scrambling to get out. >> let's look at the guys in the control room if we could. we've been making a big deal about the fact that wti had gone below 41 a barrel for the first time since march of 2009 of the oil majors and so many other things selling off as a result of that chart which i know my friends at power are going to talk about right now. >> we certainly are, scott. thank you very much. tyler mathisen here. we're about one hour away from those fed minutes that scott and the gang were just talking about. they could provide a pretty good him at whether we'll see a rate hike at the next meeting. that next meeting set for september 17th about one month from now. the fed, however, taking a back seat today for the big selloff. sara eisen is covering it with bob pisani. >> investors are waiting for the

release of the federal reserve minutes. the dow is on track for its lowest close. let's get more on the trading action. bob is here on the floor as always. ne energy stock s dragging us down >> we were weak right at the outset. you see around 10:30 we just dropped. that's when the inventories came out. barrels, import surge. that's very bearish for prices. the bottom line is right. exxon and chevron weighing on it. you have a lot of countries worried. you can buy russian as well. we saw dow stocks moving down but there was some collateral damage here. i pointed out the sxe which is

the semiconductor sales in china. there's collateral damage here. look at the declines. yes, you see walmart down. i put it in there because that's a 52-week low. finally i just want to note talk about a tough day for a new oil etf. there's a new one that came out. it's a basket of all the new refining oil stocks. that just came out. that's a basket of refiners like marathon and valero and we'll update that in the next few days as we get more details on it. but a tough day to start. >> yeah. absolutely. the apple is down as well. let's go over to the nasdaq. bertha coombs is there. hi, bertha. >> we look at an etf scorecard. they're led south. the russell 2000 by a lot of

small caps. chips have also turned weaker. they were moderately positive earlier. a substantial beat there. an upgrade at suntrust. adi benefiting from have its chips in apple watches. we have a number of new lows. micr micron, kla 10. no huge news. evercore, isi, google, guys, on its tenth anniversary, back to you. >> bertha, thanks very much. let's bring in steve liesman who's doing what else, looking at fed minutes in less than an hour. >> less than.

we have dweueled dead heads mak comments. >> ooh. >> it's said the u.s. inflation outlook provides no justification for policy tightening. the fomc should ease, not tighten, monetary policy. part of what's going on is the debate. do you watch the jobs and growth numbers that have been doing well? folks, this is core numbers. food and energy, it's pretty consistent. the bottom line here, green, that's commodity prices and the middle one is the actual core, cpi. unchanged. what do you watch for? first of all, how much minutes

is there in china and whether inflation divides the committee. >> thank you, steve, very much. target, we're watching target today as many of you are. shares up about 4% earlier on the back of a very strong earnings beat in a tough retail environmental. the retail jiernlt also raising its outlook for the year, has the company turned the corner. courtney reagan joins the chief financial officer. take it away. >> thank you very muff. i'm joined by john mulligan, chief financial officer, however, incoming chief operating officer. i guess the first question is does your shift make you heir apparent? you were interim ceo for a while. >> i think, courtney, the first order of business is what i've gotten in front of me.

we're excited about bringing the stores together, property team, supply chain and celebrating an operational improvement. cutting boundaries across those so we can deliver on demand shopping for our guest. i'm not wired about brian leaving any time soon. he's doing a great job. we're glad he's here. >> you're working without a chief merchant right now. so what's the status of target's search for that position? >> you know, we've undertaken an external and internal search. there's a lot of interest for the jobs, sourcing them soon. in the interim the merchandising team along with brian are continuing to do a great job of delivering great products, graduate value. we'll see it again in the third quarter and programs like plaid.

we continue to move forward and look forward to the next quarter. >> e-commerce growing at 30% which sounds good. your goal for the year is 40%. what's the plan to make up the different to get you to that goal? >> yeah, we were really pleased with the growth. it's a little bit more than double. particularly in electronics online, we were using that to bring the guests back to the stores. we've cycled past that. we'll continue to grow that business. we have conversion, things that will help conversion like we call it available to promise where we'll commit to a guest that if you order by a certain time we'll get it to you in two or three days so they know for sure you're going to get that product. they commit to the worst side that. will be a big one of conversion. we'll continue to integrate our online business with the stores

and all of that will continue to de-reich robust growth for our channel. >> i wanted to ask you about the pharmacy business and what you're doing there and how those changes are going to play into your broader strategy and make money for you. >> yeah. that's a great question. you know, we obviously announced earlier this summer a deal with cvs to sell our famcy business. we think it's a win/win for both. they'll continue to provide that to our guests. in addition, they'll continue to drive traffic to our stores and we think that's incredibly important. so this is an opportunity for us to provide a better service to our guests and bring more of them in our stores so they can be invited to what we offer and it's a lous us to focus on the signature category. the spring, home, babies, things we know we can do. >> will they be branded cvs

within the store or cvs at target or branded target? >> they'll be branded vcs pharmacies and operate like cvs pharmacies and deliver that same great experience like everywhere else. >> thank you, john mulligan, for joining us here. we really appreciate it. we'll continue to follow your progress. >> we'll see if he gets a mulligan as ceo. had to. sara, back over to you. one under pressure, the box. down 23% in the past month and now box is making a new push to drive growth. jon fortt joins us now. jon? >> thanks, sara. i've got the ceo and co-founder of box with us. you've about got some news. you're opening up a 13,000-square-foot office here in new york. it's outside of your head

quarters at nasdaq, build up. commercial real estate in new york is expensive, aaron. >> yes. coming from san francisco is not so true. >> tell me how being here is going to help accelerate growth. >> yeah. so box serves over 47,000 businesses around the world and through a range of industries and what we've seen is continued success in larger and larger franchises, particularly in industries. so given the son senn trags of businesses throughout the northeast we wanted to have a presence that we could go and make sure our solutions were being successfully implemented. we're excited to be here.

you're said to be cash positive next year. >> yes. >> it was extreme strategy. now you're telling us that more than 10% of your customers are paying customers some of what is it? is it a sales force? >> yes. so we're certainly focused on our markets. with we're building on our sales force and markets. we work with ibm and microsoft that help create more in our distribution. but really what you'll start to see is continuing move up market to work with larger and larger customers like general electric and eli lilly and in the government, the department of justice. as we continue to serve them, you'll continue to see a pretty significant revenue growth rate and more improved efficiency. >> they told me, boy, drop box should have come out sooner with their strategy.

box is doing something right here. what's your barrier to entry going see. of course, microsoft and google have their own ambitions. >> so one of the benefits of fwhg this space for 10 1/2 years is we built out a very broad platform. all of the ways that you need to scale information management and storage in your company and that's very different than what a lot of other players in the market are focused on. it's way more about consumer about business and fike access and sharing. we're building a platform that helps hospitals be able to exchange medical information. it helps financial services share provider content. it helps life sciences firms. so it's a very different type of technology and thus command as different type of value from customers that we serve.

