you, kelly. i don't want to break any embarringembar embargo embargoes. >> i can draw this out for 15 seconds. >> the chairman of microsoft is going to be here. he'll tell bus the company he's personally investing in because he thinks it's going to be the next big thing in silicon valley. >> with that kind of tease -- there we go. straight over to you guys. >> thank you, kelly. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq marketsite overlooking new york city's times square i'm melissa lee. our traders on the desk bricems seymour, brian kelly, karen finerman and guy adami. another rough day for big oil stocks as crude makes a new multiyear low. one big oil name in the dow may have found a bottom and we'll tell you what it is. but first to the story of the night, will they or won't they? confusion about when the fed will raise rates leading to an extremely volatile session for both stocks and bonds. the dow down 229 points at its low, then reversing only to end the day low wrer while the ten-year yield hit session lows right after the release of the

minutes. so is the market predicting a rate rise or not? they seem to be telegraphing a couple different things, b.k. >> a couple different things and a couple different markets are predicting a couple different things. we saw the bond market not react as much as the stock market did. as skoon soon as that news was leaked or broken whatever it was, you saw the stock market rally anticipating the fed's going to have easy monetary policy but then everybody realized this means the economy isn't as good as everybody thinks and it fell apart again. i don't know what they're going to do. i don't think they should raise rates. but even if they dot only reason they have to do it is in case something gets bad. and if you think a quarter point cut when things get bad are going to solve the problem next time out of your mind. >> then how do you think -- i hear you. i don't think the economy's going gangbusters. but they have to raise rates. they've told us -- lockhart who's got the most credibility in the fed has sent the last two weeks sending shots across the bow. and people have been listening. there's an op-ed in the "wall street journal" today from kocha lakota.

how am i doing? look at the vix. up 11% to me. that's not a sign of a market taking comfort from the fed backing off. china was up despite a wild ride intraday when yesterday it was up 6%. people weren't talking about it yesterday. i think china holds in. i think fed is going in september. the housing data is good. it's not great. but they have to go. >> for all this debate, for all this sturm and drung, don't they have to raise in september? otherwise the markets will think things are really, really crappy out there and they'll payne. >> i think they, do and i think they should. to your point baerkz, aboeaks, quarter point, i was talking about whether they should raise an eighth and be done with it and say all right, it doesn't make any difference but there it is, we're disciplined and we're doing the right thing. i think they should. i guess it's data dependent on the -- they seemed to focus most on jobs i guess. so all right, i'll take them at their sort of word. i don't know what the word

actually was. it was a little bit hard to decipher. but i think they should. and i think whether or not they do in september they will in december, does it really make a difference in the scheme of things in the longer term i? don't know that it does. >> definitely think they should. think they will. otherwise, they'll lose any semblance of credibility that they have left. but i don't even know if that's the point at this point. they can control the front end of the curve. i don't think they control anything after that. again, if the economy was as strong as the stock market suggests until the last week or so, then why are the ten-year rates continuing to ratchet lower? they should be going higher on their own, i think. crude oil has gone from 110 to 41-ish. i know -- >> and price is not truth, by the way. >> in that regard. but what is it telling you -- see, i disagree a little bit. i think supply's got a big part of it. the dollar clearly is a part. but i think it's a demand issue as well. at a certain point it is a demand issue. i think economies are logue down. >> well, demand's going to be up 2 1/2% next year. it's not falling apart.

this is all about supply we were up at 222 intraday, close the up on the ten-year. the ten-year is listening to the headlines on what's going on with the fed. but it's the short end of the curve. i think the deflationary forces people see, they're misconstruing in terms of what we're really seeing in terms of commodity prices. the global economy is where it is which is probably sub 2% if you look at the developed world and probably about 3-plus percent in e.m. that's not great but it's not falling apart. >> but that's sub 2%. even sub 3% is what the imf used to call a global recession. so by the old rules we could say we're in a global recession. when we're talking about oil ds an oversupply issue. but what does that tell you? there's overcapacity in the global economy. we have overcapacity in steel and in copper and in iron ore and oil. and what does that mean? that capacity has to come in. that means the economy slows down. that means companies ratchet back. >> if the fed doesn't raise now what are they waiting for the absolute perfect time? because that doesn't seem like

