with paul but i don't think he differentiated himself. i thought rubio did. i thought he was powerful in his answers. calm, cool. i thought he was pretty impressive for the first go round. >> bill, love having you here. have a good one. >> you too. >> that does it for us. have a great weekend, everybody. it's time for "squawk on the street." good friday morning. i'm carl quintanilla with david faber, and simon hobbs. jim is off today. the jobs number electrical perfectly in line. a solid 215,000 unemployment at 5.3%. does it mean we're on track for a september rate hike? we'll get to that and more. a ten-year around 2.22. oil continues to lag under $45 a barrel. the jobs number, more market

reaction. >> plus on media week selloff, subscriber losses, advertiser declines weighing on companies. >> and the morning after we'll recap the gop's best debate moments last night, the big winners and the losers. >> first up, the jobs number. the u.s. economy added 215,000 jobs in that month. unemployment remains unchanged at 5.3%. we've been watching wage growth average hourly earnings up by five cents. that's about 2.1 on the year. just a smidge below the estimates. the unemployment rates, 5.261% is not far from being rounded down to 5.2%.

>> coming into this, i think a lot of, you have this core set of economists saying you don't need a strong number. you need a weak one to put it back. the interesting question for the next couple of hours is how many stock market participants are there with those economists that a rate rise is coming. if they're not there, notable monitors of sentiment, if they're not there, if they make that transition, what will that mean for the stock market over the next month or so? >> what a crazy week it's been. greece reopening, getting cut in half. oil near the lows of the year. there's a lot going wrong this week. >> apple down $35 billion on the week. >> it's been a very difficult week for investors and to the extent that we discussed rates, some of these yield plays have been hit hard this week as well. you look at mlps.

we talked about the pipeline related mlps getting crushed. it was oil first. then they moved onto semi conductors. we've talked a lot about the incredible melt down that took place in the media stocks and yesterday health care seemed to be getting hit. not that many places to hide. perhaps a difficult week for those in hedge funds than those invested in the general market but pain was, i think, one of the words when it came to the equity market this week. >> it is some of it. it's august. august is a tricky trading time. the volumes on apple were big. you can say you're getting an outsider's reaction but that was big volume earlier in the week. more on the jobs report. please bring in lindsey, chief economist and david kelly, chief global strategist at jpmorgan. lindsey, what's your take away

from the jobs report? >> i found this quite disappointing. certainly you can make the argument that upwards revisions helped compensate for that miss but we have to recognize that after a 260,000 rise in may, payroll momentum has slowed for two consecutive months falling down toward the 200,000 level which is the bare minimum. not the type of improvement that the fed was hoping for to justify a near term rate increase. >> what lindsey does identify is the way in which our expectations have dropped for the economy from where we were at the tail end of last year and the type of growth we hoped for, despite that, this appears to be good enough, they say, for the fed to hike, correct? >> i think the fed is still on track for september. i'd like to see 300,000 jobs per month as opposed to 200,000, but the labor force goes to 69,000.

we're creating more jobs than workers right now. that is still tightening the labor market. and we also saw a decline in people working part-time who would like to work full-time. by the metrics that janet yellen looks at, there's further improvement. i think the fed and the economy is on track. >> i think we have taken steps in the right direction in terms of the labor market. we've seen over 50 consecutive months but the pace of hiring remains insufficient as we've not yet seen the pool of available labor drawn down enough to spark wage pressures. we look at average hourly earnings on an annual basis, 2 %. >> do you think there won't be a rate rise? >> i don't think they have enough justification. looking at inflation, we're still in a deflationary environment. >> how do you expect roughly in the middle of the pack of the

voting pack, when lockhart said it's hard not to raise rights in september. >> that's an individual committee member's opinion. we've also heard from evans out of chicago continuing to talk about the first rate increase as a likely 2016 event. lockhart being the only hawk on the voting committee this time around. he's going to have a more hawkish tilt in his language but if we look at the competition of the fed, it's dovish. looking at inflation, very sluggish. the labor market showing no further improvement. i don't think there's enough to justify a rate increase just six weeks from now. >> if i know you, you wanted them to move a long time ago. does that kind of talk drive you crazy? >> i think the key thing is to recognize how little labor supply we have. this is not a goldilocks economy. 200,000 jobs in this kind of

economy does represent improvement. we saw an increase in average hours and a decline in people working part-time. we saw another 212,000 jobs created. it's pretty good and i don't want the fed to wait too long. that's a classic mistake they make. they always wait too long. i don't think there are a lot of good, available workers out there anymore. >> i think the big unanswered question for many of us over the coming sessions is going to be if they're going to hike, regardless of whether you think they should, if they're going to hike in september, are equity market participants there. clearly you're not. as a broad equity investors, if they get a rise sooner than they thought, how will the market react? >> i think it will depend on how the fed indicates the further rate increases. lift off of 25 basis points does

not mean they're going to initiate a 2004 tightening style where they continued to raise it at every meeting. t going to depend on the fed's communication with the market to emphasize a very slow and gradual pace of rate increases over the next several years. >> david, this week it feels as if we lost momentum in the equity market. we have gains for the s&p 500 for the year as we enter the beginning of august or the end of august, and yet, still, there's that perception that maybe people are beginning to take money off the table. what's your view? >> we have a lack of good news here. we're still waiting on the fed and that's not necessarily good news when they begin to raise rates. we have problems coming out of asia. there's a lot of weakness in emerging markets. pmi indices. you have certain sectors like as you saw the media stocks taking a hit. it's a bit weak right now but overall when we think about it, if interest rates rise, there's

a lot of cash that needs to be put to work. where else is it going to go? i think that when we get some of this uncertainty about the fed, uncertainty is poison to the market. if you're uncertain if the fed goes down, with one rate hike and then they make clear we're going to see a very gradual lift off to rates, once they lay that out, that reduces uncertainty. that might allow the market to move higher between now and the end of the year. >> let's hope so. thank you both for joining us. last night's debate, both of them, generating a lot of buzz. john is with us this morning. good morning to you. what's the headline today? >> reporter: well, i think the headline still in the republican party is donald trump. he went into that debate as the center of attention, carl. he was at the center throughout the evening. even under tough questioning that fox moderators when he was

examined about bankruptcies within the empire, he said everybody uses the bankruptcy code to make successful business transactions or make them work out successfully and he came back and said what the country needs is somebody like me. >> by the way, this country right now owes $19 trillion and they need somebody like me to straighten out that mess. >> reporter: we also had a moment that i've never seen before in a partisan debate. when he was asked to declare that he's feelty to the republican nominee even if it wasn't him, he wasn't playing. >> we're looking for you to raise your hand now if you won't make that pledge tonight. mr. trump. >> i don't know. >> you hear the calling from the audience there. donald trump wouldn't pledge to be the supporting the nominee.

even in the under car debate with the seven lagging candidates, carly fiorina used donald trump as her lift off point to separate he's from the rest of the pack. >> i don't know. i didn't get a phone call from bill clinton before i jumped in the race. did any of you get a phone call? i didn't. >> now, as for the others, scat walker had a solid performance. marco rubio was also very good and john kasich, the last qualifier, the last one to make the cut, home state governor in ohio was very energetic. he may have helped himself more than anybody else. >> john, obviously carly fiorina lit up the social media in the first debate. i know you tweeted that kasich probably got the biggest bang for his buck last night. the new york post today says rubio won. what do you think can walk away the happiest thing?