>> aaron levie. thank you. back to you. >> a big triple dow. let's take you over here to look at the lag ards today. no surprise with oil drifting below $21 a barrel. the losers, chevron, exxonmobil. they're sneaking into the bottom. intel, walmart. the countdown to the feds. minutes is on. it's just minutes away. it may be a market mover. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. dent's ever g of the campus on day one. but you're armed with a roomy new jansport backpack, a powerful new dell 2-in-1 laptop, and durable new stellar notebooks, so you're walking the halls with varsity level swagger. that's what we call that new gear feeling.

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welcome back to "power lunch." as a result, energy is standing out as the worst performing sector in the s&p 500 tracking for its worst day since january. this move puts 85% of stoxxs in the s&p 500 energy index in bear market territory down by 20% or more. again, by 20% or more. leading the declines today are marathon oil, chesapeake. they're all down. big down day, sara, of course,

for oil. back over to you. >> really ugg. thanks, dom. they say 48% of people who have tried apple music have stopped using it. this is based on a survey. apple refuting the results saying that 79% of the people who signed up are continuing to use the music service. weight watchers higher on an upgrade from morgan stanley to equal weight from underweight and coca-cola taking a minority steak. this is coca-cola's latest to diversify. juice has been a growth area for beverages. >> juice. we've got big headlines to discuss. and who better to discuss them than one of my favorite guests bill george. he's released a new book called "discover your new north." you do vignettes or studies of people from swartz to arianna

huffington and leaders. if there's a thread here, it is that you strongly believe that the best leaders are authentic, true to themselves, know their direction. what does it mean to be an authentic leader and can you learn it to your just have to be it? >> thank you for asking. i'm more excited about the discovery between north and any book i've ever written. authenticity, since i wrote my first book 12 years ago has really become the gold standard for leaders. it's not just about iq and being smart. you have to connect the head and the smart and the heart being emotional. >> how do you -- >> talk about donald trump do. you want to have any millennials working for you? you're not going to work for a phony. >> you anticipated my next

question. donald trump. >> inauthentic. phony. >> why. >> angry. never speaks the truth. saufts what he says and not the real guy. >> can you but authentic and be a jerk? >> there are difficult people. steve jobs no doubt was difficult. steve jobs 2 knew how to bring about high iqs and he changed a lot. >> let's talk about a leader whose style has been under the microchip scope this week and that's jeff bezos. amazon and bezos dispute which indicates that the corporate culture is extremely demanding. >> so what i say. demanding is one thing. harsh is another. what do you think? authentic leader or not? >> i think jeff's very authentic. he's proved it, stayed with it.

yeah, it's a tough culture. he sets very high standards. a lot of people feel that article didn't accurately reflect amazon. the crush today, are you creating sustainable culture and can you sustain innovation to ensure people stay with you. a lot of people will work for you for two or three years but can you keep them for 20 or 30 years because this is a great place to work. >> a lot of people at apple have stayed a long time and it's a very difficult culture. you're on the board at goldman sachs. very demanding. >> very demanding. >> a lot of demanding competitive places and often the cream does rise to the top. let's talk about other things in the news. general electric as has other companies doing away with annual performance reviews. i believe medtronic did that. what do you think about that and

how does that fit into the picture of discovering. >> i believe in doing it real time. what did you learn from this experience. >> i think the best feedback is 360 that comes from your subordinates and peers. you're hearing from one person and it's a judgment. at harvard business school, where you teach, i get the most. >> that's where you learn the most. >> yes. you learn from the critique. you don't learn by all the great things. you learn by what you're doing wrong and you improve. that's how you become authentic. >> one is the idea that higher arctic cal leadership ak practiced by jack welch is probably out now, right? >> exactly. look at what jack has done.

>> as i said to you earlier, not a lot of business guys are good writers. you're a good writer. i've enjoyed your book discover the real north. sara. >> we've got to bring him back and ask about hillary clinton. >> ask him. >> we'll bring him back. lots of time with bill george. i know he's a contributor. watch the markets here. stocks taking a deep drop. triple digits. less than 40 minutes from now, how traders are taking positions ahead of this big market mover next. at ally bank no branches equals great rates. it's a fact. kind of like mute buttons equal danger. ...that sound good? not being on this phone call sounds good. it's not muted. was that you jason? it was geoffrey! it was jason. it could've been brenda. i've got a nice long life ahead.

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but your stellar notebook gives hanyou the gumptionlc. to reach for the sky. that's that new gear feeling. this week, these office depot brand notebooks just one cent. office depot officemax. gear up for school. gear up for great. stocks are in the red. off the lows for the dow, but still it's down almost 150 points. oil hitting a 6.5-year low. let's bring in the director. next up is the fed. what are you doing to that? >> there are two things going on. it was a one-two punch. china set us off badly. then the viewers can go and look at a minute by minute-chart. then at 10:30 -- >> yeah. >> we rallied back. we're battling some resistance around the 200-day moving

average which is 2078 to 2081. >> third time we even hit it in the last few weeks. th >> they're waiting to see. it doesn't pay to double down. i think they may be a little hesitant. >> importantly volume picking up during the selling. >> it certainly did. we're well on the verge of going to 18,000. >> we'll see you later. let's take a look at how gold prices are closing as we see gold higher today. yep, higher by about $10.50. interestingly the dollar has weakened into the fed minutes after strengthening for the last few weeks. silver, copper, palladium, platinum, all stronger today. you saw rick santelli. let's get over to chicago the latest with the fed minutes. rick. >> sara, you know, the treasury market listened to even that art cashin said but that was all

synthesized. let's look. you can see. we see one group of traders here. high frequency momentum, guys. they all jumped on board but look what happened. they went the other way. you see the well after the number the yield started coming down. now look at the s&p futures chart. that's probably why. put them both together and they correlate nicely. you can see it looks like a lot of distance covered. we're consolidating. back to you, tyler. >> investors clearing up. what they're thinking when it comes to lift-off time. how should you play it? we'll tell you how stocks usually trade following the release of the fed minutes. the countdown to the fed minutes is on. 32.31 to go. we're back in two on cnbc, first in business worldwide.

