tv Fast Money CNBC August 17, 2015 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT
5:00 pm
30 this year. brit, thank you so much for joining us. it's great to hear what you're up to. and congratulations on all that. >> thank you. >> brit & co. the september issue of "elle" does hit newsstands tomorrow. i'm blushing heavily. thank you for being here. mike santoli, kate kelly, thank you for being here. that does it for us. "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq marketsite overlooking new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. this is "fast money." our traders on the decemberric tim seymour, steve grasso, dan nathan and guy adami. tonight on "fast" the apple rumor mill is heath up from self-driving cars to sprint's new iphone forever plan. what is real? what is fake? we're separating fact from fiction on all things apple. plus mickey and darth vader coming into town. a special report on disney's big plans roll out "star wars" theme parks in the near future and what it could mean for one of the most widely held stocks in the nation. the dow staging a 200-point reversal from the low. the s&p bouncing off a key level for the fifth day in a row and closing higher.
5:01 pm
this all coming on weak oil and bad economic news. is this the start of a summer melt-up? sure felt like that, tim. >> i'll tell you what. the pain trade is higher in the third quarter and especially because there's a lot of cash on the sidelines. there's every reason offer the last few weeks, whether it was the fed, greece, china, to be cautious, frankly. i think a lot of people came out of the second quarter earnings saying there's not a lot there. when you look around the world there are certainly reasons to be bearish. i have said i think china is a total overreaction from last week. i think the impact on the consumer for the u.s., multinational, has been overrated and in fact there's only a few companies in the s&p. probably about 15 of them that actually have more than 10% of their revenues covering from china directly. again, does this make sense? i think it makes total sense based upon where we've come out of and a bit of a relief and fear of a lot of guys being caught short of something that's going higher. >> you look at the headline nuns in terms of the major averages, it looks like almost nothing happened but a lot happened. if you take a look at some of the individual stock movers. we had a bit higher for bonds, also apple higher, netflix higher, ivb the biotech sharply higher. sort of an interesting mix of
5:02 pm
things that traded up today. >> tim named a couple of things. you had the fed, you had greece, you had china. there was nothing worse on those three fronts that would create the market to sell off any more than it did. still a little bit rangebound. still negative on the overall market. yields coming in. push you into that inverted yield curve with a povlt an inverted yield curve when the fed eventually decides to raise rates. that's negative for the overall market, period. >> dan? >> listen, the range these guys are talking about we've been in. we could talk it to death. 2050 on the down side on the s&p and 2140. and i suspect that the path of least resistance is no longer to the up side. i think we will probably get to 2130, 2135 and i don't think we're going to break out. i don't think there's a lot of leadership. you just mentioned yields. i know guy's been all over this thing for months and months now. i just don't think the ten-year yield at 2.18% is a positive thing for the u.s. stock market anymore, especially when you consider the fact that commodity tisz, industrial commodities continue to act horrendously and oil in particular feels like it's going to crash. >> oil's been trading great for
5:03 pm
the last few days. >> really? it feels like it's holding on for dear life. and when i see a stock like chevron down 2% on a day when you talk about massive reversal in the dow it is a dow component, it's one of the largest contributors to s&p earnings too acts like that. >> but inji shares have been trading very well with oil going sideways -- >> oil's been down 10% month to date against the backdrop 69 energy names. >> i just think the sentiment you just expressed, everybody knows that. and i think that's in the price. >> i thought the critical day last tuesday when the s&p traded down to 2052. but today you have a real opportunity to knock the market lower today and it didn't do it again. it once again rejects the lows. even if you aren't a bear and don't believe -- and i don't believe, you have to respect the price action. it's been pretty tremendous at least in the s&p. i don't want to get crazy yet. give me a couple days of that. that's a critical level. the bond market is still heading higher meaning yields lower and the energy space refiners still work. both valero and tesoro both up
5:04 pm
2 1/2% today. >> is it harder to shoot against this market? >> i don't think so. i think guy just mentioned the russell. let's talk about biotech, the xbi. these are in very, very sharp down strends right now. and i think you can still short rallies until proven otherwise. and i think looking at the s&p in that tight range is going to actually take your eye off the fries late bit. >> the s&p, the 200-day moving average, you talk about it a lot. october last year we wound up breaking through the first time in about two years. we've hit or broken it four times now since last october when we weren't able to do it for two years prior to that. that tells you something. i think it's weakening it, not strengthening it. >> let's talk housing. home builder sentiment hitting its highest level, nearly ten years. one top technician says now is a time to buy housing. carter orth at cornerstone macro is breaking it down at the smartboard. what are you looking at? >> this is a very good area of the market and we have a great setup in the sense that you have huge outperformance in 2012, underperformance in '13 i've 14 and this early stage outperformance in '15. and in principle it should be
5:05 pm