it will ever come. you've got to compromise somewhe somewhere. there's going to be some part of the story that isn't exactly what they hope it to be. >> you bought today. >> i bought the euro, shorted the dollar. that was the first thing i did off that. this is a short-term trade going into the fed meeting. i'll probably have it off before we go into the fed meeting on the idea people are going to start to unwind the strong dollar bet in the sthoermt. i still think long term the dollar goes higher. >> what does that do to the european trade? >> germany, the dax broke the 200 moving day today. if you look at what's emblematic of the dax fall it's industrials, it's autos. global autos are the most co-indicated in terms of chinese demand. not good. quite poor. but i think european stock markets are today's 15%, 20% cheap compared to the s&p. they have the currency benefit, eps momentum they don't have here. i would be waiting for a pullback. 10 seven was a big level on the

dax. 10 five you take a look. >> guy made a point with the front evident yield curve versus the back of the yield curve. which would indicate a flat yield curve. do you take that scenario, the steep yield curve off the table? do you accept that that might not happen? >> i have to accept that it might not happen for sure. although you know, with oil here it's hard to be -- hard to see inflation. but oil could turn. it wouldn't be so shocking to me. >> speak of oil oil touching a 6 1/2-year low today taking down big oil along with it. but there are some signs of a bottom in one name in particular. rich ross is the head of technical analysis at ever khor isi. he's breaking it all down at the smartboard. what are you looking at? >> we're going to look at the big oils today, the integrateds. when you look at this chart this is the xoi. first things first when you look ate monthly chart you know something's gone horribly awry and clearly it has with the integrateds. as a firm we are neutral on the integrated oils. we don't have a soup single buy on the super majors. pay attention to the long-term

moving average. that's a 150-month moving average. i don't know if anyone even looks at nap you held back in the financial crisis sxur testing again today. also testing this little up trend that we've drawn from the 2009 low. a break below that long-term moving average, which has never occurred in the history of this index, would set you up for further down side to 1,000. maybe even 800. that's 10%, 25% down side. however, when we look at a stock like chevron here, big integrated, you can see this is that 150-month moving average once again. this is a 30-year chart. a 30-year trend line. we continue to hug that very long-term moving average. in fact, we've only closed below the 150-month one time back here in 2003, and you can see what happens. so once again you can see how important it is to hold this level. of course the reason it actually gives you no confidence that we will. but it's an important line just the same. and finally we look at exxon. that's your other big boy. twice the size of chevron. the picture is equally grim. you can see this breakdown from

this distributive top. you've taken out the 200-week nofg average. we could see a return to the $70 level. that brings you back to the 2011 low. so once again in the big integrateds you want to steer clear here until we see further signs of a bottom. but that chevron chart is somewhat interesting given that long-term support. that 30-year support, if you will. >> so at what point would you say to pull the trigger on a chevron? do we wait for oil prices to stabilize? what exactly are we looking for, rich? >> i think certainly you would rather be late than early in this trade. being early on anything crude or energy-related has been a widowmaker of a trade. it's not the way to make money. we're still constructive on the u.s., europe, japan. there are far better places to have your money here. you could see a situation where the market collects itself and moves higher. but once again, energy underperforms on a relative basis and even within energy the integrateds underperform energy. so once again, this is a place to avoid. don't fall in love with those big dividends. that could be a trap. >> rich, thank you. rich ross, evercore isi.

what would you do here? >> i agree that exxon is broken. we talked about that. people have been trying to pick bottoms in terms of valuation. it has not worked. clearly it made a four-year low today. $70 rich pointed out. that was the low we bounced off from in 2011. i think it goes there. i don't know what an 8% move lower in exxon means for crude oil, but i do think it means lower. the refiners didn't trade well today. i still think there are tail winds there. and you have to mention freeport-mcmoran below ten bucks. i mentioned it. there's an energy component there. >> two years ago they went from all copper to place a big bet on the stuff that's clearly -- >> exxonmobil buying that gas. >> xto. >> exactly. >> but back on the refiners as long as crude is weak this is the safe place to play. everyone who's done this has done phenomenally well. it's the smart call. but you're getting into a place where you have some seasonal marginal weakness, you have some places where refinis are starting to do some maintenance you have a case where you have a winter gas bill. i don't think the refiners trade is a runaway. you have to look at valuations.

i would be fading this big run you've had bays think if anything the minute crude starts to rally a bit these things are going to rally in sympathy. >> target out with a big beat but could it spell more trouble for rival walmart? we'll tell what you traders are looking at. plus something very strange happened today to the price of airline tickets and it may lead to tough days ahead for the airline stocks. we've got the details. and later happy birthday google. the tech titan celebrating 11 years since going public. but if you had to own apple or google for the next 11 years, which would you pick? a surprising answer from the traders when "fast money" retur returns.

