calculus there. and sponge bob losing his shirt. viacom just one of several media giants getting crushed in the digital age. it's friday august 7th, 2015. it says 215 but i know that's not true. and squawk box begins right now. ♪ >> live from new york where business never sleeps, this is squawk box. >> good morning, everybody. welcome to squawk box here on cnbc. i'm becky quick with joe kernen. andrew is off today. the count down to the jobs report is on. the labor department will be releasing the july employment data about 2.5 hours from now at 8:30 a.m. eastern time. here are the expectations. non-farm payrolls are expected to come in at 215,000. there are other estimates as high as 225,000. that would be closer to june's number of 223,000. as for the ploilt rate it is

expected to hold steady at 5.3% marking a seven year low. again the report will be released at 8:30 a.m. eastern time and it's one that the fed is watching very closely. the last jobs report before they try to decide if they're going to raise rates in september. >> welcome back. >> thank you. >> we talked a lot about those rates. we've seen lockhart say they're going to do it. we had powell on who said still data dependent but a lot of people swinging toward september. >> yeah, you called this awhile ago. >> well, wishful thinking that they -- quarter point, you know? you can do it. you can do it. it's not going to -- nothing is going to happen. you can do a quarter point. i'm going to talk about the markets now because we're going to focus on the jobs report and i decided that i'm kind of glad that we're cnbc and business news. i'm still thinking about what i saw last night, what i witnessed and i want to talk about it but i'm glad we can talk about real other stuff, you know what i

mean? >> it was fiery. >> it was rowdy. it was -- it was great for democracy on one hand and for the whole process but then again it was the knife fight, food fight that democrats wanted. on the one hand i was saying wow there's real talent up there and on the other hand i was saying this is like the star wars scene in the restaurant. what is it the cafe. >> the bar. >> yeah, all the freaks come in. so i was alternating between wow there's some real talent and what am i watching here. yeah, that. ♪ >> that music. but i'm glad. let's talk about the dow which are numbers and things that wrote need someone's twitter opinion to talk about just facts here because everyone in this age has an opinion and you know what they say, when everyone has an opinion, no one has an opinion or no one matters. it's been a rough ride for the dow which is currently in a six session losing streak and the

index is at its lowest level in six months. let's check out the futures at this hour. 16 points is not bad. it's been tough. you didn't miss anything on the upside becky. you didn't miss apple. they're talking about the media company lost 35 billion combined. apple lost like 100 billion from its highs. but it stabilize a little bit in recent sessions. we'll see whether this is, you know, another launching point where it goes higher or whether it does, you know, apple go down to a 104 level. there sappel as you can see it. yesterday got as low as 114. here's the european markets except for greece. all red this morning and asia i saw that -- now i look at shanghai, it's up about 2%. two and a quarter percent. we haven't, you know, when it's down big we talk about china.

when it's not we have other things we talk about. we go back to the fed. i don't know what causes the market to finally decide it. >> that's pretty interesting. >> i don't know what it says. i don't know whether it's the demand side or the supply side. if it's the supply side i can explain it. if it's a demand side it makes you nervous. >> the bigger issue is that it may be the supply side and it may be the supply side change forever. >> right. >> in terms of being much more efficient and much more able to get things out of the ground and a constant headwind. >> presales are plunging. not because they're ugly either. i saw a station wagon that didn't look quite as bad but tesla and people don't buy teslas to save money on gas. they buy them because they like them but even tesla we saw what happened yesterday. tesla had a problem the ten year

doesn't know whether to go up and down. if i knew what the fed was going to do i couldn't tell you whether it goes up or down based on that. if they start tightening. >> you think it goes down. >> possibly. do you? because that means the economy could slow and europe is still way below us. the most -- watching the debate and this is how i'll tie it, is backdrop is that we had six years of zero interest rates and we obstetrical still have a fed that isn't sure the economy is above stall speed. how is this so anemic that we don't know if we can stand a quarter point increase? it was a big part of the debate. >> it was part of what was talking about on stage last

night but it's part of the cnbc debate. >> and the high bar was set by -- i've never seen him -- i don't usually agree with a lot of stuff he says put he gave major kudos to the moderators at fox news. >> he said it was words he never thought he would rise. >> it's the grilling that you want. >> if you have questions about these candidates we want to know where they stand on things. >> the only thing disappointing is i don't think there's a single mainstream media entity that will give the same grilling to hillary clinton and bernie sanders. >> we'll see. >> fox isn't allowed to do them so fox won't be there and there's nobody on the other side. >> i think the stage was set last night and if you don't get that kind of an inquiz situation, i think voters will be left wondering. >> maybe it will be george grilling hilary. >> in case you missed it last night what we have been talking about all morning already. the gop kicking off one of many

debates. ten candidates kicking off the main stage of the event. john harwood joins us now from cleveland with the highlights and there were plenty of them john. >> there were plenty becky and you're right the fox news moderators did a good job of running a lively debate. they challenged the candidates. as a matter of fact from the very get-go of this debate, donald trump got challenged as to whether he would even stay in the republican party and guess what, donald trump said no, he wouldn't promise that. i think we got that clip teed up. let's play it. >> raise your hand now. raise your hand now if you won't make that pledge tonight. mr. trump? >> so, you saw the cat calls from the audience when donald trump said that. i've never seen that, somebody standing up before an audience of his own party and saying hey

i may leave if i don't win this race. that's donald trump and he was donald trump all night. you had some candidates, rand paul right after that moment went after him aggressive and said that's what is wrong. this is a guy hedging his bets. he tries to buy politicians. trump shrugged him off. jeb bush took a more polite tone and said his rhetoric was devicive and he said jeb bush is a gentleman. but we don't have time to mess around with tone we have to go and on the challenges with the economy donald trump was saying we don't need all of these politicians surrounding me on this stage. we need somebody with my characteristics. play that bite about donald trump and the debt. >> by the way, this country right now owes $19 trillion and they need somebody like me to straighten out that mess. >> so that is the core of donald trump's message. you have somebody like me. he was the push off point in the

afternoon debate as well when carly fiorina who won that by a long shot over the six other candidates on the race used her moment to go right after trump and the phone call that he got from bill clinton that was in the news yesterday. >> well, i don't know, i didn't get a phone call from bill clinton before i jumped in the race. did any of you get a phone call from bill clinton? i didn't. >> and that was carly fiorina standing out again with donald trump as the pivot point. he was all night. you had other candidates, scott walker, marco rubio that used their time to focus on their own introduction to the large primetime audience with other candidates on stage with them. john kasich used his time very effectively. the ohio state governor. he was vigorous and made a strong impression. i don't know how far he will go

in this race but he was off to a good start last night guys. >> i didn't expect jeb bush to -- you know they say trump was trump. jeb bush was just jeb bush. when he says you might have to lose the primary to win -- that might be problematic because a lot of the tough was very right wing. >> you were not impressed with jeb? >> i was impressed -- >> you were? >> i don't expect him to say jump up and down and look at me and i thought he was substantive and christie was the other guy that i liked. i'm seeing that supposedly ted cruz won or all of these things and i didn't see it. even kasich. i thought carly was amazing. she did a chris matthews

interview where finally at the end he goes -- >> i did not. >> check that out because at the end he said wow i see why you did so well. >> she's a very good communiq communicator. >> very good. >> i'm trying to figure out the political calculus of chuck schumer announcing that on debate night. first i thought maybe he wanted it to get lost in all the coverage of the debate. >> maybe he wanted it picked up. >> but then on the other hand here is a night where every single republican is just hammering that iran deal and then the leading democrat in the senate comes out against it. that looked almost like a slap in the face to the administration. why did he decide yesterday to do it? why did he pick that day? >> well, first of all, just on the point, i was tweeting during the debate last night and the tweet that got the most reaction

of anything that i sent out was hey by the way chuck schumer just announced he's coming out against the iran deal and democrats were not happy with that at all. according to schumer's office he informed the white house he was going to oppose the deal and it leaked to the huffington post and you would have to assume that it was the white house that leaked it. but look i think this is something that is about the politics of chuck schumer and new york. not about him as a democratic leader and we've seen enough on the fence democratic senators come out for this that i think it looked more and more likely that that small core of democrats that can protect the president from a veto override is going to be there for him and chuck schumer is going to take a lot of grief on this from democrats. i don't think it's likely to stop the president's deal. >> that's something in and of itself, john because maybe the

public is stupid again and doesn't know what it's talking about. 2-1 against. you saw the republicans. another incredibly devicive issue and all the points that were made about, you know -- >> yeah, there will be a big vote in congress against the deal but not big enough to override president obama. >> it doesn't seem like a way to -- i don't know. maybe he's really, really sure that this is the best thing for the country but when everything is so devicive and you have 2-1 against it. >> he may be wrong. joe, he may be wrong, the president, but he definitely believes this is in the best interest of the country. if you see the way he defends this deal, he is relishing this iran argument because he thinks he's right. he thinks the critics are wrong and he's going for it with a year and a half left in his presidency and we will find out subsequently -- >> you don't think schumer has

any -- you think all the other democrats will say that's because he's from new york and he's got to do this? >> no, no. not all the other ones. just not enough to sink it. chuck schumer in this case, you shouldn't look at him as the democratic leader for purposes of this vote. everyone on capitol hill views this as chuck schumer taking care of his own politics in new york. >> if the population is 2-1 opposed to this and now the senators are going to be home listening to their constituents and getting a feel about what they think about things will that change their minds over the summer recess too? >> possible but a lot of people have come out already. but remember when you say 2-1 against the deal, that's not what our polls showed. our poll which was out this week showed a more even split where you had equivalent -- you had about a third, a third, a third for it, against it, don't know

enough about it. so it depends how you ask the question and at least in the nbc wall street journal poll it was not 2-1 against. >> john, thank you. >> you bet. >> let's get more reaction. trying to understand this. joe watkins served as an official in the george h.w. bush white house. sarah fagan served as a political director in the george w. bush white house. you guys might not argue that much about it. she is also a cnbc contributor. maybe i'll just frame it this way. it was the republican debate. so let's just assume that we want to get a republican view on this to try to diffuse the criticism. why don't we have her on? but then she wouldn't come on because i might ask her about

the difference between democrats and socialism. just for what it's worth, you're a republican, you work for 141 i guess. do you have allegiance to 41? >> no. i try to look at this as objectively as possible. i do like jeb bush. i think he did a good job. he showed that he was jeb bush. he's not h.w., or w. his own person. very very different from his brother and his father. i thought he did very well last night. i thought that chris christie did well last night. >> maybe we're looking long-term too i guess joe. >> now doing well and moving the chains are two different things. i think that jeb was stronger. rubio may have moved the chains a little bit as well with his performance last night. he didn't necessarily answer the questions but he did a good job of defining himself for the audience watching. >> donald trump may have lost as