hello, everyone. i'm sue herera with your cnbc news update. there was a threat back in april prompting the evacuation. he was arrested in lubbock, texas. another sinkhole has opened up in the same location where man was swallowed up two years ago in his sleep. it was surrounded by a metal fencing on a vacant lot. this time no one was injured. there was a recall list issued louisiana last year for headlights that can assistant. it includes the 2000 a and scientists at johns hopkins are claiming a major breakthrough in als research and they're crediting last year's

ice bucket challenges for their success. those challenges raised public aware ps and more than $220 million to help fight lou geh g gehrig's disease. it's a good place to end the news update. you're up to date. let's go to ty. back to you. >> that's really, really terrific news. >> isn't that great? i think they're going to do a second round of the ice bucket challenge as well. you and i should do it. >> you're on. >> we deal it. >> i'm going on vacation, so we'll do it afterward. >> absolutely, ty. see you then. the latest fed minute is going to be released in about 28 michbltss. d dom chu has been crunching the data. >> let's look at the stocks, dollars, and kmoldties. if you bought the day before, that means yesterday and gone

back, average gain five days later about half a percent. it's positive. since yellen took over the fed in terrell part of 2014. now moving on to the dollar, the dollar index you can see up by nearly again half a percent. it's up 92% of the time. this is just during the yellen chairman fed chair and the gold story, dollar, gold, they kind of relate to each other. positive 25% of the time. just one out of every four instances. negative most of the time. again, sara, interesting trades here at least in recent history during the yellen fed era. back over to you, sara. >> we'll see what happens later this afternoon, dom. thanks. the dow is down 100 points almost a full percent as we await the fed minutes. the s&p down right now less than a full percent. still down 18. nasdaq taking a hit heading for its worst month of the year.

joining us to discuss all of this, chief investment strategist at russell investment. let's start with you on energy. i know it's not your favorite sector but with 85% of energy companies and bear market territory can you at least be looking for bargains or is there more pain there? >> i think in the near term there might be a little more pain when you consider the new production that's going to be coming out of iran in the coming months and you look at the store's numbers that came out. but there are bargains to be had. typically energy stock dividends have been historically resilient. you want to look at the price to book ratios and right now the relative price to book of the energy sector relative to the broader market is the lowest it's been in many decades. there are deals to be had. >> the energy move. the question of the day can the

federal reserve raise it with sell offmarkets in china and potentially global growth slowing? >> well, we think they can. if you look at just the isolated yoous which is not something you want to do all the time but if you look at the components, it's running very strong. you see wage structures. they're running out of the ability to build future dis-inflative margins on the market it could bounce back pretty quickly. job growth is the key in their minds and they think it will move forward.

>> so given your view, what does that mean for the stockmarket and what sectors do you want to be in given you're expecting a move here, erik. >> well, even with the mookt we expect the u.s. economy to continue to grow at kind of a 2.5% to 3% rate. that would be good for stocks. i expect stocks to close higher at the end of the year. consumers are employed and they're buying houses or building homes and you need to finance those. you're buying homes, you need to finance those. we also like health care as kind of a hedge. >> burns, you like banks as well. i can't tell you the number lately that like financials into higher interest rates and better use of economy. but interestingly you like the telecom. we haven't heard that too much, why? >> it's been badly out of favor in the last several years. the year before that it was the worst performing sector. we're looking at the telecom

sector. they've gotten in check because of that ujds performance. you still see some of the best dividend deals in the market and one of the biggest positives is capital spending as a proportion of revenues is going down across the sector which means more room for names like atat and verizon. >> thank you for the tips. be sure to go to powerlunnch.cnbc.com to see why erik says the fed will raise rates in september. that seems to be the prevailing feel down here. >> every day thousands of flights take off every day. they have passengers in a choke hold. the faa estimates the cost of congestion and delays is $22 billion a year now and if things don't improve, it will escalate

to $63 billion by 2024. phil lebeau joins us from the denver international airport with the answers. phil. >> reporter: tyler, thank you very much. one reason we're here in denver is because this expert has already instituted a lot of nextgen technologies. you're probably saying to yourself, what is next jep and why do i care. you do care about it if you travel. it's a series of technologies. they're gps-based. in four or five decades most of the routing of airplanes has been radar-based. nextgen makes it gps based. it's not only in the air but at airports. it will hope friday improve congestion which lee to delays. the worst delays in the country,

newark markets, laguardia, jfk. critics say nextgen is going to be too clotly and it will be effective. >> the problem is we're paying for it now. it just allows them to buy the wrong things faster. >> reporter: let's bring in michael huerta. he essentially runs the faa. he joins us exclusively from washington, d.c. you heard the criticism from michael boyd. what do you say to those who look at the nextgen system and say, you know what? it's too costly and not going to make a difference. >> i disagree. we've completed the work for the most part and now we're delivering benefits. we're very focused in the near term on performance-based navigation, which your setup piece showed there in denver, and the effect of that is it

reduces track miles flown. we're doing a lot of work on multiple run way operations. we're doing a lot of work. >> but is it's fish ency? pardon me. they say i feel like the system is moving smoother now. >> what they're going to see is less time on the ground. they're going to be quicker off the gate. quick never the air for a smoother flight and an on-time arrival. >> last week there was the glitch in washington, d.c. which caused numerous headaches. are you confident that we will not have that happen again as you roll out this technology across the country? >> yeah. we have actually determined the root cause of last saturday's incident. what it was was a software patch

to control things at the air traffic control center. we've been working with our contractor lockheed martin. we're identifying the problem. working on a patch. it won't happen again. >> michael, one last question. a lot of people look at the delays in the cy. they'll say the problem is they continue to pack the airlines even though you've hat to step in and say knock it off. are we going to be able to avoid that in the future? >> clearly errants represent a particular challenge we're looking for but we have technology that enables us to move more efficiently on the ground. they look at the impact of their operation and we're woking with airports to develop it to make

sure traffic does not cross departing runways. we're very focused on how do we get the maximum efficiency from the infrastructure we have in place and we need to work collaboratively across the whole industry, all of us working together to make it happen. >> michael huerta joining us exclusively from washington, d.c. tyler, that's the latest on it for "power lunch." let me send it back to you. i know you've about got breaking news. >> thank you very much. rates and refies, two of the things driving the housing market. the latest fed minutes come out at the top of the hour. will we get clues about whether a rate hike will happen in september? take a look at the sectors right now. as sara mentioned a few minutes ago, all of them are in the red. energy, the worth of a said lot.

