exposed to interest rates. i think it is going to be a one and done situation. what i'm waiting for, michelle, is to hear what the news is next week and if they take it down hard, i'll be a buyer. if they run it up big, i'll be a seller. >> guys, this has been so much fun this week. i'm on vacation next week. could you tell? i'm already there mentally. that does it for us. "power lunch" begins right now. hello, everybody. are you glad it is finally friday? what a wild week on wall street it has been. despite today's losses though, the dow, the s&p and nasdaq are all actually higher for the week. fed vice chair stan fischer speaking exclusively to cnbc and his comments moving the market. china, the fed, currency wars, oil, a whole lot of uncertainties out there. we have "black swan" author nasin teller to tell us where we are focusen, on the right or wrong things.

if kayla tausche is at the nyse to tell us what's happening on the floor. >> stocks for the dow and s&p are in the red right now. the dow having its nay rowest trading range today since august 18th. the nasdaq has been flirting with the flat line for the last hour. it is just slightly into positive territory. the dow, the s&p and nasdaq though even with today's trade all remain out of correction territory. let's get the trading action at the nyse. bob pisani joins me on the floor. >> michelle's getting ready to go on vacation, a lot of other traders are and very happy to be a somewhat normal august day here. the s&p 500, very narrow trading range. only 13 points. got a little droop in the middle of the day. stan fischer speaking exclusively with steve leisman. some interpret him to be a little more hawkish. i didn't hear it but the markets seemed to react that way. down just a little bit. very narrow trading range, 13, 14-point bottom to the top. volume is heavy but declining.

heavy for august but not heavy for earlier in the week. 3-2 advancing to declining stocks. volatility, basically flat in volatility, but vix still in the mid 20s. widely held names with be fairly flat. reflecting what the overall market is doing. pfizer underperforming just a little bit here. we all have lists of stocks that are heavily shorted. they're mostly in materials and the energy space but some really moving a lot here, chesapeake, oasis, continental resource in the energy group, materials, steel stocks also doing very well. one group having a tough time is interest rate sensitive stocks. lot of talk about the chinese selling treasuries because they need cash to prop up their own currency. i think this has put pressure on some interest-rate sensitive groups. they're to the downside here. the vix, every short in the last two days has been nuked.

when the s&p goes up 2% in 45 minutes at the close, that's a killer if you're short. there was a lot of protection. a lot bought on friday and monday and tuesday and the rally yesterday killed them again. there's not a lot of shorts in the market. the vishx is a lot more stable. i would anticipate we get more days like this, we'll go below 20 but it is still elevated right now. >> bob pisani, we'll get more from you later on this hour. the nasdaq this week's biggest winner up 2.5% this week. it is the only major average that's positive on the year. kate rogers is following all the big movers up there. >> that's right. we just turned slightly green. the nasdaq opened the day in the red. for the week the nasdaq along with the dow and s&p had their biggest monthly drop since may of 2012. nasdaq still higher for the year. the russell 2000 is higher by

more than .5% and by the week higher by one-third, it remains in correction territory. actionvision blizzard one of the biggest gainers on the nasdaq 100, up nearly 6%. the publisher will join the s&p 500 after market close today. facebook another mover today higher by 1% after the ceo mark zuckerberg announced the social network hit the 1 billion mark for the first time. domini chu has a news alert. >> rig counts right now, rising for the sixth straight week here, up one rig only. again one rig to the up side here. the level now stabs at just around 675. it is still down 900 from the same time last year. high-frequency data on rig counts. the price of oil, a lot of things driving that big up side move, up by 7%.

it continues to hover near its highest level so far today, wti. rig counts up to 675 for u.s. oil rigs. >> incredible week for oil. one for the history books. prices building on yesterday's monster rally with wti crude bouncing back 20% from monday's low. jackie deangelis joins us with more from the nymex. >> we just keep making new session highs. $45.68 just moments ago, off of that two cents at that level. moves today after that 10% spike yesterday. from that intraday low that we hit at $37.75 on monday, we are up more than 20%. what's stoking the rally today are the reports saudi ground troops have entered northern yemen to fight the rebels there. that conflict had cooled off for some time and now it appears that it is heating up again. add to that the fact that global equity markets are calmer today,

products are rising as well. rbob expires on monday usually creating volatility here. also watching those storms that could potentially hit the gulf. a lot of factors driving this price up right now. >> thank you so much, jackie deangelis at the nymex. we want to take another look at the markets after federal reserve vice chairman stan fischer spoke exclusively with our steve leisman. his comments actually moved the markets. check out what the dow did. the interview was at 11:30 eastern time. the dow came down pretty sharply. it's come back a little bit since then. it is now down .25%. it had been positive right before stan fischer began speaking. gold actually made quite an intraday move as well. if we can pull up gold what it did after those comments. it had been on the rise all day and it stayed pretty steady. it is now up 1% but you can see it actually started to fall a little bit after his comments. a little bit of a hawkish tone ill f

infiltrating the market. though some disagree a little bit. the dollar also began to soar. here is the point where stan fischer started talking. that is up still .5% on the day. that's a very large intraday move. finally, treasury yields also rallied throughout "power lunch," we'll have key parts of the interview starting with this exchange. >> earlier this week, bill dudley called the case for a september rate hike less compelling. would you agree with him? >> i think it is early to tell in the change in the circumstances which began with the chinese devaluation. it is relatively new and we'll still watching how it unfolds so i wouldn't want to go ahead and decide right now what change -- what the case is, more compelling, less compelling, et cetera. >> i didn't get a chance to

interview bill, so my question to you then is, did you find the case for september previously to be compelling? >> there was a pretty strong case. but it was not a conclusion yet. it was a case. >> not a conclusion yet. just a case. meanwhile, fixed income market is seeing that case to be a very strong one. selling treasuries, you saw that 10-year going up. we'll have more of steve leisman's exclusive and market moving interview with federal reserve vice chairman stan fischer a little bit later on. >> looking forward to it. let's get some insights in the market moves this week from an investing legend. on the cnbc news line, jack vogel, founder of the vanguard group which currently has $3 trillion under asset management. you founded the vanguard group back in 1974. you've been through a lot of

white-nuk it will periods like '87, '97, '2008. there are others, of course. how does now compare? >> well, they're all different. let me slightly correct you while i started vanguard in 19. 4, i came into this business at wellington management company in 1951. i've only been around here about 64, 65 years. something like that. >> touche'. >> i've never like any of these big declines. i've gone through i think three 50% declines. this one is nowhere near that and i don't expect it to get that far, but i find them rather unpleasant. but what's happening now, i think, in this current market -- they're all different. one was greatly overpriced bubble back in 2000. then later on the big mortgage crisis, around 2007. this one is the biggest exercise in sheer unadulterated speculation that i ever have

seen. it's just speculators not speculating on what they think is going to happen. but what they think other speculators think is going to happen. >> well, what do you think is going to happen? how do you think this is going to shake out and what does the individual investor do? because you are always looking out for the little guy, you've always said just try and not look the a the noise, set and forget. >> you're right when you say what is the typical investor going to do. i say don't do something, just stand there. this, too, shall pass. i can't tell you whether the market will be higher or lower a year from now or ten years from now. it's clearly a relatively high-valuation level even now. maybe 16 times, 17 times earning. some time above the long-term norm. it is not above a cheap market. what else do you do? go into the market market? everyone should have a bond

position to protect themself against. kind of unpleasanunpleasantness. i would say the typical investor to do just what i do, and what i do is i'm not happy to be very conservative. i'm getting closer to thinking about protecting what i have than having it grow. so i'm about 50% stocks, 50% bonds. virtually all index. i looked at my portfolio this morning and it's down 1.5% for the year. that's not a time to panic. anyone that has a good balanced portfolio shouldn't be off more than 2% or maybe 3%. there's all this noise. shakespeare told us, full of sound and fury, a tale told by an idiot full of sound and fury signifying nothing. and this speculative binge that we're seeing here with, ma going up 1,000 points, down 500, up

