good morning. it is 8:00 a.m. at twitter headquarters in san francisco. 11:00 a.m. here on wall street. and "squawk alley" is live. ♪

welcome back to "squawk alley" for a monday. joining us john steinberg of "the daily mail" along with the ceo of indy go go. kayla is back from her long trip. welcome home. it's good to have you back. first a check on the markets. it's been a while but we have a 200-point rally on the dow. looking at broad strength all morning long. bob pisani on the floor looking at some of the big movers. >> reporter: it's been strong from the open. the s&p 500 4-1 advancing. it's not faltered at all throughout the morning. s&p 500 up about 1%, roughly 1.06%. you can see we're sitting at the highs for the day and sectors, i mentioned, a broad rally. you have financials, health

care, tech stocks. energy and industrials also are strong today. leadership in the industrials are caterpillar, for example, boeing and the precision cast parts deal helped some of the aerospace stocks up. even exxon is up today. that hasn't happened in a while. a nice, broad rally here. in terms of what's moving it, i think china up over the last session with the s&p -- excuse me, the china, shanghai and shenzhen composite up though the hang seng was down. this happened despite poor economic news, the ppi and the trade data was rather disappointing over there, but all this did was ignite more talk of stimulus. it's a simple story here, mainland china moving on perceptions of stimulus. hong kong, which is more internationally traded market moving on what was going on with the trade numbers and the disappointing ppi. i think china had a factor in today's rally in the u.s. carl, back to you. >> bob, we'll come back to you later on.

for our purposes here twitter is the lead story. turning around last week's losing streak. first interim ceo bought over 30,000 shares worth about $87 5,000. then twitter and the nfl announced a partnership with focus on video. rico adding to reports that their ceo will step down from the board as soon as the company picks a new ceo. the selection of a new ceo will likely take place by next month. let's handle the stock purchases first here, jon. jack tweeting out the filing, something you don't always see. >> it's nice but you take a look at the filings. he's sold ten times more than that in a period from early january to early february and prices between $35 and $45 a share. he should have been able to afford to buy more than that if he really wanted to make a statement considering how much

he sold. i don't know what he bought with it. i'm not sure what we should take this to mean given that he just sort of traded around that position. the nfl thing, it's interesting but more for the nfl, i think. this is going to be almost three times the content. very good for the nfl. i have seven video clips on the nfl home page right now if i go and look. i don't see what's unique if i'm an nfl fan i'm going to sign up for twitter or spend more time on it than i would have otherwise. >> that's tea leaf here. it's unlikely there's a takeout conversation that's live right now because if jack was buying stock while he knew they were in active talks, very tough to get away with. it's dated today, as far as the nfl thing, who cares? the ceo of the nfl picked up the phone, i want to do a deal, a cool deal, done it, done. >> it seems to be a one-two unof up 4%. still below $30 per share. slava, which of these headlines do you think moves the needle the most for a company that is currently in the middle of a ceo

search and even if the nfl deal was low-hanging fruit, it's still tapping into the biggest audience on television. >> i think twitter is trying to decide if they're a search company, a media company or commerce company. this is a step in the right direction as it relates to the nfl partnership. it worked for directv very well f. they can engage a whole new audience in terms of usage to get the fantasy football user to get that whole male demographic, to get the people who care about the engagement, that could be a big story. it's hard to make jack ceo when he keeps selling. he needs to turn that story around. >> and then chris says give -- >> he's a smart guy but i don't think sacca has proven yet he's in position to take this job.

when steve jobs came back to apple people were begging him to do it. i don't think jack is at that point yet. also jobs had already launched the imac and ibook. pixar put out "toy story 1" and "toy story 2" and "a bugs life." square is just going public. jack is on the board of disney at the same time. he has to make some choices. >> the momentum is gathering. the stock purchase which is a lobbying effort, a million bucks, not that much money. a note calling it the triumvirate. it seems like a fair amount of momentum and the stop off a very low number, a little bit of stability even if it's not what people want. >> when you see the tweet with the three people all from twitter again, when do you actually allow somebody from the outside to come in? how do you make that choice?

