ou for joining me on "closing bell." that does it for us now. "fast money" is coming up in moments. melissa lee, what's on tap? >> the analyst who upgraded freeport-mcmoran because of carl icahn. >> ah yes. have a great weekend, everybody. >> thank, you too. >> over to you guys. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq marketsite overlooking new york city's times square i'm melissa lee. our traders on the desk are steve grasso david seaburg, brian kelly, and guy adami. tonight on "fast" the great rate debate. the federal reserve hasn't raised rates in nine years. so will they or won't they come next month? no need to faers, we've got the top stocks to buy if they don't and to buy if they do. plus one firm upgrading freeport-mcmoran solely on carl icahn's involvement. so what is this man crush all about? the analyst behind that call is here to tell us. but first, a historic week for stocks coming to a close on a high note. here's what's crazy. not only did all three indices finish the week higher but crude finished the week up almost 12% for its best week since 2009. so is crude oil now signaling the all clear for stocks? guy, what do you make of it?

>> there might abe lot of signals for all clear-u i don't think crude is one of them. if crude were to double from here and go to 90 go to 100%, it would still be down about 18% or so from last fall. so let's just keep things in perspective here. yes, it was a powerful move to the up side but i don't think it's giving us the all-clear. what may be giving us the all-clear is the fact that again, like in october we traded down to this 1830 level or so in the s&p and bounced extraordinarily violently. now i think it's up to the longs to prove themselves. i think we absolutely have to close above 2050 or so. levels that steve and i talked about a couple weeks ago. support becomes resistance on the up side. i don't think it's over by any stretch of the imagination. but what a great week. if you're bullish, this just empowered you once again. >> i get geopolitical played a role in the spike we saw today but could it also be a sign that perhaps people were overly counting in the fears of a global slowdown. down, global growth slowdown and now they come to realize maybe

we overshot to the other side? >> sure. and i guess the most overplayed dynamic of the week slash couple of maybe months has been these deleveraging or trying to unwind the trade. and if you try to unwind this trade the most overused word gamma. morgan stanley put out a piece today saying that oil basically has this gamma dine muk -- >> what does that mean? >> gamma is the degree of delta, which is only going to make you more confused -- >> what is this telling you? >> because mexico -- i brought it up a couple days ago. mexico hedged their entire 2016 production at $49. >> okay. >> that means that the option-related plays on oil become a magnet to the $49 level in wti. we're at 45. probably goes to 49 and that's your lid. >> i see. seaburg. >> i look at today and see a lot of the really just nasty underperforming names, the real questionable names within energy completely outperformed. and that's a reason for nap because there's a risk off trade occurring. people that were long the high

yield short the equity are covering. they're covering the equity and they're getting ready to come out of the high yield trade. the reason why it's coming off, there's a stock called halcyon there, was some news about funding that came out today, jpmorgan reduced their funding from basically 900 million to 850 million. there was expectations for that to be much lower. it scared the heck out of the people that are positioned this way. so you saw the equities, especially the underperformers, really pick up their heads. >> so we're seeing then a short covering, right? that's what we're seeing in oil, some of these beaten down energy names. so it's hard to really get any time of economic signal. i tend to be a little bit more with guy. you've got to see oil trade higher for a long period of time. but also let's remember, part of the reason why oil was down so much was also because of a strong dollar and we started to get a strong dollar today as well. i'm not sure that crude is the sign to say everything's okay. in fact i would say it's probably not and it's probably creating some kind of a bull trap. but i would think over the next 30 days 60 days we can trade sideways to higher and then you have to reevaluate. >> and i'm not claiming to be an

expert in this and i'm certain there's an explanation that i don't know. but the ovx, the crude oil volatility index, is still north of 50 and it was higher on the day. now again, i'm certain there's some reason why, but typically into a weekend when the commodity or the underlying rallies you would have seen the exact opposite. i'm sure somebody will explain it on twitter and tell me how ignorant i am in terms of these things. but it is something to watch for next week. >> meantime let's talk about the markets overall because we did see waves of selling earlier this week. investors pulled record amounts of money from stocks. take a look at this. a whopping $29.5 billion pulled from equity mutual and exchange traded funds on tuesday. investors fled to cash with a massive $22 billion in inflows. and as for emerging markets a record $10.5 billion in outflows this week. the largest amount since january of 2008. bank of america connects the dots here and says this is a sign of investor capitulation that actually the flows out of e.m. signal a tentative buying opportunity. do you see that buying opportunity?

