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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  July 21, 2015 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT

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melissa lee. gee, what do you have on tap tonight? >> i wonder. hmm. all the conference calls are getting under way. there could be a lot of volatility in the after-hours session. does this spell bad news for tomorrow's session for the dow which saw pressure from ibm and utex as well as the nasdaq wp we're going to follow all those moves tomorrow. >> see you tomorrow. >> see you tomorrow. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq marketsite overlooking new york's times square, i'm melissa lee. cnbc's live team coverage is all over the after-hours action for the full hour. josh lipton is monitoring the apple call just getting under way right now and will bring us the latest from ceo tim cook. julia boorstin listening in to the yahoo! call will bring you all the headlines from ceo marissa mayer. kayla tauschi is standing by as we await the microsoft haul which begins in less than half an hour's time. dom chu with gopro. that stock to say the least volatile in the after-hours session. plus our two top analysts in the space, apple and yahoo!.
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neil goshi of mizzuho covering yahoo!'s call out west. now to the story we're most focused on right now, apple down 8% in the afterhour session. recovering a bit. cnbc's josh lipton just spoke to ceo tim cook. >> melissa, i did just have a chance to speak with ceo tim cook. he walked me through the quarter as he saw it. let me convey the insights he had there. let's start with the iphone shipments. 47.5 million. that was growth of 35% year over year but it was also basically in line with what the street had forecast. analysts were looking for around 47.3 million. cook telling me he thought of the iphone's performance as a runaway success. he said the momentum continues, talked about how they continued to take share of the smartphone market. i also asked him what percentage of the install base had now moved to those recent 6 and 6 plus models. he said only about 27%. that implies a lot of potential
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upgrade headroom. but that's not what investors are focused on. at least right now in the after-hours. ipad 10.9 million units. that's just missing the street's forecast. we know ipad has been a source of disappointment for the street. i asked cook about the product. he says he remains bullish. he talked about the new operating system, the enhancements, the productivity tools, that partnership with ibm. as for the mac, 4.8 million. that's basically right in line with what the street had been looking for. cook pointed out mac is up 9% while the pc industry is down 12%. he said that new macbook had been in his words a hit. finally the watch. a lot of curiosity about the watch. in this report as we know apple did not break out watch shipments. it lumped the watch in with that other products category which includes ipod, apple tv, beats accessories. the category as a whole did sales of 2.6 billion. in q2, melissa, without the watch sales were 1.7 billion. i just also mentioned china. that had been a real worry for the bulls. the stock market slide there,
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what it would mean for the broader economy and whether that would hurt apple sales. revenue from greater china, that's china, hong kong, and taiwan up 112%. the conference call just getting under way. i'm going to hop on that call and bring you headlines as they come. melissa, back to you. >> all right. thank you so much, josh lipton. as we had noted, apple shares touched 120 a share in the afterhours session, has bounced off since. guy adami, in terms of the phone number it's interesting because tim cook said it was pretty" line. analysts had been inching up their phone estimates the entire quarter. and 49 was pretty much -- >> we talked about it last night. some people north of 50 million. so they're beating up the stock on the whisper number of the phone. okay. ipad shipments. but if you look, gross margins 39.7%, better than the guidance that they gave. average selling price to the phone was 660 versus 632. there are a lot of things to like in this except for the fact they didn't come in better than the whisper number. dan's had this spot on, a lot of
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credit. how do you trade the stock? july 9th it traded down to 119 and changish. i think you get long it against that level. but clearly people are disappointed because we didn't go north of 50 million iphones. at least that's my read. >> yeah, you know, i think the stock's been in sort of a -- sort of rangebound for a while. i don't think this materially changes anything. when you think about a holder like icahn, i don't think he's going to be in this because he thinks it's 6% underpriced or -- that margin isn't really big enough. so it's a little bit disappointing. as guy said, that was actually decent. i'd be a sort of 115 buyer, 135 seller. >> guidance on revenue was a little bit light. the guidance on gross margin would imply lower sequential gross margins. a.s.p.s for the quarter compared to last quarter was higher saying the mix was not going to the 6. >> that's what's disturbing. if you look at the revenue forecast it was 49 to 51 billion. the old range was 51.05.