>> reporter: i think walker, rubio and kasich all walk away happy. kasich started lowest and lifted himself up. rubio has been lagging a little bit as trump as taken over the attention. he put himself squarely back into the conversation. it will be interesting to see the aftermath of his exchange with meghan kelly when he asked him about rape and incest exemptions. he said he never sponsored there. it turns out there was a bill that had something included with it. scott walker has been presumed to be the alternative to jeb bush when we get to the real finals. he was very solid. not especially dynamic but solid. and jeb bush is one who had a chance to seize more forcefully his slot in the race. i don't think he quite did that. he was okay, and he got better

as the night wore on, but i think jeb bush is going to have to raise his game in the next debate. >> at what point does that become critical for jeb bush, do you think? >> reporter: i think it's starting to get critical now. look, he has raised the most money. he has been the presumed establishment favorite, and he can't let the race drift for mush longer before he reminds people yes, this is why we backed him in the first place. if that doesn't happen, the attention will be the dynamic between donald trump and perhaps rubio and walker, maybe kasich edging into that mix. >> john, a lot oh think about over the weekend. our thanks to you. we'll come back to you later today. when we come back, will the cord cutting continue? available vision out with results. also jason furman will join us with a white house reaction to the jobs numbers.

a down day today for the dow would be seven in a row, something we've not done in four years. more "squawk on the street" from post nine in just a moment.

quarter results. it was largely on the back of price increases and gains in high speed data customers. subscriber growth remains somewhat weak. they lost about 16,000 video subs. this coming to cap. a dramatic week for media stocks. starting with disney, and then continuing fing fall out from f via come. it was about cord cutting and the concerns there, the slimmer bundles and don't forget advertising. we've had two years where the up fronts which take place in the spring were not particularly good. viacom is at the front in terms of seeing decline in ads. cablevision, we'll watch that stock today. there's a bid there at least in the stock because of the idea that at some point al tees,

perhaps it will come for cablevision down the road. i don't expect that any time soon but nonetheless, that has helped those shares climb -- or had a very strong year in fact. the overall numbers for the quarter not too bad. consolidated operating income was down but consolidated net revenues up helped by price increases. they're broad band. that's what these companies are all about but our parent company comcast was a victim. even though it's viewed as a broad band company, they have networks and a cable network. the question being what will the future look like as more and more people do fall off the big ere bundles? it's still going to be a strong business but will it have the margins it's had in the past? what will that mean for a lot of different things, including, perhaps, our salaries. >> who knows?

the interesting thing is it's quite aggressively targeting those who want to cut the cord. hbo is a stand alone. the first to do that. >> it is one of many companies trying to keep the customer relation. there is a lot of value in that bundle not just to programming but when it's linked with broad band and sometimes with your phone at home as well. the cable stocks took it a bit this week but it was largely -- >> it's a content provider story. >> it is the con kent provitent that suffered. we have an upgrade of time warrener this morning. they point out that in their opinion, the multiple becomes lower. i don't expect you'll see a lot of value investors trade into these names but a resetting of

expectations and therefore the multiple that should be accorded some of these stocks perhaps with some more muted stocks. we've been talking about this for years. >> this morning, just briefly, you want to see it in europe, the big broadcasters in europe in every major country are bound. it's a theme that's now going around the world. >> when we come back, art cashin will join us plus jason furman, the white house's response to the job's report. we'll get you one more look at the futures which are dipping in and out of positive, negative territory. a lot more from "squawk on the street" straight ahead.

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all right. we're about seven minutes before the opening bell. let's bring in art cashin. where am i going to go this morning? there was an employment number. what are your thoughts? >> i thought it was a little bit like paint by the numbers. it came in pretty much on all levels. you had a slight up tick in the wages. that's beneficial. that's somewhat reassuring to the fed. we'll see, but the bond market doesn't seem too spooked by it. the yields on the ten-year are down. i think we're going to have to work our way through it. payroll day has a mild upward bias about 60% history-wise. >> i saw this morning in 2013, 2014, we're up 20 of 24. this year we're down five of six. >> that's because you're getting closer to rate hikes. that's the problem. >> i think the most interesting

dynamic will be whether people like you who are so involved in the stock market will begin to shift to what the economists are saying that there's a rate hike in settlement. you're not there and a lot of other people are not there. will there be a rate hike in september, and if there is, what does that mean for the equity market? >> it will put measupressure on equity markets. first marginal. you have other dynamics here. what's going on in the media stocks. the idea that so many fund managers have underperformed this year, and you're going to see some portfolios being restructured. for now, believe it or not, the fed move is more atmospheric than direct. it may get overwhelmed by other things going on in the markets. >> yesterday ben willis echoed what you were saying about people who were being sacked

were not performing and the liquidati liquidation, not on the underperformance buying stocks doing well but the liquidation of stocks doing badly. which do you think is a more major dynamic? >> the problem is, we've had this discussion since 2008, and that is when you can't sell what you want to sell, you sell whatever you can. in some of these cases, stocks have gotten to sud lin weak, biotechs and other things that people lighten up in the things that have done well. you saw what looked like momentum stocks. >> it kind of roll aid long ted week. it ended with health care this week. >> i think part of the problem is and we discussed this over the last couple of weeks, the amount of cash on hand that mutual funds is at an all time low. and the only thing that's important with that is if the

market begins to sell off and they get redemptions, they have no money so they have to sell other stuff so that becomes a vicious cycle. that's what you don't want to see. >> we'll be watching the opening bell a few minutes from now. thank you. and that opening bell is about four minutes away. stay with us on "squawk on the street." we're back right after this. here at td ameritrade, they love innovating.

