good luck. "closing bell" this hour. "fast money" coming up in moments. what's on tap? >> we've got the trade tracking like banks in 2007. >> yeah, i saw a little foreboding about this earlier. no further delay. got to get to this one. straight over to you guys. >> have a great weekend, kelly. thanks so much. live from the nasdaq marketsite overlooking new york city's times square i'm melissa lee. our traders on the decemberric tim seymour, david seaburg, brian kelly and guy adami. tonight on "fast" we're firing up the grill with two food stocks seeing smoking hot moves. new high from mcdonald's and double-digit percent gain from shake shack. which is the better fast casual buy? plus big oil big problems the one chart that says oil stocks could be going the way of the banks in 2007. it is a scary chart. so get ready. but first through the storm that was brewing in the market today it wasn't stocks. oil seeing its worth month since the financial crisis. gold seeing its worst month in more than two years. bonds meantime rallying sharply. with all this turmoil can you

continue to hide out in stocks? brian kelly, what do you make of this? >> well, what's happened over the last month or actually couple of months here is you've seen a tremendous amount of volatility in the commodity space, in foreign currency and hasn't translated into the u.s. equity market. i do think ultimately when you see oil going down like this and the intraday reversal today in the dollar to me is notable because that shows there's the big carry trade that's being unwind as commodities come down. ultimately that will hurt u.s. stocks. >> we have seen elevated levels, though, of volatility in the oil markets and the currency markets for quite some time and the markets are still very close to record highs. granted they've had their ups and downs but still right now close to record highs. what happened to that theory that eventually that volatility will creep in? >> hasn't yet. >> not yet. >> i mean, we had the vix hover around 12 again. it's pretty unbelievable the s&p is still at these levels. it leads me to believe once again, although i don't think the economy's any great shakes. it means the s&p's probably going to take another shot at that 2135 level.

we've done it without the transports. clearly without energy. today we have exxonmobil making a three or four-year low. we're doing it with health care. to a certain extent financials. i still think the s&p can grind higher from here despite the move in the bond market. >> health care. want to ask you about that because 22% of health care is biotech and biotech in the past couple days with gilead and amgen has been great but if you take a longer look at the chart it's had some trouble. >> like any other sector it'ses have and have nots. the bigger names are definitely going to stay in play and favor. the growth rates are fine. everything from a pipeline perspective is intact. you look at the celgenes, the gileads, the amgens, the biogens, they're all going to stay at these levels and probably continue to move higher. >> so not a problem for health care at all. >> it's not a problem for the larger safer names. again, bottom of the barrel just like in energy it's an issue. very big issue for them. >> i tell you what. i kind of agree with what i think guy is saying. the pain trade could be higher even though the volatility seems to be up there. i would actually argue the volatility has crept its way in. we had a couple moments here where we were at 16 on the vix.

that really is the level. yet two or three days, 13%, 14% vol moves. but if you think about thematically, investors are very thematic right now and health care and biotech, nothing is changing. the demographics in this country tell you that health care is going to be a very important part and the hospital stocks continue to move and the consolidation. i think when you look at oil and you look at commodities specifically it's easy to argue that there are sector-specific things going on. i know people want to impute china on it. i don't think you can. i think this is about supply. i think this is about a case where oil prices are coming down. unfortunately, the costs of oil are not coming down fast enough. >> so it's month end and now we have an opportunity to take a look at how sectors have done for the month. the best-performing sector this month, utilities. >> that's a bond trade. and bonds have done very well. and if oil continues to go lower bonds will even do better. >> is this telling us to be careful in the stock? >> listen, you could have said that for the last five years as bonds go higher, as utilities go higher, be careful in stocks,

and it hasn't worked yet. they clearly are the safe haven areas. i think what bonds are telling you is we're going to have low inflation, perhaps a deflationary, a disinflationary shock coming from commodities. that will be very good for the utility sector, very good for bonds and very good for higher-yielding stocks. look at something like a microsoft, 3% yield. it's doing quite well. >> just a few months ago we saw ten-year yields around 1.85. now around 2 1/4. i'm in b.k.'s camp. i think on this 2 1/4 level we're on the other side heading lower. russell still hangs in there. all these cross-currents. as long as the iwm 121 line in the sand yes i know we closed below it by a shade the last couple days but i still think that's where you have to look in terms of the broader market as long as iwm stays above 121 i think the s&p goes higher. >> let's talk about a sector that got slammed today and in the month of july. energy. oil. the commodity had its worst month since 2008.