we've seen more of the same, so how do you make that choice? >> who has been your outside pick? >> eric schmidt. >> that's who i want but i don't think it will happen. >> we'll talk more about it, i'm sure, later on. alibaba investing $4.5 million for a nearly 20% stake in china electronics retailer sony. they say they will deliver goods in 24 hours. they report earnings on wednesday. kayla just back from china. give us a sense what their presence is like? >> everywhere. the consumer to consumer app is one of the most downloaded, most engaged apps in all of the chinese media ecosystem. its power is undeniable. more than its e-commerce power it's distribution power, logistics power. they distribute 70% of the packages in china. this is a step in that direction. they'll get 1,700 new retail

location that is will help its distribution in these tier three and four cities that are the smaller, more rural cities outside of the beijings and the shanghais. so this is certainly where alibaba is going, although, jon, it's just buying a stake in this company. you wonder if we're going to see more of this from alibaba. >> that's the part that has me skeptical. j.d., which is asset heavy, more than the amazon model, is down about 5% this morning partly on this news. these kind of half steps into logistics don't always work. it remind me of microsoft and barnes & noble teaming up. we'll have to see how this works. how much of attention do they get, one of the companies they have worn down as they have grown. i kind of want to see how much was behind this. >> the one-time growth from off line to online for chinese consumers going to outstrip the pressure that the economy is

under right now. the growth should be at 39%. it will be perceived the economy is hurting the move to online and it's going to be very detrimental. the stock could take a big hit. >> but the whole story is long-term growth, a burgeoning middle class. slava, whether you're in china or here in the u.s., it's all about that last mile, making sure you get the package in the consumer's hands. this does seem to be an investment in the near term for longer growth. >> more of an acquisition to buy more growth. they should be focusing more on mobile. the pc is around 3% but the mobile only around 1.5%. they need to pick up in the

mobile area to continue to grow the next five years. >> some names starting to recover, disney, time warner, comcast. most of them are higher. the transformation hitting the media industry is not just about cord cutting. jul julia boorstin is live. >> reporter: the shift to skinny paid tv bundles with fewer channels, lower subscription revenue for the media giants with channel that is are second and third tier and it means lower ad revenue. perhaps most importantly since fewer people are watching. it was consumers opting for smaller bundles which don't include espn rather than ditching paid tv altogether that prompted the negative comments from disney ceo iger on the earnings call last week. on fox's earnings call james murdoch saying there's rebundling going on. he says fox is well positioned in that marketplace and cbs rebounded last week in large part thanks to ceo les moonves

comments that kicked off the earnings call saying cbs will be included no matter the size of the bundle. amy young warning about the risk to stars, discovery and say that go with channels like great american country and diy network scripps is most susceptible to digital threats. the potential is why morgan stanley says content could be a safe haven dish announcing low cost skinny bundle hit 169,000 subscribers by the end of the second quarter helping compensate for traditional subscriber losses. now comcast last month announced it will offer a dozen channels for just $15 a month to xfinity customers and charter ceo tom rutledge says just last week that he's working on a new video product with fewer channels at a lower price. paid tv bundles, optimism about

netflix is rising. shares hitting an all-time high last week. guys, back over to you. >> and it was up earlier again today, actually just slightly in the red right now. julia, a fascinating chat. as for netflix, there's a note out today looking at 80 million subs is the number. by 2024, these are the forecasts, jon, you get when you have momentum like this. >> you do and on the content side it's interesting. what julia was saying lines up with our conversation last week. if you're first tier in some ways this makes you content all the more valuable, also distribution is valuable because you can talk about it. as you're shaving the cord, you have to have that broad band cord and you need it all the more as you try to get all your content over that internet connection. there are certain players able to provide that who will probably do okay. >> i mean, i think you're seeing the consumer really speaking up here. according to nielsen last year the average cable customer spent