the beginning of the next up leg. here's a comparative chart. two big etfs, xhb and ytb. one of course is a market cap wave the itb versus equal weight xhb. either way what we know is good performance all year long and we have a market that's up 2%. these rupp 12 each. despite what rates do they continue to act well. you can draw the lines any way you want. here's how i would draw them. we're just now breaking out above these tops is that have been in effect for the better part of five, six months. you can call it an ascending wedge. but the principle is higher -- we like this. relative strength matters. it was acting well during the dodgy period the last two weeks and it's making new highs today. >> how correlated, carter, are the itb and the xhb? because we make a big deal about the differences in the components with the xhb exposed to things like mattress makers and home depot. >> that's right p the itb is much -- sort of pure if you will
5:06 pm
and really tied to home builders but the relationship is 95%. so even though xhb does have things like whirlpool and matchmakers and certain household retailers and things, home depot, the relationship is near perfect. >> carter, i know you've been somewhat negative on the broader market. are they mutually exclusive? can you be negative in the s&p and positive on housing? >> sometimes the market and housing is correlated and sometimes not. for instance, in the tops of the last two bull markets the market in '98 to 2000 continued another 30%. and home builders were plunging. it happened again the other way? 2011. the market was unchanged for the year and home builders were up about 40%. sometimes there is a relationship. sometimes there isn't. we think you can be here on an absolute basis and a relative basis compared to the s&p. >> carter, good to see you. carter worth, cornerstone. >> it's interesting because depending on you who talk to
5:07 pm
you're going to get a ditch view on the consumer. the other point on housing markets is structurally you've had prices rise so much that a lot of stuff is unaffordable. you listen to the builders they're having a lot of time catching up to in terms of supply. some of the best housing analysts on the street, you're starting to see operational leverage in these guys. you're starting to see the volume is going to pick up. the question is does the consumer have atability and the pricing power to own these stocks in a lot of these stocks look kind of interesting and they look interesting because the last round of earnings, the margins are going higher, they're starting to see some visibility in the pipeline, five, six months out that gives you an ability to make a call on the stock. i think they can continue to go higher. i think railand, pulte, and dr holt are your -- it's not a value trap but it looks good. >> kb holmes and pulte. they're more exposed to the first-time home buyer. toll brothers that's not exposed to that, more sophisticated buyers already up 19% year to date. i think you get your most leverage, most beta oust pulte and kb. >> i know carter holds heavy sway with you, guy.
5:08 pm
but do you believe that you can be lukewarm on the narkts markets but bullish on housing? >> b.k.'s been that way. he was very positive on housing and somewhat negative on the broader market. the broader market's going nowhere. some of these housing stocks have been on fire. the answer is yes. what carter says goes with me. home depot tomorrow before the bell. great balance sheet. the housing market seems to play to home depot's strengths. we've said that for a while. if it's weak tomorrow post earnings i think you buy it but i don't think you're going to get that weakness. >> this is the itb probably one of the most beautiful breakouts you'll see in the market right now that doesn't have a whole heck of a lot of leadership. it's been trying to break out. if you want to buy this breakout use a tight $28 stop to the down side. coming up next "the new york times" versus amazon. we've got the behind-the-scenes footage on what it's really like to be an amazon corporate meeting and it's not pretty. plus, "star wars" fans now have something else to look forward to. "star wars" themed lands inside their theme parks. julia boorstin's got a special
5:09 pm
report on what it could mean for disney's stock. and later dennis gartman's warning to the oil market. he says a crude bear market is not over yet. he'll tell us what he's looking for. much more "fast" right after this. at ally bank no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like mute buttons equal danger. ...that sound good? not being on this phone call sounds good. it's not muted. was that you jason? it was geoffrey! it was jason. it could've been brenda. attention investors! vectorvest mobile is here and it's free! make faster, smarter, better trading decisions with vectorvest mobile. the most powerful app or managing your portfolio from the palm of your hand. only vectorvest mobile analyzes, ranks and graphs... ...over 16,000 stocks worldwide, everyday,... ...and gives you clear buy, sell, hold recommendations... ...on every stock; anytime, anywhere. vectorvest mobile comes free with your vectorvest trial. get it now! visit vectorvest.com/mobile to get started
5:10 pm
5:11 pm
and that's where pg&e's online business energy checkup tool can really help. you can use it to track your actual energy use. find rebates that make equipment upgrades more affordable. even develop a customized energy plan for your company. think of it as a way to take more control over your operating costs. and yet another energy saving opportunity from pg&e. find new ways to save energy and money with pg&e's business energy check-up.
5:12 pm
urban outfitters popping on earnings. dom chu's got the details at headquarters. hey, dom. >> all right. so what we have right now, urban outfitters, second quarter profit was a beat helped by strong demand for its free people brand. sales did fall short of estimates because of higher marketing and technology expenses, discounts and sales promotions also took a toll on margins. sanlstore sales increased by about 4%. that was slightly below analysts' expectations. it also included a 4% increase in its namesake urban outfitters brand and 2% gains at its anthropologie unit. it was really led by the free people brand. those comparable store sales up by 14%. if you take a look at what's happening so far for the shares they are down about 8% year to date and about 11% over the last 12 months. so the setup was favorable going into this and melissa, let's not also forget that the conference call is going on right now. so we'll have any kind of details when that comes along, guys. back over to you. >> all right. thank you, dom chu.