500, has nothing to do with the fundamentals behind the long-term value of equities in particular, which are created by corporations' earnings and dividends an re-investment in the business. i'd say do your best to keep your eye off the headlines. do your best to avoid any kind of stock tix. and certainly do your best to -- not to do any extreme. for example, if you're not persuaded by my argument, don't get out of stocks. but reduce your stock position maybe by 10 percentage points. i wouldn't do that, but it is a cautious approach. >> we have to leave it there. cautious approach sometimes is the best approach, isn't it, jack. thank you so much for joining us. china, the fed, currency wars, oil, yeah, a lot of uncertainties out there we can list. but the "black swan" author tells us what he is seeing in this market. the dow, s&p and nasdaq are

out of correction territory today despite the fact we've been moving in and out of negative territory. but the russell 2000 index remains down nearly 11% from its all-time high. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. don't go away. i take prilosec otc each morning for my frequent heartburn. because it gives me... zero heartburn! prilosec otc. the number 1 doctor-recommended frequent heartburn medicine

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welcome back to "power lunch." some of the headlines moving the market at this hour -- apple losing one of its beats one

radio executives. ian rogers who heads up development for the radio service is stepping down just two months after that service launch. can you see apple shares down by .2%. charles schwab says its website is back online after experiencing outages on the site this morning. the company did not elaborate on the nature of the problem but that stock has climbed out of negative territory to be up by 1.25%. mylan shareholders backing the drugmaker's costly bid for perrigo. meg tirrell will have more on that deal coming up. he advises heads of states, traders on markets and risks. the author of "black swans" joins us for a "power lunch" exclusive. thank you for joining us today. do you think we're headed for a

crisis? and if we are, does the fed have anything left in its tool box to fight it? >> the first thing i have to say, that in my universal colleagues and people i work with, i've been doing hedging for 17 years. in 17 years never seen as much excitement over nothing. never. let me give you a statistic. people say we're below the highs. 99.9% of the time the market will be below the time. between 50% and 80% of the time below the normal index. what we've noticed is people freak out over small moves and looks like there is an absence of marketmakers so we have pockets. and they think it is 1998. they don't have a scale. they don't have the experience to realize -- >> this is just freaking out at the moment. >> 1998 was something completely different. okay? but now that we -- the stock talking about 1998, you need to

realize one thing. that in 1998, interest rates were not 0%. today they are close to 0%. >> if there was any shock, we don't have a way to fight it. >> we have no way. it is like the fed is like a huge army. this very sophisticated equipment. and no munition. >> does that make you, therefore, more confident about klein's ability to nerve gate its way out of what it's in now because at least they have tools? >> china -- china's a robust country. they went through a lot off turmoil in their history. they can force it the population to do things. i would also say that china don't have donald trump. at least not yet. and china has some kind of risk consciousness inside that party. but i think at some point they

have to become central to become more robust. shock in china would yield something vastly different from what we have here. >> are you concerned about the knock-on effects it could have on the treasury market? >> it could be nor of a potential problem in our bond market than say our stock market near term? >> china would not affect us directly, economically. china would be a -- maybe a diversion because they don't buy a lot of goods from here. buy probably less than walmart sells. so drop in demand from china wouldn't be a big deal. what would be a big deal is what we're wednesdaying, saudi arabia having to sell treasuries because people are now running into debt. then they have to liquidate the treasury. that would put more pressure on the treasury market. but let me say something about the fed. these people are very competent. they inherited that big machine without weapons. they realize interest rates at 0% is nothing normal.

there is no question 0% rates would be better than 3%. but how to get to that normal level is very, very tough task. >> a black swan by definition is something we can never predict. but could you make a guess, what would it be? >> i think black swan is something that surprises people who aren't prepared for it. he most people are not prepared for another 2008 from what i see. >> but is that likely? >> i mean in 2007, people thought 2008 could not be likely. i would not -- i would not go about life without making sure that you can survive something like 2008. >> okay. thank you so much for always joining us on cnbc and a "power lunch" exclusive. fascinating discussion. meanwhile, keep on truckin'. we're seeing more and more of

them on american roads. so what sort of an indicator is that about the broader u.s. economy? morgan brennan is live in dallas with that story. morgan? >> reporter: hey, kayla. that's right. don't let the amazing electronics and paint job fool you. trucks like this are the workhorses of the american economy. what this industry is revealing when "power lunch" returns. ♪ if you can't stand the heat, get off the test track. get the mercedes-benz you've been burning for at the summer event, going on now at your authorized mercedes-benz dealer. but hurry, offers end august 31st. share your summer moments in your mercedes-benz with us. no sixth grader's ever sat with but your jansport backpack is permission to park it wherever you please. hey. that's that new gear feeling.

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have pointed to a u.s. recovery gradually picking up momentum. but that strength is also showing up in some less widely followed data points. morgan brennan is in dallas to explain it all. hi there, morgan. >> reporter: hey, mandy. that's right. nearly three-quarters of all freight companies in the u.s. is moved by some kind of truck. out of all the transports, this industry offers the closest read be on the u.s. economy. based on how much one fleet is currently hauling right now, they expect consumer spending to tick up meaningfully coming into the holiday season. >> history's been a bellwether. before we go into recessions and kw we come out of recessions we typically see it beforehand. i think it tells us we don't have to jump off a cliff, that things are steady, they're strong and we think we'll have a vibrant fourth quarter. >> according to avendale

partners, truck tonnage has accurately predicted every single recession and recovery since 1974. the low price of crude oil is somewhat of a double-edged sword. it lowers operating costs and has been fueling consumer demand but it also weighs on demand for industrial goods and raw steelers. one of the other things that could actually pump the brakes on what's overall considered a positive optimistic outlook is if we continue to see the wild swings in the stock market. that's something that many worry could begin to chip away at consumer confidence. >> thanks so much, morgan brennan in dallas. always has the most interesting assignments. gold prices closing right now. up about 1%. let's get to jackie deangelis at the nymex with more behind that trade. >> we are getting a 1% bid, $12 on the session, just sitting

under $1,135. still down more than 2% on the week. today traders are telling me that gold traders believe that this equity stability may be a little -- they're skeptical of it. put it that way. also reports of the saudis sending troops into northern yemen. that's creating a little bit of a safe haven bid here as well. yes, we have a stronger dollar today but on a relative basis. little bit lower. that's why we're able to fight this. >> a check on the bond market right now. first, the 2-year note currently yielding 1 .7%. the 10-year benchmark note currently yielding 2.177%. yields ticked up after stanley fischer's comments. basically because he didn't rule out a september hike. mr. santelli is off on a world reserve vacation. a relatively calm end to what's been a wild and memorable week. we have your game plan for next

week with only the nasdaq positive right now. plus, what are individual investors buying and selling in this volatile market? td ameritrade's ceo knows and he'll join us in a little bit. the next hour has been a major turning point for the market all week. we'll get you the key levels you need to watch heading into the close. "power lunch" will be back in two. like your natural teeth.