$24 on cable. they're paying for all that excess. they've got used to using dvr. pulling from youtube. used to using online for netflix. i think you'll see more margin pressure and competition in the area. >> i was going to ask about margins. you have the consumer that's potentially cheering but the companies that are going to see their margins going only in one direction. >> i think of it as a dispersion of revenue. people will keep getting revenue. star wars will be a massive hit. there will be a lot more of the stuff. last week they were still fighting for the bundle. now we've taken the step back. now everybody is lobbying for skinny bundles and shaving. an or thecal put up. a year ago paid tv sector was down. this year shrinking at a rate of 7%. this is going to happen so fast now. these guys protested and protested saying it wasn't going to happen.

payments are going to be easy. content will remain okay. people will get their money but no bundle stuff. >> even that transition is going to be sloppy. espn/verizon exhibit "a." >> netflix already has its valuation. who else is going to make out like a bandit in this environment? >> i'll stick with what i said. the people who make the programming, the disneys, the time warners, cnn, they will continue to he can tract money for selling the content and advertising against it. there will be a whole new crop of digital native entrants. that's what we saw happen in newspapers. newspapers have all the revenue, all the classifieds, and it burst out and dispersed. that's what will happen as well. >> there is death by 1,000 cuts. this appears to be more of a moment us change we've seen in recent quarters. >> we learned from the newspaper industry. the wild card is twitter. they move to be a media company and they're trying to get more into video. every single one of those twitter folks are becoming a channel.

now all of a sudden you have an unbupd ld channel by channel. which channel do i want to watch? the nfl has a channel for each of their teams. >> today michael wolf talks about-face book and google being beholden to ads, which we all know are softening over time, but then he says what if they got into streaming as a business down the road? >> the way you look at it, the facebook, linkedin, they become the comcast. they become the provider and the assembler of the different comments and payments are becoming easier to do on an ala car carte basis. ads will take up the slack. >> no one mentioned youtube growing really swell as well. >> set to outpace viacom and time warner by 2017 in terms of u.s. ad revenue. that's morgan stanley. that's unbelievable. good stuff, guys. good to see you. jon, slava, thanks so much.

when we come back shares of apple down about 10%. reported earnings a couple weeks ago. one analyst says you should be bullish about growth, the iphone. he'll try to make his case. get ready for massive growth in mobile. that sector could hit $815 billion. who stands to win and lose going forward? and we still have our eye on the markets with the dow close to session highs up 220 now. "squawk alley" back in a minute.

apple's newest iphone ad showing off the camera's capabilities and this ad, of course, comes right ahead of what we expect will be an iphone launch in early september. the big event on september 9 is when we expect to get it. the number one apple analyst on the street toni sacconaghi joins us. we were talking about this last week and it seems to me signs point to a strong iphone cycle. relative weakness in samsung, the news from apple on cnbc last week that the average app store spend in china is actually going up in the month of july and august which suggests that chinese apple customers still spending early upgrade plans now in place. 70% of the iphone base hasn't upgraded yet. >> the iphone is doing very, very well right now.

the question is, is it a victim of its own success? last year apple sold nearly 75 million iphones. it was tremendous growth. the new large screen phones resonated with customers. and so i think investors are worried about can apple sustain that level of growth? can they continue to grow year over year versus a tough comparison? and that's why the stock has been weak because the market has been fearful that over the past year apple effectively pulled in users and that's why it's gained so much here. and that's what the market has been worried about. as you said, we think there's lots of opportunities for apple to continue to gain share. we believe that the install base of high-end samsung phones, galaxy s and galaxy note phones, is almost 300 million units. and so there's still ample opportunity for apple to continue to gain share going forward. >> so what is the case given apple's customers loyalty tend to be stronger than android

overall and they have been gaining shares. they have room without continuing to steal share, to still. what is the database case they might sell fewer iphones than a year ago? >> i think it would be as follows. that apple had a really great phone that consumers were waiting on, the larger screen. they had never had that before their competitors had. and so as soon as that came out you had a groundswell of people come and buy the phone, people who would have bought it this year but would have bought it next year. so effectively apple pulled forward demand and that's why you had the massive acceleration in growth, the iphone grew 12% in fiscal '14, growing close to 30% this year. so you effectively pull forward demand. it sets up an extremely difficult compare, and then, secondly, that leaves less people to buy the phone next