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coming in weaker going forward i don't think it was coming in on the screws at 47 1/2 when the street had whispered you higher. i don't think the expectations were that great. but it's when the company is not giving you what they've given. the times this stock's been the most punished is when the guidance has been poor, not when we've looked at the current quarter and said the margins were poor. one of the things people haven't even talked about here, it's interesting because a month ago, two months ago three months ago we've had all these events at apple that were focused more on the platform and the consumer side and not on the hardware. make no mistake, people, this is all about hardware right now and anyone that was saying there was going to be a driver in the stock based upon apple music or apple pay or even the watch is clearly off guard. i am long the stock. and a move like this doesn't do anything to how i approach my investment in apple. >> does it make buy more? >> as we said, the levels -- and dan pointed this out last night. when there was a little bit of a friendly joust where i said at 131 i think the stock could be owned into earnings. and he said hey, the stock's rallied 10% into earnings and i said no, it was 5 1/2% to 6%. but either way it's exactly the level he talked about, 121, 120
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is a level i think you have to be careful. >> mr. bear. you got it right. >> stock has been really rangebound for six months. so to me the fact it got rejected right at 133 where it got rejected in april, where it got rejected in february is not a huge surprise for the largest market cap company on the planet. so expectations got really high. you had this recent rally that did outperform the market a little bit. and remember, this is a name that people feel very safe about owning. we know about the buyback. we know just that there's a lot of things firing here. but i guess the issue that i would have is this. is if we start seeing them missing expectations, remember, this is a settlement game, right? and everyone is universally bullish on it. if they start missing those expectations, they go into this s cycle for the iphone, maybe people are full up on these plaus pluses. maybe the demand was there for the 5 1/2-inch phone and now it's a 4.7-inch game globally and maybe those asbs start coming down during this cycle. so i don't think it's a no-brainer here. and i think one other issue here, people, and let's just see
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how much stock they bought back and how much cash they generated. i haven't seen the whole release yet. but they don't have enough cash on shore to fund that buyback. they're going to continue to kind of take debt out here. >> let's get some more on that analysis. let's bring in fbr capital managing director dan ives. he's got a $189 price target on the stock. dan, what did you make of the quarter? does it change -- you're very bullish on the street. does it change your thesis at all? >> you have to call it like it is. this is definitely a bit of a step back. in terms of a softer number, i mean, 47 1/2, that whisper street was really looking for 49. china group 100% plus. but just like you guys said, the guidance is really the issue. and the thing for the street here is are they being conservative or is this the start of this softer period as we get into the 6x later this year? i think at this point it's a little bit of an overreaction in terms of knee-jerk. we're still bullish on the china, on the iphone story. but you definitely now start to, you know, look at it a little closer in terms of what type of
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numbers we're going to see over the next few quarters as it does come down to hardware, it comes down to iphone 6. what those legs look like. and really the watch and everything else is tangential at this point. and this is definitely now a much more prove me stock going into the next quarter or two. >> all right, dan. get back on the red phone. we'll check in with you a little later on. we do are another earnings mover and this time we have to get to it. microsoft. it is falling on its earnings release. kayla tauschi is live at the new york stock exchange with a breakdown on the report. kayla. >> melissa, from the face of it it would look like a beat with flying colors. 62 cents per shares on $22.2 billion in revenue. both of those numbers better than the street expected. but remember when microsoft telegraphed it would take a big writedown on that nokia acquisition. it was a $7.6 billion writedown. there was also a restructuring charge. but what resulted was an $8.4 billion charge this quarter resulting in microsoft's biggest quarterly loss as a company
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really. and even though analysts had written that off as a one-time item it still was somewhat surprising how wide that was. but let's take a look at some of the fundamentals of this company. ceo sattia nadela likes to break it down as cloud, window, and devices. if you look at the cloud there are some bright spots. now that cloud unit is on track for an annualized revenue run rate of $8 billion. when we heard last quarter was $6.3 billion. so that is still a huge area of growth for the company. commercial cloud revenues up 88%. that's something that's going to get a lot of attention, even though it didn't hit those triple-digit growth revenue numbers like the company has seen in the past. windows oem, revenue there declined 22%. and while there was some expectation that revenue would decline, there was a thought it would really trace pc shipment declines, and that ended up being a little bit bigger than
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analysts had expected. also, commercial licensing saw currency impact and demand there was weaker as well. finally, on devices, actually a surprisingly positive story on the device front. surface revenues up 117%. xbox revenues up 27%. and remember the lumia? the lumia shipped 2.6 million more units this quarter than it did previously. so certainly moving in the right direction for devices. but of course, melissa, the two biggest points that will be focused on on the conference call which starts at 5:30 eastern time will be how much, if anything, is the company going to make off windows 10, which comes out later this month. can the company manage its costs going forward as it continues this transformation? back to you. >> thanks so much. kayla tausche. the cloud was a big headline in terms of the run rate. much better than the 6 billion they posted most recently. in terms of windows, it's actually out next week.