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hello, everyone, i'm sue herera. here is your news update for this hour. a virginia teen became the youngest person in the u.s. to be sentenced to prison for supporting isis. the 17-year-old was given 11 years and 4 months in federal prison for are helping a classmate get to syria to join the terror group. he pleaded guilty in june and was charged as an adult. a north carolina police officer who shot and killed an unarmed black man will no longer face charges in the case. the state decided not to retry officer randall kerik after his trial ended in a deadlock last friday. former president george w. bush returning to new orleans

for the tenth anniversary of hurricane katrina. he was vilified for his government's lackluster response to katrina back in 2005. the world tango championship came to a close in buenos aires with a local couple winning the title. look at them go. they swept the boards on the final night of the competition with a flamboyant performance. as a result, they won $4,000 and tickets to paris. wow. that's the cnbc news update this hour. back to you, kayla. i can't believe how good they were. >> wow is right. not for amateurs, that's for sure. let's look at the markets right now. dow had been down as much as 102 points. it climbed into positive territory right before that exclusive interview with stanley fischer. right now it is down 75 points. nasdaq down by .1%. it is faring the best of the major averages but it had been positive just moments ago.

s&p 500 had been mildly losing for most of the session but bob pisani is back here on the floor. what do we make of this trade right now? >> we're sort of flat-lining in the middle of the day, slightly to the downside. given the volatility we've seen recently, this is a very narrow trading range for the s&p 500. essentially 13 points from the high to the low. not far from the low of the day but this is nothing like it's been recently. pfizer's been a little bit underperforming. apple, microsoft, jpmorgan, wells fargo, johnson & johnson, they're all to the downside here. small cap energy, we have seen -- when oil started bouncing yesterday and oil's at $45 right now, some of these small names like triangle, oil services companies like parker, small offshore drillers like

seadrill have been flying for the last day and a half. some are shorted heavily but these stocks have just been destroyed over the last six months or so. we're seeing them bounce back a little bit. speaking of high-volume stuff, look at uso. unfortunately we don't have volume charts here but for the last day and a half -- this is the u.s. oil fund, a basket of futures contracts, huge volume here as people have been panic buying to get back in. that's a three-month chart. >> up 7% on the day. down 24% in just the last three months. bob pisani, here on the floor. amid all the market volatility there are several stocks that have made a remarkable comeback but are we talking about a dead cat bounce? dominic chu, i hope we don't have any dead cats out there. >> sometimes people talk about buying dips or stocks that have just fallen so much in value. you wonder if some of these big pops are due because they have fallen by so much.

the debate will always be there. we screened the s&p 500 for some of the biggest gains we've seen since the close on tuesday when the market kind of bottomed in this near-term move. then looked for the ones that are still negative year to date. in oerdz, chein other words, sh fossil, big pop to the up side. norfolk southern, up 9%. hp up 9%. chevron up 15%. freeport mcmoran up 29%. check this out, if you look at the year to date returns, it is very different. fossil is down 44%. norfolk southern's down 27%. hp is down 30%. chevron down 28% and freeport down 54% even with these gains. the overall picture, sometimes these could be some of those falling knives but next hour we'll look at some of the viable bounces that have led to

year-to-date gains. momentum mixed in with some of those bounces. back to you. stocks currently near session lows. chief equity strategist and senior portfolio manager with matrix asset advisors. phil, you had a year-end 2015 target of 2,350 on the s&p which would imply 18% up side from here. considering all the damage internally and technically that's been done to the stock market, are you maybe wavering on that target? >> that's right. we don't know how quickly the market is going to recover from this technical damage. we're very much sticking to our 2,500 target by the end of calendar year 2016. it is just a question of how long it takes to recover to get back on that track. >> how long do you think it is going to take to recover? >> 2,350 by the end of this year may be aggressive but certainly by the middle of next year and 2,500 by the end of next year is still very much on track pmt u.s. economy is in great shape.

the problem here the last couple of weeks has been concerns about klein. >> do you think it is warranted? >> certainly warranted. the chinese economy is slowing. but just over the last couple of days the chinese government and pboc have taken some action to try to staunch the bleeding here. i think that that action has given the market some confidence and we've recovered half of what we've lost just over the last couple of days. >> jordan, what kind of tarts are you looking at and have you been revising them? >> we don't forecast the market overall. we look at individual companies and their valuations. we expect that this market decline can rapidly reverse. at least for many companies, because of what's happening in the u.s. economy, in the european economy and actually some other international economies as well. when we look at u.s. companies and the u.s. economy, we actually think that growth is reasonable, that the economic underpinnings are solid. so we're using this kind of market disarray to pick and

choose stocks that we like that have solid long-term projects but we're able to get them at a bargain price. >> have you picked up a few of those bargains in the past week hopefully on down days? >> we've been focusing on some stocks that we own and some stock exchange that we have partial positions that we've been able to figure out. one of which is ace, a large property and casualty insurer that's in the midst of buying chubb paand a large deal. we think that deal makes a lot of sense for ace and we do believe the market is not reflecting that. . compounding the decline in the price in ace because of the market decline has created a great entry point. >> jordan, what's your call on energy? last couple of days provided a very big bounce for crude and energy related stocks. did you like them at the bottom? >> we did. we think that $40 crude is unsustainable on b wti. we think that can probably

improve over the next six to nine months. it is going to be volatile. for the iron-cast stock mac stomachs, slumber slay, occidental and devon. the dow and s&p just hit session lows. they just bounced right off of those. peter kos stcosta from empire executions is here to tell us -- what just happened? >> i don't know what just happened but the market is, if you look at the breadth of the market, we were at a 6:5 ratio, now it is getting tighter around tighter as the day goes on. that only tells me as we get later toward the end of the today i i'm not sure what will happen on the close but we'll probably turn into negative on up and down volume. that will mean a much weaker close, go into a much weaker close. >> we should still note that today is much less volatile overall. the average move of 3% in the

last four days. today it is just .5%. >> we actually don't mind this for one day. brokers on the floor love volatility because we make money when it is volatile but it is not bad to take a breather. i think investors enjoy having a breather one day even if the market does end up down 150 points. it's not like it's been so it is not a bad thing. >> i'm sure you don't mind it on a friday in august. >> not at all. >> taking another look at those charts there, we are headed lower as we get closer and closer to the close. the dow is currently down .6%. but it has been a huge week of much bigger swings than .6%. the dow's roller coaster ride, you can see there on the board, it really shows a very well for i. what are individual investors buying and selling in this market? that's straight ahead. as you can see, the dow

currently down 113 points at 16,541 to get back down into correction territory, i think the dow would have to call down to about 16,516. we'll keep watching whether or not we continue to back slide. yy new jansport backpack, a powerful new dell 2-in-1 laptop, and durable new stellar notebooks, so you're walking the halls with varsity level swagger. that's what we call that new gear feeling. you left this on the bus... get it at the place with the experts to get you the right gear. office depot officemax. gear up for school. gear up for great. ♪a one, a two, a three percent cnext.ack♪ there's gotta be a better way to find the right card. creditcards.com lets you compare hundreds of cards to find the one that's right for you. just search, compare, and apply at creditcards.com.