5:13 pm
who has a trade on this? this one is a riddle to me in terms of what they missed on and how the stock is trading. >> i think they're running into this issues smt core brands. the anthropologie sbrand a bright spot. the margin growth is something that at least has been giving people some more room in the stock. i think the short base and people betting against this company are in the price. and i think it's a case where you don't need to buy it tomorrow but 31, 32 showed the stock can hold that level and i think that's where you trade off of. >> 7% shares of outstanding according to thomson are held short on this one. >> i think tim's spot on. traded end of 2014. this stock went from 47 down to 30 in 2 1/2 weeks. even a 50% correction gets back to 38 or so. i think you can still tone it, it bounced further from here. >> amazon kicking off the top trades. the company's corporate culture is the focus of a "new york times" story alleging a cutthroat environment. the article called amazon wrestling with big why's and a bruising work force. claims amazon has cruel working conditions based on several
5:14 pm
interviews with employees. jeff bezos is fighting back at those claims saying he would resign if working at the e xhert giant was awful as the article would suggest. our staff did some digging around and they found some video of a mid-level executive meeting that illustrates the bruising culture talked about in the article. fair warning, this is pretty intense footage. >> ow. ♪ >> you've got to go easy on that guy. >> well, it sounds like it was a big of a hatchet job and i think the fact the stock didn't really -- you know, as far as trading the stock here, some of these guys on the december vik been far wetter than i have. you've had three consecutive gaps after earnings this year in january and april and then again last month. and in each instance it's kind of given some of that back. it's filled in the gap and then it's gone sideways until the next earnings report. and i suspect you probably have some pretty similar action into the next report in october. and so if they continue to do
5:15 pm
what they do and show their ability to kind of be profitable or a little more so than people think, you probably have a new high coming up in october. >> that was a scene from "goodfellas," by the way. >> which is one of the great ones. but to me an aggressive environment, if you're a shareholder in this company, isn't that kind of what you want to hear you? want a company where certainly there's a bit of a ruthless we've got to succeed at all costs. and i think for amazon people have been concerned that they've been a little all over the place. anything at this time with the stock starting to make a move, show there's margin accretion, i think this is not bad news for them at all. >> and we did some more research, in all seriousness, and here are the top four publicly listed companies to work for as rated by their employees according to the glass store.com. number 1 google, number 2 fs networks, number 3 chevron, number 4 procter & 2k3w578ball. teak a look at the ten-year returns for these same companies. google up a whopping 376%. 620%. chevron up 33%. procter & gamble up 41%. does this matter even around the edges, grasso? >> no.
5:16 pm
because amazon crushed those on its ten-year returns. it's all speculation. you don't know what's really going on inside those walls. people have a bigger plroblem with amazon. it's profitability. they've shown they can become profitable if they want to turn that switch on or off and worry about investment in the company going forward. it's amazon web services. that's the reason why you buy this. growth all over the place there. i've been bullish for a number of years but at this point maybe you do take a little bit off the table and maybe you just look for a little bit of a pullback that dan was speaking of. >> next up here a big day for tesla gaining after a bold call from morgan stanley the first raising its price target to $465 from 280, a new street high saying the increase reflects tessa's potential to lead revolution in shared mobility. we went through the note. it was pretty far out. the note envisions a future in which 100% of their revenue shift from the sale of human driven/individually own cars to robot-driven/shared cars. analyst adam jonas says these are early days but tesla may be best positioned to advance the
5:17 pm
state of the art in shared autonomy. guy? >> did they play that music? >> kind of creepy, actually. a little bit weird. >> odyssey kind of of music. >> freaking me out. >> space-age music. because this is a call predicated on a business that does not exist yet. >> as most of them are with tesla. >> oh. >> an imaginary business which is going to raise the price by that much. >> okay. are you done? because you have it all -- >> it's puzzling to me. >> mel's got a view. >> clearly the note helped today. but i think more than the note i think the stock would have been up as much as it was today but it would have been higher today given how well it traded off the secondary they priced last week. we talked about it. they price td at 242, traded really well, it was critical thaelon musk bought shares. he did. so yes, this note came at the perfect time in terms of how the stock is trading. i thought it would get down to 225. i think it got down to 236. now i will say this. against 242 that secondary price you probably own the stock once again. and let me add one more thing. >> go ahead. >> because i do like -- you know
5:18 pm
i think the world of you. but it's somewhat disingenuous for to you throw out "goodfellas" as if you have seen it as many times as i have, which is borderline three dozen. >> i did not throw it out. >> you have seen the movie? >> i have. >> you actually signed off on changing some of the names. >> funny how? like a clown? like i amuse you? >> back to tesla. back to tesla. his bull case scenario, $611. within that $611 40% would be this new business that doesn't exist yet, mobility. and 48% would actually be tesla motors. it's interesting to think that event projections in the most bullish scenario, this imaginary business which he says will be announced soon, it will be announced soon, is almost going to be as big as their core business. >> well, nobody gets more of a free pass than tesla in terms of stuff they might do in the future. that obviously is in terms of production first and foremost which is something i think is still out in the open. the stationary storage -- i've said this before. that was what got me a little more excited about the stock.