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welcome back to "power lunch." most said at the july meeting they had not been achieved in july but they said the conditions were approaching. there's a little bit of back and forth. tla said a prompt start to normalization was seen conveying confidence in the economy. a lot of talks about china with a spillover raising some concerns the chinese market decline was seen having little impact but some say a material slowdown in the chinese economy posed a risk to the u.s. outlook. also a little bit to talk about where the rusks seemed somewhat.

it strengthened the dollar. a lot of talk about impact os testify rate ostown dollar and the fed stats revised down. some participants said downward risk imposed a risk to inflation and the dollar being the sources of that. most, however, saw the energy and the dollar effects as temporary. there's a manufacturing slowdown also seen as temporary. and they set out proposals for winding it down. they say you could do it, characterize it qualitatively why you would set it down or give a date and time when you would raise them. there was more support for characterizing it. finally some said an end to reinversement would be all at once.

tyler, my take on this overall, they're scheduled but they keep saying again and again they have to cooperate. >> my first question is for ste steve, and that is this. is it any more likely than it was an hour or go or not? >> i think it was more likely. theyer were like saying we're not ready now but we think we're going to be ready soon. as you read the minutes it's a qualitative assessment on my part with a bunch of holdouts in the room who say don't do it, don't do it. don't do it. there's one section where it feels like they're making a race. that's my qualitative assessment. >> with one eye, folks, we watch the early release of the fed minutes. we look at the market.

sarah and bob it looks like the market picked up a little bit in the past few minutet. stooks were off the l. >> about 15, 16 as news came out. there you see that's about two points but, look, i don't think the conditions for rate rise nearing. most have been in the one and done camp for it. we know two things. the majority want to raise rates and they'red about losing it. the easiest way, raise it once and then say they're going to watch the market for some length of time. i think the economic conditions

-- >> they're watching china. they say any material growth could hurt the u.s. >> remember, that's not the immediate part of their mandate. maybe, steve, you can address this. i think there's too much emphasis on the china data including the retail sales numbers we saw recently. >> i neemt going to say whether there's too much one way or the other. they do talk about china. they say it's something that first of all the stockmarket itself doesn't pose a risk. their're mindful of what's happening out there. i think for sara's interest in currencies, there's a lot of talk in there about the issue of whether or not raising rates is going to have a negative effect or positive effect and have a negative effect on inflation. that's something they're very,

very mindful of. >> because they're feeling it. >> they've knock thad onto is that going to hurt our manufacturing sector. >> because we're feeling the effects of a strong dollar. we mentioned stocks. let's look at oil. oil was lagging. broke below $2 a barrel. let's look at the chart. heading toward breaking 40 potentially. 4078 is your price for crude oil. >> they dropped at $10.30. imported picked up. there's the dollar index. >> down half a percent. >> on the news of it -- they broke an embargo. >> you can see it on the euro if you pull it up. the euro pops on the move. interesting take there because that's a devish reaction. >> so the market seems to be betting a little bit against e

the. >> let's get more on the bond market reaction. rick santelli on the cme group tracking the trade. rick? >> it's erupted. if you look at the dollar inconnection mark, i marked the market. is anybody talking about the notion? these news agencies have to get in line. we see a lot of this. we're down 20. we're down half a cent. let's look at the five-year. it was around 154 when i was on not that long ago and it's now

trading down to 150 but as you look at 10s and 30s, a little volatility, but it was at 215. it's at 214. you could make a case against the long end of the market. it's now at 283. so let's summarize. you're in a blindfolded room. you have no idea how a news agency. the last thing i could think of is they're factors more of a tight new england right now. thank you very much. >> we're connell to market action. they were released early. so we've the news out there for you. the bottom line is most fed officials in ju saw conditions for a rate rise no problems. it was already down triple digits. it's down 120.

oil is the big mover. we'll talk about the reactions and what it all means here on power lunch. u. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place that lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim? for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this.

lots of dwra ma this afternoon. let's give you a market check. the dow is down 127.

earlier today it was down as much as almost 230. s&p 500 down 0.7%. 14. the nasdaq down 30. the biggest reaction where the dollar was weaker all day was pulling back. bottom line, the federal reserve has a meeting. it's going to be debating whether it's going happen in september. we'll have much more on "power lunch" straight ahead. it's a fact. kind of like shopping hungry equals overshopping.

well, folks, we expected to hand it over to brian sullivan straight up at 2:00 p.m. but a different news organization broke the embargo. the minutes came out early, the markets reacting, oil tanking, exxon and chevron down heavy pulling the dow down with it. that will do it for the first hour of power. brian take it away for hour two. >> exciting moment. >> wow. >> oil is down. maybe about to break 41 bucks. idiot did a few minutes ago. steve liesman, i guess you have more time.