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you're watching "squawk on the street" live from the financial capital of the world. the opening bell in just under a minute as we cap off a crazy week. obviously all the pain in media stocks. we continue to watch oil which is flirting with $44 once again. a lot of the momentum names that have been chopped by a third in market cap. etsy, mount mountain and more. and the jobs number, 215,000. the estimate 225,000. and earnings up.2.

about 2.2 year an year. that's in line as signs of inflationary pressure continue to be hard to find in this economy. let's get to the opening bell. at the big board charity water launching a september campaign. getting water to people in developing countries. and the united states coast guard doing the honers. no we have movers this morning. videa is one. they bucked the slow down in the pc market as a lot of people upgrade their existing computers. their current quarter guidance is above expectations. that's going to be one name in this space that we know has been challenged. >> and monster beverage is a top gainer. it fell heavily last night. coke took the stake in monster

beverage. the growth is slowing but a lot of that is attributed to the fact that they're changing to the coke suppliers. it's an inventory effect that they're suffering but some people boyish. there's a belief that they'll be better able to target the products around the world once they're able to distribute from the coke system. >> seeing a little bit of nibbling here in some of the media names. v viacom is the biggest gainer. time warner and others but we know what's happened to those stocks over the last couple of days. >> you could have picked up via k kom yesterday when it was down and it's now $46. having a good open here. we'll see if it can continue that momentum. it's not as though they had a great quarter.

but the stock suffered so much after we heard from disney, something we've discussed at length in terms of a very small sub decline at espn but exacerbating the fears that have been in the marketplace for quite some time that the world is changing is and starting to change rapidly in terms of consumer tastes and how they pay for what they're viewing in terms of big bundles or smaller bundles or an over the top solution overall. what a week. but they're all up at this point but discovery is down and netflix down today. it has been what are we talking, a $53 billion market value. >> lions gate had results and had the same problem as viacom. not a lot of big movies released in the quarter. orange is the new black, hunger

games coming down the road. that's good for a 3% gain. after a miserable couple of days. >> there's always the idea of consolidation whether it's amongst companies like lions gate or some of the other providers that are out there of content that there's a feeling that perhaps they won't have as much market power in this changing world as they had previously. does discovery need to do something or a scrips of an amc. you can go down the list, not to mention viacom and cbs. don't expect anything near term but it's not to be a theme that seem seize on at some point. >> what about the number of cable channels? do we believe they'll stay in volume but become more marginal businesses? do they get sold? >> i think the companies that control them, maybe they slim them down. it depends. i think you probably are looking for opportunities to cut costs

at many of these places. it depends on the network, really. >> right. isn't there a bravado that you couldn't really shut your cable companies down? >> some have been shut or the programming has changed. >> that would be true. >> hershey is going to be a problem. $0.78 beats $0.75 but sales flat. additional promotional spending, they've already cut 300 jobs and they're dealing with higher costs. i'm sure if jim was here, he'd have something to say. >> the stock down 2% this morning. mondelez shares, taking a 7.5% stake. shares are basically where they started the day yesterday. not a huge reaction there to a

decision to put 25% of a fund in one stock. the journal writing today and as i reported yesterday, that if there is an expectation some way down the line or if there is an expectation that 3g controls kraft heinz would come as a potential buyer, you're talking a ways away. that's what i was reporting at this time yesterday. they echoed that as well. sometimes you talk to the same people who tell you the same thing. >> and true car, the founder of true car, the chief executive stepped down last night because of the strange relationship that they've had with some of the dealerships. obviously, they prewarned that things were not as good as people thought. they managed to beat those lowered expectations but true car is down 6% at the open. i see a buy from j and p.

they think you can add 60% from where we are now. some hanging in there on true car with the number of subscribers it has and the business it's generating if not the margins. >> let's get to the jobs numbers. as we said, 215,000 jobs added in july. unemployment rate remains at 5.3. let's go to jason furman, the chairman of the white house council of economic advisors. >> happy friday. >> this was seen as an on target number, a solid number but is it your sense that with the year to date average now 2.11, it'll be hard to get numbers that are well above this? >> you're right. it was very much on target. look, 15 of the last 17 months this economy has created over 200,000 jobs. it is just month after month. keeps adding to those jobs that's bradley bringing the unemployment rate down and

bringing more people back in who weren't in. and the healing of the labor market continues? >> does it make sense to you how earnings are reacting to the jobless rate? there's been some stories this week arguing that the wage as we know it is not the same anymore. instead companies are adding benefits and netflix changed their parental leave policies. are companies not having to increase the amount of money they give us but simply the way they treat us at work? >> we've been encouraged by the companies taking workplace flexibility seriously. we had an event where we took deans across the country and a lot of them agreed part of the importance for the future is making the workplace more attractive to their employees. in addition to benefits, we'd like to see wage growth. we'd like to see more wage growth than we've seen to date

and i think a stronger economy would help and a higher minimum wage would help as well informal. >> i'm sorry. just to recap, you think the higher minimum wage will generate jobs? >> we were talking wage growth. the evidence is it would be higher impact on jobs. >> it's in the nature of things that rightly or wrongly, the administration will take credit for job growth in the same way it would be blamed if it wasn't good. wh what have you done in an environment where the debate we're having is whether the fed will raise interest rates. what effect do you think it will be on the jobs market? >> we leave monetary policy to the federal reserve. we leave them to analyze it and implement it. we talk about fiscal policy, what we can do to cut taxes for

middle class families and some of them are policy like international trade. >> you've done no work on the effective monetary policy on the labor market in this country as a department? >> we take a look at the economy as a whole. we try to understand all the factors impacting the economy, but we're focussed on what we can do over here, not the choices the fed is going to make on their own. >> well, jason, when it comes to infrastructure, for example, which i think has a fairly broad support, nonetheless, there doesn't seem to be a lot of momentum to get anything done. we have a congress that barely managed to extend, i think the highway bill for three months. do you have any expectation as we move deeper into a presidential year that anything can really get done of substance when it comes to infrastructure? >> i think kicking the can is almost a compliment compared to what we've seen congress do lately far few months at a time

with the highway bill. we've had a long term out there. one that authorizes at a higher funding level. hi i've talked to ceos and economists and people across the political spectrum that agree it's the right thing to do for our economy. congress has yet another shot to do it. we've love to see them do it. >> at the debate last night jeb bush was asked whether or not 4 % economic growth is doable. he said it is if we begin by lifting our spirits up. do you think 4 % is in the realm of possibility? >> i haven't seen any serious economists say that that's within the realm of possibility. what our focus is, though, is all the steps we've been talking about to raise growth. we need faster productivity growth. we need to get more people participating in the labor force and i also think president has

an approach of middle class economics. make sure the wages grow for the middle class. it's going to help people work and buy things and expand our economy. there's all sorts of things. are we doing everything we can to strengthen our economy? >> on to that note, give the middle class a pay rise is hillary clinton's rally cry. she put it at the heart of the discussion that she would like to have in reference to the labor movement in this country and the need to strengthen it moving forward. have you done analysis on the sharing economy that the uber and perhaps airbnb and the extend to which that's changing the kind of job security the people have and the wages they could expect through their lifetime? >> it's something that we are taking a look at and are doing analysis on. it's a rapidly developing area of the economy.