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and the one on the left? uh, looks like it'll be counting cows for awhile. so maybe the same things aren't quite the same. ge software. get connected. get insights. get optimized. right now the dow and s&p just retraced session lows. dow down by 102 points. a key point came moments ago when the s&p 500 broke through a key support level at 1,980. the next level of support -- 72, 73, around there. keepi your eye on s&p 500 for possibly another move downward for the s&p. we are continuing to watch the markets and will bring more to you as we head towards the close. twitter meanwhile annoyanciannoyance

i -- announcing its xh imt to diversifying the company. by 2016 it wants to increase the number of female employees to 35% saying it will help build a better product by reflecting this wide range of its users. twitter stock though down with the overall market, down by .25 pr by .25%. boeing choosing the sign of the 777x jetliner. that's on schedule to deliver the first of its new family by 2020. boeing stock up by .5%. finally, happening this hour -- rebekah brooks returning to news corp. as u.s. chief executive. a surprising move for an executive that was thought to have left the company for good but that stock is up by 1.33%. thank you, kayla. the markets aren't the only ones facing volatility this week. online trading platforms are suffering from glitches as well. just this morning, charles schwab's trading platform had issues and was temporarily unavailable. joining me now, the ceo of td

ameritrade. fred, have you seen any td ameritrade problems, glitches, over the course of this week? >> monday morning the open of the market was very volatile and very active. think as an industry we need to think about that open because i think that open -- hopefully we can do better as that as an individual. a lot of participants had issues and we were one of them. >> how do we do better? >> the markets shouldn't be moving around like that, that quickly. when you think about ge, a pretty stable stock, many off 21% very quickly. think we try to do things to sort off put in circuit breakers and whatnot but that open was definitely very volatile. so we had surges in volumes. many players in the industry had issues. our transaction volumes, not trades, just transactions were up four times normal on the monday, and apartment the peaks of the open there they were up ten times and a couple of our log-in platforms had issues with

that. >> if we talk about what some of your retail investors have been doing on your platforms, a lot of mom and pop investors in the past have been burned especially when they see scary lines in newspapers which doesn't help. but retail investors are much more savvy than they used to be because there are so many great online tools like td ameritrade giving them information and education. so your retail clients were net sellers on friday, into the downturn and net buyers on monday which hopefully was a good trade for them. what were they buying and what were they selling? >> a lot of trades were around the s&p 500. some people were trading on the index. but obviously the biggest one we continue the biggest and most popular stock symbol in our platform is apple. you go with the netflix -- >> it's always apple. >> it's always apple. our clients tend to like apple. but we did see that. my clients seemed to have come through this very well. one of the things that we do is when somebody goes to put in an order on our platform, is it

automatically populates the price as a limit order. you have to change that if you don't want that. that helps ensure better executions that you're not surprised. >> we were speaking with jack bogle a moment ago from vanguard, a guy who's seen it all. you've seen it all, as well. what's your current read on situation and where we're had heed? >> the third-longest up market in history. we were expecting somewhere along the way there was going to be a correction and don't know when or what would cause it but we shouldn't be surprised by that. i think china was an accident waiting to happen. anyone that's been around the industry as long as i have, when a market is up 160% from low to high in one year, when marginal loans are up 30 times in three years, you know you've got a bubble that's going to burst. we had that open. so correction is not surprising. i think from here, a lot of the

uncertainties still remain. you've still got questions about china. the emerging markets, commodities, federal reserve. i think there is still a lot of uncertainty. one of the things i think people ought to talk about is the vix. the vix was average 13 so far this year until friday. in two days it went all the way up to -- closed at 41, peaked at 53. we're still at 26, 27. so there's still a lot of volatility in the market so i think we should expect this continuing. >> a bit of a bumpy ride to come. thank you, fred, so much for coming in today. kayla, down to you at the stock exchange. after hurricane katrina r ravaged the gulf coast ten years ago, there was set to be a rebuilding boom. it was supposed to rescue the area from the costliest disaster in u.s. history but did those predictions prove true? we will have that story straight ahead. heading out to break be with the dow and sitting near session lows.

down .5%. the s&p has come in a little bit toward the flat line. nasdaq for its part down seven points as well. the 2:00 p.m. eastern hour has been a major turning point for the markets all week. at the end of this week you will not want to go anywhere. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. no sixth grader's ever sat with the eighth grade girls. but your jansport backpack is permission to park it wherever you please. hey. that's that new gear feeling. this week, these folders just one cent. office depot officemax. gear up for school. gear up for great.

welcome back to "power lunch." just calling your attention to what's happening with the dow jones industrials, down maybe 86 points at last check here. we're off of our worst levels today but still a down day for the dow overall. we'll keep an eye on that heading towards the closing bell. today there's only one new 52-week high in the s&p 500 index. it also happens to be a new record high here as well, talking about signet jewelers. zale and signet merged in 1997. this company has been on a tear. shares up just about 6% this year. still it is the first time since tuesday that we've seen a new 52-week high in the s&p 500. back over to you. >> i don't know what we can deduce from that about what that trade is in relation to the market but certainly interesting

that signet is moving that much. hurricane katrina ravaged the gulf coast ten years ago. did that decade produce the rebuilding boom that was supposed to follow the costliest disaster in u.s. history? scott cohn covered katrina's aftermath in 2005. he's back in new orleans on the eve of the tenth anniversary. >> reporter: we're back in the lower ninth ward. you can see there is some new construction but that's the exception. a lot more of what you see is this, empty lots where homes once stood and homes that some don't appear to have been touched in ten years. at least after the hurricane touched them. a lot like that. the poverty rate here in the lower ninth ward is about 27% or about twice the national average. but then there are neighborhoods like one not far from here, equally hit by the form and the floods, back and then some with some of the most sought-after property in the area.

at the data center they say this kind of contrast is typical. >> everybody becomes completely uncertain. whatever you thought was true before the disaster about how many people were in a certain place, how many kids needed school, how much aid was needed, how many people were poor and how many people were rich, whatever data or assumptions you had about what a place needed, it is wiped out. >> now on balance, moody's says the economy here is actually very good thanks in large part to all that government investment, including all that flood protection. >> we think the city is economically and fiscally stronger today than it was pre-katrina. that doesn't mean the population's fully recovered, but the economic measures in the city are stronger than pre-katrina. and that demonstrates a very significant recovery. >> but is the region more competitive than it was before the storm? well, no, at least according to

our top states for business rankings. first year was 2007 using post-2006 or right storm numbers. louisiana finished 47th overall. this yeesh -- 45th ranked economy. this year 46th overall with the third. wor worst economy. plunging oil will also play into this as this recovery continues. stocks are near their session lows as we speak. the dow is currently down by 70 points. we were down by about .6% not long ago. just marginally off the lows. as we head out, this is what's moving on the nyse right now. we're back in two minutes. freeport mcmoran another gain of nearly 2%.

no sixth grader's ever sat with the eighth grade girls. but your jansport backpack is permission to park it wherever you please. hey. that's that new gear feeling. this week, these folders just one cent. office depot officemax. gear up for school. gear up for great. a choppy session ton end the week. the dow and s&p hitting their session lows, off slightly but still in the red. let's bring in chris semin tech semineke. welcome to "power lunch." i see your fund focuses specifically on asia and europe and it is up 10% year to date. what are you seeing in terms of

europe versus asia? is europe head and shoulder above asia as an investment right now? >> i think the most attractive smas smas smasht stock market in the world right now is europe. that's for a whole host of regions. after four or five years of earnings downgrades, corporate earnings in europe have controversied and are poised to recover. don't forget euro is weakening. the weak euro is a trailwind corporate europe hasn't enjoyed for over four or five years now. when you wrap that all up with a very supportive central bank which is only six months into quantitative easing, i think you have a really compelling story to be overweight europe right now. that's how we have the ti kref fund. >> what would you suggest to figure out if you can short it? >> i think china is suffering right now from a confluence of

factors. more broadly i think asia is still going through the unwinding of one of the most prolific carry trades we've ever seen. that was funded largely by cheap u.s. interest rates. more recently the chinese have communicated their policy very poorly. they've also tried to restrict capital outflow and the combination of those factors has really damaged credibility and i think has really lost confidence in the eyes of global investors. >> if the carry trade is fueled by low interest rates here, what happens then to this global market when the fed eventually raises interest rates? >> well, i think when the fed does start to raise interest rates it makes that carry trade on asia much more expensive. i think we need to just look around the world right now. we've talked about asia. when you come across the atlantic and look at the u.s. market, the u.s. is effectively been a safe haven for global investors. earnings trajectory has been good but valuation is high.