do you think we get it zm. >> i think when you're talking about emerging markets absolutely. that tends to work in this particular place. and not only that let's just look at the difference between an eem and spy. at the lows or it's broken through the lows or brazil something like that. so sentiment is very weak. you get this capitulation move. if i had a choice between spy and eem i'd rather be long eem and short spy. i think that's the better trade over the next six months. >> self-imposed would you rather? >> good job. >> as opposed to the equity markets, the sign people are going to cash, they got scared. is that a good sign? >> i don't know if it's a good sign because i've been sitting in cash for a while waiting for this pullback and i think it knocks investor confidence. look at when we had that original flash crash years ago. it knocked -- i don't think those people ever got back in the market. i think these things shake people. and i don't think they're one-day events. i think they take months to play out, quarters to play out, sometimes years to play out. and i think it's a negative for

the overall market. >> i look at it and say it's a positive for the overall market. the people that were shaken out of this tape and watched essentially a five-year bull rally and are still watching it at some point are going to get in. that's when you get really worried about the upside. that's a sell signal to me essentially. that's the capitulation. that's when the scared that are sitting in the sidelines that haven't put money into the market, when they start to jump back in and chase it, that's when you see the acceleration, that's when i'm a seller. >> but at the same time morgan stanley reported i think it was on monday their busiest day in their wealth management in a long time. which would suggest that people are -- people were waiting and came in and bought the dip. and i can just tell you from anecdotally -- >> or selling -- >> no i think they were buying. right. so it doesn't necessarily square with these numbers but i would say there's plenty of people out there that are looking for that opportunity. you heard a lot of people talking about did i miss my chance on monday. i don't think you did. >> certainly a crazy week for the s&p 500. ending the week higher by just about a percent. 386, what are the levels we

should be watching right now? >> what a week it was this week. right? everyone's asking you how do i know when the market's safe to get back in? everything that we just tried to cover originally at the top of the show. this is a chart we're familiar with. we've been looking at it for the last week or so. here's the major problem. if you were to draw this back there's a major trend line that goes from here all the way out. it actually goes back to 2011 if this chart was a little bit bigger. the problem is when we broke this level down to the down side in october we didn't break that trend line. this is the worrisome event here, is that we did break it this time. so everyone wants to know we went down here but where do we start, do we climb back up or do we dip back down? so you have no metrics to look at this because we're in no man's land. this is how you make the metrics. this is the high. this is the low. the fibonacci retracements from here, your first level to pop to was 1930. your second level was 1970

let's call it. here's where we popped, everything looked like we were in good shape. is that a buy signal? the answer is this is where it sucks the most amount of bullish people back into the market. where do you want to sell the market? where do these things line up? you want to sell the market 1985 basically all the way up to 2032. now, i know that's a big move. but this is why it's so dangerous, because this sucks the most amount of bulls in at any one time. it's not safe to be a buyer unfortunately until we break through that level. >> okay. thanks for that, grasso. coming up next an adventurous week in the markets has us ready to play a little choose your own adventure on the back of the fed. the traders lay out their stocks to buy at the fed hike. and 9 stocks to buy if the fed doesn't hike. plus, does steve ballmer have a plan to bust the bundle? reports say the former microsoft ceo is planning to launch his own over-the-top streaming network for clippers games. we'll tell you what it could mean for media stocks. and later, one $5 stock is showing signs of a major breakout. we'll tell you what it is and