a number of these companies are adding jobs that are at a rapid clip. a lot of it doesn't show up in the data so it can be hard to track, exactly, but i think it's a really important issue for not just us in government but economists more broadly to understand better. >> i think the point that hillary clinton is making to paraphrase is it's difficult for workers in that environment to capture as much of the value chain as they had done in the past. is that your reading as well? >> i think innovation is great. i think breaking down artificial barriers to entry can be great for consumers and great for workers but you also have to look at the full set of rules and making sure everyone is playing by the same rules for the economy. and that's what a lot of people are taking a look at right now in this area of the economy and more broadly. >> jason, as always, it's good to see you. thanks for your time. jason furman talking about the

jobs number today. the dow is off about 12 points. apple the best performing component. kourtney reagan is on the floor. >> reporter: good morning. during the interview, things started to get a little better. off the lows of the session so far. we got the jobs report this morning and it could end up that those numbers are just right for rates with september. back on the table for some that had doubted it previous to today's new numbers. if we take a look at the ten-year and the reaction after the jobs report, the yield inched higher and reversed course again. i'm sure rick is going to walk us through that as well. we take a look at what happened overseas. in asia, equities stronger. there was a new report out of the people's bank of china, perhaps it gives more credence that the government is going to have to inject liquidity .

>> in asia, industrial data not great. a bit of movement after the jobs report but not much as all. yesterday consumer discretionary, one of the biggest laggers as well as health care. things have turned around a little bit for the media stocks but maybe only because they're having their worst week since october of 2008. things have started to turn around this morning. in video posting, better than expected earnings as well as re kn -- revenue. this flies in the face of perhaps some of the worries you can see a really nice jump for invid ya at the open of about 10%. allergan posting some positive earnings, getting good reaction. at least three analysts giving price target upgrades to allergan. the shares are down slightly in the early go. take a look at solar panel sun

edison. hitting seven month lows after hitting a quarterly loss. it does look as if it's continuing to do that downward slide around the 17 handle. and brand licensing retailer iconic, the ceo is stepping down from the position to explore other opportunities. shares really falling. this is a company that owns licensing deals like candies. wall street doesn't like that neil cole is stepping away. nomara cutting from buy. and take a look at the food and drink. a number of them moving in a bit of different directions. sprouts down more than 6%. noodles and company down more than 22%. that after earnings of both of them.

bojangles' doing better. david, back to you. >> i don't know what's going on with noodles and company but that's not good either. court n kourtney, thank you. and the biotech sector getting hit. let's get to the bond pits with rick santelli. >> listen, it's all about the curve. it's all about the curve. curve, curve, curve. now, remember, when it comes to trading, perception is all that counts. the perception in trader's minds, especially when it comes to the fed. nobody knows the realty. we're not starting with the ten-year. we're starting with the yield

curve. if you open the chart up, flattest the curve has been since end of april of this year. it isn't a long time but it's covered a lot of ground. let's look at the numbers. we're currently at 73 in twos. up sefage. 1.53. they're up eight. settle at 2.18 on 30s. they are up three. so what we are seeing, 30-year bonds settle at 2.86. all the maturities, yields are up until you get to the 30-year bond but they're up the most in the front of the curve. that says it all. if you look at the short rate, not the currency, the fed fund futures, they describe the same dynamic. the other market to watch to give you the perception of what the fed, at least the words are falling on more risk cog any zant ears is the dollar ears. look at the one-day. the two-day is interesting. we built a consolidation above

yesterday's day and the dollar index as a light glide path because nobody knows the reality. the perception is put at the best levels since mid april of this year and the last chart that we usually start at is ten-year note yields and you can see there's a lot of volatility but they're coming off a bit. bund yields went down after that day the. it isn't a great number to many traders. we've lowered the bar but it's good enough for a fed rate hike should they deliver and that sort of is the big news of the day. simon hobbs, back to you. >> thank you, rick. when we come back, an inflection point for the media industry coming up as double digit losses for viacom, disney. jim stuart will join us with his take. wondering what happened to jim mac aif i? we found him and we'll have parts of an interesting interview.

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oil is still sitting below $45 a barrel. jackie has more and heading lower. >> reporter: good morning. as a matter of fact, on this friday morning the entire energy complex is seeing pressure. part of that is because of the stronger dollar. dollar index over 98 but at the same time traders saying this is technical pressure. the next stop to the downside that we'll test to support level, probably $43.50. not sure it's going to happen today. we do see selling into the weekend but we're looking for rig count numbers. a couple of surprises coming over the last couple of weeks seeing rig numbers increase. we'll get back to you before the close. >> thank you very much. when we come back, more on the

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it's been a particularly

rough week for the index composite. let's get word on that with kate rogers. >> reporter: that's right. the nasdaq really was where the action was at yesterday, closing down at 1.6%. right now we're doing not as poorly. down about a third of 1%. showing progress in a week pc market. that's higher by more than 9%. groupon is also lower today despite the 3 .1% increase. thanks so demand for the daily deals, it's lower by about 3%. apple, it's down around 5% for the week but slightly in the green today. this after the release of apple music numbers. the big stories yesterday were keur keurig's massive fall. that stock has rebounded today. tesla cut its sales force and

that stock is lower today and viacom was down but has rebounded today. >> when we come back, jan, hatzius. a powerful new dell 2-in-1 laptop, and durable new stellar notebooks, so you're walking the halls with varsity level swagger. that's what we call that new gear feeling. you left this on the bus... get it at the place with the experts to get you the right gear. office depot officemax. gear up for school. gear up for great.