according to the charts it could get a lot worse. oppenheimer's head of technical analysis ari wald is breaking down what it could mean for the markets over at the smartboard. what are you looking at? >> that's right, melissa it's been a tough day for energy, tough month. been a tough year for energy. but the chart suggests that the price could get much worse before it gets better. let's take a big picture view on the energy spidr ticker xle. chart going back to 2000. more recently energy has broken this 12-year uptrend. that's right. 12-year uptrend. has reversed lower. when we talk about breakdowns of this magnitude i think of financials in 2007. i think of technology in 2000. and here's the overlay. energy back at the peak in 2014. we lined it up with financials at their peak in 2007 and then the blue line we have technology, the xlk at the peak in 2000. of course this is a doomsday scenario. it does suggest that energy's

decline can get much worse at these early stages. here's what i care about. more recently we've taken out these q1 lows. while we're below, that the trend is lower. i think there are some shortable opportunities here. i would be under weight. stay away from these stocks. >> are you saying that we're going to see an unwind in energy stocks like the unwinds we saw in technology in the bubble and financials in the crisis? >> as it's shaping up right now, whether the decline gets as sharply down the 50% decline that we had in those other sectors remains to be seen. as it's concerned now, the energy spidr around $70. i think $60 is reasonable for that. it's going lower. the long-term trends are pointing lower. and we'll take it one step at a time. >> who thinks ari's nuts? who thinks ari's right? >> nuts is a strong word but i would argue, ari, we're in a place where we've got a perfect storm that is taking oil down and this is something that first of all opec could change overnight if they decide to come in and cut and they're only going to cut, by the way, if

they're not going to lose market share to do it, in other words other guys will come on board. i look at nasdaq back in the day. you had valuations and parabolic moves to the up side which were your ultimate to me technical setup in a blow-off top. we're down at a place where valuationsright integrateds, the best enp names with good balance sheet are quite attractive. even at their lows those nasdaq companies weren't making any money. i'm going to put a fundamental lens on this. i realize you're taking a technical tact here. >> i absolutely agree, tim, from that standpoint. i look at it from thes have and the have nots. you're going to have the winners and the losers. but the tech tape back in 1999 very different, completely different from what kim just described. there's also the fear element. the fear element is very important to game here. and i look at the financials. the financials were really dislocated because of fear. we don't have that fear here that's going to really push these to the down side in a much more aggressive way. >> so it's not a parallel situation necessarily but i want to get the trade for energy

stocks. exxonmobil trading at levels we have not seen since mid 2012 because the earnings were lousy. we had chevron out. earnings were lousy. conoco philips. jpmorgan says the dividend is in jeopardy. what's the trade? >> you stay in things that win. tesoro and valero, the refiners. numbers you have to remember. 95 tso. 65 vlo. as long as they stay above that you stay long those names. exxonmobil making north of $100 billion last year. 74 billion now. you've seen a commensurate movement in the stock price. granted i hear what tim is saying but it doesn't feel like a bottom's been put in those names yet. >> i think it's too early to try to bottom fish here but over the next let's call it 6 to 18 months the trade's going to be you buy the big integrated oils, exxonmobil, chevron and you short the enps. they're going to be flushed out, go out of business, exxonmobil and chevron's going to come in and buy these assets for pennies on the dollar. that's the longer picture trade. the short term you stay short oil, stay short xlp. >> ari, you want to go back just