5:19 pm
it was something that added 25% on to the eps for a lost analysts by 2020. i think that's in the price. i think the stock after it gets this momentum out of the way is heading back to 220. >> i would just adheres a company that's got a $33 billion market cap and i think a lot of that is based on what they will do in the way off future. so to me if you have a very long-term time horizon i think you can envision a stock that's two times of what it is right now. no doubt about it. but your point is being a bit skeptical of the stock rallying today on the promise of that, up 4 1/2%. it seems a bit goofy to me, but here's a company that is clearly innovating and they have a vision for the way out future. it's trading at six times expected sales this year. there's a lot of tech companies that trade at ridiculous valuations. so if you can take a long-term time horizon, close your eyes -- >> this is a tech company. what is it? this is the problem. >> it's a guy who's likely to change the world in the next couple decades. >> it's a google competitor, it's a solar company. it's a car company. >> whatever you want it to be clearly. >> oil's collapse claiming another victim in sampson resource today. we've got to look at whether there's more bankruptcies to come in the energy space ahead.
5:20 pm
you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. in the meantime here's what else is coming up on "fast." >> may the force be with you. >> announcer: and the force is disney. despite espn concerns, we've got a special report on disney's new "star wars" park. and what it could mean for shareholders. plus the commodities king is back. this time he says the oil beal market is not over yet. find out how he's playing the latest crude moves. all that and more ahead on "fast."
5:23 pm
♪ welcome back to "fast money." forget about espn because the force is with disney and the new plans for its theme parks. julia boorstin's got all the details. julia. >> melissa, disney ceo bob iger announcing two 14-acre "star wars" lands to an audience of thousands of disney fans. he got a standing ovation. take a listen. >> we're creating a jaw-dropping new world that represents our largest single themed land expansion ever. [ cheers and applause ] >> disney's iger did not announce an opening date for the new "star wars" lands at the
5:24 pm
parks but said they'd both feature rides based on "the force awakens" and a flight in the millennium falcon. plus cantinas as he builds these lands in orlando and anaheim. fbr analyst barton crockett saying disney's $4 billion acquisition of lucas film has been absolutely transformative for the company. >> we think it's going to drive growth and attend ons. we think it's going to give them room to drive up pricing on their tickets. we think it's going to be very helpful for earnings for disney. >> disney's also working to cash in on its marvel acquisition as it ups its superhero presence in the parks. it's working on an iron man ride which is going to launch at hong kong disney. lights also trying to feature more marvel characters at its u.s. parks. now, these big brands are all part of disney's strategy to stay ahead of the universal theme parks. universal's been pouring billions of dollars into its new parks which w. new rides such as the "harry potter" attraction. of course universal is owned by
5:25 pm
cnbc's parent company nbc universal. melissa? >> julia, do analysts think this is enough to offset what we've seen in espn? that was the main concern off the earnings release. >> that's exactly what barton crockett said. he said this sort of spaekds to the fact that disney is truly a diversified company and it has this big presence in the parks. it also has consumer products. and these are different ways to sort of offset any concerns that there might be about the tv business really changing. >> julia, thank you. julia boorstin in l.a. is this enough to offset? >> i think that's 9 perfect question. we talked about it last week. 50% of their revenues is still cable, and if espn's a huge's pouring of that and if there's concern that you're going to the a la carte model mr. iger spoke about it. he was as cautious as we've ever heard him. does it offset it? no. what's interesting is over a two-day period after they reported earnings the stock trade about 120 million shares, which is almost unprecedented in the name, traded down to about
5:26 pm
104 1/2, 105. if nothing else it gives you something to shoot against on the long side. now if tim is right if the market is heading higher if that's the path of least resistance you'll start to see analysts who have been behind the curve on disney start to play catch-up. >> 20% premium on a forward basis to the s&p. does it deserve it? yeah, it does. this company is so far ahead of everybody else as we've learned in their space. parks are growing on margins. the consumer products are growing with everything we're hearing from "star wars" and otherwise. the studio continues to grow. it's a very diversified model within the studio. there's four or five brands that continue to grow. i think there's a total overreaction on the skinny bundle. what did we learn that day? yes, you're right. bob iger was much more aushs than we've hear him. but this is nothing different than the entire industry has been pacing for a long time. >> stuck between its 100-day and 200-day moving average. guy told you the level to watch out for, 104. they've owned content, the movie theatrics the box office. that allows them to translate as you've seen with the superheroes, with "star wars." and i think this becomes a destination for a lot of different people.
5:27 pm
is it smoke and mirrors? no. this this is a stock that's performed year to date up 15%. >> another one bites the dust. yet another oil and gas play falling victim to the collapse in oil. a look at whether there are more bankruptcies to come after samson's filing. plus from self-driving cars to a so-called iphone forever, the lowdown on what's real and what's fake in the world of apple. more "fast money" still ahead. take advantage of our summer offers. get this low mileage lease on select ats models, in stock the longest, for around 269 per month. i found her wandering miles from home. when the phone rang at 5am, i knew it was about mom.