many as ten points. he is unfiltered and he wasn't as unfiltered last night as i thought he might be. well, you have to be really -- they asked him the question about the general. what would you have done about the iranian general. he talked about the iran nuclear deal and his opposition to it. a good trump answer would have been something like just what business is it of yours what i would do. i would take care of the guy. why should i broadcast what i'm going to do to the world to this guy. but i'd take care of him. it would have answered the question directly. it would have answered it directly. he didn't do that last night. he wasn't himself last night as he has been in the past. tlog say anythi willing to say anything without worrying about the consequences. he was a little bit more filtered than he normally is. >> sarah, just quickly and not because you're a woman but

because i thought carly fiorina was amazing and afterwards as well but i hear everyone saying that -- i don't know -- she can't be the top of the ticket. maybe she could be -- maybe she can run for vice president or something like that. do you see it that way? >> well i don't think that she is going to be the nominee. not because she doesn't have ability but because it takes about $1.3 billion to wage a race and there's no evidence yet that she can mount that type of an effort. look, she has acquitted herself very well in this campaign and i think if she continues to have the performance that we have seen out of carly, she will be talked about as a vp candidate. she probably won't be the vp but i suspect that she will be the chairman of whoever the nominee of our party is. she will be the chairman of that campaign because she is proving to be the best communicator and certainly the best female

communicator we have on the main stage as a party. hats off to her. >> people see what they want to see and i'm looking at these crazy polls that are taken afterwards and i see cruz. cruz wins and i didn't -- people see what they want to see depending on where they sit in the political spectrum. >> i think that's right. we'll see just how effective folks were if those poll numbers move. we see dramatic shifts which i don't expect. maybe except for donald trump. we see dramatic shifts then you'll say well i guess so and so did outperform in the debate but i didn't see anybody knock the ball out of the park. this was like in a heavyweight fight the way to win is knockout the champ. you have to really knock the champ out. >> it almost seems like people are afraid to take trump on.

carly fiorina being an exception with this. they didn't seem like they wanted to really get in his way. >> the reason is because he's sitting on 25% of the vote right now depending on the poll you lack at. and there was a point at a break where senator cruz very sort of awkwardly hugged him. people were fawning on dawning. you saw governor kasich praised him or at least acknowledged the spirit he has captured within the republican party. so candidates are a little afraid of him and all republicans are surprised at some of the things he has said, particularly about senator john mccain and he has still continued to lead these polls. i don't expect that's going to last. ultimately he will do two or three more debates and won't

have substance like last night and that will catch up with him but for now he puts on an incredible show. >> people still like -- the rand paul supporters still love rand. >> i thought he had a tough time last night. >> he seemed deranged. the apple doesn't fall far from the tree. i remember his father talking about the fed or something. >> did you see the commercial his father ran leading up to the debate. >> for him? >> no, just talking about the markets. about what he has talked about in the past just as a segentle reminder for his followers to get out the vote for his son. >> if i had to sum this debate up last night, you really think on broad scale, governors did very well, senators didn't do quite as well. rubio got some good lines in but the other two, cruz and senator paul, they had kind of a tough night in my view. but the governors did very well though. >> i agree.

okay. that once again was the discl m disclaimer the republican side of thing. i'll play that side. coming up. i'm going to take that side. >> in fact, when we come back, we do have something else to talk about. jobs in america in a fragile place when it comes to the markets. will the employment report calm investor fears or raise more speculation on the future of interest rates. right now as we head to a break check out this day in history. ♪ every auto insurance policy has a number. but not every insurance company understands the life behind it. those who have served our nation. have earned the very best service in return.

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welcome back everybody it is jobs day. economists are expecting 223,000 jobs were added to the economy in july with the jobless rate expected to remain unchanged at 5.3%. joining us to look at the impact on the markets is michelle gerard. chief economist at rbs. also john wilson, welcome to both of you. michelle, tell me, is this really as important as we think? is the fed watching this number?

>> you know, he made the comment earlier in the week, six years and we're waiting on one number or two to raise rates, i thought that was an excellent point. in the markets absolutely. they feel that the fed at least needs some cover, if you will, by continued strong data to justify taking the action. the fed set this up themselves by continue dwrully stressing it's data dependent as opposed to saying we're here. we have been growing 2.5 for six years. we don't need emergency rates anymore. >> would it take a number below 150. a number below 200. maybe there's slow down. >> i think that's a great point. >> anything over 200 meets that criteria of showing further improvement. what would make them nervous?

as you said something 150 or lower would be large enough to suggest or worry them that something more meaningful has happened. as i said, of course it would almost be so weak it would look weird and there must be a fluke. we'll have to wait and see how the next one goes. it would take a lot quite honestly at this point to justify not moving if you will because of really how far we have come. >> what do you think the labor market looks like right now. we know that 5.3% is the official unemployment rate but there's people that take a look at the participation rate and say that things are out of whack and there's a lot of americans that don't feel that we're headed in the right direction. how do you justify 5.3% on unemployment with what you think is really happening? >> well, if you look at all the data, you really can't. i don't think there's anyone out there that thinks 5.3% is really the unemployment rate but that's what we're dealing with.

michelle wright what she says about the jobs report. the other thing that would probably put it and unemployment rate would pick up from 5.3 to 5.4. that probably doesn't happen. that's one of the worries out there just rolling the markets a little bit and it's been awhile since we had a descent break of any kind and we had a knee jerk weakness for the last several years. last october was the first correction we've had. maybe we're due for another one. it's hard to get too bearish or cautious in the context of the long-term bull market which i think we're in. >> why do you think we're in a long-term bull market and it continues from here. >> if you look at history, the old mark twain adage that history doesn't always repeat itself but it often rhymes, one is there's only been five times in history, count it 2008 where

the trailing ten year return got as low as it did. if you go back and look at what happened subsequent to that you always had ten years of above average gains following that and the range was around 12.9 to 15.7% compounded. so if you look at that and you kind of plot it out, we're in about the 5th inning right now. we have gotten back into the range. they can cure it by pulling back a little bit or going sideways and right now we have been going sideways for the first time we're beginning to see deteriorations in things like the decline line. some non-conformations here and there but they're not really stretched right now. the overbought, oversold indicators have been moderately neutral to slightly down. we need to really put in a good solid bottom if we're going to

get a descent correction here. you like to see it rising. even get a little higher perhaps. such a great indicator. >> michelle, there are a lot of people grappling and looking around and trying to figure out what's happening. there's nervousness in the market. what numbers are you looking at to try to figure out what's really happening. >> again we sort of have to step back and it was talked about for a lot of people it doesn't feel like things are so strong and booming. but truthfully the economy is on solid footing and i think you see that when you look at the consumer spending. june was disappointing. the truth is we're almost growing 3% in terms of consumer spending in the second quarter. most of us are looking for that or better in the second half of the year. that's an above trend performance. the economy even growing 2.5% is growing above it's potential and it gets back to the point that against that backdrop it's probably time to start moving rates up to a level that's more

normal. that's more justified. >> it's time. >> it's time. >> michelle, thank you. and john thank you. >> thank you. >> coming up, the real lead story of the day, the return of the lizard man spotted. it's not a movie opening. it's something much more terrifying but it means real business for one small town. that's next. we don't have an actual picture but i can describe what this thing looks like. 7 feet tall. >> lizard man? >> yeah, the lizard man. yeah the lizard man. anyway as we head to break -- be afraid. be very afraid. here's a look at yesterday's s&p 500 winners and losers. more and more, data is visual. in fact, the number of mris has increased by ten percent a year.

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you can't camp in maine when you were up there. >> no, we slept in a house. >> you slept in a house. there will come a time with your kids, kyle and maybe the girls, you're going to need ghost stories. >> we're already those. >> you are? >> not with kyle. just with the girls. >> you can't tell the one about the dog hanging in the shower -- >> yeah. >> that one works but might be a little scary for a 4-year-old or

5-year-old but lizard man. i did not know this but since 1988 there's been sightings in south carolina of something called the lizard man. >> look at that. >> 7 feet tall. that is obviously not a costume because that just looks so real with that tail. anyway, hadn't been spotted in awhile. it was spotted again just recently. something came out of the woods and ran across the bridge. >> that's better than sasquach. >> yeah. it's tall and has scales and alligator with short nose and long legs. a lot of people have seen it but they went to the university of south carolina that studied animal and plant populations and he says until he actually sees

it he's unable to disprove it and confirm it. in the human mind, i don't care how much education you got there's always this wonderful feeling that there are great mysteries out there. >> we can't know everything. we can't know everything. >> there are more things in heaven and earth rebecca than we have drempt of. >> i completely agree with that. >> i hope flst a lizard man. >> there's not. >> looked like the creature from the lagoon. >> black lagoon. i want to talk about something that senator bill nelson has been talking about. senate committee report is out and they are urging the airlines to be a little more transparent about the fees they're charging people. he said the traveling public is being nickelled and dimed to death. no kidding. we know that already. anyone that's flown in the last five years knows exactly what's going on with this. i don't know if we need the senate to tell us this or a report to go out with it but in case you didn't realize how much

you were being nickelled and dimed today they say between 2007 and 2014 the amount of revenue that airlines generate from fees. baggage fees and cancellation fees and getting rid or trying to move a time on your flight has gone from 2.4 billion to $38.1 billion. baggage fees alone went from 346 million to 3.5 billion. we know that. it's part of the reasons they're making money. anybody that's flown knows this. probably not a news flash. >> still a deal. that's why the tickets are still reasonable. >> you drove. you were doing some driving with the kids. >> we did a ten hour car trip. >> not easy is it? >> we got up at 4:30. >> who was driving? your husband? >> matt. >> it is tense. the trucks and bumps and you never know, one wrong move and, you know -- >> do you know how many license plates we got. >> of different states. >> 43. >> 43. >> alaska, hawaii, idaho.

>> oregon. >> we got oregon. >> montana. >> montana was on the list we didn't get. utah we didn't get. we got utah the last day. i take that back. >> east or west dakota. >> north or south we did not. >>dy i had get that wrong. >> one of the kids asked about south virginia. >> south virginia. >> anyway, up next, media melt down. media stocks taking a beating this week. disney, fox, time warner, viacom and others in the downdraft. will we start to see companies looking for a lifeline? that is next when squawk box comes right back. can a business have a mind?

a subconscious. a knack for predicting the future. reflexes faster than the speed of thought. can a business have a spirit? can a business have a soul? can a business be...alive?

welcome back to squawk box everyone. take a look at the u.s. equity

futures. we have been watching things as we head into this jobs report we get in under two hours at this point. things are relatively flat. traders probably waiting to see what happens with the jobs report because that will give them clues as to what the fed may do next in september. the dow is down by 5.5. s&p futures down fractionally and the nasdaq down by about four points. >> viacom the latest major media company to be getting crushed by as much as 20% yesterday after reporting lackluster earnings. now down over 40% this year. is viacom in danger of losing to the digital disruptor? a new study showing that 20% of younger viewers watch netflix. joining us now to talk about it is brian steinberg. he is senior television editor at variety. and it's been severe this week. has it been overdone? >> maybe it is perhaps but i think it's a bad quarter and bad

decade. >> it's with good reason though. suddenly if you're looking at a complete change in how people consume television that is going to leave some of the big standard guys, the giants right now maybe fumbling to try to find their way. >> that's right. it's a big question about durable lines of revenue. cable distributors have always been rock solid and now you're saying that it's not solid anymore. >> it hasn't changed that much and over the next five years we don't see it being more than in the past five years. kind of a move are they lying or clueless? >> people think espn and walking dead, two of the most stable programming ventures are under duress. >> from espn it was instead of -- it was a 1% loss.