y i think the u.s. market is arguably overcrowded right now. again that just brings us right back to europe. it's cheaper than the u.s. market. earnings are about to recover. again you have a strong tailwind with regard to a weak euro and let's not forget we're only six months into european qe. in fact i think when it comes to the end of qe in europe in september of 2016, we'll probably get qe2. >> okay. you've certainly made your case for europe. chris, thank you very much. kayla, thank you very much as well. melissa, clearly chris was making his case for european investment opportunities over those of asia. certainly it is not just the china story that's hurting asia. obviously very close trading proximities and currency competitive devaluation. there's also the commodity story which not many people talk about with relation to asia. but indonesia and asia are very much dependent on their commodity exports and they're

being crushed right now because of the falls in so many of the commodity markets. >> absolutely. elsewhere in asia like korea, china is the biggest trading partner there. the commodity story and impact on emerge markets also, in the past week we saw a huge outflow from emerging markets and bank of america, merrill lynch is making point that perhaps we're seeing investment capitulation for that part of the world because it was the largest weekly outflows since january 2008. >> economies like nigeria, brazil, so many of them very commodity dependent. >> as for the markets here, we are down by 6 1/2 points on the s&p 500. it is that time of day whether we have typically seen over the past few days another rollover in the market, the sort of 2:00 p.m. sag a little bit. we are off session lows. straight down to bob pisani on the floor of the new york stock exchange. >> the important thing about today, it is much, much narrower range than we've seen in a long, long time on the s&p 500. only about a 15-point trading range. we've been in 40 and 50-point

trading range in the s&p uncertain moments during the week. by standards we've seen this is a quieter day. trading range is fairly narrow. volume is on heavy side but again for an august day it is heavy but compared to what we saw earlier in the week it is declining. 3:2 advancing to declining. maybe it was a little higher earlier. volatility is still flat but still on the elevated side. still in the high 20s on the vix. sectors, a little bit of defensive names are down a little bit more than the rest of the markets. consumer staples, health care, utilities and telecom and interest rate sensitive have had a tough time the last few days. we've seen a lot of movement in the treasury market as well. the big movement is in energy. i think everyone got a little bit caught on short side on oil. in the last day and a half a big move up, some of the big names rather dramatically. some of the smaller names are up

double digits. >> thank you so much, bob pisani. let's bring in art cashin, always great to speak to you. operations are director at ubs. how do you feel about the markets now this friday afternoon? >> i think next week could be a bit of a problem. historically it is one of the lightest weeks of the year. skeleton crews on desks, kids getting ready to gh back to school, so families trying to squeeze in vacation as much as they can. that being said, it is going to have a lot of opportunities. we'd still be debating about where is the fed going. we're going to have non-farm pay rolls at the end of the week, then into a three-day weekend. there is a lot of potential for volatility in a lightly traded week. >> everybody's focused on jackson hole. looking forward to the fed meeting in mid-september. but cotuld the ecb be a tape of volume? >> we are hearing noise out of the ecb they're very

disappointed with their inflation numbers, not unlike our fed. they almost sounded like they were going to add additional qe before they've even ended this one. that's got a lot of potential for surprises. >> it is 2:00 p.m. now, art. we've tended to see margin calls start to come in around this time and give us some kind of indication on how we might close out. are you seeing anything of that kind today? >> i don't think you'll see much of that, mandy, because with the market closing up, the risk of high-margin calls is diminished. you get that after usually a pretty good down day. that's why we saw it earlier in the week. i don't think we're going to see any sign of that. the only surprise may be the market on close. yesterday that's what bailed us out. it was over 1,000,0004 shares to get on balance. >> we'll see how things shape up as we get closer to that close. let's bring in now some expert guests. john manly, with wells fargo

funds management, james deneegan. thank you both for joining us. how cautious are you, john, feeling at the moment? >> i'm always scared to death. but i think it is going to be fine. i think i may be the only strategist on wall street who didn't call the crash last week. i think that the fundamentals are still pretty good. i think valuations are okay and i don't think the fed is going to tighten any time soon. i have terrible instincts but when i look at things in a structured way, i think it's going to be okay. >> does the first rate even matter really? some people we've spoken to said maybe it would be better for market stanbility to get that first hike out of the way and therefore removing one of the pieces of uncertainty? >> i don't think the first rate hike is going to be tightening. i think the fed will raise rates

as soon as they think they can raise rates without tightening. it could be next month. it could be a while. the point is they're not going to do it prematurely, they'll make sure they are very strong and can get away with it. >> jim, what did you think of stan fischer's interview? you haven't raised rates in nine years, so what's next two weeks of data going to do? what's your take on that? it did seem like it was him saying we are going to wait and see what the data says. >> i think that's true, melissa. i think the employment number next week will give them another data point and i think it will be a good one. i think the fed would certainly have justification to raise rates in september given the economic data we've seen this week, reinvestigation up in gdp and second quarter, good news on personal income, consumer spending here. from an economic standpoint certainly the fundamentals are sound and continue to improve.

given all the market volatility they may take a pass in september. october is -- brings in to the equation here but certainly before the end of the year. it is a coin flip i think at this point on september. but justification is there particularly with a positive employment number at the end of next week. >> if your portfolio isn't necessarily positioned, jim, for a right rise, what should you be doing about it now? it does seem like you may not have missed the boat, for instance, on financials which is now one of the worst performing sectors year to date? >> you certainly got another chance here with the market correction we saw this past week on financials. with the prospects of rising rates i think that is an important sector. certainly the health care sector continues to be a positive one here. you continue to look at your fixed income portfolio, reduce duration against the prospects of rising rates and improving economic conditions. but those are things you'd look at. certainly after a correction from almost 46 months without a

10% correction, investors are realizing again what risk is in the market and it is an opportunity for them to re-evaluate what their risk profile is and reposition their ff portfolios accordingly so they can withstand -- it is going to be a volatile month. congress comes back into session. we're going to have budget resolution talks by end he of the month. so opportunities for more volatility before we settle out here. >> so much for a lazy summer trading. strap yourselves in. john and jim, thank you very much for joining us today. thank you. oil, pushing higher again today. adding to yesterday's 10% gain, right now crude is trading well above $44 a barrel. $45.34 is the trade there, up 6.5%. oil has climbed 20% from its monday intraday low of $37.75. the october contract for brent is also rallying in today's session. remember, the oil market closes in just about 25 minutes. we will bring you the closing

price the moment it happens. we've seen some monster moves in the market this week but there have been five stocks in particular that have really been standouts. dom chu, what are the names of those five? >> last hour we told you about a lot of these stocks that have made big gains since the closing lows on tuesday. last hour we told you about those still negative year it date so maybe these are just bounces in the longer-term down trend. these ones here are positive now year to date. not only have they bounced a lot over the past few days since the recent market lows but they have avenue also shown strong relative strength on more medium term momentum. first, monster energy. hot stock over the past few years, arguably since the dotcom era. those shares up about 4% since the lows we staubach on tuesday. m masco, up 6% over the past few days. auto zone, buy those car paurrt

put them in your own car, up 6%. hasbro up 6% as well. google, up 8%. one of the more popular names out there. year to date gains, still pretty impressive. despite big gains we've seen, now we're also up 27% year to date. masco positive, 4%. hasbro up 36%. monster up 27%. google up 24%. investors not only look at big bounces that they've seen but also maybe some other momentum indicators especially year to date and one-year gains for medium and longer-term trends. back over to you. the dow was down triple digits just about a half-hour ago. now we're down just about 39 points. the nasdaq is in the green. the s&p 500 basically on the flat line. it looks like we are levitating a little bit into the close. this should be an interesting close here. small caps, russell 2000, higher

by .66%. euro, the big reaction off the back of the stan fischer interview with steve leisman earlier, yo e is heuro is hitti one-week low against the u.s. dollar. check out what's happening to oil. crude soaring again today as we head into the energy close. keep it right here. you're watching cnbc, we're first in business worldwide.