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welcome back to "fast money." shares of l brands moving lower in the after hours. dom. >> we've got l brands down by p a percent. just around 37,000 shares have traded so far. the company behind victoria's secret and bath & bodyworks operators came in with second quarter earnings that were in line with estimates. sales, though, however, missed. the company sees current quarter results also below some analysts' expectations. however, it raised its yearly guidance. so a very mixed picture overall. same-store sales did increase by about 4%. on balance, though, the verdict

is down 1%, 37,000 shares of volume, melissa. back over to you guys. >> thank you, dom chu. this is one that's had a pretty decent 12-month return, 28%. >> it's had a bit of a pullback also over the last couple months. and in fact -- i think it's just a victim of its own succs. the valuation is rich. relative to itself it's rich. the international growth i think is underestimated but again it's a time when people are not rewarding that international growth model. in fact they may be vilifying. guy adami clearly not buying enough scented candles. which is strange because i know he's a big fan. >> first of all, we'll talk about l brands. if you want scented candles, folks, you go to henry vendhe. l which is not a publicly traded company but they have the best -- this is not joe malone. henry -- it's trade school, by the way. >> i get joe malone. >> then you've got l brands on the -- i think tim makes a good point. this stock has traded off about 15%. i do think, though, it's still rich at 19 times forward earnings. i'd let this thing sift out. it can trade down to 75. >> sticking are retail, target

and lowe's kicking off our top trades tonight, target beating estimates on both the top and bottom lines. comp store sales rose 2.4%. the company also raising earnings expectations for the year. while lowe's wasn't quite as bright. missing on earnings expectations while reporting a rise in quarterly sales as demand for appliances and outdoor power equipment rose. guy. >> kudos to mike kuo on frir, talked about the potential for walmart to trade lower. it did. what target did today was show you how lousy walmart was yesterday. the same way lowe's showed you how good home depot was. target would have been a lot higher but for the broader market today. i think target is mine. i think home depot is fine. i think you own both, maybe potentially selling the other two. >> yesterday you said walmart over target. i was impressed. target came out with some very good numbers in a market where competitors clearly didn't do nearly as well. that was impressive. feels like they do have some good momentum there.

i think -- yeah. >> lowe's was interesting because some of the read-throughs was whipool up today. mohawk hit a new 52-week high. >> that was the most interesting part. itb and names like that. the housing sector as tim mentioned at the top of the show actually is doing quite well. maybe it's low rates, maybe people are thinking that the fed is going to raise rates and they want to get in. but in general that's the sector you want to be in in this market. >> next up here big move lower for solar stocks. sunedison falling by 7%. r.w. baird cutting the price 20 bucks from 35. karen's been looking through the company's filing for the convertible found smirnting items and also the calendar providers -- >> first of all it was groundhog day that sunedison reported down a lot. >> groundhog day was in february. >> it started then. it's continuing every day until now. so no matter what this company seems to do to try to address, some of the fears the market

has, they did that convert two days ago which seems like a lifetime ago now. from 500 they sized it up to 650. the market does not seem to care they are addressing liquidity every day. that convert is actually a pretty good piece of paper for the buyer. it's a convert. so it converts the stock at 1762 or so. there is protection in case there's a takeover in the short term and you give up that dividend. but you know, looking at how liquid this stock has become, counting from two days after they reported earnings if you were to say all right, somebody's learning the story, they want to be aggressive, they want to own stock, they would have until friday if they went over 5%. this friday. to announce the 13 deep position. wouldn't shock me at all if there were somebody in there. this stock has lost well over half its market cap, $6 billion. it's almost a bite size $4.5 billion equity market cap right now. it wouldn't shock me at all if someone were to be out there. i don't know that to be the

case. but they're trying to do everything they can and yet the market doesn't seem to care. >> whole sector as we said has been getting taken down. solar city, goldman out with a note they hay meeting with the cfo and the thing they have to emphasize because of what's going on with sunedison is their capital and funding is something wide open to them still. they did an abs deal and the demand is massive. they indicate they can do much larger deals. they're implicated by sunedison who i'm not sure should be implicated but anyway. and then what's gone on with oil. solar city at 48 bucks starts to look interesting. >> once again oil. >> next up, biogen rbc out with a note detailing five reasons to buy biogen now. a few key highlights here. the drug pipeline remains strong. and also there's up side potentially with its alzheimer's drug. sentiment's already bearish. it could become a much more talked about m&a candidate whether the company likes it or not. tim.