5:28 pm
i see how hard it's been on her at work and i want to help. for the 5 million americans living with alzheimer's, and millions more who feel its effects. let's walk together to make an even bigger impact and end alzheimer's for good. find your walk near you at alz.org/walk. everyone loves the picture i posted of you. at&t reminds you it can wait.
5:30 pm
welcome back to "fast money." the volatility continued on the street today. the dow dropping triple digits before rebounding and ending the day higher. the s&p is 1.5% away from its all-time high. consumer discretionary and health care are the best-performing sectors in today's session. here's what's coming up in the second half of "fast money." is it fact or fiction? the apple edition. rumors flying about the tech giant but our own josh lipton separates the truth from fantasy in a special report later this hour. plus walmart earnings on deck. we reveal the top three things the street is watching so you can get the earnings edge before they report tomorrow. but first, falling oil and gas prices claim its biggest corporate victim yet. kkr samson resources announcing plans to file for bankruptcy protection by mid-september. chilling news for a sector already expecting a wave of restructurings next year. sams samson's bankruptcy just the tip of the iceberg. indicate kelly with more on
5:31 pm
this. >> thanks so much, melissa. yes, many in the sector do see the planned bankruptcy of samson which may not occur until mid september as a sign of negative things to come. that said, the samson situation was pretty well telegraphed either by reporting on the creditor conversations that happened all summer but also by the price of natural gas, which as you know has really been in a slump in recent years, almost since the deal that kkr undertook in 2011 to do the leveraged buyout was inked. so it was not a surprise overall. i talked to traders out there. they said the leverage in the private equity world on the energy side is really enough to give you pause. it's about triple according to one person what it is in the public sector. that's definitely going to be a slice of the market to watch. however, in the public sector and especially as we get into this fall where banks are going to be talking with companies about the degree to which they can borrow cash and that may be much lower given the price of both crude and natural gas there are some public stocks we may want to keep an eye on too where we're seeing pain both on the equity side and the bond side.
5:32 pm
a few examples, sandridge, swift energy and energy 21. there are many more but those are just a few that people are talking about. finally if you look at the crude futures chart it doesn't go back above the $60 mark until 2019, melissa. a number of worrisome signs out there. of course there is a bull case as well that thinks that the oversupply issues are exaggerated and that demand is growing stronger. there may be some truth to that but right now the market is very skittish. >> kate, thank you. kate kelly from the nyse. tim, i'm just wondering, hedge funds probably own this paper. there are probably going to be ripple effects later on. >> i tell you what, what's happening in the distressed area, this is obviously more than distressed and this samsung deal was lifted off the shelf. people are buying it blindly. and there's a lot of exposure across the big hedge fund space. i know guys that bought this deal, that deal in this space and it's interesting because liquidity is changing. i wouldn't say this is payne time. i'd say this is a deal that people have been following and it was a very big deal so a lot of people are exposed. look at the hyg, it frads
5:33 pm
poorly. we're trading at the lows. to say we're in a full-scale credit blowup, absolutely not. but again, liquidity is there today and it's gone tomorrow. that's usually how it works. >> for more on how much pain would be coming for oil let's bring in dennis gartman the editor and publisherer of the gartman letter. dennis, great to have you with us. you think we're in a bear market for oil. how far along in this bear market are we? >> we're probably 90% in distance along the way. but as in all markets, whether it's a bull market or a bear market, the last 10% of the time frame can often be 25% or 30% of the price movement. the problem that the crude oil market faces is you just had a picture of the term structure of the wti crude out and past 19 you had $60 crude oil. that's an expensive price for crude oil. and with that term structure as contangoed as it is producers can still borrow money if there is any money to be borrowed down in south texas and there's going to be many, many more
5:34 pm
bankruptcies. but with the term structure positively sloped drillers can still drill, they can sell the deferred futures, crude oil is bidding to go into storage-k and as long as the contango continues and especially if the contango that's spread between the front months and the back months continues to widen that's illustrative of a continued bear market. where can crude go? it's going to get a three handle before it's done. and you may be surprised how wide the term structure may get. it would not shock me in the course of the next year or two that we had $20 between the spot rate and two years forward. that will continue to allow drilling as long as people hedge. those who don't hedge, they're doomed to destruction. >> dennis, what's interesting is in the early days of the wti downturn we were talking about the high yield market and how this could have an impact on high yield because oil and gas were huge issuers during the boom times and then that talk sort of went away and people were like oh, i think the sector will be okay. and here we have this news of this proposed bankruptcy filing from samson. do you think that there will in
5:35 pm
fact be the ripple effects, that we have not seen quite yet because of this prolonged downturn and this sort of flat curve for oil? >> if there's one thing i've learned, mel, in the course of being 35 or 40 years in the business, it's that in every industry such as this, whether it's the cotton business, whether it's the grain business, whether it's the oil business, once you get into bear markets it takes a long time for the bankers who have funded it during the heyday to finally admit they had made terrible mistakes. there are going to be a lot of admitted terrible mistakes, and the ripple mistakes are going to be long and i think really quite ill over the course of the next six months to a year. i think the samson bankruptcy announcement is just the first of many and there will be others behind it and there will be others outside of the oil industry, outside of the drillers there will be pipe manufacturers, there will be rig manufacturers, there will be banks who are going to find themselves in difficult circumstances. this is good for the consumer.