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good friday morning. welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with simon hobbs and david faber. taking a look at the markets. dow is down about 28 points. we got the jobs number slightly lower than estimates but everything else almost perfectly in line. the ten-year at 2.222. and happy birthday, sara. i know you'll be watching. the jobs number coming in exactly in line with expectations. many people now believe it means that the fed will hike or start to hike in september. media stocks down big this week

as cord cutting fears persist. jim stuart will give us his take. and a live report from cleveland when we come back. >> later, goldman's chief economist joins us to weigh in on the jobs number and what it could mean in terms of the jobs number and interest rates. and this morning, clearly, steve, they weren't thrown by the adp number. >> the private sector came in above the number of 185. the september rate hike looks to be baked in with a jobs number above 2 00,000. in line with estimates ain and appeared to meet the criteria of further improvement in the labor market. we did math. here's what we came with. 52% probability of a rate hike. that's above the 40 from yesterday. 12 of 12 economists we read and

who we talked to calling now for a september rate hike. two guys wouldn't make the call. we didn't include them in there. here's the data that got them confident in that rate hike. 2. 215 is the number. labor force participation unchanged. let's take a look at where the jobs are. professional and business services up 40,000. and there's retail. it's been above 31 one month in a row. makes me question how weak the consumer can be if retail is hiring the way they have been. l leisure and hospitality up. other areas that gained, including construction, manufacturing. that's another good sign for growth but the bulk of the gains came in the service sector. the only service down is about

9,000. and increasing the chance for a second rate hike in december. the next debate is not about one rate hike but the chance of two rate hikes and i'm thinking that could be the debate on the sud lines at the upcoming town meetings. just when we think we're done thinking about one hike, we need to start thinking about another. >> maybe that's why janet yellen isn't turning up. she doesn't want to go there into that discussion. it seems like -- if they hike, they're going to hike it's over not because the economy is really strong. they just need to get started. they won't do a second one in the year, will they? >> they could. there's a bunch of jobs and data along the way. if you make the argument that zero is not right, 25 basis

points or what will be, by the way, everybody should be really because it's really 37 basis points, the new target range from the fed. it's kind of hard to make an argument that it should be that low. >> because you get to an unemployment rate by tend of the year below 5%. >> exactly. and in the fed's way of viewing the world, inflation comes through employment. it comes through higher wages. it comes through slack being reduced and that would be their concern about inflation. >> we'll leave it there for the moment. thank you. michael hansen is a senior u.s. economist, and jason pride, director of investment also joining us. michael, would you agree with what you just heard from steve leastm leaseman. >> i think this is one steady step toward a rate hike.

i don't think it's quite a done deal. we have five weeks of data. and a lot can happen in five weeks. the fact that wages are still a little soft and the inflation outlook is a little concerning is probably the only thing left to be checked off if their view, but i think we've probably in line for a september rate hike. >> suggest not a rate hike until december is goldman. we'll have someone talking about that in a moment. whaus your take on the markets? >> i think we need to recognize that we're seeing something just a little bit over a 50% chance of a rate hike in september. this is nowhere near a done deal, and then secondarily, i think if i were setting in the committee member's seats, i'd be looking at this from a perspective of where is your greatest risk? inflation has yet to show up. wage growth is not there to the degree you normally see it at

this point. i would think maybe in their heads, even though the market is reflecting a greater than 50% chance, in their heads, the odds probably favor they wait until december or at least try to communicate a slow pace, already get ahead of the idea that once you do one rate hike, the market starts assuming the next and you are going to need to slow down that mentality so they put the right pace of rate hikes on the table at the onset. >> the problem is you're not a central banker and you're -- >> i completely agree. >> and your entire career credibility is not on the line that you failed to hike and then it's really too late to hike. you know? their back is against the wall. they have to come out so if the economy comes out, again they can cut rates. >> or they also have to do what perhaps is the opposite of what a lot of central bankers have done recently and hold your cards a little bit longer so you don't have the flip-flopping of

rate hike and cut three months later which we've seen a lot of central banks have to do because the economy is not strong enough to really handle a rapid pace assumption of rate hikes. >> i wonder, to jason's point, she has said the longer we wait, the steeper the climb will be. we got noise from the bang of england. do you think they're beginning to get the kind of cover they need to move in september if they wanted to? >> i think the bias right now in the committee, if earn able to sneak into discussions in the hall is probably leaning toward september as opposed to later. if you think about what the primary consideration of the fed has been, it's been the libor market in part because they want to see improvement and in part because it tells them something. as steve mentioned, they think about the likely outlook for inflation down the road. i think right now the fed is thinking september is more likely than not, it's not a done deal. i do think you could imagine scenarios in which they don't

hike. i think it's more likely they'll hike september and if the trend continues, december as well. >> this piece with information is interesting. it's a symptom of what's happening in the market. 12 out of 12 people believe there's a hike in settlement that steve liesman spoke to. you know you're not sure. it's 5050. question. what happens when the stock market guys like you who aren convinced of september move to a position where they realize it's about to happen? what will happen to this market? >> you know, i'm going to answer that question in a little bit different way. i think you have to be careful and they have to be careful about the possibility of hiking in september and somehow suddenly convincing the market that they're on a much faster paste pace than they want to be. i would argue the pace -- >> that's not -- >> i'm at a ballpark of once every other meeting.

>> forgive me for interrupting. we've run out of time and i want to ask you this question. if you guys in the stock market realize a hike is coming in september regardless of if it's due or not, what will it do to the markets? >> if it's perceived that there's one every market every other meeting. the stock market don't like that well. >> are we talking about a marginal pressure on the market or are we talking about a correction? >> well, i mean, at this point we're still talking 25% increments. i would say a marginal pressure. i wouldn't say a dramatic correction but i would argue that the stock market is not going to like that path of thought. >> thank you both. have a great weekend. the other big story today, last night's republican presidential debate. john howard is live on the

ground outside the debate site in cleveland. it's all about donald trump. i see he thinks he was treated unfairly. >> yes. he was complaining as soon as the debate was over that the moderators were unfair to him. i think they asked tough questions but i think they were fair questions. there was more than just donald trump in that debate. you had a mini drama there with some of the lower ranked candidates trying to go after each other as a means of breaking out. that happened when rand paul was pressing his case against nsa surveillance against the president and chris christie who just barely made it onto that stage has fallen quite far from when he was once a front runner. he used the moment to go after rand paul on security. >> that's a ridiculous answer. i want to collect more records from terrorists but less records

from other people. how are you supposed to know? >> i don't trust president obama with our record. you gave him a big hug and if you want to again, go right ahead. >> it's not clear that either of those gained too much from that debate. rand paul after went after donald trump. jeb bush was a little bit more nuanced about it. he didn't aggressively go after trump but he got a question when he was asked if he said some pretty nasty things about trump in private, he pushed back against that but acknowledged that there are some areas where he's been critical. >> it's true, but i have said that mr. trump's language is divisive. >> first of all, jeb, i am very happy that you denied that and i appreciate that very much. i mean, he's a true gentleman. he is. the one thing he did say, and i mean that. the one thing he said about that was my tone, and i also understand that. we don't have time for tone.