>> you have a case here where these guys are a candidate but the whole space is still a function of overall liquidity in the sector. we talked about the specialty drugs in the pipelines. and to me the most interesting place to play is really in the pharma, the pure pharma plays. we talked about pfizer. we talked about merck. there you have valuation up side. to me i just think part of this is a total market play on biogen. part of this is a lot of capital. b.k. talks about the investment tourism, et cetera. i would rather go into a pure pharma play. >> biogen, though, july 24th it flushed out down to 299 and change. let's call it 300. on 16 million shares. that was the same low as a previous low it made months earlier. i think against 300. so i'm sort of in accord with this monote. 300 you can own the stock. the risk-reward sets up as well as it's had in quite? time in biogen. >> still ahead, is apple music having a problem keeping its users? we'll tell you what the tech titan told cnbc earlier today. you're watching cnbc. first in business worldwide. in the meantime here's what else is coming up on "fast."

>> announcer: airfares are coming down. but that could be bad news for the airline stocks. we'll tell you what it is that has the entire space feeling the turbulence. plus trouble for commodities could bring quite the polish to the gold trade. a look at just how far the yellow metal could run and how to play the looming bounce. all that and more ahead on "fast."

welcome back to "fast money." oil falling today and falling just as quickly, airfares. cnbc's phil lebeau's got the details. phil. >> melissa, the july cpi data came out and a lot of people who looked at the airfare data and said whoa, a decline of 5.6%, that is the steepest monthly decline in the cpi data when it looks at airfare in 20 years. part of the reason? the ripple effect from low jet fuel prices. the cpi data is collected from the fares posted on sabre and other reservation systems. and you have the major carriers becoming much more aggressive saying we can afford to be a little more competitive with some of the low-cost carriers, therefore they're dropping their fares just a little bit.

but one thing to keep in mind as you look at these stocks, melissa, the cpi data is only on the reservation fares on those systems. it does not calculate baggage fees, reservation change fees, ancillary revenue. if you calculate that in, it's a far different equation. airfares alone, yes, they are dropping. but overall revenue for the airlines continues to go up because of ancillary fees. >> i think a lot of people out there will say to you i haven't seen any drop in airline fares. so are there certain routes and parts of the country we should be looking at? because some people are saying what are you looking at, phil? >> it depends. you guys aren't seeing much of it because it's so competitive in new york city and you have so many different carriers in new york city offering flights that it's hard to really notice when things drop as far as airfares. and keep in mind the average airfare, domestic airfare is about $388. a drop of 5% is what, $9 or $18. it's not a whole lot.

so unless you're watching day by day you're not going to really notice that much of a change. >> so fares drop 5%. what do ancillary revenues go up by? >> there's no direct correlation. but we know that ancillary revenues have been growing by something like 5% to 7% depending on which category you look at. the airlines have not maxed out in that arena yet. they are continuing to drive their revenue growth there. that's really where they're making their profits. >> phil, good to see you. thank you. phil lebeau i think somewhere in denver, colorado. that's good news, actually. the fare dropping, that seems concerning. >> today there was a "wall street journal" article. the virgin atlantic ceo said the skepticism seems way out of control, valuations are not reasonable, they're cheap. he may be right. but in airlines people have gotten burned so many times it's shoot first, ask questions later. that said-i still think jetblue 11 1/2 times forward earnings decent size short interest, yes, it was down today but it's been a nice trajectory to the up

side. i still think you can hide out in jblu. >> i think the consensus is so bearish on airlines in terms of the prasm, passenger revenue per available seat miles. mel makes me do this every time. and finally i get it. if t. was 150 bips better than june. the july numbers are getting better. the second half looks like it's improving. the capacity discipline is in the airlines. be clear. and valuations for a lot of these guys, price targets in the mid 50s if you want to take delta but i think you fade it here. they should have traded better. 48's a big level on delta to get through and i think you trade from 42 then back up to 48. >> coming up don't look now but gold is up over 5% fritz lows and some traders are betting on bigger gains to come. we'll tell you what it is that's got gold bugs so excited. plus would you rather -- >> love that. >> own apple for the next 11 years? we asked traders and their responses may surprise you. a very special edition of "would you rather" after the break. mornings.