let's get another check on what's happening with the dow. remember, this is about the time

of the day when we have started to see some particularly good and big swings in the market. right now we're currently sitting at 16,605. we're down by .3%, down by 50 points. to get back into correction territory we'd have to fall down to 16,516. that is the number to watch on the downside. but hopefully we'll build back up to the up side. we'll have to wait and see. let's get you caught up on stock headlines on our radar at this hour. splunk reporting an earnings beat and raising guidance. sales in the most recent quarter were up 46% compared to a year earlier. not helping the stock which is down by over 4%. facebook hitting a big monster and saying 1 billion users have logged into the social network site. on monday is the very first time facebook has cracked that 1 billion number. up 1% today. activision blizzard and

united continental will merge. they're both up by over 6% each. it's been ten years since hurricane katrina flooded 80% of new orleans destroying the electric grid and plunging the city into darkness. over the past decade new orleans based utility provider entergy has been working on a stronger grid. i want to ask you about your forecast for energy prices in your business. when it comes to natural gas prices, that seems to be the most critical aspect to your business according to analysts as that really determines prices for wholesale power prices. what are your forecasts for nat gas at this point and whether or not we're going to see any sustained recovery in wholesale power prices? >> well, we do see a bullish point of view on natural gas. not extremely bullish or wildly bullish but we do think there is some support for prices to be

ooh little bit higher in the longer term. i will say that as that relates to our wholesale business which is less than 15% of our earnings, higher gas prices are better because that does push power prices higher because in the markets we operate -- new york, new england primarily -- natural gas is the fuel on the margin. however, in our utility business in the gulf south, the industrial renaissance that we are seeing is driven in large part by low natural gas prices. that's a real benefit for our business and the growth we are seeing down here. >> you are seeing benefit because they're having this sort of debate about whether or not lower energy prices overall will actually help consumers help businesses spur economic activity. you are seeing that play out in your southeastern business? >> absolutely. low natural gas prices, particularly competing against brent, oil prices worldwide, is a really big driver of what we've been seeing in the markets down here in the gulf south.

we've got a significant amount of manufacturing activity ongoing. steel mills. ethylene production. lng export terminals. all multi-billion dollar investments that are under construction. natural gas is a big input to many of those products as is lent. in the gulf south we use a significant amount of natural gas as our fuel source down here. as far ars thes the utility goe we're seeing a significant amount of industrial gulfrowth along the gulf south. we should see 5% sales growth in our industrial markets. in the wholesale markets, a little bit of a depressing situation depresses prices but again that's less than 15% of our earnings. >> i want to talk to you about a new project you've got in new orleans, a solar project. you plan to install 4,000 solar panels and also incorporate battery storage technology there. i wonder what this says, if anything, about your feeling as

to where solar prices are going to be for power when it comes to cost per kilowatt hour and how that compares. in louisiana, average kilowatt on the commercial side is 8 cents per kilowatt hour. >> yes. we benefit from really low electricity prices as it is. so currently solar is kind of marginal as it relates to what it is worth for us versus some higher priced markets that you see in california, certainly hawaii, new york and other places. we are putting in a 1 mega watt solar project in new orleans with battery storage. exciting part is to see how it interacts with the grid particularly when we put the storage in there. as you know one of the major issues we have with all renewables is their intermittancy. they aren't dispatchable the way a gas fired plans is for example. that ability to store

electricity which is the big issue with renewables will be something we're really interested to figure out how do we incorporate that into the grid so we don't have reliability issues and we make sure we get the best deal for our customers. >> i want to ask you about katrina, of course. where were you, leo, when katrina hit, what did you learn from that experience and how is entergy, the grid, different today? >> yes. well, i was in new orleans until we put in place our business continuity plant which involved having different people go to different parts outside of the city. as you know, our headquarters are right next to the super dome. i ended up in little rock. that was my assigned position, i was chief financial officer at the time. we got reports on the ground while communications were in place. then we had to watch some of it on tv like other people. we have prepositioned our folks outside of the storm areas. we know how to restore power and get them back in. certainly katrina was unlike

anything we had ever seen. the flooding of the city in particular was difficult for to us get around and all of the things we saw going on. our employees can a fabulous job. we had over 1.1 million customers in mississippi and louisiana without power because of katrina. as you know, the 190,000 customers we have in the new orleans area, from was the massive flooding there. within 42 days we got all the power bark on to people who could take power. but at that point even we still had 123,000 of that 190,000 in new orleans who couldn't take service because their homes had been destroyed. today we've put $1 billion into the system since then to be able to harden the system. all poles south of i-10 for example would withstand 140, 150-mile-an-hour winds. we've put structures higher, for example, substations so they don't flood in the same way. we've taken i.t. infrastructure, instead of having our major data

center in the city of new orleans, it is now a dual data center situation in little rock and jackson, mississippi. we've taken some of our operations that have critical machinery and put them north of lake pontchartrain which is 25, 30 miles north of the city. we've done a lot of work to make sure we are even better prepared than we were then. communications is another issue. communications not only amongst ourselves that are trying toic ma you are shoe that we get our power on as fast as possible but also with our customers. a lot of web based tools and the like that really weren't available to us in 2005. we've made a lot of progress, a lot of money and a lot more resilient system. >> leo, thank you for your time. ceo of entergy. amazing it's been ten years. >> i believe the name katrina has not been given to a louisiana baby zips the year 2006. let's get another check on what's happening in the market. nasdaq is holding very marginally in positive territory. the dow is only down by .2% now. that's about 42 points. the s&p 500 is also down just a

smidgen, by three points. up next, a big new twist in the ongoing drama in the drug world. you are watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. >> announcer: the cnbc real-time exchange market snapshot is spob sored is by interactive brokers.

little more than 90 minutes left into the trading week. take a check on the nasdaq here, just about at the flat line, down by four points. 4,808 is our level right now. among most active here, activision blizzard, intel, and shares of apple. mylan is one big step closer to acquiring its big rival perrigo. >> what happened this morning is mylan shareholders voted in favor of this deal with perrigo. it is a $33 billion deal. two-thirds of the votes cast were in favor. that accounts for more than half of mylan's shares outstanding. next step is to mylan to start a tender offer to perrigo

shareholders which it needs to do by september 14th. perrigo for its part has continued to say this deal undervalues it and they are confident that their shareholders will not tender the amount necessary. recently, interestingly, mylan lowered the threshold of the amount of perrigo shares that needed to be tendered from 80% to 50%. more than half of perrigo shares need to be tendered in order for this to keep going. analysts expect now perrigo might do some defensive maneuvers potentially pursuing an m&a of its own. all eyes right now are on what perrigo is going to do next. by the way, meg didn't get the dress memo there. final oil trades are crossing along the week. we are paring gains just a little bit right now but an unprecedented week for oil, about a 20% pop. we'll talk about the action that

we saw over the last two days and what you can expect next week. stay with "power lunch."