what is its saying? >> more time to be confused. they did say conditions were, high, quote, approaching. some objected the inflation data was not progressing toward target. some were saying it would be met shortly. there was an argument or prompt start to normalization seen conveying confidence in the economy and a lot of debate about china. some said it raised concerns for the u.s. economy. others said it had little impact on chinese growth but there was pretty good agreement. there was tear economic slowdown. my favorite barometer was the two-year note where the yield fell quite substantially from the 70 range down to 66. i think it was four basis points. that's a big move for a

short-term note like that. people were thinking the tightening was coming up sooner. looking at that two-year yield -- is that 65 right now? that ice an interesting number. it would keep things on check by november and certainly december. >> they were saying the odds of a september rate hike are less than they were when they came out. they track this kind of stuff thank you to our data team. 36% are the odds that we get a september rate hike. 85% chance in december, but, guys, that is down from 100% before the minutes were released. so we definitely respect your view. >> one thing i will say is there was a lot of talk about the impact of the dollar to the extent that the fed was not

ready to hike. >> we're going to find out. we're going to go to bob pisani in just a minute. we have seen since these july meetings happen, we've seen a deflationary spiral in commodity, at least in the short term. every commodity down. bob, there's a lot to talk about here, but you know what we're going to talk about to lead the 2:00 show, energy. i tweeted out a picture. every energy stock on my screen is down. some by double digit percentages. it's ugly in energy right now. >> chevron dragging the dow down. we're seeing new lows. exxon not quite there. marathon. they're all at new lows. the headline we saw of the 140 coming out. it did cause the s&p to rise a

little bit. it was interesting to see there was a dovish reaction to it. again, debatable about why you can read a dovish comment into that. but if you look at the kbe, which is the bank index and steve mentioned the yields in the middle of the fed treasury, did move around a little bit. we saw banks move down. often when you see yields move down, that's a negative for banks. we saw it move down as represented by the kbe. but he's right about the energy stocks. xle is the one you want to watch. that's the main etf for energy. volumes have been very strong today. there have been five or six times this year where we've seen big climax accesses. they have failed. by my count this is the time this year that they have failed. there's been notable volume

today. you cannot say, oh, it's day in august and there's no volume. actually we're getting very good volume. volume's here are well above the normal level so, brian, this is not just a sleepy day in august that we're seeing. we're definitely seeing some action. >> i'm looking at the screens and if the guys of our team in the best of the business. one does wonder to your point about this capitulation. conical phillips is down 4%. you've got "s" corporation. we pointed out two weeks ago, bob, that the big nine western oil companies, six in america, three in western europe have lost $400 billion in market cap in four months. that's now going to be a bigger nan number.

you wonder -- and i apologize for the term, puking on the oil companies to a point where the sem errs are gone. >> that's exactly what a capitulation day is. i don't know about marathon but they're 50% abong normal and other niangs. that's what a capitulation day is. i don't care what the price is. get me out kind of thing. my point is we have seen this half a dozen times so far this year. that's why i'm not coming out and saying this is what it is. i can say it's a capitulation day but it's not necessarily a bottom. i'm pretty sure this is a short-term bottom. if you put up the xle. i don't know if you put up a moment here to date. one in january, there was one in february, a couple in july and august where we saw very heavy vacuum days when it bottomed and then started coming back in the

next few days, but ever single time -- there's the xle for the week but every single time attempting to buy on these. you can't see the volume days but there are six days where it's been heavy, heavy bottoms. >> yeah. it's not my job but i will say this, bob. you're spot on about the volumes. a number of big names down. linn energy down. wpx down 9.6%. bob pisani, i're sure we're going talk more about it. the dollar is twaulgly being impacted in maybe a different way. sara eisen with more. >> that was where the biggest move was, that was dollar

weakness. not exactly what you would expect to see if you were preparing for minutes. that's what's been drivinging the dollar up to multi-year drives. this is dollar against a basket of other currencies. it did move lower on that early release of the fed minutes. there's the flip side of the chart. what does that signal? something in there was telling them there was not an interest rate hike coming. perhaps it was all the concerned about appreciation weighing on growth and the chinese markets or the fact their inflation target simply has not been met. lots of hiation in there. either way the currency market is giving a strong signal now that they're not expecting an

imminent rate hike and that seems like what's happens, in the rest of the markets. it's not a sharp crazy move, a 1%, 2%, 3% move which we've been accustomed to in currencies, but it is a pull back that, of course, the fed is watching very carefully as they said and every everyo everyone else as well. >> meantime we're keeping an eye on the market. we do see money flowing into utilities with the slu heading session highs. let's kick it over to rick santelli who's in chicago with all the action. rick. >> melissa, i need running shoes today. i'll tell you what. one of the big topics these days is it's not what they wanted to do but that they're not communicating it properly. case in point, fed fund futures.

let's start there. if it goes up. november are up 2 1/2 on the day. december is up 3. it isn't a messages problem. the words couldn't be made any clearer. went about $110.60 to $110.90 on the euro. now if you look at twos, fives, steve lee i is right. awe you have to do is look at the unbelievable amount of steepening going on in the curve. not from it going up but short rates going down. there is a certain market here.

that's a hard call in my opinion. back to you. >> let us bring in rich from pimco. he's been sitting here patiently. thank you very much. steve liesman is still here as well. the large market is turning dovishly. is that how you read it? >> you know, the thing with the fed minutes. today really shows us that data dependence is not a monetary policy. my sense is that this is a committee that wants to hike. i haven't seen every word in the minutes but certainly the fact that it tells me that the odds

in september have gone up. certainly they didn't take it off the table. you'd have to infer maybe the markets were looking for something in neon. yes, we're going to hike. we didn't get that. >> with this fed are we ever going to get anything in neon, richard? >> maybe not. but i think it's important. >> it's an interesting statement you made. flush that out. >> the problem is you always get data. what you need to know is how will the fed take that data and translate into policy. what they've said is we're looking at a lot of data and we're looking to hike. >> you correctly mentioned, brierngs this is one of the world's leading monetary experts who writes the papers that are read by the guys in office right now and all around the world. >> thank you, steven. >> i just want it made known.