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and there's going to be a new revenue recognition. they're going to do it over every year as opposed to -- sorry, lump sum as opposed to -- >> it's interesting. almost $400 billion market cap company. this is an extraordinarily volatile stock. in the end of may the stock went from 40 to 49 1/2, basically in a straight line over a few days. this move down now to 45 or so is a 50% retracement of that range. we traded down here in the beginning of july. i think you trade it against these levels. to me that's sort of the takeaway of the stock. i'm surprised at how volatile it's been over the last six months. but if you're looking at an entry level 45 is actually it. >> i just want to clarify in case i wasn't clear. the revenue recognition is going from lump sum to overt course of years. which for other software companies that has caused a little bit of a disconnect when it comes to the stock and the volatility. >> the stock since november has traded between 50 and 40 and right now in the after market it's at 45 in the mid-point of the range. it's really important to remember that there's also --
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yeah, these are catalysts. windows 10 is going to be a catalyst. continued progress on the transition to office 365. but here's the thing. if this is a surprise to you that the stock is down a couple bucks in the after-market, given what we know about the pc supply chain from seagate, amd, micron, you're just kind of missing out -- >> why wasn't that in the price? >> because investors got a little geeked up, tim. it's to the point we were talking about last night. people were buying things willy-nilly on what they thought was just another v reversal over some macro issue in the last couple weeks. and there's no reason why microsoft should have rallied from 44 to almost 48 given the fundamentals. >> all right. again, the conference call for microsoft will get under way in 18 minutes. meantime a lot of other movers. yahoo! still lower in the after-hours session. we'll have the latest headlines from marissa mayer hechl. plus instant analysis on the stock in the after-hours session. you see it there down 1 1/2%. and it's not just apple, microsoft and yahoo!. we're also watching chipotle and gopro. make something wild moves. both those calls well under way. the headlines you need to hear
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before tomorrow's open. much more "fast money." team coverage on the biggest night in tech when we come right back. in the us, three in ten college students drop out. but how can you spot who's at risk? the one who lives far from campus? the one who works the night shift? the one with new responsibilities? one thing can't tell you, but the right combination can. universities are using ibm analytics to understand pressures in and out of the classroom- some expect to cut dropout rates by twenty-five percent.
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welcome back to "fast
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money." i'm morgan brennan with this earnings alert. chipotle beating on earnings by a penny with revenue largely in line. however, comp store sales were 4.3% for the quarter. that was weaker than expected. so a reason for those weaker comp sales. the company's pork shortage after it cut ties with a supplier that didn't meet standards. the company saying 40% of restaurants are still temporarily without carnitas. on the call executives saying they found a new supplier and will be bringing pork back on a market by market basis. expects to make up any lost sales tied to this outage. company also saying it sees slightly better sales in july and that's tied to the price increase we've seen on steak and barbacoa. no resistance to those price increases so far. executives say. those 40% of restaurants haven't seen those price increases and it's mainly the ones without carnitas. we haven't had any bounceback from carn imt zas in guidance. the mexican chain continuing to expect low to mid single-digit comp sales for 2015.
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however, after plunging nearly 7% initially in afterhours trading following the numbers now that we're getting these headlines from the conference call chipotle is trading ever so slightly higher. melissa, back over to you. >> thanks so much, morgan brennan. guy, maybe the bounceback in the stock is because we understand now that the guidance is x carnit sachlt as. but with carnizas maybe there's -- >> tim was on air right after the closing bell this stock was printing 620 and change on its way to 600. 50 down, 50 back up. >> sure. >> $100, effectively. i don't know what to make of it because valuationwise it's a pretty expensive stock. you would have thought given this quarter, given what we've seen in other names would have gotten punished and it's not so i'm not sure what to make of it. >> in light of everything else, microsoft, apple, you'd think this would be down just on market sentiment. but i don't know. i wouldn't touch it here. too expensive. >> let's move on to yahoo!. shares trading lower in the
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after-hours session. cnbc's julia boorstin is monitoring the call. julia. >> that's right. mixed results on earnings and guidance for the third quarter that's lower than expected. marissa mayer kicking off the earnings call just a few minutes ago, calling q2 a "good quarter," saying she's pleased with momentum in the display ad business in particular and as for the alibaba spinoff she says they continue to work to complete the spinoff by q4 of this year which they call abaco holdings and they will provide some more details. mayer also talked about how she's focused on shifting employees to growth businesses, saying the total number of employees is down 13% year over year and down 31% since she started. another bright spot mayer highlighted is the fact that search clicks are up 13% and the price per click is up 4%. i'll be back with a little more from the call later on in the show. >> thank you very much, julia boorstin. tim seymour, out of all these earnings tonight you had said earlier in the green room you thought yahoo! was the most
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interesting. you are a holder, correct? >> the company that has the most opportunity to actually trade out of this range. we all know that some of the parts make this thing very cheap. we also know that as we said yesterday if the sum of the parts include alibaba and a tax-free spinoff which no one really knows how they're going to do it, okay, it's complicated. but any growth in their core business, which is priced negatively right now will rocket the stock. if you look at the ad formats, the video, what's going on in native, what's going on in social, they're making a move. tumblr's going to make $100 million in revenue. it's a company that i know, there's nothing terribly sexy in the core business but it's priced negatively. the street is very negative. look at this. going into this number look at what happened to this stock. it had nowhere to go. to me when i look at stocks that have catalysts to going significantly higher and because they're underpriced this is one. >> but the thing is that's the heart -- i mean the hard money is to get the core business, which has been deteriorating for quarters and quarters to turn around. the easy money would be the tax-free spinoff, which we don't know the tax treatment of and alibaba. and that share price is depressed because of what's going on in china.