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here is your cnbc news update at this hour. a former senior at a new hampshire prep school has been acquitted by a jury of felony rape charges but convicted of three misdemeanor sex charges regarding a 15-year-old freshman. the 19-year-old weeped after the verdict was read. more than 250 my grants died at sea trying to cross the mediterranean to italy. a boat packed with mostly african mygrants sank off the libyan coast last night. about 200 people were rescued. the victims were trapped in the ship's hold. crews demolishing a local cvs in baltimore that was set on fire duringing r inin inriots i during april hoped to rebuild by the end of the year. another cvs in baltimore was damaged but it being renovated. sales of bottled water on track to pass soda in the next two years according to forecasts by beverage marketing. bottled water sales volume grew

7% in the u.s. last year. that's the cnbc news update this hour. back to you, melissa. >> think of all those plastic bottles in the landfills. >> i know. that's the other issue. oil rallying for the second straight day. j jackie deangelis is at the nymex. >> crude closing today up. for the total week looking at a gain of almost 20% for wti since the session low on monday $37.75. a lot of volatility in this trade. short covering today coming on the back of that report that saudi arabia has sent troops into northern yemen. this is what i'll tell you to think about for next week. when events like this happen and nobody can predict when they do, then send the market a little bit into volatility and can send the market wild in fact. traders have seen this before. they weren't necessarily seeing it coming but we could see prices go higher from here depending on how this shakes

out. >> thank you very much, jackie deangelis. domini chu has a "market flash." >> watching shares of ariad pharmaceuticals, soaring on the heels of a bloomberg report that said a drugmaker -- baxalta is said to be in talks to buy a drugmaker that was then unnamed. we are now hearing from bloomberg reports they were going after ariad pharmaceuticals. those shares soaring on the heels of that particular report. trying to come up with more details here but again the story right now, the reason ariad shares are up on heavier than average volume is due to this story saying that baxalta is said to be in talks to possibly buy ariad pharmaceuticals. for now, that's the reason for the move higher in ariad. >> massive spike. thank you for that. back to the markets in

general. value picks for your portfolio in this market, president of chase investment council and portfolio manager of two chase growth funds, peter, great to see you again. first a very macro question because next week will be another light week in terms of staffing. a lot off traders and market pants pan participants will still be off. >> thank you for having me on. volatility will be the order of the day but at least next week we'll focus a little bit more on u.s. data rather than what's going on in china. >> what does that mean in terms of how the market will trade, do you think? >> i think it will be volatile. i do. we don't know what that employment number is going to be next week. then we'll get endless discussion on what the fed will do with interest rates and for the next month or so i think we're just in for volatile weeks. >> over the past week i understand you've bought no new

stocks but you have added to a few existing positions. what are they? >> we added to danaher, hca holdings and paychex. virtually all of their business is done in the united states so you don't have any overseas economic worries to think about when you buy those stocks. their valuations fell into ranges that we considered attractive, especially for a long-term holder. in the case of paychex, a 3.7% yield. in the case of the others, you had companies trading for cash flow multiples two and three points below what they were trading for two weeks ago. >> peter, thank you very much for joining us. p enjoy your weekend.

i'm sure a lot of people out there are quite relieved that it is friday already. >> i am, mandy. metals and mining stocks bouncing back today. katie stockton, gina sanchez, katie, first what are charts telling us? >> when you look at the metals and mining etf, gdx, it was a nice rally, about 24% off of its low. yet the relief rally followed a big break down. it was a breakdown below support not only at the 2014 low but also at the 2008 low. that's a testament to the long-term down trend. when you look at that move within the broader context, gdx has been trending lower really for years and it doesn't really show any early signs of reversing that trend especially with gold meeting resistance after its own relief rally this month. >> in line with katie's analysis, would buying these stocks be essentially buying a falling knife at this point, catching a falling knife? >> i do think this is catching a falling knife.

there are some reasons for that short-term bounce. obviously china's rate cut put -- finally put a little bit of floor under the chinese stock market and concerns around china but those concerns are long-term. to be honest, there's an enormous stockpile-up happening in copper. china consumes 40% of the world's copper around 50% of the world's aluminum. that stockpile-up is an indication of chinese weakness. that's kind of a circular argue. . but weakness in china does lead to weakness in copper. so i think that this the downward trend there is pretty solid. we have heard that there might be some cuts and some major copper producers and that might help prices but that's short term. the long term is down. >> thank you, gina and katie. tra tradenation.cnbc.com. we will three points off of the session lows. dow down by .5%.

a decline of 76 points. big intraday move on comments of the vice chair, stanley fischer. we're going live to jackson hole with more on what he said and why the markets are reacting to it when "power lunch" returns. >> announcer: and now the lating from tradingnation.cnbc.com and a word from our sponsor. the gillette mach 3 turbo

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ibm analytics from the internet of things is making energy smarter every day. . welcome back to "power lunch." shares of big lots are sharply higher, the company reporting better than expected earnings and sales. the stock up by nearly 16%. b and g foods reportingly near a deal to acquire green giant. smith & wesson rising after reporting better than expected earnings. that stock is up 87% so far this year, including the 11% ss enjoying today. markets moving today on comments from the vice chair of the fed, stanley fischer.

here's what he said to steve leisman at the fed summit in jackson hole, wyoming. >> near fed president bill dudley called the case for a september rate hike less compelling. would you agree with him in. >> i think it is early to tell. i think the change in the circumstances which began with the chinese devaluation is relatively new and we're still watching how it unfolds. so i wouldn't want to go ahead and decide right now what the case is more compelling, less compelling, et cetera. >>. >> i didn't get a chance to interview bill, so my question to you then is, did you find the case for september previously to be compelling? >> there was a pretty strong case. but it was not a conclusion yet. it was a case. >> stan, whether we had a chance

to chat in february, you were fairly blunt, as sometimes you are, said it's time to raise rates. >> i said that? >> you said that. i can get you the quotes. but my questions is you wouldn't disagree. do you still feel that way? >> we're heading in that direction. what's happening in particular with the labor markets and we'll have to see if that continues when we get the data for next week. has been impressive and the economy is returning to normal. we're not certain we're there yet. >> wouldn't you think there would be an overwhelming case, one way or the other, that you would be sure and confident that, look, there's this unimpeachable case that it is time to go forward. >> when the skas overwhelming, if you wait that long, you'll be waiting too long. >> so it's always a bit of a confidence -- >> there's always uncertainty and we just have to recognize that we're beginning a process

that we anticipate, whether we do it, will be relatively slow and that the first move, presumably, will be from zero to 25 basis points, to 25 to 50. we're not moving from a wonderfully extremely expansive monetary policy to a tight one. we've been adjusting slightly and we'll probably wait a while before doing something else. >> steve leisman, that was a great interview. i think you made the exact right point. if you don't know by now, what are the next two weeks going to tell you and what does that say about how tenuous this case could be if two weeks can actually change the outcome? >> i think when i hear stan talk, it is a close call. it is always going to be a close call to do the first one. but that little bit of information he gave you at the

very end, kudos to the producer who cut that bit of sound right there. because when he did say was, when we go, it is going to be a little bit of time until we do something else, which means that next rate hike. i don't believe we've had that on the record from an official before, the idea there might be this extended pause in between. that's an important piece of information that at least stan is thinking that way. i agree it should be a more definitive case, but i think governor fischer's response which was that, look, if we wait until we're 100% sure, then it is too late. >> i think it's also telling he said when we go we're going to go from 0 to 25. there is no notion there's somewhere in between so the hike would be 25 basis points. i think some people were saying maybe half -- you might go half of that. so that's off the table, sounds like. >> just to be clear, i thought people might misunderstand it when he said it. i did until he said the whole thing. what he said was go from 0 to 25, to 25 to 50.