we have to go out and get the job done. >> reporter: and really, that's the core challenge that donald trump is putting before republicans. are they really going to take the position that they don't have time for tone nuance and policy positions and all the things that he's not offering them right now? so far he's been leading in the polls. we'll be watching over the next few weeks to see if this debate changes any of those impressions. >> thank you. thank you. >> early ratings suggested the highest rated partisan debate in the history of debates. we'll keep our eye on that. >> it was good television. it was. >> let's tall it around 485. it's billions. >> "the new york times" jim stuart will weigh in own "squawk on the street" comes right back.

today after fears of cord cutting joelgted the sector. joining us today, jim stewart. his column this week focuses on the struggling coal mine industry. we'll get to that in a minute but we want to talk media. people are asking how is it that this generational shift in viewing can be discovered in the

course of a couple days. >> well, of course it wasn't really. none of this is really new but what's new is it's starting to show up in some real numbers. you have the media companies ratcheting down their growth expectations. you see softness in the actual advertising. i think it's something that people have been afraid would happen, thought might happen, at least if you're investors in this company and now it looks like it is happening and all of a sudden, we'd better get out of here. i think it's a little bit overreaction. it's not going to happen overnight but the trends are not good. let's face it. the cable industry is a business built on selling people things they do not want. and ultimately, i think what we're seeing with the benefit of technology, consumers are finding a way to get and pay for what they want. you see netflix, amazon. youtube is up ending the tv market. there's a generation coming up that's not going to be force fed

channels they don't want and they're not going to watch it when they're told they have to. and that is scary. >> or just pay for it. >> i mean, i read about coal this week. it's facing what could be an extinction event. is cable facing an e tinxtincti there. we're not there yet but it's lurking in the back of minds. >> when you say cable, is it the distributors or those who provide the programming? >> i'm talking right now about the programmerings. they're all tied together. the cable companies themselves have had to start providing these so-called skinny bundles. they're just beginning that but that was a huge breakthrough. what could they do? people were going over the top with netflix. hbo, a lynch pin says we're going to go over the top. they're forced into it. once that starts happening, the whole model starts eroding. >> it is important to point out the cable companies, the most

profitable product is broad band. >> they will profit from that. i think they probably will be relatively realistic about this thing. that's why they're trying to cater to consumers. >> you're at "the new york times." you've been going through this entire question in a different way for a long time. and it's difficult. >> it is difficult. i mean, you get huge transitions like this in an industry and you get entrenched players that are clinging to old models. it's really hard to move these aircraft carriers. disney is a fascinating example. clearly espn is the biggest beneficiary of the bundle. everybody who doesn't watch espn is subsidizing the people who do. the people who watch espn and paying for it are getting a fabulous bargain. disney is doubling down on this strategy. they sued verizon over their skinny bundle program, and

they're smart people. you know they have done the numbers to see what would happen if we go over the top with espn. >> they came on and said we're not ready to turn that switch. there are still a lot of people. >> his words were we could do it today but it's not time. >> you know they've studied that and they've got the technology and would do it. they will make money. espn is a product that people want and love and are willing to pay for. they'll make money but will they make as much money? >> the question is will they make money in the future if they bid up the sporting rights. whether that business is still viable over the top, presumably not without the subsidy you're talking about. big money events they have their hands on. >> but there's a whole food chain of people who are going to have to adjust their expectations. if this model shifts, it's the players and the teams that have to adjust. that's going to go down.

there will be no equilibrium. it will be a painful process but it'll still be there. >> do you think the risk for these companies is in acting too late or too soon? >> it's calibrating a business. you don't want to cannibalize your own business but in technology, what you do is dig in and defend the existing model, then you will be extinguished. you will die. you have to get ahead of it and stay on top of it. hbo is a good example. you have to manage it. >> or perhaps in the interim somebody comes along and says this is how we're going to cut costs through the operation. you haven't had that yet. you just had espn identifying cut costs. presumably when you deal with it, your stock could rally. >> right. the minute they start selling the cost cutting, they're not

growing. they're doing this quietly because they don't want people to think we're slipping from double digits to single digits. wait until the negative numbers start showing up. they're highly valued. >> not the mention the profitability of their business. it will warrant a lower multiple. talking about a business that might be going away, coal. >> coal, i was stunned to look at this. i zeroed in on it because of recent bankruptcies. obama came out with the epa regulation. look at some of these stocks. pea body, i think it was 16 a year ago. arch was 33. pea body hit $0.93 this week. this industry is in a downward spiral. it's like fracking. the abundance of natural gas and new solar technologies are wiping this industry out. >> is the government piling on if their plans. do they need to do what they announced this week?

>> it was happening anyway. it's just pushing along. there's no question, first of all, clean coal was a myth. it's the worst pollutant we can burn. natural gas has half the carbon emissions. ironically, i think, is that it's the market that has done this. it's really not washington. it's not the activists. it's not the environmentalist marching around out there who were also against fracking which has been the savior here. it's the market, and the cheap natural gas. we're stampeding toward cleaner fuel because it's cheaper. >> market forces. jim, it's a good column. good to see you again. >> coming up on the program, egypt unveiling a brand new extension to the suez canal calling it their gift to the world. some worry it won't live up to

the hype. we'll be live in cairo after this break. you focus on making great burgers, or building the best houses in town. or becoming the next highly-unlikely dotcom superstar. and us, we'll be right there with you, helping with the questions you need answered to get your brand new business started. we're legalzoom and we've already partnered with over a million new business owners to do just that. check us out today to see how you can become one of them. legalzoom. legal help is here.

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a major expansion of the suez canal was opened in egypt this week. the project surrounded by big expectations. hadly gamble is live in cairo where it's currently 106 degrees fahrenheit. welcome to the show. >> reporter: thanks. essentially these people are calling it their gift to the world. 22 miles of canal at a whopping cost of $8.5 billion. basically they had to move about 200 pyramids of dirt to get this done. they've also spent big bucks on

promoting this new suez canal. you have the ability now to go both directions on this canal where before you had a lot of waiting time because you couldn't go both directions at the same time. a big change for the suez canal. they spent $30 million promoting the opening of this canal yesterday. we're talking about pomp and circumstance. we're talking about opera and people singing and military dress up in uniforms. a lot of pomp and circumstance surrounding this extremely exciting occasion for them. also some dignitaries, some absent, a major figure from the u.s. government as well. and are they going to get the kind of revenue they're hoping for? they're hoping to make $13.5 billion a year in a few years. that's doubling what they make now. it's an open ended question if they can achieve that goal. >> unbelievable story.

infrastructure, it has everything. thank you very much. in cairo. when we come back, an exclusive interview from january hatzius. we'll find out what the jobs number means for our economy. d . d . that's that new gear feeling. get this high performance laptop bundle for only $399. office depot officemax. gear up for school. gear up for great.