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>> and they don't have a prayer of turning around their core business. they hadn't shown any signs they're able to do it -- marissa may mayer's been on the job for years. it's all been about alibaba. for every dollar alibaba moves it's still 40 cents in yahoo!. so when you think about when's that spin we need to know when that's going to happen that's when people start to get focused on it -- >> tax treatment on the spin. >> that's true. and let's not forget this. september 18th it's going to be the one-year anniversary of the alibaba. 1.4 billion shares are coming off lock. it's a massive amount of supply. at a time when the chinese equity market is unhinged. this thing trades over year but a will the of the adrs are trading crazy-like. so to me i think it's really all about alibaba until we have the tax treatment. >> up next the gopro call just about halfway through. the stock is volatile in the
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after-hours session now down about half a err percent. we'll hear from ceo nick woodman on the quarter and give you instant reaction to the move ahead of tomorrow's open. in the meantime a very special and familiar voice who's going to tell us what else is coming up on "fast." >> hi. i'm the voice of siri and here's what's coming up on "fast." microsoft's out with results. and since cortana isn't here i'll break it down for you. and later we'll be hearing from my master, tim cook, on what drove the quarter and what we can expect in his own words. >> announcer: hey, siri, are you trying to steal my job? >> i might be. so you'd better step it up. more "fast money" after this. t . t . but only one attempt to master depositing checks at chase atms. technology designed for you. so you can easily master the way you bank.
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welcome back to "fast money." check out what's happening with gopro shares volatile after beating on top and bottom lines. the company's conference call is under way right now. i have been listening to what's been happening on the phone call and it's interesting because founder and ceo nick woodman's talking a little bit about what his aspirations, his dreams, his visions are for the company and just how big it can get into people's lives and homes. he talked about the push we've seen by companies like facebook and google to get into virtual reality. here's what he said moments ago. >> with our recent acquisition of vr content enabling software and our continuing development of spherical capture device wez believe gopro is exceptionally well positioned for the virtual
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reality movement. as leaders such as google, facebook, and microsoft seek to establish vr as a media platform of the future, all are looking to gopro to enable compelling content, to drive consumer interest and engagement. >> now, remember, this is all about nick woodman and the company trying to become more than just a commoditized consumer electronics company. they want to become more about content and everything else in this ecosystem in the future. remember, the stock has been volatile after hours. as you can see there, it's seen both negative, deep negative territory, just to get back to maybe flat on the session. and of course this stock, melissa, remember, last october 98 bucks a share. back in march it was around $37 per share. and now it trades to do 62 today. it's been a roller coaster ride for sure. back over to you, guys. >> just to be clear, no guidance yet? >> no, we have not heard anything just yet. but again, you've got jack lazard, the cfo, tony bates the president and nick woodman kind of all present in some way, shape, and form in this call. >> dom chu, thanks so much. so far woodman giving his vision of the company.
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no guidance yet, although michael factor of wedbush writes us and says usually the guidance does come on the call and he expects the stock would trade higher even -- >> in the stock's defense the stock rallied 20% into these numbers. it's trading at 70 times earnings. so if you you believe it's a hardware company you sell it here and you sell it because they only grew 7% sequentially quarter over quarter even though 6% up on the year. he's talking about virtual reality. he's talking about being a media company. these are things the company is not right now. if you want to pay for that you can do that. but i tell what you, this is a company where a lot of expectations are baked in. >> don't we want the visionary ceo? i mean, isn't that part of the allure of gopro? >> i think some people do and some people don't. if you think -- now, listen, this might become a commoditized product at some point. that's the argument tim will make. but it wasn't this quarter because operating margins were 15.7% and the street was looking for about 13. so their margins are improving. i think you can stay with this name. listen, it's a volatile stock. we got it right, got it wrong. getting it right right now. i still think there are some tailwinds to the name. i know why it sold off in the
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after hours. people to tim's point got a huge gain in the stock over the last couple of weeks. but i do think it opens higher tomorrow. >> keep in mind that we are waiting for guidance still. watch also ambarella. ambarella is pulling back in the after hours session. they are of course a supplier to gopro. as well as many others, including drone makers. interesting how the stories are so linked and yet ambarella, not all the eggs are in the gopro basket there. >> ambarella is pretty diversified. mel, you and i have gone back and forth on this. i have to think they were on a short list given their exposures away from pcs, more industrial, as a takeover candidate. i'm with tim on the gopro thing. i don't think you pay for what you're paying for it right here. and i don't like the talk about vr and drones and all this sort of stuff. i don't think it's exciting. and ultimately i think it's important to remember. you will have flip camera here at some point in the next couple years. >> again with the bold prediction. as we head to break here's a look at apple. and we are still seeing the softness in the afterhours session down 7 1/2%. just off of afterhours session lows. but after that 120 mark essentially.