>> but iger spent a lot of time on the call defending espn and people took that as a sign of weakness. >> because he had to defend it from the questions. >> yeah. >> i look at what happened to print and i try to see the analogy. we use netflix now. maybe not everyone can afford it but i don't see the actual experience at home shifting. >> they came out saying buy time warner. >> if that was a justified blood bath. were they worth the higher valuations we saw earlier? is this something that could turn on a dime. i was amazed to see this effect the entire industry. >> it's true.

i do think, look, scale will do better. disney, comcast and fox all have multiple portfolios and they can sell them to netflix and amazon and overseas better. sometimes they're smaller. when you have at&t and directv merging, you have people that have smaller and i think getting smaller. those are bigger questions. >> i wish we could see the future obviously because disney was the biggest -- the highest performing dow component before that happened. got shanghai, disney, it's got star wars coming and you're not a stock analyst but a lot of times really quick large corrections serve to move the stock from the weak hands to the stronger hands and it's the slow, steady sickening decline over a year or two years.

it's not the quick breaks that people use to buy. i wish we could say it. i wish we could say what the future is. i don't know at this point. >> the question does come back to is content still king? >> looking at cbs which seems to do well despite being a smaller company in today's sector is doing well and has plans to articulate being digital as well. one to watch, i think shows that get this viral sensation that do well once and overseas have a future. it's maximizing the windows of content that will probably be who survives. >> what about viacom though? the question becomes do they have the content that people still want to watch. >> it's heavily dependent on younger kids. nickelodeon, mtv, comedy central, these were all the first adopters.

they're more prone to taking a couple of services and having fun with it. viacom is trying new add deals and to maximize content but they're still a television company. >> how much of it is even jon stewart leaving comedy central. >> it's a whole thing over there. john oliver and jon stewart. that network built a great line-up over the last couple of years. they're trying to rebuild a whole grid certainly. >> thank you for coming in. >> watch out, falling prices in the oil market. are we about to see oil plunging below $40? and gasoline below $2 at the pump? more on the oil shock. bring it on next on squawk box. but you're armed with a roomy new jansport backpack, a powerful new dell 2-in-1 laptop, and durable new stellar notebooks, so you're walking the halls with varsity level swagger.

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crude oil sliding to the lowest level since march, and down over 50% over the last year on continued investor concerns over u.s. stockpiles of gas and oil. here now with more on where oil prices could be headed, or what might influence that is kevin book, clear view energy partner's managing director. what is this latest rout? is it demand or supply? >> it's really a supply issue. i think what happened is the market looked down after the iran deal. i think there was a lot of speculative long interest that

believed that because rig counts were following, there was going to be an imminent resolution of the overhang in the market. but then the reminder that even more oil could be coming back. gosh, that was the reason to sort of do a gut check. and since then, we've seen a lot of connection back towards where i think a lot of people thought the market should have been a while ago. >> so, speaking of the iran deal, we've got 24 days, i guess. we can turn things on and off in less time than that now, can't we? people think you retire a drilling rig and it's, like, two years before it can come back up. but there's a different -- some of these things you just don't have to tap immediately, but you can turn it right back on. we got back to 60 or 65 and they turned it right back on, didn't they? >> yeah, that kind of flexibility is here to stay. part of what's going on is in the near-term, there's this huge bag log of drilled wells that haven't yet been completed through fracturing. part of the reason is the price isn't right right now. part of the reason is the price

of services used to be too high. that's the first oil to come back to market after the price signal calls for it. after that, though, yeah, you can turn things around fast. pad drilling has really shortened the timeframe for new wells to come on from existing resources. that can be 30 days. >> so people that say 70 by the end of this year, and then 75 next year, that probably isn't going to happen, is it? >> next year still looks a bit rocky, especially with the iranian oil coming back to market. but there is a long-term story playing out. if you think about what u.s. oil is doing right now, it's replacing the spare capacity that the saudis used to turn on and off when they were balancing the market. now that we're balancing the market, we're just a balancer. we're not necessarily the incredibility. what is the incredibility? the oil that's not being invested in in the brazilian offshore, and the big fields and big projects that are being scuttled at low prices. when you look out into the long haul, you have to ask, is demand going to come back? and demand is coming back. it's coming back here on the american roads first, but everywhere else, it will

eventually wake up, rub the dust out of its eyes and get behind the wheel. >> so, if china either recovers or falls off a cliff, either one of those things matter on the demand side? will that add to what's going on to supply, or could it be its own mover? >> china is the whole story right now. >> no, for demand. >> all right, so it still matters. >> very much still matters. but the point is that right now what's happened is the supply reality has come home to roost. >> it's always supply and demand. but it would really help to know, you know, when we're trying to figure out the global economy. it would help to know whether, you know, this is a demand or supply situation with oil because we make, you know, forecasts about global growth based on it. if it's a demand thing, we've got problems with global growth. >> structurally, demand is weak because so much of oil demand is gdp linked and it's mostly in the non-oacd economies.

but that can come back and here's hoping it will. >> okay, kevin. thank you. you watch the debate? >> sure did. >> who did you like? >> i liked the end of the debate. >> that's not nice. there wasn't enough action for you? >> i thought ben carson was terrific. >> he had some moments, didn't he? >> he sure did. >> i thought it was funny, he thought greenspan was the treasury secretary. then again, he's the neurosurgeon. >> he looks at the brain. >> i wish i didn't know as much as i know about alan greenspan. thanks, kevin. >> thanks for having me. >> we know a little too much, right? >> maybe. when we come back this morning, the countdown to the jobs report. prediction on what the numbers will mean for the fed's next decision. we'll be right back.

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the counterdown to the jobs report is on. economist john writing and jason frenner are here with predictions. spoiler alert. donald trump refusing to rule out a run as an independent candidate if he doesn't get the gop nomination. we'll break down the winners and losers from the republican debate. >> and it's been a bloody week for media stocks. losses in the last four sessions erasing $44 billion in market cap. we will talk to an analyst about the biggest losers. and the new media companies that are set to take off. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. welcome back to "squawk box."

i'm joe along with becky quick. andrew ross sorkin is off today. 215,000 on foreign payrolls. that's weak. wow. they have to do work to come up with that? if you had to guess, wouldn't you say -- eh. all these economists. do they do any math at all, or do they say, you know, 215. >> do they do what you do, you mean? >> yeah, 215. isn't 215, given what we've had, that's just like a guesstimate. that could be 150 or 350. they have no idea. >> well, it's not economists' fault. it's the variability of the data. even the best models have an average era of plus or minus. but we also have to remember the

benefit comes in at 170. we shouldn't cry it's weak, it's weak. it's just -- you know, it's just a low end of the draw. >> are you allowed to say kiss your sister? >> you just did. >> that's a kiss your sister guess. that's weak. i'm not taking any chances here. it's august. got to come up with a number. >> glad i'm not your sister. because you're insulting at the same time. >> no. you know what i'm saying. and i'm not going to go any further than that because i'm going on vacation and i don't want anything to happen. the unemployment rate expected to remain steady at 5.3% in this twitter world. you know what i'm saying? >> i'm with you. u.s. equity futures at this hour down 12 at this point on the dow. this is negative from where they were earlier. >> the last time we looked at

them, it was down .8. >> when i was coming in, it was up just a little bit. overseas in asia, the shanghai did rise more than 2%. fireworks last night at the gop presidential debate. john harwood is in cleveland and has the highlights. >> donald trump was at the center of the stage even when he wasn't on it. former business executive carly fiorina grabbed attention by going right after him. >> i don't know. i didn't get a phone call from bill clinton before i jumped in the race. did any of you get a phone call from bill clinton? >> when the main event started, a fox news moderator challenged trump to pledge loyalty to the gop. >> mr. trump -- >> he refused, drawing a quick but harmless attack from rand paul. paul tried again when trump praised single payer health care. >> the republican party's been fighting against a single payer system for a decade. so i think you're on the wrong side of this if you're still

arguing for a single payer system. >> i don't think you heard me. you're having a hard time tonight. >> jeb bush was more careful and polite, but didn't damage the real estate tycoon much either. >> the one thing you did say about me, however, was my tone. and i also understand that. but when you have people that are cutting christians' heads off, we don't have time for tone. >> trump's own message was simple. instead of a traditional politician, the country needs him. >> this country right now owes $19 trillion, and they need somebody like me to straighten out that mess. >> others like scott walker and marco rubio focused on their own messages before the large primetime audience. it may have paid off most for home state ohio governor john kasich, who was energetic and up beat after just recently entering the race. what that caution from most of the candidates indicated was that they don't think it's the time for them to try to take donald trump downright now. they're hoping instead the

calendar does it when people begin going to the polls in early 2016. the hope of these candidates is that they will look at donald trump and say that is not somebody i can see in the oval office. reporting from cleveland, i'm john harwood. >> that's john harwood. we'll have more reaction to the debate coming up at the bottom of the hour but we've been talking about it all morning. it was fireworks. something to watch. we're not going to know how it really plays until we see the next polls. >> probably, it's 45/45, and then the 10% in the middle. whoever wins the majority of the 10% gets elected. so donald trump right now is at 25%, who at this point can just as a republican can just write off that 22%? you can't. >> that's probably why you saw so much deference. people were almost afraid to take him on. he's known for lashing out. when he doesn't agree with you, did that to megyn kelly last night, didn't like her questions and took her to task for it. >> she was ready.