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the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. welcome back to "fast money." a wild swing in the markets today. the dow sinking triple digits before making a big comeback and erasing those losses. as the street tried to interpret the fed minutes but then falling again and ultimately ending the day down 162 points.

here's what's coming up in the second half of "fast money." the chairman of microsoft making a big bet in one huge growth area. he joins us to explain why he's shelling out his own cash for this one. plus is the gold rally here to stay? we'll tell you why traders are betting on more gains for gold sooner than you think. that's later this hour. we start here with apple. a new report from research company music watch says trial customers are ditching apple music at a breakneck pace but apple is firing back saying the report's got it all wrong. cnbc's josh lipton spoke directly to apple. he's got the details out in san francisco. josh? >> well, melissa, it did start with music watch saying that among people who had tried apple music nearly 50% have bailed on it. that is an alarming headline, no doubt. and it's unusual for apple to respond to a press report. but the company did this time, saying that the number of people that have defected is actually far, far lower. i did speak to the company, and apple tells me that of the users who have signed up for that apple music trial nearly 80%

continue to use the service. remember, earlier this month apple said 11 million people had signed up for apple music. the question of course is how many of those users apple is going to convert into paying subscribers once this free trial period ends? mark mulligan, a music industry analyst, says apple could have some 8 million paying subscribers by year end. if that's true that means apple would already be the number 2 streaming subscription service provider behind spotify. melissa, back to you. >> and josh, give us the latest on apple tv at this point. >> so tim cook, melissa, knows besides your core, your office, you probably spent most of your time on that couch in your living room and that's why apple tv is so important. mark german of 9 to 5-5 mac was on cnbc this morning. german is saying a new apple tv will be unveiled at the company's event in september. he said that new set-top box is going to be slimmer, include support for siri, more storage, a faster processor.

apple has sold 25 million apple tvs. piper's gene munster says the apple tv in and of itself isn't going to make a big financial impact here, not at 69 bucks a pop, but the device strategically important according to munster because it's one more way to build loyalty among apple customers and maybe attract new users to that ios platform, melissa. >> josh lipton out in san francisco. thank you. so what's the -- is september 9th really shaping up to be a huge catalyst? it sounds like there's going to be more than we thought initially. >> yeah, but is it enough? is it enough to move the needle? that's the question with all these new products. this comes back to the fact that apple is this one-trick pony where they are a phone company and that's it. they can have all these other things, they're great, but in terms of moving the needle i'm skeptical. >> guy? >> i think the reversal the other day was very interesting. traded down to 109, reversed hard to 116. it's basically held those levels. but if the broader market gets in the way, apple won't be spared. i still think you can trade it from the long side against the lows we saw last week. >> i actually hate that apple is

responding to those kind of things. >> once upon a time they didn't respond. >> would never respond. i think it's somewhat beneath them and why did they choose this? it makes me think oh, it might be true. >> interesting. >> i don't know. josh brought up that they don't normally respond, which is what i thought. it's unusual. >> right now apple is a total market proxy stock. you look at the chart over the last four months it's trading totally like the s&p. i think we really would be starting to get up to the holiday quarter and i think we'll start to get some guidance. i think the stock is directionless. i don't think september 9th is anything in the stock price or anything you should be playing for. i don't think apple tv is a game changer now. i still think it's about hardware. even know i'm excited about smart home and am pay and apple music and all these things that have yet to move the needle. they are exciting things about the future of apple. >> sticking with technology, google celebrating a big anniversary today. 11 years as a public company. since its ipo google is up a whopping 1500% but even more impressive is apple, which has gained more than 5,000% in the same time frame. looking at it to the next 11

years, i know that's hard, guys, which company a better bet for the long run? let's go around the horn. guy, kick it off. >> 11 years from now i'll be about 88. who even knows -- >> hopefully apple will be making hearing aids. thank you. >> nicely done. >> look, i think you've got to go with google. i think google's very hard to be replicated. i worry apple could be commoditized 11 years from now. ruth porat is exactly what google needed at the right time. they straightened themselves out only financial side of things. last quarter was outstanding. i think google the next 11 years over apple absolutely. >> karen. >> i agree with him. i like google. for a couple of reasons. i like the model of billions of tinier transactions over the model of a more lumpy, granted millions of transactions in apple products but to me i'd rather have that kind of cash flow stream. they both have a ton of cash. they both have flent management. but the google model -- plus you do have the moonshots at google. you have some at apple. but maybe they do buy another

youtube kind of thing. for all those reasons i like it. i own twice as much google as i own apple. >> b.k. >> for me i'm going to agree with these guys. it's completely google. when you look at those numbers where apple's up 5,000%, that shows you if you put all your eggs in one basket and you watch that basket real carefully you can make a ton of cash. but now that that game might be over for them that's my concern-s that it's saturated. the smartphone market is saturated. i'd rather go with google which has multiple revenue streams and haf shown to be a much better venture capitalist if you will when you're talking about the buy of youtube and all these other things they're doing. for a longer-term play i'd much ratherer be in google. >> tim, lone wolf or are you going with the consensus here? zblim often a lone wolf but not on this topic. it has to be google. let me try to address some parts of what happened. in terms of digital ad and media google may be one of the most important companies in the world along with facebook right now. and no one knows what the value of that market is for them yet. if you think about what the multiples should do and compare

