circles and if you're familiar with the research center incorporated and what this resource tells us is when the copper market is generally most likely to see peaks and valleys and the most likely seasonal low is all of the way back here and this is actually from july through august is when we normally -- we shouldn't be at a level when you see a springboard. >> this ignores fundamentals and this is over the last 20 years and this is what copper tends to do this year. >> all right. you're turning me into more of a believer. >> we like to look at the previous copper chart was a monthly chart and this is a weekly chart and we're seeing if there are any clues that are
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telling us maybe we're dead wrong on the monthly chart but so far so good and each time they get to the over -- sorry, oversold areas we start to get a nice little bounce here. you can see it each time however, this time we happen to be also not only are we a little oversold, but weir right on the send are trend line and these two instances that we've seen that before we've had a nice little run. >> that will be something. >> it will. obviously, there's ri resistance here and if we break through, off to the rateses. >> very contrary. >> okay. next up. >> as you know we come on the show a lot and talk about the co2. >> you explained the commitment traders report. >> and the idea is cftc separates traders into three category, the large speculator the small speculator and the commercial. we like to look at the big money and see what they're doing because a lot of times they get overzealous and they get a little eager to be too long or too short. right now we think they might be
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too short. every time they've gotten a position in excess of 25,000 contracts the markets bounce. >> every time? >> every time. >> and we're there. >> so it's compelling to us. maybe we're wrong. >> no. this makes -- i'm kind of liking what you're saying. >> next up. >> let's switch our focus to gold. gold obviously has much different fundamentals and we're on chart week and we were here last week talking about gold and honestly nothing has happened and the chart didn't lie to us and it still held the general trading range, but it didn't do anything either. we've been trading sideways and people are shunning the market. gold doesn't pay dividends and it's not going anywhere why hold it? when people are jung the market that's when i get interested and you'll notice this is actually the co2 report again and we've got not a similar situation to copper. it's the opposite. speculators are always net long gold and you would have to go back 15 years to see a time when
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they had net short positions. right now they're only net long which historically is very very low. so they have plenty of ammo if something heads the other way, there's money to push it. >> let's get another. >> oh man. that's a downtrend. carly, that's a downtrend. >> it is. last year we were talking about gold and it was right here and it's held the range and hasn't done anything spectacular, but i think it might. maybe we're finally do, especially if we can get help from the dollar. >> meaning what? >> meaning if the dollar turns around and goes lower, a lot of the weakness in gold has been 100% due to the dollar so that's a big factor here but if we break here i really think we can see at minimum $1400 or $1500 in the dollar does. so let's just figure this all right here and gold could be ready for a bounce and copper who has been a huge downtrend? thanks her big call my
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colleague at realmoney.com who has the sucks seeded with her calls. stick with cramer. at ally bank no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like shopping hungry equals overshopping. when you're not confident your company's data is secure the possibility of a breach can quickly become the only thing you think about. that's where at&t can help.
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♪ ♪ we've been talking about how google, nobody seemed to care about it anymore. remember not that long ago we said it had not moved in about 18 months each though they put in a new cfo ruth porat who was the cfo of morgan stanley. tonight we saw the trues of her labor and we finally got what i know i've been looking for, expense control. this company had been spending way too much without getting any results and now that seems to be in the rear-view mirror and that is why google is up big, and i've got to tell you something, i don't each think google is done. when you see stocks this big that's the beginning of new sponsorship and i always say there is always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. i'm jim cramer. see you tomorrow!
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