she was ready to do it. she did it with glee. my point was that there's no mainstream media outlet that will do this to the democrats. i mean, you won't get a fox type of -- >> fox, really, from my opinion, they really wanted to make it seem clear that they were going to be fair. that they were going to be tough on the candidates. >> we needed to hear what these guys had to say. >> someone said jeb came in as cold oatmeal and didn't warm up. but you know what? you microwave cold oatmeal and it's still healthy, it's still nutritious, it's still a good meal. he doesn't need to immediately warm up his oatmeal. >> i think part of it was he had to survive last night and not make a misstep. >> and you can't enter the fray in the food fight necessarily.m basically saying he needs to look like the adult in the room. he can't get into a screaming match with somebody calling each other stupid. and he did that. >> and christie -- okay, so he

said -- he was in new jersey at the time. people where i lived, lost a lot of people in 9/11. it's a bedroom community. and rolling your eyes when you say -- that was weird. rand paul. did you see? the smirk. that was weird. >> although rand paul was talking about the hug after sandy. >> later. >> yeah. >> that's the one thing people do bring up. >> we'll talk more about it later this morning and we have a lot to get to with the jobs report. want to tell you quickly about some of the other top stories. one of the most powerful democrats in the senate breaking ranks with the president over the iran nuclear deal. senator chuck schumer said he would oppose the agreement. nbc news is reporting that a sophisticated cyber attack against an unclassified pentagon e-mail system was conducted by russian hackers. that attack occurred around july 25th and it affected some 4,000

military and civilian personnel who worked for the joint chiefs of staff. officials say it isn't clear if the attack was sanctioned by the russian government. and google and samsung responding to more frequent cyber attacks on mobile devices. the companies will release security updates for android phones each month. previously uncoordinated releases of security patches left millions of people without -- with vulnerability to some of those attacks. >> joining us now is jason trenner. how many people do you know that have an anagram for a last name? >> palendrome? >> we all have anagrams. >> but you blew it because you used to work at isi. but it is cool. >> i don't think it scores heavy with the chicks. palandrome, not really something

to lead with. >> exnay on the chick word. >> is that politically incorrect? >> are both you guys at 215 for the jobs number? >> we're saying it has to be above 200 to keep the fed in the game for september. >> i'm at 200. i actually don't think it has to be that strong to keep the fed in play. forget about palindromes. they're telling us that the progress from here doesn't need to be as fast. and the unemployment rate is down at 5.3%. so we think 150,000 over the next two months keeps the fed in play.

they shouldn't tie it to the jobs report. they should go anyway and start restoring some value to overnight money and start lifting interest rates off zero. it's almost seven years since interest rates went to zero. >> got to do your gut strong numbers that you've just seen on the most important reports. >> it's very hard to justify zero. i would say they're clearly pockets of misallocations of capital as a result of the fact that you have such easy money. it's also, i would argue without good fiscal or regulatory or trade policy, you're just throwing good money after bad. you're creating other problems. unforeseen circumstances. i think it's high time. my own opinion. >> if there was a time when they thought that the animal spirits in the stock market were being conjured by their zerp, we're at

17-4 now. and we're not getting any benefit at all in the stock market from this anymore. and i honestly think the stock market is waiting for these clowns to finally make the move. >> we're pointing to the fed and the stock market. capital spending isn't getting any boost. >> we thought it would eventually. >> what we're seeing is companies buying other companies. other companies investing in their own growth. and that's what the fed wants to see. so to me it's not an interest rate program. >> did you see him the other day? he denied that when i said companies aren't doing what they would normally do. they've got zero interest rate so they do all this other stuff instead of investing in plant equipment and employees. >> they seek to take over by nominally moving the headquarters overseas. there's a lot we could do to stimulate the economy that isn't the distortion of zero interest rates. >> you have too much uncertainty again with the other types of policies. so if you're running a business -- i run a small

business, john runs a small business. i can't even imagine a large business. if you don't know what the rules are going to be, two years, one year, one year ahead of time, why would you make capital spending decisions? you use the cash for things that are immediately created. not saying it's good, but it's a very rational approach if you're running a company. capital spending -- by the time it works out, you could be spending more time with your family. it's very rational for people to do things that are more short-term. >> so the notion of policies that would take us to 4% gdp, which jeb bush says he's doing and gets hammered by the left, which is perfectly willing to accept 2% because of globalization, and if we're going to have a euro entitlement state, we've got to be happy with two. would pro growth get us back to three, three and a half consistently? >> i think we have to figure out how to get productivity up. and we have had in the jobs

numbers, talking about 215,000. that kind of job growth number on a consistent basis typically was associated with 3.5% to 4% job growth. maybe partly it's mismeasurement in all the new media companies that you're going to be talking about later where their contributions to output add to prices, don't get properly captured because the gdp doesn't capture it. or maybe there's something more problematic, more systemic in the nature of low productivity, and that comes back to capital spending in part, in my opinion. but to get it to -- if you got demand up to 4% and didn't fix the supply side, the u.s. economy would run into trouble. >> i think 4% is imminently doable for the united states. the united states has benefits that other parts of the world don't have. we're relatively open to immigration. so we have higher birthrates.

we have natural resources, which we're not using. maybe the only country dumb enough in the history of history not to use its own natural resources. i don't think 4% is -- i just don't believe in the new normal. i really think that certain government policies could greatly aid in not just accepting 2%. >> no one wants to be a wild-eyed optimist, but what's wrong with aiming for that? so you hit 3.5. better than 2. >> of course. but again, these are -- they're always tradeoffs, political tradeoffs that you have to make. whether you're talking about energy policy or other considerations that have come into play. but i think the u.s. is blessed again with certain advantages that let's say japan or europe, it's just not going to happen. no matter what they do. and it's compounded, i would argue, by bad policies. here we just have not so great policies.

>> all right. thank you. did i say rdq? i didn't even introduce you as that. do we need to mention your company and your title? >> no. >> you sure? >> you stand on your own. >> john's well-known. >> you're well-known. did i say straight gas? >> you get the straight gas. >> you cheaped out on paying someone for a name, didn't you? >> i know, clearly, we came up with it ourselves. we didn't hire a branding consultant on that one. >> run it by me next time. >> gentlemen, thank you both. when we come back, some big movers, dom chu takes a look at the most clickworthy stocks. plus, a bloody week for media stocks. we will break down the biggest losers and ask an analyst which new media companies stand to gain from cutting the cord. "squawk box" will be right back. college students drop out.

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welcome back, everybody. we have seen some big movers in the last few weeks of earnings reports. our dom chu is here, he breaks

it down with the buzz stocks getting the most clicks on cnbc.com. >> good morning, and happy friday, becky. this whole idea that viewers have a real affinity for certain numbers of stocks out here really place out in what i'm going to show you here. what we took a look at are the stocks that get the most clicks. the ones that get the most searches on our website. and if you take a look at these, these are the top ten. single stock tickers that get the most interest from our viewers and our readers on cnbc.com. number one, far and away and no surprise here is apple and it's been that way for quite some time now. but take a look at the performance. one month-wise. this was as of a couple of days ago, the performance. fitbit was up, but now it's more like 4% or 5%. bank of america, the second-most searched stock over the past month, those shares up by about 5%. also old names that we focus on quite a bit.

general electric one of the top ten most searched ones. disney, no huge surprise there given their earnings. and the billions of dollars of market cap that have been lost from some of america's biggest media and content companies. and twitter shares down 22% as well. we want to put some of these in broader context. if you take a look at this year-to-date chart, you can see netflix shares up today up 160% to $127 a share. a huge momentum upside player right now. we'll see if that continues. on the downside, perhaps no surprise here. you can see those shares a volatile one. earnings related, some of the momentum carries through. twitter and netflix, two of the

top ten most clicked on stocks, some of the ones that have had the biggest moves among large cap names. interesting that these are the stocks that viewers spend the most time researching, clicking, looking, and quoting when it comes to our website, becky. back over to you. >> dom, thank you so much. coming up, carl icahn disclosing a new investment. why the billionaire is finding value in the energy sector, next. time now for today's aflac trivia question. what important of the current u.s. population is made of up millennials? the answer when cnbc "squawk box" continues. ah! aflac? aflac! i thought you said this guy was the best? oh, he's a horrible stylist. gah? but he's the best at paying claims fast! really... mmhmm. paid mine in just one day. one day? yea.

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now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. what portion of the current u.s. population is made up of millennials? the answer, 1/3. >> oh, my god. did you hear that? >> what? >> the percentage of u.s. population is millennials. a third! i love millennials. love them. welcome back. a german newspaper reporting that the country's finance ministry favors a bridge loan to

give greece more time to negotiate a comprehensive bailout. it could be a sticking point in negotiations. the greek prime minister and french president has said they expect to agree on a full bailout by late august. a bridge loan would be necessary for greece to make a $3.5 billion euro payment. this one actually counts. it's not to the imf. it's one that would constitute a default, i think. and north korea announcing it will establish its own time zone next week. pulling back its current standard time by 30 minutes. the establishment of pyongyang time is seen as a move to distance north korea from a legacy of the japanese colonial period, which ended 70 years ago. >> creating their own galaxy. >> half-hour. difference in half-hours. >> okay. also some business news for you this morning. billionaire carl icahn unveiling his latest investment, disclosing that he holds an 8.2%

stake in cheniere energy. he has some thoughts about what they could be doing to change things. one of them was pretty interesting. we've always known the price of the commodity very rapidly determines the shares. i think he's tying it back to that. if you get paid high when the stock is high, you should be getting paid low when the commodity and the stock is low. >> right. and, you know, if there's a wind fall profits tax, we should be somehow helping these poor oil and gas companies now. >> from a guy who owns 8.2%, though. he can make that call when you own that much of it. >> he does. his competition, i would trade mine for. i think. >> i would agree with that. >> just barely. >> but again, when you're an owner, you get to call the shots on that stuff. if you missed the delivering alpha conference, we've got some good news for you. complete coverage of the investing conference is now

available online at deliveringalpha.com. here's jamie dimon at the conference, sharing his investment advice from everything on oreos to beer. >> i think go where risk is on your side. find areas where there's a lot going on. the supply/demand is in your favor. we really think that the owner of budweiser clearly is interested in continuing to grow. they actually have enormous value to consolidation. all these industries are good, stable businesses, so they're -- i think they're safe to own. you don't have to worry about somebody waking up one day and deciding no one's ever going to eat oreo cookies again. coming up, donald trump was the only candidate at last night's debate who refused to take the no spoiler pledge. we will talk to winners and losers of last night's face-off

with former congressman herald ford and katie packer gauge. hello. i am here to offer sophisticated investing strategies. my technology can help you choose the right portfolio. monitor it. and automatically rebalance it. all without charging advisory fees, account service fees or commissions. that may be hard to compute. but i'm a computer. so trust me. it computes. say hello at intelligent.schwab.com