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we'll also look at the apple suppliers plunging in sympathy in the afterhours. and of course we'll hear from apple's ceo tim cook with his take on apple's quarter right after this.
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welcome back to "fast money." it is tech mania here as we dig through some of the biggest reports. and it's not looking pretty right now. here's where we stand right now. apple moving lower by about 7% despite posting a beat. its conference call is halfway through. we'll hear from tim cook coming up. plus microsoft falling after hours despite beating on the top and the bottom line. that conference call is just kicking off right now. we'll bring you the headlines as they roll in. and a mixed report for yahoo!. the stock is tumbling on its light third quarter guidance. can marissa mayer convince the street its turnaround plan is on track? we'll hear from her next. we start off here with apple tanking in the after hours. cnbc's josh lipton monitoring the call in cupertino. he's got the highlights. hi, josh. zbll, me zbll. >> well, melissa, we talked about macs, imtpads, even watches. but at the end of the day apple is an iphone company. that's the prubt that accounts for the gross majority of that company's sales. here's what ceo tim cook had to say on the conference call about iphone's performance in this quarter. >> we had another stellar
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quarter for iphones. establishing a new june quarter record. iphone unit sales grew 35%, which is almost three times the rate of growth of the smartphone market overall, and we gained share in all of our geographic segments. >> reporter: now, cook also pointing to surveys showing the high rates of customer satisfaction for the iphone, the high rates of iphone owners who want to buy a new phone. and apple did ship 47.5 million iphones in the quarter. that was a more than 30% jump year over year. of course that was also basically in line with what the street had been looking for. i'm going to get back on the call, melissa, bring you more headlines as they come. >> thanks so much, josh lipton. let's bring back fbr capital's dan ives. dan, i know you're on the conference call, you're listening in. in terms of the iphone upgrade cycle a lot of analysts made that the crux of their bull case for apple. are you doubting the strength of that story? >> yeah, i think right now there's a game of high-stakes poker going on even on the conference call where the street's trying to understand
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are they being conservative? is this the start of it? or are there bigger eggs to this iphone 6 product cycle especially in china? we believe it's a transition story that's going on here into potentially 6x later this year. sxumtly, look, they are the gold standard of technology. they get held to a higher standard. it's a b, b-minus quarter. the street needed an a quarter. and look, guys expect mike trout to hit a home run every time he's at-bat. he's sometimes going to have a single or double. that's whapd happened with apple this quarter. and that's what they're trying to communicate to the street on the quarter about the iphone upgrade cycle. >> for this quarter that they just reported china was extremely strong. is that a risk to the down side in the next quarter? because if there is any sort of whiff of a china slowdown it wouldn't have happened in the quarter they reported today. it would happen in the current quarter. >> it's a great point. and that's really fighting a shadow at this point because it's going to be a prove me situation given some of the headwinds we've seen in china. nothing obviously we've seen this quarter and everything
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they're saying, they continue to see that as really a core strength over the next few quarters. we believe it's a $150 billion market opportunity, 5% pay in trade today. iphone 6 pluses are selling like hotcakes. you saw that in the quarter. but now apple becomes a prove me. the multiple, you'll see it compressed, and now the street's going to -- you see more skeptics out there, especially going into the next few quarters. and that's what they're trying to get through on the conference call, trying to show the light at the end of this transition period. >> how do you stick with an outperform rating on a prove me stock? >> i view it as this is a name when i look out to the next year or two, i view it as one that is really going to own consumer technology, not just on the iphone 6 but as well as other streaming areas and wearables and when we look in 2017. at nine times ex cash i continue to view this, i'm going to an island for two, three years i'd own apple all day long. and this doesn't change our thesis. continues to be bullish here. i view it as a small step back
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but ultimately real bullish on apple given that iphone 6 and 6s upgrade cycle. >> all right, dan, we'll let you jump back onto the red phone. karen, what's your take on what we know so far from apple? >> mild disappointment. i really do think, though, that it's not -- a lot of times we see super high-flying multiple stocks. they miss a little and you get a big reaction, you get a big multiple compression. i don't think that should really be happening here. the stock ran up a lot. we were basically back to where we were ten days ago or so, two weeks ago. as i said, 115 i would be a buyer. >> 115 is your magic level. we want to take a look at some of the apple supplier stocks taking a hit also on apple's earnings. take a look at the rights of cirrus, qualcomm which reports i believe tomorrow, skyworks, nxp all down in the after-hours session. dan nathan, are you concerned about this trade? this is a sector that's already been under pressure year to date and then throw in china and that's another leg lower. >> i think a lot of component suppliers should be down. apple just put up good gross margin numbers.