it to what happened to amazon when they separated web services from the core and you started to get a sense of how they were valuing these things differently so, what they started to do with google alphabet and as guy said with ruth pourate, you're going to get more transparency. they should be rewarded. this stock traded 22, 23 times forward multiple in 2013. we should at least get there and we should get higher based on what these other companies have given based upon the move they made last week. definitely google. >> everybody says google. >> you know what that means. >> sell it. >> here's one more. a bonus round of "row rather" for the next 11 years. google or amazon. go. >> wow. that's a good mix-up. a amazon over google. google over apple. >> google. >> google. >> google. i mean, amazon's got a ton of competition. >> she threw that out there. i didn't know where it came from. she caught me off guard. >> fast money. >> we'll tell you the one thing that soars after a big commodity

slide. tech giant hewlett-packard reporting earnings tomorrow. we hear from one top analyst who's already calling the quarter uninspiring. so what is it that has him so uninspired? we'll tell you right after this.

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the commodity rout continues but there's one commodity that may come away as the big winner. cnbc's deidre bosa is in vancouver with the details. hi, deidre. >> reporter: hey, melissa. if history is any indication, that winner may be gold, but of course as always timing is important here. we looked at the dbc etf which is a commodities tracking etf as a proxy for commodities and we worked to crunch the numbers with our big data analytics partner kensho. we asked the question what happens when the etf, the dbc, falls 10-plus percent in one month. by the way, it just hit that mark in today's session. it fell more than 1% bringing its total losses over the last month to nearly 11%. we found out that one week after such a plunge gold has rebounded, trading positive more than 80% of the time and returning about 1% on average. now, 1% may not sound like a whole lot to cheer but do consider that other commodities such as natural gas, oil, and copper, they're more of a coin

toss. they trade positive only about 50% of the time and on average they actually continue to lose ground. in terms of protecting your portfolio when commodities are falling the dollar index has been a great bet historically. when the dbc etf is falling 10% or more in a single month, the dollar index has traded positive every single time. so 12 out of the 12 instances that we were able to draw on since 2005. on average it returns more than 4%. so melissa, that is one way that you can play the commodities slowdown or at least get in on a rebound and take a look at gold. back over to you. >> dooed rie bosa, thank you. b.k., your trade in gold right now. >> unfortunately i wasn't in it today. i sold -- i had a gold gdx call spread that i sold out of last week. which is fine. i think gold can go a little bit higher. if i'm right i bought euro today, sold the dollar, which means i think the dollar's getting weaker. if that's the case gold probably goes to 1240 which would be the top of the trend line. in the long run i still think gold goes to 800, though. >> once upon a time people may

not realize mr. guy adami was a player in the gold market. >> player. playa. >> back in the day. >> before it was on the periodic table of the elements. >> hearing aid. periodic -- this is fantastic. >> we talked about 1044 being the potential for a bottom. that's where india bought 200 tons of gold from the imf ain '09. seemingly that has happened. august 10g9 deutschebank upgrade the space, all the miners. gdx has bounced. is this a bounce in a bear market or is it the beginning of something i? think it's the beginning of something. >> other potential capitulation moment might have been -- i think this was 2 1/2 weeks ago. when china gave their gold holdings and there was a fat finger that night. you saw gold gap down almost 5% over the course of a slow sunday night and you walked in monday and said what happened to gold. since that point it's been slowly rebounding. i don't think gold's move has anything into do with the fed expectation. gold has not been responsive to anything gold is supposedly supposed to be responsive to, which also includes greece,

which includes china imploding. their stock market you haven't seen gold necessarily rally on that. i think this is a gold market, bear market rally. and i would be scared of this. but the best miners are the ones with the best balance sheets. newmont is the best. >> while commodities have been volt one tech company has had a rough ride as well. shares of hewlett-packard down 30% this year. and according to one analyst the stock could struggle when the company reports earnings tomorrow after the bell. brian white of cantor fitzgerald gave us the lowdown on what he'll be watching from hp. take a listen. >> brian white with cantor fitzgerald for "fast money's" earnings edge. hp reports third quarter results tomorrow after the close. three things that we're looking for. number one is trends in the pc and printer market. both areas in my view are being commoditized. pc had a very rough july in the supply chain. it will be interesting to hear data points out of that area. second point is enterprise group. there's a dogfight going on as companies push into the cloud. markets overseas are weakening considerably. it will be interesting to see how far they're trading in the