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welcome back to "squawk box." among the stocks that we're watching, capital one financial in exclusive talks to acquire general electrics. u.s. health care finance unit. and a deal could top 10 billion t dollars 68. and visual computing company invidia jumping in late trading. profits came in below expectations. and lions gate, the studio behind "the hunger games" is reporting profits of 26 cents a share, well above expectations. but revenue of $409 million missed estimates of $428 million. i skip things that just don't make any sense sometimes. i mean, maybe it was, maybe it wasn't. i just don't know for sure whether they earned 28 cents and

the estimate was for seven cents. and the stock's down. i don't know. maybe it seems like i need to look at it myself before i will put my brand on the line for whether that's factual or not. same with this guy coming up. >> and now they all know how the sausage gets made. >> yeah, exactly. good morning. if i call you mr. mayor, do you take offense to that? >> mayor de blasio certainly would as well. >> okay, sorry. >> let's talk about why herald is here this morning. the republican candidates facing off in primetime in the first of several debates. senator marco rubio held his own and had this to say about small business and jobs in america. >> the first thing we need to do is even out the tax code for small businesses so that we lower their tax rate to 25% just as we need to lower it for all businesses. we need to have a regulatory budget in america that limits the amount of regulations on our economy. we need to repeal and replace obamacare. and we need to improve higher education so that people can have access to the skills they

need for 21st century jobs. >> joining us right now is herald ford, former u.s. congressman and managing director at morgan stanley. also katie packer gauge, she is former deputy campaign manager of romney's 2012 campaign. and political consultant. i want to get to you in a moment, herald, but i want to start with katie first. katie, i want to know what you thought, as a republican, which of these did you think did the best and who would you choose at this point to be your candidate? >> well, i'm not sure i'm ready to make that choice. but it was a big night. all of the focus was on donald trump, and to some degree jeb bush. i thought some rising stars in our party had really good nights and did good things for themselves. i thought carly fiorina, even though she was in the happy hour debate earlier, had a really big night and did a lot of good for herself. i thought marco rubio had a really strong night last night. scott walker. john kasich, who's new to the

race, had some big moments and certainly had a hometown crowd with him. so i think it was nice to see some attention on folks that haven't been getting all of the media attention, and i think what it says is we've got a lot of diversity in our party. certainly a lot more than the democrats are presenting to the american public in 2016, and i think it was an exciting night to be a republican. >> of course, it also says that you have a lot of choices and a lot of different people who are going to split the vote at this point, making it much more difficult for anyone to go up against a democratic contender at this point. looking at this objectively, who did you think did the best? >> i don't disagree a lot with katie at this. i think if you're a republican, you want to frame this debate the way marco rubio did, the future versus the past. i'm a hillary clinton supporter. if you look at it objectively, that's the way elections are won. bill clinton taught all democrats that you don't stop thinking about tomorrow and rubio did best there. i think kasich was second. having certained with jo eservef the stories, he talked about ohio. a lot of it is true. i think some of it people will

quarrel with. but i think he had a super night. as a moderate voter, those two did the best. if you're a conservative voter, a republican voter, i think cruz and huckabee probably did themselves some justice in trying to appeal to a lot of the trump supporters. i didn't think scott walker performed as well as he needed to. he didn't have a bad night, but he needed to perform a little better. joe likes the golf analogies. jeb bush shot par last night. he's fine. he's substantive. stumbled around just a little bit with some of the answers but by and large, he was fine. i think the loser probably was mr. trump, only because i think some of the questions that came at him were probably a little tougher and the velocity certainly was a little higher than it was for some of the other candidates. but i think if you're sitting back on the democratic side and you're hillary clinton, and even the other candidates, and i'm for hillary, but if you sit become and you watch, i don't think the republicans made that much of -- i thought more people would have grabbed on to marco's future versus the past.

if they do more of that, they find themselves in a better position and i think katie's points probably have more resonance then. >> katie, to what herald just said in terms of donald trump taking it on the chin, he was given more pointed questions. he was probably a little more under fire last night. what do you think happens to his supporters? because we're just going to kind of fumble around on this and try to figure this out until we see the next polls. >> i think if you have a record of taking positions that are not in line with republican positions and you refuse to say that you're not going to run against the republican nominee if it's not you, then those seem like really tough questions. those would not have been tough questions for anybody else on that stage. but the reality is, he's sort of the definition of a rhino. he's just decided to be a republican after cozying up to the democratic party for a lot of years. and it's tough to shy away from that when you're on a big stage. i do think he's at best, you know, he sort of holds on to the support he has. but i've been saying for some time that 20% to 25% is a

ceiling for him. i don't see him expanding that support much beyond that and i do not think -- you know, yesterday on television, i bet my life our nominee was not going to be donald trump and i still stand by that today. >> i would even give chris christie and rand paul -- i thought they had an interesting exchange. overall, there was no clear, dominant winner. i just think rubio and kasich are able to walk away from this. i think the two of them are able to walk away knowing that they gained some support and they're going to gain a second look. there's no doubt fiorina was the star. >> you've said you're a hillary supporter again and again. why should we think you're not holding up the candidates that you hope would be the easiest mark for her? and knowing you as i know you -- >> because you know him. >> now you're a bankster at morgan stanley. >> he's a straight talker. >> really? okay. >> i want to be very clear about where i stand. but i try to look at all this subjectively. >> you haven't mentioned jim gol

mo -- jim gilmore. >> you have to mention the things i mention to you in the green room. the future versus past argument in any presidential race is always the most formidable argument. i'm not saying my candidate is the past. but any candidate that's able to talk about the future and embody it the best with those candidates is the candidate that has the best chance to win. >> how does hillary clinton fight that? you admitted she's not going to be -- >> your message has to be about the future and how you position america and families and workers and the economy to compete and win in a 21st century global economy. so she is in i think a great position to do those things. but marco was the first -- senator rubio was the first person in this race thus far to talk about that. with trump, if you remember his comments last night, he said america is in controversial shape, essentially. we are in -- we're facing dire threats. we're facing terrible consequences. so i think that language resonates at times. however, we elect happy

warriors. we elect those who are optimistic. there were so many times that ronald reagan's name was invoked last night. i can't think of a more sunshine political warrior who projected more sunshine and embraced the optimism of america -- >> you think barack obama was an optimistic uniting positive president? >> sure. when he ran, he was. >> in 2008, when he was running. >> i think it's very hard to doubt or mess with that, but that's the way he campaigned. he talked about america being a better place. >> it hasn't gone quite according to plan. >> there would be those that would disagree with you on some of those points. i happen to agree with some elements of what you're saying. but as a candidate, you're not going to win the presidency of the united states preaching pessimism and doom. and senator rubio didn't do that last night. >> marco certainly presents a strong contrast with hillary clinton, and i think to congressman ford's point, this is about the future. that's going to be a really hard thing for somebody that spent the last several decades in washington with drivers and

airplanes ferrying her around to talk about connecting with the american people and presenting a plan for the future. i do think marco was somebody that stood out on that front last night. again, i just want to reiterate. carly fiorina had a strong night. both of those, you know, as i was tweeting last night, are not your daddy's republican party. they are a very different kind of brand for our party. i think having that kind of contrast begin to emerge as the face of the republican party is good for our party and presents a great contrast with hillary clinton, who's very much part of the past. >> so we're going to take her on. i've got to make this quick. when big, complicated serious matters are presented to the country, that's where hillary clinton shines. i think some of the mishaps last night by the republicans will revolve around big foreign policy questions. there's no one more experience. >> although her experience hasn't been really great for our country. >> but joe, if we're faced -- one of the criticisms of president obama around foreign policy is that he lacked some of the experience needed.

there's no question as commander in chief, the foremost responsibility. we'll have a lot of time -- >> i will send you chris matthews' interview with carly fiorina after the debate. i don't know if you saw it last night. >> i did not. i heard it was an interesting exchange. >> very solid. carly did not take it on the chin at all. she gave it back. >> she said every single decision made as secretary of state was wrong. >> the country will have a chance to settle that and decide that. >> well, i hope so. we've got to get some of this other stuff out of the way. >> i happen to disagree with that. if people want to talk about their own decisions, where they were in life, the public sector or the private sector, a lot of time to do that. >> with benghazi, he was saying, how can you call her a liar and then debate her when everything she says is a lie? she says, i didn't say everything she says is a lie. i was very specific about what was a lie. >> you're talking about what ms. fiorina said with chris matthews. >> a point by point sort of

summary of what happened with benghazi. they knew full well that that was not a tape. that that was not the movie. >> and i ask you as an american, as a friend, as a smart guy. do you honestly believe hillary clinton and her team at the state department intentionally put people in peril? >> no, but they didn't admit that they knew it was a terrorist attack on the anniversary of the 2001 terrorist attack. it was in their political interest to look like things there in libya were -- that they didn't need more security, because they hadn't managed the situation well. and to obfuskate the situation. saying we're going to get retribution and they should not have used it as a political -- >> well, they did take that. >> not taking responsible for it at the end of the day is something that i think made her -- >> she took full responsibility. >> i don't think that's how it's

viewed when you look at the footage in the hearing. i don't think it's viewed that way. i think it's viewed that she sort of said hey, what difference does it make now? people say she should just own it. >> if that's the case, in fairness to your point, should congress not own underfunding the state department's efforts to provide security and provide the kind of personnel at these embassies? >> if they don't have the funding they need, you should raise the alarm before there are dead americans that are giving their lives for it. >> in fairness, she did. >> i think that's something she'll have to hold responsible for. >> in fairness, she did. it will be interesting to hear how the country falls down on this. i look forward to this debate. i look forward to you guys picking a nominee. when you do, perhaps we can have a longer conversation. >> that would be great. >> katie, thank you for joining us. harold, thank you for being here. >> absolutely. coming up, fallout from --

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the traditional tv industry is in the cross hairs of a media malaise amid an industry, stocks sell off and rising concerns about how cord cutters could damage the latest media companies. equivalent to macy's and under armour combined, but have stocks been brought down unfairly? joining us now, anthony declemente, a senior analyst. some people look at cbs, it's so different from viacom. viacom is so different than disney. disney shanghai, you talk "star wars" coming up. all the other things that make up that company. they've all had huge runs. and that's part of the reason the air can come out so quickly, isn't it? >> yeah, some have had bigger runs than others. >> there's three things that you consider when you think about whether to buy these media stocks on the selloff. they have to have three

characteristics, in my opinion. one is they have to have scale. two is they have to offer live sports. and three is they've got to have the ability to go direct to consumer. so the way hbo, cbs, perhaps at some point espn can go direct. if you're 0-3 on those, you become a bit in the uninvestable category. if you're 3-3 on those, let's talk about valuation and the multiple and has your stock reached a value multiple. >> first, who's in the 0-3 camp? >> we for a long time have been cautious on more of the pure cable tv providers, because that's where advertising has come down the most. viacom down 9%. and that's the most risk to the bundle breaking apart. discovery, scripps, viacom. these are typically very highly exposed. the bigger, more diversified ones not the case. if you took media as an industry, we've done analysis that would suggest that even if the group lost five million subscribers, and remember, disney didn't talk about that. disney's change was very minute. if you lost 5 million, the

average earnings hit would be about 6%. now, for the guys i just mentioned, it would be more than that, because they're more exposed to cable tv. for some of these stocks that are down, in the group down close to 10%, you mentioned some of the numbers, those could be overreactions. >> when you watch how the nubs slowly over five, six, seven, eight years, a quarter point, half point at a time. >> i don't think these are newspapers. >> that's what i'm saying. they're not. but these quick market corrections aren't usually the beginning of the long decline. >> you're comparing them to newspapers, though. >> no, i'm comparing them to old media versus new media. >> a fast break in the shot clock versus a slow decline. >> what does netflix have out of those three? >> net flex is the most powerful distributor of media. they're going to be part of the oligopoly.