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the change in the circumstances which began with the chinese devaluation is relatively new, and we're still watching how it unfolds. so i wouldn't want to go ahead and decide right now what the case is. more compelling, less compelling, et cetera. >> fed vice chairman stanley fischer earlier today on "squawk alley" speaking to our own steve liesman. sfishser said economic data had been impressive and any raise in rates would be a gradual process. the dollar eventually popped on fischer's comments. we ask are we any closer to knowing what the fed will actually decide in september? b.k., i don't know if you can read the tea leaves. he sounded pretty cautious. >> actually the part that really struck me was he mentioned the chinese devaluation, and he said it could have been a big event. we're still waiting to see. because most people afterwards said oh, it's only a couple percent, it's not that big of a deal. clearly it's on the fed's radar. i think if we get a market with volatility that dies down we have the jobs number next

friday, as long as that looks good i think september's still on the table. i don't think they should do it but i think they may, they want to. >> there was acknowledgment as well that market volatility could actually play a role in the fed's decision, which i thought was kind of interesting. especially next week is going to be a light volume week. a lot of people are off. and there's still an ecb meeting next week. >> quickly, bullish comments i'm paraphrasing he said that the committee doesn't like to move in times of heightened market volatility. the volatility that they helped create. i mean that's a soapbox thing. we could talk about that on a one-hour show. but i've got some real estate. but that's preposterous to me. thank you. >> i mean i think they're just dancing around they don't want to raise rates. i think they want to talk about it. they boxed themselves really into a corner at this point. you know my views on this. i don't think the ten-year yield gives them enough buffer to raise rates. i think that growth is the concern. that was the concern this whole entire week. i think it's a lot of double talk, triple talk quadruple talk and i think they shouldn't raise rates.

if they do it's a huge mistake. >> all right. so as a fed decision rate decision looms ever closer, i wanted to play a little game of choose your own adventure and that's the fed decision. what would you buy if the fed raise rates? what would you buy if they don't raise rates? let's go around the horn. let's start off with what would you buy if the fed raises rates in september? seaburg, what would you buy? >> this is a non-consensus trade. i'd buy a housing name like toll brothers. the stock's been beaten up last week. it was actually a call i made on friday. i thought it was a stock that presented some value here. i think there's a real pent-up demand. it's going to force people to get involved here and borrow money if the fed moves. and i know it sounds a little bit backwards here. these are the names that people want to avoid in these scenarios. but i really believe it's going to be very similar to when the fed does move on rates the market's going to take off. when the fed moves on rates, i believe that people are going to go to the banks and actually take out loans. so i think that toll brothers is a stock you want to own. >> on a september hike what would you buy? >> okay. i might have done this game a

little backwards. the way i was looking at it is you're running up to the september hike, right? and you're anticipating that they're going to hike. so most likely financials will do well leading up to it. so my pick was to sell kre as a sell the news type of thing after the hype. putting its positions on after. you want to sell the news. for me because it's most likely going to be a one and done maybe another 25 basis points but all the action's going to take place before the fomc meeting. >> chicago mercantile exchange the cme. if you look at their volume year over year in august was up about 6%. all the instruments that are traded on that exchange will move. people will be forced to trade them. i know the valuation's a little bit rich but i think the cme wins to this. >> now if the fed holds and it does not raise rates in september. grasso. what would you buy? >> if they raise e-trade -- could you skip me? i'm going to go there. and southern if they do not raise. because people are going to be hunting for yield. you can't get yield anywhere in

this environment. yield's just under 5%. it got slaughtered when we had the taper tantrum. at this point you boy southern. trading with a 43 handle. you buy it against a 40 stop and i think you're okay. >> seaburg. >> bristol-myers. 3% yield i think the company's undervalued here. i'd be a buyer for the long term. >> shifting gears here, one name fwhanz a surprise winner among the volatility this week freeport-mcmoran. the company getting a big boost yesterday on a double dose of news. first freeport said it would cut its capital spending copper production employee count for 2016-17 and later in the day activist investor carl icahn revealed in a 13-d filing that he had taken an 8 1/2% stake in freeport. one analyst says that combination could boost the stock price even higher. s&p capital iq's matthew miller upgraded the stock today to a hold from a sell bumped its price target by two bucks to $12 a share. matthew joins us live from denver. matthew, great to have you with us. >> thanks melissa. thanks for having me. >> was carl icahn the tipping point for you? >> that was part of it