quickly, are there stocks within this sector that look decent? >> i would go with the refiners, valero, tesoro, marathon petroleum. i understand the valuation argument. we know valuations are a very poor timing indicator but i think the really important theme here is the u.s. dollar. u.s. dollar if that continues to strengthen and it has reversed, a 30-year down trend, commodity prices like oil are in secular decline. they're going to remain pressured. these commodity stocks are going to remain pressured with it. at least on a relative basis these are not the stocks to own. >> all right, ari, thanks so much for joining us. have a great weekend. ari wald of oppenheimer. we have much more on potential dividend cuts in big oil later on this hour. up next, grilling up profits. other two fast food stocks seeing big gains but which is a better bet? fast casual battle. shack versus the golden arches next. plus will the magic kingdom come out on top when disney reports earnings next week? traders take their positions. and later spinning toward a healthy lifestyle or spinning out of control. soul cycle filing to go public after planet fitness last week but is the health craze going

too far too fast? much more "fast money" straight ahead. so you're a small business expert from at&t? yeah, give me a problem and i've got the solution. well, we have 30 years of customer records. our cloud can keep them safe and accessible anywhere. my drivers don't have time to fill out forms. tablets. keep them all digital. we're looking to double our deliveries. our fleet apps will find the fastest route. oh, and your boysenberyy apple scones smell about done. ahh, you're good. i like to bake. with at&t get up to $400 dollars in total savings on tools to manage your business.

shares of shake shack having their best day ever and soaring more than 12% day on the back of

the company's share lockup expiration and sticking with fast casual take a look at shares of mcdonald's. the stock hitting year-to-date and one-year highs above 100 bucks a day. it looks like investors are mclovin it after all. props to tim because you've been sticking by mcdonald's for a long time. >> it's nice that management on their call seemingly is stepping up the pace of change. it's not going to happen overnight. and the u.s. is still the most important market here. but if you think about operations, technology, things they can do that are working, we talked about technology, b.k.'s talked about technology as it relates to the fast food space and how it's pushing profitability. mcdonald's is getting there. if you look at $100 on the stock, this is a level that the stock runs into over and over again and fails. think we're in a different place. i think if i look at the sector i want to be in a risk reward with the guys that have a valuation upside, that have drivers and dividend yield. to me 100 you can own it. you want to buy it monday you don't have to. but i'm not playing for a trade here. this is after investment. i expect to own this stock for another two years. >> is there a trade in shake shack? >> yeah.

i think you own it on momentum. just purely as a momentum play in shake shack. it's broken out from the lows here. for me i think you can do the same thing if you look at mcdonald's. tim talked about 100. i think 104. if you look for that momentum you can look for a breakout above 104 as well. >> yesterday you talked about mcdonald's. >> because the price action has been good. i've been a non-believer. the last couple weeks since earnings which weren't spectacular but people starting to believe the turnaround story. deutsche bank gets a $120 price target and the trading camp and the b.k. camp above 105 i think is your breakout. north of 105 gets you that 120 level. we've failed there a number of times over the last few years. that's your bogey. >> moving on to earnings there are still some very big names left to report next week. kick it off with disney. also the best-performing stock in the dow this year out after the bell on tuesday. >> these guys have knocked the cover off the ball for the last six quarters or so. and despite the valuations which are 20% expensive to the s&p, 22 times 2016. they're growing into this valuation, by the way.