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mayor they are squeezing their suppliers a little bit. i like karen's range a little bit. 133 to 115. i don't think you're going to see, barring a market breakdown, a massive breakdown this year, i don't think you're going to see this stock trading much belohw 1 110 over the next couple months. i think you'll continue to see the stock being rangebound until we have evidence this s cycle is really on and then if you don't see a slowdown in the next quarter in china then yeah, it's good to go. i mean, listen, they have $200 billion in cash here. it's all good in the hood. i just say there's no bubble in valuation. it's just been in sentiment. so i think a little negative sentiment can help the stock here. >> we've been showing apple's chart lower in the afterhours session all session long. microsoft, yahoo! also lower. no surprise, the qs we were watching very closely after the nasdaq eked out yet another record close just the other day. we are seeing some softness in the after-hours session as we progress here meantime, we do have some headlines out of gopro, so let's get to dom chu in the newsroom. dom. >> melissa, you were asking earlier about the guidance and
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they now have provide td and that's the reason why you can see the stock has now reversed its losses up by about 3% on 4 1/2 million shares of trading volume. i'll bring you the headline numbers. right now they're saying that q3 sales will be between 430 to $445 million. the average analyst estimate was around $401 million. so a beat there. also earnings per share expected to come in at 29 to 32 cents per share for q3. analyst estimates were for 22 cents per share. so we're beat there as well. also on gross margins, profit margins for q3, they're estimating about 46% gross margins plus or minus half a percent. the average analyst estimate was for 44.6% in terms of gross margins. so a trifecta for third quarter forecasts that's been hit here. the shares have reversed their losses. they're up by 3 1/2%. gopro also saying they see
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increased revenue across all channels and geographic regions with particular strength in emerging -- europe, middle east, and africa and apac, or asia pacific regions for q3 on a year-over-year basis. this all part of the conference call. so again, that's the reason why you're seeing those shares rally. they were down 6%, 7% at one point. back over to you. >> thank you, dom chu. mike factor at wedbush called this correctly. >> shouldn't be terribly surprised about the international. this is exactly what these guys are doing. and as it relates to china they actually hit the realized sales as they sell into the channel. they might be frontloading a little bit of that. but look, it was a very good number. get back down to is this company worth this multiple? i say no. >> still ahead we're watching the basket of tech earnings that just came out. what it means for tech stocks tomorrow. that's next. plus a very special guest on the night of apple earnings. and you will definitely, definitely recognize her voice. the woman behind siri is here to bring us the headlines from the report. much more "fast money" straight ahead. i'm only in my 60's.
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call now to request your free decision guide. and learn more about the kinds of plans that will be here for you now -- and down the road. i have a lifetime of experience. so i know how important that is. welcome back to "fast money." i'm julia boorstin with an update on yahoo!'s earnings call. ceo marissa mayer saying yahoo!'s transformation is well under way, talking about managing yahoo!'s expenses while working to drive its growth. she focused in on two key areas -- mobile and search. saying mobile revenues hit a $1 billion annualized gap run rate with mobile now contributing 22%
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of yahoo!'s traffic-driven revenue. as for search mayer says the company is investing for long-term growth through partnerships such as those with oracle and mozilla. >> both are large search deals that we believe will enhance and stabilize our market share but they obviously run at a lower margin than our organic traffic. as we innovate in search on both mobile and pc, these types of deals are important distribution and marketing vehicles for our search products. they place our enhanced search in front of millions of users and help keep our search marketplace vibrant. >> as for another one of mayer's mavens, her areas of focus, social, she says that the company's exploring what she called innovative yet thoughtful monetization solutions for tumb tumblr, tumblr being one of her billion-dollar acquisitions. mayer says they have seen what she called solid revenue growth with tumblr. and as for the planned alibaba spinoff, the company says all is on schedule for that to happen in q4. and for yahoo! japan yahoo! says
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they've met with a number of advisers to find a solution there that generates the most shareholder value. the qu & a session is going on now. the stock trading down half a percent. we certainly expect to hear more questions about the alibaba spinoff. >> for more on yahoo! let's get to neil doshi with mizuho usa. great to have you with us. i feel like the three legs of the yahoo! story are in jeopardy at this point. the core business continues to show signs of deterioration. we've got the tax-free spinoff which may not be tax-free after all. and the baba assets which have declined significantly because of the meltdown in china. what's left here? >> yes. i'd probably disagree with you on your first premise. i do think there's signs of growth on the core business. display grew 15%. strongest growth we've seen in about five years. search continues to grow. you know, the issue is really around spend and margins. and can they really get the margins to be in line with their revenue run rate. but i do agree, you know, there is still a big looming cloud in
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terms of the alibaba spin, can they get it tax-free or not. and also what can they do on the japan front? they talked about getting some sort of -- some meetings and making some progress there but we still don't really know what they can do on that front. >> so what's your calculus now on what the stock should be worth in terms of the core business, whether or not you're ghaeth for free given the massive decline we've seen in alibaba shares? >> yeah. valuation here is still compelling. baba plus yahoo! japan plus cash is about $40. so the stock is basically -- investors are giving this negative value. we think with even modest growth foir times ebidta which is less than traditional media companies trade at the stock should be worth $50 or $51. we do think if they can continue to show sustained growth in the core business this stock can rip even higher. i thought q2 was pretty good. the guide was a little bit disappointing.