definitely. i think that the announcement from freeport mcmoran to cut capital costs and also reduce their copper supply costs by curtailing some of the higher cost production was just as much of an aspect of the decision to upgrade from a sell to a hold. and also increase our target price by $2 to 12. >> what do you think or what do you want carl icahn to do? it does seem that freeport was acknowledging some of the troubles it has facing it and therefore cut its capital spending and et cetera et cetera. what do you think carl's going to do? >> that's a great question. i think that what i see in the stock is really that for me this is as much a call option on the recovery, the long-term recovery in copper prices and oil prices. and i think that carl icahn can accelerate the right-sizing the balance sheet and really some corporate restructuring that might have to take place to get the company where it needs to be

to improve the balance sheet. and i think that's really what's holding the stock back. >> all right matt we're going to leave it there. thanks so much for your time. >> thanks for having me. >> matthew miller. it almost sounded like he was making a call on the commodities in general and icahn was the booster. >> at the end of the show last night one of the things i said was unless uncle carl can get the chinese to buy the end product -- but it's true. you need somebody to buy it. you can clean up the balance sheet and do anything you want but unless there's some end users to buy this stuff it isn't going anywhere. and guess what it's not going to be all that easy to clean up their balance sheet. they have some serious debt problems. >> isn't there chinese restocking? isn't it the season when chinese manufacturers and chinese reserve bureau buys and restocks? >> they could. but we also have to remember that commodity supercycle's over. it's not coming back like it ever was. are there trades in the commodity space? absolutely. is freeport-mcmoran probably one of them? no, not at all. and even the analysts had a $12 price target. we're not that far away from it. it's not like it's a huge recovery in copper. >> no way. no recovery in copper.

they got $20 billion in debt. there's a clause within management to get them out of there. you've got to pay $200 million to them. it's ridiculous. and i tell you what they're the cog in the wheel here. he's not going to be able to oust them. it's a big issue. i'd stay away from the stock. >> okay. you're watching cnbc first in business worldwide. meantime, here's what else is coming up on "fast." >> announcer: what's got this man so excited? ♪ because he could be on the verge of breaking the bundle. and it could mean billions in profits. we'll break down the winners and losers in a special report. and later in the hour the vix just did something extraordinary. and it could be your sign to buy. we'll tell you what it is when "fast money" returns. 're not confident you have complete visibility into your business, it can quickly become the only thing you think about. that's where at&t can help. at&t's innovative solutions connect machines and people... to keep your internet of things in-sync, in real-time.

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former microsoft ceo and owner of the clippers steve ballmer may be taking a step to go outside the cable bundle. julia boorstin's in l.a. with the details. hey, julia. >> hey, melissa. that's right. sources tell us that ballmer, now owner of the los angeles clippers, is considering creating an over-the-top direct to consumer offering as he evaluates his options for the sports rights for the clippers. he's also considering staying with knock or building a larger digital component for those

streaming rights. the clippers games are currently broadcast throughout 5 million homes in the los angeles area through fox regional sports network called prime ticket and they will be through the end of the 2015-2016 season. the media business will be closely watching ballmer's decision about what to do with the clippers' rights considering his wealth of experience with streaming video through microsoft's xbox console. now, sports are of course a valuable driver of both cable ratings and advertising dollars as well as those subscription fees for not only fox but also disney's espn and time warner's turner network. so investors will be watching for signs of whether sports could be taken outside that valuable pay tv bundle. investors will be also weighing the implications for those companies including comcast and time warner cable that sell pay tv bundles as well as broadband access as tv shifts over from the traditional bundle over to streaming. now, fox declined to comment on