i think these guys are not going to disappoint. now, the cops are very difficult on the studio side but when you look at what's going on on the consumer products side, everything as it relates to "star wars" and the next quarters going to be very bullish. that's the place where people are very excited. this is a quarter where it sets up it could be disappointing. you don't need to trade it into the bill but this is a company until they disappoint me they've done everything right. parks, studio, consumer products. you name it. they're hitting it. networks. espn is a juggernaut. and to me it's just this is why these guys are able to reproduce these numbers. >> setup for disappointment? >> i think it's fine. i say i think it's absolutely fine going into the earnings. i'd stay long the stock. i don't have anything more to say on that one. >> next up tesla reporting wednesday after the bell. guy adami. >> listen, the sentiment was so negative when the stock was south of $200. i think that's as positive as it is now. we talked about 290 being a level. i think it failed there. we pointed that out. it's been sort of meandering around this 265 level. ubs just cut the stock to sell,

lowered their price target to 210. 225 is your level. i do think it's going to trade there wednesday after earnings. technically the stock is set up nicely and it's -- >> that's a 20% move you're saying. >> 225 from here is a 18% move. there's a chance you could see within a couple of days after earnings. >> couple of days after earnings. >> i can't argue with that, by the way. >> look at linkedin today. >> green mountain also out wednesday night. b.k. >> green mountain i would not expect much from them except for the hot that analysts and sentiment has been so weak on this stock they've reduced their estimates over the last year multiple times. now green mountain is back down around 70. that's a very big level. going all the way back to 2012. i would not short this name at all going into earnings. it sets up even if earnings are bad you can get a relief rally. if anything i'd be long going into earnings, expecting either a relief rally or some kind of a surprise. >> next up michael kors out

thursday morning before the bell. seaburg. >> kors last quarter they disappointed and the stock got hammered. their investor base shifted. it went from 50% momentum investor base and got basically cut in half. i look at kors and say next week there's expectations that they're going to take full-year guidance down. i think the streets already brought it down to the $4.30 level. i think the range the company's guided is really 4.40, 4.50. if they don't bring it down the stock could take off. the i think the investor base has shifted, you're looking at a much more value investor base right now. they're starting to look at the stock in a different way. i like kors. i'm not saying go out and buy it ahead of earnings, maybe wait for the numbers to come out, but i do think there's some value in the name. >> do you think there's value in the name? >> not a broken company. value not yet. but what david is saying is look, you have revalued the stock, first of all. they are growing internationally. this is one of these companies. their international growth is part of the reason they're so excited, china was one of them.

china one of the reasons it hasn't broken out. i traded the stock right after those numbers. my view was it wasn't a dead cat bounce but we needed to see something from the stock, we have a little best a pop, it needs a new catalyst, we need a couple quarters. i probably wouldn't jump in. >> would you rather? >> oh, i love this game. >> i know you do. >> kors or coach? because kors is trading on roughly double the p/e. maybe that's the position you want to do. >> kors has not bounced since that disastrous quarter. it makes me believe that maybe they want to take a run at that 2012 low. so if you ask i would rather -- >> i'm asking that. >> coach. >> coming up -- the one stock you need to watch for monday's open. in the meantime here's what else is coming up on "fast." >> these two men are locked in a heated battle for fitness supremacy. yes, our own b.k. is taking on

the iron man guy adami in a fitbit battle royal. but could the real winners be fitbit investors? and later in the hour -- ♪ i got 99 problems >> and big oil could be one. we'll tell you why some traders think a dividend cut is in the works. ahead on "fast."

fitbit soaring 60% since its first day of trading in june,

but the key test comes when it reports earnings next week, which allowed us the perfect opportunity to pit guy against b.k. we're always looking for an excuse. in a fitbit challenge. which trader really put their fitbit to use when not here on the desk? take a look. >> i'm assuming guy adami is fast asleep in his pajamas now. ♪ about to do a firecracker 5k. i'll take you along for the ride. ♪ ♪ >> hey, b.k. i know you've been work out all weekend, but let me tell you something. times square is where champions are made. ♪