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we'll see. this is still a work in progress story. i give the management team about 12 months. if they can't figure out how to turn this business around my guess is the chairman will be looking for a new management team. >> all right, neil, great to speak with you. thank you. rip higher. >> he said rip. i said rocket on the core business. the other part about this everybody talks about the tax-free spinoff may not be tax-free. it's priced without any tax-free it's a 54 sum of the parts. if it's tax-free $71. again, you have to do the numbers. no one is pricing in tax-free right now. therefore, it's even cheaper than you think. >> wait. i don't know. i feel like people are fairly optimistic on the tax situation. i feel like there's -- the whole crux of what the rest of the business is worth is so dependent on that. more than anything else. >> but you can't value it right now in a tax-free scenario. when people are talking about sum of the parts they're talking about the stake hold off taxed at 33% and the cash that's held offshore essentially taxed at 33%. the upside, the bull case scenario -- >> if it's tax-free. >> the current value is $54 if
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you listen to what neil said. i don't know what his final number was. he said 40 for the assets. he said the core business was priced negatively. if you get a tax-free spinoff a lot of analysts then have these numbers somewhere dm 65 to 75. that's where effectively this imputes all the way back to market cap. and then you have a smaller market cap company with a lot more cash to do a lot of different things. >> you disagree. >> i do. i mean, i don't know. i guess i think that the street is actually valuing it a lot closer to what the underlying is, i.e. no tax shield. >> how can they do that? >> i think it's a mistake. >> then the stock's worth, you know, 30 right now. anyway. i don't think that's what's happening. >> give me a number. >> $35 is where it spent most of the time formulating a base in early 2014. it feels as if that's where it wants to trade down to. >> i'd also buy it at 35 bucks. >> giddy up. >> still ahead microsoft falling 3% as its conference call is well under way right now. we'll hear from microsoft ceo satya nadella about what the street is missing right after
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the break.
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microsoft down on earnings. that conference call under way. let's get to cnbc's kayla tausche and the highlights from the call. kayla.
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>> well, melissa, as you can see, the stock is coming back if ever so slightly as that conference call gets under way. ceo satya nadella kicking off the call. we are still in prepared remarks. he just handed it over to cfo amy hood. but interestingly he spent the bulk of his remarks talking about the prospective growth of windows 10. he described it as really the unifying factor coming to the microsoft ecosystem. he starts talking about how the pc itself as we know has been under pressure but windows 10 will return windows overall to growth. he talks about how it will unify xbox, it will unify search, bing will be powering cortana and that the entire microsoft ecosystem will benefit from windows 10. amy hood, the cfo, is just going into detail of those financial metrics. she talks about particularly the impact that a strengthening dollar had yet again on microsoft's overall performance
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overseas as bookings became more expensive for its core products. i'm going to go back and listen in to what she says because outlook for the business going forward as we begin microsoft's new fiscal year, especially operating expenses, will be key. back to you. >> kayla tausche, thank you. for more on microsoft let's bring back fbr capital markets' dan ives. you're a pretty busy guy today toggling between the two calls. but in terms of microsoft do you agree with nadella's assertion that windows 10 could actually be sort of the holy grail for the company? >> yeah, there's a renaissance of growth going on. nadella's really trying to shift this toward the cloud. now you finally have that product cycle with win 10. i think this is a knee-jerk reaction that we're seeing on the quarter, a slight beat on top, slight beat on bottom. now as we go into next year you can see multiple expanding on the optimism on windows 10. and on large cap tech this is the only guy relative to ibm, emc, the large cap traditional tech players, that successfully move into the cloud. i view this as a step in the
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right direction. i think this will be short-lived with optimism. nadella's definitely striking a positive tone on the call. >> i'll let you hop back on to either apple or microsoft, dan. your choice here. in terms of technology, the trade tomorrow, we had mentioned earlier if you take a look at the qs in the after hours session you are seeing pressure, no surprise on the qs, given the move lower, sharply lower in apple shares, also microsoft, yahoo!'s no help. what are we in for tomorrow, guy? >> i think apple will hold that july 9th level, 119 and change. i think microsoft will not get through $45. i think that's a 50% retracement. i don't know about -- i don't know if you see margin expansion p. i don't know if the multiple's going to expand. but i do think microsoft gets a pass on this quarter. you i don't think it was a disaster. you buy it here. i think gopro continues to rally. i don't know what it means for the broader market but those three stocks specifically that's how they trade. >> how about more broadly the setup going into some of the bigger earnings next week? i'm thinking about facebook where there are a lot of expectations going into this. >> that stock just went up 10%
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in a straight line. $275 billion-dollar market cap. all of a sudden the company that's supposed to have $17 billion in sales this yeah, that's the one next week. i've got to tell you, i think google and netflix, those moves last week did a disservice for technology investors because i think people got really geekd up. they thought it was going to be just good news, was going to be massively rewarded. facebook's going to touch 100. then your guess as good as mine. if that thing is priced for perfection, that thing is very dangerous to me up here. >> any top line growth was rewarded in spades. if you look at the nasdaq coming into today, rsi, relative strength indicator giving you a sense of where the momentum, 78 to 80. that is way overbought for an entire index. so that's before these numbers today. 5200 major resistance. probably back to 500 on the nasdaq. >> does this make you a little nervous, karen, in terms of the spate of earnings we got after the bell? >> a little bit. i agree with dan on the facebook. i think the bar has been raised and it's always harder to go in. this stock's up on no news, really, except google. and youtube. good numbers.