year. that's the worry and it's difficult to know that phenomena did not happen for certain. >> tony, obviously one big fear is over time things continue to go wrong in china. they have to drop prices which is not a very apple thing to do. your take is incomes actually rise to meet the product? >> yes. we've done some analysis on income growth in china. and basically what we found if you look, we took a seven-year period from 2012 to 2019 and what we found basically is that the iphone if it kept its current price would be affordable to twice as many people in china in 2019 as it would be in 2012. and we've heard ceo tim cook at apple speak repeatedly about the phenomenal income growth in china which, you know, is not surprising given up you have a country now not growing as fast,

gdp is growing about 7% a year. you have a really large growing middle class. and so we think that's an underpinning and china is a brand conscious country. the iphone has really resonated there. and apple has only 12% market share and about 18% in the rest of the world and so we think there's still opportunity there. >> you talked about the poll effect. i'm curious about that. is there any evidence if this was a pulling in and not just the impact of a popular phone that stole share? you put that up against the fact that 70% of the install base hasn't upgraded and i don't understand the case. >> right. well, i think 70% of the iphone install base has not upgraded to the 6 and 6s. there is a percentage that may have upgraded to the 5s or the

5c still available. that number is optcally probably not as low as it appears. but i think the worry ultimately is that you -- that replacement cycle is taking a longer time and so if you had roughly a third of the people upgrade this year perhaps a little more if you include the fact that some have upgraded to lower models, and the upgrade cycle is maybe three years now globally it's less in the u.s. than if they've upgraded a third or more this year to possible that they pull forward and, again, the numbers aren't perfect that apple provides us with. and so i don't think we can say with certainty that, you know, the momentum will continue nor do i think the bears can say with certainty that there's been a big pull forward and that's the essence of the debate right

now. >> indeed. and we'll get a big indicator when we see that first weekend of sales probably some time laettner september. toni sacconaghi from bernstein joining us. >> the dow up 219 points. turns romantic, why pause to take a pill? and why stop what you're doing to find a bathroom? cialis for daily use, is the only daily tablet approved to treat erectile dysfunction so you can be ready anytime the moment is right. plus cialis treats the frustrating urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, get medical help right away

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welcome back to "squawk alley." the dow trading up 213 points. industrials are helping lead the way there. boeing, caterpillar up as is apple. at one point all 30 dow components in the red this morning. s&p up by 1%. nasdaq up by nearly 1% as well. spot gold at session highs and some moves in oil on the back of headlines out of greece and stimulus in china. berkshire hathaway plans to buy precision castparts in an all cash deal worth about $37 billion.

down by three-quarters of a percent. buffett is paying a pretty penny and a rich multiple for that company. warren buffett did join squawk box talking about what this deal means for his company going forward. in terms of a deal of similar size what we will probably do on this one is we'll probably borrow about $10 billion and use about $23 billion of our cash on that order. we'll be left with over $40 billion probably of cash when we get all through. >> wide-ranging interview on "squawk." good to listen to. almost everybody in europe's green as we are a few points from being positive for august on the s&p.

simon is here to wrap up the day. simon? >> it's a broad based rally that has extended its gains. it's quite difficult. we had a bit of a disappointment on eurozone sentiment but we've driven through that as you can see. it's quite difficult to work out sectors that are moving. certainly oil and gas was lower at the beginning of the session that we cut some of the losses because oil has rebounded. you saw some of the global minors on the weekend. the banks are down. greece makes gains. this is a micro cap in many senses. if you look at the greek banks compared to everybody else. we will probably get some big news during the course of the week on greece. at 3:30 this morning they negotiated with the rest of the eurozone and everyone else. there you see the talks resuming. this is for the big bayingoilou.