5:36 pm
it's a wonderful thing to see crude oil prices at these levels and lower. and in the long run it's going to be great for the consumer. but i'm sorry it is going to be terribly detrimental to the producing areas of the country. as long as the term structure remains in contango, you have to remain bearish and you have to think ill is happening, not good. >> all right. dennis, great to see you. thank you. dennis gartman of "the gartman letter." grasso, you're pointing out the oil equities were doing pretty well relative to the price of oil. can you have these bankruptcies increase in number and also be still positive on the energy equities? >> i think to a certain extent. you can't have oil ultimately just collapse from this point. but the fact you that see an eog or a pxd month to date up 6% or thereabouts with wti down 10% month to date i think is extremely bullish for the underlying. we know the bullish scenario for the refiners but i think now it's time to maybe pick away at your premium names in the enp space. >> actually, it's not as great for the consumers as you would
5:37 pm
think. if you're in the midwest, in chicago, gasoline prices have gun gone up about 50 cents in a week and a half for other reasons, not necessarily demand reasons. there are some refiners that are offline. with that said i don't think it's the panacea for consumers. and i still think in the environment, we're in the only way you want to play this for the short term. trade is to remain long in the refiners. >> when you hear dennis say ill of that many times. this thing is about to make -- crude, that is-s about to make new lows and it really feels like you're going to see it down 10% someday. very, very soon. you're going to get a test how those equities act. if you think some of the big integrateds have overshot already, a chevron, that sort of thing, get ready to buy them because there could be some sort of v reversal where the commodity gets way, way oversold and then people, that's the kind of moment that people step in to buy some of the big stocks. >> but again, and this is where we were earlier in the show, he think a lot of that sentiment is so out there and i think the break even continues to get lower, it's getting to a place where it's pushing prices down but we're starting to see a bottom here.
5:38 pm
i would be very surpriseed if we're down another 20%. very surprised. i think we hit our lows in brent which was 46 in january. >> still ahead, apple rumors hitting a fever pitch over the weekend but we nail down the headlines that really matter for the stock. plus, yelp facing its own set of rumors as takeover chatter bubbles up once again. is it too late to get in? the details up next. much more "fast money" straight ahead.
5:40 pm
5:41 pm
cyber attack today. i've got the company that is keeping the hackers at bay. "mad money" is next! got a news alert on sunedison. dom chu's got the details. >> shares are up about 4% in the after-hours trading about 2 million shares of sunedison have traded. this becomes the company along with an investment fund run by goldman sachs's infrastructure group has announced a new $1 billion construction and asset facility. basically, what this is is a fund that sun edison and goldman sachs have kind of put together here to invest in and develop solar properties. this all in the effort to hand these properties or sell them to the yield co., terraform power that was spun off from sunedison last year. i'm stalking to the experts on it, guys, but in essence what is going to happen is this is going to let sunedison and this infrastructure group at goldman sachs develop these solar facilities to then sell them to the yield company terraform
5:42 pm
power so they can have shows assets and generate proceeds to spin off to their shareholders. sun edison shares up but should point out for context year to date these shares have r. down about 31% over the last 12 months. >> thank you, dom. down about 60% from the stock's high on july 20th which is when they announced the vivant deal. this leefts one of the biggest concerns that has surfaced recently and that is capital, to drop down to the yield co.s. >> they're building a structure that allows them to hold and drot down these assets into terraform. and the fact you've got a billion-dollar investment at a time when everyone was questioning this model and they'd ton get funding this is good news for the shares. >> but in terms of the context of the price action, this is a drop we have probably not seen that quite a period of time. >> more than cut in half in a couple weeks. but this is the life preserver that they probably need. and if you're short the stock now you have to reevaluate at least in the short term so you can probably get a couple more bucks to the up side. sun power, we talked to time warner last week, against 24
5:43 pm
bucks we mentioned that was effectively the low in january. trade down there again. is it a better trade to own sun power here against 24 than sunedison? i would say yes. >> really? >> well, you're going see a bounce in sunedison. given the things we said. but i think the bounce is going to be short-lived. i still think they have some issues in terms of their businesses. put it out there. >> moving on, will they or won't they make a car? that is the latest rumor to surround shares of apple. josh lipton is break down fact from fiction on all things apple. so let's start off with the car, josh. what do you know? >> well, melissa, the rumors really picked up because of this "guardian" article suggesting that apple is in conversations to use a facility nearby to test self-driving cars. now, apple declined comment on that story. but there are reasons it could be interested in building a car, right? it's got the money to do it. some 200 billion in cash. it's never shied away from entering established markets. and the car industry represents a $1 trillion opportunity.