what they're going to do is set a range. people need to kind of get used to this idea. who knows? maybe they need to get used to it in two weeks. but the fed will have a floor and a ceiling because they don't know if they fully control the fed funds rate right now because of all the excess reserve sloshing around the system. so they're going to give you a range. right now the funds rate is 0 but it trades around 12. add 25, it puts you to 37. 37 1/2 is right in the mid point of 25 to 50. that's about the highest math i'm able to do with you. >> in jackson hole with a beautiful backdrop. steve, it was interesting to open the door and say market volatility will certainly impact timing of the rate hikes. did he say volatility up or down? we've seen wild swings down and wild swings up. the swings continue to be wildly up, we still have volatility, and also impact hikes. you think? >> so if i could just back off your question a little bit. i did ask stan very

specifically, does he see the recent market volatility connected to the federal reserve? he sees it more or less connected to what's happening in china, the devaluation there. the fed doesn't really see this as directly connected to what they are doing. they do expect some volatility and i have been thinking a lot about your question. volatility means up and down. it doesn't mean one direction or the other. i think they expect the market to react to it. i think there's some downside risk to the market that the federal reserve is willing to accept some volatility from what they are going to do. i sort of felt like if they got off with that 10% correction, which we've come back from, by the way, quite a bit, i think they'd have felt they got off cheap there. they understand there's some amount of the market valuation that's tied up to their low interest rates. and that the idea of a hike may bring some of the shine off of markets. which is why -- i hope i can impress people -- they are looking tots relook to it the real economy.

where gdp and jobs are. if you have economic growth, then the shine that comes off the market matters a lot less. >> right. steve, thank you. steve leisman from jackson hole. let's try and put some of those comments from fischer into the context of how it moved the market because it really did, guys. look here behind me on the telestrator, you see an intraday chart of the dow. as he was speaking around 11:30, the index peaked into positive territory there. little green peak there. that was only very briefly before it fell right after 11:30 eastern as he was speaking. very similar story for the nasdaq which had been moving higher as well. then immediately turned negative. you can see there the peak, then dipped into negative territory there. sort of oscillated in and out and currently we are just marginally higher by eight points. also take a look at the yield on the 10-year note. sharp leg higher. we got to 2.18% there.

which is where we are currently sitting. also a very pronounced move in the dollar index. all of this happening right around 11:30 a.m. eastern time. dlarn dec dollar index currently sitting at 96.11. that's basically how as he was speaking and as the market was interpreting what he was saying, whether it was dovish or hawkish. it clearly seems to be more on the hawkish side how the market was interpreting it. over to you. look at the em, emerging market etf, down 8% in the past month. is now the time to invest? we'll get ideas for best places around the world for your money. big oil stocks, on the back of the big move we are seeing in the price of crude today. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide.

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welcome back to "power lunch." i'm julia boorstin. twitter shares reversing course and trading lower after being up 1.5% earlier today. this after hitting an all-time

low of $21 on monday. this roller coaster comes ahead of a twitter board meeting thursday. selecting a permanent ceo will be the hot topic, though it is unclear if there will be a vote on twitter's next ceo. jack dorsey is still the lead contender, though the board is grappling with the fact he is still ceo of square. they are talking about chief revenue officer adam bain. if dorsey takes the top job they would like to give bain an standed role and title. the other big topic is the product revamp coming up. there will be plenty of questions about whether twitter's changes in the works will be enough. >> thank you. julia boa julia boorstin. emerging markets etf down nearly 20%. could that signal a buying opportunity overseas? john, great to have you with us. there is a notion floating

around that because we've seen massive outflows from em funds in the latest week, actually the biggest week of outflows since january 2008, that could signal a contrarian buy signal. are you in the camp this could be a sign of capitulation in the em? >> it could well be. the markets seemed to overreact to this situation. many people calling it a comparison to the asian crisis of 1997. the circumstances are really extremely different from that period. i was investing through that period. this situation is a lot less problematic than before. with this major sell down which has brought, especially asian emerging markets down to quite attractive valuations in many countries, it could well be at least a temporary bottom. >> what countries are you talking about? you're implying they are oversold and perhaps makes them a buy. are these trading partners of china and therefore, the

concerns are about a chinese slowdown and the impact on a south korea? >> yes, in general i would say the currencies around the region have fallen along with the chinese currency which i couldn't say is necessarily justified. i've got countries that don't have any commodity exposure like the philippines that might look quite good on the three to six month view. korea and taiwan are tech-oriented. you have to follow the technology cycle to figure out whether you want onto invest in those two countries. another country we like is india. we think that country will benefit greatly from lower commodity prices. domestic demand story there is quite strong. and china. we don't think the story is over intermediate term. we still have investments there. >> we'll leave it there. thank you for your advice, john

vale. markets bouncing off their session lows. we are teeing you up for the final hour next. we'll check back in with art cashin. dow down by 50 points. a number. ery auto s but not every insurance company understands the life behind it. those who have served our nation. have earned the very best service in return. ♪ usaa. we know what it means to serve. get an auto insurance quote and see why 92% of our members plan to stay for life. if an electric toothbrush was going to clean better than a manual. he said sure... but don't get just any one. get one inspired by dentists. with a round brush head. go pro with oral-b. oral-b's rounded brush head cups your teeth to break up plaque, and rotates to sweep it away.

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i've got two reasons to take that's why i take meta. meta is clinically proven to help lower cholesterol. try meta today. and for a tasty heart healthy snack, try a meta health bar. can a a subconscious. mind? a knack for predicting the future. reflexes faster than the speed of thought. can a business have a spirit? can a business have a soul? can a business be...alive? more on this potential deal. >> we can confirm baxalta made

an approach to ariad. we know that ariad did reject an initial offer from baxalta. it's not inconceivable this deal could happen. they are fending off a $30 million attempt from shia. they are looking to replace one of the founders of the company. they are close to potentially naming a successor. they said they would do that by the end of the year. >> sounds like this is a defensive measure. >> potentially. bloomberg is reporting maybe a $2 billion deal. it's hard to say that would fend off a $30 billion one. >> thank you. let's bring back in art cashin. as we approach the final hour of trading here, how are you feeling now? >> as i said it was unlikely we would see margin calls. the interest on market on close orders is exceptionally light. that could change but it doesn't

look like they are going to do much of anything. it feels like they almost want to glide to an unchanged close. the last hour can bring surprises. >> are you willing to call the close when you say unchanged? do you think we can get back to positive territory? >> i think the dow looks like it wants to float in and close there. the final hour can be very volatile. don't take that to the bank yet. >> next week, what it's biggest thing people are watching apart from the employment report? >> i think that and the fact we keep an eye on europe. i think we have an ecb meeting. they are concerned about inflation. it will be lightly attended so can be very volatile. >> as you mentioned, guiding into the close, nasdaq higher by 0.2%. art, our thanks to you. have a great weekend. take a check on shares of freeport-mcmoran. this saw a big pop yesterday and cost-cutting measures. carl icahn has a stake in the

company. we have the analyst who upgraded the stock because of carl icahn. we'll get his take on the stock and what he sees ahead for freeport-mcmoran. mandy, great working with you. >> as always, melissa. have a great show later this afternoon. thanks for watching "power "closing bell" starts right now. welcome to the "closing bell." what a week. i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. >> i'm simon hobbs in for bill griffeth this friday afternoon. >> the final hour of a volatile week for markets. we've seen major rallies, major reversals. we'll see how this whip saw market wraps up. >> we have money managers who say this is a great buying opportunity. others who say trouble is just getting started. we'll have both sides for you coming up. >> history shows the volatility may not be