they're suggesting that they have almost completed now line by line agreement on this 27-page memorandum of understanding and they could have that together by tomorrow ready for the greek parliament on thursday, two specific measures and eurozone finance ministers then to okay the big third greek bailout with presumably a promise on restructuring the debt further down the line as well. that would -- and the race is on basically next thursday to release enough cash and send it through parliaments to release that cash to pay the ecb. you have a fast track from the greeks. the fly in the ointment, if you like, is what germany and the rest will do. angela merkel has come back from vacation, a three-week vacation, and her spokesman said thoroughness before speed. germany has isolated as the "financial times" in dragging

feet or if there's problems around the european union, the eurozone passing through parliaments on the size of the initial sum of money they could get which is $20 billion euros and, secondly, whether they cemented in enough quid pro quo from the rest of the greeks as the money begins to flow. we'll foiind that out during th course of the week. >> simon hobbs, when we come back, more on the rally we're witnessing midday on a monday. the averages seeing nice gains. more than 1%. opinions. there's no shortage in this world. who do you trust? whose analysis is accurate? how do you make sense of it all? a simple, unbiased stock score consolidated from the opinions of independent analysts... is that too much to ask? nope. equity summary score, powered by starmine, will help you

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i'm courtney reagan and here is your cnbc news update. afghanistan's president is calling on pakistan to crack down on the taliban insurgents following today's suicide car bombing right outside kabul's international airport. at least five people were killed and 16 others were injured. this is the latest in a series of bombings in the city over the past several days. japan returning to nuclear energy, the first reactor is scheduled to restart tomorrow under new safety requirements implemented in the wake of the 2011 fukushima meltdown triggered by the earthquake and tsunami. student debt is on hillary clinton's agenda. she is planning to unveil a $350 billion plan aim at making college more affordable.

the announcement is set to come at a town hall meeting in new hampshire. the state with the highest average student debt. and the u.s. postal service, which has been losing billions of dollars a year, narrowing its loss in the latest quarter. double digit package growth and cost cutting helps the bottom line. postal service reported a net loss of $586 million. it had a nearly $2 billion loss in the same period last year. that's a little better. that's your cnbc news update this hour. let's get back to "squawk alley." thank you, courtney. stocks are in full rally mode. the dow up 220 after seven days down. joining us on the phone, wells capital management chief investment strategist joins us. jim, good morning to you. >> good morning, carl. >> i'm looking at a note you wrote on july 28. you said our best guess is the markets are in the late stages of a selling in commodities and commodity related securities.

>> i don't know if this is the bottom for sure. i guess that's based on a couple things. the biggest thing has the dollar peaked out? most think the dollar will go higher. if it does, the commodity prices will keep going lower. i believe the dollar has been in peaking mode here since march. i find it very interesting, for example, despite the fact of the probability on the fed tightening up september has gone up to 60%. you have the dollar weaker today than it was prior to the payroll report last friday and commodities are rallying on that news. i think with the dollar weakness and with not only the united states growth but also just globally from all the policy stimulus we've been enacting if there's a bounce commodity price has a chance of rising over the

next year. >> jim, is september the inevitable for the rate hike at this point? we saw 215,000 jobs added in the most recent month and everyone is saying it's september or bust. what changed? >> i don't think it's inevitable. i mean, there's just no way. the fed has been willing to wait as long as it has. we've been growing 2% year on year the last 18 months. the unemployment has dropped 1% a year. there's nothing for sure but i think we're getting close to whether they have to do it in september or october. i don't think it's that big of a deal. what i do think is going to be the pace they'll have to do that. inflation expectations and tips which are up today. the dollar goes down rather than up. that will put more pressure on the fed to move quicker.