enterprise group outside the u.s. market. and third point would be their earnings guidance for the fourth quarter and their cash flow update for the year. i do think the outlook will be a bit soft for the fourth quarter given all the trends that we've discussed. at the end of the day this is a stock that i think will remain challenged. fundamentals will remain tough. as there's a lot of competition in this market. this is bryan white, cantor fitzgerald, with "fast money's" earnings edge. >> we play would you rather. this time it's "would you bother." bother with hewlett-packard? >> probably not here. i think you're going to get a second chance, though, on the split. essentially i think it will create value. people already priced that in. i think they're going to price it in again. i think people also overdo pcs. they're about 10% of the business. so if i look at it i think people probably priced in a lot of bad news. it's interesting but not here. >> that's the thing. a lot of bad news has been priced in. the sentiment's awful in this name. away contrarian play i think you could buy it into earnings. high-risk trade but i think you could buy it into earnings. >> would you bother? >> right?

>> big gaming night. >> back to gold here. the yellow metal had the options market buzzing today. mike kuo's in austin with all the action. mike. >> 1 1/2 times the average daily options volume in gld, which is the gold etf. this etf's up about 4% from the lows that it hit earlier this month on august 5th. but today we saw a lot of bullish activity. maybe the first time we're seeing basically options traders betting on a rebound and they were buying the september 4th 112 calls. those are the weeklies that expire the first week in september. they were spending only about 20 cents for those, making a bet gld could be up another 4% in about two weeks. >> thanks for, that mike. for more "options action" check out the full show 5:30 p.m. eastern time on friday. still ahead, the chairman of microsoft sees big potential in one cloud-based company. he'll be here to tell us what that company is. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. much more "fast money" straight ahead. here at td ameritrade, they work hard.

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wonderful, crazy mornings. we figure you probably don't have time to wait on hold. that's why at xfinity we're hard at work, building new apps like this one that lets you choose a time for us to call you. so instead of waiting on hold, we'll call you when things are just as wonderful... [phone rings] but a little less crazy. we're doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. because we should fit into your life. not the other way around. mary thompson checking out shares of net app. they are higher in the after-hours trading session. the data storage equipment maker's first quarter results beating on the top and bottom line. the company also saying it

expects to complete an overhaul that will cut 500 jobs by the end of the third quarter. the firm estimating that restructuring to be between 25 to 35 million dollars. the company also issuing very strong third quarter guidance that was well above analysts' estimates and you can see its shares up over 6% in the after-hours session. melissa, back to you. >> mary thompson, thank you. guy adami. >> it makes more than a 52-week low. you have to ask yourself is this the turn or is this just another rally in a bear market? i think it's the latter. not to say it can't trade another 5% higher from where it is now but at a certain point you have to maid the stock. if i were to look at it just on a chart i think it's 33 bucks. >> if you're the chair of microsoft where are you putting your money? john thompson is the chairman of microsoft and b spichlt. puchlt lsina is the chair of rubric a cloud-based company that john has taken a sizable investment in. we welcome them both. guys, great you have to both. john, i'll kick it off with you. we posed the question why this company? what caught your attention? >> well, in the tech industry as we all know about every seven to

ten years there is an opportunity for an inflection point or a change. in the whole data storage backup and recovery business really hasn't gone through a major change over the last ten years. and so what bipul and his team are doing are amazing, amazing ideas. and a great team. so it was worthy of me putting a little money behind that to see if we can help them in some way. >> and vipul, you have a great -- go ahead. >> what we have done at rubric is look at the cloud companies, the consumer companies, and get inspiration from google and facebook and bring scale technology to enterprise that has not seen any innovation for the last 10, 15 years. we saw a large opportunity to go and change the landscape. >> now, bipul, you have an amazing track record. you're from light-speed ventures and a lot of your team are from in fact facebook and google. i'm wondering here in terms of who you disrupt, who do you

disrupt? because it's interesting that microsoft is in the cloud area. john thompson is the chairman of microsoft. are you in fact also disrupting microsoft? >> so we are -- >> no. >> we are in the backup and recovery space. and if you look at traditional solution provider in this space, cornwald and emc and symantec. and if you look at the technology that is out there in the marketplace they show their age because these things were invented 10, 15, 20 years ago. and what we are doing is like creative destruction, what silicon valley stands for is renewal of this particular market, this particular segment with newer technology from web scale world bringing into the enterprise. >> yeah, another way to think about it is the last disruptive technology shift that occurred in the backup and recovery business was about ten years ago

when comvault entered the marketplace. prior to that emc, symantec, ibm, a host of larger companies had been around for 20 or 30 years doing various backup and recovery procedures, if you will. and so this market is ripe for a change yet one more time. and i think the team and the technology ideas that they have are very much in vogue with this notion of on prim and cloud-based capabilities. i'm quite impressed with what they're doing. >> bipul, where are you in the life cycle of nur company? do you see going public at some point in it's interesting john mentioned comultrabecause that is constantly talked about as a takeover target and here you have the backing of microsoft which is in the cloud business and some people might draw some conclusions there could be a future tie-up between you guys. >> so we have an ambition to build a large public company. this is a very large market. if you look at the backup and recovery market, it's north of