they've got distribution and they're working their way up the chain on content. so they are 3-3. >> you said live sports. >> they don't have sports, but they're sort of the best of distribution. netflix is not in the category of massive content provider. they're getting there. >> that's easier said than done, too. the networks that are supposedly so good at it. >> but what netflix has is distribution. they're a bigger distributor. their multiple is bigger than the biggest cable distributor. for this industry to work in five or ten years, you need to have a symbiotic relationship between content and distribution. it's only going to work. so who are the new distributors? and we know who they are. apple, amazon, google, netflix, facebook possibly. and those guys are taking the place of the old line, the facilities based distributors.

and one of the outcomes could be refinement of direct to consumer strategies. could be industry consolidation. i think the industry executives are starting to rethink their strategy. >> so netflix is 53 billion now. a year and a half ago, probably -- i don't know, 20 billion or so. so it's kind of weird that people didn't realize it was worth more than 20 billion. now at 53 billion, what do you really think this company's potential is? is it 200 billion eventually? >> you know, i don't see why it can't be 100 billion company. a $100 billion company. >> to disrupt everybody else, what's the total market cap of all those other media companies? who's going to get it? it's not a zero sum game. but 100 billion is not going to take all the market share away from everybody else. >> yeah, i don't necessarily

look at it as a zero sum game. >> i would think as much as you love netflix, you'd think it's more than 100 billion. >> we've been with netflix for a why. i think on valuation, it becomes more difficult above 60 or 70 billion market cap to make the case. >> really? >> but the consumer behavior is there. i mean, the viewership on netflix is up like straight up into 55%. cable tv viewership is down. >> i know. i go on netflix once in a while. 90% of the time i'm still going either to a news channel or sports channel or i'll check out what hbo -- you know, the bundle, and just having all the option of going all out. it's going to be hard for me to change with a 75-inch tv and a comfortable couch. i mean, i got netflix. my daughter's different. she's on netflix the entire time. i say, well, what if you need -- >> 33%. a third of the population. >> they're going to come around. they're not always going to be millennials. they can't be.

they're crazy about everything else, too. >> what time warner did in terms of scaling things down and becoming leaner, is that the wrong move? need to be bigger and bigger to be able to compete in this world? >> i think that maybe a mischaracterization in that time warner is doubling down on their content investment at turner, so they're also investing in hbo. i think it's the right investment. hbo now is their direct to consumer solution. and they're investing in that. i think that is the right decision. i think it's investing in networks that aren't going to be included in the bundle. so you mentioned time warner. they have a great thing in the sense that their economics are concentrated to the four networks. and what are they? tnt, tbs, cartoon network, cnn, adult swim. so that's like 85%, 90% of their economics. they don't have 15 or 20 networks, whereas fragmented viewership across many networks. >> all right. thank you. >> thanks. >> when we come back this

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welcome back, everybody. let's take a look at shares of hershey this morning. the chocolate maker reported a profit of 78 cents a share, three cents better than the street was expecting. revenue did miss expectations, it came in at $1.57 billion. the company blaming weaker sales in china. you can see that that stock is up by about 20 cents.

when we return this morning, we're a little more than a half an hour away from the july jobs report. congress expecting an increase of 215,000 non-farm payrolls. we will be right back with our panel of experts. stick around.

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jobs take center stage. special coverage of the july jobs report just minutes away. can the numbers help stop the dow's six-day slide? will it set the stage for a rate hike in september? our special jobs panel is here and ready to talk numbers, the issues facing the economy, and most importantly, what it means for your money. plus, cleveland rocked. the first republican debate is in the books. which candidates stood out, and which could fall by the wayside? former chief of staff under president obama bill daly will join us with his reaction straight ahead. it is jobs friday. the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ yes, yes. i know you think you're looking at a digital clock. but in fact, you are looking at the labor department in washington, d.c.

the labor department in washington, d.c. if you don't know what time it is, you do now. that's where the numbers are a half-hour or something. exactly at 8:30, we're going to get those numbers. welcome back to "squawk box." maybe you didn't see earlier, but becky quick is here. andrew is off. but the guy in north korea decided he doesn't like the time zone because everybody else has it. >> i think he said to get away from japanese imperialism, but it sounds like he's doing it to create his own time zone. >> i think he ought to go 12 hours. just go crazy. with 30 minutes, it's like a half measure. we're less than 90 minutes away from the opening bell. the futures right now down 15 points, waiting, waiting, and watching and digesting the -- what did we call it, a food fight, a knife fight, or just a

wonderful exercise in democracy that we all went through. did you stay up and watch it? >> i did watch some of it. but the main thing is i watched it with my son. and rolled "the star-spangled banner." my son was like -- we just came back from going out. and he said, dad, the debate's on. let's go watch. >> we watched it with the girls. >> and god bless america, he's watching. that's all i care about. >> that's good. check out the markets in europe this hour. which were all red earlier. now we've got the ftse surging, .01% like temperatures last year. anyway, becky, what other stories are there? >> well, joe, let me tell you. there are a couple of things we'll be watching. it's all about jobs the next half-hour or so. the u.s. economy is expected to have added 215,000 jobs in july. the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 5.3%. of course, that's close to a seven-year low. average hourly wages are expected to gain some steam. of course, wages have been stagnant so far this year.

but they are looking for an uptick of 0.2% for the month of july. also, billionaire investor carl icahn is at it again. icahn disclosing he holds an 8.2% stake in cheniere energy. he says the shares were undervalued. and berkshire hathaway reports after the close today. warren buffett and company expect positive impacts from the insuran insurance, finance, and energy sectors. higher expenses from railroad operations could put a lid on results. >> a few stocks on the move this morning. the chip maker posted a surprise rise in revenue on strong demand. monster beverage, though, reported disappointing results for the second quarter. it was the strong dollar and some issues with distribution, the energy drinks makers as the companies transition to its partnership with coca-cola is

occurring. coke owns a percentage of monster. they fell 2% in after hours trading. the latest release of the jobs data is now about 26 minutes away. 26 minutes. i'm not even going to try because it keeps changing. let's talk markets. the state of the economy. and what the fed may do in september. mark zandi is in studio. looking good. >> how are you? >> fine-looking man. >> thank you so much. >> you're welcome. barbara reinhard. a lot of people think she looks like austan goolsbee, but much better looking than austan goolsbee. >> mbarbara reinhard, managing director at credit suisse. kevin hassett is economic director at the american enterprise -- austan's here? right after i just said that? >> thanks a lot, joe. >> i apologize.

i knew you were here. austan goolsbee, former council of economic advisers. and chairman and economics professor at the chicago school of business and strategic partner at our friend wolfy's firm. welcome, one and all. you want to go around the horn again? >> is that what you want me to do? >> i was joking earlier, mark. >> about what? >> yesterday and today. 2: 215? that's the big surprise number? all the economists mailed it in. they need a number. 215. >> there's actually truth to that. >> i know! they didn't do any work on this. >> here's the thing -- >> what's yours come up with? >> 233. >> see, they didn't do the work. >> i did not, mark. you know i have a model. >> i don't want to be 215. >> my error rate without regard to sign is plus or minus 50,000 over the last five years. >> and rounding, though -- >> it's exactly 50.

>> your adp was weak? >> it was weak. >> so where are you on this? >> 215. [ laughter ] >> where are you going on vacation? >> he's already there. job growth has been remarkably stable. some months a little lower. some a little higher. >> you have that shift down. you were 260 last year. now you're running a little bit over two right now. the interesting question is to think about how much you really need to soak up slack in the economy. and it may be as low as 100. so that question, right? becomes what is sufficient for the fed to hike, if you get there. and i think if the fed were honest and not political, the number could be as low as 150. >> what's your number, 215? >> no. >> 214.5? >> our number is 205.

we're looking for 205, because we do believe there is -- as the unemployment rate starts to fall, you know, you're going to see the numbers coming in lower and lower. there's less slack in the labor market. but i think the point that steve made was very important, that the fed changed their language. the word "some" was put into their statement. they need to see some improvement and that indeed does lower the bar. so we're at 205, which is right near the three-month moving average, which is about 208. and we think it's likely that the fed does indeed go in september. >> you need 100 k per month. so if you're at 200k, you're double the pace. >> i just made that number up. that's why there's so much pressure on the fed. >> austan, you're not here. >> what do you mean i'm not here? >> you're not on set, so i'm

going to kevin first. if you can't make the effort -- >> it's also fair because austan's model is my choice minus 10,000, isn't it, austan? >> i just have to correct for kevin's bias. but other than that, pretty accurate. >> but again, i didn't just make it up. i ran the model. and my model said 183 and i rounded it to 180. i think we've got to pause. it's not just the economists that are pausing. but the thing that i see, i think, is that people, especially capital formation, is holding off, waiting to see what the fed does. there's just kind of superstition that when the fed move goes, the whole world might fall apart. so i think we have to get across that threshold. consumption is fine, but for the other parts of growth to pick up. i think the fed gets it. i could see this number being weak and that that might actually accelerate the chance that the fed moves in september because they recognize they need to get moving, get people past this superstitious moment, where

if we go over the threshold, the world might end. i think mark and i still expect a strong second half. we've been talking about it all year. but right now, it looks like there's a pause. >> so where are you? >> i'm low. i was at 202. if i knew kevin was going to be lower than me, i i would have lowered my number. but the thing is, we're waiting for the world to fall apart. the world's already falling apart. i mean, look at china, look at europe. we're running out of people to hire in the united states and the growth rate. we whiffed on the gdp. we whipped on inflation. we may very well whiff on jobs. so why is the fed itching to get back to normal? i just think there's not much loss to wait another two months to figure out whether the conditions are going to get worse. why blow your credibility in the form of we're going to announce a rate increase and might have to pull a sweden and reverse it in a few months. >> but also, what's the difference between now and two

months from now? you'll still have problems in china and europe. and come up with something to say well, why didn't we wait another two months? >> well, they should wait until conditions warrant. that's exactly what i've been saying. we have been getting together in this very panel. and the forecast that we're going to have massive job growth and massive gdp growth starting in six months have been proven wrong again and again and again. >> that's not right, austan. >> 200k is massive job growth. that's double the pace you need to absorb the working age population. >> i would say that's modest growth. >> it's growth. it's improvement. but it's modest. >> there's an important point that goes along with this. because it's kind of back and forth on ism numbers, on average hourly earnings, that's the reason that the u.s. equity market has really struggled this year. there hasn't been a decisive break to the upside nor the downside, which is why it's been

such an unsatisfying year. >> why did the market double the previous? we didn't have it either. you're not getting any benefits from zero, so you might as well go up. >> the other issue -- >> you had earnings growth. >> and you also had quantitative easing. so now you stop qe in the u.s. you had a struggling equity market this year, although there have been some things to do in terms of style bias. >> right. it's been dollar and oil, the only thing not growing. >> but that's also why you've had very low volatility. this is the first year that you've not had a move in the vix. even with greece and china, the vix only went up from a trough to a peak. >> the market can climb a wall of worry if it has something to hang on to and it can be economic growth, it can be earnings. really over the last several years, it's been both.