this report. a representative for the clippers, though, said that negotiations with fox are ongoing. my sources tell me though melissa, that we're still in the early days of ballmer's decision what to do so it will be quite some time before we hear an official announcement. over to you. >> could it be ballmer's using this as a tactic to get a higher payment from fox? >> i'm sure. look, he wants to make sure he gets the highest payment possible. he knows how to negotiate. and i think that there is more and more value in these digital rights and he's trying to figure out if there's a way he can get a higher payment from fox and maybe also perhaps take some of those games, or some component of that outside the traditional pay tv package and maybe do a digital deal with fox as well. >> all right. julia, thank you. julia boorstin in l.a. for us. >> i'd pay a streaming service just to see him go jumping around. you know i think you made a great point. yeah there you go. $9.95 a month. he'd make a fortune off that.

the point you made about this being a negotiating tactic i think is spot on. that being said this is exactly what frightened people out of disney because when espn came out and said you know advertising sales aren't going as well. this is what's going on in this world. so in terms of like a disney how do you trade something like that you had this -- i think you have to let this wash out before you get back into these names. it might be six months before you get back into them. >> grasso. >> i'm in disney. disney had a nice pop. i thought it was oversold. but i think the most important takeaway from this is just think about the amount of people that he expanded to that could buy it. what happens that could bid on this? what happens if samsung, they have a smart tv hanging off the wall what if they get involved in content? they've never been that. what about sony? they already have. you're not thinking about those names. but i think people are going to start thinking about those names now. >> it speaks to youtube, who's the leader there essentially within the streaming. so google obviously benefits. but i think the timeline here is going to take a really long time for it to pan out. the contract negotiations right now with the clippers are one

thing, but other contracts are five to seven-year delays. so i don't think this is an immediate reaction. i think it's going to play out over a period of time. >> third derivative. you know at&t has tried to do something that's over the top that julia started with. i think everything still continues to point to netflix. the stock was unchanged on the day. in terms of disney you know maybe you saw the capitulation down around 96. 109 was where it stopped on the way down. maybe past support becomes resistance. maybe we can get it another 6% 7% higher from here. >> it's time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. 386. >> we saw the market run up. we saw a lot of outflows. that was inconsistent with the action we actually saw. i want to see end of month rebalancing that goldman talked about with pension funds, see where the market shakes out after that. >> david seaburg. >> carl icahn, activist. i think you should take a look at twitter. this is a name we talked about a lot. i'm a buyer of twitter here because i think somebody like an activist needs to come in and shake this company down. it's ridiculous if they have the ex-ceo or the founder come in and run this company. >> brian kelly.

>> we're still in a macro driven market. you've got to watch the currency markets. in particular the euro. we have an ecb meeting next week. might be a quiet week for some but there's there's a lot of news coming out. >> guy. >> great job navthing this week. not easy to do. hyg comes out. you said it before. that's the tell. i'm watching that. >> that does it for us. catch more "fast money" monday at 5:00 eastern time. "options action" begins right after this break. stay tuned. ♪ ♪ no student's ever been the king of the campus on day one. but you're armed with a roomy new jansport backpack, a powerful new dell 2-in-1 laptop

and durable new stellar notebooks, so you're walking the halls with varsity level swagger. that's what we call that new gear feeling. you left this on the bus... get it at the place with the experts to get you the right gear. office depot officemax. gear up for school. gear up for great.

we are live from the nasdaq marketsite. and carter did anything happen this week? anything we missed? while carter and brian are getting ready, here's what's coming up tonight. >> you won't believe the dream i just had. >> after a volatile week you won't believe which sector traders are suddenly buying. we'll break it down. plus, did you see that? stocks just flashed a major buy sign. we'll tell you what it is. and don't call these guys small fries because they just made a small fortune betting against the russell. and they have a way to make even more. the action begins right now. >> let's get right to the question everybody is asking tonight. after a week like this do you