5:44 pm
on the other hand there would be real regulatory hurdles to scale. even if an apple car is come it could be seven years away according to bernstein's tony sakanagi. finally, apple might want to control the user experience in that car. that doesn't mean you have to build a car to do so. but for the investors looking to play that self-driving car trend there's obviously google is hard at work on that moonshot. melissa. >> and let's talk fact now, josh. sprint and apple. we saw a huge move in sprint stock today on the back of this iphone forever plan. >> right. melissa, you want to be part of that iphone forever revolution. sprint is certainly hoping so. that's the name of this new plan. it launched today. here's what you get with that plan. 60 bucks for unlimited data. until december 31st customers pay $15 per month to trade in a smartphone for a new 16-gigabyte iphone 6 or the 6s if it launches before the end of the year as expected. total monthly charge, 75 bucks.
5:45 pm
that doesn't include taxes or surcharges. there's also remember a $36 activation fee. now, ahead of that expected 6s launch in september the major carriers are rolling out new plans. fbr's dan ives, he's an apple bull, says this battle among the carriers is a good thing for apple because he says it pulls forward demand for customers stuck in plans that otherwise they might not have upgraded. right now less than 30% of apple customers have upgraded to that 6, 6 plus. ives says that will be 70% by the end of next year. melissa, back to you. >> josh lipton, thanks so much. interesting because pat crest had a note out today saying comparisons are going to be tough but that's okay because they're going to be tough because they sold a lot of phones last year as opposed to losing market share at this point. >> and also sprint, let's face, it these guys are losing the wireless wars. it's kind of a desperate call here. i don't know that necessarily because sprint is doing this everyone has to follow through and be as aggressive. the fact it's pulling sales forward. i think you've gotten to a place
5:46 pm
where you're positioning for a holiday season in the apple -- apple. i'm talking like brian kelly now. this is where the stock's trading. down side, 108 to 110 is probably where you trade from. >> and it can show you further down cycle. i think the upgrade cycle's going to be a long one. i don't think you're going to be really that surprised when you think about this is a more complicated phone they're going to have force touch in the thing. some results in october about how many they sold. i think it's steady as she goes. i think the bigger news today and very importantly is what's next. you know, tv is not there unless we're going to have a new tv in a couple years, who cares, the little box here. if they can really do something that's truly innovative in the car space, in the connected car space, that is the next thing that takes them to a $300 billion revenue company. >> we were talking earlier about adam jonas's call on an imaginary business. isn't this almost the same thing? beer talking about apple and an imaginary business because they have not talked about plans to build a car -- >> i don't think they want to -- >> here we are talking about the possibility of them building a car that could be out in seven
5:47 pm
years. it's the same -- >> no. it's a technology thing. i think they want to own the dashboard. and you've said that before. i've heard you say it on this program. >> but that doesn't mean they have to build a car -- >> why is it a trillion-dollar snarkt owning the dashboard ace lot different than owning -- >> but you want to be in driverless cars then you go with mobile. i owned it, sold it way too early. >> new high today. >> i think you use that against a $60 stop if you want to be safe there. now you go back to sprint. cover a lot of ground here. t-mobile up 55% guinness sprint up 10% year to date. t-mobile and sprint taking market share from telefon and verizon. but i still think you stay with t-mobile. >> let's take a yelp. this is one we've been following since san francisco. the stock is up more than 8% in the last two days. remember we talked to gil simon the fund manager over at apex capital. this is his position that he took on starting in the first quarter. very bullish with this stock saying essentially it could be four times what it was on thursday in terms of market cap. i don't know, guy, if you're a
5:48 pm
buyer of this. the notion that it could be an acquisition target for instance. >> his best case scenario he was talking about it being a 5 $50, $60 stock. even half of what he says gets it to 35. this stock round tripd all the way back down to the 2012 lows in a pretty magnificent fashion over the last couple of weeks. again, if you just take half of the positive stuff that he talked about on thursday, it gets to you 35. i think you can get there. >> i think it's a case where this is a company that people are trying to understand how commoditized the space is. i think the very oversold sentiment, a lot of short interest out there, whether this has a lot lot of legs and what would you pay for in if you're one of the guys who has this data himself. i don't think as much as he does. >> walmart out with earnings tomorrow before the bell. the stock is down more than 16% this year. will the report jumpstart the shares if we've got the details next. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide.
5:50 pm
in fact, the number of mris has increased by ten percent a year. and a radiologist might view a thousand images to find one tiny abnormality in shape, contrast or movement. because it's so challenging, a research project is teaching ibm watson to see. in the future, it could help clinicians spot key patterns quickly and precisely. ibm watson is working to make healthcare smarter every day.