>> that intro was so long. >> but it's important what richard things. to these kind of crazy things where indeed fed may be trying to send a signal where they're going to hike in september and it's on the table and the market goes the other way, that's a problem. >> as i have sort of half facetiously said on this program. if we're going to be completely data-dependent, get a robot and plug in the algorithm. >> that's the prochblt if humans didn't matter. make a program and when certain data points are hit, automatically rates move up or down. i'm obviously being facetious, but you get the point. >> you can take data dependence to an extreme and i think perhaps the yellen fed is getting to that point. >> that's the art that you're talking about. ultimately we're dealing with human beings.

we're dealing with human beings that are not only trained economists in different ways, right. but there are also human beings with mortgages whoo hopefully go to the store, look at prices. is there any read probably knowing some of these where they may be gathered what they're thinking? >> i think we and others -- they cast a wide net but i think getting back to steve's point, inflection points are always tricky. when you into the first hike or cut, that's when the premium is on is on messaging. of course,ty data's very important. data dependence is not enough. >> i need to in ter erupt you

for a second. the dow was up for a minute. >> maybe they're coming to your side. >> snono. i think that's the reaction. >> they're coming to the view that the fed rats -- >> that was not true. there was only a 45% chance. >> it's going to be september or after. not any sooner. this is the same situation as an hour ago. >> no, it's not. it's different, melissa. >> i don't know if these going to move off the 70% low. that was sort of a question to someone in some way. >> i guess i disagree with melissa in that i see a pretty substantial change in the outlook. i think what richard said was interesting that maybe they went into this with some sense of imminence either early in

september or it was a done deal in september, i don't know. but what i would be interested in is, yes, it is douvish. maybe it's the concerns about the dollar or the oil. >> back off of a hike? >> yeah. >> it seems to me -- and i wanted to get your opinion, steve or rich. that it was an impact with energy. this sometime it seemed raich they're a little more concerned. >> my read of the minutes is that they see these things as temporary. that could be a possibility. >> you remember at the time of the fed meeting it was about the equitiy selloff. many took it as a soon that pramz their economy is weaker. part of the challenge is looking

at them today knowing what we know and given what the fed knew at the time. >> there's a lot that has changed in a couple of weeks. we're going to walk you through this crazy market data myths let's take a look at that. thank you very much for being fast. the nadial and u.s. dollar trade as well. they vn been obliterated from the strong perspective. a lot of the commodities matter. kind of a crazy commodity day. someone hit the power button early. don't you hit the button. we'll be right back. [ piercing sound ]

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welcome back to "power lunch," following the release of fomc minutes, we're seeing a slight reversal on the day. we took a look at the peak positive territory. take a look at the sectors all turning green so far on the day. interesting, of course, melissa, that on this particular move higher it's the interest rate sensitive ones helping to lead the way higher. of course, interest rates broadly low owner the day. back over to you. >> thank you, dom. j.p. kelly. guys, good to see you. lindsey, i want to start off with you. we were having a bit of a debate

before and with everybody in the world of whether this changes the interest rates. what's your take? >> fed officials acknowledging that although the economy has taken steps in the right direction the current conditions do not yet justify a rate increase. this reinforces the status quo is not good enough, that the fed will remain on the sideline waiting for further improvement. you couple that and it reinforces our long held forecast that the fed will wait beyond that september meeting, beyond that december meeting and really make a lift-off of a 2016 event. >> wow. >> we've maintain thad call for quite some time and i think these minutes reinforce that notion. >> david, do you agree with lindsey on the 2016 take?

and i'm curious if those impacts are temporary as the fed says right now. >> first of all i don't agree with 2016 personally i think they will go. it's not a strong economy. you know, just because you miss out in the summer doesn't mean you have to miss out. they've got to raise rate as bit so they've got ammunition when they get hit by the next recession. since the minutes -- since that meeting, we've had good job numbers, very good retail numbers and good housing numbers and i think, you know, we'd like to see more wage gains but i think the fed is going to move in september but i certainly think they will move before 2016. they'll either move in september or december because they want to communicate very clearly what they're doing. i think they really need to get going. that's what -- i mean my big problem is so what from a u.s.

economic perspective. low commodity prices are generally a positive for the u.s. economy. so, you know, when i think about labor mar connect dynamics which is probably the most important thing for the federal reserve. if the labor market is still tightening, that to me is a key criteria. >> which it is, lindsey. you know, we always focus on inflation with the fed. you mentioned wages earlier. the data came out. up 2.2%. nothing to write home about but not terrible. 5.2 open jobs. it's 2.6%. don't you feel like the fed is waiting for some kind of perfection that we will never see. >> we've also seen 58 consecutive months of positive job creation. we've seen 11 million jobs created since the end of the recession, but that's still not adequate to an soush the

lingering move. it doesn't count the millions of americans that are only employed part time. that doesn't include the millions who have dropped out looking for employment. so from the fed's perspective, it's not just tell the half glass full story. they're looking at the component of wage stories and wages remain stagnant as they have since the end of the recession and if the labor market was, narkin fact, absorbing that, it would be 3% or 4%. >> i think that's a misread. a lot of what is happening is older workers are being replaced by younger workers because they're retiring. that's pressing on lower inflation rate.

i do except the wage growth is low but i don't think there's much slack. i think the federal reserve there's not much slack in the labor market and certainly not enough to justify what is still the eastiest monetary policy in the century. >> i think they have acknowledging it but looking at those minutes the fed says right now we can't justify a rate increase because there still hasn't been enough improvement. september is four weeks away and there's not going to be enough time for improvement to raise rates near term. >> it will be a post thanksgiving gift or early christmas gift. we'll have you both back on soon. thank you, both. >> thank you. right now the dow, s&p, and nasdaq have made a come back. folks, we were down triple digits in a deep way and we came

back in a matter of about 30 minutes' time after the fed minutes. oil was below 41 bucks, it's $41.30 right now. much more market coverage on a crazy fed day. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide for a darn good reason. we're back after this. technology empowers us to achieve more. it pushes us to go further. special olympics has almost five million athletes in 170 countries. the microsoft cloud allows us to immediately be able to access information, wherever we are. information for an athlete's medical care, or information to track their personal best.