there's room for them to move down. if you have the positive economic growth but flattish earnings, there's a way to invest. >> i want to go back to a point austin was making. you were saying you don't think there's been enough job growth. i'm looking up stuff on the internet. democrats pointing out that there have been 12.8 million private sector jobs created in the last 64 months. they are saying this is a huge point of pride. this is something that shows that jobs are here and that they've done a good job. are you saying that they haven't? austan? >> yeah, you're the man. >> i think -- as i've said many times, we've made substantial progress. the economy has grown at a modest pace. not blockbuster. not we've turned the corner and everything's back to normal. but not bad. if you watch the republican debate last night, you would have thought we were in the second great depression. it hasn't been either of those things. we've had slow, steady progress.

not any faster than that. >> how far below employment levels are we still, kevin? 12.8? >> yeah, for employment to population. they increase the tax on capital. >> but yet the private economy has grown 3% per annum. >> you're reaping your rewards for this crappy policy, austan. >> like the old bugs bunny cartoon where the guy brings the dog in that can walk and talk. >> going in the ditch. now i'm driving it out. >> we always end up two and a half. >> private sector gdp -- >> talk to him.

>> strip out government. 3% per annum is about as -- you know, that's great. >> that's a call. >> a lot of quick action government since the stimulus. >> yeah, you need the stimulus because you had 10% unemployment and the economy was falling apart. >> what place is this recovery? let's look at all the recoveries. what place is this recovery? >> dead-last. >> i don't know what it is. but it's not dead-last. >> and the bigger question, it doesn't call for -- >> you're three million above the 2000 employment level. three million jobs over. we are going to continue this conversation, but when we come back, corporations are looking to beef up their cyber defense systems.

the problem is finding cyber specialists. our mary thompson takes a look at where the jobs are right after this. plus, the jobs report just a few minutes away. we'll have more from our panel including predictions. we'll talk about other stuff, too. "squawk box" will be right back. and why stop what you're doing to find a bathroom? with cialis for daily use, you don't have to plan around either. it's the only daily tablet approved to treat erectile dysfunction so you can be ready anytime the moment is right. plus cialis treats the frustrating urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, get medical help right away for an erection lasting more than four hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or any symptoms of an allergic reaction, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away.

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cyber attacks pretty much a daily occurrence for most corporations, with hackers seeks ways to access their valuable data, companies are beefing up their cyber defenses. that is generating big demand for budding and established cyber warriors. mary thompson has more from herndon, virginia, in our latest installment of where the jobs are. mary, good morning. >> reporter: good morning to you, becky. first of all, let's ask the question, how great is demand for cyber warriors? well, michael brown, who is the ceo of semantec estimates that by 2019 there will be six million cyber security jobs around the globe. the problem is there are only going to be four and a half million people with the skills to fill them. so filling that gap is going to take years, that according to the ceo of the job analytics firm burning glass technology. that's because a cyber specialist needs both technical

chops and expertise in the industry that they work for such as health care or defense. >> 84% of cyber security jobs require a college degree. 70% of them acquire mull approximately years of experience. in a field that really didn't exist multiple years ago. so as a result, we're seeing a real gap in the amount of talent that there is to fill these jobs. >> now, another hurdle cyber specialists need to clear, certain certifications, some of which can be achieved only with three to five years experience. positions for cyber jobs are up 90% in the last five years, fueled by demand from financial health care and retail firms. postings for these jobs growing at three times the rate for other i.t. positions, and as you might imagine, that means that these people can command a premium when it comes to salary. on average, they make $84,000 a year, that's 9% more than your typical i.t. position. now, speak to anyone at

semantech and they'll tell you how competitive it is to recruit the proper people for these jobs. so coming up on "squawk on the street," we'll tell you about a program that they have developed to create a pipeline of workers that can fill these cyber security jobs. back to you. >> okay, mary. like that shot. coming up, final predictions from our panel, and the number of the month, will it set the stage for the fed to raise rates in september? the numbers and reaction are just ahead. stay tuned. ♪

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welcome back. the last few minutes before the jobs number hits. our panel is barbara reinhard, kevin hassett, mark zandi, austan goolsbee, rick santelli is standing by, steve is here, and rick, you haven't weighed in yet on what you think the market is anticipating and what it does, let's say the number comes in at under 200,000. what happens to the market then? >> i think there's a chance it could come out under 200,000. energy jobs were kind of ignored and nobody really helped them. but they motivated much of the job creation. the energy sector has true -- you know, true free market principles, supply, demand. it's doing what markets are supposed to. i think it affects employment, but that's okay. rather have that than puppeteers. i do think in general that interest rates are going to be pressured down, because the

global economy has issues. the chinese don't spend that kind of money for no reason at all. i think the fed has to raise rates. if for no other reason than coming down the pipe is going to be many reasons potentially to need to bring more accommodation, and what are they going to do for an encore performance at zero? bring negative rates to the united states of america? no way. >> what happens today? what's the knee jerk reaction in the markets if the number is, let's say, 250,000? >> if the number is low, the equity guys are going to get the po pompoms out and start cheering. >> does that mean if the number is strong you think the mark sells off into that? >> yes, and i don't think fed fund futures can tell you percentages at this point, but if they are lower on the day, an hour after the numbers out, that will be your interpretation. what will be associated with stronger data and the investors will be a little nervous about the fed. it doesn't mean their nervousness is well-founded, but

we're all just pavlivian dogs and their notion is to make the market dance, dance, dance. >> definitely can't raise any time soon. pav we're still cleaning up the mess. which administration was that, austan? >> lincoln. it was lincoln. >> lincoln? was lincoln a republican? no, that was a mistake, i think. i think the democrats have adopted him. are you gone, austan? >> no, i'm not gone. i'm just listening. >> which mess are we still cleaning up, causing us to be below plan with this recovery? whose mess was that? >> 1913, start there. >> i didn't blame any president. you filled that in. it was a bubble popping. we've got to shift what the economy is doing. that's the mess that's got to be cleaned up. >> but definitely not time to go above zero, even though we're

5.4% unemployment and mark zandi says we've been growing at 3%. >> if you whiff on gdp and inflation and jobs, why are you raising rates? that's my question. >> you got my number wrong. i'm 205 not 250. >> it would be more interesting if you were at 250. >> rick, i was trying to get you to yell at austan. i guess that only works with leasing. >> no, no, no. >> come on, be nice to him. >> all right, everybody. hold on. these predictions are in at this point. now it is time to see which panel member may actually hit the number. july jobs report is on the other side of this break. once again, take a look at the futures before we get the number. market down by about 20 points for the dow. down by about 2.5 points for the

s&p. becom "squawk box" will be right back. ♪

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welcome back, everybody. we are just a few seconds away from the july jobs report. the number that we're looking for is 215,000.

the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 5.3%. take a look at what's been happening with the futures as we go into this. all morning long, we've been sitting just around the flat lining because traders are obviously waiting to see what happens with this number. it is important. hampton pearson is standing by at the labor department with those numbers now. hampton? >> 215,000, july non-farm payrolls, increased by 215,000 jobs. the unemployment rate is 5.3%, average hourly earnings increased 0.2%. right in line with consensus, private sector adding 205,000 jobs. may and june revisions, an additional 14,000 jobs over the two-month period than what had been previously reported. job gains, retail, plus 36,000. health care up 28,000. professional and technical services 27,000. food services and drinking places, 29,000.

another interesting feature here, manufacturing increased by 15,000 in the month of july. that's the biggest one-month gain in that sector since the first of the year. losses basically mining and logging down 4,000. temporary help losing just under 9,000 jobs. the labor force participation rate remains unchanged at 62.6%. the total real unemployment rate 10.4%. it is the lowest month since june of 2008. long-term unemployed, 2.2 million. 26.9% of the total unemployed. back to you. >> well, that proves it. that pruf proves that these gu didn't do any work. they've never gotten it right. >> i thought you were going to say the bls is on vacation, joe. >> that's so funny. exactly 215.

>> so the fed has to raise rates. >> they do? >> september, they've got to raise rates. if you're over 200k, average workweek increased. >> that was one good thing. >> i mean, double the rate you need for the working age population. i mean, now's the time. >> the word "some" improvement. >> and he didn't have the number one when he was on. or lockhart didn't know this number, did he? >> they get a piece of it perhaps on tuesday. maybe the manufacturing sector, whether or not a governor like powell knows it is unclear to me, but it does go over to the fed. >> i don't think so. >> when i was there, it was the night before.

>> they get a piece of the manufacturing report, is my understanding. >> you get it the night before, right? >> it will come in in the afternoon sometimes, but you really crunch through the full numbers. >> and the ch calls the fed and tells him what the number is. >> guys, check out the euro in the back. you have the euro down to below 109 right now. and the two-year now, you have the euro there. there's the euro right now. it was 109 going in. and the two-year is a nice-looking el capitan chart from yosemite to '71 to '73. that is baking in, i think, at least a 25 basis point hike. it's been a little bit behind. it was 71 just before the number. and it doesn't seem like a lot. it's not my job to throw to rick, but maybe we should throw to rick to get a feel for what's going on down there.