what bond yields do and whether they move ahead or not, whether commodity prices actually go up and bounce and then what wages do. that's a mixed bag as well right now. i think what's really going to be important for the stock market is the speed of fed tightening. >> so, jim, you mentioned commodities a couple of times. you have a related call that we talked about. caterpillar is the dow component that's up the most today, more than 3% probably on hopes that commodities might be rebounding. is it too soon given that it's down 20% or what are your thoughts? >> i think it's a little too soon. i'm not totally convinced we're at the lows. i've been moving investment in that direction. you don't have to buy commodities. you can buy commodity like stocks in industrials, materials and energy, canadian stock market are all potential plays on that.

i think caterpillar and the industrials are up in part today because of the industrial buyout by berkshire hathaway and also just sort of a bounce off the 200-day moving average on friday. if you look today, the sector suffering the worst leading the market higher. materials are the leadership today and i think that might have more to do with technical bouncing than it does with any big fundamental change. >> if you had to write a takeaway for earnings season, jim, we have almost everybody in in terms of the s&pers. i love this statistic down year over year 98.4%. health care up 14. what do we take away this quarter? >> you have to be impressed with the earnings resolve at least in the s&p 500. now what i note, though, overall

profits have been flat for three years running. i think they generally move closer to the s&p for profits and the difference to me comes back to buybacks and in no small way. it's slowed down quite a bit. with profit margins already close to post war highs, there is no way we'll grow earnings as fast from here to the end of this recovery that we already have and i think we have a weaker earnings trend in place already. a difficult position for the stock market if we speed up, sales do better. margins contract. if we stay weak, margins are already maximized. i think the earnings story is tough from here but in the second quarter they did pretty well. >> your cautious stance has played out. >> somewhat. >> jim paulsen joining us from

wells capital. thanks so much. up next, soon getting that next galaxy note from verizon could be more expensive. details in a moment. plus, post cards from china. kayla is back from her trip to the far east. insights on companies like uber, apple and disney overseas when we come right back. ♪ i built my business with passion. but i keep it growing by making every dollar count. that's why i have the spark cash card from capital one. i earn unlimited 2% cash back on

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there really any staying power? defending apple, the analyst that says sell-off is unjustified is with us live. warren buffett still sticking with that name. what do you do, though, with ibm? we'll discuss in about 15. all right, sounds good, scott. verizon customers soon could be getting that iphone or that galaxy phone could be a lot more expensive. the company says it's going to offer new data plans that end subsidized smartphone prices but come without that two-year contract. for comparison in the olden days with verizon subsidizing up front. subscribers pay that $650 that the phone costs over time like a loan or they can bring their own phones into the deal. shares of verizon in the green so far this morning. probably because they're not going to have to take that hit.

>> is this capitulation? >> you're actually leasing that smartphone under these plans. you turn in your old phone in order to get the new phone. people don't think that much value in an old phone. you're paying month to month. they have this asset. >> some good news out of china. the shanghai composite posting its biggest one-day gain in about a month. up nearly 5%. this comes after weak economic data lifted expectations the chinese government boosts spending to pop up the struggling markets. you came back from a long trip to china. it's one thing to talk about this from post 9. you were on the ground seeing how people are living maybe hearing in how these market gyrations given that not everybody is in the market.

what did you see? >> i see a big cross section of people, jon, from executives to consumers on the ground to people who are running their own businesses there talking about the gyrations in the market and how they are affecting the underpinings of confidence. i talked to someone who talked about a cash advance against a credit card to invest in the stock market. i talked to an uber driver i had investing in the stock market. i talked to executives. and pretty much everybody said that they view 3,500 as the floor in the market. that is the level that they believe government support would not let it go beyond but, then again, there are people who came into the rally late who have lost money. that is affecting confidence but, also, there's this sense more generally that there's not a lot of consumer confidence, not a ton of spending and that a lot of the growth coming into the chinese economy is still coming largely from infrastructure spending and construction spending on behalf of the government. i did have a chance to visit the

shanghai stock exchange on friday. another day when it was up. that's me with the gong. it was a fairly quiet day. it is summer vacation there. also because the people ringing the bells are opening shares of trading for their own ipos which, as we know, that activity has pretty much ground to a halt because of the moratorium but there is a pretty large foothold of u.s. brands on the ground there. i'm not sure if you can seep the apple store in the middle left of this picture but you can probably make out mickey's ears on the right. that is the new shanghai disney retail store. 54,000 square feet. disney's biggest store and they're marking the roof of that as seen from the top of the shanghai pearl tower and if you can't see the apple store you'll note that it bears a certain resemblance to a store on 5th avenue with the glass cube.