5:51 pm
wonderful, crazy mornings. we figure you probably don't have time to wait on hold. that's why at xfinity we're hard at work, building new apps like this one that lets you choose a time for us to call you. so instead of waiting on hold, we'll call you when things are just as wonderful... [phone rings] but a little less crazy. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. for more information on sunedison let's get to dom chu with the details. dom. >> melissa, if you're wondering why some of those shares may be losing some steam in the after-hours session, it's because of this particular issue about the company says it's
5:52 pm
going to offer about $500 million worth of convertible preferred stocks. it's going to try to raise capital in this environment as well. this coming out in the last ten or 15 minutes here. they're going raise more money by issuing convertible preferred stock. it's going to use the proceeds for general corporate purposes including funding working capital and growth initiatives. so again, we told you earlier about this whole arrangement with an infrastructure group at goldman sachs to raise money but now they're also raising money by selling convertible stock, convertible preferred stock that can be changed to common stock. just an interesting development. and our thanks to all the viewers on twitter who brought it to our attention. >> you're an owner. how do you feel? >> noim not an eastern. >> oh, you're out. >> i'm out np but this is classic convertible. you sell on the underlying, buy on the bond. that's the price action you get here. but i still think it's an affirmation of the strategy if you're seeing this kind of investment made in the underlying structure. big tech names may be out of the way but earnings season is far from over. walmart kicks off a busy week of
5:53 pm
earnings tomorrow which also includes lowe's, home depot, and foot locker. we found out the three biggest things chris hovers will be watching for. >> this is chris hovers from jpmorgan with an earnings preview on home depot for "fast money's" earnings edge. into the print we're focused on three key metrics. first, the comps. the street is estimating 4% comp for the quarter. we think the company needs to do at least a 4 to keep investors happy given the run on the stock into the print. second is the cadence of the quarter. scott mioka grow and sherwin williams spoke to weakness in june given the very wet weather. if the company can speak to a 6% com np july when they give the monthly cadence on the call we think that will keep investors happy and willing to endorse the stock into the back happen against more difficult comparisons. the third thing is the outlook on housing. home depot is a very well-owned
5:54 pm
stock globally given the u.s. housing recovery. so the texture of demand is very important. services growth. pro growth. big ticket growth. traded by the consumer. those are all boxes we want to check on the print to keep that view on the investor long side. we're overweight home depot. we think it's a fantastic company and has a great long-term high tens plus earnings algorithm. however, given high expectations in the print, we would set up more neutrally for the near-term investor focus. chris hovers, jpmorgan, "fast money's" earnings edge. >> how do you trade this out of earnings? >> home depot classic outperformer up 14% year to date but it's registering as overblown on rsi. last time it had to work off this rsi overblown status it dropped 10%. if you see it pop out of the gates i think you could sell that and i would not be a buyer nm you see it down 6% to 8% i would start to nibble that. >> dan, where do options traders see the stock going? >> it's interesting.
5:55 pm
there was a lot of talk about expectations and they're very high. and when the stock went out today, reports before the opening, the implied move was about 3%, either direction. and that's actually less than the four quarter average has been about 233.3%. volume three times that of puts. one time the stock was 120.40. where traders sold 4,000 of the august 120 calls to close and rolled that premium up out to september and bought 4,000 of the september 125 calls to open. so they're rolling that bullish view up and out. it was obviously kind of profitable. when you look at the chart here. this is this long consolidation and this recent breakout. this is pretty good stuff here. if you get those 4% comp and the stock can continue to grow i think you can probably use 120 as a level to hold on to the stock from but here's the point, and this was what grasso's kind of talking about here. it's actually really pulled away from that trend line that's been in place for the last four
5:56 pm
years. it's consolidating up here. any disappointment you're going to have this stock probably 115. it seems like a very similar setup to disney at least from a sentiment standpoint. options were really cheap heading into this. this tells me that investors were very complacent. >> for more ppgs pmgs check out the full show 5:30 p.m. eastern time on fridays. well, the traders tell us what they're watching tomorrow. we've got much more "fast money" straight ahead. here at td ameritrade, they work hard. wow, that was random. random? no it's all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this.
5:57 pm
it's more than a nit's reliable uptime. and multi-layered security. it's how you stay connected to each other and to your customers. with centurylink you get advanced technology solutions, including an industry leading broadband network, and cloud and hosting services - all with dedicated, responsive support. with centurylink as your trusted technology partner, you're free to focus on growing your business. centurylink. your link to what's next.
5:58 pm
5:59 pm
big swing on wall street today. i'll tell you about the key theme that powered it higher. then more bad news from the irs cyber attack today. i've got the company that is keeping the hackers at bay. "mad money" is next! time for the final trade. what are you guys looking for tomorrow? tim. >> u.s. retail. discretionary. we talked at the top of the show how the markets feel better. a lot of this as china is better. a lot of these retailers from the 34id kind of june highs of the chinese stock market as it sold off. and then the deval. getting priced down because people worry about the chinese consumers. mace yis all looking better. >> 386. >> spoken about already i'm going to w567 home depot out of the gates to see how it trades because it's going to give me an indication on how to trade lowe's the following day. >> dan. >> i think tim is too complacent about some of this stuff in commodities and china. when you see oil breaks 40 i
6:00 pm
think all that stuff he feels good about are going to be kind of nasty. i don't think you want to do that right now. >> tim mentioned top of the show ibb topped out 400 in mid july. traded down to 360 and held. textbook 10% correction. >> i'm melissa lee. thanks see you tomorrow for fast. "mad money" starts now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now! hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to help you make money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate, teach and coach. call me 800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. i always enjoy a market that makes sense. it lets you be creative and make judgments tha
128 Views
IN COLLECTIONS
CNBC Television Archive Television Archive News Search ServiceUploaded by TV Archive on