>> rick? >> fed fund futures have sold off. the short rate side selling off, and all those are giving you a glimpse that in investors' minds, maybe they're actually going to raise rates. now, whether they do or not, i can't tell you. i don't think anybody truly knows. but the market is assuming that that number, as expected, shot out the double doors is enough to keep the myth at least for now going, that they can raise. and the dollar -- i know steve pointed to the euro accurately. but the dollar index for sure is only motivated right now by the notion that if you're a currency, you kind of like to put your elbows around higher rates. >> what's happening with the dollar and the pound? there's a bit of a race going on or a question out there. who goes first? carney or yellen? is it ladies first, or does

carney do the gentlemanly thing and go first on his own? >> down here, they really do think carney is first. my own personal opinion is that this is going to be like -- you know, they're going to be looking at each other's desk trying to hide what they're doing. i personally think it's going to ping-pong back and forth, not on who's more aggressive, but who's going to be using words versus actions. i do think the u.s. personally, if they go and when they go, i think they will go first. >> you still think they're not going? you said the myth. >> i will stick to my bet of $100 to the charity or choice that we made in 2014. i don't think they're going. it would be a bet that literally i would just enjoy losing much more than winning. because i really do think that at some point, it will be nice to look at the markets and the price on these boards and think that it came out of interaction of a group versus somebody's brain in d.c. or other spots

around the world. >> do you think they actually raise it at this point? >> yeah, i think you've seen almost all the fed governors explain they want to raise rates. they were just itching to find some cover to raise rates. i just hope that they don't either raise them too rapidly or convince the market that they're going to raise them too rapidly. so i think they probably do raise the rates, but they either background or even say at the press conference they have no intention to raise them again any time at the next meeting, maybe it will be every other meeting. >> if we're running at 200,000 per month and you extrapolate out six to 12 months from now, and there's no reason to believe growth rates are going to slow. so by this time next year, you're at full employment. and the train is still running at a pretty rapid pace. so the odds are now rising pretty quickly that you get into next year, into 2017.

we're going to be beyond full employment. >> i just don't see how we avoid that. the economic train doesn't just go magically from 200k down to 100. >> here are the numbers. those are good numbers for retail, especially outside of the christmas season. and yet all i hear is the story about the weakness of the consumer. are you telling me the retail employers have it wrong, or is the consumer doing better because they're hiring people to serve them? >> if you look at real retail sales, real retail sales are going above trend. i think this myth that the consumer has been dead is not the case. took maybe a pause or a rest at the beginning of the year, which is somewhat of a surprise.

>> maybe spending in different places than traditionally. car sales have been very strong. restaurant, dining out. >> which was a big bit of growth in jobs and also the stronger dollar. so these are things that have hurt. >> once going on is the money spending at the gas station, they are going out and spending. >> austin says to be careful. why austin? >> the reason i think you want to be careful is we had a so-so growth number for the gdp in 2014. but we had a blockbuster jobs year. and that's because we had negative productivity. now, if negative productivity continues, then yes, we will continue to have very strong jobs numbers, even though we're not growing that fast. >> jobs will slow down.

>> i didn't hear any of this then. >> oh come on, rick, yes, you did. >> productivity wasn't negative. >> you were telling everybody the economy was great! this is awesome! >> let barbara weigh in here. >> there's one other piece that everyone's missing. the rest of the world is doing better, not china. but europe is certainly doing better than it was this time last year and that is a fundamental change at the margin. >> there's nothing but tail winds. you're creating a boat load of jobs. wage growth is if anything is accelerating. debt about as low as they've ever been. consumers have locked in. >> what happens if productivity

kicks back up to something normal? >> that would be terrific. >> what kind of debbie downer juice is in the water in chicago? >> it will redo the number. that's the answer. redo the number! productivity is too low! >> obviously this conversation is running out of steam. we'd like to thank our panel, thank you everybody for coming in today. that number, 215,000, just as expected by economists. 5.3% for unemployment. up next, how should you be trading this jobs number? jim paulsen will be joining us after the break to talk jobs, the economy, and the market losing streak that we've seen recently. check out the futures in reaction to the jobs number. market down, doing what rick said he thought it might do. sell off if the numbers were a good number in line with expectations on concerns that the fed will now go ahead and raise interest rates next time around. dow futures down by about 45 points. the nasdaq down by 16. "squawk box" will be right back.

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you have been right that the market would be flat all year. you look at these numbers, and pretty decent numbers. what do you think happens next? >> well, i think it certainly puts september in play.

keeps it in play. the real issue for the market is not so much when the fed starts raising rates finally. i think the bigger issue is once they start that process, how fast they have to do it. even janet yellen has said that. what this really comes down to are factors that surround the pace which the fed is going to have to raise rates. if the market starts to think the fed is behind the curve or if we start to get evidence of some cost pushing pressures as we near full employment, then the start of this process will be more damaging for the stock market. if it is indeed methodical or well-controlled, it's probably not going to be that big a deal. i lean a little towards the former. some of the things that i guess i'm watching here over the next -- as we start this process, i'll be watching the imbedded inflation expectations and tips. i'd be looking out for the reaction of the bond market

itself, what the ten-year and the two-year are doing. are they moving faster than the fed wants to move? i'd be looking at the dollar. if that rather than goes up as everyone expects, if it starts to come off, that would be concerning. i think commodity prices, which have been beat down so mightily, if they get a bounce in here right at the same time the fed is starting this process, that could be concerning. >> there's a lot of ifs. those are the things that you've been talking about for a while. you arrived at a flat market and you've been right about the economy being stronger than everyone thought. but you've been wrong on commodities. and i don't think on wage push type inflation and wages rising. and we're still waiting. and now you're saying the same stuff. that once these commodities do start surging, once the dollar does start weakening, but there's a problem. but it's way late for what you were thinking. >> i agree, joe. i mean, i have. it's been much later than i

thought. >> right on the market, though, which is all that mattered. >> right. i mean, i think the market has been vulnerable, still is. and that's kind of the issue here. you've got a highly valued market. you've got a calm sentiment. a need to reset rates whenever that comes. you've also got an earnings cycle that's very mature already, and already starting to slow down. i think that it's that vulnerability then that makes the possibility of reaching full employment and having some issues somewhat concerning as an investor. you're absolutely right. i thought this would happen much sooner. it hasn't. but i tell you what, if that unemployment rate keeps marching towards 5%, it's not like the issue is going to go away. >> and that's the point mark zandi was just making, too. >> yeah. you know, i do notice, too, becky, you talk about investment. as this starts to look more like september, you are starting to

see more of the cyclical stocks pick up again. in the last few weeks, you've seen the material stocks, even the energy stocks do better. the industrial stocks have had a really nice pop. some of the growth leadership i noticed. the biotechs have started to come off a little bit. i think that signaled a tenure change. >> didn't you elect jesse ventura? >> we did. and i've got to admit, joe, that this trump phenomena seems a lot like the jesse phenomena in minnesota. you've got these two family patriarchs on the left and the right, the bush and the clinton that are stereotypical politicians, and then you've got this guy that's anything but. that's kind of what happened here in minnesota. no one thought that jesse would ever get elected and he ended up winning. >> bowas and all.

and then you had around, too. greg davis was like some well-established guy, and the next thing you know, the terminator was -- so who knows, right? >> we had the same thing here in minnesota for governorship. two well-established political -- and then we had jesse ventura. i think it's happening on the republican party as well. >> yeah, you hope so. knowing you. thanks, paulsen. see you later. >> thanks. when we return, bill daly has worked on both wall street and at the white house. everybody's been in wall street and politics these days. chief of staff to president obama. joins us after the break with reaction to last night's debate. ♪ i built my business with passion. but i keep it growing by making every dollar count. that's why i have the spark cash card from capital one. i earn unlimited 2% cash back on everything i buy for my studio. ♪ and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands

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with an app from ibm, officers can now access over a billion police documents to find hidden connections, and identify potential suspects. ibm analytics helps one hundred thousand officers work smarter every day. welcome back, everybody. for more reaction to last night's debate, we are joined by bill daily. he's the former chief of staff under president clinton. welcome. >> thank you. >> we'll talk about the jobs

report. it came in where we were expecting. where do you think this means in terms of where we stand in the economy and what the fed is going to do next? is it going to be something they end up raising rates next month? >> i think they will. i think there's plenty of evidence for them to do that. i think the whole question becomes soon how high and whether it will set a pattern. will they continue to do that on a quickened pace as your former guest talked about. i think it would be hard for them not to take action at this point and i know the fed is nonpolitical and they don't make decisions but remember, we're getting into a heated political year next year. so any action they do, like it or not, they're going to fall into this political madness that goes on as we get into serious primary fights and into a general election. if i was there, i'd say put your toe in the water and begin to do this so all of a sudden you're

not doing it later in the year closer to the elections and become more political or perceived political. that could be a big problem for the fed. >> that almost sounds like they'd be doing something political to make it not look political. >> they can't win but in '92 there was criticism for not lowering rates buduring the bus hillary clint clinton thing. there was a cut in rates even before 9/11. if you look at the raw data, i think there's no question they should be raising begins and beginning to do this and do it rather soon. >> let's talk about the fun debate. the debate last night. what did you think? >> i thought it was an entertaining two hours. maybe i'm a junkie around the stuff. i thought fox did a hard for me to say, a really good job.

i thought their three reporters kept it moves. the type of questions they asked directed at some. they didn't let anyone really filibuster. i thought it moved well. i thought the expected -- they expected everyone to play their roles. rubio, he probably made the most points. had a story to tell in each of his answers. i think bush played the role of the senior tortoise in this race. >> you say presidential too. >> you're such a good guy. that's why you didn't fit in with chief of staff. you had to get out of there fast. >> i thought i fit in well. >> that's why you're not welcome back. you're not supposed to say bush. >> i think there are a lot of people on that stage who may lose to hillary, and on the stage before. >> the same ones i think. but you're supposed to do the

opposite. because you're a strategist. >> my problem maybe is that i'm a little too honest sometimes. >> weren't you from chicago? were you in politics there? >> yeah. and i think we're pretty direct as opposed to a lot of people in washington. at least in chicago if someone's going to do it, they do it in the stomach and not in the back like they do in washington. >> what do you think in terms of trump? he took on some tough questions last night. how did he fair? >> if i was one of the other candidates, i'd want to debate a week. i don't think he stands up over any time. i don't. that stick is fun and entertaining. it's like when the gong show was popular but at some point he really has to say you build a wall, take the wall. for 20 2 -- 2,000 miles, how are you going too pay for it?

>> immigration -- the pundits have been writing fing about ita long time. >> the gong show lasts two years. but at some point people will say who can be the next president of the united states. and when people go to vote for president, they do believe that's a serious decision. in a primary or in a general election. >> how about just wiretapped terrorists, not regular people, and whenever you do want to do that, get a warrant first. how is that going to work? there were ridiculous things said on all quarters last night. >> when you've got ten different personalities, if everyone is trying to get a slice of the paul, i think i'm a different republican. great, but you may be different from most of america. >> what about christie?

>> i don't think he made points with paul but i don't think he differentiated himself. i thought rubio did. i thought he was powerful in his answers. calm, cool. i thought he was pretty impressive for the first go round. >> bill, love having you here. have a good one. >> you too. >> that does it for us. have a great weekend, everybody. it's time for "squawk on the street." good friday morning. i'm carl quintanilla with david faber, and simon hobbs. jim is off today. the jobs number electrical perfectly in line. a solid 215,000 unemployment at 5.3%. does it mean we're on track for a september rate hike? we'll get to that and more. a ten-year around 2.22. oil continues to lag under $45 a