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so you know, it's going to be hard for them. >> coming up, an unusual recap of apple earnings. plus a final look at all the big afterhours movers right after the break. more "fast money" straight ahead after the break. i've got a list of the stocks best set to profit. plus the two takeaways about net flix you need to know now that many investors are missing. "mad money" is next! i called for help as soon as i saw her. i found her wandering miles from home. when the phone rang at 5am, i knew it was about mom. i see how hard it's been on her at work and i want to help. for the 5 million americans living with alzheimer's, and millions more who feel its effects. let's walk together to make an even bigger impact and end alzheimer's for good. find your walk near you at alz.org/walk.
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welcome back to "fast money." check out shares of apple. they're still under pressure after its earning report. to wrap up some of the biggest headlines from apple's earnings we have a very special guest. it's siri, susan bennett. the voice of siri is with us from atlanta. so siri, take it away. >> apple earnings beat on the top and bottom line. but the stock falling on weak q3 guidance. apple's cash pile breaks above $200 billion for the first time. and apple's gross margin came in at 39.7%. >> that was fantastic. >> susan, thanks so much. >> awesome. >> that was unbelievable. i don't know if i could recognize her voice without seeing it on my phone. but our thanks to you, susan bennett. the voice of siri joining us from atlanta. >> i tell you, by the way, you know what to do when you have an analyst on the other side of the tv screen. i don't know what to do with siri. >> what's your most commonly asked question? >> nobody on this desk uses
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siri. >> i do. and you get some very funny things, actually. >> guy doesn't know what siri is. >> the questions tim would ask siri are probably not allowed on air. >> anyway. >> just quickly, on apple what level are you watching tomorrow? >> 119. and whatever that low in july, 119 and change. we're a little higher now. >> how about you? >> again, probably 110. i mean, we've talked about this on the desk but i don't think you do anything different if you own the stock today. there was nothing here that told me this stock is any different today than yesterday. >> and you say 115 is your magic level. >> 115. that's my magic level. magic. >> mr. bear. are you still bearish? >> got a little excited. i like -- >> where did the sentiment come back to now? >> i think you're going to see the stock probably down to 110 at some point on the balance of the year and i think the stock gets bought there. i think the company buys it hand over fist there. i think there's an embedded put in this stock and that's the company. >> it is time now for instead of final trades tonight we're going to do final earnings grades. how did these companies do?
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and of course a lot of them are down in the afterhours session. tim seymour kick, it off. >> this is a pretty cool exercise. i'm giving yahoo! a b-plus and it's because i do think that the core business is growing. tumblr, bright roll, these are all things they bought, they're actually starting to make some money. the core business is undervalued. the some of the of the parts we've been through this tonight, why wouldn't you own the stock? >> b-plus for yahoo!. dan. >> chipotle. i'd give it about a c here. i think a lot of it has to do with expectations. the stock had that huge bounce off of 600 over the last couple of weeks. now it traded back down there an hour ago. now it's back up. i think you take profits in this one. i think it's just too expensive and too much competition. >> so c for cmg. >> you got it. >> karen. >> apple. it was a b. it wasn't fantastic. it wasn't a disaster. priced down a little bit. i don't think it should be a very dramatic move. meh. for you a-minus was meh. >> guy adami. >> speaks volumes. gopro.
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nick woodman. this was a tough quarter. given the run-up in the stock they had to produce, their guidance was great. gopro, the stock goes higher from here. >> again watching the qs in the after hours under pressure after the spate of earnings disappointments. i'm melissa lee. sigh my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job is not just to entertain you, but to educate and teach. so call me at 1-800-643-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. in this stock market, butty is growth deep, anything more substantive than that and anything that represents, say, value qck

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