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just search, compare, and apply at creditcards.com. ♪a one, a two, a three percent cash back♪ business in slowdown in china has been nearly the perfect storm for the canadian company. diedre with more. >> it's rebounding. oil continues to move lower. the loony is lower and if you take a look at the ewc, this is an ewt. it's hitting 52-week lows.

that's just today. over the last well canada's economy has been in a world of pain. that's because it's very resource-dependent. because of that we're one month away from measuring a possible technical recession even though we aren't technically there consumers are already feeling the pinch. have a listen. >> this year i would sabow news go down, salaries almost the same the prices of food and everything are going up. >> i know my daughters working in restaurants are seeing less coming in. >> i cut back on a lot of luxury items that i thought were necessary. now i have to rethink everything i purchase and find ways to cut back. >> if consumers and businesses are already scaling back, analysts say this could strangle growth in canada for years to come. this is a dangerous thing. of course, the biggest thing is being felt in the oil fields.

alberta is taking a heavy, heavy towel. the canadian benchmark dropped below 30 canadian dollars earlier this week. that's the biggest discount to the american, the u.s. benchmark in about a year and it ooh is the lowest level since 2008. that's heaping more pain onto the canadian economy. but the pain extends past the oil industry and past the energy industry as wilt yochl u see it with the housing market and other resources slumping. so household debt also at a report high and people here are watching that next print. it's out september 1st to see if we're in a recession and folks here are talking about whether there could be another interest rate cut. pack over to you. >> thank you very much. check this out. it's down nearly 20%. of the 247 or so stocks in that

composite, only 37 are higher this year and a staggering 26 of those are down more than 70% just this year. wow. all right. big move to down side oil. let's go down to jackie deangelis. jackie. >> good afternoon to you. we closed at $4 a bare. as you mentioned intraday falling under 41. we haven't seen those levels since 2009. what'sing are interesting here is the products are getting slammed today. this is after we got a build in crude oil inventories. the reason the they're getting slammed is anticipation of falling off in the united states. you expect that lead to more crude inventory building. if we continue to see it rise we're going to continue to have a problem with a supply glut on our hands. meantime we have a little bit of a weaker dollar right now.

testing new lows today and what we've seen in terms of patterns is when we test them, then we break them. back to you. >> jackie deangelis, thank you. melissa, for much of the day, all ten were lower and that's changed dramatically. energy remains by far the worst performing sector of the sector. it's well off its worst level but down by 2% so far so keep an eye on the energy stocks still not participating in this rally. more on the markets coming back in two minutes. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide.

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hello, everyone. i'm sue herera. here is your cnbc news update this hour. a secret agreement will allow iran to use its own experts to inspect a site allegedly developed to develop nuclear arms. critics have claimed it's built on trust of the iranians, a claim the obama administration has denied. authorities say 27 bodies have been recovered from a site where a passenger plane crashed over the weekend. all 54 were killed when the

plane slammed into a mountain in bad weather. jared fogle left the court after pleading guilty. he will pay $1.4 million to 14 minor victims each receive $100,000. he will register as a sex offender. his prison sentence will be between 5 1/2 to 12 years. his wife is seek divorce. the couple have two children. they will not rehear the appeal of former illinois governor rod blagojevich on his corruption conviction. his only option is an appeal to the u.s. supreme court. he's serve 14g-year prison sentence. that is the cnbc news update this hour. back to you. time now for street talk. our daily dive. you need to hear about it. you ready to gorks melissa? >> ready. >> first up, two stocks and one

call. conway, the margins there should improve because the ltl has fewer than the truck load segment which apparently has driv driver shortages. also it's deserves because of best in class. $32 on knight, 34 on con-way. >> i'm watching smuckers. smuckers, we should know, suffered two years of retail sales. credit suisse thinks it's a fallen star, analyst's words. the stock is trading well below its normal evaluation so they don't have to do anything heroic to make it work. >> intuit, deutsche bank, buying interest up from a hold. target boosted. the analysts think that intuit can overachieve the 2 million

fiscal market in 2017. they also like their early interestet. by the way, intuit's earnings come tomorrow. >> habit restaurant gets an upgrade. the stock is up 5% right now. the analysts had a mutual raining but the stock has pulled back down about 30%. the risk here is a pullback in the entire group's evaluation. >> final the under the radar name, also the last one we do, d d dermira, the ticker derm, coming out. they understood serve. that wraps up street talk for fed wednesday. let's go "trading nation."

we don't care about the next one. we care about the last one. we vlaarry and todd. larry, on a day like today i have no idea what to ask so say something as a matter of fact. >> it's sim pll mathematics. $17 trillion of global gdp and $18 trillion of u.s. gdp. credit the fall on emerging markets in asia. credit the fault protection on large banks in asia. so the's credit risk, chinese slowdown is impacting many markets around the world and that is presented a risk to the u.s. and it's presenting a risk to the feds' september 8 hike. >> there you. that was smart talk. gordon from a chart perspective, chart, do they look like buyers

have been coming in? we've been weak. >> i'll leave the smart comments to you and larry. i'm going to speak logically. you have china markets breaking down. emerging markets breaking down. the s&p continues to nearly rangebound. we have not seen this market in some time. this market showing an incredible amount of resilience. post fed minutes you had the positive come back so i think the upside is in play ads we head to the end of the year. we haven't broken down. it's really kind of suggesting that that logical approach will emerge. todd and larry, thanks very much. by the way, if you want to simi do two separate ones go there. not while you're driving throw.

$40 target. not as much upside as i had said so my apologies for that. there you go. you've got utilities, telecom discretionaries up. everything else, staples, materials, energy, six maids amilking all down. kind of a wacky day when the fed minutes were released early. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. >> and now the latest from tradingnation.cnbc.com and a word from our sponsor. >> if you're sitting on the sideline it's difficult to do but it's important to not overtrade. in times of high volatility you may want to consider traiting less or reducing the sides of your traz and when things get really crazy, sometimes the best trade to make is no trade at all.

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let's check in with body

pisani. what stands out to me is it's still a little higher which means they're still in the bond proxy stocks and maybe a fed rate hike is farther off. >> middle of the yields drop there. that's generally a little bit better -- not great for some of the bank names but can be pretty good for some of the other names. not a dull day in august. i want to point out what's going on in the volumes. we rallied about 14 points when that embargo was broken early on the federal reserve on the fomc minutes. the bottom line, very heavy volume. normally does 105 million shares. we're way past that. it's not a dull day by any means. there are very clear signs we're in heavy overbought conditions and i just want to point out here, there's the semiconductor

one. a lot more to talk about but i've got go go back to you. >> we have a breaking news alert right now on the get from steve liesman. steve. >> thanks very much. bloomberg out with a statement acknowledging it was the source of the relief. they're scheduled to come out at 2:00. instead they came out in that half hour between 1:30 and 2:00 bloomberg saying in the process of preparing bargained material, we inadvertently sent a headline. no word on how this happened. they have checks and balances to make sure it doesn't. but it does. >> taking credit. >> credit or blame, brian. >> kritd or blame. i was trying to be polite. listen, we receive this happen with many news organizations, but, you know, ultimately there's somebody putting something somewhere or a button is hit or a computer is fired

early. we've seen, have we not, the federal reserve release it on its own. >> yeah. and one hopes that news organizations are very, very careful with this material. i know we all. all you can say is it's a human process and sometimes it breaks down. >> that's why you have a suitcase chained to your wrist. >> if anybody could have been here, 1:30 when that broke, you never saw more makeup put on and ties put on more awkwau awkward crude oil down another half a percent. below $41 a barrel at one point and of all the cities, perhaps none have been hit harder than, yeah, you guessed it, houston. that does not scare our next guest.