$10 billion market. we started the company about two years ago. we have a product in the market. there's a lot of interest and excitement in the customer base and the ecosystem about what we are doing and how we are changing the landscape and simplified backup and recovery products. so we see that in the next four to five years there's an opportunity to go public and build a long-term large business. >> and john, is that -- >> we should separate -- yeah, you should separate what i do at microsoft with my venture investment portfolio. i probably have 15 or 20 investments in small companies like this one where i think they do represent a change in a powerful, powerful way. but it has nothing to do with microsoft. it's more about my real day job as opposed to my weekend job that i have at microsoft as the chairman there. >> let's talk about your weekend job, john, and that would be as chairman of microsoft.

there's been a lot of concerns lately about tech companies in china, the exposure they have in china. the fed mentioned they believe the china impact is in fact temporary. what are you seeing on the ground in terms of how business is in china? >> well, business in china has been difficult. make no mistake about it. and it has a lot to do with the chinese government and its view of wanting to crack, if you will, these large companies with substantial revenue streams in the country. so it's not just about microsoft. it's about google and a whole host of other large tech companies as well. but business has been tough. and hopefully with the discussions that we're having with the chinese government there is an opportunity to change that in the near future, we hope. >> all right. john and bipul, thanks so much for your time. and john, i hope we get a bigger peek into your investment portfolio. >> anytime. >> thank you. >> thank you guys. >> okay. >> bye. >> all right. what's our trade on -- take your pick. we've got cloud.

we've got microsoft. >> well, if you want to go emc, vmware, those stocks since 2012 have gone up and down but they're effectively exactly where they were four or so years ago. clearly something's awry with those two names specifically. microsoft and b.k. can speak to, this i think he's bullish. i am as well. pretty volatile year from 50 down to 46 now. but the stock seems really resilient for some reason. just feels as if it wants to take the next leg higher. >> you have this upgrade cycle. i don't think personally think from the people i talk to it's going to be anything like the xp upgrade cycle but the stock is trading very well. so you get a decent dividend. it's trading well in an environment that has not been great. i think it could plow through 50. >> they had a very solid quarter. the nokia write down. the guide was lower and they seemed to always guide lower. the stock still seems like it's priced in a lot of good news about change, but it's really more going to be about margins and it's going to be about cloud. and these are things i think are improving and certainly are going to start to move the needles. but the stock has been sideways. i don't see what changed that

trade in the near term. you have to wait for earn togz get some more insight. >> coming up on "mad money" cramer's got two big exclusives. the ceo of series therapeutics, a hot summer ipo that's cooled since the debup then the ceo of home away, in the avacation space competitors like air bnb. meantime, ahead on "fast" a look at what our traders are watching ahead of tomorrow. stay tuned.

china? the market's been on a wild ride. but if you don't have the right viewpoint you may be missing some key signals. i've got them. plus what did you do on your summer vacation? i've got the ceo disrupting the hotel business. "mad money" is next! time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. tim seymour. >> i think you have to be watching oil. we talked about reversal in the refiners. i think you continue to watch that. but again i'm looking at the oil production data which says six weeks in a row oil production is falling in the u.s. i think oil is starting to bottom. >> beakers. >> playing on tim's point, this whole market is trading very much on macro themes and very much on capital flows. so you have to watch the currency markets. i'll be watching the euro because that's your biggest pair against the u.s. dollar. and i think the euro goes higher, dollar goes lower. >> karen. >> drilling down more specific i'm looking at gap. we've hay couple companies call out denim as being something that's -- >> target. >> -- been a lot of strength for back to school. this past quarter i don't think it will be great.

it's more about the outlook. >> love denim. >> love denim. >> ever since tim did his stand-up from mcdonald's, made his own burger, look at this stock. 52-week high today. something's going on. does it get through 103? >> i'm melissa lee. thanks for watching. see you back here tomorrow at my mission is simple -- to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> i'm cramer, welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you money. not just to entertain but teach you and coach you at this tough times. tweet me @jimcramer. i've had enough. tonight i'm taking matters into my own hands and