♪ >> so did guy manage to outstep b.k. in the end? he did not. b.k. wins with more than 88,000 steps in only six days. >> he trounced you. it wasn't even close. >> 55,000 steps. >> i was spending some time on my couch. it was a big sports weekend, and i was watching the tube. >> b.k. tied it to his dog. >> very disappointing. i put my money on you. i owe seaburg money after the show. after his iron man last year. >> he told me he was going to train for this thing. >> he did. disappointing. >> you saw how he trained. >> disappointing. >> fitbit is just one of the many companies looking to cash

in on the health and fitness craze. spinning studio soul cycle announcing plans to go public. begging the question could there be a bubble brewing in fitness companies here? i don't know. what do you think? >> i think the fitness wellness craze is something that's only just begun in this country. i think the valuation's -- what would worry me more with something like fitbit is really about valuation and where to me the competition is outstanding. so the way i play this is through a nike, through an under armour, but nike is my play in that space. they are all in the devices but it's with the casual and the footwear that these guys guys are going. it's not reliant on china although the growth internationally is part of global fitness. this is working everywhere. >> and we don't have to talk just about fitbit and planet fitness. there's a whole organic craze that can be sort of folded in here as well. >> it's a huge trend. you look at food. it's really changing a lot of the sectors that we're dealing with. the food sector, the retail sector. i mean, across the board. so i look at under armour, i look at nike, and i agree with them and we agree with them at

cowan. i look at those two stocks and i say we've been well ahead of it on the athletic side and we believe there's going to be continued momentum there. i do believe it's a shake-up and i do not believe it's an overvaluation here. >> my preferred play in the space has been under armour but at 100 bucks it seems to me to be a big stretch tradingwise. i'd probably take a little bit off here. fitbit's fine. i don't see it as a stand-alone company. they're either going to be run out of the market via competition or somebody's going to buy them. but this is a bigger picture that's going on. you look at something like under armour where they can use these apps and use fitbit to sell more products. ? then you look at a garmin and apple with its iwatch. >> garmin's probably where fitbit's going to be a few years from now. garmin has seemingly become commoditized if you look at the stock. let's talk about fitbit. they report on august 5th i believe. huge day today. huge run. valuation is ridiculous. the short interest is ridiculous as well. i think you see a spike into earnings. i don't know what's going to happen post but i can see the stock printing 55 next week into earnings.

i think if you're long you pull the rip cord right there. >> did you pad the number of steps you had in your total because you were -- >> how did i pad? >> did you tie it to your dog or you paid your daughter to wear it? >> by the way, quick, we've got time, b.k. just signed up lake placid iron man. >> go beakers. you really need a fitbit now. >> get it going. >> keep abreast of what's going on with b.k.'s trading regimen. final trade. tim seymour. >> exxon reported today. capex cuts and a little more on buybacks. i think you've got a very important level at 79 to 80. i think it's going to hold this level. if not your rhys sak down to 72. over the course of 18 months you want to own this thing. >> sachlt eabs. >> zillow. letter z is going lower. it's going to 40 bucks over the next 12 months. it's a big -- big call out of cowan and i think in general that some growth is not accelerating the way it needs to to keep this multii am where it is. >> brian kelly. >> i think we could get a little bit of weakness in the dollar

potentially to hedge the long dollars. buy gdx for a counter trend rally. >> guy. >> pfizer drug for a number of reasons we're not going to get into. go ahead, mel. >> i just want to say we have a very special guest tonight. my mother, victoria, is here with her friends, miranda, tom, anthony, iris, daisy. so welcome. hi, mom. that does it for us here on "fast." see you back here monday at 5:00 for more "fast money." meantime, don't go anywhere. "options action" starts right after the break with another special guest, brian kelly. stay tuned. ♪ ♪ isn't it beautiful when things just come together? build a beautiful website with squarespace.

hey there. we're live at the nasdaq marketsite. and look what i found. two brians. brian kelly and brian sutland. welcome. it's like "brian's song" options style. while the brians and mike are getting ready here's what's coming up tonight. ♪ >> that's what some traders think could happen to big oil's lush dividends. and we'll tell you what it is that has investors so worried. ♪ when you wish upon a star why is this man smiling? because disney has earnings next week and some traders think it could be downright magical.