they're still betting big. we'll tell you how and where. stick around.

all right. now for something that you were only going to see in this hour. our power city index. these are 38 city and metro area stocks that we built exclusively

for you, america, and the world, and rather than focusing on a specific city today, we thought we'd show you some of the best and the worst of our 38 over the past three months. because it is a tale of two different stock markets. the best performing cities for the stock market over the past three months are, raleigh, north carolina, up an average of 8.5%. you've got seattle up 8.1%, and los angeles doing well. up 5.3% over the past 90 days. but now we turn to the worst and the story here, of course, energy. bier the way, phoenix, down 14.1% in large part because the weakness of freeport mcmoran and others, you've got others down 13.5%. and energy bringing down houston over 90 days. houston pci has lost 10.5%. by the way, dallas didn't make the top three worst, but it was the fourth worst performer down 8.5% over the past three months, maybe some texas-sized trouble. austin, houston, and dallas pcis not doing well.

that drop in the houston stock market as of late is not scaring your next guest. he laughs or at least builds in the face of danger. recently closing on a nearly 6,000-square-foot lot on a very prime piece of property located in the exclusive river oaks region of the houston neighborhood. an expected cost of $1 million. bringing the man in behind the project. richard, when i read that story this morning, thank you for coming on, i said, are these guys nuts? isn't there an oil crisis? you're not crazy, are you? >> no, brian, i don't think so. but good afternoon and thank you for having me. i appreciate it. >> why now? given everything that's going on. are you feeling the oil pain at all? >> well, anyone in houston who says they're not feeling the oil pain is lying. we all do feel it here. but one thing about houston compared to the 1980s crash that we experienced was our economy

is vastly diversified from where it was in the 1980s. back then, energy was 80% of our total economy, now it's just over 40%. it's still a large part of our economy. but the city of houston has grown so much, it's grown past energy as the soul driver of our local economy. >> so would you have done this in the 1980s? >> in the 1980s, i was 5. so, no. >> if you were your current age then, given the economy, like you talked about it back then? >> no, i probably would not. given the economy back then, i was not in texas in the '80s, so i did not live through it. but back then, i would not be -- >> for those who don't know, it's fair to call it the beverly hills of houston, if you will. big mansions right downtown, kind of a beautiful area. >> that is very well said. >> thank you very much. i just drive through. i've never been hanging out there. what have you heard from potential buyers, richard? have they said we're in?

do you have people lined up? we like to do it, we're worried about what's going on. >> well, we've had a little bit of both. we have had buyers approach our other projects, as well, that have come in very excited and then after a while express some he h hesitant -- we sell a lot of homes to the medical community, as well. so far i would say honestly, reaction has been pretty good to the project. we had an article in the business journal yesterday, we've gotten phone calls from potential buyers, banks, as well, that want to work with us. and so far, i'd say interest has been very high given the local economy. >> all right. well, certainly good luck, richard, we appreciate you coming on. do us a favor, when things start to move, reach out to us, we'll get you back on and talk about how houston is doing. >> thanks so much. >> thanks very much. melissa. well, the dow is wiping out

200-point losses after the fed minutes released. back to triple digit losses once again on the dow, we're down by about .75%.

even with markets off the session lows, pain in the oil sector, and that's, of course, thanks to the drought in crude oil. one of the executives joins us

on "fast money" at 5:00. there might be an opportunity, brian, in some of these stocks. >> opportunity, he said. melissa, thank you very much. well, the dow is back down 158 points. good grief. what the heck is going on? dan heckman with u.s. bank wealth management and mark joining us now. dan, first to you, down 200, up briefly, back down 155. what the heck is happening? >> well, i think, brian, what's going on is that although the comments out of the fed were dovish, it still creates a level of uncertainty for the market. and it will that gets resolved. we think the market has a tough time moving up. and so, we're not surprised by today's volatility. we think it will continue until we get into september, and it is our hope and belief that the fed would be best off going ahead and raising 25 basis points. >> i guess, mark, what i'm confused about is that maybe it's not september, maybe it's december, maybe it's january. we know the fed is going to raise rates at some point. so where is the confusion?

>> well, i think the confusion lies not so much in what the fed is doing, but something on the other side of the world, brian. and to us, is the fact that china's slowing economy is having blowback ramifications to the emerging market complex, which feeds on china's growth rate to facilitate growth in their respective countries. and i think what we're seeing here is concerns about global deflation and currency wars among many emerging market countries that could lead to something sinister that is going to come from, basically, the emerging market complex that represents 50% of global economic activity. >> all right. so dan, then, where do we invest in an environment such as the one you laid out, quickly, please. >> well, we think you should be investing in high-quality bonds, such as municipals, investment grade corporates, spreads there have widened out dramatically. it's still kind of a risk-off type trade environment. we agree with the other guests. we think if the fed doesn't raise rates in september, it actually sends a negative signal that, perhaps, they know something about the economy

being weaker than -- >> okay. >> what it really is. >> they spook us by inaction. we've got to leave it there, the show's over. thank you very much. >> thank you, brian. >> melissa's out there, thank you. >> that does it for us. thanks for watching. >> i think "closing bell" starts now. there you go. >> welcome to the "closing bell." what a day it's been in markets, everybody. kelly evans a the the new york stock exchange. >> i don't even have a quarter in my pocket. i'm bill griffith. we were trying to decide. joking on twitter, do we lead with the decline in oil or the fed minutes today? they've had big impact. both of them, on the markets today. the dow was down 229 points, then charged back after the fed minutes came back out. and now we're lower again, down 165 points at this hour. you did have those leaked fomc