that is a glass cylinder and so certainly they are building at a very clear presence. this is what they call a tuqtuq, i believe, and this is uber's competition in china. i took those to a fair amount of places that i was going on the ground in china. i also took uber, and uber is really prevalent there, guys. they are competing on price, operating close to cost, and they're pretty much getting you to pay nothing for a ride to get you into the system just for comparison in one of those tuqtuqs i paid the equivalent of $5 for about a 15-20 minute taxi ride. in the uber, a red car that shows up on your map, i paid $1. >> it puts their expense sheet into some perspective. you were with a bunch of other journalists and one of them did a column for "the washington post" arguing that the feeling

there is still that they're being held down as a country by the man. did you get that sense? >> there is a sense of that. especially when you talk to people who are involved in the social media space. social media with chinese characteristics is something that gets mentioned a lot. we talked about whether facebook, whether twitter would ever be able to operate in those countries. the general sense is not in the next ten years. don't even think about it because the government likes to be able to logon, take posts down or ask people to take posts down if they do not agree with them. certainly there's a sense that someone like a netflix could operate there in a very limited capacity, someone like a facebook could not. >> they feel like we're holding them down, not the government, but us. >> the jury is still out on that. there is a monopoly on information certainly that people are trying to get a better handle on that. >> great stuff. great to have you back. that's the most important thing. >> it's very good to be back. i appreciate the comforts of home more than ever.

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valuations on the rise for the sector adding $44 billion in the second quarter. our next guest is forecasting revenues will hit $850 billion by 2018. could we possibly be moving toward a unicorn bubble.

it's great to have you. is this a mobile unicorn bubble? coming into the market and going out of the market so if you think about the factors, in the last quarter exits mobile dropped below investments for the first time since 2013. if you look at investments what we've seen is up to 2013. on the exit side the ipo market for mobile dried up middle of last year and mna dropped in the last quarter so they're running about half of what they were running at peak in 2014. the question is not so much about bubble and valuation, it's about timing. >> you also have, tim, a lot of companies for facebook, alibaba,

twitter that are such strong operators in the mobile space. how many of the smaller companies you see being enabled by those larger companies. >> it's important but you have to look at the smaller companies to get the full picture. around a quarter of the companies cover 80% of the value but a very large group where some of which you've heard and some of which you haven't. if you are within mobile report 27 individual sectors. around three times money invested in the last five years. around 20 sectors we're seeing less than three times for an lp, pension fund. there are around 20 sectors where actually you look at, say,

commerce or travel and transport each of those has seen about $20 billion of investment. in the low levels to really under what's going on. >> we'll have to have you back soon. >> stocks in a stubborn rally here up 220 or so, some of the individual winners when we come back.

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the dow is up 214. things working have not worked all year long. you look at the top gainers on the s&p, almost all of them have market cap losses for the year in the 50% range, the globals, the freeports, the diamond offshore, whether it's short covering or nibbling, this has not happened very often. >> as tom pretty says, even the losers get lucky. pandora up more than 3% and twitter. >> i had to check my eyes for a second when i saw utility were one of the only sectors in the red today given what we've seen throughout the year and the interest rate complex is not common that we've seen that in the red.

and kraft heinz, buffett on this morning saying that he doesn't see them making a big deal throwing cold water on the food consolidation story. >> he has stuff on his political for now. >> he does. let's get to wapner and "the half." welcome to "the halftime show." joe terranova is with us. our game plan looks like this. defending apple. the analyst who says the recent sell-off is unjustified is with us live as the stock looks to bounce back. buffett's best. why the oracle of omaha continues to back big blue and whether you should, too.