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here's your news update at this hour. new york democratic candidate,

charles schumer saying he opposes the nuclear deal with iran. he says it's a real risk that they're pursue the nefarious goals is to great. and kerri saying the proposed -- >> and a mine waste fill spewed about 1 million gallons of orange colored sludge into a colorado creek. the mine releasing the waste and officials say drinking water is not affected. north korea saying it's creating it own time zone to mark the 70th anniversary of freedom from japanese rule. it will move back the clocks to create their own time. that's your news update for that hour. back to you.

back to the news of the morning. the july employment report coming in line with expectations. we have the chief economist with goldman sachs. you got that number right this time. your reaction to the number? >> only a third of what's the fourth tier kind of stuff. there were a few things here and there but not worth spending a lot of time on. hours were a little stronger. average hourly earnings were a touch weaker and household employment was a little soft. these are very small deviations, and the trend seems to indicate that we get unemployment with a forehandl by the end of the year. do you agree? with a four handle in front of it. >> i don't think we'll be as low as that but eventually it will be below five. for me, that's 2016.

>> you are the interview of the day here because you'll demonstrate so many things you. you moved your call to say we'd only get a rate hike in december a couple of months ago. virtually everyone on, i think they probably think we'll get a rate rise in december. you're doubling down on that, the december call. >> we haven't made any changes in that call. it's based on our impression that when we look at where the center of the committee is, where the leadership is, that th their baseline has been a december hike as of the june meeting and some of the speeches in early july and we haven't really seen anything either in the data or in the communication that has changed that. so we haven't made any change because there's been, for us, no reason to change. i think the market's view is that a big e change has occurred in terms of the communication in last week's statement and in some of the speeches this week.

>> own what lockhart said? >> that's right. that's the market's view, but we would say it really depends on the leadership and we haven't seen that kind of thing. >> everybody made a big deal of some. some further improvement. you don't think this is that? >> it's hard to say. it might be, and it might be after the next employment report but i think one important thing to remember is that there are two criteria. it's not just one cry tier yo. the other is reasonable confide confidence on inflation. and if anything, the confidence on it getting back to 2% has diminished or not increased. in the statement last week they said they're closely monitoring the inflation situation. that's the kind of language that normally doesn't set you up for an imminent rate hike. >> does it matter if it's settlement or december if we get

25 basis points before the end of the year, we get it. >> i don't think it's a huge issue from the perspective of the longer term. i mean, especially if you could be sure that there would be a hike either in settlement or in december. it wouldn't make that much of a difference. now, as you go through the remainder of the year, though, if you don't get a hike in september, you probably can't be sure that it's december. so from a shortage of perspective, it will make a difference and you wouldn't want to overstate the importance of it. >> it does matter that you would fit in two rate hikes by the end of the year. that's the conversation. and if the majority of the market thinks they move in september but they delay, a, that's arguably a monetary loosening for some people. and secondly they could argue the fed is behind the curve. it also might make the hiking easier further down the line.

there are implications. >> there are some implications, as i said, i think there are some implications but i would also agree with david that it's not earth shattering. what is more important as the fed has said, repeatedly, is the overall path and the overall approach to monetary normalization, and so you do want to keep it in perspective, although those of us who care about each step along the way, of course, will spend a lot of time on it. that's quite normal, i think. >> goldman has been in the middle of this ongoing debate about productive and to what degree gdp is being accurately counted. can you explain it? >> one side of the argument is the productivity numbers have been bad so the trend is slowing sharply. our view is that the published numbers don't tell the entire story because gdp is becoming harder and harder to measure, and in particular, quality

adjusted prices in the tech sector are becoming harder and harder to measure. >> for example. >> for example software and internet access. you look at the price of internet access being recorded in the data and that's unchanged for the last ten year but an hour of internet access now is a very different product in our view from ten years ago. faster connection and a lot more to do with that one hour, but that's something that doesn't really show up in the data. >> so then the take away is in your view gdp is being undercounted in the end? >> yes. real gdp we think is being underaccounted. nom mall gdp we think is broadly right. the translation to real gdp we think is problem attic. >> dollar index seeing something they haven't seen since april. if we see another move up, does

that impact your forecasts? >> i think it's an important issue already. it's one argument for waiting a little longer. if you look at the dollar and the financial markets, they've already done the sort of things that you would normally expect on the back of a monetary tightening and that basically means there's less need to be hasty in delivering that monetary tightening. and if the dollar were to move further, that would strengthen that view. >> appreciate you joining us. >> when we come back, recode's kara swisher will join us live with her take on last night's debate and where she thinks some of the media stocks are headed from here. back in a moment. for an unsanctioned selfie. that's that new gear feeling. get this high performance laptop bundle for only $399. office depot officemax. gear up for school. gear up for great. go to ziprecruiter.com and post your job to over one hundred of the web's leading job boards

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it is jobs day here. let's kick into the santelli exchange and see the seasonality aspects of what we need to know. >> reporter: we have a big crowd gathered around because my guest today, fascinating man. professor, thank you for taking the time today on this unemployment friday. >> my pleasure. >> reporter: all right. we're going to start out with a little bit of a story. when i was a kid or maybe when you were a kid, we were play baseball in the schoolyard and pick teams and then there were people who weren't very good, it was always the talented ones that were picked first. when i hear the notion that one of the issues in front of the fed is that we're getting so close to full employment. i think of those days. the skill labor might be used

up. there's still a lot of people that are not picked. can you comment on that metaphor, sir? >> yes. it's a very good one. you're exactly right. the unemployment rate officially is about 5.3%. the unemployment rate on a large erer measured basis which is really a kind of a nonemployment rate which is what we should be talking act is over 10%. it remains over 10%, and beyond that, there is a reserve army of the nonemployed so that the american labor market is very much looser than that unemployment rate suggestions. >> i'm glad you brought up u six. i will acknowledge there has been improvement. i will contend that the government and fed and the centralbacks have come up with a six and a half and seven year cure for a flu. it's come down to the lowest level, but it is still over 10%.

switch gears. when we look at the numbers on headline nonfarm, when i used to be a trader you'd get 375, 210, 490, 230. where is the variance. these numbers are on a narrow range. any notion of why that is that you can share with our audience in. >> this particular report is a very, what should i say, even kind of report. it's not a good report. we lost about 1.1 million jobs last month. we have adjusted that by the seasonal adjustment to an increase of about 215,000. we know the seasonal adjustment figures are not good and, therefore, we probably created almost no jobs last month. the american economy is treading water. where the variance has gone, i'm not clear and we're all trying to figure that out but the economy is not in strong shape.

it's probably on the edge of a recession. it would be a very bad time to take policy measures intended to slow the economic recovery, and so that's where i think we are. >> reporter: professor, very enlightening and very interesting. thanks for taking the time. next time we're together, i would like to talk about all the gdp revisions. thanks again. now let's go back to the "squawk on the street" gang and see what their thoughts are on jobs number. >> in the meantime, cyber attacks are a multibillion dollar problem and the workers and workers who help firms defend themselves are in high demand. mary thompson joins us in virginia with more. >> reporter: good morning. a leader in security, semantics employees help companies around

the globe pild and maintain their defenses. they say their focus on security helps it to attract top talent. >> we've come to find that there is a work force gap. 300,000 jobs we fill will not be fulfilled based off the current work force availability. >> being a cyber specialist requires more than technical know how. an understanding of the industry and certifications that may take up to five years achieved all desired in a candidate, creating a challenge. while colleges are taking notice, semantic needs to do more. >> the good news is the universities are coming with us to help build that capability on campus. it's early stages. we're going to have to look at ways to build that capability and home grow it if you will, to bring it into the work force.

>> reporter: now, along with developing talent in india, here at home the company has partnered with a cyber career connection. it's training high school graduates and ged holders in the basics of cyber security. they take courses in things like ethical hacking and security plus. so far 31 graduates -- 31 people have graduated from the program. some are going onto get a higher degree and coming up on power lunch, we'll meet one of the graduates. he is a critical part of a pipeline of workers that they are trying to build. >> in more ways than one. up next on the program, from wall street to nfl agent to reality tv. the agent who remits sopresentsf the biggest names in football is part of tracking real life jerry

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from wall street banker to nfl sports agent, sonny shaw is the star of a new series on the esquire network, called "the agent" it follows nfl sports agents and their clients as they navigate what is a relatively

cutthroat world of professional football. sonny joins us now. more a documentary than a reality show, correct? >> yes, thanks for having me. >> the day in, day out of what it takes to be an agent, following you as you recruit and negotiate and sign. >> it's an inside look at what we do for our clients of the. not just about the contract negotiations, it's all about the other things as well. there's a wide range of services that we offer our clients and it covers all of those things. >> anything crazy that you have to end up doing for your clients, we'll be surprised to see? >> i think you'll be surprised, it's a good show. it's real life. and you know, i found myself doing all types of stuff for my players. from helping to negotiate, planning weddings and bachelor parties to sending gifts, to negotiating contracts. i mean you name it, we try to handle it for our players. >> i always wonder when you're dealing with people like this, obviously they are supposed to have college educations, although that comes into question sometimes, what's the

level of sophistication among some of your clients, when it comes to things like dealing with life, whether it's finances, finding a place to live or anything like that? >> it varies by client. i think you know. it depends on who you get in terms of you know, what how they were brought up. their back grounds and some of the guys -- they need a little bit more hand-holding than others. and so you know i pride myself on that, trying to be there every step of the way for my clients and trying to help them avoid bad decisions. >> what do you think of the tom brady scandal? what do people say? >> it's, i think i'm tired of hearing about it. i wish it was handled a little differently on both sides. i'm just hopeful that the nfl and the nfl p.a. can come to terms and hopefully get it out of the media. >> in many senses, i guess they didn't have a choice to suspend him, given what happened to the cell phone. >> yes, exactly. >> that was the suggestion from another agent that was on the show. >> i think a fine would have

been a better way to do this. but -- >> you were a banker originally. which do you like more, doing this or being a banker? >> i love my time on wall street i had a great experience at a numb of different banks. and those experiences have taught me to be a better agent. i love what i do. >> like what? >> the analytical nature of the job. being able to react quickly on your feet. being resourceful. and just working in a team atmosphere, all of those things i think helped make me a better agent. >> you worry long-term sports programming numbers may start coming down. i don't know if you saw ha happened with espn and the numbers start coming down in terms of what they're willing to pay for the contracts and you're negotiating at less leverage? >> maybe so, maybe so. >> not yet, though. >> not yet. not any time soon. >> if it's any consolation, if it comes to that, you won't be on your own. >> no, that's true. you and i will be out selling smoothies. >> good luck with the show, thank you. >> thanks for having me. >> let's send it over to jon

fortt and see what's on "squawk alley" in what are we, seven minutes' time. >> debate -- how did it play out in social media? we will take a look at that. also media stock stabilizing today after the big fall earlier in the week. viacom in particular, we'll look at what's next for them. finally jane wells talks to john mcafee about his latest brush with the law. all that and more coming up.

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from johannesburg, south africa where you're trading stocks there, itume? >> yes, i trade stocks. and securities. >> okay, so what was your guess? how close did you come? >> i was under, 215-k, nonforms payroll number that came out today. -- nonfarms. it's very interesting number in itself that it's one of the key economic indicators that we are all attuned to as traders, as a guidance to the timing of the fed rate hike. so given that it's been unwieldy, you had your trade numbers, and yesterday you had your drop numbers and all looking for at least one. and using that economic

indicators, and the consensus, was that it would be 215 to 222. and given that the jobless claims, i could sort of like predict in a way that would have marginal gains. and put it in a range. >> itume -- >> the economy would still in a little bit -- >> it's been, we have to dash because we've got another show starting now. it's been great to me you. itume kgongwame joining us from johannesburg. i think that's probably it, time for "squawk alley," over to you, carl. good morning, it is 11:00 a.m. at the quicken loans arena in cleveland, ohio, almost 11:00 a.m. on wall street and "squawk alley" is live. ♪ ♪

happy friday morning, welcome to "squawk alley," joining us, jon steinberg, ceo of the "daily mail" and kayla tausche is still out. jon fortt is here. the first republican debate, surprise surprise, donald trump front and center. >> this country right now owes $19 trillion, and they need somebody like me to straighten out that mess. >> you've called women you don't like fat